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  • Author: Richard T. Carson, Donald R. McCubbin
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
  • Abstract: Concerns about the sustainability of resource use have no doubt been raised since civilization began. The most famous proponent of these concerns is Thomas Malthus (1976), who, in 1798, predicted that population growth would outstrip the ability of agriculture to supply food, and mass starvation would ensue. More recently, the widely read Limits to Growth report, by Meadows et al. (1974), presented a model of resource use and development that predicted humans would face unprecedented pollution and starvation, if current resource use patterns continued into the future. Of course, both reports' most dire predictions have not come true for several reasons. They failed to account for improvements in technology, the power of market prices to ration scarce resources, and the public's demand for environmental preservation when confronted with a perceived scarcity of environmental goods. Although the dire predictions failed to materialize, many believe that environmental quality will deteriorate as the world's economies grow, unless there are significant changes in human behavior. In this paper we make a modest attempt, using air pollution data, to examine the linkage between economic growth, human behavior, and environmental quality.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Environment
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Paolo Guerrieri
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: This paper analyses changes in the trade patterns of Central/Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU), and the potential role in the global/European division of labor of these transforming economies. In the reform period (1989–1995) trade pattern of Central and Eastern Europe has experienced significant changes. The most pronounced trend was the strong expansion of trade with the OECD countries, in particular with the European Union, whereas CMEA intraregional trade literally collapsed. This massive geographical reorientation of trade has determined also significant changes in the commodity composition of trade of CEE in the same period.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia
  • Author: Saori N. Katada
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: The world has experienced many financial crises. Despite numerous research and policy efforts in prevention to present them at of large scale, the global economy has not seen economists' (and investors') Nirvana of financial globalization without the occasional crises. On the contrary, the increasing dynamism and changing nature of financial flows across national borders seem to have created a larger number of new problems for creditors, debtors and international financial institutions. That has typically been true for middle income countries in Latin America and Asia and, very recently, in Eastern Europe, which have been integrated into the international financial system. During the two decades between the late 1970s and the late 1990s, three major sets of financial crises originated from those middle income countries, intensifying concerns for international financial stability.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Israel, East Asia, Latin America, Central America, North America
  • Author: Thomas D. Willett
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: Two major views dominate policy discussions of the role of international capital flows in the global political economy. While both believe that high capital mobility is eroding national sovereignty, one sees this as a positive step, that constrains governments' tendencies to follow overexpansionary macroeconomic policies for domestic political gain and promotes convergence toward low rates of inflation. Advocates of this viewpoint would typically agree with Haggard and Maxfield (1996) that “Increased financial integration holds governments hostage to foreign exchange and capital markets, forcing greater fiscal and monetary discipline than they might otherwise choose” (p. 36). This view is implied by most of the currently most popular economic models. The second viewpoint sees international capital markets as capricious followers of fads and fashions that pose serious challenges to domestic financial stability. The statements of Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia are typical of this view.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Imtiaz Hussain
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: How do we reconcile economic competitiveness with trade regionalism? This exploratory investigation first takes stock of how competitiveness has been defined by both economists and political scientists, then extracts an inclusive model from the different literatures, and finally broadly assesses business transactions and trends across North America using that model. Beginning with the Ricardo-Viner and Hecksher-Olin explanations, various types of competitiveness articulated by Michael Porter, Mancur Olson, and David Mares are subsequently brought in. preliminary findings presented as hypotheses for future testing, suggest that: that evaporation of hegemony has resulted in multiple claims to competitiveness across North America, policy convergences are more widespread and common than ever before, regional-level cooperation provides an efficient means for all three countries to offset global competitiveness, and domestic interests, though still a potential veto force, are slowly embracing, rather than opposing, supranational efforts.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, North America
  • Author: Judith Mariscal, John B. Horrigan
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: Technology policy in the United States has undergone a dramatic transformation in the past ten to twelve years, as the government has increasingly played an active role in the high-tech sector and as the sector itself has faced growing competition from foreign competitors. Truths (or apparent truths) which once were unquestioned—that the U.S. government should only intervene in technology for national security reasons, that entrepreneurial high-tech firms operate best as "lone rangers" in the marketplace—have been closely scrutinized. The result of such scrutiny is that government and industry have changed their perceptions about their roles in a world in which the economic and competitive environment shifts rapidly. Another outcome is that technology policy has taken on increasing importance in U.S. policy circles. We see in the Clinton Administration plans to promote the information superhighway, proposals to overhaul the way in which the telecommunications industry is regulated, support for government-industry research consortia, closer linkage of trade and technology policy, and in general a much closer industry government relationship with the high-tech sector.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: G.B. Madison
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
  • Abstract: Globalization is a multifaceted phenomenon. In this paper I seek to discern some of the challenges it poses, as well as some of the opportunities it offers. To this end, attention is focused on three major aspects of globalization: the economic, the cultural, and the political. Particular consideration is given to the political-economic lessons to be learned from the recent East Asian financial (and economic) crisis; the homogenizing and civilizing ramifications of globalization in the realm of culture; and the relation between economic globalization, the threat it poses to the traditional notion of national sovereignty, and the prospects for the development of civil society, the rule of law, and democratic governance. The paper concludes by arguing that, as a result of the emerging global economy, we are witnessing the emergence of a new form of capitalism, qualitatively different from both 19th-century laissez-faire capitalism and 20th-century “managed” capitalism.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Markets
  • Political Geography: East Asia, Asia
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion, which has become the second longest on record. The coincident indicators show aggregate activity rising at a more moderate pace than GDP's rise of 5.6 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. There is no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy with bright prospects in 1999. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising between 2.5 and 3 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The economy shows no evidence of cyclical imbalance.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators show the 4th quarter of 1998 starting with a relatively slow pace of growth (compared to the coincident index's rise of rise 3.0 percent and GDP's rise of 3.7 percent, annualized, during the first 3 quarters of 1998. The leading indicators show no serious impediments to moderate, or even strong, economic growth in 1999. There is almost no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States