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12. Communal Resistance and Land Theft Mark Lead up to Guatemala Elections
- Author:
- Gladys Tzul Tzul and Simón Antonio Ramón
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Mass protests against taxation measures and the forced displacement of Indigenous communities set the backdrop for Guatemala’s upcoming presidential elections.
- Topic:
- Elections, Displacement, Protests, Land Rights, and Indigenous
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Guatemala
13. Ecuador Headed for Early Elections After President Dissolves Legislature
- Author:
- Diana Guarnizo Peralta
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- To head off an impeachment vote, Guillermo Lasso chose the nuclear option. Amid polarization and a protracted political stalemate, what comes next remains uncertain.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Crisis, Impeachment, and Guillermo Lasso
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Ecuador
14. Far Right Holds Chile Hostage
- Author:
- Carole Concha Bell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The ultra-conservative Republican Party won a majority on Chile’s new Constitutional Council, delivering a major blow to President Gabriel Boric’s transformative platform.
- Topic:
- Elections, Constitution, Far Right, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Chile
15. Peru: Infinite Protest and Indolent Elites
- Author:
- Nicolás Lynch
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The anti-government protests that erupted in December have a clear political agenda: new elections and the convening of a constituent assembly.
- Topic:
- Elections, Protests, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Peru
16. Political Repression in Cuba Ahead of the 2023 Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Sandra Pellegrini and Ana Marco
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 26 March 2023, voters will elect 470 deputies to Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power, who, in addition to fulfilling legislative functions during their five-year term, will be nominating Cuba’s next head of state. The government has characterized Cuba’s political system as a grassroots democracy, where candidacies to the parliament largely emerge from municipal authorities and are approved by the National Candidate Commission, a body composed of social organizations, such as labor unions and student associations.1 In practice, however, Cuba’s electoral process has been criticized for blocking the opposition’s access to power. Notably, the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba, a platform created by opposition members to promote pluralism, freedom, and human rights, has called voters to boycott the upcoming elections after pro-government supporters reportedly prevented several opposition candidates from running in the November 2022 municipal elections.2
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Repression, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean
17. Turkey’s 2023 General Elections and the Kurdish Question
- Author:
- Ameneh Mehvar and Berk Özlü
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The most consequential elections in Turkey’s recent history are set to be held on 14 May, when Turkish citizens will elect a new president alongside a new parliament. An ideologically disparate coalition of six opposition parties, ranging from secularists, to Islamic conservatives, and Turkish nationalists, have joined forces under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu to unseat Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has been in power for 20 years, initially as prime minister and then as president since 2014.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Minorities, Elections, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
18. The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece
- Author:
- Niki Papadogiannaki and Vicky Yiagopoulou
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Elections in Greece come less than three months after the deadly head-on train collision at Tempe in the north of the country that killed 57 passengers. The incident on 28 February triggered demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, chastising him for initially blaming the collision on “tragic human error.”1 The unrest that followed caused the government to delay announcing the election date, which had been anticipated in April. Due to a new voting law, the elections will be held under a proportional representation system, wherein the leading party needs to secure at least 46% to have a chance to win absolute majority in parliament. However, this percentage has not been reached in the last three decades,2 making a clear victory on 21 May unlikely.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
19. Deadly Rio de Janeiro: Armed Violence and the Civilian Burden
- Author:
- Bhavani Castro and Julia Links Franciotti
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The public security situation in Brazil is complicated, and particularly in Rio de Janeiro state, which has high levels of violence and criminality. The presence of multiple different criminal groups fighting for territory, coupled with abusive government measures to tackle criminal activity, has created a deadly, high-risk environment for civilians in the state. In 2021, Rio de Janeiro registered 27 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, a rate lower than states like Bahia and Ceará but significantly higher than the national average of 22. Rio de Janeiro also ranked first among Brazilian states in the number of deaths recorded during police interventions, with at least 1,356 people reportedly killed.1 In May 2021, for example, a police operation against drug traffickers in the Jacarezinho community in Rio de Janeiro city resulted in 29 reported fatalities. While authorities claimed that all those killed in the operation were linked to criminal groups, witnesses reported that police officers entered civilian houses and carried out extrajudicial executions.2 The Jacarezinho operation was the deadliest single event recorded by ACLED in Brazil in 2021. A year later, in May 2022, military and federal police forces clashed with the Red Command (CV) in the Vila Cruzeiro community in the Penha Complex, resulting in at least 26 reported fatalities, including civilians. These are not isolated incidents, but rather indicative of the increasing lethality of violence in Rio de Janeiro in 2021 and 2022, and the rising threat to civilians.
- Topic:
- Crime, Elections, Violence, Civilians, Militias, Gangs, and Public Security
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Rio de Janeiro
20. Political Violence and the 2023 Nigerian Election
- Author:
- Andrea Carboni and Ladd Serwat
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 25 February 2023, Nigerians will elect a new president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly. Term limit legislation bars President Muhammadu Buhari from running for a third term, and the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Eighteen candidates are vying for the presidency, and at least 4,223 candidates are running for the 469 seats in the National Assembly.1 The presidential frontrunners include Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who has surprisingly led in the pre-election polls. Two weeks after the national election, on 11 March 2023, 28 out of 36 states will also elect a new governor, with 17 incumbent governors reaching their term limits and hence barred from re-running.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria