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57921. Challenges for a New Administration

Author:
Aleksandar D. Jovovic
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the fall 2000 meetings of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of possible foreign policy strategic surprises facing the incoming Administration. To provide a starting point for the discussion, working group members identified more than a dozen scenarios that could: Take a new administration by surprise (an event not covered in the transition briefing books). Present a considerable challenge to the President. Pose a significant discontinuity or shift in the current trend line.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

57922. Colombia at the Crossroads

Author:
Aleksandar D. Jovovic
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the spring session of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of strategic surprise in Colombia. After a presentation on four potential scenarios that may face Colombia (see next page), Schlesinger Working Group core members and Colombia specialists examined the key factors driving events in this conflict-scarred country, as well as possible outcomes for current political initiatives. Among other issues, the participants touched on the range and dynamics of the present conflict, its effects on Colombian institutions, the country's neighbors, as well as on the role of powerful outside players, primarily the United States. Upon defining these key factors, participants identified a broad outline for future policy towards Colombia, which would safeguard key U.S. interests, defined as an end to the conflict, political and economic stability in the region, and the suppression of the drug trade. The following report is based on the informal and general findings of the group and is therefore not a consensus document.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

57923. U.S. Immigration Policy: Unilateral and Cooperative Responses to Undocumented Immigration

Author:
Marc R. Rosenblum
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
This paper addresses the problem of undocumented immigration to the UnitedStates from Mexico, and current and proposed policies designed to control these undocumented flows. Undocumented migration from Mexico is a subject that already receives disproportionate attention in the sense that many-and probably most-undocumented immigrants in the United States do not illegally cross the U.S.-Mexican border, yet INS enforcement efforts focus overwhelmingly on these border crossers. Although undocumented Mexican migration to the United States is disproportionately targeted, the subject merits analytical attention for three reasons. First, undocumented immigration from Mexico to the United States is the largest illicit migration flow in the world, at about one million crossings per year. Second, partly for this reason, U.S. enforcement efforts devoted to controlling Mexican immigration cost taxpayers billions of dollars, and have resulted in the transformation of the INS into the largest civilian gun-carrying force in the world. And third, immigration remains central to U.S.-Mexican bilateral relations (Binational Commission 1997, Rico 1992, Rosenblum 1998) as U.S. immigration policy-making takes on an increasingly transnational character (Rosenblum 1999 and forthcoming).
Topic:
Human Rights and Migration
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

57924. U.S. Immigration Policy: Unilateral and Cooperative Responses to Undocumented Immigration

Author:
Marc R. Rosenblum
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
This paper addresses the problem of undocumented immigration to the United States from Mexico, and current and proposed policies designed to control these undocumented flows. Undocumented migration from Mexico is a subject that already receives disproportionate attention in the sense that many and probably most undocumented immigrants in the United States do not illegally cross the U.S.-Mexican border, yet INS enforcement efforts focus overwhelmingly on these border crossers. Although undocumented Mexican migration to the United States is disproportionately targeted, the subject merits analytical attention for three reasons. First, undocumented immigration from Mexico to the United States is the largest illicit migration flow in the world, at about one million crossings per year. Second, partly for this reason, U.S. enforcement efforts devoted to controlling Mexican immigration cost taxpayers billions of dollars, and have resulted in the transformation of the INS into the largest civilian gun-carrying force in the world. And third, immigration remains central to U.S.-Mexican bilateral relations (Binational Commission 1997, Rico 1992, Rosenblum 1998) as U.S. immigration policy-making takes on an increasingly transnational character (Rosenblum 1999 and forthcoming).
Topic:
Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, Central America, North America, and Mexico

57925. EU Finalises Military Tasks: Much Left To Do

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Sibylle Bauer, Sharon Riggle, Thomas Sköld, and Jensen Frederik
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
At the Nice Summit on 8 December, EU member states agreed that it is time for the EU to 'play...its role fully on the international stage' by cementing a new military dimension to its structures. The 60-page 'Presidency Report' (doc#14056), attached at the end of the Presidency Conclusions, exhaustively describes the modalities of the new common European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), and describes how the new structures will enable the EU to carry out the so-called Petersberg Tasks. [This article includes excerpts from a longer paper, available soon at www.cesd.org].
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

57926. Military secrecy in the EU Council provokes legal challenges

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Sibylle Bauer, and Jensen Frederik
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
On 26 July 2000 EU Ambassadors voted to introduce new rules denying the public access to classified, secret or top-secret documents containing information on military or non-military crisis management. The decision was adopted in August without further consultation of other EU institutions or any parliamentary or public debate. The Council has since been accused by some member states and the European Parliament (EP) of bringing secrecy into the EU by bypassing normal decision-making procedures and excluding an entire category of documents from the public — challenges which will ultimately be resolved in the European Court of Justice.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

57927. The EU Rapid Reaction Facility: A quick fix or fudge?

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Sibylle Bauer, Christopher Bollinghaus, Hiroko Kosaka, and Russell Pickard
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
One of the shortcomings of European Union (EU) crisis management is the inability, as a direct result of the rigidities imposed by the pillar structure, to mobilise resources to support properly co-ordinated, coherent and timely nonmilitary interventions. The report on Non-Military Crisis Management of the EU, prepared for the European Council in Helsinki in December 1999, called for the establishment of a Rapid Reaction Facility (RRF) to overcome these structural obstacles. The Commission has since developed a proposal for a Council Regulation to establish such a Facility but outstanding questions about its legal basis and its sources of funding may delay its adoption.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

57928. Enhancing the EU's Response to Violent Conflict: Moving Beyond Reaction to Preventive Action

Author:
Philip Wilkinson, Stefan Lehne, and Catriona Gourlay
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
Quoting the words of Alva Myrdal in her 1982 Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech, Mrs Theorin noted that we are living in an age of “instrumentalised, de - personalized violence.” In the post - cold war era the battlefield has moved to the village, the street and the home. Most recent and ongoing wars occur within a state rather than between states, with civilians being the prime targets and victims of violent conflict. The international community too often avoids its responsibilities, failing to commit peacekeepers, while others sidestep the United Nations (UN) in pursuit of their own interests. Faced with such inconsistencies in the international community's willingness to intervene, non - violent methods must be given priority. The most important part of the EU's new Rapid Reaction Force is not the missiles, tanks and soldiers, but rather the advantage in civilian crisis management that it presents. The central part must be a civilian peace service based on voluntary civilian organisations trained and competent to serve in crisis management scenarios. We need to incorporate civil society unless we want it to become a shadow of NATO. Two thousand years ago Cicero remarked that there are two ways of resolving conflict: through negotiation or through violence. The first is for human beings, the other for wild beasts. We should have a clear vision of conflict prevention that recognises that there are two ways of solving conflicts: through negotiations and through violence. We are not beasts, but humans. And we must seek to solve conflicts through negotiation, not killing.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and Middle East

57929. The Saviour and Other Europes—Identity, Interests, and Geopolitical Images of Europe in Estonia

Author:
Pami Aalto
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
It is no secret that research on integration within the European Union (EU) is not any more limited to the traditional dispute between intergovernmentalism and neo-functionalism. The debate between these two branches of research is now joined by International Relations (IR) constructivism, comparative politics approaches, and approaches treating the EU as “new governance” (Christiansen et al. 1999: 537). The issue of EU enlargement, moreover, enforces us to enlarge the research agenda horizontally, too, in order to make EU integration comprehensible. One of the metaphors depicting this enlarged research agenda is the “Europe of concentric circles”, with Brussels and EU institutions as the centre (Joenniemi 1993: 209- 12). For Ola Tunander (1997: 32), the emerging perception in the EU centre is that it represents a “Cosmos” of order and peace. This “Cosmos” is surrounded by a concentric circle of less integrated EU members, then a circle of relatively stable states eager for joining the EU, an outer circle of states less prepared to do so, and finally, a periphery representing “Chaos”; a final frontier of Europe which is definitely not about to join the EU in the foreseeable future. Ole Wæver (1997), for his part, speaks of a “Europe of three empires”. The EU is the most important empire, but it is accompanied by the “empire of the Tsars” -- Russia and its sphere of interests -- and the “empire of the Ottomans” -- Turkey with its sphere of interests.
Topic:
Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Israel

57930. The Paradox of Disconnected Coalitions

Author:
J. Steven Brams, A. Michael Jones, and Marc D. Kilgour
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
The paradox of disconnected coalitions is that "disconnected" coalitions can arise from the "connected" (i.e., single-peaked) preferences of as few as five or six players. Two models of coalition formation are analyzed in which the paradox can occur, in both of which players coalesce when they all find each other mutually acceptable: Fallback (FB): Players seek coalition partners by descending lower and lower in their preferences until a majority coalition emerges. Build-Up (BU): Same as FB, except that when nonmajority subcoalitions form, they fuse into composite players, and the descent restarts.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy