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152. Iran may be a turning point for US regime change objectives in Latin America
- Author:
- Tiziano Breda and Sandra Pellegrini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In Venezuela, Operation Absolute Resolve caused no American fatalities, and Nicolás Maduro was captured swiftly and replaced with Delcy Rodríguez, who embarked on normalization of relations with the United States and reforms that benefit US interests. In contrast, Operation Epic Fury in Iran has already seen hundreds of American service members injured and seven killed; Iranian retaliation has inflicted serious political costs on the US and allies; and the replacement for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in US-Israeli operations, is his son, a fellow hard-liner — signaling Iranian defiance rather than concessions. The risk of increasing entanglement in Iran will likely weaken US capacity and dampen domestic appetite for further intervention, at least ahead of the November mid-term elections. Sustained US military engagement in the Middle East may further divert some of its resources deployed in the Caribbean, already deprived of the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier.1 This, in turn, may limit the credibility of any threat of further US operations in Venezuela or Cuba, hindering Trump’s ability to extract concessions from Caracas and Havana, particularly those related to democratization. Cuba remains a US priority: Trump has reiterated warnings of imminent changes in the island.2 However, recent US-Cuba engagement suggests that a negotiated political settlement, rather than a direct and costly military operation as in Venezuela, has gained traction. The US has applied pressure to bring the Cuban regime to the negotiating table. A blockade on oil exports has already triggered several power outages that have affected all sectors of the economy and access to basic necessities, and these are likely to deepen as oil import prices hike. The shortages risk heightening social discontent and increase domestic pressure on the government. Previous spikes in demonstrations in Cuba have been spurred by fuel and energy shortages, and recent protests suggest this dynamic remains potent.3
- Topic:
- Regime Change, Military Intervention, Armed Conflict, Energy, and Operation Epic Fury
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Cuba, Latin America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America
153. The migration debate on the streets: Four key things to know from global data on protests
- Author:
- Kieran Doyle and Ciro Murillo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown has sent shockwaves across the United States. Far-reaching detention operations across the country led by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents have sparked thousands of anti-ICE and pro-migrant protests. In early January 2026, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) massively expanded “Operation Metro Surge” in Minnesota, making it the agency’s largest-ever operation. Within three weeks, federal migration enforcement officers shot and killed two people in incidents that were recorded from multiple angles by bystanders in videos that quickly went viral. These shootings inflamed already heightened tensions between demonstrators and law enforcement agents and triggered hundreds of anti-ICE protests across the country. As the operation continues despite Trump’s promise of “de-escalation,” and amid a fresh ICE operation in Maine, it’s clear that the fight over migration in the US is far from finished.1 The situation in the United States is not unique – these protests represent a fraction of the larger picture of demonstrations over migration worldwide. ACLED records migration-related demonstrations in over 75 countries since the beginning of 2025. From peaceful demonstrations to episodes of violence perpetrated by radical groups, sentiments toward migration manifest differently across regional and political contexts. ACLED’s protest data provide four key insights on surges in pro- and anti-migration mobilization. These findings reflect how migration demonstrations are a global phenomenon – albeit much more concentrated in major destination countries – and point to how migration and migration crackdowns play a role in polarizing societies around the world.
- Topic:
- Migration, Protests, Political Extremism, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
154. Ukraine war: How six new trends are shaping the conflict
- Author:
- Olha Polishchuk and Cristian Vlas
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Russia made limited yet costly advances in the Donetsk region, and expanded pressure along the northern front and the Zaporizhia region. As Russia scaled up its drone production, it has also spread and intensified its drone-led civilian targeting across Ukraine. Russia ramped up its campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of the coldest winter since the war began, causing widespread blackouts during freezing temperatures. Ukraine sharpened its long-range attacks deep into Russian territory, targeting oil and military facilities to generate economic and reputational damage. Russia tested and mapped security across Europe by engaging in sabotage, drone overflights, and provocative use of weapons. Ukraine faced an increasing number of Russian-recruited saboteurs and genuine cohesion challenges around anti-corruption efforts.
- Topic:
- Drones, Armed Conflict, Sabotage, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine
155. Africa: Non-state armed groups are the main drivers of violence targeting local officials
- Author:
- Christian Jaffe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In 2025, violence affected local officials in 28 African countries but was strongly concentrated in the east and west of the continent (see map below). Although this violence has been decreasing regionwide since 2023, in three of the six worst-affected countries — Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Cameroon — it grew in 2025. In South Sudan, it remained at the same levels recorded in 2024, while it decreased in Kenya and Somalia. All six of these countries were also in the top 10 worst-affected countries in 2024.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Violence, and Local Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Cameroon
156. Blue Nile: From peripheral front to central battleground in the Sudan conflict
- Author:
- Jalale Getachew Birru
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The 25 January clash between the SAF and the RSF and SPLM-N Hilu faction now places Blue Nile state at the center of the Sudan conflict.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Armed Conflict, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and Blue Nile
157. GR&P Seminar: The Impact of Global Change on Food Trade Vulnerability and Food Security
- Author:
- Kenneth Strzepek and Gregory Sixt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- International food trade has become essential for global food security, with over 40% of staple foods traded internationally. However, interconnected food networks are vulnerable to climatic, economic, and geopolitical shocks. This event will discuss the new MIT Jameel Index for Food Trade and Vulnerability, a comprehensive index linking food trade exposure to national resilience. Developed to inform evidence-based policymaking, the Jameel Index offers new insights into which countries are most at risk from disruptions in food trade and how global food systems can be strengthened. The seminar will present findings from projections of economic, population, and climate change impacts on food trade vulnerability for 2035 and 2050, and discuss their policy implications for addressing growing food insecurity in a volatile geopolitical and climate landscape. Kenneth Strzepek, PhD, is a Climate, Water, and Food Specialist and a Research Scientist at the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy. He is also Professor Emeritus of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Boulder at Colorado. He has worked for a range of national governments as well as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the USAID. Additionally, he holds research appointments at the International Food Policy Research Institute and at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. Gregory Sixt, PhD, directs the Food and Climate Systems Transformation (FACT) Alliance, an MIT Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab (J-WAFS)-led global network of leading research institutions and stakeholder organizations working to shorten the link between research and action. He also serves as Research Manager for Food and Climate Systems on various J-WAFS projects. Previously, he worked at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
- Topic:
- Food Security, Geopolitics, Trade, Supply Chains, and Vulnerability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
158. Necessary Neighbors: Poland and Ukraine Must Stabilize Their Strained Partnership
- Author:
- Yuliia Korotia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Polish-Ukrainian relations have moved from a phase of exceptional solidarity to one of mounting tension and deepening structural strain. What initially seemed to be a long-term strategic partnership grounded in shared security interests has evolved into a more fragmented and fragile, at times almost hostile, relationship. This shift, visible across political, economic, and social dimensions, risks undermining not only bilateral cooperation but also the broader foundations of regional stability at a moment of ongoing war, strategic uncertainty in Europe, and a potentially antagonistic transatlantic relationship. If Poland and Ukraine fail to adopt a more realistic, constructive, and mutually attentive approach to the partnership, their cooperation will weaken in ways that directly affect military logistics, EU cohesion, regional resilience, and resistance to hybrid threats. Understanding how the relationship has changed, and what deeper dynamics are driving this, is essential for assessing the risks ahead and identifying pathways to improve the relationship.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Poland
159. If China Attacks Taiwan: The Consequences for China of “Minor Conflict” and “Major War” Scenarios
- Author:
- Bonnie S. Glaser
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- Research on the possibility and likely outcome of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict dynamics, and possible conflict outcomes. Tabletop exercises have been used to identify gaps in the capabilities of the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Taiwan to assess potential escalation pathways and to better understand war termination strategies.1 Comparatively less attention has been devoted to the potential impact of cross-Strait conflict on the PRC itself and how that impact could shape President Xi Jinping’s risk calculus and decision-making about use of force against Taiwan. Xi’s risk calculus is crucial to understanding if and under what circumstances Beijing might take aggressive actions against Taiwan because any such decision would carry profound political, economic, and strategic consequences for the PRC and for him personally. Xi has tied his legitimacy to putting the PRC on an irreversible path toward the “China Dream” of national rejuvenation by 2049 and unifying Taiwan with the motherland is deemed essential to that goal. Yet a military conflict over Taiwan would risk massive economic disruption, catastrophic military losses, significant social unrest, and devastating sanctions, all of which could turn his dream into a nightmare and undermine his political authority. Xi’s calculus must therefore weigh the perceived benefits of using force to achieve unification against the potential costs. The centrality of Xi’s risk calculus to understanding future PRC decision-making about potential actions against Taiwan demands deeper investigation than has taken place so far. This report seeks to fill this research gap by examining how use of force against Taiwan would impact the PRC in four key areas: its economy, its military capabilities, its social stability, and international costs. Each issue set is evaluated in a separate paper, although all four are interrelated, a factor that the report’s conclusion addresses. Logan Wright and Charlie Vest assess potential implications for the PRC economy. Joel Wuthnow analyzes the possible impact on the Chinese military. Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Jake Rinaldi consider the potential risks for social stability. Zack Cooper examines the likely international responses and costs. There is a broad range of possible scenarios for PRC use of force against Taiwan. Potential actions taken by Beijing may vary in terms of intensity and duration. To make comparisons possible across the four papers, the authors were given two baseline scenarios, a limited conflict and a major war. Both are described in detail below. In outlining these scenarios, specific triggers were not established. They would nevertheless be important in determining international responses and subsequently would have implications for the PRC economy and possibly for social stability. Although the absence of a detailed trigger is a limiting factor, in any crisis multiple actors will draw their own conclusions about what sparked the conflict, so perceptions of who was at fault would differ across countries. The authors were also permitted to assess cases situated between a minor conflict and a major war, given that the economic, military, political, and international costs may vary discontinuously across a range of scenarios. All scenarios were assumed to occur between 2026 and 2030. The first scenario that authors assess is a minor conflict lasting several weeks. In this case, PRC ships and aircraft surround Taiwan after a series of deadly air and maritime confrontations between their forces. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) then attempts to conduct a “quarantine” of major ports in Taiwan. The United States intervenes and its warships escort commercial vessels through the blockade zone without incident. For the purposes of this scenario, dozens of PRC and Taiwan armed forces members are assumed killed in incidents in the air and at sea. There are no losses of foreign personnel. The conflict terminates when both sides agree to de-escalate the situation. This results in a relatively low intensity and short duration conflict. The second scenario that authors were asked to review was a major conflict of several months that ends in a PLA defeat. This conflict starts with an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in which initial PLA missile strikes target Taiwan’s military and US forces in Japan and Guam. PRC forces land on Taiwan but supplies and follow-on forces are hampered by sustained Taiwanese and US strikes on ships and aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait. After several months of heavy fighting, PRC forces withdraw to the mainland after losing roughly 100,000 personnel. Taiwan suffers approximately 50,000 military casualties and 50,000 civilian casualties. The United States loses 5,000 military members and 1,000 civilians, while Japan loses 1,000 military members and 500 civilians. Beyond this, no substantial foreign losses occur. The conflict terminates when the PLA withdraws from the main island of Taiwan but retains control of the Kinmen and Matsu Islands. The purpose of these scenarios is not to assert that this is how a conflict over Taiwan would play out. The intention is instead to help describe in more detail what the costs would be to the PRC of a failed crossstrait operation. An important caveat is that the authors were asked to make their own assessments of the impact on the PRC in each of the four areas examined. They were not asked to put themselves in Xi’s (or his successor’s) shoes. Xi and his colleagues might underestimate (or overestimate) the costs that the PRC would incur in these scenarios. Even if Beijing anticipates that the costs of taking an action against Taiwan are high, they might proceed despite the perceived risks. National leaders often make choices that overlook high costs if the perceived benefits are high or overridden by political considerations. Xi might conclude that not acting is more costly for him personally than taking a risky action that he believes is necessary to demonstrate resolve. For example, if Xi views a step taken by Taipei as intended to permanently separate it from the PRC, and especially if he judges that Washington supports that goal, he is likely to move against Taiwan even if he expects that the PLA would suffer high casualties in attempting to seize it. Overall, the authors of these essays demonstrate that the costs to the PRC of a failed military operation against Taiwan would be substantial. As noted above, this is not to suggest that Beijing would necessarily be deterred from starting a conflict in the first place. But it would be a mistake to simply assume that the PRC would prevail in a conflict over Taiwan. The history of failed amphibious operations is long, and these essays demonstrate that an unsuccessful PRC-initiated conflict would have severe negative consequences for the country’s economy, military, social stability, and international standing.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and Threat Assessment
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
160. A Long Time Coming: Europe and India have discovered a strategic partnership
- Author:
- Garima Mohan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- The relationship between Europe and India is on the cusp of change. Later this month, in a historic first, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will serve as guest of honor, a position reserved for India’s top partners, at the country’s Republic Day ceremony. At the subsequent EU-India summit, the two sides are likely to sign a long-elusive free trade agreement (FTA) and an expansive security and defense partnership. They are also expected to announce initiatives designed to boost skilled migration, and to foster cooperation between European and Indian industry to enhance economic security. There are several other positive developments. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz just undertook his first official visit to India, also his first to a non-NATO ally. Accompanied by a substantial business delegation, he secured many agreements on defense industrial cooperation, semiconductors, and critical minerals. Recent German governments have made a point of sending top leadership to India before official visits to China, and Merz’s visit continues that convention. French President Emmanuel Macron is due to follow in February to cement his own country’s ties with New Delhi on emerging technologies, thereby broadening an already substantial and critical strategic partnership. India’s foreign minister, in a breakthrough for India’s small-group diplomacy in Europe, just joined a Weimar Format meeting for the first time. Lastly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit the continent in spring for the next India-Nordic summit. For some observers this momentum is the result of the rocky relationships that Europe and India have with the United States. In a world of fractured alliances and partnerships, Europe and India need each other like never before. But the groundwork for their current ties was laid over the last decade. Structural factors such as competition with China, and India’s policy of diversification that led it to focus on ties with the West, have brought them closer and raised bilateral ambitions. The relationship is, however, not without divergences, particularly on approaches to Russia. Based on interviews with policymakers in New Delhi, Paris, Berlin, The Hague, and Brussels, this piece will trace the evolution of the “India agenda” in European foreign policy and lay out Europe’s position among New Delhi’s foreign policy priorities.
- Topic:
- Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Asia, and India
161. Leveraging Remittances for Economic Transformation inECCAS Countries
- Author:
- Salim Ahmed Vessah
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Remittances are increasingly becoming a strategic yet underutilized lever for economictransformation in the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). Across Sub-Saharan Africa, remittance inflows reached a record USD 54 billion in 2023. Within ECCAS, theDemocratic Republic of Congo (approximately USD 1.4 billion) and Cameroon (about USD 375million) were the main recipients, while other member states received comparatively modestamounts. Although these flows do not collectively reach USD 5 billion at the regional level, theyalready surpass foreign direct investment or official development assistance in specific countriesand play a stabilizing role in household welfare. However, their developmental potential remainslargely untapped due to limited financial inclusion, high transfer costs, and the absence ofeffective institutional mechanisms to channel remittances toward productive investment and economic structural transformation. At the same time, ECCAS economies continue to grapple with persistent challenges : low industrialproductivity, weak competitiveness, fragile regulatory systems, insufficient infrastructure, and poorgovernance quality. These weaknesses are compounded by high levels of financial exclusion,limited access to affordable credit, and rising unemployment especially among young people andvulnerable populations. Combined, these constraints hinder progress toward the SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDGs) and the aspirations of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 . In thiscontext, better mobilization and strategic use of remittances constitute a viable and largelyuntapped alternative to support economic transformation and resilience.
- Topic:
- Economic Transformation, Remittances, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
- Political Geography:
- Africa
162. Improving access to electricity for greater energy justice inEconomic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
- Author:
- Salim Ahmed Vessah
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- ECCAS’s growth is constrained by a deep electrification deficit that undermines energy justice,human development, and inclusive structural transformation. Despite its immense energypotential, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) remains one of the leastelectrified sub-regions in Africa. , access to electricity was estimated at just 56.7%, far below thesub-Saharan African average of 72%. This persistent energy deficit fuels domestic energyinsecurity, as millions of poor and vulnerable households still rely on traditional and polluting fuelsfor cooking and heating. The consequences are profound: weakened social services, health risks,reduced productivity, and slowed economic diversification. The impacts span multiple sectors. Inrural areas, health centers lack reliable power for vaccine refrigeration, emergency care, oressential equipment. Households using biomass-based fuels face heightened risks of respiratorydiseases, disproportionately affecting women and children. In education, limited lighting andinadequate digital infrastructure reduce study hours and widen the learning gap. More broadly, unreliable electricity remains a major constraint on industrialization, agro-processing, and private-sector development, weakening the region’s competitiveness and slowing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals .
- Topic:
- Development, Industrialization, Energy, Sustainable Development, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
- Political Geography:
- Africa
163. From International Fragmentation to Industrial Cohesion:The Missing Link in AfCFTA Implementation
- Author:
- Salim Ahmed Vessah, Stephane Atangana, and Larissa Ntoubia
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- As global geo-economic fragmentation accelerates, African economies face rising external shocksfrom supply chain reconfiguration, protectionism, and volatile capital flows. The AfricanContinental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a strategic pathway to build regional resilience,expand industrial capacity, and strengthen economic sovereignty. Yet, despite early trade growth,intra-African trade remains limited, constrained by persistent non-tariff barriers, regulatoryfragmentation, weak logistics infrastructure, and insufficient productive capacity. Without deeperdomestic and regional reforms, AfCFTA risks delivering trade diversion rather than sustainedindustrial transformation. This brief argues that Africa’s central challenge is not market accessalone, but the absence of industrial cohesion that enables firms to scale, integrate into regionalvalue chains, and compete globally. It proposes a reform agenda focused on accelerated NTBremoval, targeted industrial value-chain development, regulatory convergence, digital tradeintegration, and coordinated continental trade diplomacy. Translating AfCFTA from legal ambitioninto economic performance is essential for inclusive growth, resilience, and long-termcompetitiveness in a fragmenting global economy.
- Topic:
- Resilience, Fragmentation, Geoeconomics, African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and Global Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa
164. Chinese Loans to Sub-Saharan African countries: BalancingDevelopment and Dependency
- Author:
- Ahmed Salim Vessah
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Over the past two decades, China has become sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) foremost tradingpartner and the region’s main bilateral creditor, profoundly reshaping its financial and geopoliticallandscape. Between 2000 and 2022, Chinese lenders extended over USD 170 billion in loans toAfrican countries , with major recipients (such as Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia)each receiving between USD 5 and 40 billion. Today, China accounts for around 20% of SSA’sbilateral external debt , underscoring its strategic importance in the continent’s developmenttrajectory. This Policy Brief argues that while Chinese loans are instrumental in addressing Africa’smassive infrastructure deficit, they concurrently heighten debt vulnerabilities and geopoliticaldependence. The attractiveness of Chinese financing is best understood in relation to Africa’spersistent structural needs. According to the African Development Bank (AfDB, 2024) , SSA facesan annual infrastructure financing gap of USD 100-150 billion, far exceeding the capacity ofdomestic revenues and traditional donors. Chinese loans therefore stand out due to their speed of approval focus on large-scale physical infrastructure, and limited policy conditionality’s comparedto Western lenders. For many African governments, this makes Chinese credit an appealing andpragmatic alternative for accelerating development.
- Topic:
- Debt, Development, Infrastructure, Trade, and Dependency
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and Asia
165. Glocalising Universal Health Coverage in Cameroon:Implications for good governance, equity and inclusiveness
- Author:
- Constantine Asahngwa
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Despite recent health financing reforms, quality healthcare services remain largely inaccessible tomany Cameroonians with financial barriers being one of the primary reasons. The UniversalHealth Coverage (UHC) program was introduced as a way of enhancing equitable access toquality services, without heavy financial spending for patients. However, rolling out the program inCameroon has raised some conceptual ambiguity as there is no clear understanding of what UHCis all about, including its implementation. Drawing from desk review of policy documents andresearch papers, we argue that UHC has been glocalized in Cameroon and the process hasimplication for good governance, equity and inclusiveness, which are the core values in measuring and assessing its performance. We begin with a presentation of the conceptualization of UHCfrom a global perspective, followed by the glocalization of UHC in Cameroon, its implication forgood governance, access and inclusiveness, and some recommendations for action.
- Topic:
- Governance, Public Policy, Public Health, Health Insurance, Inclusion, and Equity
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
166. Strengthening Democracy, Deepening Practice, and Shapingthe Future of Governance in Central Africa
- Author:
- Pippie Hugues
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Democracy in Central Africa is at a critical juncture. While citizen demand for accountability hasgrown, political instability, fragile institutions, and shrinking civic space continue to underminedemocratic progress. Elections, though increasingly frequent, remain high-stakes events that caneither strengthen legitimacy or expose systemic weaknesses. Ensuring transparency, credibility,and institutional resilience is therefore essential. This policy brief argues that the region’s democratic future depends on translating continentalnorms into national practice, strengthening institutions, and cultivating a civically literate publiccapable of sustaining democratic culture. Without these foundations, reforms risk remainingsymbolic rather than transformative.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Accountability
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Central Africa
167. Lessons from Community-Based Health Insurance forScaling Universal Health Coverage in Cameroon
- Author:
- Regina Sinsai and Constantine Asahngwa
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Cameroon’s Universal Health Coverage (UHC) program, launched in 2023, aims to reducefinancial barriers to healthcare. However, coverage remains low (6.4%). Community-Based HealthInsurance (CBHI) schemes, despite their limitations, offer valuable lessons for UHCimplementation—particularly in governance, community engagement, and risk pooling. This briefoutlines these lessons and provides actionable recommendations to strengthen UHC.
- Topic:
- Governance, Health Insurance, and Community Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
168. Closing the Health Insurance Gap for Cameroon’s HealthWorkforce
- Author:
- Regina Sinsai, Constantine Asahngwa, and Ronald Gobina
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Healthcare workers (HCWs) are essential to Cameroon’s health system, yet most lack adequatehealth insurance coverage. Current schemes—NSIF, employer-based plans, and UHC—fail toprotect HCWs from catastrophic health costs. This brief examines the coverage gap, itsimplications, and policy actions to safeguard the health workforce.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Employment, Public Policy, Workforce, and Healthcare System
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
169. Virtual Briefing Series | US Military Posture and Strike Options Against Iran
- Author:
- Kevin Donegan, Mick Mulroy, and Jason Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- On January 14, as the Iranian regime brutally cracked down on the largest street protests the country had seen in years, US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to persevere, posting on social media “help is on its way.” At the time, however, limited US military resources in the theater constrained the president’s military options. In the ensuing month since Trump’s post, the Pentagon has repositioned significant forces to the Middle East. This has led to wide speculation that the US is preparing for renewed strikes on Iran even as the Trump administration pursues diplomatic talks with the Iranian regime. To better understand the military planning and force posture dynamics shaping US policy choices, this briefing featured two Distinguished Military Fellows, former commander of the 5th Fleet VADM Kevin Donegan, USN (Ret.), and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Mick Mulroy. MEI Senior Fellow Jason Campbell moderated the discussion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Protests, Military, and Airstrikes
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
170. Virtual Briefing Series | Tehran’s Brewing Troubles
- Author:
- Zeina AlShaib, Alan Eyre, and Alex Vatanka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- This briefing discussed the ongoing Iranian protests and severe government crackdown, which have rocked Iran since last week. The street demonstrations, sparked by the country’s economic nosedive and at times turning violent, are the largest in three years. As regime arrests and killings of protesters have intensified, US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene, his remarks potentially taking on a more vivid significance in light of the American military extraction over the weekend of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro — an ally of Tehran. This conversation featured Alan Eyre, Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Eyre retired from the US Foreign Service in September 2023, after a 40-year government career, which included negotiating with the Iranian government over its nuclear program. The discussion also featured Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at MEI and author of the book The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy, and Political Rivalry since 1979.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
171. Virtual Briefing Series | What is the Kurds’ place in an evolving Syria?
- Author:
- Zeina AlShaib, Noah Bonsey, and Amberin Zaman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- A four-day cease-fire between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) was extended over the weekend. The truce follows a dramatic confrontation in which government forces seized large swaths of territory from Kurdish control, reshaping Syria’s political map. What do these developments mean for the country’s political transition? This briefing featured Charles Lister, Senior Fellow with MEI and Director of its Syria Initiative. The briefing will also feature Amberin Zaman, Al-Monitor’s chief correspondent, as well as Noah Bonsey, Senior Advisor on Syria with the International Crisis Group. Our experts examined the latest surge in fighting and its impact on earlier plans for the SDF’s integration with Damascus, the fate of ISIS detainees in northeastern Syria, the US response to these developments, and Turkey’s role and influence in the country.
- Topic:
- Syrian War, Kurds, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Post-Conflict, and Political Transition
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
172. How can India Create More Jobs? Unleashing the 1.4 billion: A Blueprint for India s Job Led Resurrection
- Author:
- Ejaz Ghani
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses that while mature firms are becoming “net job destroyers” as they automate, it is the young, agile “Ojazelles” — firms less than five years old — that are currently breathing life into the economy, creating 45% of all new jobs. Yet, these young job creators are being strangled by “Structural Brakes”: a Collateral Trap that prizes ancestral land over fresh ideas, and a Regulatory Tax that punishes firms for growing. The paper proposes a New Social Compact to release these brakes. By leveraging India’s world leading Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), we can bypass the old “Land Finance Nexus” and move to Information Based Lending, where a young person’s talent and data become their new collateral.
- Topic:
- Economy, Tax Systems, Labor Market, Lending, and Jobs
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
173. Evaluation of Feminist Philosophy of Begum Rokeya Shakawat Hussain with Other Scholars in the Pre-and Post-Colonial Era
- Author:
- Md. Habibur Rahman and Md. Aktarul Islam
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- Mrs. S.R. Hussain, unanimously well-known as Begum Rokeya Shakawat Hussain or simply Begum Rokeya, was a Bengali feminist writer, and social activist who advocated throughout her lifetime for women’s education and socio-economic emancipation. Her roles in the awakening of the Bengali women of Bangladesh and India will always be remembered with reverence and inspired thousands to break the shackles of the vicious circle of backwardness and superstitions. The main objective of this research paper is to evaluate the feminist philosophy of Rokeya with that of other change makers in the pre-and post-colonial era. Furthermore, it has focused on Rokeya’s feminist philosophy and the contributions of other celebrated feminist activists around the world. This research has followed the qualitative approach by reviewing secondary data and information. The findings of this research have shown that some women who initiated various reformation movements in Bengal were vocal in bringing about socio-economic changes and fought against injustice and discrimination alongside their male counterparts. The global feminist and Islamic divine books have also played a vital role for women’s rights and empowerment. The philosophy and contributions of Begum Rokeya’s work are the major catalysts for eliminating gender disparity and balanced development in society.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Women, Philosophy, Feminism, Post-Colonial, and Begum Rokeya
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
174. India's Neighbourhood PolicyA Collaborative Approach or a Bid for Dominance
- Author:
- Rabbani Attar and Anusha Attar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The turmoil in India's neighbouring countries can largely be attributed to the framework of India's neighbourhood policy: its underlying principles, strategy, and implementation. The principles refer to the norms and practices guiding the policy; the strategy involves how priorities are structured; and the implementation pertains to the methods of execution. These norms shape the actions taken to achieve set objectives, while priorities dictate the order and significance assigned to those objectives. The modes represent the pathways through which the policy is carried out. This paper critically examines the principles, priorities, and methods of India's policy towards its neighbors, suggesting that India seeks to establish dominance and often presents its national interests as those of the entire region.
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Strategic Interests, Regional Politics, and Regional Stability
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
175. Commentary: Democracy, Democratization, Institutions, and Inequality: Nobel-Winning Insights from Daron Acemoglu and His Collaborators
- Author:
- Ali Resul Usul
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the seminal contributions of Daron Acemoglu and his collaborators to the understanding of democracy, democratization, institutions, and inequality, as recognized by the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. It delves into the stability and erosion of democratic institutions, emphasizing the interplay between historical legacies, class structures, and strategic political interactions. The analysis synthesizes insights from rational choice theory, historical institutionalism, and comparative political economy, highlighting the critical role of both formal and informal institutions in shaping political outcomes. Key concepts such as critical junctures, path dependence, and the dynamic balance between state capacity and societal power— termed the “Red Queen effect”—are examined to explain the persistence and transformation of political regimes. The paper also addresses the implications of economic inequality for democratic stability and the continuous process of adaptation required to maintain inclusive institutions. By integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence, this work provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the complex dynamics of democratization and offers policy recommendations for strengthening democratic resilience in the face of contemporary challenges.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Path Dependence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
176. Forever the Frenemies of the Middle East? Türkiye’s Regional Relations with Iran, 2002 to 2023
- Author:
- Cem Savaş
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- This article investigates the puzzle of Türkiye’s fluctuating relations with Iran since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. Contrary to many scholars’ expectations, the AKP government’s relations with Iran have competition and rivalry rather than just cooperation. Having improved significantly in the early 2000s, the relations became tense following the Arab uprisings and Syria’s civil war. However, the relations between the two countries have included both cooperative and conflictual elements since 2016. This research argues that the most relevant level for analyzing Türkiye’s fluctuating foreign policy strategies toward Iran between 2002 and 2023 is regional. Using the regionalist approaches of Buzan and Wæver’s Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and Lake and Morgan’s theory of regional orders, the article examines how the “local security externalities” of the Middle Eastern regional security complex (RSC) affect Türkiye-Iran regional relations by particularly focusing on speech acts of Turkish high-level foreign policy actors. By acknowledging the multi-layered nature of Middle Eastern politics, this study also considers the role of extra-regional actors and non-state armed groups in Turkish foreign policy attitudes toward Iran.
- Topic:
- International Relations, AKP, Regional Security, Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, and Middle East
177. The Logic of Foreign Policy: An Explanatory Model for Strategic Volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy Under the AKP Rule
- Author:
- Erol Kurubaş
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- The AKP government in Türkiye has been following a foreign policy based on values and discourses rather than power and interests. However, despite the lack of a radical change in international conditions, contrasting approaches in terms of the nature of foreign policy, strategic orientation, foreign relations, and international image have been adopted by the same government over short intervals of time. While a first period was marked by a value-laden transformation, a second was marked by righteous and romantic discourse and actions pointing to more value-based mentality. In a third period, foreign policy was guided by a logic based on a populist and opportunist approach. This paper calls each of these bases that shape foreign policy a different logic of foreign policy. Accordingly, while the logic of the first period was constructed in “the modified base logic” and led to the quest for strategic depth in foreign policy, the logic of the second became “righteous-romantic” and resulted in “strategic instability”. The logic of third, on the other hand, was shaped by its reactive form and led to “strategic uncertainty”. In this way, the paper argues that the strategic volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy can be explained by the elements that constitute the logic of foreign policy and the interactions among them.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, AKP, and Volatility
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
178. Macroeconomic and distributional effects of fiscal consolidation measures in EU countries
- Author:
- Philipp Heimberger and Anna Matzner
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- We provide new evidence on the effects of fiscal consolidation measures on output, unemployment, income inequality and consumer price inflation. To identify causal impacts, we use a narrative-based instrumental variable strategy drawing on historical records of exogenous fiscal changes motivated by deficit reduction, covering 12 EU countries from 1980 to 2020. Our results for the short to medium run show that fiscal consolidations (a) lower real output; (b) raise the unemployment rate; (c) increase income inequality; and d) reduce consumer price inflation. Contractionary macroeconomic effects are stronger during recessions than during non-recession periods.
- Topic:
- European Union, Income Inequality, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Austerity, Unemployment, and Fiscal Consolidation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
179. Pugwash workshop on Nordic Security: Deterrence and Risk Reduction
- Author:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Abstract:
- With much of the arms control architecture dismantled in recent years, there is an urgent need to assess common interests, redefine security priorities, and identify workable approaches to reduce nuclear dangers between NATO and Russia. In particular, the Arctic and Baltic sub-regions have become unformed strategic spaces, creating novel escalation risks. This project will map the impact of NATO membership on the security policy of Nordic states on issues such as Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA), military readiness for article 5 commitments, and examine prospects for nuclear risk reduction and arms control initiatives.
- Topic:
- Deterrence, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Risk, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Nordic Nations, Russia, and Europe
180. Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026
- Author:
- Jessica Anania, Vicka Heidt, Anna Tuohey, and Jessica M. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- Entering 2026, the global security landscape is defined by record-high levels of armed conflict, democratic backsliding, geopolitical fragmentation, and an accelerating climate crisis—dynamics unfolding alongside unprecedented cuts to foreign aid and development assistance. These converging pressures are reshaping conflict environments in ways that disproportionately endanger women and girls while eroding the systems meant to protect them, even as women remain central actors in humanitarian response, peacebuilding, and civic resistance. Women, Peace and Security: Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026 integrates gender-responsive analysis into conflict forecasting by drawing on insights from the Women, Peace and Security Conflict Tracker and expert consultations. This report identifies three cross-cutting trends expected to shape conflict dynamics in the year ahead: the increasing weaponization of hunger as a tactic of conquest and control, with devastating gendered consequences; political transitions that intensify repression, violence, and women’s exclusion at critical decision-making moments; and worsening climate shocks that compound displacement, insecurity, and economic loss for women and girls. The report also profiles 10 settings—Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran, Israel & Palestine, Mali, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela—where these dynamics are likely to be especially acute in 2026. By centering gendered risks as early warning indicators of instability, this report addresses a critical gap in mainstream conflict analysis and offers policymakers, donors, multilateral institutions, and civil society leaders a more inclusive framework for anticipating crises, protecting civilians, and advancing more durable and inclusive peace and security outcomes.
- Topic:
- Security, Women, Armed Conflict, Inclusion, Democratic Backsliding, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Iran, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Colombia, Palestine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan, and Global Focus
181. Advancing Accountability in Development Finance: The Sandra Smithey Fellowship
- Author:
- Rachel Nadelman and Anushka Bose
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
- Abstract:
- The Sandra N. Smithey Fellowship for Equity and Accountability in International Development was created to honor the career of Sandra Smithey, particularly her legacy in amplifying frontline voices that champion transparent and accountable approaches to development finance. Between 2023 and 2025, the Smithey Fellowship, administered by the Accountability Research Center (ARC) at American University, provided support to eight advocates advancing accountability in development finance. The central premise of the Fellowship is that accountability work is most effective when driven by those directly affected by development decisions and supported by flexible, trust-based funding. ARC worked with each of the fellows to define their own strategic goals and approaches within the time or resources available, seeking to ensure that each could meet the most pressing opportunities or challenges they faced. It provided them with significant flexibility to make mid-course changes to respond to political realities on the ground. The philosophy of “putting the fellows first” resulted in eight bespoke fellowships that reflected the breadth of civil society efforts to promote community- and context-based accountability in international development finance. Across these experiences, several key lessons emerge: Flexibility is a foundation for impact and sustainability. When fellows were given space to adapt to rapidly changing contexts, they achieved outcomes that rigid programs might have constrained. Altering conventional fellowship designs can change the balance in north-south knowledge hierarchies. An adaptable fellowship structure enabled some fellows to pursue their projects whilst embedded in their local communities, accessing support where their work was already taking shape. Translating knowledge can enable power shifts. Fellows who converted technical or bureaucratic language into practical tools enabled communities to engage institutions on their own terms. Collaboration is a vehicle for continuity of both projects and relationships. Collaboration among mentors, allies, and civil society organizations extended the reach of individual projects and embedded learning in broader movements. Longer-term influence depended on intentional efforts to maintain networks, communication, and financial stability after formal support ended. Enabling frontline expertise to shape accountability narratives can effectively support existing movements for rights and remedy. The fellows demonstrated that it is those closest to injustice that have the insight and credibility to define what accountability should mean in their own contexts as a basis for transformative change. This Accountability Note describes the work of these fellows and explores how a targeted package of direct funding, reflecting the fellows’ priorities and accompanied by trusted partners, enabled them to respond effectively to new and changing conditions. Ultimately, the Smithey Fellowship demonstrated that modest, well-structured support, grounded in trust, autonomy, and solidarity, can enable progress towards accountability and enable advocates to define and pursue their own paths in building durable movements for justice.
- Topic:
- Accountability, Sustainability, Fellowships, and Development Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
182. Compounded Vulnerability: Spatial Patterns of Energy Burden, Heat Exposure, and Pollution in New York City
- Author:
- Ximena Aristizabal and Paola Jaimes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- Energy insecurity and climate risk increasingly intersect in urban areas, yet they are often treated as separate challenges. This paper examines how household energy affordability stress, extreme heat exposure, and ambient air pollution overlap across urban space, using New York City as a case study. We introduce the concept of compounded vulnerability to describe neighborhoods where high energy burden and high heat exposure coincide, potentially intensifying environmental and health risks. Drawing on tract-level energy burden estimates, satellite-derived surface temperature measures, and summer PM2.5 concentrations, we combine a place-based interpretation of urban infrastructure and historical disinvestment with a tract-level empirical analysis of co-located risks. We document spatial co-location of economic and environmental stressors: neighborhoods facing higher energy burden are, on average, hotter, and areas experiencing joint exposure to heat and energy stress are also situated in environments characterized by elevated summer pollution. These patterns point to a plausible urban mechanism through which climatic extremes interact with energy systems and the built environment, shaping unequal exposure during periods of peak stress.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Pollution, Vulnerability, Energy Security, and Heat
- Political Geography:
- New York, North America, and United States of America
183. The Under-theorisation of Dollar Dominance
- Author:
- Photis Lysandrou
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- The recent period has seen an upsurge in predictions that the dollar's international dominance will at some point be challenged by a rival currency, notably the euro. This paper counters these predictions. It argues that the overestimation of the euro's ability to challenge dollar dominance is due to the under-theorisation of the foundations of that dominance, the root problem being macroeconomic theories' tradition of taking the household investor to be the representative investor when it should in reality be an institutional asset manager. If financial securities are viewed through the lens of the institutional investor it becomes clear that there can be no exodus from the dollar because it becomes clear that foreign investors remain attracted to the US capital market for reasons as much to do with its mass and consequent gravitational force as to do with a shortage of securities that can be supplied by other capital markets.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Investment, Macroeconomics, Currency, Dollar, Euro, and Capital Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
184. Contesting and Reassessing the 'Too Much Finance' Hypothesis: A Literature Review
- Author:
- Tania Rojas
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- This paper reviews recent contributions that reassess and contest the “too much finance” hypothesis. It surveys a predominantly empirical body of work that, in contrast to earlier studies focused mainly on advanced economies, increasingly incorporates developing and less-developed regions. The evidence reviewed suggests that an inverted-U-shaped relationship between financial development and economic growth is more consistently identified in studies of advanced economies. In contrast, analyses of samples of less-developed countries more frequently report positive linear or U-shaped relationships, pointing to conditions of “too little finance.” The review also documents methodological shifts in the literature, including a growing adoption of nonlinear modeling strategies, the use of alternative measures of financial development, and a greater focus on mediating factors in the finance-growth nexus. The paper concludes that a clear consensus remains elusive. The literature faces persistent methodological challenges, sensitivity to model specification and sample composition, and a prevailing emphasis on empirical estimation rather than theoretical discussion.
- Topic:
- Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Literature Review, and Financial Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
185. Analysis of Van Province’s Migration from Iran by Geographically Weighted Regression Method
- Author:
- Bahadır Yüzbaşı and Çetin Görür
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The ability of migrants to adapt to their new environment in a short period of time while establishing a new life is an important factor affecting the welfare of both individuals and societies. The process of adaptation can determine the quality of life of the individual, reflecting the migrant’s ability to adapt socially, economically and culturally to their new environment. Adaptation in the new life after migration is usually associated with factors such as age, post-migration support from public institutions, postmigration support from relatives, post-migration support from neighbors, and inadequate educational opportunities. In this study, migration from Iran to Van province was analyzed using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. The analysis focused on identifying the factors that influence individuals’ responses to the statement “I adapted to my new life in a short time after migration”. According to the analysis results, it is observed that the GWR method gives stronger results. In comparison to the ordinary least squares (OLS) model, the GWR model demonstrates clear superiority across all evaluation criteria, indicating that the GWR model provides a substantially better fit to the data by capturing spatial variability more effectively.
- Topic:
- Migration, Integration, Forced Migration, Spatial Heterogeneity, and Local Modeling
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Van
186. Impact of Migration Policies on Ukrainian Migrants in Turkey: Embrace vs Provision
- Author:
- Şebnem Köşer Akçapar and Filiz Tutku Aydın
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The aim of this study is to elucidate decision-making processes of Ukrainian forced migrants of diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds relocated in Turkey in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian War since 2022. We examine trends in prospective plans, including return, settlement, migration to third countries, and identify key factors influencing social integration in Turkey. To this end, extensive field research was conducted in five provinces in Turkey – İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir, Eskişehir and Antalya – between 2022 and 2024. This study employed qualitative method consisting of in-depth interviews with a wide range of stakeholders, including Ukrainian diplomatic representatives, migrant organizations, Turkish provincial migration management officials, and post-2022 Ukrainian migrants who were residing in Turkey under various statuses. The findings indicated that decisions between permanence and transience were determined by the state’s migrant and asylum policies along the embrace and provision continuum. In addition, active involvement of ethnic organizations of Ukrainians in migration processes appear to act as a factor that either triggers or hinders social cohesion.
- Topic:
- Asylum, Decision-Making, Forced Migration, Migrants, Russia-Ukraine War, and Migration Policy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East
187. Diplomacy Meets Paradiplomacy: Unpacking Central Government Responses through Evidence from Turkey’s Paradiplomac
- Author:
- Esra Kaya Erdoğan and Emrah Atar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This study examines the central government’s response to the paradiplomacy of sub-state actors through an analysis of the Turkish case, using a qualitative approach. As part of this research, a total of twelve face-to-face or virtual interviews were conducted with the representatives from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Marmara Municipalities Union, and academics between June 2023 and November 2023. It views paradiplomacy as an outcome of the ongoing trend to localize diplomacy and aims to identify varying central government responses to paradiplomacy. These responses are analyzed using a three-fold categorization: positive, negative and mixed. The characteristics of each category explored in the context of the Turkish case. The study suggests that, despite the central government’s opportunistic approach to paradiplomacy, its response has shown a cyclical tendency. The central government’s stance on paradiplomacy is therefore complex and politically driven. It fluctuates along a broad spectrum, ranging from direct support to outright exclusion. This reflects the shifting political dynamics in Turkey.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Governance, Municipalities, and Sub-state Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
188. The European Court of Human Rights Framework of the Property Issue in Cyprus: An Evaluation of the Immovable Property Commission
- Author:
- Perçem Arman and Özde Bayraktar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- Despite being physically divided in 1974, no peace agreement has been made in Cyprus since then. Amongst the issues awaiting solution, perhaps the most difficult one is the property issue. Problems related to property rights have been brought to the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) on several occasions. This study focuses on the Immovable Property Commission (IPC), which was established in accordance with the jurisprudence of the ECtHR. In a frozen conflict environment, the ECtHR, although not a transitional justice mechanism for resolving human rights violations in armed conflicts, occasionally plays an effective role in pressuring national authorities to repair the destructive effects of conflict periods. This study assesses the effectiveness of the IPC’s role in addressing property issues in general and within this specific context.
- Topic:
- Displacement, Transitional Justice, Property, Compensation, and European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
189. Lost in Definition: How Confusion over Agentic AI Risks Undermining U.S. Governance Frameworks
- Author:
- Yasir Atalan, Ian Reynolds, and Benjamin Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- “Agentic AI” is an umbrella term that covers a wide range of systems from basic chat assistants to complex autonomous workflows. This ambiguity risks undermining U.S. governance frameworks and creating procurement vulnerabilities that expose organizations to mismatched capabilities and unaccounted risks. If the same vague word is applied to a helpful chatbot and a combat-ready swarm, the United States could accidentally deploy a system with the power to start an operation before that system understands the context or risks involved. The danger is not that the AI lacks intelligence, but that it lacks judgment; a system might be smart enough to execute a task perfectly yet fail to realize that a sudden change in the local situation makes that task a catastrophic mistake. This is particularly critical in national security environments where decisionmaking stakes are high. There is a need for clearer context charts for AI workflows so that commanders know exactly which tasks a machine can handle alone and exactly which who is responsible if the machine makes a mistake. The U.S. government must establish a relational, capability-based taxonomy that specifies where systems sit in workflows, what authorities they exercise, and how accountability is distributed. This approach shifts acquisition and oversight from a narrow focus on technical features to understanding broad organizational impact and ensuring evaluation matches real operational risk.
- Topic:
- Governance, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, Economic Security, and Defense Spending
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
190. The Rise of “Watt’s Law” and Why Power Could Put a Ceiling on American Innovation
- Author:
- Maryam Cope
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- A foundational advantage of the U.S. digital economy is weakening. For decades, Moore’s Law and Dennard scaling delivered steady improvements in computing performance while keeping energy costs manageable and underpinning productivity growth, industrial competitiveness, and national security capabilities. AI workloads upend these assumptions. Modern AI systems depend on massive parallelism, continuous data movement, and sustained operation across large clusters, making energy utilization and availability more important than peak chip performance. This shift defines the emergence of “Watt’s Law.” Under Watt’s Law, AI capability scales with available power growth multiplied by system-wide innovation driven by full-stack optimization across hardware, software, networking, and operations. This can be measured by growth in tokens per joule of energy. Power is now the significant binding constraint on AI progress. National competitive advantage increasingly depends on who can most efficiently convert electricity into sustained, real-world AI output, rather than who builds the smallest transistors. The implications are strategic. Failure to adapt to a power-constrained scaling regime risks forfeiting a key source of productivity growth and long-term advantage in AI-enabled economic and national security capabilities. It also has implications for U.S. partnerships with energy-rich allies.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
191. China’s Solar Industry Is in Upheaval—The Effects Will Be Global
- Author:
- Michael Davidson and Sandy Qian
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Over the past few years, China’s solar industry has entered a period of intense upheaval. Price wars and margin compression have forced industry leaders—including Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar—to report significant losses. These firms, along with LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei—the industry’s top five—slashed their workforce by over 30 percent in 2024. The market is facing industry consolidation and exits not seen in over a decade, as over 40 smaller firms have filed for bankruptcy, been acquired, or exited the market. Chinese regulators are accelerating this process, which will have ripple effects across global solar markets. Several critical questions arise: Does this phase erode China’s leadership in solar, or entrench it further? Is it a window for others to close the gap, or a prelude to deeper market displacement? And when the current wave of capacity consolidation settles, what will the next global competitive order look like? The answer is already emerging. Rather than opening space for rivals to catch up, the current shocks are forging a more resilient Chinese solar core. By embedding deeper into global value chains and securing a technological lead, China is effectively reshaping the industry’s future trajectory to its own long-term advantage.
- Topic:
- Sustainability, Industry, Solar Power, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
192. Practical H-1B Reforms to Serve U.S. Economic Interests
- Author:
- Philip Luck and Thibault Denamiel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- In its first year, the second Trump administration has implemented substantial changes to the H-1B immigration program. Some of these changes will create significant economic harm; others have the potential to improve efficiency and support industrial policy goals, with further adjustments. In September 2025, the administration announced a $100,000 fee on new petitions for H-1B visas outside of the United States, a likely prohibitive increase in costs for many firms seeking to hire skilled immigrant labor. In parallel, the administration released a final rule last December to increase the visa lottery system’s allocation efficiency. The administration’s lottery reform would benefit from additional changes to better distribute the economic dividends of skilled immigration to underserved geographies and priority sectors. Such policy changes are critically important to U.S. competitiveness, given the program’s track record of success in attracting global talent and driving economic growth. To strengthen the United States’ technological advantage, innovation ecosystem, and economic prosperity, policymakers should look to expand the H-1B program and reform its incentives while limiting costly new barriers to its use.
- Topic:
- Reform, Innovation, Economic Security, Immigration Policy, and H-1B Visa
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
193. Energy Infrastructure and the Defense Industrial Base
- Author:
- Joseph Majkut, Alexander Palmer, and Raj Sawhney
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Can the energy infrastructure serving the U.S. defense industrial base sustain production under mobilization? This paper focuses on three scenarios for mobilization consistent with baseline production, defense buildup, and peer war. Using embodied energy methods, the research team estimates that war production rates would require 17.4 petajoules (PJ) of energy annually, a relatively small amount nationally, but one that would need to be concentrated at facilities in already stressed grid regions. Facilities for the defense-critical production of steel, aluminum, titanium, and semiconductors are clustered in regions already facing eroding reserve margins and surging data center demands. Natural gas deliverability constraints compound these risks, as key facilities depend on gas both as direct fuel and as the primary source of regional electricity generation. This paper recommends extending defense-critical electric infrastructure designations to industrial nodes, creating dedicated permitting and finance pathways to facilitate energy production, and integrating energy resilience into supply chain risk assessments.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Sustainability, and Defense Industry
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
194. Using Minerals and Energy to Rebuild the U.S.-South Africa Relationship
- Author:
- Gracelin Baskaran
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The United States is quietly losing access to the minerals that underpin its defense systems, semiconductor manufacturing, and reindustrialization agenda—not through geopolitical confrontation, but through commercial neglect. South Africa is the dominant U.S. supplier of platinum group metals, chromium, manganese, and military-grade vanadium, and no allied nation comes close to matching its combination of mineral wealth, processing capacity, and technical expertise. Yet rising energy costs and crumbling infrastructure are pushing South Africa’s processing sector toward closure, and without intervention, that capacity will continue migrating to China by default. As political tensions between Washington and Pretoria have intensified, it is worth remembering what is actually at stake: a supply relationship built over more than a century that would be extraordinarily costly to lose and nearly impossible to replace.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Trade, Economic Security, Semiconductors, Energy, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America
195. Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine: Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power. Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century. Meanwhile, Russia’s war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, slowing growth of 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms to help drive long-term productivity.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Economics, Intelligence, Science and Technology, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
196. Trump’s New Nuclear Architecture for Modernization and Arms Control
- Author:
- Heather Williams and Nicholas Adamopoulos
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Expanding upon the National Defense Strategy (NDS), Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno recently announced a new nuclear architecture “that addresses the threats of today, not those of a bygone era,” including nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) and China’s growing nuclear arsenal. Facing this increasingly volatile security environment, the United States under the Trump administration must simultaneously modernize its nuclear arsenal and pursue arms control and risk reduction measures. To deter adversaries and manage escalation especially in theater conflicts, the United States may need to diversify and expand its nuclear arsenal, including by investing in nuclear-capable standoff weapons. Following this new architecture, the administration should also continue to work toward arms control agreements with both China and Russia, including risk reduction measures, such as a Presidential Nuclear Summit.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, Modernization, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
197. The Agency of Middle Powers in a Fragmented and Polarised World
- Author:
- Thomas Greminger
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
- Abstract:
- The international system is entering a period of intensified fragmentation and geopolitical polarisation. Competition among China, Russia, and the United States is reshaping the global order and redefining spheres of influence. These dynamics create both challenges and opportunities for middle powers, which must navigate contested spaces where alignment with one great power can generate tensions with others. Middle powers face a delicate balance: they seek to preserve their autonomy, influence multilateral institutions and maintain credibility in international networks, and their choices whether to align with a particular great power, hedge their international relationship bets, or engage in principled diplomacy can either stabilise fragmented regions or amplify systemic competition. Yet debates about the future of the international order tend to focus on great powers and institutional reform, leaving the behaviour of middle powers under-explored. This Policy Brief examines how middle powers can exercise strategic autonomy and influence in a fragmented world. It emphasises behaviour, relational positioning, and policy choices rather than material capacity alone by analysing how middle powers balance principles with pragmatism; manage geography and alignment; and engage in bridge-building, coalition-building, and mediation. It then assesses their capacity to stabilise regional and global orders, support multilateralism, and enhance systemic resilience.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, Polarization, and Middle Powers
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, Global Focus, and United States of America
198. Guidelines for Decarbonizing Industry in Time to Meet Global Climate Goals
- Author:
- Chris Bataille, Seton Stiebert, and Francis Li
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Near-term guidance for decarbonizing global industry is needed to ensure it happens on pace to meet Paris Agreement climate goals. Such insights would help industry and financial decision-makers as well as inform government policies meant to support the transition toward lower-carbon energy sources. This report combines a review of country diplomatic commitments, policies, and industrial roadmaps with decarbonization scenarios and new global modeling to suggest timelines, carbon prices, regulations, and lead markets for clean products, to replace unabated fossil fuel–powered industrial facilities and equipment with near-zero carbon emissions alternatives. It also estimates the capital and operating expenditures required, and provides policy options to support these efforts.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Industry, Paris Agreement, and Decarbonization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
199. Assessing US Government Efforts to Support Fossil Fuel–Reliant Communities
- Author:
- Noah Kaufman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The decline of domestic fossil fuel production in the United States poses serious economic risks for communities that rely on fossil fuel industries for jobs and public revenues. Many of these communities lack the resources and capacity to manage those risks on their own. The absence of viable economic strategies for affected regions is a barrier to building the broad, durable coalitions needed for an equitable national transition to cleaner energy sources. President Joe Biden touted investments into fossil fuel–reliant communities as part of his administration’s broader place-based economic and climate change strategies. This study assesses those federal efforts, examining the rationale, design, and implementation status of the major programs involved.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Government, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
200. Predicting protest participation: Insights from the year before Kenya’s 2024 anti-tax demonstrations
- Author:
- Daniel Iberi and Kamal Yakubu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Protests – often described as “unconventional” or “non-institutional” forms of political participation (Barnes & Kaase, 1979; Hooghe & Marien, 2013) – have increased markedly across Africa since 2010, a trend sometimes referred to as the continent’s “third wave of protests” (Mueller, 2018; Najimdeen, 2024). Protests such as South Africa’s #RhodesMustFall (2015) and #FeesMustFall (2016), Zimbabwe’s #ThisFlag protests (2016), Nigeria’s #EndSARS demonstrations (2020), and Madagascar’s 2025 demonstrations that toppled President Andry Rajoelina illustrate both the breadth and political significance of this wave (Fihlani, 2019; Lawal, 2024; Princewill, 2025). In Kenya, patterns of protest participation have evolved considerably over the past two decades. While the country has experienced repeated episodes of mass protest – most notably around contested elections in 2007, 2013, and 2017 – the character of protest activity has shifted, with recent protests increasingly centred on economic grievances, cost-of-living pressures, and perceptions of fiscal injustice rather than electoral disputes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Protests, Tax Systems, and Vulnerability
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa