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54882. Training for Future Conflicts
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This is the second 21st century Defense Science Board report on military training. The report itself has a training goal: instruct and convince the acquisition and personnel communities to recognize instinctively that (1) military proficiency is as dependent on the warriors who operate weapon systems as it is on the weapon system technology, and (2) a superb way to waste personnel or system acquisition money is to ignore training, or to tacitly allow training to pay the bills for acquisition or personnel system flaws in those more measurable arenas.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
54883. Base Structure Report Fiscal Year 2003
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Since 1999, the Department of Defense has used its real property inventory as the basis for the annual publication of the Base Structure Report. This report contains a comprehensive listing of installations and sites used by the Department, summarizes the current facilities inventory, and provides other basic information concerning the locations.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
54884. IT Investment and Hicks' Composite-Good Theorem: The U.S. Experience
- Author:
- Jaime Marquez and Shing-Yi B. Wang
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We study whether aggregation residuals in U.S. private investment in information technology (IT) exhibit a predictable pattern that is consistent with Hicks' composite-good theorem and that may be used for forecasting. To determine whether one can extract such a pattern, we apply the general-to-specific strategy developed by Krolzig and Hendry (2001). This strategy combines ordinary least squares with a computer-automated algorithm that selects a specification based on coefficients' statistical significance, residual properties, and parameter constancy. Then, we derive the testable implications from Hicks' theorem and evaluate them with econometric formulations; we find qualified support for these implications. Having obtained these formulations, we evaluate their ex-post predictive accuracy and compare it to that of an autoregressive model. The key finding is that ignoring movement in relative prices results in a loss of information for predicting aggregation residuals.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
54885. Afghanistan: Seeds of Hope
- Author:
- David Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In 2000, an overwhelming 97 percent of Afghan girls did not attend school, and today only about 20 percent are literate. Tens of thousands of Afghan girls are now attending school for the first time in years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
54886. Distance, Time, and Specialization
- Author:
- Carolyn Evans and James Harrigan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Time is money, and distance matters. We model the interaction of these truisms, and show the implications for global specialization and trade: products where timely delivery is important will be produced near the source of final demand, where wages will be higher as a result. In the model, timely delivery is important because it allows retailers to respond to fluctuating final demand without holding costly inventories, and timely delivery is only possible from nearby locations. Using a unique dataset that allows us to measure the retail demand for timely delivery, we show that the sources of US apparel imports have shifted in the way predicted by the model, with products where timeliness matters increasingly imported from nearby countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
54887. Net Foreign Assets and Imperfect Pass-through: The Consumption Real Exchange Rate Anomaly
- Author:
- Jorge D. Selaive and Vicente Tuesta
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- An unresolved issue in international macroeconomics is the apparent lack of risk-sharing across countries, which contradicts the prediction of models based on the assumption of complete markets. We assess the importance of financial frictions in this issue by constructing an incomplete market model with stationary net foreign assets (NFA) and imperfect pass-through (IPT). In this paper, there is a cost of bond holdings that allows us to incorporate the dynamics of NFA into the risk-sharing condition. On theoretical grounds, our results suggest that the dynamics of NFA may account for the lack of risk-sharing across countries. In addition, the IPT mechanism, by closing the current account channel, does not help to explain this feature of the data. On empirical grounds, we test the risk-sharing condition derived in the paper, and we find that growth factors of consumption and real exchange rates behave in a manner that may be consistent with a significant role for the net foreign asset position.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
54888. An Empirical Analysis of Inflation in OECD Countries
- Author:
- Jaime Marquez and Jane Ihrig
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- One of the most remarkable macroeconomic developments of the past decade has been the widespread decline in inflation despite declines in unemployment rates. For the United States, these seemingly contradictory developments have been reconciled in terms of three factors: (1) an acceleration in productivity, (2) structural changes in labor markets that lowered the natural unemployment rate (NAIRU), and (3) improved credibility of monetary policy. Here we ask whether comparable factors were at work in foreign industrial countries. To address this question, we empirically characterize the relationship between inflation, the unemployment rate, and structural factors using an extended Phillips curve model with quarterly data through 1994. By undertaking counterfactual simulations from 1995 to 2001, we quantify the separate contributions of unemployment-rate movements, labor-market reforms (that affected the NAIRU), and productivity developments on inflation. In line with previous work on the United States, we find that productivity advancements were the main structural factor reducing inflation in the United States. For foreign countries, persistent labor-market slack was the main factor exerting downward pressure on inflation. This persistence stemmed, in part, from structural reforms that lowered the NAIRU while the unemployment rate was declining.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
54889. Acquisition of National Security Space Programs
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Undersecretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics) and the Secretary of the Air Force cosponsored the Joint Defense Science Board (DSB)/Air Force Science Advisory Board (AFSAB) Task Force on the Acquisition of National Security Space Programs and directed the task force to Recommend improvements to the acquisition of space programs from initiation to deployment; Assess the nation's dependency on space; Characterize problems by looking at underlying causes and systemic issues such as cost growth and schedule delays that impact all space programs; and Analyze the Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS), Future Imaging Architecture (FIA), and Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV).
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
54890. Annual Report of the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) is an independent federal government agency created by the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA) to monitor religious freedom in other countries and advise the President, Secretary of State, and Congress on how best to promote it. The Commission is the only government commission in the world with a mandate to review and report violations of the internationally-guaranteed right to freedom of religion and belief worldwide. By providing reliable information, analysis, and careful and creative policy recommendations, the Commission gives the U.S. government and the American public the tools necessary to promote religious freedom throughout the world.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Human Rights, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States