Publication Year: - CIAO Search Results

1. Fateful Collision: NATO’s Drive to the East Versus Russia’s Sphere of Influence

Author:: James Kurth
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: In December 2021, Russia demanded of the United States and NATO that they sign a formal agreement that they would cease their activities to bring certain countries, particularly Ukraine and Georgia, into NATO membership and to place offensive weapons, particularly missile systems, within a broader range of countries within Central and Eastern Europe.1 As news headlines around the world proclaim, the Russians have backed up these demands by deploying 100,000 troops near Russia’s border with Ukraine. This ultimatum represents by far the most fundamental and gravest Russian challenge to the way that NATO has conceived of its mission and conducted its activities since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the accompanying end of the Cold War. The actual content of Russia’s demands, however, is not at all new. Ever since the first post-Cold War expansion of NATO eastward in 1999 (i.e., the admission to membership of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary), Russia has been clear and consistent in objecting to NATO’s expansion to the East as a threat to its vital security interests. They have been especially sensitive to any expansion into the former republics of the Soviet Union. These include not only Ukraine and Georgia, which are the current subjects of dispute, but also the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which became full members of NATO as early as 2004.
Topic:: NATO, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and Ukraine

2. Shared Human Values and the Great Powers’ Competition: Trends in the Evolution of the International Relations System

Author:: Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: Unless we change and improve the quality of the international relations system (IRS) – the political toolbox for building a community with a shared future for mankind, for more effective global governance and for a more balanced global partnership for development, we shall miss the historic chance and still open window of opportunity to reach these lofty goals. How to shape such a better functioning IRS? What are its invariant characteristics in the second decade of the 21st century?
Topic:: International Relations, Governance, International Relations Theory, Strategic Competition, and Power
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. Pakistan Security Report 2021

Author:: Safdar Sial, Muhammad Amir Rana, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: While the political and security situation in neighboring Afghanistan is still fluid, concerns are growing inside Pakistan about the possible fallout including in terms of increased insecurity, border tensions, and militant violence. For one, the developments in Afghanistan had already started influencing Pakistan’s militant landscape in 2021 as the year witnessed not only an increase in terrorist attacks by the Pakistani Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but also an intensified terrorist violence by Baloch insurgent groups mainly in Balochistan. Meanwhile, Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) province also emerged as one of the key actors of violence and instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan during the year. While the Afghan Taliban find it difficult to convince the world to recognize their government and activate/unfreeze financial channels, they are also finding it increasingly hard to address the domestic challenges mainly those linked to governance, security, and intra-Afghan reconciliation. Despite their repeated promises to not allow anyone to use the Afghan soil against Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban have yet not seriously considered to act against the TTP; except having facilitated the talks between Pakistani government and the TTP which have also not shown any successes so far. Nonetheless, there have been critical statements about Pakistan from some Taliban officials on multiple occasions about Pakistan’s democratic political system as well as fencing of the border by Pakistani security forces. Pakistan has eventually conveyed its concerns to the Afghan interim government about Afghan officials’ repeated efforts to damage the border fencing saying it was observing maximum restraint.
Topic:: Security, National Security, and International Security
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Asia

4. The Development Response to Kleptocracy and Strategic Corruption

Author:: Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Kleptocracies do not stop at their own borders. The same actors, networks, tactics, and resources that they wield to prevent democracy and rule of law from sprouting at home are also repurposed for foreign aggression. While cronies, oligarchs, and lesser operatives do get rich in the process, “strategic corruption” is chiefly a geopolitical weapon directed by autocratic regimes to secretly undermine the sovereignty of other countries. The three most common manifestations of strategic corruption vary on a spectrum of how directly and boldly they violate sovereignty and subvert democratic processes. Starting with the most indirect and chronic form of strategic corruption, Russia and China invest “corrosive capital” throughout Eastern Europe and the Belt and Road Initiative, respectively. They use corrupt patronage networks and opaque business dealings to spread their kleptocratic model of authoritarian governance. Those corrupt investments are usually also supported by tactics of “malign influence,” like when a minister or politician receives bribes or economic threats until they censor their political speech, advance a foreign policy initiative, or otherwise subordinate the legitimate sovereign interests entrusted to them by their own people in favor of the interests of a foreign power. Finally, the most direct and acute form of strategic corruption involves financial methods of election interference and other tactics of corrupting democratic processes. Often funded with the proceeds of kleptocracy, election interference through covert political financing has become the bailiwick of Kremlin-directed oligarchs. Separate from those three manifestations of strategic corruption—corrosive capital, malign influence, and election interference—China and Russia try to hide their dirty money and malign activities by pressuring foreign journalists into silence through surveillance, thuggery, and lawsuits. Western foreign assistance has not yet offered a coherent response to kleptocracy and strategic corruption, but that is starting to change under the Biden administration. Building resilience to this transnational threat through foreign aid will require four new approaches that are more political and coordinated than traditional development assistance. First, aid should be informed by local political analysis. More important and less used than technical reviews of laws and institutions, political analysis should center anti-corruption efforts around known corrupt activity. That starts by asking sensitive questions about which individuals, institutions, and sectors are the most corrupt, how extensively their networks of wealth and power span, and which corrupt figures must be held accountable to thoroughly purge grand corruption. Second, aid should be responsive to political shifts, scaling up and down, respectively, in response to windows of opportunity for anti-corruption reform and times of backsliding toward kleptocracy. Third, aid responses to kleptocracy should be coordinated at the regional and global levels, similarly to how grand corruption operates across borders through transnational networks of actors and tools. Fourth, anti-corruption programming should be deeply integrated across the traditional sectors of assistance, particularly health, infrastructure, energy, climate, and security. Some of these new approaches are already being prioritized under the Biden administration’s new strategy to combat corruption, particularly coordinating across tools and sectors to fight transnational corruption. But operationalizing this mission will be no small endeavor, given that anti-corruption assistance is delivered through a notoriously technocratic and apolitical bureaucracy built during the Cold War to aid socioeconomic development in individual countries steadily over decades. But getting this right offers the key to defending democracies from autocratic aggression, showing how democracy can deliver, and even helping bring foreign policy and domestic politics into alignment for the first time in a generation.
Topic:: Corruption, Development, Finance, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus

5. Sanctions, Economic Statecraft, and Venezuela’s Crisis

Author:: César Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:: This case study summarizes the evidence on the effect on Venezuela’s economic and social conditions of economic sanctions and other actions of economic statecraft taken by the United States and its allies in response to the country’s political crisis. The preponderance of evidence indicates that sanctions and other statecraft measures—including the formal recognition of a government with no de facto control over the territory—have had a strong and significant negative effect on the Venezuelan economy. These actions have made a sizable contribution to declining oil production, exacerbating the country’s fiscal crisis, and contributing to one of the largest documented peacetime economic contractions in modern history. Many arguments commonly voiced to dispute the effects of sanctions, such as those that appeal to temporal precedence of other causes of the country’s crisis, are either factually incorrect or premised on fallacious logic. Reforming the sanctions regime will be a complex task, given the interaction with other statecraft measures and a broader toxification of the country’s economic relations. Reform attempts should include the introduction of an oil-for-essentials program, support for political humanitarian agreements, issuance of clearer compliance guidelines, introducing an explicit differentiation between strategic and nonstrategic sanctions, and seeking multilateral alignment with international actors on key strategic issues including that of government recognition.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economics, Sanctions, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

6. Theorizing The State and Its Autonomy in Western IR: A Comparative Analysis of Realist and Historical Sociological Approaches.

Author:: Alper Kaliber
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: This article examines how the state, its core characteristics, domestic and international agential capacities are conceptualized by the realist paradigms of IR and Weberian Historical Sociology (WHS) as its critique. In doing this, the study seeks to address the pitfalls and deficiencies of the realist conception of the state and unravel limitations and strengths of WHS to remedy these Realist deficiencies to reach a more sophisticated theory of the state. It also calls for a serious engagement between WHS and post-positivist IR to theorise the historically and politically constructed nature of state identity and to transcend the internal/international divide characterising the Realist epistemology
Topic:: Weberian Historical Sociology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

7. Theorizing The State and Its Autonomy in Western IR: A Comparative Analysis of Realist and Historical Sociological Approaches

Author:: Alper Kaliber
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: This article examines how the state, its core characteristics, domestic and international agential capacities are conceptualized by the realist paradigms of IR and Weberian Historical Sociology (WHS) as its critique. In doing this, the study seeks to address the pitfalls and deficiencies of the realist conception of the state and unravel limitations and strengths of WHS to remedy these Realist deficiencies to reach a more sophisticated theory of the state. It also calls for a serious engagement between WHS and post-positivist IR to theorise the historically and politically constructed nature of state identity and to transcend the internal/international divide characterising the Realist epistemology.
Topic:: International Relations, Realism, State, Autonomy, and Weberian Historical Sociology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. ‘Global’ IR and Self-Reflections in Turkey: Methodology, Data Collection, and Data Repository

Author:: Ismail Erkam Sula
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article covers the disciplinary debates on ‘global’ IR and the self-reflections of IR scholars about the state of the discipline in Turkey. It argues that high quality methodological training can contribute to overcoming the dissatisfaction felt by scholars of IR in Turkey. It suggests that inclusion of IR knowledge produced in the non-core into the ‘Global’ pool can be achieved through local ‘revolutions’, and that the potential for progress in this direction lies in methodological improvement and data-collection projects. The article offers three exemplary data projects to crystalize the argument: the Social Sciences Data Repository, the Global Security Database (GloSec) and the Global Risk Assessment Dataset (GRAD). These projects aim to: disseminate data-based research and encourage data sharing among scholars in Turkey, train prospective IR scholars to produce research based on clear, replicable, and rigorous methodology in Turkey, encourage graduate students in Turkish universities to have a global scholarly outreach and talk to the global scholarly community, and contribute to IR scholarship with these local pedagogical and academic experiences. Two separate groups of researchers composed of graduate students from various universities across Turkey are trained in the ways of research design, the fundamentals of data collection, and writing research papers based on rigorous methodological design, data, and replicable findings. Thus, the paper not only discusses the diagnoses in the literature regarding the shortcomings of the International Relations discipline in Turkey, but also offers concrete directions for a potential treatment.
Topic:: International Relations, Data, Data Collection, Methodology, and Global Studies
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9. Reflexive Solidarity: Toward a Broadening of What It Means to be “Scientific” in Global IR Knowledge

Author:: Yong-Soo Eun
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article shows that the problem of “West-centrism” in the study of International Relations (IR) is synonymous with the problem of the dominance of positivism, a particular version of science that originated in the modern West. How can we open up this double parochialism in IR? The article calls for reflexive solidarity as a way out. This indicates that on-going Global IR projects need to revamp their geography-orientated approaches and instead seek solidarity with other marginalised scholars irrespective of their geographical locations or geocultural backgrounds to build wide avenues in which not only positivist (i.e., causal-explanatory) inferences but also normative theorising and ethnographically attuned approaches are all accepted as different but equally scientific ways of knowing in IR. As a useful way of going about this reflexive solidarity, this article suggests autobiography.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Solidarity, and Reflexivity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10. The English School and Global IR – A Research Agenda

Author:: Simon F. Taeuber
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This paper explores the different ways in which the English School of International Relations (ES) can contribute to the broader Global IR research agenda. After identifying some of the shared concerns between the ES and Global IR, such as the emphasis placed on history and culture, the paper proceeds with discussing what the authors believe to be the areas in which the ES can align itself more closely with the ideas and values underpinning Global IR: a more thorough engagement with the origins of global international society rooted in dispossession, violence, and colonialism; a more localised and diverse understanding of ‘society’; a sharper and more grounded conceptualisation of ‘the state’ as a basic ontology; an embracement of the interpretivist principle of charity; and a problematisation of assumptions of ‘globality’ of international society. The paper concludes with a tentative research agenda, emphasising the value of fieldwork, local practices and languages, archives, and a theorisation of international society that is grounded in the very social contexts being investigated.
Topic:: International Relations, Research, International Relations Theory, Eurocentrism, and Locality
Political Geography:: Europe

11. Towards Guanxi? Reconciling the “Relational Turn” in Western and Chinese International Relations Scholarship

Author:: Siyang Liu, Jeremy Garlick, and Fangxing Qin
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: In recent years, the “relational turn” in International Relations (IR) theory has attracted extensive attention. However, the limitations of the substantialist ontology of mainstream (Western) IR theory means that it encounters difficulties and dilemmas in interpreting the evolving international system. Against the background of the rapid development of globalization and regional integration, the reality of world politics is constantly changing, and increasingly shows obvious characteristics of interconnection and high interdependence. In this context, there is insufficient research comparing the Western and non-Western versions of the “relational turn”. Relational ontology may be able to provide a bridge between Chinese Confucian philosophy, Western philosophy, Western sociology, and mainstream western IR theories capable of generating productive synergies. However, there are major theoretical and cultural obstacles to be overcome if a reconciliation of the Western and Chinese versions of relationalism is to be achieved.
Topic:: International Relations, International Relations Theory, Academia, Confucianism, Relationality, and Relational Ontology
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Guangxi

12. Globalizing IR: Can Regionalism offer a path for other Sub-Disciplines?

Author:: Hakan Mehmetcik and Hasan Hakses
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Global International Relations (IR) research promotes more spaces for a broader spectrum of histories, insights, and theoretical perspectives beyond the conventional dominant Western ones in the IR discipline. The primary goal of this paper is to highlight that the study of Regionalism has a significant role in supporting the initiative of ‘globalizing IR’ by representing a sub-discipline that is open to new ideas, theories and methods, especially those emanating from non-Western contexts. As such, Regionalism is one of the sub-disciplines of IR and International Political Economy (IPE) with a tremendous potential to showcase global-IR trends. This article utilizes a bibliometric analysis as a proxy for mapping out the diverse and complex intellectual structure of Regionalism as a sub-discipline of IR. Our findings indicate that the remarkable rise in the total number of contributions from non-Western scholars to the Regionalism literature in the last decade suggests that unlike the theory generating mainstream studies Regionalism studies have become dominated by non-European/non-Western contexts.
Topic:: International Relations, International Relations Theory, Regionalism, and Bibliometric Analysis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. Methodological Nationalism in International Relations: A Quantitative Assessment of Academia in Turkey (2015-2019)

Author:: Mustafa Onur Tetik
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article seeks to expand the discussion on Methodological Nationalism (MN)within the discipline of International Relations (IR), to contribute to MN literature from the perspective of IR studies and to evaluate the prevalence of MN in the field by the quantification of selected works. To achieve these goals, the article, firstly, recapitulates the general MN literature and critically evaluates this discussion in IR. Later, it identifies the forms of MN as they appear in IR with two faces: Level of analysis (nation-as-arena) and unit of analysis (nation-as-actor). Secondly, the article proposes a method to assess the prevalence of MN through quantification. Finally, the article applies its method to IR works to address the question of how widespread MN is in academia in Turkey. The findings demonstrate the proportional pervasiveness of MN within the IR community of Turkey, which is part of the “periphery” in the discipline. The findings also let us draw some hypothetical conclusions.
Topic:: International Relations, Nationalism, Quantitative, Academia, and Methodology
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

14. The Global Division of Labor in a Not So Global Discipline

Author:: Wiebke Wemheuer-Vogelaar, Peter Marcus Kristensen, and Mathis Lohaus
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Several studies have pointed to an unproductive ‘division of labor’ in the International Relations discipline (IR), notably its publication patterns, in which scholars based in a ‘core’ publish theory-building work while scholars based in a ‘periphery’ publish mainly empirical, area-oriented, or theory-testing work. The latter would thus mainly act as ‘local informants’ feeding empirical material on ‘their own’ country or region into the theorizing efforts of the ‘core’. We investigate this argument empirically using the dataset compiled by the Global Pathways (GP) project that studies the content in both ‘core’- and ‘periphery’-based and edited journals. Overall, our findings corroborate the argument about a core-periphery division of labor. Our main findings are threefold: (1) In terms of theory, we find that ‘core’ journals publish a larger proportion of theory-developing (and statistical) work and a lower proportion of analytical case studies and descriptive work than do ‘periphery’ journals. Scholars based in the ‘periphery’ are rarely published in these more theoretical ‘core’ journals (accounting for just 5.5% of articles in the journals studied here), but the published articles tend to apply theory. The main division of labor is thus not playing out within ‘core’ journals, but across the ‘core’ and ‘periphery’ worlds of publishing. In the ‘periphery’ journals, we actually find that scholars tend to publish a significant proportion of work using theory. (2) In terms of regional focus, we find that all journals and authors tend to have an empirical ‘home bias’, i.e. focus their empirical work on the region in which they are based, but that this is stronger for ‘periphery’-based journals and authors. This provides some confirmation of an unproductive division of labor where ‘core’ authors publish works about all regions of the globe, while 'periphery' authors have a stronger regional orientation. (3) Finally, we find evidence that some journals and authors – particularly those based in Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia – tend to be more policy-oriented, but we find no conclusive evidence of a core-periphery gap in this context.
Topic:: International Relations, International Relations Theory, Periphery, and Epistemic Hierarchies
Political Geography:: Global South

15. Environmental Protection and Climate Change Budgets of Metropolitan Municipalities: An Assessment For 2021

Author:: Public Expenditures Monitoring Platform
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: It is argued that cities can fulfill significant functions in the fight against global warming and climate crisis, and it is stated that for this reason, they can play a pioneering role in both reducing greenhouse gases and adapting to the changing climate. Approximately 600 cities in Europe and 9,400 cities around the world have begun to implement mitigation and adaptation measures against climate change at different levels. It is known that big cities, including many metropolitan municipalities from Turkey, cooperate at an international level for the purpose of mitigation and adaptation. The primary aim of this study is to classify1 the environmental protection and climate change (EPCC) goals stated in 2021 performance programs of 14 metropolitan municipalities (MM) and their affiliates (i.e. AF, water and sewerage administrations and transportation departments) with the highest expenditure under the goals of mitigation, adaptation, waste and other environmental goals, and to examine the budgets allocated to these goals. Also, in this review, the pros and cons of the budgets allocated for the mitigation, adaptation and waste related goals of 14 metropolitan municipalities will be evaluated together, and concrete policy recommendations will be developed as to the areas where the allocated budgets should be increased/decreased.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Budget, and Cities
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

16. The Geopolitical Consequences of COVID-19: Assessing Hawkish Mass Opinion in China

Author:: Joshua Byun, D. G. Kim, and Sichen Li
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: JOSHUA BYUN, D.G. KIM, and SICHEN LI examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Chinese public’s foreign policy attitudes. Drawing on original surveys fielded in China during the first six months of the global pandemic, they find that ordinary Chinese citizens are optimistic about China’s future global position, and that this optimism corresponds with the widespread perception that the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating China’s rise relative to the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Geopolitics, Survey, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

17. After Trump: Enemies, Partisans, and Recovery

Author:: Christopher J. Fettweis
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: CHRISTOPHER J. FETTWEIS discusses what political polarization in the United States has in common with the relationship between the Cold War superpowers. He argues that in both cases the “enemy image” warps perception of the other side and prevents meaningful reconciliation. Applying insight from international relations to U.S. domestic politics, he discusses the pernicious effects of the enemy image and how to overcome it.
Topic:: International Relations, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

18. Regional security and alliances in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific: implications for European security

Author:: Bastain Giegerich, Emile Hokayem, and Sharinee Jagtiani
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Regional security dynamics and the constructs to manage them are in flux around the world. Governments are attempting to address a multitude of simultaneous security challenges; determine the depth and scope of achievable and desirable security autonomy versus the unavoidable interdependencies with friends and opponents alike; and maintain a focus on their specific regional hotspots, whilst also positioning themselves for the era of systemic competition between an assertive China and the United States. This research paper analyses the challenges and implications of regional security dynamics in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific for European security to inform discussions in NATO and the EU on their respective global role and help decide on an achievable level of ambition for dealing with partners and challengers. Against this background, both the European Union and NATO are revising their strategic guidance to produce in 2022 – in the case of the EU – the so-called Strategic Compass, a document to give further shape and substance to the Union’s international security role, and – in the case of NATO – a new Strategic Concept to replace an earlier version developed in 2010. Aspects of international order, geopolitics and regional stability will inform these documents as both organisations will need to tackle their respective global role and decide on an achievable level of ambition for dealing with partners and challengers. NATO’s 2021 Brussels Summit Communiqué suggested that NATO would work to improve its ‘ability to contribute to preserve and shape the rules-based international order in areas that are important to Allied security… [and] increase… dialogue and practical cooperation with existing partners’. In addition, NATO heads of state and government decided to ‘strengthen NATO’s ability to provide training and capacity building support to partners’. The draft Strategic Compass document debated by EU ministers in November 2021 stated that the EU would ‘bolster partnerships where they are mutually beneficial and serve EU values and interests, particularly when there is a shared commitment to an integrated approach to crises and capacity building’, and proposed a range of multilateral, regional and bilateral initiatives to deepen and strengthen partnership formats.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East and Indo-Pacific

19. Assessing military cyber maturity: strategy, institutions and capability

Author:: Greg Austin and Jason Blessing
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Few governments have reached an enduring consensus on just how quickly and how deeply reforms to their military cyber forces must be made. While consensus points have been reached, these are usually tested within a short period of time by international circumstances and technological trends. The main dilemma is whether military cyber strategies and capabilities need more than routine development as just one more element of military power, or whether they warrant radical development pathways and a higher priority than others. One of the most profound influences on the evolution of a country’s military cyber forces and strategies is politics. This paper offers insights into how the governance and organisational factors of domestic politics facilitate or inhibit the dissemination of cyber concepts and capabilities throughout military forces beyond the main signals or cyber intelligence agency. There are at least three reasons to analyse military cyber maturity. The countries currently pursuing such capabilities are not satisfied with the development levels in policy and strategy they have so far reached. There is increasing potential for crippling cyber attacks on key elements of military capability or supporting infrastructure. And no country has yet succeeded in the broad dissemination of cyber capabilities through its armed forces in ways that leading military planners would like. Few governments have reached an enduring consensus on just how quickly and how deeply reforms in the armed forces must be made to satisfy national security needs. While consensus points have been reached, these are usually tested within a short period of time by inter-national circumstances and technological trends. The main dilemma is whether military cyber strategies and capabilities need more than routine development as just one more element of military power, akin to artillery or submarines; or whether they are sufficiently transformative of military power to warrant radical development pathways and a higher priority than others. This paper provides an impact matrix which can be used by governments, their armed forces and research analysts to understand the ways in which military cyber reforms can be facilitated or inhibited by governance and organisational processes.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, and Digitization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

20. Military capabilities in Europe: a framework for assessing the qualitative dimension

Author:: Bastain Giegerich and James Hackett
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: There is renewed focus in Europe on deterring and defending against state-level aggression. However, after decades of mainly crisis-management operations abroad, questions are being asked about the capability of European armed forces to achieve these tasks. Within the context of a deteriorating security environment, limited resources and a need for governments to better explain the benefits of defence, this report examines factors important in assessing military capability. There is particular focus on six input areas that are central to assessing the qualitative dimension of capability. The report includes contributions from seven specialists from across Europe, offering perspectives on these lines of enquiry and their relative importance to European states’ military capability now and in the future.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, State Building, and Resource Management
Political Geography:: Europe

21. Military ambitions and competition in space: the role of alliances

Author:: Greg Austin, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, and Tim Wright
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Emerging trends in space ambitions and capabilities of major state actors have given renewed urgency to efforts by NATO and other coalitions to build stronger alliance relations to secure shared interests in space. This report reviews the military ambitions, operations and capabilities of leading and aspiring space powers in order to assess their likely impact on alliances, partnerships or other national-security coalitions. China wants to overtake Russia as a space power by 2035 and become at least a co-equal with the United States by 2045. For its part, Russia is determined to maintain its standing as a space power. Both are testing the boundaries of the existing order in space through various actions, including weapons testing, and both are keen to demonstrate that they now have the capabilities to attack adversary space assets. Partly in response to this, in 2020 the US declared its intention to radically reshape the operating environment of space to better meet its interests, while its allies and partners have announced new space ambitions as well. India and Japan are setting new strategic goals for space policy in response to China’s threatening behaviour. France is positioning itself to climb higher up the ladder of military space power, while the United Kingdom and Germany have set new aspirations for economic gain and further influence on the diplomatic aspects of space. In this environment, military alliances have become more prominent in shaping space policy. The US has stepped up its engagement with other governments, either through existing alliances or new partnerships, to secure its interests. China and Russia, which have few allies of relevance, except perhaps each other, are concentrating on constraining the effectiveness of the United States’ alliances. The three space powers harbour renewed fears of technological surprise by their rivals, and this makes sharing research on space warfare among allies more important than ever. For example, testing of the most visible space weapons, direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles, is escalating – and this is now only one of more than 20 forms of attack on space assets being tested or already in place. But there remain questions about how to achieve scale and military effect using all these methods for wartime operations, including kinetic ASAT weapons: would China or Russia be able to launch successful attacks against the entire military satellite fleet of the US (all 173 units) in the opening stages of a war? Assuming they could not, what proportion of the fleet would have to be disabled for the attack to have a positive military or strategic effect for the attacker?
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Space, Strategic Competition, and Territory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. Green Defence: the defence and military implications of climate change for Europe

Author:: Ben Barry and Shiloh Fetzek
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Climate change is a national security threat to Europe. It is an accelerator of conflict and requires European forces to adapt accordingly. Concurrently, armed forces can help mitigate climate change by reducing their greenhouse-gas emissions. For states that plan to reduce carbon emissions, decarbonisation of armed forces without disarming will be a challenge. This new report assesses not only the implications for European armed forces of operating in climate changed worlds, but also the opportunities for reducing carbon footprint from new technologies. It assesses the challenges of implementing the necessary changes to military operations, training and capability and identifies success factors for this essential transformation.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: Europe

23. Internal Control in Intelligence Services

Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: First, a lack of effective internal control prevents external oversight bodies, such as parliamentary committees, from fulfilling their role effectively. Intelligence service managers play a crucial role in facilitating scrutiny by oversight bodies not only by ensuring that major infractions are reported to the appropriate authority, but also by creating an environment that encourages cooperation with oversight bodies. Second, while transparency is essential to maintaining democratic control of government, intelligence services require a significant degree of secrecy to be effective. Consequently, intelligence services are subject to highly restricted oversight, unlike other public institutions. Effective internal control is therefore essential to rectify this inherent (and unavoidable) imbalance by ensuring that the day-to-day work of intelligence services is carried out in accordance with the law and with respect for human rights. Third, to avoid undue influence and ensure independent, objective analysis, intelligence services must retain a degree of autonomy from the executive. Executive control over intelligence services is therefore sometimes less pronounced, meaning that effective internal control is vital to ensuring intelligence services act within the rule of law. For the above reasons, intelligence services should be subject to both effective oversight and internal control. This Thematic Brief addresses the latter by examining internal control systems used in Euro-Atlantic countries.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. Tunisian society finds itself stuck in silence and limbo post-July 25

Author:: Zied Boussen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: On 25 July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced a state of emergency for the country, along with drastic measures against what he considered to be a degradation of the State. Through an in-depth analysis of the current situation, this paper explores a so-far silent civil society and examines the political and social dynamics that will lead to a chasm between these actors and the public they are expected to mobilize.
Topic:: Civil Society, Social Movement, Political Activism, and Reform
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

25. Youth, Peace, and Security in Iraq: Operationalizing Youth Peacebuilding Priorities in Practice

Author:: Arab Reform Initiative
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In December 2020, the Government of Iraq, under the auspices of the Ministry of Youth and Sports, together with UNFPA and the Folke Bernadotte Academy (Swedish Agency for Peace, Security and Development), formally launched the National Coalition on Youth, Peace, and Security (YPS) in Iraq. As part of the government’s commitment to fulfilling the vision of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2250 (UNSCR 2250) and its subsequent resolutions 2419 and 2535, the Coalition seeks to act as a bridge linking grassroots youth peace activists and community leaders with formal decision-making circles in Iraq. The Coalition advocates for the implementation of the YPS agenda through policies and programs, facilitates the exchange of experiences, knowledge, and information amongst Coalition members and YPS actors, and supports the empowerment of youth to meaningfully participate and take leading roles in peace-building processes. The success of this Coalition is of prime importance at this critical juncture in Iraq’s history. In the aftermath of ISIS’ defeat, the wave of popular mobilization in the central and southern provinces largely led by youth, and the recent parliamentary elections in October 2021, Iraq is in an important phase of reconstruction. The country’s challenges are numerous and include maintaining stability and securing the sovereignty of the State, reinforcing pro-democracy forces and the rule of law, improving the economy and provision of services, and ensuring that redistribution meets citizens’ demands for economic, political, and social justice. More importantly, there exist important cohorts among young women and men in Iraq that are keen to participate in these various processes of reconstruction and to leave conflicts and disputes behind. Youth peace activists, youth-led grassroots initiatives and community leaders have already been conducting myriad actions on the ground to contribute to rebuilding the Iraqi society and many are of the opinion that this is one of the main paths to sustainable peace. The YPS agenda can be used as a common framework for dialogue and partnerships between youth and decision-makers. Moreover, including youth in decision-making processes can render policies not only better adapted to the needs and aspirations of citizens, but can also help increase the legitimacy of the process itself and ensure sustainability. Fulfilling the YPS agenda and creating successful mechanisms for Iraqi youth’s inclusion and incorporation in building, sustaining, and taking ownership of peace and development processes is thus essential to the reconstruction of the Iraqi nation-State and its prosperity and stability going forward. Yet, in order to ensure that youth’s participation is meaningful, it is essential to take as the point of departure youth’s own priorities for peace and security in practice, and what youth-owned political participation looks like on the ground. In other words, operationalizing the YPS agenda should aim to operationalize into practice the priorities that young women and men themselves set, with the support of decision-makers and YPS actors. On 7 December 2021, the Arab Reform Initiative and the Folke Bernadotte Academy organized a virtual closed policy dialogue, held under Chatham House Rule, bringing together governmental actors, youth activists (members of the YPS Coalition), researchers, policy makers, and advisors to collectively reflect on what meaningful youth inclusion in peace and development in Iraq looks like. This discussion included exploring what “peace,” “security,” and “participation” actually mean to Iraqi youth in theory and practice and considering examples of youth participation in peacebuilding on the ground and what good practices can be derived from them. The discussion also drew insights from good practices in other contexts in the region, and assessed the types of policies, approaches, and programs that can support Iraqi youth’s participation on both formal and informal levels. In doing so, this policy dialogue contributed to defining the various means and methods to operationalize a youth-owned YPS agenda in Iraq.
Topic:: Security, Youth, Peace, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

26. Why Tunisia’s parliamentary electoral formula needs to be changed

Author:: Alexander Martin and John Carey
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In light of the current political situation in Tunisia, this paper suggests that to avoid producing fragmented parliaments, the Tunisian electoral law should be amended and the Hare Quota-Largest Remainders (HQLR) formula should be replaced. A switch to either the D’Hondt or St.Lague divisors formulas would produce clearer winners and losers and foster accountability while preserving the proportional representation (PR) system.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Legislation, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

27. Marine pollution: A growing concern for the southern suburb of Tunis

Author:: Khouloud Ayari
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The National Sanitation Utility (ONAS) organized a public consultation two months after a human chain demonstration took place on 12 September along the beaches of the southern suburb of Tunis. This article examines the timeline of events that took place to warn against sea degradation from 2013 until September 2021. It also provides feedback on the November 2021 public consultation, and offers insight into the current environmental issues at hand in both local and national contexts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Maritime, and Pollution
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

28. From inside and outside: Palestinian youth reshaping old electoral systems

Author:: Andrew Findell-Aghnatios and Tala Majzoub
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In preparation for the first national elections in over 10 years, large numbers of Palestinian youth mobilized both inside and outside traditional political structures to voice their demands. This paper examines the modalities of their mobilization, their approaches to political reform, and the barriers that impede their meaningful participation in local politics. It concludes with recommendations on how to ensure greater integration of youth in the Palestinian political sphere.
Topic:: Social Movement, Elections, Democracy, Youth, Participation, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

29. Tunisia: Youth take a stand for/against the president’s decisions and watch in limbo

Author:: Alessandra Bajec
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: After playing a key role in the 2011 revolution, most young Tunisians have grown fed up with politicians in their country as a result of successive political, economic and social failures that marred the democratic transition. Since the mass protests on 25 July 2021 that preceded President Saied’s power grab, a popular youth movement has reawakened to demand radical change. This paper looks at some of the diverging positions held by young Tunisians on the president’s actions, their hopes and concerns in the current phase of political turbulence.
Topic:: Social Movement, Youth, Participation, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

30. Libyan Youth in Limbo: Coming of Age in Conflict

Author:: Asma Khalifa
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: This study seeks to understand how the transition to adulthood for Libyan youth has been impacted by the context of the past 10 years in conflict. Through in-depth qualitative research carried out with 75 Libyan youth in 2020-2021, the study explores decision-making processes and the types of opportunities and constraints that youth face in terms of education and livelihood, the impact of war on their political beliefs and participation, their understandings of peace and security, and the ways in which war has changed gender norms and relations. The study finds that 2014 represents the pivotal year in terms of their personal trajectories, their critical understandings of dynamics of war and peace, and their own personal sense of wellbeing and hope for the future. With regards to livelihood and employment paths, youth trajectories reveal a complicated dynamic, where opportunities come at a price or with consequences that are counterproductive. On one hand, the conflict in Libya has dismantled old repressive structures, and in the absence of that, there are chances of more independent and ingenious efforts to improve livelihoods. For nearly all participants, for example, the preferred choice of study actually expanded as a result of the opening of society and the political sphere in 2011. Likewise, dynamics of necessity since 2011 have seen the emergence of a new culture for entrepreneurship that is innovative and resilient. Yet at the same time, the destruction of war means that education pathways have been cut short and that the infrastructure needed to make entrepreneurship sustainable for young people, such as a strong financial system and operating legal framework, does not exist. In regards to political beliefs and participation, many youth attest that the 2011 uprising served as a political awakening of sorts, creating new interest in politics and political processes. However, the descent into war has had an almost universally negative impact on their view towards politics and politicians. Deep distrust in politics and a widespread belief in the systemic depths of corruption translates to pervasive apathy for formal political processes and participation. Yet at the same time, Libyan youth who have come into adulthood in a context of conflict have nuanced views regarding how peace can be constructed and the responsibilities required for this peacebuilding process at different levels. This includes the necessity of rehabilitation and the promotion of tolerance, respect for differences, and values of coexistence – all of which must be carried out both by the State, but also critically by communities themselves. For peace to truly exist, though, youth insist on the necessity for justice as a prerequisite. With regards to social relations and gender norms, the conflict has had a dualistic impact on both challenging and reinforcing traditional tropes of masculinity and femininity. Because of extreme loss of economic wellbeing, women youth have found themselves in new jobs, with new responsibilities, and in new public spaces that sometimes break away from traditional gender norms. Yet at the same time, the conflict has also reinforced norms regarding masculinity and the role of men in the family and society. As a result, while youth participating in this study do acknowledge profound shifts in the gender roles and gender relations, the extent to which this is viewed as something positive to be maintained in the post-conflict period is much less certain. Overall, the study finds that youth, facing important psychological trauma and in a perpetual state of uncertainty and instability, have little hope for the future and little ability to plan for their lives. The most reliable strategy they have adopted is that of flexibility and adaptability, with most viewing life outside of Libya as the only real option for the future. In other words, young people are seeking to build their lives elsewhere. Their lack of trust in politics and in the ability that they have to effect change means that core issues related to the resolving conflict and building peace, such as economic and political reform, will continue to be a problem without the younger generation taking active part in contributing to rebuilding of the country. This new generation no longer has the mentality of relying only on the State, but believes instead on pursuing good educational and work opportunities that are more personally fulfilling. They are also acutely aware of the extremely difficult environment in which they try to study or work in, as well as the lack of a broader context that can support them. For youth in Libya today, the pervasive feeling is that they are not safe and cannot set deep roots for fear everything will collapse.
Topic:: Security, Education, Youth, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

31. Lessons from the T20: Five Priorities for Italian Infrastructure Investment

Author:: Fulvio Bersanetti, Nicola Bilotta, Raffaele Della Croce, Valeria Lauria, and Nicolò Russo Perez
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As states and societies continue to struggle with the pandemic, a fundamental element of the post-Covid recovery will be the capacity to revive both public and private investments in infrastructure, thereby boosting growth and employment. Differently than previous crises, reorienting infrastructure investment to respond to the new social and environmental needs will also be needed, starting with health and poverty reduction, as well as climate change and the digitalisation drive. Italy is no exception. Under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) promoted by the European Union, Italy will receive 191 billion euro in which infrastructure investments will play a fundamental role. To unlock its full economic potential and pursue a successful post-Covid recovery, Italy should embrace five key priorities for infrastructure investment.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Investment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

32. Biden’s Foreign Policy Casts a Long Shadow

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Upon taking office as US president, Joseph R. Biden vowed he would bring the United States back to the centre of the international stage after the erratic course followed by Donald Trump. One year later, it can hardly be said that he has been successful.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

33. A Healthier and More Sustainable Global Food System: What is at Stake for the EU?

Author:: Marta Antonelli
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Fixing the global food system is arguably the most powerful leverage to nurture the world’s population while keeping human activity within the biophysical limits of the planet. Yet, food systems are today a threat to both human and planetary health, and thus require bold and forward-looking strategies as well as multi-stakeholder collaboration.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Health, Politics, Natural Resources, European Union, Food Security, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Europe

34. The Return of US Leadership in Europe: Biden and the Russia Crisis

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In dealing with Russia’s aggressive policies towards Ukraine, US President Joe Biden has put up a powerful display of competent crisis management. While it may not be enough to stop President Vladimir Putin from escalating, Biden’s policy has nonetheless re-affirmed US leadership in Europe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Vladimir Putin, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Caucasus, Balkans, and United States of America

35. A Digital Euro in Search of an Identity

Author:: Franco Passacantando
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The recent proliferation of crypto assets and other digital currencies is rapidly transforming the financial industry and the very concept of money. In response to these developments, many central banks are considering the possibility of introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), to be used as an alternative to cash. These trends have led to a lively debate on the role that a new sovereign digital currency could play in the monetary system. Some claim that the creation of a CBDC looks like a solution in search of problem because the private sector is already responding to the needs of faster and cheaper payment services.[1] The opposite view is that, if nothing is done, central banks could eventually lose the capacity to conduct monetary policy, to preserve financial stability and to ensure the proper functioning of the payment system. While the European Central Bank (ECB) has yet to make a final decision, in July 2021 it announced the start of a two-year “investigation phase” on the possible introduction of a euro CBDC, in which the views of prospective users and of those who will distribute the new currency will be sought.
Topic:: European Union, Finance, Currency, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

36. Inequalities and Local Infrastructure: The Challenges of Post-Covid Recovery Investments

Author:: Filippo Barbera
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Rather than being mere “productive environments”, localities embedded in infrastructure are distinctive living places in which communities of people live and establish a greater part of their daily social relationships. As a result, infrastructure represents the backbone of citizenship rights and strongly affect territorial inequalities. Infrastructure is chiefly understood in physical terms as reticulated systems of highways, pipes, wires or cables. This physical reductionism is by no means sufficient to encompass the multiple facets of the concept or to make sense of the many ways infrastructure affects socio-political inequalities. Knowledge infrastructure, for instance, may indicate robust networks of people, equipment and institutions that generate, share and maintain specific knowledge about the human and natural worlds. Infrastructure furthermore refers to the interplay between information technologies, transportation and other intermodal transport devices. All of these kinds of infrastructure affect inequalities in different ways.
Topic:: Political Economy, Politics, Infrastructure, Governance, European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe

37. Israeli Apartheid and the West’s Dwindling Moral Credibility

Author:: Andrea Dessì
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Amidst spiralling tensions on the European continent, East-West animosities have returned to dominate daily news cycles. Predictably, this has revived rhetoric on competing political systems and norms, giving rise to a flurry of reporting contrasting Western democracy’s support for the “rules-based international order” vs an informal “alliance of autocracies” led by Russia and China which embrace military might or economic and political blackmail in “a bid to make the world safe for dictatorship”, as recently opinionated the Washington Post.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, International Law, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, and Mediterranean

38. Europe’s Post-Cold War Order Is No More

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to recognise the independence of the self-styled separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas may very well be the beginning of the end of Ukraine as an independent nation. For Ukraine, a nation of almost 44 million people, catastrophe looms large on the horizon. For Europe, these events are the harbinger of the end of an era. Europe’s post-Cold War order is no more.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Caucasus, Balkans, and United States of America

39. A G7/G20 Pact for Sustainable Urbanisation? Building on the Positive Legacy of Italy’s G20 Presidency

Author:: Nicholas J. A. Buchoud, Michael Keith, Susan Parnell, and Martin van der Pütten
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The G20 as we know it emerged from the 2008 global financial crisis. What is rarely acknowledged, however, is that this grouping of the world’s twenty largest economies emerged at a time when the world was fast becoming more “urban” than “rural”. The impact of urbanisation on the world economy has received scant attention in global decision-making arenas because the post-2008 stabilisation of the global financial system came with significant costs. In particular, the financial crisis had important recentralising effects. The OECD, for instance, has regularly underlined the lasting impact of the financial crisis on sub-national investment capabilities.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Infrastructure, Governance, Urbanization, G20, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

40. Putin’s Use and Abuse of History: Back to the 19th Century?

Author:: Leo Goretti
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: “Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space.” This is how Putin introduced the “decisions being made” in his 55-minute address to the nation on 21 February 2022, which paved the way for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Several commentators noted how Putin’s speech was replete with historical references: as historian Benjamin Nathans pointed out, Vladimir Putin seems to be “quite obsessed with history. So part of our attention […] should be looking at how Putin is using history”. Indeed, almost one-quarter of Putin’s speech was devoted to a rather erratic and convoluted discussion of pre-1991 Russian and Soviet history, departing from the assumption that this was necessary “to explain the motives behind Russia’s actions and what we aim to achieve”.
Topic:: Nationalism, History, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, and Balkans

41. Developments in Kazakhstan 2022: Causes and Consequences

Author:: Yurii Poita
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: In January 2022, mass protests arose in Kazakhstan due to an increase in gas prices for cars, which instantly covered almost the entire country. From the initial demands of the demonstrators in Zhanaozen in the southwest of the country they quickly transformed into anti-government ones: the protesters demanded the resignation of the government, a change in the current political regime and the departure of the first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The willingness of the Kazakh authorities to make concessions and satisfy part of the demands did not stop the protests: they expanded significantly both quantitatively and geographically and in a short time the protest was marginalized and transformed into pogroms and looting, especially in the city of Almaty in southern Kazakhstan.
Topic:: Governance, Social Movement, Protests, and Repression
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and Asia

42. Quo Vadis, Belarus?

Author:: Zoran Meter
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: Year 2021 was one of the most turbulent for Belarus since its independence after the collapse of the USSR. In the West Belarus is sometimes called the “European North the global economic crisis in 2008 without too many problems and internal turmoil. Belarus has also successfully overcome problems with its neighbor the Russian Federation caused by Korea” and its longtime president Alexander Lukashenko, whom the West no longer recognizes, is dubbed “Europe’s Last Dictator.” Although this country is still to a large extent dug in its communist past, it has overcome disputes related to the content and dynamics of the implementation of the establishment of a Federal State between Belarus and Russia to which they previously committed.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, Leadership, Dictatorship, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Belarus

43. PRC Foreign and Military Policy, 1977-81: Shades of Mao, the Imprint of Deng

Author:: Frederick C. Teiwes and Warren Sun
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: This Working Paper is a draft chapter for a book on the poorly understood CCP elite politics of the early post-Mao period, tentatively entitled Hua Guofeng, Deng Xiaoping, and the Dismantling of Maoism. Conventional wisdom pictures the period up to the December 1978 Third Plenum as a struggle between Hua and Deng, reflecting neo-Maoist v. reformist tendencies, and won by Deng at the plenum. In fact, there was broad consensus between them, Hua was more proactive in key areas, and there is no evidence of anything approaching a power struggle. This paper, however, deals with an area where elements of accepted views of Deng hold up. In essence, Deng held both the foreign policy and particularly PLA portfolios, notably where they concerned the crucial relationships with the US, Soviet Union, Japan, and Vietnam. In external relations Deng was broadly regarded to have performed brilliantly, while Hua was thought a mere cypher. Overall, Hua was clearly secondary in external relations, but he took the bold step of initiating relations with revisionist Yugoslavia, made the most telling proposal in the high-level negotiations with the US, and deeply impressed dominant European leaders Margaret Thatcher and Helmut Schmidt. Deng’s foreign policy outlook was deeply influenced by Mao, he could push Mao’s “horizontal line” concept to counterproductive extremes, almost losing the Sino-Japanese Peace Treaty, and rather than brilliantly negotiating US normalization, the Chinese side was slow to grasp the outcome that was always there. Most significant, and revealing of the underlying dynamic of CCP politics, was the war against Vietnam. This was truly Deng’s war, opposed by not only Hua, but also by a broad array of senior civilian and PLA officials, including surviving marshals. This was essentially the first time since his return to work in 1977, in contrast to persuading his colleagues through intense effort, that Deng simply asserted his authority. Neither here or elsewhere, was argument decisive as it had generally been under Hua’s leadership to that point. What was decisive was Deng’s enormous prestige as the most outstanding of the surviving “old revolutionaries” who achieved the success of 1949. It was the same factor that allowed Deng’s quiet coup against Hua at the turn of 1979-80, with no significant resistance from Hua or anyone else, and with no explanation being made in any official forum until well after the fact.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Normalization
Political Geography:: China and Asia

44. Australia’s Response to the China Threat: The Case for Engagement

Author:: David S. G. Goodman
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: The dominance of the China Threat discourse in Australia’s public affairs suggests poor prospects for any continued Australia-China relations, let alone positive interactions of mutual benefit. An exploration of alternative ways to approach Australia’s relationship with China may though prove not only more constructive but also better future-proofed. The first step is to recognize that while China certainly poses challenges to Australia the perception of threat is more relevant to the USA. The second is the recognition of differences and the development of ways to mediate those differences. And the third is to build on the complementarities for the benefit of both Australia and China, not just through economic but also through social interactions. As Europe discovered in the 1950s, the development of mutual understanding of other peoples, their cultures, and their social and economic systems is a precursor not simply to respect and the avoidance of unwarranted prejudice, but to cooperation for a wider public good.
Topic:: Security, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia

45. Digitalization of Special Economic Zones in China

Author:: Jie (Jeanne) Huang
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: Special Economic Zones (SEZ) have become the forefront in China to test legal and technological reforms for digital trade. This chapter explores three cutting-edge case studies in China’s SEZs: the Beijing blockchain-based Single Window deposit box; newly established big data exchanges in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai SEZs; and pilot projects in financial, medical care and automobile industries to flow data across the border in the Shanghai SEZ. It scrutinizes China's experiments in the context of its applications to join CPTPP and DEPA. It argues that the development of Chinese domestic law for digital trade is shifting away from the traditional paradigm that uses international commitments to push domestic reform or make domestic law according to international law. The development of Chinese domestic law for digital trade relies much more on China’s domestic needs than what FTAs negotiations require. FTAs are increasingly becoming a tool for China to shape international law rather than a benchmark for legislating domestic Chinese law.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: China and Asia

46. El control social en Colombia: Un balance sobre las veedurías ciudadanas

Author:: Mariana Cepeda Villarreal and Luis Gilberto Murillo Urrutia
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: En Colombia existen diferentes modalidades institucionales para hacer control social dentro de las cuales se encuentran las veedurías ciudadanas, reglamentadas a través de la Ley 805 de 2003. Si bien las veedurías ciudadanas son un mecanismo de participación ampliamente conocido, y pese a haber sido reglamentado hace casi dos décadas, existe poca información sobre las dinámicas de su funcionamiento, impactos alcanzados, y factores que llevan a su éxito. Este documento analiza los límites y potencialidades de las veedurías ciudadanas en Colombia como modalidad o mecanismo de control social, a partir de la revisión del marco institucional que promueve su desarrollo y formalización en el país. Para ilustrar estas dinámicas, también se presenta la experiencia de la Veeduría Tumaco Despierta, iniciativa ciudadana de control social formalmente constituida, cuyo objeto es hacer seguimiento a la implementación del proyecto de agua y saneamiento básico bajo el crédito IBRD 86490 (PID 156239) del Banco Mundial.
Topic:: Accountability, Participation, Oversight, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

47. Accountability Keywords

Author:: Jonathan Fox
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: ‘What counts’ as accountability, and who decides? Accountability is often treated as a magic bullet, an all-purpose solution to a very wide range of problems—from corrupt politicians or the quality of public service provision to persistent injustice and impunity. The concept has become shorthand to refer to diverse efforts to address problems with the exercise of power. In practice, the accountability idea is malleable, ambiguous — and contested. This working paper unpacks diverse understandings of accountability ideas, using the ‘keywords’ approach. This tradition takes everyday big ideas whose meanings are often taken for granted and makes their subtexts explicit. The proposition here is that ambiguous or contested language can either constrain or enable possible strategies for promoting accountability. After all, different potential coalition partners may use the same term with different meanings—or may use different terms to communicate the same idea. Indeed, the concept’s fundamental ambiguity is a major reason why it can be difficult to communicate ideas about accountability across disciplines, cultures, and languages. The goal here is to inform efforts to find common ground between diverse potential constituencies for accountable governance. This analysis is informed by dialogue with advocates and reformers from many countries and sectors, many of whom share their ideas in blogposts on the Accountability Keywords website (see also #AccountabilityKeyword on social media). Both the working paper and blogposts reflect on accountability-related words and sayings that resonate with popular cultures, to get a better handle on what sticks. The format of the working paper is nonlinear, designed so that readers can go right to the keywords that spark their interest: The introduction maps the landscape of accountability keywords. Section 2 addresses what counts as accountability? Section 3 identifies big concepts that overlap with accountability but are not synonyms- such as good governance, democracy, responsiveness and responsibility. Section 4 shows the relevance of accountability adjectives by spelling out different ways in which the idea is understood. Section 5 unpacks widely used, emblematic keywords in the field. Section 6 considers more specialized keywords, focusing on examples that serve as shorthand for big ideas within specific communities of practice. Section 7 brings together a range of widely-used accountability sayings, from the ancient to the recently-invented—illustrating the enduring and diverse nature of accountability claims. Section 8 makes a series of propositions for discussion.
Topic:: Corruption, Accountability, and Keywords
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. Does Station Name Matter?: Rent Seeking Behavior and Its Impact on Housing Prices

Author:: Hwiwon Seo and Minsik Choi
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of rent-seeking behavior for public goods on housing prices. To do so, we analyzed the case of renaming the Sinchoeon station to Jamsilsaenae station for the Seoul Metro Green line by applying the rent seeking theory and estimated the effect of the event on the housing prices of the affected neighborhood. The hedonic pricing model adopted by related studies does not produce unbiased estimates due to the endogeneity resulted from omitted variables including compounding macroeconomic variables. By developing a new dataset, we used the difference in differences regression method that produces more precise and unbiased estimates. Our results show that the housing prices affected by the renaming event increased by around 5% compared to those of non-affected neighborhood. Our analytical results can shed light on understanding related rent seeking behaviors for public goods provision.
Topic:: Economy, Macroeconomics, Housing, and Rent-seeking
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

49. KDP and PUK in Sadir’s Chess Game

Author:: Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Muqtada Al-Sadir, the Shiite Cleric Grandmaster, is playing to win; whatever the expense. In the build-up to the game, the Sunnis got their act together and seized the opportunity to become the main winners of the first round. However, the Kurds entered the fight on one leg, lost sight of the bigger picture and intensified their internal power rivalry. This has already proven costly for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), and if they keep on as they started, the second round will be even dearer. Fortunately, it is not too late to minimise their losses or even end up winning future rounds. To do this, they need to take into account the complex power dynamics within not just the Shiite component of Iraq (Shiite House), but also the Shiite ‘Universe’ inside and outside Iraq.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

50. Inclusion of Women in the FY22 NDAA (P.L. 117-81)

Author:: Hans Hogrefe, Sahana Dharmapuri, and Cassandra Zavislak
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: Congress is currently discussing the inclusion of women in the current NDAA. Read our brief summary of specific references to the inclusion of women in the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2022 (NDAA, P.L. 117-81). The NDAA emphasizes attention to sexual and gender based violence in the U.S. military and creates a pilot program to assess barriers to women’s participation in partner nation defense and security forces based on the WPS Act. The FY22 NDAA is making some important changes to the implementation of the Women, Peace and Security Act (P.L. 115-68): Requires Congressional briefing on the implementation status of the recommendations set forth in the report of the Independent Review Commission on Sexual Assault in the Military. Improves prosecution on how sexual harassment and assault within the U.S. military. Establishes WPS pilot program to support the implementation of the WPS Act of 2017. Requires a study of US Security Cooperation Programs focused on Afghanistan in accordance with the WPS Act of 2017 Requires DEI data collection Authorizes professional development
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Women, Sexual Violence, Inclusion, and WPS
Political Geography:: United States of America

51. Policy Papers by Women of Color: Decolonizing International Development

Author:: Tamara White, Aisha White, Gabrielle B. Gueye, Daniet Moges, and Eliza Gueye
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: This series explores a handful of scenarios where colonial legacies surface in international development and humanitarian aid work, from staffing and institution building to food aid and global tourism. Exploring these topics and seeking to deconstruct the systems and structures that impede success in development and humanitarian efforts is critically important in ensuring that we ultimately meet global goals and restore integrity to our sector. Many believe international development and humanitarian aid are irreconcilable and that this work is an extension of colonialism, but our constituency believes that there is hope in transforming the sector and shifting power to those who should rightfully own this work and reap the benefits of development.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Tourism, Culture, Neoliberalism, Decolonization, Institutions, COVID-19, and Food Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

52. The Persistence of QAnon in the Post-Trump Era: An Analysis of Who Believes the Conspiracies

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: The right-wing QAnon conspiracy movement emerged on the internet in late 2017. While followers of the QAnon movement claim a variety of different beliefs, the main threads of QAnon’s core theory are that a network of Satan-worshipping pedophiles control the government and media, and that a coming “storm” will sweep them out of power.[1] The QAnon movement centered former President Donald Trump as its key leader, and said he was secretly fighting to unmask the evildoers who controlled the political and economic systems of power. Perhaps the most visible role QAnon has played was in the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol, from which the “QAnon shaman” became an iconic image. Fortunately, the goal of keeping Trump as president despite his electoral defeat was not achieved. Even through Trump leaving office, major social media platforms banning QAnon activity, and the leader of the movement, called “Q,” disappearing from the internet, QAnon has continued to thrive on alternative platforms with a handful of influencers leading the group.[2] PRRI data also shows that the proportion of Americans who believe, or are at least open to believing, QAnon conspiracies held mostly steady throughout 2021.
Topic:: QAnon, Conspiracy Theory, Political Extremism, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: United States of America and North America

53. From Passive Owners to Planet Savers? Asset Managers, Carbon Majors and the Limits of Sustainable Finance

Author:: Joseph Baines and Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: This article examines the role of the Big Three asset management firms — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street — in corporate environmental governance. Specifically, it charts the Big Three’s relationships with the public–owned Carbon Majors: a small group of fossil fuels, cement and mining companies responsible for the bulk of industrial greenhouse gas emissions. It finds that the Big Three much more often than not oppose rather than support shareholder resolutions aimed at improving environmental governance. Notably, this is even the case with the Big Three’s environmental, social and governance funds. A more fine–gained analysis shows that the combined voting decisions of the Big Three are more likely to lead to the failure than to the success of environmental resolutions and that, whether they succeed or fail, these resolutions tend to be narrow in scope and piecemeal in nature. Based on these findings, the article raises serious doubts about the Big Three’s credentials as environmental stewards.
Topic:: Environment, Finance, Fossil Fuels, Sustainability, and Corporate Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

54. The European Banks’ Role in the Financial Crisis of 2007-8: A Critical Assessment

Author:: Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007, opinion has been divided over whether its root cause was credit arbitrage or safe asset demand. New research on the European banks' role in the crisis may finally help to resolve the issue. Far from being peripheral players in the crisis, European banks were deeply implicated in its causal origins as evidenced by their activities in the two US debt markets that were at the heart of the crisis: those for collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and for asset backed commercial paper (ABCP). These activities would seem to lend weight to the credit arbitrage story, a conclusion that has been reached by several authors. However, it is a conclusion only made possible by ignoring the connection between the federal funds rate and the rate of ABCP demand from the institutional money market mutual funds (MMMFs) in the pre-crisis era. This paper argues that when this connection is closely examined, it turns out that the evidence surrounding the European banks' role in the financial crisis gives greater weight to the safe asset demand explanation of the crisis.
Topic:: Markets, Financial Crisis, Banks, Debt Securities, Assets, and Federal Funds Rate
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

55. Financial eschatology and the libidinal economy of leverage

Author:: Amin Samman and Stefano Sgambati
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: Apocalyptic thinking has a long religious and political tradition, but what place does it occupy within the temporal universe of contemporary capitalism? In this essay, we use the figure of the eschaton to draw out the loaded and ambiguous character of the future as it emerges through the condition of indebtedness. This entails a departure from political economy accounts of capitalist futurity, which stress the structural logic of financial speculation, in favour of an existential account that begins instead with the cosmology of money and debt. We argue that finance capital’s fixation on the future has produced a very specific form of apocalyptic imagination, characteristic of financial society and built on a libidinal economy of leverage. Rather than offering an ecstatic end to the global process of financialization, financial eschatologies bind the contemporary subject to debt and indebtedness to the very end: an endless apocalypse, premised on the ends of finance itself.
Topic:: Debt, Finance, Money, Eschatology, Futurity, Leverage, and Libidinal Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

56. The evolving contribution of R&D, advertising and capital expenditures for US-listed firms’ growth in sales, 1979-2018: A quantile regression analysis

Author:: Joel Rabinovich
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: This article presents new insights on the evolving contribution of different types of investments to the growth in sales of US nonfinancial listed firms during the 1979-2018 period. By means of quantile regressions it is observed an increasing contribution over time of intangible investment vis-à-vis a decline in capital expenditure both for high-growth and slow-growth firms. However, the impact of different types of intangible investment differs depending on the kind of firm. Whereas research and development (R&D) has a positive contribution for high-growth firms, only advertising has a positive effect for their slow-growth peers.
Topic:: History, Investment, Research and Development, Firm Growth, Quantile Regression, and Intangibles
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

57. Taliban Victory Serves as a Model for Palestinian Terror Groups

Author:: Marta Furlan
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: World powers and Israel should refuse to recognize the Taliban regime. This would give hope to Middle Eastern terrorist groups like Hamas that they could also gain recognition under the right conditions. Upon returning to government, the Taliban have been implementing a system of civilian administration based on their Islamist ideological background. The consequences for women and minorities have been horrifying. The same can be said about Afghanistan’s economy, which can no longer provide for its starving population. The Taliban began house searches around Kabul recently, drawing criticism from Western diplomats about rights abuses. The Taliban claim that the operations are to find “kidnappers, professional thieves and crime groups,” however, seven residents told Reuters that the searches were spreading fear and appeared indiscriminate. In terms of security, the Afghan-Pakistani border and the Afghan-Iranian border have traditionally been porous, with illicit goods, illegal immigrants, and terrorists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State-Khorasan Province moving undetected from one country to another. Similarly, the borders shared by Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan with Afghanistan remain characterized by volatility, which exposes those countries to the risk of exportation of terrorism from Afghanistan. Though Afghanistan’s neighbors have engaged in efforts to increase border security by erecting fences, conducting anti-terrorism exercises in the border areas, and relocating troops to border areas, the potential security threats originating from Afghanistan remain a source of great concern for the region and beyond. Nevertheless, for Islamists across the border in Pakistan and elsewhere in the Muslim world, the Taliban’s victory – and ability to hold onto power in Afghanistan – serves as a model they seek to follow. This should cause worry for Israel due to the encouragement this provides to radical Islamist armed groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) that a return to the armed struggle is the only path to defeat Israel.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

58. Turkey’s struggling economy, regional isolation, behind latest charm offensive with Israel and other countries

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A clear Turkish rationale for better relations with Israel is to weaken the strategic partnership between Jerusalem, Greece, and Cyprus and get access to Israel’s natural gas.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

59. The EU is Reluctantly Getting Tougher with Putin

Author:: Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Europeans surely remember what happens when you let an autocrat get away with grabbing territories hoping that the last bite will be the last one
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

60. Understanding the Russia-Iran-Israel Triangle

Author:: Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: As Tehran invests efforts to improve relations with Russia, Israel will have to maintain a dialogue with Moscow to safeguard its military and diplomatic freedom of action.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

61. The Ukraine Standoff as a Harbinger of Broader Shifts in the Global Order

Author:: Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Global powers might find it more challenging to reach a consensus on the Middle East than before. This makes it more critical for Israel to get separate understandings or develop new partnerships both globally and regionally.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

62. A US failure in Ukraine Crisis could lead to a conflagration in Middle East, Asia

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: China could learn that US determination is melting away, and its threats can be ignored. An attack on Taiwan could follow.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

63. Turkey-Armenia Normalization: A Quest for Realism

Author:: Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Ironically, the American recognition of the Armenian genocide removed an obstacle for Armenia and Turkey to move forward.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, International Community, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Armenia

64. Houthi/Iranian attacks on UAE a response to losses on the Yemen battlefield

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Incensed by recent government gains in Yemen, the Iranians seek to intimidate the UAE into reversing course. At this juncture, it is therefore vital that both the US and Israel offer support for the UAE’s cause.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Yemen, North America, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE

65. Will US-Israel ties withstand possible strains due to the Iranian and Palestinian issues?

Author:: Eytan Gilboa
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Despite former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim to a 40-year friendship with President Joe Biden, the latter preferred the new government headed by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

66. US Policy Towards the Yemeni Conflict Must Change

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Re-designating the Houthi movement as a terrorist organization after the drone attack on the UAE is imperative. This, along with overt support for the UAE, would deliver a sharp message and likely have a beneficial effect on Iranian conduct in Vienna.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Yemen, North America, and United States of America

67. Could Biden construct a new world order through détente with Russia?

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Such a scenario would give the US a leg up against China’s totalitarianism and expansionist aims, and bridge the age-old schism with Russia
Topic:: Diplomacy, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

68. Japan’s Expanded Regional Security Role: The Challenge of China

Author:: Eyal Ben-Ari
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Japan’s steady build-up of its substantial military power is based on a realistic view of meeting current security challenges, especially those presented by China.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

69. PA head Mahmoud Abbas reveals his anti-peace stance in attack against Israeli Arab politician

Author:: Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It took Mansour Abbas, the head of the southern branch of the Islamic Movement’s United Arab List party(Ra’am), to show that Mahmoud Abbas has no ideological resolve or intentions to recognize the Jewish state and make genuine peace with it.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Governance, Leadership, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

70. Safeguarding Critical Infrastructure in Kosovo

Author:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Critical infrastructure is a segment which is related to several other areas of security and defense, namely some strategic and legal documents which are in force as well as some new initiatives. This analysis provided a detailed overview of the protection of critical infrastructure in the Republic of Kosovo, becoming the first document published in this field. While the MIA has done a very good job in drafting the law on critical infrastructure, putting Kosovo one step ahead of other Western Balkan countries, the law remains unimplementable for almost 2 years following the date of its entry into force. Initially, strategic documents that are in the process of being drafted such as the draft National Security Strategy, the draft Defense Strategy, the draft Counter-Terrorism Strategy and the draft Cyber Security Strategy should include the protection of critical infrastructure by ensuring coordination of actions and by avoiding duplication or overlap of actions. The Strategic Planning Office within the Office of the Prime Minister should coordinate this process in cooperation with the relevant ministries. On the other hand, the draft law on cyber security should pay attention to the drafting of legal provisions which may cause overlap with the law on infrastructure, while the initiative for drafting the law on Security Measures for Networks and Information Systems needs to be reviewed. Moreover, the draft law on private security services should be finalized as soon as possible.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

71. Citizens perceptions of integrity of public institutions in Kosovo

Author:: Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The Kosovo Security Forces, the Kosovo Police, the President of Kosovo and the Municipalities are the most trusted public institutions in Kosovo, with over 50 percent of respondents declaring that they trust or completely trust these institutions. This is followed by the Kosovo Customs and the Kosovo Intelligence Agency with 45 percent of respondents sharing such an opinion. On the other hand, less than 40 percent of the respondents declared that they trust or completely trust Courts, Prosecution, Kosovo Correctional Services, the Government of Kosovo and the Kosovo Assembly. The results of the report show that citizens of Kosovo find the security institutions more reliable with a higher level of trust towards them, compared to other public institutions in Kosovo, such as the justice institutions which citizens perceive less trustworthy and with weak integrity. The citizen confidence in the institutions of the Courts and the Prosecution in Kosovo has been consistently in decline, and this is concerning. Citizens have higher confidence in the public institutions from the central level, especially when compared to the previous year (2020), however, the skepticism towards these institutions generally prevails.
Topic:: Security, Public Opinion, Survey, and Public Institutions
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

72. Localising the SDGs in India: The Role of Government and Private Training Institutes

Author:: Sreerupa Sengupta and Avik Sinha
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) present a new and coherent way of thinking about diverse facets of development. Implicit in the framework of the SDGs is that the goals are interconnected and interdependent. To translate such critical ideas into reality, countries need new skills, perspectives and approaches to the implementation of policies and programmes. Capacity-building, in particular for the public sector, is therefore at the core of achieving the 2030 Agenda. Although all countries have designed their respective capacity-building strategies and undertaken various interventions for knowledge dissemination among government officials and other stakeholders on the SDGs, there are wide variations between countries regarding the progress on capacity-building initiatives. In many developing countries, the heterogeneity of the political, societal and economic structures poses one of the biggest challenges to capacity-building for the localisation of the SDGs. This discussion paper explores and maps the SDG training landscape for government officials in India. As a particularly heterogeneous country in political, economic and cultural terms, India is an interesting example to explore the challenges of capacity-building in many developing countries towards the achievement of the SDGs. Against this background, the study aims to achieve the following: a) to understand the role of government and private actors in building the capacity of government officials to respond to the 2030 Agenda b) to understand the resources required for capacity-building on the SDGs c) to identify the current shortcomings in capacity-building efforts d) to develop recommendations for a more coordinated and effective strategy that will strengthen the capacity-building initiatives of India This paper highlights the relevance of the evidence for creating better processes, even in the sphere of sensitisation, capacity-building and advocacy. A major contribution of the paper is to help India develop an evidence-based policy on SDG trainings. This paper will also assist other countries that are currently tackling similar kinds of challenges in the realm of capacity-building for the SDGs in designing a comprehensive capacity-building strategy for effective implementation of the SDGs.
Topic:: Development, Government, Sustainable Development Goals, and Capacity
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

73. The Opportunities and Challenges of Industry 4.0 for Industrial Development: A Case Study of Morocco’s Automotive and Garment Sectors

Author:: Georgeta Vidican Auktor
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The development and application of advanced manufacturing technologies (known as Industry 4.0) have been enabled by the fast-paced process of digital transformation. These transformations are expected to have major implications on the reorganisation of global value chains as well as on labour markets. For late-industrialising countries, Industry 4.0 brings both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, it opens opportunities in terms of improving competitiveness, learning and export markets. On the other hand, however, it may devalue the traditional competitive advantage based on low labour costs, creating difficult-to-tackle challenges on labour markets related to unemployment and new demands for reskilling and upskilling. This paper explores these aspects through the lens of one country, Morocco, and two very different sectors: automotive and apparel. Morocco is a lower-middle-income country that has capitalised on its proximity to Europe and succeeded in developing a dynamic export-oriented automotive industry. The garment sector, which is critical for employment, has been generally neglected by the industrial development strategies. However, Industry 4.0 and its implications on global value chains are likely to affect both sectors, although in different ways. Our analysis clearly shows that interventions must be tailored to the different degrees of technological readiness. The automotive sector is driven more by the needs of major original equipment manufacturers. Therefore, industrial policy should focus on setting the framework conditions, enabling upgrading by investing in research and development, and shifting incentives towards facilitating local suppliers to better integrate with higher-tier suppliers. In the garment sector, policy interventions need to be more comprehensive, from developing a long-term vision to building awareness on technological upgrading and new business models enabled by digitalisation and automation. Moreover, there is extensive scope for industrial policy to contribute to building basic technological and knowledge capabilities all along the garment supply chain and to attracting investment.
Topic:: Development, Manufacturing, Industry, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:: North Africa and Morocco

74. New Rules, Same Practice? Analysing UN Development System Reform Effects at the Country Level

Author:: Silke Weinlich, Max Otto Baumann, Maria Cassens-Sasse, Rebecca Hadank-Rauch, Franziska Leibbrandt, Marie Pardey, Manuel Simon, and Anina Strey
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: With its unique multilateral assets, the United Nations Development System (UNDS) should be playing a key role in assisting governments and other stakeholders with their implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. But this requires change. Despite improvements in recent decades, too often the UNDS has continued to act as a loose assemblage of competing entities, undermining its effective support for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) implementation. It is against that backdrop that the UNDS has been undergoing an extensive reform – that was decided on in 2018 and has been implemented since 2019 – to provide more coherent, integrated support in line with requirements of the 2030 Agenda to United Nations (UN) programme countries. What effects have the reforms yielded at the country level? This paper presents the main findings, conclusions and recommendations from our research on UNDS reform implementation. It does so with a focus on reform-induced changes towards what we call a strengthened, collective offer at the country level. Overall, our research shows that reform implementation is moving the needle on the quality of the collective offer. In particular, with regard to its institutional element, we observed that the reform has fostered change in how UN country teams work together that is in line with what the 2030 Agenda demands. Institutional changes allow for increased cross-organisational and cross-sectoral coordination, which could potentially lead to increased policy coherence. But while we see substantial progress, it remains incomplete, fragile and subject to structural limitations. A more critical picture emerges with regard to change in the substantive component of the collective offer in the areas of SDG integration, cross-border work and normative approaches. While there were positive examples, we found little evidence of a systematic repositioning in these areas. The adjustment of the UNDS to the 2030 Agenda does not (yet) meet the expectations derived from the UN’s own reform ambition.
Topic:: Development, United Nations, Reform, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

75. What Role do Local Elections Play for Societal Peace in Nepal? Evidence from Post-Conflict Nepal

Author:: Charlotte Fiedler, Karina Mross, Anna Berg, Prakash Bhattarai, Dorothea Drees, Tim Kornprobst, Alexandra Leibbrandt, Philipp Liegmann, and Maleen Riebsamen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Can local elections introduced in a post-conflict context help to foster societal peace, or do they create new potential for conflict? The value of post-conflict elections has been the matter of controversial academic debates. However, this literature largely neglects to take into account the role of local elections. Based on the literature, we formulate three hypotheses on how local elections might impact societal peace, focussing on the periods before, during and after an election. The first focusses on the potential negative effects of identity-based mobilisation before an election, while the latter two lead us to expect positive effects – either through increased participation through the vote during an election, or improved responsiveness as a consequence after an election. We study each of these three mechanisms in Nepal, a country that experienced almost 10 years of civil war up until 2006 and where local elections were reintroduced in 2017. Combining 79 qualitative interviews at the national and local levels with insights from a large-n survey of 1,400 respondents, we find that overall the reintroduction of local elections had a clear positive impact on societal peace in Nepal. In particular, the results show that the elections increased participation and responsiveness, which has positively affected political trust and reduced (the potential for) political violence. Overall, this paper thereby contributes to the academic debate on the role of elections for peace, calling to attention the positive role local elections can play. It also demonstrates the benefits of moving beyond a narrow definition of peace in relatively stable post-conflict contexts to take a closer look at the effect of political institutions on societal dynamics.
Topic:: Elections, Conflict, Peace, and Society
Political Geography:: South Asia and Nepal

76. Israel’s Ukraine policy: ‘Right side of history’ vs national interest

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: History has no right side and it does not evolve according to moral imperatives.
Topic:: Diplomacy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

77. Beijing Winter Olympics 2022: Sports, Law, and Policies

Author:: Tim Harcourt, Deborah Healey, Keiji Kawai, and Yang Pei
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics were hosted amid the Covid-19 pandemic and surrounded by concerns and controversies. This Understanding China Brief results from a roundtable discussion organized by the China Studies Centre and the Centre for Asia and Pacific Law of Sydney University on 3 February 2022 to examine four aspects of the Beijing Olympics: boycotts, COVID- 19 control, law reform, and the economics of the Olympics.
Topic:: Economics, Reform, Sports, Conflict, Olympics, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

78. Comparing Older Adults’ Mental Health Needs and Access to Treatment in the U.S. and Other High-Income Countries

Author:: Munira Z. Gunja, Arnav Shah, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: Nearly all U.S. adults over 65 have some mental health coverage through Medicare. Whether that coverage is sufficient is in question. Comparing mental health care access and affordability for U.S. Medicare beneficiaries with that for older adults in peer nations could highlight coverage gaps and point to opportunities for improvement.
Topic:: Economics, Health Care Policy, Social Policy, and Medicare
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

79. Primary Care in High-Income Countries: How the United States Compares

Author:: Molly FitzGerald, Munira Z. Gunja, and Roosa Tikkanen
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: Primary care providers (PCPs) serve as most people’s first point of contact with the health care system. These clinicians build relationships with their patients over time and help coordinate care delivered by other health care providers.1 Evidence shows that a strong foundation of primary care yields better health outcomes overall, greater equity in health care access and outcomes, and lower per capita health costs.2 But in the United States, decades of underinvestment and a low provider supply, among other problems, have limited access to effective primary care.3 This brief highlights gaps in the U.S. primary care system by comparing its performance to systems in 10 other high-income countries.
Topic:: Governance, Health Care Policy, Medicine, and Primary Care
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

80. Mapping state capacity in Africa: Professionalism and reach

Author:: Matthias Krönke, Robert Mattes, and Vinothan Naidoo
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Whether depicted as bloated, extractive, or remote from the lives of ordinary citizens, the African state is widely seen to lack the necessary capacity to provide for the physical and material security of its citizens or to command legitimacy. Yet scholars have rarely attempted to assess the performance of the African state through the prism of the lived experiences of those whom the state is meant to serve – its citizens. Most studies rely on data supplied by national statistics agencies or the judgments of expert observers. And while scholars acknowledge that the quality of the African state is likely shaped by geographic and ethnic differences within countries, few have measured how state capacity varies at the sub-national level. In this paper, we address this situation by using survey research measures of respondents’ proximity to state services and actual experiences with civil servants to measure two distinct dimensions of the state salient to the African context: its reach, or physical presence at the grassroots across the breadth of a country, and its professionalism, or ability to deliver public services in a proficient and ethical manner. The results reveal new perspectives on which states excel on either or both dimensions. They also illustrate how widely state performance varies at the sub-national level. Finally, we use survey data to assess the performance of the state, and show that it is the degree of professionalism, and sometimes reach, that enables the state to provide security and welfare, satisfy demands, and secure popular legitimacy. But in contrast to usual expectations, the size of the state at senior levels has no impact.
Topic:: Nationalism, State Formation, State Building, Professionalism, and Subnationalism
Political Geography:: Africa

81. Footing the bill? Less legitimacy, more avoidance mark African views on taxation

Author:: Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Taxation is a key fiscal tool for domestic resource mobilization. In many African countries, however, weak tax-administration systems limit the ways in which governments can finance their development agendas and provide essential services such as health care, education, and infrastructure (Drummond, Daal, Srivastava, & Oliveira, 2012). The importance of raising resources through taxation has been heightened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments globally have confronted a sudden drop in tax revenue as many economic sectors have slowed amid lockdowns. Especially in developing countries, this shock has significantly curtailed governments’ ability to fund access to vital health, financial, and other services and assistance to those most affected by the pandemic (Gaspar, Hanif, Pazarbasioglu, & Saint-Amans, 2020). The reduction in tax revenue during the pandemic is likely to compound itself over time and limit how quickly developing economies can bounce back as governments lack the fiscal resources to stimulate growth. Even without a pandemic, tax revenues are relatively low across Africa. In 2019, 30 African countries averaged tax revenues totaling 16.6% of gross domestic product – half the 33.8% collected by member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/AUC/ATAF, 2021). In addition to capacity limitations of government tax agencies, low tax revenues can be related to macroeconomic factors such as large agricultural and informal sectors, which are typically hard to tax (Di John, 2006; Mansour & Keen, 2009; Coulibaly & Gandhi, 2018; Moore, Prichard, & Fjeldstad, 2018). One current debate concerns how to tax highly digitalized businesses – which operate in African countries without necessarily having an easily taxable physical presence – in a way that is fair and doesn’t impede the growth of start-up companies (African Tax Administration Forum, 2020). But low tax revenues can also reflect micro-level factors such as citizens’ limited willingness to pay taxes (“tax morale”), a lack of knowledge about what they owe and what their taxes are used for, and their perceptions of corruption in the tax administration (OECD, 2019). If citizens regard paying taxes as a fiscal exchange or contractual relationship (Moore, 2004), these factors can affect the perceived legitimacy of taxation as a whole (D’Arcy, 2011). Beyond short- and medium-term fiscal problems, this can also have a more fundamental impact on the legitimacy of governments and political systems. The ability to raise revenue through taxes is an important marker of state capacity and political legitimacy (Brautigam, Fjeldstad, & Moore, 2008), and may contribute to government responsiveness and accountability as taxpayers demand a return on their taxes (Moore et al., 2018). How do Africans see taxation? Afrobarometer survey data collected in 34 African countries in 2019/2021 show that a majority of Africans endorse their government’s right to collect taxes. But popular support for taxation has weakened over the past decade while perceptions that people often avoid paying their taxes have increased sharply. Moreover, many Africans question the fairness of their country’s tax burden, and only half think their government is using tax revenue for the well-being of its citizens. While a majority would pay higher taxes to support young people and national development, most say they find it difficult to get information about tax requirements and uses, and many see tax officials as corrupt and untrustworthy. Such perceptions may play a role in how willingly citizens support – and comply with – their government’s tax administration.
Topic:: Political stability, Tax Systems, Legitimacy, and State Funding
Political Geography:: Africa

82. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:: Elections, Multi Party System, Partisanship, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

83. The challenges of the French Presidency of the Council

Author:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: On 1 January, France took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union for six months. The exercise, which mainly consists of leading meetings of European ministers, is also an opportunity for the country temporarily in charge to convey its priorities and even a political vision for Europe. In this respect, the French Presidency comes at a particular time for the European Union, for France and for its President, Emmanuel Macron. Hard hit by the pandemic, the European Union is both emerging from the crisis and adapting to the global changes accelerated by the crisis. France, for its part, is preparing for a major political event, the presidential election in April, followed by the legislative elections in June. For Emmanuel Macron, the French Presidency of the Council will bring to a close a presidential term of office that has focused strongly on European issues, almost five years after his speech at the Sorbonne.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Leadership, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and France

84. For a new European growth strategy

Author:: Nicolas Goetzmann
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The early 1990s saw the demise of the Soviet bloc, erasing more than forty years of competition with the United States: the rest of the decade witnessed the economic emergence of the People's Republic of China and the formal advent of the euro area as the economic powerhouse of the European Union. Two decades later, according to data published by the IMF, almost 60% of the world economy is now shared between these three dominant economic areas, the United States, China and the European Union, reshaping the face of the competition for global power.
Topic:: European Union, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and IMF
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

85. European sovereignty, strategic autonomy, Europe as a power: what reality for the European Union and what future?

Author:: Bruno Dupré
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: France has not held the presidency of the Council of the European Union for thirteen years. It has held it since 1 January 2022 for a period of six months. This provides an opportunity for the French Head of State to give his vision of geopolitical issues. It also provides an opportunity to explain the concepts of European sovereignty, power, autonomy and strategic responsibility. France, with Germany and the support of the institutions, has played an essential - albeit contested - role in promoting a more political Europe over the past five years (Sorbonne speech in 2017). The aim of this article is to assess five years – in terms of where we are from an economic, foreign policy and security point of view and to analyse the steps taken by the European Union to become a fullfledged player on the international scene.
Topic:: Security, Sovereignty, European Union, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe

86. "If only ageing Europe had taken the easy option of more immigration"

Author:: Giles Merritt
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: It seems extraordinary three-quarters of a century after the Treaty of Rome was signed, and almost 30 years since the European Union's 'Big Bang' enlargement, that a major common problem should so consistently fail to find a common solution. Yet that is the fate of immigration policies in Europe. Extraordinary may not be the right word; 'Significant' might be more appropriate because the issues surrounding immigration into Europe are not just politically sensitive in national terms but also point to fault lines that threaten the EU's future integrity
Topic:: Demographics, Migration, Immigration, European Union, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe

87. The European strategy for a 'New Deal' with Africa

Author:: Ramona Bloj
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: On 17 and 18 February will take place in Brussels the 6th Summit between the European Union and the African Union - a vital meeting for Afro-European relations. The heads of state and government (twenty-seven Europeans and fifty-five Africans) are invited to discuss issues such as financing growth, the future of health systems, vaccine production, agriculture, education, vocational training, culture, immigration, mobility, support for the private sector and economic integration, governance, peace, security, climate change and the energy transition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

88. Russia, Ukraine and international Law

Author:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Russian actions in Ukraine since 2014, and the tensions to which they have led, obscure the legal aspects of these attacks thereby opening the way to propaganda and approximations. To contribute to a better understanding of what is at stake, this contribution is limited to the legal aspects of an otherwise eminently political issue. This in fact heralds a spectacular break in the international order and a violation of commitments and treaties signed by a member of the Security Council of the United Nations that have not been witnessed since the Second World War[1].For a long time, Russian diplomacy was attached to the strict and formal respect of the rules of international law, sometimes "clinging" to them in a bid to resist the demands made by the different populations. Even during the succession of the USSR, this constant was respected. However, the actions in Crimea and Donbass since 2014 have marked the abandonment of this formalism, while the Kremlin's diplomacy is promoting the need to conclude new treaties with the United States and European states so that Russia can endorse its claims.
Topic:: International Law, Conflict, Norms, Annexation, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

89. The Eastern Partnership under the test of war in Ukraine

Author:: Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: On the eve of the fifth enlargement of the European Union in 2003, the neighbourhood policy was launched to “prevent further lines of division in Europe and to promote stability and prosperity” and to create, according to a now famous concept, a “circle of friends”. The Eastern Partnership, which emerged on 7 May 2009, is now being undermined by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine.
Topic:: European Union, Partnerships, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

90. Has Europe’s hour come?

Author:: Antoine Cibirski
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: “Europe’s hour has come”, said a Luxembourg minister in 1991 at the beginning of the Yugoslav wars. The context seemed favourable: an initially peripheral crisis, a relative lack of interest on the part of Russia, a green light from the United States which was even encouraging invention by the Western European Union (WEU), the majority of whose activities were taken over by the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), and later by the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). America's 'pet project' at the time was not yet Asia, but rather the management of the decay of the Soviet world, without much interest in the Western Balkans. In response, some Europeans 'held back' and feared an unfavourable division of tasks: 'noble' collective defence missions reserved for NATO and peacekeeping missions, considered 'subordinate', for Europe. Strategic prescience! Four years later, we had witnessed the bombing of civilians, the siege of Sarajevo, broken ceasefires, failed mediations and Srebreniça. We had experienced the humiliations inflicted on a UN force (UNPROFOR) that had a timid mandate and overly restrictive rules of engagement. The British and French were in the field this time round, but not the Germans. The Dayton Peace Agreement, which only France calls "the Dayton-Paris agreement" (a formal concession by Bill Clinton to Jacques Chirac) was largely a Pax Americana. In the American camp, Richard Holbrooke had pulled the strings and decided everything, by ruthlessly relegating the European leaders, including Carl Bildt, Jacques Blot and Pauline Neville-Jones[1].
Topic:: European Union, Conflict, and Integration
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

91. European unilateralism as a tool for regulating international trade: a necessary evil in a collapsing multilateral system

Author:: Alan Hervé
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), the fight to prevent illegal foreign subsidies, the ban on trade in deforestation products, the due diligence obligation imposed on European companies, the anti-coercion regulation, the reciprocity instrument in public procurement, the foreign investment screening regulation, not to mention the set of exceptional trade measures implemented in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine; there is a long list of decisions adopted and under discussion that mark the European Union's determination to decide alone on the regulation of trade between itself and the rest of the world. This European "neo-unilateralism" is certainly based on a logic that is not entirely new - the defence of the Union's interests through trade policy or trade regulation instruments - but it also presents singular features and reflects political choices that prevail, more than in the past, over strict mercantile considerations. It is a vehicle for promoting the European Union's strategic autonomy in a multilateral system that is in the process of collapsing and an international order that has been hit by crises.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, European Union, Multilateralism, International System, and Unilateralism
Political Geography:: Europe

92. World food crisis: between withdrawal and responsibility, Europe must choose

Author:: Emmanuelle Ducros
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The profound destructuring of world food markets as a result of Russia's war on Ukraine is forcing all of the world's agricultural powers to question their place on the world stage of satiety - or hunger. This is primarily the case in Europe.
Topic:: Food, Hunger, Armed Conflict, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

93. Nuclear Waste Policy Actions for the 117th Congress and Biden Administration

Author:: Matt Bowen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In the 117th Congress, the United States Senate is evenly divided, 50-50, between the two major political parties, and the margin for control of the US House is small. One nonpartisan—and overdue—policy issue that Congress and the executive branch could focus on is the US nuclear waste management program. The US is currently paying billions to utilities to house spent nuclear fuel (SNF) at operating and shutdown facilities, and high-level waste (HLW) remains at former nuclear weapons complex sites around the country. Add to this the potential for greater future reliance on nuclear power in a decarbonizing economy, and the need to finally get a handle on managing radioactive waste is clear. An earlier report from the Center on Global Energy Policy on the US nuclear waste management program examined larger structural changes that the federal government could pursue to help the program make progress, such as fixing the funding mechanism and updating regulatory standards.[1] This commentary discusses the US program as it stands in the 117th Congress and proposes a series of comparatively smaller actions that could be considered and perhaps pursued on a bipartisan basis in the next few years.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Governance, Leadership, and Nuclear Waste
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

94. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from State-Owned Enterprises: A Preliminary Inventory

Author:: Alex Clark and Philippe Benoit
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play a major role in the production of goods and services across many of the world’s largest economies, particularly in electricity generation, oil and gas, and heavy industry. SOEs (defined in this report as companies for which 50 percent or more of voting shares are held by a government) are also major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The governments that control these SOEs are also signatories to the Paris Agreement on climate change. State ownership provides these governments with a major direct point of control over the climate and energy outcomes of these companies, both in terms of reducing emissions and directing future investment into low-carbon technologies and infrastructure. Improving the measurement of SOEs’ contribution to both national and global-level emissions provides important information to help understand to what extent SOEs should be targeted and to design strategies to maximize their potential role in the broader energy transition. This report provides an accounting of direct emissions associated with SOEs globally. It is challenging to comprehensively identify every SOE, as the total is estimated at well over 100,000. In addition, most identified SOEs do not disclose their emissions nor are estimates of these emissions available in the public domain. Despite these limitations, data compiled for this report covering almost 300 major SOEs suggest that SOEs globally are responsible for at least 7.49 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) annually in direct (Scope 1) emissions. While the true scale of SOE-related emissions is likely to be substantially higher, particularly when accounting for national oil companies and iron and steel manufacturers that do not currently report their emissions, this figure is over 1 GtCO2e greater than various previous estimates, and larger than the total annual emissions of any country except China.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

95. Tallying Updated NDCs to Gauge Emissions Reductions in 2030 and Progress toward Net Zero

Author:: James Glynn, Kristin Smith, Melissa Lott, Lilly Yejin Lee, Jordan Shenhar, and Pekun Bakare
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The Paris Agreement included two particularly crucial innovations for supporting greenhouse gas emissions reductions: a voluntary, bottom-up nationally determined contribution (NDC) and a ratchet mechanism. The latter change meant that, in the run-up to the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Glasgow last fall, countries prepared updated NDCs—specific commitments to reduce emissions by 2030—that outlined their increased ambition. After the adoption of the Glasgow Climate Pact, many observers have focused on what these NDCs, as well as countries’ pledges to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by certain dates, could mean for the world’s ability to limit global temperature rise to well below 2° Celsius—the central goal of the Paris Agreement. But another critical question remains: how would these targets and ambitions drive near-term emissions reductions. Understanding the answer can provide insights to investors, utilities, or others with decision time horizons of 10–15 years and that wish to align with net-zero ambitions. This report, part of the energy systems modeling program at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, aims to assess the alignment between updated NDCs and current net-zero pledges for policy makers and industry leaders to gain insight into their own national and corporate decarbonization outlooks. It considers all classes of NDCs, including: 1) percentage reduction in emissions relative to a historical base year level, 2) percentage reduction compared to a 2030 business-as-usual scenario, and 3) reduction in emissions intensity of gross domestic product. It presents an estimate of the percentage reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) from 2015 to 2030 for all commitments outlined in NDCs for countries that also have a net-zero target. Overall, this analysis finds that the NDCs of economies with 2050 net-zero pledges would lead to a 27 percent reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, relative to 2015. However, countries with post-2050 net-zero pledges are projected to increase their emissions by 10 percent between 2015 and 2030, lowering the net global emission reduction to 9 percent over this period.
Topic:: Environment, Green Technology, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

96. US-China Roundtable on Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage

Author:: David B. Sandalow, Sally Qiu, and Zhiyuan Fan
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On November 17, 2021, New York time/November 18, 2021, Beijing time, the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and Energy Foundation-China convened an online roundtable on carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) in the United States and China. Scholars, industry officials and policy makers exchanged information and ideas concerning CCUS development in each country. Participants discussed the role of CCUS in achieving net zero emissions, focusing on three topics in particular: CCUS costs, strategies for utilization of carbon dioxide (CO2) and CCUS policies. This report summarizes key points made by participants at the roundtable, which was held under the Chatham House Rule.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

97. Carbon Pricing During an Energy Crisis

Author:: Harrison Fell and Pierre Noel
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The European energy crisis, aggravated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, amplifies the tension between climate mitigation action and energy affordability. Introducing a more effective safety valve to the EU carbon market could reduce affordability concerns and the political pressure associated with extreme price spikes, making the system more resilient. It could be accompanied by a more effective price floor too.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Conflict, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

98. Venezuela Oil Sanctions: Not an Easy Fix

Author:: Luisa Palacios and Francisco J. Monaldi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended global energy markets and brought energy security issues back to the forefront of global attention. The unexpected visit of a US government delegation to Caracas for talks with Nicolas Maduro on March 5th may be considered an example of official recognition of this imperative.[1] The visit led to speculation that sanctions on the Maduro regime could be lifted and that a rapid ramp up of Venezuelan oil production and export could result.[2] This commentary makes three arguments concerning these recent developments. First, rather than potentially leading to the lifting of US sanctions on the Maduro regime, the visit could result in – provided certain conditions are met – an easing or softening of existing oil sanctions via licenses for some of the international oil companies (IOCs) that still operate in Venezuela.[3] Second, in the short term, it is unlikely that this scenario, should it come to pass, would offer any meaningful relief to global oil markets, as substantial increments in oil production from Venezuela would require overcoming many obstacles and risks, even with a potential softening of oil sanctions. However, the latter would likely lead to the redirection of Venezuela’s existing oil exports to the US market. Third, Venezuela has already seen a recovery of oil production, albeit from historically low levels. In a context of no sanctions relief, continued recovery is not guaranteed and might depend on how geopolitical events impact Russian oil exports and the outcome of the Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

99. Energy Markets and the Design of Sanctions on Russia

Author:: Christof Ruhl
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Sanctions against the citizens, institutions, and products of the Russian Federation are evolving rapidly. Energy sanctions started late, but the number of countries embargoing oil, gas, or coal imports from Russia is expanding. These sanctions are likely to increase global fuel prices while depressing the price of the sanctioned fuel. The experience to date suggests that the current, gradual approach of reducing oil and gas imports from Russia one country at a time may have room to go further. Before the invasion of Ukraine, the sweeping and unprecedented sanctions promised in the event of a Russian invasion were often conceived as a two-pronged pincer movement. The idea was to isolate Russia from the global financial system while limiting its commodity and energy exports. Both moves were aimed at the source of the financial strength of “fortress Russia,” namely, its persistent balance of payment surplus.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Financial Markets, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

100. Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices

Author:: Christof Ruhl
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Sanctions against the Russian Federation are developing so fast that it is hard to keep track of them and even harder to see a consistent narrative as events unfold. But there is one. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of energy and commodities. A persistent balance of payment surplus is the source of its financial strength, in terms of both current income and the financial assets previously accumulated by “fortress Russia.” Oil, gas, and coal exports constitute the most valuable revenue streams and are therefore prime targets of sanctions policy.[1] The problem is that energy sanctions will backfire badly if they lead to price increases large enough to derail the economic performance of sanctioning countries.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS