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2901. Immigrants Cut Victimization Rates, Boost Crime Reporting

Author:
David Bier and Julián Salazar
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Americans are concerned about immigrants’ involvement in crime and their potential reluctance to cooperate with law enforcement. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) can help address these concerns. First, since criminals typically commit offenses near where they live and against people with similar demographics, the victimization rate can show whether immigrant communities are experiencing higher crime rates. Second, the NCVS can prove whether immigrants are less likely to report crimes to the police. The NCVS started recording citizenship status in 2017. From 2017 to 2023, immigrants were 44 percent less likely than US-born Americans to be victimized by violent criminals and were 64 percent less likely to be harmed by someone they knew. Immigrants also worked with police to solve violent crimes. Immigrant victims were 29 percent more likely than US-born victims to personally report violent crime to the police. Immigrants worked with police on 5.1 million crimes during that time. Victims’ cooperation with police led to nearly half a million criminal arrests and about 300,000 arrests of violent offenders. Because they commit fewer violent crimes, immigrants lower the violent-victimization rate in the United States. Furthermore, at least prior to the current mass deportation efforts, immigrants cooperated more with police to solve violent crimes when they occurred. Americans should trust that their immigrant neighbors help create safer communities.
Topic:
Crime, Immigration, Law Enforcement, and Victimization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2902. Reforming Federal Laws on Private Sector Labor Unions

Author:
Charles W. Baird
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In America’s labor markets, interactions between employers and employees are generally based on voluntary exchange. Employers make offers of wages and benefits, while workers offer their services at terms that are suitable to them. In the absence of force and fraud, job providers and job applicants can bargain to reach agreement in a mutually beneficial manner. In the early 20th century, however, the idea that employers had too much bargaining power relative to employees began gaining favor. Congress responded by passing a series of laws allowing the formation of worker cartels called labor unions, which replaced individual employment agreements with collective bargaining. Congress imposed the Davis–Bacon Act of 1931, the Norris–LaGuardia Act of 1932, and the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) of 1935 on the private sector workforce. The laws created rules for exclusive representation, mandatory union dues, and other labor force restrictions. These labor laws are still on the books, and they are deeply flawed. They damage the economy and violate individual rights, particularly the freedom of association. This study describes the 1930s labor laws and discusses why they should be repealed to allow greater freedom for workers and employers.
Topic:
Law, Reform, Private Sector, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2903. Aimless Rivalry The Futility of US–China Competition in the Middle East

Author:
Jon Hoffman
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Fear in Washington over China’s expanding regional presence is quickly becoming a new rationale for an expansive US foreign policy in the Middle East. But China remains an opportunistic actor in the Middle East, driven by practical needs, not by aspirations to dominate the region. Beijing lacks the ability and desire to assume a dominant position in the Middle East, and its ability to jeopardize US regional interests is limited. Centering US Middle East policy on competition with China is a recipe for disaster. It is an aimless rivalry divorced from concrete US interests. The United States has little to fear from China in the Middle East. By viewing every development in the Middle East through the framework of zero-sum competition with China, Washington is operating on faulty assumptions that will result in counterproductive policies. If navigated correctly, the return of multipolarity to the Middle East can be a net benefit for the United States, allowing Washington to disentangle itself from the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2904. Better Long-Term Care for Billions Less

Author:
Stephen A. Moses
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Medicaid is a means-tested government health and long-term care program that states operate largely with funds from the federal government. In 2025, Medicaid will spend nearly $1 trillion on behalf of 84 million enrollees, or nearly $12,000 per enrollee. Medicaid is the largest purchaser of long-term care (LTC) in the United States, covering nursing home, memory, personal, and other forms of care for qualifying persons. In 2025, Medicaid will spend roughly $80,000 per enrollee receiving Medicaid LTC subsidies, which account for more than one-third of Medicaid spending and nearly half of total LTC spending. Yet, Medicaid subsidies reduce LTC quality, strain state budgets, and contribute to a federal debt that has surged past 100 percent of US gross domestic product. Counterintuitively, Medicaid subsidizes LTC for middle-class and affluent individuals, who do not need government assistance. Middle-class people easily qualify for Medicaid under the basic financial eligibility rules. Some individuals with significant assets artificially impoverish themselves to become eligible for and receive Medicaid LTC subsidies. Eliminating Medicaid LTC subsidies for individuals who could meet or could have planned to meet their own LTC needs would improve LTC quality and reduce the burdens Medicaid imposes on taxpayers. Middle-class and affluent seniors could draw on their assets and private LTC insurance, saving Medicaid as much as $100 billion per year without impairing its ability to serve those who truly need assistance.
Topic:
Economy, Medicaid, Subsidies, Public Spending, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2905. Protection for Whom? The Origins of Protective Labor Laws for Women

Author:
Matthias Doepke, Hanno Foerster, Anne Hannusch, and Michèle Tertilt
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two centuries, the movement for women’s rights and gender equality in the United States has achieved remarkable milestones: Property and economic rights were granted to married women in the 1800s, women gained the right to vote in 1920, and sweeping civil rights reforms were implemented in the second half of the 20th century. Given these developments, progress has appeared to be steady. Yet, this process has not been a story of ever-expanding rights. We can gain insight into the complex political and economic forces that have shaped women’s labor rights by examining a striking historical reversal in the United States: the rise and fall of gender-specific, so-called protective labor laws between the late 19th and mid-20th centuries.
Topic:
Women, Employment, Economy, Protection, and Labor Law
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2906. Neoliberalism and Globalization Are Not Undermining Democracy

Author:
Stefani Branilović and Tibor Rutar
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Neoliberalism and globalization are two distinct yet interrelated processes that began to spread across the world in the 1970s and 1980s. Neoliberalism mainly aims to limit the role of the government in the economy through corporate deregulation, cuts to social benefits, privatization of public assets, and tax cuts for corporations and the investing class. It promotes the free movement of goods, services, capital, and money within countries and throughout the world. Neoliberalism advocates a free-market economy in which governments exist only to maximize the efficiency of global markets, such as by securing property rights. Meanwhile, globalization is the process that promotes the integration of markets worldwide and intensifies economic, political, social, and cultural relations. In other words, globalization creates an interconnected world and removes barriers between countries.
Topic:
Globalization, Democracy, Economy, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2907. What Are the Costs of Weakening Shareholder Primacy?

Author:
Benjamin Bennett, René M. Stulz, and Zexi Wang
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The mainstream theory of corporate governance in the United States holds that the primary responsibility of the board of directors and management is to maximize the wealth of shareholders. This is the theory of shareholder primacy. If directors and officers stray from their duty, shareholders can constrain or remove them. An alternative theory is that directors and management should consider all stakeholders, including employees, customers, and communities. This theory offers limited guidance when decisions affect stakeholders differently, so it gives much more discretion to directors and officers than the shareholder primacy theory. As a result, the stakeholder theory enables insiders to pursue their own interests and find excuses for underperformance.
Topic:
Environment, Economy, Corporate Governance, and Shareholder Value
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Nevada

2908. The Impacts of Grade Retention Policy with Minimal Retention

Author:
Jordan S. Berne, Brian A. Jacob, Christina Weiland, and Katharine O. Strunk
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Strong early literacy skills are crucial for children’s school and life success. However, the latest results from the National Assessment of Educational Progress reveal that only about a third of American fourth graders read at a proficient level, with children from historically marginalized backgrounds trailing behind their peers. As educators work to improve reading outcomes, requiring students to repeat a grade—known as retention—has become a common, though controversial, component of state policy reforms, with mixed evidence on student outcomes.
Topic:
Education, Literacy, and Reading
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2909. The Impact of Deregulation on Long-Term Acute Care Hospitals

Author:
Markus Bjoerkheim and Ali Melad
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Acentury ago, only 5 percent of Americans were 65 or older. Today, that figure is about 17 percent, and it is projected to reach 23 percent by 2050. This demographic shift poses a two-headed challenge: How can our society provide health care access to a rapidly growing population of seniors with extensive and increasingly specialized health care needs without further straining an already unsustainable federal budget? Regulations pose many barriers. For example, certificate-of-need (CON) laws restrict the entry and expansion of health care facilities in 35 states. Since the 1980s, 15 states have either completely or partially eliminated their CON laws. However, CON laws for long-term care services have largely been kept in place, making it difficult for researchers to estimate the effects of these laws on long-term health care services and access to care.
Topic:
Aging, Public Health, Hospitals, and Deregulation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2910. Drug Trafficking and the Homicide Epidemic in the Caribbean Basin

Author:
Brian Marein
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Most of the highest homicide rates in the world are found in the Caribbean basin, a region that includes Central America, the islands of the Caribbean Sea, and the northern coast of South America. This region encompasses countries with the top 6 homicide rates in the world and 23 of the top 30, according to data from 2006 to 2021. In extreme cases, such as El Salvador, annual homicide rates have at times been comparable to the carnage of civil war. European overseas territories, American unincorporated territories, and independent republics, regardless of their income levels, are experiencing violence that has reached epidemic proportions. For comparison, the average homicide rate in the United States was 5.4 per 100,000 people between 2007 and 2021, while the median rate was 20.3 among Caribbean countries and territories.
Topic:
Crime, Public Health, Drug Trafficking, and Homicide
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Puerto Rico

2911. Immigration and Inequality in the Next Generation

Author:
Mark Borgschulte, Heepyung Cho, and Darren Lubotsky
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The United States experienced historic levels of immigration during the latter part of the 20th century. A generation later, immigration remains one of the most contentious social, political, and economic issues in the United States. Scholars still disagree about the impact of immigration on the economy, inequality, and the many choices families must make. Some of the most foundational questions, such as the long-term effects of immigration on the modern economy, remain unanswered due to a lack of data. Given the declining birth rates and shrinking populations in the wealthiest parts of the world, determining the long-term effects of immigration on the receiving population will only become more important.
Topic:
Immigration, Inequality, Social Mobility, and Income
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2912. The Effects of the 1942 Japanese Exclusion on US Agriculture

Author:
Peter Zhixian Lin and Giovanni Peri
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The history of US agriculture from 1940 to the end of the 20th century is characterized by remarkable gains in productivity, increased specialization in high-value crops, and rapid technological advancements, particularly in mechanization and automation. These developments significantly reduced the need for manual labor in farming, accelerated the reallocation of workers from agriculture to industry and services, and contributed to substantial growth in income per capita.
Topic:
Agriculture, History, Economy, Displacement, and Farming
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2913. Social Security and Trends in Wealth Inequality

Author:
Sylvain Catherine, Max Miller, and Natasha Sarin
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Recent studies have shown that wealth inequality in the United States has risen in the past several decades. However, our research finds that when Social Security benefits are included, the wealth share of the top 1 percent rose from 22 percent in 1989 to slightly under 24 percent in 2019—a much smaller increase than conventional measures suggest. Wealth remains highly concentrated at the top, but not substantially more than in 1989.
Topic:
Economic Inequality, Social Security, and Wealth
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2914. Climate-Nature Synergies: From local to global

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
Climate change and biodiversity loss are distinct phenomena, yet deeply interconnected, with mutual impacts. The Amazon Basin is a powerful example of this interdependence, increasingly threatened by deforestation and the direct effects of environmental degradation. The symbiotic relationship between the climate and biodiversity crises affects not only the Amazon but also other regions of the planet, revealing that their impacts — and, above all, their solutions — are inseparable. Addressing both crises requires integrated, coordinated, and systemic measures. It is in this context that the Climate–Nature Synergies Agenda emerges — an effort to promote greater coherence between actions to confront the climate crisis and protect biodiversity, ensuring ecosystem integrity, maximizing benefits, and minimizing trade-offs. This effort is, by definition, multilevel and multidimensional, aimed at protecting people, climate, and nature across different scales — from local to global. In Climate–Nature Synergies: From Local to Global, the Igarapé Institute draws on the Brazilian context and the Amazon Basin to explore the opportunities and challenges of fostering dialogue between the climate and nature agendas. The study maps ongoing programs and policies that already demonstrate integrated approaches to climate and biodiversity, both in Brazil and in other Amazon countries. By mapping these initiatives, we highlight the importance of strengthening synergies at multiple levels — national, regional, and global. We also show how existing efforts can catalyze new technical, political, and financial partnerships, enhancing the robustness of solutions being tested in Brazil and across the Amazon Basin, while promoting the exchange of experiences among Amazonian countries and across basins, amid a growing global mobilization for the conservation of tropical forests.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Governance, Conservation, Nature, Biodiversity, and Deforestation
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

2915. A Pacific Eyes intelligence-sharing agreement

Author:
Mihai Sora
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Pacific Islands face converging transnational and geopolitical threats that exceed the capacity of any single country to address. Organised crime, illegal fishing, cyberattacks, political instability, and climate shocks are compounding and being increasingly exploited by external powers, creating systemic vulnerabilities across the region. Existing intelligence exchanges are fragmented and inadequate to meet the scale of these challenges. Current bilateral channels and ad hoc networks leave critical blind spots in regional awareness, undermining the ability of Pacific Island governments, and Australia and New Zealand as principal partners, to anticipate and respond to “strategic surprises”. A dedicated intelligence-sharing framework — a “Pacific Eyes” agreement — would transform regional security cooperation. By embedding structured, continuous intelligence collaboration between Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji, the initiative would build capacity, deepen trust, and lay the foundations for a resilient Pacific Islands security community.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Regional Security, and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:
Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, and Pacific Islands

2916. How to scale up Australia’s investment in Pacific climate adaptation

Author:
Roland Rajah, Riley Duke, and Georgia Hammersley
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Pacific Island countries are among the most climate vulnerable in the world and require substantial additional adaptation investment. It is in Australia’s interest to help meet this need. Australian investment in Pacific adaptation infrastructure is scaling up but has almost run out of concessional financing firepower. Directing more of Australia’s aid to this is smart development and smart diplomacy. Australia can fund this most effectively by reducing some of its current heavy use of technical advisers, shifting its aid to enable increased adaptation infrastructure investment, and linking this to partner country governance and reforms. Doing so could dramatically increase Australia’s adaptation infrastructure investment in the Pacific to almost half a billion dollars annually and form the basis for a major new initiative.
Topic:
Climate Change, Infrastructure, Investment, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Australia and Pacific Islands

2917. Bougainville’s future: A roadmap for development

Author:
Oliver Nobetau
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Bougainville Peace Agreement established a roadmap towards autonomy and independence. Now, a new agreement is needed to guide socio-economic development and redefine the relationship between the Autonomous Bougainville Government and the Papua New Guinea Government. The Autonomous Bougainville Government should consider establishing a special independent authority responsible for implementing development projects. Capacity-building must take place within the Bougainville Public Service. The Bougainville and PNG governments need to further prescribe the process for the transfer of powers to clarify their roles in the partnership.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Autonomy, and Independence
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific, Papua New Guinea, and Bougainville

2918. African Transitions Tracker

Author:
Bobuin Jr. Valery and Gemandze Oben
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
Since the beginning of 2025, African political discourse has increasingly centred on militarism, especially among the youth and across diverse social media platforms. The reference point of conversation has been Captain Ibrahim Traoré, President of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration, the military coalition that has been leading Burkina Faso since 2022. His popularity has risen considerably, helped by a surge in popular social media accounts reporting on numerous 'massive developmental projects' and 'rapid socio-economic transformation' under his guidance, amid other reports of the country attaining self-sufficiency and rejecting all foreign aid. However, these reports have mostly been false, and it is unclear what the motive for this recent surge is or where these reports originate. Nonetheless, be they disinformation or misinformation, they highlight the impact of social media in changing public perceptions about military governments, with many African youth hoping for the continuity of the post-2022 governance transition and the spread of militarism. These sentiments reflect the gradual decline of democracy as the favoured model of governance. In a similar vein, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger formally withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) as they officialised their confederation, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Significant developments were recently witnessed in Gabon, which ended its governance transition following recent military takeovers by holding presidential elections on 12 April 2025, ushering in a new civilian government. Transition leader General Brice Oligui Nguema secured an overwhelming victory with an absolute majority of the votes. The elections came at a time when some states under transition governments like Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali continue to postpone elections. Meanwhile, Sudan's civil war rages on amid a worsening humanitarian crisis that has seen nearly 13 million people displaced and 24.6 million people (which is almost half of the country's population) without enough food. This is the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. In neighbouring South Sudan, tensions have been rising following the arrest of Vice President Riek Machar as ordered by President Salva Kiir Mayardit. The official response was that the arrest was made to stall attacks on government infrastructure and to safeguard the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS).
Topic:
Civil War, Politics, Governance, Coup, Humanitarian Crisis, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Mali, South Sudan, Niger, Gabon, and Burkina Faso

2919. Active Public Participation: The Key to Effective Climate Action at the Municipal Level

Author:
Jasmina Brankovic
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
The people most affected by climate change are the ones who best understand the problems they face. They see solutions that experts living outside their communities might not – what will work, what will not, and why. At the municipal level, affected communities are essential to developing effective policies and actions to deal with climate impacts. Their active participation in mapping the local situation and designing, planning, implementing and monitoring the response leads to more effective climate action. This brief recommends structures and procedures that municipal councils and administrations can adopt to ensure a participatory approach to climate change responses in South Africa. They include, among others, collaborative assessments, establishment of representative advisory councils and community-based committees, participatory design and budgeting, and capacity building measures. Municipalities that ensure active participation can benefit not only from the expertise of local communities but also from their increased buy-in and support.
Topic:
Climate Change, Municipalities, and Public Participation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2920. Women, Motherhood, and Structural Transformation. Insights from Rural Latin America

Author:
Mariana Marchionni, Julián Pedrazzi, and Maria Florencia Pinto
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Structural transformation—the shift from agriculture toward industry and services—is a defining feature of economic development, with the potential to reshape gender gaps in labor markets. Yet little is known about how this process has unfolded in rural Latin America, where women face a double disadvantage stemming from both gender and rurality. In this paper, we document the evolution of rural women’s labor market outcomes in 14 Latin American countries between 2000 and 2023, drawing on harmonized household surveys that provide comparable indicators across time and space. We complement this analysis with a pseudo-event study around the birth of the first child to estimate motherhood effects, and with time-use data from Mexico to explore household mechanisms that constrain women’s labor supply. Our results show that despite important educational progress, rural women continue to lag behind rural men and urban women in employment, hours worked, and earnings. Structural transformation has contributed to declining informality and rising participation in services and formal salaried jobs, but it has not closed rural-urban or gender gaps: unpaid family labor and other precarious forms of employment remain widespread. Motherhood further exacerbates these disadvantages. While rural mothers experience smaller short-term employment drops than urban mothers and show some recovery over time, they are increasingly pushed into unpaid work and low-skilled self-employment, reinforcing long-term income gaps. Evidence from Mexico suggests that this disadvantage is not primarily driven by childcare demands—similar across rural and urban mothers— but rather by heavier burdens of household chores, home production for own consumption, and lower access to labor-saving technologies. By providing the first systematic evidence on how structural transformation interacts with motherhood in rural Latin America, our paper makes two contributions. First, it fills a gap in the literature by offering a detailed, cross-country account of rural women’s labor market outcomes over two decades in a region where evidence has been scarce. Second, it brings together insights from the literature on structural change and child penalties, showing that structural transformation alone is insufficient to generate inclusive labor market opportunities for rural women when unpaid work and caregiving responsibilities remain unequally distributed.
Topic:
Children, Inequality, Rural, Gender, Structural Transformation, and Motherhood
Political Geography:
Latin America

2921. The Potential Distributive Impact of AI-driven Labor Changes in Latin America

Author:
Matias Ciaschi, Guillermo Falcone, Santiago Garganta, Leonardo Gasparini, Octavio Bertín, and Lucía Ramírez-Leira
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices—the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the ComplementarityAdjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AIGenerated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)—to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first-order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI-related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies.
Topic:
Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
Latin America

2922. The Impact of Family Structure on Educational Attainment: An Analysis for Mexico Using EMOVI-2017

Author:
Martín Finkelstein
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Using the 2017 Mexican Social Mobility Survey (ESRU-EMOVI 2017), this study documents how family structure during upbringing is a key determinant of educational results. Individuals raised in two-parent households attain between 0.25 and 0.38 more years of education and show, on average, a two to three percentage point higher probability of completing higher education than their peers raised without one of their parents at home. An analysis of why individuals drop out of the education system indicates that differences in educational attainment may stem from a lack of opportunities. The evidence points to parental death as a significant contributor to this gap. Individuals who lose a parent during their formative years complete, on average, between 0.9 and 1 fewer years of education and are 3 to 5 percentage points less likely to complete higher education. The timing of parental death is critical: experiencing the loss of a parent during adolescence (between ages 13 and 18) is particularly detrimental to the likelihood of achieving key educational milestones.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, Household, Social Mobility, and Family Structure
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

2923. Are Elites Meritocratic and Efficiency-Seeking? Evidence from MBA Students

Author:
Marcel Preuss, Germán Reyes, Jason Somerville, and Joy Wu
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Elites disproportionately influence policymaking, yet little is known about their fairness and efficiency preferences—key determinants of support for redistributive policies. We investigate these preferences in an incentivized lab experiment with a group of future elites—Ivy League MBA students. We find that MBA students implement substantially more unequal earnings distributions than the average American, regardless of whether inequality stems from luck or merit. Their redistributive choices are also highly responsive to efficiency costs, with an elasticity an order of magnitude larger than that found in representative U.S. samples. Analyzing fairness ideals, we find that MBA students are less likely to be strict meritocrats than the broader population. These findings provide novel insights into how elites’ redistributive preferences may shape high levels of inequality in the U.S.
Topic:
Inequality, Higher Education, Students, Elites, Efficiency, Policymaking, and Meritocracy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2924. Does the Enforcement of Labor Regulations Reduce Informality? The Case of Peru

Author:
Maria Florencia Pinto, Yulia Valdivia Rivera, and Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This article examines the effects of strengthened labor regulation enforcement on labor market outcomes in Peru from 2010 to 2019. In 2013, the Peruvian government established a national labor inspection agency, which was progressively rolled out nationwide. This reform led to a substantial increase in the frequency and severity of fines imposed on formal firms. Despite this heightened enforcement, our analysis using extended two-way fixed effects models finds no significant effects on overall employment levels. Moreover, there is no evidence of changes along either the intensive margin—informal employment within formal firms—or the extensive margin—the share of employment in informal firms. These findings suggest that increased enforcement of labor regulations did not lead to measurable shifts in labor informality or employment outcomes during this period.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Regulation, Informal Economy, Inspection, Enforcement, and Fines
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

2925. Effects of Immigration on Native Learning: The Case of the Venezuelan Crisis

Author:
Nicolás Irazoque Sillerico
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper provides the first estimate of the impact of the Venezuelan exodus on Colombian students’ learning. To identify the impact, I use the reopening of the ColombianVenezuelan border in 2016 as a natural experiment and propose a differences-in-differences design. The results indicate that, on average, native high school students exposed to immigrants on the schools experience a decrease of 1.8% of a standard deviation in their academic performance and the effect is persistent for the first four years and tends to zero after that. A possible mechanism for this negative effect is that teachers allocate class time to assist lower-achieving Venezuelans. This effect becomes insignificant when the concentration of immigrants is higher. The negative effect is larger for women, for Colombians with high achievement, with highly educated mothers, and for natives who attend schools with high average scores and a high concentration of educated mothers.
Topic:
Education, Immigration, Children, and Peer Effects
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

2926. Generative AI in Higher Education: Evidence from an Elite College

Author:
Zara Contractor and Germán Reyes
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Generative AI is transforming higher education, yet systematic evidence on student adoption remains limited. Using novel survey data from a selective U.S. college, we document over 80 percent of students using AI academically within two years of ChatGPT’s release. Adoption varies across disciplines, demographics, and achievement levels, highlighting AI’s potential to reshape educational inequalities. Students predominantly use AI for augmenting learning (e.g., explanations, feedback), but also to automate tasks (e.g., essay generation). Positive perceptions of AI’s educational benefits strongly predict adoption. Institutional policies can influence usage patterns but risk creating unintended disparate impacts across student groups due to uneven compliance.
Topic:
Artificial Intelligence, Higher Education, Students, Elites, and ChatGPT
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2927. The Gendered Impact of Social Norms on Financial Access and Capital Misallocation

Author:
Arti Grover and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper provides evidence on the nature of financial constraints faced by women entrepreneurs, especially in contexts of stringent social norms. Using micro-data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for 61 countries, the analysis shows that formal firms managed by women do not face credit constraints on the extensive margin. They are equally likely to apply for credit as their male counterparts and experience lower rates of credit rejection, with a higher likelihood of opening credit lines. However, on the intensive margin, firms managed by women receive lower credit amounts, indicating signs of credit constraints. This disparity in access to credit cannot be explained by gender differences in risk profiles, profitability, or productivity. However, firms managed by women have lower sales per worker, suggesting challenges in accessing product and labor markets. The paper finds suggestive evidence of capital misallocation based on gender, particularly in countries with more restrictive gender and cultural norms. Firms managed by women demonstrate a 15 percent higher average return on capital compared to firms managed by men, indicating the potential benefits of increased access to credit for women-led businesses. These findings emphasize the importance of addressing gender-specific constraints to accessing finance and promoting gender-inclusive policies to enhance firm growth and reduce capital misallocation.
Topic:
Credit, Gender, Firms, Social Norms, and Capital Misallocation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2928. Wage Floors Set in Collective Bargaining: Evidence on Wages and Employment in Argentina

Author:
Lucía Ramírez Leira, Carlo Lombardo, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
In Argentina, the national minimum wage (NMW) coexists with sectoral wage floors (WF) established through collective bargaining agreements (CBA). These WFs exceed the NMW for most registered workers, rendering the minimum wage largely ineffective. Using novel data on union-negotiated wages combined with administrative records, this paper analyzes the impact of WFs set in CBAs on employment, wages, and wage inequality among formal workers. The analysis is conducted at both the industry and individual levels, utilizing a fixed-effects model by year and sector and a linear probability model based on individual worker trajectories. Results indicate that CBAs reduce overall wage inequality by decreasing inequality at the upper end of the distribution without affecting the lower end. No significant employment effects are found, except for a negative impact in sectors with a higher proportion of small firms (MSMEs). However, at the worker level, CBAs reduce the probability of remaining employed for workers near the wage floors, with more negative effects observed in MSMEs. Finally, CBAs’ positive effect on wage increases and negative effects on employment are more pronounced in unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.
Topic:
Employment, Inequality, Unions, Minimum Wage, and Collective Bargaining
Political Geography:
South Asia and Argentina

2929. Characterizing Green and Carbonintensive Employment in India

Author:
Andres Ham, Emmanuel Vazquez, and Monica Yanez-Pagans
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Transitioning toward sustainable development practices is expected to result in broad changes to economic activity, which will subsequently impact labor markets and change the demand for skills. India established the Skill Council for Green Jobs to identify green jobs and define the skills required for these occupations. This paper applies the Skill Council for Green Jobs definition of green jobs and an international definition of carbon-intensive jobs to data from the 2019-20 Periodic Labour Force Survey to estimate the size of green and carbon-intensive employment, document patterns between and within occupations, characterize workers by attributes and skills, and study wage differentials. The results highlight the importance of monitoring green and carbonintensive jobs with robust labor market monitoring systems to guide decisions on the sustainability transition and suggest key aspects to consider when investing in green skills and the potential distributive consequences of sustainability policies on the population.
Topic:
Climate Change, Employment, Sustainability, Labor Market, Skills, Green Jobs, and Carbon-Intensive Jobs
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

2930. Uganda's Mining Legal Regime: Addressing Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs), Risks and Revenue Loss in the Mineral Supply Chain

Author:
Onesmus Mugyenyi, Paul Twebaze, Phoebe Atukunda, Eugene Ssemakula, Peter Watua, and Oscord Mark Otile
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
Uganda's rich mineral endowment holds immense potential for economic development. However, illicit financial flows (IFFs) risks threaten to undermine this potential by diverting revenue away from critical national priorities. IFFs can occur at various stages of the mineral supply chain, from licensing and exploration to production and exportation. These illicit flows not only deprive the government of the much-needed domestic revenue but also hinder transparency and accountability within the sector. While the mining sector has in the past contributed significantly to Uganda’s economy reaching a peak of up to 30% of export revenue in the 1950S and 1960; the contribution has in the last few years declined to 2.2% of the country's GDP (Nyakabwa & Wepukhulu, 2023). This decline is partly attributed to illicit financial flows. As domestic revenue mobilization becomes increasingly important for Uganda’s long-term development, curbing illicit financial flows in the mining sector remains central to realising this goal. This briefing paper examines Uganda's current mining legal regime and its effectiveness in addressing IFFs risks along the mineral supply chain. It also identifies key, strengths, and gaps in the existing mining legalregime, and proposes recommendations for strengthening the legal and regulatory safeguards. By plugging these leaks in the system, Uganda’s mineral wealth will translate into tangible benefits for its citizens thus achieving economic development.
Topic:
Mining, Risk, Supply Chains, Minerals, Illicit Financial Flows, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

2931. Two decades of Chinese industry subsidies

Author:
Shuhui Xiang, Xinran Yin, and Yuan Zi
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
This paper constructs a new database based on China's WTO subsidy notifications (2001–2022) and provides the first systematic overview of China's industrial subsidies over the past two decades. Five findings emerge. First, subsidies expanded rapidly, but direct fiscal support stabilized around 0.8 percent of GDP after 2008. Second, China has employed more subsidies than its income level would suggest, with striking policy persistence. Third, subsidies and tax incentives for FDI have declined, while those targeting specific industries and promoting innovation have grown. Fourth, wealthier and more trade-oriented provinces provide more local subsidies. Finally, subsidies are concentrated in a few sectors, and measures based on counts versus values reveal different patterns. These patterns reveal how China's subsidy strategy has evolved, offering insights to state-led development in the 21st century.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Innovation, WTO, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2932. Defending before the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda: An Interview with Philippe Larochelle

Author:
Philippe Larochelle
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
Philippe Larochelle, widely regarded as one of the leading lawyers in international criminal defense, has built his career representing clients in some of the most complex and high-profile international cases. The ability to navigate political and procedural challenges of international law quickly positioned him as a key figure in the international defense field. His commitment to due process, fairness, and the protection of fundamental legal rights, even in cases where public sentiment strongly favored conviction, has built his reputation across multiple international tribunals, including the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR), International Criminal Court (ICC), and the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. This blog explores the challenges and lessons that emerged from his particular set of cases before the ICTR. Through Larochelle’s setbacks and triumphs within the world’s second international tribunal, readers get a glimpse into the case preparation and trial process for these complex cases, and better understand the way in which these tribunals shape the legacies of conflict. Through Larochelle’s stories one thing becomes clear: uncovering the truth can only be accomplished through objective institutions, counsel, and judges; strong standards of evidence and procedure; expeditious trials; and stronger mechanisms to assess victims and witnesses.
Topic:
Genocide, International Law, Interview, and International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR)
Political Geography:
Rwanda and Global Focus

2933. Defending Before the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia: An Interview with Colleen Rohan

Author:
Colleen Rohan, Cailan Cumming, Kate Gibson, and Paul R. Williams
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This blog presents the experiences and perspectives of Colleen Rohan, a prominent defense lawyer whose decades of defense practice encompass some of the toughest cases in U.S. domestic criminal law as well as landmark cases before the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Through her personal journey in international criminal law, Rohan offers a singular perspective on the evolution of international defense, including the creation of the Association of Defence Counsel (ADC), the practical and ethical questions of representing persons accused of serious international crimes, and the procedural and institutional obstacles that shaped the early operations of the ICTY. Drawing upon Rohan’s experiences, readers gain insight into the daily realities of defense work, from navigating disclosure battles to fostering collegiality in a multicultural defense community, to the ways in which defense counsel must adapt to evolving legal systems. Her experiences illuminate both the successes and limitations of the ICTY, the development of substantive international criminal law, and the ongoing need for recognition, resources, and respect for defense practitioners in international tribunals.
Topic:
International Law, International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), and Legal Defense
Political Geography:
Yugoslavia and Global Focus

2934. The Inception of International Defense: An Interview with Dr. Mark S. Ellis

Author:
Mark S. Ellis, Emma Bakkum, and Paul Williams
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This blog delves into the origins and evolution of the work of defense counsel before international criminal tribunals. It presents the reflections of Dr. Mark Ellis, based on his extensive experience providing assistance to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), his active involvement in the Saddam Hussein trial in Iraq, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC), and the International Criminal Court (ICC), and his service as Executive Director of the International Bar Association (IBA). Through the examination of key defense developments, including the financial remuneration of defense counsel, assigning and selecting defense counsel, defense counsel ethics, and the role of bar associations, this blog traces the evolution of the defense counsel’s role in international criminal law, showcasing how defense contributions have shaped the fabric of international justice. Starting at the formative days of defense at the ICTY, including in the landmark Tadić case, the blog presents first-hand accounts of the key challenges and milestones faced by defense counsel appearing before the ICTY and beyond, illuminating key developments of the defense at international criminal tribunals, and laying the foundation for understanding the broader international justice system.
Topic:
International Law, Interview, International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), and International Criminal Law (ICL)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2935. Performing Real Estate Value: The Elbtower and the Politics of the Future

Author:
Dasha Kuletskaya
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
What is the source of real estate value? In this paper, I trace the development of the Elbtower skyscraper in Hamburg – from its origins in the 1997 architectural vision for HafenCity to the construction halt following the 2023 insolvency of the Signa Group. Through an analysis of the “political dramaturgy” (Oomen, Hoffman, and Hajer 2022) behind the development, I argue that real estate value is not an inherent metric rooted in objective material characteristics, but is instead “performed” (Callon 1998) through the strategic management of stakeholders’ “imagined futures” (Beckert 2016). In this process, the symbolic power of iconic architecture plays a crucial role, enabling developers to bypass conventional valuation methods based on market comparison and claim monopoly on the “rent of form” (Arantes 2019). In the paper, I show that imaginaries of urban future that are produced by architects and planners function as market devices – discursive assemblages mobilized by powerful stakeholders to socially construct real estate value. In conclusion, I argue that the performance of real estate value is ultimately a political project, in which state actors play a central role.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Architecture, and Real Estate
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2936. The Essential Contributions of Support Staff in International Defense: An Interview with Cécile Lecolle

Author:
Cécile Lecolle, Cailan Cumming, Kate Gibson, and Paul R. Williams
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
Justice in international criminal law is not solely determined by the strength of arguments or the weight of evidence—it is also shaped by those working behind the scenes. Support staff, often unseen and underappreciated, play a decisive role in the defense of the accused. Through the work of Cécile Lecolle, an experienced case manager and legal assistant, this blog explores the reality of defense support work in some of the most high-profile international criminal cases. Lecolle’s career demonstrates not only the immense responsibilities carried by support staff but also the broader inequities in international justice, including resource imbalances between the prosecution and defense, failures in disclosing exculpatory evidence, and the persistent stigma surrounding defense work.
Topic:
International Law, Interview, Staffers, and Legal Defense
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2937. Defining the Practice of International Criminal Defense: An Interview with Peter Haynes KC

Author:
Peter Haynes
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This blog introduces the topic of defense of the accused before international criminal courts and tribunals. By drawing upon Peter Haynes KC’s extensive experience at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), and the International Criminal Court (ICC), it introduces several key themes to defense, including the structure of international defense teams, how to effectively defend the accused before international criminal tribunals, differences between domestic and international defense practices, and the future outlook for international criminal defense lawyers. Through the striking first-hand achievements of Peter Haynes in defending accused and managing defense teams at international criminal courts, this blog realistically positions international defense work within the international criminal law project and articulates standards that need to be met in order to effectively defend accused before international criminal courts and tribunals.
Topic:
International Law, International Criminal Court (ICC), International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), and International Criminal Law (ICL)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2938. The Slippery Slope of Using Chemical Weapons in Sudan

Author:
David M. Crane
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
The use of gas in a conflict is prohibited under international law and has been for well over a century. Its use is a war crime, plain and simple. Full stop. The use of chemicals against a belligerent in an armed conflict is rare but not unheard of. It’s been used in the Iraq/Iran war in the 1980s, and the Assad regime in Syria dabbled in its use in the early 21st century. There is also evidence of the use of chemicals by the Russian Federation in Ukraine. The recent accusations surrounding the alleged use of chlorine gas by the Sudanese army in its conflict with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are troubling and must not be ignored. On May 22, 2025, the United States accused the Sudanese military of using chemical weapons. Although they presented no evidence to back their claims, the implications are grave. International law strictly prohibits the use of chemical weapons, and chlorine gas is considered a violation under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which Sudan is a signatory. It's very concerning that chlorine, a substance commonly used in various industries, is reportedly being weaponized. The video evidence documented by the FRANCE 24 Observers team in September 2024, showing barrels dropping from the sky, is particularly alarming. If these claims are substantiated, they mark a dangerous escalation—not just for Sudan but for the principles of international law as a whole. This pattern—accusations followed by denials from military leaders—is reminiscent of other conflict zones where human rights are disregarded. The Sudanese military’s immediate dismissal of these allegations further obscures the truth and undermines the credibility of international monitoring. The historical context reminds us that the failure to hold violators accountable leads to a dangerous normalization of brutality in warfare. As I’ve previously remarked, “When we allow even the smallest infractions of international law to go unaddressed, we set a precedent that invites further violations.”
Topic:
International Law, Chemical Weapons, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

2939. The Dangers of Selective State Support for International Tribunals: An Interview with Kate Gibson

Author:
Kate Gibson, Cailan Cumming, and Paul R. Williams
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This blog presents the reflections of defense lawyer Kate Gibson, who has appeared as counsel in some of the most significant cases in international criminal law. Drawing on her extensive experience before domestic, international, and hybrid tribunals, this blog examines the critical role states play in supporting international courts and how selective support can affect investigations, security, the rights of the accused, and the overall accountability process. Gibson offers practical recommendations for strengthening state engagement and shares her perspective on the institutional reforms needed to uphold fair trial guarantees in international courts. From the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR), International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), the Special Court for Sierra Leone (SCSL), and the International Criminal Court (ICC), Gibson’s work reveals both the promise and the deep flaws of the international criminal justice project, shedding light on some of the most overlooked aspects of the justice process.
Topic:
International Law, State, Interview, International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), and International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2940. Defending before the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia: An Interview with Anta Guissé

Author:
Anta Guissé
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
In this blog, defense lawyer Anta Guissé reflects on the unique dynamics of hybrid tribunals, drawing from her extensive experience at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC). As a defense lawyer for Khieu Samphan, a former high-ranking leader of the Khmer Rouge regime, Guissé discusses the historical narratives and local context that influenced her case, as well as the advantages of conducting tribunals in situ. Her first-hand experiences highlight how the symbolic nature of the ECCC trials, the immense pressure to secure convictions, and inconsistencies in applying modes of liability can undermine the foundational principles of law and justice. Guissé is a strong advocate for the integrity of the legal process and judicial discussion, and for uncovering the judicial truth and recognizing victims regardless of the trial’s outcome. Rather than building international criminal law around the desire to convict, Guissé challenges us to let the fundamentals of the rule of law work, regardless of public opinion, moral pressure, or political interference.
Topic:
International Law, Public Opinion, Courts, Interview, and Tribunal
Political Geography:
Cambodia and Southeast Asia

2941. Elections in Ukraine: Between Peace Demands and Democratic Integrity

Author:
Paul R. Williams and Sindija Beta
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
As Ukraine navigates the most consequential peace negotiations in its modern history, the question of elections has again resurfaced during the most recent peace agreement drafts. The recently publicized 28-point plan, allegedly drafted by US and Russian officials, places elections soon after the cessation of hostilities as a requirement of any settlement. More recently, US President Trump accused Zelenskyy of prolonging the war to avoid holding elections, in response to which President Zelenskyy announced his readiness to hold elections even during martial law should security be ensured. Nonetheless, the unavoidable questions and issues that arise when elections in Ukraine are discussed are numerous. Martial law remains in place, during which elections are prohibited, millions of citizens are displaced internally or abroad, and large parts of the country remain under occupation. In this context, elections require more thinking than an arbitrary timeline in a poorly thought-through plan or baseless accusations of President Zelenskyy clinging to power. The challenge is to design an electoral process that is credible, inclusive, and secure, while resisting external pressure to rush toward a vote that could fracture Ukraine's hard-fought legitimacy. Public debate reflects this tension. Civil society organizations such as Opora have outlined detailed roadmaps for postwar elections, emphasizing legal reform, diaspora inclusion, and international monitoring. Other institutions have likewise highlighted the risks of conducting elections during active armed conflict, noting that fairness and legitimacy are often compromised when security and freedoms are restricted.
Topic:
Civil Society, Elections, Democracy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

2942. Forget the Debate on Peace Versus Justice. Ukraine Has Set the Stage for Peace With Justice!

Author:
Paul R. Williams, Beth Van Schaack, David Crane, and Sindija Beta
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
Recent efforts to reach a ceasefire and potential peace arrangement to end Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine have again brought to the fore the tension between achieving peace and delivering justice in the wake of atrocities. For much of the twentieth century, those negotiating peace deals were either silent about the imperative of justice or negotiated it away. Indeed, many peace agreements and arrangements routinely incorporated blanket amnesties, trading accountability for the promise of stability and calm. The Évian Accords in Algeria, the National Reconciliation Law in Guatemala, the Lomé Peace Accord in Sierra Leone, and the “Due Obedience” and “Full Stop” laws in Argentina all exemplified this approach. These amnesties may have encouraged combatants to lay down their arms and helped end the fighting, but they left societies fractured, victims silenced, and perpetrators free to return to positions of power. Ultimately, many of these amnesties did not hold as national and international courts declared them unconstitutional and/or inconsistent with the nation’s human rights obligations. Argentina, for example, has prosecuted hundreds of individuals who stood accused of committing grave crimes during the country’s “dirty war.” The experience of Sierra Leone and Cambodia demonstrates that even negotiated amnesties do not shield perpetrators from subsequent international justice mechanisms; nor do they override the treaty-based legal obligations of states to prosecute atrocity crimes.
Topic:
International Law, Peace, Justice, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2943. International Humanitarian Law in Focus: Russia’s Violations and Ukraine’s Legitimate Use of Force against Energy Targets

Author:
Łukasz Adamski, Kateryna Kyrychenko, Sindija Beta, and Gregory P. Noone
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
In the war waged by the Russian state against Ukraine, energy has become both a weapon and a battlefield. Russia continues its relentless bombardment of Ukraine’s power plants, gas facilities, and heating systems — a campaign that leaves millions facing blackouts and cold as another winter approaches. In contrast, Ukrainian drones strike deep into Russian territory, targeting refineries and chemical facilities that sustain the Kremlin’s war machine. To the casual observer, these might appear as parallel actions: each side hitting the other’s energy network to weaken its capacity and morale. Yet legally, and morally, they are quite distinct. International humanitarian law draws clear distinctions between lawful military targets and unlawful attacks on civilian infrastructure. Understanding those distinctions is not an exercise in legal pedantry; it is essential for accountability, humanitarian protection, and how the world understands the evolving nature of this war. Specifically, Russia’s systematic attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amount to war crimes under international law. Ukraine’s strikes, by contrast, are directed at military-relevant facilities used for generating revenue for Russia’s war machine, while seeking to limit the civilian impact. This legal and moral asymmetry is not a matter of moral equivalency, but rather it is a matter of law, and it must shape how we understand and respond to this war.
Topic:
International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Armed Conflict, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2944. Roundtable Blog: Peace Without Possession—Preserving Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity in Negotiations

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
In the context of ongoing hostilities, Ukraine faces a critical dilemma: how to enter into peace negotiations while lacking control over parts of its territory and with the understanding that negotiating the return of the territory is unlikely. The stakes are high. Any misstep could weaken Ukraine’s sovereignty claims, embolden future aggression, or fracture international consensus. With these risks in mind, the Public International Law & Policy Group’s Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group convened a roundtable to examine the legal, political, and strategic dimensions of preserving territorial integrity in the absence of de facto control. Participants were asked to consider six interrelated questions: what is the legal basis for assessing territorial questions in Ukraine; how Ukraine can best negotiate without possession; what legal instruments preserve territorial claims over time; how EU and NATO pathways intersect with unresolved occupation; how to navigate dueling constitutional claims; and whether strategic ambiguity risks weakening Ukraine’s legal position. The discussion drew on comparative precedents, international law, and realpolitik assessments of the current diplomatic landscape. The purpose of this public-facing Roundtable Blog is threefold: to inform Ukrainian policymakers and Peace Formula stakeholders of the legal and strategic variables shaping territorial negotiations; to connect Ukraine-focused expertise with broader international practice; and to provide analytically grounded perspectives that can guide the development of durable, sovereignty-preserving peace frameworks.
Topic:
International Law, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Territorial Integrity
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2945. Nuclear Testing: An Inflection Point or Another Step Toward Confrontation?

Author:
Zorica Maric Djordjevic
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
By late October 2025, two troubling signals came from the world’s most powerful military nations — Russia and the United States. The first move came from Moscow. President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia had completed tests of two nuclear-powered delivery systems. These were Burevestnik, a long-range cruise missile, and Poseidon, an underwater torpedo designed to devastate coastal regions with a radioactive surge. Both, reportedly, could evade existing missile defenses, creating a direct challenge to U.S. plans to build an expanded “Golden Dome.” Russian officials later clarified that both tests were non-nuclear, involving delivery systems rather than atomic warheads. Within days, President Trump declared that the United States would keep pace with China and Russia and instructed the Department of War to resume nuclear-weapons testing. Officials later noted that such tests might involve system components rather than full detonations. Soon afterward, Washington unveiled its next-generation stealth nuclear cruise missile, the AGM-181 LRSO, signaling that the U.S. would match or outpace its rivals. Putin responded by ordering the preparation of proposals for Russian nuclear testing should Washington proceed. “If the U.S. conducts such tests,” he said, “Russia must also take appropriate retaliatory steps.”
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

2946. Stolen Childhoods: Russia’s Abduction of Ukrainian Children and the Case for Genocide

Author:
Gregory P. Noone, Kateryna Kyrychenko, Henry T. Scott, Andrea Eggenstein, Connor W. Reese, and Rafael Mozo Sierra
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian state has forcibly taken thousands of Ukrainian children — orphans, those separated from parents during war, and children under state care — and relocated them to Russia. These children are not simply being “evacuated” for their safety. They are in fact being subjected to a systematic campaign of identity erasure, Russian adoption, and indoctrination. This is obviously a war crime, and in all likelihood also meets the legal definition of genocide. This blog explores the legal, moral, and human dimensions of Russia’s program of abducting Ukrainian children. Drawing on international law, tribunal precedent, and a growing body of evidence, we examine why the forced transfer and “Russification” of these children constitutes not only a violation of the Geneva Conventions — but potentially the gravest crime under international law: genocide.
Topic:
Genocide, International Law, Children, Abductions, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2947. Negotiating Peace Under Fire: How Dayton Informs Ukraine’s Path to a Durable Settlement

Author:
Paul R. Williams
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
The Dayton Peace Agreement of 1995 is often celebrated as a diplomatic breakthrough. It ended nearly four years of brutal conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina, halting atrocities and stabilizing the Balkans. Yet Dayton’s compromises were not neutral; they reflected the urgency of stopping violence rather than building a durable state. The agreement froze wartime territorial divisions, entrenched ethnic power-sharing, and created a constitutional framework that was more a ceasefire mechanism than a blueprint for governance. Bosnia survived, but its institutions remained fragile, dependent on international oversight, and prone to paralysis. The lesson for Ukraine is sobering: compromise can end war, but if it undermines sovereignty or institutional coherence, it risks producing a peace too brittle to endure.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Negotiation, Russia-Ukraine War, and Territorial Integrity
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2948. Roundtable Blog: “One Year Since Ukraine’s Ratification of the Rome Statute”

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
On 25 October 2024, Ukraine deposited its instrument of ratification of the Rome Statute, and on 1 January 2025, the Statute officially entered into force for Ukraine. This moment marked more than the conclusion of a decades-long legal journey — it represented Ukraine’s determination to enshrine accountability within its national identity even as it continues to defend itself against Russia’s war of aggression. The decision to join the International Criminal Court (ICC) amid active conflict underscored a powerful principle: that justice is not a luxury of peace, but a condition for achieving it. In this roundtable blog, PILPG’s Peace Fellows and experts reflect on Ukraine’s first year as a State Party to the ICC through five guiding questions — exploring the most significant impacts of ratification, its influence on Ukraine’s domestic justice system, the evolving cooperation with the ICC, the broader implications for global accountability, and the strategic priorities that lie ahead.
Topic:
Accountability, International Criminal Court (ICC), Rome Statute, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2949. “Security Guarantees” for Ukraine: Breathing Life into a Buzzword

Author:
Paula C. Kates, Sindija Beta, and Paul R. Williams
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
The purpose of this blog is to explain what is meant by the now frequently used term “security guarantees” in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Following President Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15, 2025, and his subsequent meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and several European leaders in Washington, D.C., on August 18, 2025, a renewed focus has emerged on the question of “security guarantees” for Ukraine. The phrase “security guarantees” is an often used buzzword, which few diplomats, commentators and even experts seem to understand. This blog explores the multiple dimensions of the term “security guarantees,” including: What does the term “security guarantees” traditionally mean? What constitutes an Article 5-like guarantee? Which states or organizations might implement such guarantees? Does an Article 5-like guarantee require the deployment of combat troops on the ground in Ukraine? What options exist for configuring combat forces—or other types of security forces—on Ukrainian territory? How might these forces operate in the absence of an Article 5-like commitment? And finally, what binding obligations or discretionary measures might apply to—or be available to—the United States?”
Topic:
Security, Negotiation, Russia-Ukraine War, and Security Guarantees
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

2950. Roundtable Blog: Toward Enforceable Security Guarantees

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
In recent months, the question of credible and enforceable security guarantees for Ukraine has become central to its long-term defense and peace architecture. International partners have signaled new commitments—most notably through the Paris declaration of twenty-six states willing to support Ukraine’s security—but the substance and structure of these guarantees remain contested. The strategic landscape is shifting rapidly, and with NATO membership off the table for now, Ukraine and its allies must explore alternative legal and political frameworks capable of deterring further aggression and sustaining peace. For this Roundtable Blog, we asked the Public International Law & Policy Group’s Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group to answer a set of four questions focused on different aspects of the security guarantee debate. Contributors were asked to assess elements of substantive and symbolic security guarantees; alternatives to NATO membership for Ukraine; legal and political frameworks for deploying multinational forces to Ukraine; and the feasibility of providing Ukraine with security guarantees absent Russia’s consent. The purpose of this public-facing Roundtable Blog is threefold: to inform Ukrainian policymakers and Peace Formula stakeholders of the legal and strategic variables shaping the security guarantee debate; to connect Ukraine-focused expertise with broader international practice; and to provide analytically grounded perspectives that can guide the development of credible, enforceable guarantees in the months ahead.
Topic:
Security, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Security Guarantees
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine