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62. HOW DO GOVERNMENTS DECIDE WHICH GROUPS ARE “TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS”?
- Author:
- Brian J. Phillips and Mirna El Masri
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- US Senator Ted Cruz recently called for Yemen’s Houthis to be added to the Foreign Terrorist Organization list—again. The Iran-backed Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, were designated as terrorists by the Trump administration on January 19, 2021, criminalizing support of the group, but the designation was removed by the Biden administration the following month. Around the world, national terrorist group lists vary considerably, and change over time. Last fall, the UK government announced it would add Hamas to its terrorist list. Other countries, such as the United States, have long designated Hamas a terrorist group, while others, like Russia, have not. Why do some organizations end up on countries’ terrorist group lists? Why are some terrorist lists different than others?
- Topic:
- Government, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Conflict, and Islamism
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
63. Does an effective government lower COVID19’s health impact? Evidence from Viet Nam
- Author:
- Duc Anh Dang and Ngoc Anh Tran
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Government effectiveness has played an important role in tackling the crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This paper discusses the different aspects of government effectiveness in explaining the variation in the COVID-19 confirmed cases and death levels in Viet Nam. We use the Provincial Governance and Public Administration Performance Index in 2019 to measure the quality of government effectiveness at the local level. The findings show the importance of health system capacity in the battle against COVID-19. We find that increased government transparency is significantly associated with lower confirmed rates. For the impact of the level of participation, we find that provinces that have higher quality of village head elections or where people have more opportunities to participate tend to have lower infected cases, especially where people participate in the formal and informal association and have voted in the National Assembly election.
- Topic:
- Government, Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Vietnam and Southeast Asia
64. Does the adoption of peer-to-government mobile payments improve tax revenue mobilization in developing countries?
- Author:
- Abdoul-Akim Wandaogo, Fayçal Sawadogo, and Jesse Lastunen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Developing countries need to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance development. Revenue mobilization is often hampered by limited tax compliance, weak institutions, and technical problems with tax collection. One solution to these challenges is person-to-government (P2G) mobile phone payments, adopted in a number of developing countries since the early 2000s. This study assesses the causal effect of P2G adoption on tax revenue using propensity score matching. According to the matching estimates, countries that adopt P2G services experience a 1.2–1.3 percentage point boost in direct tax revenue as a share of GDP. P2G adoption increases revenue from both corporate and personal income taxes, with larger effects on the latter. The results remain robust to matching quality tests and alternative estimation methods, including function control, two-stage least squares, and system generalized method of moments. The average treatment effects are largest among lower-middle-income countries and countries characterized by limited tax compliance and corruption control, and by low levels of urbanization and domestic credit to the private sector. The findings suggest that developing countries, particularly those with poor institutions and low levels of financial inclusion, should promote the adoption and use of mobile money services for tax transactions.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Finance, Economy, and Tax Systems
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
65. Afghanistan: Where US-Iranian interests may yet intersect
- Author:
- Borzou Daragahi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A new issue brief, Afghanistan: Where US-Iranian Interests May Yet Intersect, authored by Atlantic Council senior fellow Borzou Daragahi delves into the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and how the swift collapse of the US-backed government in Kabul last summer not only shocked the United States and its allies in the 20-year struggle in that country, but also Afghanistan’s influential neighbor, Iran. As refugees continue to stream into Iran, the government in Tehran has still not recognized the Taliban regime and remains worried about a further deterioration in Afghanistan’s economy and social cohesion, as well as the growing presence of Sunni Jihadi militants. As Iran-Afghan relations evolve, will US concerns about Afghanistan’s fragile state provide a basis for tacit cooperation between Washington and Tehran, similar to what existed when the Taliban was last in power?
- Topic:
- Government, Taliban, Geopolitics, Economy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, and United States of America
66. Austrian Migration Policy and the Events in Afghanistan and Belarus
- Author:
- Łukasz Ogrodnik
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Contrary to the government’s rhetoric about restrictive migration policy, Austria remains open to the settlement of people from outside the EU. The takeover of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 and the intensifying crisis on the border between EU countries and Belarus stimulated the Austrian government in international forums in the field of migration. The prospects for cooperation with the V4 countries in this regard were heightened after interior minister Karl Nehammer was elevated to Chancellor.
- Topic:
- Government, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Austria, and Belarus
67. Germany in the Shadow of War and Inflation: Six Months of the Scholz Government
- Author:
- Łukasz Jasiński
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to power with the intention of undertaking significant economic and social reforms. Their ambitious plans were symbolised by the title of the coalition agreement, “Daring to Make More Progress”. The war in Ukraine, though, has forced the government to take revolutionary steps in the areas of defence and energy security. The Chancellor’s vagueness about the supply of weapons to Ukraine has been causing his SPD’s ratings to fall and The Greens’ popularity to rise. To reverse this trend, the chancellor will pursue further social reforms.
- Topic:
- Government, War, Domestic Politics, Inflation, and Olaf Scholz
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
68. The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, public health, and the economy
- Author:
- Philippe Aghion, Guntram Wolff, Philippe Martin, Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud, Bary Pradelski, Miquel Oliu-Barton, Nicolas Woloszko, Patrick Artus, and Arnaud Fontanet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- In the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have, among other measures, mandated the use of COVID certificates to prove vaccination, recovery or a recent negative test, and have required individuals to show certificates to access shops, restaurants, and education or workplaces. While arguments for and against COVID certificates have focused on reducing transmission and ethical concerns, the incentive effects of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes and the economy has not yet been investigated. To estimate these effects, we construct counterfactuals based on innovation diffusion theory for France, Germany and Italy. We estimate that the announcement of COVID certificates during summer 2021 led to increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7–14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population up to the end of the year, in Germany 6.2 (2.6–6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4–12.3) p.p. Further, this averted an additional 3,979 (3,453–4,298) deaths in France, 1,133 (-312–1,358) in Germany, and 1,331 (502–1,794) in Italy; and prevented gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9–6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3–1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0–2.2) billion in Italy. Notably, the application of COVID certificates substantially reduced the pressure on intensive care units (ICUs) and, in France, prevented occupancy levels being exceeded where prior lockdowns were instated. Varying government communication efforts and restrictions associated with COVID certificates may explain country differences, such as the smaller effect in Germany. Overall, our findings are more sizeable than predicted. This analysis may help inform decisions about when and how to employ COVID certificates to increase vaccine uptake and thus avoid stringent interventions, such as closures, curfews, and lockdowns, with major social and economic consequences.
- Topic:
- Government, Economy, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
69. The National Flood Insurance Program: Solving Congress’s Samaritan’s Dilemma
- Author:
- Peter Van Doren
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Who should pay for the damages caused by natural disaster? The American ethos has long called on personal responsibility and private charity, rather than broad public aid, to secure people’s welfare. Although public emergency services play a vital role during and immediately after a catastrophe, this ethos looks to private insurance and disaster‐oriented organizations, such as the Red Cross, to be the main modes of recovery from a flood or storm, as well as prior care in siting and constructing buildings to blunt the effects of wind and rain.
- Topic:
- Government, Natural Disasters, Public Policy, and Insurance
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
70. When Is Tinkering with Safety Net Programs Harmful to Beneficiaries?
- Author:
- Jeffrey Clemens and Michael J. Wither
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The U.S. safety net has many moving parts. Redistributive transfers are made in cash and in kind, often come through regulation, and are implemented by multiple levels of government. Arrangements related to health care and health insurance are particularly complicated, as low‐income households must navigate eligibility for free care, Medicaid, subsidized coverage, and employer‐provided coverage.
- Topic:
- Government, Economic Policy, Labor Market, and Safety Net
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
71. Slippery Fish: Enforcing Regulation under Subversive Adaptation
- Author:
- Andres Gonzalez-Lira
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Correcting market failures and improving economic efficiency often require curbing undesirable behaviors of market agents who act to maximize their private benefits. Examples include actions that affect ecosystems, such as deforestation, pollution, and overexploitation of natural resources; actions that affect community health, such as drunk driving and open defecation; or actions that undermine government performance, such as corruption and tax evasion. Enacting and enforcing regulations is the most direct strategy to deter such behaviors. Implementing this strategy requires strong institutions to enforce laws, plus sophisticated policing to track agents’ reactions to enforcement so that rules are robust enough to curb the undesirable behavior even when regulated agents try to game the new system.
- Topic:
- Environment, Government, Markets, Regulation, and Adaptation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
72. Big data and national security: A guide for Australian policymakers
- Author:
- Miah Hammond-Errey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Data abundance, digital connectivity, and ubiquitous technology now enable near complete coverage of human lives across the planet, often in real-time. The Covid-19 pandemic, by forcing more interactions online and greater social reliance on technology, has significantly added to the global pool of data. Advances in the scale, application, and commercial uses of data significantly outpace regulation of the big data landscape. Technical and analytical capabilities that are essential for the functioning of societies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of commercial entities. The implications of big data for surveillance, real or potential interference, and kinetic war are underappreciated in policy and public discussions. Identifying and protecting the uses of critical data should be a national security priority for government on par with safeguarding critical digital infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Government, National Security, Science and Technology, Surveillance, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
73. Markets, Governments, and Crises in the Past and Future of the EU
- Author:
- Giuseppe Bertola
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- The common-market project, that after World War II aimed to prevent future wars among European Nations, evolved through crises into a complicated and unstable set of European Union policies and institutions. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine reinforced coordination and added common debt issuance to the supranational policy toolkit. But the NextGenEU program relies heavily on government subsidies rather than on market incentives, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows that economic integration can at most move the boundaries of war to those of the integrated economic area, rather than of Nations. These developments weaken the crucial role of integrated markets as the principal instrument for growth, cohesion, stability, and peace in Europe.
- Topic:
- Government, Markets, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe
74. Governments as Regulators and Consumers of Ethical AI
- Author:
- Gabby Bush and Jeannine Paterson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- Algorithmic Decision-Making (ADM) and Digital Technologies have created complex and multifaceted challenges for governments and the delivery of public services. Governments must operate simultaneously as the regulator and as a consumer, while maintaining public trust. The roll out of ADM systems has provided significant failures in public policy. For example, the Federal Government of Australia and the New South Wales State Government both deploying systems with significant flaws which led to serious outcomes for both welfare recipients and governments just in the last 10 years. Solutions to confront the failure of ADM systems can be addressed more effectively at a procurement and contract level as well as through the accountability and understanding within the public service. In order to ensure the fair use of digital technologies, governments must be willing to scrutinize their own purchase of technology, ideally through the lens of AI ethical frameworks, and address their own governance and procurement policies, thereby fulfilling their responsibility as service providers to citizens.
- Topic:
- Government, Science and Technology, Regulation, Ethics, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
75. Social Determinants and how they Influence Councillor Performance in District Local Government Councils in Uganda
- Author:
- Fred Kasalirwe, Jonas Mbabazi, Phoebe Atukunda, Oscord Mark Otile, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, Rebecca N. Mukwaya, and Walter Akena
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses how social determinants influence councillor role performance in the district local government in Uganda. The extent to which elected local government leaders perform their roles is critical for the quality of social services delivered to citizens. In the analysis, social determinants are conceptualised as; the education level of councillors, political party affiliation, electoral terms served/experience, councillor category, gender, and geographical location of the constituency represented by a councillor. In the same analysis, councillors' roles were conceptualised to include; legislation, contact with electorate, participation in lower local governments, and monitoring service delivery.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Services
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
76. Foresight and its application in ministries of foreign affairs
- Author:
- Javier Ignacio Santander
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- Based on previous research regarding foresight capabilities of ministries of foreign affairs, this work focuses on the modern concept of foresight and of its application to foreign relations. Specifically, it aims to provide a summary of similiarities observed in the way in which foreign affairs ministries have developed foresight capacity.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
77. Public policy actors view success differently, and it matters
- Author:
- Matt Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Literature tells us there are many dimensions of public policy success, and different actors in the policy process will likely focus on different dimensions. This paper asks how different actors in the policy process view policy success, and how much their views differ. It finds evidence that actors devising policy plans— designers—view success narrowly, as achieving near-term, programmed goals; whereas other actors involved in advocating for, authorizing, and implementing policies have a broader success perspective, paying more attention to non-program criteria like long-term impact, distributional and endurance success, and intertemporal gains that manifest in the way policies grow capability, political support, stakeholder satisfaction, and process legitimacy. Such finding raises a question about how policy objectives are determined when actors disagree, given that literature also tells us that policies are more likely to succeed when actors agree on what success is and how to achieve it.
- Topic:
- Government, Governance, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
78. This is How to Think About and Achieve Public Policy Success
- Author:
- Matt Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Officials working on public policies must answer questions like ‘What does policy success mean?’ and ‘How should I pursue policy work in order to achieve success?’ These are difficult questions, but there are ways to respond. One way draws on what I call the program logic of policy success, which suggests that: (i) Success requires efficiently meeting goals that stakeholders view as relevant, (ii) by doing work focused on impacting high-level objectives through programs that deliver promised time-sensitive outputs and outcomes according to a clear, logical plan. I believe this logic dominates the global public policy community, as ‘the way’ officials and organizations should think about and do policy work. This paper tests such belief, showing that officials do think in this way and that this thinking is influenced by common budgeting and evaluation mechanisms. I conclude by asking if this way of thinking poses any concerns, especially if it biases policy organizations to produce some kinds of policy success and not others.
- Topic:
- Government, Public Policy, and Policymaking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
79. Getting Real about Unknowns in Complex Policy Work
- Author:
- Matt Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- As with all public policy work, education policies are demanding. Policy workers need to ‘know’ a lot—about the problems they are addressing, the people who need to be engaged, the promises they can make in response, the context they are working in, and the processes they will follow to implement. Most policy workers answer questions about such issues within the structures of plan and control processes used to devise budgets and projects. These structures limit their knowledge gathering, organization and sense-making activities to up-front planning activities, and even though sophisticated tools like Theories of Change suggest planners ‘know’ all that is needed for policy success, they often do not. Policies are often fraught with ‘unknowns’ that cannot be captured in passive planning processes and thus repeatedly undermine even the best laid plans. Through a novel strategy that asks how much one knows about the answers to 25 essential policy questions, and an application to recent education policy interventions in Mozambique, this paper shows that it is possible to get real about unknowns in policy work. Just recognizing these unknowns exist—and understanding why they do and what kind of challenge they pose to policy workers—can help promote a more modest and realistic approach to doing complex policy work.
- Topic:
- Education, Government, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
80. The Israeli Government Falls: New Election and Implications for U.S.-Israel Relations
- Author:
- David Makovsky and Dennis Ross
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Watch an expert webcast examining the collapse of the year-old coalition government, the impact on President Biden’s upcoming Middle East trip, and the potential consequences for broader U.S.-Israel policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America