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  • Author: Allen Collinsworth, Robert Orttung, Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: At approximately 12.30 p.m. EST today, the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin's nomination as Prime Minister by an open ballot vote of 251-94 (with 105 abstaining). 226 votes are needed to confirm him. Chernomyrdin's own Our Home Is Russia party provided most of his support (64 votes). Zhirinovsky's party, the Liberal Democrats, abstained (49 votes). Analysts underscored the weakness of support for Chernomyrdin by noting that, in the first round of voting on the nomination of Prime Minister Kiriyenko five months ago, Kiriyenko polled 143 votes in favor. This was in secret balloting, however, which to some extent invalidates the comparison.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rado Petkov, Rick Petree
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Doubts were expressed as to the extent one could define the Caucasus and Central Asia as a single region, particularly for the purposes of exploring the potential for subregional cooperation to develop among its constituent states. External considerations (complex relationship between Russia and the states involved; presence of other outside actors; energy transit perspectives; influence of external conflict, i.e. Afghanistan) may point towards consideration of the Southern Tier as one region. However, internal perspectives, geographical, historical, political and cultural, suggest that treating subregionalism separately in the Caucasus and Central Asia might be a more realistic and potentially fruitful approach.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: New York, Europe, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Eugene Spiro
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The EastWest Institute is interested in the issue of banking supervision as one of the primary goals of our Economics Program since 1990 has been to support the establishment of a reformed, market-based banking system in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Former Soviet Union (FSU). As an integral component of our broader work in providing expert support to commercial bank managers and economic policymakers on the concrete aspects of implementing reform-oriented practices and strategies, we see the underlying stability and transparency of the banking system to be of critical importance. In Hungary as elsewhere, banks are indispensable to the smooth functioning of the economy, and the EWI has long subscribed to the view that the banking sector (e.g. in the context of privatisation) is a 'special' sector and requires special treatment.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, Maryland
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: The decision to enlarge the European Union to applicant countries in Central and Eastern Europe is by far the most important instrument to secure the process of democratic and market economic reform in the new, post-Cold War Europe. To implement and manage this decision is indeed a challenge to both the existing members of the Union and the applicants. In principle, the roadmap is clear. Together with the acquis communautaire , the 1993 Copenhagen criteria outline the main framework for the way to full membership. The Union has further developed its enlargement strategy in the Agenda 2000 presented in July 1997.
  • Topic: Economics, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Andrew Moravcsik
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
  • Abstract: The thousands of books and articles on Charles de Gaulle's policy toward European integration, whether written by historians, political scientists, or commentators, universally accord primary explanatory importance to the General's distinctive geopolitical ideology. In explaining his motivations, only secondary significance, if any at all, is attached to commercial considerations. This paper seeks to reverse this historiographical consensus by the four major decisions toward European integration taken under de Gaulle's Presidency: the decisions to remain in the Common Market in 1958, to propose the Fouchet Plan in the early 1960s, to veto British accession to the EC, and to provoke the “empty chair” crisis in 1965-1966, resulting in “Luxembourg Compromise.” In each case, the overwhelming bulk of the primary evidence—speeches, memoirs, or government documents—suggests that de Gaulle's primary motivation was economic, not geopolitical or ideological. Like his predecessors and successors, de Gaulle sought to promote French industry and agriculture by establishing protected markets for their export products. This empirical finding has three broader implications: (1) For those interested in the European Union, it suggests that regional integration has been driven primarily by economic, not geopolitical considerations—even in the “least likely” case. (2) For those interested in the role of ideas in foreign policy, it suggests that strong interest groups in a democracy limit the impact of a leader's geopolitical ideology—even where the executive has very broad institutional autonomy. De Gaulle was a democratic statesman first and an ideological visionary second. (3) For those who employ qualitative case-study methods, it suggests that even a broad, representative sample of secondary sources does not create a firm basis for causal inference. For political scientists, as for historians, there is in many cases no reliable alternative to primary-source research.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Organization, Political Economy, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe, France
  • Author: Amy Korzick Garmer, Anthony Corrado, Angela Campbell, Henry Geller, Tracy Westen, Charles Firestone, Robert Corn-Revere, Monroe E. Price, Forrest P. Chisman, Andrew Graham, Steven S. Wildman, D. Karen Frazer, Andrew L. Shapiro
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: In January, 1998, the Aspen Institute's Communications and Society Program convened the first in a series of meetings to examine the public interest in the United States' communications system. With funding provided by the John and Mary R. Markle Foundation, the Program hosted the initial session of the Aspen Institute Working Group on Digital Broadcasting and the Public Interest on January 25–27, 1998, at the Institute's Wye River Conference Center. The conference brought together twenty-three legal scholars, lawyers, economists, and policy advocates, representing a variety of experiences and perspectives, to consider two issues: (1) the theoretical and legal bases for the imposition of public interest obligations on those using the electromagnetic spectrum for broadcasting purposes, and (2) other public interest implications of the move to digital broadcasting. It is the hope of the Working Group that the ideas generated at this and subsequent meetings will add to the ongoing public dialogue on broadcasting and the public interest, and will prove useful to the ongoing debate over the public interest responsibilities that should accompany broadcasters' receipt of new digital television licenses.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Aspen Institute, Klaus Brendow
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: The paper reviews market–oriented reforms of the electric power industries in central and eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), related utility cooperation and business strategies, and conditions of integrating CEE/CIS electricity systems into the emerging European electricity markets.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe