Publication Year: - CIAO Search Results

201. Pressure points: Africa’s health systems amid global aid contraction

Author:: Joseph Asunka, Boniface Dulani, and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Since the COVID-19 pandemic, African governments have been compelled to reassess how best to protect hard-won public health gains while ensuring equitable and reliable care. These reassessments are taking place against a background of shifting geopolitical alignments, tightening fiscal space, and growing public expectations of quality public services. This reckoning intensified in 2025 with the disbanding of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the cancellation of major foreign-funded health programmes, effectively dismantling one of the pillars of Africa’s health-support architecture.
Topic:: Health, Foreign Aid, Social Services, Public Health, USAID, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

202. Nuclear Energy’s New Momentum: Can World Capacity Triple by 2050?

Author:: Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The second Nuclear Energy Summit highlighted renewed global momentum to expand nuclear power as countries face volatile fossil-fuel supplies amid ongoing Middle East tensions. With governments pledging to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, nuclear energy is once again being positioned as a reliable low-carbon pillar of energy security. However, the speed and credibility of this expansion will ultimately depend not only on financing and technology, but also on regulatory institutions, industrial capacity, and a skilled workforce needed to govern it safely.
Topic:: Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

203. Global Water Bankruptcy: Southeast Asia’s Water Future Is a Peace and Security Issue

Author:: Adam Hansen and Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: As the world enters an era of water bankruptcy, Southeast Asia faces a future with increased competition over shared water resources. With data centres reliant on water-intensive cooling systems, adding to the region’s drivers of water insecurity, stronger multistakeholder cooperation and confidence-building measures are crucial to reduce tensions and enhance sustainable water management.
Topic:: Security, Natural Resources, Water, Peace, Competition, and Data Centers
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

204. Food Security in ASEAN’s 2026 Agenda: Perspectives on Human Security and Inclusiveness Amidst Crises

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Kayven Tan, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Farmers form the backbone of ASEAN agriculture but are increasingly vulnerable amidst crises and longer-term structural challenges, including ageing, urbanisation, and natural disasters. A human security approach that prioritises these vulnerabilities is integral to resilience.
Topic:: Agriculture, Natural Disasters, Urbanization, Food Security, Human Security, ASEAN, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Asia and Global Focus

205. The UN Climate Regime and the US Withdrawal

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Trump administration announced the US withdrawal from the international climate regime earlier this year. One possible explanation lies in the growing influence of the IPCC’s scientific authority in domestic spheres, which may have altered the perceived costs and benefits of continued participation. Despite the US absence, the UNFCCC remains an important platform for international climate cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

206. Securing ASEAN’s Food Resilience Amidst the Middle East Conflict

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Kayven Tan, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Middle East conflict is set to have a double-whammy impact on both ASEAN’s import of fertilisers, and its energy-intensive fertiliser production. The timing is critical as in the coming months, the five major crops, including rice, are being planted in ASEAN.
Topic:: Agriculture, Food Security, Resilience, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Middle East and Asia

207. Effective Sustainable Development

Author:: Barry Buzan
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: How can we make the concept of sustainable development more effective? Finding a pathway towards effective sustainable development (ESD) becomes more urgent as global warming specifically, and the Anthropocene crisis generally, intensify. It helps to take a long view of development and its role in global society (the anthroposphere) before focusing on what characteristics ESD needs to have.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Anthropocene, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Asia

208. Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh - democracy restored by revolution

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The first democratic elections held in Bangladesh for 18 years, on 12 February this year, were won by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tariq Zia Rahman. This marks the end of the transition period following the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024 and the rebirth of democracy. The biggest challenges for the new government will be to strengthen the rule of law, accelerate economic growth and improve relations with India. The EU, which supported the transition process, should become more involved in assisting the democratic government and economic cooperation.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Democracy, Economic Growth, Rule of Law, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

209. Avoiding a Long War - Objectives and Conditions for the US Attack on Iran

Author:: Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The American operation in Iran may be prolonged, lasting several months instead of the planned few weeks. The low public support of Americans for intervention and the economic effects of rising oil prices are unlikely to change the US administration’s stance. Difficulties in completely eliminating the threats posed by Iran may prompt Donald Trump to increase military involvement, including the use of special forces or the launch of a ground invasion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Military Intervention, Armed Conflict, and Energy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

210. Conclusion of Negotiations on the EU-India Trade Agreement

Author:: Patryk Kugiel and Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The most important outcome of the 16th EU–India summit, which took place on January 27 in New Delhi, was the announcement of an agreement on a trade deal. When it comes into force, it will create one of the largest free trade areas in the world and open up a huge Indian market for goods and services from the EU. At a time of growing protectionism in international trade and power-based politics, strengthening economic ties between the EU and India takes on a strategic dimension.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

211. The Impact of Purges in the Chinese Army on Its Effectiveness

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: Xi Jinping, as the Party’s secretary general, continues to strengthen his personal oversight of the Chinese armed forces, as evidenced by disciplinary actions against Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Combined with the purges that began in 2022, the growing atmosphere of uncertainty, and the increasing pressure to demonstrate loyalty to Xi, this raises the risk that the authorities will misjudge the condition of their armed forces. This may increase the likelihood of escalation, for example, towards Taiwan.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Reform, Xi Jinping, Escalation, Loyalty, and Purge
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

212. Diplomacy in the Foreground. The New EU Migration Policy Framework

Author:: Jolanta Szymańska
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The migration, asylum and visa strategies, presented at the end of January this year by the European Commission, set the framework for EU migration policy for the coming years. According to both documents' assumptions, migration diplomacy is intended to support the Union's security and global competitiveness priorities. The planned reforms aim to eliminate abuses of the asylum and visa system and to attract skilled workers and investment to the EU. The implementation of the strategy will be challenged by both instability in Europe's neighbourhood and the persistent reluctance of member states to accept migrants.
Topic:: Diplomacy, European Union, Asylum, Visa, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

213. The war in Iran: a test of the Gulf states' economic resilience

Author:: Julia Sochacka
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: Forecasts of the long-term economic consequences of the war in Iran for the Gulf states are unequivocally negative. The scale of the losses depends on whether the strategies for building economic resilience implemented by these countries can withstand the shock caused by regional destabilisation. Faced with Iran taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, the EU’s top priority in the short term will be to ensure energy security, and in the long term to diversify its economic partnerships.
Topic:: Security, Economics, European Union, Resilience, Energy, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

214. Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Heightens Tensions in the Horn of Africa

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state on 26 December last year triggered a series of dangerous processes in the Horn of Africa. These could lead to an escalation of armed conflicts within Somaliland’s declared borders and in its immediate vicinity. The EU should be guided in this matter by the criteria of legality and stability in the wider Horn of Africa.
Topic:: European Union, Borders, Armed Conflict, and Recognition
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Somaliland

215. Global development policy and the New World Disorder: the Trump Administration's delivery of a high-voltage shockwave to multilateral norms, institutional commitments and long-standing principles

Author:: Stephan Klingebiel and Andy Sumner
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Global development policy is a particularly revealing field in which the Trump administration combines crude transactionalism with a high level of ideological commitment, namely an authoritarian libertarianism oriented toward elite interests. This is coupled with, at times, a chaotic absence of tactical or strategic coherence. With Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, a significant phase in international affairs, including global development policy, began. This policy brief traces the evolution of the US approach to development cooperation and exposes how Trump's approach represents an overtly aggressive assault, delivering a high voltage shockwave to global sustainable development policy, undermining multilateral norms, institutional commitments and long-standing principles of international solidarity. The United States (US) has played a decisive role in the conception and evolution of global development policy since the mid-20th century. From the establishment of the post-Second World War order onward, the US shaped the normative, political and organizational foundations of development cooperation, often setting agendas, defining standards, and providing leadership and personnel for key multilateral institutions. Early reconstruction efforts such as the Marshall Plan and the establishment of the World Bank embedded development within a broader framework of power politics, positioning aid as both a tool of reconstruction and geopolitical influence. Since January 2025, US development cooperation has undergone a dramatic rupture. The administration rapidly withdrew from multilateral institutions, cut budgets, and de facto dissolved USAID, transferring residual functions to the State Department. This shift was accompanied by conspiracy narratives and an explicit rejection of multilateral norms, marking a sharp departure from previous Republican and Democratic approaches alike. The brief conceptualises this shift as the emergence of a “New Washington Dissensus”: a model of transactional, nationalist development cooperation that treats aid as an instrument of power rather than a global public good. Under this paradigm, development engagement is ideologically conditional, hostile to climate and equity agendas, oriented toward migration control, and explicitly transactional. The Trump administration's National Security Strategy (December 2025) is consistent with this in the sense that it frames an “America First” approach that narrows US priorities to “core, vital national interests” and places strong emphasis on Western Hemisphere pre-eminence via a stated “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. For global development, foreign assistance and development finance are thus instruments of strategic competition and commercial diplomacy. US agencies are mobilized to back US commercial positioning. The consequences are dramatic and systemic. The US retreat has destabilized the global development architecture and intensified geopolitical fragmentation. For many countries in the Global South, this represents a watershed moment, creating both new room for maneuver and new dependencies as states pursue multi-alignment strategies amid intensifying great-power rivalry. At the same time, humanitarian impacts are severe. Overall, the brief concludes that development policy has entered a new phase, which is narrower, more instrumental and overtly geopolitical,and is reshaping not only US engagement but the future of global development policy itself.
Topic:: Development, Multilateralism, Institutions, Norms, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

216. Making global benefits pay: the World Bank reform to support global public goods

Author:: Jakob Schwab
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Global public goods (GPGs) are goods that are produced locally but have global effects. GPGs are essential for securing global development. The climate and biodiversity crises, pandemics, as well as fragility, conflict and violence are threatening livelihoods and well-being around the world, and addressing them would have enormous positive economic and social effects. However, the cross-border externalities involved are not being fully taken into account by countries, and hence these GPGs are still underprovided compared with what would be globally optimal. One year ago, the World Bank launched the Framework for Financial Incentives (FFI) to strengthen the support of GPGs in its operations. This novel instrument encourages countries to implement investment projects and policies that have positive spillovers to other countries by offering targeted financial incentives. As a core element of the World Bank's Evolution reform, the FFI reflects the recognition that relatively modest investments in client countries can generate substantial global benefits – for other developing and emerging economies as well as for the Bank's shareholder countries. Its challenges lie in incorporating the non-financial aspects of GPGs and the multi-faceted motivations to provide them in bankable operations. This policy brief discusses the relevance of GPGs for development and presents the World Bank's approach to supporting their provision in client countries through the FFI. The key takeaways are: • GPGs are not all those that are commonly shared or agreed upon as goals but are defined by the specific problem structure that the involved cross-border externalities entail. • Investment in GPGs can generate substantial benefits – not only for developing and emerging economies, but also for high-income countries that make up the World Bank's largest shareholders. Consequently, both out of enlightened self-interest and as a cost-effective way to advance global sustainable development at a time when international development budgets are undergoing significant reductions, shareholder countries should increase their contributions to the FFI. This applies in particular to those provided to the Livable Planet Fund, which provides the essential grant financing for countries' GPG-related projects. • To retain and strengthen confidence among stakeholders, the FFI must deploy its resources efficiently. This implies offering grants only when projects' overall domestic benefits are insufficient to motivate countries to provide GPGs on their own, and extending loans instead when client countries have sufficient self-interest to ensure repayment. The assessment of costs and benefits is complex, but it should improve with experience and become increasingly standardized. To signal its effectiveness, the FFI should pursue full transparency in its allocation decisions and undertake systematic impact assessments.
Topic:: Development, World Bank, Reform, and Public Goods
Political Geography:: Global Focus

217. Beyond the wage channel: climate-smart public works programs and household resilience in Malawi

Author:: Tekalign Gutu Sakketa, Francesco Burchi, Sophia Schubert, and Donald Makoka
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: One of the main arguments for implementing public works programs (PWPs) instead of other social protection schemes such as cash transfers is that the assets created through these programs themselves can generate medium- to long-term benefits. This is particularly important as the costs for supervision and the construction materials can account for up to 70 per cent of program budgets. Despite this, there is scarce empirical evidence on PWPs' effects through the “asset channel”: indeed; most studies have focused solely on the traditional “wage channel”. To bridge this gap, this paper examines whether and how assets created under Malawi's Climate-Smart Enhanced Public Works Program (CS-EPWP) – a program recently implemented by the government of Malawi and funded by the World Bank – strengthen the resilience of households to climate shocks such as droughts and floods. The paper relies on case study analysis using primary qualitative data based on focus group discussions and key informant interviews with different stakeholders at the national, district and community levels. Interviews were conducted during fieldwork in September 2024 in two southern districts of Malawi highly affected by climate change. The analysis is complemented by site visits and quantitative survey data on asset quality. By combining these methods, we find that the CS-EPWP generates durable, community-maintained assets, which in turn enhance households' capacity to cope with and adapt to climate shocks. In particular, land-based assets provide multiple benefits for both households and communities, while forest-based interventions are expected to generate similar long-term gains, although further research is needed to confirm their (long-term) impacts. To maximize the impact of climate-smart public works programs, policymakers and donors should align asset creation with climate objectives and adopt participatory approaches to ensure their relevance, maintenance and long-term sustainability.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Resilience, and Public Works
Political Geography:: Africa and Malawi

218. What do the 2015 SDG negotiations teach us for a beyond-2030 framework?

Author:: Paula von Haaren and Axel Berger
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – the global framework establishing 17 universal and interconnected goals to guide sustainable development efforts – was adopted in 2015 following a uniquely participative and ambitious process. A decade on, it is increasingly evident that most of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are unlikely to be achieved by 2030 as originally envisioned. Discussions about a follow-up framework beyond 2030 are gaining momentum ahead of the SDG Summit in September 2027. This paper evaluates the process design, inclusiveness, negotiating strategies, fora and fault lines in 2015 and discusses to what extent the lessons learned can be applied to negotiations for a potential follow-up framework. We find that several process design elements and negotiation strategies, as well as actor composition, fostered trust and ownership, reduced polarization and enabled agreements on ambitious targets. In particular, the process benefited from the inclusion of diverse, non-hierarchical actor communities, a long, science-based stocktaking phase, the breaking up of traditional negotiating blocks, transparency, and emphasis on common interests. We also identify several recurring fault lines that are overwhelmingly still relevant today. Apart from the above best practices of the process leading to the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, we identify several shortcomings that should be addressed in the beyond-2030 negotiations: inefficiencies due to competing tracks for the development of the goals; top-down agenda-setting processes leading to less ambitious outcomes; barriers to participation of and accountability towards some marginalized and informal actors; and the watering down of goals and indicators – including non-tangible targets and unresolved inconsistencies and trade-offs within the agenda. Finally, the paper argues that the beyond-2030 negotiations will take place in a context that is similar to the process that led to the SDGs but is nevertheless in many ways more challenging than in 2015, amidst intensifying crises, political shifts and loss of trust.
Topic:: Development and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

219. Geopolitics and development in Central Asia: exploring opportunities for middle powers

Author:: Hyeyoung Woo
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Central Asia has emerged as a key region where the convergence of geopolitics and development cooperation is most visible. Major powers are redefining their approaches: Japan combines official development assistance (ODA) with commercial partnerships to advance connectivity and reform; the EU is emphasizing a sustainable infrastructure and governance-oriented approach; the US is expected to catalyze private investment rather than direct aid; China deepens its regional presence through the Belt and Road Initiative; while Russia leverages historical and security ties to maintain influence. Meanwhile, middle powers – countries that do not wield vast influence like major powers but possess substantial capacity to shape international events – are exploring new opportunities for engagement. Türkiye positions itself as a bridge between advanced economies and the Global South, emphasizing connectivity and energy cooperation through the Middle Corridor and the Organization of Turkic States. South Korea's 2025 ODA Strategy for Central Asia identifies the region as a strategic partner for shared growth, integrating pragmatic diplomacy with value-based cooperation. By leveraging their soft power and policy experience, these middle powers offer a distinctive model for development partnership. Central Asian governments are responding to a changing international environment by diversifying partnerships through regional integration and more strategic engagement with development partners.
Topic:: Development, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Strategic Partnerships, Middle Powers, and Private Investment
Political Geography:: Central Asia

220. The decline of French agriculture in Europe

Author:: Bernard Bourget
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The farmers' protests of the winter 2025-2026 are an amplified replica of those of two years ago, mainly in France, due in particular to competition between, on the one hand, the FNSEA[1] (Fédération nationale des syndicats d’exploitants agricoles) and the Young Farmers, and on the other hand, the very aggressive Coordination Rurale and the Confédération Paysanne. These protests focused on two issues: - The management of the contagious nodular dermatitis (CND) crisis, more specifically the opposition to the slaughter of all infected herds, even though this radical method has proven effective in Savoie and Haute-Savoie, where it has eradicated the disease. - The free trade agreement between the European Union and the four MERCOSUR countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay), which is currently awaiting approval. It is also the expression of a deep unease among French farmers, who have faced a series of difficulties in recent years that have not been experienced with the same intensity by their counterparts in other Member States. The causes of these difficulties therefore need to be analyzed. In Jean-Luc Demarty’s opinion[2], the main cause is the loss of competitiveness of French agriculture on the European market, which is reflected in an increase in agricultural income in France of only 17% between 2010 and 2024, well below the European average (77%) and that of Spain (79%), Poland (86%) or Italy (170%). The reasons why the agri-food trade balance of France has collapsed must also be examined. It was only positive of 200 Million euros in 2025. In recent years, French agriculture has had to grapple with health, climate and economic crises. The health crises have affected cattle (epizootic haemorrhagic disease and contagious nodular dermatosis), sheep (bluetongue) and poultry farms (avian influenza), while pig farms are still threatened by African swine fever. Climate change is having a severe impact on French agriculture, with successive droughts, floods and spring frosts. While health and climate crises also affect agriculture in other Member States, it is in the area of foreign trade that French agriculture is clearly hardest hit, particularly by moves by China and the United States to target wines and spirits, the leading export item for the French agri-food industry. The cereal sector, which is the second largest agri-food export item, is suffering from competition from the Black Sea countries and, above all, from Russia's offensive for wheat on African markets. The Algerian market was thus lost in 2025 in the context of that country's dispute with France, while the price of wheat is currently below $200 per tonne, (below the average production cost for French farmers), and the European Commission wants to tax imports of nitrogen fertilisers from Russia and Belarus as part of the carbon border adjustment mechanism.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, European Union, Protests, Free Trade, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and France

221. Hybrid threats: from geopolitics to internal security

Author:: Jean Mafart
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Although the concept of hybrid threats is now widely accepted despite its rather vague nature, there remains a blind spot in European discussions and strategic thinking: the phenomenon is still rarely addressed from the perspective of internal security policy. It has long been recognised that hybrid threats – whether cyberattacks, arson, disinformation, interference in electoral processes or the exploitation of migration flows – can strike within our borders. The European Union acknowledged this: the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) committees regularly address the issue and the Commission gives it considerable attention in its internal security strategy of April 2025. In fact, it is mainly on the basis of hybrid threats that the document justifies the proposal to double the staff of Europol. However, the emergence of these threats in the internal security policies of the EU and its Member States raises important questions, both in terms of principles and operations, most of which remain unanswered. It is instructive to browse through the wealth of analytical and policy papers available on hybrid threats: the geopolitical dimension of the phenomenon still predominates, and while authors sometimes address the resilience of European states and societies, there is almost nothing to be found on how to respond to these threats in the context of internal security policy or on the necessary adaptation of the instruments of this policy. In other words, it is as if the concept of hybrid threats, which originally concerned defence and foreign policy circles, had forcefully found its way into European internal security policy and had not yet been fully assimilated into the internal sphere. If we add to this the fact that European internal security policy itself remains little known despite the considerable proportions it has taken on in recent decades, the current state of strategic thinking is not conducive to the consolidation of a strategy to deal with hybrid threats in their internal dimension. However, a strategy of this kind would be very useful, following the example of what has long existed within NATO and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) for the external dimension: does the issue of hybrid threats, now referred to in every context but without a coherent approach, risk leading European internal security policy astray, diverting it from its primary purpose ? and how can the competences of the Union, its Member States and other actors be harmoniously combined when hybrid threats blur the line between internal and external security, or even between national security – which is in principle the remit of the Member States – and the competences of the Union?
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, Geopolitics, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Europe

222. The European strategic approach to technological security: the challenges posed by China

Author:: Earl Wang
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: [1] Not only the US, but the EU and its Member States are also facing Chinese restrictions on foreign critical tech infrastructure. European telecom companies such as Nokia and Ericsson witness a drop by two-thirds in their market shares in China as compared to 2020. On the other way around, Chinese ‘high-risk suppliers’ of telecom networks such as Huawei and ZTE only encountered a 5-10% decline in Europe since EU institution and countries adopted the 5G cybersecurity toolbox in 2020. When it comes to European security in the cyber realm, we can also observe direct Chinese threats. Recent public cases of cyberattacks against France and the Czech Republic reminded us – again – of cybersecurity challenges from China which was also underlined by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Among other topics, critical technologies, cyber and digital infrastructure top the EU’s list of tech security preoccupation with regard to China. This paper provides an analysis of the strategic formulation of EU institutions and European countries on tech security vis-à-vis China from 2013 to 2022. Cases of countries covered in the paper include France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, and the United Kingdom. The paper is structured as follows. The first part studies the gradual awareness of security implications of Chinese investment in European critical technologies following China’s Made In China 2025 policy. In the second part, the paper examines the security threats posed by Chinese companies’ engagement in European digital infrastructure and the coordinated approach of the EU to secure 5G networks. The third part introduces the EU framework for investment screening as a new tool to address security concerns deriving from foreign investment in and acquisition of critical technologies and digital infrastructure. In the fourth part, the paper investigates European cybersecurity agencies and how cybersecurity has become a fast-growing concern of the EU and European countries in its relations with China. This paper showcases that the European Union and its Member States have incorporated the increasing link between security and technology in their strategic formulation of policy on China. More importantly, the effectiveness of the EU’s strategy in tech security highly relies on the coordination and cooperation among Member States and between the EU and national levels.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: China and Europe

223. From a set of values to a normative framework: the European Union, world champion of women's rights

Author:: Helen Levy and Juliette Bachschmidt
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: In 2026, Europe is set to become an even stronger bastion for women's rights. A pioneer on the world stage, the European Union is translating its values into a set of guarantees to ensure the best possible situation for women. Behind certain regulations lies a political project with a new ambition: to transform the ethical values that form the very foundations of the European project into a tangible reality. In this area, European standards, which are always the result of discussions and compromises between the co-legislators – the Parliament and the Council – are proving to be a driving force for progress where decades of recommendations and good intentions have failed. The world order is being disrupted by Donald Trump's return to the White House and the rise to power of leaders who are far from committed to the cause of women and who are challenging the progress made over the last century in terms of gender equality. Against this backdrop, the European Union is seeking to uphold its core values by charting a new course based on its normative power. And so, in 2026, gender equality in Europe is set to take on a new dimension, no longer just an ideal to which everyone should aspire, but a legal obligation backed by performance requirements and, failing that, sanctions. Although imperfect, the European Union remains a bastion for women's rights. As we approach the celebration of Women's Rights Day on 8 March, the European Union can take pride in some of the steps forward it has made on behalf of women, particularly in the areas of economic empowerment, political participation and leadership, health and well-being, education and skills development.
Topic:: European Union, Women, Ethics, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Europe

224. EU-India Renewed Strategic Partnership and Its Significance in the Shifting Global Landscape

Author:: Karine de Vergeron
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The current mandate of President Trump is radically altering the close and longstanding ties that had been forged between India and the United States over the past years as America is now moving towards a more isolationist policy. It is striking to note that the US National Defence Strategy, released last January, puts the protection of the U.S. homeland and its Western Hemisphere before confronting adversaries such as Beijing or Moscow. India is not even mentioned. This new American geostrategic priority represents a major change from former US Democrat and Republican administrations, including President Donald Trump’s first term, which had made the deterrence of China and thus, close cooperation with India, a core component of U.S. efforts. In this context of geopolitical volatility and fragmentation, the new rapprochement between India and the EU is crucially deemed to strengthen stability within the international system.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe and India

225. Hungary as a Trailblazer: the Rise of Illiberal Democracy and its Discontents

Author:: Péter Magyar
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: In the fast-changing political landscape of Europe, Hungary has set a controversial example of a new style of governance[1]. Viktor Orbán’s Hungary is often seen as the pioneer of illiberal democracy, rejecting liberal democratic norms in favour of centralizing power, manipulating narratives, and eroding the checks and balances of the state. Orbán’s rise and methods have had a profound impact on the political trajectories of other European nations, influencing populist leaders from Poland to Serbia, but also from France to the Netherlands. Yet, Hungary’s transformation and its broader implications for the future of European politics remain largely misunderstood by many in the West.
Topic:: Governance, Populism, Illiberal Democracy, Viktor Orbán, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

226. Skilled immigration and the competitiveness of the European Union: attractiveness and policy options

Author:: Olena Oliinyk
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Migration today remains one of the most complex and politically sensitive issues on the European agenda. It encompasses a wide range of processes: from irregular migrants and forced displacement caused by wars and climate crises to the mobility of students, entrepreneurs, and skilled professionals. This multidimensional nature explains why regulating migration flows within the European Union remains an exceptionally complex task that requires balancing humanitarian obligations, the controls of external borders and migratory flows, as well as labour market needs.
Topic:: Immigration, European Union, Labor Market, Migration Policy, and Skilled Migration
Political Geography:: Europe

227. Labor Market Imbalances and Immigration Policies

Author:: Young-ook Jang
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Korea now faces rapid demographic decline due to ultra‑low fertility and accelerated aging. According to Statistics Korea, the population peaked at 51.75 million in 2024 and is projected to fall below 40 million by 2065. This demographic contraction is expected to intensify labor market imbalances. Several studies project widening labor shortages over the next 5–10 years. The Korea Employment Information Service (2025) suggests that the labor force will decline from 2030 and approximately 820,000 more workers will be needed to fill the labor demand by 2033. The Korea Labor Institute (2024, 2025) also estimated that a shortage of 2.98 million workers (2024–2028) will expand to 6.18 million (2025–2033). The degree of labor shortages varies by sectors and regions. ICT services, healthcare and welfare, logistics, hospitality, and agriculture are the sectors that are exposed to the highest risk of labor shortages. Some provinces are already experiencing difficulties in hiring qualified workers due to declining population. Apart from the demographic change, labor market imbalance is intensified by structural changes due to geopolitical and technological factors. Geopolitical factors—including strategic competition between the United States and China, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine war—have heightened global supply chain instability, prompting major economies to strengthen domestic and regional competitiveness in key advanced industries such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors, and secondary batteries. This, combined with the decline in the economically active population across advanced economies, has exacerbated labor shortages in strategic high-tech sectors. In response, major countries are actively implementing policies to attract highly skilled foreign talent, which puts pressure on the supply of talent in Korea. Labor shortages increase production costs, reduce corporate profitability, heighten inflationary pressures, and undermine potential economic growth. Attracting more foreign labor in both skilled and unskilled occupations is increasingly being considered as a potential response to labor market imbalances, particularly labor shortages. However, several challenges remain to be addressed. These include intensifying competition among advanced economies to attract talent, conflict between free-market principles and existing (often rigid) visa regimes, and the wide-ranging economic, social, cultural, and political consequences of immigration. Resolving labor market imbalances is essential to sustaining long-term growth potential. Although foreign workers cannot fully offset aggregate labor shortages, they may be able to alleviate supply constraints in specific industries and skill categories. Promotion of labor mobility can be a plausible option as long as it is accompanied by policy measures to minimize associated side effects. Jang et al. (2025) conducted two empirical analyses to estimate the effect of immigration on the labor market imbalances. First, the study examines the impact of the free labor movement in the EU on labor market imbalances. The EU is an early adopter of immigration and a supranational entity operating one of the most advanced and proactive immigration regimes. In particular, examining the effects of the EU’s flexible and inclusive immigration policies can provide meaningful policy implications for Korea. Second, the report analyzes Korea’s Employment Permit System (EPS) to assess the extent to which domestic policy measures have contributed to alleviating labor shortages. Noting the expansion of the EPS—a low-skilled labor inflow mechanism—during the post–COVID-19 recovery phase, the study quantitatively evaluates how effectively this policy has mitigated labor shortages across regions. This brief will summarize the key methods and results of those analyses and derive policy implications from them.
Topic:: Demographics, Immigration, Economy, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

228. Outward FDI and Hollowing-out: Towards the Strategic Reallocation of Korean Industries

Author:: Nam Seok Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Following a prolonged period of negotiations under the “reciprocal tariff” regime, Korea, similar to other major exporters like the European Union and Japan, secured reduced tariff rates conditional upon committing to large-scale local investments in the United States. The U.S. administration has consistently placed the reconstruction of American manufacturing and domestic job creation at the top of its policy agenda. This commitment is so steadfast that Washington recently hinted at the possibility of re-imposing higher tariffs, citing Korea’s lukewarm implementation of the agreed-upon investment pledges. Crucially, this surge in investment is not merely a political concession but reflects a fundamental restructuring of global value chains. As geopolitical uncertainties intensify, Korean firms are pivoting from a traditional strategy of cost minimization to one of risk minimization. By establishing production bases directly within the United States, these companies aim to insulate themselves from future trade barriers and secure stable access to their most critical market, effectively decoupling their supply chains from geopolitical flashpoints. The scale of capital Korea has pledged to invest locally in the U.S. is staggering, potentially large enough to induce fundamental shifts in the valuation of the Korean won. The bilateral agreement encompasses a monumental package: USD 200 billion in direct cash investments and USD 150 billion in shipbuilding cooperation. These plans are rapidly materializing, evidenced by the U.S. government’s recent release of “America’s Maritime Action Plan,” which explicitly designates Korea as a key partner in rebuilding U.S. naval and commercial maritime capabilities. Beyond the maritime sector, this investment wave spans across Korea’s core strategic industries, including semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries, and advanced electronics. Major Korean conglomerates are rapidly breaking ground on large-scale manufacturing facilities across key U.S. states. This broad-based migration of manufacturing capacity signifies a deep integration of Korea’s industrial ecosystem with the U.S. supply chain, moving far beyond simple assembly operations to include high-value-added production processes. It is unprecedented for Korea to execute outward FDI (OFDI) of this magnitude based on a bilateral government agreement. Consequently, this unparalleled volume of capital outflow has sparked intense debate and varied projections among economists regarding its potential impact on the domestic economy.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Tariffs, Exports, Industry, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

229. Korea’s Critical Minerals Agreements: From MOUs, To Three Strategic Pillars

Author:: Wonseok Choi
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Korea’s push for critical minerals security is anchored in a broader economic security agenda that treats upstream inputs as strategic dependencies for high-tech industries (notably semiconductors and secondary batteries). In 2023, the government introduced a national strategy to secure a reliable supply of critical minerals with an explicit target of reducing Korea’s heavy reliance on imports from a small set of supplier countries—from around 80% to 50% by 2030. This strategy operationalizes “critical minerals” through a two-tier classification: 33 critical minerals selected for economic security management, and 10 strategic critical minerals designated for intensive management to stabilize supply chains for key industries. The strategy combines market intelligence and buffer capacity. It includes plans to develop a global minerals supply map and an early-warning system for supply risks, while strengthening public stockpiling—raising the coverage target to 100 days (from 54 days) for critical minerals. In parallel, Korea has sought to expand international cooperation and diversify supply sources through plurilateral platforms and bilateral arrangements, positioning diplomacy (including MOUs) as a complement to domestic preparedness. Korea has yet to establish a dedicated, legally binding instrument for critical minerals supply chain stabilization comparable to the U.S.–Japan Critical Minerals Agreement. While it maintains cooperation through existing FTAs (e.g., with Australia, Colombia, Indonesia) and various non-binding MOUs with major producers since 2021, these mechanisms are primarily declaratory or facilitative, lacking enforceable rules on investment protection and export restrictions essential for robust supply chain security. Building on these foundations, Korea’s external cooperation toolkit needs to evolve gradually from an “MOU-centered” approach toward enforceable critical minerals (or minerals) agreements. In particular, supply chain stabilization requires an agreement architecture that links core obligations to meaningful implementation and, where appropriate, dispute settlement, so as to mitigate supply chain uncertainties originating from partner countries. This brief therefore proposes three priority pillars for Korea’s next-stage minerals arrangements: (i) disciplines on export restrictive measures (potentially anchored in the goods chapter), (ii) investment and investor protection provisions (through an investment chapter or equivalent safeguards), and (iii) facilitation of workforce mobility—especially the timely movement of technical personnel essential for supply chain cooperation and project implementation.
Topic:: Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Economic Cooperation, Economic Security, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

230. The Structural Transformation of U.S. Foreign Economic Policy and Its Economic Effects

Author:: Gusang Kang
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Over the past decade, U.S. foreign economic policy has undergone a structural transformation that extends beyond partisan political cycles. What initially appeared to be a temporary shift toward protectionism under the first Trump administration has consolidated into a broader orientation centered on economic security, strategic competition with China, and domestic industrial revitalization. The renegotiation of the existing trade agreements, withdrawal from multilateral frameworks, and imposition of Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs marked a clear departure from the liberal trade order that had characterized U.S. policy for decades. Rather than reversing this trajectory, the Biden administration utilized core tariff measures and expanded industrial policy through the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, reinforcing a production-centered strategy aimed at reshaping global supply chains. At the core of this transformation lies a reconfiguration of incentives governing global capital allocation and trade patterns. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) fundamentally restructured the U.S. international tax regime through provisions such as GILTI, FDII, and BEAT while lowering the statutory corporate tax rate, thereby altering firms’ location and investment decisions. At the same time, Section 301 tariffs sought to change relative prices in global value chains, reduce U.S. dependence on China, and induce supply chain realignment. Together, these measures illustrate how U.S. foreign economic policy increasingly integrates trade, tax, and industrial instruments into a coherent framework of economic statecraft. Against this backdrop, this report empirically evaluates the economic effects of these policy instruments. It examines how the TCJA affected U.S. outward and inward foreign direct investment and how Section 301 tariffs influenced trade flows at the product level, particularly with respect to trade diversion involving Korea. By employing panel regression and event-study methodologies, the study aims to identify causal impacts and dynamic adjustment patterns. The findings provide evidence that recent U.S. foreign economic policy has produced measurable structural effects on global investment and trade flows, offering important implications for Korea’s strategic economic positioning.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Global Value Chains, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

231. Korea in the Global Innovation Network: Navigating Technological Interdependence

Author:: Jongduk Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: As U.S.–China competition intensifies, rivalry is also sharpening within the global knowledge system. This raises a central question: how does deepening U.S.–China tension reshape the global innovation network (GIN)—the cross-border web through which knowledge is created, shared, and recombined? Governments worldwide have long emphasized the strategic importance of science, technology, and knowledge. Yet science and technology policy has often been approached primarily as a domestic agenda. In today’s global economic environment—marked by heightened strategic competition—this perspective is increasingly incomplete. The key issues are not only how much a country invests in innovation, but also how its position within global knowledge networks is changing, how geopolitical frictions affect knowledge flows, and what strategic direction policy should take in response. This study therefore focuses on the cross-country and cross-industry structure of technology and innovation. Traditional policy approaches have tended to prioritize expanding total R&D spending. However, innovation cannot be generated by the R&D efforts of a single country, industry, or firm alone. A defining feature of innovation—often underappreciated in policy debate—is its networked and cumulative nature: advances in one sector shape the trajectory of innovation in others, often with long-run effects. Semiconductor progress, for example, does not remain within the semiconductor industry; it underpins innovation in telecommunications, computing, and automobiles. Conversely, knowledge developed in these downstream industries feeds back into semiconductor advances. These interactions occur not only within national borders but also across them, as knowledge diffuses through multiple channels linking countries and sectors. Accordingly, effective R&D allocation and innovation strategy require explicit attention to international and intersectoral “network effects.” Against this backdrop, this World Economic Brief traces how Korea and other major economies—including the United States, China, Japan, and Europe—have evolved within the global innovation network over 2000–2020. Using this network perspective, we examine (i) changing patterns of interdependence and (ii) shifts in countries’ relative positions across key technologies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Strategic Competition, Research and Development, and Interdependence
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

232. China's Overseas Production-Supply Bases: Network Structure and Implications

Author:: Jihyun Jung
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Global supply chains are undergoing structural change as the prolonged U.S.–China strategic rivalry, the normalization of geopolitical risks, and post pandemic disruptions shift the organizing principle from efficiency to stability, resilience, security, and trust. Major economies such as the United States, EU, and Japan have responded by strengthening policies for supply chain diversification, friend shoring, and strategic management of critical minerals and advanced industries. In response to these environmental changes, China is also strengthening the strategic nature of its overseas economic activities. Whereas Chinese companies' overseas expansion previously focused on market expansion or resource acquisition, it has recently shifted to a structural network expansion strategy aimed at responding to the restructuring of global supply chains. Specifically, China is expanding its global economic network by simultaneously establishing overseas production bases, supply bases, and infrastructure/logistics networks through a combined approach involving Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI), overseas contracting projects, and trade activities. This strategy goes beyond merely relocating production bases overseas. China is pursuing a multi-layered strategy: strengthening global market access through overseas production bases, establishing supply bases to secure critical minerals and intermediate goods, and solidifying long-term economic footholds through infrastructure and industrial park development. This can be understood as China's strategic response to maintain its economic influence and enhance industrial competitiveness amid the global supply chain restructuring. Therefore, China's overseas expansion should be analyzed not merely as a phenomenon of increased investment, but as a process of restructuring global production and supply networks. This report approaches China's overseas economic activities from this perspective, understanding them as a strategy for building production and supply networks, and systematically classifies China’s overseas bases into three functional types and identifies core hub countries through standardized indicator analysis.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Strategic Competition, Supply Chains, and Production
Political Geography:: China and Asia

233. China’s Growth in Transition: Structural Shifts and Medium- to Long-term Prospects

Author:: Jiyoung Moon
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Since the initiation of its reform and opening-up period, China’s economy has experienced continuous high-speed growth despite multiple cycles of expansion and contraction. While China’s economic growth rate steadily declined after peaking at 14.2% in 2007, this deceleration has been stable and predictable, consistently exceeding the Chinese government’s target rate. Recently, however, China’s economic growth trajectory has reached a critical new turning point. Both external uncertainties—including intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition, persistent geopolitical tensions, and global supply-chain fragmentation—and internal downward pressures, such as delayed real-estate recovery, local government debt issues, and rising youth unemployment, have exposed the limits of the old economic growth structure and fueled the “Peak China” narrative. Nevertheless, predictions of a sharp economic decline remain tentative. The Chinese government is actively deploying various policy efforts to create a new phase of economic growth. Major economic strategies—such as the “dual circulation strategy,” “new quality productive forces,” “consumption-led economic growth,” and “Chinese-style modernization”—along with strong policy incentives, appear well-directed toward addressing the core challenges of the economic slowdown. Given that Korea maintains deeply interconnected cooperative relationships with China across multiple sectors, a careful examination of China’s economic growth prospects and the recalibration of bilateral cooperation directions is more important than ever. This report comprehensively analyzes the structural changes in China’s economy from supply-side-side perspectives, utilizes rigorous econometric modeling to forecast medium- to long-term growth and derives strategic implications for Korea’s economy.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Reform, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

234. Global Trends in High Debt Levels and Their Macroeconomic Implications

Author:: Hongseok Choi
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In response to the unprecedented crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, governments and central banks around the world injected massive fiscal stimulus and liquidity support. These bold policy measures succeeded in averting the worst recession, but, as a consequence, the world is now facing historically high levels of debt. According to the Institute of International Finance, global debt surpassed USD 324 trillion in the first quarter of 2025—roughly three times the size of global GDP and “[a level unseen] since the Napoleonic Wars.” Moreover, global debt increased by USD 7.5 trillion during the same quarter, more than four times the quarterly average increase of USD 1.7 trillion since late 2022, indicating that the global debt problem has worsened rather than eased after the pandemic. Against this backdrop, Choi et al. (2025) reassessed the structure of the post-pandemic high-debt environment, analyzed vulnerabilities across advanced economies, emerging markets, and Korea, and derived policy implications for proactive responses. The purpose of this report is to present their key findings.
Topic:: Debt, Macroeconomics, COVID-19, Banking, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

235. A Long, Hard Year: Russia-Ukraine War Lessons Learned 2023

Author:: John A. Nagl and Michael T. Hackett
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Following the 2024 A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force, which explored military lessons learned from the first year of the Russia-Ukraine War, this book examines the changing character of war as the second year of the war unfolded. This year’s authors explore the conflict from four different angles: information advantage (intelligence, information operations, and cyber); landpower operations (fires, maneuver, force protection, mission command, and mercenaries); multi-domain operations (air and maritime); and crosscutting themes (diplomacy, sustainment, and innovation and adaptation). The second year witnessed the innovative approaches to combat of the first year—drones, unmanned aerial systems, and electronic-warfare offensive and defensive capabilities—combined with entrenched warfare not seen at the current scale in Europe since World War I. The use of mercenary private military companies like the Wagner Group generated moments of high suspense (with a failed mutiny in July 2023) and led to changes in Russian force structure and tactics. Delays in continued allied support tested the resolve and operational capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which nevertheless kept up the fight and held Russia back. Through it all, the conflict offers a compelling picture of the war of the future, along with lessons for the US Army Training and Doctrine Command to prepare the Joint Force to meet the challenges of the large-scale combat operations of tomorrow.
Topic:: Drones, Armed Conflict, Information Warfare, Russia-Ukraine War, and Trench Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

236. New Frameworks for Language Access: Tracking the Expansion & Features of State & Local Laws & Policies

Author:: Jacob Hofstetter
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Over the past 25 years, many state and local governments have sought to develop more organized approaches to helping residents with limited English proficiency access public services and information. There are multiple reasons for this. By addressing language barriers, language access policies and laws help governments communicate with an increasingly multilingual U.S. public, enhance public safety and emergency responses, improve access to public information and services, and boost the overall effectiveness of government programs. Since 2020, nine states and 31 localities have enacted new language access measures. These laws and policies, which now exist in 13 states, the District of Columbia, and more than 60 localities, generally share certain common features related to agency responsibilities (for example, on the provision of interpretation services and the translation of written materials) and policy administration (such as naming an oversight office). This report explores the rise of state and local language access policies and laws, their key features, and their role in a changing national policy context during the second Trump term. With growing cracks in the federal policy framework related to language access, state and local efforts play a vital role, the study finds, in meeting the practical, everyday communication needs of state and local governments and their communities.
Topic:: Immigrants, Integration, Immigration Policy, Local Government, and Language Access
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

237. The 2024 Carlisle Conference on the PLA: Protracted War Against the PRC

Author:: Joshua Arostegui
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The US Army War College’s 2024 Carlisle Conference on the People’s Liberation Army was held on October 16 and 17 at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference featured keynote speakers from the US Department of Defense and the think-tank community, and panels focused on assessing the People’s Republic of China’s understanding of and capability to carry out a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific. The conference brought together over 100 participants from government, military, US Intelligence Community, academic, and think-tank organizations. The conference papers were authored by expert speakers and panelists and were designed to provide insight into key People’s Republic of China and People’s Liberation Army advances that could enable Chinese forces in a future protracted war against a US-led coalition. The papers were also crafted to enable in-depth seminar discussions following each panel, allowing the authors to garner feedback to improve their analyses. The conference volume is organized into four sections based on the conference panels: understanding the People’s Republic of China’s views on historical and modern protracted wars; assessing the People’s Liberation Army’s operational endurance in the land, maritime, and air domains; analyzing China and the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to command and control a protracted war; and determining how Russia and North Korea could support the People’s Republic of China in a protracted war.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

238. A Human-Centric Framework: Employment Principles for Lethal Autonomous Weapons

Author:: Brennan Deveraux
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: This monograph challenges the Department of War to reframe the conversation about humans’ involvement in lethal autonomous weapons systems by codifying a human-centric framework built on the employment pillars of certification, authority, restriction, and accountability. Although an ample body of literature discusses lethal autonomous weapon systems, this monograph takes a novel approach by proposing a theoretical framework and applying it to historical and hypothetical practical scenarios involving weapons with autonomous characteristics. In terms of methodology, the monograph relies heavily on primary sources, including UN documents and Department of War publications, which are augmented by secondary sources from experts in the field and creative speculation about the characteristics of future warfare. The study’s conclusions will help US military and policy practitioners manage and integrate lethal autonomous weapon systems. This study is designed to spark a necessary and likely uncomfortable conversation about when relying on lethal machines is appropriate. The monograph provides tangible recommendations to help shape future policy decisions about developing and employing lethal autonomous weapon systems.
Topic:: Security, Drones, Emerging Technology, and Autonomous Weapons Systems
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

239. A Beast of a Different Kind: Malign Foreign Information Operations

Author:: Jordan Miller
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Information attacks are their own distinct kind of villain. They have characteristics unlike those of cyberattacks and financial crimes, and need to be addressed with a strategy tailor-made for the kind of threat they pose. As Canada faces growing challenges of many kinds, it does the security operations of Canada a disservice to lump them together with other non-kinetic threats. So what is Canada’s best bet for a comprehensive approach that treats information attacks as their own beast? Jordan Miller illuminates how information attacks are redefining conflict. They move both independently and in tandem with other measures, including military power, and they know no borders. Measures to address the threat must equip the psyche as well as the digital space, as Canada’s allies have identified, and Canada’s approach must seek to understand more aspects of an attacker’s strategy and equip national security against this distinctive beast.
Topic:: National Security, Democracy, Foreign Interference, Information Warfare, and Freedom of Thought
Political Geography:: Global Focus

240. Artificial Intelligence, the Future of War and International Politics

Author:: Michael C. Horowitz
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Companies, not governments, are at the cutting edge of developing new artificial intelligence (AI) technologies for military use, and regulation needs to keep pace with these advances. Yet geopolitical tension is undermining international cooperation on AI in the military domain. This paper examines opportunities for global cooperation to mitigate the risk of accidents and misuse of these technologies that could lead to escalation. Possible options include establishing an agreement to regulate autonomous systems, mandating human control over nuclear weapons and creating a UN-based institution to oversee responsible military applications of AI.
Topic:: National Security, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and International Politics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

241. Advancing Responsible AI Across NATO: Innovation and Interoperability

Author:: Ryan Jay Atkinson
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: NATO’s first AI strategy from 2021 outlines six guiding principles: lawfulness, responsibility and accountability, explainability and traceability, reliability, governability, and bias mitigation. Together, these principles form the ethical and operational baseline guiding how NATO and its members design, deploy and govern AI in defence contexts. But the world of AI has evolved drastically since 2021. The 2024 strategy was more about practical applications, emphasizing cooperation of non-traditional defence suppliers for AI research and development with industry, academia and national defence agencies. NATO’s evolving AI strategy is part of larger initiatives toward rapid technological adaptation, innovating AI among other priority areas, including autonomous systems, with programs that support responsible AI operationalization scaling rapidly to meet the growing need for fast action on responsible AI use. Allies foster responsible AI developments that benefit from alignment with these NATO strategies and programs, building innovation clusters that are interoperable and interdisciplinary across domains.
Topic:: NATO, National Security, Geopolitics, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

242. Tech Diplomacy and Avenues for Digital Development in Africa

Author:: Folashadé Soulé
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Tech diplomacy in Africa is gaining traction as a vital tool for advancing foreign policy goals, fostering regional integration, promoting economic development and attracting investments. It involves leveraging digital technologies and platforms to enhance communication, engage citizens and shape narratives on the global stage. Although challenges persist, African nations are actively exploring opportunities to build sovereign digital capabilities and participate in shaping global digital governance. Tech diplomacy will be critical to how Africa engages with itself as new and emerging technologies increasingly demand collaboration, whether in cross-border data flows, shared compute infrastructure, talent development and mobility, or digital public goods, including fair taxation regimes that make African countries more competitive globally than with one another. A stronger and more cohesive continental approach to tech diplomacy will ultimately enable the continent to build resilience and engage with other regions from a position of strength.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Data Governance, and Digital Governance
Political Geography:: Africa

243. Seizing the Watershed Moment: Africa’s AI Strategy

Author:: Priya Vithani
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The narrative of digital sovereignty in Africa took centre stage over the course of 2024–2025, falling against the backdrop of a sizeable investment gap in the African artificial intelligence (AI) economy. While demand for investment and funding is stronger than ever, the days of traditional and transactional avenues of investment are long gone, with African-led design instead taking preference. The expected shift of major global AI and policy gatherings from the Global South to Europe and North America in 2026 threatens to stall the momentum gained by the African continent on global AI governance and policy making. Greater coordination between country-led, regional and global efforts is needed to protect the emerging African consensus on data and AI. The upcoming India AI Impact Summit in February 2026 presents a milestone to bridge the African AI consensus and global AI priorities, as well as reinforce and advance South-South collaboration on AI policy.
Topic:: Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Sovereignty, and Digital Rights
Political Geography:: Africa

244. AI National Security Scenarios

Author:: Duncan Cass-Beggs and Matthew da Mota
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: On March 26, 2025, the Global AI Risks Initiative at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Privy Council Office of Canada co-hosted a full-day, in-person scenarios workshop in Ottawa, Ontario, to explore existing and emerging implications for national security posed by next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) systems. This summary report contains policy recommendations that are intended to stimulate and enrich discussion among policy makers and the broader public. It is composed of three parts: an executive summary highlighting key messages drawn from the workshop discussions and background literature; a detailed description of key uncertainties and five possible future AI scenarios and implications considered at the workshop, adapted from the background paper shared with participants in advance of the workshop; and an appendix summarizing key points from the workshop discussion.
Topic:: National Security, Governance, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

245. The Fourth Path: Middle-Income Countries and Prosocial AI

Author:: Cornelia C. Walther
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Middle-income countries, home to 75 percent of the global population, have an opportunity to pioneer a prosocial approach to regulating artificial intelligence (AI). Cornelia C. Walther argues that prosocial AI — systems tailored, trained, tested and targeted to advance human well-being and planetary health — offers a framework for these countries to take a fourth path to AI policy that avoids the pitfalls of the three current models and aligns technological development with sustainable and equitable outcomes, embedding these values from the design phase onward. This fourth path demands regional cooperation among middle-income countries to share information on AI policy experiments and their outcomes; build collective capacity; and demonstrate that prosocial innovation can drive both economic competitiveness and human development.
Topic:: Human Rights, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Middle-Income Countries
Political Geography:: Global Focus

246. Lessons from the 2025 G7 Cycle: Quantum, AI and Science Diplomacy

Author:: Michael P. A. Murphy
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The 2025 G7 convened at a time of international instability. Nevertheless, its meetings achieved meaningful progress on emerging technologies. The 2025 G7 cycle’s outputs focused on scope, rather than concluding with a wide-ranging statement about geopolitical order, a fundamentally different perspective for middle powers. Michael P. A. Murphy argues that middle powers can use strategies of science diplomacy to navigate the current instability of international relations. Technical aspects of science policy have the potential to facilitate continued cooperation amid growing international tensions, as has been demonstrated by the key emerging technology outputs of the 2025 G7 cycle, and by emphasizing technical cooperation rather than debates on international order, middle powers can support the resilience of international institutions.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, G7, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

247. Technology Policy and Diplomacy: The Indian Experience

Author:: Sanjay Bhattacharyya
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Science and technology (S&T) is a key vector for economic growth and national power. India has developed a dynamic technology policy aligned with development priorities, pursued indigenous advancement and built centres of excellence. S&T education has trained a large pool of researchers and engineers but few institutes have attained global standards. Higher resource allocation is necessary for S&T research, innovation and diplomacy. India’s technology diplomacy focuses on collaborations in key sectors for sustainable development to stay ahead in future-oriented domains. Technology diplomacy has been successful in strategic areas and development priorities, including creating research ties with certain countries, attracting scientific talent in the Indian diaspora and encouraging private endowments.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

248. What Luck Has to Do With It: Understanding the Role of Nuclear Luck in Decision-Making

Author:: Tyrus Tibor Kalanyos
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Since the end of the Second World War and the start of the Nuclear Age, there have been numerous cases of nuclear near-use or near-incidents. This article makes a case for how luck, particularly nuclear luck, has not only been an essential variable in preventing nuclear wars and uses, but also how experiences with nuclear luck have shaped the decision-making process in America and the Soviet Union. Through case study analyses of the War Scare events in the early 1980s, primarily the Able Archer-83 incident and the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident, the paper identifies attitude and policy shifts in decision-makers’ posture towards nuclear security with an understanding of political psychology scholarship. The findings suggest that experiences of nuclear luck can lead to more careful and risk-averse behaviour, the paper also highlights how the relationship between nuclear luck and the decision-making process can advance theories on behavioural arms control.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Decision-Making, and Luck
Political Geography:: Soviet Union, Global Focus, and United States of America

249. Military Peace Leadership to Protect the Force and Civilians in an Ever-Changing Environment

Author:: Omar Martin Tejada Perez
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This article explains how peace operations have evolved in response to constant and dynamic changes in conflict environments. This situation challenges traditional military leadership styles and approaches, which are mostly anchored in a conventional warfare mindset, one of the main reasons for the major failures in protecting United Nations forces and local civilians on the ground. Three examples of leadership stories that have positively impacted people on the ground, despite the adversity they faced, together with theoretical leadership approaches, form the analytical frame that leads to some conclusions and recommendations. In this sense, military education, social skills and capabilities, as well as civil and military interaction and coordination, are some topics revisited throughout the document.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Leadership, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

250. The PATRIOT Act: The Friction Between Civil Liberties and National Security

Author:: Megan Saito
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The shock that followed the attacks of 9/11 prompted the American public to urge the United States government to increase the protection of national security. The PATRIOT Act was created in response to these demands and set out to detect and prevent acts of terrorism from reoccurring in the United States of America. Since the conception of the PATRIOT Act, privacy advocates and civil liberties groups have been protesting the Act's ability to 'infringe' on American citizens’ amendments protected by the United States Constitution. This article responds to the questions to what degree does the Patriot Act infringe upon civil liberties?
Topic:: National Security, 9/11, Civil Liberties, and Patriot Act
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS