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2401. Cybersecurity in Vietnam: Challenges and Opportunities in an Era of Digital Transformation

Author:
Hung Tran
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Vietnam has experienced remarkable digital transformation over the past two decades with Internet penetration surging from zero percent in 2000 to 78 percent in 2023. This rapid digital growth, however, has brought increasing cybersecurity challenges. This article examines the current state of Vietnam's cybersecurity landscape, identifies key challenges, and explores opportunities for international cooperation to strengthen the nation's cyber resilience. Online fraud represents one of the most prevalent cybercrimes targeting Vietnamese internet users. A survey conducted by the National Cybersecurity Association (NCA) in 2024 involving 59,000 respondents identified fake investment schemes, institutional identity impersonation, and fraudulent lottery announcements as predominant forms of fraud. The Vietnam Information Security Warning Portal received nearly 16,000 reports of online frauds in 2023, resulting in estimated losses of USD 16.6 billion, equivalent to 3.6 percent of the country's GDP. These figures likely underrepresent the true scope of the problem, as many incidents go unreported.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Cybersecurity, Internet, and Digital Transformation
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

2402. Empowering Blue Economy Communities through Data and Innovation

Author:
Genevieve Donnellon-May
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
As the blue economy grows in importance—encompassing sectors from fisheries and aquaculture to maritime transport and offshore energy—so too must our understanding of the families and communities who power it. Given the continuing rise in commercial fishing demand and aquaculture expansion, the importance of ocean resources for global food security and economic stability has become even more critical. Unsustainable practices like overfishing and ocean acidification further threaten both marine ecosystems and community livelihoods. Coastal laborers and their families often remain invisible, underpaid, and vulnerable despite their oversized role in sustaining ocean-based industries. To ensure a more inclusive and sustainable ocean economy, a Targeted Research and Data Collection Program to gather comprehensive data collection and monitoring systems to recognize these contributions and enhance protections for entire communities, while also advancing Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 (sustainable oceans), is needed.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Innovation, Data, Economic Stability, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Indo-Pacific

2403. Navigating Uncertainty: Civil Society’s Struggles and Challenges in Post-2011 Tunisia

Author:
Hamza Meddeb and Rania Berro
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The concept of “civil society” (mujtamaâ madanî) emerged in Tunisia during the associative boom of the 1980s, a period marked by the transition from a political monopoly by the ruling party to a more pluralistic party landscape. This genesis during the political dynamism of the 1980s positioned “civil society” as a symbol of participatory ideals and citizenship.1 Over time, the term in Tunisia became largely synonymous with the associative sector, overshadowing other forms of autonomous sociability and collective action, such as trade unions, professional organizations, clubs, and leisure-focused organizations. Far from being a neutral concept, “civil society” acquired a political charge, often tied to democratization efforts. The pre-2011 history of civil society in Tunisia was characterized by a persistent duality, with many associations navigating between authoritarian co-optation and the affirmation of citizenship.2 ) Created or co-opted by the Bourguiba and Ben Ali regimes, many associations served as tools for exerting control over society. Whether initiated from the top by incumbent authorities or fostered and directed by the State, numerous organizations became instruments of patronage and played a crucial role in bolstering and perpetuating authoritarian regimes from 1956 to 2011.3 In contrast to these were associations operating in domains deemed “politically sensitive,” advocating for public and individual freedoms. These groups championed causes ranging from human rights and women’s rights to the rights of unemployed graduates, political prisoners, children, migrants, and journalists. They stood against torture and violence towards women, reflecting a profound aspiration among individuals and social groups to expand realms of freedom. In their confrontation with the regime, they asserted their determination to transition from the status of subjects (ra'ya) to that of citizens.4 These independent groups played a key role in the January 2011 revolution and the subsequent transition. The post-2011 period was marked by a major upheaval in the legislative framework which facilitated the creation of numerous associations active in different fields and across different geographies. Given the active role of Tunisia’s civil society in the post-2011 transition, it is crucial to examine the underlying factors that have facilitated this active engagement. The substantial financial and technical support provided by both institutional and private donors has played a significant role. Nevertheless, this influx of support has also led to the emergence of an associative landscape heavily dependent on foreign funding and shaped by project-based approaches that, in one way or another, align with donor agendas. This approach, coupled with a project-cycle funding model, has left little room for associations to develop their own long-term agendas and strategies, thus weakening their community connections. Furthermore, it has widened the existing gap between well-established civil society associations with strong connections in the capital city of Tunis and smaller, mainly service-oriented organizations, in peripheral and rural regions. Over more than half a century, the trajectory of civil society in Tunisia has been shaped by professionalization, which stands as the main dividing factor between the pre- and post-2011 eras, between generations of activists, and, to some extent, between Tunis and the rest of the country. While professionalization empowered civic actors after 2011, it also paradoxically contributed to their vulnerability, as they found themselves increasingly targeted and delegitimized by populist discourse, which portrays them as “foreign-funded elites” that are a threat to national sovereignty. However, this fragility is not solely a product of populism. It also stems from the multiple internal cleavages that cut across civil society and from a conception of democracy that ultimately failed to consolidate. This paper aims to provide insights into Tunisia's civil society landscape, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses. It will underscore its notable achievements, such as active participation over the past decade in the drafting of the 2014 constitution, the transitional justice law, and anti-racism legislation. However, it also examines missed opportunities and obstacles that have contributed to the current situation, including the resurgence of authoritarianism and the repressive measures imposed by President Kais Saied on dissenting voices, including civil society organizations (CSOs).
Topic:
Civil Society, Mobilization, Activism, and Kais Saied
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

2404. Beyond Scarcity: Social Inequality and the Politics of Water in Morocco

Author:
Zakaria Ibrahimi
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Water in Morocco is a political issue, as it is in most human societies, but it also presents itself primarily as a cultural and social one.1 The history of Moroccan society and the structure of its social and cultural institutions can be unreservedly characterized as shaped by water. This is due to facts confirmed by historical texts on Morocco, which document, for example, conflicts between Moroccan tribes over water, pastures, and all water-related resources.2 Others reveal the position of water in the policies of the Moroccan state throughout its history. Writings on the history of famines and epidemics also showed the role that water played in the demographic, social, cultural, and political changes that the country experienced throughout its history after each drought year.3 Perhaps this is what prompted General Lyautey, one of the founders of the French Protectorate, to say, "To rule in Morocco is to rain." Researchers on Morocco's political affairs, including Rémy Leveau, draw attention to the role that water played in establishing and legitimizing governance in Morocco.4 Equally, historian Abdallah Laroui revealed the succession of political unrest in Morocco after each drought year.5 The issue of water in Morocco is not and has never been a natural one. Rather, it has always been a public and collective issue, one that has shaped and organized most Moroccan institutions and through which social inequalities have emerged. This is why many Moroccan researchers did not find it awkward to distinguish between state water and community water, between sacred water and ordinary water, between water of God and water of the state, etc. These binaries emerged historically through the water policies adopted by Morocco from at least 1914 until today following the introduction of the first law under the French Protectorate, which refers to state ownership of water and natural resources and prohibits all forms of collective ownership by tribes, groups, and individuals who historically considered water to be the property of the group and an integral part of its identity and social organization, and have collectively built systems, sites, and authorities to regulate water and its distribution and to settle conflicts over it. Water has been used in the contemporary Moroccan state as a direct source for building the legitimacy of the political system, legitimizing some of the economic and political choices on which the post-independence state was built, penetrating political elites, and excluding others from any political ambitions.6 Therefore, the political economy on which the post-independence state was built, which favored agriculture and ensuring food security in a society living under an accelerated demographic transition, put in one way or another water and water-related policies in a central position. This paper seeks to uncover the political character of water in Morocco, and how discourses on water have evolved in recent decades, moving from a discourse of abundance to one of scarcity, from the water of God to the water of the state, of the community, and of the engineer, as well as the transformation of water within the current public space into a resource for struggle, protest discourses, temporary waves of discontent, and one of the key elements of contestation in various Moroccan spheres.
Topic:
Environment, Water, Inequality, and Scarcity
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

2405. Cybercrime against Women in Yemen: Legal frameworks and social change

Author:
Monia Mohammed
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
According to estimates issued for 2023, the number of Internet users in Yemen had reached over 9 million users, effectively more than a quarter of the country’s population. While such tremendous development of access to the internet has expanded opportunities for connection and communication, it has also come to pose significant risks in traditional or conservative societies like the one in Yemen. Indeed, this can be seen in the phenomenal increase in the rate of cybercrimes in Yemen, where a growing number of women have become the targets of blackmail and defamation through social media. The lack of clear legislation to curb this epidemic in a country already in the midst of a civil war has made it difficult to create deterrents or administer punishments commensurate with the seriousness of these crimes against women and their consequences on society as a whole. Yemeni legislation on cybercrime1 is largely limited to the protection of banking operations, specifically Law No. 40 on payment systems and electronic financial and banking operations, issued in 2006 by the Yemeni Legislature. This new legislation was based on a number of articles in the 1994 Crimes and Penalties Law, which refers to assaults on personal freedom or threats to broadcast private secrets, as well as other articles from sections criminalizing wrongful injury, violation of privacy, and blackmail.2 In most cases of cybercrime, therefore, these latter articles, in addition to Law No. 13 of the Criminal Procedures Legislation, are applied as a kind of partial remedy. The lack of a comprehensive legal framework is coupled with a lack of adequate capacity to deal with the growing scourge of cybercrime. Yemeni legislators have failed to add amendments and updates to the legal system to deal with the growing number of cases of online harassment, blackmail, and violation of privacy affecting women in Yemen. Recognizing the gravity of cybercrime, as well as the extent to which women are disproportionately its victims, is crucial to remedying this legislative vacuum. This paper will describe the reality of Yemeni women when it comes to cybercrime by detailing cases of cyber extortion, the role played by the family and society, as well as the types of perpetrators. It will also address the state’s efforts at dealing with such cases in light of the prevailing legislative vacuum and deteriorating security situation that adversely impacts girls and women and often places the blame on them. How do the security and judicial authorities deal with victims, what is the role of state institutions in confronting cybercrime, and what role do feminist movements and advocacy campaigns play in pressuring decision-makers to find solutions to such crimes, which are relatively new to Yemeni society?
Topic:
Crime, Women, Cybersecurity, and Internet
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

2406. Tunisia’s Climate Justice Movement

Author:
Mariem Madhi
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
As a hotspot for climate change risks, Tunisia faces pressing challenges. One of the most water-scarce countries in the world, Tunisia ranks 20th globally in water stress.1 In 2023, the country's per capita water availability was just 400 cubic meters annually, well below the 1000 cubic meters threshold for water poverty set by the UN. Climate change is projected to decrease rainfall by up to 30% by 2050,2 impacting agriculture, which contributes 9% to the country's GDP and employs 16% of the workforce.3 Coastal zones will likely experience rising sea levels, increased temperature, salinity, and acidity, causing significant impacts, including loss of urban areas, infrastructure, and ecosystem degradation. Over 3100 hectares of urban land are at risk of submersion, and 44% of the coastline is highly vulnerable to these effects. The tourism sector faces significant threats from coastal erosion and sea-level rise, with an estimated loss of 1000 jobs per year by 2030.4 Climate change will increase vector-borne, water-borne, and food-borne diseases, exacerbate air pollution-related health issues, and raise the risk of floods damaging infrastructure. These effects are already being felt. In the Kerkennah Islands off the east coast of the mainland, for example, local fishermen are facing declining fish stocks and increasing water salinity due to climate change, jeopardizing their livelihoods – a case that shows how climate change disproportionately impacts marginalized groups and underscores the urgent need for policies that address both ecological challenges and social inequities (Hafsi and Azouni, 2024).5 Most research to date on Tunisia’s climate politics has focused on governmental policies to address climate challenges. This study turns instead to the role of grassroots activism, particularly youth movements and civil society organizations (CSOs), in shaping Tunisia’s post-revolution climate actions. Through the lens of social movement theory, we investigate two central questions: How have grassroots movements shaped environmental governance in Tunisia following the revolution? How does Tunisian civil society engage international climate frameworks to influence local climate actions in Tunisia?
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Activism, and Climate Justice
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

2407. Egypt's Takaful and Karama program: Caught between reality and uneven evaluations

Author:
Mostafa Shehata
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Evaluations of social protection programs funded by the World Bank and the Egyptian government continue to focus on achievements while neglecting to calculate the impact of the programs themselves on changing poverty rates among Egyptians. Evaluations from independent think tanks may be better viewed as they discuss the achievements and outcomes of protection programs as opposed to the initial intentions of the programs.1 Egypt adopted an economic reform program in 2014 to close the budget deficit, which resulted in an economic crisis that increased the country's need for foreign exchange. Egypt entered a cycle of successive borrowing and inflation until the time of writing this paper. The Egyptian economic program was accompanied by rising prices in general and food commodities in particular, leading to an increase in the level of inability of poor families to cope with these increases. Despite this, the Egyptian government continues to implement economic reforms that it pledged to its lenders, led by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by reducing the size of subsidies and increasing the number of families benefiting from social protection programs. The World Bank provided a $400 million initiative to the Egyptian government to protect the most vulnerable, and through the Ministry of Social Solidarity, the social protection program “Takaful and Karama” was launched. Throughout the years of implementing Takaful and Karama, the Egyptian government has tried to avoid the issues of previous subsidy programs, especially those related to not reaching the actual beneficiaries. After years of providing in-kind support through many programs, most notably the commodity subsidy (Tamween), in which more than 60 million people are registered, the government tried to expand the use of cash transfers through the Takaful and Karama program to ensure that the support reaches the target groups. The results of multiple evaluations conducted on social protection programs, specifically Takaful and Karama, reflect the varying extent to which the programs show success or achievement of some targets and failure in others, depending on the evaluator and the evaluation criteria adopted.
Topic:
World Bank, Reform, Economy, Public Policy, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

2408. Lebanon’s Climate Actors

Author:
Karen-Jo Mourad Karam and Mariem Madhi
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Due to its geographic location and socio-political landscape, Lebanon is particularly vulnerable to climate change and is already experiencing its impact. Increasing temperatures, declining rainfall, and prolonged droughts and heatwaves are degrading the country’s natural resources and people’s health and livelihood. Further exacerbating the country’s vulnerability to climate change are rapid urbanization, political instability, fragmented governance, war, and ongoing economic and financial crisis – all of which hinder effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. To confront these challenges, and in an attempt to fill the gaps left by governmental inaction, Lebanese civil society organizations (CSOs) and activists are increasingly engaging with climate governance. Based on interviews with 16 of the main CSO actors involved in climate activism and advocacy in Lebanon, this brief delineates the landscape of climate activism identifying the actors involved, their demands, the challenges they face, their policy impact to date, and opportunities for progress.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Civil Society Organizations, and Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2409. Drug Control in Tunisia: Between Criminalization and Public Health Challenges

Author:
Eya Hariz
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This paper aims to critically analyze the stages of Tunisia's anti-drug policy. In the first part, the paper traces the transformations of this policy and how its effects produced a social issue that prompted actors and decision-makers to treat it as a public issue requiring intervention. The second section examines the impact of the criminalization policy in exacerbating the phenomenon of drug use and addiction and disrupting its treatment as a public health issue. It then looks at the impact of this situation on addressing the phenomenon and ensuring justice in the legal and medical treatment of the issue. The study adopted a participatory observation methodology, including field observations in a rehabilitation center in Tunisia and in associations specialized in addiction, as well as attending workshops and meetings on the topic. The study also relied on interviews with various stakeholders to complement the field research.
Topic:
Training, Public Policy, Public Health, and Drug Policy
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

2410. Toward Inclusive Climate Action in Jordan

Author:
Hussam Hussein
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Jordan’s vulnerability to climate change and its reliance on external resources make it a key case study for understanding how inclusive approaches can drive meaningful climate action. This report explores Jordan’s evolving climate action landscape, focusing on grassroots mobilization and institutional engagement. It takes an inclusive approach and is rooted in research-based evidence that a participatory, rights-based approach can produce more effective, accountable, and legitimate outcomes. The insights derived from this report provide diverse recommendations for responding to barriers and opportunities for inclusive climate action.
Topic:
Civil Society, Environment, Water, Activism, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

2411. Syria’s Expanding but Fragile Civic Space: Opportunities and Risks in the Post-Assad Transition

Author:
Haid Haid
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The fall of the Assad regime triggered a marked expansion in civic space in Syria. Associations are registering with fewer obstacles, public gatherings have returned, and criticism of officials circulates more freely. Debate is part of daily life again, and people can question authority without the fear that once defined public behavior. Although the legal basis for these changes is still incomplete, the change represents a clear shift from decades of tight control and has enabled civic activity on a scale not seen in years. Yet progress is uneven and fragile. Access to information remains limited, participation in public affairs varies widely, and political parties are still suspended. Much of the new openness depends on political will rather than enforceable rights. Outdated laws still apply, and local authorities retain broad discretion. Civic space is wider in practice, but it lacks the structural safeguards needed to ensure that these gains endure. Syria’s civic environment is also not developing evenly across topics. Humanitarian work usually proceeds with little interference because it meets urgent needs and helps maintain stability. Political initiatives face much tighter oversight. Efforts related to reform, participation, accountability, or constitutional issues often meet higher barriers, stricter requirements, and attempts to reshape their content. In some cases, approvals are denied altogether, shutting down discussion before it begins. Geography further shapes civic opportunity. Safer areas, such as Damascus, allow more open engagement. Regions marked by fear, instability, or sectarian tension, including the coast, remain subdued. Local authorities differ in how they regulate civic activity: some use rigid controls, others permit informal practice, and some tighten restrictions as they consolidate power. The movement of activists across regions reinforces these contrasts, making geography a defining factor in how civic space expands or contracts. Openness has also shifted over time. The first months after the change in power were widely seen as a period of unusual openness, with a permissive atmosphere that allowed civic activity to flourish. As authorities reasserted control, oversight tightened, and approvals grew harder to obtain, especially for initiatives that did not fit official priorities or the roles envisioned for civic actors. Rising polarization and informal intimidation further narrowed the space, prompting self-censorship and fear. By mid-2025, growing mistrust and stricter controls pushed many activities into private or low-profile settings. Personalities also shape civic space. With unclear rules and overlapping mandates, outcomes often depend on individual officials. Some enforce old regulations rigidly, slowing or blocking activities, while others allow events to proceed informally. Well-connected or politically aligned organizers usually face fewer obstacles, while lesser-known groups encounter delays, cancellations, and tighter scrutiny. In this discretionary system, civic actors must decide whether to test limits or avoid them. The result is a fluid, uneven environment that leaves more critical or rights-focused groups especially exposed to unpredictable restrictions. Risk tolerance also shapes how civic actors navigate the transition. Those willing to test limits see legal ambiguity as an opportunity to expand space, using the moment to push boundaries. More cautious groups rely on formal procedures, over-complying when rules are unclear and steering clear of anything that might draw scrutiny. These choices often reflect differences in networks, resources, and perceived protection. The result is a mixed landscape shaped by both caution and boldness, where progress depends as much on personal risk appetite as on formal rules. Safeguarding and expanding civic space requires coordinated action across authorities, civic actors, and international partners. Authorities should halt enforcement of repressive laws, strengthen constitutional protections, modernize legislation governing civic life, and harmonize procedures nationwide. Civic actors should build coalitions, work with reform-minded officials, take the lead on legal reform, deepen civic education, and document violations. International partners must prioritize civic freedoms through their diplomacy, support institutional reform, offer flexible long-term funding, and integrate civic space into transition monitoring. Strengthening these foundations is essential to transform fragile openings into durable rights and prevent a slide back into controlled participation. Civic space cannot be treated as conditional. It requires strong legal foundations and consistent institutional support. Without these, public participation remains exposed to shifting political moods and personal discretion. Syria now faces a critical choice between returning to controlled engagement or embracing a genuinely open civic environment that supports diverse voices and democratic renewal. The decision will shape the credibility of the transition and the country’s long-term stability. Missing this moment would close off the very space Syrians need to rebuild their future on their own terms.
Topic:
Civil Society, Syrian War, Post-Conflict, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2412. Lebanon’s Energy Crisis in Context: Postwar Reconstruction and Political Fragmentation

Author:
Soha Mneimneh
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon has endured Israeli aggression for decades, most recently during the war that began in October 2023, which has completely destroyed seven towns and entire neighborhoods in at least 37 southern villages.1 The war has so far claimed over 4,000 lives, displaced approximately 870,000 people to date, and resulted in the destruction of around 361 buildings in Beirut.2 Beyond war casualties, the aggression has had profound implications for Lebanon’s political and institutional landscape. It has not only weakened Hezbollah’s activity across different locations and sectors (primarily in service delivery) but also reshaped the broader political arena.3 Since the ceasefire in October 2024, other major events have also altered the political landscape. A new president, Joseph Aoun, was elected on 9 January 2025, ending a more than two-year presidential vacuum. This was followed by the appointment of the new prime minister, Nawaf Salam, on 13 January 2025, and the formation of the Lebanese cabinet on 8 February 2025. While some view these changes with cautious optimism, others fear uncertainty, especially when it comes to the pace and outcome of reconstruction. The question that will mostly define the success or failure of this government is its ability to end the war and lead a credible reconstruction process. Reconstruction presents both a critical challenge and a rare opportunity to address Lebanon’s deep-rooted structural inequalities. A primary issue in this context is access to electricity, a basic service that has been unreliable for decades. The energy crisis, already existent, was exacerbated by the recent financial collapse, leaving the formal energy sector unable to provide consistent power to the majority of the Lebanese population.4 Decades of inadequate infrastructure, political paralysis, and economic instability have forced most people to rely on informal, costly, short-lived, and harmful energy sources, primarily neighborhood diesel generators operated by unofficial local providers.5 As stakeholders begin yet another postwar reconstruction process, they will need to address a complex web of governance issues, implement inclusive energy policies, and establish proper financing mechanisms to ensure a just and resilient energy transition. A primary financial enabler in this process is international aid.6 While foreign aid and loans offer an opportunity, past experiences have shown that without structural reform, visionary and strategic reconstruction, transparent national oversight, and clear mechanisms of accountability, aid risks reinforcing political clientelism and social inequalities rather than enabling equitable development.7 There is a need to challenge this reality by relying on energy-efficient reconstruction processes that integrate renewable energy into urban environments in order to reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports. This paper explores the challenges and opportunities for energy recovery in Lebanon’s postwar reconstruction by examining three interrelated components: (1) the actors involved in the energy sector and their fragmented strategies that influence energy provision across three timeframes (before the crises, during the current emergency, and in the near future); (2) energy-related planning regulations, with a focus on how existing and proposed laws shape the reconstruction of energy systems and the potential adoption, or hinderance, of sustainable technologies; and (3) the political economy and financial gaps in the current recovery process. It argues that Lebanon’s energy recovery must move beyond short-term fixes and rebuilding as was, and adopt a comprehensive reform agenda that integrates governance, legal, economic, and financial reforms.
Topic:
Politics, Reconstruction, Energy Crisis, Fragmentation, and Power Sector
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2413. Energy Transition Challenges in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region

Author:
Diana Kaissy
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Iraq faces formidable obstacles in shifting to a cleaner and more equitable energy system. In 2023, Iraq ranked third globally in gas flaring – behind Russia (~59 billion m³) and Iran (20.4 billion m³) – burning roughly 17 billion cubic meters of associated gas, according to the World Bank’s Global Gas Flaring Tracker.1 This flaring not only wastes potential fuel and revenue but also pollutes the air and exacerbates climate change. Most of this flaring involves associated gas produced alongside oil, which could be captured and utilized. Non‑associated flaring is comparatively minor and usually linked to operational upsets, so Iraq’s pervasive flaring is largely avoidable if policy and infrastructure gaps are addressed. A significant portion – around 20% of Iraq’s flared gas – comes from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region (KRG) in the north.2 Unlike in remote deserts, many KRG oil fields are near towns and villages, meaning local populations are heavily exposed. An estimated 1.19 million Iraqis (mostly in the north) live within 1 km of multiple flare sites, suffering elevated health risks​.3 These conditions underscore the environmental justice issues at stake: rural and minority communities near oil sites bear the brunt of pollution and health impacts​. In fact, Iraq flares more gas than it imports from Iran to power its electricity grid, underscoring an energy‑security paradox: the country wastes domestic gas while relying on costly imports. Beyond flaring, Iraq’s broader energy transition challenge stems from heavy dependence on oil for revenues and power generation, weak infrastructure for gas capture, and decades of conflict and underinvestment. Iraq’s national grid is underpowered and often supplemented by diesel generators, while renewable energy is only beginning to be introduced. Crucially, political fragmentation between Baghdad’s federal government and the KRG has led to disjointed energy policies. However, deeper than this territorial divide is the closed nature of Iraq’s energy policymaking. Decisions about oil and gas are dominated by a narrow set of actors with minimal parliamentary oversight and no comprehensive legal framework, creating a “limited access order” that hampers investment, transparency and regulatory enforcement across both federal Iraq and the KRG. This briefing focuses on Iraq’s main energy transition challenges and the power dynamics impeding progress, with a special lens on the KRG. It also examines implications for gas flaring policy and offers recommendations – including engaging regional coalitions – to advance a just energy transition, one that is fair, inclusive, and transparent.
Topic:
Environment, Politics, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

2414. Regulating a Pluralistic and Decarbonized Electricity Supply through Public Service Principles of Equity and Solidarity

Author:
Alix Chaplain and Éric Verdeil
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
“Chaos”, “individualism”, “waste of resources”: while some experts see the boom in Lebanon’s solar market — now exceeding 1.3 GW of installed capacity — as an opportunity for “energy transition”, others denounce the unequal, uncontrollable, and erratic nature of this phenomenon.1 Promoted by public authorities until 2020, then driven by the collapse of Électricité du Liban’s (EDL) production and the rising cost of diesel for generators, decentralized photovoltaic (PV) systems are accessible in Lebanon only to a privileged minority of the population. The public authorities currently insufficiently regulate this electricity service commodification. Indeed, the Decentralized Renewable Energy (DRE) Law 318/2023 provides electricity exchange mechanisms in a horizontal market and facilitates the development of renewable energies by encouraging private actor investment.2 The reform is based on the assumption that lower costs will ultimately automatically benefit all households. However, this seems unrealistic, leaving social justice out of reach in the current state of affairs. This policy brief aims to reflect on the development of a structurally pluralistic and decarbonized electricity supply, where public infrastructure is the main tool for mutualization and equity. To be effective, it requires the definition and implementation of public service principles. The great heterogeneity in electricity supply — combining the grid, generators, and renewable energies — requires a rethink in public service. It can no longer be based on the principles of a uniform service and equal user treatment that characterize conventional grid-based services. 3 Instead, it should be based on universal and equitable access to a diversified and increasingly decarbonized service. In supplying a public service, solidarity between users is key. Solidarity is socio-technical, involving pooling, sharing, and regulating between a wide range of systems that optimize national supply from an economic, technical, and environmental perspective. But solidarity above all is socio-political, with public services theoretically embodying equity and socio-spatial integration among citizen-users, thereby giving substance to fundamental rights inherent to national solidarity and citizenship in Lebanon. Our proposal is therefore to rethink these principles of public service, considering the electrical transformations currently underway in Lebanon. This work is based on the doctoral thesis defended by Alix Chaplain in 2023 and comparative research carried out as part of the Hybridelec project coordinated by Eric Verdeil and Sylvy Jaglin, updated with recent data.4
Topic:
Environment, Electricity, Public Service, Decarbonization, Equity, and Power Sector
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2415. Pathways for Energy Justice in Lebanon’s Post-war Reconstruction

Author:
Yasmina El Amine
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This study evaluates Lebanon’s energy needs for postwar reconstruction through the framework of the energy trilemma – security, sustainability, and affordability – while incorporating a fourth pillar of resilience to reflect the conflict and post-conflict context. It analyses patterns of destruction and damage in the energy sector, examining impacts on the national grid, decentralized communal renewable systems, and household renewable energy. Methodologically, the study draws on stakeholder interviews with municipal actors, energy experts, donors, renewable energy providers, journalists, and civil society organizations to capture both institutional perspectives and local experiences. Site visits were conducted during the month of March 2025 to 10 locations in the south of Lebanon and Bekaa (see section 4) where interviews were conducted with municipal actors, the electricity utility EDL, the private company Mrad Electric tasked with grid repairs, and solar distributers and installers to get preliminary insights on the extent of damage and reconstruction progress and related challenges. Following that, 15 in-depth interviews with energy experts, donors, journalists, and civil society actors provided additional perspectives on the destruction and reconstruction processes, as well as on the potential integration of renewable energy and energy justice into the broader reconstruction framework. Complementary sources of secondary data were also consulted, compiled by the founder of Takom Energy and the LSES, who provided mappings of municipal renewable energy systems for water projects and electricity. The study further assesses secondary data from CNRS-L of satellite imagery analysis to evaluate the overall destruction of solar infrastructure (including household level) across the Bekaa and south Lebanon, offering regional insight into the scale and intensity of damages. This report also engages in a critical analysis of existing policy and regulatory frameworks to identify structural gaps, implementation barriers, and opportunities for reform. In parallel, it examines donor strategies and international recovery frameworks, with a focus on how financing instruments, conditionalities, and reconstruction priorities are shaping the postwar energy agenda. By integrating these dimensions, the study not only assesses the material impacts of the war on Lebanon’s energy sector but also interrogates the political, financial, and institutional dynamics that will influence reconstruction outcomes and the sector’s recovery. Ultimately, it seeks to provide evidence-based, justice-oriented policy recommendations to support a more equitable, resilient, and sustainable energy future.
Topic:
Reconstruction, Sustainability, Armed Conflict, Energy, Power Sector, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2416. Unlocking Solar Energy Access in Lebanon through Innovative Finance and Blended Models

Author:
Nicolas Farhat
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon’s chronic electricity crisis has left citizens and businesses with only a few hours of daily power, forcing a reliance on costly private diesel generators. In the absence of public alternatives, solar adoption has grown rapidly since 2020. The rollout, however, has been fragmented and largely self-financed,1 leaving low-income households, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), and municipalities excluded from access. While solar offers a clean and viable alternative, the lack of enabling policies, regulations, and finance has meant that benefits remain concentrated among wealthier groups, undermining national recovery and energy justice. To address these gaps, Lebanon should adopt targeted financing solutions that make solar accessible to all segments of society. Priority actions include supporting microfinance institutions (MFIs) that extend small-scale loans for households, expanding blended finance vehicles such as SoLR& that can provide lease-to-own and rental packages for MSMEs, and developing risk-mitigated Public Private Partnership (PPP) frameworks that enable municipalities to host solar farms. In parallel, the government must reinstate tax and customs exemptions on solar equipment, issue the implementing decrees of the Distributed Renewable Energy Law, and operationalize credit- and risk-mitigation tools.
Topic:
Environment, Finance, Innovation, Solar Power, and Power Sector
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2417. Thirst for Water Justice in Tunisia

Author:
Yasser Souilmi
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This research explores the multifaceted landscape of water justice in Tunisia, a country experiencing chronic water scarcity, institutional fragmentation, and growing socio-political tensions over resource distribution. Through a justice-centered framework that includes distributive, procedural, recognition, and capabilities dimensions, the study examines how inequalities in water access and governance disproportionately affect rural populations, small farmers, and marginalized groups. By combining a desk review of legal, institutional, and policy studies, with empirical methods, this report uncovers the systemic power imbalances and political choices that shape Tunisia’s water priorities. It also highlights the limited influence of civil society organizations (CSOs) in formal policy making, despite critical advocacy efforts. Ultimately, this research argues that achieving water justice in Tunisia requires a shift away from technocratic and donor-driven solutions toward inclusive, context-sensitive governance that puts at its center equity, public participation, and community needs.
Topic:
Civil Society, Environment, Water, Inequality, and Transitional Justice
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

2418. Bridging the Energy Gap in Lebanon: Natural Gas, Renewables, and Regional Connectivity

Author:
Laury Haytayan
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon is still waiting for its own natural gas. Since the ratification of the offshore petroleum law in 2010,1 the country has been struggling to find gas. Political deadlocks led to institutional instability, a collapse in the financial and banking systems in the country, and international companies’ interests in bidding for exploration and production contracts. In this policy brief, I argue Lebanon can still pursue its strategy to attract international oil companies to invest in its offshore oil and gas sector under certain conditions; in addition, it should focus more on enabling the private sector to invest in renewable energies; and it should connect the country to major regional economic and energy projects to prevent it from economic isolation and being excluded from energy connectivity projects.
Topic:
Environment, Renewable Energy, Energy, Natural Gas, and Power Sector
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2419. Pathways Towards Food Sovereignty in Lebanon

Author:
Zeead Yaghi
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon faces a profound and compounding food crisis. According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) – an initiative comprised of 21 organizations and intergovernmental institutions to jointly classify the severity and magnitude of food insecurity and malnutrition – 1.26 million people in Lebanon are currently in crisis phase (IPC Phase 3), of whom 85,000 are in emergency phase (IPC Phase 4). This indicates an urgent need for humanitarian action.1 Syrian and Palestinian refugees are disproportionately affected, with 34% and 45%, respectively, in Phase 3 and above.2 The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Program (WFP) now consider Lebanon a “very high concern” hotspot for food insecurity, due to conflict escalation, displacement, and economic deterioration.3 The roots of this crisis are neither recent nor simply economic. They are entrenched in political legacies of colonial governance, neoliberal reforms, and a state structure that has repeatedly failed to support rural and agriculture development, persistently privileging an export-oriented agriculture sector over local needs. The obstacles impeding Lebanon’s path toward food sovereignty are shared across many states in the Global South: years of financial mismanagement and extractive developmental schemes that benefit a tiny local moneyed elite and global financial actors; physical challenges, such as the increased stress of climate change on local agricultural practices in the form of heat waves and droughts; and administrative and political blocks to major land reform that could democratize local farming. Over the past half-century, local policy makers, international experts, and major food business representatives molded Lebanon’s food system into one largely dependent on food imports for everyday consumption, while centering the agricultural sector on export-oriented products. These circumstances have undermined the food system’s ability to withstand financial, climate, and political shocks, subsequently diminishing the autonomy, livelihood, and political power of local growers. Furthermore, over the last two decades, Lebanon has witnessed the harms of climate change and a rise in temperatures, with fires, droughts, and dust storms becoming common occurrences. Lebanon is also located in a geopolitically tenuous region. To its South lies an ever-expansionist, intransigent, and militarized Israel whose latest war against the country decimated the urban fabric of its southern districts, killed thousands of people, and irreparably harmed thousands of acres of farming land in Lebanon’s fertile valleys to the East and South. Israeli actions have also repeatedly threatened Lebanon’s water security.4 Lastly, Lebanon is yet to emerge from a six-year financial crisis brought on by its kleptocratic political class, and which has decimated the middle and working classes, diluted their purchasing power, and made them more dependent on imports for sustenance.5 At the same time, in response to deepening precarity, food sovereignty initiatives and grassroots movements are emerging in Lebanon – as they are globally – to try to retain control over food systems through resistance, innovation, and advocacy. This study highlights the difficulties facing farmers and food sovereignty activists in organizing a coherent and influential political bloc, due to fragmented efforts, structural political obstacles, limited resources, and a lack of institutional support. A particular focus is placed on governance and accountability mechanisms, both within the Lebanese government and among international financial institutions and other key stakeholders. Attention is given to the availability and transparency of information on food-related projects and initiatives, as well as the roles and responsibilities of different actors in shaping policy and implementation. The research argues that a food-sovereign system that centers local producers is internally self-sufficient, provides dignified wages for farmers, satisfies local market needs, and is durable and adaptable to climate change – imperative for food security. To make progress on food sovereignty, farmers, advocacy groups across the political spectrum, as well as experts, educators, and civil society organizations must organize at the local, municipal, national, and regional levels into an effective political block capable of challenging the status quo, forcing their demands on the state, and ensuring the sovereignty of farmers. Moving beyond food security toward food sovereignty, Lebanon must invest in land reform, support grassroots cooperatives, and resist donor-driven input models. Only by returning power to producers and communities can the country build an adaptive, robust, just, and sovereign food system.
Topic:
Environment, Food Security, and Food Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2420. Food Sovereignty and the Just Transition in Tunisia

Author:
Imen Louati
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Tunisian revolution of 2011 was the result of decades of economic inequality and social injustice. The unequal distribution of wealth – combined with the neoliberal policies and austerity regimes enforced by international financial institutions – created an increasingly unstable situation and led to social unrest. The impoverishment of the peasantry and the working class, together with misguided agricultural reforms that increased the price of several foodstuffs and the marginalization of the country’s interior, were the main reasons for much of society’s dissatisfaction with the regime of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.1 ,2 Underlying this crisis was the regime’s farm policy, which favored large-scale agriculture over small-scale farming and engaged in land-grabbing practices. In fact, it was the frustration of Tunisia’s rural poor that sparked the uprisings, which first began in the regionally dominant farming governorate of Sidi Bouzid, progressing through rural governorates before finally breaking into cities and ultimately the capital. This trajectory highlights that while demands for political freedoms were a factor, social and economic issues, and in particular rural ones, lay at the source of the unrest.3 In the post-revolution period, however, political and identity-based concerns have saturated discourse and policy, overshadowing the agricultural and rural dimensions that drove the initial rebellion. Neither government policy nor any political party platforms have addressed agricultural and rural issues comprehensively, as evidenced by the continued application of imported paradigms of agricultural development.4 In contrast, civil society organizations (CSOs), progressive researchers, and unionists are increasingly recognizing the centrality of agriculture in the implementation of development policies; they are increasingly inclined toward the international movement around the rights of people in rural areas, as well as toward climate issues and green transition. This report intervenes in this space by deepening the discussion around how food sovereignty could be realized in the Tunisian context. The study asks: How can Tunisia meet the interconnected challenges of climate change, globalization, and national governance to transform its agrifood system to a more sustainable and just system? It offers an original examination of Tunisian food systems and comprehensive analyses of existing governance and policy frameworks. It also broadly highlights the crucial contributions of unions, activists, and civil society, which have not been explored to date. This approach uncovers unique opportunities and challenges to implementing food sovereignty in Tunisia and highlights innovative areas for policy change that can contribute to a sustainable and inclusive agrifood system for Tunisia, particularly considering the escalating climate crisis.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Inequality, Food Sovereignty, and Agricultural Policy
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

2421. Mainstreaming Transitional Justice in Syria: A Proposal for Ministerial Integration

Author:
Mansour Omari
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The establishment of Syria's National Commission for Transitional Justice (NCTJ) on 17 May 2025 marks a crucial step in the country’s pursuit of transitional justice. However, given the immense scope of past violations, the widespread destruction and damage across the country, and the large number of affected individuals, a singular, centralized commission is insufficient. To better address the legacy of systemic abuses, it is imperative to integrate transitional justice operations directly into the fabric of governance. This paper argues for a whole-of-government approach by establishing a dedicated transitional justice (TJ) office or focal point within every relevant ministry. This approach transcends traditional, centralized mechanisms, aiming to embed accountability, reconciliation, and victim-centered processes directly into policy-making and service delivery. This paper outlines the potential functions of these ministerial units, details the necessary conditions for their success, and argues that this transformative stride is essential for effective transitional justice implementation. The rationale for a whole-of-government approach is multifaceted. Firstly, abuses during the conflict were not confined to specific security forces but permeated various state apparatuses, including those responsible for healthcare, education, and property. Addressing these, therefore, requires a sector-specific understanding and response. Secondly, it fosters a culture of accountability and human rights within the bureaucracy itself, thereby preventing future abuses. Thirdly, it ensures that policy-making and service delivery are inherently informed by the imperative of non-repetition of violations and victim redress. It also makes a case for why this integrated approach is essential to rebuilding citizen trust in the state apparatus and preventing the recurrence of abuses. Nearly every ministry, irrespective of its primary function, has a role to play in transitional justice. Consequently, a Transitional Justice Integration Unit (TJIU), or a designated focal point, should be established within each ministry, reporting directly to and coordinating with the Minister or Deputy Minister, as well as the NCTJ. These units would ideally be staffed by individuals possessing expertise in human rights, law, social sciences, and crucially, a nuanced understanding of the specific ministry's operations and its historical context within the conflict. The establishment of these units should be mandated by a legal framework from the government in consultation with the NCTJ and other experts, which would also lead the training and capacity building for the TJIU staff to ensure a consistent approach across all ministries.
Topic:
Government, Transitional Justice, Syrian War, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2422. Beyond a Technocratic Solution: Iraqi Farmers and Local Climate Adaptation

Author:
Taif Alkhudary
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The government of Iraq and international organizations operating in the country have taken a technocratic approach to climate change adaptation. In the agricultural sector, the government has provided incentives for farmers to adopt sustainable farming methods in the form of subsidies and loans for the purchase of drip irrigation systems and solar panels. The government also buys wheat at a slightly higher price from farmers who use sustainable farming techniques. For their part, international organizations have both shaped the Iraqi government’s policies on climate adaptation and equipped small numbers of farmers with solar and drip irrigation systems. They have also endeavored to provide training to farmers in sustainable farming techniques and in maintaining renewable energy systems. These technical approaches have failed to address the socio-economic inequalities and political hierarchies that farmers must navigate to practice agriculture, and which makes some social groups more vulnerable to climate change than others. Many farmers cannot afford to take out loans to purchase sustainable agricultural systems and corruption at various levels continues to hamper the efforts of both international organizations and the Iraqi government, limiting the effectiveness of these schemes. Moreover, the post-2003 neoliberalization of the Iraqi economy and the fact that the country’s political elite and affiliated militias have captured the agricultural sector has left Iraqi farmers without a market for their produce. In response, Iraqi farmers have adopted unstructured, spontaneous local adaptation strategies to try to navigate extreme weather conditions, political corruption, and neoliberalism. For example, to manage water scarcity, farmers have begun to dig wells and use groundwater for irrigation purposes. While well-digging risks depleting groundwater reserves, it is also a means for farmers to circumvent centralized, regularly politicized water allocations. In the face of extreme weather events, farmers have begun to grow new types of drought-resistant crops, planting more than one type of produce, so that if a particular crop fails during a season, they are still able to harvest and sell others. Yet often, they select crops they believe will be better able to compete with cheap imports from neighboring states. Iraqi farmers’ adaptation strategies point to the need to move away from mere technical solutions and to challenge existing structures in a bid to achieve transformative adaptation; that is, a system-wide transformation that addresses the root-causes of vulnerabilities to climate change, taking into consideration socio-economic factors and a fairer distribution of political, cultural, and institutional power in society.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Farming, Technocracy, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

2423. Powering a Fair Future: Centering Communities in Lebanon’s Just Energy Transition

Author:
Pierre Saade
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This policy brief is intended to inform Lebanese policy-makers, civil society organizations, and development partners about the critical importance of embedding justice, equity, and community participation into Lebanon’s energy transition. It aims to provide actionable recommendations that support the implementation of inclusive energy reforms, particularly in the context of post-crisis recovery, and to advocate for a decentralized, people-centered approach that strengthens local resilience, reduces dependency on polluting sources, and advances national energy goals. This brief argues that Lebanon can achieve a just transition and initiate energy reforms by adopting an inclusive, community-centered approach. This entails fully implementing the Distributed Renewable Energy Law and expediting the endorsement of the draft Energy Efficiency Law.1 By focusing on decentralized solutions, equitable access, institutional reform, and robust community participation, Lebanon can transform its energy sector, reduce emissions, alleviate financial burdens on citizens and the state, and foster sustainable development.
Topic:
Civil Society, Reform, Energy Transition, and Power Sector
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2424. Environmentalism and Disenchantment in a Destabilizing World: The Case of Lebanon

Author:
Sammy Kayed
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This study interrogates environmentalism as a concept and contemporary practice in Lebanon by tracing how actors are positioned in relation to the Lebanese state when navigating changemaking, abandonment, and the imperative of persistence. It understands environmentalism as emerging from socio‑ecological transformation and as fundamentally different from environmentalization, which arises from reproductions within the current order—namely today’s variations of neoliberal capitalism and the prevailing everyday mindset treating it as the most reasonable way to live.1 Lebanon’s current order is organized around a sectarian form of aggressive neoliberal capitalism—marked by puzzling tendencies such as championing free markets while selectively shaping them to serve entrenched power.2 The study highlights how prefigurative politics—the enactment of desired futures by meeting everyday material needs for persistence—is emerging from Lebanon’s political margins3 and can give way to environmentalism.
Topic:
Civil Society, Environment, Destabilization, Activism, and Environmentalism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2425. Improving the Framework for Renewable Energy in Lebanon: Innovative Policies for Wheeling, Decentralized Energy Markets, and Carbon Offsetting

Author:
Sorina Mortada
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon’s energy sector suffers from fuel dependency, grid inefficiencies, and delayed reforms, despite legal progress through Laws 462/2002 and 318/2023. To address these challenges and enable a sustainable transition, this brief proposes standardized energy wheeling tariffs, blockchain-enabled peer-to-peer trading, and integration with carbon markets. Priority actions include cost-reflective tariffs and regulatory sandboxes to attract investment, improve resilience, and reduce reliance on diesel.
Topic:
Innovation, Renewable Energy, Decentralization, Carbon Emissions, Power Sector, and Energy Markets
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2426. USAID cuts and its effect on Africa’s healthcare system

Author:
Vera Kum
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Over the years, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has been veryinstrumental in combatting extreme poverty, promoting resilient democratic societies, andadvancing socio-economic development globally. In doing this, it contributes to advance itssecurity and prosperity via foreign aid that promotes national security by helping to combatconditions that can spawn terrorism – such as poverty, weak institutions and corruption. It realizesthis by promoting economic development, good governance and transparency in foreign countries(including African countries), thereby helping to safeguard the security and prosperity of the UnitedStates. USAID is important because it contributes to sustainable development that helps increating stronger economies in Africa and other less-developed regions worldwide. A rundown ofUSAID impact around the world includes protecting the Amazone rainforest, fighting cocaine inSouth America and engaging in disease response, girls’ education and free school lunches inAfrica. Last year, the US gave the Sub-Saharan African region more than 6.5 billion dollars inhumanitarian assistance [1] . It has supported marginalised communities from the Balkans toUganda, the media in Myanmar and mine clearance in Cambodia. In Africa alone, publication bythe US embassy, reveals that since 2021, the US has committed to providing nearly US$20 billionin health programmes. In all, the US dedicates approximately 70% of its annual aid budget to health programs in Africa, totaling around $5.6 billion [2]. Following Donald Trump’s enthronementto power, there have been drastic cuts in USAID funding through the signing of more than 50executive orders affecting other areas domestically and abroad [3] . Most important for Africa is hismove to cut US development assistance and reduce efforts to combat corruption, HIV/AIDS,tuberculosis, and other communicable diseases – which, to a considerable extent, will have someoverarching effects on Africa’s health system. Anchored within the paradigm of the politics ofdevelopment assistance, this article proposes to tease out some of the burning issues thatresonate from the drastic cuts of USAID funding within Africa’s healthcare system. The rest of thearticle is structured as follows: Part two presents a summary of USAID cuts and their impact onglobal development. It proceeds to analyse its impact on Africa’s healthcare system, and sectionthree presents some groundbreaking recommendations and strategies for the future of Africa’s healthcare system.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, USAID, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
Africa

2427. Enhancing Business Formalization through E- Governmentin ECCAS

Author:
Larissa Ntoubia and Adeline Nembot
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), established in 1983, is essential infostering regional development. The ECCAS promotes regional economic integration andeconomic development in the economic landscape of the central African region. However, theregion still faces several challenges such as the predominant informal economy which is anobstacle to economic growth, tax revenue generation, and the provision of public goods andservices. In Cameroon for instance, more than 90% of the workforce is employed in the informalsector and contribute more than 57% of the GDP ( 1 ). Business formalization is associated withincreased economic growth, market access, job creation, and government income throughtaxation. However, this transition from informal to the formal sector has several challenges suchas complex bureaucratic procedures, high registration cost, and lack of trust in governmentinstitutions ( 2 ). E-government is the use of digital technology to facilitate interactions betweengovernment, business, and citizens. It has the potential to eliminate the above barriers, throughreducing the cost and time to interact with the government, increasing transparency, and reducingcorruption. This will make it easier for business to access registration and comply with the law. The objective of this paper is to explore how e-government initiatives can enhance businessformalization in the ECCAS region. The study targets policymakers, regional organizations,development partners, researchers, and business leaders. The paper is structured in to threesections first we have; the current state of business formalization in the ECCAS region, secondlywe look at the barriers to business formalization the ECASS region, lastly we examine the role ofe-government in reducing barriers to business formalization, and provide policy recommendationsto foster a more conducive environment for formalization through e-governance.
Topic:
Economy, Business, E-Government, and Regional Development
Political Geography:
Africa

2428. Tariff Wars: Strategies to Prevent Economic Marginalizationof Africa

Author:
Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The global economy is showing signs of structural slowdown. Global inflation is declining (from6.8% in 2023 to an expected 4.5% in 2025), and medium-term growth has plateaued around3.1%, a historically low level . Concurrently, « geoeconomic fragmentation » is intensifying—definedby the IMF as a policy-driven reversal of global economic integration. Protectionist measures aremultiplying at an unprecedented rate: nearly 3,000 new trade barriers were imposed in 2023, triplethe number in 2019. This surge in restrictions jeopardizes the economic architecture thatpreviously lifted 1.5 billion people out of poverty over recent decades . For low- and middle-incomeAfrican countries, these trends pose a dual challenge: firstly, their economies remain heavilyreliant on commodity prices (accounting for approximately 76% of exports in 2023) and strugglewith diversification; secondly, they face growing pressures on public finances due to mountingdebt. Specifically, external refinancing needs have tripled in a decade, reaching nearly USD 60 billion annually , while debt servicing now consumes over 12% of public revenue on average in sub-Saharan Africa. These constrained fiscal resources severely limit capacities for productiveinvestment and social policies. Thus, the critical question is: How can these vulnerable economiesmaintain access to international markets while fostering sustainable development?
Topic:
Economics, Tariffs, Inflation, Marginalization, Geoeconomics, and Global Economy
Political Geography:
Africa

2429. Addressing Policy Issues to Support Women’s EconomicEmpowerment in the Care Economy in Cameroon

Author:
Nkafu Policy Institute
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Cameroon is a middle-income country with a population of more than 29.4 million [1] . It ranked117 out of 146 in the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index in 2021 [2], indicating asignificant gender gap. With an increasing global focus on women’s empowerment, Cameroonhas made strong policy commitments and developed sound policy measures to support Women’sEconomic Empowerment (WEE), backed by changes in macroeconomic frameworks to enable aninclusive approach to economic growth [3]. Nevertheless, gender equality cannot be taken forgranted and needs sustained attention in policy formulation and implementation. More womenhave been moving into paid work and increasingly leadership positions, yet globally, societalexpectations, employer policies, the legal environment and the availability of care continue to playan important role in the choice of educational tracks and career paths for these women. Womenremain disadvantaged at all levels of economic empowerment, especially in access to decentlivelihoods, resource ownership, infrastructure, and services to meet their productive, reproductive, and household needs. This article seeks to address various policy issues required tosupport women’s economic empowerment within the care economy in Cameroon. Thesubsequent sections consist of the Care Economy and Women’s Economic Empowerment, somechallenges and barriers women encounter in terms of economic empowerment, and policychallenges affecting WEE and the care economy. This is followed by a variety of policyrecommendations and future directions.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Empowerment, and Care Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

2430. Inflation Threatens Food Security in Cameroon: NavigatingChallenges in a Context of Poly-crisis

Author:
Adeline Nembot and Larissa Ntoubia Ngapmen
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Despite the government’s price-stabilizing efforts, such as putting a ban on cereal’s exportation in2021, subsidies and tax exemptions in 2023, and promotional sales on widely consumedproducts, the cost of food in Cameroon has not dropped. In fact, food prices in January 2025 stillstood at a 7.90% increase over the same month in the previous year. Mostly driven by foodinflation, the overall level of inflation in 2024 still reached 4.5%, above the Central AfricanEconomic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) threshold of 3%. As a result, the country isprogressively diving into significant food shortage caused by persistent inflation coupled withconflicts, displacing populations, and severe flooding, affecting agricultural production. Accordingto the 2024 Cadre Harmonisé Report, 5,637,855 (20.27%) and around 3 million (11%) people inCameroon faced moderate and severe food and nutritional insecurity, respectively, between March and October 2024 , a 5% increase compared to the same period in 2022.
Topic:
Food Security, Crisis Management, Inflation, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

2431. Optimizing Trade Flows and Investments Between India andCEMAC for Sustainable Industrialization in the Region

Author:
Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Despite significant economic potential, CEMAC countries face structural and institutionalchallenges limiting sector diversification and competitiveness. Key constraints include inadequateinfrastructure, regulatory barriers, limited technological access, and institutional uncertainty, all ofwhich restrict industrial growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) ( 1 ). Trade between India and CEMAC, largely focused on raw materials, particularly crude oil, remainsunderdeveloped compared to its full potential. Similarly, Indian FDI, mostly resource-driven, isinsufficiently utilized. This brief proposes concrete strategies—drawing from endogenous growthand international trade theories—to address these barriers, enhance bilateral cooperation,encourage technology transfers, and promote robust public-private partnerships. Such measurescould significantly boost sustainable industrialization and global competitiveness in CEMAC.
Topic:
Investment, Trade, Industrialization, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

2432. Improving public policy in resource-rich African countries byenhancing statistical capacity

Author:
Vessah Mbouombouo Salim Ahmed
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Natural resource-rich African countries, such as Nigeria, Angola, and the Democratic Republic ofCongo, are endowed with significant mineral, oil, and gas deposits. However, these resourceshave not consistently led to inclusive and sustainable development . The ongoing failure to convertnatural wealth into economic and social progress is largely attributed to the inefficiency of thepublic policies implemented. Often poorly targeted, insufficiently coordinated, or based oninadequate data, these policies struggle to address the real needs of populations and to anticipatethe structural challenges of development. A persistent structural weakness in these public policiesis the low statistical capacity, which limits the quality, availability, and use of data necessary fordesigning and evaluating effective public policies.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Public Policy, Statistics, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:
Africa

2433. BRICS+ and the Global Game of International Law:Navigating Multilateral World Order and Soft PowerStrategies

Author:
Angelo Khumalo
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The basic nature of global governance and a feature of realism is that states are always propelledto act according to their interests and try to dominate global politics. International law attempts tomitigate this effect (1) . Technically speaking, there is no set way the law can be enforced beyondthe barriers of countries, so international law regulates universal domains such as human rights,trade, and diplomacy through customs, agreements, contracts, treaties, and institutions like theUnited Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) (2) .
Topic:
International Law, Multilateralism, Soft Power, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2434. Assessing Access to Legal Representation for Unaccompanied Migrant Children: National, State, and County-Level Analysis of Free- and Low-Cost Attorney Prevalence in Relation to Children’s Locations

Author:
Jill M. Williams
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
This study presents the first effort to assess unaccompanied migrant children’s access to free and low-cost attorneys in the United States at the national, state, and county levels. Since 2021, over 544,000 unaccompanied children have entered the United States and been apprehended along the southwest border. The vast majority of these children are transferred to the Office of Refugee Resettlement and released to sponsors across the country while their immigration cases are processed. While unaccompanied children are not guaranteed the right to government appointed counsel, a broad body of research indicates that having legal representation greatly increases the likelihood that a child will identify a form of legal relief and will have a legal outcome that allows them to remain in the country. Access to legal representation additionally connects children with trusted adults and increases opportunities to identify and address instances where children are being abused or exploited. However, a large percentage of unaccompanied children still lack legal representation. To date, little research has explored the factors that support or inhibit unaccompanied children’s access to representation. This study draws on research that shows that geographic proximity to attorneys is one key factor affecting the likelihood that immigrants will obtain counsel and research that demonstrates dramatic unevenness in legal counsel nationally to assess the prevalence of free and low-cost immigration attorneys in relation to where unaccompanied children are released to sponsors. Our findings demonstrate an overall lack of free and low-cost immigration attorneys in relation to the number of unaccompanied children in need of legal representation, with only one attorney for every 137 children nationally. Moreover, in assessing attorney to child ratios at the state-scale, we demonstrate that in 43 states (86 percent of the states in the country) the number of children to attorneys exceeds reasonable caseloads. Importantly, these estimates do not account for the fact that not all free and low-cost immigration attorneys take on children’s cases nor for the overall demand for immigration legal services among the more than three million individuals facing deportation in the United States. In turn, while sobering, our estimates likely significantly over-estimate children’s actual access to representation across the United States. Based on these findings, we offer the following policy recommendations: • Federal, state, local, and philanthropic organizations should strategically invest in workforce development to grow the number of free and low-cost immigration attorneys in general and specifically in areas where the lack is particularly high. • Workforce development programs should both engage new law school graduates and individuals working in private practice who may be looking to enter the public interest sector. • Policy makers, funders, and organizational leaders should invest in and support holistic representation models in order to reduce the burdens experienced by attorneys and foster retention in the field. • Governmental and philanthropic organizations should invest in additional research and program evaluation in order to more fully understand the need for representation among unaccompanied children and barriers to and facilitators of accessing representation. These efforts should go hand-in-hand with improvements in data quality and sharing among governmental and non-governmental stakeholders. • The federal government should immediately reinstate all contracts and programs related to providing legal orientation and representation to unaccompanied migrant children in line with Congressionally appropriated funds allocated for these purposes to both ensure children’s rights under the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act (TVPRA) are realized and that the existing (already insufficient) workforce of trained and experienced attorneys equipped to represent unaccompanied children is not eroded.
Topic:
Migration, Children, Migrants, Lawyers, and Unaccompanied Children
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2435. Applying a Dignity Lens in Migration and Displacement

Author:
Paul Clayton Perrin
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
Recognizing that migration and displacement are longstanding elements of human history, the paper emphasizes the critical role of respecting the inherent dignity of migrating persons as an important part of the right-to-stay dialogue. Although international frameworks, such as the Sphere Handbook, the Paris Declaration, and UNHCR’s Durable Solutions, have provided a critical foundation for addressing many of the basic needs of migrating populations, they largely focus on material aspects of well-being, overshadowing the equally essential need for other aspects of one’s dignity — a recognition of the inherent equal value that each human being possesses — to be respected and upheld. This approach positions dignity as a luxury to be addressed only after other basic needs are met. However, evidence shows that ensuring physical safety, food, and shelter alone does not fulfill the complex needs of migrating individuals, who often experience emotional distress and social marginalization when their dignity is ignored. By framing dignity as an intrinsic human right that is not contingent on external conditions or something that can be distributed out of the back of a truck, the paper argues that organizations can foster deeper engagement with migrant communities. Two case studies — Georgia and Afghanistan — highlight the consequences of placing primacy on biophysical needs over respect for dignity. In Georgia, despite robust efforts to provide for material well-being, displaced persons reported significant emotional distress due to a sense of being marginalized and ignored. In Afghanistan, a disconnect between international aid organizations and local communities fostered resentment, exacerbating insecurity and undermining trust in humanitarian efforts. Both these cases underscore that fulfilling physical needs alone does not equate to a life with dignity. To improve our ability to uphold human dignity in the right-to-stay debate and in supporting migrating communities, three recommendations are proposed: (1) adopt a dignity-centered approach that values the immaterial aspects of human existence, (2) integrate dignity into accountability measures, and (3) tailor dignity-affirming practices to local needs. Only by elevating dignity to a core operational principle can humanitarian efforts more holistically address the complex challenges faced by displaced populations. In conclusion, this paper underscores the need for a transformative approach to humanitarian response that centers human dignity as a fundamental principle. As humanitarian organizations increasingly recognize the importance of dignity in displacement contexts, there is an opportunity to deepen engagement with affected communities, ensuring that their voices and values inform interventions. By embedding dignity within humanitarian frameworks, we can create responses that truly support displaced populations’ well-being, facilitating resilience and restoring agency in the face of displacement.
Topic:
Migration, Displacement, Dignity, and Right to Stay
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, Eurasia, Georgia, and Global Focus

2436. Defining, Measuring, and Increasing “Rootedness” in the High Migration Context of Honduras

Author:
Tom Hare, María Estela Rivero Fuentes, and Kevin Hans Waitkuweit
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
The notion of “rootedness” in the sociology and migration literature is not well defined despite its increasing use by academics and, especially, practitioners. Defining and measuring rootedness has been problematic given that it is often operationalized as, but is not fully captured by, a concept related to social capital, community attachment, and participation. Rootedness is also often thought of as solely the absence of the desire to migrate. However, we argue that an individual’s desire to stay can be just as important as the well-documented “root causes” of migration; that is, economic poverty, insecurity, and strong migration networks. We propose a working definition of the concept of rootedness based on an empirical analysis of data from a nationally representative survey in the high migration context of Honduras. We find that rootedness can both be defined as and measured by an individual’s agreement with the idea that where they live is their “true home” and that they “see a good future” in that location. We further find that rootedness can be increased via a strong sense of security (not only the absence of victimization) and active community support for youth. Programs and policies should therefore promote security that goes beyond just preventing crime and fosters a general sense of wellbeing. In particular, programs should promote efforts to ensure that youth are supported by incorporating them in community decision-making, listening to what youth propose, promoting youth participation, and supporting youth leadership. Importantly, income is not strongly associated with this definition of rootedness. This finding highlights the important role of non-economic factors in migration decisions. Even when income increases, it does not necessarily increase the aspiration to stay. To be rooted, as we conceive of it, means more than having sufficient income. In summary, the paper examines and offers a new understanding of the concept of “rootedness,” which speaks to why some members of a community want to migrate and others desire to remain in their home communities. Fleshing out our understanding of rootedness as a way to talk about and measure the desire to remain is therefore crucial to realizing the “right” or “freedom” to stay at home.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Youth, Push Factor, and Rootedness
Political Geography:
Central America and Honduras

2437. The United States, Europe, and the Global Compacts: Honoring the Right to Remain and the Right to Migrate

Author:
J. Kevin Appleby
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
The adoption of the Global Compacts on Migration and Refugees in 2019 by the UN General Assembly marked a significant achievement, providing two essential frameworks from which UN Member States could fashion their future immigration and refugee policies. Since their adoption, however, the number of forcibly displaced in the world has increased significantly, prompting receiving nations, such as the United States and the European countries, to rely more on deterrence-based enforcement initiatives to reduce the number of migrants arriving at their borders. At the same time, the number of migrant deaths, both on sea and land, have increased, as desperate migrants, asylum-seekers, and refugees have attempted to find new homes in industrialized nations. This paper analyzes the migration policies adopted by the United States and Europe in the nearly six years since the Global Compacts were adopted and provides an assessment about how these receiving nations have adapted to the rising number of forcibly displaced in the world, and whether, in doing so, their policies have been consistent with the provision of both Compacts. The paper finds that: • Both the US and Europe have instituted enforcement policies that violate the spirit, if not the intent, of the two Compacts, and, in some cases, undermine international human rights standards; • Both the US and Europe have attempted to balance their enforcement-related approaches with the creation of legal avenues and immigrant integration policies, consistent with the two Compacts, but their efforts, to date, have been insufficient to the need; • The US has made significant strides in introducing policies to protect refugee-like populations, but has failed to protect asylum-seekers in need of protection who arrive at the US-Mexico border; • Europe has relied on bilateral agreements and restrictive laws to deter migrants from reaching European shores, while at the same time supported sending and transit countries with development assistance; • Both the US and Europe have a mixed record with regard to preserving the principles of the right to remain and the right to migrate, a record which must be improved in the years ahead.
Topic:
Migration, United Nations, Refugees, Freedom of Movement, Rights, and Right to Stay
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

2438. Forced Evacuations and the Politics of Return in South Lebanon: Legal and Identity Implications

Author:
Jasmin Lilian Diab
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
This article examines the legal and identity implications of forced evacuations in South Lebanon amid the 2023–2025 escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork with 80 displaced families from Aita al-Shaab, Khiam, and Odaisseh, it interrogates how prolonged displacement — absent state-led return, restitution, or recognition — transforms internal displacement into a condition of de facto exile. Using the lens of international refugee, human rights, and humanitarian law, including the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement and the Pinheiro Principles, the study reveals how Lebanon’s lack of a formal framework for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and its selective reconstruction efforts undermine displaced individuals’ rights and legal belonging. It further explores how displacement intersects with class, political affiliation, and sectarian dynamics, deepening inequalities in access to aid, return, and recognition. The article challenges the assumption that humanitarian assistance can substitute for legal protection, emphasizing that the failure to translate international obligations into domestic enforcement mechanisms leaves IDPs in a state of legal and political limbo. Conceptually, it engages with theories of “displacement in place,” “involuntary immobility,” and “stuckness” to show how legal ambiguity, psychological toll, and administrative erasure reconfigure internal displacement as a state of exclusion and abandonment. Ultimately, the article calls for a rights-based and enforceable approach to internal displacement in Lebanon, arguing that without legal accountability and state action, humanitarianism alone cannot address the structural dimensions of exile.
Topic:
Law, Hezbollah, Internal Displacement, Armed Conflict, Exile, and Forced Displacement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and South Lebanon

2439. More Than Miscommunication: Rethinking Interpretation at the Asylum Office

Author:
Hillary Mellinger
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
The United States requires asylum applicants to provide their own interpreters for their interviews at the Asylum Office, barring exceptional circumstances. Applicants can face significant hurdles in finding suitable interpreters, who play a critical role in giving them a voice in the asylum process. Inaccurate interpretation can have serious ramifications such as denial of an applicant’s asylum claim. Despite the critical need for meaningful language access in the asylum process, interpretation at the Asylum Office remains understudied. This article represents a first attempt at bringing the scholarly and practitioner communities together to rethink interpretation at the Asylum Office, with the goal of identifying feasible steps that the Asylum Office can take to enhance language access. This article proposes the below five holistic policy recommendations to improve interpretation at the Asylum Office, based on data from 28 interviews with attorneys who practiced before either the Arlington or Houston Asylum Offices, as well as the authors’ own prior professional experiences advocating on behalf of asylum seekers. 1. Government provision of telephonic interpreters. 2. Advance notice when a bilingual asylum officer can conduct an asylum interview in a language other than English. 3. Additional institutional support for asylum officers including lunch breaks. 4. Improved data collection regarding interpretation. 5. Additional research including analysis of how the COVID-19 pandemic affected interpretation at the Asylum Office. These recommendations are a starting point to improving language access at the Asylum Office. With this article, the authors hope to spark future research and conversations to ensure that individuals with limited English proficiency have meaningful access to asylum interviews.
Topic:
Immigration, Asylum, Interpretation, Lawyers, and Language Access
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2440. The Undocumented Population in the United States Increased to 12.2 Million in 2023

Author:
Robert Warren
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
In 2023, the US undocumented population reached 12.2 million, exceeding the previous high of 12.0 million in 2008. This report provides estimates of the undocumented population in 2023 based on data collected in the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). The report focuses on trends in annual population growth from 2013 to 2023 for the total population and for 17 countries or areas of origin. It also describes trends in the undocumented population in the six states with the largest undocumented population in 2023. The CMS estimates of undocumented residents include immigrants in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Temporary Protected Status (TPS) programs, and the estimates include most of the people that have entered asylum backlogs or received humanitarian parole status since 2021. The estimates were derived using previous CMS estimation procedures except that higher undercount rates were used to estimate the number of undocumented residents that arrived after 2020. Adjustment for undercount was increased for post-2020 arrivals to account for the unusually large flow across the US/Mexico border in recent years and because relatively more migrants resided in group quarters1 where enumeration can be difficult. The CMS methodology is summarized after the following section, and information about undercount rates for recent arrivals is shown in the Appendix.
Topic:
Demographics, Migration, Immigration, and Undocumented Population
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2441. The Right to Remain and the Causes of Forced Migration

Author:
Fabio Baggio
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
Pope Francis dedicated his Message for the 109th World Day of Migrants and Refugees to the freedom that should characterize one’s choice whether to migrate or remain. With his message, developed by constantly listening to the local Churches, the Holy Father wanted to promote a new debate on a right not yet codified at an international level: the right not to have to migrate, or more precisely, the right to remain in one’s homeland. The forced nature of many current migration flows requires a careful consideration of the causes of current migrations. The right to remain is pre-eminent, deeper, and broader than the right to migrate. It involves the possibility of participating in the common good, the right to live with dignity and have access to sustainable development. All of these rights should be effectively safeguarded in the countries of origin with the responsible involvement of the international community.
Topic:
Migration, Catholic Church, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2442. Fear as a Group Emotion in Mixed-Status Immigrant Ecuadorian Community in Queens, New York

Author:
Halyna Lemekh
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
This study foregrounds fear as a group emotion shared by members of the Ecuadorian immigrant community in Queens, New York. The study is based on 30 in-depth interviews collected through ethnographic fieldwork in an Ecuadorian enclave in 2022–2023. It illuminates how fear, as a group emotion, instilled by “illegality,” is experienced by first-generation, 1.5-generation, and second-generation immigrants. Group fear experienced by members of the mixed-status immigrant community stems from collective and cumulative fear. This study defines collective fear as an emotion prevailing in mixed-status immigrant communities because of vulnerability from their undocumented status and marginalization passed on to members through socialization. Collective fear affects group dynamics and intergroup interactions, with debilitating effects on its members; however, it has positive functions, cementing social bonds between immigrants and solidifying the community. Another aspect of group fear is cumulative fear, defined in this study as the totality of fears experienced by first-generation, 1.5-generation, and second-generation Ecuadorian immigrants. First-generation immigrants express fear of border crossing, fear of detention and deportation, and fear of uncertainty during the legalization process. Meanwhile, 1.5-generation immigrants convey retrospective fear of crossing the border, fear of detention and deportation, fear of uncertainty during the legalization process, fear of liminal status restrictions, and fear of termination of the temporary protective status granted to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals recipients. Second-generation immigrants, as jus-soli citizens of the United States, report fear of family separation and sympathy toward undocumented community members. Collective fear disseminated through numerous in-group (among community members) and inter-group interactions (community members and interior immigration enforcement) and learned through socialization provides empirical evidence of the “top–down” influence of group members’ experiences on emotions. Conversely, cumulative fear is based on individuals’ immigrant experiences cohering through the “bottom–up” influence of shared emotion on group formation. The only way to eradicate this group fear is to adjust one’s undocumented status, leading former undocumented immigrants to feel guilty about their acquired freedom, as their family members may still live in the shadow of “illegality.” This study demonstrates that U.S. President Joe Biden’s executive order aimed at keeping American families together cannot eliminate the overall paralyzing fear in immigrant communities. Given that the policy will affect an insignificant number of people, drastic measures are needed. The following policy recommendations are offered: • Allow non-citizen spouses and children to adjust their unresolved immigrant status unconditionally (removing the requirement of residence in the U.S. for 10 years or more). • Grant all recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program legal permanent resident status as a pathway to U.S. citizenship. • Allow all liminally legal 1.5-generation immigrants to pursue education and careers through legalization. • Forbid deportation of U.S. citizens’ parents, forgive most undocumented immigrants’ unauthorized entry into the country, and allow them to adjust their status.
Topic:
Immigrants, Fear, Undocumented Population, Amnesty, and Group Emotion
Political Geography:
New York, North America, Ecuador, United States of America, and Queens

2443. Redefining the Approach to Resettlement and Reception: The Humanitarian Corridors Experience in Italy

Author:
Antea Enna
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
In an era of global uncertainty and multiple humanitarian crises, migration is a matter of life and death for many. In the Mediterranean, the migration drive from Africa and the Middle East has been restricted by European containment policies that have forced asylum seekers and refugees to depend on smugglers and illegal sea-crossing, resulting in numerous tragedies in which many have died. The lack of a secure path to access international protection and safe and legal entry to Europe and the increase in vulnerable people seeking international protection have motivated some stakeholders to outline and test new approaches to support refugees’ resettlement. Humanitarian corridors are a civil society response to support refugees and asylum seekers to reach Europe legally and safely. Although not without its drawbacks, the approach has proved highly effective. This article explores the humanitarian corridors from Lebanon to Italy, delving into the experiences of Syrian refugees who have participated in the program and those who have been involved in its implementation. It examines the weaknesses and strengths of the humanitarian corridors program based on feedback from program beneficiaries, field staff in Lebanon, and those in charge of the reception in Italy. Results reveal that, overall, this approach has proven to be highly effective as the humanitarian corridors are a civil society response to support refugees and asylum seekers to reach Europe legally and safely. Moreover, findings show that expanding humanitarian corridors on a larger scale is possible. The growth of humanitarian corridors depends on the political commitment of member states, the European Union policies and financial allocation, and civil society actors. Collaboration between governments and civil society could boost the potential for expansion, ensuring safe and legal entry for more individuals in need.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Asylum, Humanitarian Corridors, and International Protection
Political Geography:
Europe, Italy, and Mediterranean

2444. Virtuality for Real Children: Unaccompanied Minors and US Immigration Custody

Author:
Kif Augustine-Adams, Hayley Pierce, Melissa Alcaraz, and Jhandra Melissa Díaz López
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
In the United States, federal law charges the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) with responsibility for the custody and care of unaccompanied migrant children. Since April 2021, more than 1,250 child migrants have experienced what ORR terms a “Virtual” program placement while in its custody. ORR has not: explained what its use of virtuality means for the children in its care, defined Virtual as a program placement type, set forth parameters for its use, or published the criteria by which it selects children for virtual rather than physical placement. Using administrative data, an online video meeting with ORR personnel, and ORR manuals and documents, this article conceptualizes ORR’s use of virtuality as a bifurcation of a child’s custody: ORR takes technical legal custody but not physical custody of the child. The article recognizes risks this bifurcation poses to the physical well-being of unaccompanied children and how bifurcation complicates ORR’s compliance with minimum legal standards set by federal law. The article likewise identifies benefits some children have received from virtual placement: quick release from ORR custody; the opportunity to remain with accompanying non-parental adults, such as siblings and grandparents, rather than enduring separation from them, as is standard practice in US immigration detention; and privileged entry into the US independent of standard legal authorization procedures. The article urges ORR and other US government entities to account for the risks and benefits virtuality poses to the well-being of unaccompanied migrant children.
Topic:
Migrants, Unaccompanied Children, Immigration Detention, and Virtual
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2445. What does Trump's new National Security Strategy mean for the Middle East?

Author:
David Hale and Alistair Taylor
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In this episode, MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Ambassador David Hale joins host Alistair Taylor to unpack the Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy (NSS). Released on December 4, the document outlines the administration’s foreign policy vision, priorities, and approach to global challenges. Ambassador Hale analyzes the new NSS and how it compares to previous US strategy documents. The conversation focuses on what the NSS means for the future of US policy in the Middle East, and how it is likely to be received by regional actors. Recorded on December 9, 2025.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Donald Trump, and Strategy
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

2446. Saudi Arabia: Rise of a global diplomatic power?

Author:
Zeina AlShaib, Gregory Gause, and Norman Roule
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia is increasingly positioning itself at the center of various high-stakes diplomatic processes. In recent months, it has taken on key roles as backer, mediator, or host to ongoing negotiations, including on a Gaza settlement, Russian-US normalization and a cease-fire in Ukraine, support for Lebanon and Syria, as well as efforts to end the Sudanese civil war. How do such Saudi diplomatic interventions fit into the kingdom’s broader political-economic transformation efforts? This on-the-record briefing featured Middle East Institute (MEI) Associate Fellow Norman T. Roule, a 34-year veteran of the CIA whose current work focuses on issues concerning the Gulf states and Iran. The briefing also featured F. Gregory Gause III, Visiting Scholar at MEI and author of three books focused on the Persian Gulf. Our experts assessed Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic ambitions and potential limitations, how the kingdom is navigating the rapidly shifting global geopolitical landscape, and what a weakened Iran means for Riyadh’s role within the Middle Eastern regional balance of power.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Negotiation, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

2447. Expectations of Young People from Business Life: A Gender and Equality Perspective

Author:
M. Murat Erdoğan
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Understanding the expectations of young people regarding business life requires not only learning about their needs and priorities, but also taking into account the social context in which these expectations are shaped. Although Türkiye’s young population has a great potential with its dynamic structure, it is imperative to think about how this potential is shaped and how it can be utilised. Especially from the perspective of gender equality, it is impossible not to notice the different priorities of young women and men in their expectations from work. These differences should be read as a reflection of economic and cultural inequalities, geographical differences and even intergenerational values… Therefore, understanding what young people expect from business life provides an opportunity to better understand both inequalities in the labour market and the dynamics of social transformation.
Topic:
Business, Youth, Labor Market, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2448. Labor in the Green and Digital Jobs of the Future: What Kind of ‘Future’ Will Arrive and Under Which Conditions?

Author:
Aslı Aydın
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Sustainable development goals, increasing environmental threats and global competition are forcing countries to take steps towards green transition and digital transformation based on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. In this so-called “twin transformation”, low-carbon and smart technology-oriented jobs are expected to increase rapidly and future jobs are expected to be shaped around these new trends. In this policy brief, the potential opportunities and risks in the twin transformation, including the gender equality dimension, are examined together, and discussion topics that are expected to benefit policymaking are put forward.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, Sustainable Development, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2449. Skills for the Future through the Lens of Gender Equality

Author:
Özgenur Korlu
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This policy brief addresses the future skills debate in Turkey from a gender equality perspective and offers recommendations to improve the situation. In an era of multiple crises, it is increasingly difficult to envision the future and future skills, and this places a significant burden on education systems. In the context of future skills, gender equality issues in Turkey are not so much related to girls’ acquisition of these skills, but rather to their low post-graduation labor force participation rates despite their skills. Ensuring gender equality in education can play a critical role in addressing these challenges. Against this backdrop, this brief provides a roadmap for the Turkish education system to strengthen gender equality in education based on the findings of PISA 2022.
Topic:
Education, Labor Market, Gender Equality, and Child Policy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2450. Budgets Allocated to Disasters and Risk Reduction by Metropolitan Municipalities Before and After February 6 Earthquake

Author:
Kamu Harcamalarını İzleme Platformu (KAHİP)
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Disasters such as earthquakes, floods and forest fires in recent years have brought disaster and disaster risk reduction issues to the agenda in Türkiye. This study aims to examine the budgets of 30 metropolitan municipalities and water-sewerage authorities in areas such as pre-disaster risk reduction and post-disaster response. In line with this objective, the performance programs of metropolitan municipalities and water-sewerage authorities for the years 2022, 2023 and 2024 have been examined.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Governance, Budget, Accountability, Urban, Transparency, Sustainability, and Earthquake
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East