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132. California Wildfires and Planetary Health
- Author:
- Pey Peili
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The California wildfires are an environmental disaster, but they also point to a deeper set of challenges, not only for the United States of America but for the global community. Such wildfires, which are ever-increasing in frequency and scale due to the impact of climate change, result in structural damage and long-term health risks that disproportionately affect vulnerable communities and are a costly burden to the state. A planetary health approach highlights the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the climate-environment-health interface in managing the risk and incidence of wildfires.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Health, Natural Disasters, and Wildfires
- Political Geography:
- California, North America, and United States of America
133. Assad Regime's Rapid Fall Rattles Russia's Middle East Strategy
- Author:
- Filip Bryjka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria seriously weakens Russia’s position in the Middle East and its ability to provide security to its allies. After 13 years of supporting the dictatorship, Russia is also losing its ability to influence the political situation in Syria and its neighbourhood The Russian government’s priority is to keep the right to use the military bases in the country—a naval base in Tartus and an air base in Khmeimim. Losing them would make it difficult for Russia to conduct military operations in the Mediterranean and Africa.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, Influence, and Military Bases
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, and Syria
134. Moldova and Separatist Transnistria Facing Severe Energy Crisis
- Author:
- Jakub Pieńkowski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since 1 January, Ukraine—struggling to fight off the Russian invasion—has not extended permission for the transit of Russian gas to Transnistria, which had received free supplies from Russia, leading to an energy crisis. Moldova, in turn, has lost access to cheap electricity produced by the Transnistrian gas-fired power plant at Kuchurgan (MGRES), causing energy prices to rise dramatically. This weakens the prospects for the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) to remain in power after this year’s parliamentary elections.
- Topic:
- Separatism, Energy Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Moldova and Transnistria
135. Trump Takes on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s actions and announcements to date regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are reversing the decisions of previous administrations and strengthening Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position. At the same time, they threaten the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The deliberately ambiguous statements about the resolution of the crisis seem gauged to increase pressure on regional states and European partners.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
136. China Building Up BRICS as Important Foreign Policy Tool
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- BRICS is useful for China in its rivalry with the U.S., mainly as a tool to influence developing countries. It is also an important element of strategic cooperation with Russia and a platform for dialogue with India. China does not care about BRICS integration, instead it wants to consolidate the group’s participants to further China’s goals.. The EU’s response to this should include effective support for developing countries and a subjective approach to their demands for global governance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, BRICS, Rivalry, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
137. The U.S. Pursues Increasingly Aggressive Policy towards Latin America
- Author:
- Bartłomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to rebuild U.S. influence in Latin America. It is trying to convince the countries of the region that cooperation with the United States will bring development and increased security to the Americas. For the time being, however, this approach mainly serves U.S. security interests, in particular combating irregular migration, organised crime and drug trafficking, and reducing China’s influence. The current administration’s threats, inconsistent positions, and expansionist drive will deepen the distrust of the U.S. and antagonise important Latin American partners.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Drug Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America
138. U.S. Interest in Greenland Reflects the Ongoing Competition in the Arctic
- Author:
- Kinga Dudzińska and Paweł Markiewicz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested his intention to attach Greenland to the U.S., a move that has met with opposition from the Greenlandic and Danish governments. The pressure from the U.S. is one manifestation of its aspirations to strengthen its position in the North Atlantic, both because of the strategic importance of the island and the growing international rivalries in the Arctic. The situation will require greater EU and NATO involvement in the High North, as well as consideration of this perspective by countries outside the region, such as Poland.
- Topic:
- NATO, European Union, Donald Trump, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Greenland, Arctic, and United States of America
139. Baltic and Nordic States Assess the Russian Military Threat
- Author:
- Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The newest intelligence reports by the Baltic and Nordic states jointly warn about the aggressive intentions and reconstitution of Russia’s armed forces. All of the documents assume the successful implementation of plans for larger Russian land and airborne forces till the end of 2026. However, these reports differ in the estimates of when the political moment and Russia’s conventional capabilities may permit it to initiate open conflict with NATO. Despite their informational and analytical contents, these reports may affect the Baltic region states’ capabilities development plans and their decisions about whether to increase defence spending.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States
140. İmamoğlu Arrested: Türkiye Shifting to Autocracy
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Demonstrations in Türkiye erupted in March when the Istanbul prosecutor’s office launched an investigation of that city’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opponent of current head of state Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2028 presidential contest. The attack on the opposition candidate appears to be a turning point indicating Türkiye’s entry onto the path of authoritarianism, which will negatively affect the state of Turkish-EU relations.
- Topic:
- European Union, Domestic Politics, Autocracy, and Ekrem İmamoğlu
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East