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5891. Finding Numerical Results to Large Scale Economic Models Using Path-Following Algorithms: A Vintage Capital Example

Author:
Brett Berger
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper describes the numerical optimization methods used in Berger (2001) to find the complete time paths of key economic variables in neoclassical vintage capital models. An interior and a non-interior point method are discussed. Both of the methods are part of the general class of “path-following” algorithms. These algorithms can be efficiently applied to convex programming problems; and due to the standard shape of production and utility functions, many economic problems can be written as convex programming problems. Vintage capital models add scale and complexity to standard growth models because one must now handle the dynamics of multiple capital stocks. This increase in complexity will often prevent the discovery (or existence) of closed form solutions, making numerical solutions of the type found in Berger (2001) necessary.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

5892. Preventing Deflation: Lessons From Japan's Experience in the 1990s

Author:
Jane Haltmaier, Alan J. Ahearne, Joseph Gagnon, and Steve Kamin
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines Japan's experience in the first half of the 1990s to shed some light on several issues that arise as inflation declines toward zero. Is it possible to recognize when an economy is moving into a phase of sustained deflation? How quickly should monetary policy respond to sharp declines in inflation? Are there factors that inhibit the monetary transmission mechanism as interest rates approach zero? What is the role for fiscal policy in warding off a deflationary episode? We conclude that Japan's sustained deflationary slump was very much unanticipated by Japanese policymakers and observers alike, and that this was a key factor in the authorities' failure to provide sufficient stimulus to maintain growth and positive inflation. Once inflation turned negative and short-term interest rates approached the zero-lower-bound, it became much more difficult for monetary policy to reactivate the economy. We found little compelling evidence that in the lead up to deflation in the first half of the 1990s, the ability of either monetary or fiscal policy to help support the economy fell off significantly. Based on all these considerations, we draw the general lesson from Japan's experience that when inflation and interest rates have fallen close to zero, and the risk of deflation is high, stimulus–both monetary and fiscal–should go beyond the levels conventionally implied by baseline forecasts of future inflation and economic activity.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Israel

5893. International Comparisons of Productivity Growth: The Role of Information Technology and Regulatory Practices

Author:
Christopher Gust and Jaime Marquez
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
While information technologies (IT) are credited with the recent acceleration in productivity in the United States, many other industrial countries have not experienced a pickup in productivity growth. To explain this productivity divergence, we use panel data from 1992 to 1999 for 13 industrial countries and find that this divergence is driven in part by differences in both the production and adoption of information technologies. Based on this finding, we proceed to investigate what factors might play a role in explaining differences in IT adoption. Our results support the view that burdensome regulatory environments and in particular regulations affecting labor market practices have impeded the adoption of information technologies and slowed productivity growth in a number of industrial countries. We then develop a theoretical model with vintage capital and labor to evaluate the effect of more stringent labor market regulations on a firm's decision to adopt new technologies. We establish conditions under which a tax on firing workers delays the adoption of IT technology. These conditions occur when technological change is skill-biased and a firm must upgrade the quality of its workforce through labor turnover. The resulting delay in adopting IT technology then has negative implications for economy-wide productivity and is largely consistent with our empirical results.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

5894. A Guide to Choosing Absolute Bank Capital Requirements

Author:
Mark Carey
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Resampling implementation of a stress-scenario approach to estimating portfolio default loss distributions is proposed as the basis for estimates of the appropriate absolute level of economic capital allocations for portfolio credit risk. Estimates are presented for stress scenarios of varying severity. Implications of use of different analysis time horizons are analyzed. Results for a numeraire portfolio are quite sensitive to such variations. Although the analysis is framed in terms of recent proposals to revise regulatory capital requirements for banks, the arguments and results are also relevant for bankers making capital structure decisions.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

5895. To What Extent Will the Banking Industry be Globalized? A Study of Bank Nationality and Reach in 20 European Nations

Author:
David C. Smith, Allen N. Berger, Qinglei Dai, and Steven Ongena
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We model two dimensions of bank globalization – bank nationality (a bank from the firm's host nation, its home nation, or a third nation) and bank reach (a global, regional, or local bank) using a two-stage nested multinomial logit model. Our data set includes over 2,000 foreign affiliates of multinational corporations operating in 20 European nations. We find that these firms frequently use host nation banks for cash management services, and that bank reach may be strongly influenced by this choice of bank nationality. Our results suggest limits to the degree of future bank globalization.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

5896. Equity Prices, Household Wealth, and Consumption Growth in Foreign Industrial Countries: Wealth Effects in the 1990s

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Although most recent empirical research regarding the size and significance of the impact of changes in wealth on consumption has looked for such effects in the United States, equity prices in the 1990s rose considerably in most other industrial countries as well. This paper investigates the strength of the wealth effect across countries. Using a variety of methods, I find evidence of significant wealth effects in the United Kingdom and Canada of a size comparable to that in the United States, reflecting the importance of equities in aggregate household wealth in these countries. A significant wealth effect is also evident in Japan, but because household wealth has changed little on balance in Japan in recent years, this channel has been less important in explaining Japanese consumption growth in the second half of the 1990s. Despite a rapid appreciation in equity prices and an increase in equity ownership in the major continental European countries since 1995, equities remain a less important form of household wealth in most of these countries, and the consumption response to changes in wealth remains limited. However, in some smaller European countries where equity issuance is more common, the emerging evidence suggests that wealth effects may be more important.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Canada

5897. International Coordination of Macroeconomic Policies: Still Alive in the New Millennium?

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon, Dale W. Henderson, Brian M. Doyle, and Laurence H. Meyer
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper we provide two building blocks for an analysis of international policy coordination: (1) a survey of models of policy coordination, and (2) an account of experience with policy coordination among the G-7 countries and within Europe since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System. Using these building blocks, we investigate the correspondence between the models and experience and attempt to draw lessons for both the modelers and the practitioners. We find that the correspondence is close enough that the models help in analyzing several instances of actual policy coordination, but that the correspondence could be even closer. As for lessons for modelers, we suggest that they devote more attention to the analysis of information exchange, a key feature of practical policy coordination; to the coordination of different types of policies; to the ramifications of political divisions within countries; and to the implications of market irrationality and speculative bubbles. As for lessons for policy makers, we suggest that they give more consideration to the choice of their ultimate objectives, in particular to whether the current account should always be close to balance; to achieving better internal policies; and to the greater use of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

5898. Financial Centers and the Geography of Capital Flows

Author:
Francis E. Warnock and Chad Cleaver
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We examine an assumption common in empirical work on bilateral portfolio capital flows that the countries the flows are attributed to are also the countries of the security's issuer, seller, or ultimate buyer. We do this by estimating U.S. investors' holdings of debt and equities in over 40 countries and, for the same countries, foreign investors' holdings of U.S. debt and equities. A comparison of our estimates with data from benchmark surveys provides insight into U.S. data on international debt and equity transactions. We find that, contrary to the common assumption, the data do not track the location of U.S. investment or the location of investors in U.S. assets very well. Because the U.S. portfolio flow data collection system was designed to measure cross-border transactions with foreign counterparties who are often intermediaries, the majority of the flows are attributed to financial centers. By aggregating our country-level estimates, we find that U.S. data accurately portray net inflows into U.S. equities and net outflows into foreign bonds. However, the data substantially overcount net inflows into U.S. bonds and may undercount net outflows into foreign equities. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings for research on capital flows.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

5899. Annual Industrial Capabilities Report to Congress, MAR 2002

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Section 2504 of title 10, United States Code, requires that the Secretary of Defense submit an annual report to the Committee on Armed Services of the Senate and the Committee on Armed Services of the House of Representatives, by March 1st of each year. The report is to include:”(1) A description of the departmental guidance prepared pursuant to section 2506 of this title.(2) A description of the methods and analyses being undertaken by the Department of Defense alone or in cooperation with other Federal agencies, to identify and address concerns regarding technological and industrial capabilities of the national technology and industrial base.(3) A description of the assessments prepared pursuant to section 2505 of this title and other analyses used in developing the budget submission of the Department of Defense for the next fiscal year.(4) Identification of each program designed to sustain specific essential technological and industrial capabilities and processes of the national technology and industrial base.” This report contains the required information.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

5900. Regional Influences on U.S. Monetary Policy: Some Implications for Europe

Author:
Ellen E. Meade and D. Nathan Sheets
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper looks at the monetary policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and asks whether those decisions have been influenced solely by national concerns, or whether regional factors have played a role. All of the Federal Reserve's policymakers have some regional identity, i.e., either their positions explicitly carry some regional affiliation or their region of origin is a factor that must be considered in the selection process. This research is relevant for the Fed, and it may also be relevant for Europe's fledgling central bank in Frankfurt. Critics have asserted that ECB policymakers have an incentive to base policy on national developments and respond to national political pressures. We find that Fed policymakers do take into account developments in regional unemployment when deciding monetary policy, and that these regional developments are more important for central bankers at the hub than in the spokes. These findings are robust to a variety of different specifications of the voting equation.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe