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121. Some little-known effects of global warming

Author:
Louis Caudron
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In an effort to raise public awareness of the seriousness of the effects of climate change, the media generally associate global warming with increasing heatwaves and droughts, melting glaciers and rising sea levels. In reality, the effects of climate change are much more diverse, and they are not impacting all parts of the world in the same way. There are many losers, but there are also winners. The first example concerns rainfall. Contrary to what some might think, global warming does not mean an increase in drought, but rather an increase in rainfall. The rise in temperature translates into an increase in evaporation both on land and at sea, leading to an increase in rainfall on a global scale. Overall, two-thirds of the world's population will see an increase in rainfall and one-third a decrease. A map published by the CNRS illustration this development.
Topic:
Climate Change, Water, and Drought
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

122. Sino-Russian relations in a geopolitical Europe

Author:
Pierre Andrieu
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The close relationship between Russia and China is by no means a solid, long-term alliance, but rather a temporary rapprochement, that has been strengthened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The fragility of this relationship, based on history and structural imbalances, persists and reinforces mutual mistrust. For the European Union, while all discussions with an aggressive and threatening Russia have disappeared, China remains both “a cooperation and negotiation partner, an economic partner and a systemic rival” with whom we need to maintain a sustained dialogue, commensurate with a Europe that has begun to assert its geopolitical dimension in the last two years.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Rapprochement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Europe

123. Has the time come for European defence?

Author:
Maxime Lefebvre
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
European defence has been a key issue since at least 1948, with the Treaty of Brussels between France, the United Kingdom and the three Benelux countries. At the time, the spirit of the signatories was still to guard against the threat posed by Germany, which was still fresh in people's minds (following on from the Franco-British alliance treaty of Dunkirk in 1947). But it was also increasingly aimed at responding to the threat of the USSR, which was tightening its iron grip on the eastern half of the European continent. As we know, this treaty was soon superseded by the Washington Treaty creating NATO, which is still, to this day, the political and military framework for European defence, coupled with that of the United States. Although the Brussels Treaty eventually disappeared, it survives, notably through the collective defence clause incorporated into the European treaties by the Lisbon Treaty. The idea, the project and the hope of a European defence are still alive, although they have not yet been realised. The war in Ukraine has changed the situation in several ways. Firstly, it places the question of war and peace firmly centre stage in Europe, an issue that had never completely went away, despite the end of the Cold War; however, it is now back at the top of the political agenda. Secondly, the war has led to profound unity in the response of the countries of the European Union to Vladimir Putin's open aggression against Ukraine, and the European Union has asserted itself as a major player complementing NATO and the United States. Finally, it raises the question of whether, should the United States change its policy on Ukraine following the presidential election in November 2024, Europeans would be in a position to take over assistance to Ukraine and move towards a genuine collective defence. To address this issue, it is necessary to take stock of European defence, with its achievements and limitations, and to reflect on the conditions under which a shift towards a genuine European defence could be envisaged.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

124. Health for the Europeans, who cares?

Author:
Tiphaine Maloingne
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The European Union adapts, moves with the times, and evolves. It is these small steps, often made in response to events, that help the European Union to move forward and create the "common narrative" that has kept it solid for 74 years. For several years now, the EU has been working to strengthen its health policy. In other words, the European Union is gradually building a new common narrative: European health. But in the gradual creation of this policy, what place is given to European citizens and their health? Through considerations that are at once temporal, justificatory, technical and imaginary, this paper offers readers an overview of the contours of a new health system for Europeans.
Topic:
Health, European Union, Citizenship, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
Europe

125. The European Union enlarged from 27 to 36 members? Towards an "Agenda 2030"

Author:
Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The Western Balkans today still confirm Bronislaw Geremek’s premonition in 1990: "Three dangers lurk in the post-communist transition: populism, authoritarian temptation and nationalism.” These three tendencies are converging in ethno-nationalisms that are stalling the process of stabilisation and association of the six countries with the European Union. The pursuit of the rule of law is being made all the more difficult because the Balkans are growing poorer while the European Union is getting richer. In the east, association with Ukraine and Moldova has progressed, but the Russian occupation continues. Russia has shattered the international legal order with its aggression in Ukraine and is fighting against the values that Europe promotes and whose echoes resonate in the Balkans. The European Union has responded by reviving the accession process with the Balkans and by opening negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, and perhaps in time it will do the same with Georgia. The complexity of this dual commitment, which would see the European Union grow from 27 to 36 members, requires that its many challenges be openly set out in an "Agenda 2030", with gradual integration forming the core of a renewed process.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

126. New European Challenges: the "Schuman" lesson

Author:
Jean-Dominique Giuliani
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Since the health crisis, the European Union has changed. Since the Russian war in Ukraine, these changes have accelerated, to the extent that the face it presents today bears little resemblance to what it was just five years ago. The European institutions have had to adapt to the needs expressed by the Member States. They themselves have drawn their own conclusions from the changing geopolitical situation. These upheavals have led to spectacular advances, but also to some mistakes.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Crisis Management, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

127. Unity Versus Division in South East Europe on Global Conflict Issues

Author:
Plamen Plantev
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
In the period after the end of the Cold War and especially after the end of the regime of Milosevic the region of South East Europe has been dialectically oscillating and slowly moving to the objective set by the EU in 2003 in Thessaloniki of integrating it in the Union. The Russian invasion and unprovoked full-fledged aggressive war against Ukraine shook the slow movement towards the integration in the geopolitical by nature EU. The realities of the reborn by Russia Nazi behaviour in occupied Ukrainian territories poses fundamental moral questions and requires brave political decisions. Graham Green’s words . in his novel “The Quiet American” – ‘sooner or later ... one has to take sides. If one is to remain human’, could be considered the moral and geopolitical compass and navigator in these turbulent times, including in the region of South East Europe. It is not easy for many people in Europe, including in the Western Balkans to realize that South East Europe has become a front-line region in a war that aims to reverse the course of history and change the way of living in free, peaceful, democratic and increasingly prospering societies. The perception of a rising danger from militarist Russia in the Western Black Sea coastal countries Romania and Bulgaria is a fact of life. The Russian aggression of 24 February 2022 marks a Zeitenwende, a watershed that makes us reconsider older concepts and inclinations. It forces us to think again what is the meaning of minimum standards of international law, how to oppose geopolitical revisionism and how to upgrade our resilience to the level of the one that Ukrainians demonstrate after 15 months of war. Olaf Scholz defined in his speech to the Bundestag on 27 February 2022 the essence of the required resilience in this new situation: “Whether we permit Putin to turn back the clock to the nineteenth century and the age of the great powers. Or whether we have it in us to keep warmongers like Putin in check”1
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Southeast Europe

128. Climate Change, Response, and Mass Atrocities

Author:
Tallan Donine, Madeleine Maclean, and Daniel Solomon
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This paper aims to stimulate and frame discussion during the Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention about the relationship between climate change, climate response, and mass atrocities. Based on a review of relevant research, the paper surveys current knowledge about how factors related to (1) climate change and (2) climate response measures might contribute to the risk and prevention of mass atrocities. In the coming decade, climate change will pose significant risks for communities around the world (Buhaug et al. 2023). Mitigation and adaptation measures taken in response to these risks will occupy a large amount of international attention and have important consequences for global political events. Effective action to help prevent and respond to mass atrocities will require clear analysis of the risks and opportunities that these trends present.
Topic:
Climate Change, Atrocities, Adaptation, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

129. "The Dead Became Uncountable": Mass Atrocities in Sudan

Author:
Danica Damplo
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On April 15th, 2023, fighting broke out in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), headed by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and a powerful paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), headed by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). The conflict has killed more than 13,000 people and displaced more than 7.3 million people.1 The RSF and its allied militias reignited a campaign of widespread, systematic, and ethnically-motivated violence in the region of Darfur, targeting non-Arab communities. Efforts by the United States (US) and others have failed to secure a durable ceasefire or to protect a new generation in Darfur from the risk of genocide. The conflict that began in April is a continuation of the cycles of violence that have persisted in Sudan for decades, including a period of mass atrocities in 2003-2005 in Darfur, for which former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was charged with genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC).2 The SAF and RSF had previously joined forces in 2019 to oust al-Bashir following widespread protests in which the Sudanese people called for transitional justice and a transition to democracy. However, in 2021, the SAF and RSF overthrew the transitional government that had replaced al-Bashir. In April 2023, disagreements between al-Burhan and Hemedti exploded into open warfare.3 While earlier conflicts had spared Sudan’s capital, since April civilians in Khartoum and nearby Omdurman have endured violent clashes, aerial bombardment, sexual violence, and a humanitarian crisis. The conflict spread, with the RSF seeking to control the Darfur region and branching out from the west, and the SAF based out of the city of Port Sudan in the east. The RSF is supplied by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the SAF is supported by Egypt.4 In June 2023, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum sounded the alarm about the dire risk of genocide in Darfur.5 That risk remains high today. None of the conditions referenced in this warning have improved since June, and the numbers of civilians killed or harmed has risen dramatically. Among the communities at greatest risk today are those who survived genocide twenty years ago and who have continued to suffer since. This brief will detail mass atrocities underway in Sudan, highlight present and future risks not only in Darfur but elsewhere, and offer policy options for an effective response.
Topic:
Civil War, Armed Conflict, Atrocity Prevention, Protection, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

130. Risk of Mass Atrocities in India

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Rising levels of discrimination and dehumanization of minority communities in India is putting millions at an increased risk of mass atrocities. India has ranked in the top 15 countries at risk of mass killing since the Early Warning Project’s 2017–18 assessment, including its highest rank of second in the world last year.1 Since coming to power in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have promoted a Hindu nationalist ideology that characterizes India’s Muslim minority population of approximately 200 million people, 14% of the population, as a threat to the security and success of India.2 This identity-based ideology also threatens the safety of other minorities and excluded groups, such as Christian communities and Dalits.3 India’s constitution enshrines egalitarian principles, including nondiscrimination on the basis of religious identity.4 In 2021, a study conducted by the Pew Research Center found that more than 3 out of 4 Indians of all faiths believed that religious tolerance is an important part of being “truly Indian.”5 However, proponents of a decades old Hindu nationalist ideology, Hindutva, believe instead that “Hinduism—not the precarious balancing of all ethnic and religious communities residing in India—is the ultimate source of the country’s identity,” and it is this ideology that is embraced by the BJP and Prime Minister Modi.6 Scott Straus, a leading scholar on mass atrocities, has summarized research about risk factors for anticipating whether mass atrocities are likely to occur in a particular country, and these include: the presence of instability or armed conflict; adherence by political elites to an exclusionary ideology; and a history of discrimination (with impunity) against a particular group.7 Today instability in India is arguably geographically limited, as with the outbreak of conflict in May 2023 in Manipur. India has experienced more widespread inter-communal violence and mass atrocities in the past, with an uneven record of accountability or redress. The BJP today promotes an exclusionary nationalist ideology which privileges the rights of Hindus and presents religious minorities, particularly Muslims, as social and cultural outsiders, and as political and physical threats. This is demonstrated through discriminatory legislation, and a barrage of hate speech, including by political and religious leaders, that has tipped into outright incitement to violence. If nothing is done to address these risks, India may continue to experience a rise in the number of violent (and fatal) attacks against religious minorities, an escalation in the scale of the violence, and an increased level of state involvement in atrocities. Many countries, including the United States, view India as an important strategic partner on multiple fronts, including economically and politically as a counter to China's influence in the region. This can make discussions of mass atrocity risk more sensitive, but it should also demonstrate the ways in which mass atrocities in India could reverberate. For example, violence in states along India’s borders with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Burma could exacerbate insecurity in India’s neighbors. Discrimination and mass violence in India could also undermine the assumptions of stability and shared values on which global initiatives are being built.8
Topic:
Minorities, Discrimination, Narendra Modi, Atrocity Prevention, Protection, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India