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11. The Impact of the EAEU-Iran Preferential Trade Agreement

Author:
Amat Adarov and Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The preferential trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Iran on mutual trade entered into force in October 2019. In this report we estimate its expected impact at aggregate and sectoral levels using the gravity model of trade based on the global sample of bilateral trade flows at the HS 6-digit level. The analysis suggests that the implementation of the agreement will boost mutual trade for both trading partners, with relatively greater gains expected for the EAEU’s exports to Iran. On aggregate, the total gains in mutual trade are estimated to reach almost USD 46 million, with exports from the EAEU to Iran expected to increase by 9.7%, compared with a rise in exports from Iran to the EAEU of up to 4%. The difference in the impact will also be significant across the five EAEU countries as well as across sectors, with the major export gains expected to accrue in the chemicals and agri-food sectors, especially trade in miscellaneous fruits and vegetables, as well as in the textile, polymer production and metals sectors.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Global Political Economy, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Iran, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Belarus

12. Forecasting exchange rates of major currencies with long maturity forward rates

Author:
Zsolt Darvas and Zoltan Schepp
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results based upon a new model which approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Global Political Economy, and Exchange Rate Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. FDI another day: Russian reliance on European investment

Author:
Marta Dominguez-Jimenez and Niclas Poitiers
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Most foreign direct investment into Russia originates in the European Union: European investors own between 55 percent and 75 percent of Russian FDI stock. This points to a Russian dependence on European investment, making the EU paramount for Russian medium-term growth. Even if we consider ‘phantom’ FDI that transits through Europe, the EU remains the primary investor in Russia. Most phantom FDI into Russia is believed to originate from Russia itself and thus is by construction not foreign.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Governance, Sanctions, European Union, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

14. Unexpected Guests? The Soviet Union and the History of Global Capitalism: An Interview with Oscar Sanchez-Sibony

Author:
Oscar Sanchez-Sibony
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:
Capitalism versus Communism. To many, the latter half of the twentieth history was deeply shaped by the confrontation between these two ideological and socioeconomic systems. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, capitalism's triumph was credited to its valorization of money and protection of markets, among other factors; and, as the story continues, Communists failed, in part, because they suppressed markets and globalization. Yet, how much of this historical picture holds true? To Oscar Sanchez-Sibony, a good deal of Cold War histories are founded on generally held misconceptions about the political economy of the Soviet Union. Not only do they ignore the intense engagements between the Soviets and the world, they often miss the mark by neglecting the larger financial and economic architecture that facilitated such exchanges and economic growth in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). There is a larger story to be told about the rise of global capitalism and the Soviet Union. These are the themes of Red Globalization: The Political Economy of the Soviet Cold War from Stalin to Khrushchev (2014). Making use of archival documents from Russian archives, Sanchez-Sibony provides a rich account of how a young Bolshevik state navigated through the world's economic crises, while seeking favorable trading partners in the West for investments. This interview also ventures into topics and figures such as Depression Stalinism, Anastas Mikoyan, and Soviet-Global South relations. This book provoked much debate, and will be a must-read for years to come for anyone interested in histories of the Soviet Union, global capitalism, and the global Cold War. Oscar Sanchez-Sibony is Assistant Professor of History at the University of Hong Kong, where he teaches and researches subjects in Soviet history, Stalinism, and capitalism. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago under the guidance of Sheila Fitzpatrick. Toynbee Foundation had the pleasure to talk with him about his career and the development of his research.
Topic:
Cold War, Communism, Globalization, History, Capitalism, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

15. The Impact of COVID-19 on World Economy and China’s Role

Author:
Xu Xiujun
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Recent years have seen more countries to experience “three lows and three highs” problems. The pandemic triggered the exposure of these accumulated risks, leading to a slump in world economic growth. Given the developing trend of world economy amid the ongoing pandemic, the world may face a range of challenges for a long time to go, e.g. insufficient momentum for economic growth, increased resistance for market opening and rising debt risks. As the world economy suffers a major hit, China has been active in providing the international community with the assistance needed to combat the COVID-19 and recover the economy, while China’s economy itself has shown strong resilience and stability. In the long run, the pandemic will not change the sound momentum of China’s economic development; rather, it will provide an opportunity for China to play a significant role in the world economy.
Topic:
Economy, Global Political Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

16. How ‘demos’ met ‘cracy’: debt, inequality, money

Author:
Andreas Antoniades and Ugo Panizza
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
The recurrence of ever more destructive economic crises and patterns of pervasive indebtedness and inequality threaten the social fabric of our societies. Our main responses to these trends have been partial, focusing on symptoms rather than causes, often exacerbating rather than improving the underlying socio-economic dynamics. To reflect on these conditions and on ‘what needs to be done’ this paper turns to a similar socio-economic malaise faced by the city-state of Athens in the 6th century BC. Most historical studies dealing with this crisis focus on the comprehensive debt relief policy (seisachteia) implemented by Solon. We argue that this debt relief, although necessary, was the least important of Solon’s reforms. Solon read the problem of debt as a problem of money so he went on to reform the monetary and exchange system. But he did not think that these reforms alone could restore socioeconomic sustainability. For this, a redefinition of what was counted as valuable economic activity and as income had also to take place. And for all these to work, citizens had to be involved more in the commons. Far from only achieving socioeconomic sustainability, these reforms gave rise gradually to the demos that we meet in the golden age of Democracy. It is indeed interesting that Democracy, in its ideal type of the 5th century BC, finds its origin in the way in which a society responded to a major socioeconomic crisis, characterised by pervasive indebtedness and destabilising inequalities. Such a broader historical horizon may help us grasp better the problems, stakes and challenges of our times.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, History, Democracy, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Greece and Global Focus

17. The China Trade Challenge: Phase II

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
China’s fast-paced economic rise and defiance of globally accepted market rules—along with the growing and yet unknown economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19)—are driving the next phase of US-China trade negations to the top of the nation’s post-election agenda. While the Phase I US-China trade deal has eased tension, it also set the stage for discussions on other important economic disputes, including forced technology transfer, cyber theft of intellectual property (IP), industrial policies, state subsidies, and new technology, according to a new Solutions Brief, The China Trade Challenge: Phase II, by the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED).
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Global Markets, Economy, Global Political Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

18. 5G Technological Leadership

Author:
Hudson Institute
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
As the promise of the next-generation mobile communications technology becomes clearer, policymakers are increasingly focusing on the technological and policy foundations of 5G leadership. The mobile revolution has already delivered unimagined benefits the world over from innovative apps delivering healthcare services to remote villages in developing countries to the equally innovative development of the “sharing economy” with Uber and Airbnb. 5G promises to go even further. It will not be merely a marginal improvement over the previous generations of cellular standards but will instead bring what many have called the “next industrial revolution.”1 5G will make everything more interconnected and efficient—from financial services to national defense to power grids to basic utilities provided in smart cities. Estimates predict that by 2035 5G will contribute over $13.2 trillion to the global economy.2 Given the importance that 5G will have for the US innovation economy, policymakers have focused on promoting and securing 5G leadership. They have also become concerned about the national security implications of 5G leadership for at least two reasons. First, they are concerned about economic and other vulnerabilities being exploited by potential adversaries via foreign entities manufacturing or owning the underlying physical infrastructure.3 Second, they are concerned about the national security implications of simply falling behind in technological leadership as such.4 In sum, 5G technological leadership matters both for economic growth and for national security. The policy discussion about 5G leadership, though, has been mired in confusion. 5G represents a complex technological and commercial ecosystem, and commentary about 5G leadership has been misdirected by mistaken assumptions. In the interest of promoting policy discussions grounded in the proper technological and economic evidence, this Statement highlights two essential facts that must inform all discussions about 5G leadership: (1) 5G hardware and infrastructure is only one of the many layers of a much larger 5G ecosystem, and (2) patent counting is an unreliable methodology to identify the leading 5G technological innovators.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Communications, Leadership, Global Political Economy, and 5G
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Coronavirus Crisis Accelerating Reconsideration of Supply Chains

Author:
Yoshiaki Takayama
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, international interdependence is changing. The current international political situation, characterized by harsh power politics, and the current state of the international economy, in which states with different values ​​are economically connected, are leading to reconsideration of international supply chains. Understanding international supply chains is extremely important in looking at the prospects for the global political economy. The purpose of this comment is to explore the trends and implications of reconsidering supply chains.
Topic:
Politics, Global Political Economy, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Growth Models and the Footprint of Transnational Capital

Author:
Patrick Kaczmarczyk
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The definition of various growth models is the latest innovation of comparative capitalism (CC) research. Yet, the literature has its weaknesses in explaining the dynamics within and the interdependencies between different growth models. I argue that this weakness stems inter alia from an inadequate conceptualization of transnational corporations (TNCs). I provide empirical evidence on the footprint of international capital in the global economy and outline how including TNCs as a unit of analysis can help us to better understand economic outcomes. This leads to several implications for the growth models literature, which I conclude my argument with.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Global Political Economy, Economic Growth, Transnational Actors, Multinational Corporations, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus