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1. Infrastructures, energy and digitalisation: pillars for the sustainable development of transport in the Western Mediterranean

Author:
Mark Furness, Jordi Selfa, Sassi Hammami, Pier Paolo Raimondi, and Michel Noussan
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
With the Russian aggression on Ukraine and the war in Gaza being prolonged over time the Mediterranean region at large is in total turmoil. The Policy Study entitled “Infrastructures, energy and digitalisation, pillars for the sustainable development of transport in the Western Mediterranean” aims at contributing with shared reflections and formulation of policy proposals to the challenges and strategies that the region faces in the field of promoting sustainable development in the transport sector. To this end, the Policy Study delves into this topic from these three cross-cutting dimensions in the Western Mediterranean: infrastructures, energy and environment, and digitalisation. The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Centre for Transportation Studies for the Western Mediterranean (CETMO) have taken on this stimulating task by continuing for a third year the preparation of a Policy Study that involves various authors who are experts in the field, while also unveiling some recommendations of public policy addressed to the Presidency of the Group of Transport Ministers for the Western Mediterranean (GTMO 5+5). Indeed, this publication released as a Policy Study comes within the framework of the Med Think 5+5 network of Western Mediterranean think tanks, a multidisciplinary platform of exchange associated with the 5+5 Dialogue, which brings together policymakers, practitioners and academics from the Western Mediterranean area. Considering transport and logistics as one of the most relevant sectors to foster socio-economic development and regional integration in the Western Mediterranean, the Med Think 5+5 network has been committed to promoting debate and knowledge-sharing on the issue, building upon support and expertise of the CETMO as Technical Secretariat of the Group of Transport Ministers for the Western Mediterranean (GTMO 5+5). As a matter of fact, the Med Think 5+5 convened seminars (2018, 2021) dedicated to the analysis of trends in the Western Mediterranean transport and logistics sectors, organised back-to-back with the GTMO 5+5. In this context, this Policy Study, which is part of the work programme of GTMO 5+5 under the Maltese presidency, aims at giving response to the challenges posed by climate change in the region and how the transport sector can counter it and adapt to it through digitalisation, the transformation and connection of transport with infrastructures and energy.
Topic:
Infrastructure, European Union, Transportation, Energy, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
China, Europe, North Africa, and Mediterranean

2. Contribution of Finance and Transport Indicators on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Eurasian Countries

Author:
Kenan Ilarslan and Tuğrul Bayat
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Carbon emission is one of the most significant causes of environmental degradation, global warming, and extraordinary meteorological events. It has reached a level that threatens the future of countries and human beings. To combat carbon emission, it is necessary to know the causes for developing policies. Environmental quality is a fundamental aspect of sustainable development in economies worldwide. In this context, Eurasian geography has always been an important region in the history of the world with its location, underground, and surface resources. Today, the region makes its strategic importance even more evident. The communist USSR ruled Eurasian countries, which served as a buffer between the Western world and China for many years. These countries, which gained their independence in the 1990s, have not yet fully captured the values of the modern world, such as democracy and a free market economy. This study focuses on Eurasian countries. This study aimed to determine the factors affecting carbon emissions. Foreign direct investment and transportation contribute significantly to carbon emission, which reduces environmental quality. Therefore, in this study, we investigated whether rail and road passenger transport and foreign direct investment affect carbon emission in Eurasian countries. The concurrent panel quantile regression method was used to estimate this relationship between 1992 and 2020. The results revealed that rail and road passenger transport and foreign direct investment increase emissions. Additionally, no clear result could be obtained regarding the effect of the GDP per capita variable. To support these findings, analyses were performed using the robust quantile regression method, and strong empirical evidence was obtained, particularly for the impacts of foreign direct investment and rail passenger transport on emissions.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Transportation, Carbon Emissions, and Quantile Regression
Political Geography:
Eurasia

3. Determinants of Air Transport in the BRICS-T Countries: Findings from Panel Data Analysis

Author:
Şevket Pazarcı, Emre Kılıç, Asım Kar, and Sıla Kale
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the factors that determine air transport in the BRICS countries, which account for approximately 42% of the world’s population and occupy an important position among developing countries in terms of economic size. In more detail, in this study, air transport examines two different models, passenger and freight transport. The research is carried out for the period 1996-2020. Panel data methods were used as analysis methods. According to the results of the analysis, both air passenger transport and air freight transport act together with their macroeconomic and socioeconomic determinants in the long term. Income is positive and significant in the air passenger transportation model, while income is insignificant in the freight transportation model. In addition, inflation, exchange rate, industrialisation and urbanisation on a country basis are important determinants of both air passenger transport and air freight transport for BRICS-T.
Topic:
Economics, Transportation, Data, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Italy’s National Energy and Climate Plan and Road Transport: An Appraisal

Author:
Pier Paolo Raimondi and Michel Noussan
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Italian government has recently submitted the final version of its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP),[1] which outlines Italian measures to achieve its national climate targets by 2030 in line with the objectives set by the European Union. To do so, Italy has put forward targets, strategies and measures also for the decarbonisation of transport, which remains among the hardest to decarbonise. While Italy’s greenhouse gas emissions due to energy consumption have decreased by 21 per cent from 1990 to 2022, those related to transport have increased by 8 per cent in the same period. Moreover, the transport sector accounted for 27 per cent of national emissions in 2022, with road transport alone accounting for 92 per cent of those emissions.[2] Against this backdrop, it is important to assess the main targets and political implications of Italy’s NECP related to both private cars and heavy-duty road transport (buses and trucks) in order to identify potential gaps and opportunities to reach Italy’s climate targets.
Topic:
Climate Change, Transportation, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

5. Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations Improving

Author:
Aleksandra Maria Spancerska and Wojciech Wojtasiewicz
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The fifth round of negotiations between Türkiye and Armenia, held on 30 July, offers hope for an acceleration of the normalisation of their relations, including the opening of borders between the countries. However, the success of the negotiations depends on the settlement of Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan. Such an agreement would unblock transport routes in the South Caucasus region, as well as increase the presence of the EU and Poland in the region.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Borders, Negotiation, Transportation, Normalization, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Poland, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

6. Decarbonization alternatives for the maritime transport sector in Brazil: 2024

Author:
CEBRI
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
In the current context, where mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is a global priority, the maritime sector faces a significant challenge: meeting the growing demand for energy due to the increase in the transport of goods and people while working to reduce its carbon emissions. The central question is how to address these challenges in a way that is both technically feasible and economically efficient. This report, available in Portuguese, provides an update on the document “Decarbonization Alternatives for the Maritime Transport Sector in Brazil,” published in 2023. The main objective is to analyze possible actions for the decarbonization of the Brazilian maritime sector. The study examines the current state of maritime transport in Brazil and explores various options for emission reductions. Furthermore, the report identifies opportunities for collaboration between the maritime sectors of Brazil and Norway through a comparative analysis of initiatives implemented for decarbonization. This analysis is essential for understanding how Brazil can advance in adopting more sustainable practices and effectively contribute to the fight against climate change.
Topic:
Maritime, Transportation, Sustainability, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

7. Security Threats to Trade Management During the Mughal Era in South Asia (1500-1750)

Author:
Waqas Ahmed Khan, Mohammad Irfan Ali, and Muhammad Usman Askari
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Roads were developed by humans in ancient times. With the passage of time these structures went through development and took form of modern highways. A complex structure of road network existed in Indian sub-continent during imperialism in South Asia. When Mughals developed their Empire, they further developed that road network. These routes were used for various purposes like local as well as interstate trade, postal services, and movement of royal army. Individual travelers and caravans also moved on those roads. Valuable items were carried by travelers on these routes hence various groups of professional robbers, thieves and thugs were gradually formed who robbed and killed travelers. Mughal Emperors took various measures to address this issue. Administrative officers were given the task to make arrangements to provide security to travelers. Rest houses (Sarai) were made, check posts were created and local responsibility law was continued which required local village heads to provide security on roads which were present near their villages. A strong spying network was established which kept the emperor well informed about the happenings in the state. Culprits were either killed in encounters with Mughal troops or captured by the village vigil force or they were presented before Emperor and Judges who punished these criminals.
Topic:
Security, History, Transportation, and Mughal Empire
Political Geography:
South Asia

8. Transport and Transit Policy of Kazakhstan and the Silk Road Region

Author:
Bulat Auelbeyev and Aidar Kurmashev
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Since the emergence of independent states in the post-Soviet space, it has been predicted that the Silk Road region (i.e., what is usually called core or central Eurasia) could become a global strategic hub, due to both geopolitical and geoeconomic conditions. The region’s mid-continental position offers great opportunities for its core countries—particularly those located on its Central Asian side. Concomitantly, the region has attracted the attention of various centers of power—both regional and global. Furthermore, the development of trans-regional transport networks remains a hot topic, and the issue of communication development is on the agenda of almost all high-level international meetings. The already popular C5+1 format, in which various regional and world powers offer their cooperation to the Central Asian Five, also contains aspects of transport corridor development. Indeed, land transport corridors crossing the Silk Road region could create a new reality in the future. Modern logistics and transportation technologies make it possible to connect regions across the continent quickly and reliably. At the same time, states will seek to reduce the effect of non-physical barriers. This, in turn, will affect the relationship and security of all participants along the these corridors and beyond.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Transportation, and Transition
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

9. Urban Politics in the Middle East

Author:
Mona Harb, Marc Lynch, Jillian Schwedler, Gehad Abaza, and Munqeth Othman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Urban politics has received growing attention in the anthropology, sociology, and political science of the MENA region. In line with global trends, questions of scale, territory, flows and connectivities and materialities have come to the fore, with a wide range of creative and novel lines of inquiry connecting the global to the hyper-local and every scale in between. In February 2023, POMEPS partnered with the Beirut Urban Lab at the American University of Beirut and The Policy Initiative think tank for a workshop in Beirut to bring together an interdisciplinary group of young scholars from across the region to explore questions of urban life, politics, and culture. The papers moved beyond more traditional political science topics such as municipal government, decentralization, clientelistic voting, protests, and clientelism. While those themes certainly operated in the background, the authors assembled in Beirut pushed to shift the lens towards multi-scalar ethnographic modes of inquiry, highlighting the materialities and relationalities of the hyper-local, examining sites and places which concentrate power dynamics.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, Race, Religion, Sectarianism, Culture, Syrian War, Mobility, Urban, Trade, Music, Transportation, Cities, Heritage, Resistance, Labor Market, Domestic Work, and Urbicide
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, Baghdad, Algeria, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Beirut, Cairo, Tunis, and Aqaba

10. Towards Enhanced Connectivity and Sustainability in the Mediterranean Transport and Logistics Sector. Trends in Trade, Maritime Transport, and Sustainability

Author:
Enric Ticó, Ghazi Ben Ahmed, Paul Tourret, Maite Roman, and Jordi Torrent
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Mediterranean Sea has currently become one of the main centres of international transport through which large quantities of goods are moved every year. Its position as a strategic transit area for a large amount of goods, especially transported by sea, makes it a logistical node of capital importance. According to the report of the Spanish Short Sea Shipping Statistical Observatory (SSS) for the year 2021, overall SSS traffic on the Mediterranean coast increased by 26.9%, exceeding the pre-pandemic figures. The Mediterranean geographical area is characterised, among other things, by the great heterogeneity of countries and actors that are present in the institutional, political, economic, and even social spheres, as it is the meeting point of three continents. This means that, although the movement of goods is a very active sector, there is still much room for improvement in the development of trade among actors of such an area (it has more strength as a logistic node than as a commerce centre itself). The strengthening of trade relations between all countries of the Mediterranean area should have a positive impact on a global level, facilitating the joint development of all those countries. However, the aforementioned existing heterogeneity at the political and economic level sometimes acts as a brake or blocking factor in the development and commercial collaboration among the parties. The first, or simplest, analysis of the applicable regimes or the nature of transactions would be that of a North-South division. This makes sense due to the fact that the majority of the northern front countries are members of the European Union (EU) and, consequently, of the Customs Territory of the Union (CTU), while the remaining are sovereign and independent countries with a very heterogeneous profile, including political or cultural issues. This makes difficult the establishment of stable and long-lasting relations among the parties. We are therefore far from being able to consider that there is a trade regime specific to the Mediterranean Sea, or to companies in such area, apt for the facilitation of international transactions. The current situation represents a historic opportunity for this commercial development: the pandemic has led to a change in production patterns, bringing them closer to the areas of consumption and, therefore, to the Mediterranean Sea itself. Certain supply chains will shift from global to regional, so the improvement of the area’s supply chain is key.
Topic:
Transportation, Sustainability, Logistics, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
Mediterranean

11. Cheaper and Faster: The Role of Air Services Agreements on Transportation

Author:
Charlotte Emlinger and Amélie Guillen
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We assess the impact of bilateral air services agreements (ASAs) on air transportation using an unique dataset providing direct observations of bilateral air transport cost and time for a standardized good, for 1,190 country-pairs, between 2011 and 2015. Our results show that ASAs reduce transportation cost by 8% while they only impact transportation time for landlocked countries and RTA members. Our estimates also reveal that bilateral trade decreases cost of transport, which highlights the role of backhauling in air transportation.
Topic:
Trade, Transportation, and Air Services Agreement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. The Emissions Reduction Potential for Freight Transport on a High-speed Rail Line Along the ‘European Silk Road’

Author:
Erica Angers, Aleksandr Arsenev, and Mario Holzner
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This report estimates the CO2 emissions of freight transport on a hypothetical high-speed rail (HSR) line along the northern route, from Lyon to Warsaw, of a ‘European Silk Road’ (ESR). Using a methodology consisting of predictions regarding the freight-carrying capacity of the future HSR, and the commodity-level switchover, our results indicate that a best-case scenario, at a project lifecycle of 60 years, in which all trains run with 257 tonnes of load, provides for a reduction of 176.2 Mt of net CO2 emissions compared with current levels. These lifespan savings are comparable to a reduction of net emissions by close to 24% of the overall EU transport sector emissions (excluding air transport) of one year (as measured by the net emissions in 2018). The net negative emissions in the optimistic full-capacity scenario will compensate for the construction costs in 13 years. Thus, the potential for emission reduction along the northern route of the ESR is quite substantial, given that this is just one line, with limited capacity. This hints at the importance that bold missions, such as the construction of a pan-European HSR network, could have for the definition of a European Green Industrial Policy that is capable of supporting the fulfilment of the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Infrastructure, European Union, Economic Growth, Transportation, Logistics, Ecology, and Green Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

13. China's Green Transition Policies and Its Implications for Korea

Author:
Won Seok Choi
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In China, carbon emissions from the energy and heat producing sector account for 53.4% of total emissions, with industry (28.6%) and transportation (8.9%) being the main carbon emission sectors. Therefore, various green transition policies in energy, industry and transportation are being pursued in Chinese cities. In Chinese cities, the promotion of rooftop-distributed photovoltaic power generation, among renewable energy sources, is evaluated to be capable of intensive development, reducing power peak load, and inducing residents to consume green energy. Policies are being implemented in urban industries to reduce pollution and carbon emissions, increase energy use efficiency, improve resource use levels, and improve green manufacturing systems. In the transportation sector, China's policies to reduce emissions, expand the supply of new energy vehicles, and strengthen green transportation technology are representative. Consequently, this study summarizes the policy implications, areas of Korea-China cooperation, and risk factors of China's green transition promotion plan for its Chinese cities.
Topic:
Transportation, Industry, Carbon Emissions, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Korea

14. Assessing the importance of new corridors in the South Caucasus in the context of the RussianUkrainian war

Author:
Murad Agayev
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
This article analyzes the possibilities of a new corridor in the South Caucasus region in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The research is important because after the 44-day war, fertile conditions for new opportunities have emerged in the South Caucasus region. The RussianUkrainian war and the resulting damage to the transport sector, like other sectors, necessitated the creation and use of alternative routes. The questioning of the security of the Black Sea due to the war and the closing of the European space for Russia created a problem for the countries that used Russia and the Black Sea to reach Europe. These countries are already evaluating alternative opportunities to the corridors. One of these possibilities is the Middle Corridor project, which has seen an increase in the volume of transported cargo since its inception, except during the pandemic period. During the war, the shortest possible transport corridor from China to Europe will be provided after the financial investment in the infrastructure and the integration of the Zangezur Corridor into the Middle Corridor, and work on this process is currently being continued. The North-South Corridor, which has been discussed for a long time however has not gained much popularity, gained even more importance during the war, and the works related to the construction of the infrastructure of the corridor were accelerated.
Topic:
Security, Infrastructure, Transportation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

15. Striking evidence: The impact of railway strikes on competition from intercity bus services in Germany

Author:
Matthias Beestermöller, Levke Jessen-Thiesen, and Alexander Sandkamp
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the impact of the largest rail strikes in German history on intercity buses – a then newly liberalised market. Using unique booking data of bus services, we exploit variation in rail service cancellations across routes to show that the disruption in rail transport increases bus ticket sales. Crucially, the effect persists beyond the strike, indicating that travellers do not return to their originally preferred mode of transport. It is particularly pronounced for passengers travelling on weekends. The findings suggest that customers were previously under-experimenting. Beyond transportation, our results highlight the importance of service reliability, as temporary disruptions can cause customers to permanently switch to competitors.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Business, Transportation, and Labor Strike
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

16. EU-Pacific Talks: In-EV-itable future of automotive industry: what is the role of the Pacific region

Author:
Petra Pospíšilová
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In the last debate of the second series of EU-Pacific Talks, organised by EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, the guests focused on electric and fuel cell vehicles, which are envisaged as a way to decarbonise road transport. Read what our guests discussed in this report by Petra Pospíšilová.
Topic:
European Union, Transportation, Decarbonization, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia-Pacific

17. How to Meet the Industrial Challenge of Electric Mobility in France and in Europe

Author:
Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, Diana-Paula Gherasim, Clémentine Vannier, and Adam Contu
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
How to Meet the Industrial Challenge of Electric Mobility in France and in Europe Notes de l'Ifri, November 2023 The deployment at scale of electric mobility in France and in Europe withholds significant industrial, societal, geopolitical, and financial challenges, against the backdrop of strategic dependencies along the value chain of the electric vehicle (EV). A certain lack of vision of the value chain as a whole, of the needs and objectives at each stage, and of how to ensure consistency and follow-up over time adds up to the concerns of industry players, who not only need to catch up from a technology point of view, but also to innovate, to secure the value chains, the workforce, the supply in low-carbon affordable energy and to scale up production and recycling capacities. Gigafactories are a major industrial step forward but should not obscure the complex and much broader nature of the battery value chain, and more generally of EVs’ value chain. This note summarizes the key findings of Ifri’s extensive study with the same name and its ten key recommendations for overcoming the industrial challenges of electric mobility deployment in France and Europe: Developing a holistic approach to the supply of critical raw materials, focusing on five key areas: domestic extraction, refining, mining diplomacy and environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards and recycling. Ensuring the stable and competitive supply of low-carbon electricity. Building integrated partnerships with European players at all stages of the EV value chain, with a view in particular to rapidly securing a certain number of cathode and anode active material (CAM and AAM) and precursor cathode active material (PCAM) production capacities, and supporting innovation in battery chemistry, which is the only way for Europeans to distinguish themselves from China. Planning in order to acquire an integrated mastery of the value chain, to develop the skills and train the workforce. Moderating the demand in critical raw materials as a key to resilience, as alternative means of transport, fewer car sales and smaller batteries, contribute to reduce the future increase in raw material needs. Re-imagining mobility to make it more sustainable, accessible, and fair. Setting up and calibrating a support system for the deployment of the different stages of the electric mobility value chain in France, whose cost to the national budget could be in the region of €8-9 billion a year, over the next few years. Protecting industries from unfair and less virtuous practices. Exploiting the growth of electric mobility to strengthen the integration of variable renewable energies into power systems. Ensuring that the European Union (EU) has the appropriate resources to meet the multiple industrial and technological challenges linked to EVs in the context of polycrises. Only some of these have been covered in this study, as EVs cannot be reduced to batteries alone, and involve many other key equipment and issues, hence the need to have an EV based approach, as opposed to one centered around battery-cells.
Topic:
Mobility, Transportation, Energy, Electric Vehicles, Energy Transition, and Greenhouse Gas
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Global Focus

18. Supporting E-mobility Start-ups in Africa

Author:
Charles Odoom and George Baffour Awuah
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:
Transitioning to low-polluting transportation in congested African cities is crucial to improving public health and environmental quality of life while dealing with transport-linked greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Across Africa there are promising cases of local e-mobility start-ups, such as Ghana’s Solar Taxi providing sustainable mobility solutions through innovative business models. They are evolving battery chemistries, designing charging infrastructure and building markets through unique demand and purchase incentives designs. However, accelerated growth of the nascent sector is limited by multiple firm, consumer and investor level challenges, most of which are reflections of poor and/or lack of government policy, regulatory and other support measures. The prospect of a mature e-mobility ecosystem offering sustainable mobility solutions requires a comprehensive policy framework that integrates all relevant concerns. Localization of EV value chains requires regional alliances and collaboration and active support of start-ups in building partnerships with multinational enterprises in the e-mobility space.
Topic:
Mobility, Transportation, Air Pollution, and Startup
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

19. Forecasts of Electric Vehicle Penetration and its Impact on Global Oil Demand

Author:
Marianne Kah, Hon Xing Wong, and Jasmine Chiu
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of global oil demand, with passenger vehicles and trucks making up by far the largest fraction. Many countries with decarbonization goals therefore seek to expand electrification of road transport to meaningfully decrease reliance on this fossil fuel. The degree to which electric vehicle (EV) penetration can alter global oil demand has implications for whether more stringent government decarbonization policies will be needed to reach net zero targets. This report, part of an oil and gas research initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, compiles medium- and long-term forecasts of EV penetration and addresses the question of whether the sharp increase in EV sales in recent years—a fourfold rise from 2019 to 2021—is projected to continue or even accelerate. It compares survey responses from 14 entities, including governments, think tanks, oil companies, consultants, and investment banks in the fourth quarter of 2021 with a similar survey conducted in 2019. The report examines forecasts for passenger EV sales and fleet share as well as those for electric commercial trucks out to 2050, and considers some of the key underlying drivers of passenger vehicle oil demand (e.g., population growth, GDP growth, battery cost trends). Some forecasters offered multiple scenarios, including business as usual (BAU), carbon constrained, and net zero carbon emissions (NZ) by 2050, with meaningfully different results. Overall, survey respondents anticipate an acceleration in the rate of EV penetration in passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks in the medium and long term, both in terms of sales and the ensuing share of the total fleet.
Topic:
Oil, Fossil Fuels, Transportation, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Welfare Implications of Electric Bike Subsidies: Evidence from Sweden

Author:
Anders Anderson and Harrison Hong
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. transportation account for about 29 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, making it the largest contributor by sector to global warming in the United States. Within the U.S. transportation sector, cars are responsible for 58 percent of all transportation emissions according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Along with electric cars, electric bikes (also known as pedelecs or e‑bikes) are a potentially important tool to address global warming. With rechargeable batteries, they are capable of long distances and hence can replace car trips for work in dense and growing urban areas around the world.
Topic:
Climate Change, Welfare, Transportation, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Europe and Sweden

21. Modernizing Ukraine’s Transport and Logistics Infrastructure

Author:
Romina Bandura, Janina Staguhn, and Benjamin Jensen
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine is yielding devastating human and material costs. But with the destruction comes a rare opportunity to modernize Ukraine’s economy by building state-of-the-art infrastructure. Rebuilding hospitals, schools, and housing will be critical to bringing refugees back, while constructing new roads and rail networks alongside ports and airfields could catalyze the economic reconstruction and link the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to global supply chains and markets. Infrastructure investments can achieve a rare combination of political and economic objectives, connecting Ukraine to Europe while helping its large industrial base and educated workforce reach global markets. In other words, rebuilding the transportation and logistics infrastructure in Ukraine provides an opportunity for democratic leaders to realize the vision of the Group of Seven (G7) Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). A successful reconstruction would include a Ukraine that is connected to and firmly embedded in the Euro-Atlantic community. Ukraine has a large industrial base, with a well-educated and skilled population that has the potential to build a highly competitive manufacturing sector to complement the European Union. However, to unlock this potential, Ukraine needs to build quality transport and logistics infrastructure (i.e., civilian airports, roads, bridges, ports, and railways) connected to the West. Over the next 10 years, the transport and logistics infrastructure sector will require significant financing, prioritization, and coordination among the Ukrainian government and international actors (bilateral partners, multilateral institutions, and the private sector). Foreign direct investment (FDI), including through long-term public-private partnership and concession contracts financed by the private sector, will also be critical for funding large-scale projects and providing know-how so there is a world-class infrastructure base in Ukraine. International donors and foreign investors need to assess how to best support Ukraine’s future economic and trade recovery, specifically regarding its transport and logistics infrastructure. Ukraine can also be the country where the PGII conducts its first project, testing its capabilities and providing a demonstration for other investors.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Modernization, Transportation, and Logistics
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

22. Connectivity in Central Asia at the Crossroads of International Crises: Transport, Energy and Water from Interdependence to New Cooperation Ways

Author:
Michaël Levystone
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
From the reestablishment of an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan by the Taliban to the war in Ukraine, not forgetting climate change, the most serious international crises, whether circumstantial or systemic, are having a severe impact on connectivity in Central Asia with regard to transport, energy, and water. While the search, which is an existential one for the countries of this landlocked region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), for foreign partners has been legitimized and even encouraged by the troubling context in which they are evolving, the steps they have taken in this respect since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, show an obvious desire to bypass Russia, which has been heavily sanctioned by the West. As a result, Central Asian transportation networks are developing in two directions: to the west, with Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea as key links in Sino-European trade routes; and to the south, whether by sea (development of port links from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and Iran) or by land (creation of a railway line between Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan). In the energy sector, Kazakhstan, hindered by Russian blockades of its main oil pipeline, is turning to the Caspian Sea in order to be able to continue transporting oil to European markets. Turkmenistan exports its gas to the Chinese and South Asian markets, where its projects, but also those of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the field of hydropower, are being hampered by developments in Afghanistan. Lastly, the question of water highlights the paradox of interdependent countries that are divided between those that control Central Asia's water resources (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) and the rest, located downstream of the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan). While a growing number of initiatives are being launched to promote smart management of the region's significant water resources, this remains the most polarizing issue in Central Asia, despite its urgent nature.
Topic:
Water, Regional Integration, Transportation, Connectivity, and Energy
Political Geography:
Central Asia

23. Belt and Road Initiative vs. Baltic Sea Region. The perspectives of the container transport market in Poland

Author:
Aleksandra Bartosiewicz and Paulina Szterlik
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Poland is a key element of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is also an active container shipping participant in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The aim of the article is to determine whether further development of the BRI is a threat for the Polish BSR container shipping, and vice versa. The main tools used to achieve the objectives mentioned above include a literature review, logical reasoning and statistical analysis. The results of a survey on the importance of chosen factors for the further development of the BRI in Poland, as well as the SWOT analysis of these factors are also part of the proposed study. The performed research shows that such factors as expansion of deep water infrastructure, the increase of seaport transhipment potential or competitiveness of the BSR are among biggest threats to the future of the BRI in Poland. At the same time, it seems that in the near future, the further development of the BRI will not significantly affect the container shipping in the BSR.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Maritime, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Transportation, and Logistics
Political Geography:
China, Baltic Sea, and Baltic States

24. India's Regional Connectivity and Indo-Pacific Partnerships

Author:
Constantino Xavier
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Standing by one of the India-Nepal border pillars near Jogbani, Bihar State, one gets a ground view of the paradox of geographic proximity and lack of connectivity in South Asia. Through treaty and tradition between the two neighbors, this is an open border. In practice, however, the terrain and lack of infrastructure poses a formidable barrier to the rising demands of modern-day mobility. Whether it is trade, tourism, or transportation, this border still separates more than it connects.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Tourism, Regional Integration, Borders, Mobility, Trade, and Transportation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Nepal

25. Egypt transport policies 2014-2021

Author:
Mohamed Hegazy
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Egyptian Ministry of Transport’s1 YouTube channel provides an excellent documentation of the far-reaching changes taking place in the transport sector in Egypt: new highways connecting cities and new bridges; new train carriages for the national railways; new public transport systems such as the Metro, Monorail and Electric train. Between 2014 and 2021 the Egyptian state has invested 1 trillion EGP (~63.6 billion USD) in the transport sector2 in its bid to achieve sustainable development3 . This paper seeks to examine policies and state investments in the transport sector from a sustainable development perspective, focusing on the environmental and social dimensions.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Transportation, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, and MENA

26. The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Transport Networks and the Role of Georgia

Author:
Davit Shatakishvili
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for five months, and it can be said that it is a war that has changed the world, and not only in military and security terms. In this edition of “The Security Review”, we will discuss the food, energy, and transportation aspects of this conflict. Davit Shatakishvili describes the impact of the war on international transportation, and focuses on the changes Georgia has to adjust for.
Topic:
Transportation, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Georgia

27. Transportation and National Security

Author:
Yossi Daskal
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Congestion on the roads, traffic accidents, and rising levels of air pollution – transportation affects the health, economy, and well-being of the residents of Israeli Therefore, discussions of national security must include deliberations on improving transportation in Israel
Topic:
Security, Infrastructure, Public Policy, and Transportation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. E-mobility: An OPPORTUNITY for Central-Eastern Europe

Author:
Michal Hrubý
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The transition to e-mobility is happening more slowly in CEE than other parts of Europe and even faces resistance from some quarters, which was heavily debated at the conference. Although some CEE policymakers might pretend as if this path is not yet decided – especially challenging since leadership is one of the characteristics most needed to seize the e-mobility opportunity – the private sector realizes the opposite.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Mobility, Innovation, and Transportation
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

29. The Western Mediterranean Transport and Logistics Sector in the Post-Covid-19 Era: Seizing New Opportunities, Accelerating Transitions

Author:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The COVID-19 and its socioeconomic consequences have been affecting trade and supply chains worldwide for the last two years. Although global connectivity has been reduced, the transport and logistics sector has played a key role to ensure the continuous provision of food and goods in all regions of the world. This crisis has been somewhat perceived as an accelerator of the processes that were and will continue to affect the sector in the upcoming years: the digital transformation, the sustainability transition, and the growing awareness of the vulnerabilities of global value chains. This emerging context poses significant challenges to the sector together with great opportunities in a region such as the Western Mediterranean. Understanding them to design the adequate policies that will allow the transport and logistics sector to play its crucial role as a driver for regional integration and prosperity is essential.
Topic:
Economics, Transportation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Mediterranean

30. Traditional Services Trade in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Author:
Zhang Yan and Shandre Mugan Thangavelu
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Traditional services trade (TST), including tourism and transport services, is the basic and key component of services trade in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The implementation of RCEP will provide a platform for further liberalisation in TST, thus effectively promoting the growth of the whole service trade and the development of the travel and transportation industry. In this paper we will first show the trade pattern of TST in RCEP. Then, the commitments by each RCEP member will be thoroughly analysed, and the Hoekman index will be constructed to measure the liberalisation levels for the RCEP members. In the last section, we outline some impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on TST and propose policy implications for RCEP in the post pandemic era.
Topic:
Economics, Tourism, Services, and Transportation
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

31. 475,106 Mistakes: The Cost of Erroneous Parking Tickets

Author:
Kasey Henricks
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:
In this report we analyze nearly 3.6 million parking tickets issued in Chicago between August 2012 and May 2018 where complying with parking restrictions depended on time, weather, and location restrictions and identified that more than one in eight tickets (13.2%) were issued in error. Erroneous tickets served as a $35.5 million dividend for the City of Chicago during the six years the analysis covered. The 475,106 erroneous tickets we identified in this period generated more than $27.5 million in revenue. Furthermore, only 7% of tickets written under false pretenses are contested, and nine of the 10 community areas with the lowest appeal rates are majority Latinx. More than 20% of inaccurate tickets are subject to late penalties and majority Black community areas represent the 20 community areas with the highest percentage of late penalties tied to flawed tickets. While paying a ticket or taking the time to contest it may be minor inconveniences for some, these erroneous parking tickets amplify the vulnerability of those already vulnerable.
Topic:
Minorities, Discrimination, Police, Transportation, and Cars
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

32. Measuring illicit financial flows: A gravity model approach to estimate international trade misinvoicing

Author:
Lourenço S. Paz
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Illicit financial flows have recently attracted the attention of academia, practitioners, and multilateral organizations who consider them harmful to economic development. Some observers suggest that many of these flows occur via the misinvoicing of international trade transactions. This study develops a novel methodology based on the gravity model of international trade to estimate illicit financial flows using publicly available product-level international trade data. It contributes to the literature by estimating product-level transportation and insurance costs and providing, for the first time, an estimation for all countries of an upper bound of the values of export and of import over- and under-misinvoicing separately, without resorting to assumptions about trade statistics reliability. Application of the methodology is illustrated using six-digit product-level UN Comtrade data for 2013–16. The results indicate that misinvoicing is not confined to a few products or countries but is a widespread phenomenon that deserves future research.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Transportation, Illicit Financial Flows, and Misinvoicing
Political Geography:
Global Focus