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51. Does an effective government lower COVID19’s health impact? Evidence from Viet Nam

Author:
Duc Anh Dang and Ngoc Anh Tran
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Government effectiveness has played an important role in tackling the crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This paper discusses the different aspects of government effectiveness in explaining the variation in the COVID-19 confirmed cases and death levels in Viet Nam. We use the Provincial Governance and Public Administration Performance Index in 2019 to measure the quality of government effectiveness at the local level. The findings show the importance of health system capacity in the battle against COVID-19. We find that increased government transparency is significantly associated with lower confirmed rates. For the impact of the level of participation, we find that provinces that have higher quality of village head elections or where people have more opportunities to participate tend to have lower infected cases, especially where people participate in the formal and informal association and have voted in the National Assembly election.
Topic:
Government, Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

52. Does the adoption of peer-to-government mobile payments improve tax revenue mobilization in developing countries?

Author:
Abdoul-Akim Wandaogo, Fayçal Sawadogo, and Jesse Lastunen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Developing countries need to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance development. Revenue mobilization is often hampered by limited tax compliance, weak institutions, and technical problems with tax collection. One solution to these challenges is person-to-government (P2G) mobile phone payments, adopted in a number of developing countries since the early 2000s. This study assesses the causal effect of P2G adoption on tax revenue using propensity score matching. According to the matching estimates, countries that adopt P2G services experience a 1.2–1.3 percentage point boost in direct tax revenue as a share of GDP. P2G adoption increases revenue from both corporate and personal income taxes, with larger effects on the latter. The results remain robust to matching quality tests and alternative estimation methods, including function control, two-stage least squares, and system generalized method of moments. The average treatment effects are largest among lower-middle-income countries and countries characterized by limited tax compliance and corruption control, and by low levels of urbanization and domestic credit to the private sector. The findings suggest that developing countries, particularly those with poor institutions and low levels of financial inclusion, should promote the adoption and use of mobile money services for tax transactions.
Topic:
Development, Government, Finance, Economy, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Global Focus

53. Afghanistan: Where US-Iranian interests may yet intersect

Author:
Borzou Daragahi
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A new issue brief, Afghanistan: Where US-Iranian Interests May Yet Intersect, authored by Atlantic Council senior fellow Borzou Daragahi delves into the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and how the swift collapse of the US-backed government in Kabul last summer not only shocked the United States and its allies in the 20-year struggle in that country, but also Afghanistan’s influential neighbor, Iran. As refugees continue to stream into Iran, the government in Tehran has still not recognized the Taliban regime and remains worried about a further deterioration in Afghanistan’s economy and social cohesion, as well as the growing presence of Sunni Jihadi militants. As Iran-Afghan relations evolve, will US concerns about Afghanistan’s fragile state provide a basis for tacit cooperation between Washington and Tehran, similar to what existed when the Taliban was last in power?
Topic:
Government, Taliban, Geopolitics, Economy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, and United States of America

54. Austrian Migration Policy and the Events in Afghanistan and Belarus

Author:
Łukasz Ogrodnik
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Contrary to the government’s rhetoric about restrictive migration policy, Austria remains open to the settlement of people from outside the EU. The takeover of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 and the intensifying crisis on the border between EU countries and Belarus stimulated the Austrian government in international forums in the field of migration. The prospects for cooperation with the V4 countries in this regard were heightened after interior minister Karl Nehammer was elevated to Chancellor.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Austria, and Belarus

55. Germany in the Shadow of War and Inflation: Six Months of the Scholz Government

Author:
Łukasz Jasiński
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to power with the intention of undertaking significant economic and social reforms. Their ambitious plans were symbolised by the title of the coalition agreement, “Daring to Make More Progress”. The war in Ukraine, though, has forced the government to take revolutionary steps in the areas of defence and energy security. The Chancellor’s vagueness about the supply of weapons to Ukraine has been causing his SPD’s ratings to fall and The Greens’ popularity to rise. To reverse this trend, the chancellor will pursue further social reforms.
Topic:
Government, War, Domestic Politics, Inflation, and Olaf Scholz
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Germany

56. The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, public health, and the economy

Author:
Philippe Aghion, Guntram Wolff, Philippe Martin, Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud, Bary Pradelski, Miquel Oliu-Barton, Nicolas Woloszko, Patrick Artus, and Arnaud Fontanet
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have, among other measures, mandated the use of COVID certificates to prove vaccination, recovery or a recent negative test, and have required individuals to show certificates to access shops, restaurants, and education or workplaces. While arguments for and against COVID certificates have focused on reducing transmission and ethical concerns, the incentive effects of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes and the economy has not yet been investigated. To estimate these effects, we construct counterfactuals based on innovation diffusion theory for France, Germany and Italy. We estimate that the announcement of COVID certificates during summer 2021 led to increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7–14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population up to the end of the year, in Germany 6.2 (2.6–6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4–12.3) p.p. Further, this averted an additional 3,979 (3,453–4,298) deaths in France, 1,133 (-312–1,358) in Germany, and 1,331 (502–1,794) in Italy; and prevented gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9–6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3–1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0–2.2) billion in Italy. Notably, the application of COVID certificates substantially reduced the pressure on intensive care units (ICUs) and, in France, prevented occupancy levels being exceeded where prior lockdowns were instated. Varying government communication efforts and restrictions associated with COVID certificates may explain country differences, such as the smaller effect in Germany. Overall, our findings are more sizeable than predicted. This analysis may help inform decisions about when and how to employ COVID certificates to increase vaccine uptake and thus avoid stringent interventions, such as closures, curfews, and lockdowns, with major social and economic consequences.
Topic:
Government, Economy, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

57. The National Flood Insurance Program: Solving Congress’s Samaritan’s Dilemma

Author:
Peter Van Doren
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Who should pay for the damages caused by natural disaster? The American ethos has long called on personal responsibility and private charity, rather than broad public aid, to secure people’s welfare. Although public emergency services play a vital role during and immediately after a catastrophe, this ethos looks to private insurance and disaster‐​oriented organizations, such as the Red Cross, to be the main modes of recovery from a flood or storm, as well as prior care in siting and constructing buildings to blunt the effects of wind and rain.
Topic:
Government, Natural Disasters, Public Policy, and Insurance
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

58. When Is Tinkering with Safety Net Programs Harmful to Beneficiaries?

Author:
Jeffrey Clemens and Michael J. Wither
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The U.S. safety net has many moving parts. Redistributive transfers are made in cash and in kind, often come through regulation, and are implemented by multiple levels of government. Arrangements related to health care and health insurance are particularly complicated, as low‐​income households must navigate eligibility for free care, Medicaid, subsidized coverage, and employer‐​provided coverage.
Topic:
Government, Economic Policy, Labor Market, and Safety Net
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

59. Slippery Fish: Enforcing Regulation under Subversive Adaptation

Author:
Andres Gonzalez-Lira
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Correcting market failures and improving economic efficiency often require curbing undesirable behaviors of market agents who act to maximize their private benefits. Examples include actions that affect ecosystems, such as deforestation, pollution, and overexploitation of natural resources; actions that affect community health, such as drunk driving and open defecation; or actions that undermine government performance, such as corruption and tax evasion. Enacting and enforcing regulations is the most direct strategy to deter such behaviors. Implementing this strategy requires strong institutions to enforce laws, plus sophisticated policing to track agents’ reactions to enforcement so that rules are robust enough to curb the undesirable behavior even when regulated agents try to game the new system.
Topic:
Environment, Government, Markets, Regulation, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

60. Big data and national security: A guide for Australian policymakers

Author:
Miah Hammond-Errey
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Data abundance, digital connectivity, and ubiquitous technology now enable near complete coverage of human lives across the planet, often in real-time. The Covid-19 pandemic, by forcing more interactions online and greater social reliance on technology, has significantly added to the global pool of data. Advances in the scale, application, and commercial uses of data significantly outpace regulation of the big data landscape. Technical and analytical capabilities that are essential for the functioning of societies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of commercial entities. The implications of big data for surveillance, real or potential interference, and kinetic war are underappreciated in policy and public discussions. Identifying and protecting the uses of critical data should be a national security priority for government on par with safeguarding critical digital infrastructure.
Topic:
Government, National Security, Science and Technology, Surveillance, and Data
Political Geography:
Global Focus

61. Markets, Governments, and Crises in the Past and Future of the EU

Author:
Giuseppe Bertola
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The common-market project, that after World War II aimed to prevent future wars among European Nations, evolved through crises into a complicated and unstable set of European Union policies and institutions. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine reinforced coordination and added common debt issuance to the supranational policy toolkit. But the NextGenEU program relies heavily on government subsidies rather than on market incentives, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows that economic integration can at most move the boundaries of war to those of the integrated economic area, rather than of Nations. These developments weaken the crucial role of integrated markets as the principal instrument for growth, cohesion, stability, and peace in Europe.
Topic:
Government, Markets, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Europe

62. Governments as Regulators and Consumers of Ethical AI

Author:
Gabby Bush and Jeannine Paterson
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Algorithmic Decision-Making (ADM) and Digital Technologies have created complex and multifaceted challenges for governments and the delivery of public services. Governments must operate simultaneously as the regulator and as a consumer, while maintaining public trust. The roll out of ADM systems has provided significant failures in public policy. For example, the Federal Government of Australia and the New South Wales State Government both deploying systems with significant flaws which led to serious outcomes for both welfare recipients and governments just in the last 10 years. Solutions to confront the failure of ADM systems can be addressed more effectively at a procurement and contract level as well as through the accountability and understanding within the public service. In order to ensure the fair use of digital technologies, governments must be willing to scrutinize their own purchase of technology, ideally through the lens of AI ethical frameworks, and address their own governance and procurement policies, thereby fulfilling their responsibility as service providers to citizens.
Topic:
Government, Science and Technology, Regulation, Ethics, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. Social Determinants and how they Influence Councillor Performance in District Local Government Councils in Uganda

Author:
Fred Kasalirwe, Jonas Mbabazi, Phoebe Atukunda, Oscord Mark Otile, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, Rebecca N. Mukwaya, and Walter Akena
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This paper analyses how social determinants influence councillor role performance in the district local government in Uganda. The extent to which elected local government leaders perform their roles is critical for the quality of social services delivered to citizens. In the analysis, social determinants are conceptualised as; the education level of councillors, political party affiliation, electoral terms served/experience, councillor category, gender, and geographical location of the constituency represented by a councillor. In the same analysis, councillors' roles were conceptualised to include; legislation, contact with electorate, participation in lower local governments, and monitoring service delivery.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Services
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

64. Foresight and its application in ministries of foreign affairs

Author:
Javier Ignacio Santander
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
Based on previous research regarding foresight capabilities of ministries of foreign affairs, this work focuses on the modern concept of foresight and of its application to foreign relations. Specifically, it aims to provide a summary of similiarities observed in the way in which foreign affairs ministries have developed foresight capacity.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. New Standard Indicators for German Development Cooperation: How Useful are “Numbers at the Touch of a Button”?

Author:
Heiner Janus and Daniel Esser
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
For years, German development cooperation (GDC) has been striving to become more results-oriented. In 2022, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) took an important step in this direction by introducing 43 standard indicators. The aim was to aggregate development results across themes and countries in order to present them to the public. The BMZ hopes for more effective communication with Parliament (Bundestag) and the general public, as well as more coherent reporting by Germany’s two main implementing organisations, the GIZ (Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit – the German agency for international cooperation) and the development bank of the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW). From an international vantage point, Germany needs to catch up in respect to results orientation. Other major actors, especially the United Kingdom, the United States and multilateral development banks, introduced compre-hensive reporting systems back in the 2010s. These organisations report on 20 to 50 standard indicators to demonstrate how their activities contribute to measurable results. On this basis, they communicate more coherently with the public. BMZ aims to create a similar basis for improved communication. In a participatory process – and jointly with the GIZ and the KfW development bank – the BMZ has formulated indicators that are equally suited to implementing organisations’ political priorities and their needs. The administrative burden of collecting the standard indicators is limited by leveraging existing data. In addition, the BMZ has set methodological standards whose obligatory use is intended to increase the quality of the data collected. However, the introduction of standard indicators also entails risks: They can set perverse incentives that encourage reporting on short-term results. Such reporting can lead to a neglect of long-term effects, which are more difficult to measure. Research also shows that indicators no longer fulfil their original purpose of providing neutral representations of change if they are used to exert political control. In addition, there are methodological challenges, such as double counting across different benchmarks, as well as concerns about unrealisable expectations. Overall, we assess the development and introduction of standard indicators in GDC positively. Yet, some important decisions are still pending. The level of detail at which the data will be shared among stakeholders and the public has yet to be determined. The quality of the data collected and the transparency of reporting will in turn determine what larger effects towards an improved results orientation of GDC can be achieved. In view of the decentralised and fragmented structure of GDC, especially regarding monitoring and evaluation systems, we hope that the new indicators can foster the harmonising of the reporting systems of the GIZ and the KfW development bank. The standard indicators can also help make GDC more transparent. We therefore recommend that all data collected be made publicly available. Finally, the integrative potential of standard indicators should be harnessed to improve the division of labour between the ministry and the two main implementing organisations towards becoming learning-oriented – both in the data collection process and during evaluation.
Topic:
Development, Government, Development Aid, Cooperation, and Impact Evaluation
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

66. The Constitution of India and Indian Democracy: Have the Legislature, Judiciary and Executive Remained True to their Constitutional Mandate?

Author:
Jagdeep Dhankhar
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
Vice President of India, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar’s speech at the India International Centre on Constitution Day, 26 November 2022. When I look around, I see many whom I know, and many who know me. It is an absolute privilege to be on this impactful platform of the prestigious India International Centre (IIC). It is indeed my honour to address the august audience here on this momentous occasion of Constitution Day, and while we all are in the Amrit Kaal of our Independence. The IIC, of which I became a member in 1990, since its foundation days has been a significant epicentre of deep thoughts, constructive ideation, as also interactions and conversations on issues of national and international importance. There is national and global recognition and appreciation, and very rightly so, of the IIC as a conducive and engaging platform for thinking minds who are ever keen to reflect on momentous issues and those of great contemporaneous relevance. I am grateful to the IIC for enabling me to unfold my thoughts on this day on this platform. Best wishes and greetings to all of you and all the countrymen on Constitution Day. It was on this day in 1949 that Independent India laid the foundation for a new future for itself. Many in the world thought India would not last long. They wrote about it, reflected on it in the public domain. Yet, we have traversed for so long and we are in the 75th year of our Independence, as a shining star on the global horizon. This time Constitution Day is very special on this count also. The completion of 75 years for the mother of democracy, the largest democracy, is indeed a milestone. We can all be proud of it.
Topic:
Government, Democracy, Constitution, Judiciary, Speech, Executive Power, and Legislature
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

67. You May not be Interested in COVID, but COVID is Interested in You

Author:
James F. Keeley
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a clear threat to the lives of individual Albertans; together with the measures taken in response, it has posed a clear threat to their economic circumstances while uncovering existing social fissures in terms of the variable vulnerability of sub-populations to both the virus and those response measures. It qualifies as a significant security threat on these levels. In responding to this threat, the Alberta government marshalled its institutional resources and had to adapt them to circumstances of a scale and type last seen one hundred years ago. It had to do so under economic and political conditions that already presented significant challenges, and that were in some cases strongly exacerbated by its policy choices and their consequences. Finally, it had to do so in the face of strong, yet often contradictory, public pressures. These challenges and difficulties found in the microcosm of a single Canadian province in confronting a specific sort of problem may be of interest and use in considering the prospect, particularly of future, especially non-traditional, security challenges.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Government, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

68. Why Military Coups Are Back in Africa

Author:
Enoch Ndem Okon
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The celebration of seeming democratic density on the continent is understood against the background of the recent historical past where almost all the states in Africa were under the grip of either a military ruler, or an authoritarian one party despot. At the dawn of the new millennium, military coups and totalitarianism were releasing their grip on the continent as multi-party elections and electoral turnover gained momentum. Indeed, many regional organizations within the continent subscribed to the elimination of military coup and other means of grabbing political power, except the ballot boxes, as well as the full embrace of democratic norms and practices; therefore, there are clauses in regional governance and protocol affirming the primacy of democracy over any other form of government as signed by regional blocs on the continent.
Topic:
Government, Democracy, Coup, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa

69. Jawboning against Speech: How Government Bullying Shapes the Rules of Social Media

Author:
Will Duffield
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, social media has drastically reduced the cost of speaking, allowing users the world over to publish with the push of a button. This amazing capability is limited by the fact that speakers do not own the platforms they increasingly rely on. If access to the platforms is withdrawn, speakers lose the reach that social media grants. In America, government censorship is limited by the First Amendment. Nevertheless, seizing upon the relationship between platforms and speakers, government officials increasingly demand that platforms refrain from publishing disfavored speech. They threaten platforms with punitive legislation, antitrust investigations, and prosecution. Government officials can use informal pressure — bullying, threatening, and cajoling — to sway the decisions of private platforms and limit the publication of disfavored speech. The use of this informal pressure, known as jawboning, is growing. Left unchecked, it threatens to become normalized as an extraconstitutional method of speech regulation. While courts have censured jawboning in other contexts, existing judicial remedies struggle to address social media jawboning. Amid the opacity and scale of social media moderation, government influence is difficult to detect or prevent. Ultimately, congressional rulemaking and the people’s selection of liberal, temperate officials remain the only reliable checks on this novel threat to free speech.
Topic:
Government, Regulation, Social Media, Censorship, and Free Speech
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

70. Persistent Obstacles: Iraqi state’s prospects for forming a new government

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Head of the Sadrist Movement and powerful Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has announced that a truce reached to observe the Shia religious observance of Arbaeen was extended for another two weeks to mid-October to give political forces a chance to respond to his demands. The announcement coincided with the Iraqi parliament’s rejection of the resignation of Speaker of the parliament, Mohammed al-Halbousi on September 28. It also came while the Shi'ite Coordination Framework, the largest bloc in the parliament, claimed that, along with the Kurdisd and Sunni parties, it succeeded in establishing a new political coalition, reportedly named “Running-the-State Coalition.”
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, Coalition, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

71. The Emirati Lobby in America

Author:
Ben Freeman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has exerted considerable influence in its region in recent years and has also been a major factor in U.S. foreign policy. The UAE military and its proxies fought for years in Yemen and still maintain significant influence there, despite a 2020 pledge to withdraw from the devastating conflict. The UAE and other Gulf states have normalized relations with Israel under the auspices of the Abraham Accords. The UAE also continues to receive billions of dollars worth of U.S. military equipment and weapons. On the soft power side, the UAE played host to World Expo 2020, also known as the Expo 2020 Dubai, a cultural event that brought together representatives from nearly every country in the world. A small army of U.S.–based lobbyists working on behalf of the UAE has played a role in all these events, and in nearly every aspect of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Based on an exhaustive analysis of all Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) documents filed by organizations registered to work on behalf of UAE clients in 2020 and 2021, this brief offers a number of key findings regarding legal lobbying activities of the UAE in the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Soft Power, and Lobbying
Political Geography:
Middle East, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

72. Galvanising the Ship of the Indian State: An Agenda for Research and Dialogue

Author:
Saurabh Kumar
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
Three major tipping points affecting the future of the country vitally kick into play at about the same time, no more than a few decades from now: • reversal of the (currently favourable) youthful demography of the country (by 2055 or so); • danger of calamitous climate change globally beginning to affect the Indian subcontinent harshly; • likely disruptive impact of mainstreaming of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the socio-economic order (and therefore on political stability) as a result of robots surpassing human capabilities and replacing all human labour in repetitive and routine tasks. The prospect of large sections of society finding themselves free of want (basic survival needs) but idle, and therefore terribly distraught, in other words— an ‘unknown unknown’ that would beat the classical recipe for breeding a fair crop of devil’s workshops hands down. Especially so in conjunction with maturing and convergence of other fourth generation technologies (digital, nano, bio and machine learning) and increasing fusion of cyber and physical spaces. This essay, a strategic take on the overall Indian situation, is premised on the reading that the latter two of these mega challenges (which can, without exaggeration, be characterised as existential ones) cannot be addressed adequately in ‘business as usual’ (BAU) mode within the ambit of the existing organisational structures of over a century inherited by the Indian Republic from the colonial State. The likely sweeping, 360-degree impact of these overarching trends makes for urgent review of the machinery and mechanisms of the Indian State in a pragmatic, strategic mindset aimed at bracing up for the new challenges.
Topic:
Climate Change, Government, Research, State, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

73. Halting the Kleptocratic Capture of Local Government in Nigeria

Author:
Matthew T. Page and Abdul H. Wando
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Too often viewed as a monolithic state, Nigeria has complex subnational governance systems that can have outsized impacts on its trajectory. The state is covered with a vibrant but frayed political quilt, consisting of three layers: the federal government in Abuja, thirty-six state governments, and 774 local governments. Frequently overlooked, Nigeria’s local governments are disproportionately important; if they functioned well, they would be best positioned to meet people’s basic needs and to build their resilience to cope with everyday challenges. Matthew T. Page Matthew T. Page is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In reality, however, “no local government [in Nigeria] works for the people.”1 Instead, “every household is its own local government,” sourcing its basic needs—water, electricity, education, and healthcare—however it can.2 Exhausted by local government kleptocracy—a system in which those who govern steal from the governed—Nigerians understand that they must fend for themselves. While local government corruption is a global problem not unique to Nigeria, it is nevertheless crucial to address. It fuels democratic backsliding, communal conflict, and poverty. By hurting governance outcomes at the subnational level, local government corruption is quietly hobbling Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Domestic Politics, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

74. Engaging China on Strategic Stability and Mutual Vulnerability

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States and Chinese governments, for the foreseeable future, will have the resources to keep each other’s societies vulnerable to nuclear mass destruction. If these governments are not self-destructive, they will want to keep their competition from escalating into armed conflict that could lead to nuclear war. The constructs of strategic stability and mutual vulnerability can help significantly if both governments embrace them and interpret them similarly or even if the leaders of the two countries accurately understand how they differ in their perspectives on them. Unfortunately, to date, on these issues the United States and China are like a quarrelling married couple who tried therapy for one or two appointments, found it dissatisfying, and then alternated in making excuses for not trying again, perhaps with a different therapist or format. Each says they have tried and the other doesn’t listen or understand. Both suspect that the other isn’t saying what they really feel or want; what they really feel is hostility and distrust and what they really want is to get richer and more powerful without being hassled or attacked. It would be easier if they could just go their separate ways, but the property and wealth they depend on will be lost (or at least severely diminished) if they split up or do each other harm. This paper suggests that U.S. and allied interests require persistence in inviting China to dialogue on strategic stability; to demonstrate goodwill, the United States should acknowledge mutual vulnerability as a fact and necessary policy. The need for both moves is reflected in the fact that neither government has defined what it might mean by stability or mutual vulnerability. To help test intentions and prompt harder thinking, the paper plays the role of therapist and offers definitions of both concepts—strategic stability and mutual vulnerability—so that the two sides can critique them more freely and without recrimination. These definitions are broader and deeper than usual, reflecting the growing problem of managing escalation of conventional conflict to nuclear war, the scenario that drives U.S. and Chinese concerns and military posturing. Further, broader definitions are necessary to comprehend the dangers stemming from the entanglement of conventional, cyber, and nuclear weapons and command and control systems. The paper then sketches four benefits of declaring mutual vulnerability, contrary to opponents of the idea, before discussing steps that the United States and China could subsequently take to reflect and build each other’s confidence in such a policy. Finally, if perceived U.S. requirements in the future will be greater than the arsenal needed to deter or defeat Russia or China alone, how will Russia and China be persuaded not to try to build up to balance the additional U.S. force? In other words, if the United States is in two separate but interacting arms races (and deterrence relationships), how could each opponent (China and Russia) be persuaded to negotiate limits on their arsenal lower than the total the United States would insist on possessing to deter two nuclear opponents? Answers to these questions will affect strategic stability and mutual vulnerability of all parties but will take a long time to develop. To begin the process, the paper suggests asking Chinese leaders whether their silence on Putin’s nuclear first-use threats means that China has changed its own policy on nuclear use or that it never took a no-first-use policy seriously in the first place. Is China concerned that the capabilities that the United States and its allies may develop to strengthen defenses against Russia could be used against China too, and if so, might arms control be a wiser approach? Ultimately, the paper suggests that if China and the United States can sustain a process of serious dialogue, they will keep their relationship from worsening even if they cannot formally restrain their competition. And if dialogue leads one to ask the other for deeds to demonstrate goodwill, the paper has suggested some such deeds that could be undertaken with no security hazard and only slight political risk. No one should have the illusion that happiness is in this couple’s future. All this work would be to allow a nonviolent cohabitation that is better than the alternative of destitute divorce or murder-suicide.
Topic:
Government, Nuclear Weapons, Strategic Stability, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

75. How to Destroy an Investigation from the Inside: Ayotzinapa and the Legacies of Impunity

Author:
John Gibler
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Is the Mexican government's dubious new evidence part of another “historical truth?”
Topic:
Corruption, Government, History, Impunity, Memory, and Extrajudicial Killings
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

76. Trust as state capacity: The political economy of compliance

Author:
Timothy Besley and Sacha Dray
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explores the link between trust in government, policy-making, and compliance. It focuses on a specific channel whereby citizens who are convinced that a policy is worthwhile are more motivated to comply with it. This in turn reduces the government’s cost of implementing a policy and may also increase the set of feasible policies. Thus, state capacity is greater when citizens trust their government. The paper discusses alternative approaches to modelling the origins of trust, especially the link to the design of political institutions. We then provide empirical evidence consistent with the model’s findings that compliance is increasing in trust using the Integrated Values Survey and voluntary compliance during COVID-19 in the UK. We also show that countries with high levels of citizen trust in government were more likely to implement policies requiring voluntary compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper suggests that trust in government can play a role in building and expanding state capacities.
Topic:
Government, Political Economy, Capacity, Compliance, and Trust
Political Geography:
Global Focus

77. Public policy actors view success differently, and it matters

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Literature tells us there are many dimensions of public policy success, and different actors in the policy process will likely focus on different dimensions. This paper asks how different actors in the policy process view policy success, and how much their views differ. It finds evidence that actors devising policy plans— designers—view success narrowly, as achieving near-term, programmed goals; whereas other actors involved in advocating for, authorizing, and implementing policies have a broader success perspective, paying more attention to non-program criteria like long-term impact, distributional and endurance success, and intertemporal gains that manifest in the way policies grow capability, political support, stakeholder satisfaction, and process legitimacy. Such finding raises a question about how policy objectives are determined when actors disagree, given that literature also tells us that policies are more likely to succeed when actors agree on what success is and how to achieve it.
Topic:
Government, Governance, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

78. This is How to Think About and Achieve Public Policy Success

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Officials working on public policies must answer questions like ‘What does policy success mean?’ and ‘How should I pursue policy work in order to achieve success?’ These are difficult questions, but there are ways to respond. One way draws on what I call the program logic of policy success, which suggests that: (i) Success requires efficiently meeting goals that stakeholders view as relevant, (ii) by doing work focused on impacting high-level objectives through programs that deliver promised time-sensitive outputs and outcomes according to a clear, logical plan. I believe this logic dominates the global public policy community, as ‘the way’ officials and organizations should think about and do policy work. This paper tests such belief, showing that officials do think in this way and that this thinking is influenced by common budgeting and evaluation mechanisms. I conclude by asking if this way of thinking poses any concerns, especially if it biases policy organizations to produce some kinds of policy success and not others.
Topic:
Government, Public Policy, and Policymaking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

79. Getting Real about Unknowns in Complex Policy Work

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
As with all public policy work, education policies are demanding. Policy workers need to ‘know’ a lot—about the problems they are addressing, the people who need to be engaged, the promises they can make in response, the context they are working in, and the processes they will follow to implement. Most policy workers answer questions about such issues within the structures of plan and control processes used to devise budgets and projects. These structures limit their knowledge gathering, organization and sense-making activities to up-front planning activities, and even though sophisticated tools like Theories of Change suggest planners ‘know’ all that is needed for policy success, they often do not. Policies are often fraught with ‘unknowns’ that cannot be captured in passive planning processes and thus repeatedly undermine even the best laid plans. Through a novel strategy that asks how much one knows about the answers to 25 essential policy questions, and an application to recent education policy interventions in Mozambique, this paper shows that it is possible to get real about unknowns in policy work. Just recognizing these unknowns exist—and understanding why they do and what kind of challenge they pose to policy workers—can help promote a more modest and realistic approach to doing complex policy work.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

80. The Israeli Government Falls: New Election and Implications for U.S.-Israel Relations

Author:
David Makovsky and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Watch an expert webcast examining the collapse of the year-old coalition government, the impact on President Biden’s upcoming Middle East trip, and the potential consequences for broader U.S.-Israel policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

81. Scoring Iraq’s New Government: Metrics for Preserving U.S. Interests

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The protracted post-election process has been a step backward for Iraqi democracy, so Washington will need to closely monitor the new leadership’s actions and hold Baghdad to measurable benchmarks. Iraq’s stalled government formation process finally lurched forward on October 17, with new president Abdul Latif Rashid taking office more than a year after the 2021 election. Incoming prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will now try to ratify his cabinet during a parliamentary session on October 22. If he succeeds as expected, Baghdad will finally close perhaps its most troubled electoral cycle yet—a chapter in which a clear popular vote nearly failed to produce a peaceful transition of power, and the losing factions spurred the biggest winner to abandon parliament through corrupt judicial rulings. Under these sad circumstances, the U.S. government and its partners need to quietly but insistently push for early, inclusive elections to restore legitimacy to the democratic process. Simultaneously, all of Iraq’s friends must watch the new government like a hawk to ensure that militias and corrupt politicians do not attempt to purge technocrats, conduct witch hunts against Western-leaning officials, cover up past graft, or initiate a new wave of “asset-stripping” via state institutions. After many false alarms, the survival of Iraq’s close relationship with the West is truly at stake right now, and only firm expectation-setting can ensure that the partnership continues.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, and Military
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

82. Meloni at the Helm: What Does Italy’s New Government Mean for Sino-Italian Relations?

Author:
Andrew R. Novo
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Questions about the unity of Italy’s new government on several key foreign policy issues persist, ranging from the extent of its support for Ukraine to its commitment to various European Union institutions. However, on the issue of China, the new government of Prime Minister (PM) Giorgia Meloni appears united. This bodes well for transatlantic cooperation and could spell trouble for Beijing, which not too long ago entertained ideas of using Italy as a friendly counterweight in Europe. Under Meloni, Italian foreign policy, particularly toward China, is unlikely to chart a dramatically new course. This is largely because the current government has prioritized its commitment to NATO and needs to focus on domestic issues rather than risk upsetting the international arena. While openings remain for Sino-Italian cooperation in economic terms, such cooperation will be geared toward supporting Italy’s domestic challenges and is unlikely to provide Beijing with the significant foothold that it has long hoped to gain in Europe.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

83. Why Elections Won’t Happen in Libya

Author:
Asma Khalifa
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The 2021 agreement on holding elections was perceived by many Libyans as the light at the end of the dark tunnel of civil war and a reset to the political stagnation and the legal crisis. More than 2.5 million Libyans registered to vote, only for them to watch on the media a deliberate sabotage by those who were trusted in the process to commit to the agreement. While Libya is again setting the ground for future elections, this paper puts forward three points on why elections will not happen in Libya.
Topic:
Government, Democracy, Conflict, and Voting
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

84. Tunisia's Economy

Author:
Intissar Fakir, Marwa Haddar, and Fadil Aliriza
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Intissar Fakir is joined by Marwa Haddar and Fadil Aliriza to discuss the economic issues Tunisia is facing, international financial institutions' role in the crisis, and the government's actions, or lack thereof, to help the country.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Finance, International Institutions, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

85. Iraq's Deepening Political Crisis

Author:
Farhad Alaaldin and Robert Ford
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Ten months on from last October’s elections, Iraq still does not have a new government and faces a deepening political crisis. To understand the current situation's perils and what may be next for the future of the country, we are joined by Farhad Alaaldin, chairman of the Iraq Advisory Council, and Robert Ford, MEI Senior Fellow and former Ambassador to Syria and Algeria.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

86. Biden's First Year

Author:
Brian Katulis and Randa Slim
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Brian Katulis and Randa Slim join the program to discuss the Biden administration's Middle East policy one year in, and look ahead to the challenges it will face in the region in the year ahead.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Middle East

87. Israel & Palestine: Hot topics in Congress

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Khaled Elgindy, and Lara Friedman
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Host Alistair Taylor speaks with Khaled Elgindy and Lara Friedman about the release of their recently completed 2022 congressional briefing series on Israel and Palestine: Hot topics in Congress. The eight-part webinar series features an array of Palestinian and Israeli voices, weighing in on some of the most pressing and timely Israel/Palestine-related topics in Congress. Recordings of all eight sessions of the congressional briefing series can be found on the MEI and FMEP websites at www.mei.edu and www.fmep.org.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

88. A Conversation with Dr. Haider al-Abadi

Author:
Haider al-Abadi
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Dr. Haider al-Abadi joins the program to discuss the country’s fight against ISIS, Iraqi politics and the challenges of reform. Dr. al-Abadi has a new book out, entitled "Impossible Victory: How Iraq Defeated ISIS" (Biteback Publishing, April 2022).
Topic:
Government, Reform, Islamic State, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

89. Local Self-0Government in a Crisis Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Serbia

Author:
Samed Karovic, Sinisa Domazet, and Jelena Jesic
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This research examined whether there is an elaborate system of protocols, protection, and prevention in place at the local self-government level in the event of a crisis caused by an epidemic or pandemic. The core idea of this paper was to evaluate the protocol's effectiveness at the local self-government. Analysis was conducted using responses of 16 local self-government authorities. During a crisis caused by an epidemic/a pandemic of infectious illnesses, surveys were done as a cross-section documenting and detecting the current state of local self-government functioning. Methods used in the study are defining the objectives of the research, conceptualization, analysis of legal regulations, economic analysis, and decomposition of the problem. Key results and arguments of this paper expanded existing research thus there are only certain empirical data from areas that have been affected by the infectious disease caused by the epidemic/pandemic. Data was collected, processed, and systematized to serve in model formulation. As a brief conclusion, this study suggested protocol effectiveness at the local self-government level representing the idea that emergency and crisis management should be organized to preserve the health and livelihood of the population in the area affected by the pandemic of infectious diseases and thus enable the functioning of economic activities and society as a whole.
Topic:
Government, Leadership, Local, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

90. Localising the SDGs in India: The Role of Government and Private Training Institutes

Author:
Sreerupa Sengupta and Avik Sinha
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) present a new and coherent way of thinking about diverse facets of development. Implicit in the framework of the SDGs is that the goals are interconnected and interdependent. To translate such critical ideas into reality, countries need new skills, perspectives and approaches to the implementation of policies and programmes. Capacity-building, in particular for the public sector, is therefore at the core of achieving the 2030 Agenda. Although all countries have designed their respective capacity-building strategies and undertaken various interventions for knowledge dissemination among government officials and other stakeholders on the SDGs, there are wide variations between countries regarding the progress on capacity-building initiatives. In many developing countries, the heterogeneity of the political, societal and economic structures poses one of the biggest challenges to capacity-building for the localisation of the SDGs. This discussion paper explores and maps the SDG training landscape for government officials in India. As a particularly heterogeneous country in political, economic and cultural terms, India is an interesting example to explore the challenges of capacity-building in many developing countries towards the achievement of the SDGs. Against this background, the study aims to achieve the following: a) to understand the role of government and private actors in building the capacity of government officials to respond to the 2030 Agenda b) to understand the resources required for capacity-building on the SDGs c) to identify the current shortcomings in capacity-building efforts d) to develop recommendations for a more coordinated and effective strategy that will strengthen the capacity-building initiatives of India This paper highlights the relevance of the evidence for creating better processes, even in the sphere of sensitisation, capacity-building and advocacy. A major contribution of the paper is to help India develop an evidence-based policy on SDG trainings. This paper will also assist other countries that are currently tackling similar kinds of challenges in the realm of capacity-building for the SDGs in designing a comprehensive capacity-building strategy for effective implementation of the SDGs.
Topic:
Development, Government, Sustainable Development Goals, and Capacity
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

91. Houthis at the Gates of Marib – The Yemen Review, January-February 2021

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Conflict, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

92. Make Foreign Policy Feminist. A Feminist Foreign Policy Manifesto for Germany

Author:
Nina Bernarding, Kristina Lunz, Sheena Anderson, Antonia Baskakov, Damjan Denkovski, Annika Kreitlow, and Anna Provan
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
Abstract:
This manifesto intends to encourage and support those inside the next government to begin the process of systematically changing how Germany’s foreign policy operates, whom it is made for, and whom it is informed by. It introduces what a Feminist Foreign Policy would look like for Germany, including a proposed definition of a German Feminist Foreign Policy. We analyse existing German Federal Foreign Policy and outline principles of a German Feminist Foreign Policy and its priority areas, presenting action items (recommendations) for a radically different way of conducting foreign policy. Among many other topics, we address climate justice, demilitarisation, health, trade and peace & security.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Health, Feminism, Peace, Trade, Climate Justice, and Demilitarization
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

93. Brexit and Beyond: government, law and external relations

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its impact upon British governance and the constitutional makeup of the UK, and what Britain’s place in the world is set to look like outside of the European Union. This mini report is taken from the Brexit and Beyond report.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, Governance, Law, European Union, Constitution, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

94. Global Britain: views from abroad

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
‘Global Britain’ is the term used to denote the UK’s approach to the world post-Brexit. The success of ‘Global Britain’ depends not simply on the energy and resources devoted to it by the UK Government but also on the participation of potential partners. To consider what these reactions might be, UK in a Changing Europe and the School of Security Studies at King’s College London consider perceptions of Global Britain across different states around the world in this new report.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Government, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

95. What do MPs think? expectations, issues and identities

Author:
Alan Wager and Paula Surridge
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This briefing, authored by Dr Alan Wager, sets out where the House of Commons stands on key public policy issues facing the country and its expectations for the future. Drawing on a representative survey of Members of Parliament undertaken by Ipsos MORI between June and August 2021, it provides a pen portrait of opinion within the corridors of Westminster.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Brexit, Survey, Society, and Parliament
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

96. Fake Civil Society: The Rise of Pro-Government NGOs in Nigeria

Author:
Matthew T. Page
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Nigeria’s dynamic and expansive civil society is one of its greatest strengths and is crucial to maintaining what democratic space still exists in the country. Yet its independence, outspokenness, and unwavering commitment to democracy, transparency, and human rights have long antagonized the kleptocratic, power-hungry—but also image-conscious—ruling elites. To help protect themselves from domestic pressure and outside scrutiny, Nigeria’s top powerbrokers have cultivated a new generation of pro-government non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Like the fake grassroots groups bankrolled by past military juntas, these surrogate organizations masquerade as authentic civil society groups, singing the praises of top officials and attacking their critics. A symptom of the country’s more fundamental political ills, Nigerian elites’ growing use of civil society surrogates should set off alarm bells both domestically and internationally. It is both corrupting and corruptive, compounding the country’s downward democratic trajectory. Like many countries in Africa—and, for that matter, elsewhere in the world—Nigeria has recently experienced democratic backsliding that threatens its long-term stability and prosperity. The rise of pro-government NGOs is both a cause and a consequence of this backsliding and must be addressed as part of any effort to arrest and reverse it.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Democracy, and NGOs
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

97. Chinese Mining and Indigenous Resistance in Ecuador

Author:
Cintia Quiliconi and Pablo Rodriguez Vasco
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Chinese mining companies were drawn to Ecuador by a strong interest in diversifying their sources of copper in Latin America. But Chinese mining operations in Ecuador, which could have contributed to Ecuadorian development, soon gained a negative reputation after these activities prompted a great deal of local pushback, especially from affected Indigenous communities. As a result, the major Chinese mining consortium that now controls Ecuador’s two main copper mines has taken adaptive steps to stabilize its mining investment and increase the security of its supply networks, steps that often have not produced the intended results. Working through two subsidiaries, the Chinese mining consortium has responded to this localized criticism with a blend of tactics that includes co-opting select local figures, colluding with national officials to sidestep environmental and sociocultural safeguards, and coercing inhabitants into relocating under the threat of force from accommodating Ecuadorian authorities. By turning Ecuadorian national elites against locals and using divide-and-conquer tactics among Indigenous communities, the Chinese-led mining projects have entrenched existing political cleavages, have undermined community cohesion, and ultimately have harmed Ecuador’s democratic fabric, especially the standing of civil society and Indigenous rights organizations. While Ecuador has welcomed Chinese capital and other sources of international investment, this infusion of financing has increased the risk of political abuses at the national and local levels. This paper explains the adaptive strategies employed by the Chinese consortium and its subsidiaries in charge of the Mirador and San Carlos Panantza mining sites, contrasting the differing results these tactics have produced in each case. Both projects are located in Ecuador’s so-called Copper Belt provinces of Morona Santiago and Zamora Chinchipe, which are part of a mountain range known as the Cordillera del Cóndor. They are embedded in an ecologically and culturally sensitive zone that includes territory of the Indigenous Shuar community in the Ecuadorian Amazon. In the case of Mirador, the Chinese mining consortium’s adaptive response helped its subsidiary overcome local resistance but only by crushing it. In the case of San Carlos Panantza, local resistance so far has not been overcome, so the Chinese consortium has remained unable to proceed with its project. Neither case, even the Mirador site where mining has moved forward, is a sign of success for future relationships between Chinese mining conglomerates and Ecuadorian communities. To understand why the Chinese consortium’s adaptive tactics were somewhat more successful in Mirador, it is important to focus on the differing composition of the inhabitants of the land where the two mines are located. Mirador sits on territory shared by Shuar and non-Shuar settler communities who have different bonds with the land. The non-Shuar settlers emphasize the productive and commercial value of the land over the spiritual and symbolic value that is key for many in the Shuar community. The Canadian-held and later Chinese-controlled companies active in Ecuador’s mining industry understood this difference between Mirador’s inhabitants and adapted accordingly: they managed to displace resistant residents despite widespread opposition through questionable and sometimes arguably illegal purchases of land. In San Carlos Panantza, a second subsidiary of the Chinese consortium chose to respond to local criticism with the same alleged practices of violence, occupation, and displacement used in Mirador. However, although the two projects are geographically near each other, the situation played out differently at the second would-be mine: ongoing opposition has prevented mining operations from beginning at all yet. Again, paying attention to the inhabitants of the land is instructive. San Carlos Panantza is in the heart of Shuar territory in Arutam, a region with few non-Indigenous settlers. The mining incursion by the Chinese-run subsidiary and the Ecuadorian security forces tasked with supporting it were seen as a threat to the area’s Shuar people, who have been strongly protesting and opposing the mining venture since late 2016. This state of affairs is likely to have far-reaching effects for Ecuador too. The apparent collusion between Ecuador’s national government and the Chinese consortium (and its subsidiaries) has crushed those who oppose mining, has upended the country’s policies on resource extraction, and has yielded documented violations of local communities’ human rights. These events have transpired because both the Chinese firms and the Ecuadorian state have tended to see local communities as an obstacle to the development of the country’s extractive industries. As a result, local social and environmental safeguards have been weakened, tenuous consultation processes have eroded, environmental licenses have been granted under dubious circumstances, and local communities have been forcibly displaced. This paper explores the implications of the adaptive tactics chosen by the Chinese mining subsidiaries that run the Mirador and San Carlos Panantza mines. It also addresses how Chinese companies have, in some cases, negotiated with local communities to begin mining exploitation, while also analyzing the ways the Chinese mining consortium has interacted with the Ecuadorian government and other players, such as the Canadian mining company it acquired and other peer companies that set up successful coalitions for mining development in Ecuador. Finally, the paper explores the effects the agreements between the Ecuadorian government and the Chinese consortium have had on local actors.
Topic:
Development, Government, Mining, Indigenous, and Resistance
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South America, and Ecuador

98. State of the Nation Address by President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (September 1, 2021)

Author:
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
State of the Nation Address by President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (September 1, 2021)
Topic:
Government, Politics, Domestic Politics, and Speech
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

99. Speech of H.E. Mr. Nguyen Hung, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Socialist Republic of Vietnam to the Republic of Poland on the occasion of 76th anniversary of the National Independence Day

Author:
Nguyen Hung
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Speech of H.E. Mr. Nguyen Hung, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Socialist Republic of Vietnam to the Republic of Poland on the occasion of 76th anniversary of the National Independence Day (September 2, 2021)
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, and Speech
Political Geography:
Poland and Vietnam

100. “To Make Us Slowly Disappear”: The Chinese Government’s Assault on the Uyghurs

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide released a report in November 2021, “To Make Us Slowly Disappear”: The Chinese Government’s Assault on the Uyghurs. The Chinese government’s attacks on the Uyghur community are alarming in scale and severity. The report expresses the Museum’s grave concern that the Chinese government may be committing genocide against the Uyghurs, a Muslim community in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of northwest China. The report also details multiple crimes against humanity that the Chinese government is committing against the Uyghur population. These crimes include forced sterilization, sexual violence, enslavement, torture, forcible transfer, persecution, and imprisonment or other severe deprivation of physical liberty. The Museum’s findings, based on publicly available information, demonstrate that China is failing to uphold its responsibility to protect its citizens from genocide and crimes against humanity. The Chinese government must halt its attacks on the Uyghur people and allow independent international monitors to investigate and ensure that the crimes have stopped. The seriousness of the assault on the Uyghur population demands the immediate response of the international community to protect the victims.
Topic:
Genocide, Government, Human Rights, Minorities, State Violence, Atrocities, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:
China and Xinjiang