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5901. Identifying VARs Based on High Frequency Futures Data

Author:
Jonathan H. Wright, Jon Faust, and Eric Swanson
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using the prices of federal funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of Federal Reserve policy decisions on the expected future trajectory of interest rates. We show how this information can be used to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock in a standard monetary policy VAR. This constitutes an alternative approach to identification that is quite different, and, we would argue, more plausible, than the conventional short-run restrictions. We find that the usual recursive identification of the model is rejected, but we nevertheless agree with the literature's conclusion that only a small fraction of the variance of output can be attributed to monetary policy shocks.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

5902. Inflation Targeting and Nominal Income Growth Targeting: When and Why Are They Suboptimal?

Author:
Dale W. Henderson and Jinill Kim
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We derive optimal monetary stabilization rules and compare them to simple rules under both full and partial information. The nominal interest rate is the instrument of monetary policy. Special attention is devoted to inflation targeting and nominal-income-growth targeting. We use an optimizing-agent model of a closed economy which features monopolistic competition in both product and labor markets. A stabilization problem exists because there are one-period nominal contracts, either for wages alone or for both wages and prices, and three shocks that are unknown when contracts are signed. In order to highlight basic theoretical results, we deliberately keep our model simple enough that we can obtain exact solutions. Optimal rules maximize the expected utility of the representative agent subject to the information set of the policymaker. A key result, possibly surprising at first, is that even with monopolistic competition, the optimal full information policy makes the economy mimic the hypothetical equilibrium with flexible prices and wages. We explain why strict versions of inflation targeting, nominal income growth targeting, and other such simple rules are suboptimal under both full and partial information and derive flexible versions that are optimal under certain partial information assumptions. Nominal income growth targeting dominates inflation targeting for plausible parameter values.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

5903. On the Sequencing of Projects, Reputation Building, and Relationship Finance

Author:
David C. Smith, Steven Ongena, and Dominik Egli
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We study the decision an entrepreneur faces in financing multiple projects and show that relationship financing will arise endogenously in an environment where strategic defaults are likely, even when firms have access to arm's-length financing. Relationship financing allows an entrepreneur to build a private reputation for repayment that reduces the cost of financing. However, in an environment where the risk of strategic default is low, the benefits from reputation building are outweighed by holdup rents extractable by the incumbent lender. Entrepreneurs then choose to finance projects from single or multiple arm's-length lenders.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

5904. Determinants and Repercussions of the Composition of Capital Inflows

Author:
Mark Carlson and Leonardo Hernandez
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises of the mid- and late 1990s have renewed the interest among policymakers in the determinants and effects of private capital flows. This paper analyzes whether policies can affect the composition of capital inflows and whether different compositions aggravate crises. We find that, while fundamentals matter, capital controls can affect the mix of capital inflows that countries receive. We find that during the Asian crisis countries with more Yen denominated debt faired worse, while during the Mexican crisis larger short-term debt stocks increased the severity of the crisis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia, and North America

5905. Terrorism's Financial Lifeline: Can It be Severed?

Author:
Kimberley L. Thachuk
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
To operate effectively, transnational terrorists and criminals need ready access to money and the ability to maneuver it quickly and secretly across borders. On a large scale, such money maneuvers can ripple across entire regions, embroiling global markets and threatening vital American economic interests as well as destabilizing other countries politically. The ability to move vast quantities of wealth rapidly and anonymously across the globe—sometimes combining modern-day wire transfers, faxes, and Internet connections with centuriesold practices, such as the hawala, of personal connections and a handshake—gives terrorist and criminal networks a strategic advantage over many states. Yet it also might be their vulnerability.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
America

5906. Inequalities in the Light of Globalization

Author:
Denis Goulet
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
Shortly before his death last year (2001) the Brazilian geographer and philosopher Milton Santos published a book entitled For Another Globalization. The literary scholar and sociologist António Cândido praised him as one “in whose writings scientific rigor was never an obstacle to a developed social conscience.” And although Santos viewed globalization as a “perverse phenomenon” he strove “to show that it is possible to carry it out differently.” The Santos book is but one among many works now issuing from Brazil and calling for a qualitatively different kind of globalization. At the World Social Forum II organized around the theme “Another World is Possible” held in Porto Alegre, Brazil (31 January – 5 February, 2002), thousands of voices from 135 countries likewise launched appeals for Another Globalization. These were the voices of political and church leaders; of NGO's working on diverse fronts (human rights, economic justice, debt relief, environmental protection, gender equality, democratic governance, the Tobin tax, citizen participation in public decision-making, peace, struggles against social exclusion); of rural and urban labor unions; of organizations of the landless and the homeless. Across wide differences in ideology, substantive positions and emphasis, participants at Porto Alegre II nonetheless proclaimed common value allegiances to equity and social justice over maximum economic growth, to participatory decision-making over secretive elite institutional planning, to fair over free trade, to active protection of cultural diversity over uniform economic strategies, to re-empowerment of national states as decisive agents of development over subordination to international corporations or financial agencies. They counterposed these values to their opposites, which they attributed to the elite Davos World Economic Forum, held in New York this year in support of that battered city – maximum economic growth, unregulated capital mobility, free trade, privatization, and a uniform reliance on competitive markets to serve as the motor force of national development everywhere.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:
New York and Brazil

5907. Precocious British Industrialization: A General Equilibrium Perspective

Author:
N.F.R. Crafts and C. Knick Harley
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The British industrial revolution created an industrial economy. While casual discourse conflates industrialization and economic growth, Britain was remarkable primarily for the pronounced structural change that occurred rather than for rapid economic growth. Uniquely the British labour force became highly industrialized even prior to the move to free trade in the 1840s. On the eve of the abolition of the Corn Laws the share of agriculture in employment had already declined to levels that were not reached in France and Germany until the 1950s.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, France, and Germany

5908. Social Insurance Regimes: crises and 'reform' in the Argentine and Brazil, since c. 1900

Author:
Colin Lewis and Peter Lloyd-Sherlock
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The paper examines the structural and organisational problems of social insurance systems in Brazil and the Argentine in order to illuminate current debates about pension 'reform'. Much of the present discussion depicts social insurance 'crisis' as a modern phenomenon. Similarly, preoccupations about the macroeconomic objectives of reform - profitable pension funds as an adjunct to capital market deepening, about sustainability - the financial viability of systems, and about equity and coverage, are often assumed to be peculiar to the late twentieth century. The papers stresses the generational (or cyclical) nature of crises that have plagued social insurance regimes in both countries. It also identifies what may be learnt from differences, as well as similarities, between the two systems - not least the relatively larger historic role the private sector and earlier substantive provision for rural workers in Brazil. Following an appraisal of different 'models' (individual 'capitalised' accounts versus pay-as-you-go schemes and monopolistic state systems versus pluralistic/competitive arrangements), the paper concludes with an evaluation of the administrative and financial stability of current schemes.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

5909. The Argentine Implosion

Author:
Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In December 2001, Argentina recorded the world's largest default ever, as it failed to honor payments on its US$132 billion foreign debt. Since then, five presidents have been in power, the Argentine peso has been devalued by 120 percent, and the banking system has virtually collapsed, dragging the economy into a depression. The gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 16.3 percent in the first quarter of 2002. Argentina's per capita income has become one of the worst in Latin America, and, as a result, more than one-third of its people live under the poverty line. 1 Argentines' confidence in their elected officials has disappeared. By most accounts, the country has literally imploded to a degree that has no precedent in Latin America's contemporary history. This is particularly bewildering, considering that only 10 years ago Argentina was hailed around the world as a model of successful economic reforms, with standards of living that were not only the highest in the region but comparable to those of some southern European countries. How could Argentina go from role model to international outcast so quickly? Some place the blame on external shocks created by the financial crises in Mexico (1995), Indonesia (1997), Thailand (1998), and Russia (1998). Others say the cause of the problem was misguided policy advice from the International Monetary Fund (Stiglitz 2002). Yet, most analyses ascribe much of the trouble to the Convertibility Law's fixed exchange rate policy adopted in 1991.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Indonesia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Thailand

5910. Divergence and dispersion in the Russian economy

Author:
Per Botolf Maurseth
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the Soviet Union, one result of central planning was geographical decentralisation of economic activity to a large set of remote peripheral regions. For Russian post-Soviet regions an important question is whether centripetal market forces may alter the pre-existing industrial location. This paper addresses some aspects of regional economic development in Russia. The Russian economic landscape differs from what is common in market economies. Peripheral regions are generally richer than the average. During the 1990s, differences in gross regional product increased. These developments have also meant less spatial concentration of economic activity. During the last half of the 1990s, economic growth was higher in central regions than in the peripheries. If these trends continue, the Russian economic landscape will alter significantly in the future, with income per capita, total income and population being concentrated in economic central regions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

5911. Economic Convergence through Savings, Trade and Technology Flows—Lessons from Recent Research

Author:
Per Botolf Maurseth
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on income disparity between countries and convergence in economic growth. New theoretical models modify and often reverse the prediction of convergence in the traditional neo-classical model of economic growth. A particular feature of the recent literature as compared to traditional studies of economic growth is that it acknowledges interdependence between countries. International capital flows, trade in goods and (maybe most important) international technology flows influence individual countries growth performance. The empirical literature on the dynamics of the international distribution of income per capita reveals massive unconditional divergence in income levels. For sub-samples of countries on the other hand, the data support the conditional convergence hypothesis: when other factors are accounted for, there is a tendency for income per capita to converge. For the OECD countries, as well as for some other countries, knowledge flows, either embodied in traded goods or disembodied seem to be important for whether poorer countries are able to catch up with richer ones.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

5912. International R Spillovers and the Effect of Absorptive Capacity

Author:
Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
We study the productivity effects of R spillovers through imports, foreign direct investment and domestic intermediates, using a highly disaggregated data set for Norwegian business sectors. As opposed to the large body of similar studies, we explicitly analyse the importance of absorptive capacity effects, claiming that the positive contribution from R spillovers is an increasing function of the R activities of the economic units that receive the spillovers. We find strong support for the existence of R spillovers through imports and domestic intermediates, but no sign of such spillovers through foreign ownership. Surprisingly, we identify absorptive capacity effects relating to spillovers from imports, but no such effects with respect to domestic intermediates. One possible explanation is that the cost of learning from international R sources is larger than from domestic R sources, implying that own R investments can counteract the negative effect of geographical and cultural distance on R spillovers.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Norway

5913. Multinationals Searching for R Spillovers

Author:
Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper surveys the literature on R and technology spillovers as a motive for FDI. During the last years, a growing body of theoretical studies has generated formal arguments supporting the economic rationale for such behaviour. Yet, theoretical contributions are clustered within a few schools and a wider approach is necessary in order to understand the mechanisms that relate R spillovers to FDI. The empirical literature is more numerous, but provides ambiguous conclusions with respect to the strength of this motive. Micro studies provide less supportive results as compared to studies based on more aggregate data. Studies based on patent information are generally supportive to the existence of this motive.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

5914. International R Spillovers and the Absorptive Capacity of Multinationals

Author:
Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper studies R spillovers as a motive for firms to go multinational. The establishment of a foreign subsidiary may increase a firm's ability to learn from foreign R activity since R spillovers between firms are moderated by geographical distance. As opposed to earlier studies on this subject, we also model the concept of absorptive capacity where spillovers are endogenised as a function of the firms'own R investments. We employ a three-stage Cournot duopoly model to identify under what conditions a firm chooses to service a foreign market through exports or localised production (going multinational). With exogenous R investments, the absorptive capacity effect contributes to increase the gains from going multinational when the firm is a technology leader in terms of R If R investments are endogenous, only medium-sized absorptive capacity effects will result in firms going multinational. Also, higher spillover rates do not necessarily drive down R and profits for the multinational firm. This stands in contrast to models that ignore the aspect of absorptive capacity.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

5915. Civil Society and the OECD - update November 2002

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The OECD recognises the valuable contribution that civil society can make to the public policy-making process, and attaches great importance to the Organisation's own consultation and dialogue with civil society organisations (CSOs). This continuing dialogue builds trust in public institutions and promotes public understanding of the benefits and challenges of global economic and social change.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Governmental Organization

5916. Territorial Review on Helsinki, 2002

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The on-going structuring of the Greater Helsinki Region (GHR) should be encouraged by the central government. Managing the growth of the Helsinki region is crucial to avoid urban sprawl and the waste of resources, especially in the long run. With priorities for the Greater Helsinki Region identified, there is room to negotiate a general agreement between the central government and municipalities of the GHR. This agreement should receive large publicity and raise a debate in Parliament as the goal is to reassess both the role and the dependence of Helsinki upon the rest of the country, i.e. how can Finland develop as a whole by making better use of the motor, Helsinki.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

5917. Measuring the Non-Observed Economy

Author:
Derek Blades and David Roberts
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Strictly speaking, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is only a measure of economic activity, but in practice it is often used to compare the relative wellbeing of countries as well as their overall economic performance. To measure the latter, users normally look at the rates of growth of GDP, while for comparing relative wellbeing the levels of GDP percapita are used. The absolute level of GDP is also used for calculating policy-relevant indicators such as the ratio of government deficit to GDP, the ratio of R expenditure to GDP and the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to GDP.
Topic:
Economics and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia

5918. Measuring Student Knowledge and Skills: The PISA 2000 Experience

Author:
Andreas Schleicher and Claudia Tamassia
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
How well do school systems perform in providing young people with a solid foundation of knowledge and skills, and in preparing them for life and learning beyond school? International comparisons of the outcomes of education systems have in the past been elusive. While it has been possible to compare basic structural characteristics of educational programmes and qualifications across countries, such as their entry requirements, their labour-market destination or typical patterns of student participation (see OECD, 1999b), there are no agreed standards that would allow to compare the level of content and quality of the underlying educational activities and services. It is thus difficult to make inferences regarding the knowledge and skills individuals have actually attained from such comparisons. Moreover, knowledge and skills are acquired not just through formal education but also, and increasingly, through formal and informal learning outside regular educational programmes. However, since 1997 governments of the OECD have been working on establishing a comparative framework to assess how well their education systems meet core objectives. The result has been the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), the most comprehensive and rigorous international effort to date to assess learning outcomes and to identify the policy levers that may help improving the performance of education systems.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

5919. Purchasing Power Parities - Measurement and Uses

Author:
Paul Schreyer and Francette Koechlin
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
How does one compare economic data between countries that is expressed in units of national currency? And in particular, how should measures of production and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) be converted into a common unit? One answer to this question is to use market exchange rates. While straightforward, this turns out to be an unsatisfactory solution for many purposes – primarily because exchange rates reflect so many more influences than the direct price comparisons that are required to make volume comparisons. Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) provide such a price comparison and this is the rationale for the work of the OECD and other international organisations in this field (see chart 1). The OECD publishes new sets of benchmark PPPs every three years, drawing on detailed international price comparisons. Every time a new set of benchmark PPPs is released, this also gives rise to a new set of international comparisons of levels of GDP and economic welfare.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

5920. Creation of the Euro Area: Implications for Economic Statistics

Author:
Paul Schreyer
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
A major event in early 2002 was the arrival of the euro banknotes and coins and the withdrawal of the existing twelve national currencies from circulation. The event has influenced every citizen in the euro area and is clearly a historic change. It heralds a new phase in forging an “ever closer union among the peoples of Europe”. In economic terms, however, the introduction in January 1999 of the single currency after determining the irrevocably fixed exchange rates of the national currencies with the euro was a more important event. It meant that decisions on monetary policy moved from national central banks to the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. This Statistics Brief highlights some of the consequences for economic statistics of the creation of the euro area.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe