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2052. Russia Studies in the U.S.: From academic ghetto to political mainstream
- Author:
- Pavel Koshkin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- After the victory of republican Donald Trump at the 2016 presidential election followed by the series of probes into the Kremlin’s alleged meddling in the American domestic affairs, Russia turned into political mainstream in the U.S. However, the revived interest toward this country failed to translate into increasing funding of Russia Studies programs. And here is why.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Academia, and Area Studies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
2053. Three milestones of Russia’s foreign policy in 2017
- Author:
- Pavel Koshkin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- 2017 brought both successes and disappointments to Russia on the international arena. Moscow succeeded in establishing dialogue with its rivals in the Middle East — Saudi Arabia and Turkey. It also participated in the Astana peace talks to come up with a compromise with Ankara and Tehran on Syria. Besides, Russia together with its Syrian allies defeated the Islamic State of Iraq and the Greater Syria (ISIS). Afterwards, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced about the partial withdrawal of the Russian troops from Syria. One of the biggest challenges became the strengthening of the American sanctions against Russia for its alleged interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The Russia dossier probe conducted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller and Congress is also a very important event, because it could deepen the crisis in U.S.-Russia relations. Parliamentary and presidential elections in Europe also matter: They took place amidst the buzz about the Russian cyber threat and hackers, and this indicates that there is not trust toward Russia in European countries today.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Elections, Islamic State, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
2054. Difficult Context – Bright Prospects. Outcomes of Russian Parliamentarians’ Visit to Serbia
- Author:
- Alexander Pivovarenko
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- May 5, Vyacheslav Volodin, the State Duma’s Speaker, paid a significant visit to Serbia for working negotiations with President-Elect Aleksandar Vučić, acting Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić, President of the National Assembly Maja Gojkovic, Serbian Orthodox Church Patriarch Irinej and other officials. The parliamentary delegation’s trip came at a difficult time. Montenegro’s accession to NATO and internal political changes in Macedonia are reconfiguring the military and political landscape of the region. All the events are unfolding amid a massive information campaign mounted by the mass media and Western pundits capitalizing on the issue of Russian influence in the Balkans, with yet another information attack being launched on the day of Volodin’s visit. Moreover, Russia’s relations with Montenegro have reached their lowest point over the past year. In its turn, Serbia is completing the phase of consolidation of Vučić’s regime. The agenda includes the creation of a new government, which may require new parliamentary elections. It is noteworthy that the President-Elect, however, fails to command total popular support. At the same time, Vučić is singled out for allegations and fierce criticism for embracing Euro-Atlantic integration. When it comes to Russia’s assets and liabilities in the Balkans, Volodin’s stay in Serbia, therefore, was of particular importance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Parliamentarism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Serbia, and Montenegro
2055. Trump’s Political Future: the Russia Factor
- Author:
- Nikolay Pakhomov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- The US Constitution vests the president, the head of the executive branch, with considerable power to formulate the country’s foreign policy. Regardless of the proactive stance of some Congressmen in dealing with external issues, America’s foreign policy has historically been shaped by presidents, their temperament, experience, ideological leanings, and quite often it has been affected by their domestic policy. The latter can be central to understanding and forecasting the Trump administration’s steps related to Russia. Nowadays only the elites can initiate and introduce changes in the US-Russian interaction. Economic cooperation is also limited.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Donald Trump, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
2056. NATO-Russia Relations: Overcoming Agony
- Author:
- Akop Gabrielyan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- ANALYSISOPINION NATO-Russia Relations: Overcoming Agony 17.07.2017Featured Image Akop A. Gabrielyan – the founder and the leader of the “Consensus” youth NGO, expert in the policy of the post-soviet states. If anything, the central tenet of the Hippocratic oath: first do no harm – Primum non nocere – is the first motto to be applied to today’s dialogue between Russia and NATO, a military and political organization. The dialogue essentially boiling down to interaction between Russia and the United States, the alliance’s leader, has offered fewer grounds for optimism over the years. Noticeably worse relations, whose downward spiraling trend is too serious a phenomenon to be even referred to as “the Cold War”, are degenerating into an agony. This is testified by some experts predicting an unavoidable military conflict and a real deterioration in the situation amid the Ukraine and Syria conflicts that Russia and NATO (the US) treat differently. For instance, Moscow officially suspended a deal with the US to prevent mid-air collisions over Syria in response to America’s attitude towards April’s deadly chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib province.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and United States of America
2057. A war of narratives: a comparative map on how the leading US and Russian newspapers reported the first meeting between Trump and Putin
- Author:
- Fernanda Magnotta and Roman Chukov
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- Last Friday, during the G20 summit, the US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for the first time. The meeting was surrounded by expectations and marked by all types of speculation. The bilateral relationship has been controversial since the Obama administration, but the polemics have gained momentum in last year’s election when Trump came to power. Trump’s agenda becomes even more critical as he has been waging a war on the American media since the campaign. Trump popularized the term “fake news” by accusing the CNN network of making up facts, and made the “post-truth” concept the word of the year of 2016, according to Oxford University. In addition, he decided to communicate directly with the American society through Twitter not to depend on the curatorship of the country’s major media outlets.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Media, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
2058. Donald Trump is America’s Boris Yeltsin. What The Two Presidents Have In Common
- Author:
- Nikolay Pakhomov
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- When US President Trump on August 2 signed a bill that reinforces and expands to some extent sanctions on Moscow, the anti-Russian campaign emerged somewhat divorced from real policy-making. The bill has clarified the Congress position on the matter, with the ongoing investigation into Trump’s and his acolytes’ alleged ties with Russia shifting public attention to the legal aspect. While lambasting Trump, some intellectuals seek to establish nominal correlations between the US president and Russia and to draw historical parallels between the two countries. This clearly creative approach on the part of experts and pundits produces remarkable results.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, History, Donald Trump, and Boris Yeltsin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
2059. Nation-Branding: the Case of Russia
- Author:
- Anna Velikaya
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- Russia seems to have finally realized in recent years that nation branding, seen as a set of actions to improve country’s image abroad, is a form of investment, not a cost. In order to analyze the Russian approach to nation branding, it is necessary to highlight several dimensions: economic, scientific, cultural, sport, media, and development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Public Opinion, Economy, Soft Power, and Cultural Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
2060. Contradictions of “Gray Zone” Conflict
- Author:
- Lada Kochtcheeva
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- With the advance of globalization, the spread of new technologies and communication, diffusion of power to non-state actors, as well as the emergence of new forms of rivalry and statecraft, the concept of “gray zone” conflict has very recently produced substantial debates in the US and internationally. Most analysts do not view this phenomenon as entirely new, but they distinguish certain characteristics of gray zone and argue that it will progressively depict and challenge the international system in the near future. The gray zone form of conflict is usually defined by the presence of several crucial elements including rising revisionist states that seek to alter some aspect of the existing, status quo international order, incremental or gradual strategy often ambiguous, and unconventional tools, which are short of outright war. Actors using a gray zone method strive to achieve their goals while minimizing the scope and scale of actual fighting[3]. Russia’s actions in Eastern Europe are often described by the theorists of gray zone conflict as using multi-instrument strategies while employing direct action. China’s use of incremental approaches to produce a critical basis for its claims in the South China Sea also represents a prominent example of the gray zone conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Globalization, Conflict, and Gray Zone
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eastern Europe, and United States of America
2061. Pragmatism and Common Sense – No Margin for Error
- Author:
- Maxim A. Suchkov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- The American military strike on a Syrian airbase has rather demonstrated President Trump’s burning desire to adopt a more hawkish stance – both at home and abroad – than has been launched merely in retaliation for the terrible chemical attack. At home, it was a gimmick to consolidate his position in Congress, secure bipartisan support (primarily GOP’s approval), cement his voting base, and shed the image of the Kremlin’s lackey, which has increasingly been weakening his presidential mandate and left little room for political maneuver. Moreover, this step was due to receive the approbation of the major “domestic sponsors”, including the military-industrial complex, the oil industry, and financiers. Finally, it can be treated as the comeback of the “strong leader”, the translation of Trump’s election pledge into a policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Conflict, Syrian War, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
2062. Dancing for the Cameras while Europe and Syria Burns
- Author:
- Matthew Crosston
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had a brief visit at the White House on Wednesday, April 12, 2017, which was followed by all of the typical press conferences and media interviews expressing new found agreement and harmony. It is yet another example in the Presidency of Donald Trump where explicitly bold and brash campaign trail criticism ended up not just softened but utterly reversed.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Syria
2063. The lessons of the Annual Crisis
- Author:
- Ilya Dyachkov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- Occasional escalations on the Korean Peninsula each time are hotly debated in mass media, but can hardly surprise experts. Typically, difficult periods start in spring and there are several reasons for that. Exactly at this time the United States and the Republic of Korea usually conduct a joint exercise. This fact cannot but bother the DPRK. By the way, the scale of the maneuvers becomes larger every year: for instance, the personnel can practice such operation as seizure of Pyongyang. One more reason is connected with the actions and statements of North Korea itself. The North Korean missile launches, making Seoul and Tokyo nervous, usually “fall” exactly on May or April.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Crisis Management, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, and United States of America
2064. Designing Our Secure Future: Inaugural Convening, Ottawa, Canada
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Our Secure Future
- Abstract:
- Our Secure Future (OSF) believes that women’s full participation in society makes the crucial difference in achieving more effective governance and lasting peace. OSF aims to strengthen the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) movement by amplifying women’s voices, strengthening the global network of women peacebuilders, and promoting committed action by multiple stakeholders to turn policy into practice. Founded in 2016 with a mission to strengthen the Women, Peace and Security movement to enable effective policy-related decision-making for a more just and peaceful world, we set out to understand how best to achieve our vision of achieving a more peaceful future transformed by women’s full participation. After a series of consultations with multiple stakeholders in the WPS field during the summer and fall of 2016, we found that the issues of developing a shared vision for the Women, Peace and Security agenda and collaborating on common narratives were recurrently named as being critical to making progress in this field. The overwhelming feedback pointed to the nee
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Gender Issues, Women, and WPS
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
2065. Opportunities and Challenges for Mozambique From the Indian Expansion in Africa
- Author:
- Hetalben Haribhai Patel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper is organized in four main sections. The first one describes the economic relationships between India and Mozambique in the last five years taking into account the bilateral commercial and investment relationships in private and energy sectors. Apart from trade and investments, the first section of this work also presents data on the credit lines opened by India and their allocation in different projects in Mozambique and the donations made by the Indian government. The second section of the paper analyses the opportunities that India’s approximation represents for Mozambique in different areas, since India’s economic growth and its interest in Mozambican resources and location enable cooperation to flourish and the development of strategic areas in Mozambique such as education, health and infrastructure. Even though, the opportunities can only be fully reached when the states become sufficiently prepared with strategic policies and specialized institutions on India. That way, the third section of the paper presents the main challenges that this opportunity represents for the Mozambican State. With the completion of this article, we hope to answer the following question: what are the opportunities and challenges for Mozambique from the Indian Expansion to Africa?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economic Growth, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Asia, India, and Mozambique
2066. From Mandela to Zuma: The Importance of the Southern Atlantic Region for South Africa’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Anselmo Otavio
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- As it is known, Ceuta’s conquest by Portugal in 1415 initiated the discovery and, consequently, strategic transformation of the Southern Atlantic region by European powers. It is important to consider, first, that these actions were a process, since from the 14th century the necessary conditions for maritime expansion were being created by Portugal. Secondly, the arrival at Ceuta represented not the end, but the beginning of a phase marked by the search for an alternative maritime route that would connect Europe to India and would grant the Portuguese Crown access to spices from India’s territory. Although this process was initiated by Portugal, it is a fact that, throughout the centuries, countries like Spain, the Netherlands and England have also pursued the same development. From then, the territories belonging to the South Atlantic coast have been impacted by European powers, since, due to colonization, they were encompassed by different political and economic dynamics. While Lisbon connected Brazilian and Angolan territories through a relationship based on the purchase and sale of slave labor, the Netherlands at first, England later, comprised the Cape Colony to the Afro-Asian dynamic, keeping this territory’s interactions circumscribed to their respective colonies in the Asian side.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, History, and Colonialism
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, and Portugal
2067. Iran-Africa Relations: Opportunities and Prospects for Iran
- Author:
- Fátima Chimarizeni
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- In a political world featured by many sorts of alliances, Iran has sought the gathering of power in order to defend itself from economic sanctions imposed upon it by United States of America along with other members of the United Nations such as United Kingdom, France, Russia and China. Its turn towards Africa was one of the way-out strategies taken by Ahmadinejad in order to overcome the negative economic impact originated from the sanctions. Nonetheless, the rise to power of a leadership seemingly more turned to solve the nuclear issue directly with the Western states places the Iran-Africa Relationship in a fragile condition considering Iran’s foreign policy priorities.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iran, and Middle East
2068. Brexit, the EU and Strategic Uncertainties: Short, Medium and Long Term Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Yoslán Silverio González
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- The European Union (EU) has been a fundamental actor in the economic and political relations with the African countries. EU’s foreign policy towards Africa has been particularly affected by French and British colonial past. The history of the economic relations between the European Economic Community (EEC) and the African continent has been shaped by a series of multilateral agreements – the Yaoundé Conventions, adopted under French influence, and the Lomé Conventions, starting on 1975 –, and, with the entry of the UK in the EEC (1973), the community had to renegotiate the ancient commercial agreements to incorporate the former British territories as “beneficiaries” of these agreements
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Africa, and Europe
2069. 6 Steps the Trump Administration Should Take in Iraq
- Author:
- Andrew Kim, Daniel Benaim, and Hardin Lang
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- The ongoing battle to retake Iraq from the Islamic State, or IS, also known as ISIS or ISIL, is one of the most dynamic foreign policy challenges that the Trump administration confronts as it takes office. A fierce fight is underway to recapture Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, with American soldiers operating near the frontlines of a bewilderingly complicated battle space. Major questions remain regarding how Mosul will be stabilized and governed once the city is liberated, and how a still-fractured Iraq can approach the enduring challenge of national reconciliation. President Donald Trump has issued a new executive order requesting an anti-IS strategy in 30 days.1 But the new president has already undercut America’s position in Iraq through his words and deeds. He has repeated his campaign calls for the United States to take Iraq’s oil as spoils of war, including in front of a memorial to fallen Central Intelligence Agency, or CIA, officers.2 And his first major action related to Iraq—an executive order restricting Iraqis’ travel to America—insults the nation’s Iraqi partners who have been at the frontline of the fight against IS and weakens U.S. influence in Iraq.3 The Trump administration’s reckless rhetoric on Iran, including Trump’s accusation that Iran is “taking over more and more of Iraq,” undercuts the anti-IS campaign and undermines broader efforts to counter Iran’s malign regional influence.4 The 2003 Iraq war ended a U.S. policy of dual containment of Iran and Iraq, and the fallout from the Iraq war contributed to Iran’s rising influence across the region. More than a decade later, however, Iraqi nationalism remains strong, and the recent enhanced U.S.-Iraqi cooperation in countering IS has helped reaffirm Iraq as an independent actor not beholden to any other regional forces, including Iran. Trump’s saber-rattling against Iran risks making Iraq a battleground for the United States and Iran. It heightens the chances of conflict between U.S. troops and Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militants—an outcome that would set back the campaign against IS and quickly wear out America’s welcome in Iraq. The time is now for President Trump to change course and set a more responsible path for U.S.-Iraqi relations. His team will confront policy decisions in its first 100 days that will have consequences for years to come. The good news is that the new administration inherits an anti-IS campaign with considerable momentum. President Barack Obama left behind a global coalition on the cusp of a major military victory in Mosul.5 With U.S. and coalition support, Iraqis have already liberated most of their country and are now degrading remaining IS sanctuaries.6 Trump’s challenge will be to correct his early missteps, see the last administration’s effort through to its conclusion, and chart a stable course for post-IS Iraq. To this end, the Trump administration should take the following six steps.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and ISIS
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
2070. U.S.-Indonesia and U.S.-Malaysia Relations in the Trump Era
- Author:
- Brian Harding and Trevor Sutton
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- Since President Donald Trump took office, East Asia has rapidly emerged as one of both his and his foreign policy advisers’ key geographic focuses. To date, most of Trump’s attention has been on Northeast Asia—particularly China and North Korea. By contrast, the White House has offered little in the way of a policy vision for Southeast Asia, where engagement so far has largely focused on gaining Southeast Asian support for policy regarding North Korea’s nuclear program. Yet even with Washington on autopilot with the region, U.S. ties with some Southeast Asian states are already changing. Specifically, the Islamophobic rhetoric and policies of Trump’s campaign and the early days of his administration have already caused significant damage to perceptions of the United States and its government among the region’s more than 230 million Muslims, the vast majority of whom live in its two Muslim-majority nations—Indonesia and Malaysia.1 In April, the authors visited Jakarta, Indonesia, and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and met with leading political analysts, public opinion experts, businesspeople, and government officials to get on-the-ground insight into how the general public and elites in Indonesia and Malaysia view the Trump administration and what those views might mean for U.S. bilateral relations. While it is too early for substantial polling data to be available, it is clear that opinions of the United States are declining among the general public in both countries.2 However, based on the authors’ conversations with officials and leading nongovernment analysts, it also appears that U.S.-Indonesian and U.S.-Malaysian government to government relations are unlikely to deteriorate significantly in the immediate future. But the reasons why bilateral relations are likely to remain stable may also damage U.S. interests in the long run.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Leadership, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
2071. Trump Foreign Policy Impact in the Caucasus: Projecting Azerbaijan-USA relations for the next four years and beyond
- Author:
- Ahmed Alili
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- On 20th January, Donald John Trump, an American businessman and TV entertainer is going to be 45th President of the United States of America (US). This is a hard-to-be comprehended statement by the academic and research communities, who did not expect the result of the US presidential elections to turn out this way. The possibility of Trump’s victory was repeatedly denied by the major research centres, and each scandal encouraged researchers to re-state their predictions on the soon-to-be collapse of the Trump election campaign. Needless to say, these predictions were proven false by the final election results. Nevertheless, in the end, the academic and policy research communities have not produced research on what Trump’s presidency would look like. The same stands true for the foreign governments of the EU, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. In order to figure out who is the new US President and what he can do, the world has entered into a phase of intensive research on Trump. This paper is an attempt to puzzle out Trump’s foreign policy for the Caucasus and Azerbaijan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Theory, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- America and Azerbaijan
2072. Creating Cohesive, Coherent Immigration Policy
- Author:
- Pia M. Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- US immigration policy has serious limitations, particularly when viewed from an economic perspective. Some shortcomings arise from faulty initial design, others from the inability of the system to adapt to changing circumstances. In either case, a reluctance to confront politically difficult decisions is often a contributing factor to the failure to craft laws that can stand the test of time. We argue that, as a result, some key aspects of US immigration policy are incoherent and mutually contradictory — new policies are often inconsistent with past policies and undermine their goals. Inconsistency makes policies less effective because participants in the immigration system realize that lawmakers face powerful incentives to revise policies at a later date. US policies regarding unauthorized immigration, temporary visas, and humanitarian migrants offer examples of incoherence and inconsistency. This article explores key features of an integrated, coherent immigration policy from an economic perspective and how policymakers could better attempt to achieve policy consistency across laws and over time.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- America
2073. The Human Cost of IIRIRA — Stories From Individuals Impacted by the Immigration Detention System
- Author:
- Saba Ahmed, Adina Appelbaum, and Rachel Jordan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- The 1996 passage of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA) has had a devastating impact on immigrants who are detained, indigent, and forced to face deportation proceedings without representation (pro se). In the past 20 years, immigration detention has grown exponentially and a criminal–immigration detention– deportation pipeline has developed as a central function of the immigration system. Despite the growing specter of the “criminal alien” in the American psyche, there is little public knowledge or scrutiny of the vast immigration detention and deportation machine. Enforcement of IIRIRA has effectively erased human stories and narrowed immigration debates to numbers and statistics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- America
2074. Tolerating the “Intolerable Partner:” Once Shunned, Bulgaria’s United Patriots Joins the Governing Coalition
- Author:
- John R. Haines
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Several weeks after winning a plurality in Bulgaria’s late March parliamentary election, Prime Minister Boyko Borissov did something unprecedented: he brought the nationalist United Patriots (Obedineni Patrioti) into his coalition government. The United Patriots is an electoral alliance of three parties, the IMRO[2]-Bulgarian National Movement (VMRO-Bulgarsko Natsionalno Dvizhenie), the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria (Natzionalen Front za Spasenie na Bulgaria), and Attack (Attaka). Their inclusion in the coalition government has given rise to concern among Bulgaria’s NATO allies (and many Bulgarian themselves) about what the Bulgarian Socialist Party’s Korneliya Ninova called Mr. Borissov’s “floating majority, his unprincipled alliance”[3] (plavashti mnozinstva, bezprintsipni sŭyuzi). That concern is well placed for several reasons. Only a few years ago, even the nationalist IMRO-BND and NFSB excluded the radical Ataka[4] from their electoral alliance dubbed the “Patriotic Front” (Patriotichen front) because of Ataka’s positions on Russia and NATO. Even then, however, the Patriotic Front’s “nationalist profile” (natsionalisticheskiyat profil) was so far to Bulgaria’s political right to cause Mr. Borissov to exclude the Patriotic Front from his coalition government. He did so with the active encouragement of his center-right European People’s Party allies across the European Union. “Nothing against the PF, but unfortunately the things Valeri Simeonov [a PF leader, more about whom anon] proposes do not correspond to our Euro-Atlantic orientation,” said Mr. Borissov at the time.[5]
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Bulgaria
2075. Political Relations Between Turkey and Georgia in the Post-Soviet Era
- Author:
- Fatih Mehmet Sayin and Murat Doğan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Georgia and Turkey have become important partners in the Caucasus region after the independence of Georgia in 1991. Two countries preferred to follow pro-West policies in their foreign policy against the Russian factor. They have geopolitical importance and geostrategic location for Russia throughout history. This article analyzes the foreign policies of Georgia and Turkey and examines the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline as a common foreign policy between them. The paper found out that this kind of project between Georgia and Turkey would make them important actors rising from the regional level to the global level in the future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Oil, History, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, Georgia, and Mediterranean
2076. Shift of Power from West to East and Rise of China
- Author:
- Mushtaq Ahmed Abbasi and Nazir Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The US Exit Strategy 2014 from Afghanistan has now entered one of their final phase, which happens to be the Withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US has already lessened its troops, though there were certain changes after Trump came to power. But still there is a looming confusion which exists regarding the aftermath of the event. That is how this Withdrawal will come to play and what would the Afghanistan’s post-US withdrawal would look like. Moreover, Pakistan will also be affected in more than one ways. The US is going to be leaving quite a vacuum upon which many regional and foreign powers have set their eyes on. India, Iran, China and Russia are all going to be a part of the post-US Afghanistan but this might only produce more instability. Moreover, it will have drastic security, political and strategic implications for Pakistan. The picture which comes to the mind is going to be of an everlasting loop of security complexes and strategic undertones after the withdrawal.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Al Qaeda, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, North America, and United States of America
2077. US Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Implications for Pakistan
- Author:
- Mushtaq Ahmed Abbasi and Nazir Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The US Exit Strategy 2014 from Afghanistan has now entered one of their final phase, which happens to be the Withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US has already lessened its troops, though there were certain changes after Trump came to power. But still there is a looming confusion which exists regarding the aftermath of the event. That is how this Withdrawal will come to play and what would the Afghanistan’s post-US withdrawal would look like. Moreover, Pakistan will also be affected in more than one ways. The US is going to be leaving quite a vacuum upon which many regional and foreign powers have set their eyes on. India, Iran, China and Russia are all going to be a part of the post-US Afghanistan but this might only produce more instability. Moreover, it will have drastic security, political and strategic implications for Pakistan. The picture which comes to the mind is going to be of an everlasting loop of security complexes and strategic undertones after the withdrawal.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Al Qaeda, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, North America, and United States of America
2078. The US Factor in Pakistan-Iran Relations: New Dimensions
- Author:
- Manzoor Ahmad, Tahir Ali, and Zahir Shah
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- Pakistan-Iran relations have been complex and uncertain due to United States tremendous influence since 9/11. National interest remains a dominant factor to form the core of bilateral ties between the states. The change of governments in these states resulted in to reassess the foreign policy which gave a new dimension to the suspected and hostile relations between both the Muslim States which successfully undermined the United States hegemonic pressure. This paper is an attempt to explore Pakistan’s foreign policy towards Iran after Musharraf Presidency till now and the factors due to which it deterred and challenged the US influence.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Nuclear Power, and Afghanistan
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Iran, and United States of America
2079. United Kingdom’s Foreign Policy towards Syrian Refugees
- Author:
- Najam-ud-din Muhammad Farani, Iram Khalid, and Muhammad Rizwan Abbassi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- United Kingdom’s (UK) foreign policy towards the Syrian crisis is quite significant with reference to the entry of Syrian refugees into Europe and the strategic balance of power in the Middle East. UK being a major power in the European continent understands the importance of sharing the humanitarian responsibility for protecting, aiding and accommodating the Syrian refugees. The British Government is aware of the fact that it is not only providing humanitarian assistance to the Syrian refugees but also going to host their hostilities and affiliations in the ongoing conflict inside Syria. The arrival of Syrian refugees and asylum seekers in UK presents a complex case of national versus humanitarian concerns in foreign policy analysis. This research paper is an attempt to focus on the convergence and divergence of interests between UK’s Humanitarian assistance policy directed towards Syrian refugees and the British national security interests with reference to the strategic balance of power in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, Refugees, Syrian War, and Asylum
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
2080. Stabilizing Disarray in the Muslim World: Turkey and the European Union
- Author:
- Muhammad Nadeem Mirza, Lubna Abid Ali, and Irfan Hasnain Qaisrani
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- This study focuses on the growth of transnational forces and increased global interdependence in the Post-Cold War period, posing serious challenges to conservative regimes in the Middle East – manifested by popular uprisings for economic and political change, beginning 2010 in Tunisia. Since then the Arab states of Middle East are in turmoil. The situation has become complex due to the presence of Al-Qaeda network and ISIS (‘Islamic’ State of Iraq and Syria) radicals in the Middle East and Mediterranean region. Such non state extremists groups are a collective threat to future Europe also. On the other hand various countries of the Middle East and gulf region, have been engaged in waging the proxy wars against each other in order to achieve their specific objectives. Geographically, historically and politically Turkey has been a bridge between Middle East and Europe. The underlying assumption of this study establishes Turkey’s matured foreign policy not only as a model for struggling states of the Muslim World but holds keys to emerging threats to Europe. The study explores possibilities of Turkey to be central player not only for the resolution of regional issues but also as an active player at the global level.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
2081. From Eastward Pivot to Greater Eurasia
- Author:
- S. Karaganov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- The current stage of russia’s pivot to the east is the product of the second half of the 2000s largely as a belated economic response to the rise of asia, which opened new opportunities for the country’s devel- opment, especially for it eastern part. That rise made it possible to turn the ural region and the russian Far east from a mainly imperial burden – or a logistics base in confrontation with the West, sometimes a front line in rivalry with Japan or china – into a potential territory of develop- ment for the entire country. The expediency of making the pivot was substantiated by the fore- casted imminent economic slowdown of its main traditional partner, europe, and the deterioration of relations with europe and the West as a whole. The need for the diversification of economic ties and outside sources of development was becoming increasingly obvious. These assessments were backed up by a number of pronounced trends in the recent decade. First, these are the disintegration and crisis of the global order that the West has been trying to impose on the world since what it saw as its final victory. second is the process of relative de- globalization and the regionalization of the global economy and politics. and the third is the accelerating trend – related to the previous one – toward the politicization of economic ties, which made interdependence and dependence on one market comparatively less beneficial, if not sim- ply dangerous. Finally, the “asia for asia” trend prevailed over the “asia for the world” trend. Development in asia, especially in china, began to be increasingly oriented toward domestic and regional markets. Meanwhile, the process of spiritual and ideological emancipation of the formerly great asian civilizations, which in the past two centuries had been in colonial or semi-colonial dependence on the West, began to gain momen- tum. asian countries gained access to many achievements of the West, took advantage of the liberal global economic order that it created, became stronger, and began to claim a more appropriate place for them- selves on the world’s ideological and strategic map. The inevitability of the u.s. moving away (at least temporarily) from the role of a global hegemon, which came with a hefty price tag, became evident. Barack Obama set a course for domestic revival. however, old elites and inertia did not allow him to abandon costly and ineffective interventionism. Donald Trump strengthened the “self-isolation” trend. The u.s. has turned into a dangerous amalgam of residual intervention- ism and semi-isolationism. It is becoming increasingly evident that the u.s. seeks to create its own center, casting off some of its disadvanta- geous global commitments. a trend has evolved toward the formation of a hypothetically bipolar world through a multi-polar world with its inevitable chaos. One of its poles is based around the u.s. and the other is in eurasia. china seems to be its economic center, but the eurasian center will only materialize if Beijing does not claim the role of hegemon. however, whatever the case may be, it has turned out that once it has finally made a pivot to the east, russia has discovered many unexpected opportunities for itself.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Hegemony, Empire, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
2082. Solitaire Arabian Style
- Author:
- A. Frolov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- LAST SPRING, an event in the Arab world shocked everyone. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) withdrew their ambassadors from Doha, the capital of Qatar, their ally. One of the smallest members of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) was accused of supporting “anyone threat- ening the security and stability of the GCC whether as groups or individ- uals – via direct security work or through political influence ... and hos- tile media.” On June 5, 2017, the KSA, UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt officially dis- continued diplomatic relations and all types of communication with Qatar. Later, they were joined by the Maldives, Mauritius and Mauretania. Jordan and Djibouti lowered the level of their diplomatic representations in Doha. Several African countries – Senegal, Niger and Chad – recalled their ambassadors. Kuwait and Oman, both GCC mem- bers, stayed away from the action. Later, the three initiators handed Doha a list of 13 demands to end a major Gulf crisis, insisting that Qatar should shut down the Al Jazeera network, close a Turkish military base and scale down ties with Iran. They gave Qatar 10 days to comply with the demands and agree to annu- al audits in the following 10 years.1 Qatar rejected this ultimatum as inter- ference in its sovereignty. Possible repercussions notwithstanding, what happened to Qatar can be described as a manifestation of the deeply rooted social and political changes in the Arab East caused by the color revolutions unfolding amid globalization, informatization, democratization, gradual destruction of the traditional values of Eastern societies, and the frantic efforts to find adequate answers to these challenges.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
2083. Trumpism and International Relations: At the Threshold of Deideologization
- Author:
- E. Solovyev
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- eLection oF DonALD truMp and his active efforts to undermine the foreign and domestic policy course inherited from the obama admin- istration sent waves of concern across the Western analytical community. his inaugural address had a bombshell effect on Western mainstream media. his close to perfect populist speech (calling “to drain the Washington swamp” and “give power back to the people”) was national- ist at the brink of “isolationism.”1 he looked like a perfect right-wing populist and no exception to the common rule: clearly defined problems and real and urgent questions never supplied with clear (or rational) answers.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Populism, Ideology, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
2084. Russia’s Position on Territorial Conflicts in East Asia
- Author:
- Dmitry Streltsov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- ruSSiA’S poSition on territorial and border conflicts in east Asia arouses great interest. Most of these conflicts have deep roots in and are consequences of the cold War, primarily stemming from legal gaps in the system of interstate borders that is based on the San Francisco peace treaty. these conflicts include disputes over the South Kuril islands (“northern territories”), the Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands, and the tokto (takeshima) islands. in addition, there are numerous conflicts in the South china Sea (disputes over territories including the paracel and Spratly islands) that have more complicated histories and go further back into the past, including the colonial era. russia is involved in only one of east Asia’s territorial disputes, one with Japan, and is just an observer in the rest of them. russia’s line on those conflicts is very important from the point of view of its political and economic interests, which are determined by its trade and investment relations with the countries that are parties to those disputes. Many of the most acute conflicts are sovereignty disputes over islands and sea borders. essentially, they are disputes over economic con- trol of vast water areas in the east china Sea and South china Sea, which are rich in mineral and biological resources and are part of key interna- tional maritime communication lines. For russia, however, those com- munications are not as important as they are, for example, for Japan or South Korea, or even for china. russia is more reliant on the transit facilities of its eastern ports. the latter are used in shipping along the northern Sea route and in trans- portation to and from china more than they are in handling cargo transportation between east Asia and europe along the southern route passing through the Strait of Malacca. it was no accident that russia focused on that southern route in setting the agenda for the Asia- pacific economic cooperation (Apec) summit in vladivostok in 2012. As an outside observer in east Asian territorial conflicts with none of its geographical or economic interests affected by them, russia takes a more neutral position on them than countries to which such conflicts pose a direct threat of armed confrontation. the russian position is also determined by the economic develop- ment priorities of Siberia and the russian Far east as set by its “eastward turn” doctrine. Strategically speaking, russia needs good and stable eco- nomic, and hence political, relations with all key countries involved in east Asian processes of integration, processes that encompass all east Asian countries except north Korea. however, practically all east Asian countries with which russia is determined to maintain trade and investment partnership, including china, Japan, South Korea, and key Southeast Asian states such as vietnam, are embroiled in territorial or border conflicts. obviously, by siding with one of the parties to any of these conflicts, russia would jeop- ardize its relations with the other. russia cannot afford to make friends with one country by estranging another. it needs, showing the utmost discretion and delicacy, to achieve a subtle balance in its relations with various actors and to seek at least a fragile regional status quo. neither can russia ignore the fact that, by joining ad hoc blocs or coalitions formed to deal with territorial conflicts, it would risk being drawn into a conflict that might grow into war any moment.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
2085. Explaining Miscalculation and Maladaptation in Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Middle East during the Arab Uprisings: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective
- Author:
- Nuri Yeşilyurt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- This article seeks to test the relevance of neoclassical realism in explaining the foreign policy behavior of a regional power in an era of turbulent change in the regional system. Taking Turkey’s policy response to the Arab Uprisings as a case study, it tries to explain, from a neoclassical realist perspective, the causes of Ankara’s miscalculations while formulating an ambitious policy in 2011, as well as its failure to adapt to the new realities on the ground between 2013 and 2016. Overall, it argues that neoclassical realism provides a satisfying explanation for Turkey’s policy failure in this period, and that the problems of miscalculation and maladaptation in Turkish foreign policy were caused by distortive effects of certain unit-level factors. In this sense, while ideological tendencies of the ruling Justice and Development Party, as well as its consolidation of domestic power, shaped the content and styling of Ankara’s policy response after 2011, the extensive utilization of foreign policy for domestic purposes by the ruling party hindered Turkey’s adaptation to shifting balances in the regional power structure between 2013 and 2016.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, and Neoclassical Realism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
2086. Ideology, Political Agenda, and Conflict: A Comparison of American, European, and Turkish Legislatures’ Discourses on Kurdish Question
- Author:
- Akın Ünver
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Combining discourse analysis with quantitative methods, this article compares how the legislatures of Turkey, the US, and the EU discursively constructed Turkey’s Kurdish question. An examination of the legislative-political discourse through 1990 to 1999 suggests that a country suffering from a domestic secessionist conflict perceives and verbalizes the problem differently than outside observers and external stakeholders do. Host countries of conflicts perceive their problems through a more security-oriented lens, and those who observe these conflicts at a distance focus more on the humanitarian aspects. As regards Turkey, this study tests politicians’ perceptions of conflicts and the influence of these perceptions on their pre-existing political agendas for the Kurdish question, and offers a new model for studying political discourse on intra-state conflicts. The article suggests that a political agenda emerges as the prevalent dynamic in conservative politicians’ approaches to the Kurdish question, whereas ideology plays a greater role for liberal/pro-emancipation politicians. Data shows that politically conservative politicians have greater variance in their definitions, based on material factors such as financial, electoral, or alliance-building constraints, whereas liberal and/or left-wing politicians choose ideologically confined discursive frameworks such as human rights and democracy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Conflict, Legislation, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and United States of America
2087. The Pivot is Dead, Long Live the Pivot
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- While it hasn’t always been pretty or (gasp) consistent, US Asia policy under the Trump administration is, with one major exception, pretty much where the Obama administration left it. America’s Asian alliances remain the foundation of its security strategy and “our one-China policy” has been reaffirmed. Even regarding North Korea, the objective – bringing Kim Jong Un “to his senses” – remains the same, although the approach seems to display less patience. The exception centers on the one promise that Trump (regrettably in our view) has kept: abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On economic policy more generally, the promised trade war with China has (thus far) failed to materialize since “the Chinese have made some improvements on currency in recent months”; okay, Chinese currency manipulation actually stopped several years ago, but you get the point. While the search for a new buzz word to replace the “pivot” or “rebalance” continues, the vice president and secretaries of State and Defense have been to the region and the White House has confirmed President Trump’s plan to attend a trio of regional summits this fall. Asia remains a high priority region, for better and for worse.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
2088. Mixed Messages
- Author:
- Sheldon Simon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- In its early months, the Trump administration has devoted little attention to Southeast Asia and US relations with the region have generally followed a trajectory set by the Obama administration. The US continued naval operations in the South China Sea and joint exercises with most ASEAN states with US air and naval forces rotating through bases in northern Australia and the Philippines and deploying from Singapore. There have been mixed signals between Manila and Washington. With the ASEAN states and China moving toward completion of a Code of Conduct (COC) on rules of engagement in the South China Sea, it is hoped that the new document would be “legally binding,” but little specific about its provisions has been published. Following Washington’s abrogation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Hanoi has sought to alleviate its disappointment, saying that it understands the US need to create more jobs and that it will try to accommodate Washington in future trade negotiations. During the Obama administration’s two terms (2009-2016), the president’s “rebalance” to Asia featured Southeast Asia as its centerpiece. President Obama made 11 separate trips to the Asia-Pacific, visiting a total of 14 countries, nine of which were members of ASEAN. His secretaries of state and defense also made multiple journeys to the region. Among many successes during these years were US accession to ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, participation in the East Asia Summit for the first time in 2011, the establishment of the first diplomatic mission to ASEAN, and realization of the historic transition to democracy in Myanmar. The United States also increased the deployment of ships and aircraft to the region, particularly in Singapore, the Philippines, and Australia. In Obama’s final year, the US began distributing resources under the Maritime Security Initiative to assist Southeast Asian countries with their maritime domain awareness by transferring patrol vessels and surveillance aircraft as well as creating a system whereby these countries could share information on the region’s maritime security picture. While it’s still early for the Trump administration, there have been virtually no policy statements dealing with Southeast Asia, nor at this time (April) has the State Department chosen a deputy secretary – the number two position – or a permanent assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Direction from Washington for a region that was so important during the preceding eight years seems to be absent.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Leadership, Conflict, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea
2089. Adrift Without Dialogue
- Author:
- David G. Brown and Kevin Scott
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- In February, President Trump told President Xi Jinping that the US would honor its one-China policy. This eased concern that the new administration would radically change US policy toward Taiwan, but it remains unclear how the Trump administration will deal with specific Taiwan issues. Relations between Beijing and Taipei have continued to be in an unstable but calm state in the early months of 2017. The formal channels of dialogue remain closed and no significant effort has been made to reopen them. In the meantime, practical issues have been dealt with, sometimes constructively but often in ways that exacerbate the lack of trust. This unstable and risky situation will likely continue in the months ahead.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
2090. Kosovo Security Barometer: Trends of Perception Towards Kosovo's Foreign Policy and Dialogue with Serbia
- Author:
- Donika Emini
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- In general, the KSB targets a wide variety of actors interested in the public opinion trends in Kosovo in the field of security and justice. It targets the following stakeholders: policymakers in Kosovo as well as the western Balkans; the international organizations in Kosovo and their headquarters; local and international civil society organizations; academia and the media.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
2091. Turkish Civilian Capacity in Post-conflict Scenarios: The Cases of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo
- Author:
- Federico Donelli and Alessia Chiriatti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The disintegration of Yugoslavia has created huge instability in the Balkans since 1990. The post-conflicts challenges are still now on the table. Turkey continues to consider the Western Balkan countries as a priority: its activism reflects the multi-directionality of JDP’s policy. The paper will be oriented to enquire on Turkish networks in the Western Balkans. The approach will be historical and political, with an analysis of bilateral relations from the end of the Ottoman Empire, till ‘90s wars and the arrival of JDP on government. Throughout the analysis of two case studies - Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo- this article aims to highlight the application of the Turkey’s soft power in the Western Balkans.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil Society, State Formation, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Asia, Kosovo, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina
2092. Continuity or Change in Turkish Foreign Policy? Analyzing the Policy Fluctuations during the Justice and Development Party Era
- Author:
- Murat Ulgul
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- For decades, change in Turkish foreign policy has remained as “a neglected phenomenon” in the literature while continuity is explained with two main pillars: Westernization and preference for the status quo. The topic started gaining popularity at the end of 2000s when some conflicts of interest emerged between Turkey and its traditional partners. Scholars mainly explained this change as the result of the new Turkish leadership under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). While the debate in this period provided extensive literature on the subject, the arguments created could not explain the policy fluctuations during the AKP era. In this article, the change in AKP foreign policy is examined during three time periods that show different characteristics in terms of domestic and international opportunities/constraints. It is argued that while Westernization still remains an important pillar in Turkish foreign policy, the main change seems to be in Turkey’s traditional preference for the status quo.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Arab Spring, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
2093. Nigeria’s Leadership Role Quests: The Race of the Crippled
- Author:
- Ebere R. Adigbuo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- There is no doubt that Nigerians conceive their country as the giant state in Africa, principally for the country’s human and material endowments. In the realm of foreign policy, it is Nigeria’s status more than that of any other black African country, that most determines Africa’s collective future. Nigeria is determined not just to play its leadership role in Africa, but to also build upon it.1 It is against this background that Nigeria’s problem of capability comes in. A country that utilizes less than 10% of total steel used in Africa, less than 12% of all the power generated in Africa, a country that is associated with institutional failings and where social upheavals threatens the polity because of inept and corrupt leadership, it is doubtful if Africa will entrust its destiny to the crippled state. Using the “leadership role conception”2 as the theoretical framework, this paper examines the successes and challenges in this monumental task of leading Africa in the 21st century.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Corruption, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
2094. End Times Diplomacy at the UN?
- Author:
- Richard Gowan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- In her last days at the UN, Samantha Power practiced "end times diplomacy" in anticipation of President Trump but Nikki Haley has followed Power's diplomatic playbook.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and North America
2095. A Conservative’s Prescriptive Policy Checklist: U.S. Foreign Policies in the Next Four Years to Shape a New World Order
- Author:
- Robert D. Blackwill
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- As Donald Trump prepares to enter the presidency, many observers at home and abroad seek to anticipate the outlines of his foreign policy. This essay has a different purpose. Based on the rigorous definition of vital U.S. national interests that follows immediately below, [1] it proposes a prescriptive checklist of U.S. policy steps that would strengthen the domestic base of American external actions; reinforce the U.S. alliance systems in Asia and Europe; meet the Chinese and Russian challenges, while improving the quality of diplomatic exchanges with Beijing and Moscow; reshape U.S. trade policy; gradually pivot from the Middle East to Asia (but not from Europe); maintain the nuclear agreement with Iran; and confront international terrorism more aggressively, but with minimal U.S. boots on the ground in ungoverned areas and without nation building. This list attempts to take into account the President-elect’s public statements on foreign policy, but does not assume that all of them will be manifested after January 20. It rests squarely on the application of the Nixon/Kissinger national interest driven conceptual framework that refined American foreign policy five decades ago to current U.S. challenges and opportunities.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, Terrorism, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
2096. Why Cyber Operations Do Not Always Favor the Offense
- Author:
- Rebecca Slayton
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Bottom Lines: Creating unnecessary vulnerabilities. Making offensive cyber operations a national priority can increase instabilities in international relations and worsen national vulnerabilities to attack. But because the skills needed for offense and defense are similar, military offensive readiness can be maintained by focusing on defensive operations that make the world safer, rather than on offensive operations. Managing complexity. The ease of both offense and defense increases as organizational skills and capability in managing complex technology improve; it declines as the complexity of cyber operations rises. What appears to be offensive advantage is primarily a result of the offense’s relatively simple goals and the defense’s poor management. Assessing kinetic effects. It is often more expensive for the offense to achieve kinetic effects—for instance, sabotaging machinery—than for the defense to prevent them. An empirical analysis of the Stuxnet cyberattacks on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities shows that Stuxnet likely cost the offense more than the defense and was relatively ineffective.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Security, Nuclear Power, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North America
2097. Wielding influence in a new governance architecture: Norway, the G20 and the 2030 Agenda
- Author:
- Ole Jacob Sending and Joachim Nahem
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The G20 is by dint of its membership – the 20 largest economies in the world – an important decision-making body. Moreover, the challenges currently facing established inter-governmental organizations (IGOs) arguably make the G20 even more important. The G20 is perceived as agile, effective and powerful whereas established IGOs – such as the UN and the World Bank - appear to be bogged down by overly bureaucratic rules, organizational inertia, and a lack of resources to fulfil their mandates. This was on display when the G20 convened in Washington DC during the global financial crisis, and its swift actions, in all likelihood, prevented a more severe global crisis.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Governance, G20, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Norway
2098. Are international women’s issues being devalued in US foreign policy?
- Author:
- Fenohasina Rakotondrazaka Maret and Sarra Souid
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- Last month, a leaked US State Department budget document raised concerns around whether the Trump administration plans to eliminate funding for the State Department’s Office of Global Women’s Issues. These concerns were allayed by the budget released this week that maintains the office and gives it more funding. This reprieve from the general cuts in the foreign assistance budget is welcome, but the fact that the office still lacks an appointed leader from the new administration raises questions about what—if any—strategy the United States will implement in this important area.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Women, and International Development
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
2099. U.S. Arctic Foreign Policy in the Era of President Trump: A Preliminary Assessment
- Author:
- Joël Plouffe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Ten months into Donald Trump’s presidency and there is little indication as to how this administration is planning to actively pursue American Arctic interests in its foreign policy. Former president Barack Obama’s strategy had an ambitious agenda on climate change and regional governance leadership. What we have seen over the past several months in terms of foreign policy outlook has been a mixture of continuity and change. In terms of continuity, the State Department has, thus far, maintained multilateral co-operation in the areas of environmental protection, sustainable development, international scientific research and joint military exercises. It has upheld its commitment to the workings of the Arctic Council – including finishing the U.S. term until May 2017 as the chair – and is more likely than not to continue with the status quo. As for change, by reconsidering the role of U.S. leadership, the Trump administration has signalled its intention to approach the Arctic differently from the previous administration. It has distanced the federal government from the global fight on climate change and its impacts on the Arctic, and worked to reverse the Obama-era ban on oil and gas licensing in U.S. Arctic federal waters. This was part of Trump’s campaign promise to loosen regulations that negatively impact the energy industry. The U.S.-Canada bilateral relationship that had been so close under Obama and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is now focused on other areas – especially the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This policy paper looks at the legacies that the Obama administration left in terms of Arctic foreign policy, how the Trump administration has approached the region, and finally, what this could potentially mean for the U.S.-Canada relationship in the North American Arctic.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Borders, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, Arctic, and United States of America
2100. America First: The Global Trump at Six Months
- Author:
- Colin Robertson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- For Donald Trump ‘America First’ means ‘America First.’ Canada and like-minded nations will have to get used to it. Canada will have to actively engage with Congress, the states and the private and public interests that drive the American agenda. We will also have to put more effort and contribute more to the rules-based order of which we have been a beneficiary. Traditional statecraft is based on predictability and stability, both hallmarks of U.S. post-war foreign policy practised by both Democrats and Republicans. Predictable, Mr. Trump is not. The deliberation and careful planning that characterized the Obama administration have been replaced by Mr. Trump’s reliance on gut and instinct. Such unpredictability will continue to create heartburn inside foreign chancelleries, whether friend or foe. Where once the USA was prepared to cover the spread on trade and security, under Donald Trump there will be more take than give. Now, Canada and the allies will have to make their own investments in hard power to preserve collective security. But less dependence and reliance on US leadership and more collective responsibility would be a good thing. Middle powers, like Canada, will have to step up their diplomacy, both collective and individual. Focusing on their own niche capacities they will have to shore up the space left by Trump Administration decisions on climate, migration and at the international institutions that sustain the rules-based order. Ironically, one effect of the Trump presidency may be to make the western alliance stronger.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, and United States of America