Publication Year: 3 selected / Topic: Climate Change

1. Environmental Protection and Climate Change Budgets of Metropolitan Municipalities

Author:: Nurhan Yentürk, Berkay Hacımustafa, Yakup Kadri Karabacak, Ezgi Ediboğlu Sakowsky, and Işık Baştuğ
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This study firstly aims to classify the environmental protection and climate change (EPCC) goals stated in the 2022 performance programs of the 14 metropolitan municipalities (MM) with the highest expenditures in Turkey and their affiliated institutions (AF) (water and sewerage departments and transportation administrations) according to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other environmental goals and to examine the budget allocated to these targets. The study, also, evaluates the pros and cons of the budgets allocated by the 14 metropolitan municipalities to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other goals and develops concrete policy recommendations for areas in which budgets should be increased/decreased.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Crisis Management, Sustainability, Public Spending, and Municipalities
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

2. Small-scale LNG in the Euro-Mediterranean: A Contribution to the Decarbonisation of the Maritime Sector

Author:: Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: While governments have reaffirmed their commitment towards energy transition in light of the current energy crisis, the urgency to act implies to use all possible solutions to reduce CO2 emissions during the transitional period. Natural gas can play a role in the decarbonisation of certain sectors, such as the transport sector. In this sense, the small-scale LNG industry could contribute to the decarbonisation of the Mediterranean region. Regulatory and political incentives as well as socioeconomic and environmental benefits could represent critical drivers for the growing role of the small-scale liquefied natural gas (SSLNG), while it will need to overcome several challenges (e.g. political pressure, economic and infrastructure constraints).
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Resources, European Union, Gas, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

3. India's G20 Presidency: Opportunity to Resume Engagement in the Arctic

Author:: Anurag Bisen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The Arctic lies at the intersection of several issues with global consequences such as climate change, increased accessibility to and availability of resources, and global strategic contestation that have made the region increasingly relevant to the world. Temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at four times the global annual average, driving many of the changes under way there, most prominently sea-level rise and the thawing of permafrost, which impact both local ecosystems and the global climate system. International scientific cooperation and data monitoring and sharing are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change, counteracting its negative effects, and enhancing living conditions and economic activity. Apart from a few limited pockets of cooperation that still exist, cooperation between Russia and the West with regard to the Arctic has largely been put on hold since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. The current absence of research and data sharing among scientists is threatening to jeopardise scientists’ understanding of the warming trends in the Arctic, exacerbating the environmental emergency the region in particular is facing. One of the few channels that still exists for constructive dialogue on a range of Arctic-related issues is the GCSP’s “‘High North Talks”’, through which discreet exchanges on various important issues continue. Among other things, the G20 agenda includes climate change, sustainable development and the environment, all of which are under threat due to the cessation of Artic-related scientific engagement. The G20 also represents a rare platform where engagement between Russia and the West has not yet ceased. The suspension of dialogue and scientific exchange vis-à-vis the Arctic is driven by a deep distrust that needs to be overcome by an interlocutor that is acceptable to all stakeholders. India's theme for its G20 presidency resonates strongly with the Arctic and its impact on the world. The resumption of Arctic-related scientific exchange is an easy deliverable with global benefits that India, which has the necessary legitimacy, credibility and relevance, should use its G20 presidency to strive for.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, G20, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: India, Asia, and Arctic

4. Climate Change in Japan’s New Defence and Security Strategies

Author:: Alistair D B Cook
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Japan has taken concrete steps to integrate climate change into its defence and security strategy going forward, and to provide the necessary budget for implementing the relevant measures needed in mitigating the impacts of this threat. This may signal a more prominent leadership role for Japan on climate security in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, and Environment
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

5. Japan’s Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth Strategy

Author:: Gyu-Pan Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Japan is mobilizing all its policy capabilities for energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy and hydrogen energy from the perspective of realizing carbon neutrality by 2050. Among them, the overseas development and return of hydrogen energy to Japan and the domestic green hydrogen development are making great progress since the announcement of the basic hydrogen strategy in December 2017. Japan promotes the green growth strategy (December 2020) as a national strategy to achieve the 2030 GHG reduction target of 46% (compared to 2013) (NDC) and to realize ‘carbon neutrality by 2050’. Japan's green growth strategy sets 14 areas as key development industries, including offshore wind power, hydrogen, nuclear power, automobiles and batteries, semiconductors, and information & technology. It also presents action plans in the key 14 areas such as R&D, demonstration projects, introduction expansion, and self-reliance/commercialization according to the growth stage of each area. In this WEB, we would like to explore which part of Japan's energy transition policy and green growth strategy the Korean government will refer to in order to achieve the task of realizing carbon neutrality by 2050, and cooperate with Japanese government.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economic Growth, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, Hydrogen, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

6. ASEAN's medium- to long-term trade strategies and the direction of RoK-ASEAN cooperation

Author:: Sungil Kwak, Seungjin Cho, Jaewan Cheong, Jaeho Lee, Mingeum Shin, Nayoun Park, and So Eun Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In recent years, the U.S.-China hegemony competition has intensified, dividing the world into two blocs. ASEAN has long culti-vated its position on the international stage by maintaining a certain distance between the United States and China. In that sense, ASEAN is the best partner for Korea to ef-fectively respond to the divided world. Therefore, this study seeks the directions of cooperation with ASEAN in supply chain, digital trade, climate change response, and health and development cooperation in line with changes in the international order.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Trade, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

7. Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security Threats in Africa and the Middle East

Author:: Munsu Kang
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The food security crisis in the Middle East has been exacerbated by several events, including COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the greater crisis is the decline in agricultural productivity caused by climate change and the rise of protectionist trade policies. This study examined the impact of drought on regional grain prices, specifically drought, which has the greatest impact on the Middle East region of Africa among weather changes. It was predicted by the IPCC (2019) that weather changes would affect agricultural production systems and that these changes would affect international grain markets and government trade policies. This study found that prices in the African Middle East maize and rice market increased as the drought intensified and the period lengthened, as predicted. Sorghum and millet, however, are relatively inelastic to climate change, so it can be assumed that they will receive attention as climate change intensifies. This study proposes areas for cooperation such as agricultural production, supporting the vulnerable, and crop reserve with the Middle East and Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Food Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

8. Analysis of India's New and Renewable Energy Market and Policies and Implications for Korea-India Cooperation

Author:: Hyoungmin Han
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The importance of new and renewable en-ergy has been drawing attention since the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted in 2015. In response to the Paris Climate Agreement, the Korean government declared carbon neutrality by 2050 and announced policy plans to create a low-carbon ecosystem in 2020. However, the domestic new and re-newable energy market is limited, making it difficult to mass-produce power generation devices. In addition, the international community's transition to a low-carbon ecosys-tem is rapidly taking place. To achieve 2050 carbon neutrality, it is necessary to secure Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) through various overseas cooperation pro-jects. Thus, it is believed that energy cooperation with developing countries is needed to expand domestic markets and to achieve overseas NDC reduction targets. Considering India's recent market expansion and active policy in the area of renewable energy, India can be a good partner for Korea in the renewable sector. To have a clear understanding of India’s renewable energy market, we conduct the analysis on India’s renewable energy market and policy, which we will explore in this article.
Topic:: Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Renewable Energy, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

9. China/United States: Europe off Balance

Author:: Thomas Gomart and Marc Hecker
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: As French President Emmanuel Macron (accompanied by Ursula von der Leyen) is on a state visit to China, some twenty Ifri researchers decipher the stakes of the U.S./China/Europe strategic triangle. This 16-text study follows Olaf Scholz’s visit to Beijing (November 2022) and precedes that of Emmanuel Macron (April 2023). It comes especially one year after the beginning of a geopolitical and geoeconomic shock of a rare magnitude: the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The War in Ukraine or the Return of Bloc Geopolitics? The war in Ukraine has broken ties between the European Union (EU) and Russia for the foreseeable future, particularly in the field of energy, though not without consequences in the Middle East, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, this war has become the main show of active indirect confrontation between the United States—which has provided military support to Ukrainians, with help from its European allies—and China, which has supported Russia politically and economically. In February 2022, Moscow and Beijing declared their “no limits friendship”; in March 2023, Xi Jinping offered his personal support to Vladimir Putin after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest. In its position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, presented in February 2023, China stated: “All parties should oppose the pursuit of one’s own security at the cost of others’ security, prevent bloc confrontation, and work together for peace and stability on the Eurasian Continent”. China is no more of a mediator than the United States: it would be unrealistic to believe so. We appear to be witnessing a return of bloc geopolitics, albeit in a starkly different context than that of the Cold War (1947-1991). Globalization has produced strong economic and technological interdependencies that make any prospect of decoupling very costly, if not impossible. Economic partners are no longer necessarily military allies, and vice versa. In other words, a gap is opening up between geopolitical perceptions and geoeconomic realities. The term “decoupling” is popular in the United States, though much less so elsewhere. The rejection of bloc geopolitics is particularly acute outside of the West, where a “pragmatic” approach to foreign policy is often promoted. The Saudi foreign minister summed this up during the World Policy Conference in December 2022: “Polarization is the last thing we need right now. […] We need to build bridges, strengthen connections, and find areas of cooperation”. A few months later, China pulled off an extraordinary diplomatic coup by brokering a deal to restore relations between Riyadh and Tehran. For the EU, the situation is particularly delicate: Europe is in the Western camp, but a severing of ties with Beijing would cause a crushing economic blow. In 2022, China accounted for more than 20% of the EU’s imports, while the United States accounted for around 12%. By 2030, the EU’s GDP is expected to rise to $20.5 trillion, compared to $30.5 trillion for the United States and $33.7 trillion for China. In January 2023, the President of the European Commission declared at Davos: “We still need to work and trade with China, especially when it comes to this transition. So, we need to refocus our approach on de-risking, rather than decoupling”. For its part, Beijing has encouraged European aspirations of “strategic autonomy”, understood in China as a form of detachment from the United States. At the same time, the EU is constantly strengthening its military, technological, financial and energy ties with the U.S. This collective study notes a hypothetical search for balance on the part of the Europeans, faced with a war on their territory (the Western peninsula of the heartland), who cannot escape Sino-American mechanisms, and who do not form a monolithic whole. It also analyzes the strategy of several important actors outside our continent, and shows that, from Ukraine to Taiwan, via Africa and the Middle East, Europeans have little room for maneuver. This is why the study proposes recommendations to try, at a crucial moment, to reinforce their positioning.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, European Union, and Industry
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

10. Amazonia on the Brink

Author:: Carlos Andrés Baquero Díaz
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Our Summer 2023 issue of the NACLA Report brings movement voices together with research and analysis to lay out what’s at stake in the Amazon and how to avert a deeper crisis.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Human Rights, and Indigenous
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

11. Carbon border adjustments, climate clubs, and subsidy races when climate policies vary

Author:: Kimberly Clausing and Catherine Wolfram
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Jurisdictions adopt heterogeneous climate policies that vary in terms of both ambition and policy approach, with some jurisdictions pricing carbon and others subsidizing clean production. We distinguish two types of policy spillovers associated with diverse policy approaches to climate change. First, when countries have different levels of climate ambition, free riders will benefit at the expense of more committed countries. Second, when countries pursue different approaches, carbon-intensive producers within cost-imposing jurisdictions will be at a relative competitive disadvantage compared with producers in subsidizing jurisdictions. Carbon border adjustments and climate clubs are attempts to respond to these policy spillovers, but when countries have divergent policy approaches, one policy alone will not be able to address both types of spillovers. We also consider the policy dynamics that result from carbon border adjustments and climate clubs; both have the potential to encourage upward harmonization of climate policy, but they come with risks. Further, the pressures of international competition in the presence of divergent climate policy approaches may result in subsidy races, which come with their own potential risks and benefits.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Carbon Emissions, and Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12. Non-economic loss and damage: closing the knowledge gap

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: Climate-related loss and damage is escalating, with many countries experiencing new forms of climate impact, of increasing intensity. The focus until now has been on calculating the economic repercussions of climate risk. Its wider impacts and resulting hidden costs of climate change — such as loss of cultural heritage — are less understood and harder to quantify. This knowledge gap on non-economic loss and damage, which is largely due to limited coordination around research and sparse evidence originating from the global South, urgently needs addressing. This briefing proposes a comprehensive approach for building the evidence base on non-economic loss and damage, particularly the creation of a Loss and Damage Research Observatory. This online platform will lay the foundations for a collaborative South–South–North community of practitioners, ultimately leading to informed policy on this critical area of climate action.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Displacement, Conservation, Indigenous, Resilience, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. Scaling up locally led adaptation in Bangladesh: three action areas

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: Although highly climate vulnerable, Bangladesh in South Asia is known as a pioneer of climate change adaptation. Recent national policies have recognised the vital importance of community-based and locally led adaptation (LLA). Where LLA interventions have been used by international and national nongovernmental organisations (NGOs), they have proven to be both effective and widely accepted by local communities. Yet major gaps remain in implementing LLA nationally due to legislative, administrative and conceptual limitations. Meeting Bangladesh’s ambitious national targets will require better coordination within government and with NGOs, so that each can benefit from the other. Building on recent examples, this briefing showcases existing interventions that are replicable and scalable and presents three key action areas requiring further government support. The lessons are also relevant to LLA practitioners in Bangladesh and other Least Developed Countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Local, Community, Adaptation, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

14. Armed group opportunism in the face of recent crises: COVID-19 and climate change

Author:: Siobhan O'Neil
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Terrorist and other types of armed groups often exploit natural and human-made disasters and emergencies to advance their causes. This paper studies how some armed groups have responded to two recent global emergencies—climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the messaging and actions of the Boko Haram in Nigeria and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident groups in Colombia in response to COVID and climatic shifts. The paper uses assessment methodology to look into unique survey evidence from each country in order to determine the public impact of armed group decision-making and responses to these emergencies. It also considers the potential policy implications of the findings presented herein.
Topic:: Climate Change, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, COVID-19, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15. Humanitarian aid: Defining new areas of US-LAC collaboration

Author:: Pepe Zhang and Isabel Bernhard
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The US humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) system—well practiced and extensively developed—could further serve US and partners’ needs in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and beyond through targeted improvements. Based on our experience as HADR practitioners with operational and academic expertise, we share insights from many years of working with partners in the Americas. The task is urgent: fragile governments and organizations further impacted by COVID-19 and climate change have exposed HADR deficiencies that need to be rapidly strengthened. Redoubling the US’s HADR commitment to allies and partners can also have strategic benefits during a period of renewed competition with the People’s Republic of China. We believe that the United States can strengthen its HADR work globally, and particularly with LAC countries, through partnership and relationship building as well as education and exercises. By deepening its strengths and address- ing room for improvement, the United States can remain the partner of choice for LAC countries and conserve its positional advantage over China and other strategic competitors. How can LAC and partner nations (such as the United States), nongovernmental organizations, and regional and other global organizations strengthen their abilities to respond to natural disasters? What can the United States do to improve its disaster preparedness and response in LAC? And what can Washington learn from Beijing’s approach to disaster assistance in LAC? In crafting this report to address these questions, we drew from a roundtable discussion, verbal and written consultations with subject matter experts, and written material. A full description of the methodology is provided in the appendix. The findings of the report include eight recommendations grouped under two mutually complementary areas: (1) partnership and relationship building, and (2) education and exercises. Not only are these recommendations timely and relevant for HADR practitioners, but taking these steps would strengthen Western hemispheric security by investing in the region’s infrastructure and human capital. As the United States and its LAC partners consider future room for cooperation and collaboration, HADR work will form an indispensable centerpiece of their strategies.
Topic:: NATO, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, Politics, Partnerships, Resilience, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

16. Climate Change Mitigation for Late Industrialisers: The Role of Technology Intensity in Manufacturing

Author:: Elvis Korku Avenyo and Fiona Tregenna
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Many developing countries now have a renewed focus on industrialisation and industrial policy. This is based on the recognition that industrialisation is a key driver of long-term economic progress and is the central route to improve the well-being of citizens in developing countries (Chenery, 1955; Tregenna, 2016; United Nations Industrial Development Organization [UNIDO], 2016). At the same time, the climate crisis poses an existential threat to the global economy and to humanity and has emerged as a challenge to the industrial development prospects and pathways of developing countries. This is because industrialisation is an important contributor to global warming, specifically to anthropogenic emissions of cardon dioxide (CO2.) (Adom et al., 2012; Han & Chatterjee, 1997). Late industrialisers thus face a dual challenge: industrialising while mitigating climate change (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017). Hence, there is now a degree of tension as to how late industrialisers can achieve long-term economic development under paths involving heavy or intensive industrialisation, while mitigating emissions and environmental damage more broadly. An emerging discourse recognises the critical need for developing countries to push towards industrial development that, while generating growth in productivity and jobs, is also environmentally sustainable. This is especially important, as poorer countries are particularly vulnerable to the immediate effects of the climate crisis (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017; Padilla, 2017). Thus, transforming towards sustainable production systems and green industrial policies offers developing countries opportunities to industrialise in an environmentally sustainable way while contributing to job creation and economic prosperity (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017; Padilla, 2017; Rodrik, 2014). However, the high ‘green premia’ and new access barriers to the ‘green’ energy technologies from advanced economies directly threaten this potential sustainable industrial development pathway in developing countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Industrialization, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

17. U.S. Re-Focuses Arctic Policy-The Consequences for Its Allies

Author:: Paweł Markiewicz
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Biden administration is increasing the U.S. capabilities in countering the effects of climate change in the Arctic, an aim overlapping the rivalry with Russia and China in this region. The U.S. announced increasing investments in infrastructure projects and defence, for example, modernising the Coast Guard’s Arctic fleet. The planned measures provide an opportunity for closer American cooperation with their allies and may mark the beginning of a regional division of labour in the area of shared defence.
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, Investment, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America

18. With Charisma, Stick, and Carrot: Reviewing the Effectiveness of EU Climate Diplomacy

Author:: Zuzanna Nowak and Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was a major challenge for EU climate diplomacy, which, despite the unfavourable external circumstances (e.g., the war in Ukraine and economic turbulence), contributed to the conference’s positive outcome. The EU, as a global leader in the fight against climate change, seeks to increase its influence with external partners. Many of them would not have joined the climate action without its support. In addition to participation in policy dialogue, among the EU’s main tools of influence are various types of incentives and forms of support, as well as leverage measures such as political conditionality. However, the effectiveness of these tools is still being refined.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, European Union, and Influence
Political Geography:: Europe

19. Climate Protection Litigation on the Rise

Author:: Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In the last several years, national courts and international institutions have increasingly begun to treat conservative or climate-adverse actions by states as violations of their obligations under international law and human rights. This has been followed by some countries more affected by climate change and engaged in international bodies to put more pressure on Global North states to protect the climate. The sympathetic attitude of international courts towards such complaints may, in the long term, force the need for increased climate ambition or even compensation payments by, among others, Poland.
Topic:: Climate Change, Human Rights, International Law, Courts, and Litigation
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Global Focus

20. Financing Loss and Damage at Scale: Toward a Mosaic Approach

Author:: Michael Franczak
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The historic decision on loss and damage (L&D) at the 2022 UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) calls for a new fund and funding arrangements focused on addressing L&D. It also tasks a Transitional Committee to prepare recommendations on the new fund and funding arrangements for adoption at the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai. This decision reflects a recognition that existing funding arrangements are grossly inadequate to address the escalating scale of L&D. Addressing L&D will require both enhancing these existing arrangements and creating a new fund and funding arrangements, forming a mosaic of solutions across countries, institutions, and markets. This paper aims to aid the Transitional Committee and other stakeholders by providing an initial sketch of that mosaic. First, it examines existing arrangements, modalities, and sources of funding for addressing L&D from UN humanitarian agencies, multilateral development banks and international financial institutions, and insurance and bond markets. Second, it proposes reforms to existing arrangements that would address key finance gaps and bottlenecks. Third, it identifies elements of a new L&D fund that would complement existing arrangements and make use of innovative finance (including levies and bond issuances) to operate at scale. With roughly six months left until COP28, the Transitional Committee will need to work efficiently to achieve its mandate, which includes determining the fund’s institutional arrangements, modalities, structure, governance, sources of funding, and coordination and complementarity with existing funding arrangements. To this end, the paper recommends that it should: Begin securing financing before COP28, particularly innovative financing, which takes longer to secure than traditional donor contributions; Consult with the private sector to determine its role, including in the use of insurance mechanisms and risk pools, frontloading, and connections between L&D and jobs; Determine the form and role of triggers, including for slow-onset events; Consider how to address noneconomic losses, including displacement and forced migration; and Identify the actions, mechanisms, and institutions required to operationalize the fund, including an internal or external coordination mechanism.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, United Nations, and Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

21. Enhancing Resilience in a Chaotic World: The Role of Infrastructure

Author:: Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Global infrastructure is at a crossroads. Sustainability and climate-resilience imperatives, new geopolitical headwinds, technology and connectivity issues, as well as the ongoing reconfiguration of global value chains, all call for a rethink in how infrastructure is designed, built and maintained. Leading world economic powers are envisaging new infrastructure plans that could fit in new trade and industrial strategies, with the ultimate goal to increase sustainability, economic competitiveness and resilience. Meanwhile, the use of digital technologies entails new risks for the security of critical infrastructure. How are global value chains changing, and how does this affect infrastructure? How could more resilient infrastructure transform economies? How to enhance the quality and sustainability of new and existing infrastructure? And how to safeguard security in critical infrastructure?
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, Economy, Sustainability, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. Section 232 reloaded: the false promise of the transatlantic ‘climate club’ for steel and aluminium

Author:: David Kleimann
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In using the removal of Section 232 ‘national security’ tariffs on steel and aluminium imports as a bargaining chip, the United States demands that the European Union engage in negotiations on “global steel and aluminium arrangements to restore market-oriented conditions and address carbon intensity”. The US demand has reportedly been inspired by a blueprint that would establish an international institutional arrangement – labelled a ‘climate club’ – which would externalise market-access restrictions afforded by US Section 232 tariffs to the customs borders of club members. While the declared objective is to incentivise non-members to adopt low-carbon steel (and aluminium) production methods the US blueprint suffers from various design flaws including inefficient incentives, WTO inconsistency and incompatibility with the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The effectiveness of the proposed US scheme is severely compromised by the plethora of policy objectives it pursues, which go far beyond the goal of incentivising industrial decarbonisation in third countries, including secondary (ie protectionism) and tertiary (ie global power competition with China) objectives. The initial negotiation proposal submitted by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to European Commission trade negotiators incorporates many if not all the problematic elements of this blueprint, setting the US on a collision course with the negotiation proposal put forward by the European Commission. This paper concludes that the adoption of the scheme proposed by USTR would result in a step backwards for international climate and trade cooperation, whereas not adopting the EU proposal would make for a missed opportunity. Given the sharply diverging negotiation positions and associated respective domestic constraints on both sides, however, policymakers should start to engage stakeholders now to manage expectations towards a low-ambition negotiation result, if any.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Economy, Trade Policy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

23. Rebooting the European Union’s Net Zero Industry Act

Author:: Simone Tagliapietra, Reinhilde Veugelers, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In March 2023, the European Commission published a legislative proposal for an EU response to the US Inflation Reduction Act: the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA). It is an unconvincing policy proposal, both for what is in it and for what is not in it. The proposal has five problematic aspects. First, it takes a top-down approach, in which specific technologies are selected for preferential treatment. Preferable would be a technology-neutral approach open to all current and future technologies that help tackle the net-zero challenge. Second, its blanket 40 percent self-sufficiency benchmark for EU domestic cleantech manufacturing by 2030 sends a protectionist signal, is poorly defined and does not reflect the differences in EU capacity in the cleantech sector. Third, it relies on the acceleration of permitting procedures as the main policy instrument, although this is not the main obstacle to cleantech investment in the EU. Fourth, it proposes more strategic use of public procurement. While this is an objective to be supported, the specific proposals are likely to be ineffective because of the way they are designed. Fifth and not least, the NZIA would lack a governance structure that would ensure effective implementation. In addition, the NZIA does not tackle three critical issues. It does not address investment obstacles related to failures of the single market. It does not tackle the coordination problem at the core of developing an EU green industrial policy. Finally, it does not develop an EU-level funding strategy, but rather relies on state aid, with the related risk of fragmentation. The European Parliament and EU countries in the Council of the EU should reboot the proposal and refocus its objectives, sharpening its limited instruments, improving its governance, and adding financial incentives to ensure implementation. In parallel, the EU should develop a broader green industrial policy strategy that leverages the single market in a credible manner, building a solid new governance framework and a new EU-level funding approach.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Trade Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

24. The potential of sovereign sustainability-linked bonds in the drive for net-zero

Author:: Alexander Lehmann and Catarina Martins
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: European Union governments have for some years issued green bonds that raise funds for climate-related spending. These bonds have been received well in capital markets but because they promise a certain use of proceeds, they complicate budget management and may not match investors’ claims of having an impact on national climate policies. Public commitments made by major investors and asset owners suggest that limiting climate transition risks and the assessment of the alignment of sovereigns with net-zero targets will now become key determinants of portfolio allocation. Yield differentials in bond markets are already beginning to reflect transition risks that arise from the inadequate pursuit by issuers of climate targets. Unlike standard green bonds, sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) create a link between performance (outcome) indicators and the financial terms of the bonds. SLBs have grown rapidly in importance in private markets and are now being assessed by sovereign issuers. We show that sovereign SLBs could help incentivise climate policies in EU countries, and accelerate emission reductions. They would be an effective tool for signalling commitment. A common EU framework for issuance by EU countries would enhance capital market integration and the transparency of national policies, and would limit climate transition risks in EU capital markets more broadly.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Finance, Carbon Emissions, and Sovereign Bonds
Political Geography:: Europe

25. Climate versus trade? Reconciling international subsidy rules with industrial decarbonisation

Author:: David Kleimann
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The vast environmental subsidies that may be required for the transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are starting to generate international trade and political frictions between the world’s largest economies. This puts (supra-)national industrial decarbonisation efforts on a collision course with international subsidies rules and national countervailing duty (ie anti-foreign subsidy) laws and regulations. International cooperation will be essential to defuse such tensions before they escalate and impede effective climate policy rollouts, and before they lead to economic countermeasures that create new barriers to trade in environmental goods. This requires agreement on permissible environmental subsidy practices that minimise distortions. Meanwhile, it will be crucial to provide financial transfers to assist poorer economies with industrial decarbonisation at the same time as those poorer economies are suffering from the cross-border negative economic impacts of otherwise net-global-welfare enhancing environmental subsidies paid out by wealthy countries. Various forums can host the technical and political negotiations necessary to set the parameters of net global-welfare enhancing subsidies. These include the G7, the G20, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the World Trade Organisation’s Trade and Environment Committee and WTO Trade and Environmental Sustainability Structured Discussions, and the Coalition of Trade Ministers on Climate.
Topic:: Climate Change, Political Economy, Trade, Carbon Emissions, Subsidies, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

26. Southeast Asia Aid Map - Key Findings Report

Author:: Alexandre Dayant, Grace Stanhope, and Roland Rajah
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Official development finance plays an important role in financing Southeast Asia’s development, equivalent to around 10% of total government development spending in the region. China is Southeast Asia’s single largest development partner and leads infrastructure financing. Yet, implementation problems have seen the scale of China’s financing decline in recent years. Traditional development partners collectively still dominate development financing in Southeast Asia at 80% of the total. The multilateral development banks lead the way, followed by Japan, Europe, and South Korea. The United States and Australia are mid-sized players. India and the Middle East have become notable sources of non-traditional development finance, with the Islamic Development Bank playing an important role. Climate development finance is increasing, but Southeast Asia will need more support if it is to transition towards resilient, low-carbon development. Intraregional development cooperation is growing, but only makes up a small part of development finance in Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

27. Compliance Assessment of the FY 2023/24 Budget to Climate Change Interventions in the Third National Development Plan (NDPIII)

Author:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) affirms that climate change is occurring in the world today. Climate change is a global development challenge with adverse effects manifested in different ways at national and local levels especially in the vulnerable least prepared countries like Uganda. It is associated with negative severe effects on human well-being and ecosystems which equally hinders the achievement of sustainable development and social equity goals hence becoming one of the drivers of exclusion. This makes it an urgent problem that requires global, regional and national efforts towards effective mitigation and adaptation responses. Swift effective response to climate change could significantly contribute to the attainment of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while delayed action is predicted to have severe and irreversible consequences for natural and human systems. Uganda’s frameworks to sustainable development (Uganda’s Vision 2040, the NDP III, sectoral policies and plans) highlight climate change as an outstanding development challenge. This implies that the attainment of the country’s long-term development goals and the building of resilient communities that will mitigate and adapt to climate change largely depends on the significant allocation of financial resources to climate change interventions specified in the development frameworks. The NDPIII 2020/21-2024/25) not only integrates climate change across all its twenty (20) programmes but also provides for their strategic interventions and targets. This integration trickles down to the NDPIII Results Framework and Programme Implementation Action Plans (PEAPs) and is also supposed to fully cascade down to the national budget. This report presents the compliance assessment of the FY 2023/24 budget to climate change interventions in the third National Development Plan (NDPIII) based on ten (10) priority programmes selected due to their real or potential contribution to climate change and their strategic importance to the development process. Overall, the analysis revealed that the FY2023/24 Annual Budget (AB) to climate change interventions in NDP III is unsatisfactory at 55.35 percent which is slightly lower than last year’s compliance level of 64.7 percent. However, there were variations in the compliance levels of the different programmes. The programmes on Sustainable Development of Petroleum Resources programme (83.3%), and Sustainable Minerals Development programme (80%) had a satisfactory level of compliance. On the other hand, the programmes of Human Capital Development (62.5%), Integrated transport infrastructure and services (61.1%), and Tourism development (66.7%) had a moderately satisfactory level of compliance. Lastly, the programmes of Sustainable Urbanisation and housing (56.7%), Natural Resources, Environment, Climate Change, Water and Land Management (56.3%), Agro-industrialization programme (28%), Digital transformation (40%), Private Sector Development (0%) had a far below an unsatisfactory level of compliance (below 60%).
Topic:: Climate Change, Budget, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

28. Why Democracies Implement Better Climate Actions: Case Study of India, the Philippines, and Japan

Author:: Niranjan Sahoo and Jisoo Park
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Asia is the most populous and one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world. Long coastline, vast low lying areas comprising many small island nations make it highly susceptible to climate change such as rising sea level and extreme weather events like floods, landslides. For many critics, democracies' response to climate change is much impeded due to their slow decision-making process and short-termism governed by electoral compulsions. Some analysts go as far as to claim that authoritarianism is needed to tackle the crisis more effectively. However, close examination of different governance structure's climate actions strongly supports that democracies are inherently better at handling climate crisis compared to authoritarian regimes. This article explores the multifaceted impact of climate change to democracy and delves into the case studies of India, the Philippines, and Japan to identify strengths as well as areas of improvement that democracies should consider to establish meaningful climate actions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Japan, India, Asia, and Philippines

29. General Equilibrium Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness and Distributional Impacts of China’s Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System

Author:: Xianling Long, Da Zhang, Lawrence Goulder, and Chenfei Qu
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: China introduced the world's largest emissions trading system in 2021 which is intended to help cost-effectively achieve its pledges of reaching a peak in CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. The system is a tradable performance standard (TPS) with a bottom-up intensity-based emissions cap, unlike a top-down absolute cap approach commonly used globally. General Equilibrium Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness and Distributional Impacts of China’s Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System developed and applied a multi-sector, multi-period general equilibrium model to assess the emissions, energy mix, and economic impacts of a series of options for the future development of this policy. These included cap-setting, benchmark design, auction design, and sectoral expansion, with valuable insights provided on the potential future evolution of this policy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

30. Getting Indonesia to Net Zero

Author:: Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: As one of the world’s fastest growing economies, Indonesia has committed to using its sustainable transition to drive green and inclusive growth. Recent steps taken by President Joko Widodo in the lead-up to Indonesia hosting the G20 summit in November 2022 underscore the country’s ambition to mitigate its emissions – including releasing a plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2060 or sooner, endorsing the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement at COP26, and enhancing Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contribution ahead of COP27. The Getting Indonesia to Net Zero report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero explores how Indonesia can further accelerate its transition to a resilient, net zero emissions economy while benefitting its people and its place in the world. The report is based on new modeling commissioned from Cambridge Econometrics that shows the opportunities and trade-offs associated with different pathways for Indonesia to meet its current and more ambitious emissions reduction targets. As the report’s analysis illustrates, implementing Indonesia’s current net zero strategy could boost Indonesia’s mid-term GDP by as much as 5% by 2032, create up to two million new jobs by 2039, and ultimately improve Indonesia’s trade balance by $48 billion. Moreover, by aiming for net zero emissions by 2050 instead of 2060 while prioritizing low-cost renewable energy sources like solar and wind, Indonesia could reduce its net zero investment needs by $3.8 trillion and peak its carbon emissions as early as 2027. In this latter scenario, the adverse impact of the net zero transition on household spending could also be cut by half. The report also outlines a roadmap for how Indonesia could realize these and other benefits by prioritizing climate policies that concurrently address development challenges, reforming the energy market structure to favor solar and wind, and leveraging green industries to advance a just transition.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

31. The Transition From an Intensity to an Absolute Emissions Cap in China’s National Emissions Trading System

Author:: Duan Maosheng
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: The unique characteristics of China's economic development and electricity marketization have resulted in the implementation of a bottom-up intensity-based emissions cap in China’s national emissions trading system (ETS) in its early stages. However, the efficacy of the bottom-up cap-setting approach remains controversial, particularly with regard to achieving emission reduction goals and cost-effectiveness. In response to China's "dual carbon" targets and updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), China’s national ETS shall gradually shift towards a real cap-and-trade system, with a transition period when a hybrid system, which has an absolute control cap beside the intensity cap, is implemented. The Transition from an Intensity to an Absolute Emissions Cap in China’s National Emissions Trading System examines the cap-setting approaches used in ETSs in China, the underlying reasons for choosing intensity caps in China, and major issues related to the transition from an intensity cap to an absolute cap in China’s national ETS.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

32. Getting Asia to Net Zero

Author:: Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: In March 2023, the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a key report stating that the Earth has already warmed by 1.1°C and that no additional fossil fuel infrastructure can be built and used while still holding warming to under 1.5°C. In response, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for countries to hit “fast-forward” on their net zero commitments, with developed economies to aim for net zero by 2040, and emerging economies to target 2050. The Getting Asia to Net Zero report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero presents another compelling reason for the Asia-Pacific region to align behind achieving net zero emissions by mid-century: taking more ambitious climate action and reducing emissions sooner could enhance the region’s economic and social development. The report draws on new modeling commissioned from Cambridge Econometrics that examines the costs, benefits, and trade-offs of the Asia-Pacific’s options to implement its current and more ambitious mitigation targets, as well as how variations in the power sector mix could enhance development while meeting climate goals. According to the analysis, hitting net zero emissions by 2050 could increase the Asia-Pacific's gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 6.3 percent above projected levels and generate as many as 36.5 million additional jobs by the 2030s, as compared to the 5 percent GDP boost and 25.1 million additional jobs that current climate commitments could generate. A net zero 2050 pathway could also lead to energy cost savings of $270 billion for local households and improve the region's trade balance by as much as $827 billion, largely due to a reduction in fossil fuel dependence. Prioritizing low-cost renewable energy sources like solar and wind power could help the Asia-Pacific avoid $2.2 trillion in investment requirements. The report also recognizes potential challenges associated with the transition to net zero and proposes solutions, such as facilitating the flow of international finance to mitigate adverse impacts on household spending and developing comprehensive plans to help displaced fossil fuel workers take advantage of new employment opportunities. In 2023, Asia has another compelling opportunity to globally step up on climate. A confluence of major multilateral processes will take place in the Asian region, including the G7 in Japan, the G20 in India, and the 28th UN Climate Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates on behalf of the Asia-Pacific Group. Moreover, the first Global Stocktake at COP28 in December 2023 will assess the global state of progress and remaining gaps to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals. The commissioned modeling shows that aligning the Asia-Pacific’s climate ambition with a 1.5°C trajectory is not only possible — it could also be the more beneficial path forward for the region.
Topic:: Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: Asia

33. China, climate change and the energy transition

Author:: Professor Xu Yi-Chong
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report surveys China’s enormous energy transition to renewables. It begins by sketching the energy challenges China faces and its climate-change-related energy policies, in the context of the global geopolitics of the energy transformation. Next the report focuses on conventional energy sources (oil and natural gas), followed by electricity, and energy technologies. Although the report is intended primarily to survey developments to date, it concludes with some brief observations about the considerable energy challenges China faces in the years ahead.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: China and Asia

34. China, climate and conflict in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Anastasia Kapetas
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This paper surveys the current reporting and analysis on climate and security to explore the implications that climate change may have for China’s ability to prosecute its security goals in the region’s three major hotspots: the SCS, Taiwan and the India–China border conflict. Those three hotspots all involve longstanding border and territorial disputes between China and other nations and may draw in various levels of US involvement should China continue to escalate tensions.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

35. The Persistent Consequences of the Energy Transition in Appalachia’s Coal Country

Author:: Eleanor Krause
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The persistence and intensification of earnings, employment, and opportunity gaps across place has become an increasingly salient feature of the United States economy over the past several decades.1 This economic divergence has occurred alongside a remarkable transition away from coal-fired electricity that is expected to continue as lower-carbon energy sources become more economically viable. While essential to minimizing the damages of climate change, the shift poses significant challenges to the relatively rural and distressed communities traditionally reliant on this resource. Indeed, many historically coal-dependent communities in Central Appalachia have long been characterized by deep poverty, limited employment opportunities, and high rates of public assistance, and recurrent adverse shocks to coal employment over the past several decades have amplified many of these qualities, potentially elevating the risks associated with the energy and economic shifts ahead. How have Appalachia’s coal-dependent communities adjusted to historical and contemporary declines in demand for coal, and how do these shocks – and their consequences for the educational composition of affected communities – influence the capacity for future generations to adapt to new challenges? In this policy brief, I present estimates of how Appalachia’s coal country has adjusted to recent declines in coal mining employment (“coal shocks”), and I demonstrate how this adjustment process is, in part, dictated by the persistent consequences of historical employment shocks in Appalachia. The evidence suggests that recent coal shocks (i.e., declines in coal employment occurring between 2007 and 2017) have been relatively painful for affected communities, causing large reductions in local population sizes, declines in local employment counts, declines in earnings, and increases in the rate of government transfer receipt. All of these adjustment costs are more severe in counties with a history of “selective migration” induced by shifting employment opportunities in the 1980s. That is, the estimated effect of recent coal shocks on population sizes, employment, earnings, and transfer payments is significantly larger in counties that lost greater numbers of their college-educated adults in the 1980s thanks to historical employment shocks in proximate labor markets. The upshot is that coal-dependent communities may demonstrate little resilience to recent coal shocks in part because of the persistent consequences of historical shocks, which fundamentally altered the educational composition of affected communities. By dramatically reducing the number of college-educated individuals living in a community, adverse shocks have the capacity to put places on a pathway of decline that makes it more difficult to adapt to economic shifts in subsequent generations. These insights preview the potentially damaging implications of future contractions in the coal industry, revealing the need for greater empirical investigation of the types of policy efforts that might ameliorate the painful local adjustment costs associated with the energy transition going forward.
Topic:: Climate Change, Employment, Coal, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: North America, United States of America, and Appalachia

36. Updating Estimates of Methane Emissions: The Case of China

Author:: Zichong Chen and Daniel Jacob
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Harvard Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions released its first publication in May 2023: a research brief titled “Updating Estimates of Methane Emissions: The Case of China.” The Initiative is one of five interdisciplinary research clusters funded by the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University. The Harvard Project on Climate Agreements collaborates in the implementation of the Initiative. The brief summarizes research by Professor Daniel Jacob and postdoctoral fellow Zichong Chen, atmospheric scientists at Harvard University, with their colleagues. Jacob and Chen use high-resolution data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), onboard a satellite launched in 2017, to estimate national and sectoral methane emissions more accurately than has been possible in the past. They draw upon atmospheric transport models to invert the satellite observations of methane concentrations, using advanced statistical methods, and infer emissions quantities and locations from the observed atmospheric concentrations. This method has yielded generally higher estimates of emissions than in previous reports, including in the case of China. Future methane-initiative briefs will address similar research the authors and their colleagues are conducting in the United States, Latin America, North Africa, and other countries and regions. An accurate picture of aggregate and sector-level methane emissions is important to better target mitigation policies. It is hoped that the results of the research described here and in subsequent briefs will advance national efforts and international collaboration aimed at reducing methane emissions. The Harvard Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions seeks meaningful and sustained progress in global methane-emissions reductions through research and effective engagement with policymakers in government and key stakeholders in business, nongovernmental organizations, and international institutions. Reduced methane emissions can significantly reduce, in the near term, the magnitude of climate change and its associated impacts. The Initiative’s objectives span the full range of disciplines and topics associated with this challenge. Among its objectives are to build on scientific research on measurement and attribution of emissions; understand legal, regulatory, and political opportunities and constraints to methane-emissions reductions in the United States; design policies that might best contribute to methane emissions reduction; work effectively through existing international venues, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; and define roles that business and international and multilateral organizations can play in this effort.
Topic:: Climate Change, Methane, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

37. The Science of Rapid Climate Change in Alaska and the Arctic: Sea Ice, Land Ice, and Sea Level

Author:: John P. Holdren
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Earth’s surface north of the Arctic Circle, which includes nearly a third of Alaska, is warming 3-4 times faster than the global average.1 Alaska as a whole is warming twice as fast as the lower 48 states.2 As is true for most of the manifestations of anthropogenic climate change, moreover, the extremes of temperature are growing faster than the averages: the highest-ever temperature north of the Arctic Circle—100.4°F—was recorded in Verkhoyansk, Siberia, in June 2020;3 Anchorage reached an all-time high of 90°F on July 4, 2019;4 and Utqiavgik, Alaska, the northernmost U.S. city, reached an all-time winter high of 40°F in December 2022.5 The reasons warming is so fast in the Far North are quite well understood scientifically. The most important factor is the ice-snow-albedo feedback, in which warming reduces the area of land and water covered by ice and snow, which means less reflectivity and more absorption of incident solar energy at the surface, hence further warming.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Sea Ice
Political Geography:: North America, Alaska, Arctic, and United States of America

38. Opportunities for Multilateral Cooperation on Climate Change in the Arctic

Author:: Jennifer Spence
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Climate change is complex, multi-dimensional, and far-reaching. The impacts of climate change are not uniform, however, and few regions are currently facing the rapid and dramatic effects being experienced in the Arctic. Being a region on the frontlines of climate change with sparse populations and limited infrastructure emphasizes the importance of leveraging opportunities for collaboration and coordination. The functions of multilateral cooperation in the Arctic related to climate change are multifold, including to: Deepen and accelerate understanding, Share experiences and lessons learned, Mobilize limited resources, Coordinate responses, and Collaborate on solutions.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Arctic

39. Climate change adaptation relevance of Tanzania’s national budget

Author:: Noah Pauline, Peter Rogers, Edmund Mabhuye, Beatrice Sumari, Lucas Katera, Jamal Msami, Per Tidemand, and Esbern Friis-Hansen
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In Tanzania, climate change adaptation is financed by international development assistance and by nationally generated revenue. While international development assistance is registered by OECD and climate change adaptation relevance tagged by donors, the proportion of the nationally generated revenue that is climate change adaptation relevant is unknown. This DIIS Working Paper analyses the climate change adaptation relevance of the national budget (from 2014 to 2022), using the same methodology applied in a previous study (Yanda et al., 2013). The study further assesses the degree to which climate change adaptation financed is devolved to local government. The study finds that a disproportionately high proportion of climate adaptation finance is used at central government levels due to priorities being established at the ministry level. Moreover, the study finds that local governments lack discretion over climate change adaptation finance due to the country’s highly centralised policies, practices and procedures. Qualitative fieldwork indicates that nearly all climate change adaptation finance accessed by local governments comes with a central government tag (directive) on how to use it.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, Poverty, Budget, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

40. Inclusion and exclusion in Somali drought emergency assistance

Author:: Ahmed Musa
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: When drought or other emergencies strike in the Somali regions, the first responders are Somalis themselves, not the international humanitarian system. Based on family, kinship and more distant social ties, Somalis mobilise and deliver various forms of emergency assistance to the affected communities. Yet, mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion vary significantly, pending on the closeness of social ties, the power relations between local and international actors, and the number and forms of intermediaries. In this new DIIS Working Paper, Ahmed M. Musa, examines such local and transnational humanitarian practices and the mechanisms of inclusion and inclusion that they entail. Focusing on instances of drought in Somaliland, Musa argues that emergency assistance based on close social ties observes the overall humanitarian principle of impartiality. There are challenges, however, particularly when the social ties are more distant, as in the case of government-led or international responses. This may be mitigated, Musa shows, by the social contract of reciprocity between givers and recipients of assistance, going hand in hand with social sanctions where people abstain from helping those in need. Familiarity is thus central for impartial and inclusive access to emergency assistance, rather than an obstacle. The paper is an output from the Diaspora Humanitarianism in Complex Crises (D-Hum) research project in which Musa was a postdoc between 2020 and 2022. D-Hum analyses how Somali diaspora actors and their local counterparts mobilise, channel and deliver humanitarian assistance to Somalia and Somaliland during complex humanitarian crises. The project is funded by the Danish Consultative Research Committee for Development Research (FFU). Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LinkedInSend link to page with mailPrint page
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, Migration, Poverty, Natural Resources, Inequality, Conflict, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

41. Climate change actions in conflict affected contexts

Author:: Helene Maria Kyed and Justine Chambers
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Violent conflict and state oppression in Myanmar demonstrates the importance of placing conflict analysis and people-centred approaches at the centre of international programming on climate change and environmental protection. In 2021, the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that the impacts of the climate crisis will be particularly pronounced in poor and conflict-affected countries. Research also identifies climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ that, in combination with socio-political factors like poverty, state incapacity and inequality, can intensify violent conflict. However, gaps remain in how to address the increase in climate change vulnerabilities in contexts with violent conflict and state oppression. This is evident in Myanmar, where a historically repressive military regime is threatening to cause longer-term ‘climate collapse’. Since a military coup in February 2021, extractive activities and war economies are destroying the natural environment and placing communities at further risk of displacement, violent persecution and food shortages. These effects of conflict are reducing local people’s capacity to adapt to climate change and threatening civil society’s efforts to protect the environment. Under such conditions, climate change programming needs to place conflict analysis at its centre stage and substitute state-centric and purely technical approaches with people-centred ones, in alignment with the localisation of aid agenda.
Topic:: Climate Change, Democratization, Environment, Natural Resources, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Myanmar

42. Most green funds do not have a sustainability impact

Author:: Jan Fichtner, Robin Jaspert, and Johannes Petry
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: ESG funds are growing rapidly. However, their impact on climate change mitigation and sustainability remains unclear. Recent research on the transmission mechanisms from sustainable finance to the real economy has identified key shortcomings that need to be addressed in order to reduce greenwashing and make these funds truly green.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Capitalism, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. What needs to change for green funds to be truly green

Author:: Jan Fichtner, Robin Jaspert, and Johannes Petry
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Green investment funds are growing rapidly. However, their impact on climate change mitigation and sustainability remains unclear. Recent research has identified key shortcomings that need to be addressed in order to reduce greenwashing and make these funds truly green. Green finance is playing an ever more prominent role in recent years. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds, which constitute a key pillar of green finance, saw record inflows of hundreds of billions of US-dollars in recent years, primarily by retail investors. Essentially, these ‘green’ funds are integrating environmental, social and governance criteria, such as greenhouse gas emissions, labour rights and gender diversity into their investment strategy. They claim to invest less in the stocks of firms that are highly polluting or have bad governance practices, and instead buy the shares of corporations that appear to be more sustainable. In industry and policy debates, ESG funds are often cited as advancing the promotion of sustainability and helping to address climate change. However, the ESG concept, its underlying criteria, and its potential effects are highly controversial. Many critics see ESG primarily as ‘window dressing’, with no significant positive impact – either for the environment or for investors and employees.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Oil, Gas, Capitalism, Sustainability, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Climate resilience and Cook Islands' relationship of Free Association with Aotearoa / New Zealand

Author:: David J. Kilcullen
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: On 1 January 2020, the Cook Islands was removed from the OECD Development Assistance Committee’s List of Official Development Assistance (ODA) Recipients. Having been assessed as a “high-income status country”, this re-classification rendered the Cook Islands ineligible for OECD development assistance. It was unfortunate timing. The Covid-19 pandemic hit a few months later and caused a significant contraction in the tourism sector on which the Cook Islands is economically dependent. The result was, by the government’s own description, a “severe recession” with a total contraction of -21.6% of GDP in 2020/ 2021. Thus, only months after being recognized as having a sufficiently high income as to no longer warrant OECD development-assistance, the Cook Islands lost nearly a quarter of its GDP. This was especially significant for a country that is particularly susceptible to climate change and weather-related hazards. The Cook Islands is made up of 15 coral atolls and volcanic islands. Over 90% of the residents of the 12 inhabited islands live within one kilometer of a coastline. In addition, its already modest population of just under 15,000 people is rapidly decreasing (down from approximately 17,500 in 2016), undermining social and economic resilience to shocks. Despite notable economic growth in the years preceding Covid-19, greater infrastructure and other investment remains essential to brace the country for future climate-related changes. A question thus arises as to the benefits of Free Association in circumstances where the former colony faces crises.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, History, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Europe, Denmark, New Zealand, and Cook Islands

45. Climate change, mobility and human trafficking in Ethiopia

Author:: Ninna Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Throughout history, demographic, economic, political, religious, and environmental developments have resulted in Ethiopian mobility, mainly within the country or neighbouring region, but also further afield. Although Ethiopia’s current migration rate is only about half of the sub-Saharan average of 2%, the combined effects of poverty, population growth, conflict, and climate change have led to a recent growth in international migration. Women make up half of these flows. Proximity to the Middle East has facilitated women’s migration for domestic work while simultaneously raised concern over human trafficking violations. International Human Rights and anti-trafficking organisations predict that the negative effects of climate change will increase the vulnerability to trafficking in persons, forced labour, sexual exploitation, and debt bondage. This policy brief draws on research carried out under the auspices of the collaborative ‘Governing Climate Migration’ (GCM) research programme to further explore how climate change, migration and human trafficking may interlink. It questions routine applications of the human trafficking label to irregular Ethiopian migrant domestic workers and suggests replacing it with a migration-trafficking continuum approach that takes life before, during and after migration into account.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Borders, Risk, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

46. Why adaptation projects do not stop climate-related migration

Author:: Lily Salloum Lindegaard, Nauja Kleist, Francis Jarawura, and Joseph Teye
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Climate change constitutes a critical challenge for subsistence rain-fed agriculture in the Global South. Increasing temperatures, irregular rainfall, and dry spells have negative, sometimes devastating, consequences for rural communities. Harvest yields diminish or fail, the planting season becomes unpredictable, and the dry season may be prolonged. While subsistence farming has always been demanding in such areas, climate change amplifies these challenges. As a result, local communities draw on a range of alternative farming methods and livelihood strategies, ranging from employing different crops to seasonal or long-term migration. Migration as an adaptation strategy, however, is widely rejected by international donors, national governments and sometimes local authorities. Rather, these actors often aim to enhance and promote local agriculture or other locally based livelihoods through in-situ adaptation projects, or adapting in place. This can be through providing (or selling) inputs to increase yields, e.g. drought resistant seeds, fertilizers or pest control; promoting new farming techniques, e.g. climate smart or conservation agriculture; or improving access to key resources, for instance water access through irrigation. Affected communities are supposed to stay where they are – in other words, deal with the challenges on the ground.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Migration, Natural Resources, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Global South

47. How to encourage private sector climate initiatives in Kenya

Author:: Judith Mulwa and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Climate change is a particularly pertinent issue in Kenya because the country’s economy is highly dependent on its natural resource base (such as agriculture and fisheries), which are sensitive to temperature and rainfall variabilities. As a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Kenya must work to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This requires significant financial resources. Per the UNFCCC framework, some national climate actions are not expected to receive financing from international financial sources. Therefore, the country must look for innovative ways of domestically sourcing finances for low-carbon development and climate resilience programmes. Kenya has, in this regard, set up and implemented a national climate fund for financing adaptation and mitigation projects, ideally from various sources, including the private sector. This policy brief explores the legal, price-based, property-based, and information-based incentives for private sector investment and engagement in climate adaptation and mitigation in Kenya. The analysis is based on desk research and 51 stakeholder interviews from identified private sector institutions and industries in Kenya.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, Investment, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

48. Pressing Security Concerns in Southeast Asia: Next-Generation Perspectives

Author:: John Hemmings, Ariel Mota Alves, Attawat Joseph Ma Assavanadda, Fikry A. Rahman, Katrina Guanio, and Siu Tzyy Wei
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Southeast Asia is a pivotal sub-region of the Indo-Pacific. Spanning 1,700,000 square miles, its total population is 676 million – around 8.5% of the world’s population – and has a collective GDP of US$3.67 trillion (as of 2022). Over the years, it has been associated with both economic dynamism and significant security challenges. As authors in this volume note, the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, disagreements over water rights in the Mekong Delta, and the current conflict in Myanmar highlight fault lines not only between Southeast Asian states themselves, but also between great powers such as China and the United States. There are many more – the EU, India, Japan, Australia, and South Korea – that pay close attention to developments in the sub-region. Maintaining peace and stability in a region that plays host to one-third of global sea-borne trade, hosts major undersea internet cables, and is a major thoroughfare for energy supplies from the Middle East to the advanced manufacturing hubs in China, Japan, and South Korea is both challenging and complicated. The primary mechanism for engagement with the individual countries in Southeast Asia has been through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its attendant bodies, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the East Asia Summit (EAS), and the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM). Meanwhile, ASEAN member states have promoted the principle of “ASEAN centrality” as a means to prevent major power interference in the sub-region and to retain influence over security cooperation within Southeast Asia and beyond. As a result, the acknowledgement of ASEAN centrality has become a “boilerplate” for strategy and policy documents related to regional security. One example of this is the inclusion of the principle in the 2021 U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. However, the increasingly pressing nature of challenges confronting the broader region, their speed and intensity, are beginning to outpace the evolution of institutions and processes associated with ASEAN. The ASEAN Way – an emphasis on informal consultation, non-interference, and consensus as the basis of major decisions – has been integral to creating internal cohesion and harmony within ASEAN decision-making and is an enabler of socio-political integration. On the other hand, it has also stymied efforts to develop effective collective responses to conflicts and has made ASEAN hostage to great powers able to use their influence over members to break consensus. While defenders of ASEAN point to its successes and remain confident that it will adapt to regional issues over time, others are increasingly skeptical that ASEAN can retain its status as the gatekeeper of regional security agenda. It is in this context that Pacific Forum carried out this extended study with support from the Luce Foundation to investigate Southeast Asian perspectives on the “biggest threats or most pressing security issues, now and in the foreseeable future.” We asked a group of our Southeast Asian cohort of Young Leaders (ages 21 to 35), what problems were most pressing to them, and asked them how they thought their countries should address these issues, noting which third-parties would be most important for them to leverage in doing so. We believe this publication, which cuts across a broad range of security issues, is a fair representation of the eclecticism and diversity that characterize the region itself and hope that our readers will find them as useful as we have here at Pacific Forum. The collection starts with traditional security issues and then moves to more non-traditional security issues, though this does not reflect any internal emphasis or prioritization on the part of the editors. The first essay, by Siu Tzyy Wei, is entitled “Caught in the Middle: The Measured Voice of Brunei’s Foreign Policy Amidst the South China Sea Dispute.” Beginning with the South China Sea is appropriate for any collective study on the region, but Brunei’s position as a “silent claimant” presents a perspective not often heard. The author’s assertion that it is China and external powers – AUKUS and the Quad are mentioned – that are adding pressure to the South China Sea and adding a dangerous complexity, compelling Brunei’s “neutrality,” a striking claim given the threat to Bruneian sovereignty. The second essay moves to another flashpoint, the political crisis in Myanmar; a national issue that has reverberated around ASEAN as well as further abroad in Washington and Brussels. Appropriately titled “The Coming of the Raging Fire: The Revolution in Myanmar,” Thiha Wint Aung analyzes the lead-up to the political crisis and concludes by calling for the international community to explicitly support the people’s “armed resistance” against the military. The third essay presents a bold national case for a region-wide issue: dealing with rising Chinese influence. In “Malaysia’s China Policy Amid China’s Growing Security Concerns,” Fikry A. Rahman argues that Malaysian policy elites will have to prioritize strategic concerns over economic ties vis-a-vis China if it is to adequately defend Malaysian sovereignty. The next group of essays focuses on non-traditional security issues, beginning with climate change, one of the most pressing global issues. Southeast Asia is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, as noted in the fourth essay, “When it Rains, it Pours: Disaster Displacement and the Future of Human Security in the Philippines Amid Changing Climate.” Katrina Guanio calls for policymakers to be aware of gradual or even sudden human migrations due to inclement weather, such as typhoons, and the impact these have on national health, economic, and security dynamics. Taking an unusual and unique perspective, the fifth essay, “Climate Maladaptation: Migration, Food Insecurity, and the Politics of Climate Change in Timor-Leste” by Ariel Mota Alves, makes the provocative argument that international organizations can sometimes promote detrimental Western development narratives that undermine local solutions to local climate change effects. The sixth essay, “Human Trafficking in Vietnam: A Top-Tier Non-Traditional Security Threat in the 21st Century” by Thu Nguyen Hoang Anh, measures the impact of the scourge of human trafficking in Vietnam and offers practical policy solutions to mitigating its impact on victims. Finally, the seventh essay, by Attawat Assavanadda, looks at “Thailand’s Brain Drain Challenge: Trends and Implications,” noting the push-pull drivers of the phenomenon and its impact on Thailand’s overall development. As one can see from this summary, the range of topics chosen by our talented Young Leader cohort from Southeast Asia is as diverse, inspiring, and multidimensional as the region itself. Ranging from security issues that are well covered by regional and international media to those that take an eclectic look at local variations of international issues, we are pleased to showcase these essays. As ever, the mission of Pacific Forum only begins with the creation of such young leader cohorts, and empowering them to present their analyses and recommendations should only be a prelude to robust regional conversations and discussions. We have been since our creation – a forum for those discussions – and hope that our readers will take that engaging approach to these essays and their authors.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Migration, Brain Drain, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

49. Southeast Asia’s Clean Energy Transition: A Role for Nuclear Power?

Author:: David Santoro, Elrika Hamdi, Sabar Md. Hashim, Shwe Yee Oo, and Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: To bring clarity on these developments and their implications in Southeast Asia, the Pacific Forum commissioned several Southeast Asian scholars to write analytical papers on the energy transition that is underway in the region, which are compiled in this volume. Each chapter looks at the current and possible future energy landscape of a specific Southeast Asian country and focuses especially on the place and role of nuclear power in it. This “nuclear focus” is important because, for decades, most Southeast Asian countries have expressed on-and-off interest in nuclear power but never brought it online. Interest is now picking up again, especially for SMRs, so if this time one or several Southeast Asian countries successfully went nuclear, it would be a first. It is good timing, therefore, to devote attention to how Southeast Asian countries are thinking about nuclear power in today’s context, for multiple reasons, including those related to safety, security, and safeguards.
Topic:: Climate Change, Nuclear Power, Energy Transition, and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

50. Military capabilities affected by climate change: An analysis of China, Russia and the United States

Author:: Adaja Stoetman, Dick Zandee, Ties Dams, Niels Drost, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of the present and the future. Rising temperatures and sea levels, as well as extreme weather events are manifestations of climate change that also influence military capabilities. Increased attention for the climate change-security nexus is visible both at the national and the international level: nationally through the incorporation of climate change in security strategies and internationally through incorporation in important strategic documents such as the EU’s Strategic Compass and NATO’s Strategic Concept. Given its transnational nature, governments around the world have a shared responsibility to face climate change. A particular role is laid down for the global powers, China, Russia and the United States, given their position in the world. It is, however, questionable whether the global powers’ interests align. They differ in their approaches to address climate change, and even more so in their views on how it affects the armed forces. China and particularly Russia are more reluctant towards depicting climate change as a matter of international security. This is for example visible in international forums, such as the UN Security Council. In contrast, in the US, support for climate action is subject to political preferences, but climate related security risks are widely recognised within the defence establishment. This report reviews various aspects of the relationship between climate and security, with a particular focus on the military. It discusses the role of climate change in a country’s security and defence strategy and, vice versa, the changing tasks and deployment of the armed forces in response to climate change, the effects of climate change on military infrastructure, and measures to realise a greener defence sector.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, European Union, and Military
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

51. Getting global development back on track: Focus and start at home

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Since 2019, realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has gone from patchy to off-track as a result of Covid-19, global price shocks caused by the war in Ukraine and accelerating climate change. About 100 million people were thrown back into extreme poverty and hundreds of millions more face reduced health, livelihood and income prospects for the rest of their lives. The climate change agenda also took a backseat. Long-term global effects will be profound in terms of growing migration flows, further climate degradation and, likely, more conflict, authoritarianism and populism. Putting global development back on track requires focusing on fewer priorities rather than the entire SDG agenda, namely those with the highest negative impact on developing countries: conflict, climate change and inequality. Addressing these problems primarily requires middle- and high-income countries to reduce their contribution to climate deterioration and inequality at home, and to increase their support for conflict resolution efforts elsewhere at a faster rate. While it may seem counterintuitive, the greatest development contributions that developed countries can make lie at home.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

52. Into the Blue Pacific: Why the EU Should Help Island Nations Address Climate Change and Maritime Insecurity

Author:: Elisabeth Suh and Hanna Gers
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The ‘Blue Pacific’ is a vast region in the South Pacific, encompassing 30 million square kilometers, three million inhabitants and 14 nations. Its consists of thousands of islands threatened by climate change – a concern aggravated by geopolitical competition. The EU can help mitigate these challenges through capacity-building for climate adaptation and maritime security and regional consolidation. This overlaps with European strategic interests, including establishing itself as a trusted outside power.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and Pacific Islands

53. Climate and Environmental Security in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Author:: Kira Vinke, Loyle Campbell, Dana Schirwon, Katongo Seyuba, Florian Krampe, Hafsa Maalim, and Guélor Isulu Mbungwal
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Climate change is compounding the Democratic Republic of Congo’s tangle of problems – a long-running civil war, weak governance, and deeply entrenched poverty and inequality. The country’s future is of global significance: its vast Congo-basin rainforest is a crucial carbon sink and a haven of biodiversity. DRC’s hydropower potential and its deposits of copper and cobalt could enable the energy transition, but a green resource looms over development prospects. Germany will need flexible and well-aligned national strategies to effectively support peace, human progress, and environmental protection in the DRC while putting the focus on the needs of marginalized populations.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Poverty, Inequality, and Hydropower
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

54. Migration in the Context of Climate Foreign Policy

Author:: Kira Vinke, Hannes Einsporn, Dana Schirwon, and Mahalia Thomas
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Migration, displacement and resettlement in the context of climate change are not distant scenarios of the future, but are now materializing along increasingly severe extreme events and slow-onset degradation. In view of accelerating global warming and the danger of crossing tipping points in the Earth system, forward-looking climate foreign policy and development policy should increasingly focus on severe climate impacts.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Development, and Migration
Political Geography:: Germany and Global Focus

55. The Disruption of Arctic Exceptionalism: Managing Environmental Change in Light of Russian Aggression

Author:: Kai Kornhuber, Kira Vinke, Evan T. Bloom, Loyle Campbell, Volker Rachold, Sara Olsvig, and Dana Schirwon
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Arctic is directly affected by the interaction of two ongoing global crises: climate change and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. With its temperatures rising four times faster than the global average, the Arctic is facing dramatic environmental consequences. Meanwhile, retreating sea ice has led to increased economic interest in the Arctic and its growing geopolitical importance. Thus, understanding and managing the global and local implications of environmental change in this region requires urgent scientific and diplomatic collaboration.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Arctic, and Americas

56. Climate Change in the Federated States of Micronesia: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors

Author:: Zena Grecni, Chelsey Bryson, and Elaine Chugen
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Stronger typhoons, growing challenges for populations on low-lying atolls, ecosystem declines, and human health issues are among the major risks detailed in a new report on climate change in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Threatened resources include culturally significant coastal infrastructure and the tens of millions of dollars that fisheries inject into the FSM’s economy annually, according to the report by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a consortium of several government, NGO, and research entities. Climate Change in the Federated States of Micronesia: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors is a report developed by PIRCA. It is one in a series of reports aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) and the Hawaiian archipelago. Authors from the East-West Center, Arizona State University, and the University of Hawaiʻi—along with 30 technical contributors from local government, NGOs, and research—collaboratively developed the FSM PIRCA report. Climate change is expected to disrupt many aspects of life in the FSM. Specific groups—including children, older adults, women, and those living in remote communities—are likely to be disproportionately affected. This report provides guidance for decision-makers seeking to better understand the implications of climate variability and change for the FSM and its communities. It also identifies the additional information and research needed to support responses that enhance resilience and enable the FSM to withstand the changes to come.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Infrastructure, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Micronesia and Pacific Islands

57. Korea Matters for America/America Matters for Korea (2023)

Author:: East-West Center
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The 4th edition of Korea Matters for America/America Matters for Korea, part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and South Korea at the national, state, and local levels. This publication and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-Indo-Pacific relationship.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Population, Public Health, and Travel
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

58. Japan Matters for America/America Matters for Japan (2023)

Author:: East-West Center
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The 4th edition of Japan Matters for America/America Matters for Japan, part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and Japan at the national, state, and local levels. This publication and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-Indo-Pacific relationship.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Population, Public Health, and Travel
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

59. The Emissions Reduction Potential for Freight Transport on a High-speed Rail Line Along the ‘European Silk Road’

Author:: Erica Angers, Aleksandr Arsenev, and Mario Holzner
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This report estimates the CO2 emissions of freight transport on a hypothetical high-speed rail (HSR) line along the northern route, from Lyon to Warsaw, of a ‘European Silk Road’ (ESR). Using a methodology consisting of predictions regarding the freight-carrying capacity of the future HSR, and the commodity-level switchover, our results indicate that a best-case scenario, at a project lifecycle of 60 years, in which all trains run with 257 tonnes of load, provides for a reduction of 176.2 Mt of net CO2 emissions compared with current levels. These lifespan savings are comparable to a reduction of net emissions by close to 24% of the overall EU transport sector emissions (excluding air transport) of one year (as measured by the net emissions in 2018). The net negative emissions in the optimistic full-capacity scenario will compensate for the construction costs in 13 years. Thus, the potential for emission reduction along the northern route of the ESR is quite substantial, given that this is just one line, with limited capacity. This hints at the importance that bold missions, such as the construction of a pan-European HSR network, could have for the definition of a European Green Industrial Policy that is capable of supporting the fulfilment of the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, European Union, Economic Growth, Transportation, Logistics, Ecology, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

60. Industrial Policy for a New Growth Model: A Toolbox for EU-CEE Countries

Author:: Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, and Doris Hanzl-Weiss
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: The EU member states of Central Eastern Europe (EU-CEE) have experienced rapid convergence in the decades following their EU accession, and have built up strong export-oriented manufacturing sectors boosted by foreign direct investment inflows. While this growth model has brought many positives, there are indications that it is hitting its limits. Endogenous limits to EU-CEE’s growth model are exacerbated by exogenous challenges of the ‘twin’ (green and digital) transitions, and the fallout of the pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine. This reinforces the imperative for EU-CEE to transition to a more innovation-driven, new growth model, enabled by a comprehensive industrial policy. However, the EU-CEE countries have not only lacked a stable and strategic approach to industrial policy in their development paths, but also find themselves in a unique position due to EU membership. As a result, innovation and industrial policies are underdeveloped in the region. Based on an in-depth analysis of the industrial landscape and the industrial policy environment of the region, we propose eight pillars for creating a EU-CEE version of the entrepreneurial state.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, European Union, Economic Growth, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Latvia, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Czechia

61. Roadmap to Zero-Carbon Electrification of Africa by 2050: The Green Energy Transition and the Role of the Natural Resource Sector (Minerals, Fossil Fuels, and Land)

Author:: Jeffrey D. Sachs, Perrine Toledano, and Martin Dietrich Brauch
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: All Africans—whether living in urban or rural areas—need access to affordable, clean, efficient, reliable, climate- proof, and renewable energy for both residential and productive uses to achieve sustainable development objectives. This report sets out a comprehensive and actionable roadmap for Africa’s zero-carbon energy transformation by 2050, with most advances achieved by 2030. Natural resource management in minerals, fossil fuels, and land sits at the core of the strategy. The world is moving to decarbonization by 2050. This is the dominant geopolitical message of 2021, appearing, for example, in U.S. President Joe Biden’s online summit with world leaders in April 2021 and in the new IEA Report on Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. Africa will be part of this global trend. Prospective oil and gas projects in Africa will no longer be pursued as overseas markets and financing will shrink. At the same time, Africa’s vast renewable energy potential, in the solar and hydropower sectors especially, will engage increasingly bankable and highly attractive investments. In net terms, Africa has a huge amount to gain from a decisive build-up of renewable energy and the capacity to produce the minerals, hardware, and software of the new zero-carbon energy economy. Starting from a simple and transparent model of the annual investment volumes needed to provide continent-wide access to electricity based on renewable sources (Section 2), the report addresses various imperatives and challenges regarding Africa’s energy planning (Section 3) and financing (Section 4) and outlines recommendations for immediate implementation of the strategy from 2022 (Section 5).
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, Environment, Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, Decarbonization, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa

62. PLUS Politics: Tackling the EIA Impact Gap

Author:: Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Oil, gas, and mining projects can be profoundly disruptive to lives and livelihoods and damaging to air, water, soil, and vegetation. Evidence of this abounds across the world, from the Niger Delta and the Gulf of Mexico to Brumadinho, Brazil, and Porgera, Papua New Guinea. Understanding and addressing the social and environmental repercussions of EI development projects is crucial for avoiding or effectively managing such negative outcomes and fostering sustainable development. To date, environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes have been the cornerstone of efforts to identify and address social and environmental impacts of proposed development projects, including extractive industry projects and associated infrastructure. In practice, however, crucial aspects of these processes — the production of EIAs, consultations around the findings and implications of reports, and the actual use of the content of reports to inform key project decisions — are at times considerably distorted by power and incentive dynamics rooted in the political economy of a given context. The result is too often watered-down “box-ticking” exercises in which the impact of the EIA process on actual social and environmental protection can be greatly reduced. Technocratic approaches that emphasize best practices and capacity will not improve the performance of EIA processes on their own. Politically savvy approaches are needed to address the political challenges associated with EIAs, as even the most technically sound and capacitated EIA processes can be derailed by political factors. This brief is based on a longer chapter on the topic produced for a United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) publication on development corridors.1 It aims to present the gaps between various aspects of the theory and practice of EIAs, explore some of the ways in which political factors may be contributing to these gaps, and suggest how future work on social and environmental protection and management might better account for political context in hopes of achieving greater impact.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Mining
Political Geography:: Global Focus

63. Making Energy Resilient: State Strategies, Progress, and Opportunities

Author:: Morgan Higman
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Amidst energy transitions and the rising impacts of climate change, resilience is a growing part of state energy strategies. But there is relatively little consolidated information describing what states are doing to build adaptive capacities in the power sector. This report fills this gap. It examines how resilience is addressed in planning and policy resources from a selection of representative states. These resources describe anticipated hazards and vulnerabilities, use-cases for emerging clean energy technologies, and broader efforts to create new resilience institutions and authorities. Though resilience garners considerable policy attention, most state initiatives are not guided by well-defined performance goals or measures or a plan that provides an overarching vision for grid resilience. This paper highlights challenges in these areas and describes new, innovative, and replicable approaches to promote more complete and robust resilience strategies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Governance, Renewable Energy, Resilience, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Global Focus

64. Brazilian Youth Fight to Decolonize Climate Justice

Author:: Anna Beatriz Anjos
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Activists from Brazil’s urban peripheries are among the hardest hit by the climate crisis, and they are becoming increasingly active in the fight against it.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Inequality, Urban, Justice, and Political Movements
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

65. The Devastating Costs of Puerto Rico’s Solar “Farms”

Author:: Ruth Santiago, Hilda Lloréns, and Catalina de Onís
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The road to achieving sustainable energy in Puerto Rico should not be paved by bulldozing agricultural lands and coastal plains.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, Solar Power, and Energy
Political Geography:: Caribbean and Puerto Rico

66. Environmental Justice in the Age of Unnatural Disaster

Author:: Chris N. Lesser
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The recent mudslides in Petrópolis are just the latest examples of the issues of unequal access to land and precarious housing in Brazil.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Disasters, Inequality, Justice, Land, and Housing
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

67. Green New Deal for Carbon-neutrality and Open Trade Policy in Korea

Author:: Jukwan Lee, Jongduk Kim, Jinyoung Moon, Jyun-Hyun Eom, Ji Hyeon Kim, and Jungmin Suh
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study focuses on Korea’s Green New Deal policy and global response measures to climate change that affect international trade. A trade policy perspective and approach have been applied while reviewing the carbon-neutral policy pursued by the Green New Deal. We attempted through an empirical analysis to determine whether the expansion of openness helps reduce carbon emissions and simulate the impact of a carbon-neutral policy, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment, on the global economy under global production networks. In addition, the amount of financial support from Korea's Green New Deal needed to offset the negative economic effects of other countries’ independent carbon-neutral policies was derived. This study finally suggests that the effect of the Green New Deal can be expanded through the restoration of openness and global cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Economy, Trade, Carbon Emissions, and Green New Deal
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

68. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from State-Owned Enterprises: A Preliminary Inventory

Author:: Alex Clark and Philippe Benoit
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play a major role in the production of goods and services across many of the world’s largest economies, particularly in electricity generation, oil and gas, and heavy industry. SOEs (defined in this report as companies for which 50 percent or more of voting shares are held by a government) are also major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The governments that control these SOEs are also signatories to the Paris Agreement on climate change. State ownership provides these governments with a major direct point of control over the climate and energy outcomes of these companies, both in terms of reducing emissions and directing future investment into low-carbon technologies and infrastructure. Improving the measurement of SOEs’ contribution to both national and global-level emissions provides important information to help understand to what extent SOEs should be targeted and to design strategies to maximize their potential role in the broader energy transition. This report provides an accounting of direct emissions associated with SOEs globally. It is challenging to comprehensively identify every SOE, as the total is estimated at well over 100,000. In addition, most identified SOEs do not disclose their emissions nor are estimates of these emissions available in the public domain. Despite these limitations, data compiled for this report covering almost 300 major SOEs suggest that SOEs globally are responsible for at least 7.49 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) annually in direct (Scope 1) emissions. While the true scale of SOE-related emissions is likely to be substantially higher, particularly when accounting for national oil companies and iron and steel manufacturers that do not currently report their emissions, this figure is over 1 GtCO2e greater than various previous estimates, and larger than the total annual emissions of any country except China.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

69. Japan on the Front Line

Author:: Noah Sneider, Philip Lipscy, and Daniel Smith
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: From population aging, to national security threats, to climate change and natural disasters, Japan is at the forefront of challenges that will soon confront many societies. What can the world learn from Japan’s experience? Noah Sneider and Phillip Lipscy will offer their perspectives on Japan as a “harbinger state,” a country that experiences many challenges before other countries in the international system. This event is sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Study Center.
Topic:: Climate Change, National Security, Natural Disasters, and Aging
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

70. Environmental Protection and Climate Change Budgets of Metropolitan Municipalities: An Assessment For 2021

Author:: Public Expenditures Monitoring Platform
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: It is argued that cities can fulfill significant functions in the fight against global warming and climate crisis, and it is stated that for this reason, they can play a pioneering role in both reducing greenhouse gases and adapting to the changing climate. Approximately 600 cities in Europe and 9,400 cities around the world have begun to implement mitigation and adaptation measures against climate change at different levels. It is known that big cities, including many metropolitan municipalities from Turkey, cooperate at an international level for the purpose of mitigation and adaptation. The primary aim of this study is to classify1 the environmental protection and climate change (EPCC) goals stated in 2021 performance programs of 14 metropolitan municipalities (MM) and their affiliates (i.e. AF, water and sewerage administrations and transportation departments) with the highest expenditure under the goals of mitigation, adaptation, waste and other environmental goals, and to examine the budgets allocated to these goals. Also, in this review, the pros and cons of the budgets allocated for the mitigation, adaptation and waste related goals of 14 metropolitan municipalities will be evaluated together, and concrete policy recommendations will be developed as to the areas where the allocated budgets should be increased/decreased.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Budget, and Cities
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

71. Green Defence: the defence and military implications of climate change for Europe

Author:: Ben Barry and Shiloh Fetzek
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Climate change is a national security threat to Europe. It is an accelerator of conflict and requires European forces to adapt accordingly. Concurrently, armed forces can help mitigate climate change by reducing their greenhouse-gas emissions. For states that plan to reduce carbon emissions, decarbonisation of armed forces without disarming will be a challenge. This new report assesses not only the implications for European armed forces of operating in climate changed worlds, but also the opportunities for reducing carbon footprint from new technologies. It assesses the challenges of implementing the necessary changes to military operations, training and capability and identifies success factors for this essential transformation.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: Europe

72. Marine pollution: A growing concern for the southern suburb of Tunis

Author:: Khouloud Ayari
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The National Sanitation Utility (ONAS) organized a public consultation two months after a human chain demonstration took place on 12 September along the beaches of the southern suburb of Tunis. This article examines the timeline of events that took place to warn against sea degradation from 2013 until September 2021. It also provides feedback on the November 2021 public consultation, and offers insight into the current environmental issues at hand in both local and national contexts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Maritime, and Pollution
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

73. A Healthier and More Sustainable Global Food System: What is at Stake for the EU?

Author:: Marta Antonelli
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Fixing the global food system is arguably the most powerful leverage to nurture the world’s population while keeping human activity within the biophysical limits of the planet. Yet, food systems are today a threat to both human and planetary health, and thus require bold and forward-looking strategies as well as multi-stakeholder collaboration.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Health, Politics, Natural Resources, European Union, Food Security, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Europe

74. Reducing Methane Emissions from Global Gas

Author:: Ben Cahill
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Cutting methane emissions from oil and gas will help slow the pace of global warming, and methane is firmly on the international climate agenda. But how will progress on methane rules and regulations spread beyond Europe and North America, especially to regions where state utilities and national oil companies (NOCs) play a prominent role? And how can global gas trade—especially the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector—evolve in ways that lower methane emissions? This report outlines recent global, national, and sub-national efforts to curtail methane emissions from oil and gas. It analyzes how demand for cleaner, or “differentiated,” gas might develop, delving into the drivers for buyers and others in the gas ecosystem. It concludes with policy recommendations and suggested engagement strategies with global gas players.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

75. Multilateral Trade Arrangements and Climate Provisions

Author:: Emily Benson, Sparsha Janardhan, and William Alan Reinsch
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: This new paper from the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business assesses sectoral standards bodies, evaluates environmental provisions in trade agreements, and explores opportunities for addressing climate concerns in newer trade arrangements, such as the recent announcement to negotiate a deal on green steel and aluminum between the European Union and the United States. As this paper seeks to demonstrate, binding agreements with clear enforcement mechanisms are best suited for ensuring that parties meet their climate change obligations as outlined in various bilateral or multilateral agreements. Since concluding agreements that are both binding and have clear enforcement capabilities are not always possible or politically desirable, pursuing a mixed approach—one based on best practices from a diverse set of trade architectures—may be the most viable approach that produces the most tangible outcomes. This paper evaluates climate provisions in trade architectures and makes recommendations for including climate provisions, including sectoral standards, in trade arrangements in a way that encourages increased multilateral collaboration in a WTO-compliant manner.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

76. Convergence and Divergence: Multilateral Trade and Climate Agendas

Author:: William Alan Reinsch and Emily Benson
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: If the international community wants to make meaningful progress ahead of the 2030 deadline—which critics argue is still too late to avert global catastrophe—major global players should work together to reduce emissions at home and abroad. This paper discusses the politics of climate policy in the United States and how it is influenced by relationships with the European Union and China. It analyzes these international relationships through specific policies, namely subsidies, and assesses their reduction or removal in some cases and their reallocations in others. It also evaluates the politics and policy implications of carbon border adjustments, including their compliance with existing WTO rules. These trade policies allude to domestic industrial policies and how they can be adjusted to better combat climate change while complying with existing trade rules. In outlining policy options for the United States’ trade agenda, including how the European Union and China factor into these options, the paper assesses the probability that certain climate policies will ultimately materialize. The paper argues that unilateralism is insufficient and counterproductive in both trade and climate and that only through multilateral, legally compliant policy convergence can countries stave off environmental and economic collapse.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Multilateral Relations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

77. Decarbonizing Aluminum: Rolling Out a More Sustainable Sector

Author:: William Alan Reinsch and Emily Benson
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As the effects of climate change intensify, countries and industries alike are seeking new ways to decarbonize to meet emissions targets, avoid carbon border tariffs, and reduce energy costs. Today, energy use in industry is the number one contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, decarbonization of heavy industry would have a direct and immediate impact on reducing GHG emissions and slowing climate change. Aluminum is the second most used metal in the world. Its applications are numerous and fundamental, from electrical transmission to defense and construction. Aluminum is also a key input in other goods that help reduce emissions, such as electric vehicles and energy-efficient buildings, meaning that decarbonizing aluminum can help industries that are playing a critical role in global climate efforts. This paper evaluates global progress on sectoral emissions reductions and assesses policies governments can pursue to accelerate decarbonization of the aluminum sector. The aluminum industry consists of three component segments: upstream aluminum, downstream aluminum, and recycled aluminum. The upstream aluminum sector is responsible for the sourcing of raw material components from mined bauxite that is then refined into alumina and smelted into aluminum. Aluminum production is usually accomplished in two phases. In the first stage, bauxite ore is refined to obtain aluminum oxide through the Bayer process. The Hall-Heroult process of smelting the aluminum oxide to release pure aluminum comprises the second stage. Upstream production of aluminum involves the mining of bauxite and refining it into alumina. The downstream segment refers to the production of semi-fabricated aluminum products and their use in a wide range of sectors, from manufacturing and automobiles to construction and consumer products. Aluminum not only offers durability, but also is lightweight and infinitely recyclable, meaning it has clear environmental benefits compared to other similar inputs, such as steel or plastic. While aluminum does offer some environmental benefits, producing it is carbon intensive. Aluminum production processes have changed very little since the 1800s, and many countries continue to rely on coal to produce the electricity required for aluminum production. Globally, the aluminum sector contributes roughly 2 percent of GHG emissions—equivalent to about 1.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2). Yet demand for aluminum is expected to increase by 50 to 80 percent by 2050. In 2019, the aluminum industry consumed 6 percent of all global coal-fired electricity, exceeding the total amount of coal-fired electricity generated in Europe. That same year, coal-fired electricity used in aluminum electrolysis produced 636 million tons of C02 emissions, or 58 percent of the sector’s carbon footprint. On average, 72 percent of GHG emissions from primary production of aluminum are from electricity, meaning greater use of renewable energy in aluminum production could significantly decrease the sector’s carbon output. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global CO2 emissions need to decrease by 45 percent by 2030 in order to keep global warming below the 1.5 degree threshold. By accelerating the deployment of renewables and designing policies that encourage and support the decarbonization of heavy industry, the private and public sectors can play key roles in helping to reduce carbon emissions, while also continuing to grow the global economy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

78. Arctic: Toward the End of the Exception? Strategic, Nuclear and Maritime Issues in the Region

Author:: Jean-Louis Lozier
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Through multiple international initiatives, including the creation of the Arctic Council at the end of the Cold War in 1996, the Arctic appears to be one of the last areas of peaceful cooperation in the world. This “Arctic exception” is also devoid of any serious territorial dispute between the neighboring countries, some of which are nevertheless great powers: Russia, the United States, Canada, but also Sweden, Norway, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland and Finland. However, this peaceful cooperation is not exempt from strategic rivalries: for some years now, these States in the Arctic have been redefining their strategic postures, notably through the publication of roadmaps and the deployment of new military forces trained to fight in this hostile environment. Russia thus remains the dominant power in the Arctic, in the face of a China with growing ambitions and a Western world – represented in particular by the United States – which is lagging behind after years concentrated on other military conflicts. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine that started in February 2022 also carry the germs of a broader destabilization of the region. Conventional competition is therefore renewed between these great powers, while the nuclear balance is partially maintained. It is indeed worth noticing that the Arctic is an area of direct contact between the Russian Federation and the United States. As such, it had a special significance during the Cold War as the shortest route between both adversaries for a potential ballistic missile and was a privileged position for deploying chains of radars and advanced detection systems. Finally, the shrinkage of the ice pack caused by global warming is also triggering the neighboring or more distant states’ greed, whether through the drilling possibilities for raw materials under the ice floe or the creation of new maritime routes. The latter would notably enable Russia to revitalize its northern flank and offer alternatives to existing transit routes.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Cold War, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, United States of America, and North Pole

79. The EU’s Plan to Scale up Renewables by 2030: Implications for the Power System

Author:: Susanne Nies
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The climate and geopolitical crises call for speeding up the implementation of the European Green Deal around two main pillars: reducing energy consumption and investing in low-carbon alternatives. The swift and massive deployment of renewable energies (REN) is a major industrial challenge for the European electricity system. • Scaling up renewable energy (REN) is paramount for climate protection and energy security, but it is also a major industrial challenge for the European Union (EU). The REPowerEU plan requires multiplying the installed capacity for solar photovoltaic (PV) power by a factor of 3 and raising wind capacity by a factor of 2.5 in less than 8 years from now. • To achieve such ambitious targets, permit-granting and administrative processes need to be streamlined, while greater consistency between environmental and climate legislation is required for both REN and related infrastructure. • The precondition for massive REN deployment is an efficient and flexible energy system. The latter needs to be enforced throughout the Fit for 55 Package, and through European and national energy “system” development plans. • The EU’s REN ambitions – those related to offshore wind in particular – are disruptive in terms of technology needs, investments, as well as governance. Interim steps as well as regional and national strategies must be developed accordingly.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Renewable Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

80. Two Shades of Blue: Europe and the Pacific Islands, Strategic Partners in the Indo-Pacific Era

Author:: Celine Pajon
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: In recent years, France and the European Union (EU) have published their respective Indo-Pacific strategies and a Ministerial Forum was held in Paris on February 22, 2022, bringing together over 60 foreign affairs ministers from European and Pacific Island countries. France and the EU are re-engaging in this strategic region, which is an economic and political center of gravity whose stability is threatened by transnational risks (climate change, epidemics, pressure on natural resources) and by inter-state tensions exacerbated by US-China rivalry. However, the area spanning the 22 member countries and territories of the Pacific Community (SPC) has received less attention and can even be described as a blind spot in these Indo-Pacific discussions. Yet, although they have a population of only 13 million, these Pacific Island states and territories have a combined Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of almost 40 million square kilometers (km2) and are strategically located close to East Asia. These territories and their natural resources have attracted and still attract keen interest and sometimes very violent competition between powers. Today, the Pacific Islands are on the front line of the global existential challenges of climate change, biodiversity protection and sustainable development, but also geostrategic rivalries. Due to the geographical distance and Europe's still limited knowledge of this region, political, economic and media interest is often lacking. For this reason, Ifri and the Pacific Community (SPC) have decided to organize a research program on the strategic importance of the Pacific Islands. This Briefing is based on discussions that took place at the program’s opening conference on March 10, 2022; contributions from panelists will therefore be highlighted. This report provides an overview of current regional issues in the Pacific Islands and argues for greater European engagement in the region. This rapprochement is justified firstly because European and Pacific Island countries share similar values and face similar challenges, and secondly because new European interest and facilities make Europe a partner of choice to support sustainable development in the Pacific Islands. Since this engagement will come with various challenges, recommendations for European decision-makers are outlined in the conclusions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Indo-Pacific, and Pacific Ocean

81. Prepping for COP27

Author:: Thomas L. Crisman, David Dumke, and Zachary S. Winters
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Egypt is a microcosm for the impacts of climate change being felt across the MENA region, with water loss at the very top. It should likewise be high on the agenda when Cairo hosts this year’s UN climate summit
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and MENA

82. WTO 2025: Getting back to the negotiating table

Author:: Alan Wm. Wolff
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The negotiation of multilateral agreements has stalled at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The action is among groups of like-minded WTO Members, either regionally or in open plurilateral agreements (OPAs) in Geneva at the WTO. There is currently no consensus among WTO Members to include plurilateral agreements officially in the set of WTO agreements. Many additional challenges require multilateral—that is, global—agreements: the pandemic, food security, and climate change, among them. A breakthrough is needed to get WTO negotiations back on track.
Topic:: Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Food Security, Multilateralism, COVID-19, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

83. Climate-Resilient Migrant-Friendly Towns: A Conceptual Framework

Author:: Mizan R. Khan, Madiha Chowdhury, and Saleemul Huq
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: For the last few years, ever increasing climate change impacts resulting from the new normal of extreme events are becoming a rude fact of life around the world. The findings of the Working Group-1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in August 2021 again provides mortal warnings about the impending climate crisis. The impacts are particularly stark in South Asia, the most populous region on Earth. Within South Asia, Bangladesh stands as the most vulnerable: 4.1 million people were displaced due to climate disasters in 2019 (2.5% of the population), with 13.3 million people likely to face displacement by climate change by 2050, and 18% of its coastland will remain inundated by 2080 (Rigaud, et al. 2018). The Paris Agreement goal of keeping the temperature rise at 1.5°C or well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial times cannot be achieved, given the lack of ambitious mitigation, when we already live with 1.1°C higher temperature. As a result, the number of people estimated to be displaced by slow-onset events will stand at ~22.5 million by 2030 and ~34.4 million by 2050 in South Asia including Bangladesh (Singh, et. al. 2020). Where will all these people go? A land area of 147,570 km2 is inhabited by 165 million people. So, Bangladesh has no space to retreat. Estimates show that about half a million people displaced by river-bank erosion move to Dhaka city alone, crowding the slums and mounting pressure on limited city services. In such a situation, one option to address displacements in a world of increasing urbanization including in Bangladesh could be the transformation of smaller towns to be climate resilient and migrant-friendly (CRMFT). This option appears practicable for populous countries like Bangladesh, having little or no space for retreat from vulnerable hotspots. In this context, several queries can be raised: What is the rationale of the model of CRMFT? What does make a town climate resilient and migrant-friendly? What are its elements and dimensions? While responding to these queries, this policy brief attempts to design a framework for CRMFT, though it may differ across physical and socio-economic boundaries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Displacement, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

84. What does the IPCC Working Group II say about Bangladesh in its Sixth Assessment Report?

Author:: Saleemul Huq, Md. Bodrud-Doza, Khandker Tarin Tahsin, and Mizan R. Khan
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: In March and April 2017 Bangladesh experienced drastic floods which affected 220,000 ha of nearly ready to be harvested summer paddy crop and resulted in almost a 30% year on year increase in paddy prices. An attribution study of those pre-monsoon extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh concluded that anthropogenic climate change doubled the likelihood of the extreme rainfall events resulting in such floods. Forecast-based financing, which automatically triggers funds when threshold forecasts are reached for an extreme event, used in Bangladesh prior to a 2017 flood event, allowed low-income, flood-prone communities to access better quality food in the short term without accruing debt.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Food Security, Flood, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

85. Weathering shocks: the effects of weather shocks on farm input use in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Aimable Nsabimana
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: : There has been much discussion on climate change and its adverse effects on agriculture, including excessive loss of food production. In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture is the major source of household livelihoods, shocks in weather patterns affect farmers’ expectations of farm yield and hence the decision to adopt farm inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides and the extent of their utilization, particularly given the relatively high cost of these inputs. In this study, I explore the relationship between weather shocks and the intensity of inputs use at the plot level using large-scale national panel data from three African countries: Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzania. By combining monthly drought index data with a rich Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture dataset, I find that the intensity of chemical fertilizer use reduces much more in drought-prone areas than in less drought-prone areas during growing seasons. I also find that drought during lean seasons is associated with higher pesticide uptake. The evidence suggests that drought induces farmers to purposively reduce farm investments, including yield-enhancing technology such as chemical fertilizer, hence worsening adverse farm yield effects.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, Weather, and Chemical Fertilizer
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

86. The Rising National Security Threats from Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region

Author:: Katerina Sokou
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Climate change hazards, from rising sea levels to forest fires, are set to asymmetrically impact the Mediterranean’s coastal ecosystems. In addition to increased natural disasters, climate change also will exacerbate the region’s economic vulnerabilities stemming from resource scarcity, heat stress, and impacts on tourism. With increased stress on populations in the region, climate pressures have the potential to indirectly exacerbate violent conflict. The potential for future threats from climate change necessitates that nations consider not only national climate plans, but strategies to mitigate global pressures on supply chains, food systems, and economic interdependencies to manage cross-border risks. The United Nations Environment Programme’s Mediterranean Action Plan serves as a starting point by assessing these risks. Building on it, the European Union can direct development assistance towards strengthening countries’ abilities to adapt, further strengthened by transatlantic cooperation. In anticipation of the security ramifications of climate change, NATO should set climate adaptation as a priority. The transition to renewable energy will result in both economic and geopolitical benefits through the creation of jobs and development of advanced technologies. Tourism, which makes up a fifth of Greece’s GDP, is likely to be adversely impacted by higher temperatures and natural disasters. This could generate additional risk for Greece’s financial credibility. The EU should consider this as a threat to the institution as a whole, with Greece and Cyprus the member states most vulnerable to climate change. Fortunately, Greece has a solid foundation from which to build up its climate resiliency, as strategies to this end are part of the Greece 2.0 plan and the country is already one of the top producers of wind and solar energy globally. The Mediterranean should not be making these efforts alone as economic and geopolitical stressors cause cross-border instability, a strong motivator for the region and partners to deliberately address climate adaptation in tandem.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, National Security, Natural Disasters, and European Union
Political Geography:: Mediterranean

87. Energy as a Tool for Israeli-Palestinian Peacebuilding

Author:: Bar Rapaport
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This article focuses on energy as a tool for promoting peace between Israel and the Palestinians. It describes how the energy relations between Israel and the Palestinians reflect the existing relationship between the parties, and the potential they hold for promoting cooperation and peace. The energy sector and the energy relations between Israel and the Palestinians largely determine the level of energy services and electricity infrastructure in the West Bank. At present, this dependency does not benefit either party. The article points to a number of current initiatives aimed at strengthening Palestinian energy independence as well as energy security. At the same time, it highlights the inherent tensions in the management of the energy sector in the Israeli-Palestinian case, for example between energy independence and energy poverty in the West Bank and between responses to the climate crisis and the need for energy security. Finally, the article argues that the energy sector must be examined as an integral part of the political-diplomatic relationship between Israel and the Palestinians and that it must address the various tensions and promote energetic cooperation in the interest of peace.
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, Peacebuilding, and Energy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

88. Mine Action and the Environment in Karabakh

Author:: Emil Hasanov
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The now‑liberated areas of Azerbaijan are contaminated by mines and explosive remnants of war (ERW), the clearance thereof being one of Baku’s highest post‑conflict priorities. Before proceeding any further, we must provide proper definitions of these terms, since they are technical in nature and thus may not be familiar to the general reader. According to the Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti‑Personnel Mines and on Their Destruction that was adopted in Oslo in 1997 and entered into force in 1999 (it is colloquially called the AntiPersonnel Mine Ban Convention, or APMBC), an anti‑personnel mine “means a mine designed to be exploded by the presence, proximity or contact of a person and that will incapacitate, injure or kill one or more persons.” An antivehicle or antitank mine is effectually the same thing, except that it is designed to explode when triggered by a vehicle. Together, they fall under the catchall term mine, which the same document defines as a “munition designed to be placed under, on, or near the ground or other surface area and to be exploded by the presence, proximity, or contact of a person or a vehicle.” Furthermore, explosive remnants of war (ERW) are defined as explosive munitions left behind after a conflict has ended. They include unexploded artillery shells, grenades, mortars, rockets, air‑dropped bombs, and cluster munitions. If such weapons fail to detonate as intended for whatever reason, they are called unexploded ordnance (UXO); if, on the other hand, they have not been used during an armed conflict and have been left behind by the party that brought them to the battlefield, they are called abandoned explosive ordnance (AXO). Lastly, cluster bombs or cluster munitions, which are defined as weapons containing from several to hundreds of explosive submunitions. They are dropped either from the air or fired from the ground and are designed to break open in mid‑air, releasing submunitions and saturating an area that can be as wide as several football pitches. Based on past practice, the failure rate of cluster munitions to explode as intended stands at between 10 and 30 percent.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Mining, and Recovery
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Asia, and Azerbaijan

89. Unfarmed Now, Uninhabited When? Agriculture and climate change in Iraq

Author:: Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Small-scale farmers in Iraq are among the most affected groups in Iraq by climate change and water scarcity. With the reduction of rainfall and soaring temperature, agricultural production is dropping, and farmers’ ability to cope is hindered. Affected farmers are exhausted and feel that they are left alone in the face of crisis. Many farmers are leaving their lands and looking for better opportunities away from their land and the urban areas. Duty bearers need to mobilize resources and political well to support farmers and the agricultural sector through a national strategy with clear vision on the current needs and comprehensive forecast of the impacts of climate change. While agriculture is at the heart of Iraq’s past and present, its position in the country’s future is at risk.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Food, and Farming
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

90. Environment in Times of War: Climate and Energy Challenges in the Post-Soviet Region

Author:: Aldo Ferrari and Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine has been devastating both politically and environmentally. On top of the environmental damage directly caused by military operations, the invasion has put an abrupt end to the EU-Russia “green cooperation”, which had previously raised many hopes. At the same time, it has also shifted international attention away from climate and environmental concerns, which are particularly acute in the post-Soviet region. This Report analyses some of the main climate change and environmental issues in the post-Soviet space, providing an initial assessment of the invasion’s impact. The bulk of the latest scholarly and policy production on these matters focuses on Russia — given the country’s geopolitical and energy relevance. However, this analysis finds that environmental disasters such as the desertification of the Aral Sea transcend state borders and require a broader approach both from an analytic and policy standpoint.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, War, European Union, Post-Soviet Space, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

91. Decarbonisation of the energy system

Author:: Georg Zachmann, Alexander Roth, Ben McWilliams, Franziska Holz, Robin Sogalla, Frank Meissner, and Claudia Kemfert
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Three quarters of the European Union’s greenhouse gas emissions stem from burning coal, oil and natural gas to produce energy services, including heating for buildings, transportation and operation of machinery. The transition to climate neutrality means these services must be provided without associated emissions. It is not possible today to determine tomorrow’s optimal clean energy system, largely because the cost, limitations and capability developments of competing technologies cannot be predicted. Energy systems with widely diverging shares of ‘green fuels’, in the form of electricity, hydrogen and synthetic hydrocarbons, remain conceivable. We find the overall cost of these systems to be of the same order of magnitude, but they involve larger investments at different stages of value chains. A large share of synthetic hydrocarbons would require more investment outside the EU, but less in domestic infrastructure and demand-side appliances, while electrification requires large investment in domestic infrastructure and appliances. Current projections show an overall cost advantage for direct electrification, but projections will evolve and critical players may push hard for alternative fuels. Policy will thus play a major role in shaping this balance. Political decisions should, first, push out carbon-emitting technology, primarily through carbon pricing. The more credible and predictable this strategy is over the coming decades, the smoother will be both divestment from brown technologies and investment in green technologies. Second, policy needs to help ensure that enough climate-neutral alternatives are available in time. Clear public support should be given to three system decisions about which we are sufficiently confident: the massive roll-out of renewable electricity generation; the electrification of significant shares of final energy consumption; and rapid phase-out of coal from electricity generation. For energy services where no dominant system has yet emerged, policy should forcefully explore different solutions by supporting technological and regulatory experimentation. Given the size and urgency of the transition, the current knowledge infrastructure in Europe is insufficient. Data on the current and projected state of the energy system remains inconsistent, either published in different places or not at all. This impedes the societal discussion. The transition to climate neutrality in Europe and elsewhere will be unnecessarily expensive without a knowledge infrastructure that allows society to learn which technologies, systems, and polices work best under which circumstances.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

92. The role of competition in the transition to climate neutrality

Author:: Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The transition to climate neutrality requires the reallocation of production factors from polluting activities to non-polluting activities. The main push for this reallocation will come from governmental decarbonisation targets that are translated into stringent climate policy tools, such as carbon pricing and emissions standards. But the complex process of recombining production factors will require the coordination of millions of individuals and firms. The efficiency of this recombination process will be a main driver of the cost of the transition. Based on a consistent analytical framework, I argue that much more political attention should be paid to the markets and regulators that guide the re-allocation of production factors, to bring them in line with a carbon-neutral economy at the best service of European consumers. Three main issues should be considered: 1. The transition will change the role and efficiency of markets in allocating resources; 2. Competitive markets can make the transition more efficient; 3. In some areas, a too-narrow focus on competition can be detrimental, and needs to be discussed. To improve the institutions for resource allocation in the transition, policymakers should revisit three levels of intervention: 1) competition rules and enforcement should be adjusted to meet the new challenges of the transition; 2) efficient markets that are central to a climate-neutral economy – such as for electricity, emission rights or circular logistics – need to be properly designed; 3) the advantages and disadvantages of more direct state control in specific sectors should be revisited in light of the challenges of the transition. In summary, policymakers need to get away from simplistic state-or-market narratives. The focus should be on developing politically feasible frameworks for leveraging the benefits of competition for efficient resource allocation in the transition. Institutions should not focus solely on static efficiency, but must forcefully encourage investments in new systems and innovation. The role of institutions that determine resource allocation in the transition is an underappreciated but crucial area for future research and policy action.
Topic:: Climate Change, Institutions, Pollution, Carbon Emissions, Neutrality, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

93. Legal options for a green golden rule in the European Union’s fiscal framework

Author:: Zsolt Darvas
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Achieving the European Union’s climate goals and decoupling from Russian energy will require a massive increase in green public spending, which will be difficult when EU fiscal rules requiring fiscal consolidation are reinstated. The two major proposals to address the conflicting goals of fiscal consolidation and increased green public investment needs are a possible new European climate investment fund and a green golden rule. The latter would exclude any increase in net green public investment from the fiscal indicators used to measure compliance with fiscal rules, for countries with sound public finances. An EU climate fund and a well-designed green golden rule would be equivalent in terms of project selection, implementation and control procedures. If the climate fund does not involve redistribution across member states, then the treatment of related spending and consequent borrowing in national fiscal indicators and in the EU’s fiscal framework would be the same. New regulations would be needed to set up both the climate fund and the green golden rule. Special legislation would be needed to exempt the subsequent climate expenditures from EU fiscal rules in both cases. A climate fund financed by EU borrowing with redistributive effects across countries would likely result in the exclusion of the fund’s activities from national fiscal indicators and EU fiscal rules without any legislative changes. There are question marks about the desirability and political feasibility of redistribution across the EU for climate purposes. An EU climate fund, irrespective of whether or not it involves redistribution, would mainly benefit southern and eastern EU countries. An instrument is needed to foster green public investment in western and northern EU countries as well. The green golden rule would be such an instrument. While there are some pragmatic options to mimic a green golden rule in the current EU fiscal framework, such as amending the so-called ‘investment clause’ and adjusting the medium-term objective for the structural balance, ultimately, elements of the 2011 Six-Pack legislation and the 2012 Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance should be revised to include a green golden rules.
Topic:: Climate Change, Law, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

94. False Alarm over the Retreat of the Himalayan Glaciers

Author:: Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar and Vijay K. Raina
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Many activists and journalists warn that rapidly melting Himalayan glaciers due to global warming will have catastrophic consequences. The glaciers have been melting since the end of the last ice age 11,700 years ago, but the melting has not worsened recently. Satellite studies suggest that the vast majority of glaciers in the Himalayas are stable, a minority are shrinking, and a few are advancing. The retreat of the Gangotri Glacier, the source of the Ganges River, has decelerated in recent decades to 10 meters (33 feet) per year, at which rate it will last 3,000 years.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Glaciers
Political Geography:: Himalayas

95. Real Effects of Climate Policy: Financial Constraints and Spillovers

Author:: Söhnke M. Bartram
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Climate change is among the most intensely debated socioeconomic issues of current times. As a response to potential catastrophic risks from climate change, governments around the world are pushing for various regulations to curb greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is far from a consensus on optimal policy approaches, and as a result, climate policies are highly fragmented across the jurisdictions in which they are designed and implemented. More importantly, it is unknown whether such localized yet uncoordinated policies are able to internalize potential externalities that may impede efforts to address climate change as a global phenomenon or simply distort allocations in the economy. For example, at the beginning of 2013, California became the first and only state to put a comprehensive mandatory carbon regulation in place in the form of a cap‐and‐trade system that applies universally to all industrial greenhouse gas emissions. Exploiting the introduction of the California cap‐and‐trade rule, we investigate the internal resource‐allocation responses by firms and the real but unintended spillover effects of localized climate policies that arise from the importance of financial constraints. Our study analyzes the interplay between climate policy and firm behavior, and it informs policymakers regarding the effectiveness of climate regulation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Regulation, Economy, Business, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

96. Caring in a changing climate: Centering care work in climate action

Author:: Seema Arora-Johnson, Maeve Cohen, and Sherilyn MacGregor
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The global care crisis is being exacerbated by the global climate emergency, with interlocking impacts that threaten lives and livelihoods in all parts of the world. These impacts are particularly severe among rural livelihoods in low-income countries. Climate change intensifies the work involved in caring for people, animals, plants, and places. It reduces the availability and quality of public services in marginalized communities and directly compounds the unfair distribution of unpaid care work that sustains gender inequality. Yet the intersections of climate change and care work have been overlooked in the development literature. Strategies for climate mitigation and adaptation have paid relatively little attention to how care work is affected by climate impacts, nor have they considered whether interventions improve or intensify the situation of carers. Instead, when designing “gender-sensitive” climate actions, the focus has been largely on women’s economic empowerment as opposed to alleviating or transforming existing distributions of care work. The aim of this report is to fill a knowledge gap by examining the points of interaction between climate change impacts and the amount, distribution, and conditions of unpaid care work. We focus on care workers rather than those who are cared for, while stressing the relational nature of care and acknowledging that carers too require care.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Migration
Political Geography:: Global Focus

97. Carbon Pricing: A primer for Oxfam

Author:: James Morrissey
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Carbon pricing is not a new phenomenon. Backed by widespread consensus in the economic literature that it is the single most effective policy for addressing climate change, it has been the staple policy priority of many environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Yet carbon pricing has seen limited uptake. Efforts to price carbon have failed in a multitude of contexts. Where they have passed, in most cases, prices have been set too low or covered too little of the economy to effectively address the challenge posed by climate change. As a result, climate advocates have come to question carbon pricing as a primary policy approach. In this context, this paper is not intended to provide novel insights into carbon pricing, nor is it intended to motivate for or against an immediate campaign priority at Oxfam. Rather, this review of carbon pricing is intended to provide a technical background on the topic, considering the concerns that are of greatest salience to Oxfam. The specific aims of the paper are to support Oxfam staff in their deliberation on whether, when, and how to engage on carbon pricing initiatives, as questions around this policy approach shift over the next 20 years. It is anticipated that such reflection would also be useful to a number of organizations whose concerns are similar to Oxfam’s.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, NGOs, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

98. Climate change and food prices in Southeast Asia

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Southeast Asia’s climate has become warmer, wetter and more unpredictable over the past decade. Our bespoke analysis finds that these changes in weather conditions have had a significant impact on the cost of food production in levels terms and in increased food price volatility. Specifically, a 1% increase in temperature versus a year ago is found to increase food production costs by 0.5-0.8% across Southeast Asian economies, and extreme heat events in Thailand and Vietnam in recent years have driven price spikes of 5-6%. Climate futures in which temperatures rise fastest and weather volatility increases most have the potential to generate ever-faster food price growth and greater price spikes. More stable food prices are, therefore, one key incentive for governments in the region to do their part to help the world transition toward net zero. But the sector’s intensive use of energy and logistics to produce and distribute food will mean the shift to low-carbon energy could also have major cost implications for the sector. So while prices may be more stable in a net-zero world, they will nevertheless face pressures from the transition. Fortunately, the government can explore a range of policy options to ease the cost of transition and mitigate the impact of food price volatility. These policy options encompass agricultural policy, energy efficiency, social policy, and trade and investment policies. Together with Food Industry Asia, Oxford Economics looks forward to developing this debate in the months and years ahead, building on the foundations presented in this report.
Topic:: Climate Change, Food Security, Weather, and Price
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

99. Is there a Future for Europe

Author:: Nuno Wahnon Martins
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: At a time when the European Union and the world were discussing green agendas and combatingt the climate crisis, the war in Ukraine brought notions and principles that Europe had long since buried out of the depths of history. Suddenly, taboo subjects like defence and nuclear energy are back on the table. Does this Europe really have a future?
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, European Union, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe

100. Cumulative climate shocks and migratory flows: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Salvatore Di Falco, Anna B. Kis, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Migration, and Drought
Political Geography:: Sub-Saharan Africa

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