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54892. Russia Watch No.7, March 2002
- Author:
- Duncan DeVille, Danielle Lussier, Melissa Carr, David Rekhviashvili, Annaliis Abrego, and John Grennan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Russian support for U.S. efforts in the war on terrorism has surprised many Western observers. But this was not the only recent surprise from Moscow — Western advocates for the rule of law in Russia also had much to celebrate in the closing months of 2001. Under strong prodding by President Vladimir Putin, the Duma passed several impressive pieces of reform legislation, including an entirely new Criminal Procedure Code, a potentially revolutionary land reform law, new shareholder protections in amendments to the Joint Stock Company Law, and the first post-Soviet Labor Code.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Moscow
54893. Beyond the ABM Treaty: A Plea For a Limited National Missile Defense System
- Author:
- Tom Sauer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- With approval rates higher than ever thanks to the war against terrorism, President George W. Bush finally did in December 2001 what he had threatened to do on different occasions but what many others thought - or hoped - was only bluff: withdrawing unilaterally from the 1972 Anti- Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Regardless of the rationale or emotions behind or against this decision, it ended a period of uncertainty. Although in principle the Bush administration can still change its mind until June 2002 when the six months withdrawal period expires, most observers believe that this will not happen. Indeed, there are already plans on the table to start building a new test site at Fort Greely in Alaska in the Summer of 2002 that from 2004 onwards could be used as a base for a small ground-based mid-course National Missile Defense (NMD) launch site if needed.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Alaska
54894. Consequence Management in the 1995 Sarin Attacks on the Japanese Subway System
- Author:
- Robyn Pangi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In the early to mid 1990s, a group known as Aum Shinrikyo amassed, and used against innocent civilians, an arsenal of chemical and biological weapons. A large body of literature details the evolution of Aum Shinrikyo, its shocking attacks on a housing complex in Matsumoto and on five subway lines in Tokyo using a chemical weapon, and Japanese society's reaction to the attacks. Not much analysis, however, has been done on the lessons learned about consequence management from the first significant terrorist attacks with weapons of mass destruction to occur in modern times. Recent events in the United States including the dispersal of anthrax spores through the mail and scores of hoaxes alleging use of anthrax have brought the issue of terrorism using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) closer to home. The handling of the Aum Shinrikyo attacks offers the opportunity for policymakers, emergency response personnel, and other relevant professionals to learn about WMD consequence management.
- Topic:
- National Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Asia, Tokyo, and Matsumoto
54895. Winning Plays: Essential Guidance from the Terrorism Line of Scrimmage
- Author:
- Peter S. Beering, Paul M. Maniscalco, Hank Christen, Steven B. Storment, and A.D. Vickery
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper provides recommendations for the “play book” used by policy makers and emergency preparedness practitioners in assembling the elements necessary to effectively plan for and respond to terrorist actions by developing critical relationships, building systems, and setting training and funding priorities. It is not intended to be a model plan but to offer practical guidance, based on our expertise, for planning effectively, spending wisely, and making our nation safer. This document is divided into sections by subject matter, with a brief overview for that particular section followed by a series of recommendations.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
54896. Globalization and the Development of Welfare States in Post-Communist Europe
- Author:
- Mitchell Orenstein and Martine R. Hass
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- How has globalization influenced welfare state development in postcommunist Europe? We focus on the leading East-Central European accession states, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, and show that these states have experienced radically different welfare state developments since 1989 from their neighbors in the former Soviet Union. The first pa rt of the paper proposes that these divergent paths can be explained by a “Europe effect”. We argue that the effects of globalization have differed greatly, depending on a country's position in the international economy and geopolitical relations. We demonstrate that countries closer to the European Union have used welfare state programs to compensate citizens for the traumas of system transition and economic openness, while the welfare systems in the former Soviet states have collapsed to a far greater extent, in terms of spending and effectivness.
- Topic:
- Communism, Globalization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Poland, Soviet Union, Hungary, and Czech Republic
54897. Assessing the Department of Homeland Security
- Author:
- Michael E. O'Hanlon, Peter R. Orszag, James B. Steinberg, Ivo H. Daaldar, James M. Lindsay, Robert E. Litan, Paul C. Light, and I. M. Destler
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- President Bush's June 6 proposal to create a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) would constitute the largest reorganization of the federal government in fifty years. Given the urgency of the terrorist threat, Congress has pledged to act rapidly. It aims to have a bill ready for the President's signature in time for the one-year anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Government, and Terrorism
54898. The Bush National Security Strategy: An Evaluation
- Author:
- Ivo H. Daaldar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- President Bush's first National Security Strategy presents his vision of “a distinctly American internationalism.” Media reports focused on the Strategy's support for preempting emerging threats militarily, but the 31-page document covers a far broader set of important issues. At its core, the Strategy calls for the United States to use its “unparalleled military strength and great economic and political influence” to establish “a balance of power that favors human freedom” and to defeat the threat posed by “terrorists and tyrants.” These are themes that will likely resonate with the American people, who believe that the United States should play a leading role in making the world a safer and better place.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
54899. Non-Cooperative Dynamics of Multi-Agent Teams
- Author:
- Robert L. Axtell
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Results on the formation of multi-agent teams are reviewed and extended. Conditions are specified under which it is individually rational for agents to spontaneously form coalitions in order to engage in collective action. In a cooperative setting the formation of such groups is to be expected. Here we show that in non-cooperative environments—presumably a more realistic context for a variety of both human and software agents—self-organized coalitions are capable of extracting welfare improvements. The Nash equilibria of these coalitional formation games are demonstrated to always exist and be unique. Certain free rider problems in such group formation dynamics lead to the possibility of dynamically unstable Nash equilibria, depending on the nature of intra-group compensation and coalition size. Yet coherent groups can still form, if only temporarily, as demonstrated by computational experiments. Such groups of agents can be either long-lived or transient. The macroscopic structure of these emergent 'bands' of agents is stationary in sufficiently large populations, despite constant adaptation at the agent level. It is argued that assumptions concerning attainment of agent-level (Nash) equilibrium, so ubiquitous in conventional economics and game theory, are difficult to justify behaviorally and highly restrictive theoretically, and are thus unlikely to serve either as fertile design objectives or robust operating principles for realistic multi-agent systems.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
54900. The Business of Congress After September 11: A Look Back and at What's Ahead for 2002
- Author:
- Sarah Binder and Bill Frenzel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The terrorist attacks on September 11, which caused plane crashes in New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., resulted in thousands of deaths, billions of dollars in damage, and an American public that was stunned by the events it had watched unfold on television. In addition to the heavy emotional toll, federal, state, and local governments scrambled to address new policy problems, including massive clean-up efforts, compensation for victims, and homeland security.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, New York, America, Washington, and Pennsylvania