Publication Year: 3 selected / Topic: Donald Trump

1. The Perfect Storm: Trump and USA 2024

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Donald Trump casts a long shadow over the upcoming presidential – and congressional – elections in the United States. It is a menacing shadow, not only for what the former president could do if he returned to office but also because the political and institutional balances of the United States are threatened by the repercussions of his many legal troubles, the latest of which could even see him excluded from the race for the White House.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2. Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies

Author:: Merve ÖZDEMİRKIRAN-EMBEL, B. Toygar Halistoprak, and Michael Young
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Leadership, Donald Trump, and Political Beliefs
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

3. David Schenker | 'Taking the Edge Off the Middle East' Ep. 1

Author:: Brian Katulis and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today - hosted by MEI VP for Policy Brian Katulis. David Schenker - Director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy - sits down with Brian to discuss the beginnings of his career, his time in the Trump Administration, and the pros and cons of US-MENA policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East

4. After Trump: Enemies, Partisans, and Recovery

Author:: Christopher J. Fettweis
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: CHRISTOPHER J. FETTWEIS discusses what political polarization in the United States has in common with the relationship between the Cold War superpowers. He argues that in both cases the “enemy image” warps perception of the other side and prevents meaningful reconciliation. Applying insight from international relations to U.S. domestic politics, he discusses the pernicious effects of the enemy image and how to overcome it.
Topic:: International Relations, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

5. Biden’s Foreign Policy Casts a Long Shadow

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Upon taking office as US president, Joseph R. Biden vowed he would bring the United States back to the centre of the international stage after the erratic course followed by Donald Trump. One year later, it can hardly be said that he has been successful.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

6. Analysis of U.S. International Economic Policies and its Implications

Author:: Gu Sang Kang
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study analyzes and evaluates the impact of foreign economic policies implemented during the Trump administration's four-year tenure, and aims to predict the direction of international economic policies under the Biden administration launched following the 2020 presidential election. The former President Trump put 'America First' as the slogan of economic policies and imposed import restrictions and tariffs on trading partners based on Sections 201, 232, and 301 of the U.S. trade acts. In addition, the Trump administration strongly promoted renegotiation, claiming that some existing trade agreements had been concluded unfavorably to the U.S. Furthermore, the Trump administration promoted the standardization of digital trade rules and the expansion of digital taxation in order to support the expansion of digital trade. Through the empirical analysis, we find that the Trump administration's tariff measures had a somewhat positive effect on the U.S. industrial employment, but it is difficult to say that the policy effect that President Trump initially expected was achieved as the measures also had a negative effect on industrial production. Moreover, we find that the tax reform had only a short-term effect in reducing the U.S. direct investment to foreign countries. Like the Trump administration, the Biden administration's international economic policy directions are showing strong protectionist perspectives such as maintaining tariffs on Chinese imports and reorganization of the global supply chains centered on the U.S. Based on our analysis, there are three policy implications. First, it is necessary to strengthen digital trade cooperation with middle power countries participating in the WTO e-commerce negotiations along with a detailed analysis and review of the economic impacts. Second, Korea needs to take advantage of the benefits provided by the U.S. federal government and strengthen cooperation in the supply chain based on norms with the U.S. Finally, Korea needs to reach an amicable agreement with the U.S. on trade remedies that have already been applied by raising the need to strengthen its supply chain with the U.S.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Digital Economy, Economic Policy, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, Industry, Protectionism, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

7. Four Years of Profound Change: Immigration Policy during the Trump Presidency

Author:: Jessica Bolter, Emma Israel, and Sarah Pierce
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Over the course of four years, the Trump administration set an unprecedented pace for executive action on immigration, enacting 472 administrative changes that dismantled and reconstructed many elements of the U.S. immigration system. Humanitarian protections were severely diminished. The U.S.-Mexico border became more closed off. Immigration enforcement appeared more random. And legal immigration became out of reach for many. All of this was accomplished nearly exclusively by the executive branch, with sweeping presidential proclamations and executive orders, departmental policy guidance, and hundreds of small, technical adjustments. This report, which concludes a series of MPI reports providing an overview of policies at different points during the Trump administration, chronicles the immigration actions, large and small, that President Donald Trump and his administration took from January 20, 2017, through January 20, 2021. After an overview of the transformation of the U.S. immigration system during this historic period, the report breaks these hundreds of changes down by issue area: the administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic; border and interior enforcement; actions involving the Department of Justice and the immigration court system; the admission of refugees, asylum seekers, and other humanitarian migrants; changes to vetting and visa processes, which involve the State Department, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, and the Department of Labor; and actions involving agencies usually less central to immigration policy discussions. As the authors write, “While it may be possible for subsequent administrations to rescind many of these changes, others cannot simply be unwound.” Many are likely to remain on the books for years to come, with a lasting impact on the U.S. immigration system.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Border Control, Employment, Refugees, Citizenship, Economy, Resettlement, Donald Trump, Asylum, Integration, Deportation, COVID-19, Immigration Policy, Illegal Immigration, and DREAM Act
Political Geography:: United States of America

8. Trump ended WTO dispute settlement. Trade remedies are needed to fix it.

Author:: Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Unhappy with the rulings of the WTO dispute settlement system, which disproportionately targeted US use of trade remedies, the United States ended the entire system in 2019. There are multiple hurdles to agreeing to new terms of trade remedy use and thus potentially restoring some form of binding dispute settlement. First, a change would affect access to policy flexibility by the now large number of users of trade remedies. Second, although China’s exports are the overwhelming target of trade remedies, exporters in other countries increasingly find themselves caught up in trade remedy actions linked to China. Third, critical differences posed by China’s economic model may call for new rules for trade remedies, but no consensus on those rules has emerged. Even some of the most promising reforms have practical limitations, create additional challenges, or may be politically unviable.
Topic:: Economics, Trade, Donald Trump, and WTO
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

9. Biden and Trade at Year One: The Reign of Polite Protectionism

Author:: James Bacchus
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: As a presidential candidate, Joe Biden promised a change from the go‐it‐alone, my‐way‐or‐the‐highway approach to trade policy of Donald Trump. Disappointingly, during the first year of his presidency, Biden has instead largely embraced the failed Trump policy of unilateralism and protectionism in trade. He and his administration have done so politely, without Trump’s bluster and bombast. Yet, the results have been mostly the same: a turn toward more trade protection and managed trade, toward a proposed industrial policy that would add more restrictions on trade, and toward a destructive unilateralism that threatens to continue undermining the multilateral trading system overseen by the World Trade Organization. If Biden continues to pursue this misguided trade policy, American recovery and prosperity are at risk. There is still time—at least three years—for him to end this reign of polite protectionism by framing and pursuing a new trade policy that will benefit all Americans: a policy that will achieve more trade liberalization, stop managed trade, halt trade‐restrictive industrial policy, renew trade multilateralism, and give restored and unflinching support to the international rule of law in trade.
Topic:: Tariffs, Trade, Donald Trump, Protectionism, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

10. State Building in Crisis Governance: Donald Trump and COVID-19

Author:: Nicholas F. Jacobs, Desmond King, and Sidney M. Milkis
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: Nicholas F. Jacobs, Desmond King, and Sidney M. Milkis look at the final year of the Donald Trump presidency, and the administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. They argue that Trump’s actions fit a rationale, partisan strategy endemic to executive-centered partisanship. Consequently, Trump and the Republican Party failed to suffer the repudiation that punished previous presidents when adjudged failed crisis leaders.
Topic:: Governance, Political Science, Crisis Management, Donald Trump, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Republican Party
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

11. Korea's Economic Presence in Iran under Trump and Its Prospects during the Biden Presidency

Author:: Shirzad Azad
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: On July 14, 2015, when Iran and the 5+1 group (the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain, and Germany) ultimately agreed over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Republic of Korea (ROK) was practically one of the top three trade partners of the Persian Gulf country. In early May 2016 and only a few months after the nuclear deal was carried through, the then Korean President, Park Geun-hye, made an official visit to Iran where the two countries vowed to ratchet up their economic relations from roughly $6 billion to more than $18 billion in the years to come. Accompanied by “the largest business delegation in the history of Korean presidential trips,” Park’s high-profile trip to Iran persuaded many interested experts and observers to believe that the East Asian country was really determined to shore up its economic weight in Iran by drawing certain policies relevant to the long-term presence of Korean businesses in the Middle Eastern country (Choi 2016). Despite all those upbeat expectations about the ROK’s future economic and technological role in Iran, however, various data and statistics coming out indicate that over the past several years nearly all well-known Korean brands and products have increasingly lost their market share in the Mideast country to brands and goods supplied by other competitors. As a matter of fact, in the late 1990s and early 2000s the East Asian nation emerged as one of the Persian Gulf country’s top trading partners in the world, outstripping a number of Tehran’s traditional trading partners from the West. And while Korea managed to even expand its economic presence in Iran in the heydays of sundry international sanctions levied against the Middle Eastern country over its contentious nuclear program a couple of years before the JCPOA was eventually agreed in 2015, the ROK has been doing relatively poor in Iran during the past years (Azad 2018). Such lackadaisical performance, epitomized by abandoning the long-established pattern of significant trade in energy with Iran, has critically influenced a sharp decline in the total volume of two-way commerce between the two countries. While the plummeting share of Korean brands and goods in Iranian markets had indubitably something to do with certain policies pursued by the Moon Jae-in-led Korean government, however, the main culprit turned out to be the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May 2018. The crippling sanctions which Washington under Trump subsequently imposed on Iran played a pivotal role in reshaping the scope and size of Korean commercial connections to the Persian Gulf country, though some unprecedented diplomatic and political troubles involving Seoul and Tehran during the past years have also had a lot to do with those punitive economic and financial measures targeting the Iranians. How did then the Koreans respond to those unique circumstances rendered largely by Trump’s approach toward the Persian Gulf country? What are going to be the prospects of a Biden administration’s policy shift for Korea’s economic performance in Iran? This study seeks to shed some light on Trump’s Iran policy with regard to Korea, its repercussions for the East Asian nation’s economic relationship with the Middle Eastern country, and potential solutions to chip away at those impediments under a Democrat administration in Washington led by Joe Biden.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Donald Trump, JCPOA, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Iran, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

12. The Emergence of a Latino Political Ethnicity: 1990 to the Era of Trump

Author:: Alan Yang
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: Alan Yang examines how ordinary U.S. Latinos of different national origin ancestries have become an increasingly cohesive panethnic political group since the time of the 1990 Latino National Political Survey. He argues that this trend towards increasing convergence across national origin has been both reinforced and disrupted on questions related to politically relevant sentiments and perceptions two years into the Trump presidency.
Topic:: Politics, History, Ethnicity, Political Science, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

13. Is the Republican Party Destroying Itself? (And Why It Needs to Reclaim Its Conservative Ideals), Thomas E. Patterson

Author:: Gary Wasserman
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: Coming to terms with Donald Trump, his causes and consequences, is a lively cottage industry. When packaged as predictions of his political demise by two distinguished scholars, the stakes are raised for the authors and, since this review was written before the electoral reckoning, for the reviewer as well. Perhaps Trump’s reckless disregard for traditional boundaries extends to everyone who touches the subject. Both Thomas E. Patterson and Andrew Hacker should be commended for writing obituaries before the body has actually stopped quivering. Given that both books were completed before the unique year of 2020 had struck with all its terrible unpredictable forces, these writers are brave indeed, especially because they are so self-assured in prophesizing a Republican Party decline (Patterson) and Trump’s immediate electoral demise, taking most of his party with him (Hacker). After all, they wrote when the incumbent president could boast of a roaring stock market and economy as well as unquestioned control of a party with a majority of national offices (presidency, Senate, Judiciary), state legislatures (29), and governors (26).
Topic:: Book Review, Political Science, Donald Trump, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

14. Policy or Pique? Trump and the Turn to Great Power Competition

Author:: Deborah Welch Larson
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: DEBORAH WELCH LARSON analyzes Donald Trump’s policy toward China and Russia and the return of great power competition. She argues that Trump’s personalization of foreign policy undermined his trade war with China, and efforts to improve relations with Russia and that the Joe Biden administration will continue to compete but seek cooperation in areas of shared interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Trade Wars, Donald Trump, Strategic Competition, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15. The Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2020: A National Referendum on the Trump Presidency

Author:: Gary C. Jacobson
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: GARY C. JACOBSON discusses the 2020 presidential and congressional elections. He argues that the elections were above all a referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency, which provoked extreme levels of party loyalty, partisan polarization, and partisan animosity in the electorate, as well as the highest voter turnout in more than a century.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Donald Trump, Referendum, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16. A Roundtable on Michael Kimmage, The Abandonment of the West

Author:: Christopher McKnight Nichols, Heather Marie Stur, Brad Simpson, Andy Rotter, and Michael Kimmage
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
Abstract:: The title of this book evokes numerous Donald Trump tweets, statements, and threats over the past five years. It also raises questions: was Trump pro-West or not, and how does his administration and its policies compare to those of his predecessors? Trumpism and the related, inchoate policies of “America First” were firmly positioned against the organizational structures and assumptions of the so-called liberal international order, or rules-based order. Trump’s targets ranged from NATO to the World Health Organization (WHO). From his speech at Trump Tower announcing his run for office to statements we heard during his efforts to contest the results of the 2020 election, Trump promulgated racist, particularist claims about which peoples and groups counted (white ones), which immigrants should be allowed in (northern European) and which should be banned (Muslims, those from “shithole” countries), and what wider heritages they fit into or “good genes” they were blessed with.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Liberal Order, Donald Trump, Anti-Westernism, Rivalry, Clash of Civilizations, and America First
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

17. COVID-19 and the 2020 US presidential election: Did the pandemic cost Donald Trump reelection?

Author:: Marcus Noland and Eva (Yiwen) Zhang
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: By Election Day 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had killed 234,244 Americans and caused the sharpest macroeconomic downturn in US history. Hypothetical calculations using county-level electoral data show that in a “no pandemic” scenario or a scenario in which the severity of the pandemic was mitigated by 30 percent, Donald Trump would have lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote. In the 20 percent mitigation scenario, the electoral vote would have been tied, giving Trump a presumptive victory in the House of Representatives. For the second time in a row (and the third time since 2000), the candidate who lost the popular vote would have been elected president of the United States.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Elections, Donald Trump, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

18. Counterterrorism Under the Trump Administration A Fractured Response to a Diversified Threat

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The administration's achievements were counterbalanced by a striking lack of alignment among three U.S. national security strategies and the discouraging rapid rise of far-right extremism at home. The Trump administration has a mixed record on counterterrorism, overshadowed by troubling trends. On the positive side, it continued the Obama administration’s efforts to defeat the Islamic State on the battlefield while pressuring other jihadist groups in Syria and aggressively pushing back on Iran and its terrorist proxies. But these achievements were counterbalanced by a striking lack of alignment among the U.S. National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Counterterrorism Strategy, hobbling effective policy execution. Still more discouraging has been the rapid rise of far-right extremism at home, a development President Trump has refused to denounce and even stoked. The ninth volume of The Washington Institute’s Counterterrorism Lecture Series, edited by Matthew Levitt, covers the period November 2018 to March 2020. Its pages include the assessments of officials and experts seeking to understand the full scope of the CT challenge and develop sophisticated methods to address it.
Topic:: National Security, Counter-terrorism, Donald Trump, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

19. How the US Does Foresight: The United States’ difficulty in accepting multipolarity

Author:: Mathew Burrows
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: The United States is a highly polarised society. Over the past decade, any consensus about how it views itself or its future has broken down despite the country having well-grounded capabilities on foresight which could help steer it towards a united vision and the steps needed to realise its desired future. It is unclear whether the Biden administration can project a vision that appeals to most Americans, binding together a nation deeply split in its view of America and its role in the world. At the tactical level, foresight tools and mechanisms remain in use throughout the bureaucracy even if they have not been able to reconcile contrasting societal perspectives. 2016 was a dramatic turning point in which the US Intelligence Community – the leading foresight practitioner in the US government – fell out of favour with the president and many of his senior advisors. Biden’s vision for the country embraces diversity and renewed US leadership in the world. Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken talks about humility and confidence being “the flip sides of America’s leadership coin”,1 repudiating Trump’s America First stance.
Topic:: Intelligence, Donald Trump, Domestic Policy, Polarization, Joe Biden, and Future
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

20. Ambivalence About International Trade in Open- and Closed-ended Survey Responses

Author:: Arturo Chang, Thomas Ferguson, Jacob Rothschild, and Benjamin I. Page
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Spontaneous, open-ended survey responses can sometimes better reveal what is actually on people’s minds than small sets of forced-choice, closed questions. Our analysis of closed questions and trade-related open-ended responses to 2016 ANES “likes” and “dislikes” prompts indicate that Americans held considerably more complex, more ambivalent, and – in many cases – more negative views of international trade than has been apparent in studies that focus only on closed-ended responses. This paper suggests that contrast between open- and closed-question data may help explain why the effectiveness of Donald Trump’s appeals to trade resentments surprised many observers.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Public Opinion, Free Trade, Donald Trump, and Data
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

21. President Biden’s Challenges in the Middle East after Former President Trump’s successes (?). From Trump to Biden: Continuity or Discontinuity?/Los retos del presidente Biden en el Medio Oriente tras los ¿éxitos? obtenidos por el ex -presidente Trump. De Trump a Biden ¿ruptura o continuidad?

Author:: Romualdo Bermejo García
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The Middle East has recently seen a few bright spots in Arab Israeli relations, as evidenced by the wellknown Abraham Accords, led by former President Donald Trump and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. There remain, however, two major unresolved issues: one is that of Iran and the armed groups massively supported by Tehran, such as Hamas, Hezbollah and others that are beginning to have a certain relevance in both Iraq and Syria, as highlighted by international news; and the other, which is more defined, concerns the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme, an aspect that is currently being addressed in the Vienna nuclear negotiations, following the Donald Trump withdrawal from the July 2015 nuclear deal. This highlights the fact that Iran has become one of the most important players in the region and Israel continues to keep a close eye on its activities, not only nuclear, but also those of the various armed groups under its economic, military and political patronage./La zona del Medio Oriente ha encontrado en los últimos tiempos unos vigorosos rayos de luz en las relaciones árabes-israelíes, como lo demuestran los ya conocidos Acuerdos de Abraham, liderados por el ya ex-presidente Donald Trump y por el también ya ex-primer ministro israelí Benjamin Netanyahu. Quedan, sin embargo, dos grandes temas muy importantes sin resolver: uno de ellos es el de Irán y los grupos armados apoyados masivamente por Teherán, como Hamás, Hezbolláh y otros que empiezan a tener una cierta relevancia tanto en Irak como en Siria, como lo pone de relieve la actualidad internacional; y el otro, que es más preciso, atañe a la cuestión del programa nuclear iraní, aspecto que se está tratando actualmente en las negociaciones nucleares de Viena, tras la retirada de los Estados Unidos del acuerdo nuclear de julio de 2015 por parte de Donald Trump. Esto pone de manifiesto que Irán se ha convertido en uno de los actores más importantes de la zona, lo que trae consigo que Israel siga vigilando de cerca sus actividades, y no solo las nucleares, sino también la de los diversos grupos armados que se encuentran bajo su patrocinio económico, militar y político.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, Negotiation, Hezbollah, International Court of Justice (ICJ), Donald Trump, Hamas, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

22. Renewing the U.S.-European Partnership in the Post-Trump Era

Author:: Renee M. Earle
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In June, European leaders rolled out a plush (some have said “gush”) welcome mat for President Biden when he arrived for G7, NATO, and U.S.-EU meetings with his message that America was back to strengthen alliances. Broad smiles among participating leaders trumpeted similar world views and were in sharp contrast with the sour notes of unpredictable meetings with President Trump. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen conveyed the general warm embrace for the U.S. prodigal son: “Well, Mr. President, dear Joe, we are so pleased to welcome you in Brussels,” von der Leyen said. “You are back in Brussels and America is back on the global scene. It’s great news. It’s great news for our alliance. It’s also great news for the world. And we are really delighted to work with you to tackle together some global challenges.” Upbeat communiqués following the meetings with NATO and the EU outlined a staggering number of areas of transatlantic cooperation, from geopolitical engagement to trade, climate, and cybersecurity. Even the European Parliament expressed optimism in an opinion indicating great expectations for U.S.-EU cooperation with a detailed list of tasks, not least deliverables for the upcoming WTO ministerial meeting at the end of the year, such as “the green and digital transition; a fisheries agreement; a declaration on trade and health; work programmes for the reform of the Dispute Settlement Body for industrial subsidies and state-owned enterprises; and negotiations on electronic commerce.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, European Union, Partnerships, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

23. How Do We Talk to Foreign Audiences After Trump’s Subversion?

Author:: Ken Moskowitz
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: When I was the U.S. Embassy press officer in Kyiv, Ukraine in the late 1990s, the public affairs section sponsored programs showcasing and explaining American democracy in the post-Soviet republic. One major event I organized was a public symposium entitled “Holding Elections in a Free Society”. We featured American government and academic experts on topics such as how to maintain a level playing field among competing political parties, registering to vote, ensuring fairness in the counting of ballots, election monitoring, equal access to the media, and similar features of our electoral system. The implicit message, of course, is that our election system is worthy of emulation. But our experience in last November’s presidential election, and the groundless objections about its integrity and result raised by President Donald Trump, culminating in a pro-Trump mob’s attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, did not resemble the exemplary depiction in my symposium. How could American diplomats justify holding such programs today, after the president himself condemned our Federal elections as rigged and massively fraudulent, our national government as corrupt, federal bureaucrats as members in a disloyal or self-serving Deep State, and the federal and state courts as biased institutions? The world has noted the deterioration in America’s democratic culture. In the 2019 Index of Democracy published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, the rating of the U.S. on its democracy scale fell from 8.05 in 2015 to 7.96 in 2019 (with 10 as the top score), dropping it further into the “flawed democracy” from the “full democracy” category. The U.S. now ranks 25th of 167 countries rated. American diplomats might be shocked to learn that the Economist team now grades U.S. democracy lower than Mauritius, Chile, and Uruguay according to its measures of features such as the electoral process and pluralism, and the functioning of government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Democracy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: United States of America

24. The Biden transition

Author:: Simon Serfaty
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: During the grotesque years of the Trump administration, and after its extraordinarily contested departure, the admittedly romantic idea of the United States has turned into a thing of the past—no longer the do-good democracy it used to be, but now a country unpredictably reactive rather than preventive, vindictive rather than proactive, and exclusive rather than inclusive. In June 2020, the nation’s pride reached a 20-year low, with only 42 percent of the respondents “extremely proud” to be American, down from 69 percent in 2003. And according to a Wall Street Journal poll, four Americans in five found the country “out of control.” By year’s end, aberrant talk that military force might be used, and martial law imposed, for a targeted “rerun” of the election was historically unreal but left many afraid about the future of the nation. When votes which have been counted no longer count, integrity is dismissed, character no longer matters, alternative facts are deemed real, and feeling right takes precedence over being right, then there is nothing left to hold on to. As Bertolt Brecht sarcastically suggested in 1953—time “to dissolve the people and elect another.” Throughout, the world has watched in dismay. For much of the previous century, America was the country much of the world came to rely on for its promises, a country that not only counted but one that could be counted on decisively. But now, the trust is gone: wrote former Secretary of State George Shultz on his one hundredth birthday, “a belief that what [our] nation … commits to do will, in fact be done” and what it “says will happen is, in fact, capable of being done.” A September 2020 survey by the Pew Research Center in 13 nations, all wealthy democracies, showed America’s reputation and over all confidence in its president in steady decline, often at their lowest points since these surveys began twenty years before—with more confidence in Xi Jinping (19 per cent) and Putin (23 per cent) than in Trump (16 percent). Such findings have been repeated since—en pire.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: United States of America

25. The Trump Plan: Not the Way to Advance Israeli-Palestinian Peace

Author:: Nadav Tamir, Nimrod Goren, Lior Lehrs, Yonatan Touval, Elie Podeh, Ksenia Svetlova, Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, Merav Kahana-Dagan, Barukh Binah, and Roee Kibrik
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Following the publication of the Trump plan, Mitvim Institute experts argue that this is not the way to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace. This document includes initial commentaries by Nadav Tamir, who claims that Israel needs a real peace plan; Dr. Nimrod Goren, who calls on the international community to say “no” to the Trump plan; Dr. Lior Lehrs, who explains that on the Jerusalem issue, Trump shatters the status quo and previous understandings; Yonatan Touval, who argues that Trump takes problematic diplomatic practices of his predecessors to the extreme; Prof. Elie Podeh, who contends that the Trump plan is not even an opportunity for peace; Former MK Ksenia Svetlova, who warns that the Trump plan might endanger Israel’s warming ties with Arab countries; Dr. Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, who claims that while the EU remains committed to the two-state solution, it struggles to respond to the Trump plan; Merav Kahana-Dagan, who identifies an opportunity to bring the Palestinian issue back to the forefront; Amb. (ret.) Barukh Binah, who calls on Israeli leaders to seek diplomatic, not only security, advice; and Dr. Roee Kibrik, who thinks that Israelis should decide what type of country they want to live in.
Topic:: Politics, Territorial Disputes, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, North America, and United States of America

26. US-Turkey Relations Hanging by a Thread: Trump’s Re-Election

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: As the American elections are about to take place, many in Turkey brace for the outcome. After countless disputes between the United States and Turkey during the 2010’s, coupled with growing divergence of Turkish foreign policy, two allies’ relationship has been deceptively good for the last two years. This was not due to a meaningful rapprochement, but to Erdogan’s well-executed personal diplomacy with Trump which has proved beneficial for Turkey in many cases. Yet, this superficial rapprochement is challenged by the prospects of a Biden presidency. Biden, whose remarks are far from affable towards Erdogan and who has even pledged to support Turkish opposition, is very likely to demand Turkey to recommit to its alliance with the West. Hence, we may soon see a Turkey at a serious crossroads: either Turkey will turn its face to West once again, or it will further alienate from the West.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Turkey, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean

27. Arab, Iranian, and Turkish Responses to President Trump’s Impeachment

Author:: Washington Institute Staff
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A survey of how regional media outlets discussed the congressional impeachment process and its potential ramifications on the 2020 presidential election. Across the Middle East, the story of President Trump’s impeachment and subsequent acquittal received secondtier coverage compared to regional or local issues. Many Arabic-language websites and newspapers translated and republished Western articles as opposed to creating their own content on the issue, such as Al Jazeera publishing a translated version of a Guardian editorial. Moreover, the bulk of the articles just explained the facts or process of impeachment rather than expounding on its significance. Some celebrated the idea that there is a mechanism for peaceful removal of a leader. Most commented on the unlikelihood of Trump’s removal and how America is facing unprecedented polarization. Those articles that did offer their own editorial content were split on whether impeachment will help or hurt Trump’s election campaign. Publications in the Gulf states tended to portray impeachment as an act of “political vengeance” by Democrats against Trump, “who won despite their opposition” (Sky News Arabia). Most Gulf papers posited that Trump will ultimately benefit in the 2020 election “after proving his innocence before the Senate” (Al Seyassah). Yet Qatari coverage deviated from the general Gulf trend. For example, one Al Jazeera article asserted that the impeachment case against Trump “is simple, and established not only by officials speaking under oath, but by his own words and actions.” Egyptian newspapers were more split on how impeachment will affect the election. Anti-American outlets in Syria suggested it will hurt him, with Al Baath noting “all data indicate that Trump’s hope for a return to the White House have faded.” Lebanese publications tended to take a more neutral view. The Hezbollah-controlled newspaper Al Akhbar wrote that the prospect of impeachment weakening Trump’s electoral campaign “is similar to that of his potential main rival,” arguing that Joe Biden was also tainted by the process. Most Iranian media tended to copy Western sources, but two themes prevailed among outlets offering original content: portrayal of impeachment as a scandal that has tainted Trump’s presidential legacy, or neutral analysis of how impeachment may or may not harm his reelection chances. A few analytical pieces suggested that he might be able to transform the scandal into an asset for his campaign, since it may “lead to more popularity among the middle class.” While most Iranian articles leaned against Trump, few appeared to praise Democrats. Turkish articles generally depicted impeachment as a “gift” to Trump’s campaign. SETA, a think tank that supports President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, claimed that what “hasn’t killed Trump will make him stronger.” Sabah News, another pro-Erdogan source, wrote that impeachment will “unite Republican senators and members of the House of Representatives around him.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Media, News Analysis, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries, North America, and United States of America

28. The White House Peace Plan Meeting: U.S. Goals, Israeli Repercussions

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Whether they reveal a detailed plan or merely preview an aspirational document, U.S. officials still need to clarify their goals at a time when elections are looming and Palestinian participation seems highly unlikely. In a dramatic move, President Trump has announced that Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his leading rival, Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz, will visit the White House on January 28 to be briefed on the administration’s long-awaited Middle East peace plan. Trump told reporters that the plan would likely be released before the summit. Predictably, no invitation was extended to the Palestinian Authority, which severed relations with Washington after the U.S. embassy was moved to Jerusalem in 2017.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

29. Reading Trump in Tehran

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A week after Donald Trump was elected president in November 2016, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei played coy, remarking, “I have no judgment on the American election...[Both parties have been] naughty toward us.” Of course, his true reaction was far more complex. On one hand, he saw in the president-elect—who had spoken much of disentangling U.S. forces from the Middle East—a prospect of decreased military pressure on his country. On the other, he heard Trump’s raw vitriol directed at Iran’s leadership and the nuclear deal crafted by President Obama. The eventual U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA demonstrated that the new president could back up his talk with punishing action. In this close analysis of statements by Khamenei and other Iranian leaders, former seminarian Mehdi Khalaji lays out the regime’s current views on President Trump and the United States. He shows that even after the American assassination of Qods Force chief Qasem Soleimani, Iranian leaders could be open to negotiating with Washington if they believe the regime’s existence depends on it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

30. Preferential Trade Agreements vs. Multilateralism: In the New Trump-World, Does Canada Face an Impossible Choice?

Author:: Judit Fabian
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: International trade is often framed in starkly divergent terms: either countries choose multilateral trade agreements (MTAs) and advance the cause of global economic liberalization, or they choose preferred trade agreements (PTAs) and put the entire system at risk. Canada has a long track record of pursuing PTAs and with the Trump administration’s opposition to multilateralism, and longstanding opposition in elements of the Republican and Democratic parties, this trend will likely continue. The question is whether progress will come at the expense of the global trade system. Some economists believe PTAs to be trade-diverting, reducing trade with more efficient producers outside the agreement. Others insist that PTAs can create trade by shifting production to lower-cost producers in one of the participating countries. One prominent contrary argument holds that PTAs lead to discontinuities in tariff regimes between countries and regions, increasing transaction costs, disrupting supply chains, creating opportunities for corruption and harming global welfare, especially in developing nations. While debate continues about the effects of PTAs, a closer examination suggests that worries are overblown about their negative impacts on global trade flows. Evidence indicates that they support rather than harm the international trading system. Countries shut out of PTAs are more motivated to seek out agreements in new markets, increasing liberalization overall. They may also seek a reduction in most-favoured nation (MFN) tariffs, which would deprive PTAs of their major tariff benefits. Studies have found complementarity between preferential and MFN tariffs, revealing that PTAs promote external trade liberalization. Even if a PTA reduces a given country’s incentive to push for multilateral liberalization, it raises the odds of that country liberalizing its trade to avoid getting left behind. PTAs are a response to the difficulties of securing sweeping multilateral agreements. The World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreements authorize them under GATT Article XXIV, GATS Article V, and the enabling clause, and the WTO facilitates a degree of governance over PTAs through its dispute settlement process. Over the past 25 years, countries have adopted these deals at a rapid pace. Between 1994 and 2005, the number of PTAs increased from 50 to 200. By April 2018, 336 were in effect. At the same time, global trade has increased significantly. Between 1994 and 2010, the volume of world merchandise exports more than doubled. The proliferation of PTAs has resulted in a rise in international trade governance, because the countries involved shape their relationships in line with the WTO agreements. This juridification makes PTAs subordinate to the international system rather than giving them room to dissolve it. Canada should therefore have no fear of pursuing PTAs within the larger framework of the effort to achieve multilateral trade liberalization.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Governance, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

31. The Shifting Boundaries of Antisemitism

Author:: Manfred Gerstenfeld
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: An important tool in understanding the dynamics of antisemitism is the identification of moments when its boundaries shift. This occurred with the Trump Peace Plan, the antisemitism crisis in the British Labour party, the UN’s first World Conference against Racism, the huge outburst of antisemitism in France in 2000, and the German welcome policy for refugees and asylum seekers.
Topic:: Politics, Ideology, Peace, Anti-Semitism, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

32. What US strategy gets wrong about China in Africa

Author:: Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s Africa strategy is rooted in three misconceptions about China’s African footprint—and a fourth about US-Africa economic relations—that are either factually incorrect or overstated in terms of the broader strategic challenges they pose to US interests: (1) Chinese engagement in Africa crowds out opportunities for trade and investment with and from the United States; (2) Chinese engagement in Africa is resource-seeking—to the detriment of US interests; (3) Chinese engagement in Africa is designed to foster debt-based coercive diplomacy; and (4) US-Africa economic linkages are all one-way and concessionary (i.e., aid-based). Hendrix finds little evidence to suggest Chinese trade and investment ties crowd out US trade and investment opportunities. China’s resource-seeking bent is evident in investment patterns, but it is more a function of Africa’s having comparatively large, undercapitalized resource endowments than China’s attempt to corner commodity markets. Chinese infrastructural development—particularly large projects associated with the Belt and Road Initiative—may result in increased African indebtedness to the Chinese, but there is little reason to think debt per se will vastly expand Chinese military capacity in the region. And finally, US-Africa economic relations are much less one-sided and concessionary (i.e., aid-based) than conventional wisdom suggests.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Economy, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Africa, China, North America, and United States of America

33. Developing Countries Can Help Restore the WTO's Dispute Settlement System

Author:: Ana González and Euijin Jung
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: By refusing to fill vacancies in the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Appellate Body—the top body that hears appeals and rules on trade disputes—the Trump administration has paralyzed the key component of the dispute settlement system. No nation or group of nations has more at stake in salvaging this system than the world’s big emerging-market economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, and Thailand, among others. These countries have actively and successfully used the dispute settlement system to defend their commercial interests abroad and resolve inevitable trade conflicts. The authors suggest that even though the developing countries did not create the Appellate Body crisis, they may hold a key to unlock it. The Trump administration has also focused its ire on a longstanding WTO practice of giving these economies latitude to seek “special and differential treatment” in trade negotiations because of their developing-country status. The largest developing economies, which have a significant stake in preserving a two-step, rules-based mechanism for resolving trade disputes, could play a role in driving a potential bargain to save the appeals mechanism. They could unite to give up that special status in return for a US commitment to end its boycott of the nomination of Appellate Body members.
Topic:: Development, Government, World Trade Organization, Developing World, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, India, South Korea, Brazil, North America, Mexico, Thailand, and United States of America

34. Why Trump shot the sheriffs: The end of WTO dispute settlement 1.0

Author:: Chad P. Bown and Soumaya Keynes
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: On December 10, 2019, the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 25-year-old system of resolving disputes broke down. This paper explains why. It describes the dysfunctional system that preceded the WTO, when the United States dealt with politically troublesome imports by using voluntary export restraints and increasingly resorted to the “aggressively unilateral” Section 301 policy to resolve trade concerns. The WTO was a compromise between the rest of the world and the United States, whereby the latter accepted some constraints with the expectation that the new system of binding dispute settlement would serve its interests. But although the creation of the WTO resolved some concerns about American unilateralism in the short term, its system of handling disputes turned out to be politically unsustainable.
Topic:: Economics, World Trade Organization, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

35. Indo-Pacific as the Main Arena of the U.S.-China Rivalry

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Trump administration recognises the “Indo-Pacific” region—which in official terminology has replaced “Asia-Pacific”—as the most important area for maintaining U.S. global dominance by confronting China. The anti-China approach in the American strategy is not shared by other countries that also are developing Indo-Pacific policy because they are concerned about the negative effects of the U.S.-China rivalry. The Americans will put pressure on their NATO and EU allies to more strongly support the achievement of U.S. goals in the region. However, the EU approach is closer to that of the Asian countries in seeking cooperation and strengthening the stability of a cooperative and rules-based regional order.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, European Union, and Indo-Pacific

36. The U.S. Fight against Coronavirus

Author:: Marek Wąsiński and Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The coronavirus outbreak is spreading throughout the United States. After its initial underestimation of the threat, the Trump administration has acted to fight against the pandemic, including the introduction of a national emergency. The effectiveness of these actions will be an important factor in whether Trump is re-elected. The limits on social life despite the enormous financial support from the government and the Federal Reserve have dramatically slowed the economy, heading into a recession. Public debt will increase much more rapidly, which may force budget cuts in the coming years.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Health, Financial Crisis, Health Care Policy, Crisis Management, Donald Trump, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

37. Interpreters as Diplomatic Actors in the Trump Era

Author:: Seckin Baris Gulmez, Nihal Yetkin Karakoc, and Didem Buhari Gulmez
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This article investigates the impact of interpreters on the US foreign policy that is defined with a tradition of anti- diplomacy in the Trump era. The literature in both International Relations and Translation Studies often overlooks the impact of interpreters on diplomacy and fails to consider interpreter as an actor per se. In this context, the study will investigate the initiatives undertaken by interpreters in order to fill the emerging gap in the diplomatic sphere in terms of diplomatic language, customs and actors in the Trump era. Accordingly, the article first comparatively examines the role of interpreters and diplomats and then, discusses the key roles of interpreters in diplomacy under two main categories: “communication filter” involving time-gaining strategy, moderation and gatekeeping and “conciliation” that includes the roles of scape goat, crisis prevention and mediation. Overall, this study demonstrates that interpreters have a greater space of manoeuvre than is generally assumed in terms of influencing diplomatic processes. By establishing the missing link between International Relations and Translation Studies, this study aims to become a pioneering work that contributes to the debate about whether interpreters can be considered as an important diplomatic actor.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Translation, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Turkey, North America, and United States of America

38. Twitter Diplomacy in Turkey - US Relations

Author:: Ali Sevket Ovali
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The use of Twitter has become an important part of foreign policy making and conducting in the recent years. Since it is seen as the most powerful and popular tool of digital diplomacy, foreign policy makers increasingly use Twitter for sending messages to their counterparts and to inform their followers on certain issues, problems or current topics on their country’s foreign policy agenda. Taking the popularity of Twitter use in foreign policy, this study aims to discuss the role of Twitter diplomacy on Turkey-US relations. In this respect, how and for which purposes foreign policy makers in Turkey and the US use Twitter, which topics are mostly covered by the tweets of the selected top- level decision-makers’ accounts, the positive and negative impacts of Twitter on the current status of bilateral relations and the role that Twitter is likely to play in the future of relations are the points that are going to be dealt within the framework of this study.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Social Media, Donald Trump, and Twitter
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

39. Trump’s “Deal of the Century” Is Not the Reversal of US Policy toward Israel– Palestine —The Reversal Is What We Need

Author:: Sadiq Saffarini
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: The article analyzes President Trump’s vision for a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and Palestine, the so-called Deal of the Century announced on January 28. While the proposal uses the language of hope and prosperity and expresses support for the two-state solution, its provisions actually render the Palestinian “state” inviable. The plan does not empower the Palestinian state with full sovereignty over its territory nor does it recognize its internationally accepted borders, while at the same time nullifying the Palestinian right of return. In short, the plan seeks to legalize and legitimize the status quo by enabling Israeli expansionism and the systemic denial of Palestinian rights, which is a flagrant violation of international law and has no legal validity.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

40. Europe in the Age of Uncertainties

Author:: Mikael Barfod
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Donald Trump has regularly chipped away at multilateralism during his three years in power: climate change, trade wars, immigration, withdrawal from international conflicts, ambiguity about defence alliances, and even suspension of the US budget for the World Health Organization, to mention a few. EU policy, on the other hand, has always supported the UN and the multilateral approach. A traditionally open and liberal EU has a clear self-interest in preserving multilateralism. Could the EU (as I have previously argued[1]) still take the lead in forming effective international alliances to reactivate and possibly even reform multilateral structures? How can Europe take “its destiny into its own hands” as Angela Merkel suggested recently? Well said, but she is retiring in a year and a half. And meanwhile, what has the coronavirus done to Europe’s destiny? Let’s look at today’s main challenges and opportunities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Immigration, Multilateralism, Trade Wars, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

41. On Iran: Don’t Snap Back, Step Up

Author:: Alistair Millar
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:: The Trump administration was handed a resounding defeat in the United Nations Security Council at the end of last week when it offered a new resolution to indefinitely extend the UN arms embargo on Iran… Not only is the outcome of this vote embarrassing for the United States, it was the first salvo in a dangerous game of brinksmanship that is likely to be the biggest test of the Security Council’s resolve in the 75-year history of the United Nations.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, United Nations, UN Security Council, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

42. Foreign Policy Dilemmas and Opportunities for a New Administration: An Opinion Piece

Author:: Robert Jervis
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: Robert Jervis speculates about the likely foreign policy that a Democratic administration will follow if its candidate wins in November. He argues that President Donald Trump will have left a difficult legacy and his successor will have to simultaneously rebuild trust and instructions while also utilizing the leverage that Trump has generated.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Political Science, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

43. US Trade Policy in the Biden Administration: The Challenge of China’s Rise

Author:: Simon Lester and Huan Zhu
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Trump administration has left the Biden administration a number of difficult trade policy issues to deal with, but the biggest challenge is likely to be China. The Biden administration will need to find a way forward in the increasingly tense US-China relationship, which covers aspects of trade, as well as foreign policy, security, and human rights issues. This article describes the rise of China as a priority in US trade policy, reviews the current set of US-China trade issues, and makes suggestions for the Biden administration going forward.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Grand Strategy, Multilateralism, Trade, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

44. The U.S.-China Trade War: Is There an End in Sight?

Author:: Simon Lester and Huan Zhu
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Donald Trump was a trade “hawk” long before he became president. In the late 1980s, he went on the Oprah Winfrey show and complained about Japan “beating the hell out of this country” on trade (Real Clear Politics 2019). As president, he has continued with the same rhetoric, using it against a wide range of U.S. trading partners, and he has followed it up with action (often in the form of tariffs). While many countries have found themselves threatened by Trump’s aggressive trade policy, his main focus has been China. As a result, the United States and China have been engaged in an escalating tariff, trade, and national security conflict since July 2018, when the first set of U.S. tariffs on China went into effect and China retaliated with tariffs of its own. In this article, we explore the U.S.-China economic conflict, from its origins to the trade war as it stands today. We then offer our thoughts on where this conflict is heading and when it might end.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

45. Trump’s JCPOA withdrawal two years on: Maximum pressure, minimum outcomes

Author:: David Mortlock
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Two years ago, US President Donald J. Trump walked into the White House Diplomatic Reception Room and announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Iran and has adopted a policy of “maximum pressure” to compel Iran to change its behavior and to deny the Iranian regime the resources to engage in its destabilizing activities. However, he also promised he was ready, willing, and able to make a new and lasting deal with Iran. In “Trump’s JCPOA Withdrawal Two Years On – Maximum Pressure, Minimum Outcomes” author David Mortlock, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, evaluates the policy outcomes of President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA. The author walks readers through the timeline of President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA, the subsequent implementation of the maximum pressure campaign on Iran, and the policy outcomes relative to stated objectives. In sum, Mortlock concludes that although the maximum pressure campaign has been effective in inflicting economic harm on Iran, it has had minimum effect in other areas. Therefore, Mortlock believes the Trump administration should seize the opportunity to pivot from maximum pressure to an approach focused more on policy outcomes.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Nuclear Power, Economy, Donald Trump, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

46. Seven Ironies of Reconstructing a New Security Paradigm in the Gulf

Author:: Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: During the month of January 2020, most world capitals, diplomats, and think tanks sought to evaluate the status of the already-fragile balance of power in the Gulf. The U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to assassinate the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad has triggered the most acute escalation between Washington and Tehran since 1979. The White House’s pursuit of neutralizing the second most important figure in Iran, after the spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamenei, has shifted the US-Iranian rivalry into a fierce confrontation between Washington’s “maximum pressure” and Tehran’s “maximum resistance”. There have been several interpretations and predictions of Iran’s possible direct or indirect acts of retaliation vis-à-vis Trump’s threats of targeting 52 sites, which have political and cultural significance for the Iranians. Some Washington-based analysts have been wary that “the U.S. and Iran are now in a traditional escalatory slope, and although neither side wants war, there is a real risk that it might happen.”(1) Anthony H. Cordesman, leading analyst at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, has cautioned that the new US-Iran crisis “has now led to consistent failures in the U.S. strategy when dealing with Iraq and the Middle East for the last two decades – and has already turned two apparent ‘victories’ into real world defeats.”(2) In Doha, two research institutions, Aljazeera Centre for Studies and Qatar University’s Gulf Studies Centre, hosted a two-day conference, “Toward a New Gulf Security Order: Abandoning Zero-sum Approaches” at Qatar University January 19 and 20, to formulate new perspectives of the waning regional security order, and explore how to construct an alternative paradigm. As a point of entry, the Conference concept highlighted two manifestations of the failure of the existing security order, formally adopted by all Gulf States, since the establishment of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) May 25, 1981: First, to prevent the invasion, and later liberation, of Kuwait in the early 1990s. GCC established a coalition land force, “the Peninsular Shield Force”, with the objective of defending the six nation states, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Second, the decision of three member states - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain - to impose a blockade on Qatar, a founding member of GCC since June 2017.(3) In this turbulent part of the world, Iran’s pursuit of creating a regional security order, but on the parsuit of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region—a condition rejected by Gulf states, which see the United States as the principal guarantor of their national security. Moreover, Iran still considers its own foreign interventions in the Gulf and Arab region as part of its revolutionary identity, to which it has devoted resources and agencies.(4) This paper “Seven Ironies of Reconstructing a New Security Paradigm in the Gulf” is a summary of the presentation I delivered at the Conference’s fifth panel “The Gulf and the US-Gulf Conflict”. It probes into several challenges of deconstructing the status quo, before envisioning an alternative framework of mutual security cooperation among several actors in the Gulf and the Middle East.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Oil, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

47. Why Trump Rejects the Need from Middle Eastern Oil

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: It is the geopolitics rather than the economics of energy that will drive US interest, particularly as it regards efforts to change Iranian policies, if not the Iranian regime, as well as the longer-term power balance in the Middle East.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

48. The short- and long-term costs to the United States of the Trump administration’s attempt to deport foreign students

Author:: Sherman Robinson, Marcus Noland, Egor Gornostay, and Soyoung Han
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: On July 6, 2020, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced modifications to the Student and Exchange Visitor Program eliminating temporary exemptions for nonimmigrant students taking all classes online due to the COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in the fall 2020 semester. Foreign students violating the rule would be subject to deportation. Under public pressure, the Trump administration rescinded the order on July 14. Had the policy been implemented, more than 1 million foreign students studying in the United States could have been deported. The authors use an economywide simulation model to estimate the economic impact on the United States if the policy had been implemented. They find that the policy would have cost the US economy up to 752,000 jobs and $68 billion in lost GDP in the short run. Their estimates are larger than those reported in other studies because they consider both direct and indirect effects of the policy. In the long run, the move would have reduced the research productivity of American universities and adversely affected research, innovation, and entrepreneurship across the economy, in both the private and public sectors.
Topic:: Education, Migration, Labor Issues, Donald Trump, COVID-19, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

49. The Political Significance of the Trump Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The plan announced by U.S. President Donald Trump will not break the deadlock in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. For all involved parties, the plan will remain a point of reference for political and diplomatic actions in the coming months. The key factors of future developments would be Israel’s decision on the possible annexation of parts of the West Bank and, in the long-run, the outcome of this fall’s U.S. presidential elections.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

50. Donald Trump’s Geopolitical Framework for Northeast Asia: Something Borrowed, Something New

Author:: Mark Tokola
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Does the forty-fifth president of the United States, Donald J. Trump, have a foreign policy, not least of all inclusive of the vital Northeast Asian region? The question is not flippant. Policy is usually thought of as a set of principles that guide action towards a desired outcome. Trump may, as he professes, act from instinct – reactively and transactionally rather than from an intent to implement an established policy. In the eyes of some of his supporters, this would be a virtue. They elected him expressly for the purpose of breaking with a traditional Washington policy machinery that they did not believe was serving their interests. However, Trump and his administration do assert and describe a distinct foreign policy. They even have a name for it, “principled realism.” Moreover, when Trump was running for the presidency in 2016, he announced his intention to “develop a new foreign policy direction for our country, one that replaces randomness with purpose, ideology with strategy, and chaos with peace.” He stated, “It’s time to shake the rust off America’s foreign policy.”
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

51. Four Years of Trump. The US and the World

Author:: Mario Del Pero, Paola Magri, Gary C. Jacobson, Michele Alacevich, Gabriella Sanchez, Scott L. Greer, Mario Del Pero, William F. Wechsler, and Erik Jones
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Unprecedented and unpredictable: this is how US President Donald Trump's administration has repeatedly been labelled. Beyond the frequent tweets and bombastic rhetoric, however, lie a more conventional four years, as the United States navigated an ever-evolving international reality, compounded by a global pandemic and one of the deepest economic recessions in over a century. This Report analyses the continuity and changes that occurred during Trump’s presidency. Domestically, it investigates the growing political polarization, the country's pre-pandemic economic performance, Trump's approach towards regular and irregular migration, and the US’ response to a healthcare emergency. At the international level, this volume looks at how the US stance has changed vis-à-vis China, the Middle East, and Europe. Which long-term trends has President Trump had to ride through? What was his trademark, and what might be his lasting legacy?
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Immigration, European Union, Inequality, Economic Growth, Engagement, Donald Trump, COVID-19, Polarization, and Disengagement
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

52. The Point of No Return: The 2020 Election and the Crisis of American Foreign Policy

Author:: Thomas Wright
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: With the international order weakened by COVID-19, economic recession, and receding American leadership, the 2020 presidential election will be even more consequential than that of 2016. There is no reason to believe that President Trump will follow in the tradition of other Republican presidents and pursue a more multilateral and cooperative strategy in his second term. Emboldened and unconstrained, a second Trump administration could spell the end of the alliance system and the postwar liberal international order. A Biden administration would be a reprieve for the US-led international order, and will act on climate change, COVID-19, immigration, and multilateralism, while Biden will need to adjudicate internal debates on China, the Middle East, globalisation, and foreign economic policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Globalization, Elections, Economic Policy, Donald Trump, COVID-19, International Order, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and United States of America

53. Donald Trump and the battle of the two percent: How will the US election impact on the conflicts over defence spending within NATO?

Author:: Mikkel Runge Olesen
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: US pressure on its NATO allies to increase defence spending is likely to continue, especially if Trump wins the US presidential election. Denmark can look to Germany to anticipate how pressure from the US will play itself out. RECOMMENDATIONS: Denmark should carefully monitor defence spending in other European countries, particularly in Germany, to be able to anticipate increased US pressure on itself. As an active contributor to international operations abroad, Denmark should continue to emphasize the efficiency of its defence spending as a factor of importance in NATO, but not expect it to be able to deflect US criticism fully, especially if Trump wins a second term. Denmark should proactively seek to prioritize defence spending in areas where US and Danish national interests coincide the most, as they do in the Arctic.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, Denmark, and United States of America

54. The Trump-Iran Showdown: A Conflict Resolution Perspective

Author:: Richard E. Rubenstein and Oakley Thomas Hill
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Why would Trump run the risk of a war by assassinating Iran’s most effective general? Conventional Realist explanations do not answer the question adequately. The imperial strategy and the American Empire’s decline points toward a more convincing (and alarming) explanation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

55. Trump’s Presidency: Nuances of Leadership versus Management of Crises

Author:: Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The current riots across America represent a moment of rebuttal at the conjuncture between an exit from the Coronavirus dilemma and Trump’s pursuit of a second term a few weeks before the National Conventions of the Republican and Democratic parties.
Topic:: Conflict, Crisis Management, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

56. The Hard Chess Puzzle: Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ versus Iran’s ‘Maximum Resistance’

Author:: Kayhan Barzegar
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: As the dice of the “maximum pressure” and “maximum resistance” policies are rotating between Iran and the United States, a new synthesis, seemingly satisfactory for both parties, emerges and that is appealing to a “minimum containment” policy and avoiding an unwanted war.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

57. “Gulf citizens against normalization”: Reactions to Israel’s normalization agreements with the UAE and Bahrain

Author:: Adam Hoffman
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In September issue of Beehive, Adam Hoffman examines the discourse in the social networks of several Gulf States regarding Israel's normalization agreements with the UAE and Bahrain.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, Donald Trump, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Israel, Bahrain, Gulf Nations, and UAE

58. With Tensions Receding, Americans Lose Fear of North Korea

Author:: Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: North Korea’s promise to deliver an end-of-year “Christmas gift” went unfulfilled amid signs that the United States wanted to continue diplomacy with the Kim regime. This has led to a continued lull in tensions between the two countries, although actual progress in negotiations remains elusive. With that lack of progress, President Donald Trump has reportedly told his advisers that he does not want another summit with Kim Jong Un before the US presidential election in November. In a survey conducted from January 10–12, 2020, the American public is now less concerned about the threat posed by North Korea, but little else has changed in terms of Americans’ policy preferences to deal with North Korea’s nuclear program. Majorities still oppose airstrikes against North Korea and support long-term military bases in South Korea.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

59. Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics

Author:: Ellie Geranmayeh
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far. Three main power blocs compete to influence Iran’s supreme leader, including the ‘modernisers’, who were instrumental in building the case internally for the nuclear deal. The US ‘maximum pressure’ campaign has placed them on the back foot. Improving the economy remains the most pressing issue in Iran. Without a Western economic offer, the other two power blocs – the conservative ‘Principlists’ and IRGC-linked ‘securocrats’ – will continue their recent ascendancy and press for a confrontational ‘maximum resistance’ response. Immediately after the US presidential election, Europeans should embark on shuttle diplomacy with Washington and Tehran to agree an interim deal on the nuclear issue. This could also strengthen modernisers ahead of Iran’s own presidential race in 2021.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

60. US Elections - The optimistic worst-case scenario

Author:: Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Christian Kvorning Lassen, Deputy Director of the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, comments on the US presidential election. The US elections will come down to the wire, and will be determined by mail-in votes. While this was fully expected during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was also the worst-case scenario given Trump’s persistent attempts to delegitimize mail-in votes, despite lack of clear evidence of their fraudulence. Much like 2016, the key battleground states are Pennsylvania (20 EC votes), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), with mail-in votes deciding their outcome. As of this writing, Pennsylvania has counted 700.000 out of 2.5 million mail-in votes, of which Biden has won 71.7% of them to Trump’s 21.3%. Michigan has counted 425.000 out of 2.48 million, with Biden winning 65% to Trump’s 33%. Finally, Wisconsin still needs to count 1.3 million mail-in votes. Should the trend of Biden winning 2/3 of all mail-in votes, Biden will be a clear election winner, giving the Biden camp cause for optimism.
Topic:: Elections, Donald Trump, Pandemic, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

61. Through the Looking Glass: The Nordic-Baltic Region and the Changing Role of the United States

Author:: Piret Kuusik
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Strengths and power come from within. While the US still dominates in terms of power of attraction, its fraught domestic situation undermines its global standing. This analysis focuses on the countries in the Nordic-Baltic region – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden – and assesses how they are adapting to President Donald Trump administration’s foreign policy and the changing role of the US in the world. President Trump has stirred the current world order and the US foreign policy. Previous long-term and broad US foreign policy has become narrow and shallow. Immediate gain has become the new measure of success in US external relations; setting the direction and interests of US foreign policy. To the region and Europe at large, this has been a shake-up which consequences have not been thoroughly analysed and debated in the public space. The analysis hopes to serve as an opener to a broader debate in Estonia and in the Nordic-Baltic region about the US’s changing role and the following consequences. The analysis desires to advance regional cooperation and shared thinking; helping policy-makers, journalists, researchers and politicians to contribute to the future discussions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, United States of America, and Baltic States

62. The US and the Israeli –Palestinian Conflict: One-state solution, two-state solution or no solution at all?

Author:: Raffaella A. Del Sarto, Rashid Khalidi, Gideon Levy, and Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: The online discussion explored the situation on the ground, elaborated on whether and how the Trump administration’s policies have impacted the conflict in the long-run, its repercussions on the broader Middle East region, and assess the role a Biden administration might play in the next future?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Negotiation, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

63. The US Elections 2020: What Future for Democracy, Social Movements, and Human Rights?

Author:: Deva Woodly, Tina Kempin Reuter, and Saskia Stachowitsch
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: While Joe Biden has won the US presidential elections, it is clear that the Trump presidency was not an aberration in the democratic tradition of the US, but reflects a broader shift towards authoritarian politics that is also mirrored on the global scale. This panel discussion reflects on the domestic and international effects of these shifts on social movements, marginalized populations, human rights, and global peace-making. Together with renowned experts, we will explore the future of social justice, inclusion, and participation in the US and beyond under a Biden administration that is faced with the conditions of populism, persistent white supremacy, and rising authoritarianism.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Populism, Social Justice, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

64. A New West in the Middle East: Toward a Humbler, More Effective Model of Transatlantic Cooperation

Author:: Charles Thépaut
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: U.S.-European cooperation in the Middle East may not rank high in American voters’ minds, but the issue will demand close policy attention in the months ahead. If Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump, European leaders should not allow their undoubted relief to lapse into complacency. And if Trump prevails, they should continue seeking opportunities to deepen the partnership in areas such as counterproliferation and defining the operational contours of Great Power competition. Either way, the dynamic requires a full reset. As one continental diplomat lamented, “Under Bush, Europeans agreed less with the U.S. but were more consulted. Under Obama, they agreed more but were less consulted. Under Trump, they disagree and are barely consulted.” In this new Policy Note, Charles Thepaut deftly assesses the transatlantic dilemma explaining why the post-election period will call for a strategic reckoning between European capitals and Washington. From shared priorities, a fresh approach can emerge in the Middle East, coupled with the pursuit of achievable goals and rooted in a more thoughtful division of military and political tasks.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

65. Preferential Trade Agreements vs. Multilateralism: In the New Trump-World, Does Canada Face an Impossible Choice?

Author:: Judit Fabian
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: International trade is often framed in starkly divergent terms: either countries choose multilateral trade agreements (MTAs) and advance the cause of global economic liberalization, or they choose preferred trade agreements (PTAs) and put the entire system at risk. Canada has a long track record of pursuing PTAs and with the Trump administration’s opposition to multilateralism, and longstanding opposition in elements of the Republican and Democratic parties, this trend will likely continue. The question is whether progress will come at the expense of the global trade system. Some economists believe PTAs to be trade-diverting, reducing trade with more efficient producers outside the agreement. Others insist that PTAs can create trade by shifting production to lower-cost producers in one of the participating countries. One prominent contrary argument holds that PTAs lead to discontinuities in tariff regimes between countries and regions, increasing transaction costs, disrupting supply chains, creating opportunities for corruption and harming global welfare, especially in developing nations. While debate continues about the effects of PTAs, a closer examination suggests that worries are overblown about their negative impacts on global trade flows. Evidence indicates that they support rather than harm the international trading system. Countries shut out of PTAs are more motivated to seek out agreements in new markets, increasing liberalization overall. They may also seek a reduction in most-favoured nation (MFN) tariffs, which would deprive PTAs of their major tariff benefits. Studies have found complementarity between preferential and MFN tariffs, revealing that PTAs promote external trade liberalization. Even if a PTA reduces a given country’s incentive to push for multilateral liberalization, it raises the odds of that country liberalizing its trade to avoid getting left behind. PTAs are a response to the difficulties of securing sweeping multilateral agreements. The World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreements authorize them under GATT Article XXIV, GATS Article V, and the enabling clause, and the WTO facilitates a degree of governance over PTAs through its dispute settlement process. Over the past 25 years, countries have adopted these deals at a rapid pace. Between 1994 and 2005, the number of PTAs increased from 50 to 200. By April 2018, 336 were in effect. At the same time, global trade has increased significantly. Between 1994 and 2010, the volume of world merchandise exports more than doubled. The proliferation of PTAs has resulted in a rise in international trade governance, because the countries involved shape their relationships in line with the WTO agreements. This juridification makes PTAs subordinate to the international system rather than giving them room to dissolve it. Canada should therefore have no fear of pursuing PTAs within the larger framework of the effort to achieve multilateral trade liberalization.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Multilateralism, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

66. Canada’s Historical Search for Trade Markets

Author:: David J. Bercuson
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: When U.S. President Donald Trump was elected in 2016 on a promise to cancel the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Canada risked losing the free-trade regime that it had enjoyed with the U.S. since the original U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement took effect in 1989. Those who came to Canada’s rescue, by persuading the Trump administration to eventually make a new deal, the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement, were Canada’s trading partners in the United States, whose interests were threatened: Nearly two-thirds of U.S. states now have Canada as their most important trading partner. This was indicative of a long-term trade pattern of an ever-increasing closeness in trade between the U.S. and Canada. It is a pattern that started since before Confederation and in spite of not a few attempts in Canada to diversify exports away from the U.S. However, that simply cannot happen in any meaningful way: The 170-year-old pattern of Canada-U.S. trade is now so permanent as to be utterly irreversible. Since the decision by Britain to end tariff preferences for its colonies in the mid-19th century, Canada has naturally sought to penetrate the U.S. market for its exports. The desire has not always been mutual: American protectionism has, at times, hampered the export of Canadian products to the U.S., although tariff barriers have failed to stop what is a seemingly natural and, in many ways, necessary north-south flow of goods and services. Even Canadian attempts to reorient its own trade emphasis to enhance domestic east-west trade, or to expand into countries beyond the United States have made little difference. The trading relationship between Canada and the U.S. has endured through wars and in peacetime, through Republican administrations and Democratic ones. It will only continue to grow. Fantasizing about some markedly different trading future is therefore a waste of Canada’s time and energy, which should instead be expended on further penetrating the American marketplace and solidifying ties with state and local governments, local manufacturing associations, Congress and new industries. Canada should take advantage of its new trade deal with the U.S. to integrate the Canadian economy as fully into that of the U.S. as possible. There may be others like President Trump or some like him in Canada, who try to disrupt the trade relationship. That even Trump eventually was persuaded to agree to free trade with Canada is evidence, however, that an ever-closer trading relationship is simply a reality that cannot be stopped.
Topic:: Markets, History, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

67. Dismantling and Reconstructing the U.S. Immigration System: A Catalog of Changes under the Trump Presidency

Author:: Sarah Pierce and Jessica Bolter
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Through bold, sweeping changes as well as less-noted technical adjustments, the Trump administration has dramatically reshaped the U.S. immigration system since entering office in January 2017. Now well into its fourth year, the administration has undertaken more than 400 executive actions on immigration, spanning everything from border and interior enforcement, to refugee resettlement and the asylum system, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), the immigration courts, and vetting and visa processes. This reports offers a comprehensive catalog, by topic, of those actions, including their dates and the underlying source materials. The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 gave the administration new openings to push forward many of its remaining immigration policy aims. This period has seen bans on travel and a pause on visa issuance for certain groups of foreign nationals and a further closing off of the U.S.-Mexico border that has effectively ended asylum there. Much of the White House's immigration agenda has been realized in the form of interlocking measures, with regulatory, policy, and programmatic changes driving towards shared policy goals. Though these largely administrative actions could, in theory, be undone by a future administration, this layered approach, coupled with the rapid-fire pace of change, makes it likely that the Trump presidency will have long-lasting effects on the U.S. immigration system.
Topic:: Immigration, Refugees, Citizenship, Borders, Donald Trump, and Asylum
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

68. The War is Dead, Long Live the War? Counterterrorism after the Trump Presidency

Author:: Jonny Hall
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In his re-election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed to be ending America's 'endless wars'. In this Strategic Update, Jonny Hall examines this claim by reviewing the Trump administration's counterterrorism policies over the last four years, showing that although there has been recent concrete progress towards withdrawal, this does not constitute an ending the so-called 'forever wars'.
Topic:: War, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

69. Factsheet: Kayleigh McEnany

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Kayleigh McEnany is a political commentator, devout Christian, and vocal defender of U.S. President Donald Trump. She currently serves as the White House press secretary, and has previously worked for both CNN and Fox News. McEnany has a history of defending and making false, anti-Muslim statements.
Topic:: Politics, Islamophobia, Donald Trump, and Kayleigh McEnany
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

70. Factsheet: Mark Kevin Lloyd

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Mark Kevin Lloyd is a longtime Tea Party activist in Virginia who has a long track record of posting anti-Muslim and misogynist statements on social media. In May 2020 Lloyd was appointed the religious freedom adviser for the US Agency for International Development (USAID) under the administration of Donald Trump.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Donald Trump, USAID, Activism, Mark Kevin Lloyd, and Tea Party
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

71. Trump and Palestine: The Crowning of an American Approach

Author:: Dan Tschirgi
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The American approach to the problem of Palestine long rested on several recognizable pillars: a basic sympathy with the Zionist program, a sincerely felt belief that Palestinian Arabs had largely been victimized by historical forces that the United States itself had found it necessary to serve, and an unstated—but real—feeling of guilt over the key role Washington played in the 1948 birth of the Jewish state. Donald Trump’s presidency upended the long-held US posture on the Palestine issue, making Washington far more amenable to Israel’s growing appetite for Arab Lands taken in 1967. In his first two years in office Trump instituted a series of administrative and economic measures apparently designed to force the PLO’s acceptance of a still-unannounced peace plan. This article suggests that Trump’s strategy will fail.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and United States of America

72. Les médias conservateurs dans la campagne de 2020 : un soutien unanime au président ?

Author:: Sébastien Mort
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: From the 1920s to the 1980s, the American press followed strict discursive practices based on objectivity and fairness. Starting in the 1930s, the country's political center of gravity was on the liberal side and there were few overtly conservative media. From the 1980s onwards, the vast deregulation effort undertaken by the Reagan administration paved the way for the emergence of a powerful conservative media ecosystem. Hosted by strong personalities such as Rush Limbaugh, conservative radio talk-shows were broadcast by a large number of local AM radio stations. Created in 1996, the Fox News channel gained massive traction in the 2000s. Many information websites close to the far right have gradually joined this environment.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Media, Conservatism, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

73. The Battle Heats Up: Climate Issues in the 2020 US Presidential Election

Author:: Arnault Barichella
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Environmental issues have frequently enjoyed bipartisan support in American history: the Clean Air Act was enacted in 1963 under Democratic President Johnson, and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was established in 1970 under Republican President Nixon. This began to change in the 1980s under President Reagan, due to the rise of neoliberal economic theories pioneered by Republicans. Conservatives increasingly viewed environmental regulations as economic impediments. Partisanship on this issue then accelerated throughout the 1990s and 2000s, subject to the influence of powerful lobbying groups. President Bush Jr. refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in 2001, actively promoted fossil fuels, and his administration attempted to cast doubt about the science of climate change. Climate partisanship somewhat abated during the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections, since both McCain and Romney were ‘moderate’ Republicans.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Elections, Legislation, Donald Trump, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

74. Bringing Chaos to Order: Donald Trump and his Band of National Security Advisors

Author:: Eugene Lang
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Two hundred and forty days. That is the average length of tenure – eight months – of the national security advisor to the U.S. president during the past two-and-a-half years. With the resignation or firing (depending on who you listen to) of John Bolton, Donald Trump is now on to his fifth assistant to the president for national security affairs, the official title of the job. It is an historic anomaly of epic proportions. Since the position was created during the Eisenhower administration in the early 1950s, on average national security advisors have served 32 months, exactly four times the average shelf life of Trump’s advisors (and Trump is only just over halfway through his first term of office).1 Revolving doors are of course a hallmark of the Trump administration, but does this one really matter?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, National Security, Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

75. Trump’s Trade Wars: A New World Order?

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: President Donald Trump’s declared economic protectionism has taken the US’s international relations with several foes and allies into uncharted territory. His open-ended trade wars with several nations have triggered criticism among conservatives and liberals alike in the US. He has justified his actions by arguing for a downturn of America’s trade deficit, but the American people don’t seem to be on board with his logic. A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey shows 63% of registered voters believe tariffs imposed on Chinese products ultimately hurt the US more than China, while 74% said American consumers are shouldering most of the burden of those tariffs. The political network funded in part by billionaire libertarian Charles Koch has contested Trump’s approach toward China and is trying to shape an alternative strategy for 2020, the year of the US presidential election. One Koch senior official has acknowledged, “It doesn’t penetrate with the people that are willing to go along with the argument that you have to punish China.” There is now a pursuit of a “two steps back strategy,” which will involve putting together a team of almost 100 business leaders to call on the Trump administration and lawmakers to end the trade war with China. This paper examines the ramifications of President Trump’s policy of economic sanctions and tariffs vis-à-vis several nations and international groupings. It also looks at China’s counter-strategy and considers whether Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia will be caught in the web of the current trade wars.
Topic:: International Relations, Economy, Trade Wars, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

76. Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?

Author:: Emily Blanchard, Chad P. Bown, and Davin Chor
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products and were only partially mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health insurance coverage, affirming the importance of health care as an election issue. A counterfactual calculation suggests that the trade war and health care can account for five and eight of Republicans' lost House seats, respectively.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Trade Wars, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

77. Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Intolerance, and the "First White President"

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In 2016, the United States elected an avowedly protectionist president. This paper uses US county-level electoral data to examine this outcome. The hypothesis that support for protectionism was purely a response to globalization is rejected. Exposure to trade competition encouraged a shift to the Republican candidate, but this effect is mediated by race, diversity, education, and age. If the turn toward protectionism is due to economic dislocation, then public policy interventions could mitigate the impact and support the reestablishment of a political consensus for open trade. If, however, the drivers are identity or cultural values, then the scope for constructive policy intervention is unclear.
Topic:: Economy, Trade, Donald Trump, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

78. The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict after 40 Years of Special Protection

Author:: Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In 2018, the United States suddenly increased tariffs on nearly 50 percent of its imports from China. China immediately retaliated with tariffs on more than 70 percent of imports from the United States. This paper assesses what happened in 2018 and attempts to explain why. It first constructs a new measure of special tariff protection to put the sheer scope and coverage of the 2018 actions into historical context. It then uses the lens provided by the 2018 special tariffs to explain the key sources of economic and policy friction between the two countries. This includes whether China’s state-owned enterprises and industrial subsidies, as well as China’s development strategy and system of forcibly acquiring foreign technology, were imposing increasingly large costs on trading partners. Finally, it also examines whether the US strategy to provoke a crisis—which may result in a severely weakened World Trade Organization—was deliberate and out of frustration with the institution itself.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, Bilateral Relations, Trade Wars, Donald Trump, and Imports
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

79. Survival of the International Monetary Fund and Global Economic Cooperation

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund (IMF)—a quota-based institution—faces a test of its survival as the linchpin of the global financial safety net. Its roughly $1.4 trillion in total financial resources is scheduled to begin to shrink in 2020. In 2015, IMF members committed to strengthening IMF financial resources in the 15th General Review of Quotas, which will end in December 2019. Over the past 25 years, the United States has led the way for a gradual redistribution of IMF quota shares toward faster-growing emerging-market and developing countries. Any significant redistribution of quota shares requires an increase in total quotas. Because of its share of votes in the IMF, the United States must agree to any change in quotas. The Trump administration, however, has signaled that it favors no such change. If the United States does not reverse its stance, IMF members will lose an opportunity to strengthen the institution at a time of global financial uncertainty. Truman says the United States could still change its position and recommends how other member countries should press it to do so.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Politics, International Monetary Fund, Global Political Economy, Donald Trump, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

80. The Return of Economic Nationalism in Germany

Author:: Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: ermany’s new National Industrial Strategy 2030, unveiled by Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in February 2019, advocates an aggressive industrial policy. Although it stays clear of the virulent economic nationalism of the 1930s and the protectionism of President Donald Trump, its tone and much of its content are unmistakably nationalist. Zettelmeyer concludes that three of Altmaier’s five proposals—attempting to further raise the German share of manufacturing, restricting non-EU imports of intermediate goods, and promoting national champions in Germany and the European Union—are bad policies. The two remaining ideas—preventing some foreign takeovers and ramping up state support for certain technologies—are somewhat easier to justify, based on either market failures or the risk of technological dependence on foreign companies susceptible to political interference. But even in these areas, the specific policies proposed may well do more harm than good.
Topic:: Economics, Nationalism, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

81. Space in the Trump Administration's Security Polic

Author:: Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The U.S. will create a new branch of the armed forces to conduct operations in space. This is a response to the increased threat from China and Russia, which are rapidly developing space systems for military use. As a result of the U.S. actions, NATO adopted its first space policy. The effects of this policy also oblige allies who do not have space capabilities and who will have to work out their own policy towards this domain.
Topic:: NATO, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Space Force, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

82. Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Intolerance, and the "First White President"

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In 2016, the United States elected an avowedly protectionist president. This paper uses US county-level electoral data to examine this outcome. The hypothesis that support for protectionism was purely a response to globalization is rejected. Exposure to trade competition encouraged a shift to the Republican candidate, but this effect is mediated by race, diversity, education, and age. If the turn toward protectionism is due to economic dislocation, then public policy interventions could mitigate the impact and support the reestablishment of a political consensus for open trade. If, however, the drivers are identity or cultural values, then the scope for constructive policy intervention is unclear.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Donald Trump, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

83. The Forgotten Americans: An Economic Agenda for a Divided Nation, Isabel Sawhill

Author:: Mark Joseph Stelzner
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: Income inequality in the United States has been increasing rapidly over the last 40 years. This, paired with weak economic growth, means that many Americans have been left behind. In her book, Forgotten Americans: An Economic Agenda for a Divided Nation, Isabel Sawhill proposes a “radical centrist” response of promoting social responsibility, increased vocational and private sector training, and social insurance reform. While inequality is an important issue that needs an immediate response, Sawhill misdiagnoses both the economic and political roots of inequality and proposes a narrow solution that ironically is not radical but parallels much of the policy that created current inequality and Trumpism.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Economy, Book Review, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

84. Assessing President Trump’s Trade Priorities

Author:: Daniel Griswold
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: President Trump has delivered on his promise to shake up Washington, arguably nowhere more so than in the policy space of international trade. President Trump’s trade agenda has challenged more than seven decades of bipartisan policy commitment to seeking lower trade barriers at home and abroad through negotiated agreements. While President Trump pays lip service to pursuing free trade and eliminating tariffs, his trade policies so far have been marked by higher U.S. duties on a range of products, from washing machines to steel. Under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the administration has imposed duties on $250 billion of imports from China, with those duties set to escalate in 2019 absent an agreement with China. And under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the president is threatening to impose a 25 percent duty on imported automobiles in the name of national security. The Trump administration has renegotiated existing trade agreements with Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, but its modifications are as likely to restrict trade as expand it. One of the president’s first actions after assuming office was to withdraw the United States from the pending Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would have eliminated almost all duties with 11 trading partners around the Pacific Rim, including Japan.
Topic:: Economy, Tariffs, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

85. Flawed Plan to Keep Out Welfare‐Using Immigrants

Author:: David Bier
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The Trump administration has proposed a new regulation that would greatly expand an old rule banning legal residence to immigrants deemed “likely to become a public charge”—that is, someone who the government has the responsibility to care for (USCIS 2018). The rule does not, nor could it, change eligibility for welfare programs for noncitizens in the United States. Instead, it requires applicants to prove that they are not likely, in the future, to become so dependent on welfare that they become a “public charge.” Therefore, the question regarding this regulation is not whether it is appropriate for noncitizens to become dependent on welfare, but whether the government will accurately predict their likelihood of doing so.
Topic:: Immigration, Welfare, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

86. Future Scenarios: What To Expect From a Nuclear North Korea

Author:: Daniel R. Russel
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: After decades of broken promises and failed diplomatic efforts, North Korea has become a nuclear power. Kim Jong Un’s charm offensive over the past year, as seen in summit meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders, has enabled him to shed his pariah status without shedding his nuclear weapons. While Kim has frozen testing, he continues to expand the country’s nuclear arsenal, defy and evade Security Council resolutions, and is now getting support from China in his call for sanctions relief. In the wake of the failed February 2019 Hanoi Summit, North Korea is warning of a return to testing by year’s end. But even if Kim were to reverse course and agree to freeze his entire nuclear and missile program, North Korea’s capacity to threaten the U.S. and its allies with a formidable arsenal would be undiminished. What’s worse, Kim seems to be turning to a powerful new weapon of mass destruction to gain leverage. Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy Daniel Russel asserts in this ASPI issue paper that North Korea’s next weapon of choice is likely to be cyber: a high-impact, low-cost, and low-risk digital-age weapon that North Korea already can and does use to steal money, hack secrets, and terrorize nations. In the 5G era, developed nations such as the United States are particularly vulnerable. North Korean cyber-attacks have already succeeded in crippling critical overseas infrastructure and stealing hundreds of millions of dollars, reducing the efficacy of international sanctions. Future Scenarios: What to Expect from a Nuclear North Korea details the consequences of North Korea’s slow but steady trajectory toward acceptance as a nuclear power. The report highlights the urgency of focusing U.S. national security efforts against the threat from North Korea’s rapidly growing cyber warfare capability. Russel writes that the combined threat from North Korea’s nuclear and cyber programs can only be reduced through “coercive containment” — a multi-pronged strategy of diplomacy, defense, deterrence, and denial that will require substantial cooperation among key international players.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Nuclear Power, Cybersecurity, Donald Trump, and Kim Jong-un
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

87. Strong Position How Iran Dealt with Recent Developments in Manbij

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iran quickly supported the advance of the Syrian regular forces towards the Kurdish militias-controlled town of Manbij on 28 December 2018, albeit some parties denied that, which indicate that it has begun to re-calibrate its strategies to deal with the new realities after the decision of the US president Donald Trump to withdraw his military forces from Syria on the 19th of the same month.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Conflict, Syrian War, Kurds, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

88. Preemption: How Iran Is Reacting to the Warsaw Summit

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Following the announcement of hosting an international summit on February 13 and 14, 2019, Iran has launched a diplomatic offensive against Poland, where one of the conference main elements will be how to respond to the Iranian interventions in the region. In addition, Iran has also begun to take preemptive moves both to send messages to the powers concerned with the repercussions of those interventions and to tout its ability to contain the pressures of US policy. These moves include attempts to pivot to the East, particularly towards some neighboring countries, and hints at its ability to withdraw from the nuclear deal and resume its suspicious program again.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Poland, North America, and United States of America

89. Possible Repercussions: Why is Iran Interested in the Venezuelan Crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iran was quick to support President Nicolas Maduro's regime, rejecting any attempt to take over power unlawfully, and at the same time considering the U.S. position on the Venezuelan crisis as a direct interference in its internal affairs. It has even instructed its allied militias, like Hezbollah, to adopt a similar position on the crisis in Caracas.
Topic:: Oil, Hezbollah, Donald Trump, Juan Guaido, and Nicholas Maduro
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, South America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

90. Tough Test: Baghdad’s Options Amid the Iranian-US Escalation

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: While the US prepares to withdraw its troops from Syria, it considers redeploying its troops in Iraq. Although this might not have caused a crisis between the two countries, as the US troops have been in Iraq for the past 15 years, the US president Donald Trump justification for the move, to “watch Iran”, has pushed relations between Washington and Baghdad to this path. To make things worse, this move was accompanied by selecting a site in the Anbar governorate for that purpose, which is to reduce Iran’s movements towards Syria through the Iraqi territory, putting Baghdad in trouble with its frenemies.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Crisis Management, Donald Trump, and Hassan Rouhani
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

91. The Kushner Plan: Economics or politics, which comes first?

Author:: Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: Paul Rivlin analyzes the "Peace to Prosperity A New Vision for the Palestinian People and the Broader Middle East" plan, sometimes known as the "Deal of the Century," and the potential effects of the plan on the West Bank and Gaza.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and West Bank

92. Strengthening US Relations with ASEAN: A Critical Element of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

Author:: East-West Wire
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: With a population of 650 million and an annual GDP of $2.8 trillion, ASEAN is a key component of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Two visitors to the East-West Center, Kavi Chongkittavorn and Anu Anwar, emphasized that the United States needs to take several steps to strengthen working relations with ASEAN. Priorities for the Trump administration include: Attend the annual ASEAN-sponsored East Asia Summit; Establish personal rapport with ASEAN leaders; Participate actively in all ASEAN-led mechanisms, including the ASEAN Regional Forum, the ASEAN Defense Ministerial Meeting Plus, and the Lower Mekong Initiative; Appoint an American envoy to ASEAN, a position that has been vacant for more than 30 months; Maintain the ASEAN-focused programs and activities initiated under previous US administrations; Expand educational, cultural, and youth programs; Strengthen the US-ASEAN security commitment, in particular maritime and cyber security.
Topic:: International Relations, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

93. New U.S. Policies toward Greenland

Author:: Charles E. Morrison and Mark Nuttall
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In the summer of 2019, Greenland received considerable media attention for two developments: Its large ice sheet saw record rates of surface melt with potentially devastating impacts on the oceans, and Donald Trump suggested that the United States should look into buying the island from Denmark. Although Greenland is not for sale, the Greenlandic government welcomes foreign investment and assistance in meeting the island's socio-economic challenges. The United States can also assist Greenland by improving international scientific cooperation on climate change research, helping Greenlanders adapt to a changing climate, and providing global leadership in addressing and mitigating the effects of climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Leadership, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Greenland and United States of America

94. From 'Rebalance to Asia' to 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific': The Development of the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership

Author:: Bich T. Tran
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Under the Obama administration’s Rebalance to Asia, Vietnam gradually gained importance in U.S. foreign policy as the two countries formed a “comprehensive partnership” in 2013. Despite the Trump administration’s America First policy, the United States prioritizes its partnerships with Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries in its Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. While a common concern about China’s behavior in the South China Sea has facilitated the growth of U.S.-Vietnam relations, the foundation of the relationship is cooperation on Vietnam War legacy issues. The two countries have made remarkable progress in advancing diplomatic, economic, and defense ties regardless of remaining challenges. The year 2020 would be ideal for the United States and Vietnam to upgrade the relationship to a “strategic partnership”: it marks the 25th anniversary of the normalization of bilateral relations, Hanoi’s ASEAN chairmanship, and the start of Vietnam’s term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economy, Donald Trump, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:: Asia, Vietnam, and United States of America

95. The Impact of the Trump Administration's Indo-Pacific Strategy on Regional Economic Governance

Author:: Kaewkamol Karen Pitakdumrongkit
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Trump administration's Indo-Pacific regional economic governance strategy addresses trade, investment, and infrastructure development. Its reception by regional states varies by issue area, with infrastructure and investment being positively received, and trade being negatively received. To alleviate policy clashes and lessen the “noodle bowl” effect of overlapping rules and regulations, this paper suggests that American and Asian governments should: (1) immediately pursue collaboration in the areas of investment and infrastructure; (2) advance investment cooperation via capacity training and investment treaty consolidation; (3) enhance infrastructure collaboration via the Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development Act of 2018 (or BUILD Act of 2018), joint ventures, public-private partnerships, and capacity training; (4) push forward trade cooperation via formal and Track 2 (informal networks) dialogue to facilitate a policymaking process; and (5) encourage more inter-bloc dialogue.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Partnerships, Economy, Investment, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: United States of America and Indo-Pacific

96. Rejecting Retreat

Author:: Dina Smeltz, Ivo H. Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Brendan Helm
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The upending of US foreign policy under the Trump administration, the revolt against establishment politicians, and the rise of the progressive wing in US politics has led many foreign policy experts to conclude that Americans want to retreat from the world. Much of Washington and its foreign policy elite believe that “Iraq and other debacles” have left Americans wearied, worried, and inclined toward either America First or retrenchment ideas.1 They believe the American public sees the rules-based international order established after World War II as bankrupt. But that is not what the American public actually thinks. Americans may be searching for a new way to make sense of the world. But the 2019 Chicago Council Survey demonstrates that retreating from the world, abdicating international leadership, and abandoning alliances and global institutions is not what the American public has in mind.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Leadership, Alliance, Institutions, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

97. While Positive toward US Alliance, South Koreans Want to Counter Trump’s Demands on Host-Nation Support

Author:: Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: From December 9 to 11, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs conducted a poll in South Korea on South Korean attitudes toward the United States, the alliance between the two countries, and the ongoing negotiations about host-nation financial support.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, Alliance, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

98. Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions

Author:: Ellie Geranmayeh and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Secondary sanctions have become a critical challenge for Europe, due to the Trump administration’s maximalist policy on Iran and its aggressive economic statecraft. Europe’s vulnerabilities mostly result from asymmetric interdependence with the US economy, due to the size of US markets and the global role of the US dollar. In future, states will likely weaponise economic interdependence with the EU to target countries that are more important to the European economy than Iran, such as China and Russia. European countries should demonstrate that, despite their economic interdependence with the US, they control EU foreign policy. The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy, begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions, and prepare to adopt asymmetric countermeasures against any country that harms European interests through secondary sanctions. They should also attempt to bolster the global role of the euro and lead a robust international dialogue on the role of sanctions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, North America, and United States of America

99. Europe can spearhead a new cycle in transatlantic relations, not President Trump

Author:: Martin Michelot
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Transatlantic cooperation has, ever since the election of President Donald Trump, been a topic of contention and concern in Europe, and created a lot of questions regarding whether the fundamentals of the transatlantic relationship were being questioned. Concerns about US engagement in NATO, a potential dissonant threat perception towards and relationship with China and Russia, and the tensions around trade agreements, and in general a perceived defiance of international liberal order are all issues that have ranked high on the agenda of European leaders since early 2017, and that continue to represent - among other issues - topics that require a deeper discussion at the political and the expert level.
Topic:: NATO, Engagement, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

100. Keynote Lecture: The Future of Transatlantic Relations: Looking beyond President Trump

Author:: Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Keynote lecture by Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Senior Fellow, Director of the Think Tank German Marshall Plan Fund of the United States’ Paris Office, Associate Professor at Sciences Po Paris.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Affairs, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS