Publication Year: within 1 Year - CIAO Search Results

201. Evaluation of Feminist Philosophy of Begum Rokeya Shakawat Hussain with Other Scholars in the Pre-and Post-Colonial Era

Author:: Md. Habibur Rahman and Md. Aktarul Islam
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Mrs. S.R. Hussain, unanimously well-known as Begum Rokeya Shakawat Hussain or simply Begum Rokeya, was a Bengali feminist writer, and social activist who advocated throughout her lifetime for women’s education and socio-economic emancipation. Her roles in the awakening of the Bengali women of Bangladesh and India will always be remembered with reverence and inspired thousands to break the shackles of the vicious circle of backwardness and superstitions. The main objective of this research paper is to evaluate the feminist philosophy of Rokeya with that of other change makers in the pre-and post-colonial era. Furthermore, it has focused on Rokeya’s feminist philosophy and the contributions of other celebrated feminist activists around the world. This research has followed the qualitative approach by reviewing secondary data and information. The findings of this research have shown that some women who initiated various reformation movements in Bengal were vocal in bringing about socio-economic changes and fought against injustice and discrimination alongside their male counterparts. The global feminist and Islamic divine books have also played a vital role for women’s rights and empowerment. The philosophy and contributions of Begum Rokeya’s work are the major catalysts for eliminating gender disparity and balanced development in society.
Topic:: Human Rights, Women, Philosophy, Feminism, Post-Colonial, and Begum Rokeya
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

202. India's Neighbourhood PolicyA Collaborative Approach or a Bid for Dominance

Author:: Rabbani Attar and Anusha Attar
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The turmoil in India's neighbouring countries can largely be attributed to the framework of India's neighbourhood policy: its underlying principles, strategy, and implementation. The principles refer to the norms and practices guiding the policy; the strategy involves how priorities are structured; and the implementation pertains to the methods of execution. These norms shape the actions taken to achieve set objectives, while priorities dictate the order and significance assigned to those objectives. The modes represent the pathways through which the policy is carried out. This paper critically examines the principles, priorities, and methods of India's policy towards its neighbors, suggesting that India seeks to establish dominance and often presents its national interests as those of the entire region.
Topic:: Hegemony, Strategic Interests, Regional Politics, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

203. Commentary: Democracy, Democratization, Institutions, and Inequality: Nobel-Winning Insights from Daron Acemoglu and His Collaborators

Author:: Ali Resul Usul
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This paper explores the seminal contributions of Daron Acemoglu and his collaborators to the understanding of democracy, democratization, institutions, and inequality, as recognized by the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. It delves into the stability and erosion of democratic institutions, emphasizing the interplay between historical legacies, class structures, and strategic political interactions. The analysis synthesizes insights from rational choice theory, historical institutionalism, and comparative political economy, highlighting the critical role of both formal and informal institutions in shaping political outcomes. Key concepts such as critical junctures, path dependence, and the dynamic balance between state capacity and societal power— termed the “Red Queen effect”—are examined to explain the persistence and transformation of political regimes. The paper also addresses the implications of economic inequality for democratic stability and the continuous process of adaptation required to maintain inclusive institutions. By integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence, this work provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the complex dynamics of democratization and offers policy recommendations for strengthening democratic resilience in the face of contemporary challenges.
Topic:: Democratization, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Path Dependence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

204. Forever the Frenemies of the Middle East? Türkiye’s Regional Relations with Iran, 2002 to 2023

Author:: Cem Savaş
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article investigates the puzzle of Türkiye’s fluctuating relations with Iran since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. Contrary to many scholars’ expectations, the AKP government’s relations with Iran have competition and rivalry rather than just cooperation. Having improved significantly in the early 2000s, the relations became tense following the Arab uprisings and Syria’s civil war. However, the relations between the two countries have included both cooperative and conflictual elements since 2016. This research argues that the most relevant level for analyzing Türkiye’s fluctuating foreign policy strategies toward Iran between 2002 and 2023 is regional. Using the regionalist approaches of Buzan and Wæver’s Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and Lake and Morgan’s theory of regional orders, the article examines how the “local security externalities” of the Middle Eastern regional security complex (RSC) affect Türkiye-Iran regional relations by particularly focusing on speech acts of Turkish high-level foreign policy actors. By acknowledging the multi-layered nature of Middle Eastern politics, this study also considers the role of extra-regional actors and non-state armed groups in Turkish foreign policy attitudes toward Iran.
Topic:: International Relations, AKP, Regional Security, Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

205. The Logic of Foreign Policy: An Explanatory Model for Strategic Volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy Under the AKP Rule

Author:: Erol Kurubaş
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The AKP government in Türkiye has been following a foreign policy based on values and discourses rather than power and interests. However, despite the lack of a radical change in international conditions, contrasting approaches in terms of the nature of foreign policy, strategic orientation, foreign relations, and international image have been adopted by the same government over short intervals of time. While a first period was marked by a value-laden transformation, a second was marked by righteous and romantic discourse and actions pointing to more value-based mentality. In a third period, foreign policy was guided by a logic based on a populist and opportunist approach. This paper calls each of these bases that shape foreign policy a different logic of foreign policy. Accordingly, while the logic of the first period was constructed in “the modified base logic” and led to the quest for strategic depth in foreign policy, the logic of the second became “righteous-romantic” and resulted in “strategic instability”. The logic of third, on the other hand, was shaped by its reactive form and led to “strategic uncertainty”. In this way, the paper argues that the strategic volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy can be explained by the elements that constitute the logic of foreign policy and the interactions among them.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, AKP, and Volatility
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

206. Macroeconomic and distributional effects of fiscal consolidation measures in EU countries

Author:: Philipp Heimberger and Anna Matzner
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: We provide new evidence on the effects of fiscal consolidation measures on output, unemployment, income inequality and consumer price inflation. To identify causal impacts, we use a narrative-based instrumental variable strategy drawing on historical records of exogenous fiscal changes motivated by deficit reduction, covering 12 EU countries from 1980 to 2020. Our results for the short to medium run show that fiscal consolidations (a) lower real output; (b) raise the unemployment rate; (c) increase income inequality; and d) reduce consumer price inflation. Contractionary macroeconomic effects are stronger during recessions than during non-recession periods.
Topic:: European Union, Income Inequality, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Austerity, Unemployment, and Fiscal Consolidation
Political Geography:: Europe

207. Pugwash workshop on Nordic Security: Deterrence and Risk Reduction

Author:: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:: With much of the arms control architecture dismantled in recent years, there is an urgent need to assess common interests, redefine security priorities, and identify workable approaches to reduce nuclear dangers between NATO and Russia. In particular, the Arctic and Baltic sub-regions have become unformed strategic spaces, creating novel escalation risks. This project will map the impact of NATO membership on the security policy of Nordic states on issues such as Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA), military readiness for article 5 commitments, and examine prospects for nuclear risk reduction and arms control initiatives.
Topic:: Deterrence, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Risk, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Nordic Nations, Russia, and Europe

208. Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026

Author:: Jessica Anania, Vicka Heidt, Anna Tuohey, and Jessica M. Smith
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: Entering 2026, the global security landscape is defined by record-high levels of armed conflict, democratic backsliding, geopolitical fragmentation, and an accelerating climate crisis—dynamics unfolding alongside unprecedented cuts to foreign aid and development assistance. These converging pressures are reshaping conflict environments in ways that disproportionately endanger women and girls while eroding the systems meant to protect them, even as women remain central actors in humanitarian response, peacebuilding, and civic resistance. Women, Peace and Security: Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026 integrates gender-responsive analysis into conflict forecasting by drawing on insights from the Women, Peace and Security Conflict Tracker and expert consultations. This report identifies three cross-cutting trends expected to shape conflict dynamics in the year ahead: the increasing weaponization of hunger as a tactic of conquest and control, with devastating gendered consequences; political transitions that intensify repression, violence, and women’s exclusion at critical decision-making moments; and worsening climate shocks that compound displacement, insecurity, and economic loss for women and girls. The report also profiles 10 settings—Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran, Israel & Palestine, Mali, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela—where these dynamics are likely to be especially acute in 2026. By centering gendered risks as early warning indicators of instability, this report addresses a critical gap in mainstream conflict analysis and offers policymakers, donors, multilateral institutions, and civil society leaders a more inclusive framework for anticipating crises, protecting civilians, and advancing more durable and inclusive peace and security outcomes.
Topic:: Security, Women, Armed Conflict, Inclusion, Democratic Backsliding, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Iran, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Colombia, Palestine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan, and Global Focus

209. Advancing Accountability in Development Finance: The Sandra Smithey Fellowship

Author:: Rachel Nadelman and Anushka Bose
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: The Sandra N. Smithey Fellowship for Equity and Accountability in International Development was created to honor the career of Sandra Smithey, particularly her legacy in amplifying frontline voices that champion transparent and accountable approaches to development finance. Between 2023 and 2025, the Smithey Fellowship, administered by the Accountability Research Center (ARC) at American University, provided support to eight advocates advancing accountability in development finance. The central premise of the Fellowship is that accountability work is most effective when driven by those directly affected by development decisions and supported by flexible, trust-based funding. ARC worked with each of the fellows to define their own strategic goals and approaches within the time or resources available, seeking to ensure that each could meet the most pressing opportunities or challenges they faced. It provided them with significant flexibility to make mid-course changes to respond to political realities on the ground. The philosophy of “putting the fellows first” resulted in eight bespoke fellowships that reflected the breadth of civil society efforts to promote community- and context-based accountability in international development finance. Across these experiences, several key lessons emerge: Flexibility is a foundation for impact and sustainability. When fellows were given space to adapt to rapidly changing contexts, they achieved outcomes that rigid programs might have constrained. Altering conventional fellowship designs can change the balance in north-south knowledge hierarchies. An adaptable fellowship structure enabled some fellows to pursue their projects whilst embedded in their local communities, accessing support where their work was already taking shape. Translating knowledge can enable power shifts. Fellows who converted technical or bureaucratic language into practical tools enabled communities to engage institutions on their own terms. Collaboration is a vehicle for continuity of both projects and relationships. Collaboration among mentors, allies, and civil society organizations extended the reach of individual projects and embedded learning in broader movements. Longer-term influence depended on intentional efforts to maintain networks, communication, and financial stability after formal support ended. Enabling frontline expertise to shape accountability narratives can effectively support existing movements for rights and remedy. The fellows demonstrated that it is those closest to injustice that have the insight and credibility to define what accountability should mean in their own contexts as a basis for transformative change. This Accountability Note describes the work of these fellows and explores how a targeted package of direct funding, reflecting the fellows’ priorities and accompanied by trusted partners, enabled them to respond effectively to new and changing conditions. Ultimately, the Smithey Fellowship demonstrated that modest, well-structured support, grounded in trust, autonomy, and solidarity, can enable progress towards accountability and enable advocates to define and pursue their own paths in building durable movements for justice.
Topic:: Accountability, Sustainability, Fellowships, and Development Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

210. Compounded Vulnerability: Spatial Patterns of Energy Burden, Heat Exposure, and Pollution in New York City

Author:: Ximena Aristizabal and Paola Jaimes
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Energy insecurity and climate risk increasingly intersect in urban areas, yet they are often treated as separate challenges. This paper examines how household energy affordability stress, extreme heat exposure, and ambient air pollution overlap across urban space, using New York City as a case study. We introduce the concept of compounded vulnerability to describe neighborhoods where high energy burden and high heat exposure coincide, potentially intensifying environmental and health risks. Drawing on tract-level energy burden estimates, satellite-derived surface temperature measures, and summer PM2.5 concentrations, we combine a place-based interpretation of urban infrastructure and historical disinvestment with a tract-level empirical analysis of co-located risks. We document spatial co-location of economic and environmental stressors: neighborhoods facing higher energy burden are, on average, hotter, and areas experiencing joint exposure to heat and energy stress are also situated in environments characterized by elevated summer pollution. These patterns point to a plausible urban mechanism through which climatic extremes interact with energy systems and the built environment, shaping unequal exposure during periods of peak stress.
Topic:: Climate Change, Pollution, Vulnerability, Energy Security, and Heat
Political Geography:: New York, North America, and United States of America

211. The Under-theorisation of Dollar Dominance

Author:: Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The recent period has seen an upsurge in predictions that the dollar's international dominance will at some point be challenged by a rival currency, notably the euro. This paper counters these predictions. It argues that the overestimation of the euro's ability to challenge dollar dominance is due to the under-theorisation of the foundations of that dominance, the root problem being macroeconomic theories' tradition of taking the household investor to be the representative investor when it should in reality be an institutional asset manager. If financial securities are viewed through the lens of the institutional investor it becomes clear that there can be no exodus from the dollar because it becomes clear that foreign investors remain attracted to the US capital market for reasons as much to do with its mass and consequent gravitational force as to do with a shortage of securities that can be supplied by other capital markets.
Topic:: Political Economy, Investment, Macroeconomics, Currency, Dollar, Euro, and Capital Markets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

212. Contesting and Reassessing the 'Too Much Finance' Hypothesis: A Literature Review

Author:: Tania Rojas
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper reviews recent contributions that reassess and contest the “too much finance” hypothesis. It surveys a predominantly empirical body of work that, in contrast to earlier studies focused mainly on advanced economies, increasingly incorporates developing and less-developed regions. The evidence reviewed suggests that an inverted-U-shaped relationship between financial development and economic growth is more consistently identified in studies of advanced economies. In contrast, analyses of samples of less-developed countries more frequently report positive linear or U-shaped relationships, pointing to conditions of “too little finance.” The review also documents methodological shifts in the literature, including a growing adoption of nonlinear modeling strategies, the use of alternative measures of financial development, and a greater focus on mediating factors in the finance-growth nexus. The paper concludes that a clear consensus remains elusive. The literature faces persistent methodological challenges, sensitivity to model specification and sample composition, and a prevailing emphasis on empirical estimation rather than theoretical discussion.
Topic:: Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Literature Review, and Financial Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

213. Analysis of Van Province’s Migration from Iran by Geographically Weighted Regression Method

Author:: Bahadır Yüzbaşı and Çetin Görür
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The ability of migrants to adapt to their new environment in a short period of time while establishing a new life is an important factor affecting the welfare of both individuals and societies. The process of adaptation can determine the quality of life of the individual, reflecting the migrant’s ability to adapt socially, economically and culturally to their new environment. Adaptation in the new life after migration is usually associated with factors such as age, post-migration support from public institutions, postmigration support from relatives, post-migration support from neighbors, and inadequate educational opportunities. In this study, migration from Iran to Van province was analyzed using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. The analysis focused on identifying the factors that influence individuals’ responses to the statement “I adapted to my new life in a short time after migration”. According to the analysis results, it is observed that the GWR method gives stronger results. In comparison to the ordinary least squares (OLS) model, the GWR model demonstrates clear superiority across all evaluation criteria, indicating that the GWR model provides a substantially better fit to the data by capturing spatial variability more effectively.
Topic:: Migration, Integration, Forced Migration, Spatial Heterogeneity, and Local Modeling
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Van

214. Impact of Migration Policies on Ukrainian Migrants in Turkey: Embrace vs Provision

Author:: Şebnem Köşer Akçapar and Filiz Tutku Aydın
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The aim of this study is to elucidate decision-making processes of Ukrainian forced migrants of diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds relocated in Turkey in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian War since 2022. We examine trends in prospective plans, including return, settlement, migration to third countries, and identify key factors influencing social integration in Turkey. To this end, extensive field research was conducted in five provinces in Turkey – İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir, Eskişehir and Antalya – between 2022 and 2024. This study employed qualitative method consisting of in-depth interviews with a wide range of stakeholders, including Ukrainian diplomatic representatives, migrant organizations, Turkish provincial migration management officials, and post-2022 Ukrainian migrants who were residing in Turkey under various statuses. The findings indicated that decisions between permanence and transience were determined by the state’s migrant and asylum policies along the embrace and provision continuum. In addition, active involvement of ethnic organizations of Ukrainians in migration processes appear to act as a factor that either triggers or hinders social cohesion.
Topic:: Asylum, Decision-Making, Forced Migration, Migrants, Russia-Ukraine War, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

215. Diplomacy Meets Paradiplomacy: Unpacking Central Government Responses through Evidence from Turkey’s Paradiplomac

Author:: Esra Kaya Erdoğan and Emrah Atar
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This study examines the central government’s response to the paradiplomacy of sub-state actors through an analysis of the Turkish case, using a qualitative approach. As part of this research, a total of twelve face-to-face or virtual interviews were conducted with the representatives from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Marmara Municipalities Union, and academics between June 2023 and November 2023. It views paradiplomacy as an outcome of the ongoing trend to localize diplomacy and aims to identify varying central government responses to paradiplomacy. These responses are analyzed using a three-fold categorization: positive, negative and mixed. The characteristics of each category explored in the context of the Turkish case. The study suggests that, despite the central government’s opportunistic approach to paradiplomacy, its response has shown a cyclical tendency. The central government’s stance on paradiplomacy is therefore complex and politically driven. It fluctuates along a broad spectrum, ranging from direct support to outright exclusion. This reflects the shifting political dynamics in Turkey.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Governance, Municipalities, and Sub-state Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

216. The European Court of Human Rights Framework of the Property Issue in Cyprus: An Evaluation of the Immovable Property Commission

Author:: Perçem Arman and Özde Bayraktar
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Despite being physically divided in 1974, no peace agreement has been made in Cyprus since then. Amongst the issues awaiting solution, perhaps the most difficult one is the property issue. Problems related to property rights have been brought to the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) on several occasions. This study focuses on the Immovable Property Commission (IPC), which was established in accordance with the jurisprudence of the ECtHR. In a frozen conflict environment, the ECtHR, although not a transitional justice mechanism for resolving human rights violations in armed conflicts, occasionally plays an effective role in pressuring national authorities to repair the destructive effects of conflict periods. This study assesses the effectiveness of the IPC’s role in addressing property issues in general and within this specific context.
Topic:: Displacement, Transitional Justice, Property, Compensation, and European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

217. Lost in Definition: How Confusion over Agentic AI Risks Undermining U.S. Governance Frameworks

Author:: Yasir Atalan, Ian Reynolds, and Benjamin Jensen
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: “Agentic AI” is an umbrella term that covers a wide range of systems from basic chat assistants to complex autonomous workflows. This ambiguity risks undermining U.S. governance frameworks and creating procurement vulnerabilities that expose organizations to mismatched capabilities and unaccounted risks. If the same vague word is applied to a helpful chatbot and a combat-ready swarm, the United States could accidentally deploy a system with the power to start an operation before that system understands the context or risks involved. The danger is not that the AI lacks intelligence, but that it lacks judgment; a system might be smart enough to execute a task perfectly yet fail to realize that a sudden change in the local situation makes that task a catastrophic mistake. This is particularly critical in national security environments where decisionmaking stakes are high. There is a need for clearer context charts for AI workflows so that commanders know exactly which tasks a machine can handle alone and exactly which who is responsible if the machine makes a mistake. The U.S. government must establish a relational, capability-based taxonomy that specifies where systems sit in workflows, what authorities they exercise, and how accountability is distributed. This approach shifts acquisition and oversight from a narrow focus on technical features to understanding broad organizational impact and ensuring evaluation matches real operational risk.
Topic:: Governance, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, Economic Security, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

218. The Rise of “Watt’s Law” and Why Power Could Put a Ceiling on American Innovation

Author:: Maryam Cope
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: A foundational advantage of the U.S. digital economy is weakening. For decades, Moore’s Law and Dennard scaling delivered steady improvements in computing performance while keeping energy costs manageable and underpinning productivity growth, industrial competitiveness, and national security capabilities. AI workloads upend these assumptions. Modern AI systems depend on massive parallelism, continuous data movement, and sustained operation across large clusters, making energy utilization and availability more important than peak chip performance. This shift defines the emergence of “Watt’s Law.” Under Watt’s Law, AI capability scales with available power growth multiplied by system-wide innovation driven by full-stack optimization across hardware, software, networking, and operations. This can be measured by growth in tokens per joule of energy. Power is now the significant binding constraint on AI progress. National competitive advantage increasingly depends on who can most efficiently convert electricity into sustained, real-world AI output, rather than who builds the smallest transistors. The implications are strategic. Failure to adapt to a power-constrained scaling regime risks forfeiting a key source of productivity growth and long-term advantage in AI-enabled economic and national security capabilities. It also has implications for U.S. partnerships with energy-rich allies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

219. China’s Solar Industry Is in Upheaval—The Effects Will Be Global

Author:: Michael Davidson and Sandy Qian
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Over the past few years, China’s solar industry has entered a period of intense upheaval. Price wars and margin compression have forced industry leaders—including Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar—to report significant losses. These firms, along with LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei—the industry’s top five—slashed their workforce by over 30 percent in 2024. The market is facing industry consolidation and exits not seen in over a decade, as over 40 smaller firms have filed for bankruptcy, been acquired, or exited the market. Chinese regulators are accelerating this process, which will have ripple effects across global solar markets. Several critical questions arise: Does this phase erode China’s leadership in solar, or entrench it further? Is it a window for others to close the gap, or a prelude to deeper market displacement? And when the current wave of capacity consolidation settles, what will the next global competitive order look like? The answer is already emerging. Rather than opening space for rivals to catch up, the current shocks are forging a more resilient Chinese solar core. By embedding deeper into global value chains and securing a technological lead, China is effectively reshaping the industry’s future trajectory to its own long-term advantage.
Topic:: Sustainability, Industry, Solar Power, and Energy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

220. Practical H-1B Reforms to Serve U.S. Economic Interests

Author:: Philip Luck and Thibault Denamiel
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: In its first year, the second Trump administration has implemented substantial changes to the H-1B immigration program. Some of these changes will create significant economic harm; others have the potential to improve efficiency and support industrial policy goals, with further adjustments. In September 2025, the administration announced a $100,000 fee on new petitions for H-1B visas outside of the United States, a likely prohibitive increase in costs for many firms seeking to hire skilled immigrant labor. In parallel, the administration released a final rule last December to increase the visa lottery system’s allocation efficiency. The administration’s lottery reform would benefit from additional changes to better distribute the economic dividends of skilled immigration to underserved geographies and priority sectors. Such policy changes are critically important to U.S. competitiveness, given the program’s track record of success in attracting global talent and driving economic growth. To strengthen the United States’ technological advantage, innovation ecosystem, and economic prosperity, policymakers should look to expand the H-1B program and reform its incentives while limiting costly new barriers to its use.
Topic:: Reform, Innovation, Economic Security, Immigration Policy, and H-1B Visa
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

221. Energy Infrastructure and the Defense Industrial Base

Author:: Joseph Majkut, Alexander Palmer, and Raj Sawhney
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Can the energy infrastructure serving the U.S. defense industrial base sustain production under mobilization? This paper focuses on three scenarios for mobilization consistent with baseline production, defense buildup, and peer war. Using embodied energy methods, the research team estimates that war production rates would require 17.4 petajoules (PJ) of energy annually, a relatively small amount nationally, but one that would need to be concentrated at facilities in already stressed grid regions. Facilities for the defense-critical production of steel, aluminum, titanium, and semiconductors are clustered in regions already facing eroding reserve margins and surging data center demands. Natural gas deliverability constraints compound these risks, as key facilities depend on gas both as direct fuel and as the primary source of regional electricity generation. This paper recommends extending defense-critical electric infrastructure designations to industrial nodes, creating dedicated permitting and finance pathways to facilitate energy production, and integrating energy resilience into supply chain risk assessments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Sustainability, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Global Focus

222. Using Minerals and Energy to Rebuild the U.S.-South Africa Relationship

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The United States is quietly losing access to the minerals that underpin its defense systems, semiconductor manufacturing, and reindustrialization agenda—not through geopolitical confrontation, but through commercial neglect. South Africa is the dominant U.S. supplier of platinum group metals, chromium, manganese, and military-grade vanadium, and no allied nation comes close to matching its combination of mineral wealth, processing capacity, and technical expertise. Yet rising energy costs and crumbling infrastructure are pushing South Africa’s processing sector toward closure, and without intervention, that capacity will continue migrating to China by default. As political tensions between Washington and Pretoria have intensified, it is worth remembering what is actually at stake: a supply relationship built over more than a century that would be extraordinarily costly to lose and nearly impossible to replace.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Trade, Economic Security, Semiconductors, Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

223. Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine: Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power

Author:: Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power. Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century. Meanwhile, Russia’s war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, slowing growth of 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms to help drive long-term productivity.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Economics, Intelligence, Science and Technology, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

224. Trump’s New Nuclear Architecture for Modernization and Arms Control

Author:: Heather Williams and Nicholas Adamopoulos
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Expanding upon the National Defense Strategy (NDS), Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno recently announced a new nuclear architecture “that addresses the threats of today, not those of a bygone era,” including nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) and China’s growing nuclear arsenal. Facing this increasingly volatile security environment, the United States under the Trump administration must simultaneously modernize its nuclear arsenal and pursue arms control and risk reduction measures. To deter adversaries and manage escalation especially in theater conflicts, the United States may need to diversify and expand its nuclear arsenal, including by investing in nuclear-capable standoff weapons. Following this new architecture, the administration should also continue to work toward arms control agreements with both China and Russia, including risk reduction measures, such as a Presidential Nuclear Summit.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, Modernization, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

225. The Agency of Middle Powers in a Fragmented and Polarised World

Author:: Thomas Greminger
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:: The international system is entering a period of intensified fragmentation and geopolitical polarisation. Competition among China, Russia, and the United States is reshaping the global order and redefining spheres of influence. These dynamics create both challenges and opportunities for middle powers, which must navigate contested spaces where alignment with one great power can generate tensions with others. Middle powers face a delicate balance: they seek to preserve their autonomy, influence multilateral institutions and maintain credibility in international networks, and their choices whether to align with a particular great power, hedge their international relationship bets, or engage in principled diplomacy can either stabilise fragmented regions or amplify systemic competition. Yet debates about the future of the international order tend to focus on great powers and institutional reform, leaving the behaviour of middle powers under-explored. This Policy Brief examines how middle powers can exercise strategic autonomy and influence in a fragmented world. It emphasises behaviour, relational positioning, and policy choices rather than material capacity alone by analysing how middle powers balance principles with pragmatism; manage geography and alignment; and engage in bridge-building, coalition-building, and mediation. It then assesses their capacity to stabilise regional and global orders, support multilateralism, and enhance systemic resilience.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, Polarization, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, Global Focus, and United States of America

226. Guidelines for Decarbonizing Industry in Time to Meet Global Climate Goals

Author:: Chris Bataille, Seton Stiebert, and Francis Li
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Near-term guidance for decarbonizing global industry is needed to ensure it happens on pace to meet Paris Agreement climate goals. Such insights would help industry and financial decision-makers as well as inform government policies meant to support the transition toward lower-carbon energy sources. This report combines a review of country diplomatic commitments, policies, and industrial roadmaps with decarbonization scenarios and new global modeling to suggest timelines, carbon prices, regulations, and lead markets for clean products, to replace unabated fossil fuel–powered industrial facilities and equipment with near-zero carbon emissions alternatives. It also estimates the capital and operating expenditures required, and provides policy options to support these efforts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industry, Paris Agreement, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

227. Assessing US Government Efforts to Support Fossil Fuel–Reliant Communities

Author:: Noah Kaufman
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The decline of domestic fossil fuel production in the United States poses serious economic risks for communities that rely on fossil fuel industries for jobs and public revenues. Many of these communities lack the resources and capacity to manage those risks on their own. The absence of viable economic strategies for affected regions is a barrier to building the broad, durable coalitions needed for an equitable national transition to cleaner energy sources. President Joe Biden touted investments into fossil fuel–reliant communities as part of his administration’s broader place-based economic and climate change strategies. This study assesses those federal efforts, examining the rationale, design, and implementation status of the major programs involved.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Government, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

228. Predicting protest participation: Insights from the year before Kenya’s 2024 anti-tax demonstrations

Author:: Daniel Iberi and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Protests – often described as “unconventional” or “non-institutional” forms of political participation (Barnes & Kaase, 1979; Hooghe & Marien, 2013) – have increased markedly across Africa since 2010, a trend sometimes referred to as the continent’s “third wave of protests” (Mueller, 2018; Najimdeen, 2024). Protests such as South Africa’s #RhodesMustFall (2015) and #FeesMustFall (2016), Zimbabwe’s #ThisFlag protests (2016), Nigeria’s #EndSARS demonstrations (2020), and Madagascar’s 2025 demonstrations that toppled President Andry Rajoelina illustrate both the breadth and political significance of this wave (Fihlani, 2019; Lawal, 2024; Princewill, 2025). In Kenya, patterns of protest participation have evolved considerably over the past two decades. While the country has experienced repeated episodes of mass protest – most notably around contested elections in 2007, 2013, and 2017 – the character of protest activity has shifted, with recent protests increasingly centred on economic grievances, cost-of-living pressures, and perceptions of fiscal injustice rather than electoral disputes.
Topic:: Economics, Protests, Tax Systems, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

229. Democracy and its discontented: What drives demand for democracy in South Africa?

Author:: Rehan Visser
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Support for democracy rests on a range of foundations. Citizens may value democracy intrinsically, as the most legitimate form of rule regardless of outcomes, or instrumentally, as a system judged by its capacity to deliver material well-being, security, and effective governance. Understanding which of these logics predominates is central to assessing the resilience of democratic regimes. In the early years after the end of White-minority rule, South Africans were more likely than their continental peers to evaluate democracy in material terms, valuing it for what it could deliver rather than for its inherent virtues. Attitudes were closely tied to assessments of government performance and expectations of improvements in quality of life (Bratton & Mattes, 2001). As the regime matured, delivery of political goods entered the equation (Mattes, 2012). A generation after apartheid’s end, it is worth returning to this question: Is demand for democracy in South Africa still performance-driven?
Topic:: Government, Governance, Democracy, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

230. Pressure points: Africa’s health systems amid global aid contraction

Author:: Joseph Asunka, Boniface Dulani, and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Since the COVID-19 pandemic, African governments have been compelled to reassess how best to protect hard-won public health gains while ensuring equitable and reliable care. These reassessments are taking place against a background of shifting geopolitical alignments, tightening fiscal space, and growing public expectations of quality public services. This reckoning intensified in 2025 with the disbanding of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the cancellation of major foreign-funded health programmes, effectively dismantling one of the pillars of Africa’s health-support architecture.
Topic:: Health, Foreign Aid, Social Services, Public Health, USAID, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

231. Nuclear Energy’s New Momentum: Can World Capacity Triple by 2050?

Author:: Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The second Nuclear Energy Summit highlighted renewed global momentum to expand nuclear power as countries face volatile fossil-fuel supplies amid ongoing Middle East tensions. With governments pledging to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, nuclear energy is once again being positioned as a reliable low-carbon pillar of energy security. However, the speed and credibility of this expansion will ultimately depend not only on financing and technology, but also on regulatory institutions, industrial capacity, and a skilled workforce needed to govern it safely.
Topic:: Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

232. Global Water Bankruptcy: Southeast Asia’s Water Future Is a Peace and Security Issue

Author:: Adam Hansen and Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: As the world enters an era of water bankruptcy, Southeast Asia faces a future with increased competition over shared water resources. With data centres reliant on water-intensive cooling systems, adding to the region’s drivers of water insecurity, stronger multistakeholder cooperation and confidence-building measures are crucial to reduce tensions and enhance sustainable water management.
Topic:: Security, Natural Resources, Water, Peace, Competition, and Data Centers
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

233. Food Security in ASEAN’s 2026 Agenda: Perspectives on Human Security and Inclusiveness Amidst Crises

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Kayven Tan, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Farmers form the backbone of ASEAN agriculture but are increasingly vulnerable amidst crises and longer-term structural challenges, including ageing, urbanisation, and natural disasters. A human security approach that prioritises these vulnerabilities is integral to resilience.
Topic:: Agriculture, Natural Disasters, Urbanization, Food Security, Human Security, ASEAN, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Asia and Global Focus

234. The UN Climate Regime and the US Withdrawal

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Trump administration announced the US withdrawal from the international climate regime earlier this year. One possible explanation lies in the growing influence of the IPCC’s scientific authority in domestic spheres, which may have altered the perceived costs and benefits of continued participation. Despite the US absence, the UNFCCC remains an important platform for international climate cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

235. Securing ASEAN’s Food Resilience Amidst the Middle East Conflict

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Kayven Tan, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Middle East conflict is set to have a double-whammy impact on both ASEAN’s import of fertilisers, and its energy-intensive fertiliser production. The timing is critical as in the coming months, the five major crops, including rice, are being planted in ASEAN.
Topic:: Agriculture, Food Security, Resilience, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Middle East and Asia

236. Effective Sustainable Development

Author:: Barry Buzan
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: How can we make the concept of sustainable development more effective? Finding a pathway towards effective sustainable development (ESD) becomes more urgent as global warming specifically, and the Anthropocene crisis generally, intensify. It helps to take a long view of development and its role in global society (the anthroposphere) before focusing on what characteristics ESD needs to have.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Anthropocene, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Asia

237. Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh - democracy restored by revolution

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The first democratic elections held in Bangladesh for 18 years, on 12 February this year, were won by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tariq Zia Rahman. This marks the end of the transition period following the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024 and the rebirth of democracy. The biggest challenges for the new government will be to strengthen the rule of law, accelerate economic growth and improve relations with India. The EU, which supported the transition process, should become more involved in assisting the democratic government and economic cooperation.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Democracy, Economic Growth, Rule of Law, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

238. Avoiding a Long War - Objectives and Conditions for the US Attack on Iran

Author:: Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The American operation in Iran may be prolonged, lasting several months instead of the planned few weeks. The low public support of Americans for intervention and the economic effects of rising oil prices are unlikely to change the US administration’s stance. Difficulties in completely eliminating the threats posed by Iran may prompt Donald Trump to increase military involvement, including the use of special forces or the launch of a ground invasion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Military Intervention, Armed Conflict, and Energy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

239. Conclusion of Negotiations on the EU-India Trade Agreement

Author:: Patryk Kugiel and Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The most important outcome of the 16th EU–India summit, which took place on January 27 in New Delhi, was the announcement of an agreement on a trade deal. When it comes into force, it will create one of the largest free trade areas in the world and open up a huge Indian market for goods and services from the EU. At a time of growing protectionism in international trade and power-based politics, strengthening economic ties between the EU and India takes on a strategic dimension.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

240. The Impact of Purges in the Chinese Army on Its Effectiveness

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: Xi Jinping, as the Party’s secretary general, continues to strengthen his personal oversight of the Chinese armed forces, as evidenced by disciplinary actions against Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Combined with the purges that began in 2022, the growing atmosphere of uncertainty, and the increasing pressure to demonstrate loyalty to Xi, this raises the risk that the authorities will misjudge the condition of their armed forces. This may increase the likelihood of escalation, for example, towards Taiwan.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Reform, Xi Jinping, Escalation, Loyalty, and Purge
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

241. Diplomacy in the Foreground. The New EU Migration Policy Framework

Author:: Jolanta Szymańska
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The migration, asylum and visa strategies, presented at the end of January this year by the European Commission, set the framework for EU migration policy for the coming years. According to both documents' assumptions, migration diplomacy is intended to support the Union's security and global competitiveness priorities. The planned reforms aim to eliminate abuses of the asylum and visa system and to attract skilled workers and investment to the EU. The implementation of the strategy will be challenged by both instability in Europe's neighbourhood and the persistent reluctance of member states to accept migrants.
Topic:: Diplomacy, European Union, Asylum, Visa, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

242. The war in Iran: a test of the Gulf states' economic resilience

Author:: Julia Sochacka
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: Forecasts of the long-term economic consequences of the war in Iran for the Gulf states are unequivocally negative. The scale of the losses depends on whether the strategies for building economic resilience implemented by these countries can withstand the shock caused by regional destabilisation. Faced with Iran taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, the EU’s top priority in the short term will be to ensure energy security, and in the long term to diversify its economic partnerships.
Topic:: Security, Economics, European Union, Resilience, Energy, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

243. Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Heightens Tensions in the Horn of Africa

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state on 26 December last year triggered a series of dangerous processes in the Horn of Africa. These could lead to an escalation of armed conflicts within Somaliland’s declared borders and in its immediate vicinity. The EU should be guided in this matter by the criteria of legality and stability in the wider Horn of Africa.
Topic:: European Union, Borders, Armed Conflict, and Recognition
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Somaliland

244. Global development policy and the New World Disorder: the Trump Administration's delivery of a high-voltage shockwave to multilateral norms, institutional commitments and long-standing principles

Author:: Stephan Klingebiel and Andy Sumner
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Global development policy is a particularly revealing field in which the Trump administration combines crude transactionalism with a high level of ideological commitment, namely an authoritarian libertarianism oriented toward elite interests. This is coupled with, at times, a chaotic absence of tactical or strategic coherence. With Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, a significant phase in international affairs, including global development policy, began. This policy brief traces the evolution of the US approach to development cooperation and exposes how Trump's approach represents an overtly aggressive assault, delivering a high voltage shockwave to global sustainable development policy, undermining multilateral norms, institutional commitments and long-standing principles of international solidarity. The United States (US) has played a decisive role in the conception and evolution of global development policy since the mid-20th century. From the establishment of the post-Second World War order onward, the US shaped the normative, political and organizational foundations of development cooperation, often setting agendas, defining standards, and providing leadership and personnel for key multilateral institutions. Early reconstruction efforts such as the Marshall Plan and the establishment of the World Bank embedded development within a broader framework of power politics, positioning aid as both a tool of reconstruction and geopolitical influence. Since January 2025, US development cooperation has undergone a dramatic rupture. The administration rapidly withdrew from multilateral institutions, cut budgets, and de facto dissolved USAID, transferring residual functions to the State Department. This shift was accompanied by conspiracy narratives and an explicit rejection of multilateral norms, marking a sharp departure from previous Republican and Democratic approaches alike. The brief conceptualises this shift as the emergence of a “New Washington Dissensus”: a model of transactional, nationalist development cooperation that treats aid as an instrument of power rather than a global public good. Under this paradigm, development engagement is ideologically conditional, hostile to climate and equity agendas, oriented toward migration control, and explicitly transactional. The Trump administration's National Security Strategy (December 2025) is consistent with this in the sense that it frames an “America First” approach that narrows US priorities to “core, vital national interests” and places strong emphasis on Western Hemisphere pre-eminence via a stated “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. For global development, foreign assistance and development finance are thus instruments of strategic competition and commercial diplomacy. US agencies are mobilized to back US commercial positioning. The consequences are dramatic and systemic. The US retreat has destabilized the global development architecture and intensified geopolitical fragmentation. For many countries in the Global South, this represents a watershed moment, creating both new room for maneuver and new dependencies as states pursue multi-alignment strategies amid intensifying great-power rivalry. At the same time, humanitarian impacts are severe. Overall, the brief concludes that development policy has entered a new phase, which is narrower, more instrumental and overtly geopolitical,and is reshaping not only US engagement but the future of global development policy itself.
Topic:: Development, Multilateralism, Institutions, Norms, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

245. Making global benefits pay: the World Bank reform to support global public goods

Author:: Jakob Schwab
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Global public goods (GPGs) are goods that are produced locally but have global effects. GPGs are essential for securing global development. The climate and biodiversity crises, pandemics, as well as fragility, conflict and violence are threatening livelihoods and well-being around the world, and addressing them would have enormous positive economic and social effects. However, the cross-border externalities involved are not being fully taken into account by countries, and hence these GPGs are still underprovided compared with what would be globally optimal. One year ago, the World Bank launched the Framework for Financial Incentives (FFI) to strengthen the support of GPGs in its operations. This novel instrument encourages countries to implement investment projects and policies that have positive spillovers to other countries by offering targeted financial incentives. As a core element of the World Bank's Evolution reform, the FFI reflects the recognition that relatively modest investments in client countries can generate substantial global benefits – for other developing and emerging economies as well as for the Bank's shareholder countries. Its challenges lie in incorporating the non-financial aspects of GPGs and the multi-faceted motivations to provide them in bankable operations. This policy brief discusses the relevance of GPGs for development and presents the World Bank's approach to supporting their provision in client countries through the FFI. The key takeaways are: • GPGs are not all those that are commonly shared or agreed upon as goals but are defined by the specific problem structure that the involved cross-border externalities entail. • Investment in GPGs can generate substantial benefits – not only for developing and emerging economies, but also for high-income countries that make up the World Bank's largest shareholders. Consequently, both out of enlightened self-interest and as a cost-effective way to advance global sustainable development at a time when international development budgets are undergoing significant reductions, shareholder countries should increase their contributions to the FFI. This applies in particular to those provided to the Livable Planet Fund, which provides the essential grant financing for countries' GPG-related projects. • To retain and strengthen confidence among stakeholders, the FFI must deploy its resources efficiently. This implies offering grants only when projects' overall domestic benefits are insufficient to motivate countries to provide GPGs on their own, and extending loans instead when client countries have sufficient self-interest to ensure repayment. The assessment of costs and benefits is complex, but it should improve with experience and become increasingly standardized. To signal its effectiveness, the FFI should pursue full transparency in its allocation decisions and undertake systematic impact assessments.
Topic:: Development, World Bank, Reform, and Public Goods
Political Geography:: Global Focus

246. Beyond the wage channel: climate-smart public works programs and household resilience in Malawi

Author:: Tekalign Gutu Sakketa, Francesco Burchi, Sophia Schubert, and Donald Makoka
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: One of the main arguments for implementing public works programs (PWPs) instead of other social protection schemes such as cash transfers is that the assets created through these programs themselves can generate medium- to long-term benefits. This is particularly important as the costs for supervision and the construction materials can account for up to 70 per cent of program budgets. Despite this, there is scarce empirical evidence on PWPs' effects through the “asset channel”: indeed; most studies have focused solely on the traditional “wage channel”. To bridge this gap, this paper examines whether and how assets created under Malawi's Climate-Smart Enhanced Public Works Program (CS-EPWP) – a program recently implemented by the government of Malawi and funded by the World Bank – strengthen the resilience of households to climate shocks such as droughts and floods. The paper relies on case study analysis using primary qualitative data based on focus group discussions and key informant interviews with different stakeholders at the national, district and community levels. Interviews were conducted during fieldwork in September 2024 in two southern districts of Malawi highly affected by climate change. The analysis is complemented by site visits and quantitative survey data on asset quality. By combining these methods, we find that the CS-EPWP generates durable, community-maintained assets, which in turn enhance households' capacity to cope with and adapt to climate shocks. In particular, land-based assets provide multiple benefits for both households and communities, while forest-based interventions are expected to generate similar long-term gains, although further research is needed to confirm their (long-term) impacts. To maximize the impact of climate-smart public works programs, policymakers and donors should align asset creation with climate objectives and adopt participatory approaches to ensure their relevance, maintenance and long-term sustainability.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Resilience, and Public Works
Political Geography:: Africa and Malawi

247. What do the 2015 SDG negotiations teach us for a beyond-2030 framework?

Author:: Paula von Haaren and Axel Berger
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – the global framework establishing 17 universal and interconnected goals to guide sustainable development efforts – was adopted in 2015 following a uniquely participative and ambitious process. A decade on, it is increasingly evident that most of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are unlikely to be achieved by 2030 as originally envisioned. Discussions about a follow-up framework beyond 2030 are gaining momentum ahead of the SDG Summit in September 2027. This paper evaluates the process design, inclusiveness, negotiating strategies, fora and fault lines in 2015 and discusses to what extent the lessons learned can be applied to negotiations for a potential follow-up framework. We find that several process design elements and negotiation strategies, as well as actor composition, fostered trust and ownership, reduced polarization and enabled agreements on ambitious targets. In particular, the process benefited from the inclusion of diverse, non-hierarchical actor communities, a long, science-based stocktaking phase, the breaking up of traditional negotiating blocks, transparency, and emphasis on common interests. We also identify several recurring fault lines that are overwhelmingly still relevant today. Apart from the above best practices of the process leading to the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, we identify several shortcomings that should be addressed in the beyond-2030 negotiations: inefficiencies due to competing tracks for the development of the goals; top-down agenda-setting processes leading to less ambitious outcomes; barriers to participation of and accountability towards some marginalized and informal actors; and the watering down of goals and indicators – including non-tangible targets and unresolved inconsistencies and trade-offs within the agenda. Finally, the paper argues that the beyond-2030 negotiations will take place in a context that is similar to the process that led to the SDGs but is nevertheless in many ways more challenging than in 2015, amidst intensifying crises, political shifts and loss of trust.
Topic:: Development and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

248. Geopolitics and development in Central Asia: exploring opportunities for middle powers

Author:: Hyeyoung Woo
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Central Asia has emerged as a key region where the convergence of geopolitics and development cooperation is most visible. Major powers are redefining their approaches: Japan combines official development assistance (ODA) with commercial partnerships to advance connectivity and reform; the EU is emphasizing a sustainable infrastructure and governance-oriented approach; the US is expected to catalyze private investment rather than direct aid; China deepens its regional presence through the Belt and Road Initiative; while Russia leverages historical and security ties to maintain influence. Meanwhile, middle powers – countries that do not wield vast influence like major powers but possess substantial capacity to shape international events – are exploring new opportunities for engagement. Türkiye positions itself as a bridge between advanced economies and the Global South, emphasizing connectivity and energy cooperation through the Middle Corridor and the Organization of Turkic States. South Korea's 2025 ODA Strategy for Central Asia identifies the region as a strategic partner for shared growth, integrating pragmatic diplomacy with value-based cooperation. By leveraging their soft power and policy experience, these middle powers offer a distinctive model for development partnership. Central Asian governments are responding to a changing international environment by diversifying partnerships through regional integration and more strategic engagement with development partners.
Topic:: Development, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Strategic Partnerships, Middle Powers, and Private Investment
Political Geography:: Central Asia

249. The decline of French agriculture in Europe

Author:: Bernard Bourget
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The farmers' protests of the winter 2025-2026 are an amplified replica of those of two years ago, mainly in France, due in particular to competition between, on the one hand, the FNSEA[1] (Fédération nationale des syndicats d’exploitants agricoles) and the Young Farmers, and on the other hand, the very aggressive Coordination Rurale and the Confédération Paysanne. These protests focused on two issues: - The management of the contagious nodular dermatitis (CND) crisis, more specifically the opposition to the slaughter of all infected herds, even though this radical method has proven effective in Savoie and Haute-Savoie, where it has eradicated the disease. - The free trade agreement between the European Union and the four MERCOSUR countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay), which is currently awaiting approval. It is also the expression of a deep unease among French farmers, who have faced a series of difficulties in recent years that have not been experienced with the same intensity by their counterparts in other Member States. The causes of these difficulties therefore need to be analyzed. In Jean-Luc Demarty’s opinion[2], the main cause is the loss of competitiveness of French agriculture on the European market, which is reflected in an increase in agricultural income in France of only 17% between 2010 and 2024, well below the European average (77%) and that of Spain (79%), Poland (86%) or Italy (170%). The reasons why the agri-food trade balance of France has collapsed must also be examined. It was only positive of 200 Million euros in 2025. In recent years, French agriculture has had to grapple with health, climate and economic crises. The health crises have affected cattle (epizootic haemorrhagic disease and contagious nodular dermatosis), sheep (bluetongue) and poultry farms (avian influenza), while pig farms are still threatened by African swine fever. Climate change is having a severe impact on French agriculture, with successive droughts, floods and spring frosts. While health and climate crises also affect agriculture in other Member States, it is in the area of foreign trade that French agriculture is clearly hardest hit, particularly by moves by China and the United States to target wines and spirits, the leading export item for the French agri-food industry. The cereal sector, which is the second largest agri-food export item, is suffering from competition from the Black Sea countries and, above all, from Russia's offensive for wheat on African markets. The Algerian market was thus lost in 2025 in the context of that country's dispute with France, while the price of wheat is currently below $200 per tonne, (below the average production cost for French farmers), and the European Commission wants to tax imports of nitrogen fertilisers from Russia and Belarus as part of the carbon border adjustment mechanism.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, European Union, Protests, Free Trade, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and France

250. Hybrid threats: from geopolitics to internal security

Author:: Jean Mafart
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Although the concept of hybrid threats is now widely accepted despite its rather vague nature, there remains a blind spot in European discussions and strategic thinking: the phenomenon is still rarely addressed from the perspective of internal security policy. It has long been recognised that hybrid threats – whether cyberattacks, arson, disinformation, interference in electoral processes or the exploitation of migration flows – can strike within our borders. The European Union acknowledged this: the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) committees regularly address the issue and the Commission gives it considerable attention in its internal security strategy of April 2025. In fact, it is mainly on the basis of hybrid threats that the document justifies the proposal to double the staff of Europol. However, the emergence of these threats in the internal security policies of the EU and its Member States raises important questions, both in terms of principles and operations, most of which remain unanswered. It is instructive to browse through the wealth of analytical and policy papers available on hybrid threats: the geopolitical dimension of the phenomenon still predominates, and while authors sometimes address the resilience of European states and societies, there is almost nothing to be found on how to respond to these threats in the context of internal security policy or on the necessary adaptation of the instruments of this policy. In other words, it is as if the concept of hybrid threats, which originally concerned defence and foreign policy circles, had forcefully found its way into European internal security policy and had not yet been fully assimilated into the internal sphere. If we add to this the fact that European internal security policy itself remains little known despite the considerable proportions it has taken on in recent decades, the current state of strategic thinking is not conducive to the consolidation of a strategy to deal with hybrid threats in their internal dimension. However, a strategy of this kind would be very useful, following the example of what has long existed within NATO and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) for the external dimension: does the issue of hybrid threats, now referred to in every context but without a coherent approach, risk leading European internal security policy astray, diverting it from its primary purpose ? and how can the competences of the Union, its Member States and other actors be harmoniously combined when hybrid threats blur the line between internal and external security, or even between national security – which is in principle the remit of the Member States – and the competences of the Union?
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, Geopolitics, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS