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1921. Aftershocks from Gaza: From Local to Global Consequences (Part 1)

Author:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Working Group
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The grotesque attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza have upended long-standing assumptions about regional order. The Middle East’s previous reliance on a US-led security framework has given way to a fragmented, multi-aligned landscape in which middle powers pursue their interests, while the Palestinian issue—long marginalized—has returned to the center of regional and global diplomacy. Israel has secured tactical military gains but at the cost of increasing diplomatic isolation, while conditions in Gaza have fueled global demands for a sustainable political solution. Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria face profound setbacks, while Turkey and the Arab Gulf states seek to expand influence without the means to dominate. China and Russia remain cautious players, unwilling or unable to shape the conflict’s outcome. For the United States, the Gaza war poses a strategic dilemma. Despite efforts to broker ceasefires and secure hostages, Washington has been unable—or unwilling—to exert decisive leverage on Israel. The Biden and Trump administrations alike have struggled to articulate a coherent, sustainable strategy that balances US interests in security, energy, stability, and credibility. The ISD Gaza Report is organized in two parts: Part I: A ground assessment of the regional shifts since October 7, with particular focus on Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as the reemergence of Palestine as the central unresolved question in Middle East politics, and the role of regional states. Part II: A deeper analysis of Iran’s position and prospects, scenarios for regional order, and US policy options, culminating in concrete recommendations for advancing stability while protecting US strategic interests. Participants underscored that any durable path forward begins and ends with Palestine and the Palestinians. US policymakers must adapt to a regional order defined not by hegemonic control but by contested pluralism and assertive middle powers. Strategic clarity, consistent diplomacy, and credible leverage are essential if Washington hopes to pursue its interests amid the aftershocks from Gaza—and not merely react to them.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hezbollah, Strategic Interests, Palestinians, Regional Politics, 2023 Gaza War, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

1922. Case Study on Conspiracy to Smuggle U.S.-Origin Military Equipment and Dual-Use Technology to North Korea

Author:
Jessica Kim and Sarah Burkhard
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
A Chinese national, Shenghua Wen, pleaded guilty in 2024 to conspiring with North Korea to export restricted items without a license, violating the U.S. International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the North Korea Sanctions Regulations, and Executive Orders. At the direction of the North Korean government, Wen acted from his private residence in the United States, buying military goods domestically and providing false shipping information to send the items to Hong Kong, and then to North Korea. The case demonstrates that though North Korea can achieve limited success through such schemes, its agents face a high risk of exposure, detainment, and prosecution. Beyond firearms, ammunition, and other military equipment, North Korea sought civilian aircraft engine blueprints to manufacture engines for its drone program. At present, Wen’s scheme does not appear to indicate the presence of a more sophisticated smuggling network. Thus far, Wen’s partners/co-conspirators, the unnamed Hong Kong-based “broker,” and front company mentioned in the criminal complaint have not faced any punitive action from the U.S. government.
Topic:
Security, Sanctions, Smuggling, and Dual Use Items
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

1923. Canadian-Based Company Fined by U.S. Commerce Department for Hiding U.S. Exports to Iran

Author:
Aline Spyrka
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Canada-based biotechnology company Luminultra illegally exported from its Maryland-based production facility three Photonmaster luminometers and 25 aqueous test kits valuing $33,438 USD to Iran on October 21, 2022. Under instructions from the Iranian buyer, and hopes of future sales to the Iranian market, Luminultra agreed to falsify export declarations and ship the items from the United States via the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to Iran. Under further instructions from the Iranian buyer, Luminultra received payment at a Canadian bank in Canadian dollars specifically to avoid payment for the shipment in USD and through a US bank. The case shows a lack of awareness of the risks and penalties associated with willful violation of export controls and sanctions and indicates that Canada needs to improve its outreach to the industry, especially now that a wide range of UN sanctions on Iran are re-instated. It also shows the importance of UN sanctions to prevent banks in third countries from processing illicit payments from Iran. Luminultra signed a settlement agreement in September 2025 and agreed to pay the $685,051 fine. They also agreed to establish an export compliance system and complete export compliance audits over a three-year probationary period.[1]
Topic:
Sanctions, Exports, Compliance, and Luminulta
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Canada, North America, and United States of America

1924. The IMF’s Lebanon Framework: Balancing State Debt with Depositor Rights

Author:
Samara Azzi
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
So far, the proposals presented to Lebanon’s central bank risk prolonging rather than solving the country’s financial and economic woes. As Lebanon faces multiple challenges with economic and financial recovery from the country’s 2019 economic collapse, two interconnected issues remain particularly controversial: recovering the money of Lebanese who lost access to their bank deposits and holding those responsible for squandering their money accountable. Many insist on placing the blame on the Lebanese banking sector, thereby absolving current and former government officials of their role in swindling account holders. This is the narrative preferred by Hezbollah and its allies, who provided the political cover for the culture of corruption that eventually led to economic collapse. The new government is negotiating a reform package with the IMF, which presents a great opportunity to hold officials and politicians accountable. However, discussions do not seem to be moving in the right direction. Rather than focusing on accountability, the IMF, like other international lenders, appears to be focused primarily on minimizing the indebtedness of its prospective client—in this case, the Lebanese state—at the expense of depositors and the central bank.
Topic:
Debt, IMF, Banking, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

1925. U.S. and Chinese Dual Citizen Engineer Pleads Guilty to Stealing Missile Launch and Detection Technology

Author:
Jessica Kim and Sarah Burkhard
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
During and shortly after his employment at a large U.S. defense contractor, a Chinese-US dual citizen downloaded thousands of export-controlled and proprietary files from the company’s secure server onto multiple hard drives, some of which remain at large. The files included manufacturing specifications and test results for two sophisticated types of sensors used for space-based detection and tracking of threats, suitable for tracking ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The files included assembly designs and engineering specifications for a specialized vacuum-sealed, cooling enclosure to further protect the radiation-hardened sensors in space. While it is not explicitly stated that he acted at the direction of the Chinese government, it appears likely that Gong intended to utilize the information he stole to benefit the Chinese military.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Missile Defense, Exports, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
China, North America, and United States of America

1926. South Korea and the Middle East’s Defense Localization Drive: A New Strategic Fit

Author:
Bonggeun Kim
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Given South Korea’s willingness to offer technology transfer, local production arrangements, and politically flexible partnerships, it has become an attractive alternative to Western and Russian suppliers, presenting both opportunities and competitive challenges for U.S. policy in the region.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Partnerships, and Localization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Asia, and South Korea

1927. Coal, Oil, Gas, and Nuclear: Risks in Turkey’s Growing Energy Demands

Author:
Mustafa Enes Esen
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Without further diversification of suppliers, expanded renewable capacity, strategic investments in LNG, and nuclear partnerships beyond Russia, Turkey risks exchanging one form of energy dependency for another.
Topic:
Gas, Diversification, Supply Chains, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

1928. A Roadmap for Israel-Lebanon Peace

Author:
Hanin Ghaddar, Robert Satloff, and Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Pursuing even incremental steps will be difficult in a country long dominated by Iran’s chief regional proxy, but the two countries’ leaders have cracked the door open for future diplomacy.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Politics, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

1929. Balancing National Security and Economic Priorities in the U.S.-Jordan Relationship

Author:
Saud Al-Sharafat
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the U.S. administration shifts towards an economics-first approach to foreign policy, Jordan will need to find ways to emphasize the benefits of the two countries' decades-long broader strategic relationship in public messaging—both for its own national security interests and as a way to assuage public concerns. Recent developments in U.S.-Jordanian relations, from the announcement of President Trump’s “Middle East riviera” plan for Gaza to tariff announcements—have prompted the question of how Jordan will deal with the current regional challenges it faces as the United States reorients to an economy-focused approach. For a country like Jordan, which has relied on a combination of military support and diplomatic engagement with the United States and Israel for more than seven decades, its primary challenge now lies in integrating these new market-based visions with the realities of the entrenched political conflicts that surround and impact its domestic national security. Jordan will have a dual challenge: managing domestic attitudes towards this U.S. reprioritization and, on an external level, articulating a dynamic and forward-thinking strategy to emphasize its continued importance to U.S. policymakers. On the one hand, Jordan's options in response to a more distant United States are few and far from ideal; yet Jordan has its own strong incentives to promote stability in the region, as well as concrete examples it can point to regarding how the value of its relationship with the United States extends beyond the economic when it comes to the impact of its stability and security in broader regional dynamics. Perhaps most importantly, Jordan has been and can continue to be a regional first line of defense against all types of extremism, whether leftist, nationalist, or religious. Ensuring that this message reaches those in power in the United States may require more extensive and creative avenues than in the past, but will be vital in emphasizing the ongoing value of the relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, Jordan, and United States of America

1930. Iraqi Kurds Could Facilitate and Mediate in PKK-Turkish Peace Process


Author:
Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
New developments in the PKK-Turkey peace process are a window of opportunity for Iraqi Kurdish parties to stabilize areas of Iraqi Kurdistan affected by the conflict and help facilitate a lasting peace. In a major development, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leadership announced on May 12 that the group would disband, potentially marking an end to its forty year conflict with Turkey after a peace process began between its imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan’s and the Turkish state last October. However, much of the conflict has unfolded not in Turkey but in Iraq—and specifically the Kurdistan Region of Iraq—where Turkey has fought the PKK since the 1980s in a conflict that has threatened civilian lives, prompted internal displacement, and damaged the local economy. Given the destabilizing role of this conflict there, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has proven keen on a successful peace process in Turkey, since it could remove what it sees as PKK’s territorial encroachment in Iraqi Kurdistan. Both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the KDP have also played mediating roles in the previous peace processes between Turkey and the PKK. While the PKK entered the Qandil mountains in Iraqi Kurdistan via a deal with the KDP in 1982, the PKK subsequently extended its presence outside of Qandil in the 1990s and came into conflict with the KDP during the Kurdish civil war. And during Turkish military cross-border operations against the PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan, which have increased since 2019, there have also been skirmishes and tensions between the KDP and PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan, including clashes between the PKK and Peshmerga, assassinations, market fires, and drone attacks on Peshmerga forces. The Turkish-PKK conflict has also led to civilian casualties in Iraqi Kurdistan, such as when eight Iraqi tourists were killed in 2022 in Turkish strikes, sparking diplomatic tensions between Baghdad and Ankara. These activities have been deeply concerning to the KDP, leading it to call on the PKK to return to Qandil and leave other areas of Iraqi Kurdistan in 2021 and offering its support for new peace talks with Turkey in return.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Kurds, Political Parties, PKK, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

1931. Leveraging the Gaps in Russia and China’s Complex Relations with Iran

Author:
Richard Nephew
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Far from signaling a strong trilateral alliance, their history of often transactional cooperation reveals strategic gaps that Washington can leverage to help curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. For all the hoopla that preceded it, the trilateral China-Iran-Russia meeting on Tehran’s nuclear program did not appear to generate anything of great significance. The joint statement issued after the March 15 Beijing gathering largely echoed previous such documents, from condemning “unlawful unilateral sanctions” against Iran to reiterating a mutual desire for a diplomatic solution. That said, the mere act of holding the meeting may have been the objective, to signal to the world that the three countries stand together. This show of unity could have immediate practical effects given the partial expiration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2025—including the “snapback” provision that permits the UN to reimpose full sanctions on Iran if a JCPOA participant triggers the mechanism. At the same time, the three governments still have diverging historical and strategic interests on a range of issues—differences that will not dissipate just because they hold a joint meeting and share friction with the United States. If Washington hopes to exploit these fault lines, however, it must properly understand them.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, and Middle East

1932. Attacking Iran's Nuclear Program: The Complex Calculus of Preventive Action

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Should a negotiated deal prove elusive, policymakers will need to consider how to define a successful strike, Iran’s potential responses, and whether a strategy of prevention can be sustained. ran’s nuclear program is one of the most pressing foreign policy challenges facing the Trump administration. While the president has expressed his preference for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, many Israeli officials believe that Iran’s current weakness provides a unique opportunity to destroy or at least set back its nuclear program through a military strike. Should a negotiated deal prove elusive, policymakers will need to weigh the pros and cons of military action and answer several questions, including: How does one define a successful strike? What challenges need to be addressed in planning a campaign to destroy or degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons program? How sustainable is a strategy of prevention? And how might Iran respond to such a campaign? In this Policy Note, military expert Michael Eisenstadt explains that a preventive attack likely won’t be a one-off but rather the opening round of a lengthy campaign employing military strikes, covert action, and other elements of national power. Such a campaign, he writes, could presage either a more stable order for the region or a new, danger­ous phase in one of its most volatile conflicts.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Energy, Regional Security, and Preventive Measures
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

1933. Setting Up the Next Phase of U.S.-UAE Nuclear Cooperation

Author:
Noam Raydan
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With the U.S. point man on energy development touring the Gulf and Chinese and Russian nuclear initiatives on the rise, the Trump administration should consider how best to replicate the responsible Emirati model elsewhere in the region. To kick off his first official tour of the Middle East, U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright arrived in the United Arab Emirates this week, where he has been meeting with key stakeholders and is expected to make a timely visit to the Barakah civil nuclear power plant in al-Dhafra. The plant visit comes amid growing global enthusiasm about nuclear energy, both to meet decarbonization targets and to address tech company plans for more data centers and artificial intelligence initiatives that require substantial amounts of nonstop power. Yet Wright also has an opportunity to underscore the importance of solid nuclear policy in a region where such technology is usually associated with proliferation risks.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Middle East, United Arab Emirates, and United States of America

1934. China Flexes Its Soft Power in the KRI

Author:
Winthrop Rodgers and Sardar Aziz
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, signs of Chinese soft power are increasingly visible to residents of an area with longstanding ties to the United States. As the world’s largest nation without a state of their own, Kurdish politicians in Iraq have long prioritized robust and visible relationships with foreign powers as a means to ensure the leaders and interests of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region (KRI) remain relevant amid changing geopolitical tides. For foreign governments, this welcoming atmosphere provides an opportunity to nurture the green shoots of soft power, often in the most ordinary ways. Given the longstanding role of U.S. foreign aid in the KRI, Chinese soft power efforts and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG)’s response may provide a bell weather for how other longstanding U.S. allies respond to the shift in American attitudes towards aid and its attendant soft power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, United States of America, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

1935. Countering Iran's Deceptive Behavior in Nuclear Negotiations

Author:
Farzin Nadimi
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In negotiations, the Iranian regime prefers to operate discreetly and secretly, allowing Tehran to shape the information spectrum and protract talks to buy time and wear down their negotiation counterparts. By shining light on the diplomatic process, U.S. policymakers can provide a counter-narrative that takes to task Iranian intransigence and provides accurate information for the Iranian public. Iran's adept use of secrecy, disinformation, and stalling tactics has long posed significant challenges to international efforts aimed at curbing its nuclear ambitions. As the United States prepares for its renewed negotiations with Tehran, anticipating and countering these tactics is key to shaping the negotiating context and facilitating diplomatic progress.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Negotiation, Propaganda, Disinformation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

1936. Allowing Political Opposition in the New Syria

Author:
Ishtar Al Shami
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The new Syrian government will be judged not just by its treatment of minorities, but also how it approaches political opposition—and its checkered history in this regard gives pause.
Topic:
Minorities, Domestic Politics, Syrian War, Opposition, Post-Conflict, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

1937. Media Representation of ‘Diyarbakır Mothers’: A Cross-Newspaper Comparison and Analysis

Author:
Halime Kökce
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
In today's world, the media plays a powerful role in shaping perspectives on social issues. The portrayal of the ‘Diyarbakır Mothers’ in the media highlights a critical area of research on the media's influence on social perception. This study examines how four different newspapers (Yeni Şafak, Sözcü, Sabah and Cumhuriyet) represent the ‘Diyarbakır Mothers’ and explores the media's impact on shaping social perception. To achieve this, the language used by these newspapers, their headline choices, and their news content are examined through discourse analysis, aiming to uncover the media's stance on this issue. By employing this method, the linguistic choices and narrative strategies within the news articles are assessed to understand how they shape the public perception of this topic. By analyzing the language, headline choices, and content of these news articles, the study aims to reveal the media's stance on this issue. This analysis offers valuable insights into the political orientations of these newspapers, their influence on social perceptions, and the strategies they use to engage their audiences. Ultimately, this study helps us understand the diversity in how the ‘Diyarbakır Mothers’ are portrayed in the media and prompts us to question the role of media in shaping social issues.
Topic:
Media, News Analysis, Representation, Society, Perception, and Diyarbakır Mothers
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Diyarbakır

1938. Resilience and Roadblocks: The Abraham Accords at Five Years

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The architecture behind Arab-Israel normalization has survived the war years, but expansion to other countries will require a credible embrace of diplomacy, along with regional collaboration to shape Gaza’s future. Ahalf-decade after Israel normalized relations with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, it is remarkable that the strategic architecture for deepening these relationships—and engaging potential new partners—remains in place. Israel’s prosecution of the war in Gaza has undoubtedly strained ties with Arab states, but no partner has suspended them, and steady cooperation persists in areas like air defense and trade. This resilience reflects a larger reality in which Israel’s military successes have upended the regional balance of power to Tehran’s detriment, including through the decimation of Hezbollah and direct blows to Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. But Arab actors are deeply concerned about Israel’s reliance on military force and advocate a clear pivot to diplomatic engagement. In this Policy Note, analyst David Makovsky discusses Abraham Accords partners and prospects, while explaining the role of creative tradeoffs in facilitating past breakthroughs. But he also emphasizes that widening the tent will require an end to the Gaza war and Israeli collaboration with Arab states to shape the territory’s future.
Topic:
Normalization, Resilience, Abraham Accords, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1939. To Halt the Jihadist Advance in Somalia, Work with Turkey and the UAE

Author:
Ido Levy
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Overhauled Turkish and Emirati training programs for the Somali army and renewed funding for the African Union mission could provide the boost that Mogadishu needs, and Washington should push for both. n July 27, the al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group al-Shabab seized the town of Mahas in central Somalia. For the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), the loss of Mahas after a series of defeats is particularly stinging, as the town was liberated by African Union (AU) and government forces in 2014. Al-Shabab’s latest onslaught, which began earlier this year, has brought it additional territories around the capital. The empowered al-Qaeda affiliate is also still bent on attacking U.S. interests around the world. Last year, a federal court convicted an al-Shabab operative in New York of plotting a “9/11-style attack,” and in 2023, U.S. authorities charged an American citizen arrested in Kenya for attempting to join al-Shabab to attack the United States. Moreover, the UN has reported a budding tactical relationship in which the Yemeni Houthis transfer weapons and know-how to al-Shabab, while the Somali group agrees to ramp up piracy to support Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. Seizing more territory in Somalia gives al-Shabab additional resources and infrastructure for such activities abroad.
Topic:
Security, Training, Jihad, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Middle East, Somalia, and United Arab Emirates

1940. Spy Versus Spy: Iran’s Playbook for Espionage in Israel

Author:
Sarah Boches and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tehran’s recruitment of Israelis for military surveillance, sabotage, assassination plots, and other operations is on the rise, showing how the shadow war between the two adversaries continues to evolve even after their recent hot war.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Surveillance, and Espionage
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel