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54922. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America
54923. Time to End the Certification Circus
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- More than a decade ago, the U.S. Congress established a procedure whereby each year the president must “certify” that a given country is cooperating with us in the eradication of drug production and trafficking. Governments that lag behind, show little enthusiasm for our crusade, or are found colluding with narco-lords are subject to sanctions. Those “decertified” are denied foreign assistance, as well as U.S. votes for loans at the international financial institutions. Such countries–or, rather, our investors in their countries–also become ineligible for premiums from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Narcotics Trafficking, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America
54924. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America
54925. Arms Sales: An Old Issue Revisited
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 06-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Is the United States on the verge of pushing the major Latin American countries into a new arms race? Time seems to think so, to judge by a long article in the April 14 issue. Subtitled “the inside story of how the Pentagon and big defense contractors got the President to open the way for weapons sales to Latin America,” Time claims to provide the background to the Clinton administration’s current review of arms transfer policy. In so doing, the article revives an old controversy, namely, what role the United States plays (or should play) in the acquisition (or denial) of expensive military hardware, particularly to countries that lie within its own sphere of influence and, in the opinion of arms control experts, humanitarians, and journalists, “don’t need weapons at all.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Arms Trade
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
54926. Mexico’s Midterm Elections: A Major Turning Point?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 07-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On July 6, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, renew a quarter of the Senate, and choose governors and legislators in six states. They will also have the opportunity to elect–for the first time–the governor of Mexico City, a position that, until now, has been appointive rather than elected. These races amount to both a midterm referendum on the stewardship of President Ernesto Zedillo and a crucial test of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Elections, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
54927. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Latin America
54928. Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Brazil?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 11-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On his trip to South America last month, President Clinton made quite a splash in Brazil. After starting off badly–dodging a torrent of manure thrown at his motorcade–he ended the week with the local media singing his praises. The secret of his success? The president (a quick study if there ever was one) immediately grasped that the best way to get along with Brazilians was to repeat back to them–with redoubled enthusiasm–what they told him about themselves. Thus, by the time Clinton had been in the country for thirty-six hours, he was expressing his conviction that Brazil, together with the United States, would lead the hemisphere in the twenty-first century. He also went out of his way to insist on his support for Mercosur, a subregional trade agreement-cum-political alliance of whose existence Clinton was probably only peripherally aware before his trip. In so doing, he seemed to be writing off an entire continent to the Brazilian sphere of influence.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and United States of America
54929. Elite Circulation & Consolidation of Democracy in Poland
- Author:
- Jacek Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The paper examines two aspects of democratic consolidation-institution building and value consensus through analysis of the old and new elites in Poland. It argues that although Polish democracy is established and working, it has not been fully consolidated. Poland represents the case of a ·shallow consolidation," i.e., all elements constituting a consolidated democratic regime are in place, but relations among them do not form a coherent structure typical of mature democracies.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Elites, Consolidation, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland
54930. Unionists Against Unions: Towards Hierarchical Management in Postcommunist Poland
- Author:
- David Ost and Marc Weinstein
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Contrary to standard assumptions about union opposition to economic reform, our survey of firm-level deci sion makers in ninety-five manufacturing enterprises shows that Polish trade union leaders have strong pro-market leanings, and are profoundly skeptical of the utility of institutionalized employee influence in a market economy. This skepticism towards unions is shared by rank-and-file workers, as reported in other surveys. Industrial relations institutions in Poland are becoming less participatory and increasingly hierar chical according to a number of indicators, and this is due not just to coercion from above but acquies cence from below. At the same time, unionists in practice maintain a strong presence in non-private firms. This lingering employee influence stems, paradoxically, from a belief in property rights: unionists believe that private owners should be able to manage their assets as they choose, for this will allegedly benefit workers; but where private owners are lacking, unionists feel employees must act as temporary watchdogs. Long-term prospects for unions thus appear weak, and the weakness of institutions articulating labor inter ests can lead toward the delegitimation of democratic institutions in general. Finally, rational choice and historical institutionalist approaches are seen as unable to explain our findings. An ideational explanation appears to be the most plausible.
- Topic:
- Reform, Unions, Hierarchy, and Post-Communism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland