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71. Trade linkages and firm value: evidence from the 2018 US-China "trade war"

Author:
Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Sibo Liu, and Heiwai Tang
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
On March 22, 2018, Trump proposed to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports leading to a significant concern over the "Trade War" between the US and China. We evaluate the market responses to this event for firms in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China have lower stock and bond returns but higher default risks in the short time window around the announcement date. We also find that firms' indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic input-output linkages affects their responses to the announcement. These findings suggest that the structure of US-China trade is much more complex than the simplistic view of global trade that engendered Trump's "Trade War" against China.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Trade Wars, and Exports
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

72. What Holds African LDC Exports Back? Translating Global Trade Alert Data Into A Positive Trade Agenda For Africa

Author:
Pamela Anne Bayona, Vincent Martin Beyer, and Olayinka Oladeji
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Trade-Restrictive Measures (TRM) are an area of huge concern to importers and exporters in African Union Least Developed Countries (AU LDCs) located in Sub-Saharan Africa. This report identifies and analyses discriminatory government policies that adversely affect AU LDCs over the period 2009 to 2017 by using the Global Trade Alert database, a database that collects information on trade-discriminatory measures implemented by countries worldwide. The research by the students shows that the most frequently encountered TRM types are import tariff measures, tax-based export incentives, trade finance measures, public procurement localisation and export taxes. However, the Global Trade Alert excludes Technical Barriers to Trade and Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures that are formally justifiable as serving public interests, but are typically the most commonly cited as the biggest obstacles to trade. The report also provides policy recommendations and negotiation positions to the AU LDC Countries to move from a defensive trade agenda to an offensive one.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Developing World, Global Political Economy, and Free Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and African Union

73. Conditional Pricing of Currency Risk in Africa's Equity Market

Author:
Odongo Kodongo and Kalu Ojah
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
In this paper, we sought to establish whether Africa’s volatile currencies drive equity risk premium. We use the stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework to estimate various conditional specifications of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model through generalized method of moments technique. Our results show strong evidence of conditional, time-varying currency risk premium in equity returns. Currency risk is also perceived by international investors as important in informing the equities pricing kernel. We also find evidence that international investors are worried about Africa’s small size equity markets and build anticipated low trading into their pricing calculus.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Economic Growth, Capital Flows, Currency, and Profit
Political Geography:
Africa

74. Shipping Migrants in the Age of Steam: The Rise and Rise of the Messageries Maritimes c. 1870-1914

Author:
Riccardo Liberatore and Christopher McKenna
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Oxford Centre for Global History
Abstract:
Around the middle of the nineteenth century the full effects of steam technology were starting to be felt in western industry and transport. The steam engine had been patented by a Scottish engineer named James Watt in 1781 but the first experiments in steam powered trains and ships occurred towards the beginning of the nineteenth century. The Atlantic Ocean became a laboratory for maritime engineers. Its first crossing entirely by steam was achieved in 1838 by the SS Great Western, a wooden-hulled paddlewheel steamer designed by the celebrated English engineer, Isambard Kingdom Brunel. It wasn’t until the final decades of the nineteenth century, however, that steam engines came to replace sails entirely. The obstacles remained many and the new technology was adopted with some apprehension due to the spectacular explosions, collisions and shipwrecks that littered its early history (the sinking of the SS Titanic in 1912, property of the White Star Line from Liverpool, is the most well known). Nonetheless, its effects rippled across international commerce and global politics. Spearheading the change were mostly European shipping companies that, with the support of their imperial backers, exploited the decline in American shipping and the technological inferiority of Asian competitors, and rushed forwards. One of these companies was the French Messageries Maritimes. In its heyday it was known as France’s postman in the Mediterranean. In 1851 it had been awarded a substantial government subsidy to deliver post and carry government personnel across the Mediterranean, subsequently renewed at regular intervals for almost a century. At the time Algeria was France’s only colonial possession in the region (it added Tunisia in 1881 and Morocco in 1912), but its commercial interests in the area were many (for instance the Suez Canal, completed in 1869, was constructed by a French company under the stewardship of Ferdinand de Lesseps, a French engineer) and the communities of French men and women living on its shores were numerous. Despite the continued reliance on government contracts, the Messageries Maritimes still had to navigate its way skilfully in a global industry characterized by large costs, high order logistical challenges and intense international competition. How it managed to do so and why it chose to enter the migrant shipping market is the subject of this case-study.
Topic:
Migration, Science and Technology, History, Capitalism, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Spain, England, and Scotland

75. Human Rights and Economic Policy Under the Argentine Military Dictatorship, 1976-1983

Author:
Greg Ross
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
The conflict between a liberal economic agenda and a politics of repression appeared throughout the Argentine military dictatorship. Tensions between the junta’s pro-market and political agendas surfaced in various economic policies, such as international trade. During the dictatorship, Argentina increased trade with countries in the Soviet sphere: of the ninety-nine bilateral economic agreements signed between 1976 and 1983, thirty were with Soviet countries, China, or Cuba. Cases such as that of the military dictatorship suggest how domestic politics—especially the politics of human rights—can become intertwined with, opposed, and shaped by economic interests.
Topic:
Economics, Democracy, Global Political Economy, Economic Policy, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
China, Argentina, and Soviet Union

76. Lessons Notes on Capacity Development in Africa

Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
ACBF with close to three decades of capacity building on the continent, it is high time to reflect on and share in a single document the lessons learnt in these efforts. This volume, therefore, tackles important questions including: what works, what doesn’t work in capacity development interventions and why? What are the implementation bottlenecks facing countries? What critical factors need to be reconsidered and what initiatives should be undertaken to effectively and sustainably support the capacity development efforts on the continent? What results have these capacity building efforts produced for African citizens? Are there adaptable generic capacity building tools that have emerged from over a quarter century of ACBF engagement with African institutions and societies?
Topic:
Development, Global Political Economy, Capacity, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

77. Transnational Advocacy Networks. Twenty Years of Evolving Theory and Practice

Author:
César Rodríguez and Peter Evans
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
Activists, particularly those based in the global South, have accumulated a wealth of experience in dealing with a range of transnational networks operating in diverse issue areas. New theoretical understandings have reflected this accumulating experience. As the twentieth century came to a close, the practice of global and transnational politics was undergoing a sea change. Understandings of its dynamics were changing along with the practice. Classic paradigms of international relations, which had focused almost exclusively on relations among nation-states, were being expanded to consider the impact of transnational civil society organizations. Recognition of the role of new nonstate actors in global politics was epitomized by the impact of Margaret Keck and Kathryn Sikkink’s Activists beyond Borders in 1998. Their framework is a foundational reference point for the analyses of recent and future trends that are set out in this book. This volume brings together a set of ten essays by reflective activists who draw on their experience to provide new insights into what has been happening in the world of transnational advocacy, and by engaged academics who are committed to using the tools of their disciplines to contribute to the same agenda. The essays reflect not only the views of individual authors but also the collective dialogue among the authors at the workshop where the papers were originally presented in the spring of 2015.
Topic:
Civil Society, Non State Actors, Global Political Economy, Networks, and transnationalism
Political Geography:
Global South

78. Explaining Globalization Scepticism

Author:
Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Critical public attitudes toward economic globalization reflect a response to different facets of globalization and varied consequences of international market integration for individuals. The distribution of benefits and losses related to globalization provides a starting point for numerous studies of attitudes toward economic integration. Individuals perceive globalization’s benefits differently depending on their sector of employment or level of educational attainment, among other factors. In addition to these explanations, attention to the institutions and policies that influence how governments engage with globalization and manage its domestic consequences can also inform the analysis of why scepticism to economic integration varies across national settings. This report reviews academic literature dealing with attitudes toward globalization and the linkages between globalization and national political processes to situate the extent of globalization scepticism in Denmark alongside experiences in France and Germany. It provides an overview of trends in attitudes toward globalization in these countries and examines possible drivers of the trends.
Topic:
Globalization, Governance, Global Markets, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, and Denmark

79. Striking a Balance: Straight Talk on the Global Economy

Author:
Michelle Nicholasen
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
or more than two decades, economist Dani Rodrik has warned about the dangers of what he has called “hyperglobalization.” He has long argued that national economies and domestic policies should have priority amidst a rising tide of unfettered globalization and open markets. Today we have some evidence that he was right. Our race toward “one world economy” has produced consequences in the form of global social inequality and populist or extremist political movements, for example. Rodrik envisions a way to keep bringing down trade barriers while maintaining the integrity of the nation-state. His latest book, Straight Talk on Trade, is a synthesis of his monthly columns for Project Syndicate, and functions as a roadmap of Rodrik’s prolific analyses. The Weatherhead Center spoke to him about his long view on world economies.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

80. ASEAN as an FDI Attractor: How Do Multinationals Look at ASEAN?

Author:
Masahito Ambashi
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This policy brief presents an overview of the ASEAN economy in terms of its economic relationship with multinationals, particularly Japanese companies, that have long invested in this region. ASEAN has been an attractor of foreign direct investment (FDI). Business interest in ASEAN has increased again recently due to the (i) relatively low wage of ASEAN compared to China, (ii) establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), (iii) economic partnership network with a core of ASEAN countries, (iv) large-scale market covered by ASEAN, and (v) rise of CLMV countries (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam). In these trends, ASEAN has established a reciprocal economic relationship with other countries and regions. To develop its economy, ASEAN member states are expected to further advance the AEC at a high level. Hence, ASEAN must address challenges such as deepening further economic integration and narrowing development gaps in the region. Most importantly, ASEAN still needs to increase the attractiveness of its 'whole region' as an essential and integral part of global value chains to draw further FDI.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan and Southeast Asia