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702. The Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Strategies to Expand Treatment to HIV-Positive South Africans: Scale Economies and Outreach Costs
- Author:
- Mead Over, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Daniel J. Klein, and Anna Bershteyn
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- The South African government is currently discussing various alternative approaches to the further expansion of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in public-sector facilities. Alternatives under consideration include the criteria under which a patient would be eligible for free care, the level of coverage with testing and care, how much of the care will be delivered in small facilities located closer to the patients, and how to assure linkage to care and subsequent adherence by ART patients. We used the EMOD-HIV model to generate 12 epidemiological scenarios. The EMOD-HIV model is a model of HIV transmission which projects South African HIV incidence and prevalence and ARV treatment by age group for alternative combinations of treatment eligibility criteria and testing. We treat as sunk costs the projected future cost of one of these 12 scenarios, the baseline scenario characterizing South Africa's 2013 policy to treat people with CD4 counts less than 350. We compute the cost and benefits of the other 11 scenarios relative to this baseline. Starting with our own bottom-up cost analyses in South Africa, we separate outpatient cost into non-scale-dependent costs (drugs and laboratory tests) and scale-dependent cost (staff, space, equipment and overheads) and model the cost of production according to the expected future number and size of clinics. On the demand side, we include the cost of creating and sustaining the projected incremental demand for testing and treatment. Previous research with EMOD-HIV has shown that more vigorous recruitment of patients with CD4 counts less than 350 appears to be an advantageous policy over a five-year horizon. Over 20 years, however, the model assumption that a person on treatment is 92 percent less infectious improves the cost-effectiveness of higher eligibility thresholds over more vigorous recruitment at the lower threshold of 350, averting HIV infections for between $1,700 and $2,800 (under our central assumptions), while more vigorous expansion under the current guidelines would cost more than $7,500 per incremental HIV infection averted. Granular spatial models of demand and cost facilitate the optimal targeting of new facility construction and outreach services. Based on analysis of the sensitivity of the results to 1,728 alternative parameter combinations at each of four discount rates, we conclude that better knowledge of the behavioral elasticities would be valuable, reducing the uncertainty of cost estimates by a factor of 4 to 10.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa
703. Risks of Egypt’s Military Intervention in Libya
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- An armed group calling itself the Tripoli Province of the Islamic State executed twenty-one Egyptian Copts in the Libyan city of Sirte last week, sparking a global wave of anger. This provoked the Egyptian government to launch hasty air raids; however, these raids surprisingly did not target Sirte, where the executions took place, but rather the city of Darna, killing and wounding civilians. This paper argues that the Egyptian government’s strikes were retaliatory and misguided by any standards. Not only did the air strikes clearly hit civilian targets, but the extent of damage, if any, inflicted on rebels belonging to the Darna Mujahideen Shura Council is still unclear. Also unclear are the whereabouts of the rebels and their camps, raising speculations about whether the air raids were just a prelude to wider Egyptian intervention, as well as the nature and extent of any such intervention.
- Topic:
- Government, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt
704. King Salman’s Priorities: Revamping Alliances to Stop Iranian expansion
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Immediately after Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz passed, his successor, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, made successive major decisions affecting key positions in the structure of the political system. It appeared that Salman was restructuring the government entirely. Naturally, numerous questions have been raised about whether the major changes in the structure of rule and government will be associated with parallel changes in Saudi foreign policy. If there has been a serious incident that set off warning bells in Saudi Arabia over the past few months, it has undoubtedly been the events in Yemen, where the Houthis have seized control of most of the north and thus opened the country’s doors to Iranian influence. The Saudis’ response, Operation Decisive Storm, are further evidence of Saudi’s changing priorities, but it is too early to make extreme predictions on the impact of these changes on specific regional issues and policies.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Alliance, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
705. A successful alternative in the reformation of local self-government system in Ukraine
- Author:
- Galyna Dimlyevych
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- I rrespective of, whether the Ukraine is presidential or parliamentary republic, whether the wide or narrow coalition is formed, whether parties are united or separated the standard of people’s life will not change essentially. The only and real way out of deep crisis is a fundamental reformation of the system of local self-government in Ukraine. Such a way out was offered by me as the deputy of Svyatoshynsky district in the city of Kyiv council (from 1998 to 2006) in the form of the Declaration about local selfgovernment, which was proclaimed on March 30, 2005 in conditions of the opposition against lawlessness and corruption in local authorities. In particular, I as the local MP took extreme measures in the framework of the law: speeches and protests at each Council meeting, organized pickets, for which authorities have repeatedly threatened and harassed me (there are supporting documents). Later I organized and even was the chairman of the local parliamentary group “Justice”. But after the official support of the group by almost a half of the members of the Council (its requests have been already signed by 25 of the 60 deputies) the authorities was seriously frightened and actively undertook by different ways (the infiltration of stooges, threats, intimidation, bribery, slander and provocation) to dissolve the group up to its illegal ban. And as the result of my hard years of struggle a document was: Declaration about local self-government. By the way, at one time, in 2005, many members of the district councils of Kyiv supported me, but they were afraid to sign a declaration drawn up an prepared by me. So I did not hesitate to have signed and declared it on my own behalf on March 30, 2005.
- Topic:
- Government, Governance, and Coalition
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Eastern Europe
706. How do governments respond to food price volatility?
- Author:
- Per Pinstrup-Andersen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Large food price fluctuations—caused primarily by extreme weather events, market disruptions, investor behaviour and government policy—began in the world market in 2007 and presented serious challenges for governments, private traders, farmers and consumers. A collaborative project between Cornell University, University of Copenhagen, and UNU-WIDER on the political economy of food price policy studied how selected governments responded to increasing food price volatility, and explains why they responded as they did. The degree to which world market price volatility was transmitted to national and local markets varied greatly among the 16 countries included in the project. This was due to trade policies, differences between import and export parity prices, and several other factors. The low degree to which international prices were reflected in domestic prices in some cases, and the large impact of national factors—such as local weather events, poorly functioning domestic markets, and limited dependence on foreign trade—meant that the behavioural response by governments to the international food crisis tended to be similar to the responses to earlier food price fluctuations caused by national factors. Path dependence was widespread.
- Topic:
- Government, Markets, Food, and Volatility
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
707. Social Innovation and Aboriginal Communities
- Author:
- Iryna Volynets
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
- Abstract:
- Improving the lives and contributing to a more resilient society requires breakthrough ideas and approaches, game changing strategies and collaborations, and continuous innovation. Social innovation combines all of the above and is already bringing significant advances in areas such as reducing prisoner reoffending, caring for children and the elderly, community regeneration, financial inclusion, and supported housing. It has the potential to generate great benefits to the Indigenous communities in developed countries. While governments in Canada acknowledged the importance of social capital and social economy, and have been active in these areas in the recent years, a cross-sectoral national strategy to advance social innovation needs to be in place. There is no established labour market policy or program in Canada that would have social innovation aspects embedded in it as compared for example to the EU. The new policies are required for the further development of social finance and social enterprise sector. In September 2014, the Canadian National Advisory Board published the report Mobilizing Private Capital for Public Good: Priorities for Canada. The recommendations in the report for the domestic policy agenda are seen as a basis in this environmental scan for the potential future developments in the social innovation arena. More specific considerations for urban Aboriginal communities in Canada are also offered in this paper. Overall, this environmental scan attempts to (1) offer a vocabulary and an analysis of social innovation activity internationally and in Indigenous communities in particular, (2) discuss key issues and innovative approaches in labour market programming in Canada and abroad, and (3) offer considerations for Aboriginal communities in Canada to continue and expand the dialog with the policy makers. However, given the complexity of the issues that Aboriginal communities are facing, most considerations and recommendations are context-dependent and require further research. The research field of social innovation in the context of Aboriginal communities can be described as an opportunity not only to explore trust, balance, respect, and understanding in relationships between indigenous and non-indigenous peoples, but also to focus on the market-based strategies to achieve business targets while creating public social benefit. There still remains a gap in both literature documenting the statistics on Indigenous social enterprises and impact investing in Aboriginal businesses, the means of addressing issues in building Indigenous social enterprise pipeline, and the mechanisms in place for evaluating the effectiveness of the government or other programs targeted at improving Indigenous economic development through social innovation. Future research directions should focus on the abovementioned issues as well as on applications for innovations in job skills training and labour market programming in Canada and abroad.
- Topic:
- Government, Innovation, Indigenous, and Social Capital
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
708. Three Myths Behind the Case for Grexit: A Destructive Analysis
- Author:
- Photis Lysandrou
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- Greece faces a stark choice: either to compromise on the terms laid down by its international creditors and thereby remain in the eurozone or reject any compromise on the terms and exit the eurozone. The Syriza government was elected in January, 2015, on the double promise that it would tear up the deeply unpopular memorandum imposed by the Troika while at the same keeping the euro. It was a promise that it could not keep. After several months of tough negotiations it has become clear that Greece's creditors, led by the German government, have no intention of accepting a renegotiated deal that substantively lightens Greece's debt burden and thus the need for the type of harsh austerity measures contained in the memorandum.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
709. Why the UK's Fiscal Charter is Doomed to Fail: An Analysis of Austerity Economics during the First and the Second Cameron Governments
- Author:
- Richard Murphy and Ronen Palan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- The economic rationale for austerity policies harks back to a highly controversial proposals that originated in the 1990s known as 'expansionary fiscal contraction.' This paper explores these ideas relating to austerity and suggests that matters have not worked out as George Osborne expected. Furthermore, since the broad assumptions made by HM Treasury and the OBR remain the same in 2015 as they were in 2010, the paper presents an argument why austerity plans for the period 2016-2020 are also unlikely to succeed.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Austerity, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom
710. Peace and Corruption
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This report explores the connections between peace and corruption, focusing on the empirical trends between the most authoritative measures of peace and corruption. It fills an important gap as the linkages between peace and corruption are still being deeply studied. The analysis finds that there is a statistically significant relationship between peace and corruption. The most striking aspect of this relationship is the presence of a ‘tipping point’. If a country has low levels of corruption then increases in corruption will have little effect on peace. However, once a certain threshold is reached then small increases in corruption can result in large decreases in peace.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Government, Peace, Police, and Judiciary
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
711. Parliamentary Briefing: Contract Disclosure
- Author:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Extractive contracts are principal documents between a government and a company that details the terms and conditions under which a resource is exploited. While many jurisdictions have not traditionally made their oil, gas and mineral contracts available to the public, more recent developments show that contract disclosure is feasible and desirable for a wide range of countries. This briefing provides a number of reasons for the disclosure of extractive contracts. It also looks at questions and strategies for parliamentary monitoring and enforcing extractive agreements.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Government, Natural Resources, Accountability, and Extractive Industries
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe