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3161. Migration or stagnation: Aging and economic growth in Korea today, the world tomorrow

Author:
Michael A. Clemens
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
South Korea faces an unprecedented economic crisis driven by rapid population aging, as it approaches a future of negative economic growth. This paper examines the full range of possible policy responses with the potential to restore dynamism to the Korean economy. Contrary to many prior analyses, I find that enhanced labor migration to Korea is necessary, sufficient, and feasible. Migration is necessary because in the best forecasts we have, no other class of policy has the quantitative potential to meaningfully offset aging. Migration is sufficient because enhanced temporary labor migration by itself would offset most of Korea’s demographic drag on growth over the next 50 years. And migration is feasible because the levels of migration and timescale of the transition would resemble that already carried out by Malaysia and Australia. Many advanced economies will follow in Korea’s demographic footsteps in decades to come, and have much to learn from the decisions that the Korean government makes now.
Topic:
Demographics, Migration, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, and Aging
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

3162. Korea’s Trade Policy Agenda in an Uncertain US Trade Environment

Author:
Alan Wm. Wolff and Han-Koo Yeo
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This paper addresses how South Korea, a mid-sized ally of the United States, can best navigate clearly identifiable risks, crafting a positive and pragmatic international trade policy. Korea is heavily dependent on the United States for its defense. It is clear that US trade policy has recently shifted toward being more self-centered, a policy unlikely to be reversed any time soon. The United States is on the threshold of a presidential election that makes it unpredictable in its trade policy, which may become directly harmful to Korean economic prospects if there is a change in leadership. US trade policies under President Joseph Biden have been primarily aimed at onshoring rather than friendshoring, but they have not been actively hostile or threatening. If there is a second Donald Trump term, Korea might not be excluded from substantially increased tariffs—whether for protection, revenue, or leverage—despite the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). At the same time that Korea is watchful of developments in the United States, it needs to pay attention to its neighbor, China, the world’s largest trading economy, a country that has practiced trade coercion against it. South Korea is the world’s 13th-largest economy. It is a strong proponent and practitioner of free trade. It is one of a group of midsize free market democracies aligned with the United States that, ranked by GDP, includes Japan, Germany, and France (and therefore with others, the European Union), the United Kingdom, Canada, Italy, and Australia. The future of the global trading system that the market-oriented countries wish to enjoy is increasingly dependent on this group of midsize economies and the European Union. Korea has thrived in large part through its open trade policy that has made it the country with the world’s greatest number of free trade agreements (including with both the United States and China, as well as with the European Union). It shares strong economic security interests with the United States: It has its own K-CHIPS Act, which provides substantial subsidies to its semiconductor industry. It invests very substantially in critical minerals and batteries, as does the United States. Korea also collaborates with the United States in the production of vaccines to meet future pandemics.
Topic:
Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Investment, Trade, Economic Security, Semiconductors, Steel, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

3163. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The paper explores policies promoted by former president and now candidate Donald Trump that would potentially affect the global economy. We focus on immigration policy, trade, and erosion of the Federal Reserve Board’s political independence. Each policy has differing macroeconomic and sectoral impacts on the United States and other countries. We find, however, that all the policies examined cause a decline in US production and employment, especially in trade-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture, as well as higher US inflation. The trade policies do little to improve the US trade balance; however, the erosion of Fed independence does so by causing capital outflows, a significant depreciation of the dollar, and higher unemployment toward the end of 2028, which worsen American living standards. Scenarios combining individual policies show that the changes cause a large inflationary impulse and a significant loss of employment (particularly in manufacturing and agriculture) in the US economy. The negative impact of a contraction in global trade is significant for countries that trade with the United States the most. The adverse effect is offset for some economies by the positive effects of an inflow of foreign capital that would otherwise have gone into the US economy. An online dashboard contains a full set of macroeconomic and sectoral results for all countries.
Topic:
Migration, Central Bank, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and Deportation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3164. The Trinity of COVID Era Inflation in G7 Economies

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon and Asher Rose
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
COVID era inflation was driven by a unique combination of three shocks: First, a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and disruptions to supply caused prices of consumer durable goods to skyrocket. Second, the Ukraine war caused the largest global commodity price surge in 40 years, which mainly affected prices of nondurable goods such as food and gasoline. Third, strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic recession caused labor markets to tighten, pushing up prices of services. This paper estimates models of the components of consumer prices in each G7 economy in order to document the transmission of these shocks. The first two shocks had run their course by 2023, enabling overall inflation to decline sharply from its 2022 peak. But labor markets remained at least moderately tight in most G7 economies in 2024, and services inflation remained noticeably higher than its pre-pandemic level.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, G7, COVID-19, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3165. East Africa’s Potential Role in US Graphite Supply Chains

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The impact of the green tech trade war between the United States and China, which began with US semiconductor export controls, is now being felt in other areas. In December 2023, China introduced export controls on graphite, a key element used in the production of noncarbon technologies like batteries and solar panels. The effects were immediate: Chinese graphite exports to the rest of the world declined by 93 percent (by volume) in a single month. Exports to the United States and Japan—which is collaborating with the United States on semiconductor controls—dropped to zero.1 But although China is the largest player, it is not the only graphite producer in town. This Policy Brief assesses the prospects for three Sub-Saharan African countries—Madagascar, Mozambique, and Tanzania—for providing stable supplies of natural graphite to the US market, considering both domestic factors in the three countries and US policies established by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These countries have adequate graphite resources and operators headquartered in Western allies. The problem is that there are significant governance-related challenges in Madagascar and Mozambique and some domestic challenges to incorporating East African graphite into US electric vehicle (EV) supply chains. US critical mineral sourcing policies will need to be modified to facilitate greater involvement of African producers in US graphite supply chains.
Topic:
Supply Chains, Electric Vehicles, Critical Minerals, and Graphite
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, East Africa, and United States of America

3166. Egypt’s 2023–24 Economic Crisis: Will This Time Be Different?

Author:
Ruchir Agarwal and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Egypt narrowly averted a full-blown economic crisis in early 2024 when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others gave Egypt a financial lifeline to curb its losses of foreign exchange reserves. This Policy Brief traces the origins and developments of the current crisis, and the country's history of repeated balance of payments crises. The 2023-24 crisis is one of eight such events in Egypt since 1952, driven by governance and policy deficiencies. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have exacerbated Egypt's problems. Egypt's strategic importance in the Middle East, underscored by the Gaza conflict, has ensured continued international financial support, allowing Egypt to bet on its "too strategic to fail" position and avoid reforms. Entrenched military dominance and cronyism have obstructed necessary economic reforms. The authors conclude that Egypt needs to address these challenges and undertake major reforms to break free from its recurring cycle of crises and stop relying on international bailouts.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, Currency, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

3167. Misconceptions about US Trade Deficits Muddy the Economic Policy Debate

Author:
Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The distrust of openness to the global economy shared by Republican and Democratic leadership derives in part from a faulty premise that persistent US trade deficits have been imposed on the United States by foreign countries and have contributed significantly to US deindustrialization. In fact, the deficits have important domestic sources, and the main drivers of US manufacturing employment decline lie elsewhere. Two theories that blame foreign countries for deficits hold that deficits arose from unfair competition by trade partners or from a “global savings glut.” The author says the first theory is wrong, the second is incomplete, and economic isolationism is not a solution. Trade and current account deficits result generally from an economy’s collective decisions to save and invest. Freer trade does not necessarily raise investment more than saving, and an investment-driven deficit is likely positive for the economy. The years 1998–2001 during and after the Asian financial crisis led to the dollar appreciating and a rise in the US deficit, consistent with the global saving glut theory. But subsequently in the 2000s, foreign capital was not pushed into the United States from abroad; rather it was pulled and the dollar depreciated. The causes were easy financial conditions, a housing bubble, and strong US consumption—trends that ended in a financial crisis. Understanding this history is essential if the United States is to avoid destructive protectionism and other harmful economic policies.
Topic:
Economy, Economic Policy, Free Trade, Trade Deficit, and Deindustrialization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3168. Economic implications of revoking China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status

Author:
Megan Hogan, Warwick McKibben, and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The United States’ granting of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, formerly known as most favored nation status, to China in 2000 resulted in a large expansion of bilateral trade. Concerns over Chinese trade practices and the impact of Chinese exports on US import-competing sectors have contributed to US political discontent and calls for the revocation of PNTR, including by former president Donald Trump in his reelection campaign and in the 2024 Republican Party Platform. The authors find that revoking China’s PNTR status would cause higher inflation and a short-term decline in US gross domestic product relative to baseline from which the economy never fully recovers. The loss of output and employment would be felt unevenly across the economy, with agriculture, durable manufacturing, and mining taking the biggest hits. Stock market prices would fall, with agricultural, durable manufacturing, and mining firms absorbing the biggest declines. All of these impacts would be magnified if China retaliates. Ironically, the revocation would damage the US industrial sector and contribute to a wider US trade deficit.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3169. Did Supply Chains Deliver Pandemic-Era Inflation?

Author:
Phil Levy
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief argues that supply chain breakdowns were not a principal cause of pandemic-era inflation. Levy focuses on US trade in containerized goods and shows that, within months of the pandemic’s onset, the quantities of goods delivered in fact increased significantly. The sharp increases in inflation and shipping prices and the accompanying delays and empty shelves in the presence of significantly increased quantities suggest, instead, a large positive demand shock. Goods consumption levels rose sharply and remained elevated into 2023 and beyond, even as shipping delays and price hikes dissipated. The author concludes that, while it may be worthwhile to make supply chains more efficient and aim for increased elasticity of supply, the goal of avoiding inflation and shortages is likely better met through improved demand management.
Topic:
Inflation, Trade, COVID-19, Shipping, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3170. Was Something Structurally Wrong at the FOMC?

Author:
Alan S. Blinder
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve was late to start raising interest rates as inflation rose in 2021–22. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made a substantial, though perhaps understandable, error in failing to raise interest rates until March 2022. Much of that policy error can be attributed to faulty forecasts of inflation, which the Federal Reserve shared with many other forecasters. It was not an outlier. But the error was not quite as consequential as the Fed’s sharpest critics allege. Even if the FOMC had started to hike rates earlier, the econometric evidence suggests that the effects on peak inflation would likely have been small. Supply constraints, not excess demand, ruled the roost. They came, driving inflation higher; and then they went, pulling inflation down. Blinder says that the FOMC’s August 2020 framework shoulders more of the blame for the inflationary surge than it should—probably because the new wording revised both of the Fed’s goals, low inflation and high employment, in dovish directions. For that reason alone, the framework will almost certainly be changed in 2025, given the high inflation since. But how? Blinder suggests that the August 2020 change in the employment goal, from symmetry to “shortfalls,” is sensible and probably not too important anyway. But the change in the inflation goal, from a 2 percent point target to flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT), was probably consequential. It may have made the FOMC slow on the draw as inflation gathered steam, and it may have kept monetary policy too tight for too long in 2024. In both directions, Blinder argues, a 1.5 to 2.5 percent target range would be a better choice. To answer the question in the title of this Policy Brief, that may be the structural flaw the Fed should fix.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, and Supply
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3171. Is the United States undergoing a manufacturing renaissance that will boost the middle class?

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
President Joseph R. Biden Jr. made the goal of his economic policies to “build back better.” He emphasized helping workers without college degrees in order “to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out.” The emphasis on a manufacturing renaissance is reflected in the special incentives for US manufacturing in President Biden’s programs: the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. Lawrence finds little evidence of a renaissance in US manufacturing as of July 2024: US manufacturing employment was barely above its pre-COVID levels. Manufacturing output has grown more slowly than GDP since the pandemic, and productivity in manufacturing has not increased since 2017. Moreover, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that over the next decade, manufacturing employment will decline and manufacturing output will grow more slowly than GDP. However, Lawrence says, additional manufacturing employment growth could be in the pipeline because of investment projects that have been announced but not yet completed. Lawrence estimates the additional manufacturing employment potential of announcements compiled by the White House as of mid-2024, finding that these projects could boost demand for 1.7 million manufacturing workers—a growth of 13.3 percent above 2022 manufacturing employment levels. It should be noted, however, that these are not estimates of net overall manufacturing employment growth. Some of the increased demand will be offset by losses of fossil fuel–related jobs displaced by the investments as well as declines in manufacturing employment for other reasons. Moreover, the impact of all the projects is just over 1 percent of overall US employment and in most states far too small to significantly change the opportunities for most non-college-educated workers and disadvantaged communities.
Topic:
Economic Policy, Inflation, Manufacturing, and Middle Class
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3172. Mistaken Identities Make for Bad Trade Policy

Author:
Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Election season debates over trade policy have brought renewed attention to the United States' longstanding deficit in foreign trade. Critics from both the right and left sides of the political spectrum, including Donald Trump and his allies, hold the trade deficit responsible for a range of alleged ills, among them, slower US economic growth, fewer jobs, the decline in manufacturing, and a transfer of American wealth to foreign owners. Trump supporters' ideas to reduce US trade deficits, such as far-reaching taxes on international transactions or forced dollar devaluation, rest on particular theories of why the deficits have arisen and persisted. These theories often have little basis other than macroeconomic accounting identities—relationships that are always true, by definition, and that therefore are consistent with a range of economic outcomes. Two key macroeconomic identities, the national income and product identity and the balance-of-payments identity, have been widely abused as justifications for radical policies to balance US trade. The identities describe relationships that necessarily hold among macro variables, but without the further input of behavioral reasoning, they cannot yield valid predictions or constructive policy conclusions. Identity-based reasoning is especially dangerous because it disguises the collateral damage that superficial fixes may inflict. It is much better to identify and directly correct the distortions that cause excessive trade deficits to emerge and persist.
Topic:
Elections, Macroeconomics, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and Trade Deficit
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3173. The Rise of US Economic Sanctions on China: Analysis of a New PIIE Dataset

Author:
Martin Chorzempa, Mary Lovely, and Christine Wan
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Concerns over China’s national security and human rights activities have led the United States to rely increasingly on financial sanctions and export controls to curb Beijing’s behavior. But the tools are so complex it is difficult to assess their effectiveness. A new PIIE dataset sheds light on this economic statecraft. The first Trump administration added three times as many Chinese entities to export control and other sanctions lists than the previous four administrations; the Biden administration added even more to these lists. Most sanctions and controls target high-tech sectors, especially electronics, military and defense entities, aviation, space, and aerospace; targets are chosen under a veil of secrecy, raising questions over accountability and transparency. The benefits of isolating Chinese firms come with potential costs, hobbling innovation for US and allied business, encouraging circumvention of sanctions, and accelerating Chinese innovation.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, National Security, Sanctions, and Exports
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3174. Is the World Trade Organization Still Relevant?

Author:
Alan Wm. Wolff
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
There has been a profound shift in American foreign economic policy. The United States has abandoned promotion of a rules-based open international trading system and no longer supports the World Trade Organization (WTO). The United States and its allies created the current world trading system as an essential part of the liberal world order, a series of rules-based international organizations and agreements to help rebuild the global economy and foster peaceful cooperation after World War II. Today, rising populism, heightened geopolitical tensions, and persistent inequality are threatening this order. Wolff emphasizes that the WTO is still relevant to the liberal international order, and it is in the core interest of the United States and other countries to continue to support that order. But he cautions that the WTO needs major reforms if it is to survive as an effective force governing world trade. WTO members must engage in serious negotiations to find acceptable solutions to shared problems. The resulting agreements can be political commitments or adoption of binding rules. Regressing to a lack of accountability for one’s trade policy measures, however, would be unacceptably damaging.
Topic:
Economic Policy, Trade, WTO, and International Order
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3175. Inclusion of Loss and Damage as a Subgoal in the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)

Author:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
The policy brief demonstrates how incorporating Loss and Damage (L&D) into the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) being discussed currently at COP 29 will address not only the equity gap for developing countries, but also provide a well-rounded and well-defined climate finance landscape. By anchoring L&D as a distinct component within the NCQG, developing countries can secure finances to respond to unavoidable climate impacts and non-economic loss and damage, ensuring a more comprehensive and just response to the climate crisis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, Equity, Loss and Damage (L&D), and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3176. Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh: What Climate Change Means for a Country and its People

Author:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
This report is a scientific synthesis by the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) in collaboration with Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET). It is intended to inform policymakers, media, the private sector, civil society, academics and anyone looking for country-level information on the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh. It has been reviewed internally before publication.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Natural Disasters, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

3177. The Future of Elections in Ukraine

Author:
Razumkov Centre
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The project «The Future of Elections in Ukraine: The Factor of War» was carried out by the Razumkov Centre with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ukraine in May- September 2024, during the third year of Ukraine’s full-scale war against the russian aggressor. The project included an analytical report, a nationwide sociological and expert survey, an offline roundtable involving experts in the fields of law and political science, and original articles by renowned experts in electoral law. This publication contains an abridged version of the analytical report and the main findings of the expert and sociological surveys in descriptive form. All project materials (in Ukrainian) are available in a special issue of the National Security and Defence journal (№1-2, 2024). '
Topic:
National Security, Law, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Science, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

3178. The Impact of Clubfoot Intervention on Dimensions of Human Flourishing: Evidence from the Organization Hope Walks in Ethiopia

Author:
Bruce Wydick, Gianna Camacho, and Patrizio Piraino
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
We study the impact of clubfoot disability and its treatment on multiple dimensions of human flourishing among children. Working with Hope Walks, a faith-based development organization that funds clubfoot interventions in numerous countries, we use a quasi difference-indifferences approach on data collected from 564 children in Ethiopia. To generate counterfactuals to clubfoot status and treatment, we use outcomes from nearest-age siblings of children born with clubfoot nested within a family-level fixed effect. We find that clubfoot status (early treatment) results in a disability (restoration) of -1.44σ (0.91σ) in physical mobility, -1.17σ (0.79σ) in mental health, -1.07σ (0.64σ) in social inclusion, -0.48σ (0.98σ) in an education index, -0.76σ (0.42σ) in religious faith, and -1.19σ (0.79σ) in an aggregate index of human flourishing (all p < 0.05). We attribute the large, broad, and significant impacts from clubfoot treatment to (i) a highly effective medical intervention that is (ii) carried out in an impoverished setting with scarce existing support for children born with disabilities, which (3) generates spillover effects into multiple facets of human flourishing.
Topic:
Health, Disability, Human Development, and Dignity
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

3179. An Integrative Framework to Assess Trade-Offs and Implications of Choosing Measurements

Author:
Laura García Montoya
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Deciding how to measure critical social science concepts like inequality and democracy is one of the most consequential decisions researchers and policymakers make. Yet we lack concrete guidelines to recognize and weigh the tradeoffs that make going from concept to measurement such a challenging task. This paper builds on existing work on measurement validity and develops a framework that allows scholars to identify the trade-offs between three desirable properties of measurement: completeness, interpretability, and normative alignment. The first challenge results from the inherent trade-off between completeness and interpretability. The second challenge results from the lack of empirical tools to assess the normative implications of choosing one indicator over another one. To exemplify how to navigate these challenges, the paper engages with debates on how to measure democracy and inequality. The paper aims to guide scholars in the consequential task of choosing one indicator that matches their research goals as well as their normative orientations.
Topic:
Poverty, Democracy, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3180. Positioned for Peacebuilding? The Complex Role of the Catholic Church in the Venezuelan Conflict

Author:
David Smilde and Hugo Pérez Hernáiz
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The Catholic Church would seem to be perfectly positioned to facilitate peace in the Venezuelan conflict. It is the country’s most respected institution, and Pope Francis has been personally interested in peacemaking in the region. Furthermore, there is precedent in the region. In Colombia, since the 1980s, the Catholic Church has played a key role in mobilizing the population for peace, supporting the peace process directly, and through involvement in issues of transitional justice. In this article, we briefly describe the peacebuilding activities of the Colombian Catholic Church, more extensively describe the activities of the Venezuelan Catholic Church, and then compare the two to understand the particular challenges the Venezuelan Church faces. We suggest that while the Venezuelan Church faces a similar political opportunity structure as the Colombian Church, it does so with less mobilizing strength and with a lesser ability to provide a clear ideological alternative to the conflict.
Topic:
Religion, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Catholic Church, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela