Publication Year: within 10 Years and within 25 Years / Topic: Populism

1. Decoding India’s 2024 National Elections

Author:: Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: India’s 2024 national election is billed to be the biggest election in history. The mammoth exercise which involves the participation of 986 million voters and more than 600 political parties will last 44 days before the results are announced on June 4. It is also billed to be the most expensive elections in the world (Pradhan 2024), overtaking the United States elections. The noteworthy fact about this mega exercise is that nearly the entire process will be conducted through Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). A staggering 5.5 million EVMs will be used to conduct this mammoth exercise spanning over two months (Business Standard 2024-03-16). Further, the 2024 national elections will determine who gets to occupy the Lok Sabha or Lower House of the Parliament. The party or a coalition of parties that gets a majority in the LoK Sabha will get to nominate its Prime Minister and run the government for next five years.
Topic:: Elections, Populism, Domestic Politics, Welfare, Misinformation, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2. Paying Off Populism: How Regional Policies Affect Voting Behavior

Author:: Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper shows that regional policies can decrease populist support. We focus on the “development objective” (Objective-1) of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), meant to support lagging-behind regions. For causal inference, we exploit three sources of quasi-exogenous variation in a Regression-Discontinuity-Design (RDD), a Difference-in- Differences framework (DiD), and with matching techniques. Using NUTS3-level panel data on the outcomes of elections to the EU parliament, observed over the period 1999-2019, we consistently find that Objective-1 transfers reduces the vote share of right-fringe parties by about 2.5 pp. Left-fringe party support is not affected. Complementary analyses of individual-level survey data from the Eurobarometer show that the European Regional Policy increases trust in democratic institutions and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:: Political Economy, European Union, Populism, Regional Integration, Currency, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

3. Paying Off Populism: EU-Regionalpolitik verringert Unterstützung populistischer Parteien

Author:: Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: How to break the populist wave? With the elections to the European Parliament ahead, and the Presidential Elections in the US looming, this question bothers policymakers in many Western democracies. Our study shows that regional policies effectively decrease populist support. Specifically, EU Regional Policy investing into the development of lagging-behind regions decreases the vote share obtained by right-fringe populist parties by 15–20 percent. Moreover, regional policy investments increase trust in democratic institutions, and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:: Political Economy, European Union, Populism, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

4. Between Tradition and Transformation: The Impact of Illiberal Populism on Georgia’s Democratic Aspirations

Author:: Giorgi Iakobishvili
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The article examines the role of Georgian far-right illiberal populist groups in Georgian politics and their influence on Georgia’s foreign policy and the ongoing democratization process, emphasizing Euroscepticism, liberal institutional development, and the pro-Russian narrative. Using qualitative research methodology, we analyzed the programs, manifestos, and public speeches of well-known groups active in Georgian politics, such as People's Power, Georgian March, Georgian Idea, Unity, Essence, Hope (ERI), and Alliance of Patriots of Georgia. Analysis of the mentioned material, as well as various scientific studies, shows that the discourse of these groups is dominated by xenophobic, nationalist, populist, and racist rhetoric, which represents a significant challenge to Georgia’s European integration path and in the direction of democratization of its governance system. In the long term, we concluded that the existence and development of these illiberal populist actors threaten Georgia’s aspirations for European integration and democratic development. This study contributes to a broader discourse about populism and illiberal views in the Georgian reality, focusing on the influence of these ideologies on the formation of the country’s foreign policy and orientation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democracy, Populism, Domestic Politics, Illiberalism, and Euroskepticism
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

5. The Impact of Populist Executive on the Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America

Author:: Seungho Lee
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Populist forces have been resilient in Latin America and continue to cause instability and uncertainty across the region. Populist figures in the region first rose to prominence during the period of import substitution industrialization in the 1930s, capitalizing on the growing demands for mass politics and better social benefits from the rapidly expanding urban working class. Populism, which had been rampant in Latin America for more than 30 years since then, seemed to fade into obscurity with military regimes which have dominated regional politics in the 1960s and 1970s. However, after a series of democratic transitions, Latin American democracies witnessed yet another wave of populism. A notable number of candidates with a populist discourse have achieved victories in presidential elections in the 1980s and 1990s. With the wave of democratization and the accumulation of public dissatisfaction due to a series of economic crises, some so-called neopopulists took power in a number of Latin American countries. They attracted voters by combining neoliberal economic policies with the typical “us-versus-them” discourse, demonstrating that any economic ideology can be linked to populist ideas. The new millennium witnessed another tide of populist presidents across the region. While a rapid transition to neoliberal policies led to various socioeconomic problems, traditional parties and politicians could not respond effectively to the emerging problems. This time around, left-wing populist figures dominated the region’s political landscapes, combining populist ideas with so-called 21st-century socialism. While the era of radical left-wing populists came to an end, new breeds of populists appeared one after another and were elected to office in the 2010s. Not many expect that populist executives will cease to exist across the region in the near future. Social and economic inequality is worsening in the aftermath of COVID-19, and the public distrust of established party politics and existing democratic institutions is growing more than ever. All in all, there is fertile ground for populist forces to spread even more, who claim that they are the only ones who can eliminate the "incompetent and corrupt" establishment and truly represent the "virtuous" people. Against this backdrop, there is a growing need to improve our understanding of the characteristics of populist governments that have repeatedly emerged in the region. Among many channels through which populist rule influences Latin American countries, Lee et al. (2022) dedicate one of their chapters to analyzing the impact of populist rule on the inflow of foreign direct investment, a variable of much importance in Latin American economies.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Populism, and Instability
Political Geography:: Latin America

6. Los retos de Honduras en materia de inseguridad. El dilema de Xiomara Castro ante el populismo punitivo y de la seguridad.

Author:: Javier Lozano Cobos
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: La militarización y el combate como herramienta casi exclusiva contra la violencia y la inseguridad ha sido el paradigma de profundo calado en Honduras y la mayor parte de la región, lo que implica la solución a los problemas de inseguridad en clave de guerra. Este conflicto asimétrico entre los grupos criminales y los Estados se recrudeció a raíz de la Guerra contra las Drogas iniciada por el presidente mexicano Calderón, y no es sino la continuación de las diversas guerras contra ya ensayadas en Centroamérica bajo inspiración de los EEUU. Con la llegada al poder de la presidenta hondureña, Xiomara Castro, se advertía un cambio en relación a las políticas de seguridad que no se enfocaran exclusivamente en la mano dura, sino que abordara la reforma integral del Estado priorizando la lucha contra la corrupción y la impunidad, así como la mejora de la calidad de la democracia. Una ola de populismo punitivo recorre la región, pero la mejora en los niveles de inseguridad en Honduras no será sostenible mediante el uso exclusivo de la fuerza ni estados de excepción.
Topic:: Corruption, Human Rights, War on Drugs, Democracy, Geopolitics, Inequality, Populism, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America

7. Opiate of the Masses: Analysing Dynamics, Rhetoric, and Sociopolitical Consequences of Populism in Contemporary Politics of Pakistan

Author:: Muhammad Kamran Fiaz and Rafida Nawaz
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Populism is a political phenomenon that has gained significant attention in recent times due to its ability to appeal to the masses for common good and to bring about changes in established political systems. It has become a significant political force in many parts of the world, including Pakistan. Pakistan is a country that has experienced political instability and economic challenges since its inception. While populism has provided a platform for addressing the grievances of marginalized communities, it has also posed significant challenges to democratic governance and economic stability. Mixed method research approach is utilized in the study to examine the role of populism in the political history of Pakistan. To study political dynamics of Pakistan, the works of scholars such as Ernesto Laclau, Chantal Mouffe, Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe Schmitter are used in the research paper. To gather empirical data, a questionnaire has been employed as a research tool. This enables a deeper understanding of recent developments in populism within Pakistan. By examining the historical and social context of Pakistan and identifying the factors that have contributed to the rise of populist movements in the country, the research paper aims to analyze the developments of populism in Pakistan offering insights into its potential benefits and pitfalls. The findings of the study will have significant implications for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners in Pakistan and beyond.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

8. Security Paradigm in the Age of Mass Surveillance

Author:: Gulshan Majeed and Muhammad Naveed Sial
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: In this age of social media and technological advancement, people are more connected than ever. People are connected to each other, to their physician, grocery and clothing store. They are shopping online and sending personal and intimate messages. People are being tracked wherever they go simply from their phones. These are the foot prints which they are leaving. The foot prints through CCTV cameras, their social media and their internet searches. Spy agencies use these foot prints for profiling and to keep citizens safe from antisocial elements. There is a draw back of these measures as they cost citizens of their fundamental right of privacy and most importantly, the breach of trust. Analytical approach has been employed to identify the risks involved into mass surveillance and data breach of the citizens. Right activists believe that this data is at risk and it might go into the hands of terrorists, populist far-right or authoritarian governments who in turn might use this data to target political opponents. In this fast-changing environment, national security paradigm is shifting in these recent times.
Topic:: National Security, Cybersecurity, Social Media, Populism, Surveillance, Data, Civil Liberties, and Edward Snowden
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9. Territorial Loss and Ethnopopulism

Author:: Perry Jess Carter and Grigore Pop-Eleches
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This paper highlights the overlooked role of prior grievances stemming from historical territorial loss as a significant factor behind support for ethnopopulist parties. While not essential for the emergence of ethnopopulism, territorial loss uniquely aligns with the backward-looking victimization framing crucial to these parties’ electoral success. Utilizing cross-national experimental and observational data from original surveys conducted in 2020–2021 in Romania, Hungary, Germany, and Turkey, we establish territorial loss attitudes as a robust predictor of ethnopopulist party support. In addition to variations in national context, a trade-off emerges for governing populists, revealing that priming past losses attracts concerned voters but alienates those indifferent to territorial issues. Analyzing a quasi-natural experiment involving a new ethnopopulist party that emerged in Romania between waves, we conclude that loss attitudes are stable over time and temporally prior to support for populism.
Topic:: Politics, Territorial Disputes, Populism, and Territory
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Germany, Romania, and Hungary

10. Duterte’s pandemic populism: Strongman leadership, weak state capacity, and the politics of deployment in the Philippines

Author:: Julio C. Teehankee
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic undermined the populist legacy of Philippine president Rodrigo R. Duterte. Despite implementing one of the longest and strictest lockdowns globally, the country has struggled with controlling the pandemic. While Duterte looks to have triumphed in his attack on human rights and press freedom, his government’s record in combating the virus has been spotty at best. Yet Duterte’s populism has proven to be resilient. He has remained extremely popular, with a September 2021 national survey reporting 81 per cent approval of his government’s response to the pandemic and 91 per cent of respondents expressing trust in his leadership. The irony of Duterte’s populist resilience amid his poor pandemic response serves to highlight his mastery of political deployment within a weak state. Two significant inputs are required to deploy state capacity into a range of outcomes: political coalitions (including leadership, classes, and parties) and a balance of social forces. The ‘politics of deployment’ depends on the quality of decision-making of state leadership and the political coalitions forged to support such decision-making. Decisions, in turn, depend on the balance of social forces—the resistance or support of various sectors in society. This paper will unpack Duterte’s deployment of ‘brute force governance’ (which he earlier employed in his bloody ‘war on drugs’) in addressing the COVID19 crisis in the Philippines.
Topic:: Populism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Rodrigo Duterte
Political Geography:: Philippines and Asia-Pacific

11. The Crisis of Civilization Paradigm: Co-Radicalization of Islamist and Populist Groups in Europe

Author:: Ayhan Kaya
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Europe is facing several problems, some of which revolve around the issues of migration and integration of third-country nationals. Civilizational and culturalist paradigms seem to have poisoned how many European citizens have perceived Muslim-origin people. In this short intervention, Islamophobism, populism, nativism, Islamism, radicalization, extremism, violence, and terrorism are among the issues to be discussed, deliberated, and communicated. This intervention attempts to elaborate the destructive nature of the civilizational paradigm in Europe, leading to the co-radicalization of Islamist and right-wing populist groups.
Topic:: Radicalization, Populism, Discrimination, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Europe

12. The Pandemic Exposes and Exacerbates Existing Problems of Inequality and Polarization

Author:: Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: During the COVID-19 pandemic, while some democracies (such as Canada and Australia) have been able to respond effectively, the five large democracies of the United States, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines have suffered severe effects on public health. In this commentary, Joshua Kurlantzick, a Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains how social and economic inequalities in these countries are the cause of their ineffective responses to the pandemic. He then points out how populist politicians in these countries have exacerbated inequality during the pandemic with their rhetoric and policy. The author then argues that despite political, economic, and social problems in these countries, leaders have an opportunity to alleviate inequality through major democratizing reforms, as there is a public sentiment of wanting to work together to overcome the pandemic.
Topic:: Democracy, Inequality, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Indonesia, India, Brazil, Philippines, and United Nations

13. Sri Lanka’s Arab Spring Moment: Can Asia’s Oldest Democracy Weather the Crisis?

Author:: Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Sri Lanka, Asia`s oldest democracy, faces political and economic crisis, and protests continue on the streets day after day. Niranjan Sashoo, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, discusses the deeper structural factors and historical background behind the political and economic crisis in this issue briefing. Dr. Sahoo states that it`s hard to predict where Sri Lanka`s future democracy will go, but the long-running rule of the Rajapaksa family is likely to end as protests continue to demand the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He argues that the resignation of the pro-China Rajapaksa family is an opportunity for Sri Lanka to move away from China`s influence and deepen ties with major democracies in Asia and the West.
Topic:: Corruption, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: South Asia and Sri Lanka

14. Authoritarian Populism as a Response to Crisis: The Case of Brazil

Author:: Esra Akgemci
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This article demonstrates that the authoritarian populist strategy is most appealing when leaders create a sense of crisis and present themselves as having the only solution. The article underlines three performative methods of how Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil offered simple answers for a crisis and portrayed other political actors as the responsible ones to be removed. Firstly, nativism presents a conservative view on how politics should be structured by perceiving all “non-natives” as threatening. Secondly, messianism, the fetishism of Bolsonaro as a “messiah” who leads the way in the battle between “good” and “evil,” serves to reinforce the support of the Evangelist base against “PT members.” Finally, conspiracism provides an easy way to eradicate ambiguities and helps to fuel an antagonism against the “enemy.”
Topic:: Security, Authoritarianism, Populism, Nativism, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

15. Who are the populists and how to respond to them: Evidence from mainstream European Parliament parties

Author:: Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The main research questions of this paper are how mainstream European Parliament parties conceptualize populism, and how they respond to the rise of populism. The paper, which has come out of the Horizon 2020 project “Demos”, is based on semi-structured interviews with top officials of non-populist parties in the European Parliament (“Europarties”), such as the ALDE, EPP, the Party of European Socialists and the European Greens. The research technique of the paper is thematic analysis, performed on the responses obtained from the aforementioned interviews. Europarty officials identified populist parties by associating them with core themes such as anti-migration, Euroscepticism, and the tendency to make undeliverable policy promises. As for the effectiveness of anti-populist strategies, the interviewees converged on the idea that the problems posed by populists cannot be ignored and that clear and concrete policy solutions are what mainstream parties need, if they are to defend themselves against the evasive political discourse of populist parties. Non-populist parties in the European Parliament may use three strategies to prevent the rise of populists, namely clashing with, marginalizing, or co-opting the populists. Non-populist parties may prefer to incorporate selected questions raised by the populists into their political agendas, and provide non-populist replies to them. Mainstream parties seem aware that while populists may not win arguments over concrete policy measures, they might win voters’ hearts.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Populism, Domestic Politics, and European Parliament
Political Geography:: Europe

16. The ghost people and populism from above: The Kais Saied case

Author:: Malek Lakhal
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Since Kais Saied dismissed Hichem Mechichi’s government in July 2021, several political concepts emerged to interpret what happened in Tunisia, either to legitimize or denounce Saied’s measures. This article examines Saied’s brand of populism and looks at how his failure to mobilize the people he claims to represent is slowly sinking Tunisia into authoritarianism.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Populism, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

17. How Populism Dies: Political Weaknesses of Personalistic Plebiscitarian Leadership

Author:: Kurt Weyland
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: Kurt Weyland examines the weaknesses of populist leadership. He argues that populist leaders are prone to errors and misdeeds, have difficulty dealing with other political forces, and face institutional and external constraints. Consequently, he concludes, they damage and suffocate democracy not as easily and frequently as recent observers have feared.
Topic:: Democracy, Leadership, Populism, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Global Focus

18. One world, many knowledges: Epistemological pluralism and African scholarship (Full Issue)

Author:: Moliehi Ramonate, Nnaemeka Ohamadike, Helen Acton, Malvern Kudakwashe Marewo, Senzo Ncube, Nene-Lomotey Kuditchar, Ross Harvey, Terence Corrigan, Kendra Connock, Jordan McLean, and Laura Rubidge
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Africa Governance Papers (TAGP)
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: This issue reflects something of the journal’s multi- and interdisciplinary ambitions, with articles employing a range of research methodologies and looking at very different topics in Lesotho, Zimbabwe and South Africa, as well as broader-ranging issues in West Africa and the continent.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Research, Populism, Maritime, Accountability, Innovation, Oversight, Pluralism, Epistemology, and Traditional Leaders
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

19. Understanding and Responding to Global Democratic Backsliding

Author:: Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Press
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Over the past two decades, democratic backsliding has become a defining trend in global politics. However, despite the extensive attention paid to the phenomenon, there is surprisingly little consensus about what is driving it. The most common explanations offered by analysts—ranging from the role of Russia and China and disruptive technologies to the rise of populism, the spread of political polarization, and democracies’ failure to deliver—fall short when tested across a wide range of cases. A more persuasive account of backsliding focuses on the central role of leader-driven antidemocratic political projects and the variety of mechanisms and motivations they entail. This paper identifies and analyzes three distinct types of backsliding efforts: grievance-fueled illiberalism, opportunistic authoritarianism, and entrenched-interest revanchism. In cases of grievance-fueled illiberalism, a political figure mobilizes a grievance, claims that the grievance is being perpetuated by the existing political system, and argues that it is necessary to dismantle democratic norms and institutions to redress the underlying wrongs. Opportunistic authoritarians, by contrast, come to power via conventional political appeals but later turn against democracy for the sake of personal political survival. In still other backsliding cases, entrenched interest groups—generally the military—that were displaced by a democratic transition use undemocratic means to reassert their claims to power. Although motivations and methods differ across backsliding efforts, a key commonality among them is their relentless focus on undermining countervailing governmental and nongovernmental institutions that are designed to keep them in check. As international democracy supporters continue to refine their strategies of responding to democratic backsliding, they must better differentiate between facilitating factors and core drivers. Such an approach will point to the need for a stronger focus on the nature of leader-driven antidemocratic projects, identifying ways to create significant disincentives for backsliding leaders, and bolstering crucial countervailing institutions. Moreover, they should deepen their differentiation of strategies to take account of the diverse motivations and methods among the three main patterns of backsliding. Only in this way will they build the needed analytic and practical capacity to meet the formidable challenge that democratic backsliding presents.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Democracy, Populism, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

20. A New Populist President: William Ruto’s victory and Kenya’s future

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Across Kenya, anticipating supporters of outgoing government candidate Raila Odinga had anxiously been listening in on radios or staring at television screens, waiting for the country’s presidential elections results. Their favourite candidate had lost the elections. At Nairobi’s national election centre, Chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), Wafula Chebukati, had announced Ruto’s narrow win but fled the building quickly after. Chaos ensued: police forces stormed the hall as Odinga supporters punched through to the stage. Chairman Chebukati left the centre under police protection, national music blaring through the speakers. The country seems to be on the verge of another wave of violent unrests.
Topic:: Populism, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

21. How do Economies in EU-CEE Cope with Labour Shortages?

Author:: Vasily Astrov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Hermine Vidovic, and Zuzana Zavarská
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: The EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe (EU-CEE) have been experiencing increasing labour shortages, which only briefly subsided in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ongoing demographic decline suggests that labour shortages will only get stronger over time. As a result, the bargaining power of labour has increased, wages have been generally rising ahead of labour productivity, and industrial action (strikes) – the level of which has remained low in recent decades – has emerged in some instances. In the face of labour and skill shortages, people have been investing in education. The share of employees with tertiary education has increased, and vocational training has gained in importance, although active labour market policies have been used only selectively. Employers have increasingly been investing in fixed assets, especially in manufacturing, and the degree of robotisation has risen strongly. Despite domestic concerns that automation would generate massive job losses, our findings suggest that capital deepening has taken place faster where labour was in higher demand. Thus, labour was not substituted with capital, but rather the complementary effect prevailed. Employment actually increased in EU-CEE over the past two decades – despite the shrinking working-age population. Employers could hire not only the formerly unemployed, but also the formerly inactive, and used the relaxed immigration policies to attract foreign workers, especially from Ukraine and the Western Balkans. Czechia, Hungary, Slovenia and Slovakia and most recently Poland have become net receivers of migrants, while in Bulgaria immigration largely compensates for the natives who go abroad. However, immigration from non-European countries as a general solution to the problem of labour shortages in the region is highly problematic in the current domestic political context. Overall, both our findings for the EU-CEE region over recent years and the experience of Western Europe during the ‘golden age’ (1950-1973) suggest that labour shortages are not in themselves an obstacle to rapid structural change and income growth. However, for such an economic model to be sustainable, more active government policies will be needed, such as greater public investment in education and training, higher minimum wages in order to encourage automation, and more extensive welfare networks in order to deal with the possible negative short-run side-effects of automation.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, Populism, Vocational Training, Investment, Labor Market, Trade Unions, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

22. Regional Deprivation and Populism - Evidence from Germany and the U.S.

Author:: Michael Bayerlein
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: A widely held view is that increasing globalisation and inequality are fostering support for populist actors. Surprisingly, when focusing on Germany and the U.S., populist voting is highest in less globalised regions with rather equal income distributions. Addressing this puzzle, I ask how the regional variance in populist voting can be explained. In my answer, I introduce the concept of spatial inequality, which describes the regional inequality within countries, and construct a measure of public goods scarcity. I argue that the spatial inequality induced feeling of being left behind is positively correlated with populist voting and that this effect is mitigated by public goods provision. Using county level data to develop spatial inequality and public good scarcity indices, I can provide empirical support for these arguments. The findings have important implications for understanding the sub-national variance in populist voting and the role of relative economic deprivation as well as public goods provision.
Topic:: Globalization, Inequality, Populism, Voting, Regional Economy, and Public Goods
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

23. Populism and COVID19: How Populist Governments (Mis)Handle the Pandemic

Author:: Michael Bayerlein, Vanessa A. Boese, Scott Gates, Katrin Kamin, and S. Mansoob Murshed
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Populist parties and actors now govern various countries around the world. Often elected by the public in times of crises and over the perceived failure of ‘the elites’, the question stands as to how populist governments actually perform once elected, especially in times of crisis. Using the pandemic shock in the form of the COVID-19 crises, our paper answers the question of how populist governments handle the pandemic. We answer this question by introducing a theoretical framework according to which populist governments (1) enact less far-reaching policy measures to counter the pandemic and (2) lower the effort of citizens to counter the pandemic, so that populist governed countries are (3) hit worse by the pandemic. We test these propositions in a sample of 42 countries with weekly data from 2020. Employing econometric models, we find empirical support for our propositions and ultimately conclude that excess mortality in populist governed countries exceeds the excess mortality of conventional countries by 10 percentage points (i.e., 100%). Our findings have important implications for the assessment of populist government performance in general, as well as counter-pandemic measures in particular, by providing evidence that opportunistic and inadequate policy responses, spreading misinformation and downplaying the pandemic are strongly related to increases in COVID-19 mortality.
Topic:: Governance, Populism, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. Local David Versus Global Goliath: Populist Parties and the Decline of Progressive Politics in Italy

Author:: Matteo Cavallaro
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the role of local spending, particularly on social welfare, and local inequality as factors in the Italian political crisis following the adoption in 2011 of more radical national austerity measures. We employ two different methods. First, we develop an original database of municipal budgets. There we show that even the lowest level of social welfare spending, that offered by Italian municipalities, though also hit by austerity, was still able to moderate this national shock. We test three operationalizations of local spending: aggregate current expenditures, aggregate current expenditures on social services, and current expenditures disaggregated by function. We show that municipal current expenditures, particularly on social spending, significantly affected the post-2011 share of votes for the progressive coalition. The results also show that social spending, especially on education, significantly moderated the combined effect of national austerity and the economic crisis on voting for populist radical right parties, while no significant results appeared for populist parties in general. Local inequality appears to significantly enhance vote shares of populist radical right parties and populist parties in general. We caution that, although significant, the effect is not strong: that local policy and economic conditions can moderate national shocks but cannot reverse them. The second analysis relies on survey data to ascertain the individual-level mechanisms behind the role of local welfare. The paper argues that local economic inputs influence voters’ position on non-economic issues. Our results, however, do not identify any significant individual-level channel of transmission, be it cultural or economic.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Inequality, Populism, and Austerity
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

25. The U.S. and Hungary: Friends in Need of a Better Way

Author:: Jon Greenwald
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: When the Wall fell in 1989, I was the U.S. Embassy political counselor in East Berlin. We immediately realized something new would replace the Cold War, but one of my few certainties was that if Moscow released its grip on the Warsaw Pact, Hungary – Eastern Europe’s freest and most economically diverse society — would be quickest to integrate smoothly into Western Europe. President George H.W. Bush’s goal of a “Europe whole and free” has come closer, but we are not there yet, and Hungary, where I held a similar position earlier, has lagged. Respected observers Freedom House and Transparency International chart a course that puts it dangerously close to, even within, the autocratic zone. Worse, it champions a nationalist populism and “illiberal democracy” directly challenging key principles to which the European Union (EU) of which it is a member and the U.S., its ally in NATO, subscribe. What should be done?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nationalism, Bilateral Relations, and Populism
Political Geography:: Europe, Hungary, North America, and United States of America

26. Mexico 2018-2021: Pandemic, Crisis, Security and Geopolitics/México 2018-2021: Pandemia, Crisis, Seguridad y Geopolítica

Author:: Raúl Benítez Manaut
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The article starts from the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic re-evaluates the concept of multidimensional security, which emerged from the 2003 meeting of the Organization of American States. It is argued that, at the level of hemispheric geopolitics, it is in the three most populous countries, under the nationalist and populist leaderships of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, where the pandemic has wreaked the most havoc. The similarities in the initial handling of the pandemic, its minus-valuation, the so-called Fourth Transformation policy and its characteristics, deployed by President López Obrador in Mexico and its effect on the militarization of the country are analyzed as well as the impact of the pandemic on the population and the great economic crisis induced. It is concluded that Mexico is experiencing a "militarization with popular support", and that the pandemic has favored the public image of the military. / El artículo se desarrolla sobre la hipótesis de que la pandemia COVID-19 revalora el concepto de seguridad multidimensional, desprendido de la reunión de la Organización de Estados Americanos de 2003. Se afirma que, a nivel de la geopolítica del hemisferio, es en los tres países más poblados, los liderazgos nacionalistas y populistas de Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro y Andrés Manuel López Obrador, donde la pandemia ha causado más estragos. Se analizan las similitudes en el manejo inicial de la pandemia, su minusvaloración, la llamada política de la Cuarta Transformación y sus características, desplegada por el presidente López Obrador en México y el efecto que tiene en la militarización del país; el impacto de la pandemia en la población y la gran crisis económica inducida. Se concluye que México vive una “militarización con respaldo popular”, y que la pandemia ha sido un elemento que ha favorecido a los militares en su imagen pública.
Topic:: Security, Populism, COVID-19, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, Mexico, and United States of America

27. Exporting the War on Terror: Islamophobia in Asia

Author:: Khaled A. Beydoun and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Join us for a fireside chat between Professor Khaled Beydoun and Professor Sahar Aziz on the latest legal and political developments in the troubling rise of Global Islamophobia in India, China, and other Asian countries.
Topic:: Human Rights, Populism, Islamophobia, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

28. Talking about Europe: exploring 70 years of news archives

Author:: Enrico Bergamini and Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This paper quantitatively explores news coverage on the subject of ‘Europe’ in three different countries and three newspapers: France (Le Monde), Italy (La Stampa) and Germany (Der Spiegel). We collected and organised large web-scraped datasets covering the period 1945 to 2019. After ensuring the quality of the archives, we identified articles referring to ‘European’ news while leaving aside national and other non-European news, based on a mix of keyword matching, large-scale natural language processing and topic identification on the full text of news articles. Once articles were classified and datasets labelled, we performed a time-series analysis, detecting salient events in European history, across France, Germany and Italy. We analysed these events in light of the evolution of European cooperation and integration since 1945. We found that the most important events in post-war European history are easily identifiable in the archives and that European issues have gathered substantially greater attention since the early 1990s.
Topic:: Governance, Public Opinion, European Union, Media, Populism, and Data
Political Geography:: Europe

29. Interest in European matters: a glass three-quarters full?

Author:: Francesco Papadia, Enrico Bergamini, Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol, and Giuseppe Porcaro
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: A disconnect between European Union integration and the level of interest of EU citizens in European matters is a potential weakness in the EU’s democratic foundations. The existence and possible size of this disconnect is a critical issue in assessing the potential for further integration of the EU and the risks to its stability. To move beyond qualitative assessments of this disconnect, we use three indicators to measure EU citizens’ interest in Europe: turnout in European Parliament elections relative to national elections, Eurobarometer surveys of interest in Europe, and the presence of European news in national newspapers, relative to all published news. We interpret our empirical results using three frameworks: Putnam’s social capital concept, the agenda-setting hypothesis and the no-demos hypothesis. All three indicators point to an increased interest in European matters, especially since the 1990s and the creation of the euro. However, this result does not settle the issue of whether the increased level of interest matches the actual state of integration of the EU’s member countries. Our results indicate the European construction maintains a technocratic character.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Media, Populism, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe

30. The Importance of International Partnerships for Israel’s Progressive Camp

Author:: Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The progressive camp in Israel has been trying for years to find its way back to the corridors of power and influence, so far unsuccessfully. Those seeking strategies and tactics for change often wonder whether the solution to Israel’s problems will emerge from without, for example driven by international pressure, or from within, by convincing and mobilizing the Israeli public. A third option to this dichotomy has emerged in recent years in the shape of combined and coordinated moves both within Israeli society and in cooperation with allies abroad.
Topic:: International Relations, Civil Society, Nationalism, Politics, Partnerships, Populism, and Progressivism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

31. How concerning is Bolsonaro’s recent political and military shakeup?

Author:: Ryan C. Berg
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: urbulent politics and a deep shakeup in Brasilia have many concerned for the stability of Jair Bolsonaro’s administration. The stampede of ministerial exits started early this week with the resignation of foreign minister Ernesto Araújo. The defense minister followed suit shortly thereafter. By day’s end, six ministers had either resigned or moved to new posts — about one-third of Bolsonaro’s cabinet. Perhaps more concerning than the political overhaul was what transpired one day after the ministerial shakeup: the leadership restructuring within Brazil’s armed forces — occurring, no less, one day before the 57th anniversary of the military coup. The heads of all three major branches — the army, the navy, and the air force — resigned en masse, purportedly over concerns for their independence, handing Bolsonaro the opportunity to handpick their successors. Brazil witnessed something analogous only once before — in 1977, under the turbulent rule of military dictator Ernesto Geisel. This has left some Brazil watchers fretting that an insecure Bolsonaro could be laying the foundations “for his own January 6.”
Topic:: Politics, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Populism, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

32. To the Viktor Go the Spoils: What Orbán Needs to Form a New Political Camp in Europe

Author:: Milan Nič and Julian Rappold
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The next months will show whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán can retain his influence in Europe even outside its largest political family. Having left the center-right European People’s Party before his party was finally pushed out, Orbán is now trying to regroup and unite the populist and Euroskeptic forces in European Parliament. What looks like a defeat could still be turned to his advantage if it leads to a lasting reshuffle of political alliances and strengthens illiberal voices.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Populism, and European Parliament
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

33. Lebanese Trade Unions and Independent Professional Associations: A Review in Light of the Popular Movement

Author:: Jamil Mouawad
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: On 17 October 2019, Lebanon saw the rise of a popular movement denouncing the widespread corruption of the country’s ruling class. Dubbed the 17 October Uprising, the unprecedented movement swept through various major Lebanese cities, including Beirut, Saïda, Tyre, Tripoli, and many others. In parallel, academics and activists debated the importance of having various organizational frameworks (partisan, union-based, or professional) that could take charge of organizing popular protests. These organizations would help frame demands in political agendas that play a crucial role in achieving the desired democratic transition.[i] This discussion – or at least parts of it – resulted from the almost total absence of any effective official union role in the popular movement, as opposed to other uprisings in the Arab region, where independent professional associations or trade unions played a pivotal role in the action. They demanded change, organized protests, and even took part in negotiations – such as in Sudan’s case).[ii] In fact, a quantitative study carried out during the 17 October Uprising showed that 95% of protestors were unaffiliated with trade unions. It also revealed that only 5% of demonstrators were affiliated with free-profession unions, such as non-labour professional associations or unions that include physicians, lawyers, nurses, engineers or the Teacher Union for example.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Populism, Unions, and Trade Unions
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

34. The Limits of Democracy

Author:: D. Eric Schansberg
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: There’s an old saying that democracy is the worst form of government, except for all of the others. Or putting it another way: the best form of government is a benevolent and knowledgeable dictator, except for the problem of finding a good and wise leader. Whatever democracy’s strengths, they are relative not absolute, and they are contingent on context—namely, the people being governed, the people governing, and the underlying institutions.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

35. Populism and the Pandemic in Southeast Asia

Author:: Paul D. Kenny
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Southeast Asian countries that are within close proximity to China were immediately affected by the spread of COVID-19 virus. Paul D. Kenny, Professor at the Australian Catholic University discusses the role of populism in public health responses to the virus and the reciprocal effect of the pandemic on the fate of populists in the region focusing on the Philippines and Indonesian cases. He argues that while the two governments took different responses to the pandemic crisis, both measures led to similar results in terms of how it affected support for the government. While President Duterte responded aggressively towards the pandemic with the issuance of Proclamation 922, President Jokowi’s response was substantially less coercive than that of Duterte’s. Professor Kenny states that both countries, in their current state, have seen similar results — support for both presidents in their respective countries remain considerably high. Nonetheless, the author adds that the continuing decline in Philippines’ economy may hamper his efforts in securing presidency.
Topic:: Government, Economy, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

36. Riding the Populist Wave – Europe’s Mainstream Right in Crisis

Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Whilst Conservative, Christian democratic and Liberal parties continue to play a crucial role in the democratic politics and governance of every Western European country, they are rarely paid the attention they deserve. This book reveals a mainstream right squeezed by the need to adapt to both 'the silent revolution' that has seen the spread of postmaterialist, liberal and cosmopolitan values and the backlash against those values - the 'silent counter-revolution' that has brought with it the rise of several far-right parties offering populist answers to many of Europe’s most contentious political problems.
Topic:: Politics, Social Movement, Populism, and Conservatism
Political Geography:: Europe

37. The Applicability of Transitional Justice in Pre-Conflict Contexts

Author:: Pablo de Greiff
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The current moment can be characterized, politically, in terms of two macro-level phenomena, a lurch towards populism (of the left and the right) on the part of many leaders (and eventually, their followers), and simultaneously, unusually large popular mobilizations in favor of progressive causes. These seemingly dilemmatic factors arguably share a common underlying cause, namely, great lack of trust in the familiar mechanisms of political representation—a lack of trust which itself has deeper roots in increasing inequality and dysfunctional forms of the politics of recognition.
Topic:: Inequality, Populism, Transitional Justice, and Pre-Conflict Contexts
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. Unconstitutional Populism: A Peril to Democracy In Sub-Saharan Africa?

Author:: Joel Moudio Motto
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The end of the Arab Spring has barely been digested, with Sub-Saharan Africa starting to embark on the same lane. The Malian news of August 2020 saw the ousting of Ibrahim Boubakar Keita following a popular mobilization led by the Imam of the Bamako Mosque. In 2014 in Burkina Faso, the popular movement under the banner of the Balai-citoyen deposed Blaise Comparoé. Both of these constitutive cases of populism indicate a rejection of representative democracy and, therefore, of the ‘will’ of the people to govern directly without institutional mediation. Still, they also express the crisis of the welfare state, that is, the inability of those in power to deliver. In populist rhetoric, history and political issues are reduced to an aggressive opposition between a majority people – homogeneous and hard-working – and an elite – minority and heterogeneous, democratically elected and appointed by governments. These elite, in populist rhetoric, are seen as an enemy of the people. Thus, the emergence of populist dynamics in Mali since June 2020 – with the eruption of the heterogeneous opposition coalition of the Movement of June 5 – Rally of Patriotic Forces of Mali (M5-RFP) – and in Burkina Faso with the civil society organizations around the Balai Citoyen in 2014, which contributed to the overthrow of democratically elected Heads of State, is, in fact, anti-constitutional populism. Therefore, in this circumstance, we seek to underscore the drivers of unconstitutional populism and to what extent it remains a threat to democratic transition.
Topic:: Democracy, Constitution, Populism, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:: Africa

39. Civil Resistance Against 21st Century Authoritarianism: Defending Human Rights in the Global South

Author:: César Rodríguez-Garavito, Ezequiel A. Monsalve F., Ektaa Deochand, Slavenska Zec, and Kerem Çiftçioğlu
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: This book — and Dejusticia’s initiative that originated it — seeks to promote answers to populist challenges to human rights. To do so, they propose a new thrust characterized by three features: reflective writing, narrative writing, and voices from the Global South. First, this book contains reflective writing. Its authors are activists who work directly within organizations in the field, who stop to think about the potential, the achievements, and the challenges of their knowledge and practice. In this sense, the book seeks to amplify the voices of human rights defenders in discussions about the future of the field, which tend to be dominated by research from academia. The texts combine the methodological and analytical strengths of academic research with the practical experience of the authors, organizations, and communities with which they work. The objective is to promote a hybrid genre that contributes to maintaining and widening the window of reflection and discussion in the field of human rights. Second, the genre proposed in this book, and in the series of which it is part, is narrative writing. In part because of the prevalence of legal language and knowledge of the world of human rights, the predominant writing in their field is that of technical reports and legal pleadings. While these genres have made notable achievements over the decades, this focus has prevented organizations and activists from effectively sharing their stories and experiences firsthand: those of the victims, the campaigns, the moral dilemmas, the injustices, the victories, and more. Opening the field of human rights to other actors, other knowledge, and other audiences means telling these stories and telling them well. To this end, the authors of these chapters are involved in the stories, relating them using techniques taken from fields such as narrative journalism. Third, the stories come from the Global South, from countries and regions that have more often been the object of study rather than the subject of knowledge, making their own decisions in the field of human rights. In this sense, these chapters attempt to respond to the challenges of a more multipolar world, to counter the organizational, economic, and epistemological asymmetries between South and North that have undermined the effectiveness and legitimacy of the global human rights movement. The authors of these studies are activists, researchers, and members of human rights organizations writing from this geographical and professional perspective to enrich the global debate on the future of the field.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Food, Authoritarianism, Populism, Political Prisoners, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:: Turkey, India, Brazil, South America, Venezuela, Mexico, Chile, and Global South

40. Argentina: A Tentative Case for Democratic Populism

Author:: Ernesto Semán
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A look back at the factors that led to Peronism—and populism's—resurgence in Argentina.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, and Protests
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

41. Right-Wing Populism and Anti-Gender Movements: The Same Coin with Different Faces

Author:: Nur Sinem Kourou
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Populism is one of the outstanding political phenomena in contemporary world politics for the last decade. This is not only about the election triumph of populist parties in several countries, but also it is about the impact of populism as a political strategy to other movements in different contexts. This paper focuses on the link between populism and gender. For this purpose, this paper aims to put one of the salient debates in the 2010s with the relational perspective to understand the new trends on rising right-wing populism and anti-gender movement at the same time. By so doing, this paper analyzes the common triggers of right-wing populism and anti-gender movements to see what makes them coherent. It is then concluded by asking why this relation is a matter while underlining the vulnerable position of women in populist politics.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Politics, Women, Populism, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

42. Backsliding of democracy in Slovenia under right-wing populist Janez Janša

Author:: Žiga Faktor
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Žiga Faktor examines the backsliding of democracy in Slovenia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid the escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, Slovenia experienced a major political shift, as Janez Janša, leader of conservative SDS party, was appointed as a new Prime minister of Slovenia, filling the political vacuum created after a resignation of a former PM Marjan Šarec earlier this year. With Janša’s strong ties to Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, his endorsement of right-wing populist rhetoric and ferocious verbal attacks on journalists and established media, many fear that Slovenia’s democratic principles are at stake, while the situation can be further exacerbated by the current state of coronavirus emergency in which the new government can entrench its power.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, Populism, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Slovenia

43. Populist Leaders and the Economy

Author:: Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25% of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new cross-country database identifying 50 populist presidents and prime ministers 1900-2018. We find that the economic cost of populism is high. After 15 years, GDP per capita is more than 10% lower compared to a plausible non-populist counterfactual. Rising economic nationalism and protectionism, unsustainable macroeconomic policies, and institutional decay under populist rule do lasting damage to the economy.
Topic:: Economics, Nationalism, Populism, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Coronavirus and the Future of Globalization

Author:: Aamer Raza
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Review of Human Rights
Institution:: Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:: Coronavirus Pandemic has generated a discussion regarding the future of globalization. This article places this new wave of pessimism regarding the future of globalization in the broader tension surrounding globalization that has existed in international relations discourse since the end of the Cold War. The article points out some of the previous challenges endured by globalization. It also points out that whereas at this point popular media and news commentary portray pessimism as the dominant feeling, the trend towards multilateralism and global cooperation is also discernable in other responses to the pandemic.
Topic:: Security, Globalization, Populism, Multilateralism, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Northern Populism: Causes and Consequences of the New Ordered Outlook

Author:: Frank Graves and Jeff Smith
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Canada has not been left untouched by a new authoritarian, or ordered, populism that has seen the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and the United Kingdom vote to leave the European Union. Based on measurements of public opinion and other means developed to assess the phenomenon, this paper finds that populism in Canada is a significant political force, replacing the traditional left-right political spectrum. Not only has northern populism created a heightened partisan polarization in Canada, but it also proved to be a strong predictor of the outcome of the 2019 federal election. The authors’ research shows that 34 per cent of Canadians maintain a populist outlook. Older, less-educated, working-class Canadians are the most likely to sympathize with ordered populism, and it is more prevalent in Alberta and Saskatchewan. It is also more closely aligned with Canadians whose political sympathies lie with conservative political parties. A number of factors have contributed to the rise of ordered populism. These include economic stagnation, the growing disparity between the wealthy and the middle and working classes, a sense that society is headed in the wrong direction and a backlash against the loss of traditional core values. Ordered populism rests on the belief in a corrupt elite, and the idea that power needs to be wrested from this elite and returned to the people. Oriented toward authoritarianism, ordered populism emphasizes obedience, hostility toward outgroups, a desire to turn back the clock to a time of greater order in society, and a search for a strongman type to lead the return to a better time. Nothing about ordered populism serves the public interest. Instead, its anti-democratic nature makes it incapable of solving the problems that spawned its rise in the first place. Ordered populism is xenophobic, mistrustful of science and journalism, and unsympathetic to equality and gender issues. Arising out of fear and anger, ordered populism is ultimately unhealthy for Western democracies and their societies and economies. Canada has yet to accord the rise of ordered populism the attention it deserves, although this paper explains why it is a critical force in this country that needs to be addressed. Currently, attitudes toward ordered populism are generally limited to sneering, derisiveness and denial, all of which do nothing to address the problem. Solving it requires understanding its roots. And if its origins lie in the collapse of the middle-class dream, then policy-makers will need to focus on creating a new economics of hope. Ordered populism is at the heart of stark divisions in Canada, and the 2019 federal election did little, if anything, to mend the rupture. Dissatisfaction with the election’s results could forecast an even worse polarization in the near future, and increase the appeal of authoritarianism, if populism is left unaddressed.
Topic:: Politics, Authoritarianism, Elections, Populism, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

46. Foreign Policy as a Contested Front of the Cultural Wars in Turkey: The Middle East and Turkey in the Era of the AKP

Author:: Dogan Gurpinar
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This article analyses the evolving discourses over Turkish foreign policy deeply entrenched within the Turkish cultural wars. It demonstrates the process and mechanisms that render Turkish foreign policy an extension of the pursuit of cultural politics and statements of identity. It also assesses how the Middle East was posited not only as a theater of diplomacy but also as a rhetorical gadget over contested Turkish identity, especially pushed by the AKP intelligentsia and policymakers and avidly defied by the secular opposition. Its emphasis is on the Arab Spring and Turkey’s immersion into the Syrian civil war, as these developments exacerbated the overlap between foreign policy making and discourses on foreign policy, particularly since the AKP sought not only diplomatic opportunities but also a regional transnational realignment as a result of the Arab Spring and the regional revolutionary milieu.
Topic:: Populism, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Islamism, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

47. The End of History Revisited

Author:: Yascha Mounk
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Until a few years ago, many argued that liberal democracy was the most just and attractive political regime. The most prominent manifestation of this optimism was Francis Fukuyama’s thesis of the “end of history.” Ironically, many of the same social scientists who dismissed Fukuyama’s work out of hand at the time were themselves committed to equally far-reaching assumptions. Now, as the tides of history are rapidly turning, the hypotheses of theory are being reversed. Indeed, some authors today predict that as the conditions that made liberal democracy possible fade away, it is likely to be supplanted by illiberal democracy, competitive authoritarianism, or outright dictatorship. Such conclusions risk being just as rash as the more optimistic ones that preceded them.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, and Illiberal Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. The Pushback Against Populism: Running on “Radical Love” in Turkey

Author:: F. Michael Wuthrich and David Ingleby
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Drawing from the 2019 mayoral elections in Turkey, this paper highlights a path that opposition parties might take to defuse polarized environments and avoid playing into the political traps set by populists in power. The particular type of moral and amplified polarization that accompanies populism’s essential “thin” ideology builds a barrier between a populist’s supporters and the opposition. Yet the CHP opposition in Turkey has recently won notable victories with its new campaign approach of “radical love,” which counteracts populism’s polarizing logic and has exposed Erdoğan’s weakness.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Populism, and Authority
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

49. With Friends Like These: The Kremlin’s Far-Right and Populist Connections in Italy and Austria

Author:: Andrew Weiss
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: A blend of new threats and opportunities is causing Moscow to take greater risks and embrace more flamboyant policies in Europe. The Kremlin’s relationships with Italy and Austria shine a spotlight on how Europe’s domestic troubles have opened many doors for Moscow.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Populism, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Italy, and Austria

50. “To protect national sovereignty from the EU?” The 2019 EP elections and populist parties in V4 countries

Author:: Vladimír Naxera, Viktor Glied, Ondřej Filipec, and Małgorzata Kaczorowska
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article analyses the 2019 European Parliament (EP) election manifestos of populist parties in V4 countries as a contribution to the contemporary discussion on political populism. The aim of the study is to analyze the election campaign programs which populist parties operating in individual V4 countries presented for EP elections in 2019, using a qualitative content analysis of the official election programs of relevant populist parties and other sources of their communication. It tries to identify topics that have been framed as a problem or risk by Central European populists and how these topics have been interpreted in their programs. The so-called “immigration crisis” and the contemporary state of the European Union are seen as the most problematic topics by a majority of the populists. On the other hand, the majority of these parties do not want some Central European version of Brexit. Their rhetorical goal is rather the reform the Union.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Populism, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Europe and Central Europe

51. Disillusionment with liberal democracy in the Visegrad countries

Author:: Lucia Husenicova
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The disillusionment with Europe and integration process is spreading through the continent. However, it appears to be stronger in countries of the Central Europe, specifically V4. Countries that have joined the democratic club at the end of 20th century show today higher potential to be governed by populistic and nationalistic parties. The article addresses the issue of perception of democracy in V4 countries through the scope of analysis of scientific publications as well as opinion polls conducted by national or international agencies. It works with several definitions of democracy and liberal democracy as a theoretical background and confronts them with how these are perceived by the people in the selected V4 countries. The opinion polls show, that people in these countries value democracy as a concept, and value the freedom that it brings, however, their everyday life and political decision are often impacted by the social and economic conditions they are living in.
Topic:: Nationalism, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: Europe and Central Europe

52. Combating Populism: A Toolkit for Liberal Democratic Actors

Author:: Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The rise of populism in Europe and the United States is well documented. Although studies may disagree about the relative importance of populism’s drivers, there is broad consensus that rising inequality, declining bonds to established traditional parties, increasing salience of identity politics, and economic grievance have played a role in fueling populism’s rise. Although populism is a symptom of democracy’s larger problems, the strategies and tactics populist parties and leaders use also provide their own, direct threat to liberal democracy. Many of the tactics that populist leaders use weaken democratic institutions and constraints on executive power. Populism is also detrimental to democracy because it exacerbates political polarization, which makes it hard for democracy to effectively function. As societies grow more polarized, people become willing to tolerate abuses of power and sacrifice democratic principles if doing so advances their side’s interests and keeps the other side out of power.1 The polarization that populism fuels, in other words, increases the risk of democratic decline. This report offers recommendations for combating populism. It translates key findings from cutting-edge academic research in the political science, political psychology, sociology, and communications disciplines into practical, evidence-based recommendations. The first set of recommendations is intended to equip political parties, politicians, and candidates to create a political context more conducive to the success of liberal democratic actors. Research shows that context matters—although many people may hold populist attitudes, these attitudes must be activated by the political context to translate into votes for populist leaders.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, Populism, Liberalism, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

53. September 2020 Issue

Author:: Daniel Milton, Muhammad Al-'Ubaydi, Michael Brian Jenkins, and Mohammed Hafez
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In the September issue, it is revealed for the first time that the Islamic State’s new leader, publicly identified by the U.S. government as Amir Muhammad Sa’id ‘Abd-al-Rahman al-Mawla, was detained by U.S. forces in Iraq in 2008 and interrogated. The Combating Terrorism Center has made available on its website three of his declassified interrogation reports, and these are analyzed in a feature article by Daniel Milton and Muhammad al-`Ubaydi, who caution that claims made by al-Mawla while in custody are very difficult to verify. Based on their assessment of the three documents and their research, they conclude that “key assumptions about al-Mawla, notably his Turkmen ethnicity and early involvement in the insurgency in Iraq, may not be accurate. Moreover, statements made by al-Mawla, while doubtless trying to minimize his own commitment to ISI [the Islamic State of Iraq], suggest that his commitment may have been borne less of zeal than of serendipity. If true, this would suggest that something certainly changed in al-Mawla, as his later reputation suggests someone who ruthlessly pursued his ideology, even to carrying out genocide against its enemies. The TIRs [tactical interrogation reports] also show that al-Mawla, who, according to the timeline that he himself provided, appears to have quickly risen in the organization’s ranks in part because of his religious training, knew much about ISI and was willing to divulge many of these details during his interrogation, potentially implicating and resulting in the death of at least one high-ranking ISI figure.” The Combating Terrorism Center convened a panel of leading scholars and analysts to further discuss the three documents. Cole Bunzel, Haroro Ingram, Gina Ligon, and Craig Whiteside provided their takeaways, including on whether the revelations may hurt al-Mawla’s standing within the group. In the other cover article, Brian Michael Jenkins considers the future role of the U.S. armed forces in counterterrorism, in a sweeping examination of the changing strategic, budgetary and threat environment. He writes: “Dividing the military into near-peer warfare and counterterrorism camps makes little sense. Future wars will require U.S. commanders to orchestrate capabilities to counter an array of conventional and unconventional modes of conflict, including terrorism.” Finally, as the global civil war between the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida intensifies, Mohammed Hafez outlines how a recent ‘documentary’ released by the Islamic State’s Yemeni branch has made clearer than ever before the areas of disagreement between the groups.
Topic:: Terrorism, Armed Forces, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Populism, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Middle East, Global Focus, and United States of America

54. Populism and the Pandemic

Author:: Catherine Fieschi, Matthew Goodwin, Paul Taggart, and Tim Bale
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: At this event in our #IsolationInsight virtual series, our speakers discussed what populist leaders are doing in the Covid-19 crisis, how they are exploiting it, and the impact this is likely to have on politics.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Brexit, Populism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

55. Panel 2: Islamophobia in Asia: Genocide and Detention

Author:: Audrey Truschke, Asher Ghertner, and Engy Abdelkader
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This panel was part of the "Global Islamophobia in an Era of Populism" conference.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, Populism, Islamophobia, and Detention
Political Geography:: China and Asia

56. Defeating Exclusion, Confronting Populism - Lessons from the Anti Apartheid Struggle

Author:: Ebrahim Rasool
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This keynote was part of the "Global Islamophobia in an Era of Populism" conference.
Topic:: Apartheid, Populism, Discrimination, Islamophobia, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

57. The US Elections 2020: What Future for Democracy, Social Movements, and Human Rights?

Author:: Deva Woodly, Tina Kempin Reuter, and Saskia Stachowitsch
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: While Joe Biden has won the US presidential elections, it is clear that the Trump presidency was not an aberration in the democratic tradition of the US, but reflects a broader shift towards authoritarian politics that is also mirrored on the global scale. This panel discussion reflects on the domestic and international effects of these shifts on social movements, marginalized populations, human rights, and global peace-making. Together with renowned experts, we will explore the future of social justice, inclusion, and participation in the US and beyond under a Biden administration that is faced with the conditions of populism, persistent white supremacy, and rising authoritarianism.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Populism, Social Justice, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

58. Climate Change and Populism: Comparing the populist parties’ climate policies in Denmark, Finland and Sweden

Author:: Antto Vihma, Gunilla Reischl, Astrid Nonbo Andersen, and Sofie Berglund
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The rise of populism has disrupted established patterns of party competition in many Western societies. Related to this development, the current debates in the US and EU illustrate how empirical science on climate change may become intensively politicized, and all ambitious climate policies challenged, in the contemporary political landscape. This may take place notwithstanding the mounting evidence on the certainty of climate change and its disastrous consequences. This FIIA report investigates populist resistance to ambitious climate change policy in the Nordic context, where countries have sought to assume global leadership on climate politics and have considerable public support for climate action. In an analysis of the positions of authoritarian populist parties in Denmark, Finland and Sweden the report sheds light on how climate change is currently politicized. It also sets out an analytical framework of various political strategies for opposing ambitious climate policies: climate science denialism, climate policy nationalism and climate policy conservativism.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Populism, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Europe, Finland, Denmark, and Sweden

59. Factsheet: Freedom and Direct Democracy (Svoboda a přímá demokracie, SPD)

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Freedom and Direct Democracy (Svoboda a přímá demokracie, or SPD) is a far-right political party in the Czech Republic that was established in 2015. Founded as an anti-elitist and anti-Muslim populist party, SPD cooperates with other far-right and anti-Muslim European political parties and is a member of the Identity and Democracy (I&D) group in the European Parliament.
Topic:: Populism, Far Right, Political Parties, European Parliament, Muslims, and Svoboda a Přímá Demokracie (SPD)
Political Geography:: Europe and Czech Republic

60. Factsheet: Freedom Party of Austria (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs, FPÖ

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) was founded in 1956 as a party of former Nazis. While the party remained a marginal opposition party during its first three decades, by the mid-1980s it became one of the first (and most successful) populist far-right parties in Europe. FPÖ has primarily targeted Muslims and Islam in its policies and rhetoric, and has maintained connections with far-right, anti-Muslim parties, movements, and figures across Europe, in the U.S., and in Israel.
Topic:: Populism, Islamophobia, Far Right, Political Parties, and Muslims
Political Geography:: Europe and Austria

61. Populism and Social Cohesion in Latin America: Two Sides of the same coin

Author:: Anuschka Álvarez von Gustedt and Susanne Gratius
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Are populism and social cohesion two sides of the same coin, or antagonistic concepts? In deeply divided Latin American societies, populism and discourses from the left have repeatedly promised inclusion and welfare programs under a strong leader who gives voice to the poor and marginalized. At first glance, however, results are ambiguous. The recent wave of left-wing populism in Latin America --from Hugo Chávez in 1999 to Andrés Manuel López Obrador in 2019 - show a mixed record of social inclusion or –in a term we will use here - social cohesion. Bolivia under Evo Morales (2006-2019), for example, improved all social indicators compared to former governments, while the severe political and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela illustrates how populism and its welfare policies may lead to potentially disastrous consequences. The paper is organized as follows: In the first section, we provide a short overview of current political and academic debates on populism and social cohesion, as well as their relationship. The objective here is to identify a minimal definition of both concepts. In the second part, we develop a series of indicators to compare the social record of five Latin American case-studies where leftist leaders with state-centric discourses promised justice and welfare for the poor. From this comparative perspective, the third part of the document explores the causes that led to the rise of leftist populism between 1999 and 2018 in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Mexico and Venezuela, as well as the social discourse and track record of populist governments. This analysis is based on indicators developed from the broad literature on social cohesion.
Topic:: Socialism/Marxism, Populism, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:: Argentina, Latin America, Venezuela, Mexico, Ecuador, and Bolivia

62. Populism: Consequences for Global Sustainable Development

Author:: Paul Marschall and Stephan Klingebiel
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Populism is a style of politics that attacks the existing normative consensus within society, making systematic use of marginalisation and bogeyman tactics. Typical marginalisation strategies target minorities within the population and adopt an anti-scientific world view. Restrictions on civil society are one of the consequences of government action dominated by populism. When it comes to mobilising voters, populists draw upon selected topics which differ according to political camp (left-wing versus right-wing populism) and national context. Nonetheless, it is possible to identify certain patterns of populist expression, such as the practice of contrasting the “people” and their supposed will with an allegedly out-of-touch political “elite”. The values of the population are largely set within the national context, while representatives of the elite are often portrayed as primarily interested in interactions outside of the nation state and thus perceived and characterised as proponents of globalisation. Populist trends can be seen in Western nations, former Eastern Bloc states and countries in the global South. Populist movements pose considerable threats to multilateral efforts aimed at tackling transnational political challenges.
Topic:: Civil Society, Politics, Populism, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Global Focus, and Global South

63. Poland’s 2019 election: Bright prospects for the populist Right

Author:: Marco Siddi and Barbara Gaweda
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Poland’s incumbent party Law and Justice seems poised to win the election thanks to its welfare policies and the weakness of the opposition. However, its attacks on the independence of the judiciary and the media could further erode the rule of law and exacerbate disputes with the EU.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, European Union, Populism, Conservatism, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

64. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Great Power Competition

Author:: Christopher C. Harmon, T. J. Linzy, Jack Vahram Kalpakian, Bruce I. Gudmundsson, Ryan Burke, Jahara "Franky" Matisek, Zsofia Budai, Kevin Johnston, Blagovest Tashev, Michael Purcell, David McLaughlin, Kashish Parpiani, Daniel De Wit, and Timothy Chess
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: In this issue of MCU Journal, the authors discuss various concepts of power and great power competition. For generations, scholars have debated changes in power and how that evolution could potentially impact the United States, its allies, and those hovering on the edge of greatness in whatever form that may take. The concept of power has taken on many meanings as the character of warfare has adapted to the time—hard power, soft power, sea power, airpower, space power, great power, combat power, etc. So how do we define such an abstract concept as power? The Department of Defense (DOD) defines combat power as “the total means of destructive and/or disruptive force which a military unit/formation can apply against the opponent at a given time.” Clearly, power must be projected; and for our purposes, that means an entity has the “ability . . . to apply all or some of its elements of national power—political, economic, informational, or military—to rapidly and effectively deploy and sustain forces in and from multiple dispersed locations to respond to crises, to contribute to deterrence, and to enhance regional stability.”
Topic:: Security, NATO, Climate Change, International Cooperation, Migration, History, Power Politics, Armed Forces, Navy, Populism, Grand Strategy, Alliance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Strategic Competition, Geography, Ottoman Empire, Information Technology, and Clash of Civilizations
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Sudan, India, Norway, Asia, France, North America, Egypt, Arctic, United States of America, and Antarctica

65. Populism and the Decline of Social Democracy

Author:: Sheri Berman and Maria Snegovaya
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Across Europe and many other parts of the world, traditional parties of the left seem to be in terminal decline. While there are many reasons for this, we argue that the most important was the left’s shift to the center on economic issues during the late twentieth century. Although this shift made some sense in the short-term, over the long-term it had deleterious, perhaps even fatal, consequences: It watered down the left’s distinctive historical profile; rendered socialist and social-democratic parties unable to take advantage of widespread discontent over the fallout from neoliberal reforms and the 2008 financial crisis; created incentives for parties to emphasize cultural and social rather than economic or class appeals; and undermined the representative nature of democracy. The shift in the left’s economic profile, in short, deserves center stage in any account of its decline. Moreover, this shift and its consequences have been crucial to the rise of a nativist, populist right and to the broader problems facing democracy today in Western and Eastern Europe, as well as other parts of the world.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, Liberalism, and Leftist Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

66. Resisting State Capture in South Africa

Author:: Rod Alence and Anne Pitcher
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This article assesses the state of democracy in South Africa, twenty-five years after Nelson Mandela and the African National Congress (ANC) came to power. The ANC won its sixth straight election in 2019, led by presidential candidate Cyril Ramaphosa. Yet the party faced a strengthened challenge from the populist left, and the 2019 contest saw the smallest ANC majority and the lowest turnout of any general election since the end of apartheid. This article argues that the most fundamental test for South Africa’s democracy has been dislodging the corrupt networks of “state capture” entrenched under former president Jacob Zuma. Civil society, opposition parties, accountability agencies, and the ANC itself succeeded in removing Zuma before the end of his term, but the task of rebuilding public trust remains.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Southern Africa

67. Modern Monetary Theory: Cautionary Tales from Latin America

Author:: Sebastian Edwards
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: dea has emerged in economic policy circles in the United States: “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT). The central tenet of this view is that it is possible to use expansive monetary policy—money creation by the central bank (i.e., the Federal Reserve)—to finance large fiscal deficits, and create a “jobs guarantee” program that will ensure full employment and good jobs for everyone. This view is related to Abba Lerner’s (1943) “functional finance” idea, and has become very popular in progressive spheres. According to MMT supporters, this policy would not result in crowding out of private investment, nor would it generate a public debt crisis or inflation outbursts.
Topic:: Debt, Monetary Policy, Populism, Banks, Economic Policy, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Latin America

68. How extreme is the European far right? Investigating overlaps in the German far-right scene on twitter

Author:: Daniela Pisoiu and Reem Ahmed
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Violent right-wing extremism is a growing threat to Western liberal democracies. At the same time, radical right-wing populist parties and figures across Europe are succeeding electorally by way of increased representation in national parliaments. These gains have been achieved against a backdrop of anti-refugee sentiment, austerity, and disillusion-ment with the European project, with populists on the left and right promising to deliver an alternative and using effective slogans and ‘people’ politics.Ordinarily, we differentiate between the extreme right and radical right: the former posing a threat to the democratic system with their fascist links and overt racism; the latter respecting the democratic system whilst offering a ‘sanitised’ version of far-right politics – namely, adopting a ‘new master frame’ that emphasises culture rather than race. Recent analyses of the far right, however, have indicated social and discur-sive overlaps between the ‘extreme’ and ‘radical’ right-wing parties and groups. The findings reported herein challenge this traditional separation within the far-right spectrum, and potentially have deeper theoretical and methodological implications for how we study the far right. The Internet adds another dimension to this threat, as far-right discourse becomes more visible on social media and messaging applications, potentially attracting more people to the cause as well as mainstreaming and legitimising particular narratives prominent in the scene.Existing literature has specifically examined the online sphere, and social media in particular, and these scholars have communicated interesting findings on how the social networks and discourses over-lap, for example identifying the co-occurrences of certain hashtags or analysing retweets and transnational cooperation.The aim of this report is to determine the overlaps apparent in the far-right scene on Twitter, and specifically, to ascertain the extent to which different groups on the scene are indeed talking about the same issues in the same way, in spite of apparent differences in tone and underlying ideologies. We utilise a mixed-methods approach: first, gaining a cursory insight into the extreme right-wing scene on Twitter across Europe; and then applying a detailed frame analysis to three selected groups in Germany to determine the implicit and explicit overlaps between them, thus complementing the quantitative findings to offer an in-depth analysis of meaning.
Topic:: Radicalization, Internet, Social Media, Populism, Ideology, Far Right, and Twitter
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

69. Trumps Dangerous Vision for Palestine

Author:: Khaled Elgindy
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:: Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:: The Bahrain workshop and its associated economic plan are little more than elaborate smokescreens for U.S. president Donald Trump’s political vision centered on the broader goals of normalizing Israeli occupation, consolidating the “Greater Israel” agenda, and effectively foreclosing Palestinian political aspirations. By working together with the government of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to redefine the conflict and do away with the traditional ground rules of the peace process, including the two-state solution, Trump is attempting to turn back the clock to the pre-1967 era when Palestinians were viewed mainly as an economic, humanitarian, and security problem rather than a political one. For Palestinians to effectively confront this unprecedented challenge, they will need to put their political house in order, including ending the debilitating political division between Fatah and Hamas, reviving institutional politics, and working to build a national consensus around a new strategy.
Topic:: International Security, International Affairs, and Populism
Political Geography:: Palestine

70. The Kushner Plan: Keeping Israeli-Palestinian Peace out of Reach

Author:: Paul R. Pillar
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:: Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:: The U.S. administration’s Israeli-Palestinian “peace plan,” under President Donald Trump, has so far yielded only an inconclusive talkfest about economic development. The underlying rationale of the plan—that economics must come before any addressing of core political issues—is fundamentally flawed for several reasons. The biggest impediments to Palestinian economic development stem from aspects of the Israeli occupation that would continue under the plan, which rejects a two-state solution and is a slightly revised and renamed version of the current arrangement of limited Palestinian autonomy under Israeli domination. The plan flows directly from the Trump administration’s policy of acquiescing in the preferences of the right-wing government of Israel. Accordingly, the political portion of the plan is indefinitely delayed and might never be announced. Keeping the full plan under wraps serves the Israeli government’s purpose of holding out the promise of—but never delivering—peace with the Palestinians, while more facts are created on the ground
Topic:: International Relations, International Affairs, Fragile States, and Populism
Political Geography:: Israel and Palestine

71. Democracy Facing Global Challenges: V-DEM ANNUAL DEMOCRACY REPORT 2019

Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:: This year’s Democracy Report shows that the trend of a third wave autocratization – the decline of democratic regime traits – continues and now affects 24 countries. When we weight levels of democracy by population size – because democracy is rule by the people and it matters how many of them are concerned – it emerges that almost one third of the world’s population live in countries undergoing autocratization. Yet democracy still prevails in a majority of countries in the world (99 countries, 55 percent). This section analyses the state of democracy in the world in 2018 and developments since 1972, with an emphasis on the last 10 years. Our analysis builds on the 2019 release of the V-Dem dataset.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Developing World, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, Ukraine, India, and Brazil

72. From De-Europeanisation to Anti-Western Populism: Turkish Foreign Policy in Flux

Author:: Alper Kaliber and Esra Kaliber
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Recent Turkish foreign policy (TFP) under the successive AKP governments has seen different populist turns. A clear distinction can be made between the thin and thick populisms of TFP, based on the status of the West. The first decade of AKP rule, when foreign policy was thinly populist, was characterised by steady de-Europeanisation, increasing engagement with regional issues and a decentring of Turkey’s Western orientation. The turn toward thick populism has been characterised by anti-Westernist discourses in which the West is resituated as the ‘other’ of Turkish political identity.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Populism, and Anti-Westernism
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

73. Contested Issues Surrounding Populism in Public and Academic Debates

Author:: Bertjan Verbeek and Andrej Zaslove
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Populism seems to be a well-established notion in public and academic debate alike. Nevertheless, several issues surrounding populism are still contested and thus merit closer attention. These contested issues encompass the extent to which populism is novel and ubiquitous; the scope of the phenomenon; the merits of the various definitions of populism; its political colour(s); the potential danger it poses to democracy; its appropriateness to govern; as well as populism’s impact beyond national borders.
Topic:: Government, Democracy, Populism, Public Policy, Radical Right, and Leftist Politics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

74. Prison populism in Latin America

Author:: Carlos Vilalta and Gustavo Fondevila
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The objective of this study is to offer a data-driven review of the growth, trends, and the principle reasons behind the rapid expansion of the prison population in the region during the past two decades. A key factor appears to be the rise of prison populism. We do not provide an argument for the recent decrease in the growth rate, it is too early to determine whether the recent slow-down in prison population growth is due to a regime shift in the time series, or the effect of random variation. Still, ceteris paribus, we provide a projection of the prison population rate for the region. This Strategic Note fills a gap in the literature. Our particular contribution consists of the compilation on quantitative data of the region’s prison population, with the purpose of providing a broad but novel overview of the rapid growth and challenges to a wide audience of researchers and practitioners worldwide.
Topic:: Prisons/Penal Systems, Population, and Populism
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, Venezuela, and Mexico

75. Measuring the Rise of Economic Nationalism

Author:: Monica de Bolle and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Since the mid-2000s, the platforms of major political parties in both advanced and emerging-market economies have increasingly emphasized policies that stress national sovereignty, reject multilateralism, and seek to advance national interests through measures that come at the expense of foreign interests. This paper documents this shift by evaluating the policy platforms of the largest political parties (about 55 in total) in the Group of Twenty (G-20) countries with regard to trade policy, foreign direct investment (FDI), immigration, and multilateral organizations. Preference shifts with respect to industrial policy, competition policy, and macroeconomic populism are also examined. In advanced economies, the biggest shifts were toward restrictions on immigration and trade and toward macroeconomic populism. In emerging-market economies, the largest preference shifts were toward industrial policies favoring specific sectors, macroeconomic populism, and industrial concentration. Trade protectionism and skepticism toward multilateral organizations and agreements have increased in both advanced and emerging-market economies. As of 2018, economic policy preferences in emerging-market economies were more nationalist and less liberal than in advanced countries, but the gap has narrowed. Right-wing parties tend to be more nationalist than left-wing parties in the areas of immigration restrictions, FDI restrictions, and antimultilateralism, but there is no significant difference with respect to trade protectionism.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Nationalism, Politics, Populism, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

76. Russia’s Promotion of Illiberal Populism: Tools, Tactics, Networks

Author:: Laura Rosenberger and Thomas Morley
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Understanding the rise of illiberal populism has been a focus of recent debate on both sides of the Atlantic. This “illiberal international” has many faces, often seemingly at odds: Donald Trump and Jill Stein in the United States, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon in France, la Lega and the Five Star Movement in Italy. A combination of internal and external factors drive these movements, including domestic forces such as income inequality and a sense of government irresponsiveness, and transnational trends like migration and technological change. At the same time, Russia and its leadership have sought to exploit and strengthen these movements as a means to weaken the West and gain relative power – by deepening societal polarization, amplifying divisive issues on which these movements feed, providing financial support, and connecting movements across borders. This paper does not analyze the internal drivers of these movements or transnational trends, but stipulates that they are important. It also does not examine the relative impact of internal versus external factors. Rather, this paper focuses on the role of the Russian government and its proxies in nurturing and shaping these movements as a means of destabilizing the West and advancing Russian foreign policy goals. This paper discusses three characteristics of the Russian government’s support for illiberal populist forces, and draws on examples of Russia’s promotion of such movements to illustrate patterns and pathways of influence. First, the Russian government uses a range of largely asymmetric tools to support a diverse set of actors across the transatlantic space, using similar tools in different combinations in multiple countries. Second, Russia uses cross-border networks as vectors of influence across the transatlantic space, often facilitated by Russian oligarchs or other figures close to the regime,1 who serve as transnational connectors of populist movements. Finally, while interactions between the Russian government, its proxies, and illiberal populists often use shared social, cultural, or religious values, for Russia these pathways are utilitarian means not ideological ends, and are aimed at forces on both sides of the ideological spectrum that further Russia’s agenda of upending the transatlantic status quo. These movements’ alignment with pro-Russian policies — anti-establishment, anti-European, anti-American agendas – rather than a particular political ideology, drive Russia’s support. This analysis has several implications for policy makers, including the need to break down stovepipes, work across sectors to develop a whole of society approach, and form transnational strategies to combat Russian government attempts to undermine democratic stability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Political stability, and Populism
Political Geography:: Russia

77. To Stay or to Go? How European Right-wing Populist Parties are Adjusting to the Post-Brexit Era Public Opinion

Author:: David Fernández Marcos
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Since the 1990s a great deal of literature has been written predicting the behaviour of right-wing populists explaining their policies and ideology. Until Brexit, there had been no such clear victory for right-wing populist policies. Drawing from the current state of the art, data from the national and European electoral party manifestos as well as Eurobarometer survey data from France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, this dissertation employs Strom’s rational choice-based party behaviour model to explore how the internal structure and each country’s political and institutional environments have mediated the right-wing populist parties’ reaction to the upswing of positive opinions about the European Union among European public opinion since Brexit. They have done so in two directions: by either continuing their promise to leave the EU or by dropping the promise and instead advocating institutional reform, in those cases where the parties seek to govern.
Topic:: Public Opinion, European Union, Brexit, Populism, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Europe

78. The Refugee Crisis, Brexit and the Rise of Populism: Major Obstacles to the European Integration Process

Author:: Valeri Modebadze
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This article describes the main challenges that the European Union is facing over the last years. It also analyzes the European Integration process and the emergence of the European Union. European integration process began after the Second World War. European politicians realized that ‘the old continent’, which was destroyed and razed to the ground, needed unification in order to play a more important role in the bipolar international system. The European integration was a step by step process, which reached its culmination after signing the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 when the European Union was formally established. The European Union created a very favorable ground for free movement of people, goods, services, and capital within the internal market. Despite these positive developments, new threats emerged over the last years that can put an end to the European integration process. From these threats and challenges, particular attention is dedicated to Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit), the rise of radicalism and populist parties, the migration crisis, and a heightened terrorism threat.
Topic:: Migration, Violent Extremism, Brexit, Populism, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

79. Authority and Populism in the Age of Trump

Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: With rightwing populist and nationalist politics gaining strength around the world, what is the best way to understand and counter them? What lessons can countries facing rising far-right movements learn from each other?
Topic:: Nationalism, Leadership, Populism, Radical Right, and Authority
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

80. An International Look at the Women’s Movement: The Gender Agenda of the Global South

Author:: Berfu Şeker
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: We are at a time when the global politics of women’s rights, gender and feminism are intersecting at the regional and national level, forming around similar dynamics and practices. Against the gains made by women and LGBTI+ groups towards changing gender politics until the 2000s, we are seeing that new populist trends have been gaining power since 2000s.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Inequality, Populism, Feminism, and LGBT+
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

81. The European Citizens' Initiative, A Sufficient Tool to Bring Europe Closer to Its Citizens

Author:: Basile Ridard
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: At a time of rising populism in Europe and a global crisis of democratic representation, the European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI) aims to provide a concrete response to those denouncing the lack of democratic legitimacy of the EU institutions. The new regulation, proposed by the Commission last September and still under discussion by both the Parliament and the Council, facilitates the use of ECI. However, it remains insufficient for citizens willing to engage regularly in the EU law-making process. This Egmont Paper assesses the overall impact of the ECI on European policies and compares it to the complementary tools of participatory democracy such as the recently established Citizens’ consultations.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Democracy, Europe Union, and Populism
Political Geography:: Europe

82. Rising to the Populist Challenge: A new Playbook for Human Rights Actors

Author:: César Rodríguez and Krizna Gómez
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: This book collects and analyzes a repertoire of responses by human rights organizations to the crackdown against civil society in the populist context. Written by scholars and advocates in challenging political settings from around the world, this book offers ideas and inspiration to their peers in the human rights community who are grappling with and resisting the erosion of democracy and rights. This collection takes two steps towards clearing the path for this civil society transformation. First, it clarifies the specific challenges to human rights raised by contemporary populist regimes and movements. What is the populist playbook against human rights? Second, it contributes to documenting and learning from a wealth of initiatives by human rights actors. What innovations are human rights actors introducing into their strategies and narratives to counter those of populist regimes? In short, what is the human rights playbook against populism?
Topic:: Human Rights, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: Latin America and Global Focus

83. The Populist Challenge to Liberal Democracy

Author:: William A. Galston
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Across the West, economic dislocation and demographic change have triggered a demand for strong leaders. This surge of populism is more than an emotional backlash; it encourages a political structure that threatens liberal democracy. While populism accepts principles of popular sovereignty and majoritarianism, it is skeptical about constitutionalism and liberal protections for individuals. Moreover, populists’ definition of “the people” as homogeneous cannot serve as the basis for a modern democracy, which stands or falls with the protection of pluralism. Although this resurgent tribalism may draw strength from the incompleteness of life in liberal society, the liberal-democratic system uniquely harbors the power of self-correction, the essential basis for needed reforms.
Topic:: Corruption, Democracy, Populism, and Liberal Order
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

84. Insidious Threats to Academic Freedom in the US and Abroad

Author:: Michael Ignatieff and Craig Calhoun
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Centerpiece
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: n the division of labor that Craig Calhoun and I agreed upon, he's going to deal with the insidious threats, the subtler ones, the ones that are perhaps characteristic of American or North Atlantic academic life, and I'm going to deal with the straight on, in your face, “boom boom” threats that have arisen where I am in Hungary. I'm going to tell you a little narrative about what's happened to Central European University (CEU), and then I'd like to talk about a characterization of these kinds of societies. The relationship between a place like Hungary and a place like here is complex. There is a collusive relationship, a disturbingly collusive relationship between liberal democratic societies, which enjoy full academic freedom, and societies which do not. And it's that collusive relationship that I think we need to think about. That will be my headline. Most of you will know that CEU is a graduate institution offering masters and PhDs, accredited in New York state and by Middle States. We offer degrees that are accredited also by the Hungarian administration. So we're a kind of European-American institution. We're one of almost thirty institutions of higher learning around the world that have no domestic US campus. But note, this is the geostrategic implication: these institutions are now implanted all over the world in authoritarian societies where their capacity to operate freely is very much in question. So my story about Hungary is not just a story about Hungary. It's potentially a story about Egypt, about Russia, about Abu Dhabi—about all the places where American norms of academic freedom are suddenly under challenge because of the emergence of these kinds of regimes.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Populism, Academia, and Atlantic World
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Hungary, North America, and Central Europe

85. Global and Local Challenges in Argentina and Brazil

Author:: Guillermo Calvo
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The last presidential elections in Argentina (2015) and in Brazil (2018), represent a change from populism towards more orthodox economic policies in two important countries in the region. This shift is not only economic but also reflects other fundamental changes in the electorate, in particular the growing dissatisfaction of the population with issues such as weak security and growing corruption in political institutions. In both countries, there are significant fiscal problems and adjustment is needed. But in modern democracies, the success or failure of economic policy is closely tied to political developments. Notably, both countries face their macroeconomic challenges under a parliamentary minority; a situation that is common to many countries in the region at present. Economies highly integrated into the international capital markets, with macroeconomic imbalances inherited from populist governments, face a particularly difficult challenge. On the one hand, the required fiscal tightening entails the execution of policies that may result in greater social unrest, thus encouraging a gradual approach. On the other hand, a gradual approach requires a greater funding stream of financial funds thus exposing the economy to higher financial risk. The dilemma of choosing between a shock adjustment and a gradual approach has been central to understanding what has happened in Argentina and is essential to assessing the options available to the next government in Brazil. The dilemma about the optimal speed of fiscal adjustment has been faced by other countries in the region in the past. In some successful cases of gradualism, the presence of a clear commitment mechanism over the fiscal path, including the implementation of goals agreed with the IMF, has played a decisive role in mitigating the credibility gap typically linked to gradual approaches. One question that the Committee puts forward throughout this statement is to what extent does Argentina's experience entail relevant lessons for Brazil? In order to thoroughly understand these possible lessons and the challenges that both countries face, it is important to consider the similarities and differences between Argentina and Brazil. There is no doubt that both countries are dealing with formidable fiscal challenges. In both countries, there is a primary fiscal deficit and public debt levels are high in relation to GDP. Also, both economies face low or negative growth rates, partly because of cyclical or temporary factors and partly because of low productivity levels due to complex regulatory regimes and tax systems that hinder investment. On the other hand, the realities of Argentina and Brazil are very different in some important aspects. Brazil has not had to cope with a currency crisis and external financing problems such as those of Argentina; the latter has had to reduce its hefty deficit in the current account of the balance of payments. In contrast, Brazil’s external public debt and external financing needs of the public sector are low. However, while the private sector’s foreign indebtedness is quite moderate in Argentina, it is relatively high in the case of Brazil. As regards to monetary policy and inflation, the situation in both countries is also very different. Whereas the inflation rate in Argentina has suffered a substantial increase throughout this year in the context of low credibility in its monetary policy, Brazil has kept a low and stable inflation rate and has significantly improved its central bank’s credibility. These similarities and differences require a differentiated discussion of each country, even if some challenges facing Argentina and Brazil are shared, and whether their experiences provide lessons for each other. The international context plays a fundamental role for both economies in determining the results of economic policy. Before embarking on a more detailed analysis of the challenges facing Argentina and Brazil during the next year, we will analyze how the international context has recently changed, in the next section.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Populism, and Local
Political Geography:: Brazil, Argentina, and South America

86. EU's Refugee Crisis: From Supra-Nationalism to Nationalism?

Author:: Dogachan Dagi
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The refugee crisis of 2015-2016 revealed the strength of the idea of “national sovereignty” within the Member States of the European Union indicating that not only supra-nationalism is still nascent thinking in the Union but also inter-govermentalism readily transforms into a “self-help” mechanism to opt-out from “common European” destiny in times of crisis. As such it seems that the recent refugee crisis has awakened nationalistic populism in Europe with a disintegrative impact on the Union. Despite the controversial EU-Turkey joint action plan of March 2016 that effectively served to reduce the number of refugees crossing into the EU area the intergovernmental and supranational division on how to reconcile national concerns with that of the EU rules and regulations as well as humanitarian responsibility still persist.
Topic:: Nationalism, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Refugee Crisis, and Populism
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

87. Europe’s Populist Challenge

Author:: Matt Browne, Dalibor Rohac, and Carolyn Kenney
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Authoritarian populism is not new to Europe. Numerous political parties on the far right and the far left have long called for a radical overhaul of Europe’s political and economic institutions. What is new is that, in the past decade, such parties have moved from the margins of Europe’s political landscape to its core. As the historic memories of World War II and Soviet communism fade, so has the social stigma previously associated with advocating for policy agendas that destroy democratic institutions and human lives. What is more, the parties themselves have undergone dramatic changes and spurred a wave of political innovation. New populist movements have emerged, defying old ideological categories. Old populist groups have changed too, sometimes dramatically. Instead of stale ideological proselytizing, populists now offer excitement and rebellion—and use cutting-edge social media strategies to do so. Although populism and authoritarianism are conceptually separate, they often go together in practice. After the global economic downturn of 2008, the vote share of authoritarian populist parties in Europe increased dramatically. Elections have ushered such parties into government—most notably in Hungary and Poland—providing the first real-world indications of how modern authoritarian populists behave when in power. The record is not encouraging. In each country affected, checks and balances and the judiciary have been weakened, and governments have sought to silence opposition voices in media and civil society. The changing political landscape has also prompted a response from mainstream politicians. Some have tried to use elements of populist political messaging to capture the segments of the electorate disenchanted with conventional center-left and center-right politics. Others have tried to imitate the appeal of populists by adopting their substantive promises on immigration, the economy, and national sovereignty. This report examines the drivers of populist support, focusing first on the current state of play before endeavoring to understand the reasons for populism’s resurgence in Europe. It then offers a series of policy recommendations that policymakers can use to fight back. Although the jury is still out on which political strategies work in which contexts, reconnecting European voters with mainstream politics is a critical part of addressing the challenge that authoritarian populism poses. The report was inspired by conversations with academics, strategists, and policymakers, which were held in early 2018 at workshops convened jointly by the Center for American Progress (CAP) and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Florence and Prague under the auspices of our common project, “Defending Democracy and Underwriting the Transatlantic Partnership.”
Topic:: Social Movement, Democracy, Populism, and Protests
Political Geography:: Europe

88. The Economic and Social Roots of Populist Rebellion: Support for Donald Trump in 2016

Author:: Thomas Ferguson, Benjamin I. Page, Jacob Rothschild, Arturo Chang, and Jie Chen
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper critically analyzes voting patterns in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Using survey data from the American National Election Survey and aggregate data on Congressional districts, it assesses the roles that economic and social factors played in Donald J. Trump’s “Populist” candidacy. It shows the hollowness of claims that economic issues played little or no role in the campaign and that social factors such as race or gender suffice to explain the outcome. While agreeing that racial resentment and sexism were important influences, the paper shows how various economic considerations helped Trump win the Republican primary and then led significant blocs of voters to shift from supporting Democrats or abstaining in 2012 to vote for him. It also presents striking evidence of the importance of political money and Senators’ “reverse coattails” in the dramatic final result.
Topic:: Political Economy, Populism, Economic Policy, Free Trade, Money, Voting, Donald Trump, Political Parties, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

89. When Populism Meets Nationalism

Author:: Alberto Martinelli
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In Europe and beyond, today populism is alive and kicking. Over the past few years, anti-establishment parties have made substantial strides. Some of them have reached the levers of governments, while others are consolidating their gains. Being a "thin" ideology, populism is being contaminated by nationalism. This book offers a number of case studies on those countries whose governments have been labelled "national-populist". Ranging from Italy to the United States, from the Visegrad countries to Turkey, Russia, and Latin America, this Report aims to single out what all these cases have in common, but also what sets them apart from each other.
Topic:: Nationalism, Populism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

90. Things Fall Apart: Populism and Foreign Policy

Author:: Frank Lavin
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump confounds political observers. For many, he is defined by his missteps and flamboyance. His foreign policy statements contain sufficient imprecision—if not outright contradictions—to allow observers to conclude a lack of care in dealing with the issues. Is China’s presence in the South China Sea acceptable or not? Is NATO useful or not? Should the United States use force in Syria for humanitarian or geo-political goals? This ambiguity gives rise to further questions regarding his foreign policy architecture: what are the guiding principles?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Geopolitics, and Populism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Syria, North America, South China, and United States of America

91. Sovereignist Populism - a Reaction to the Democratic De�icit of the European Union

Author:: Janko Bekić
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: Populism has been de�ined by Cas Mudde as “a thin-centred ideology that considers society to be ultimately separated into two homogenous and antagonistic groups, ʻthe pure peopleʼ and ʻthe corrupt eliteʼ, and which argues that politics should be an expression of the volonté general (general will) of the people”. In the past, populist movements and parties in Europe campaigned against national political elites who, as the narrative goes, lost touch with the common people and pursued their own particular agendas in national capitals. Since the advent of the European Union in 1993 (entry into force of the Maastricht Treaty) their focus has moved to an adversary even more disconnected and physically distant from the national electorates – the unelected, bureaucratic and supranational elite in Brussels. Nevertheless, national heads of state or government remain a secondary target, as they are seen either as powerless (due to the transfer of competences to EU institutions) or in collusion with the Brussels’ “junta”. This new type of populism can be described as sovereignist, because of its advocacy of downgrading the EU back to a confederation of states, or – more radically – of dissolving it altogether. This new type of populism can be described as sovereignist, because of its advocacy of downgrading the EU back to a confederation of states, or – more radically – of dissolving it altogether. The populist objection to the democratic de�icit of the EU is not without substance. Major decisions, such as the introduction of harsh austerity measures in Greece, or the attempted imposition of obligatory migrant quotas on Hungary, have been made in the Quartier européen against the explicit wishes of the affected demoi, made clear in the Greek bailout referendum of July 2015 and the Hungarian migrant quota referendum of October 2016. Therefore, these decisions can be described as legal, according to relevant EU treaties, but not fully legitimate, as they don’t enjoy the support of the concerned populations. Even the renowned German sociologist and philosopher Jürgen Habermas, certainly no admirer of populist parties, acknowledged in The Crisis of the European Union: A Response (2012) that the EU “has been sustained and monopolised only by political elites” and that it is showing signs of moving in the direction of “a kind of post-democratic rule”. While some argue that the creeping transition towards post-democracy is a deliberate choice by European political elites, others view it as a regrettable but unavoidable side effect of the current status of the EU which is a sui generis formation, neither a confederation of states, nor a federal state.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, and Populism
Political Geography:: Europe

92. Trumpism and International Relations: At the Threshold of Deideologization

Author:: E. Solovyev
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: eLection oF DonALD truMp and his active efforts to undermine the foreign and domestic policy course inherited from the obama admin- istration sent waves of concern across the Western analytical community. his inaugural address had a bombshell effect on Western mainstream media. his close to perfect populist speech (calling “to drain the Washington swamp” and “give power back to the people”) was national- ist at the brink of “isolationism.”1 he looked like a perfect right-wing populist and no exception to the common rule: clearly defined problems and real and urgent questions never supplied with clear (or rational) answers.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Populism, Ideology, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

93. The 2016 U.S. Election: The Populist Moment

Author:: William A. Galston
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: In the United States and abroad, a populist surge threatens the assumptions and achievements of politicians and policy makers from mainstream parties. In the United States, populist discontents have been fueled by an array of factors, including the Great Recession that resulted from the 2008 financial crisis; the failure of past reforms to stem the tide of illegal immigration over the country’s southern border; the economic consequences of sweeping technological change; and the rise of an education-based meritocracy that has left less-educated citizens in outlying towns and rural areas feeling denigrated and devalued. Today, some parties on both the left and right are calling into question the norms and institutions of liberal democracy itself. Growing insecurity has triggered a demand for strong leaders, and forms of authoritarianism that many believed had been left behind for good a quarter-century ago are threatening to resurface. These developments illuminate the historical case for liberal democracy, as well as the sources of its current weakness.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Elections, Populism, and Liberal Order
Political Geography:: United States and North America

94. Summit on the Future of Europe 2017 Europe and Transatlantic Relations in the Era of Populism

Author:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Summit on the Future of Europe is an initiative of Harvard University’s Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies (CES). Launched in 2014, this annual conference aims to convene eminent scholars and public leaders at Harvard in order to debate critical challenges facing Europe. The 2017 Summit took place at Harvard on November 6 and focused on “Europe and Transatlantic Relations in the Era of Populism.” It was a partnership of CES, the diaNEOsis Research and Policy Institute and the WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
Topic:: Nationalism, Regional Cooperation, Populism, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and Atlantic Ocean

95. Transcript: The Warren and Anita Manshel Lecture in American Foreign Policy by Robert O. Keohane

Author:: Robert O. Keohane
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Centerpiece
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: n this talk, I will revisit a question that Joe has asked in his work over the last twenty-five years: “Is the American century over?” Joe has given this question a consistently negative answer, and has recently, in a book with this title, extended his expected time frame for the American century to 2041. Before reaching this conclusion, Joe directly addressed the question that seems central to me: Will its internal cultural and political divisions decisively weaken the United States in world politics? He pointed out that “culture wars could adversely affect American power if citizens become so distracted or divided by domestic battles over social and cultural issues that the United States loses the capacity to act collectively in foreign policy” (ACO: 73). But in his answer he claimed that “past culture battles over slavery, prohibition, McCarthyism, and civil rights were more serious than any of today’s issues” (ibid). He did not expect disruption of American power as a result of internal social divisions.
Topic:: Nationalism, Hegemony, Geopolitics, and Populism
Political Geography:: United States and North America

96. Turnout and Voter Insecurity in the French Elections

Author:: Adrien Abecassis
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: One of the key questions in the current debate on the causes of the rise of populism is whether the economic harshness and distrust in traditional political parties increase or decrease election turnout. This question was debated in a recent roundtable discussion, organized by the Weatherhead Research Cluster on Global Populism, on the economic and cultural causes of populism’s prevalence. Would voters struck by economic shocks—those whose futures seemed to be vulnerable, and who have lost their sense of security about their own lives and that of their children’s—tend to vote to prevent this from happening? Or would their suffering cause them to retreat and withdraw from political elections? And indeed, the answer is not obvious: Luigi Guiso et al. found that economic security shocks significantly increased the likelihood of abstention, while David Autor et al. showed that economic shocks due to foreign trade competition raised—not lowered—voter turnout.
Topic:: Elections, Populism, Political Parties, and Election Interference
Political Geography:: Global Focus

97. Donald Trump’s Nuclear Strategy: First Outlines

Author:: Vladimir Kozin
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP has inherited large strategic and tactical nuclear arsenals from his predecessor, Barack Obama, and a strat- egy of “unconditional offensive nuclear deterrence,” which allows for the possibility of a preemptive nuclear strike against practically any country that is not an ally, friend or partner of the United States.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons and Populism
Political Geography:: America

98. A World in Transition: the Rise of Populism and the Fall of Multilateralism? (Full Issue)

Author:: Emily E. Fox, Richard Aidoo, Marten Brienen, Carlos de la Torre, Alexander B. Makulilo, and Joel Martinez
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:: For the Journal’s 19th issue, we explore modern populism across the world. Richard Aidoo looks at the landscape of anti-Chinese populism in the context of Africa’s resource scramble, while Alexander B. Makulilo takes an in depth look at the siren song of populism in Tanzania. Marten Brienen and Carlos de la Torre hone in on populism in Latin America, exploring its early 21st Century evolution and its relationship with democracy respectively. Additionally, the Journal is proud to publish an interview with Ron Boquier and Raul Castillo, both of whom are active supporters of human rights in Venezuela, a county was a harbinger of recent global populist sentiment. Outgoing editor Joel Martinez speaks with Boquier and Castillo on the roles of the United Nations and United States in helping to advance democratic reform in the country.
Topic:: International Relations, Human Rights, Politics, Natural Resources, Law, Democracy, Populism, Multilateralism, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, Latin America, and Tanzania

99. Go Global, Meet the Locals: Pragmatism, Plunder, and AntiChinese Populism in Africa

Author:: Richard Aidoo
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:: From Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward to Deng Xiaoping’s Opening Up, through Jiang Zemin’s Going Out (also known as the Going Global strategy) to Xi Jinping’s recent Chinese Dream, China has pursued diverse diplomatic engagements with African countries within these broad development visions. These engagements have evolved along with Africa’s changing political and economic circumstances, as well as China’s resurgence as a global economic power. Most significantly, in large parts of the developing world (including Africa), China has shifted away from its support for the struggle for ideological identity to assume geopolitical and geo-economic weight, as anti-imperialism rhetoric and support have given way to its business-is-business mantra, and noninterference diplomacy. In other words, from the late 1970s, Africa encountered Beijing’s gradual shift away from an ideological proselytizer to a global economic adventurer. After the Cold War, Chinese influence in Africa has grown significantly as it has traded, invested, and constructed its way to the most relevant economic partner to African economies. Chinese capital, aid, expertise, and diplomacy have brought increasing numbers of Chinese to the continent to serve as expatriate workers as they heed the call to “go out” and enhance the national ambitions and seek personal fortunes. In the past two decades, it has been remarkably evident that the relationship between China and Africa has entered into a different phase. Contrary to the rather simplistic and unilinear account of China’s scramble of the African continent, current engagements are rather complex with China as a pragmatic economic actor with both complementary and competitive impacts that draw different reactions from African populations – from the often reported embrace to intense local anger in certain parts. Along with a political independent and largely democratically governed Africa, China is also currently engaging mostly empowered African populations who will readily assert and preserve their sovereignties, political rights and civil liberties through public protests, pronouncements and political competitions like elections, and referendums. So, in spite of Beijing’s touted African embrace as the partner-in-development option for African states, some growing popular resentment for “most things Chinese” in some parts of Africa is confronting China as it deals with a continent in transition. Alternatively, though the effectiveness of popular African reactions towards the Chinese in African countries may be shaped by factors such as regime type, and economic status of the state in question,3 sustainability and longterm impacts of these people centered movements depend on more than any visceral efforts. Consequently, how will Beijing’s motives and strategies in Africa be impacted by popular reactions as African populations look to the past and present?
Topic:: Development, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Populism
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

100. Latin American Resource Populism in the Early 21st Century

Author:: Marten Brienen
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:: Latin America seems out of step with the world, as it appears to be currently emerging from a cycle of populist rule commonly referred to as the Pink Tide, which began with the inauguration of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez in 1999. While observers have been declaring the end of the Pink Tide for a few years now, the reality is that the movement is not quite dead yet: Nicolás Maduro remains in power, as does Evo Morales – who appears not quite ready to throw in the towel. While Rafael Correa has stepped aside in perfectly democratic fashion, his successor, Lenín Moreno, is very much a believer in what has been termed “twenty-first century socialism.” In this article, I will focus on the more outspoken of the members of the Pink Tide, and suggest that within the resurgence of the left in Latin America there is a distinct subset of populists who have married resource nationalism to populism to produce something altogether separate from the rest of the members of the Pink Tide.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Natural Resources, and Populism
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS