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1. Japan’s Border Measures during Covid-19: How the Crisis Shaped ‘Others’ to Protect the ‘Stability of Self’

Author:
Vuslat Nur Şahin Temel and Zhao Xiru
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic has prompted countries to implement a wide range of specific cross-border security measures. The fear and anxiety induced by this crisis have rapidly expanded and contracted countries’ understanding of ‘self’ and ‘other’. This study examines Japan’s shift from liberal pre- Covid-19 border policies to the most stringent border closure measures among the G7 countries during the pandemic. In this study, we argue that the pandemic-induced fear increased anxiety in Japan’s public health safety identity, rapidly reshaping the conceptualization of the ‘self’ and ‘other’ in crisis scenarios. This shift aligns with Japan’s historical narrative of combating unprecedented threats to public health.
Topic:
Borders, Public Health, Human Security, COVID-19, Isolation, Ontological Security, and Anxiety
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

2. The Economy in its Labyrinth: A Structuralist View of the Mexican Economy in the 21st Century

Author:
Liz Monroy Gomez Franco
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In this paper, I analyze the performance of the Mexican economy during the two decades of the 21st century. I focus on the aggregate and sectoral dynamics of the economy to understand the underlying dynamics behind the aggregate performance of the economy. With these results in mind, I analyze the changes and continuities in the conduction of macroeconomic and labor market policy with the arrival of a new administration in 2018. The goal of analyzing both elements is to provide an integrated view of the situation in which the Mexican economy will face three structural challenges: the medium and long-run effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of artificial intelligence into the production process, and climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Political Economy, History, Macroeconomics, Artificial Intelligence, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

3. Getting Special Drawing Rights Right: Opportunities for Re-channelling SDRs to Vulnerable Countries

Author:
Jürgen K. Zattler
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Many developing countries are still grappling with the consequences of the pandemic and the associated high debt burdens while facing huge financing needs, inter alia related to climate change. In response, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued $650 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). The G7 and G20 have committed to re-channelling SDR 100 billion of their allocation to developing countries (on-lending, recycling and re-channelling are used interchangeably in this policy brief). The question now is how to implement these commitments in a way that promotes the global transformation and at the same time supports debt sustainability. It is important to note that there are certain restrictions on the re-channelling of SDRs. Most importantly, the re-channelling must be consistent with the SDR’s status as an international reserve asset. There are different interpretations of these requirements. The IMF has encouraged the use of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) for re-channelling. It has also signalled general support for re-channelling SDRs to the multilateral development banks (MDBs). The European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a more restrictive stance. Does the re-channelling of SDRs through the above-mentioned IMF trusts (“the current on-lending option”) effectively support the global transformation? Measured against this objective, the current on-lending regime has two shortcomings. First, it does not sufficiently link foreign exchange support to deep structural transformation. Second, it does not allow funds to be leveraged in the private capital market. In this policy brief, we discuss a promising alternative: recycling SDRs for MDB hybrid capital (“the hybrid capital option”). This option can overcome the two drawbacks of the current system. At the same time, it has its own challenges. Moreover, both the current on-lending option and the hybrid capital option raise concerns about debt sustainability. If implemented in their current forms, they would risk exacerbating vulnerable countries’ debt problems. It would therefore be desirable to modify these options to better integrate debt implications. This could be done by using the on-lent SDRs primarily for programmes that are not “expenditure-based”, but rather help to improve the composition of expenditure and revenue in a socially equitable manner, for example the introduction of regulatory standards, feebates and carbon pricing, or the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies. Such an approach could have the added benefit of making previously sceptical member states more receptive to the hybrid capital proposal. The mid-term review of the RST, scheduled for May 2024, as well as the full review in 2025 provide good opportunities to further explore some of the issues raised in this policy brief. In addition, the brief identifies three ways in which interested shareholders of the IMF and MDBs could advance the debate on the hybrid capital option.
Topic:
Development, Sustainability, COVID-19, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. European Election: Red Alert!

Author:
Pascale Joannin
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Europeans are being called to the polls between 6 and 9 June 2024 — depending on the country — to renew the members of the European Parliament. These will be the tenth elections by direct universal suffrage since 1979.
Topic:
Elections, Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Crisis Management, COVID-19, Regional Politics, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

5. New European Challenges: the "Schuman" lesson

Author:
Jean-Dominique Giuliani
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Since the health crisis, the European Union has changed. Since the Russian war in Ukraine, these changes have accelerated, to the extent that the face it presents today bears little resemblance to what it was just five years ago. The European institutions have had to adapt to the needs expressed by the Member States. They themselves have drawn their own conclusions from the changing geopolitical situation. These upheavals have led to spectacular advances, but also to some mistakes.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Crisis Management, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

6. Assessing ASEAN Economic Integration Progress and South Korea’s Approach Focusing on TBT and SPS

Author:
Sungil Kwak
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
TBT (Technical Barriers to Trade) and SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures) have two attributes. They act as barriers to trade expansion by protecting producers, but their importance has grown in terms of consumer protection measures after the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather than eliminating related regulations, achieving harmonization within the ASEAN region can simultaneously serve two objectives: expanding trade between South Korea and ASEAN and improving consumer protection. We assess the level of regional economic integration by measuring regulatory distances among ASEAN member states. We also measure regulatory distances between South Korea and ASEAN, and between Japan and ASEAN. We estimate the impact of ASEAN's TBT and SPS on the export performance of countries exporting goods to the ASEAN region.
Topic:
Regulation, Exports, Trade, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

7. North Korea’s 2023 Trade with China: Analysis and Forecasts

Author:
Jangho Choi and Yoojeong Choi
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This article analyzes North Korea-China trade trends and statistics in 2023 to evaluate the extent of North Korea's trade normalization and its performance. North Korea's trade with China increased by more than 120% compared to the previous year as the country declared a COVID-19 Endemic and gradually eased border controls, but did not recover to 2018-19 levels, the year before the outbreak of COVID-19. Imports to China recorded 2.00 billion, 124.1% higher than the 0.89 billion in 2022. North Korea's imports from China in 2023 are estimated to be the maximum achievable given the lack of a full resumption of over-land trade. However, as the negative impact of UN sanctions on the North Korean economy is ongoing, making it difficult to normalize industrial production. North Korea mainly imported raw materials for processing trade (textile and garment raw materials), staple foods (rice and sugar), agricultural materials (fertilizer), and construction materials from China in 2023. North Korea’s exports to China stood at 0.29 billion, up 118.4% from 0.13 billion in 2023. Exports remain at the 16.9% of the level before the tightening of UN sanctions on North Korea, as the country has failed to diversify its products and expand exports of major export items. Exports were highly dependent on specific products, wigs and false eyelashes, a labor-intensive industry, accounting for 57.1% of total exports. In spite of increasing wigs export, North Korea failed to further expand its amount and diversify the export items in the second half of the year. According to the analysis of trade statistics, the main goals of North Korea's 2023 US foreign economic policy are: (1) resuming smuggling trade in textiles and clothing, (2) building irrigation canals in preparation for summer floods, (3) implementing state-led grain distribution, (4) building living houses in a rural area, and (5) increasing metal production for Russian arms exports. Despite the increase in imports from China in the transition to the coronavirus pandemic, it is difficult to say that it has yet led to the recovery of industrial production and economic development. The future of North Korea's trade with the rest of the world in 2024 will be determined by whether North Korea fully opens its borders and improves its relations with China. In 2024, both North Korea's exports and imports are expected to be slightly higher than in 2023. North Korea's exports are unlikely to increase significantly, as North Korea-Russia military cooperation is expected to continue and China is likely to maintain its checks on the growing Sino-Russian alignment. Increased imports will lead to a larger trade deficit, but it will be within North Korea's ability to manage for one to two years.
Topic:
Economics, Border Control, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

8. Multidimensional Impact of COVID-19 on Education and Implications on Inclusive Recovery

Author:
Gee Young Oh
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This report aims to present the findings of Oh et al. (2023), which analyzes the post-pandemic inequality levels in developing countries and derives policy implications for Korea's international development cooperation (IDC) to help reduce inequality, especially in the education sector. The impact of COVID-19 on education is multidimensional, with varying levels of heterogeneity across countries, regions, households, and individual stakeholders, including students, parents, and teachers. To comprehensively understand this multidimensionality, the study compares situations in two countries to explore inter- and intra-country educational disparities. After identifying such multidimensionality, the study derives policy implications on how Korea’s IDC can better target post-pandemic inequality in education.
Topic:
Development, Education, International Cooperation, Inequality, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

9. State Intervention in the Public and Private Spheres in Times of Crisis: Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:
Dilber Akbaba
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Especially in times of crisis, states can influence the public and private spheres by relying on their legitimacy power. Aside from its emergence and importance for humanity, the state reshapes individuals' private and public spheres by influencing them. The reshaped public and private spheres undoubtedly require a new perspective. Whether these areas have changed, the fate of their boundaries and the approach of individuals and the state to these areas may differ between ordinary and extraordinary periods. In the emergence of differences, the current understanding of governance is as important as how the state perceives its people and how the people perceive the state. Because these perceptions affect the parties' expectations in ordinary and crisis periods, criticism or acceptance develops due to the actual practices. In this article, the Covid-19 pandemic has been defined as a crisis period, and the Republic of Türkiye has been chosen as the subject whose policies implemented during the crisis period have been observed. The study examines the state's authority to intervene in the public and private sphere boundaries during the Covid-19 pandemic and the changes in these boundaries. Within the scope of the article, the study carried out in this direction examines how the edges of the public and private spheres were affected by the state's interventions/practices/policies during the Covid-19 crisis.
Topic:
Crisis Management, COVID-19, Public Space, Private Space, and State Intervention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Wuhan: How the COVID-19 Outbreak in China Spiraled Out of Control

Author:
Dali Yang, Qin Gao, Junyan Jiang, and Xiaobo Lü
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic, which began as an outbreak in Wuhan in late 2019, has claimed millions of lives and caused unprecedented disruptions. Despite its generation-defining significance, there has been a surprising lack of independent research examining the decisions and measures implemented in the weeks leading up to the Wuhan lockdown, as well as the missteps and shortcomings that allowed the novel coronavirus to spread with minimal hindrance. In this book talk, Wuhan: How the COVID-19 Outbreak in China Spiraled Out of Control, Dali L. Yang scrutinizes China's emergency response to the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan, delving into the government's handling of epidemic information and the decisions that influenced the scale and scope of the outbreak. Yang's research reveals that China's health decision-makers and experts had an excellent head start when they implemented a health emergency action program to respond to the outbreak at the end of December 2019. With granular detail and compelling immediacy, Yang investigates the political and bureaucratic processes that hindered information flows and sharing, as well as the cognitive framework that limited understanding of the virus's contagiousness and hampered effective decisions and enabled the outbreak to spiral out of control.
Topic:
Government, Crisis Management, Bureaucracy, COVID-19, Decision-Making, Zero-COVID, and Emergencies
Political Geography:
China and Asia

11. The inflation surge in Europe

Author:
Patrick Honohan
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For most of the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, undershooting rather than overshooting had been the main inflation problem of the European Central Bank (ECB). During 2020, consumer prices in the euro area were falling; by the end of that year, average inflation since the introduction of the euro two decades earlier stood at only 1.6 percent per year. Things began to snowball in 2021. The 12-month inflation rate steadily accelerated. It reached double digits in the final quarter of 2022—more than twice the level it had ever reached since the euro’s introduction in 1999. Four striking features emerge from a review of the unexpected surge in European inflation since 2021: (1) The ECB’s monetary policy response lagged behind that of the US Federal Reserve, reflecting the more gradual evolution of inflation in the euro area and its distinct pattern of causes; (2) the range of inflation rates across different euro area countries has been unprecedented. This largely reflects the differential impact of war-related energy shocks (especially for natural gas piped from Russia) as well as the differential fiscal response by national governments partially insulating consumers from these shocks; (3) not all households were net losers from the inflation, with some benefiting from the fact that inflation reduced the real value of their indebtedness; and (4) the speed with which inflation was returning toward target during 2023 prompted concerns that the ECB’s monetary tightening might have been pushed too far, prolonging the output slowdown.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, European Union, Inflation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

12. The influence of gasoline and food prices on consumer expectations and attitudes in the COVID era

Author:
Joanne Hsu
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Food and gasoline prices are extremely salient to consumers, who regularly purchase these goods, and these prices are highly visible. The shared experience of purchasing food and gasoline makes it no surprise that those prices have been blamed for the relatively dismal consumer views of the economy in 2023 amid strong economic indicators, including slowing inflation, low unemployment, and robust growth. At the same time, consumer inflation expectations have eased during this past year. This Policy Brief investigates the role food and gasoline prices play in influencing consumer inflation expectations and economic sentiment, as measured on the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, and focuses on the COVID inflationary episode. The author finds that, although consumer sentiment now appears to be more sensitive to inflation than prior to the pandemic, inflation expectations do not. Even though inflation has waned, consumers still spontaneously comment on the negative impact of high prices on their lives. That said, these persistently negative perceptions about inflation have not translated into persistently high inflation expectations.
Topic:
Inflation, COVID-19, Consumer Behavior, and Cost of Living
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

13. Lessons from China's fiscal policy during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:
Tianlei Huang
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Expansionary fiscal policy helped China's economy grow in 2020, a year in which most economies contracted because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid a broader pivot to policy and regulatory tightening, fiscal support was withdrawn in 2021. In 2022, government budget turned expansionary to ensure economic stability ahead of the Communist Party Congress, but the execution fell short and fiscal policy ended up being weaker than planned. A recurrent problem during the pandemic, however, was that local governments did not fully spend their budgets. Aside from the sharp drop in local governments' land sale revenue in 2022, which dragged down their spending, it was also caused by local governments' failure to fully utilize their special bond quotas approved by the central government for capital investment. China's fiscal policy during the COVID-19 pandemic highlights four issues with implications for fiscal policy making. First, the government needs to avoid projecting unrealistically high land sale revenue in its budgets. Second, it needs to reconsider its problematic use of local-government special bond as a major fiscal stimulus instrument. Third, it needs to make sure its deficit, growth, and inflation targets are consistent. Last, Beijing needs to be more tolerant of higher fiscal deficits, at a minimum ensuring that overall fiscal spending grows at least as rapidly as nominal output.
Topic:
Budget, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
China and Asia

14. Racism, Xenophobia and Solidarity in Migration and Mobility Politics: Does COVID-19 make any difference?

Author:
Mojúbàolú Olufúnké Okome
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Ìrìnkèrindò: A Journal of African Migration
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
This issue was originally planned to center on the COVID-19 pandemic, intended for publication at its peak. However, one of the lingering effects of the pandemic was the prolonged production timeline of this issue.
Topic:
Migration, Solidarity, Mobility, Xenophobia, COVID-19, and Racism
Political Geography:
Africa

15. Investigating the Vulnerability of Foreign Migrants Businesses in Durban, South Africa, During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Ayobami Popoola, Hangwelani Magidimisha-Chipingu, and Lovemore Chipungu
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
There is lack of empirical evidence on the vulnerability of immigrant businesses in Durban, South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic. To investigate this, data was collected during the pandemic to evaluate the vulnerability of immigrant businesses. The research adopted the quantitative approach, with a sample of fifty-three (53) Durban city immigrants small-scale business owners, to examine their business vulnerability. A linear regression model and correlation were used to analyse the data. The findings show that business insecurity increased immigrants' business vulnerability. Thus, without underestimating the COVID-19 pandemic effect, it was evident that urban insecurity resulting in xenophobic tendencies and incidences is the main factor/determinant/predictor that increases the vulnerability of foreign businesses. The study suggests that the documentation and analysis of foreign immigrants' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic can contribute to understanding the effects and consequences for immigrants across the globe. The study contributes to debates on immigrants' inclusion and seeks to fill the gap in the literature on immigrant business experience and survival in host communities.
Topic:
Migration, Immigrants, COVID-19, and Business Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

16. The Complexities of Transnational Childcare Practices among Ghanaian Families in a Context of Global Pandemic

Author:
Patricia Serwaa Afrifa
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
Childcare remains central in all human societies. This is because it is in children that humans invest their immortality and ensure the continuity of humanity. This partly explains the social collectivism that is brought to bear in childcare to the extent that in some indigenous African societies, the popular axiom is: "It takes a village to raise to raise a child". While the forces of modernity, neoliberalism, and the near-collapse of the extended family system across the world, including indigenous societies, have negatively impacted collective childcare, parents continue to devise creative strategies to nurture their children. The members of the Ghanaian diaspora in the United States of America (USA) often extended invitations to older members of their families, including their mothers, to join them across the Atlantic to help with nurturing their children. This practice of transnational migration of child carers was very efficient in helping children to access Ghanaian cultural values and languages, until the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. With the outbreak of the pandemic, one way of controlling its totalizing effect was the imposition of social distance protocols, which at the peak of the pandemic involved a global ban on all means of human crisscrossing the world. This implied that most diasporic Ghanaians had their family-dependent source of childcare supply significantly cut. This phenomenon inspired the paper. Through in-depth interviews with selected Ghanaian families in the USA through social media and phones, this paper explores the impact of the ban on transnational travel on childcare practices among Ghanaian diaspora in the USA. The key findings of the study suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not only cripple the economies of the world, it also blocked the alternatives available to Ghanaians to receive an additional source of care for their children.
Topic:
Diaspora, Family, COVID-19, Strategy, Migrants, and Child Care
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

17. Community Governance During COVID-19: Case Studies from Rural Areas of Bangladesh

Author:
Tanvir Shatil, Md. Rohmotul Islam, Huraera Jabeen, and Shahaduz Zaman
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
This working paper investigates community-driven initiatives in rural Bangladesh that emerged in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and persisted beyond the crisis. Focusing on the sustainability of these initiatives, the study explores the preconditions for collective actions, the development of community-level governance during the crisis, and the mobilization and longevity of these efforts. Supported by the Institute of Development Studies, the research aims to contribute valuable insights into community governance mechanisms in low-resource areas, offering potential solutions for designing resilient emergency interventions and addressing long-term development challenges.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Rural, COVID-19, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

18. Global supply chains: lessons from a decade of disruption

Author:
Luca Léry Moffat and Niclas Poitiers
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This paper explores both the character and impact of three recent shocks to global supply chains: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US-China trade war. These were large shocks which have had significant impacts on domestic and international supply chains, but these impacts have differed in their longevity, economic impact and policy responses. We show that supply chains were remarkably resilient against shocks of such magnitude. However, this resilience was also achieved thanks to the equally remarkable size and scope of policy responses and global supply chain reorganisation. We recommend that pre-emptive policies may be justified to shield households and industry from future shocks. Given the entangled nature of these shocks and that their effects continue to reverberate, we emphasise the need for extensive future research to understand the nature of these shocks and the effectiveness of policy responses.
Topic:
Global Markets, Trade Wars, Trade, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

19. Navigating Educational Disruptions: The Gender Divide in Parental Involvement and Children’s Learning Outcomes

Author:
Matias Ciaschi, Johanna Fajardo-Gonzalez, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This study analyzes the adjustment in time allocation to school support activities by mothers and fathers during the pandemic across 22 Latin American and Caribbean countries, exploring the repercussions on labor market outcomes and children’s learning losses. Our analysis reveals that mothers experienced a disproportionate increase in time dedicated to children’s educational support compared to fathers, particularly when mothers could work from home. The results suggest that these effects were more pronounced in countries with stringent school closure measures and limited access to in-person instruction. Even as mobility restrictions eased and schools reopened, the additional responsibilities taken on by mothers remained above pre-pandemic levels. Mothers also significantly increased the time spent on non-educational childcare, though to a lesser extent than educational support. We also show evidence indicating a decline in maternal labor force participation and a rise in flexible labor arrangements as mothers allocated more hours to child-related duties. Our study also provides descriptive evidence that children’s learning losses were less severe in countries where the gender disparity in pandemicrelated school support was greater.
Topic:
Education, Labor Issues, COVID-19, Parenting, and Childcare
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

20. The Impact of COVID-19 on Education in Latin America: Long-Run Implications for Poverty and Inequality

Author:
Jessica Bracco, Matias Ciaschi, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Guido Neidhöfer
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the human capital formation of children and youths. As a consequence of this disruption, the pandemic is likely to imply permanent lower levels of human capital. This paper provides new evidence on the impact of COVID-19 and school closures on education in Latin America by exploiting harmonized microdata from a large set of national household surveys carried out in 2020, during the pandemic. In addition, the paper uses microsimulations to assess the potential effect of changes in human capital due to the COVID-19 crisis on future income distributions. The findings show that the pandemic is likely to have significant long-run consequences in terms of incomes and poverty if strong compensatory measures are not taken soon.
Topic:
Education, Poverty, Inequality, Human Capital, COVID-19, and Income
Political Geography:
Latin America

21. 'I Don't Know What Tomorrow will Bring': Understanding COVID-19’s Impact on the United States’ Stateless Population

Author:
Ashley Walters, Taryn Painter, and Heidi Meyers
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
In March 2020, COVID-19 was declared by the World Health Organisation (‘WHO’) as a global pandemic. Since the WHO’s declaration, it has become increasingly clear that the most vulnerable communities have experienced the brunt of the pandemic. Though race, ethnicity and economic status are considered in a majority of reports on the social, physical and financial impacts of COVID-19, there is little to no information on the impact of COVID-19 on stateless communities within the United States (‘US’). This research endeavours to add to the understanding of statelessness in the US by determining the impacts of COVID-19 on stateless people in the US through a survey scoping project. Through anonymous questionnaires completed by stateless individuals (n=19) in the United States, this study explores how stateless individuals have been impacted by the pandemic, including experiencing economic hardships, mental health challenges, physical health concerns and issues with documentation and legal status.
Topic:
Health, Economy, Mental Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Stateless Population, Vulnerability, Legal Status, and Documentation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

22. The Socio-Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Syrian Refugees in Turkey

Author:
Fulya Memişoğlu, Altan Özkil, and Tuna Kılınç
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Building upon empirical research, this study examines the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Syrian refugees in Turkey by analyzing its implications on employment, livelihood opportunities, and social cohesion. More specifically, it focuses on the experiences of Syrian refugees to examine the ways in which they exert their agency to cope with the structural constraints when faced with ‘multiple crises’ in host countries, intersecting with the dynamics of a ‘normalized refugee crisis’. Our findings from fieldwork conducted in the top six refugee-hosting cities reveal that loss of jobs, limited access to decent work, increased dependency on external financial assistance, and social exclusion have been some of the most acute effects of the pandemic on refugees. Meanwhile, the perceived effects that refugees have on the host community’s welfare trigger problems that impede social cohesion. All in all, the study intends to highlight the far-reaching effects of the pandemic beyond its direct health implications by addressing the structural vulnerability of refugees and the importance of providing an enabling environment for socio-economic self-reliance.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Refugees, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

23. Working from Home and Mental Well-being in the EU at Different Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Gendered Look at Key Mediators

Author:
Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the relationship between working from home (WFH) and mental well-being at different stages during the first two critical years of the COVID-19 pandemic, when governments repeatedly imposed lockdowns and enacted WFH mandates to contain the spread of the virus. Using data from a representative survey conducted at four different time periods in 2020 (first lockdown, subsequent gradual reopening), 2021 (further lockdown) and 2022 (restrictions widely lifted) in the 27 EU member states, it examines the potentially changing role of several mediators over time, such as work-family conflict, family-work conflict, stability, resilience, isolation, the importance of different support networks, workload, physical risk of contracting COVID-19 at work, and housing conditions. For the first lockdown, it also differentiates by previous WFH experience, in terms of WFH novices and experienced WFH workers. It differentiates by gender, in order to take the potential gendered nature and effect of COVID-19 measures into account. The results show that while there was no direct relationship between WFH and mental well-being, there are several important mediators whose relevance was specific not only to certain stages of the pandemic, but also to previous experience with WFH and gender. Stability is the only mediator that was relevant over the entire two-year pandemic period. Work-family conflict and family-work conflict were only relevant during the first lockdown, while resilience and isolation mattered especially when most of the EU economies had lifted most of their restrictions. Unlike established WFH workers, WFH novices had an advantage during the first lockdown, benefiting from lower family-work conflict and more helpful networks of family and friends. Moreover, our results differ by gender: for females who undertook WFH, important mediators were work-family conflict and family-work conflict. Both were related to adjustments they had to make in work and non-work hours in response to the enforced closure of schools and childcare facilities during the lockdowns, especially during the first. For males who undertook WFH, especially WFH novices, support from networks of family and friends was an important mediator.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Mental Health, COVID-19, Well-Being, and Working from Home
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

24. The Path Through: Early COVID-19 Job Loss and Labour Market Trajectories in Austria

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Maryna Tverdostup
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper examines the socio-demographic disparities evident in the early labour market response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria, relying on the register-based labour market career dataset from the Austrian Micro Data Center (AMDC) for the 2018-2021 period. The analysis focuses on the divergences in out-of-unemployment transitions and medium-term employment stability among those who lost their jobs early in the pandemic in contrast to the group of the longer-term unemployed. We document that individuals affected by job loss during the initial phases of the pandemic did not exhibit enduring scarring effects. Unlike their longer-term unemployed counterparts, they did not demonstrate persistent labour market detachment, prolonged periods of unemployment or a diminished success rate in re-employment. However, certain socio-demographic cohorts – notably, women, parents with two or more young children, and individuals with lower levels of education – faced disproportionate challenges during the pandemic. They were more inclined to transition into precarious employment arrangements and experienced lower levels of employment stability in the months following re-employment.
Topic:
Employment, Inequality, Unemployment, COVID-19, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

25. Warnings and Welcomes: China’s Reopening and the Politics of International Travel

Author:
John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Over the past two months, as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has rapidly rolled back its strict zero-COVID epidemic prevention policy, COVID-19 has spread rapidly throughout the country. The combination of the PRC reopening its borders to outbound travel on January 8 and the ongoing pandemic has put countries that are major travel destinations for Chinese nationals in a bind. Governments have responded differently to the situation, with some imposing testing and quarantine requirements and others declining to do so. In China, official and social media have generally lauded countries that have desisted from testing requirements and opened their doors to Chinese tourists. Thailand, in particular, has been widely celebrated. Not only did Thailand decline to impose testing requirements on inbound travelers from the PRC, but several senior Thai government ministers went to the airport to welcome the first planeload of Chinese tourists following the lifting of travel restrictions on January 8 (Guangming Daily, January 17). Scenes of smiling Thai officials and airport workers greeting the first group of arriving tourists circulated widely in Chinese media.
Topic:
Politics, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Travel
Political Geography:
China and Asia

26. Budget Brief: Samagra Shiksha

Author:
Mridusmita Bordoloi, Avani Kapur, and Sidharth Santhosh
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Samagra Shiksha is Government of India’s (GoI’s) school education programme covering preprimary to higher-secondary levels. Launched in April 2018, the scheme is the primary vehicle to implement the provisions under the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education (RTE) Act, 2009, and the goals for school education envisaged under the National Education Policy (NEP), 2020. After a year of reopening of schools, post the COVID-19 pandemic, this brief uses government data to analyse Samagra Shiksha performance based on: ■ Trends in allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Component-wise approved budgets; ■ School enrolment trends pre and post COVID-19 pandemic; and ■ Learning outcomes and ICT infrastructure.
Topic:
Education, Governance, Budget, COVID-19, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

27. Sellers’ Inflation, Profits, and Conflict: Why Can Large Firms Hike Prices in an Emergency?

Author:
Isabella Weber and Evan Wasner
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The dominant view of inflation holds that it is macroeconomic in origin and must always be tackled with macroeconomic tightening. In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices. Such firms are price makers, but they only engage in price hikes if they expect their competitors to do the same. This requires an implicit agreement which can be coordinated by sector-wide cost shocks and supply bottlenecks. We review the long-standing literature on price-setting in concentrated markets and survey earnings calls and compile firm-level data to derive a three-stage heuristic of the inflationary process: (1) Rising prices in systemically significant upstream sectors due to commodity market dynamics or bottlenecks create windfall profits and provide an impulse for further price hikes. (2) To protect profit margins from rising costs, downstream sectors propagate, or in cases of temporary monopolies due to bottlenecks, amplify price pressures. (3) Labor responds by trying to fend off real wage declines in the conflict stage. We argue that such sellers’ inflation generates a general price rise which may be transitory, but can also lead to self-sustaining inflationary spirals under certain conditions. Policy should aim to contain price hikes at the impulse stage to prevent inflation from the onset.
Topic:
Political Economy, Inflation, Profit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. The First COVID Wave: Comparing Experiences of Adults Age 50 and Older in the U.S. and Europe

Author:
Thomas Barnay and Eric Defebvre
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Three years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, the United States remains one of the hardest-hit countries, with more than 1 million confirmed coronavirus deaths, of which more than 91 percent involved people 50 years and older.1 Beyond causing this enormous loss of life, the pandemic has had other significant adverse consequences, including hospitalizations, job loss, and delayed care for millions of Americans. In this brief, we examine how U.S. adults age 50 and older fared during the first wave of the pandemic in the summer of 2020, compared with their peers in European countries.
Topic:
Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

29. A return to grace for nuclear power in European public opinion? Some elements of a rapid paradigm shift

Author:
Mathieu Brugidou and Jérémy Bouillet
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The health crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, and perhaps above all the war in Ukraine, together with increasingly outspoken Chinese and/or American interventionism, have largely contributed to "breaking European energy taboos"[1] towards more collective and coordinated approaches. This is undeniable in the field of energy: if certain mechanisms such as the general cap on gas prices have not been adopted, some measures, which were hard to imagine at European level until recently, have now been ratified, such as joint gas purchases, shared objectives for reducing energy demand, the obligation to store energy, etc.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Nuclear Power, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

30. Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security Threats in Africa and the Middle East

Author:
Munsu Kang
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The food security crisis in the Middle East has been exacerbated by several events, including COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the greater crisis is the decline in agricultural productivity caused by climate change and the rise of protectionist trade policies. This study examined the impact of drought on regional grain prices, specifically drought, which has the greatest impact on the Middle East region of Africa among weather changes. It was predicted by the IPCC (2019) that weather changes would affect agricultural production systems and that these changes would affect international grain markets and government trade policies. This study found that prices in the African Middle East maize and rice market increased as the drought intensified and the period lengthened, as predicted. Sorghum and millet, however, are relatively inelastic to climate change, so it can be assumed that they will receive attention as climate change intensifies. This study proposes areas for cooperation such as agricultural production, supporting the vulnerable, and crop reserve with the Middle East and Africa.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

31. Covid-19 Crisis and Shifts in the Corporate Competitive Landscape: Comparisons with Previous Economic Crises

Author:
Sang-Ha Yoon, Yaein Baek, Wontae Han, Yoonsoo Lee, and Daisoon Kim
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In terms of economic fluctuations, it is well recognized that the effects of an economic crisis have a detrimental impact on the entry, growth, decline, and exit of firms. In addition, the magnitude of the impact varies both within and between industries depending on the size and other characteristics of the firm. The economy is going through significant changes due to the emergence of new industries and the decline or disappearance of current ones. This study looks at how big economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis have affected businesses and industries. After completing a study at several levels of top international corporations, larger domestic enterprises, and domestic small and medium-sized businesses, it attempts to draw policy implications. First, it is necessary to foster and support top-tier companies to defend against global economic fluctuations and strengthen international competitiveness. In particular, the institution in charge of competition policies domestically and the institution that helps companies improve their competitiveness are different and the focus of policies is distinctive, so comprehensive attention and perspective of policymakers are needed. Second, it is urgent to respond to new issues related to competition policy in the domestic market. The behavior of emerging big tech and platform companies is different from monopoly companies in the past, so consumer welfare is not impaired, but it burdens nearby and other market participants. Therefore, a view that deviates from the focus on monopoly pricing is also essential for competition policy. Third, measures to support global corporate growth and countermeasures against changes in the industrial landscape should be prepared. Investment and R&D expansion at the corporate level is essential for corporate growth, and measures are needed to boost investment in recently emerging intangible assets. In addition, it is important to revitalize the movement of economic resources to cope with changes in the inter-industry landscape accompanied by the crisis. Fourth, policies to revitalize start-ups and closures are required. The decline in new companies' market entry and exit rates is a symtom of an aging economy contributing to the overall decrease in productivity. Therefore, enhancing the revitalization of the corporate ecosystem and expanding the size of enterprises are essential to enhance the dynamics of the economy. Fifth, it is necessary to find an appropriate combination of government roles in times of crisis. In particular, it is important to grasp the detailed status of economic stabilization policies in relation to SMEs, and at the same time, clear judgments on the appropriate size of support measures, the period of support, and the timing of collection are urgently needed.
Topic:
Economics, COVID-19, Corporations, Economic Crisis, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

32. Using Risk Analysis to Shape Border Management: A Review of Approaches during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Kelley Lee, Julianne Piper, and Jennifer Fang
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The near universal adoption of travel measures by governments to control the spread of COVID-19 has proved controversial during the pandemic. National responses have been highly varied and frequently changing, and the use of travel measures—ranging from advisories and screening to quarantine, testing, immunity certification, and restrictions on entry—has been poorly coordinated across jurisdictions. Particularly in the early stages of the crisis, this created chaos for travelers and the travel sector, and caused significant economic and social harms. Many governments also failed to clearly communicate the rationale for using travel measures, the evidence underpinning them, and the measures’ role within overall pandemic response strategies. There is now substantial evidence that these measures’ early and stringent use by some governments during the initial stages of the pandemic slowed the importation of the virus and reduced its onward transmission. Yet, there is also growing recognition of weaknesses in the quality of evidence available to inform policy decisions. Evaluating the appropriateness of travel measures and applying them effectively during future public-health emergencies will depend on international consensus on methodologies that lead to a more harmonized and coordinated approach and to greater public trust in policy decisions. This report presents a comparative analysis of 11 publicly available methodologies used to assess travel-related risks during the pandemic—those of Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Air Transport Association, World Health Organization, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and European Union. It offers a set of lessons learned and recommendations, including a proposed decision instrument that could improve the use of risk analysis for border management during future public-health emergencies.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, International Organization, Governance, Border Control, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Global Focus, and United States of America

33. A Future Projection of Post-Covid-19 in Japan: Universal Values and International Cooperation

Author:
Yukio Sakurai
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This essay aims to clarify the most popular impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and examine a future projection of Post-COVID-19 in Japan. This is based on interdisciplinary studies, particularly the literature survey on global governance in English and Japanese. Japan has consistently lived after WWII under the principles of freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Given the challenges caused by the pandemic, it is unpredictable how much conflict between multiple powers will hinder national security and economic globalization. The following five actions should be executed: Japan should participate in international research activities to envision a future society, Japan should adopt a unique future concept to address ageing populations and social security reform in their international cooperation, a review of neoliberalism, construction of a society that can respond to societal risks, and political leadership and freedom of speech to deal with serious social risks should be championed.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

34. Gendered implications of the waves of COVID19 and economic upgrading trajectories in digital value chains: Insights from Kenyan agricultural platforms

Author:
Aarti Krishnan, Monica Nganga, and Tim Foster
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Women play a critical yet under-researched role in global digital agri-food value chains, especially in smallholder production, which affects how they are able to economically upgrade (improve crop yields and product quality, and increase product diversification). Research suggests that women’s participation in agricultural platform-driven value chains facilitates the overcoming of barriers such as access to productive resources and engenders upgrading. However, studies have shown mixed evidence of the benefits of ag-platforms, and there are very limited data on female farmers’ contribution. Their economic upgrading possibilities are further compounded by the onset of shocks such as COVID-19. Predominantly only anecdotal evidence exists of how such shocks impact women in agriculture generally, let alone those using digital platforms. This paper seeks to answer the question: To what extent has the intensity of COVID-19 affected economic upgrading possibilities for women in platform-driven ag-value chains? The paper attempts to unpack economic upgrading through the different regimes of COVID-19, illustrating the dynamic effects experienced by women living through the shock. The paper uses a mixed methods approach, combining daily transaction data for over 3,000 farmers from 2019 to 2021 with 40 interviews of various value chain actors. The results show that women have been able to upgrade through the shock in terms of crop productivity and product quality more successfully than men, although there are differences across the different regimes of COVID-19; however, women have downgraded in terms of product diversification. The results are robust using pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and seemingly unrelated regressions. The paper highlights a critical need to unpack shocks as a succession of regimes, rather than treating them as homogeneous entities, in order to provide a more holistic understanding of how women cope.
Topic:
Agriculture, COVID-19, Value Chains, and Gender
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

35. Armed group opportunism in the face of recent crises: COVID-19 and climate change

Author:
Siobhan O'Neil
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Terrorist and other types of armed groups often exploit natural and human-made disasters and emergencies to advance their causes. This paper studies how some armed groups have responded to two recent global emergencies—climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the messaging and actions of the Boko Haram in Nigeria and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident groups in Colombia in response to COVID and climatic shifts. The paper uses assessment methodology to look into unique survey evidence from each country in order to determine the public impact of armed group decision-making and responses to these emergencies. It also considers the potential policy implications of the findings presented herein.
Topic:
Climate Change, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, COVID-19, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus

36. Sentiment of Bangladeshi Residents Toward Covid-19 Lockdowns: Qualitative Analyses of Open-Ended Responses in a Large Panel Survey

Author:
Daryl Collins, Derry Moore, Pravarakya Reddy Battula, and Avinno Faruk
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
This paper explores the public sentiment of Bangladeshi residents concerning the lockdowns imposed by the Bangladeshi government in 2021 in response to COVID-19. Through open-ended question design and analyses of natural language using NLP and sociolinguistic techniques, we show detailed, nuanced sentiments as well as common themes and discussions these sentiments are seated. Additionally, using a range of discursive analytical measures, we explore the interactions between enumerators and participants in live survey conditions, providing alternative methods to and potential field guidance for enumerator survey methods.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Survey, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

37. The UN’s Response to the COVID-19 Infodemic

Author:
Gabriel Delsol and Albert Trithart
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by a related “infodemic.” This infodemic emerged as widespread demand for information about the public health emergency was met with large volumes of false and misleading information. Many of the national and international institutions leading the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including the UN, quickly recognized that they also needed to respond to the infodemic. This led to a quick, broad-based response by a broad array of UN agencies and partners. To date, however, there has been no systematic mapping or assessment of the range of initiatives across the UN system. To begin filling that gap, this paper provides an overview of the UN system’s response to the COVID-19 infodemic across four areas: monitoring harmful information related to COVID-19; dispelling false information and providing authoritative information; building information resilience; and setting the agenda. It then assesses some of the successes and challenges of the response across four areas: external partnerships, including with governments, civil society, academia, and social media companies; coordination within the UN system; financial, human, and technological capacity; and impact assessment. The report concludes that the UN’s infodemic response finds itself at a pivotal point: Due to donor fatigue around COVID-19, funding for the infodemic response is falling even while the need for a robust infrastructure to address infodemics and other information disorders may be increasing. UN entities working to address the infodemic and other information disorders should therefore consider the following: Engaging in a consultative process to develop a shared understanding of the infodemic by defining its specific harms in relation to each of their mandates; Sustaining and building capacity to counter infodemics and other information disorders, both in communications departments and in other sections working on infodemic management; Adopting a more standardized, system-wide approach to the use of new technologies and engagement with technology platforms; and Continuing to strengthen long-term information resilience by building the capacity of governments to manage infodemics and supporting strong, independent media.
Topic:
Health, Science and Technology, United Nations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. China’s quest for innovation: progress and bottlenecks

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Robin Schindowski
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
As the Chinese economy continues to decelerate, the central government is investing heavily in innovation, doubling down on research and development (R&D) spending and STEM-oriented human capital. In this paper, we assess China’s progress so far, looking at the inputs to innovation (R&D and human capital) as well as intermediate targets, such as scientific research and patents. We then evaluate how China has fared with respect to the ultimate goal of commercialising this progress, by looking at the value-added of Chinese exports and the overall productivity of the economy. We identify three potential bottlenecks that might be hindering the translation of China’s innovation efforts into productivity growth.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Economic Growth, Innovation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

39. The hidden inequalities of digitalisation in the post-pandemic context

Author:
Cristiano Cadagnone and Maria Savona
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Digitalisation has a ‘hidden’ impact on employment, particularly on the invisible conditions of some jobs, as perceived by workers, that are relatively less explored in the literature and that could represent a substantial social cost, particularly in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. We start by summarising a few main challenges of digitalisation, with a focus on the additional challenges brought about by the pandemic, the rise of platforms and alternative work arrangements, and the current attempts to regulate these. We then discuss the hidden aspects of inequality linked to the unmeasured side effects of digitalisation. Mental health in particular should be taken into account, particularly in the post-pandemic context, which has led to a significant amount of working from home. Also, the reduction of tasks previously done in the workplace in favour of remote working might limit social interactions, creativity and innovation potential. We conclude by suggesting areas for policy interventions.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Economy, Automation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

40. Can Chinese growth defy gravity?

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Chinese growth, astounding since the beginning of the reform era, has slowed in the last decade. We offer a baseline estimate (based on the current trend) of China’s medium-term growth rate, which we project to fall to 2.4 percent by 2035. Several factors create uncertainty around this baseline. China’s rapid aging is already incorporated into our long-term growth scenario, but its impact on growth will depend on how China’s remaining urbanisation process spreads over time, how the shrinking labour supply affects labour productivity and whether the decline in total factor productivity growth, reflecting the lack of reform during the last decade and possibly the rising role of the state, can be reversed. Investment in China, for decades the largest factor in China’s growth, is expected to contribute less to growth given the increasingly low return on assets, particularly on state-led investment. The rapid piling up of public debt is also becoming a heavy burden for the Chinese economy. Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic may have left significant scarring effects, such as structurally high youth unemployment and low investment confidence. On the upside for China, the rise in human capital and research and development expenditure may support innovation and growth, but the magnitude of this effect is uncertain, because it is unclear if higher innovation will translate into higher total factor productivity, and because of the United States’s push to contain China technologically.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Economic Growth, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

41. Information Manipulation and Repression: A Theory and Evidence from the COVID-19 Response in Russia

Author:
Natalia Lamberova and Konstantin Sonin
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has called for provision of public goods and services that require a high state capacity, including producing and distributing vaccines, enforcing mask mandates, limiting potential super‐​spreader events, and so on. The rationale for public intervention was that private actions, such as getting vaccinated, wearing masks, and avoiding large gatherings, have benefits to broader society, so they are likely to be undersupplied by individuals on their own. In these circumstances, one might expect the power of the state coercing others into compliance to be beneficial. Are authoritarian leaders, less constrained by institutions and less accountable to voters, better equipped to deal with health emergencies?
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Repression, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

42. Formula for a Crisis: Protectionism and Supply Chain Resiliency—the Infant Formula Case Study

Author:
Scott Lincicome, Gabriella Beaumont-Smith, and Alfredo Carrillo Obregon
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
It has become accepted wisdom in Washington that the COVID-19 pandemic revealed how openness to international trade and investment increases U.S. vulnerability to economic shocks and contributes to widespread shortages of food, medicine, and other essential goods. This official narrative, however, ignores ample economic research showing that, while disruptions are inevitable in a modern economy, the alternative to free trade—a protectionism‐​driven onshoring of global supply chains—carries its own risks and can even heighten vulnerability by inhibiting natural market adjustments to economic shocks. The infant formula crisis, which lasted for most of 2022 and was unique to the United States, provided an unfortunate real‐​world lesson in this regard.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Free Trade, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

43. The Effects of Differential Exposure to COVID-19 on Educational Outcomes in Guatemala

Author:
Andres Ham, Emmanuel Vazquez, and Monica Yanez-Pagans
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper studies the effects of differential exposure to COVID-19 on educational outcomes in Guatemala. The government adopted a warning index (ranging from 0 to 10) to classify municipalities by infection rates in 2020, which was then used by the Ministry of Education in 2021 to establish a “stoplight” system for in-person instruction. Using administrative panel data for all students in Guatemala, the study employs a difference-in-differences strategy that leverages municipal differences over time in the warning index to estimate the effects of the pandemic on dropout, promotion, and school switching. The results show that municipalities with a higher warning index had significantly larger dropout, lower promotion rates, and a greater share of students switching from private to public schools. These effects were more pronounced during the first year of the pandemic. The findings show differential effects by the level of instruction, with greater losses for younger children in initial and primary education. The results are robust to specification choice, multiple hypothesis adjustments, and placebo experiments, suggesting that the pandemic has had heterogeneous consequences.
Topic:
Education, Government, COVID-19, and Schools
Political Geography:
Central America and Guatemala

44. Emergent Agency in a Time of COVID-19: Research report

Author:
Flippo Artuso, Katrina Barnes, Duncan Green, and Irene Guijt
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic was an unprecedented event in the modern era. Earlier studies demonstrated how ‘critical junctures’, which comprise major historical events and emergencies, often play an essential role in social change. This paper seeks to explore whether the COVID-19 pandemic would prove to be a similar pivotal moment, and what lessons and insights we could gather for positive social change. The research set out to find key insights on how individuals, communities, and organizations in civil society were responding to the pandemic in low-income populations at the intersection of multiple inequalities. These lessons could inform how donors, governments and NGOs might reshape their efforts to reduce emerging or deepening inequalities, and how civil society organisations and community-based organisations could amplify their positive impacts. Over 18 months, from September 2020 to March 2022, the ‘Emergent Agency’ research convened a global conversation between activists, development practitioners, researchers, and academics to better understand the phenomena that were taking place in response to the pandemic. The research collected more than 200 case studies and held a series of webinars and conversations in thematic clusters to uncover what these responses could teach us. The research project was enabled with funding from The Atlantic Fellows for Social and Economic Equity programme (AFSEE) of the London School of Economics.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. The Impact of the Ukrainian-Russian War on Rwanda

Author:
Jonathan R. Beloff
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The current Ukrainian-Russian war has far greater-reaching effects than what is typically reported in much of the international news media. The war has significantly impacted African development, which was already harmed during the global Covid-19 pandemic. With the pandemic seemingly over, African nations such as Rwanda hoped for increased economic development. However, the current war in Ukraine sparked increased fuel and food prices throughout the continent, which has impacted expected growth rates. This article reviews the war’s impact on the central African nation of Rwanda. It illustrates Rwandan anger about the economic implications of the war and the frustration from the nation’s inability to stop its effects.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Rwanda

46. China's Political-Economy, Foreign and Security Policy: 2023

Author:
Center for China Analysis
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
It has now been three months since the 20th Party Congress convened in Beijing on October 15. While the Congress set Xi Jinping’s ideological, strategic, and economic direction for the next five years, much has happened since then that the Chinese leadership did not anticipate. Principal among these surprises was the spontaneous eruption in late November of public protests across multiple Chinese cities against the economic and social impact of the Chinese Communist Party’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy. These protests resulted in an unprecedented U-turn on December 8 from China’s relentless pursuit of its three-year-long national pandemic containment strategy to the Party now seeking desperately to restore economic growth and social calm. This shift has in turn generated major public pressures on the Chinese health system as hospitals struggle to cope with surging caseloads and mortalities. All of these developments stand in stark contrast to the political, ideological, and nationalist self-confidence on display at the 20th Party Congress. In October, Xi Jinping swept the board by removing any would-be opponents from the Politburo and replacing them with long-standing personal loyalists. Xi also proclaimed China’s total victory over COVID-19, contrasting the Party’s success with the disarray its propaganda apparatus had depicted across the United States and the collective West. Despite faltering economic growth, Xi had doubled down in his embrace of a new, more Marxist approach to economic policy which prioritized planning over the market, national self-sufficiency over global economic integration, the centrality of the public sector over private enterprise, and a new approach to wealth distribution under the rubric of the Common Prosperity doctrine. At the same time, Xi’s 2022 Work Report, delivered at the Congress, abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s long-standing foreign policy framework that “peace and development are the principal themes of the time” and instead warned of growing strategic threats and the need for the military to be prepared for war. As part of a continuing series on China’s evolving political economy and foreign policy, this paper’s purpose is threefold: to examine the political and economic implications of this dramatic change in China’s COVID-19 strategy; to analyze what, if any, impact it may have on China’s current international posture; and to assess whether this represents a significant departure from the Party’s strategic direction set at the 20th Party Congress last October. The paper concludes that the Party changed course on COVID-19 for two reasons: (1) it feared that not doing so would threaten its unofficial social contract with the Chinese people based on long-term improvements in jobs and living standards; and (2) that a structural slowdown in growth could also undermine China’s long-term strategic competition against the United States. This paper also concludes that the stark nature of the December 8 policy backflip, together with the Chinese health system’s lack of preparedness for it, has dented Xi Jinping’s political armor for the medium term. This setback comes on top of internal criticism of Xi’s broader ideological assault on the Deng-Jiang-Hu historical economic growth formula that Xi has prosecuted since 2017, as well as Xi’s departure from Deng’s less confrontational foreign policy posture that characterized previous decades. Nonetheless, these policy errors remain manageable within Chinese elite politics, where Xi still controls the hard levers of power. Furthermore, many of these changes on both the economy and external policy are more likely to be short-to-medium term and therefore tactical in nature, rather than representing a strategic departure from the deep ideological direction laid out for the long-term in Xi’s October 2022 Work Report. While these changes to current economic and foreign policy settings are significant in their own right, there is no evidence to date that Xi Jinping’s ideological fundamentals have changed.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Political Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

47. Strengthening Regional Supply Chain Resiliency Through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)

Author:
Han-Koo Yeo and Wendy Cutler
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In recent years, supply chain disruptions have become commonplace, resulting in governments and businesses rethinking long-held strategies, such as “cost and efficiency,” “just-in-time,” and “offshoring.” Facing shortages of products ranging from personal protective equipment (PPE) to automotive semiconductors, governments have had to mobilize quickly to deal with crises, often cobbling together a series of temporary and ad hoc measures. However, it has become clear that no country can prevent or cope with these disruptions alone. A collective approach, especially among like-minded countries, can greatly enhance supply chain resiliency and security. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)1 is one of the most promising international economic negotiations for addressing supply chain issues. Launched by the Biden administration in May 2022, IPEF is a blueprint for U.S. economic engagement in the region with 14 partners representing 40% of global GDP. Of its four pillars, the Supply Chain Pillar has attracted considerable attention. In many ways, this area is a clean slate, paving the way for creative thinking on rules and cooperation mechanisms to minimize disruptions. IPEF negotiators are making meaningful progress on their supply chain work, with early harvest agreements possibly being announced in late May this year, around the time of the APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade (MRT) meeting in Detroit, Michigan. With this in mind, we recommend a series of proposals to strengthen and expand the work of IPEF, both on a sector-wide basis and on critical minerals and materials, which could serve as a pilot for work in other sectors. We recommend important elements that should be included in an “early warning system” and “crisis response mechanism” to make these tools as robust and impactful as possible. We also suggest that IPEF members agree to World Trade Organization plus rules to deter the imposition of export restrictions and facilitate customs processing and essential cross-border movement of products and people during times of supply chain shortage. Finally, we underscore the benefits of supply chain connectivity and co-investment opportunities that can be generated through work in this pillar, especially for the developing country members of IPEF. Regarding critical minerals and materials, we offer several recommendations to cooperate on supply chain mapping, as well as streamlining and harmonizing regulations and standards. Furthermore, we suggest developing a “swap system” to be drawn from the financial “currency swap” mechanisms as a collective response that encourages countries to share their stockpiles during times of severe supply crises. Finally, we propose that Washington negotiate critical minerals and materials agreements similar to the one recently signed with Japan to make other IPEF members eligible for electric vehicle tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. Our recommended policy proposals will take time to implement and could be taken up in phases. For 2023, we propose focusing on sector-wide outcomes and starting work on critical minerals and materials, which could continue into 2024. Next year would also be an opportune time to build on the cooperation mechanisms to make them more beneficial and relevant. It may also be worthwhile to consider a market access component to this effort. The IPEF Supply Chain Pillar provides a promising opportunity for the United States and its regional partners to set a new course in reshaping more resilient and secure supply chain networks.
Topic:
Economy, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

48. Chinese foreign policy in 2023: Stepping back from the brink

Author:
Thomas Eder
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
When it comes to Chinese foreign policy in 2023, decision-makers in Austria and Europe have to most importantly consider three partly interrelated and highly topical questions that are and should be preoccupying China researchers. Will China escalate its support for Russia during the war in Ukraine? Will China invade Taiwan? How will China’s protest movement and exit from Zero-COVID impact foreign policy? Further trends in China research will address the need to employ digital methods due to a lack of access for fieldwork (COVID or political restrictions) (BCCN 2022), the importance of protests more broadly (labour issues or Hong Kong democracy) (Wei and Chan 2022; Cheng et al 2022), and the fragility of a centralized system around Xi Jinping with no succession plan as Xi enters his third term as president in March 2023 (Tsang and Cheung 2021). Following Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has supported Moscow in the informational and diplomatic domain, but has remained self-interested in the economic domain, and has not shifted from previous policies in the military domain (Chestnut Greitens 2022, 751). China needs Russia as a partner in mounting a (normative) challenge to US power and the liberal international order (Johnston 2022, 1307), gaining influence in multilateral institutions (Wang and Sampson 2022, 374), and preserving the Communist Party regime (Pavel, Kirchberger and Sinjen 2022, 295). The Chinese leadership would like to see a Russian victory, and dreads a defeatinduced regime collapse in Moscow (Lo 2022). Beijing has condemned the West for provoking the war and for imposing sanctions. In the UN, China abstained or voted for Russia. At the same time, since the beginning of the war, bilateral trade has grown significantly. Yet, Chinese companies and banks have partly withdrawn or broken off ties with Russian counterparts to steer clear of secondary sanctions. Moreover, while joint military exercises continue, there is no clear evidence for arms or equipment deliveries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

49. Facing the next public health emergency: How do we know how (un)prepared we are?

Author:
Christian Haddad and Hugh Schmidt
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
In the realm of political preparedness, numerous benchmarks, metrics, and best practice models have emerged as integral sites in the ongoing debate. Taking the Global Health Security Index as a specific example, this paper delves into the advantages and disadvantages of such global security rankings. This analysis aims to explore the potential uses and drawbacks of employing metrics to evaluate and modify (inter-)national preparedness plans. Situating this discussion within the broader context of the escalating significance of crisis preparedness and management, particularly in the face of acute disruptions to vital infrastructures and the immense costs they entail, as well as their adverse impact on public health and societal safety. However, the findings of this analysis reveal a notable political and strategic risk associated with an excessive reliance on these metrics. It is important to recognize that these metrics not only rely on robust scientific methodologies but also rest upon selective assumptions about the world and the definition of threats. The case of the Global Health Security Index serves as an example, as the assumptions underpinning these metrics have proven inaccurate in the face of an actual pandemic. Consequently, overconfidence and misguided approaches to crisis preparedness have ensued. Additionally, this work offers a concise historical overview of preparedness thinking, outlines the field of Global Health Security, presents the existing metrics employed, and critically reflects on these tools. While metrics provide valuable insights, they should be approached with caution and an awareness of their limitations. By adopting a critical lens and recognizing the political dimensions inherent in these metrics, policymakers can make more informed decisions and develop more effective preparedness plans in an ever-evolving world of crises.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Public Health, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:
Global Focus

50. Leading with Resilience: COVID-19 Learnings

Author:
A. Sarah Ilchman and Mirka Martel
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
Leading With Resilience: COVID-19 Learnings from the Institute of International Education is based on interviews with IIE team members about their experiences navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. This unique publication highlights lessons learned and best practices from three years of managing IIE programs through the COVID-19 pandemic, and brings a personal lens to IIE’s work and leadership in the international education field. The paper focuses on three primary areas: Initial Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic, Program Learnings, and Organizational Perspectives. It highlights successes and opportunities for improvement across the Institute over the last three years, and brings to the forefront the creativity and flexibility of IIE’s teams in their approach to keeping programs running and participants safe as they navigated the constantly-changing landscape of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Topic:
Education, Leadership, Crisis Management, COVID-19, Management, and Work
Political Geography:
Global Focus

51. Structural Change, Income Distribution and Unemployment Related to COVID-19: An Agent-based Model

Author:
Branimir Jovanovic, Michael Landesmann, Oliver Reiter, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We study the distributional consequences of COVID-19 by using a stock-flow consistent agent-based model that captures some of the aspects of pandemic-related lockdowns. In particular, the model distinguishes between ‘essential’ and ‘non-essential’ industries, between jobs that can be done from home and jobs that must be carried out on site, and takes into account that firms need to hire a certain amount of overhead labour. Allowing for government-financed short-time working schemes and loan guarantees, we find that these policies significantly reduce the rise in firm liquidations and income inequality (the ‘Keynesian’ result). However, we also find that the absence of government policies leads to higher levels of productivity and GDP in the aftermath of the crisis, as it means that more of the less productive firms face liquidation during lockdowns (the ‘Schumpeterian’ result). The last finding must be taken with adequate caution as our model is designed to describe the short run, while statements about the long run would require the inclusion of additional features such as technological progress and the entry of new firms.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

52. Tourism in the South Caucasus region during the post-pandemic period

Author:
Murad Agayev
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
This article explores the tourism sector of the South Caucasus region in the post-pandemic period. In general, due to the pandemic, the share of the tourism sector in the global GDP has decreased by more than 2 times. In the post-pandemic period, although the share of the sector in the global GDP has increased again, it lags behind the statistics of the pre-pandemic period. Surrounded by the Black Sea from the west and the Caspian Sea from the east, the South Caucasus region has a unique nature, rich historical and cultural heritage, unique gastronomy, traditions and riches that transcend national borders.
Topic:
Tourism, GDP, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

53. An Age of Crises: Prospects for inequality and division

Author:
Roshni Menon
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Inequalities can shape, drive, and amplify crises and at the same time, be the consequence of crises. The double shock of the COVID-19 pandemic followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been accompanied by an uptick in income and social inequalities. Moreover, a world enveloped in a series of crises has become the grim backdrop for many of the current discourses on how to solve salient world problems. The complexity and force of how each individual crisis overlaps and interacts with, and sometimes worsens the impact of other crises—including rising levels of inequality and exclusion—is profound and damaging, requiring careful analysis of both consequences and solutions. For instance, surging inflation rates, which began in 2021, as well as the food and energy crises set off largely by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have precipitated and worsened the debt crisis in many lower income countries. Combined with the existential threat of climate change and related and prevalent extreme climate events, a perfect and potent storm of events have been set in motion: even if aspects of today’s cost-of-living crisis wane, their ripple effects will continue to reverberate, in some instances setting off political instability and social unrest in parts of the world. The lessons learned from these crises, and their interaction with inequality and exclusion will be critical to better prepare for the future, and to break the deadly spiral of crises and rising inequality. While disasters—both those created by people and generated by nature—have increasingly become a daily reality for many in different parts of the world, policies at the global, regional, and national levels, have yet to catch up with this new reality. Looking across six areas—food and fuel shortages, inflation, debt distress, extreme climate-related events, and political unrest—there are very few countries that escape the reach of at least one crisis. However, more alarmingly, many countries are exposed to multiple and compounding levels of economic, social, and environmental shock; which can intersect with underlying inequalities and vulnerabilities such that a vicious cycle of income inequality, increasing social stratification, and discontent spreads across societies and generations. New research from the Pathfinders team shows that in those countries for which complete data exists across six crises (90 in total), eight countries are at risk for being impacted by all crises at the same time. 72 out of these 90 countries (or 80 percent) are at high or moderate risk of suffering from at least three crises at the same time. If we limit the analysis to five crises (food price shock, inflation, extreme climate events, debt distress, and protests), 10 out of the 134 countries with complete data are at high or moderate risk of suffering from all five crises and 86 countries (65 percent) from at least three crises. This number may even be an underestimate as typically lower income countries have less capacity to collect data and tend to deal with multiple crises arising from debt and cost-of-living issues. In response to these multiple crises (or polycrisis), urgent, integrated, and coordinated policy interventions are needed, including even greater cooperation and commitment at the global level. Without a sharp change of course, a renewed recommitment to multilateralism and bolder action to address root causes, there will be little change for the better. There is an opportunity for committed countries to advocate for sustained and urgent action to respond to the immediate humanitarian needs of a great majority of the world’s population. Policy solutions can be geared towards the shorter and longer terms: The first includes an urgent set of instruments aimed at reducing suffering as soon as possible and a second set focused on achieving longer-term structural transformation to reduce vulnerability and promote sustainability.
Topic:
Inequality, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54. Labour Market Flows and Gender Differentials in Urban Unemployment Over the Pandemic

Author:
Paaritosh Nath
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Utilising data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey, we estimate quarterly changes in urban labour market flows over the period 2018 to 2022 and the impact on unemployment rates for men and women. Our analysis provides non-intuitive explanations for established findings as well as pointing out important questions for further study. Both men and women’s unemployment rates have reduced in 2022 compared to 2018, showing rapid reductions following the high levels reached during the lockdown. Women’s unemployment rates have consistently been higher than men throughout this period. The gap between men and women’s unemployment rates reduced during the lockdown, but have shown signs of increasing since 2021, even as unemployment rates have fallen. For women, flows from the labour force to non-participation play a larger role in explaining changes in unemployment rates as compared to men. Flows from the labour force to non-participation, however, have reduced since the pandemic, providing an explanation as to why labour force participation rates have increased, namely, women staying for longer in the labour force rather than more women entering it. Despite rising labour force participation rates, the gender gap in unemployment rates have risen, in contrast to developed economies.
Topic:
Urban, Unemployment, COVID-19, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Global Focus

55. The Great Supply Chain Shift from China to South Asia?

Author:
Ganeshan Wignaraja
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Global supply chains connect world industry and international trade in manufactures. East Asia’s dominance with China as the preferred assembly hub in global supply chains has brought unprecedented regional prosperity, but South Asia remains a latecomer. However, pandemic-related and post-pandemic continuing disruptions to supply chains and slowing growth are being keenly felt, dampening China’s attractiveness. In an uncertain global economy, increasingly footloose foreign investors are looking for alternative production locations. Is it South Asia’s turn to prosper through supply chains in this uncertain world? This is the topical public policy question facing India and the others in South Asia. This paper discusses the concept of global supply chains, the industrial rise of East Asia, drivers of supply chain relocation from China, South Asia’s prospects, India as a complementary hub and policy lessons from East Asia’s industrial success. For the purposes of this paper, South Asia is broadly defined as the India and its contiguous countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Monetary Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Industrialization, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, Asia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

56. Radical Steps Are Essential to Jump-Starting the Replacement of the Flawed US Money Regime

Author:
Brendan Brown
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
A previous policy memo argued that flaws in the actual US money regime are responsible for the Great Pandemic Inflation.1 Now that reported inflation has been falling, some of us might imagine that addressing these flaws has become a non-urgent matter. After all, great supply shocks tend to come rarely. But such complacence does not fit the facts. The case for getting rid of the present rotten monetary regime is not simply based on the argument that it has malfunctioned so severely during the pandemic and war supply shock. That malfunctioning continues into the present, where there is now positive supply side news (the pandemic dislocation is fading, and a natural gas glut has emerged despite the continuing Russia-Ukraine War). The Federal Reserve and other central banks, still trying to navigate policy in an anchorless monetary system by choosing a path for short-term interest rates, are stumbling from one huge blunder to another, even if they have a rare lucky stretch in between. Beyond the woes of how the 2 percent inflation standard performed during the supply shock and subsequent supply restoration, this regime should be held responsible for a range of economic and social consequences that predate the pandemic and war. These include malinvestment (poor allocation of capital due to corrupted signaling in markets), advancement of monopoly capitalism, bloated government outlays, and punitive monetary taxation (in the form of inflation tax or monetary repression tax), all of which take their toll. Instead of enjoying a top-quality money with all its benefits, individuals have had to put up with a poor money and all its related costs, particularly the ongoing danger of serious loss of purchasing power.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

57. Ilusión de la verdad y fake news: Las mentiras repetidas de Hitler, Trump, el independentismo catalán y los bulos de la COVID-19

Author:
Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La investigación en psicología ha mostrado que tendemos a dar mayor veracidad a aquella información que recibimos de manera repetida y reiterada. Este sesgo cognitivo, denominado efecto de ilusión de verdad o de verdad ilusoria, se basa en la mayor facilidad que tenemos los seres humanos para procesar cognitivamente la información que nos resulta familiar. En este artículo se describe este sesgo cognitivo y su relación con la propagación de noticias falsas en determinados contextos y acontecimientos sociohistóricos, como instrumento para confundir y manipular a la opinión pública. Entre estos acontecimientos podemos citar las mentiras difundidas por la Administración Bush en 2003 en torno a la supuesta posesión de armas de destrucción masiva por parte de Irak; el uso indiscriminado de fakes por el expresidente de los Estados Unidos, Donald Trump; la campaña de distribución de información falsa por parte del independentismo catalán; y la propagación incontrolada de fakes y bulos en nuestro país durante la pandemia de COVID-19.
Topic:
Public Opinion, COVID-19, Disinformation, Fake News, and Cognitive Bias
Political Geography:
Spain, Global Focus, and United States of America

58. Ending the HIV epidemic in Europe: Moving toward the 2030 sustainable development goals

Author:
Elizabeth Kuiper and Danielle Brady
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Despite significant progress, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic continues to pose a public health threat in Europe. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated challenges by disrupting healthcare services and diverting attention and resources away from HIV prevention and treatment. Stigma and discrimination against those affected by HIV persist and are additional obstacles, slowing down progress to end the HIV epidemic. This Discussion Paper explores the current HIV prevalence in Europe, identifies barriers and challenges, and offers policy recommendations to overcome these obstacles and meet the sustainable development goals targets in Europe. The Paper emphasises the need for renewed political commitment and cooperation among the EU and its member states to prioritise HIV as well as for strong partnership and collaboration between authorities and stakeholders concerned, ultimately striving for success in ending the epidemic.
Topic:
HIV/AIDS, European Union, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

59. Is the European Health Union ready for the challenges of the 21st century?

Author:
Elizabeth Kuiper and Danielle Brady
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic laid bare national health systems' unpreparedness and structural weaknesses. It also emphasised the disparities in national capabilities among European countries and the lack of a common European approach against cross-border health threats. As we enter a post-pandemic era, this Discussion Paper assesses the proposals under the European Health Union and sets out recommendations to address the identified shortcomings. These include: Adopting a more holistic approach by appointing a Vice President for Well-being. Strengthening crisis preparedness by elevating HERA to an agency. Promoting access and affordability by extending joint procurement. Strengthening the European health workforce by tackling shortages and addressing skills gaps. Mitigating the cost of inaction by increasing investment in health. Ensuring planetary health by promoting a Green European Health Union. Promoting Europe’s status as a global leader in health data by harmonising health data regulations with the European Health Data Space. Safeguarding the EU’s strategic autonomy by implementing the Versailles Declaration and strengthening supply chain resilience. Building on the EU’s Global Health Strategy by exploring global partnerships. This Paper builds on the findings of the European Policy Centre’s Task Force on the European Health Union. The multistakeholder Task Force was held under the auspices of the EPC's Social Europe and Well-being programme with the kind support of Amgen, MSD, Johnson&Johnson, SITRA and EIT Health.
Topic:
European Union, Public Health, COVID-19, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe

60. Planetary health: A holistic vision for people and the planet

Author:
Danielle Brady
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The nexus between health and the environment has been underscored by crises such as COVID-19 and the climate crisis. As awareness of policy interlinkages grows, so does the need for more coordinated EU and national policymaking. Calls for a more holistic approach have long been recognised, but the pandemic has further emphasised the importance of dismantling existing barriers in policymaking to improve the health status of people, animals, and the planet. This Discussion Paper, funded by Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund, advocates for implementing a planetary health approach across all levels of governance to encourage transdisciplinary action and puts forward ten recommendations: Pursue coordinated policymaking by breaking down silos. Appoint an Executive Vice President for the Well-being Economy. Plan and implement national roadmaps and establish common indicators. Create best practices platforms. Adopt planetary health for health systems. Promote education on planetary health. Adopt a European-wide communication campaign. Invest in research and innovation. Foster the integration of the European Health Data Space with future data spaces. Work with international partners to adopt a global planetary health approach. Planetary health offers many benefits for health and the environment. However, without concentrated efforts to move beyond the traditional siloed approach to policymaking, the benefits may never be realised.
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

61. Geographical Simulation Analysis for CADP 3.0

Author:
Ikumo Isono, Satoru Kumagai, and Keita Oikawa
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The economic impact of the development of transport and digital infrastructure and the adoption of energy-saving technologies envisaged in the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan 3.0 (CADP 3.0) was analysed using the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) and Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM). This infrastructure development and technology adoption will affect all industries and change the structure of the economy as the basis for rejuvenated and advanced industries such as agriculture, automotives, medicine, and pharmaceuticals. By combining this infrastructure development and technology adoption, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia could achieve high economic impacts and geographical inclusiveness. The Lao People’s Democratic Republic will obtain the greatest economic impact as it transitions from a landlocked to a land-linked country. Cambodia will also reap significant benefits from upgrading information and communication technology. The simulation results thus recommend the implementation of the CADP 3.0 strategy for both ASEAN and individual Member States.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Simulation
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

62. The Global Economic Outlook and the State of Indonesia

Author:
Ivana Markus and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The global economy is facing a perfect storm as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, prolonged geopolitical tensions, soaring inflation, and tightening monetary policy. A darkening future has been projected and the worst is yet to come. Amid global uncertainty, governments have become less aggressive in their budget spending, while high inflation has led many central banks to tighten their monetary policy. Furthermore, the pandemic has left widespread scarring effects, such as unemployment, poverty, and inequality, particularly on vulnerable groups. Global challenges and lower economic growth of the major economies will also affect Indonesia’s economic conditions, as the country may experience slower growth as a spillover from its major trading partners. It is important for the world and Indonesia to address these challenges, particularly the scarring effects, through multilateral solidarity and better maintenance of prudent fiscal policy.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, Investment, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

63. The COVID-19 Pandemic and World Machinery Trade Network

Author:
Kozo Kiyota
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In light of the importance of the machinery trade in global trade, this study examines whether the patterns of machinery exports changed significantly after the COVID-19 pandemic. Frameworks of network analysis and structural break analysis are applied to monthly level bilateral export data from January 2016 to March 2022. The main findings are threefold. First, positive structural change is found in exports in major machinery-exporting countries. Second, negative structural change in centrality is found in Japan and some ASEAN Member States (AMS), which implies a decline in the relative importance of these countries in the global machinery network. Third, the decline in Japanese centrality was not caused by the decline in export values or number of destination countries. Rather, it is attributable to the decline in the centrality of Japan’s export destination countries such as AMS. Noting that Japan has a relatively strong trade relationship with AMS, these results together suggest that the negative shock of the pandemic spread throughout the supply chain, which led to the decline in the relative importance of some countries – such as Japan – in the global machinery trade network.
Topic:
Exports, Trade, ASEAN, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Southeast Asia

64. The Effects of the United States-China Trade War During the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Supply Chains: Evidence from Viet Nam

Author:
Duc Anh Dang and Ngoc Anh Tran
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The trade war between the United States (US) and China has affected their bilateral trade as well as that with other countries. This study investigates how Vietnamese firms performed during the COVID-19 pandemic under the shadow of this trade war. The change in the log of Vietnamese exports to the US from 2017 to 2020 is used to measure the impact of the trade war, and the change in the log of Chinese exports to the US is then used as an instrument for the Vietnamese export change during the same period. It is found that firms that faced more trade war exposure increased their investment, profit, and value added, which may be due to the market exit of unproductive firms. Moreover, the trade war impact is more pronounced for large firms. Foreign-invested firms gained less from trade war exposure. The pandemic weakened the trade war effect on firm performances; however, it exacerbated the trade tension effect on foreign-trade firms.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Investment, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

65. The Role of Export Incentives and Bank Credit on the Export Survival of Firms in India During COVID-19

Author:
Radeef Chundakkadan, Subash Sasidharan, and Ketan Reddy
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The aim of this study is threefold. First, we analyse the relationship between export incentives on firm survival during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis; second, we explore the nexus between bank dependency and survival in the export market; and finally, we test the complementarity and substitutability effect of export incentives and bank dependency on export market survival. We use firm-level information on Indian firms from 2016 to 2022, covering 4 years of the pre-pandemic period and 2 years of the post-pandemic period. We find that both export incentives and bank dependency improve the probability of export market survival in the post-pandemic period. These results are applicable to both the manufacturing and services sector, stand-alone firms, and business group affiliates. Our results remain robust while employing alternative proxies for the primary variable of interest and different methodologies.
Topic:
Business, Banks, Exports, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

66. Global Value Chain Disruptions and Firm Survival During COVID-19: An Empirical Investigation

Author:
Sasidaran Gopalan and Ketan Reddy
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Despite the rapid acceleration of countries participating in global value chains (GVCs) over the last three decades, global GVC participation rates have plateaued since the global financial crisis (GFC) and worsened with the onset of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The massive supply chain disruptions induced by the pandemic not only appeared to expose the vulnerabilities of GVCs, largely because of concentration risks, but also contributed to a dramatic decline in trade flows globally. As countries around the world emerge from the shadows of the pandemic, there is growing academic and policy interest in deciphering how countries should build effective strategies that facilitate firm survival, especially viewed from the lens of resilience and robustness. Considering this background, in this paper, we propose to make a twofold contribution to this literature. First, we undertake a comprehensive firm-level investigation (in a cross-country setting) to ascertain whether firms engaged in GVCs relative to non-GVC firms exhibited better survival instincts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, we uncover the heterogeneity of the shock across sectors and industries, considering the varied sectoral/industrial exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic. We document that GVC firms showcased greater robustness and resilience during the pandemic phase compared with other firms. Our results also show that the degree of resilience and robustness varies significantly by industry.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Trade, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers

Author:
Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammad A. Yildirim
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

68. Coming to Grips with Poverty in Africa

Author:
Mark Wentling
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Reducing poverty has been at the heart of U.S. foreign assistance in dozens of low-income countries for more than a half-century. Despite U.S. foreign policy objectives, much work, and hundreds of billions of assistance dollars expended, the poorest of the poor have not advanced. While some low-income countries have made some small progress, after decades of aid most are still in the bottom ranks of absolute poverty. All the countries in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category have more poor people than ever before. Thirty-seven of forty-seven of these LDC countries are in Africa. Although a handful of countries have graduated from LDC status, this disturbing ranking remains basically unchanged since the LDC list was established by the UN General Assembly in 1971. This unchanging list of extremely poor countries tells us that a better understanding of poverty is needed, especially in Africa, to make U.S assistance programs more effective. While Asian countries have made remarkable progress over the past 50 years in reducing the number of poor, the absolute number in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to grow. People in SSA are more than twice as likely to live in poverty than in South Asia, the next poorest region in the world. The World Bank reported there were 284 million Africans living in extreme poverty in 1990; this number had risen to 433 million in 2018 and continues to rise. The percentage of the population living in poverty in SSA is slowly decreasing, but this decline is overcome by population growth. The COVID-19 pandemic pushed tens of millions of people below the poverty line of $1.90 per day. Climate change, rising crime, inflation, and violent conflict are forcing many more millions below this line. Governments that are unable to provide basic services and struggle to cope with high levels of national debt compound the problem. The 2030 UN targets for eradicating poverty will not be met.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Poverty, Foreign Aid, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa

69. HIV, the Legacy of America’s Response, and Lessons for Future Outbreaks

Author:
Alisha Smith-Arthur
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
As I stood in line (safety distanced) to receive a COVID test before returning home to the US after a trip to Cote d’Ivoire in 2022, I was able to see and reflect upon the enduring legacy of the American public health diplomacy effort to fight the global pandemic of HIV. The testing site had the unmistakable dual-flag PEPFAR (The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, announced by George W. Bush in 2003) logo outside, indicating that the testing equipment (and likely the training for the personnel inside) came via a PEPFAR project. I’ve seen similar stamps on rural labs and remote health posts across the countries I’ve worked in (as well as on the airport welcome signs of many a friendly health worker who has readily included me in their work), and it always serves to remind me of the common goals we are working towards in these health diplomacy projects.
Topic:
HIV/AIDS, Diplomacy, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

70. China’s New Historic “Leap” Narrative: Coverup for the Zero-COVID Policy Failure?

Author:
Dominik Mierzejewski
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
With Chinese authorities having shifted away from a zero-COVID policy at the end of November, the country now faces an unresolved dilemma as to its future approach to economic development and public health policies. A critical question is: will the Dengist doctrine of “Reform and Opening-up” return to the political discourse? But the most critical issue revealed by People’s Daily is how Chinese propaganda has portrayed the recent chaos, as well as how it has promoted General Secretary Xi Jinping’s image in spite of the failure of the zero-COVID policy. These questions are of particular importance ahead of the second plenum of the 20th Party Congress, which is planned for February 2023. A brief analysis of the theoretical section of the People’s Daily, “An Intersection of Thoughts” (思想纵横), throughout December 2022, may offer some preliminary answers. The critical points introduced in People’s Daily indicate how China is likely to be led moving forward, with major features such as governing within a “one way” approach and a Chinese-style modernization process representing what is seen as a rational path of development going forward.
Topic:
Governance, Public Health, COVID-19, and Zero-COVID
Political Geography:
China and Asia

71. Cooperative Federalism in India: Resetting the Fiscal Architecture: Lessons for India

Author:
Kandarp Patel and Anoop Singh
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic brought significant challenges to public finances, raising global debt to record-high levels and necessitating the suspension of fiscal rules across the globe. As we approach the aftermath of the pandemic, the challenge is to reset the pillars of the fiscal architecture and better manage public finances across all levels of government—as the lynchpin of any successful growth strategy in a post-pandemic world. This situation offers an opportunity to rethink fiscal rules and make fiscal policy more agile in responding to crises, without undermining fiscal sustainability. A risk-based medium-term fiscal framework that combines standards, rules, and strengthened institutions would strike a better balance between flexibility and credibility. Overall, for India to achieve its full potential for economic growth and development, it needs to improve the quality and efficiency of public spending and financial management across all levels of government. In doing this, India should consider moving toward a new principle-based fiscal strategy, complemented with public financial management reforms and setting up an independent fiscal institution. This process will need to be undertaken in close collaboration with the States.
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, COVID-19, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

72. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Socio-Cultural and Political Implications for Pakistan Amid Covid19 and the Way Forward

Author:
Mubeen Adnan and Reema Murad
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Through the ‘game changer’ project of China Pakistan Economic Corridor, China is aiming to stabilize its western part by promoting investment and economic development in its neighbour to the West, Pakistan, which will lead to a boost in the Pakistani economy through investments in infrastructure and construction of gas and oil pipeline. There is also the aim of reducing extremism in the Xinjiang region. However, there are several social, cultural and political changes that the project has the potential to bring about in Pakistan. This research work has made an attempt to understand the variousimplications of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor on Pakistan as well as how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted CPEC and the path ahead as the world slowly transitions out of COVID-19. This research paper has used secondary sources in order to answer these pertinent topics. Major opportunities which Pakistan and China have gained through this ChinaPakistan economic Corridor as well as some challenges are also discussed.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Investment, Economic Development, COVID-19, and Opportunity
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

73. The Historical Significance of Epidemics in the Middle East

Author:
Benan Grams
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Just as the world was starting to recover from its battle with the still new and relatively unknown Covid-19 SARS virus, an old horrific disease has returned to the Arab world earlier this year, threatening to unleash another human disaster. In late August, cholera broke out in Syria’s northeastern region around the Euphrates. It quickly spread to other parts of the country, and by early October had become a regional epidemic, with cholera outbreaks reported in neighboring Lebanon. Cholera now threatens to reach other areas in the Middle East and beyond, accelerating it from an epidemic impacting a limited geographic area to a global pandemic hitting multiple regions around the world While cholera was the nineteenth century’s most dreaded disease, it was neither the first nor the only pandemic to impact societies around the world. Deadly diseases like plague and smallpox had terrorized the Middle East, Asia, Europe, and other parts of the world for centuries. Plague epidemics (طاعون), which recurred in the Levant, Mesopotamia, Anatolia and Egypt until the first half of the nineteenth century, were addressed by the prophet Mohammad and became a subject of debate in Islamic tradition. While plague targeted various segments of society, smallpox was a disease that killed primarily children. Those who survived it were left with scars but also immunity for life. Other documented infectious diseases like measles, tuberculosis, malaria, syphilis, typhoid, and typhus also killed hundreds of thousands of people, weakened armies, caused displacement, and caused economic devastation by leaving ripe agricultural crops unharvested.
Topic:
History, COVID-19, Epidemic, and Plague
Political Geography:
Middle East

74. Kosovo COVID-19 Management

Author:
Plator Avdiu, Donika Elshani, and Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The purpose of this research is to provide a general overview of the manifestation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kosovo and the overall management of the pandemic by relevant institutions. The analysis is based on data collected through publicly available information, national statistics, news articles, as well as research reports by local non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and international organizations and missions in the country. The COVID-19 pandemic of the novel coronavirus was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. It quickly spread to other parts of the world, leading to the World Health Organization declaring a pandemic on March 11, 202012. Countries across the globe implemented various measures to control the spread of the virus, including lockdowns, travel restrictions and mask mandates. The COVID-19 vaccine was soon developed, and the vaccine roll out began in the first months of 2021, with many countries still being in the process of vaccinating their populations. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on Kosovo, as it has had in many countries around the world. The first cases of COVID-19 in Kosovo were reported in March 202014, and since then the country has implemented measures such as lockdowns, mask mandates, and travel restrictions to try to control the spread of the virus. Kosovo faced many challenges in its efforts to control the spread of the virus, including limited healthcare resources, vaccine hesitancy, political instability and economic hardship, to name a few.15 The COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in Kosovo began in the first months of 2021 and was implemented with a phased approach, whereby some groups, such as healthcare workers, the elderly, and persons with underlying conditions, were given priority, before vaccinating the rest of the population. AstraZeneca and Pfizer BioNTech were the two vaccinees administered in Kosovo. These vaccines were secured through various sources, including through the COVAX facility.
Topic:
Public Policy, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

75. China’s Changing COVID-19 Policies: Market and Public Health

Author:
Zhun Xu
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
After the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, China took fast and decisive measures to successfully contain the spread of the virus within its borders. While the rest of the world saw huge human and social costs in the pandemic, the Chinese mainland for about two years was largely free from COVID. The zero-COVID model, however, met great challenges by early 2022. Despite some efforts to save the zero-COVID model, in November 2022, the Chinese government abruptly abandoned its signature COVID controls during the pandemic and switched to the opposite. This article reviews the evolution of the Chinese COVID policies and places the dramatic turns in the context of the changing Chinese political economy. The findings show that the shifting class interests and actions were an important force behind China’s retreat from zero- COVID.
Topic:
Markets, Political Economy, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

76. Health Financing in Times of Multiple Crises: Analysis and Recommendations

Author:
Christoph Strupat, Pooja Balasubramanian, Srinivasa Reddy Srigiri, and Anna-Katharina Hornidge
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of health systems and highlights the need for renewed efforts to finance pandemic preparedness, prevention and response (PPR) mechanisms, and universal health coverage (UHC). Two lessons emerge from this global health challenge. First, it has shown that global problems need global solutions, as well as the agency of local and national actors to make them work, so it is recommended that public health be considered a global public good. This requires solidarity between rich and poor countries to attain a globally “highest attainable standard” for managing pandemics and other public health emergencies. The provision of such a global public good requires substantial public resources. Furthermore, the focus should not only be on preventing the spread of diseases but also on detecting and fighting infectious diseases at their source. The second lesson is that prevention is a good investment, as it costs less than remedial interventions at later stages. Health systems can be considered as the means by which health priorities, such as pandemic PPR and UHC, can be operationalised. Studies show that health systems that could effectively leverage both robust health security core capacities (e.g. laboratories) and fundamental UHC interventions (e.g. accessible health facilities) were often in a better position to protect their citizens against the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on the landscape of health financing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), it becomes clear that during the COVID-19 pandemic there was a substantial increase in international health financing. However, continued high out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) in LMICs points to a structural imbalance in health financing, which is one of the major barriers for achieving SDG3. Further contribution from international development assistance and an increase in domestic government expenditure by LMICs through improved mobilisation of domestic resources is therefore impera-tive. Funding gaps to achieve PPR and UHC in LMICs are small in relation to the projected costs of a pandemic such as COVID-19. However, as global debt levels soar, fiscal spaces to close these funding gaps become smaller. The following policy options for governments and international development partners should be considered to protect and improve spending on health in times of shrinking fiscal spaces: reallocation within budgets towards health, better priority-setting of health financing, and greater use of debt-to-health swaps, health taxes and national health insurance schemes. Importantly, investment in health is critical not just for the health benefits, but also because of the positive socio-economic impacts that result, in excess of the level of investment. Improved well-being and health outcomes translate into higher productivity and income, with a benefit–cost ratio of nine for low-income countries and 20 for lower-middle income countries. Given the high rates of unemployment in many LMICs, investments that create jobs in the healthcare sector are also beneficial for other sectors. Evidence shows that for every healthcare professional job that is created, 3.4 jobs are created on average in other sectors. As a large proportion of healthcare workers is female, these new jobs can be an opportunity for young women, in particular, and can help to promote female empowerment and gender equality. Altogether, these long-term benefits affirm that investment in health can enable large spillover effects on the social and economic dimensions of sustainable development and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Finance, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

77. Resilience of Faith: Post-Covid Religious Trends and the Effect of Ecclesiastical Policy in the United States

Author:
Angela Cools, Carlos Esparza, and Jiwon Park
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This paper delves into the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and related policies on religious attendance, with a particular focus on Catholic church attendance in the United States. The study utilizes smartphone location data from SafeGraph Inc. to track weekly religious attendance trends from 2019 through the end of 2022. This approach offers a comprehensive analysis of how attendance patterns evolved during the pandemic. Notably, the study leverages two distinctive features of the Catholic Church: its division into 175 U.S. territorial dioceses, each overseen by a bishop, and the requirement for members to attend Sunday Mass. The study reveals several significant findings. Firstly, it highlights the dramatic decline in religious service attendance following the outbreak of Covid-19. In comparison to 2019 attendance levels, Catholic church visits lagged behind restaurants and other religious institutions throughout 2020 and 2021. However, by 2022, both Catholic and non-Catholic religious attendance had rebounded, returning to approximately 90% of their 2019 levels by October 2022. Secondly, the paper explores the impact of religious policies, focusing on the lifting of dispensations that temporarily exempted Catholics from the requirement to attend Sunday Mass during the pandemic. The study uncovers that dispensation lifting resulted in a 4 percentage point increase in weekend church attendance compared to the 2019 baseline. Notably, this boost was short-lived, lasting for only six weeks following the lifting of dispensations. It's worth mentioning that the effect of lifting dispensations was smaller in magnitude compared to the impact of church reopenings, which were associated with a 6 to 10 percentage point increase in attendance. Thirdly, the study emphasizes the lack of a significant correlation between the lifting of dispensations and changes in visits to non-Catholic religious institutions or restaurants. This suggests that the impact of dispensation lifting on church attendance was independent of other reopening events. In the broader context, this paper contributes to the understanding of religious practice in the face of adverse events, such as natural disasters or economic crises. It distinguishes itself by using actual behavioral data, offering high-frequency insights into the dynamics of religious practice, and benefiting from a large sample size. Additionally, the study sheds light on the impact of religious policies on individual behavior, particularly through the novel exogenous variation introduced by the lifting of dispensations in U.S. Catholic dioceses. Furthermore, this research aligns with the broader body of literature on the effects of social distancing measures on mobility patterns. It contributes valuable insights into mobility within religious institutions, contrasting it with mobility trends in restaurants and bars.
Topic:
Religion, Catholic Church, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

78. The Relationship between COVID-19 Entry Restrictions and Immigration

Author:
Youngook Jang and Dong-Hee Joe
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between COVID-19 entry restrictions and dependence on immigrants. In response to the global COVID-19 pandemic, countries worldwide implemented international travel restrictions to reduce the entry of infected individuals. These measures included entry and exit bans, mandatory quarantine of travelers, and vaccination requirements, significantly altering global mobility patterns. Despite their proven effectiveness, entry restrictions also impose substantial economic costs, particularly evident in the form of reduced immigration and subsequent labor shortages in sectors reliant on immigrant labor. We introduce a theoretical framework to shed light on the factors influencing the determination of entry restrictions, encompassing both health and economic considerations. Empirical analyses reveal that countries heavily dependent on foreign labor are inclined to adopt less stringent border controls, balancing the economic costs associated with reduced immigrant workforce. Moreover, we argue that the strength of entry restrictions is determined by a government’s capacity to manage infection waves through means other than entry bans. Finally, we offer policy implications based on our research, on how to control the spread of infectious diseases while minimizing the costs imposed by reducing immigration and the cost imposed on the immigrants themselves.
Topic:
Immigration, Border Control, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

79. A Review of Changes in the Global Value Chain of Latin America

Author:
Sungwoo Hong
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Based on the findings of the value chain analysis conducted on major Latin American countries, it suggests that these countries may have derived certain economic benefits. This can be attributed to the increased exports to the United States and China, where Latin American countries served as substitute countries for imports during the intensifying competition between the two nations. Amidst the U.S.-China hegemony race and the supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a notable shift in focus. Particularly, the United States is actively working to establish secure and stable supply chains, primarily centered around its own country and allied nations, with the intention of reducing dependence on China. As part of this process, the United States advocates for reshoring or near-shoring, which involves relocating production facilities to its home country or neighboring nations. Additionally, the U.S. is implementing various incentives to support this objective. If near-shoring takes place in Latin America, they can be regarded as favorable locations for establishing a foothold to access North America or securing key minerals. Additionally, Latin American countries with substantial backward linkages should be prioritized in trade with the United States. Among them, Mexico and Brazil, which exhibit relatively high levels of backward linkage within Latin America, are considered suitable hubs due to their capacity for generating significant foreign added value in their exports to the United States.
Topic:
Economics, Trade, Global Value Chains, COVID-19, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

80. What Role Can Immigration Play in Addressing Current and Future Labor Shortages?

Author:
Kate Hooper
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Labor shortages are a pressing concern for policymakers and employers alike in many countries around the world. As pandemic-era economic disruptions have collided with longer-running workforce trends, these shortages have become more acute but also hard to predict. Immigration can play an important role in addressing labor shortages—and in some economies and sectors, already does. But there is a robust debate about the extent to which countries should rely on admitting immigrants to address these shortages, and how this should be balanced against other, more far-reaching policy interventions in education and training, labor, and social policy that would boost the labor market participation of resident native- and foreign-born workers. This policy brief examines how immigration can help address labor shortages, the trade-offs that governments must navigate, and current and potential approaches to factoring labor shortages into economic immigration policies. The brief is part of a series of policy analyses and blueprints being generated under MPI’s Global Skills and Talent Initiative, which is exploring the role that immigration can play in addressing workforce needs and skills gaps in rapidly evolving labor markets.
Topic:
Education, Immigration, Employment, Vocational Training, COVID-19, Recruitment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

81. Chengdu Youth

Author:
Zhang Feng and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Zhang Feng is an influential blogger and bookstore owner from Chengdu, who closely observes trends among urban youth. In his city, there is far more independent thought and activism among young people than is generally recognized in the outside world. The "White Paper Movement" that occurred last November to protest strict Covid-19 lockdown measures was a rare public manifestation of deeper and longer trends. Young people are resisting the politicization, ideological rigidity, and organizational rigidity of Chinese life, and pursue their own lifestyles with an emphasis on aesthetics. The fact that they worked out ways to support friends who were arrested for the White Paper Movement is a sign of how urban culture is evolving. Zhang Feng will describe the mood among middle class citizens and youth in Chengdu during and after the Covid lockdown in that city
Topic:
Culture, Youth, Ideology, COVID-19, Activism, and Politicization
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Chengdu

82. Using Real-Time Google Search Activity to Target Emergency Fiscal Stimulus

Author:
John Kearns
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Congress transferred nearly $1 trillion USD to state and local governments between April 2020 and March 2021 to support vaccination efforts, keep schools open, and sustain economic recovery. As of March 2023, much of this money remained unspent, raising questions about the underlying process of determining the size and distribution of aid. This paper explores how Google search data and machine learning models can work in real-time to assist policy makers in evaluating fiscal policy proposals. These results are among the first pieces of evidence that economic models can feasibly integrate alternative sources of data to provide real-time estimates of economic activity at the state level. The author’s models provide reliable and accurate estimates of state and local fiscal need and indicate the states that need relief the most months ahead of official estimates. The more tailored models presented in this paper could lead to more equitable and effective outcomes at a fraction of the cost to taxpayers when used to inform emergency fiscal stimulus distribution in the future.
Topic:
Economics, Public Policy, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

83. Model of the Dimensions of Threat Perception: Results of Experimental Verification Based on the Sense of Endangerment Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Bogdan Ćwik
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article addresses the problem of the limited effectiveness of the perception of warning signals related to threats. The subject is an element of the search for methods to improve the efficiency of risk monitoring systems. The problem with these systems is the fact that, despite the existing standards, binding norms and regulations, as well as numerous organisational, technological, and institutional security measures, unexpected negative events still occur, and their consequences include not only significant losses but also numerous human tragedies. The article presents a model of the efficiency of the perception of threats that identifies a 9-dimensional vector of the “significance of the perceived threat”. Each of the presented dimensions reflects a specific factor that influences the significance of the perceived threat. The research was based on the feeling of endangerment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic among the citizens of Poland. The threat was particularly noticeable in the first phases of the pandemic, i.e., in March and April 2020 and October-December (the second wave of the pandemic).
Topic:
COVID-19 and Threat Perception
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

84. Mercosur and Post-COVID 19 Exit Strategies in Terms of Sustainable Development: Renewable Energies and Climate Change

Author:
Amalia Margarita Stuhldreher and Virginia Morales Olmos
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
COVID 19 affected the projection of the SDGs, with debates on a post-pandemic "green" exit. With a multilevel perspective, this paper addresses the evolution of energy policies in MERCOSUR countries, focusing on renewable energies and climate change. Uruguay's case is discussed, in contrast with Argentina and Brazil. Points of convergence in divergent situations are considered, given the commercial exchanges of electric energy between Uruguay and its MERCOSUR partners. Investments in renewable energies in Uruguay, its current situation, and its prospects are analyzed, considering the position of the Block and an eventual scheme of regional climate governance in the future.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Sustainable Development Goals, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, COVID-19, and Mercosur
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and South America

85. Morocco Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since the pandemic hit Morocco in March 2020, the country has been facing crises on multiple fronts, including the public health crisis, the economic crisis, inflation, and the historic drought. Internationally, Morocco made several diplomatic gains in the wake of the United States’ recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. In an historic reversal of its previous stance, Spain declared that the Moroccan autonomy plan is “the most serious, realistic and credible” solution to the crisis. Multiple other countries opened consulates in Western Sahara.1 2 Moroccans express a great deal of awareness towards these crises, and many recognize the impacts on their daily lives. Nonetheless, not all Moroccans view the current situation in the country through a similar lens. As opposed to the 2018 fifth wave of Arab Barometer surveys where Moroccans were often divided in their views by age, it appears that the effect of these recent events has been to divide Moroccans by socio-economic status to a greater extent. Often, wealthier and more educated Moroccans have a different outlook on the country than those whose income cannot cover their expenses and those with only a high school education or less. The former have a better outlook on Morocco. They express more economic safety and are less likely to be critical of the current situation in their country. The latter are a bit more skeptical, instead expressing more economic frustration and are more willing to criticize many aspects of life in the North African kingdom.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

86. Kuwait Country Report 2022

Author:
Ghanim Alnajjar
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since 1962, Kuwait has been a relatively open country in terms of freedom of expression and political participation. Although political life in general has faced many challenges and interruptions, political culture is still present and influential. Notably, the Arab Barometer survey ended in June 2022, during a continuing political crisis in the Parliament, in deadlock with the government. The crisis manifested itself in the way several members of the Parliament boycotted the sessions, which led to a political deadlock of sorts. Since the latest elections held before the survey in 2020, the political crisis did witness a considerable escalation. This led, among other things, to a stagnated political process. Surprisingly, the Emir and Crown Prince gave an important speech on 22 June 2022, in which they both expressed their intention to call for early elections, and as such announced the dissolution of the Parliament. This procedure is not new since the Parliament was disbanded ten times out of 18 elections in the past. These reforms led to a general state of optimism in society, which positively impacted the election campaigns. The campaigns became less polarizing and less aggressive against the government. The Parliament was disbanded, and elections were held on 19 September 2022. Results brought new indicators that are worthy of highlighting, but which are outside the scope of the survey. It is likely that if the survey was delayed until after June, the results would have been different from the results that came in before the governmental reforms. It might be useful to conduct a second follow-up survey as soon as possible, even if it will be conducted through phone interviews, and be limited to certain questions only. In any case, the survey results are consistent with earlier surveys. There is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the government, especially in relation to some specific policies, like public education policies and anti-corruption measures. It is notable also that the government’s policies towards Covid-19 were evaluated positively. Moreover, certain cultural elements and concerns, especially in relation to gender, have showed some important changes worthy of more studies. The same applies to the economic situation. In spite of the generally negative economic circumstances, the overall trend towards the economy shows noticeable optimism. The survey also focused on questions related to the workforce and employment, being largely concentrated in the public sector, with less employed in the private sector. The survey shows the intensive use of social media platforms in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Governance, Media, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

87. Palestine Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
These are the results of the 7th wave of the Arab Barometer in Palestine. Data collection was conducted during the period of 14 and 23 October 2021 in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip. All interviews were conducted face to face among a representative sample of the adult population, 18 years and above. The poll covers a variety of issues such as economic conditions, democracy and governance, satisfaction with government and other public institutions, emigration, religious practices, gender, education, media, coronavirus, and international and regional matters. Findings show that the economic situation and the coronavirus are the top two concerns of the public. When asked about the most important challenges facing Palestine today, the largest percentage selected “the economic situation, such as poverty, unemployment and inflation,” followed by the spread of the coronavirus, financial and administrative corruption, and internal instability and security. It is worth noting that respondents in most of the Arab countries covered by AB 7 selected the economic situation and the coronavirus crisis as the two most important challenges facing their countries. When asked to evaluate the current economic situation in Palestine, the vast majority said it is bad or very bad. When asked to speculate about how the economic situation will be in the next few years, less than a third said it will be much better or somewhat better.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Health, Democracy, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

88. Mauritania Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Between November 2021 and January 2022, Arab Barometer conducted its first-ever nationally-representative public opinion survey in Mauritania. The survey was part of Arab Barometer’s Seventh Wave which included surveys in 12 countries across the Middle East and North Africa. The two-month fielding period in Mauritania coincided with the spread of the Omicron variable of COVID19, leading to the highest percentages of infections recorded in the country. Therefore, it was no surprise that the absolute majority of Mauritanians expressed concern over the spread of COVID-19. The pandemic, however, ranked second on the list of challenges facing the country, with the economy being the most important challenge for Mauritania. Furthermore, the pandemic is thought to have caused several challenges, chief among which is inflation and other economy-related issues. Mauritanians, however, recognized the government’s efforts to combat the spread of COVID-19 and to provide security and order in the country. Trust in the Mauritanian government was high as compared to other countries. Yet, people were clearly dissatisfied with public services and the government’s performance on the economic front. The harsh economic conditions had taken their toll on the livelihoods of Mauritanians, with large percentages of people suffering from food insecurity recently. These conditions are further exacerbated by the widespread corruption within the state apparatus. Climate change had contributed to making matters worse with the country experiencing its most severe drought in decades. Despite the hardship, Mauritanians were amongst the region’s least likely people to want to emigrate. Only a small minority had expressed a desire to leave the country, with the economy being the main driver behind that desire. When it comes to views on international relations, Mauritanians had shown clear toward Muslim-majority powers, namely Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with both the two states and their leaders being the favorites among regional and international powers. The opposite is true for France and Russia, the leader of which is the least popular leader among his counterparts in Mauritania.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Economy, COVID-19, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Africa and Mauritania

89. Crisis: Bureaucratic Politics, the Trump Administration, and Covid-19

Author:
Aaron Mannes
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the interplay between bureaucratic politics and decision-making processes within the Trump administration during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic response was shaped by the pulling and tugging between key players, including Vice President Mike Pence, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the National Security Council, and President Trump himself. Despite facing resistance from some officials, Trump often achieved his preferred policy outputs, such as undermining public health measures, by relying on a cadre of supportive aides. However, in areas like drug approvals, bureaucratic resistance proved more effective in countering Trump's demands. The paper concludes that the administration's overall pandemic response was abysmal, highlighting how Trump's inexperience and management style exacerbated the challenges posed by a complex crisis that threatened both human lives and economic stability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Leadership, Donald Trump, COVID-19, Management, and International Politics
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

90. How did Korea’s fiscal accounts fare during the COVID-19 pandemic?

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
South Korea undertook a number of important fiscal steps in 2020-21 to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. Key policies it adopted were common to most advanced economies, including transfers to support households, firms, and workers and increased resources for public health measures such as testing, tracing, quarantines, and vaccine rollouts. In terms of the increase in overall pandemic spending, Korea did as much as the typical advanced economy. Yet its fiscal deficit was lower than those of other advanced economies for reasons unrelated to the magnitude of its fiscal response. The authors find that Korea’s fiscal revenues rose more strongly than in most other advanced economies despite few discretionary changes to tax rates, reflecting strong revenues from asset-based taxes in an environment of rising asset prices. This serendipitous surge in revenues offset much of Korea’s pandemic-related increases in expenditures, keeping its fiscal deficit low. Korea’s GDP rose more strongly in 2020-21 than GDP in most other advanced economies, reflecting strong foreign demand for Korean exports and a better public health response, which minimized COVID mortality and necessitated fewer restrictions on mobility.
Topic:
Economy, Crisis Management, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

91. Rare macroeconomic disasters and lost decades in Latin America: The COVID-19 experience in a historical context

Author:
José F. Ursúa
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
COVID-19 led to the single largest year-over-year decline in Latin America’s GDP per capita in more than 100 years. Although the region has endured several macroeconomic shocks before, mostly related to financial dislocations, none has been so deep and synchronized. The authors' analysis of the COVID-19 experience for the region and eight economies with available historical data reveals the extent of the damage. Through 2020, four economies suffered “rare disasters” (cumulative contractions by 10 percent or more): Argentina, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Tragically, Venezuela’s macroeconomic collapse matches the largest contraction registered by any country in modern history. In addition, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela, together with the Latin America regional aggregate, are undergoing “lost decades” (prolonged periods of stagnation), which are unlikely to end soon. While Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Uruguay did relatively better with COVID-19, they still suffered significant recessions, and their economic performance has lost steam compared with prior decades. Overall, COVID-19 will cast a long shadow in Latin America even as economic growth rebounds. The shock also offers opportunities for a reset, with the appropriate set of macroeconomic policies, advances on microeconomic reforms, and the strengthening of institutions. Whether this set of policies will materialize in the midst of challenging political contexts remains an open question.
Topic:
History, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Latin America

92. The dynamics of formal employment during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda

Author:
Kyle McNabb, Tina Kaidu Barugahara, and Susan Namirembe Kavuma
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on formal sector employment in Uganda. Utilizing employee-level administrative tax data from the Uganda Revenue Authority, we describe the dynamics of employment as the pandemic evolved, seeking to better understand the various coping strategies undertaken by firms in the face of reduced sales and business activity. We find that over one in ten formally employed workers fully lost their incomes in the immediate aftermath of the onset of the pandemic and associated lockdown restrictions. Of those that remained employed, some 14% saw their salaries fall in the short term (to June 2020), and by March 2021 (a full year after the onset of the pandemic) over 9% of the formal workforce were still earning less than pre-pandemic. We subsequently match these pay-as-you-earn records with firms’ income tax returns to better understand how characteristics such as firm size, sector, and profitability affected the likelihood that different coping strategies were undertaken. We find that firms which were larger and more profitable pre-pandemic were more likely to retain their workforce and less likely to cut salaries throughout the course of the pandemic.
Topic:
Employment, Economy, COVID-19, and Income
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

93. Pandemic Responses in the MENA Region: Lessons learned for an inclusive economic recovery

Author:
Salma Jrad, Amine Bouzaine, Nadine Mezher, and Anna Chernova
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing inequalities and poor governance practices in the MENA region and had a disproportionate impact on the most vulnerable people. These persistent and structural issues also threaten a post-COVID inclusive recovery process. Austerity steers from institutions like the IMF risk further inequality and social exclusion, as evidenced by diverse and gendered impacts on the most vulnerable, including through low public spending on health and social protection. Economic and fiscal justice through progressive taxation and inclusive, crisis-resilient public spending are two key policy solutions to prevent future crises impoverishing the most vulnerable in the region. As the world recovers from the pandemic, now is the time for national and global policymakers – including international financial institutions – to take stock and seek policy alternatives that take a rights-based, inclusive, holistic and resilience-focused approach to recovery efforts, resourced through progressive taxation.
Topic:
Governance, Inequality, Finance, COVID-19, Inclusion, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

94. Sick Development: How rich-country government and World Bank funding to for-profit private hospitals causes harm and should be stopped

Author:
Anna Marriott
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Development finance institutions owned by European governments and the World Bank Group are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on expensive for-profit hospitals in the Global South that block patients from getting care, or bankrupt them, with some even imprisoning patients who cannot afford their bills. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of these same hospitals denied entry to patients suffering from the virus or sold intensive care beds at eyewatering prices to the highest bidder. These development institutions have woefully inadequate safeguards, invest via a complex web of tax-avoiding financial intermediaries, and offer little to zero evidence on the impacts their investments are having. Oxfam is calling on rich European governments and the World Bank Group to immediately halt their spending on for-profit private healthcare, and for an urgent independent investigation to be conducted into all active and historic investments.
Topic:
Development, World Bank, Economic Development, COVID-19, Private Equity, Universal Healthcare, and Profiteering
Political Geography:
Europe and Global South

95. Analysing the German construction industry’s supply chains

Author:
Johanna Neuhoff, Hannah Zick, and Andy Logan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The supply chain disruptions triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, the blockade of the Suez Canal, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were historically unique for Germany’s construction sector. Our research showed how these supply chain disruptions affected construction companies in various ways and identified strategies to help overcome them. The dominant effects were higher purchase prices, longer waiting times, and increased resources devoted towards planning. These longer waiting times meant greater difficulties in processing existing orders and a consequent need to forego new orders, which in turn led to a loss of turnover. Our research also found its supply chain was more globally intertwined than previously understood: the sector generates 40% of gross value added via imported services. Thirteen of the 57 imported intermediate inputs were found to be highly vulnerable. Other industry-specific characteristics include a high level of manufacturing complexity, which leads to a large number of required products. Meanwhile warehousing is often difficult, meaning supply chain interruptions have a direct impact on production capacity. Our recommendations to the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs, and Spatial Development were that companies should: Control their supply chains as completely as possible with digital technologies —from procurement and logistics to delivery to the construction site; Use digitalisation to detect disruptions at an earlier stage and react to them; Secure greater supply of raw materials through domestic production; Replace fossil energy sources with renewable energies; Select their suppliers in a diversified manner as far as possible; and Promote innovation for new future technologies.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, COVID-19, Logistics, Supply Chains, Production, Construction, Russia-Ukraine War, Digital Technologies, and Warehousing
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

96. Exploring trends and research in countering and preventing extremism & violent extremism

Author:
Denis Suljić and Emma Allen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
Radicalization leading to extremism and violent extremism still threatens global security and safety. The COVID-19 pandemic led to new trends and developments important for experts and practitioners working on preventing and countering extremism and violent extremism to consider in their prevention efforts. Considering the ever-changing landscape of extremism and violent extremism, researchers should regularly assess emerging challenges and shed light on effective preventing and countering extremism and violent extremism strategies and solutions for policymakers and practitioners to draw upon and to understand and respond to new and developing trends. This compilation of research essays spans various topics related to countering and preventing extremism, presented at Hedayah’s International Research Conference in Granada, Spain, in May 2022. The collection of essays intends to share insights from academics and practitioners on their professional experiences and cutting-edge research findings related to the broader efforts in countering and preventing extremism, and serves as a summary of discussions and findings highlighted at the conference. Hedayah’s International Research Conference has consistently aided in expanding research on countering extremism and violent extremism spanning over seven years. First, the conference presents recent, cutting-edge research, considering both academic and practitioner-led findings. This ensures that the presented findings include those with rigorous academic standards and the perspectives of the practitioner community. Second, the conference panelists are invited by Hedayah to contribute to the subsequent Edited Volume to publish their research findings. The Edited Volume ensures that these research results are disseminated beyond the conference attendees, and are made available to a larger network of policymakers, researchers and practitioners attempting to strengthen their activities, research, policies, and programs in this space. Therefore, the conference is designed to cover cross-cutting subjects and overarching themes across different panels, such as gender, youth, and cross-disciplinary challenges and lessons. Hedayah’s seventh Research Conference brought a range of policymakers, practitioners and academic experts together on issues related to countering and preventing extremism and violent extremism. It presented research in a discussion-oriented forum, providing our vibrant and diverse community with the opportunity to engage in meaningful discussions and share novel ideas and suggestions on addressing new and emerging extremist and violent extremist threats, trends, and suggestions on how they could be treated. The sessions, divided across three days, covered diverse themes and topics. The panel that opened the conference discussions focused on the implications of COVID-19 on extremist and violent extremist actors, and efforts to address these new developments and emerging threats. Sessions that followed covered the role of the internet and new technology, the effects of environmental changes on extremism and violent extremism, the global rise of the radical right, and the unceasing threat of ideologically-inspired extremist, violent extremist and terrorist groups. The conference also included in-person and virtual breakout sessions, including a session concentrating on the future directions of the field, and another exploring the ethical challenges of research on preventing and countering extremism, along with innovative methodologies and techniques.
Topic:
Radicalization, Far Right, COVID-19, Countering Violent Extremism, Misogyny, Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), and Eco-Fascism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

97. Sweden during the Pandemic: Pariah or Paragon?

Author:
Johan Norberg
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden stood out from other countries, stubbornly refusing lockdowns, school closures, and mask mandates. This was highly controversial and many outsiders saw it as a dangerous gamble with human lives. From a Swedish perspective, however, it looked like it was other countries that were engaging in a dangerous experiment. This paper describes Sweden’s policies and the reasons for its choices, and it presents some preliminary conclusions about the results. Sweden’s economy got through the pandemic better than comparable countries, and elementary school students have not suffered learning losses. These benefits do not seem to have come at the expense of human health. Remarkably, total excess deaths were smaller in Sweden than in any other European country during the three pandemic years (2020–2022), and the rate was less than half of America’s. In the absence of strict government control, Swedes adapted their behavior voluntarily.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Sweden

98. Covid-19: implications for the Indo-Pacific

Author:
David Engel and Alex Bristow
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
As we approach four years since the first cases of Covid-19 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the world seems relatively familiar again, albeit an increasingly scary place because of war in Europe, accelerating climate change, and the unhealthy nexus between new technologies and authoritarian coercion by Beijing and others. Within this ‘polycrisis’, Covid-19 now feels like a secondary concern. But the world remains unprepared for the next pandemic, which the Director-General of the World Health Organization, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has warned could come soon and be even more deadly. This report provides a comprehensive stocktake of the lessons our region should draw from Covid-19 at precisely the time we risk forgetting the pandemic’s significance, not just for health but also for the resilience of our societies, economies and international rules-based trade and security. This collection of papers by Japanese and Australian academics, journalists and think tankers explores varying aspects of the regional impact of the pandemic, including on trade, foreign affairs and security. The collection includes detailed case studies on Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia, as well as thematic analysis at the regional and multilateral levels. We hope the compilation is useful for policy makers and decision makers throughout the region, in particular the examination of the systemic links between different forms of crisis preparedness, the sovereign resilience of smaller powers against great power influence, and the effect of Covid-19 in accelerating pre-pandemic regional trends, including mounting challenges to liberal democracy. This report was produced with funding support from the Japanese Government.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Crisis Management, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, and Indo-Pacific