Publication Year: within 1 Year - CIAO Search Results

2951. Seeing the Forest and the Trees: Recent Developments in the US Tariff Landscape

Author:: Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This short factual overview paper describes the complexity created by the tariffs imposed by the US, especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The Policy Brief concludes by highlighting the importance of the EU “Access2Market” tool in addressing these new complexities, helping EU exporters gain access to the US market.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Economy, Tariffs, and Micro-Small-Medium Enterprises (MSMEs)
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

2952. Mass Litigation and the Future of Litigation Funding in Ireland and Europe

Author:: Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, Vanika Sharma, and Renata Zilli
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Across Europe, collective actions are on the rise. Expanding liability regimes and the rapid growth of third-party litigation funding (TPLF) are fuelling a new wave of lawsuits that reach far beyond traditional consumer claims. Ireland has until now been shielded by common law restrictions on TPLF, but that protection is weakening. The transposition of the EU Representative Actions Directive (RAD) opens the door to new collective claims, including those backed by commercial funders that invest in such litigation in order to make a profit. Ireland is uniquely exposed to these developments. Its economic model relies heavily on foreign direct investment, particularly from the US. Of more than 460 collective action cases tracked in the EU over the past 18 years, 40 involved US companies, many of which operate their European headquarters from Ireland. Information and communication technology and life sciences sectors, two of Ireland’s most important economic engines, are among the most frequent targets of collective lawsuits. If the conditions for launching a collective action and granting access to TPLF become too favourable, Ireland – the only EU country with common law procedures, broad disclosure rules and English-language litigation could become an attractive venue for mass litigation. The supposed benefits of mass litigation are, in practice, limited. Evidence from the US and UK shows that consumers rarely receive meaningful compensation. Lawyers and funders capture the bulk of settlements, while claimants often receive token amounts. By contrast, the costs are large and measurable: higher legal expenses, falling market valuations, and weaker incentives for innovation. For Ireland, the scenario analysis suggests potential economic costs in the billions of euros, exceeding the annual public budget for infrastructure. The negative impact is not confined to domestic cases: collective actions pursued elsewhere against firms headquartered in Ireland also ripple back to the Irish economy through lost growth and reduced investment. These risks cannot be managed through national policy alone. The RAD’s cross-border provisions and the free flow of capital mean that litigation funding can reach Irish courts even if TPLF remains restricted domestically. This underlines the need for a coherent EU-wide framework. The European Parliament and more recently the UK Civil Justice Council (CJC) have called for tighter oversight, including transparency rules, limits on funder returns, judicial scrutiny of funding contracts, and liability for costs if cases fail. Minimum standards cannot be achieved by member states acting alone. Ireland has a chance to lead. As the incoming holder of the EU Council Presidency from July 2026, it will be well positioned to put the regulation of TPLF on the European agenda. A robust framework would not only protect consumers but also safeguard Europe’s competitiveness, reduce the risk of forum shopping, and ensure that litigation funding enables the delivery of justice rather than financial speculation via the courts. For Ireland, the stakes are high: the country has the most to lose if unchecked mass litigation undermines foreign investment and innovative industries upon which its prosperity rests.
Topic:: European Union, Regional Economy, Liability, and Mass Litigation
Political Geography:: Europe and Ireland

2953. Memo to Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa: Make the Right Priorities for the EU-CELAC Summit 2025

Author:: Renata Zilli
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The EU–CELAC Summit in Santa Marta, Colombia, in November comes at a time when both regions need to get down to business. The EU-CELAC cooperation has long offered both sides opportunities to advance their economic and strategic interests, but so far, they have not used them. Past summits have rarely moved beyond lofty declarations and have not matched the level of expectations. Since the first Rio Summit in 1992,[1] successive joint meetings between the two regions have highlighted shared values and cooperation on democracy, economic development, and sustainability. Yet, two decades of summitry have not yielded the tangible progress that citizens and businesses expect. In a world of heightened geopolitical rivalry, technological disruption, and recurring supply shocks, Europe and Latin America should make a deeper investment in their relationship. For the European Union, reducing overdependence on a small number of suppliers has become a strategic priority. For Latin America and the Caribbean, diversifying trade and investment partners is essential to avoid being squeezed between the US and China in their strategic competition. A forward-looking agenda on trade and economic security can transform EU–CELAC relations into a strategic Atlantic partnership. This agenda should prioritise: Deepening EU-CELAC economic security cooperation to mitigate supply chain shocks and the weaponisation of economic dependencies through trade diversification. Promoting the integration of regional value chains by fostering diversified comparative advantages across CELAC countries, enabling each to specialise in different segments of production. Funding digital infrastructure: Utilise the EU-LAC Global Gateway Investment Agenda to plug investment gaps, specifically in digital transformation. Completing trade agreement implementation: Use the cooperation to propel the full implementation of Association and Trade Agreements between the EU and CELAC partners, and accelerate the ratification of signed agreements while pushing ongoing processes like the modernisation of agreements with Mexico Make the EU-CELAC cooperation a springboard for a “Coalition of the Willing” for a rules-based international trade. [1] The first high-level meeting between the European Community and Latin American and Caribbean countries took place in 1999, launching the EU–LAC Strategic Partnership. This dialogue evolved into the current EU–CELAC framework in 2013, when the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States became the EU’s formal counterpart, giving the relationship a more structured and political foundation
Topic:: Security, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, and Caribbean

2954. A new kind of cognitive tool: Generative AI and the future of critical and creative thinking in education

Author:: Dominique Kelly and Jacquelyn Burkell
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:: Since the 2022 release of ChatGPT, students have increasingly embraced the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in their schoolwork. These tools threaten to fuel misinformation and plagiarism; however, we contend that a deeper concern lies in how students’ use of generative AI could affect their cognitive development. Students can now offload tasks to generative AI that, if completed independently, would require them to build and exercise higher-order cognitive abilities (i.e., critical and creative thinking). Thus, we argue that repeated cognitive offloading through generative AI could hinder the development of students’ fundamental skills and undermine the core aims of educational institutions. We begin by comparing generative AI to two other cognitive tools – calculators and navigation systems – and explaining how the nature of work AI can perform differs from the nature of work that can be offloaded to these prior technologies. We then examine how the use of generative AI could impede the development of higher-order cognitive abilities in three educational use cases: essay writing, idea generation, and explanation of complex concepts. Lastly, we offer practical recommendations for educators concerning generative AI’s role in education. We suggest that educators delay students’ use of generative AI as a cognitive tool for complex tasks until the later stages of their schooling. At the same time, we note that educators could design activities that require students to interact with generative AI as a dialogue partner that asks questions, offers varied perspectives, and challenges assumptions – with potential to support, rather than hinder, students’ cognitive development.
Topic:: Education, Artificial Intelligence, Critical Thinking, ChatGPT, and Generative Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2955. What About Us? Consumer Response to the Digital Markets Act

Author:: Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The Digital Markets Act (DMA) was introduced as a landmark piece of EU legislation to change how consumers interact or engage with large online platforms. By restraining the power of the so-called gatekeepers, Brussels aimed to promote greater competition, improve privacy protections and make digital services more affordable. Two years into its application, however, the reality on the ground in EU, especially for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) Member States has proved far more sobering. Consumers have seen little evidence of cheaper or improved digital services. Many report greater friction in their online experience, while confidence and trust in platform privacy remains low. Most strikingly, consumer behaviour itself has hardly shifted: reliance on a handful of dominant players such as Google, Meta, and Apple still prevail. These findings suggest that the DMA, while ambitious in scope, has failed to deliver on its central promise of empowering Europe’s digital citizens. This study concludes that Europe must either consider replacing the DMA with a more flexible case-by-case enforcement or, at the very least, reform it by removing obligations that neither enhance consumer welfare nor improve market contestability.
Topic:: European Union, Regional Economy, Digital Markets Act (DMA), and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: Europe

2956. Privacy at a Price? An Empirical Analysis of GDPR’s Impact on EU Trade Flows

Author:: Elena Sisto and Erik van der Marel
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The introduction of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in 2018 created conditions that could raise the cost of trading services with the EU, especially where cross-border transfers of personal data are required. This paper examines whether the GDPR has truly affected trade in digital services between EU member states and third countries. Using a triple-difference strategy that compares EU trade with partners whose cross-border transfer regimes differ from the EU’s conditional model to a suitable control group, this paper accounts for the fact that, over time, many partners have adopted a similar conditional model (so-called spillovers), following the phenomenon known as the “Brussels effect.” Identification relies on two elements: sectoral data intensity, measured by the share of firms in each sector participating in the EU-US Data Privacy Framework (DPF), and partner regime alignment, distinguishing EU-style conditional regimes from non-aligned regimes. We estimate a structural-gravity PPML model with high-dimensional fixed effects, complemented by robustness checks using input-output-based intensity measures and a non-gravity triple difference on growth.
Topic:: European Union, Privacy, Trade, and GDPR
Political Geography:: Europe

2957. The Challenges of Reconstruction and Recovery: The Day After the War and the Future of Youth in Gaza

Author:: Ali Abdel-Wahab
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Palestinian youth constitute a vital segment of society, representing approximately 22% of the total population. They live under the weight of chronic political deadlock, a dependent economy, and shrinking civil space. In other words, they are stuck in a constant struggle to redefine their identity and status according to the balance of power and the imposed political reality. In the Gaza Strip in particular, where the burden of the blockade that has been in place since 2007 coincides with modern colonial domination and internal political marginalization, a new generation has grown up knowing nothing but political isolation and division. This generation, which is ambitious and highly educated (unemployment among university graduates reached about 74% before the war), found itself shackled by a stifling economic reality and a political dead end, which eroded its confidence in the political system and its traditional structures. These circumstances produced a strong tendency toward “individual salvation,” with about 37% of young people seriously considering emigration in search of dignity and opportunities lost at home. The recent war, which has been waged on the Gaza Strip since October 2023, was not merely a military escalation, but a systematic military operation aimed at destroying both infrastructure and society, exacerbating existing crises to catastrophic levels. The 2023 war transformed the situation from a chronic crisis to one of total destruction of the urban, educational, and social infrastructure, with hundreds of thousands of displaced persons, the destruction of most universities and schools, and the emergence of the largest generation of people with disabilities in the modern history of Gaza. Thousands of young people have fallen victim, living under the weight of unprecedented collective psychological trauma and educational disruption that threatens to squander human capital. This tragic situation has transformed the issue of youth from a mere developmental challenge to a matter of national, social, and existential security.
Topic:: Reconstruction, Youth, Recovery, Post-Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

2958. Preventing Crises in the Post-War Phase: Engineering Transitional Stability in Palestine Between International Recognition and Gaza Reconstruction Plans

Author:: Ali Abdel-Wahab
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: After a long and devastating war, Palestine stands at a critical crossroads that demands not only reconstruction but also a fortification of its future. The war has left Gaza in ruins—massive human and material losses, with thousands killed, tens of thousands injured, and widespread destruction of homes and essential infrastructure. Joint assessments by the United Nations, the World Bank, and the European Union estimate material damage in Gaza at around USD 30 billion, alongside USD 19 billion in economic losses due to the near-total halt of production and services. The most severely affected sector was housing (53 percent of total damage), followed by commerce and industry (20 percent), and then critical infrastructure—health, water, and transport—accounting for over 15 percent. Consequently, Gaza’s economy has nearly collapsed: prices have risen by more than 300 percent within a year, and the Strip—home to 40 percent of the Palestinian population—now contributes barely 3 percent to the national GDP. Public institutions, already fragile, have been unable to maintain basic services. Continuous power outages, water disruptions, and loss of connectivity have pushed systems to the brink. Gaza’s sole power plant has been completely non-functional since 11 October 2023, while most high-voltage feeder lines from Israel have been destroyed. Residents have been forced to rely on small diesel generators and solar micro-systems—both hindered by fuel shortages and combat damage. According to UN data, large portions of Gaza’s water and sanitation systems are out of service, solid waste has accumulated, and the risk of epidemics has grown sharply.
Topic:: Reconstruction, Institutions, Post-Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

2959. Pathways to Peacebuilding and the Promotion of Democracy and Civil Peace in Palestinian Society: Mechanisms and Strategies in the Recovery Phase (Mechanisms and strategies during the recovery phase)

Author:: Mansour Abu Karim
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Over the past years, Palestinian society has experienced a state of instability resulting from the failure of the political settlement process, the internal Palestinian division, and the recurrence of wars as well as political, security, and economic crises. These factors have led to significant political and societal structural distortions, leaving profound repercussions on the Palestinian democratic experience and civil peace. This reality calls for the adoption of new policies and approaches to strengthen the process of building internal peace, protecting civil peace, and promoting a democratic approach in Palestinian society. This paper addresses the pathways to building internal Palestinian peace, promoting democratic practices, and safeguarding civil peace during the recovery phase. It is organized into three main themes: the first provides a conceptual framework for peace, democracy, and civil peace; the second examines the key components of peacebuilding, democracy, and civil peace in Palestinian society; and the third explores mechanisms and policies for protecting the internal Palestinian front, resolving crises and disputes, and preserving political and social pluralism.
Topic:: Democracy, Armed Conflict, Peacebuilding, and Civil Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

2960. Displacement, Temporary Survival, and the Transformation of Social Bonds: How War Reshapes Community Networks and Collective Behavior in Gaza

Author:: Pal-Think for Strategic Studies Research and Studies Unit
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This paper aims to analyze these disruptive transformations in depth and impartially for the benefit of policy experts, decision-makers, humanitarian actors, and civil society as a whole. The paper reviews the background of Gazan society before the war, then details the manifestations of social fragmentation (family, class, spatial) and their impact on women, children, and the most vulnerable groups in particular. It also addresses the conditions in shelters as hotbeds of tension, violence, and inequality. Finally, the paper offers realistic policy recommendations for dealing with this disruptive reality in the long term, focusing on rebuilding the social contract and supporting psychological and community recovery, rather than merely offering vague rhetoric about community resilience.
Topic:: Displacement, Networks, Resilience, Society, Fragmentation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

2961. Humanitarian Aid as a Tool of Domination: The implications of distribution practices on social cohesion, human dignity, and self-agency in the Gaza Strip

Author:: Wessam Abu Amr
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: At the heart of the protracted humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, and more than twenty-two months since the outbreak of the war on October 7, 2023, humanitarian aid has become an integral part of the daily landscape for the population of the Strip, not only because of the magnitude of the humanitarian disaster resulting from the blockade, military operations, demolitions, destruction and displacement, but also because more than two-thirds of the population depend on it as the main source of food and basic needs, this growing dependence has made aid transform from short-term emergency interventions into a structural element of everyday survival, with the lives of individuals and families tied directly to the continuity or disruption of aid flows.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Humanitarian Crisis, Social Cohesion, Agency, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

2962. What if…? Ten Dragon King scenarios for 2030

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: S urprise isn’t just something we like or don’t like (studies show one is neurologically predisposed one way or another)1. Surprise has strategic value.2 When unexpected events unfold, humans need time to respond as their brains update their world view, hence the initial reaction to freeze. Depending on the magnitude of the surprise, this can range from a few seconds to several days or even weeks. And what is true for individuals is also true for groups of all kinds, such as states, military organizations or companies: it can take days or even weeks for the collective to make sense of what is actually happening and how to respond. In war time, this freeze moment can be a real asset. It creates space for operations that would not otherwise be possible – when coupled with low military readiness, the advantage is doubled. Stalin, for instance, allegedly went into shock for over a week when Nazi Germany attacked the Soviet Union despite a mutual non-aggression pact – a week that the Wehrmacht used to its advantage.3 Other examples of the use of strategic surprise include the Suez War in 1956 or the Hamas attacks of 7 October (it is worth noting that terrorist groups rely overwhelmingly on surprise as they usually have little in the way of hard assets.) Taking an opponent by surprise therefore means buying yourself time to gain an advantage on the battlefield.4 Reducing surprise can happen in two ways. One is early warning: detecting developments early enough to understand, and if necessary, counter them. Most NATO Allies and, of course, NATO bodies possess units that monitor areas of interest and analyse possible scenarios. These units are, by and large, good at what they do, but they cannot catch everything. Where opponents deliberately disguise their intentions and moves, or where powerful biases work against clear analysis, we need a different approach to reduce the impact of surprise: imagination.5 This is not as simple as imagining something preposterous such as aliens landing on planet Earth, but requires thorough research into weak signals that a change may be imminent. Armed with these weak signals, authors then push causalities towards a scenario that may be low in probability but high in impact. The benefit of these scenarios is twofold. They complement early warning systems and intelligence analysis by covering areas that are too fringe, too unlikely to be explored. They therefore close gaps in thinking and anticipation. As a result, the reaction time is shorter when the event in question occurs: reading the scenario creates a “memory of the future,” a cognitive familiarity. Furthermore, even if an event occurs that is not identical, but similar, the benefits of familiarity will be the same. Lastly, all scenarios, regardless of their likelihood, increase preparedness because they train human causality thinking, as well as fringe thinking, thereby reducing bias and increasing cognitive agility. This is one of the reasons why the U.S. Army uses zombie scenarios to train these abilities, as well as more realistic scenarios.6 However, the scenarios in this Insight are not zombie scenarios. As in the previous What If edition, authors were asked to think of a possible development resulting from a weak signal, an indication of a change that they would often have overlooked. Each scenario here has a basis in reality, even if the probability of the scenario occurring may be low. Their utility lies not in their likelihood, but in their capacity to engage you in innovative thinking, which in turn increases your mental preparedness. They are called Dragon Kings: rare, but impactful when they do occur.
Topic:: NATO, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Palestine, Romania, Georgia, Egypt, Black Sea, and Suez

2963. Impact of the Humanitarian Crisis in the Gaza Strip on the Marginalized Groups (Women, Children and People with Disabilities) – 7th October 2023 – 15th June 2025

Author:: Wael Fteaha and Omar Shaban
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: On 7th October 2023, some few thousands Palestinian fighters, led by the military wing of Hamas, and the Islamic Jehad, penetrated north and east borders of the Gaza strip targeted adjacent Israeli communities, killing about 1300 people and taking at least 236 hostages. Two days later, Israel declared a total blockade on Gaza and the Israeli defense minister declared “There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly.” Israel defined its war policy on the Gaza Strip by using collective punishment, dehumanization, and starvation. Aggressive statements against the people of Gaza were released by Israeli officials, especially the finance minister and the Minister of Interior Security who are still playing vital roles in the Israeli cabinet that is leading the war against Gaza. Israel launched aggressive military operation in the first week, started with heavy raids on military and government facilities, open agricultural fields and civilians’ house, and followed by ongoing invasion. More than 54,000 Palestinians were killed, 150 thousand were injured and few thousands stuck under rubbles. Throughout this Israeli aggression, Gaza has been undergoing severe humanitarian crisis.
Topic:: Children, Women, Disability, Humanitarian Crisis, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2964. Russia’s naval futures: new horizons 2050

Author:: Andrew Monaghan
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Moscow is launching a large-scale and strategic process to enhance its maritime power. This is designed to overhaul the shipbuilding industry and to shape a new image of the Russian navy. This is changing the characteristics of Russian strategic power. This overhaul characterises Moscow’s strategy making, more generally in terms of the leadership’s priorities and also systemic problems, and more specifi cally in the attempt to connect economic interests and military power. It reveals how the Russian leadership views the future: the process shapes a planning horizon out to 2050. It also includes shorter term scenarios. This is particularly important for NATO, because much of Moscow’s thinking about potential confl ict is in the maritime domain, especially in the Baltic Sea and Arctic.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

2965. NATO’s future: a history

Author:: Bruno Tertrais
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: How was the future of NATO envisioned in the past? Is the Atlantic Alliance still faithful to the original intents of its founders? The purpose of this short paper is to take a look back at how NATO’s purpose was conceived and how leaders and experts saw its future, in order to draw lessons for the coming decades. Pessimism about the solidity and survivability of the Alliance turned out to be misplaced, but assumptions about some of its fundamental tenets were not always correct.
Topic:: Security, NATO, History, Alliance, and Pessimism
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

2966. How accurate is forecasting of military technologies?

Author:: Alexander Kott and Philip Perconti
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: We show that the accuracy of military technology forecasts is respectably high, 76% or better, depending on how an accurate forecast is defi ned. Long-term technology forecasting can be quite accurate and can inform NATO’s military research and development management decisions.
Topic:: NATO, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, Research and Development, and Military Technology
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

2967. The Financing of Energy Transition in Senegal: Green promises, unequal gains?

Author:: Steffen Haag, Mohamadou Fadel Diop, and Thialy Faye
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Senegal's energy transition is at a critical juncture. While the country has made significant progress in terms of access to electricity and the integration of renewable energies, its energy financing model remains heavily dependent on foreign private investment and favors the latter. This implies debt-based financing and risk mitigation mechanisms that protect investors while risking increased fiscal pressure on the state. The dominant model of independent power producers (IPPs) shows how heavily these projects depend on sovereign guarantees and international financial institutions (IFIs) to attract capital. While these projects increase electricity production, they also reinforce financial dependence, can lead to local socioeconomic inequalities, and create an energy system that primarily serves the interests of investors rather than reducing inequalities. This study examines the financial mechanisms underlying Senegal's energy transition, highlighting their implications for national sovereignty, a just transition, transparency, and accountability. It also explores alternative financing models, such as community initiatives like the “Progrès Lait” project and the “Programme d'accès aux énergies renouvelables” (PAER), which integrate renewable energy into local economies and strengthen energy sovereignty.
Topic:: Finance, Climate Finance, Private Sector, Energy Transition, and Neocolonialism
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

2968. Intersectional Feminism: A Primer

Author:: María del Rosario Castro Bernardini, Namalie Jayasinghe, Sebastián Molano, Paige Castellanos, and Molly Kellogg
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This primer introduces the concept of intersectional feminism and serves as a guiding document for Oxfam America staff. Intersectional feminism explores multiple and intertwined systems of oppression such as patriarchy, racism, and capitalism through three core pillars: gender, race/ethnicity, and class. Intersectional feminism is crucial to the work of Oxfam America because of the complexity of the issues the organization engages in with partners and communities. We must increase our ability to make sense of the multiple experiences of gender oppression at the individual, systemic, and structural levels. Throughout this primer, we include examples from the literature and Oxfam’s work to showcase how we are endeavoring to incorporate intersectional feminism in our work. By embedding intersectional feminism in our analyses and approaches, we demonstrate our shared commitment to addressing systemic inequalities and enhancing the effectiveness and integrity of our shared mission.
Topic:: Feminism, Class, Intersectionality, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2969. Kenya’s Inequality Crisis: The great economic divide

Author:: Anthony Kamande and Beverly Musili
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The Status of Inequality in Kenya 2025 report provides a comprehensive analysis of inequality trends in income, wealth, and access to essential public services such as health and education. It highlights how deepening disparities in public service delivery continue to shape social and economic outcomes and offers bold policy recommendations to advance equality and inclusive growth. This report comes at a critical time, as Kenya grapples with growing economic pressures, rising living costs, and fiscal constraints that affect the provision of quality public services. The findings seek to inform ongoing national debates on economic inequality, tax reform, public finance management, and social protection; key levers for addressing inequality and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and Vision 2030.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Public Service, Public Finance, Economic Inclusion, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

2970. Beyond Aid in Ghana

Author:: Godwin Bokpin, Theophilus Acheampong, and Patrick Opoku Asuming
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Beyond Aid in Ghana sketches the evolution of aid in Ghana as the country assumed a lower middle-income status in its development agenda. It seeks to understand the realities of this trajectory in a milieu of dwindling aid. The report offers an alternative with a focus on domestic revenue mobilisation and emphasises a shift away from consumption-led borrowing to productive investment in core sectors of the economy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Education, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Resources, Inequality, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

2971. Not Everyone Is in the Same Boat: Climate and inequality in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Barbara Summers, Julie Greenwalt, and Nabil Abdo
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The Middle East and North Africa is one of the regions that will be affected the most by climate change, extreme weather events, exacerbating the chronic water scarcity that it suffers from and current dependency on fossil fuels. Climate change impacts are already witnessed in many countries, especially those experiencing conflicts. At the same time the decades-long austerity policies in the region are not only fuelling inequalities but also make it virtually impossible for the countries in the region to spend on climate. The climate threats driven by the richest people, corporations, and rentier economies are existential to the region. Meanwhile, people living in poverty, marginalized communities vulnerable to climate change and those living in conflict-settings are the ones impacted the hardest. Women and girls, refugees and other groups experiencing discrimination, are particularly at disadvantage to current austerity policies and the consequences of climate change. The consequences are felt in all parts of the region and by most people, yet only the richest people have the wealth and the power and influence to adapt from the consequences of climate breakdown. Austerity policies are exacerbating the climate crisis, and the only way to address the climate breakdown is through taxing the wealthy and their polluting consumptions and massively invest in public services and climate mitigation, adaptation and transition.
Topic:: Climate Change, Austerity, Carbon Emissions, Wealth, and Billionaires
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

2972. Unjust Transition: Reclaiming the energy future from climate colonialism

Author:: Mateo Adarve Zuluaga, Natalie Shortall, Hilde Stroot, Naira Wayand, and Valeska Ruiz
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The global energy transition stands at a pivotal moment: it can either dismantle the inequalities driving the climate crisis or deepen them. Today, the transition risks reproducing patterns of extractivism and exploitation, with the most marginalized paying the highest price while elites profit. From transition mineral mining to debt burdens and unequal energy access, the current trajectory mirrors centuries of colonial injustice. A just transition must redistribute power and resources, curb overconsumption, and prioritize dignity and rights for all. This report outlines pathways to build an energy system grounded in equality, justice, care and collective wellbeing —where energy serves life, not profit.
Topic:: Climate Change, Debt, Inequality, Renewable Energy, Reparations, Exploitation, Financial Systems, Green Transition, Extractivism, Climate Colonialism, and Energy Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2973. Africa’s Inequality Crisis and the Rise of the Super-Rich

Author:: Anthony Kamande and Hallum Christian
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Africa is facing a double inequality crisis: extreme inequality alongside weak commitment among its governments to fight it. But there is hope. The African Union has urged member states to reduce inequality by 15% in the coming decade and has identified progressive taxation as a key tool to do so. The challenge, though, is the “how” – to achieve this target. Most African countries are not fully leveraging progressive taxation to effectively tax the super-rich and address inequality. The reasons for this are many, including the regressive policies peddled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the corrosive impact of illicit financial flows, and the lack of political will to confront inequality.
Topic:: Inequality, Tax Systems, Austerity, Public Service, Neocolonialism, and Debt Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa

2974. Emerging Good Practices on Embedding Human Rights into Seafood Procurement

Author:: Lia Hayman and Isabela Lorenzoni
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: As seafood demand rises, it has been accompanied by a growing understanding of persistent human rights abuses. Recent reports have highlighted how poor procurement practices can contribute to abuses, while stronger practices can reduce them. This report reviews the current landscape and how buyers are enhancing their procurement practices to align with their human rights commitments. It provides examples in areas such as embedding human rights personnel within procurement teams, sustainable costing in price negotiations and preferential sourcing from suppliers that respect human rights. The briefing sets out actions for businesses to ensure alignment of procurement and human rights commitments.
Topic:: Human Rights, Fishing, Procurement, and Seafood
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2975. How to increase taxes on fossil fuel profits

Author:: Martin Brehm Christensen, Ashfaq Khalfan, Anders Sypniewski Dahlbeck, Christian Hallum, and Alex Maitland
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Taxing excess profits, both in the fossil fuel industry and the overall corporate sector, is essential to restructure the economy to tackle climate breakdown, reduce inequality and make rich polluters pay. This briefing paper sets out Oxfam’s proposal for two taxes: a Rich Polluter Profit Tax (RPPT) on fossil fuel corporations, and an Excess Profit Tax (EPT) across all other sectors. An RPPT will ensure renewables are always more profitable than fossil fuel investments, and an EPT will reduce market concentration and the concentration of wealth, reducing inequality. Both can be implemented through existing corporate tax systems. Together, they could raise over US $1 trillion in their first year, which could fund vital investments for people and the planet. The paper explains how governments can design, administer and coordinate these taxes nationally and globally, to fund a just, gender responsive climate transition and fairer public finance.
Topic:: Inequality, Climate Finance, Tax Systems, Pollution, Fossil Fuels, and Climate Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2976. Optimizing Azerbaijan’s CICA Chairmanship

Author:: Madina Alasgarova, Aysel Bayramova, Fatima Huseynli, Ashley Nhabete, and Goncha Salahova
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The Conference on Interaction and Confidence‑Building Measures in Asia (CICA) is a multinational and multilateral platform designed to enhance dialogue and foster cooperation among its 28 member states, including Azerbaijan. With a mission to improve security, stability, and confidence‑building in the region, CICA stands out as a unique format that focuses exclusively on security issues, distinct from frameworks like the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It is, in fact, the most inclusive pan‑Asian security forum. Currently, the established Western‑centric security formats are experiencing erosion and legitimacy crises that undermine their ability to address the security concerns of Eurasia in general and the Silk Road region in particular. Consequently, CICA’s role as an exclusively non‑Western security platform is gaining prominence across Asia. Azerbaijan’s 2024‑ 2026 CICA chairmanship presents a strategic opportunity to advance regional and pan‑Asian security cooperation—or at least serve as a more effective platform for dialogue, free from the presence of outsiders. Drawing on its successful experience in advancing efforts to institutionalize the Non‑Aligned Movement (NAM), Azerbaijan, with its growing influence in multilateral formats, is well‑positioned to advance the process to transform CICA from a discussion format into a more structured and impactful platform—that is to say, into a fully‑fledged intergovernmental organization. To that end, this paper offers concrete and actionable policy proposals to ensure that Azerbaijan’s chairmanship is productive and beneficial for its member states. None are game‑changing, but taken as a whole, we believe they can help move the needle noticeably forward. Our approach is informed by a conviction that CICA can support Azerbaijan in navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape, promoting security in Asia through various confidence‑building measures (CBMs), and fostering new partnerships across the continent. Parts of this paper should thus also be understood as contributing to the discourse on the expanding role of the non‑Western regional multilateral frameworks in a changing and highly fragmented international order.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, International Order, and Confidence Building Measures
Political Geography:: Caucasus and Azerbaijan

2977. Azerbaijan’s Multilateralist Posture

Author:: Yalchin Rafiyev
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: We are honored to feature an interview with Mr. Yalchin Rafiyev, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Lead Negotiator for COP29. The general topic of this conversation is multilateralism and Azerbaijan’s growing involvement in various multilateral forums. Mr. Deputy Foreign Minister, let’s focus the bulk of our time together on the newer multilateral organizations—the ones that are contributing to a transformation of the way that the world sees multilateralism. Perhaps a good starting point is for you to outline Azerbaijan’s overall posture toward multilateralism, which, of course, begins with the UN, the world’s sole universal multilateral, inter‑governmental institution.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Multilateralism, and Interview
Political Geography:: Caucasus and Azerbaijan

2978. The D-8 and Azerbaijan: The “Islamic Eight” and the Ongoing Shift in the Global Balance of Power

Author:: Inara Yagubova
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The long‑held notion of the rules‑based liberal international order, which may be defined as consisting of globalization and a world order headed by the United States (benignly, in its self‑conception), is progressively waning. A new perspective that acknowledges the Global South’s importance and its increasing prominence on the international scene is beginning to take shape, with a shift from unipolarity to multipolarity. Instead of following the lead of the superpowers, the strong, serious, and ambitious countries that make up the Global South have become outspoken and influential players in international affairs, promoting causes that serve their own interests. In the conduct of foreign policy, one can say that more countries in more parts of the world are putting their countries first. Several key features highlight the growing autonomy of countries in the Global South. Despite their significant differences, they all prioritize economic expansion and strengthening ties with other countries through trade and investment. They are free from the geopolitical ambitions of the leading countries of the developed world and conduct their affairs in an independent (or multivectoral) way. In fact, rather than only reacting to outside forces, they are increasingly establishing new trade, technological, and economic development relationships that fit with their own strategic aims. Global power dynamics are therefore changing, particularly in the areas of commerce, climate diplomacy, and multilateral cooperation. Azerbaijan stands out as a strategic pivot in this context, using its location, political neutrality, and assertive diplomacy to operate as a link between these two international arenas. To that end, Azerbaijan has put forward several initiatives to be a platform for cooperation between the Global South and the Global North by increasing its interaction with developing countries. As President Ilham Aliyev stated on 20 July 2024 at the Shusha Global Media Forum, “We launch initiatives. We now actively work with developing countries in order to build bridges between the Global South and the Global North. Our advantage is that we’ve been chairing the Non‑Aligned Movement for four years.” At an international forum themed “Facing the New World Order” at the ADA University on 25 April 2025, Aliyev stated that “Of course, we played an important role in building bridges between the Global South and the Global North. That was one of the important assignments, which we put in front of ourselves. So, the way how we tackled COVID, the way how we hosted COP29 […], and bilateral contacts with African countries demonstrate clearly our agenda." In the past year or so, this agenda has included the successful organization of COP29, the takeover of the chairmanships of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence‑Building Measures in Asia (CICA) and Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), served as host of the summit of the Economic Cooperation Organization, and completed its chairmanship of GUAM. Next year, it will preside over both the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and so on. Azerbaijan is one of a handful of countries that is a member of European, Asian, Turkic, and Muslim interstate organizations. As an active supporter of multilateralism that pursues an independent foreign policy posture and is situated at the crossroads of flagship connectivity projects, Azerbaijan seeks to enhance its standing as a bridge between East and West, as well as North and South.
Topic:: Globalization, International Cooperation, Islam, Multilateralism, Autonomy, and International Order
Political Geography:: Caucasus and Azerbaijan

2979. Why the U.S. Should Embrace Israel-Azerbaijan Alignment

Author:: Stephen Blank
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: This essay argues that Azerbaijan’s joining the Abraham Accords and formalizing its entente with Israel and the U.S. is eminently in the interests of all three states, particularly in the context of the Middle East, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia. In the wake of the 12‑day Israel‑Iran war and the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, as well as the U.S. proposal to oversee and perhaps even guarantee arrangements regarding the Zangezur Corridor to foster peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, this argument makes even more sense, given that Washington has expressed a clear interest in having peace and a lasting presence in the Caucasus. These events highlight the American presence in both the Middle East and the Caucasus and its de facto alliance with Israel. Given the growing intimacy of Azerbaijan‑Israeli ties and U.S. interest in pacifying the South Caucasus, this move by Washington and Baku to formalize ties among these three states would be all the more logical now. Indeed, President Ilham Aliyev has publicly welcomed this American initiative. This idea of extending the Abraham Accords to Azerbaijan apparently originated in Israel. Still, there is no sign that Azerbaijan opposes this notion. Moreover, as shown below, this tandem acts—and can act even further—in critical areas to further interests congruent with those of the United States. Since this partnership, long a fixture in world affairs, both reflects and can extend trends in world affairs that are beneficial not only to Israel and Azerbaijan but also to the U.S. Washington should encourage Baku to take this step. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu had to postpone his scheduled visit to Baku in May 2025, his postponement letter cited the deepening bond between the two states, which can be seen in increasing economic cooperation, expanded tourism to and from both countries, Israel’s construction of Azerbaijan’s satellites, and two daily flights by Azerbaijani airlines between the two countries. While this partnership, if not a formal alliance, is primarily founded on a shared fear of Iran’s aggressive intentions against both states, this tandem has now strengthened the economic dimension of the relationship. It is thereby forging a broader and deeper foundation that transcends shared anxieties. This can also be seen in Israel’s technology and defense trade with Azerbaijan, where Baku employed Israeli weapons in its campaigns in Karabakh and is buying Israeli radar and aerial detection systems. However, at the same time, this alignment also exemplifies a larger trend towards trans‑regional partnerships between Middle Eastern and South Caucasus states. A similar trend is observed in Central Asia, where Kazakhstan’s President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev proposed in 2024 that his country establish a strategic partnership with Qatar. Similarly, those Gulf states that are already working with Israel are becoming more entangled with Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus. Consequently, the Azerbaijan‑Israel partnership is no anomaly, but rather an illustration of a discernible trend in world politics that Washington should embrace.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Azerbaijan, and United States of America

2980. In the Grip of Global Bifurcation: The EU and its Possible Futures

Author:: Robert M. Cutler
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: A dozen years ago, I led a three‑week international scenario‑planning simulation for Wikistrat involving 80 experts across three continents. Our aim was to forecast plausible trajectories for the European Union through 2030. We developed four distinct “Master Narratives,” each representing a structurally coherent future. One scenario, Solidarity in Misery, envisioned the EU maintaining its formal institutional unity while stagnating economically and compensating for this stagnation through increasingly fervent affirmations of symbolic European identity. As of 2025, this scenario most closely resembles the EU’s current condition. The simulation did not just identify static end‑states; it mapped causal sequences—policy pathways and decision‑points—through which the EU might either entrench or escape each scenario. In the case of Solidarity in Misery, there were multiple routes to a more favorable future, marked by both economic dynamism and social cohesion. These routes, while varied in detail, shared broad structural characteristics. The scenario to which they pointed was called Wealthy Europe. Achieving it required a coordinated suite of interventions across fiscal, monetary, migratory, and geopolitical domains. Today, more than a decade later, Mario Draghi’s September 2024 Report on European Competitiveness, and Ursula von der Leyen’s January 2025 programmatic uptake of it, together constitute a partial, incomplete expression of that pivot. The Draghi report accurately diagnoses many of the EU’s structural weaknesses, and von der Leyen’s agenda selectively embraces its headline recommendations. Yet the incomplete nature of this policy uptake, combined with persistent institutional inertia and new external shocks, raises the specter that the system may absorb and neutralize its own attempts at self‑reform, even while ostensibly seeking transformation. This article evaluates whether the Draghi–von der Leyen trajectory can credibly shift the EU out of the Solidarity in Misery trap. It measures current reforms not only against their stated goals but also, more rigorously, against the systemic criteria outlined by the earlier simulation’s projected escape pathways. Using a complex‑systems lens, the analysis explores policy divergence, partial pivots, and latent fracture lines within the EU. It ultimately asks whether the Union is on the verge of meaningful transformation or merely rationalizing its own managed decline.
Topic:: International Relations, Reform, European Union, Institutions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

2981. Azerbaijan’s Multilateral Green Energy Diplomacy Powering: Regional Integration Through the Caspian-Black Sea Green Energy Corridor

Author:: Ahmad Humbatov
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: In some parts of the world, the global energy transition is accelerating, driven by increased electrification, expanding climate commitments, and the political drive to decarbonize economies. As demand for electricity generated from renewable sources increases—particularly in the markets controlled by the European Union or influenced by its unwavering commitment to climate action—so too does the strategic importance of cross‑border transmission infrastructure that can deliver renewable energy across regions. However, today’s grid systems remain fragmented, constrained by national borders, technical incompatibilities, and insufficient investment in transnational connectivity. In this context, large‑scale regional initiatives have become more important as critical enablers of energy security, economic integration, and climate resilience. Originally known as the Black Sea Submarine Cable, the project— now increasingly referred to as the Caspian–Black Sea or the Caspian–Black Sea–Europe Green Energy Corridor—represents one of the most ambitious and strategically significant responses to this challenge. The broader framing reflects both Azerbaijan’s prospective offshore wind contributions from the Caspian and the corridor’s potential to serve as a conduit for green electricity from Central Asia, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Although initially focused on a Georgia–Romania connection, the project has evolved to represent a broader strategic vision that links the South Caucasus and Central Asia, due to a combination of Azerbaijan’s geoeconomic ambition and the EU’s aspiration to lead the world in establishing a future powered by renewable energy systems. This paper explores the Caspian–Black Sea–Europe Energy Corridor, focusing on its structure, governance, and broader regional implications. It analyzes Azerbaijan’s strategic shift from a hydrocarbons exporter to an enabler of renewable energy systems. It examines how the development of this corridor is reshaping regional diplomacy, fostering economic integration, and advancing multilateral cooperation. In doing so, it highlights Azerbaijan’s emerging role as both a green electricity supplier and a facilitator of cross‑regional energy connectivity.
Topic:: Multilateralism, Regional Integration, Decarbonization, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Azerbaijan, Caspian Sea, and Black Sea

2982. CICA and Azerbaijan: Does Membership Have Its Privileges?

Author:: Nijat Aliyev
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Azerbaijan continues to follow an independent (or multivector or balanced) foreign policy strategy, based on the assessment that it represents the best way to protect and even strengthen its sovereignty. After the liberation of Karabakh, Azerbaijan has increased its efforts in multilateral fora in both Asia and Europe. Consequently, in Baku’s conception, the intergovernmental organization Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), established in 1992 and formalized in 1999, is gaining increasing importance as it seeks to enhance its role in fostering security and peace throughout Asia. This paper explores the impact of Azerbaijan’s engagement through CICA, including its ongoing chairmanship (2024‑2026), on its relationships with neighboring countries and, more broadly, its international relations. We aim to understand: How has Azerbaijan’s active involvement in CICA helped it strengthen ties with other Asian countries and boost its role in Eurasia? How does joining CICA align with Baku’s other international efforts? By addressing these questions, the paper highlights the benefits and challenges of CICA participation for Azerbaijan and explains how CICA influences its diplomatic standing in the South Caucasus and farther afield.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Multilateralism, Engagement, and Confidence Building Measures
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

2983. Ten Years after HIPPO: Assessing Progress and Charting the Future of UN Peace Operations

Author:: Jenna Russo, Bitania Tadesse, and Ilianna Kotini
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Ten years after the High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations (HIPPO) released its landmark report “Uniting Our Strengths for Peace,” UN peace operations face new challenges that test the UN’s capacity to adapt to an evolving global landscape. As the UN examines the future of peace operations, it is timely to review the recommendations of the HIPPO report, many of which remain pertinent to today’s policy discussions. This report reassesses the findings of the HIPPO report in light of today’s peace operations contexts, analyzes where there has and has not been progress, and considers how the HIPPO report can be useful to current discussions. Overall, today’s peace operations operate in a more challenging environment than in 2015, facing a more divided Security Council, severe financial constraints, and questions about the UN’s legitimacy. Nonetheless, the report concludes that many of HIPPO’s core insights remain relevant, and the findings and recommendations of the HIPPO report can help inform current policy discussions on the future of peace operations: UN80 Initiative: The secretary-general should articulate a clear vision guided by the New Agenda for Peace and Pact for the Future, ensuring cuts do not compromise the UN’s readiness to deploy peace operations or institutional memory. Review on the Future of Peace Operations: The Secretariat should use this review to identify what forms of peace operations the UN is best positioned to support and the capacities needed to backstop these efforts effectively. Modular Approaches: The Secretariat should develop frameworks for implementing modular mission designs while ensuring critical areas of work like the protection of civilians, gender, and human rights remain prioritized in streamlined mandates. Peacebuilding and Prevention: All member states should develop national prevention strategies as called for in the Pact for the Future, and the UN should consider pooling early-warning resources with regional organizations. Political Primacy: The secretary-general should clarify what the primacy of politics means in contexts without viable peace processes, encompassing politics beyond the signing of a formal agreement at the national level. Advancing Partnerships: The UN should embrace more ambitious partnerships that leverage its normative independence while drawing on regional organizations’ proximity to crises, focusing on prevention and mediation alongside peace enforcement.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Partnerships, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2984. Compensation Preferences in Agricultural Insurance Among Smallholders in Rural Kenya

Author:: Francesco Cecchi and Samyuktha Kannan
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: Despite the high incidence of adverse weather shocks, the demand for agricultural insurance remains stubbornly low, even among risk-averse smallholder farmers with poor access to social safety nets. Two major barriers to adoption concern (i) cyclical illiquidity in agriculture households and (ii) the lack of trust in insurance providers. Standard insurance contracts that provide compensation for losses as a lump sum over an uncertain time horizon post-harvest exacerbate these concerns. In this study, we leverage recent advancements in digitally-enabled loss estimation and payments infrastructure to modify contracts in a manner than can address these barriers. We test whether allowing farmers greater choice in structuring compensation transfers from agricultural insurance reveals preferences for earlier and/or smaller transfers and secondly, whether farmers value an insurance product with customized compensation preferences more than a standard contract. We pilot this innovation through a randomized control design over one agricultural season among 1600 farmers in Kenya. We compare farmers payment preferences, and estimate differences in willingness-to-pay (WTP) and uptake for a contract offering customized compensation compared to the standard contract. We test for differences in preferences across gender, access to liquidity and other characteristics captured through a single in-person survey round. We measure time preferences at multiple points through the season using an innovative USSD-code based platform to describe the effect of seasonal liquidity and preferences on the timing and size of transfers.
Topic:: Agriculture, Risk, Liquidity, Smallholders, and Crop Insurance
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

2985. Evolution of Village Social Order in Rural Bangladesh: A 50-Year Analysis

Author:: Mirza Hassan, Syeda Salina Aziz, Asif Shahan, Aishwarya Sanjukta Roy Proma, Jahid Nur, Sumaiya Tasnim, and Raihan Ahamed
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: Villages as a research focus received high priority during the 1970s. This focus waned over time, particularly in the post-2008 period, a time when the country also began to face a serious political setback and came under dominant party rule for the next 15 years. The altered political context had a profound impact on policy, governance, and sociopolitical processes at both national and local levels. In this context, the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) took the initiative in 2023 to study the major changes in the villages of Bangladesh, particularly over the past 25–30 years. The broad Changing Village study encompasses seven thematic areas: culture, migration, climate change and environment, built environment, financial inclusion, agriculture, and social and political order. The detailed context of the Changing Village study, its methodology, sampling, and the description of the sample villages can be found in the paper, গ্রাম পরিবর্তনঃ প্রেক্ষাপট ও গবেষণা কৌশল (Changing Village: Context and Methodology). This working paper is based on research conducted under the social and political order theme.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Migration, Culture, Social Order, Inclusion, and Villages
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

2986. Empowering Female Domestic Workers Through Digital Finance

Author:: Bansi Malde, Maliha Rahanaz, and Zaki Wahhaj
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: We examine the impact of an intervention that combines digital finance and general financial literacy training targeted at women employed in the domestic work sector in Bangladesh. Study participants were randomly assigned to receive offers of two-day training at a hub operated by a digital gig work platform. We find substantial effects on savings behaviour and labour market outcomes 12 months after the intervention. We find no effects on awareness of, or trust in, mobile money transactions, intra-household transfers or spousal pressure to share resources. Our findings suggest that the intervention encouraged the use of mobile money accounts among domestic workers to retain personal control of earnings which, in turn, led to an increase in paid work that involved wages being paid directly into these accounts.
Topic:: Labor Market, Gig Economy, Digital Finance, and Financial Literacy
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

2987. Keeping Sudan in Focus: Policy Options for the Protection of Civilians

Author:: Bitania Tadesse
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Sudan’s war has left millions in need of protection, as civilians continue to endure mass displacement, famine, widespread violence, and grave human rights violations. Despite commitments to international humanitarian law and the protection of civilians, both the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have persistently targeted civilians, and international efforts to protect them have so far been insufficient. While ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, the protection of civilians cannot wait, and the international community must act now. This report examines the policy options available to member states, the UN, and regional actors to support the protection of civilians in Sudan. It highlights feasible measures that can be taken even as ceasefire negotiations remain elusive, including the following: Navigating a Divided Security Council: Security Council members, particularly the three African members, could pursue a new resolution on Sudan with backing from the African Union (AU); utilize informal mechanisms like Arria-formula meetings and subsidiary bodies of the council to build consensus; and organize a field visit to Sudan to engage stakeholders and elevate international attention. Leveraging the Role of the General Assembly: The General Assembly could continue to hold the Security Council accountable by convening debates following any future vetoes, support UN and AU fact-finding missions, and exercise normative power by adopting a resolution on civilian protection in Sudan. Foresight and Planning by the UN Secretariat: The UN Secretariat could undertake proactive scenario-based planning for the deployment of a future protection force or ceasefire monitoring mechanism, including by developing a comprehensive political strategy and implementation framework. Joint Efforts with Regional Actors: The AU should ensure it has a cohesive approach to the protection of civilians in Sudan by enhancing communication among African capitals and between Addis Ababa and New York. The UN and AU should also ensure their efforts are complementary, including by collaborating on their fact-finding missions and improving engagement between their genocide prevention offices. Contact Group to Steer the Protection Agenda in Sudan: A coalition of committed member states could establish a contact group on Sudan to develop a coherent political strategy, engage the warring parties and their backers with sustained diplomatic pressure, and create a dedicated mediation track for civilian protection.
Topic:: United Nations, Civilians, UN Security Council, and Protection
Political Geography:: Sudan and Middle East

2988. Training on Sexual Exploitation and Abuse for Uniformed Peacekeepers: Effectiveness and Limitations

Author:: Phoebe Donnelly, Sabrina Karim, DeAnne Roark, and Muhibbur Rahman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) by UN peacekeepers continues to undermine the organization’s legitimacy and effectiveness. While training on SEA is required for all UN personnel deploying to UN peace operations, there is little data available on how effective these trainings are. This paper presents the first quantitative analysis of SEA training’s effectiveness, using original survey data from more than 4,000 uniformed personnel in ten countries. The analysis reveals that SEA training has a significant positive impact on attitudes and knowledge about SEA. Personnel who completed pre-deployment SEA training were substantially more likely to recognize that SEA would violate their national policy, to consider SEA to be serious, and to express willingness to report SEA. The analysis also found that UN deployment increases the likelihood that personnel will receive various gender-related trainings beyond SEA. However, despite pre-deployment SEA training being mandatory, a significant proportion of deployed peacekeepers reported never receiving this training. Although the quantitative analysis shows positive links between SEA training and views on SEA and reporting, the paper also explores limitations in current approaches to SEA training. Interviews and workshops with training experts underscored the need for SEA trainings to contextualize and apply the material rather than focus on prescriptive instruction. SEA training also needs to focus on behavioral and cultural change rather than mere policy compliance. The paper concludes that while current SEA training shows measurable positive effects on attitudes and knowledge, improvements in delivery methods and enforcement of training requirements are necessary to maximize this training’s effectiveness and create lasting institutional change.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sexual Exploitation, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2989. The Operational Imperative of Integrating Gender into Peacekeeping-Intelligence

Author:: Sarah-Myriam Martin-Brûlé
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Peacekeeping-intelligence (PKI) plays a central role in enhancing the safety and security of UN personnel and in supporting mandate implementation, particularly the protection of civilians. Yet despite growing recognition that gender dynamics shape conflict behavior, threat patterns, and community engagement, gender perspectives remain unevenly integrated across PKI institutions, analytical processes, and training systems. This limits missions’ situational awareness, weakens their early-warning capacity, and constrains their operational effectiveness. This issue brief examines how gender can be more systematically integrated into PKI across three interrelated dimensions: the representation of women within PKI institutions, the integration of gender perspectives across the PKI cycle, and the design and delivery of PKI training. Drawing on UN policies and more than 100 interviews with personnel across five peacekeeping missions, the brief highlights persistent structural, analytical, and institutional gaps that undermine gender-responsive intelligence. The brief argues that integrating gender into PKI is not merely a normative obligation but a core operational requirement. Advancing this agenda requires sustained investment in workforce diversity, analytical methodologies, data systems, training design, and institutional collaboration to strengthen predictive capacity, enhance civilian protection, and improve mission performance.
Topic:: Intelligence, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2990. The Financing for Development Agenda after Sevilla: Aligning Commitments and Actions

Author:: David Mulet
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: With just five years left to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, the global financing gap has widened to $4.3 trillion per year. The Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD), held in Sevilla in July 2025, sought to renew multilateral consensus around mobilizing resources for sustainable development. This issue brief by David Mulet analyzes the Compromiso de Sevilla—the conference’s negotiated outcome—and the Sevilla Platform for Action (SPA), a voluntary registry of 130 coalitions and initiatives. It highlights how new mechanisms on sovereign debt, blended finance, and climate-linked instruments are translating commitments into action. At the same time, the brief underscores persistent gaps in systemic reform, including of the international debt architecture, international tax cooperation, the large-scale reallocation of special drawing rights, governance of the multilateral development banks, and climate finance. It argues that closing the global financing gap requires bridging intergovernmental commitments with voluntary innovation to ensure that experimentation accumulates into structural change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Reform, Finance, Sovereign Debt, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2991. Reciprocal Defense Procurement: The Missing Element in U.S.-ROK Relations

Author:: Hwa Yu and Brian Hobbs
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Reciprocal Defense Procurement (RDP) agreements—managed by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)—exempt “qualifying countries” from Buy American restrictions in return for reciprocal market access and closer strategic alignment. Since the inaugural 1956 agreement with Canada, the DoD has concluded 28 RDP agreements mostly with NATO allies to foster rationalization, standardization, interchangeability, and interoperability among military forces. They also waive specialty-metal restrictions, improving access to critical minerals. Qualifying countries typically possess advanced robust defense industries, field U.S. weapon systems, and face regional threats from Russia or China. Post-Cold War additions such as Austria, Finland and Australia showcased geographic and political expansion; Japan and the Baltic states followed amid rising Russian and Chinese pressure. Ongoing negotiations with Brazil and India illustrate evolving aims: integrating key BRICS economies, shoring up rare earth supply chains, and aligning non-aligned states against rival powers— while discussions with South Korea reflect efforts to deepen industrial cooperation with existing allies. Domestic stakeholder pressures, defense offsets, and “America First” trade policies complicate RDP negotiations, yet countries with robust industry, shared security interests, and demand for U.S. weapons remain strong candidates for future agreements, strengthening a resilient, globally integrated defense industry network.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Tariffs, BRICS, Procurement, Department of Defense (DoD), and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

2992. Ascension of North Korea as a Nuclear State: A Consequence of Childhood Neglect?

Author:: Nykolus Alvut and Kelvin Mote
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: North Korea recently announced the rejection of reunification with South Korea, discarding over 70 years of stability in Northeast Asia. Kim Jongun's new approach to the North–South conflict caught many by surprise, including South Korea. Initial reactions were nearly unanimous: North Korea’s decision injects significant uncertainty and risk into an already unstable region, increases instability, and renews fears of a North Koreainitiated war. However, what if North Korea’s decision injected stability and consistency into Northeast Asian geopolitics instead? Using an analytic framework grounded in political psychology, this article explains North Korea’s ascension to nuclear state status as a direct result of chronic neglect by the international community. The authors adapted the concept of Reactive Attachment Disorder (RAD) to diagnose North Korean decision-making and introduce a new concept—Strategic-Reactive Attachment Disorder (S-RAD)—based on the DSM-5-TR diagnostic criteria for RAD. The article argues that a new approach, formally recognizing North Korea as an independent nuclear state, would deescalate the likelihood of war and ensure regional peace and stability in Northeast Asia. The authors also identify policy and strategic actions, aligned with treatment criteria for RAD, which can be taken by the international community to treat the underlying S-RAD attachment ruptures.
Topic:: Politics, Nonproliferation, Psychology, Denuclearization, Korean War, Reunification, and Reactive Attachment Disorder
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and Korea

2993. “Unitary Social Democracy” and Lyuh Woon-hyung’s Relationship with the American Military Government in Korea, 1945-1947

Author:: Kyu-hyun Jo
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This article will argue that “Unitary Social Democracy” had its roots in egalitarianism as emphasized by Tonghak and Christian Humanism and aimed to promote social democracy through a mixture of democratic electoral politics and a Socialistic welfare system; it was due to such a radical amalgamation of Left-wing and Right-wing ideas which earned Lyuh the American military government’s ire and led Lyuh to an ultimate failure in finding a satisfactory agreement with American officials who refused and could not understand Lyuh’s objectives. However, despite American reluctance to understand his philosophy, Lyuh never gave up on his quest to realize an equitable system of land and property distribution guided by democracy and socialism, and he never relinquished his firm belief that the only solution to eradicating the Manicheanism of the Cold War was through seeking the American military government’s cooperation. This article will also argue that Lyuh showed a highly consistent and dedicated commitment to realizing his ideals such that he never changed or forfeited his philosophy even after north Korea was established in September 1945, keeping his creed intact until his announcement of the Seven Principles for Left-Right Unification in October 1946 and untimely assassination in July 1947.
Topic:: Government, Politics, History, Welfare, and Social Democracy
Political Geography:: Asia, Korea, and United States of America

2994. The UN ECOSOC NGO Committee and Civil Society Participation in the UN Process

Author:: Greg Scarlatoiu
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This article argues that while UN action on North Korean human rights has centered on the Human Rights Council, General Assembly, and Security Council, the role of the UN Committee on NGOs—gatekeeper to Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) consultative status—remains undeservedly overlooked. Dominated by anti-human rights undemocratic regimes, the Committee often blocks human rights defenders from participating in the UN system. Despite this, a few organizations—the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK), the People for Successful Corean Reunification (PSCORE), the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights (NKDB), and Christian Solidarity Worldwide—have managed to secure consultative status thanks to determined advocacy by like-minded states such as the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and South Korea. These cases, however, remain exceptions. The article contends that a more strategic, long-term effort is needed to diversify Committee membership by encouraging democratic states like South Korea and Japan to seek seats, replacing members with poor human rights records. This endeavor will take more than just international cooperation among the like-minded. Overcoming internal bureaucratic resistance and prioritizing resources for NGO Committee membership would expand access for credible NGOs, strengthen international civil society, and ultimately increase pressure on the North Korean regime to address its human rights abuses.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, United Nations, Reform, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

2995. The Case for An Atrocity Determination for North Korea

Author:: Olivia Enos
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This article argues that the United States and South Korea should seize the opportunity presented by the United Nations’ forthcoming update to its 2014 Commission of Inquiry (COI) report to re-center international attention on the dire human rights situation in North Korea. While the COI previously established that crimes against humanity were being perpetrated by the Kim regime, this article contends that atrocity crimes— including genocide—may also be ongoing, particularly against Christians and other vulnerable groups. Drawing on defector testimony, legal frameworks, and recent precedent from U.S. atrocity determinations (e.g., on Uyghurs, Rohingya, and Yazidis), the article urges Washington and Seoul to issue their own atrocity determinations to galvanize diplomatic action, promote accountability, and provide relief to survivors. It outlines how human rights violations are intertwined with the regime’s stability and weapons development, and argues that an integrated strategy linking security and human rights is essential. The article concludes with policy recommendations, including targeted sanctions, refugee protections, enhanced information access, and closure of political prison camps, offering a roadmap for a more principled and effective North Korea policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Genocide, Human Rights, Religion, Atrocities, Crimes Against Humanity, Christians, and Persecution
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

2996. China’s Violation of Sanctions Vis-à-Vis North Korea

Author:: Gordon G. Chang
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: China, at sea and at land crossings, is facilitating commerce with North Korea that clearly violates U.N. Security Council sanctions. Beijing is also interfering in sanctions-enforcement activity in its peripheral seas. Hong Kong, due to Beijing’s policies, has become a major hub of illicit activities. China had done its best to disrupt the work of the U.N.’s Panel of Experts. American sanctions policy has been ineffective, in large part because Washington policymakers do not understand China’s top-down communist system. China, despite what many think, is not deeply concerned about the growing Russia-North Korea relationship. Beijing may have even masterminded the North’s recent sales of weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine and its sending of soldiers to the war there.
Topic:: Sanctions, Law of the Sea, Maritime, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

2997. Rebuilding a Common Future: Ideas and Perspectives for a New Mediterranean

Author:: Valeria Talbot and Caterina Roggero
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Since 7 October 2023, the wider Mediterranean region has undergone profound transformations. Just when a new season of enhanced regional cooperation and stabilisation was seemingly dawning, long-standing balances have fractured. The region has become increasingly unstable, from Israel’s war on Gaza to Lebanon, from Iran to Yemen, and along the vital waters of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. In this context, economic drivers for multilateral cooperation have proven insufficient to prevent and treat ongoing conflicts. In such worrying times, a shared vision for a peaceful and prosperous Mediterranean region is more indispensable than ever. This report seeks to look beyond the immediacy of crises, adopting instead a forward-looking perspective: to take stock of the current fragmentation while imagining the contours of a possible New Mediterranean. It brings together the insights of leading experts who, through a variety of lenses, analyse the dynamics shaping the region and suggest approaches to address its most urgent challenges. At the heart of this report lies the concept of reconstruction. Yet, reconstruction is here understood in its fullest sense: not merely the physical rebuilding of what has been shattered by war, but the restoration of the fundamental principles of communal life. Peace, security, prosperity, and resilient societies: these are the indispensable pillars upon which a renewed regional order must be anchored. The ambition of this report is thus twofold: to diagnose with clarity the challenges of the present and to outline possible trajectories for the years ahead. In doing so, it offers a comprehensive framework to interpret the shifting landscape of the wider Mediterranean and to envisage the conditions under which a more stable, interconnected, and forward-looking regional order might gradually emerge.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Reconstruction, Peace, Resilience, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Mediterranean

2998. No green growth without innovation

Author:: Philippe Aghion, David Hémous, and Reinhilde Veugelers
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The ‘green growth’ debate is taking place in an oversimplified setting, largely disregarding the innovation factor. Technologies to mitigate climate change are being treated as given, or as emerging spontaneously, ignoring the fact that the portfolio of technologies available tomorrow depends on what is done today. This can easily lead to misguided preferences, either for subsidising the use of relatively inefficient technologies or for postponing action in the hope that new technologies that will reduce the cost of fighting climate change will become available. But the radical new emissions-free ‘backstop technologies’ that are needed are not yet available, or are still far from the market. To foster their emergence the ‘green innovation machine’ must be turned on. For governments to tackle climate change while maintaining reasonable growth, even in the short term, we find that: Both public intervention and private initiative are indispensable: governments must initially redirect market forces towards cleaner energy before market forces can take over; Climate change policy should combine a carbon price with high initial clean-innovation R&D subsidies: the carbon price would need to be much higher if used alone; Policymakers must act now: delaying clean innovation policies results in much higher costs; Developed countries must act as technological leaders in implementing new environmental policies and should smooth access to new clean technologies for less-developed countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Science and Technology, Economic Growth, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2999. Sudden stops in the euro area

Author:: Silvia Merler and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The single currency was expected to make the balance of payments irrelevant between the euro-area member states. This benign view has been challenged by recent developments, especially as imbalances between euro-area central banks have widened within the TARGET2 settlement system. Current-account developments can be misleading as indicators of financial account developments in countries that receive significant official support. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain experienced significant private-capital inflows from 2002 to 2007-09, followed by unambiguously massive outflows. We show that such reversals qualify as ‘sudden stops’. Euro-area sudden-stop episodes were clustered in three periods: the global financial crisis, a period following the agreement of the Greek programme and summer 2011. The timeline suggests contagion effects were present. We find evidence of substitution of the private capital flows with public components. In particular, weak banks in distressed countries took up a major share of central bank refinancing. The steady divergence of intra-Eurosystem net balances mirrors this. In the short term, TARGET2 imbalances could be addressed by tightening collateral requirements for central bank liquidity. For the longer term, the evidence that the euro area has been subject to internal balance-of-payment crises should be taken as a strong signal of weakness and as an invitation to reform its structures.
Topic:: European Union, Finance, Currency, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:: Europe

3000. Defending Europe: Transatlantic and European Security from Truman to Trump

Author:: Antonio Missiroli
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: After the four tense decades of the Cold War and a subsequent period of relative peace and stability across much of Europe, is the continent once again under threat? And are Europeans prepared to address the growing risks and strategic challenges of the second quarter of the 21st century? This ISPI Report, crafted for both expert readers and a broader audience, traces the evolution of Europe’s defence architecture along two parallel tracks: the defence of Europe, basically guaranteed by NATO and shaped through its continual adaptation; and the pursuit of a distinctly European defence identity, now mostly shaped through the European Union. It examines the intersections, overlaps, tensions, and pivotal turning points in this dual process, exploring institutional and organizational frameworks, strategies and doctrines, missions and operations as well as military and industrial capabilities. The storyline leads to 2025, a symbolic and critical juncture that may mark the end of one era and the beginning of another in which Europeans are called upon to take up full responsibility for their own security and defence. Will they rise to the challenge?
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS