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51. Global value chains and technology transfer: new evidence from developing countries

Author:
Davide Rigo
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
This paper uses the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys as a sample of 18 developing and emerging economies to investigate the causal relationship between global value chains and the transfer of technology to manufacturing firms in developing nations. It focuses on one specific channel for technology transfer, namely the licensing of foreign technology. By using a propensity score matching difference-in-differences technique, I show that there is a positive and causal impact of being involved in complex international activities (i.e. being a two-way trader) on the licensing of technology. Importantly, domestic firms becoming two-way traders are more likely to acquire foreign-licensed technology than domestic firms starting to either export or import. These findings suggest that the complexity associated with the trading activity determines whether or not foreign technology is licensed.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, World Bank, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

52. Soft vs Hard Governance for Labour and Environmental Commitments in Trade Agreements: Comparing the US and EU Approaches

Author:
Vandana Gyanchandani
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Three methodologies are used to enforce labour and environmental commitments in the US and EU trade agreements: cooperative, sanctions and composite. In-depth analysis of the scope of commitments, level of protection, institutional framework as well as types of informal and formal dispute processes elucidates the pros and cons of such methodologies. Sanctions approach weakens cooperation by misjudging the complexity of domestic policy adjustments through transnational governance. Cooperative mechanism within the NAAEC's composite design emerges as the best approach: Submission on Enforcement Matters (SEM). As it provides for an independent secretariat supported by civil society group and factual records as a sunshine remedy to review citizen submissions. However, the process is constrained by political clout, lack of managerial capacity and legal dilemmas around informal lawmaking (IN-LAW) procedures.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Sustainable Development Goals, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

53. The evolution of the EU law against criminal finance: the "hardening" of FATF standards within the EU

Author:
Leonardo Borlinia and Francesco Montanaro
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
This article examines the recent evolution of the EU anti-money-laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CTF) legislative framework, focusing on the relationship between the main international standards in the field and the newest EU legislation. It suggests that international soft law norms—in particular, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendations—have had a decisive influence on the latest development of legislation at the EU level and within its member states. It further argues that mainly the preventive component of the AML/CTF legislation will be strengthened by the EU instruments adopted in mid-2015. However, this Article concludes that the adoption of global soft standards has posed significant challenges to the EU legislative framework. The arguments are developed in four parts. The Article first highlights the main regulatory prescriptions that stem from the study of the phenomenology and the economics of AML/CTF regulation and underpin the current international regulatory paradigm. Second, it explores the evolution of the main international instruments in the field with a special focus on the role played by the FATF Recommendations. It also illustrates the relation between these instruments and the adoption of the new EU AML/CTF legislation from two different, but complementary, angles: (1) noting that the current international AML/CTF framework has a multidisciplinary approach, the Article focuses on the framework's repressive component and assessing the limits of the EU criminal approach against money laundering and terrorist financing; and (2) examining the recent EU preventive legislation and addressing the main challenges posed to the EU legislative framework when attempting to accommodate global standards, especially regarding tensions with fundamental freedoms and human rights protected within the EU.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Law, Finance, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54. Trade linkages and firm value: evidence from the 2018 US-China "trade war"

Author:
Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Sibo Liu, and Heiwai Tang
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
On March 22, 2018, Trump proposed to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports leading to a significant concern over the "Trade War" between the US and China. We evaluate the market responses to this event for firms in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China have lower stock and bond returns but higher default risks in the short time window around the announcement date. We also find that firms' indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic input-output linkages affects their responses to the announcement. These findings suggest that the structure of US-China trade is much more complex than the simplistic view of global trade that engendered Trump's "Trade War" against China.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Trade Wars, and Exports
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

55. What Holds African LDC Exports Back? Translating Global Trade Alert Data Into A Positive Trade Agenda For Africa

Author:
Pamela Anne Bayona, Vincent Martin Beyer, and Olayinka Oladeji
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Trade-Restrictive Measures (TRM) are an area of huge concern to importers and exporters in African Union Least Developed Countries (AU LDCs) located in Sub-Saharan Africa. This report identifies and analyses discriminatory government policies that adversely affect AU LDCs over the period 2009 to 2017 by using the Global Trade Alert database, a database that collects information on trade-discriminatory measures implemented by countries worldwide. The research by the students shows that the most frequently encountered TRM types are import tariff measures, tax-based export incentives, trade finance measures, public procurement localisation and export taxes. However, the Global Trade Alert excludes Technical Barriers to Trade and Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures that are formally justifiable as serving public interests, but are typically the most commonly cited as the biggest obstacles to trade. The report also provides policy recommendations and negotiation positions to the AU LDC Countries to move from a defensive trade agenda to an offensive one.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Developing World, Global Political Economy, and Free Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and African Union

56. Conditional Pricing of Currency Risk in Africa's Equity Market

Author:
Odongo Kodongo and Kalu Ojah
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
In this paper, we sought to establish whether Africa’s volatile currencies drive equity risk premium. We use the stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework to estimate various conditional specifications of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model through generalized method of moments technique. Our results show strong evidence of conditional, time-varying currency risk premium in equity returns. Currency risk is also perceived by international investors as important in informing the equities pricing kernel. We also find evidence that international investors are worried about Africa’s small size equity markets and build anticipated low trading into their pricing calculus.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Economic Growth, Capital Flows, Currency, and Profit
Political Geography:
Africa

57. Shipping Migrants in the Age of Steam: The Rise and Rise of the Messageries Maritimes c. 1870-1914

Author:
Riccardo Liberatore and Christopher McKenna
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Oxford Centre for Global History
Abstract:
Around the middle of the nineteenth century the full effects of steam technology were starting to be felt in western industry and transport. The steam engine had been patented by a Scottish engineer named James Watt in 1781 but the first experiments in steam powered trains and ships occurred towards the beginning of the nineteenth century. The Atlantic Ocean became a laboratory for maritime engineers. Its first crossing entirely by steam was achieved in 1838 by the SS Great Western, a wooden-hulled paddlewheel steamer designed by the celebrated English engineer, Isambard Kingdom Brunel. It wasn’t until the final decades of the nineteenth century, however, that steam engines came to replace sails entirely. The obstacles remained many and the new technology was adopted with some apprehension due to the spectacular explosions, collisions and shipwrecks that littered its early history (the sinking of the SS Titanic in 1912, property of the White Star Line from Liverpool, is the most well known). Nonetheless, its effects rippled across international commerce and global politics. Spearheading the change were mostly European shipping companies that, with the support of their imperial backers, exploited the decline in American shipping and the technological inferiority of Asian competitors, and rushed forwards. One of these companies was the French Messageries Maritimes. In its heyday it was known as France’s postman in the Mediterranean. In 1851 it had been awarded a substantial government subsidy to deliver post and carry government personnel across the Mediterranean, subsequently renewed at regular intervals for almost a century. At the time Algeria was France’s only colonial possession in the region (it added Tunisia in 1881 and Morocco in 1912), but its commercial interests in the area were many (for instance the Suez Canal, completed in 1869, was constructed by a French company under the stewardship of Ferdinand de Lesseps, a French engineer) and the communities of French men and women living on its shores were numerous. Despite the continued reliance on government contracts, the Messageries Maritimes still had to navigate its way skilfully in a global industry characterized by large costs, high order logistical challenges and intense international competition. How it managed to do so and why it chose to enter the migrant shipping market is the subject of this case-study.
Topic:
Migration, Science and Technology, History, Capitalism, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Spain, England, and Scotland

58. Human Rights and Economic Policy Under the Argentine Military Dictatorship, 1976-1983

Author:
Greg Ross
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
The conflict between a liberal economic agenda and a politics of repression appeared throughout the Argentine military dictatorship. Tensions between the junta’s pro-market and political agendas surfaced in various economic policies, such as international trade. During the dictatorship, Argentina increased trade with countries in the Soviet sphere: of the ninety-nine bilateral economic agreements signed between 1976 and 1983, thirty were with Soviet countries, China, or Cuba. Cases such as that of the military dictatorship suggest how domestic politics—especially the politics of human rights—can become intertwined with, opposed, and shaped by economic interests.
Topic:
Economics, Democracy, Global Political Economy, Economic Policy, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
China, Argentina, and Soviet Union

59. Lessons Notes on Capacity Development in Africa

Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
ACBF with close to three decades of capacity building on the continent, it is high time to reflect on and share in a single document the lessons learnt in these efforts. This volume, therefore, tackles important questions including: what works, what doesn’t work in capacity development interventions and why? What are the implementation bottlenecks facing countries? What critical factors need to be reconsidered and what initiatives should be undertaken to effectively and sustainably support the capacity development efforts on the continent? What results have these capacity building efforts produced for African citizens? Are there adaptable generic capacity building tools that have emerged from over a quarter century of ACBF engagement with African institutions and societies?
Topic:
Development, Global Political Economy, Capacity, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

60. Explaining Globalization Scepticism

Author:
Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Critical public attitudes toward economic globalization reflect a response to different facets of globalization and varied consequences of international market integration for individuals. The distribution of benefits and losses related to globalization provides a starting point for numerous studies of attitudes toward economic integration. Individuals perceive globalization’s benefits differently depending on their sector of employment or level of educational attainment, among other factors. In addition to these explanations, attention to the institutions and policies that influence how governments engage with globalization and manage its domestic consequences can also inform the analysis of why scepticism to economic integration varies across national settings. This report reviews academic literature dealing with attitudes toward globalization and the linkages between globalization and national political processes to situate the extent of globalization scepticism in Denmark alongside experiences in France and Germany. It provides an overview of trends in attitudes toward globalization in these countries and examines possible drivers of the trends.
Topic:
Globalization, Governance, Global Markets, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, and Denmark

61. Striking a Balance: Straight Talk on the Global Economy

Author:
Michelle Nicholasen
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
or more than two decades, economist Dani Rodrik has warned about the dangers of what he has called “hyperglobalization.” He has long argued that national economies and domestic policies should have priority amidst a rising tide of unfettered globalization and open markets. Today we have some evidence that he was right. Our race toward “one world economy” has produced consequences in the form of global social inequality and populist or extremist political movements, for example. Rodrik envisions a way to keep bringing down trade barriers while maintaining the integrity of the nation-state. His latest book, Straight Talk on Trade, is a synthesis of his monthly columns for Project Syndicate, and functions as a roadmap of Rodrik’s prolific analyses. The Weatherhead Center spoke to him about his long view on world economies.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

62. A Vision of Africa's Future

Author:
Giovanni Carbone
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Africa is a fast-changing continent and an area of rising global relevance, where major transformation processes are currently underway, from demographic expansion to economic development, from social progress to environmental challenges, from technological innovation to continental integration, from political change to migratory pressures. How will these complex transformations shape the Africa of tomorrow? This Report sets out a vision for Africa’s future based on five key traits: an archipelago of heterogeneous growth trajectories; the revolutionary impact of technological leapfrogging; regional integration and the growing role of sub-regional processes; the clustering of instability mainly around the core of the region; and the migration movements that originate from – but also predominantly remain within – the African continent.
Topic:
International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa

63. The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region

Author:
Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region volume deals with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa that are facing a particularly troubled period in their historical development. Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and to a lesser extent Jordan and Tunisia have plunged into a legitimacy crisis that in some cases has turned into civil war or violent upheaval. As traditional authorities lose their legitimacy, two alternatives are emerging. The first is a more decentralized system of government, evinced by the empowerment of subnational government bodies and the growing legitimacy of local authorities; in this trend, the local authorities are able to keep the state united and more functional. The second is a growing number of political groups that act as opposition to authoritarianism, which is experiencing a revival. The analysis herein also focuses on Islamist movements; namely, their organizational and ideological development as well as how the shrinking of the political space affects them and the entire polity. This Report explores the distinctive dynamics and characteristics of these challenges in the post-Arab Spring era.
Topic:
International Affairs, Global Security, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

64. Coming to Terms with China at the World Bank and in Development Finance

Author:
Scott Morris
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
First, we should recognize that much of the value of the IFIs for the United States derives from their multilateral character. It greatly oversimplifies things to suggest they are strictly a US tool, available to do our bidding no matter what the issue. The reality is that when we want to get something done in these multilateral institutions, we need to work with other countries. In turn, these institutions are most effective when they have the buy-in of the largest number of their member countries. And when the United States is seeking something from them that doesn’t have broad-based support, it can be a tough road.
Topic:
Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. Global Debt Dynamics: What Has Gone Wrong

Author:
Andreas Antoniades and Stephany Griffith-Jones
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
This paper analyses the nature and characteristics of global debt dynamics in the post global financial crisis (GFC) period. First, we attempt to map the ways in which debt has been moving from sector to sector, and from one group of countries to another within the global economy. By capturing this inter-sectorial, inter-national, inter-regional movements of global debt we aspire to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of global debt and its mode of operation. Second, we attempt to analyse what is wrong with global debt dynamics, i.e. we examine the broken link between what global debt was supposed to do and what it does. Here, we point to three interrelated dynamics: the accumulation of unproductive debt, growing inequalities of income and wealth, and the increase in privately-created, interest-bearing money.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Global Focus, and Global Markets

66. From Deng to Xi: Economic Reform, the Silk Road, and the Return of the Middle Kingdom

Author:
LSE Ideas
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This LSE IDEAS Special Report - with senior contributors from politics, journalism, and academia - looks at the internal causes and consequences of the return of the 'Middle Kingdom'. It explores the extent to which Deng's momentous economic reforms in 1978 have shaped modern China, what the country's expanded international role under Xi means, and who really makes Chinese foreign policy.
Topic:
International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
China

67. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and geopolitical tension between Egypt and Ethiopia with Sudan in the mix

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi indicated in a televised broadcast on 16 January, 2018 that his country neither wants war with Sudan nor Ethiopia; Egypt was also not looking to meddle in the internal affairs of these two countries. These pronouncements came at the backdrop of what is proving to be a challenge for these three countries, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest hydro-electric dam project in Africa. This policy brief gives a snapshot of the brewing tension surrounding the GERD and some of the regional geopolitical concerns as well as an alternative for a workable solution.
Topic:
International Relations and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Ethiopia

68. Could Trump Deliver Iran an Oil Windfall?

Author:
Richard Nephew
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The president’s recent statement that OPEC should reduce their prices may merely be an attempt to assign blame for rising gasoline prices in the midst of the US driving season or an even more cynical attempt to rally his political base in opposition to globalism. Or, it may have something to do with the president’s own decision to create a crisis with Iran. While attention is duly paid to how much Americans have to pay at the pump, a more subtle and complicated story will soon play out with respect to Iran and the reapplication of US sanctions ordered by Trump on May 8, 2018. In fact, unless oil prices are contained, the primary result of the president’s action may be to ensure that Iran profits from the oil market risks that sanctions have created.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Geopolitics, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
America, Iran, and Global Focus

69. The Crisis of Global Politics: Perspectives from Continental Philosophy

Author:
Josefin Graef, Scott Hamilton, Benjamin Martill, Elke Schwarz, and Uta Staiger
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Can the work of the great European philosophers help solve Europe's problems today? This report explores what we can learn from Heidegger, Arendt, and Anders about how to tackle populism, climate change, and technological change
Topic:
Political Theory and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

70. Caribbean Economies and the Year Ahead 2018

Author:
Scott MacDonald
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Caribbean economies face 2018 with mixed prospects. While overall trends are positive for most countries, a number of economies are still struggling from the damage sustained during last year’s hurricane season. The positive forces at work are a stronger global economic expansion, improving prospects for tourism, development of the oil industry in the Guiana Shield, and a strengthening in commodity prices. On the negative side are the costs of reconstruction, ongoing fiscal pressures in a handful of states, and the increasing negative consequences of an imploding Venezuela. Significant questions continue to exist as to U.S. policy in the region, spillover of Brexit, Chinese Caribbean policy, and a rising level of Russian engagement in some countries. In all of this, the Caribbean remains vulnerable to events external to the region and increasingly needs to focus on digital technology and how it can be applied to make local economies more competitive. During much of 2017, growth prospects were generally positive, helped along by a stronger expansion in the advanced economies, stabilization in commodity prices, and a higher level of remittances from the Caribbean diaspora. The Dominican Republic led the way, though at a slower pace than the year prior due to efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit. Better tourist numbers also lifted growth prospects in much of the Eastern Caribbean and Jamaica. The laggards were Puerto Rico (with a $72 billion debt crisis), the U.S. Virgin Islands (dealing with acute fiscal pressures), Barbados (struggling with deteriorating public finances and reduced capital market access), and commodity exporters Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago. While most Caribbean countries and dependencies were fortunate to avoid massive destruction during the 2017 hurricane season, storms Irma and Maria brought considerable disruption to Barbuda, Dominica, St. Martin (both the French and Dutch sides), the British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgins Islands. Category 5 Hurricane Maria in September was the worst natural disaster on record in Dominica and certainly ranks in the top 10 for Puerto Rico. Indeed, both Dominica and Puerto Rico were left effectively without economies.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Disasters, Tourism, Digital Economy, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Caribbean, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Barbados, and Puerto Rico

71. Meeting the China Challenge Responding to China’s Managed Economy

Author:
James Andrew Lewis and John J. Hamre
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The U.S.-China relationship is one that neither country can escape. Both benefit from it in important ways. The question for quite some time, though, has been whether China’s economy, international presence, and participation in global institutions would come to look more like our own, or whether it would seek to challenge the order the United States has built and led over the past 70 years. While China’s economic size does not necessarily threaten the United States, China’s willingness to use its economic leverage to forge a global economy closer to its image raises complicated questions considering its lack of transparency. The essays in this volume, written by a diverse group of CSIS scholars, address some of the key issues that currently vex the U.S.-China economic relationship.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Global Political Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, North America, and Asia-Pacific

72. Pakistan’s Gwadar Port: A New Naval Base in China’s String of Pearls in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Gurmeet Kanwai
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The Issue The development of Gwadar Port is a key element of the greater China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It speaks to both the strength of the China-Pakistan relationship and the reach of China’s grand strategy. With Pakistan’s two other major ports operating near capacity with no room for expansion, projects in Gwadar promise to eventually handle one million tons of cargo annually, while also providing significant industrial, oil, and transportation infrastructure. Though a “monument of Pakistan-China friendship,” there are misgivings on both sides about CPEC, including the safety of Chinese workers, the resentment of Baloch nationalists, and the growing debt trap created by the project. The prospect of the PLA Navy in Gwadar poses greater security questions, as it forms another link in China’s efforts to expand its maritime presence in the Indo-Pacific region. The members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad,” comprised of India, Japan, Australia, and the United States, should counter China’s strategic outreach by networking with other like-minded countries on cooperative security frameworks to ensure a free, open, prosperous, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:
Security, Oil, Regional Cooperation, Global Political Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Japan, China, Middle East, India, Asia, and Australia

73. Rebooting U.S.-China Trade Ties: “Enter Ye Through the Narrow Gate”

Author:
Christopher K Johnson
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Nearly two weeks after the U.S. “Trade Avengers” unleashed during their visit to Beijing what one reasonably could call “trade shock and awe” with a very aggressive—if thoroughly researched and well-crafted—set of demands targeting the yawning U.S. trade deficit with China and the core of that country’s throaty industrial policy, China this week is taking its turn with the visit of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo member and Vice Premier Liu He, President Xi Jinping’s economic point man who is almost universally described as a thoughtful, pragmatic, and mild-mannered policy academic. In the interim, voices from a wide swath of official Washington have sounded the alarm about the dangers of Chinese influence operations and the presence of alleged subversives, while President Trump himself seemed to cast aside these growing concerns by suggesting via Twitter that he would ask the Commerce Department to overturn its action against the Chinese telecommunications firm ZTE—long a focus of the U.S. security community for suspected cyber espionage activity and irrefutable violations of U.S. law—in response to protests that reportedly emanated directly from President Xi. With such frenetically sustained action in such a short period of time, the fog of war seems particularly thick at the moment. As such, it seems like a good time to slow down and have a think about how we got here, what actually is going on, and, with a little bit of luck, perhaps think about some ways to craft a viable way forward. Just like milestone birthdays in one’s personal life, important political anniversaries also can incline the mind toward reflection. Next year, of course, marks the fortieth anniversary of the reestablishment of diplomatic ties between the United States and China. As such, much breath and a lot of ink have been devoted to analyzing the course of the bilateral relationship over that nearly half-century. Although certainly not a universal opinion, it seems fair, if perhaps overly reductionist, to suggest that the general conclusion among a substantial number of U.S. officials, policy analysts, and journalists has been that the consistent U.S. policy emphasis on engagement with China during those forty years was, at the end of the day, a sham. In this rendering, naïve groups of senior policymakers in succeeding U.S. administrations and in most of the U.S. China-watching community were hoodwinked by wily CCP leaders who talked the talk of integrating into the so-called U.S.-led rules-based international order, but all the while they had a secret master plan to instead subvert that order and challenge U.S. primacy throughout the globe. In a slightly less menacing (if no less absurd) version of this narrative, China was, indeed, headed generally toward this hoped for integration under the stewardship of deceased paramount leader Deng Xiaoping and his handpicked successors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao until Xi Jinping arrived and, through a ruthless consolidation of power, decided instead to change course in what now regularly is referred to in shorthand as Xi’s “authoritarian turn.” But this conclusion seems utterly wrongheaded when examined in the light of hard facts. On the Chinese side of the equation, for example, Deng Xiaoping may have appeared warm and cuddly when donning his cowboy hat during his famous 1979 visit to the United States, but he could be just as ruthless and grasping as any other authoritarian leader. Deng’s exceptionally courageous and dogged pursuit of the policies of reform and opening certainly are worthy of praise, but they cannot, and therefore should not, be separated from the fact that he was content to sit idly by as Chairman Mao’s loyal lieutenant as Mao decimated his political rivals during the Anti-Rightist Campaign (1957-59) and the Great Leap Forward (1958-62). Nor should we forget that Deng used every ounce of his massive personal prestige with the People’s Liberation Army to, with steely determination, rally his many reluctant commanders to execute the brutal Tiananmen crackdown of June 4, 1989. Similarly, Xi Jinping is no Jack-in-the-Box-like figure who has pulled a fast one with a sharp directional turn in the last couple of years made all the more stark after his sweeping consolidation of power at last fall’s 19th Party Congress. In fact, it is this author’s contention, as supported by a large body of written work and public commentary, that everything Xi has done over the last five years was abundantly clear, whether explicitly or in embryonic form—from the moment he was introduced to the world as China’s new top leader in the fall of 2012, as encapsulated in his call for his country to pursue the “China Dream” set on a foundation of “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” This by no means suggests the United States should express support for, or even acquiescence in, Xi’s policies, but only that it should not be reacting with the borderline hysteria that now seems to be gripping Washington.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Global Political Economy, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

74. Southeast Asia Financial Integration and Infrastructure Investment: What Role for the United States?

Author:
Murray Hiebert
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The Issue Southeast Asia has come a long way since the devastating financial turmoil of 1997 and has set up mechanisms to avoid the next shock. But in case a future crisis hits, it would be useful for the U.S. government to say upfront if it would support International Monetary Fund (IMF) support. Some in the Trump administration have said they oppose IMF bailouts. The newest opportunity—and challenge—to Southeast Asia’s financial system is the bursting onto the scene of fintech firms. These companies are meeting the urgent needs of underserved populations. Yet their activities outstrip the ability of traditional regulators to govern their activities and protect consumers. China’s Belt and Road Initiative could play a mighty role in meeting infrastructure needs in Southeast Asia if it is done right. But so far Beijing has said little about what it envisions the impact of its projects to be. “Will that spending help people who need it most?” asks Jonathan Hillman of CSIS’ Reconnecting Asia Project. “Will it go into viable projects…? Will it help or hurt climate change?” “[I]n countries where public debt is already high, careful management of financing terms [for infrastructure projects] is critical,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said during a conference in Beijing. “This will protect both China and partner governments from entering into agreements that will cause financial difficulties in the future.”
Topic:
Infrastructure, Global Political Economy, Integration, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

75. Australia and the United States An Alliance for the Twenty-first Century

Author:
Amy Searight and Michael J. Green
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
On August 21–22, 2017, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) organized a conference in Sydney, Australia—Australia and the United States: An Alliance for the 21st Century—in cooperation with the United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney and the Perth USAsia Centre at the University of Western Australia. The conference was generously supported by a grant from the U.S. Department of State. This conference gathered together key thinkers from both countries at an important time for the Australia-U.S. alliance. The scope of cooperation between Australia and the United States has never been greater—extending well beyond traditional defense, intelligence, and diplomatic engagement—and the alliance enjoys healthy support among policymakers and the wider public in both countries. Bilateral economic, social, and cultural ties are broad and deep. The two countries are working closely together to defeat the threat posed by ISIL and other terrorist networks in the Middle East and globally, and to ensure the Asia-Pacific region remains stable and prosperous. Yet the Australia-U.S. alliance faces growing external and internal challenges. The United States, Australia, and other allies confront rising threats in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, and globally from terrorism, financial instability, pandemic diseases, and other transnational challenges. Revisionist powers are seeking to reshape regional security dynamics and carve out spheres of influence, jeopardizing the liberal rules-based order that has supported American and Australian security and prosperity for more than half a century. The risks of miscalculation and conflict are growing, as is the prospect of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. At the same time, allied resources available to meet these problems are constrained by slow economic growth across the developed world and the cost of supporting aging populations. Now, economic dislocation and stagnant wages are generating a wave of populist and protectionist sentiment in many parts of the world that risks undermining governance and a return to zero-sum, mercantilist economic policies—while U.S. political divisions and some policy choices are exacerbating allies’ concerns about the future of American global leadership. Many of these issues are playing out in the contemporary Australian debate, with a range of senior political figures and commentators calling for Australia to distance itself from the United States and recent opinion polls suggesting doubts about U.S. staying power as well as growing affinity for China. This is broadly consistent with polling from the region that suggests that China’s growing economic clout and military capabilities are driving expectations that China will supplant the United States as the predominant power in the Asia Pacific. These trends raise new questions about the future of the alliance in domestic, bilateral, and international contexts that we must address. They also highlight: the increasingly complex challenges facing U.S. and Australian alliance managers; the importance of not taking the alliance for granted; a requirement for fresh ideas about the alliance; and the need to engage a broader range of stakeholders, including a new generation of strategic thinkers in Australia and the United States. The Sydney conference brought together a group of about 40 participants—including 10 young next-generation leaders from Australia—for a two-day discussion on the opportunities and challenges facing the Australia-U.S. alliance across geopolitical, security, and economic issues. It focused on identifying key takeaways and formulating practical recommendations to improve the Australia-U.S. alliance’s capacity to adapt to changing dynamics, both globally and in the Indo-Pacific region, and to ensure support for the alliance well into the twenty-first century. Participation was by invitation and the discussions were off the record.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Counter-terrorism, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

76. Representing American Values and Interests in China

Author:
Terry Branstad
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassadors Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
When I welcome visitors to the U.S. Ambassador’s Residence in Beijing, they often comment on a black-and-white photo of my first meeting with Xi Jinping. In the picture, the members of the 1985 Chinese agriculture delegation to Iowa stand calmly behind my desk, peering into the camera, as Xi Jinping stands unobtru­sively to my right. Some visitors ask, “Ambassador Branstad, did you know this young man would become President of China?” Indeed, I did not—I treated him with the same Iowa hospitality with which I welcome all my guests. His importance as a rising leader of China, though, became increasingly apparent over the course of six gubernatorial visits I made to China during the subsequent 30 years. The same is true of U.S.-China relations. Today, I have the honor of representing the United States in the most consequential bilateral relationship in the world, one that we absolutely have to get right. During President Donald Trump’s November 2017 state visit to China, the President identified three priority tasks for the two nations’ relationship. First, work with the Chinese govern­ment to address the North Korean nuclear and missile threat. Second, seek a more balanced and reciprocal trade and investment relationship. And third, partner with Chinese authorities to reduce the flow of illicit opioids from China to the United States. Each task presents its own unique challenges and opportunities.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North Korea

77. China and International Financial Standards: From "Rule Taker" to "Rule Maker"?

Author:
Hongying Wang
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Following the global financial crisis, international financial standard-setting bodies granted emerging economies unprecedented representation. Some observers expected the existing system of international financial regulation to be undermined by the larger number of players and their diverging interests from the traditional standard setters. This paper examines whether China, the largest emerging economy, has influenced the international financial regulatory regime. It finds that China has, by and large, been a “rule taker” so far, but points out some important signs of change. It argues that with improved technical capacity, greater stakes in international financial standards and rising structural power, China is poised to increase its participation in the making of international financial standards.
Topic:
Regulation, Global Political Economy, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

78. Crisis in the WTO: Restoring the Dispute Settlement Function

Author:
Robert McDougall
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The impasse in the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the appointment of new members of the Appellate Body is just one symptom of crisis in cooperation on trade. Driven by skepticism about multilateralism and binding dispute settlement, and by a growing strategic and economic rivalry with China, the current US administration has elevated longstanding US concerns about WTO dispute settlement to new heights. The inability of WTO members to exercise their collective authority to interpret the meaning of their WTO commitments has meant that the Appellate Body is effectively not subject to any checks and balances. As other WTO members blocked US efforts to negotiate more member control, the United States increasingly turned to unpopular unilateral mechanisms, culminating in the current block on new appointments as part of its more disruptive trade policy. Assuming the United States will eventually return to rules-based trade, restoring the WTO dispute settlement system to full capacity and enhancing its legitimacy will likely require some changes. This might include improving mechanisms for political oversight, diverting sensitive issues from adjudication, narrowing the scope of adjudication, improving institutional support and providing members more say over certain procedures. Preserving compulsory, impartial and enforceable dispute settlement in the WTO will require an accommodation of different perspectives on how the system should function. Achieving this, in whatever form, will contribute to maintaining and even strengthening multilateral cooperation on trade.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, Global Political Economy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

79. Transnational Advocacy Networks. Twenty Years of Evolving Theory and Practice

Author:
César Rodríguez and Peter Evans
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
Activists, particularly those based in the global South, have accumulated a wealth of experience in dealing with a range of transnational networks operating in diverse issue areas. New theoretical understandings have reflected this accumulating experience. As the twentieth century came to a close, the practice of global and transnational politics was undergoing a sea change. Understandings of its dynamics were changing along with the practice. Classic paradigms of international relations, which had focused almost exclusively on relations among nation-states, were being expanded to consider the impact of transnational civil society organizations. Recognition of the role of new nonstate actors in global politics was epitomized by the impact of Margaret Keck and Kathryn Sikkink’s Activists beyond Borders in 1998. Their framework is a foundational reference point for the analyses of recent and future trends that are set out in this book. This volume brings together a set of ten essays by reflective activists who draw on their experience to provide new insights into what has been happening in the world of transnational advocacy, and by engaged academics who are committed to using the tools of their disciplines to contribute to the same agenda. The essays reflect not only the views of individual authors but also the collective dialogue among the authors at the workshop where the papers were originally presented in the spring of 2015.
Topic:
Civil Society, Non State Actors, Global Political Economy, Networks, and transnationalism
Political Geography:
Global South

80. Learning to Improve the Investment Climate for Economic Diversification: PDIA in Action in Sri Lanka

Author:
Matt Andrews, Duminda Ariyasinghe, Amara S. Beling, Peter Harrington, Tim McNaught, Fathima Nafla Niyas, Anisha Pooblan, Mahinda Ramanayake, H. Senavirathne, Upatissa Sirigampala, Renuka M. Weerakone, and W. A. F. Jayasiri Wijesooriya
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Many countries, like Sri Lanka, are trying to diversify their economies but often lack the capabilities to lead diversification programs. One of these capabilities relates to preparing the investment climate in the country. Many governments tackle this issue by trying to improve their scores on ‘Doing Business Indicators’ which measure performance on general factors affecting business globally (like how long it takes to open a business or pay taxes). Beyond these common indicators, however, investors face context specific challenges when working in countries like Sri Lanka that are not addressed in global indicators. Governments often lack the capabilities to identify and resolve such issues. This paper narrates a recent initiative to establish these capabilities in Sri Lanka. The initiative adopted a Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA) process, where a team of Sri Lankan officials worked with Harvard Center for International Development (CID) facilitators to build capabilities over a six-month period. The paper tells the story of this process, providing documented evidence of the progress over time (and describing thinking behind the PDIA process as well). The paper will be of interest to those thinking about the challenges associated with creating a climate that is investor or business friendly and to those interested in processes (like PDIA) focused on building state capability and fostering policy implementation.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Global Political Economy, and State
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

81. Learning to Engage New Investors for Economic Diversification: PDIA in Action in Sri Lanka

Author:
Matt Andrews, Duminda Ariyasinghe, Krishantha Britto, Peter Harrington, Nelson Kumaratunga, M.K.D. Lawrance, Tim McNaught, Hemadree Naotunna, Ganga Palaketiya, Anisha Pooblan, Dilip Sanmarasinghe, and Prasanjith Wijayathilake
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Many countries, like Sri Lanka, are trying to diversify their economies but often lack the capabilities to lead diversification programs. One of these capabilities relates to engaging new investors—in new sectors—to bring their FDI and know-how to a new country and kick-start new sources of activity. This paper narrates a recent (and ongoing) initiative to establish this kind of capability in Sri Lanka. The initiative adopted a Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA) process, where a team of Sri Lankan officials worked with Harvard Center for International Development (CID) facilitators to build capabilities over a six-month period. The paper tells the story of this process, providing documented evidence of the progress over time (and describing thinking behind the PDIA process as well). It shows how an investment engagement approach can emerge in a reasonably limited period, when a committed team of public officials are effectively authorized and engaged. The paper will be of particular interest to those thinking about investor engagement challenges and to those interested in processes (like PDIA) focused on building state capability and fostering policy implementation in public contexts.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economies, Global Political Economy, and Investment
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

82. Organ Transplants at Cedar Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, and the Third Industrial Revolution

Author:
Oenone Kubie, Christopher McKenna, and Steven Yamshon
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Oxford Centre for Global History
Abstract:
Cedars Sinai Hospital does not serve an everyday clientele. Situated in the West Hollywood neighbourhood in Los Angeles, the non-profit hospital caters to the rich and glamourous – a ‘hospital to the stars’. It was there that Madonna received hernia surgery and Frank Sinatra suffered a fatal heart attack. More recently, Kim Kardashian and Kanye West chose the hospital for the birth of their daughter. However, the hospital is famous for more than its celebrity patients. Cedars Sinai has a history of innovation and has often sought to be a world leader of medical research. In 2010, Tom Priselac, the long-time Chief Executive Officer of the Cedars Sinai Health System was presented with the opportunity to add to this history of innovation and establish a prestigious center for heart transplants at Cedars Sinai. To do so would position Cedars Sinai at the forefront of cardiac research. On the other hand, to establish the specialisation would require a huge investment which Priselac might better use elsewhere in the medical center. The decision required Priselac to consider the competitiveness of the hospital within the Los Angeles healthcare landscape, the logic of creating a specialisation, and the future of healthcare within a global economy.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Capitalism, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, California, and Los Angeles

83. Automate This: Building the Perfect 21st-Century Worker

Author:
Rachael Stephens
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Based on our review of skill shortages, growth trends, and labor market demands, Third Way has identified the four skillsets that will make people successful and resilient in the new economy. They are the personal skills and thinking skills that automation can’t easily replicate, the digital skills to work with new technology, and job-specific skills for sectors facing major labor shortages.
Topic:
International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

84. Follow the External (Balance of Payments) Breakevens of the Oil Exporters

Author:
Brad W. Setser
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The global impact of oil’s fall from $100 plus to under $50 a barrel has not gotten as much attention as I think it deserves. For most oil exporters, it has been a profound shock—one that forced such a massive contraction in imports that it pulled down global trade (far more than the trade remedies that tend to dominate the ‘trade” news). A few countries adjusted quickly and relatively efficiently (Russia), though not painlessly. A few have struggled to adapt—notably, because of its large external debt, poor policies, and growing political crisis, Venezuela.
Topic:
Oil and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

85. Southeast Asian Perspectives on U.S.–China Competition

Author:
Aaron Connely
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In April 2016, the Lowy Institute and the Council on Foreign Relations' International Institutions and Global Governance program held a workshop on Southeast Asian perspectives on U.S.–China competition, which informed this publication. That workshop was made possible in part by the generous support of the Robina Foundation. This report is a collaboration between the Lowy Institute and the Council on Foreign Relations. The views expressed in this report are entirely the authors' own and not those of the Lowy Institute, the Council on Foreign Relations, or the Robina Foundation.
Topic:
Governance and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and America

86. Managing a Smaller U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Author:
Jennifer Harris
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Comprising roughly 700 million barrels of crude oil stored in caverns throughout Texas and Louisiana, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was established by Congress in the mid-1970s in response to the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo and ensuing oil price shocks. Its purpose was to insulate the United States from crude oil supply disruptions. In the decades since, despite significant changes in global oil markets, the basic logic and design of the SPR have remained largely unchanged.
Topic:
Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
America

87. Interactive: Oil Exporters' External Breakeven Prices

Author:
Brad Sester and Cole Frank
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The 2014 fall in global oil prices, from over $100 a barrel to around $50 a barrel, reduced the export proceeds of the world’s main oil- and gas-exporting economies by about $1 trillion. After a decade of largely uninterrupted high oil prices, this dramatic swing has tested the economic resiliency and political adaptability of oil-exporting countries. One of the best single measures of the resilience of an oil- or gas-exporting economy is the oil price that covers its import bill—the external breakeven price.
Topic:
Oil and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
America

88. Geostrategic Implications of China’s Twin Economic Challenges

Author:
William Norris
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Chinese government has embarked on an effort to reorient its economy from an investment- and export-driven model toward one predicated on a larger role for consumption and market forces. At the same time, China is also experiencing a new normal of much slower economic growth. The economic downturn and concomitant structural shift in China’s economy has already begun affecting its foreign policy. Security, not economics, is becoming one of President Xi Jinping’s—and China’s—top strategic priorities.
Topic:
Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
China

89. Building Inclusive Economies How Women’s Economic Advancement Promotes Sustainable Growth

Author:
Gayle Tzemach Lemmon and Rachel B. Vogelstein
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The connection between women’s economic participation and prosperity is undeniable. Over the past two decades, a growing number of international organizations and world leaders have recognized that the economic empowerment of women is critical to economic growth and stability. Multilateral bodies such as the Group of Twenty and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum have ratified agreements to promote women in the economy as a means to stimulate growth, and governments from the Ivory Coast to Rwanda to Japan have adopted reforms to increase women’s ability to contribute to their economies
Topic:
Gender Issues and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

90. Smart Specialisation: championing the EU’s economic growth and investment agenda?

Author:
Alison Hunter
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Introduced as an ex ante conditionality in the 2014-2020 Cohesion Policy, Smart Specialisation Strategies (S3) require regions to develop smart priorities and direct investment efforts towards growth-oriented innovation. In the space of only four years, S3 has become widely regarded as a success story across the Cohesion Policy community, as a place-based driver of EU competitiveness. For some regions, it has offered scope to deepen existing practices. For others, S3 has introduced new approaches to achieving innovation-oriented growth. There is, however, quite some distance to cover if S3 is to accelerate its support role in delivering EU growth and investment. This would require redefining the role of S3 and re-positioning this in the post-2020 Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF).
Topic:
Europe Union and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

91. Why the EU will have an industrial policy – but not necessarily a good one

Author:
Fabian Zuleeg
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
How best to support its industry has been a perennial issue for the European Union (EU). The Commission’s approach has been an attempt to mainstream industrial competitiveness across policy areas. But this hardly constitutes an adequate strategic industrial policy. The EU and its members must recognise that current global pressures require a common and forward-looking approach to ensure that European industry can thrive.
Topic:
Financial Markets and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
European Union

92. The EU and Emerging Market Economies: Transformations and New Challenges

Author:
Juliane Schmidt
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The European Union and emerging market economies are facing a great variety of challenges and transformations in a rapidly changing world. They are important players on the world stage, working through and shaping the various multilateral organisations they are members of. The European Policy Centre (EPC), in cooperation with the Institute for the Scientific Advancement of the South (ISAS), has carried out a project that looked at the political, economic, and environmental interests of the EU and emerging market economies and considered the future of their cooperation in global governance. In order to shed light on the relationship between emerging market economies and the EU, the project focused on four key areas of multilateralism: climate change, trade, international financial institutions, and global governance in the security realm. This report reflects upon the outcomes of the project’s discussions, while also providing punctual updates.
Topic:
International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
European Union

93. Measuring and analyzing the impact of GVCs on economic development

Author:
David Dollar
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Global value chains (GVCs) break up the production process so different steps can be carried out in different countries. Many smart phones and televisions, for example, are designed in the United States or Japan. They have sophisticated inputs, such as semiconductors and processors, which are produced in the Republic of Korea or Chinese Taipei. And they are assembled in China. They are then marketed and receive after-sale servicing in Europe and the United States. These complex global production arrangements have transformed the nature of trade. But their complexity has also created difficulties in understanding trade and in formulating policies that allow firms and governments to capitalize on GVCs and to mitigate negative side effects.
Topic:
International Relations and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

94. Is a growing middle class good for the poor? Social policy in a time of globalization

Author:
Raj M. Desai and Homi Kharas
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Does an expanding middle class benefit society’s poorest? Much has been written recently about the rapid growth of the middle class as well as the rapid fall in absolute poverty (Kharas 2017; Kocharand Oates 2015; Burrows 2015). However, few studies seek to link these two trends. It is worth emphasizing at the outset that a growing middle class and a falling poverty rate are not simply two sides of the same coin; there is a large “vulnerable” (or near poor) cohort between the poorest individuals and the middle class. Additionally, the trends can be quite different. In the United States, for example, the percentage of middle-class households has steadily fallen since the 1970s, while the portion of households in the lowest income brackets has remained steady (Kochhar,Fry, and Rohal 2015). Similar trends have occurred in the European Union since the early 2000s (ILO 2015). By contrast, in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, most of those lifted out of poverty appear to have joined the ranks of the vulnerable rather than the middle class (Calvo-Gonzalez 2017; Chandy 2015). There, the middle class has stagnated despite reductions in poverty.
Topic:
International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

95. Multilateralism under stress

Author:
Homi Kharas
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The multilateral development system, led by the United States, has guided development cooperation by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, evolving gradually through new institutions and new norms since World War II. Organized by a small group of like-minded countries, multilateralism has been a way of managing burden-sharing among donors and of delivering public goods. These functions are now under stress. According to a poll conducted in December 2016 by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland, most Americans (59.3 percent) support the statement that “when giving foreign aid, it is best for the U.S. to participate in international efforts, such as through the United Nations. This way it is more likely that other countries will do their fair share and that these ef- forts will be better coordinated.” However, a majority of Republican voters disagree, believing that it is better for the U.S. to provide aid on its own, to ensure control over how money is spent and to gain recognition for its generosity.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

96. The Future of Trade

Author:
Rohinton P. Medhora
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Critical reviews of hard-hitting commentaries on urgent global issues are published periodically by Project Syndicate as part of their Issue Adviser series. In the latest instalment, below, the president of the Centre for International Governance Innovation assesses the populist threat to globalization and international trade and considers arguments by economists such as Kaushik Basu, Jeffrey Frankel, Laura Tyson and other commentators
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

97. What Drives Turkey’s Intensified Off shore Oil and Gas Exploration?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Turkey has recently launched vigorous e orts to increase its domestic oil and natural gas produc- tion to meet its domestic demands. The ongoing problem of reliance on energy imports to meet the majority of its increasing demand has be- come a key determinant in Turkey’s foreign pol- icy. It is even driving the country’s push towards convergence with the world’s biggest two gas ex- porters, especially Russia.
Topic:
International Relations and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey

98. After Paris A Climate Agenda that Serves U.S. Interests

Author:
David F. Gordon, Divya P. Reddy, and Elizabeth Rosenberg
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
The dust is now settling on President Donald Trump’s controversial decision to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. This decision was a foreign policy mistake. It will make sustaining American credibility more difficult in other multilateral institutions and settings. It will exacerbate anti-American sentiment in Europe, making trans-Atlantic leadership collaboration more difficult well beyond climate policy. On climate, it threatens to undermine the balance achieved in Paris between the centralized and top-down approach favored by the Europeans and the more decentralized and market-friendly approach of the United States, which was supported by China. As a result, it also could lead to the creation of an uneven playing field for U.S. businesses.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

99. The Political Economy of Carbon Pricing Policy Design

Author:
Joseph E. Aldy
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper examines the choice between—and design of—CO2 cap-and-trade and tax policies through a political-economy lens. It draws from insights in economics and political economy to highlight important public policy principles and policy options in carbon-pricing policy design. The paper illustrates each of these insights with examples from cap-and-trade and tax-policy experiences. Revealed political preferences about carbon-pricing-policy design can, in practice, inform our understanding of how decision-makers weigh various policy principles, as well as policy objectives. The balance of the paper examines the following design choices: establishing and phasing-in policy targets; setting the point of compliance and scope of coverage; addressing uncertainties in emission and cost outcomes under carbon pricing; updating carbon-pricing targets over time; using revenue and other forms of economic value created by carbon pricing; mitigating adverse competitiveness impacts of pricing carbon; accounting for the existing, complex policy landscape in designing carbon pricing; and linking of carbon-pricing programs. The final section concludes with a discussion of policy implications and next steps for policy-relevant scholarship.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Climate Finance, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

100. Market Mechanisms and the Paris Agreement

Author:
Robert Stavins and Robert Stowe
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The Harvard Project on Climate Agreements has released a volume of seventeen briefs summarizing research on options for elaborating the Paris Agreement's Article 6, the evolution of market-based systems, and how these two processes might best support each other. The briefs are designed to be readily accessible — and, it is hoped, useful — to negotiators, policy makers, and other stakeholders, as they consider how to elaborate the Paris Agreement in order to realize its potential to effectively address global climate change. Most authors were participants in a research workshop conducted by the Harvard Project on July 6, 2017, and the volume builds upon the discussions in that forum. Participants included twenty of the world's leading researchers focusing on market mechanisms and the Paris Agreement, coming from the disciplines of economics, political science, international relations, and law — and based in Europe, the Republic of Korea, and the United States.
Topic:
International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus