Political Geography: United States of America

401. The Regional and Domestic Elements of Erdoğan's Grand Strategy

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Matthew Czekaj, and Gonul Tol
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Gönül Tol to discuss how shifting regional dynamics — from the Israel-Iran war to renewed violence in southern Syria — are reshaping Turkey’s foreign policy and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's domestic agenda. They unpack Ankara’s ties with the US under the Trump administration, its strained relations with Israel, the implications of Turkey’s peace process with the PKK, and Erdoğan’s bid to maintain his hold on power. The conversation also explores how Turkey is positioning itself as Western engagement grows more uncertain and what this means for the future of democracy in the country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, PKK, Regional Politics, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and United States of America

402. From Regional Insecurity to Global Peace: South Asia’s Security Pathways after U.S. Disengagement

Author:: Adeel Irfan and Sundas Khizar
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Disengagement of the U.S. from Afghanistan has altered the security situation in South Asia. South Asia has heightened insecurities but also opened new ways for collaboration. This research examines the security situation in the region from three perspectives: Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), The Theory of Securitization, and The Dependency Theory. It explains the interaction of local instabilities and the global peace discourse. The research is qualitative and discourse analytical in the description and analytical methods. The economic coherence, counterterrorism, geopolitical realignments, and security discourses are analysed to identify and pattern securitization, articulations of regional threats, and dependency. Interdependence of South Asia‘s security (RSCT) explains South Asia‘s security conundrum. Varying aspects of border disputes, terrorism, and other forms violence are ‗transnational‘. Securitization Theory explains how political leaders and BCEs construct narratives of existential threats (i.e. extremism, insurgency, refugees, and terrorism) to justify fonitization. Dependency Theory explains how the lack of autonomous security postures of South Asian States is framed. These findings suggest that, to achieve sustainable peace in South Asia, there is need to cooperative, regional construct self-dependency, and redeploy the revisited discourses of securitization. The study also adds to the discussion about redefining global peace, which, as the study argues, cannot simply mean the absence of conflict. Global peace must also contain cooperative, just, and desecuritized regional orders. South Asia, thus, teaches valuable lessons on how regional insecurity can be transformed into global peace.
Topic:: Peace, Disengagement, Securitization, Regional Security, Dependency, and Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT)
Political Geography:: South Asia and United States of America

403. U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Implications for Pakistan's Strategy

Author:: Abdul Ghafoor, Mirwais Kasi, and Umbreen Javaid
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This paper discusses US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its political-economic consequences on Pakistan in a changing regional environment. It underscores the U.S.-Pakistan-Afghanistan relations after 9/11 which started in the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, in operation enduring freedom on allegations that Taliban harbored Osama bin Laden. His subsequent demise in the year 2011 in Abbottabad, Pakistan, aggravated regional intricacies. Presidents of the United States Barack Obama and Donald Trump progressively sought troop withdrawal, which eventually saw the last withdrawal, August 21, 2021. The study examines the strategic and political-economic reactions of Pakistan especially its strategic depth seeking in Afghanistan. It also evaluates the potential of Pakistan to stabilize and contribute towards the political economy of Afghanistan. The methodology of the study is qualitative content analysis, with the help of NVivo-14 software. Under the Rational Choice Theory, the study examines the decision-making processes of states such as Pakistan to make strategic choices through cost-benefit analysis to navigate the region and enjoy the best avenue to foreign policy choices.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Political Economy, Military, and Rational Choice Theory
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

404. Artificial Intelligence and the New World Order: A Comparative Study of US-China Technological Rivalry

Author:: Adnan Nawaz, Syed Raghab Ali, Naudir Bakht, and Zosha Noor
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The power rivalry between the United States and China in the twenty-first century has been significantly influenced by advancements in artificial intelligence. This technology not only transforms economic markets but also enhances military capabilities and shapes political governance. This research explores the historical progression of AI development across these countries by showing how their unique political frameworks, alongside economic tables and strategic visions, created separate paths toward AI domination. During the Cold War years, the United States paced ahead through governmental investments combined with university innovation and its flexible private sector activity yet China obtained its growth through state-mandated direction and national planning alongside substantial financial allocations in line with initiatives like the Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan. China's Belt and Road initiative employs AI surveillance tools to construct new infrastructure as the United States depends on autonomous private enterprise operations without state control and freedom to conduct independent research. The competition between China and the United States targets multiple areas including semiconductor manufacturing technology together with quantum computing research and ethical standards creation which exposes weaknesses for each side. This study qualitatively evaluates the competition between US and China and analytically elucidates the key challenges which are posing threats to the global power hierarchy.AI operates as an accelerating force that shapes future power dynamics while determining digital sovereignty principles and deepening global ideological conflicts.
Topic:: Governance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Artificial Intelligence, Rivalry, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

405. The Lawful Losers? Why Democracies Struggle to Deter Cyber Aggression

Author:: Paul A. Eisenmann
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Democratic states are increasingly vulnerable in cyberspace due to inherent ethical constraints, transparency requirements, and legal oversight, significantly hindering their ability to effectively deter cyber aggression. This article critically assesses the strategic disadvantages democracies face using the examples of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, including attribution challenges, threshold ambiguities, and the problematic diffusion of cyber capabilities among state and nonstate actors. It evaluates how strict adherence to international humanitarian law (IHL) further constrains democratic responses, contrasting sharply with the operational flexibility enjoyed by authoritarian adversaries. The article advocates strengthening cyber resilience, promoting global norm-building initiatives, and crucially retaining credible traditional military retaliation options. This integrated strategy enables democracies to uphold their values, effectively counter cyber threats, and actively shape global cyber norms, thereby ensuring strategic stability and digital security.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Democracy, Deterrence, Norms, Resilience, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Constraints
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

406. Strategic Vulnerabilities in Space: U.S.-China Militarization and the Risks to Global Strategic Stability

Author:: Ameema Khalid
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This study investigates the militarization of space by the United States and China using the theoretical frameworks of technological determinism and the security dilemma. Data analysis of policy documents, military doctrines, and strategic literature reveals how technological advancements, mutual distrust, and dual-use technologies have transformed space into a contested domain. Findings indicate that the lack of international regulations and transparency exacerbates the risks of miscalculation and conflict. The study suggests actionable measures, including binding treaties, enhanced transparency, and conflict resolution mechanisms to promote peaceful space exploration. This research contributes to the broader discourse on space security by offering insights into managing militarization challenges in a rapidly advancing technological era.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Space, Strategic Stability, and Militarization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

407. The Berlin Pulse 2025/2026 (full issue)

Author:: Şener Aktürk, Solomiia Bobrovska, Christian von Hirschhausen, Sumantra Maitra, and Katarina Barley
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Körber-Stiftung
Abstract:: In this ninth edition, we explore the end of long-held certainties in the German public’s attitude towards foreign policy. Thanks to our editorial team – Julia Ganter, Leona Harting and Jonathan Lehrer – we learn that its views are at odds with two important pillars of Germanyʼs foreign policy: relations with the United States and responsibility for Israel’s security. With President Donald Trump in his second term, only 27 per cent of German respondents view relations with Washington positively, while the country’s leaders try to deal with an unpopular, less predictable but vital ally. And despite the centrality of relations with Israel to post war-German identity, feelings of responsibility towards Israel have declined. After the Gaza war triggered by Hamas’s 7 October 2023 terrorist attacks, only 35 per cent say that Germany holds a special responsibility toward Israel. The government now faces the challenge of upholding the country’s commitment to Israel’s security while not losing sight of public opinion. Amid these complex international partnerships and their domestic repercussions, many Germans seek greater autonomy and action. Nearly half of respondents (48 percent) support more engagement in global crises, 72 per cent back plans to almost double defence spending within a decade, and 59 per cent favour providing military aid to Ukraine. These attitudes stand for the Zeitenwende, which we have examined in recent editions of The Berlin Pulse. But can Germany strengthen its defence capabilities while maintaining its leading role in civilian crisis management at the same time? In this edition, authors like Rime Allaf, Ana Revenco and Eckart von Hirschhausen urge continued German leadership in environmental protection, support of democracy, Ukraine’s reconstruction and combating disinformation. With the number of conflicts and crises rising dependable rules can be an anchor. This is why UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, Vice President of the European Parliament Katarina Barley, and United Arab Emirates Policy Center President Ebtesam Al-Ketbi urge Germany and Europe to remain committed to defending human rights and to upholding international law. Looking back on the history of the Federal Republic, the gap between public opinion and official policy is nothing new. But in the current geopolitical context, the question how Germany’s government will navigate the relationship between foreign policy principles and a changing public mood arises with renewed urgency. This edition of The Berlin Pulse seeks to stimulate reflection and debate on this question.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Public Opinion, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Germany, Syria, and United States of America

408. Costly Adaptation, Not Capitulation: Iran’s Likely Trajectory Under the Post—JCPOA Pressure Campaign

Author:: Hadi Kahalzadeh
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Following the 12-day war with Israel, the reinstatement of U.N. Security Council snapback sanctions, and Washington’s renewed maximum pressure campaign, the Islamic Republic is now experiencing the most intense external political and economic coercion in its history. Yet this strategy is unlikely to deliver on the United States’ intended goals of regime change or nuclear restraint. Instead, it is pushing Iran toward deeper poverty, more complex security postures, and a trajectory that increases, not reduces, the likelihood of a costly military confrontation. From Tehran’s standpoint, Washington’s objectives extend beyond nuclear limits toward regime change. Negotiations are viewed as potential ambushes for another round of conflict, and accepting U.S. demands would be politically humiliating. In this deadlock, Tehran opts for resistance as the only survivable path. Iran has adapted its economy to withstand the strains caused by far-reaching Western sanctions through a wide range of measures. These include diversification, trade restructuring, de-dollarization, alternative banking pathways including offshore banking to circumvent U.S. control, shifting trade eastward to China (now Iran’s top trading partner), and import substitution in manufacturing and agriculture. When intense external political and economic pressures fail to produce the expected capitulation, a misinterpretation of Iran’s vulnerability could invite further pressure. Without a credible diplomatic path, this dynamic creates the possibility for a dangerous escalation cycle. While U.S. strikes on Iran this past June did considerable damage to nuclear facilities, Iran retains enough nuclear fissile material and technical expertise to preserve a position of strategic ambiguity. Iran’s adaptation strategy has preserved core state function and regime cohesion, even as the general public has suffered. Increasingly, Iran has become a patron welfare state, rewarding regime loyalty and shielding public employees and politically connected groups from the effects of sanctions, shifting economic burden onto the broader, politically disconnected public. By 2027, Iran will have approximately 10 million more people in poverty, a figure that could bring Iran’s overall poverty rate to 70 percent. Prolonging hardship for the Iranian public will not succeed in toppling Iran’s leaders or advancing U.S. objectives; the Iranian regime itself has proven adept at absorbing the costs of Western pressure, adapting its economy, and retaining nuclear leverage. America’s pressure-only policy only heightens the risk of a major Middle East war and thus should be discarded. The U.S. should instead reengage diplomatically with the Iranian regime toward the goal of stringent limits on Iranian nuclear capabilities in return for economic relief.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regime Change, Sanctions, Nuclear Power, Economy, Domestic Politics, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

409. How to Keep Resolution 2803 From Becoming a U.S.–Run Occupation

Author:: Carol Daniel-Kasbari
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza — adopted by the U.N. Security Council as Resolution 2803 — risks becoming yet another U.S.–run occupation. Coming on the heels of U.N. findings that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, the plan would place Washington at the center of a post-genocide mission. This brief lays out how the U.S. can avoid a quagmire by aligning implementation with genocide-prevention obligations, Palestinian self-determination, and a credible exit strategy. Resolution 2803 creates a U.S.–led Board of Peace as a transitional administration for Gaza, with a new international Stabilization Force, the ISF, under its umbrella, leaving Palestinian self-rule to a vague later “pathway.” This “interim” regime risks becoming “Oslo with helmets”: heavy on external control and light on rights. Without Palestinian co-ownership and a political horizon, such an arrangement is unlikely to succeed. It is more likely to fuel support for armed groups and to drag the U.S. into an indefinite security commitment it says it does not want. To avoid that outcome — and the resulting political blowback — this brief recommends that the U.S. use the tools it controls to reshape Resolution 2803 around three pillars: Post-genocide safeguards. Embed genocide-prevention and accountability into the mission’s mandate by requiring cooperation with the U.N. Commission of Inquiry and relevant international courts and by aligning any security assistance and arms transfers with prevention obligations. The U.S. cannot credibly send troops to protect Palestinians while continuing to arm the same campaign that devastated Gaza. Palestinian co-ownership. Allocate half of the Board of Peace’s votes to Palestinian representatives from national institutions and to Gaza-based municipal and civil society actors, and recognize the Palestinian executive committee as the core body for day-to-day governance. Any extension of the board and ISF beyond 2027 should require both a new Security Council vote and clear Palestinian consent. A rights-anchored transition and exit. Pair these institutional changes with a transition roadmap that goes beyond security indicators, including lifting movement and access restrictions, reopening crossings, rebuilding health and education systems, restoring due process, and creating civilian-protection mechanisms. Link this roadmap to halting settlement expansion and settler violence so Gaza’s transition is embedded in a broader shift away from permanent occupation. If President Trump ties his plan to enforceable benchmarks along these lines — and checks Israeli obstructionism rather than indulging it — the U.S. can help stabilize Gaza and secure a viable exit instead of inheriting an endless mission.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Genocide, United Nations, Occupation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

410. A U.S. Peace Plan for Ukraine

Author:: George Beebe
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: In advancing a peace settlement to resolve the Russia–Ukraine War, Washington must prioritize a concrete and detailed settlement to end this catastrophic conflict along terms that harmonize the vital, long-term interests of Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the United States. A ceasefire is unlikely, unless the outlines of such a settlement are reached beforehand. A peace settlement must address Ukrainian fears of future Russian aggression while simultaneously laying out a broader political framework that assuages Russia’s fears of strategic encirclement and international isolation. A successful settlement is possible along these lines: In exchange for the West and Ukraine’s acknowledgement that Ukraine will not be part of the NATO alliance, Russia accepts Ukraine’s eventual E.U. accession, contingent on the constitutional enshrinement of rights for the Russian minority in Ukraine and Ukraine’s postwar upholding of the democratic process. Russia accepts a Western–armed, trained, and maintained Ukrainian military force capable of deterring and defending against any new invasion (accompanied possibly by a ban on Ukraine’s possession of long-range missiles). In return, the United States should enter into talks with Russia on a new version of the New Strategic Arms Treaty, New START, as well as committing to a new version of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, INF. The United Nations mandates a comprehensive reconstruction fund for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets held by the European Union, including reconstruction in the Russian–occupied areas of Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia accept a ceasefire along the current territorial battlelines, establishing a de facto border in the four provinces of eastern Ukraine that will not be further changed by force or subversion. Once a broader political settlement has been established, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the U.S. accept a U.N. peacekeeping and monitoring force drawn from neutral Global South countries, to adjudicate a ceasefire line. The process of reaching a settlement will not be easy or quick and may require the exercise of U.S. leverage over Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. But such an accord could create security and stability for Ukraine and Europe more broadly, while also enabling U.S.–Russian detente and an eventual American military drawdown from Europe. Absent such a settlement, the war will continue to the detriment of Ukraine, placing its standing as a sovereign state — and its future integration within the European Union — in jeopardy.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

411. From Punishment to Denial: Stabilizing Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula

Author:: James Park
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: This brief argues for a more flexible, proactive, and credible approach to the U.S.–South Korea alliance’s deterrence vis-à-vis North Korea. The current punishment strategy is provocative and likely to be ineffective. We argue for pivoting to a strategy of “deterrence by denial” in response to North Korean uses of force short of invasion and nuclear attack (so-called “gray zone” aggression). The alliance’s strategy of “deterrence by punishment” should only be used as a last resort to deter a North Korean invasion or nuclear attack, and South Korea should also roll back its preemptive strike posture. Deterrence by denial aims to minimize the success of an act of aggression, building up defense capabilities and overall military resilience. Such an approach offers a level of flexibility, proportionality, and predictability that is not possible with deterrence by punishment and its strict threat of massive retaliation. Aspects of denial in the U.S.–South Korea alliance would include enhancing Seoul’s basing infrastructure and missile defense, reshaping the alliance’s joint exercises program to emphasize defensive functions, and a retaliatory posture based on proportionality. To maximize stability in their deterrence relationship with North Korea, the United States and South Korea should also vigorously pursue diplomacy and arms control negotiations, based on realistic goals and expectations that drop the demand for immediate North Korean denuclearization. While it would be the ideal long-term policy outcome, denuclearization is unrealistic as a near-term goal. Negotiations should instead center on tension reduction and arms control, aimed at lowering escalation risks and limiting North Korean nuclear capabilities and use. In return for North Korea accepting limits on its nuclear program, the United States and South Korea may offer sanctions relief initially and then further economic and political inducements, pending progress in arms control. Overall, the U.S.–South Korea alliance would benefit greatly from the more diverse set of policy tools associated with deterrence by denial, enhancing the alliance’s proactivity, assuaging North Korea’s existential fears of regime destruction, and strengthening the deterrent’s overall credibility. Combined with successful arms control negotiations, this new approach to deterrence would create a more durable foundation for stable coexistence on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

412. Trump Could Get a Win with North Korea This Time, by Taking Lessons from His First Term

Author:: Stephen Costello
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: All indications are that the Trump administration will once again pursue direct talks with North Korea. In doing so, it should learn from the mistakes of the failed 2018–19 U.S.–North Korea negotiations and seize the opportunity for a transformative nuclear agreement with Pyongyang. During the previous negotiations, it appears that North Korea offered ending the production of new nuclear weapons in exchange for civilian sanctions relief. In part due to the participation of hard-liners such as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, who were hostile to President Trump’s desire for a deal during his previous term, this offer was rejected and the talks failed. However, stopping the production of new fissile material, nuclear weapons, and long-range missiles would be highly beneficial to the United States and our allies and well worth ending nonmilitary sanctions. A similar deal should be pursued in new talks. Beyond the immediate benefits of ending the production of new weapons, such a deal could set up a diplomatic framework to address and diminish the North Korean nuclear arsenal over the long term. Building trust by concluding and adhering to an initial deal would be critical to any such effort. Adopted by the U.N. Security Council in 2016 and 2017, the current nonmilitary sanctions on North Korea amount to collective civilian punishment without any productive purpose. Rather than providing leverage, these sanctions have prevented diplomacy, intensifying Kim Jong Un’s intransigence and desire to further bolster his regime’s nuclear program. By lifting these nonmilitary sanctions, the Trump administration could chart a new path forward toward North Korean buy-in to the international nonproliferation regime, International Atomic Energy Agency inspections, and, possibly, the long-term goal of denuclearization. South Korea should be integrally involved from the planning stages to the deal’s signing and management. Such support will help to diffuse tensions with North Korea toward the long-term goal of peaceful coexistence on the Korean Peninsula. The United States should also seek Chinese backing of the deal, offering a credible guarantor of its implementation, while opening space for further U.S.–China nuclear diplomacy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

413. The Myth of the Monolith: The Latino Vote in U.S. Elections

Author:: María Teresa Kumar
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: María Teresa Kumar is the co-founder and President of Voto Latino, the nation’s largest Latino voter registration and youth advocacy organization. Under her leadership, Voto Latino has registered nearly 2 million voters, with 79 percent casting ballots. The organization has pioneered the use of technology, social media, and influencers to expand the Latino electorate in key battleground states and combat disinformation, reaching over 6 million Americans monthly. A recognized political strategist, Kumar has advised President Obama’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing and serves on the National Task Force on Election Crises. She is an Emmy-nominated MSNBC analyst and serves on the boards of Steve Madden, Emily’s List, and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. A first-generation Harvard Kennedy School graduate, she has been named among Bloomberg’s 100 Influential Latinos and Washingtonian’s Top Political Influencers.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Interview, and Latinos
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

414. The Politics of USAID

Author:: Cheryl Kamin
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Cheryl Kamin is a senior independent international health consultant. She most recently served as a Senior Infectious Disease Advisor (2018-2024) with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in the Bureau for Global Health’s Office of Infectious Diseases. She is a retired USAID Foreign Service Health Officer and has worked in the USAID Washington headquarters and overseas in USAID offices in Malawi, Russia, and Israel (working on the West Bank/Gaza portfolio). Kamin has extensive experience managing international maternal and child health programs and infectious disease prevention efforts focused on HIV/AIDS, TB, malaria, and emerging threats of global health security. Prior to serving as a Foreign Service Officer, Kamin worked with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. She was a Peace Corps volunteer in Niger and has a Master’s degree in Public Policy from the University of Michigan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, Interview, and USAID
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

415. El estado de la Unión Europea 2025

Author:: Francisco Aldecoa, Carlos Carnero, Enrique Ayala, José Candela, and Björn Hacker
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Europa afronta en el segundo cuarto del siglo xxi una transformación profunda del orden geopolítico y geoeconómico. A la comunidad internacional nacida de la postguerra hace 80 años le sucede la pretensión de potencias como Estados Unidos, China y Rusia de acabar con la naturaleza multilateral de un orden global que tiene como símbolo las Naciones Unidas y las instituciones de Bretton Woods. Se trata de sustituirlo por un orden nacionalista, aislacionista y proteccionista. En este Informe se estudia la forma en la que la Unión Europea ha de abordar retos importantes relacionados con ese cambio del orden global, así como las políticas internas que competen a la Unión, entre ellas la triple transformación digital, ecológica y social.
Topic:: Nationalism, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Inequality, Economy, Political Science, Protectionism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

416. The New Immigration Crackdown: Where Americans Stand

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Support for President Donald Trump’s handling of immigration has dropped 5 points among Americans since March 2025. Over four in ten Americans support Trump’s handling of immigration (43%), a decrease of 5 percentage points since March 2025. Support among Republicans has dipped from 90% to 86%. The steepest decline in support for Trump’s immigration agenda in the past few months — 11 points — comes from independents. Support has also declined by nearly 10 points among the youngest American adults (aged 18-29, from 41% to 32%) and seniors (65+, from 56% to 47%). Among Americans living in border states, approval of Trump’s handling of immigration has dropped from 42% to 33% since March. Increasing numbers of Americans in the past year support both a pathway to citizenship and allowing “Dreamers” to stay and gain legal status. Most Americans (60%) say that immigrants living in the United States illegally should be given a way to become citizens, provided they meet certain requirements, up from 56% last October. Among Republicans, support for a pathway to citizenship increased from 36% in 2024 to 40%; among Democrats, 77% to 82%. The increase in support for a path to citizenship was larger for independents, from 55% in 2024 to 61% this year. Support for allowing children brought illegally to the U.S. to gain legal resident status (known as DACA) increased from 52% in 2024 to 60% in 2025; support increased among Republicans, independents, and Democrats. Partisan divides remain stark on most of Trump’s immigration policies; yet such polarization is asymmetric, as independents’ views are more closely aligned with Democrats. Republicans and Democrats differ widely in their support for Trump’s immigration policies, ranging from whether undocumented immigrants should be arrested and detained if they have no criminal record, be detained in internment camps or deported to foreign prisons without due process, or whether U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers should be allowed to conceal their identities with masks or use unmarked vehicles. Independents, while not as strongly opposed to many of these policies undertaken or proposed by the Trump administration as Democrats, are still broadly opposed to such measures. Religion shapes views on immigration policies, with white Christians being more supportive of most of Trump’s immigration agenda than Christians of color, members of minority faith traditions, and the religiously unaffiliated. White evangelical Protestants hold the most consistently conservative positions on immigration policies: just 39% agree that immigrants, regardless of legal status, should have basic rights and protections, and 34% agree that ICE officers should not be allowed to conceal their identities; 57% agree that undocumented immigrants who have resided in the U.S. with no criminal record should be arrested and detained. While not as supportive of Trump’s immigration agenda as white evangelical Protestants, white Catholics and mainline/non-evangelical Protestants are consistently more supportive than other religious Americans and the religiously unaffiliated. Hispanic Protestants’ views on Trump’s more restrictive immigration policies are far more aligned with Hispanic Catholics than white Christians. Just three in ten Americans support Trump’s immigration agenda, according to PRRI’s newly developed immigration policy scale. PRRI developed a comprehensive scale combining responses to eight questions measuring support for eight of Trump’s immigration measures. Among those, three in ten favor Trump’s agenda, including one in ten Americans who strongly favor it. Two-thirds of Americans oppose Trump’s immigration agenda, including four in ten Americans who strongly oppose it. Americans who most trust far-right news (81%) and Fox News (71%), Republicans (63%), Christian nationalism Adherents (57%), and white evangelical Protestants (55%) are the most likely to strongly favor or favor Trump’s immigration agenda. Multivariate analysis shows which factors are best able to predict support for, or opposition to, Trump’s immigration agenda. Republicans, those with confidence in ICE, and those who view immigration as a critical issue are each at least twice as likely as their counterparts (Democrats, those without confidence in ICE, and those who do not see immigration as critical) to support Trump’s immigration agenda. Compared with religiously unaffiliated Americans, Hispanic Catholics and Hispanic Protestants are less likely to support Trump’s immigration policies once controlling for other factors. Christian nationalism Adherents, Sympathizers, and Skeptics are each twice as likely as Rejecters to support Trump’s immigration agenda. Americans who disagree that immigrants strengthen American society are about three times as likely to support Trump’s immigration policies as those who agree that immigrants strengthen American society. Similarly, believing that being born in America is important to being truly American is a strong predictor of support for Trump’s immigration agenda. Americans who are very concerned that their families will not be able to pay for housing and basic living expenses over the next year are less likely to support Trump’s immigration agenda.
Topic:: Immigration, Public Opinion, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

417. Trump’s Unprecedented Actions Deepen Asymmetric Divides

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Executive Summary Americans remain pessimistic about the country’s direction and the state of the country, with sharp partisan reversals since 2024. Six in ten Americans (62%) believe things in the country are going in the wrong direction, including most Democrats (92%) and independents (71%), compared with 24% of Republicans. In 2024, 94% of Republicans, 70% of independents, and 41% of Democrats said the same. While partisanship has always colored Americans’ outlook on the direction of the country, partisan polarization has dramatically increased on this measure over time. In 2011, during Obama’s presidency, 85% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats said the country was going in the wrong direction — a 31-point gap. Today, the 68-point gap between Republicans and Democrats represents an all-time high. Majorities of Americans say the economy (65%) and the ways the federal government is functioning (65%) or dealing with undocumented immigrants (57%) are headed in the wrong direction. Most Americans (60%) also say the way the U.S. is dealing with other countries is going in the wrong direction. Republicans rate these areas far more positively than Democrats and independents. Inflation remains a main concern among all Americans; among Republicans, immigration and crime are the top critical issues, while the protection of basic rights, the health of democracy, and health care are the top critical issues for Democrats and independents. Majorities of Americans across party lines rate increasing the cost of housing and everyday expenses as a critical issue, though Democrats and independents are roughly 10 points more likely to do so than Republicans. Aside from inflation, Republicans are most likely to rank immigration (56%) and crime (53%) as critical issues. Majorities of both Democrats and independents rate the protection of basic rights such as free speech (65% vs. 52%) and health care (64% vs. 52%) as critical issues. More than seven in ten Democrats (72%) rate the health of our democracy as a critical issue, an increase from 61% in 2024.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Inflation, Donald Trump, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

418. The Cape Assurance Corridor: Turning Maritime Security into a Regional Export for Southern Africa

Author:: Erika van der Merwe
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Red Sea insecurity has rerouted significant volumes of global trade around the Cape of Good Hope, shifting both demand and opportunity toward Southern Africa’s waters. The region can convert this diversion into a durable preference by offering an exportable public good in the form of assurance. This means delivering safe, predictable, and increasingly low‑carbon passage that insurers can price and operators can plan around. This brief proposes a SADC‑led Cape Corridor Assurance Framework that integrates existing regional centres with national Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) feeds to produce daily risk bulletins, incident metrics, and audited port KPIs in formats recognised by underwriters and Protection and Indemnity Clubs (P&I Clubs). A Clean‑Corridor Compliance Code with continuous automatic identification systems (AIS) for high‑risk calls, designated and monitored Ship-to-Ship (STS) zones, and beneficial‑ownership disclosures can help deter shadow‑fleets without penalising compliant traffic. Cable resilience should be treated as core corridor infrastructure through charted no-anchor/no-trawl areas, VTS integration, and pre-contracted rapid repair capabilities. Service reliability should be showcased through transparent KPI dashboards at Durban, Cape Town, and Ngqura, regularised offshore bunkering at Algoa Bay, and green-fuel bunkering at Saldanha and Walvis Bay, all under strict safety and environmental protocols. This package complements the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by standardising essential security and regulatory practices, while also endeavouring to respect national sovereignty through a minimum‑standards approach. In a world of geopolitical detours, the most profitable route is the one whose risks are visible, managed, and insurable. With pragmatic governance and disciplined execution, Southern Africa can make the Cape Corridor that route.
Topic:: Exports, Trade, Resilience, Shipping, Supply Chains, Instability, and Maritime Security
Political Geography:: Africa, Iran, Middle East, South Africa, and United States of America

419. Black Intergenerational Mobility, Libertarian Capitalism, and Authoritarian Government, 1877–1941: A Case Study

Author:: Patrick Mason
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: There are persistent multigenerational Black-white gaps in occupational attainment. These racial differences in intergenerational mobility are not caused by differences in family values and behavior (Mason, 2007). For three decades, I have gathered evidence on my family’s intergenerational transition from enslavement to present social and economic circumstances. Charles and Susan Rollins were 32 and 29 years-old, respectively, as enslavement ended in 1865. During Reconstruction, they accumulated wealth, established a successful dairy and other farming, helped found a church and religious organizations, helped found multiple civic organizations, served on boards affiliated with the local university and high school, were elected to County and State public office, had savings and bank accounts for the entire family, and were leaders among an extensive social network. Jim Crow in the South and anti-black racism in the north stymied upward mobility for the Rollins family for the three generations after Charles and Susan, despite the fact that their descendants obtained greater education than their ancestors, displayed a willingness to relocate 100s of miles away from their home, possessed a culture of achievement (hard work, future orientation, married couple families, etc.), were blessed with exceptional social capital, and, perhaps, the relative advantage of being mulattoes.
Topic:: Race, Authoritarianism, Capitalism, Slavery, Economic Mobility, Libertarianism, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

420. The Temporal Demands of Parental Child Care: Evidence from the American Time Use Survey

Author:: Nancy Folbre and Jooyeoun Suh
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Most research on parental time devoted to child care is based on survey questions regarding explicit care activities or co-presence of parents and children in the same room, factors clearly relevant to child development. Time spent keeping an eye and/or ear on young children while engaging in other activities deserves attention for a different reason—it represents an even larger constraint on maternal employment. Analysis of pooled time-diary data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) from 2004-2019 focuses on an underutilized question that asks respondents when own household children under the age of 13 were “in their care,” and shows that reported parental time likely devoted to supervision parental time likely devoted to supervision exceeds time devoted to active care by a factor of 2.9 and is more negatively related to maternal hours in paid employment. In-your-care time is an important indicator of the opportunity costs of motherhood, especially in low-income households unable to purchase or otherwise unable to obtain “babysitting” assistance.
Topic:: Economics, Women, Employment, Inequality, Time, Gender, and Child Care
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

421. The Impact of the War on Drugs on Union Density, 1973-2022

Author:: Michael J. Naples
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The War on Drugs (WoD) notoriously targeted poor people and communities, especially people of color. Its negative impact on the formation and defense of unions has only recently been studied. This paper explores the magnitude of the WoD’s role in increasing arrests and imprisonment, and its long shadow in probation and parole. It details the way it divided workers by race, and hammered the poor under the pretext of fighting drugs. Incorporating unemployment and manufacturing’s employment share, the paper shows that the WoD and the conservative turn it represented contributed substantially to the decline in union density.
Topic:: Race, War on Drugs, Prisons/Penal Systems, Unions, Incarceration, and Probation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

422. Stabilizing Cobalt Markets: A Price Floor for U.S. Minerals Security

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Achieving economic viability for minerals security is one of the most pressing hurdles facing U.S. minerals security objectives. While this challenge spans the entire critical minerals landscape, it is particularly acute for cobalt. Despite cobalt’s central role in both energy security and the defense industrial base, its market remains highly distorted in the critical minerals ecosystem. Prices have swung wildly over the past decade, driven less by supply-and-demand fundamentals than by strategic behavior, particularly persistent oversupply from People’s Republic of China (PRC) producers that dominate global mining, refining, and processing. Between May 2022 and May 2025, cobalt prices plunged 59.5 percent, falling from $41 to $16.62 per pound. This sharp decline coincided with China Molybdenum Company Limited (CMOC) nearly doubling its annual cobalt production in 2024, reaching record output levels despite market prices falling more than 60 percent. The surge in PRC output has pushed several Western operations out of the market. In 2022, Jervois opened the United States’ only cobalt mine in Idaho, only to shutter it that the following year as prices cratered. While cobalt prices have begun to show upward momentum after a long period of weakness, the benchmark price for refined cobalt remains around $22.30 per pound as of late November 2025. But this relief is fleeting. The DRC has already signaled that it will move away from an export ban—an action that will flood the market once again and put renewed downward pressure on cobalt prices. To avoid another collapse that forces non-PRC producers offline, the United States and its allies must move quickly to deploy price support mechanisms that keep Western mines operating and prevent the market from reverting to PRC dominance.
Topic:: Security, Markets, Supply Chains, Cobalt, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

423. The Depleting Missile Defense Interceptor Inventory

Author:: Wes Rumbaugh
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The prolific use of missiles and drones in the June 2025 war between Israel and Iran illustrated the growing role of these weapons in modern conflict. The significant expenditure of air and missile defense interceptors, especially by the United States, over the course of the 12-day conflict highlighted both the scarcity and importance of these critical military capabilities. Estimating interceptor inventories presents certain challenges, but examining the available budget data allows for a better contextualization around reported expenditure numbers. This data raises concerns about the inventory of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, in particular, suggesting the need to invest in additional capacity. Nevertheless, these investments must be coupled with measures to provide a more sustainable demand signal to industry if the goal is to build a more resilient and responsive industrial base for air and missile defense interceptors.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Drones, Missile Defense, Defense Spending, and Interceptors
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

424. Three Steps to Protect the United States Against Extreme Heat: A Report of the CSIS Alliance Working Group on Climate and Health

Author:: J. Stephen Morrison, Katherine E. Bliss, and Christina E. Zielke
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Extreme heat is becoming an urgent priority in the United States and beyond. The threat posed by extreme heat has become a matter of national security, impacting U.S. military readiness, while threatening economic growth, productivity, and global competitiveness. The negative health, social, and economic effects of extreme heat have become a common, lived experience among broad sectors of the American public, cutting across income, racial, ideological, and geographic lines. As extreme heat events have become more politically salient, they have raised popular expectations and prompted state, municipal, and local leaders, working in partnership with universities, community groups, businesses, and philanthropies, to seek pragmatic solutions that draw support across the partisan divide. In the fall of 2024, the CSIS Bipartisan Alliance for Global Health Security launched a working group to develop policy recommendations for addressing climate-related health challenges that have implications for national security. The working group argues that three actions lay the foundation of a strategy to better protect Americans, strengthen preparedness, and protect U.S. national interests: the launch of a high-level bipartisan panel, the establishment of a data consortium, and the strengthening of essential core federal functions. In combination, these measures will make the United States stronger, more secure, and more prosperous.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, National Security, Infectious Diseases, Global Health, and Heat
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

425. Identifying Pathways for U.S. Shipbuilding Cooperation with Northeast Asian Allies

Author:: Henry H. Carroll and Cynthia R. Cook
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Military conflict in the Indo-Pacific would demand overwhelming U.S. naval power. Yet the shipbuilding sector faces capacity shortages, industrial base constraints, cost overruns, and delayed delivery, suggesting that Washington should explore alternative pathways for delivering naval capability. One approach is to enhance cooperation with close allies such as Japan and South Korea. Options for cooperation include allied participation in maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO); allied purchase and revitalization of U.S. shipyards; various methods of coproduction, including modular construction; and U.S. purchase of allied-built ships. Novel strategies that leverage the United States’ strong and unique network of allies and partners will require thoughtful implementation of industrial cooperation policy, which has historically been challenging. For the United States to strike the right balance between leaning on its allies and partners to alleviate its shipbuilding problems and investing in its own capabilities at home—for these approaches are not mutually exclusive—it should understand the implications of its various cooperative options with its allies.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Navy, Defense Industry, and Shipbuilding
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, Korea, and United States of America

426. A New Era in Health Security: A Call to Action from the CSIS Bipartisan Alliance for Global Health Security

Author:: J. Stephen Morrison, Michaela Simoneau, Katherine E. Bliss, Enoh T. Ebong, Elizabeth Cameron, and Paul Friedrichs
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The CSIS Bipartisan Alliance for Global Health Security has evaluated the policy changes unfolding in the past several months as a new era in national, economic, and health security begins. This call to action is an appeal to the administration and Congress to protect and strengthen investments in health security programs, which make Americans safer, stronger, and more prosperous. The first order of business is to restore confidence and trust in health security policies and their execution. To that end, the alliance calls on the administration and Congress to (1) stabilize and modernize core health security capabilities; (2) secure and sustain U.S. leadership in science and biomedical research; and (3) accelerate innovations in financing that enable efficient, effective, and accountable health security investments. Together, these actions will ensure Americans remain protected, U.S. innovation remains competitive, and U.S. government programming is more efficient and sustainable going forward, assured of strong support among Americans.
Topic:: Infectious Diseases, Global Health, and Health Security
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

427. Friendshoring Copper: A New Pillar of the U.S.-Brazilian Economic Partnership

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran, Meredith Schwartz, and Bryan Harris
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Brazil holds some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals, including niobium, rare earths, graphite, manganese, bauxite, zinc, and lithium. However, the next frontier is copper, which now accounts for one-third of all mineral exploration investment in the country. Market enthusiasm for Brazil’s copper aligns with a global outlook in which copper demand is projected to nearly double by 2035. China has already secured a strong foothold in Brazil’s mining ecosystem through trade agreements, concessional financing, and infrastructure investments. By contrast, the United States remains in the early stages of building a minerals partnership with Brazil. Unlocking Brazil’s potential as a major copper producer—and securing U.S. access to this strategic metal—will require bilateral efforts. Brazil must strengthen geological mapping, expand infrastructure, and streamline its overly bureaucratic permitting system. On the U.S. side, deploying strategic financing, promoting vertical supply chain integration, and offering targeted tariff exemptions to advance national and economic security objectives will be critical to a successful partnership.
Topic:: Economics, Partnerships, Mining, Trade, Economic Security, Copper, and Friendshoring
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

428. Left-Wing Terrorism and Political Violence in the United States: What the Data Tells Us

Author:: Daniel Byman and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: In recent years, the United States has seen an increase in the number of left-wing terrorism attacks and plots, although such violence has risen from very low levels and remains much lower than historical levels of violence carried out by right-wing and jihadist attackers. So far, 2025 marks the first time in more than 30 years that left-wing terrorist attacks outnumber those from the violent far right. Despite its decline this year, right-wing terrorism could easily return to previous high levels. It is important to resource counterterrorism efforts against both right- and left-wing terrorism and work with communities to gain their support against extremists. Leaders across the political spectrum must condemn violent extremism of all kinds, denying it legitimacy and reducing its appeal.
Topic:: Political Violence, Terrorism, Leftist Politics, and Data
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

429. Community Insights on Weather-Induced Energy Insecurity: A Case Study of Extreme Heat and Power Outages in North Lawndale, Chicago

Author:: Qëndresa Krasniqi, Helen Yibrah, and Rachel Scheu
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Extreme heat and power outages are two growing climate-driven threats that endanger the health and safety of vulnerable households and communities. Heat waves are among the deadliest natural hazards in the United States, and they are becoming more frequent, longer lasting, and more intense. Power outages, also on the rise, compound the risks posed by heat waves. These threats not only intersect, they also disproportionately impact communities with high economic, health, and social vulnerability—many of which have been shaped by a legacy of structural discrimination. The US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that Black residents are 40% more likely to live in areas with higher mortality rates from rising temperatures than non-Black residents. This report, part of the Energy Opportunity Lab at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, explores how residents of North Lawndale, a predominantly Black and historically under-resourced neighborhood on Chicago’s West Side, experience the compounded effects of heat waves and power outages. With rates of chronic health issues, poverty, unemployment, and energy burden (the percentage of income used to pay energy bills) well above state averages, North Lawndale contends with more frequent and longer outages as well as greater barriers to coping with extreme heat compared to wealthier neighborhoods in Chicago. By sharing concerns expressed by local residents during a focus group discussion, this report adds community voices to existing research on weather-induced energy insecurity to ensure that the experiences of affected people are better understood by policymakers weighing reform options. Participants described significant impacts from outages—from trauma and food loss to isolation and disruption of caregiving responsibilities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Security, Heat, and Power Outages
Political Geography:: North America, Chicago, and United States of America

430. Maternal and Child Mortality: How Do U.S. States Compare Internationally?

Author:: Evan D. Gumas, Munira Z. Gunja, and Irene Papanicolas
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: In the United States, the risk of dying from pregnancy-related causes is more than four times higher for someone giving birth in Louisiana than in California, and a child born in Mississippi is nearly three times more likely to die before age 5 than a child in Massachusetts. National averages can obscure this dramatic variation, much of which stems from state-level policy choices around Medicaid, reproductive health, hospital regulation, and social welfare, among others. To examine variations within the U.S., this brief compares maternal and child mortality rates at the national, state, and racial and ethnic level to 200 countries. Comparing disaggregated U.S. rates to nations with similar population sizes and economies can illuminate how different policy environments shape health outcomes. Historically, states that invest more in health coverage, reproductive care, and social protections tend to have better health outcomes, in some cases on par with high-income countries, while states that invest less and pass more restrictive policies have outcomes similar to low- and middle-income or politically unstable countries.1 Disaggregating by race and ethnicity is critical for a full picture of maternal and child mortality in the U.S. as state and national mortality rates often mask worse outcomes for Black, American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN), and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) communities. This brief draws on data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), national registries, the World Health Organization (WHO), and the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) (see “How We Conducted This Study” for more details).
Topic:: Race, Public Health, Child Mortality, Disparity, and Maternal Mortality
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

431. Five Key Decisions to Revitalize US Critical Mineral Stockpiles

Author:: Tom Moerenhout, Cina Vazir, and Irina Patrahau
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The United States is at a pivotal moment to modernize its approach to critical mineral stockpiling. Minerals are increasingly central to American strategic interests, yet the US remains heavily reliant on foreign suppliers, particularly China, for processed materials. This dependency exposes the US to major vulnerabilities in national, economic, and climate security. The National Defense Stockpile (NDS) can be a key policy lever to reduce these vulnerabilities. At present, however, the NDS is underfunded, covering only a fraction of projected needs in a national emergency. It also may not be realizing its potential to address underlying market failures that threaten US economic interests in addition to its historical defense role. This report, part of the Critical Materials Initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, finds that an economic stockpile with market-shaping quantities of material may cost more than six times the amount of a defense-oriented stockpile. It is therefore important to integrate stockpiling choices into the wider array of policy options, analyzing whether a stockpile is the most efficient tool to address the specific market failure at hand for each material and transaction. The report outlines five foundational choices if a stockpiling strategy is adopted, as bipartisan support suggests is possible, and offers related recommendations for US policymakers designing such a system.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, Critical Minerals, and Stockpiling
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

432. A World Adrift: Reordering and New Pathways of Cooperation

Author:: Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Global governance is under severe strain as geopolitical conflicts, climate risks, pandemics, technological disruptions, and widening inequalities unfold amid the United States’ retrenchment from the international arena and China’s assertiveness in global affairs. A more pluralistic global landscape is emerging where new and old institutions coexist. Regional and middle powers, including groupings like ASEAN, can shape a more stable and cooperative order through inclusive, rules-based frameworks that strengthen resilience and revitalise multilateralism.
Topic:: Governance, Geopolitics, Institutions, ASEAN, Regional Power, and Middle Power
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

433. After the American Retreat: How Southeast Asia Can Seize its Climate Future

Author:: Adam Hansen and Pey Peili
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s aggressive rollback of US climate policy has left a global void. Yet, for Southeast Asia, this is not just a crisis but a catalyst. By leveraging critical minerals to sustain US engagement and through strengthening ties with new partners, the region can forge a resilient, independent green path.
Topic:: Climate Change, Partnerships, Donald Trump, Critical Minerals, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:: North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

434. Deterioration of relations between the US and India

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The imposition by Donald Trump’s administration of 50% tariffs on goods from India, a tightened migration policy, as well as the strengthening of US cooperation with Pakistan, have all led to the most serious crisis in Indian-American relations in 25 years. Although both sides will try to ease tensions and return to normal cooperation, the shift in US policy has undermined India's trust in the US. As a result, India will be more willing to cooperate with other partners, including the BRICS countries. It will be important for the EU to strengthen its cooperation with India in order to try to prevent a deeper anti-Western drift in Indian policy.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Donald Trump, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

435. The political scene in Israel a year before the Knesset elections

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2026 will be the first chance for Israeli political forces to renew their social mandate since the Gaza Strip war began. Polls show that Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition may lose its majority. This could prompt the government to use foreign policy more for electoral purposes. The opposition’s chances depend on how well it consolidates and how effective the new parties' messages are. External influences on the campaign, especially from the US, will likely intensify.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Knesset, Parliament, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

436. Energy Derussification of Poland's Visegrad Partners

Author:: Łukasz Ogrodnik and Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: While Czechia has moved away from importing Russian energy resources, Hungary and Slovakia remain the most dependent EU countries. As a result of EU and US sanctions against Russia, both countries will have to make efforts to reduce this dependence. This prospect represents an opportunity for Poland to deepen cooperation in its role as a provider of energy security.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Visegrad Group, Energy, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, United States of America, and Czechia

437. Brazil Faces Mounting Pressure from the United States

Author:: Mateusz Piotrowski and Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: A political motivation was the main driver of the U.S. measures against Brazil and its authorities in July and August, as President Donald Trump tried to protect former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro from criminal charges of plotting a coup d’état. The Trump administration responded to Bolsonaro’s conviction on 11 September with new threats and additional sanctions. The Brazilian government will intensify its attempts at dialogue with the U.S. and seek support from other BRICS+ members, among other partners, and assistance for domestic industries affected by the punitive U.S. tariffs. The conflict with the United States will influence the course of the campaign ahead of next year’s general elections in Brazil.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Elections, Tariffs, Coup, Donald Trump, BRICS, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

438. U.S. Implements "Reciprocal" Tariffs, Significantly Altering Foreign Trade Conditions

Author:: Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: After a suspension period, the so-called reciprocal tariffs came into force on 7 August, establishing new conditions for trade between the U.S. and its partners. This will increase predictability in international trade, but will also likely weaken global economic growth. The diversity and complexity of the regulations may hinder their implementation and undermine the principles of international trade within the WTO system.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Economic Growth, Tariffs, and WTO
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

439. U.S. Fosters Rwanda-Congo Peace Deal for Mineral Rights

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: On 27 June in Washington, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda signed a peace agreement, reached under U.S. auspices. It is based on a “security for minerals” formula. Although it carries the promise of development by linking the economies of the DRC, Rwanda, and the U.S. in the extractive sector, the chances of its full implementation are slim.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Extractive Industries, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa, Rwanda, United States of America, and Congo

440. Development cooperation at a tipping point: how, why and through what mechanisms do policy norms break?

Author:: Andy Sumner and Stephan Klingebiel
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper applies the concepts and theories of “policy norms” to the disruptive effects of the second Trump administration on global development cooperation. We argue that recent US actions represent more than a domestic political shift. They signal a tipping point to longstanding norms of the development cooperation system and specifically multilateralism as well as notions of global solidarity. This paper's objective is to explain how, why and through which political and institutional mechanisms policy norms break down or are reconstituted in global development cooperation. It uses the current moment as a case study of “norm antipreneurship”, potentially even “norm imperialism” illustrating the political and institutional strategies through which policy norms are currently being contested, dismantled or displaced. This paper addresses a set of questions: (i) What are the core mechanisms through which development cooperation norms are formed, contested and fragmented? (ii) How is the second Trump administration seeking to reshape normative regimes in development cooperation? (iii) What research agenda is needed to understand norm change in a multipolar and contested development cooperation landscape?
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Multilateralism, Donald Trump, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

441. China Facing Domestic Economic Challenges and Trade War with the U.S.

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: A session of China’s parliament in March confirmed that the main source of the country’s economic growth in 2025 is to be state-supported industrial production, including the development of the high-tech sector, along with increasing domestic consumption and exports. The shape of China’s economic policy will be influenced by, among other things, the course of the trade conflict with the United States. For the EU, China’s economic plans imply the need to further protect the single market and increase competitiveness.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Growth, Trade Wars, and Industry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

442. Up against Trump, Canada's unlikely European destiny

Author:: André Gattolin
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Caught up in the offensive launched last December by Donald Trump against his northern neighbour, Canadians are now grappling with existential questions, leading them to rethink the ties that have bound them to the United States until now. America's ‘betrayal’ has prompted the country to question its real sovereignty and its future place in a disrupted world order. As a direct consequence of this upheaval, Europe is the focus of renewed interest within Canadian society. But is it a credible alternative to Canada's excessive dependence on its neighbour? Is it conceivable that the country could one day join the European Union? If not, what paths could lead to a shared future between these two major entities of the Western world? Since 29 November 2024, Donald Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to annex Canada and make it the 51st state of the United States. What initially appeared to be mere bluster on the part of the White House occupant quickly turned into a real threat with the immediate enactment of coercive customs and border measures. Once the initial shock had passed, a genuine wave of spontaneous and peaceful revolt quickly swept across the country. The boycott of American products and retail chains, as well as mass cancellation of planned trips to the United States were the first signs of this. Far from being short-lived, this defiance seems to be here to stay. According to a recent survey, two-thirds of Canadians continue to reduce their purchases of American goods, and 70% now prefer products of Canadian origin [1].
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Transatlantic Relations, and Boycott
Political Geography:: Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

443. Facing New Migration Realities: U.S.-Mexico Relations and Shared Interests

Author:: Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, Doris Meissner, and Andrew Selee
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Migration patterns in the Western Hemisphere have changed considerably in just a few years, with large numbers of migrants from dozens of countries across the Americas and around the world traveling through the region. Many hoped to reach the United States, but others have remained within Latin America and the Caribbean. These shifting realities pushed many countries to deepen collaboration on migration management. No country has been more critical to U.S. border enforcement efforts than Mexico, which at times in 2024 recorded more migrant encounters in its territory than the U.S. Border Patrol did at the southwest border every month. Mexican policies have been central catalysts for sustained reductions in unauthorized migration at the U.S.-Mexico border that began in 2024 and have continued under the countries’ new administrations. Whether and in what form collaboration between the two countries will continue now rests in the hands of the administrations of U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. This policy brief provides an account of shifts in unauthorized migration and humanitarian protection trends in recent years, and the role the U.S.-Mexico relationship has played—and will continue to play—in responding to critical migration challenges. It examines the shift from burgeoning hemispheric cooperation on migration to a U.S. strategy based on large-scale deportations and threatened tariffs. The analysis was informed by in-depth interviews and roundtable discussions with U.S. and Mexican policymakers, researchers, and representatives of international and civil-society organizations.
Topic:: Migration, Bilateral Relations, Law Enforcement, Employment, Trafficking, Borders, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

444. AI Standard Choices Under Geopolitical Competition

Author:: Sangjun Yea
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study examines how global competition over artificial intelligence (AI) standards is unfolding amid growing geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. It develops a theoretical model to analyze how a third country decides whether to align its domestic AI standard with the U.S. or Chinese framework once both standards exist. The analysis highlights that the choice depends primarily on global and local network effects, market competition, and the role of domestic platforms intermediating AI services. The findings suggest that the technological superiority of foundation AI models and the expanding global user base are key determinants of international standards adoption, implying that AI standardization has become a strategic domain of global economic and political competition.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

445. Making Preschool Classroom Assessments Work for Dual Language Learners

Author:: Katherine Habben, Victoria Kim, and Lorena Mancilla
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: To effectively support the growth and learning of young children in their care, early childhood educators need to understand and be able to monitor the progress these children are making toward important milestones. Developmentally appropriate assessment practices are often used for such purposes with children whose home language is English, but for Dual Language Learners (DLLs)—young children who have at least one parent who speaks a language other than English at home—such practices are often a poor fit. Many widely used assessment tools and practices are not designed to account for their cultural and linguistic backgrounds, even though DLLs now comprise one-third of all children ages 0–5 in the United States. These assessments’ frequent reliance on English language proficiency and emphasis of mainstream cultural norms to gauge children’s learning and development can result in inaccurate measures of DLLs’ abilities and thereby lead to faulty conclusions about their developmental progress and educational needs. Federal policies and frameworks such as the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) and the Head Start Early Learning Outcomes Framework acknowledge the importance of linguistically appropriate assessment. Similarly, national organizations such as the National Association for the Education of Young Children have offered guidance on developmentally appropriate practices in diverse settings. While efforts such as these provide a strong foundation, they lack specific requirements or actionable steps that would help ensure widespread adoption and implementation of appropriate assessment tools and practices for DLLs. Several states, including California, Colorado, Illinois, and Oregon, have gone a step further and introduced early learning standards and assessment tools that reflect DLL needs. These initiatives represent meaningful progress toward effective assessment of all young children; however, they have not yet been widely or consistently implemented even within these states’ systems.
Topic:: Education, Children, Immigrants, Language, and Integration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

446. Breaking the Cycle of Dysfunction at the U.S. Immigration Courts

Author:: Kathleen Bush-Joseph, Doris Meissner, and Muzaffar Chishti
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: With 3.8 million deportation cases pending, the U.S. immigration courts are in crisis, and both administrative and legislative reforms are urgently needed to transform the system. The Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR), the Justice Department agency that houses the immigration courts and their appellate body, the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA), has tried to modernize and speed up case completions. Yet in recent years, the filing of millions of new removal (deportation) cases and asylum applications from recent border arrivals have layered new pressure upon long-standing challenges and overwhelmed the courts. Consequently, it takes an average of four years for noncitizens to receive an asylum hearing, and a final decision can take much longer with appeals. These delays undermine the goals of the U.S. asylum and immigration enforcement systems: to determine who is eligible to stay in the United States, and to order those who are ineligible to depart or be removed in a timely manner. To understand how the courts have reached this point, this policy brief provides an overview of former President Joe Biden’s policies at the immigration courts as well as the initial actions of President Donald Trump’s second administration. Since retaking office, Trump has announced a number of new policies restricting access to asylum and rescinding other protections from deportation, while speeding the adjudication of removal cases. But his mass deportation campaign has also led to the filing of many new removal cases as immigration officers seek to arrest thousands of noncitizens per day.
Topic:: Immigration, Courts, Donald Trump, Deportation, Joe Biden, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

447. International Student Mobility: A Post-Pandemic Reset or a Broader Challenge?

Author:: Elizabeth Collett
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: International education has become a huge market, estimated to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars per year. Tertiary-level institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada continue to draw large numbers of international students, but other destination countries have also entered the mix. And while Chinese and Indian nationals are among the largest groups of international students, enrollment is growing from countries as varied as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Brazil. Yet after years of recruitment and growth, during which attracting international students was seen as an unalloyed good—for university research budgets, local economies, and knowledge circulation—attitudes are shifting in some major destination countries. The post-COVID-19 pandemic rebound in international student arrivals has raised concerns about their impact on already strained housing markets and led some governments to take steps to limit admissions. But this focus may obscure broader questions about the sustainability of rising numbers, some universities’ reliance on international student tuition, and whether international education is in fact helping countries meet critical skills needs. This Transatlantic Council on Migration report outlines important considerations for governments seeking to answer these questions. It provides an overview of recent developments in the international education sector and explores policy levers that can be used to shape demand for international study, the form learning opportunities take, and how they can be smartly aligned with future labor market needs.
Topic:: Immigration, Economic Mobility, Students, and International Education
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and United States of America

448. All in for a Thriving Connecticut: Opportunities to Support Upward Mobility for the State’s Immigrant Families

Author:: Margie McHugh, Julia Gelatt, Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, Katherine Habben, Jacob Hofstetter, and Julie Sugarman
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Immigrants and their children are a vital part of Connecticut’s present and its future. Comprising 15 percent of the state's residents, immigrants have driven all population and workforce growth over the last decade and a half. In addition, about 30 percent of Connecticut children are part of immigrant families. Most immigrants in the state, as in the country overall, are successful and self-sufficient. However, many face periodic economic challenges, and most immigrants can benefit from integration support in their first several years in the United States. With an eye to the state’s future vitality, this report focuses on key state policies and services that aim to support upward mobility for all Connecticut families, examining ways in which they meet the needs of low-income immigrants and their children and how they might more effectively do so. Drawing on interviews with state and local actors, the study considers the following issue areas: adult education and workforce development, housing, low-wage workers, health care and social assistance, small businesses, immigration legal services, K-12 education, and early childhood services. The study also highlights opportunities to improve statewide coordination on immigrant integration and immigration policy issues.
Topic:: Education, Immigrants, Language, Social Mobility, and Adult Education
Political Geography:: North America, United States of America, and Connecticut

449. Behind the Scenes: Mapping How State and Local Governments Implement Language Access Measures

Author:: Jacob Hofstetter and Alexis Fintland
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Across the United States, a growing number of states, counties, cities, and individual agencies within state and local governments are developing language access measures. These measures aim to ensure that individuals with limited proficiency in English—of whom there were more than 27 million in 2023—can access public information and services for which they are eligible, such as through the use of interpreters, multilingual staff, and translation of written documents. The proliferation of language access measures reflects both longstanding obligations under federal civil rights law and regulations and a practical acknowledgment that state and local governments need to be able to effectively communicate with all members of the communities they serve. This report offers one of the first in-depth examinations of how state and local governments and their component agencies design, implement, and sustain language access measures. Drawing from interviews with state and local government staff, the study finds that while there is no one-size-fits-all approach for implementing language access, there are many lessons that can be learned from efforts to date and strategies that governments can adapt to their own contexts, needs, and capacities.
Topic:: Immigration, Language, Integration, Local Government, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

450. Assessing the impact of US funding cuts on communities and humanitarian response: Case studies from South Sudan and Mali

Author:: ALNAP
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: The report examines two country contexts – Mali and South Sudan – which both combine a strong prior presence of US funding, active humanitarian coordination structures and acute levels of needs. The findings shed light on how funding fluctuations influence humanitarian access, service delivery and community coping mechanisms, offering a crucial perspective on resource-driven shifts in the aid system from the perspective of both implementing actors and communities.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, USAID, Humanitarian Assistance, and Aid Cuts
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, South Sudan, and United States of America

451. When the Facts Change: The Future of the Global Monetary System

Author:: Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: This paper considers possible futures for the international monetary system in light of recent economic and political events in the United States and globally. It contrasts scenarios pre- and post-inauguration of the second Trump administration. Earlier scenarios foresaw very gradual rebalancing of the international monetary system away from post-Bretton Woods dollar-centric international financial architecture. Recent developments have pointed toward the possibility of a more abrupt shift away from a system centred on the dollar and the US correspondent banking system. The paper considers economic, financial, geopolitical and technological considerations bearing on possible futures.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Geopolitics, and Dollar
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

452. ‘King Makers And The King Breakers’ Perspectives On The Role Of Intelligence Services In Shaping Geo-Politics And Power Dynamics At Global Level.

Author:: Matthew Mare
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The goal of the research was to demonstrate the role of the intelligence service as king makers and king breakers shape geo-politics and power dynamics at global level. The theory by Kent was the fulcrum of this research and the CIA-BRICS power dynamics were cited to bring the nexus between intelligence service and the geo-politics are at play in shaping world events. The background to the interaction between intelligence service and geo-politics was well articulated. The study relied on secondary data sources and the research went on to formulate applied theory of intelligence in global power dynamics. The study noted that, world over and western world in particular the intelligence service is the fulcrum of making and breaking kings. The major findings of the study were that countries which politicize intelligence for personal glory suffers from external interference and political convulsions than those that differentiate the two. It was also noted that, the CIA play an important role in the American foreign policy by shaping and creating the future the country, for the USA to remain a unipolar giant. The study observed that the intelligence is objective in a stable and mature democracy than in autocratic political environment. It was noted that, most countries think of security interms of military hardware and overlook intelligence. In mature democracies intelligence conduct covert and overt operations to safeguard national interests over interests and vice versa in non-democratic states. In nondemocratic states the diplomatic missions are packed with political opponents, it is a political way of dealing with perceived political opponents to the leader. Whereas in mature democracy, diplomatic missions are packed with declared and undeclared intelligence officers to push the national agenda. The study created applied Kentism in foreign policy. The study made several permutations in the global arena on how the intelligence will make and make kings through direct interference, regime change, assassinations, destabilizing weaker states, induced coups, discrediting states through NGOs and CSOs and hybrid warfare to achieve the Western interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Intelligence, Geopolitics, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Strategic Interests, and Power Dynamics
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

453. Cutting Through the Tangled Webs of Civil and Military Aviation Toward a Practical Cybersecurity Framework

Author:: Kristen Csenkey and Jason Furlong
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: North American defence and security require trusted partnerships to detect, deter, and defeat threats from foreign adversaries. The United States and Canada cooperate through the North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) organization to build a layered network of defence that jointly enhances operational capabilities with a traditional emphasis on the air domain. However, as the aviation ecosystem becomes increasingly digitized and interconnected, it is essential that strategic and high-level policy decisions be supported with the necessary conceptual tools to keep the skies safe. We propose that one way to deepen cooperation in aviation cybersecurity is through the integration of a human-centric framework. In this article, we introduce, define, and contextualize our Inter-Organization Learning Culture Framework for policy-makers and academics alike. The integration of this framework has implications for NORAD in terms of cooperation, modernization initiatives, and the continued protection of the interlinked civil and defence aviation ecosystems.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Cybersecurity, Aviation, and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD)
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

454. The Evolution of Japan's Limited Sovereignty: From the Era of Unequal Treaties to the Japan-U.S. Alliance

Author:: Yukio Sakurai
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This paper examines the evolution of Japan's limited sovereignty across two distinct historical periods: the nineteenth-century era of unequal treaties and the post– World War II era shaped by the Japan–U.S. alliance. In the earlier period, treaties imposed by Western powers curtailed Japan’s jurisdictional and tariff autonomy. Paradoxically, these constraints catalysed rapid modernisation and a national drive to restore sovereign equality. In contrast, the post-war period introduced a different model of limited sovereignty: one characterised by strategic dependence through the Japan–U.S. Security Treaty and the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). These legal arrangements grant the United States significant military rights on Japanese territory, including base maintenance and jurisdictional authority, raising ongoing concerns about Japan’s territorial and legal autonomy. Further tensions arise from the opaque operation of the Japan–U.S. Security Consultative Committee, whose limited transparency and perceived imbalance in representation have prompted criticism regarding undue U.S. influence. Evolving regional security dynamics and potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy further complicate Japan’s sovereignty posture. Additionally, growing secrecy surrounding national security and the technical nature of defence policy hinder public deliberation and raise broader questions about democratic accountability. Employing an interdisciplinary framework that draws from international law, political science, and history, this study analyses the legal instruments and socio-political contexts that shaped these two periods. By comparing externally imposed and internally accepted constraints on sovereignty, the paper contributes to a deeper understanding of how nations negotiate autonomy within global power structures. This analysis, grounded in a comprehensive review of English and Japanese scholarship, offers a nuanced perspective on Japan’s evolving relationship with limited sovereignty and its implications for democratic governance and strategic positioning in East Asia.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

455. Implications of Military Aid on Global Arms Sales and Productio

Author:: Zekeri Momoh
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This study examines the implications of increasing military aid on arms sales and production. This study adopted the historical research design, with data collected from secondary sources, and content analysis was used for its analysis. The study argues that increasing military aid to especially belligerent states has influenced global arms sales and production. It equally argues that the consequences of the cumulative military aid to Israel and Ukraine include human rights violations, humanitarian crisis, growth in arms production, increasing military budgets and revenue for arms manufacturers, among others. Nevertheless, justifications of the military aid are to ensure the survival of the state and its sovereignty, as well as the survival of the political regime. Lastly, this study recommends, among other things, that the United Nations Security Council should employ a more democratic approach to the ongoing Israel-Gaza war and Russia-Ukraine war to produce a win-win outcome for the interests of international peace and security, as against the interests of conflict profiteers from military aid.
Topic:: Military Aid, War, Arms Sales, and International Security
Political Geography:: United States of America, Ukraine, Israel, Middle East, Europe, and North America

456. Liberty, Affect, and The Rise of Populism

Author:: Colin Anthony MacNairn
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: In this essay, I reinterpret Hartley B. Alexander’s early 20th-century account of liberty and democracy in light of the 21st-century populist resurgence, integrating the economic analysis of Jonathan Hopkin and Mark Blyth. By combining Alexander’s concerns surrounding the ethical collapse of democratic citizenship with Hopkin and Blyth’s diagnosis of structural economic disenfranchisement, I construct a dual account of populism’s rise as the convergence of moral atrophy and institutional decay. From Trump’s America to Modi’s India, populism emerges as a liberty weaponised against itself. I argue that populism is a condition wherein the form of democracy is preserved, but its substance is debased, thereby reduced to spectacle, demagoguery, and institutional dysfunction. Drawing on specific examples and institutional analysis, I further argue for a reconstruction of liberty grounded in moral formation and institutional responsiveness, thus offering a normative pathway beyond the populist condition.
Topic:: Economics, Ethics, Populism, Liberty, and Political Philosophy
Political Geography:: India, South America, North America, and United States of America

457. U.S. Military Aid to Israel During a Genocide in Gaza with Josh Paul ( Episode 36)

Author:: Sahar Aziz and Josh Paul
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Sahar Aziz speaks with Josh Paul about the law, politics, and policies surrounding the United States decades long military aid to Israel and specifically how such aid makes the U.S. complicit in Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza since October 2023. Josh Paul resigned from the State Department due to his disagreement with the Biden Administration’s decision to rush lethal military assistance to Israel in the context of its war on Gaza. He had previously spent over 11 years working as a Director in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, which is responsible for U.S. defense diplomacy, security assistance, and arms transfers. He previously worked on security sector reform in both Iraq and the West Bank, with additional roles in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Army Staff, and as a Military Legislative Assistant for a Member of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee. he is a recipient of the 2023 Callaway Award for Civic Courage and 2024 MedGlobal Award for Courage. Currently, Josh Paul serves as the co-founder of a New Policy, an organization dedicated to transforming American foreign policy toward Israel/Palestine to reflect American values and foundational principles of liberty, equality, democracy, and human rights. At the time of the conversation in late May 2025, Israel’s bombings and targeted assassinations in Gaza of doctors, journalists, and professors had killed over 65,000 Palestinians including more than 18,000 children and injured over 150,000 Palestinians. Israel’s military has destroyed every university. Its military fully destroyed more than 70% of hospitals, and partially destroyed the remaining 30 percent, resulting in an unknown number of Palestinians dying from otherwise treatable diseases and injuries. For 11 months in the spring of 2025, Israel banned the entry of all humanitarian aid and food into Gaza as part of an intentional mass starvation campaign that has caused unprecedented severe malnutrition for tens of thousands of Palestinian children. The devastation that Israel has wreaked upon the 2.3 million Palestinians trapped in Gaza – as collective punishment for Hamas’ militant attacks and war crimes on October 7, 2023 – so extensive that even supporters of Israel are acknowledging the genocidal nature of Isreal’s military campaign. Such violence inflicted upon a helpless civilian population would not have been possible without $20 billion in military aid from the United States of America since October 2023 – all funded by American taxpayers. Listen to the conversation about the policies and practice of U.S. arms exports to Israel that has become a permanent stain on U.S. foreign policy and undermined the rule of law internationally.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Genocide, Humanitarian Aid, Military Aid, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

458. Hindutva in America: A Threat to Equality and Religious Pluralism (6/16/2025)

Author:: Dheepa Sundaram
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Join us for an analysis of the groundbreaking report "Hindutva in America: A Threat to Equality and Religious Pluralism issued by the Rutgers Center for Security, Race and Rights." Hindutva is a transnational far-right political ideology grounded in Hindu supremacy with a growing following in the United States. Hindutva advocates undermine American pluralism and spread hate against Muslims, Sikhs and other minority groups within American society. To be sure, Hindutva is not Hinduism, both in terms of genre and its impact on American politics and society. Whereas the religion of Hinduism contributes to American pluralism and religious diversity, the political ideology of Hindu nationalism works against those core American values by perpetuating supremacist ideas and discriminatory conduct, especially against non-Hindu South Asians. This event is co-sponsored with Hindus for Human Rights (HHR); SALDEF; and the Indian American Muslim Council (IAMC).
Topic:: Hindutva, Pluralism, Religion, and Equality
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

459. The European Union's 'New' Migration Policy: Between Containment and Crisis with Juan Ruiz Ramos

Author:: Juan Ruiz Ramos
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: The European Union's 'New' Migration Policy: Between Containment and Crisis with Professor Juan Ruiz Ramos September 3, 2025 What lies behind the EU’s recently adopted Migration and Asylum Pact? This lecture will unpack controversial measures such as border detention, the externalisation of asylum, and voluntary resettlement, while also comparing them with similar policies in the U.S. system to highlight broader trends in international refugee protection.
Topic:: European Union, Borders, Resettlement, Asylum, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

460. A Global Enemy: Muslims and 21st Century Racism with Professor Saher Selod (9/11/2025)

Author:: Saher Selod
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Based on her critically acclaimed book, Dr. Saher Selod examines how Muslims experience racialization on a global scale with a focus on the United States, China, India, and the United Kingdom. Counterterrorism policies, hyper-surveillance and racialized policing are grounded in transnational negative representations of Islam which in turn legitimize and institutionalize state-sponsored racism against Muslim minorities.
Topic:: Racism, Muslims, Racialization, and Policing
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Europe, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

461. Joe Biden Administration’s Security Policy and What It Means for the Baltic States

Author:: Martinas Malużinas
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to analyse the US security policy during the presidency of Joe Biden, with the main emphasis on military security and its importance for the Baltic states, which perceive the US as the main guarantor of their security. This is particularly important in the context of challenges related to China’s expansion in the region or Russia’s display of strength. Based on realist theories of international relations, using methods of content analysis, synthesis, and comparison, it was possible to analyse the role of the so-called B3 Baltic states in US foreign policy. There is no doubt that the US is positioning itself as one of the key strategic partners of the B3 states; therefore, in this context, it is necessary to consider the US strategic options toward the B3, which have evolved along with the change in the geopolitical situation in the European region. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine confirmed the decisive response of the B3 states, perceiving Russia as a threat to the security of the region. The time frame is limited to Biden’s four-year term in 2021–2024. For research purposes, the contemporary literature in the field of political science and security was used, as well as primary sources related to US decisions and presidential statements that are relevant to this article.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Military Security, and Security Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, United States of America, and Baltic States

462. Welcoming the tired and poor: Grassroots associations and immigrant assimilation during the age of mass migration

Author:: Davide M. Coluccia
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: I examine the impact of the Progressive-era Settlement movement on immigrant assimilation in the United States between 1880 and 1940. Settlements provided services such as job training and childcare to immigrants. Using an individual-level triple difference strategy based on cross-cohort and over-time variation in settlement exposure, I find that settlements increased labor force participation and income for men but not for women. These responses persisted into the generation exposed to settlements during childhood. The gendered effects stem from increased fertility and in-group marriage that excluded women from labor markets, particularly among immigrants from countries with more conservative gender norms.
Topic:: Politics, History, Immigration, Labor Market, Grassroots Organizing, and Assimilation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

463. Political polarization and US-Mexico migration

Author:: María Esther Caballero, Giuseppe Ippedico, and Giovanni Peri
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: We study how the US presidential election of 2016 affected the subsequent inflow of Mexican-born immigrants. We use the “Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad” data to construct proxies for annual inflows and internal movements of Mexican-born individuals, including undocumented immigrants, across US commuting zones. We find that a 10-percentage point increase in the Republican vote share in a commuting zone reduced inflows by 1.8 percent after the 2016 Trump election. The internal relocation of established Mexican immigrants primarily explains this reduction, though inflows of new immigrants decreased as well.
Topic:: Migration, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, Deportation, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

464. Starr Forum: Rethinking Globalization: America First, The World Last?

Author:: Suzanne Berger, Simon Johnson, and Richard Locke
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: Rethinking Globalization: America First, The World Last?: Thursday, November 20, 2025 The Trump administration has reversed decades of US support for globalization by pulling out of multilateral trade deals, imposing tariffs, restricting immigration, and sidelining global institutions. MIT experts analyzed the impact and potential outcomes of such policies for our nation and the world. Speakers: Suzanne Berger is an Institute Professor at MIT. She serves on faculty at the Department of Political Science and is affiliated with the Center for International Studies. Her research focus is on politics and globalization. Additionally, she co-directs the newly launched Initiative for New Manufacturing (INM) which brings engineers, social scientists, and economists together to work on how to transform manufacturing. She also led the MIT Production in the Innovation Economy project (Making in America: From Innovation to Market, 2013). She founded the MIT International Science and Technology Initiative (MISTI) program, which sends hundreds of MIT students abroad each year for internships in labs and companies. Simon Johnson is the Ronald A. Kurtz (1954) Professor of Entrepreneurship at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he is head of the Global Economics and Management group. At MIT, he is also co-director of the Stone Center Initiative and a research affiliate at Blueprint Labs. In 2024, he received the Sveriges Rsbank Prize in Economic Sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel, joint with Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity.” Moderator: Richard Locke is the John C Head III Dean at the MIT Sloan School of Management. A scholar of international labor standards and comparative political economy, Locke began his appointment as dean in July 2025. Prior to this, Locke served as the dean of Apple University, which focuses on internal leadership and management education for Apple, Inc. and was Brown University’s provost, a position he held for nearly eight years. Earlier at MIT, he served as the Class of 1922 Professor of Political Science and Management and the Alvin J. Siteman Professor of Entrepreneurship, as well as the head of the political science department and MIT Sloan’s deputy dean.
Topic:: Globalization, Immigration, Multilateralism, Trade, Donald Trump, and America First
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

465. Starr Forum: America’s Culture War and its Impact on Universities, Innovation, and National Security

Author:: Agustín Rayo and L. Rafael Reif
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: America’s Culture War and its Impact on Universities, Innovation, and National Security | Wednesday, December 10, 2025 As political battles intensify over academic freedom, diversity initiatives, and immigration policy, US universities find themselves at the center of a national reckoning — one that could reshape the country’s scientific leadership and global competitiveness. From the growing risk of a “brain drain” to the challenges of maintaining open research environments in a polarized era, our speakers explored what is at stake for higher education, the innovation ecosystem, and America’s strategic position in the world. Speakers: L Rafael Reif, President Emeritus, MIT; Ray and Maria Stata Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Nina Srinivasan Rathbun, Professor, Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, University of Toronto Moderator: Agustín Rayo, Dean, MIT School of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences; Professor of Philosophy
Topic:: National Security, Domestic Politics, Innovation, Polarization, Universities, and Culture War
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

466. Understanding Different Perspectives on International Relations in MENA (Session 2)

Author:: Peter Krause
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Understanding Different Perspectives on International Relations in MENA: US, Gaza, and the Future for Palestinians An online mini course for the MIT community with Peter Krause (PhD '11). Krause is an associate professor of political science at Boston College and a research affiliate with the MIT Security Studies Program. This webinar is hosted by the MIT-MENA program at the MIT Center for International Studies. About the speaker: Peter Krause is an associate professor of political science at Boston College. His research and teaching focus on international security, Middle East politics, terrorism and political violence, nationalism, and rebels and revolution. He currently teaches courses on Middle East politics, terrorism and political violence, research methods, and international relations. He is a faculty associate in the International Studies Program and the Islamic Civilization and Societies Program at Boston College, as well as a research affiliate with the MIT Security Studies Program.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Palestinians, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North Africa, and United States of America

467. Navigating US-China technology competition among Middle Powers: study of Chilean response

Author:: Andrés Orlando Bórquez Basáez and Dorotea López Giral
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: Amid intensifying US–China rivalry over digital governance, middle powers like Chile face growing pressure to navigate an increasingly fragmented global order. This article examines Chile’s response through expert interviews and analysis of three key technology cases involving Chinese firms. The findings show that Chile has adopted a Hedging Strategy, limiting involvement in sensitive tech projects aligned with US security concerns, while continuing to attract Chinese investment in areas like electromobility and renewables. The study underscores the combined impact of geopolitical tensions, domestic bureaucratic constraints, and the challenges of engaging with China, whose growing presence still requires a process of mutual adaptation. These dynamics raise questions about Chile’s priorities and the limits of its autonomy in this complex context.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Latin America, North America, Chile, and United States of America

468. A Costly Illusion of Control: No Winners, Many Losers in U.S.-China AI Race

Author:: Paul Triolo
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The aggressive U.S. approach to China risks triggering conflict between the two nations while upending any progress to a global framework for AI safety and security
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

469. Tehran’s Red Lines, Trump’s Maximum Pressure, and Regime Survival

Author:: Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Progress toward a potential nuclear deal between the United States and Iran stalls, amid a high-stakes process for Tehran and others
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Donald Trump, and Regime Survival
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

470. Silicon Borders: The Global Justice of AI Infrastructure

Author:: Johannes Himmelreich
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Washington uses ‘chokepoints’ to restrict global access to AI development, but this approach may threaten U.S. national security while creating significant moral dilemmas
Topic:: Development, National Security, Infrastructure, Borders, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

471. The Future of Democracy in the Age of Deepfakes

Author:: Hany Farid
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: AI-generated content has already begun to work against us, rather than for us. To ensure this technology brings benefits rather than harms, we must institute immediate changes
Topic:: Science and Technology, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, and Deepfakes
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

472. Realigning Protection with Principle: Ethics and Policy for the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) After Suspension

Author:: Nathalia Allenza, Samantha Engst-Mansilla, Nicholas Manetas, Alejandra Ramos, and Reem Saeed
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This brief assesses the suspension of USRAP at a moment of global need and institutional strain. It distinguishes refugee resettlement from asylum processing, articulates the ethical and legal foundations of resettlement, and proposes a reform plan grounded in transparency, oversight, and resilience.
Topic:: Reform, Refugees, Ethics, Resettlement, Transparency, and Asylum Seekers
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

473. Iranian Public Opinion Soon After the Twelve-Day War

Author:: Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:: The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) has been conducting in-depth surveys of Iranian public opinion on nuclear issues, regional security, economics, domestic politics, and other topics since the summer of 2014. This report probes attitudes in late September and early October 2025, a few months after the June 2025 Twelve-Day War. This survey found notable signs of the "rally-round-the-flag effect" that many observers were commenting on at that time, including very positive appraisals of some aspects of their government’s and military’s performance during the war. The findings also include multiple indicators of political and economic discontent, but these measures were largely unchanged from the previous year. Much of the report covers attitudes towards Iran’s nuclear program in the context of broader views on national security. Three-quarters held that President Trump used negotiations with Iran to buy time while Israel and the United States prepared to attack Iran. Large majorities maintained that their military fought back successfully during the Twelve-Day War when no other country provided meaningful assistance. Support for Iran’s missile program has hit a record high, and for the first time, a slim majority of Iranians favored having a nuclear deterrent, not just a peaceful nuclear program. Attitudes regarding the possibilities of more military strikes, tougher sanctions, and further negotiations with the United States indicated both continued resistance to coercion, and some openness to compromise if given credible reassurance.
Topic:: National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Public Opinion, Deterrence, Armed Conflict, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

474. As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data

Author:: Jed Kolko
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: US population growth has slowed sharply in the last year and a half, as the immigration surge of the early 2020s has ended and the population continues to age. Fewer jobs are needed to keep up with the growth of the labor force, and growth rates of output and consumption will fall even if per capita output and consumption hold steady. The total US population is growing at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent, down from 1 percent in late 2023. Kolko estimates that the breakeven rate of monthly payroll growth in the jobs report needed to keep up with the labor force has fallen from 166,000 jobs in early 2024 to 86,000 jobs in June 2025. Accordingly, policymakers need to lower their targets and forecasts for key economic data and put more weight on per capita and other population-invariant measures. Adjusting expectations in light of slower population growth is essential for setting monetary policy, determining whether the United States is in recession, and other data-driven decisions and interpretations. With slower population growth, any given level of monthly payroll growth, consumption growth, or output growth reflects a stronger economy than it did a year ago. Population growth is not only slowing; it has also become more volatile and harder to estimate. It is likely that current population estimates for 2025 that statistical agencies are incorporating into economic data are too high and will be revised downward; current population estimates imply much higher immigration in 2025 than is likely under current administration policy. Economic data will need to be reinterpreted and revised in line with future adjustments to population estimates.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, and Population Growth
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

475. The Three Rs of Education Across Chicagoland: Racism, Resistance, & Reform

Author:: Kasey Henricks, Maximilian Cuddy, Amanda E. Lewis, and Iván Arenas
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:: From the federal government’s stated goal of dismantling the Department of Education and the movement for school choice with its push towards vouchers to the language of parental rights, the language of public education has shifted dramatically in recent years. School policies at the local, state, and federal level have been critical in shaping the landscape of public education; yet, analysis and debates about public education often focus on the achievement gaps of Black, Brown, and other minority students when compared to white students. While important, the focus on inequality in educational outcomes obscures the inequitable inputs that lay the foundation for these outcomes in the first place. In this report, we shift the focus to education policies and our school funding structure, two critical inputs of education, and assess their role as primary drivers of inequity in public schools in Chicago and Illinois.
Topic:: Education, Reform, Inequality, Racism, and Public Schools
Political Geography:: North America, Chicago, and United States of America

476. Fairness and Reciprocity? Reconsidering Trump’s Liberation Day Tariffs on South Korea

Author:: Je Heon (James) Kim and Nils Wollesen Osterberg
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This report evaluates the rationale and implications of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on South Korean imports. The administration frames these tariffs as “reciprocal” measures necessary to correct perceived imbalances in the U.S.-South Korea trade relationship. Given that the White House defines reciprocity by matching the tariffs and restrictions imposed by other countries on U.S. goods (i.e., discriminatory taxes, subsidies, burdensome regulatory requirements, exchange rate manipulation, wage suppression, and any other practices that would impose unfair limitations on market access or impedes fair competition), this report investigates whether the Trump administration’s claims about unfair South Korean trade practices are accurate. Drawing on the latest trade data from the Korea Customs Service and tariff schedules from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the report estimates that South Korea’s effective weighted average tariff on U.S. imports in 2024 ranged between 0.19 percent and 2.87 percent, with similar values for 2023. These findings directly challenge the significantly higher figures that the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and Department of Commerce cite, which appear to be driven largely by the U.S. trade balance with South Korea. Measured in trade value, 95 percent of goods exported from the United States to South Korea are tariff-free under the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA), with most remaining tariffs affecting a narrow range of agricultural products subject to quotas. Of the remaining 5 percent, tariffs will be eliminated from another 4 percent of U.S. exports to South Korea by 2026. The report also reviews non-tariff measures (NTMs), acknowledging their complexity and the absence of any standard, mutually agreed-upon metric for converting NTMs into tariff equivalents. Estimating their economic impact requires difficult and often unreliable methodologies such as business surveys, gravity models, and general equilibrium models, none of which yield robust or timely results. Nonetheless, we take note of the fact that there are bilateral (twenty-one committees and working groups under the KORUS FTA) and multilateral (WTO dispute settlement) mechanisms to address these issues more satisfactorily. Ultimately, this report concludes that there is little need to change the U.S.-South Korea trade relationship. It recommends resolving outstanding concerns—especially those related to non-tariff measures—through established bilateral mechanisms under the bilateral FTA rather than unilateral action. Drawing from historical parallels to failed protectionist policies like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, the report warns that these tariffs could undermine economic stability, raise prices for U.S. consumers, and damage the vital bilateral relationship. In short, this report finds no compelling economic rationale for the Liberation-Day tariff rate on South Korea. This suggests that the tariffs are better understood as political tools rather than trade policy rooted in sound analysis.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Tariffs, Trade, Donald Trump, and Imports
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

477. Management practices, competition, and multi-product firms in developing countries

Author:: Victor Gimenez-Perales and Alina Mulyukova
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We study how liberalization and competition affect firms’ output and product scope depending on management practices. In a model of multi-product firms, we show that firms with better management practices specialize in fewer products with lower marginal costs. The model predicts that, under increased competition, firms with better management practices are less adversely affected by competition, especially in heterogeneous sectors. Evidence from India’s de-reservation policy supports these predictions. Our simulations estimate a 0.29% welfare gain in India from the policy. The same policy could increase welfare by 0.39% in an environment with better management practices, such as the US, highlighting the management practices’ role in liberalization outcomes.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Business, Innovation, Management, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and United States of America

478. LNG Projects Are a Bad Deal for Germans and Americans

Author:: Milena Pressentin, Josefin Schmidt, and Julian Schwartzkopff
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Subsidizing fossil gas, especially long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas (LNG), undermines Germany’s energy independence, national security, public health, and climate goals, while also raising energy prices and pollution for Americans. On the other hand, accelerating the deployment of affordable and cleaner technologies across sectors could lower costs and pollution.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Trade, Donald Trump, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

479. How Democracies Defend Themselves Against Authoritarianism

Author:: Robert Benson
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Democracies facing authoritarian threats from within have found ways to push back by strengthening institutions, reinforcing democratic norms, and building popular resistance against encroaching autocracy. Understanding these strategies is vital to learning how to fight back.
Topic:: Human Rights, National Security, Authoritarianism, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Transparency, Voting Rights, Donald Trump, Domestic Policy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, India, Israel, North America, and United States of America

480. Bitter Pill for Brussels? Trump’s Fight with Irish Pharma

Author:: Oskar Fairbairn, Lena Fiedler, and Aoife Hanley
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Around 60% of Irish net exports to US are pharma products. Charging a 200% US tariff would devastate all EU exports, not just Ireland’s. Still, business leaders in Ireland are confident that pharma’s competitiveness will help it survive.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Multinational Corporations, Exports, Trade, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, Ireland, and United States of America

481. Syria’s Transition and the Shadow of the Arab Uprisings

Author:: Andrew Miller
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: While the Syrian people should ultimately determine their own future, the United States must learn from its mistakes during the Arab uprisings to best facilitate a democratic transition.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Human Rights, National Security, Islamic State, Syrian War, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

482. Securing American Competitiveness: Building a Clean and Cyber-Resilient Manufacturing Sector

Author:: Jamie Friedman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As the United States invests in transforming its manufacturing sector to reduce emissions and produce clean technologies, it has an opportunity to strengthen cybersecurity simultaneously.
Topic:: Climate Change, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Manufacturing, and Competition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

483. An Alliance for Open Trade: How to Counter Trump’s Tariffs

Author:: Julian Hinz, Keith Head, Isabelle Mejean, Emanuel Ornelas, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Trump’s renewed tariffs on traditional allies—including the EU, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil—signal a return to aggressive protectionism, openly disregarding WTO rules and threatening the stability of the global trade system. The authors argue that unilateral retaliation by individual countries is unlikely to be effective; instead, only a coordinated response by a broad coalition of affected nations—such as the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea—can exert meaningful economic pressure on the United States. This policy brief proposes that such a joint response should remain WTO-compliant, target politically sensitive sectors of the U.S. economy (including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture), and be framed not as punitive, but as a principled defense of the rules-based international trade order. Timely and coordinated action is critical, as further delays risk deepening fragmentation and inflicting long-term damage on the multilateral trading system.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Tariffs, Free Trade, Trade Policy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

484. Transatlantic Ties beyond Goods Trade: Significance and Policy Implications of EU-U.S. Services Trade

Author:: Frank Bickenbach, Holger Görg, and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Trade in services is an important component of international trade and is becoming increasingly more important with growth rates exceeding the rates with which goods trade increases. This is also true in the bilateral U.S. – EU relationship: Trade in services, and especially trade in digitally deliverable services, is a highly important element of the economic relations between the U.S. and the EU. And it is growing much faster than goods trade between the two economies. Despite its importance, trade in services has received much less attention in political and public discussions on the transatlantic trade relationship – even beyond the current narrow focus on the U.S. goods trade deficit. Against this background this policy brief attempts to explore major developing trends over time in EU-U.S. services trade in general and EU-U.S. trade in digitally deliverable services in particular. In addition to services trade, we analyze the development of services supplied by affiliates of U.S. multinationals in the EU and of those supplied by EU affiliates in the U.S. We provide policy suggestions based on data-driven insights derived from the analysis.
Topic:: Globalization, European Union, Services, Trade, Digitalization, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

485. Trade Wars and Currency Wars – Lessons from History

Author:: Kris James Mitchener and Kirsten Wandschneider
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Explaining President Trump’s “Liberation-day” tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, Stephen Miran, President Trump’s chairman of the council of economic advisors suggested that countries accept the U.S. tariffs without retaliation to come to a fair “burden sharing”(Miran: 2025). History shows that this assumption is wrong: using a detailed data set of bilateral trade flows constructed for the interwar period, this column shows that in fact the US faced substantial and widespread retaliation from trade partners in response to the U.S. Tariff Act of 1930 (i.e., the Smoot-Hawley Tariff). U.S. exports to retaliating countries fell by as much as 33%, with U.S. trade partners specifically targeting high-end, branded consumer products, such as U.S. autos. The drop in trade contributed to the Great Depression, which in turn triggered a large currency war: between 1929 and 1936, 70 countries devalued their currencies relative to gold. We show that trade was further reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. The currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs. The 1930s are a potent reminder of what can happen when international policy coordination breaks down and countries go it alone when negotiating trade and exchange-rate policies.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trade Policy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

486. Sovereign vs. Corporate Debt and Default: More Similar Than You Think

Author:: Gita Gopinath, Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20 years. We use rich new data to compare high-yield US corporate (“junk”) bonds to high-yield emerging market sovereign bonds 2002-2021. Investor experiences in these two asset classes were surprisingly aligned, with (i) similar average excess returns, (ii) similar average risk-return patterns (Sharpe ratios), (iii) similar default frequency, and (iv) comparable haircuts. A notable difference is that the average default duration is higher for sovereigns. Moreover, the two markets co-move differently with domestic and global factors. US “junk” bond yields are more closely linked to US market conditions such as US stock returns, US stock price volatility (VIX), or US monetary policy.
Topic:: Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Default, and Corporate Bonds
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

487. Spatial distribution of housing liquidity

Author:: Francisco Amaral, Mark Toth, and Jonas Zdrzalek
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper examines the relationship between location, liquidity, and prices in housing markets. We construct spatial datasets for German and U.S. cities and show that liquidity and prices decline with distance to the city center. To rationalize these results, we build a structural model with spatial search frictions. We argue that location preferences concentrate buyers in central areas, making markets tighter, more liquid, and driving up prices. Counterfactuals show that suppressing search frictions raises welfare and prices, especially in peripheral areas. Our findings highlight the importance of demand-side preferences and search frictions for understanding liquidity and asset prices.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Markets, Cities, Housing, Real Estate, Liquidity, and Assets
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

488. The consequences of the Trump trade war for Europe

Author:: Julian Hinz, Isabelle Mejean, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • Using the KITE model suite, we study the economic costs of the Trump tariff policy for Europe, and analyze the potential for trade diversion from China. • If the current tariff regime stays in place, trade between the U.S. and China would fall dramatically, hurting mainly the U.S. and the Chinese economies. The direct economic impact for Europe appears limited. • The expected rerouting of Chinese and U.S. exports to third countries is likely to intensify competition between European and Chinese producers in key markets. European consumersstand to benefit from lower prices.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Europe, North America, and United States of America

489. Ukraine Aid: How Europe Can Replace US Support

Author:: Giuseppe Irto, Ivan Kharitonov, Taro Nishikawa, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just 0.1% of their annual GDP on bilateral aid for Ukraine - a minor effort. To replace US aid flows and keep total support at the same level: Europe needs to double its yearly support to an average level of 0.21% of GDP. This is less than half of what Denmark and the Baltics are already doing and on a level of what Poland and the Netherlands do. In short: Europe as a whole would need to follow Scandinavia’s or Poland’s example. In absolute terms (billions of Euro), the biggest European countries and the EU Institutions will be decisive. To replace US aid and get to 0.21% of GDP, Europe as a whole needs to increase its yearly aid flow from currently €44 bn per year to €82 bn per year. The biggest donors for that effort will be the EU institutions (Commission and EIB), who will need to increase their annual support from currently €16 bn to €36 bn per year. Next comes Germany (from currently €6 billion to at least €9 billion per year), then Great Britain (from €5 to €6.5 bn per year), then France (from currently just €1.5 bn to €6 bn per year), Italy (from currently just €0.8 bn to €4.5 bn) and Spain (from just €0.5 bn to €3 bn per year). All remaining European donors would need to move from €14 bn to €16.5 bn per year. To avoid freeriding, we recommend offering financial incentives to those countries giving aid to Ukraine. Big Ukrainian donors (in % of GDP) could get priority access to any new EU-level defense financing scheme. Large Ukraine aid could also be exempt from EU fiscal rules, or deducted from each nation’s contributions to the EU budget. Military effort: On military aid, replacing the US will be more challenging, but is possible in many domains. We show weapon-by-weapon that Europe’s industry has viable alternatives for almost all of the main US heavy weapon systems donated to Ukraine. Europe also accelerated ammunition production and this effort would now need to be intensified at greater speed and scale, especially for howitzer ammunition. Our data show that the biggest dependency from US-produced weapons is in (i) rocket artillery such as HIMARS (86% of weapons for Ukraine are US-produced systems), (ii) Howitzer ammunition (82% US produced), (iii) long-range anti-aircraft systems such as Patriots (70% US produced). In other domains, European weapons play a more important role, in particular regarding Howitzers and battle tanks. Among the heavy weapons, US HIMARS and Patriots are hardest to replace, as is the supply of ammunition for these systems. Also, US intelligence sharing and satellite imagery are decisive. To respond to these challenges: Europe needs to ramp up the production of essential weapons and artillery ammunition quickly and broadly. It is advantageous that European donors already transited away from donating from stocks to procuring new weapons for Ukraine from industry. These procurement efforts would need to be extended considerably by making firm medium- and long-term commitments to weapon-producing firms. For US weapons that are hard to replace, Europe could place orders in the US and beyond. Viable alternatives to HIMARS include the South Korean K239 Chunmoo and Israel’s PULS. In addition, Europe could heavily invest in the development and production of alternative systems such as SAMP/T. European countries could also increase drone production considerably, both by European producers, and, more importantly, by directly investing in the highly successful weapons industry of Ukraine. Finally, Europe would need to move fast to build alternative digital, satellite, and intelligence systems, including accelerated and expanded initiatives such as the satellite internet constellation IRIS2.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Arms Trade, Fiscal Policy, Military Aid, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

490. How to Finance Europe’s Military Buildup? Lessons from History

Author:: Johannes Marzian and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that budget cuts, e.g. on social or foreign affairs, were rarely used to finance military buildups. Instead, governments typically relied on a mix of deficit financing and higher tax revenues. The larger the buildup, the more dominant debt financing has been. In line with history and theory, Germany and Europe should again rely on debt financing to quickly increase its defense spending and military capabilities. To deal with the added debt burden in the medium run, governments could increase taxes, reduce subsidies and tax avoidance, and freeze the growth of social spending. Fiscal rules must not stand in the way of the defence of Europe. A warning example is the case of the UK in the 1930s, which refrained from significantly ramping up military expenditure and instead pursued a policy of balanced budgets and appeasement. Consequently, the UK was ill-prepared when Nazi Germany launched its attack. Germany should not repeat the errors made by Britain in the 1930s and should invest heavily in defense so as to deter Russia. To achieve this, defense spending should be excluded from fiscal rules both in Germany and Europe. A less clear-cut alternative would be the creation of new debt funds, such as a European financing mechanism or another "Sondervermögen" in Germany.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Military Spending, Innovation, Geoeconomics, Fiscal Multipliers, Rearmament, and History
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America

491. Four scenarios for the future of transatlantic relations: European autonomy and the American challenge

Author:: Ville Sinkkonen and Garret Martin
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: While concerns about the long-term durability of the US commitment to European security are not new, the unpredictable Trump administration stands out as a serious threat to the foundations of the transatlantic partnership. By analysing the US approach to Europe through the lens of two key variables – investment (whether the US prioritizes Europe) and control (whether the US seeks to dictate Europe’s policy choices) – the Briefing Paper maps out four scenarios for the transatlantic alliance over the next five to ten years. The four scenarios – neglect, partner, vassal, and bloc logic – each present specific challenges and trade-offs for Europe. However, the first two models, neglect and partner, are less thorny on paper because they would preserve European strategic autonomy. Vassal and bloc logic, by contrast, would likely present Europe with far more challenging dilemmas. American pressure to toe the line would compel Europe to choose between unpalatable options, such as surrender or resistance, while testing its ability to preserve autonomy.
Topic:: Power Politics, Governance, Democracy, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

492. Brazil’s split worlds: Navigating between the Global South and the United States

Author:: Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Brazilian foreign policy, traditionally nonpartisan, is increasingly shaped by domestic political divides, complicating alignment with global powers. This also fuels unpredictability, especially in relation to the United States. Brazil’s political right is looking to align with Washington in a bipolar world order, while its political left still seeks multipolarity through the Global South and with the help of the Global East. If, contrary to many expectations and current Brazilian policy, the world becomes bipolar, Brazil may be forced to pick sides, challenging its tradition of balanced diplomacy. If the world appears to be heading towards multipolarity, this would fulfil a long-held Brazilian foreign policy objective. However, Brazil faces regional dynamics that, perhaps paradoxically, resemble bipolarity, as South America remains only a secondary, or even tertiary, zone for great power competition. Hosting major forums like the G20, BRICS, and COP30 puts pressure on Brazil to deliver more consistent global messaging, limiting its room for strategic flexibility.
Topic:: Global South, Multipolarity, Strategic Autonomy, Great Powers, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

493. Geostrategic thinking and quantum technology: How promises of quantum technology breakthroughs shape Sino-US rivalry

Author:: Markus Holmgren
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Disruptive technologies have emerged as key arenas of strategic competition between the United States and China, and, alongside artificial intelligence, quantum technologies are key among them. By influencing current strategies and policies, their implications begin even before innovations materialize. Uncertainty about the future and the promised benefits of these technologies have implications for both nations’ build-up efforts, resilience strategies, and potential for pre-emptive actions. China has made rapid technological advancements in many fields, narrowing the gap with the United States. Examples include the release of an AI application by the Chinese company DeepSeek and China’s lead in quantum communication technologies. Beyond civilian applications, quantum technology promises significant breakthroughs in military applications, such as codebreaking, signal-free submarine navigation, and intrusion-proof communications.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Competition, Geoeconomics, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

494. Four lenses for observing the second Trump administration: Reflecting uncertainty

Author:: Charly Salonius-Pasternak and Ville Sinkkonen
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The global security landscape has evolved in the four years since President Donald Trump’s first term. The new administration aims to usher in a “Golden Age of America”, with impacts on domestic politics and society, as well as foreign policy. Unlike in 2017, the incoming administration appears better prepared, with outlined plans and key appointments. However, chaotic decision-making processes and an emphasis on loyalty to Trump are likely to introduce unpredictability into governance and policymaking. The administration’s unified domestic and foreign policy strategy can be viewed through four lenses: national sovereignty, economic nationalism, devolution, and the unmooring of power. The Trump administration is likely to embrace disruption and chaos to achieve revolutionary rather than evolutionary change. This thinking draws on tech-inspired startup culture and generational-revolutionary philosophies, which perceive the US as being in a moment of crisis that will usher in a new historical epoch. Key uncertainties remain regarding the administration’s long-term effects on democracy, alliances, and great power competition, particularly concerning trade-security linkages and alliance relations with Europe and Asia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Donald Trump, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

495. The boom and crash of cooperative security in Europe: Four scenarios for the future

Author:: Sinikukka Saari and Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The post-Cold War European cooperative security order, based on shared liberal norms and institutions, has been challenged by Russia’s revisionism and aggression – and more recently by the alienation and even hostility of the United States. Cooperative security has shrunk in scope to an internal European order, shaped around relations among like-minded European states. To maintain this order, Europe will need to actively defend it, not only in words but also in deeds, and even militarily as a last resort. There is a crucial link between the fate of Ukraine and wider European security: the outcome of the war will effectively either validate or reject spheres of influence in Europe and, by extension, the basic principles on which the future of Europe is being built. Europe’s emerging military posture should be grounded in the key norms of European cooperative security: multilateral cooperation, democratic values and international law. Europe can leverage these strengths to navigate the global context of shifting power dynamics.
Topic:: Defense Policy, War, European Union, Regional Security, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America

496. Turkey and Israel – Cooperation through Gritted Teeth

Author:: Joseph Epstein
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the shadow of Israel's Operation "Rising Lion" against Iran, the latest edition of Turkeyscope features Joseph Epstein's analysis of recent developments in Israeli-Turkish relations. Azerbaijan's mediation, pragmatic signals from Syria's new leadership, and strong U.S. encouragement are helping both nations identify mutual interests.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and United States of America

497. Critical Minerals, Rare Earth Elements, and the Challenges Ahead for the United States

Author:: Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs (CCGA)
Abstract:: The race to secure critical minerals (CM) and rare earth elements (REE) has become an area of increasing geopolitical competition, with China and the United States the two key players. The United States is currently behind in that competition. It is being out-invested, out-innovated, and out-educated. Not only is Washington losing, but it is falling further behind by undermining the alliances and cooperative networks that should play a crucial role in overcoming the existing structural deficit. At the same time, current US policy is weakening the domestic green energy market that relies on CMREE inputs and drives technological innovation and investment as much of the world pushes ahead with the energy transition. Solely market-driven solutions are unlikely to materialize to address this challenge in the United States. After all, it was this approach over at least the last two decades that helped to create the current imbalance. The central challenge for the United States, then, is how to build a foundation from which market forces can once again play a leading role in driving financing, research, and labor in the sector. The interlocking web of policies to build this foundation is complex. To be done right, each policy requires others surrounding for support. Completing the puzzle will require broad-spectrum cooperation between government and business. This will include a renewed focus on industrial policy and require setting explicit goals for the United States and its partners to create secure supply chains. This process is not without challenges and will inevitably produce local, and potentially national, opposition. The refineries required to diversify where CMREE are processed will create environmental hazards as well as stress local water resources, among other vulnerabilities. This set of policies will also demand heavy investment in material sciences to develop new technologies that can reduce and replace CMREE inputs where possible. Pursuing these policies will necessitate much deeper investment in education and training to create a workforce capable of meeting the demands in the CMREE mining, processing, and materials science sector. Even with extensive government support, there is no guarantee that private investment will materialize to sustain the industry. China’s virtual cornering of a vast swath of the market means much of the sector does not operate along traditional axes of supply and demand, discouraging private investment in the process. This makes it more likely that long-term government support in the form of subsidies, tax incentives, and price controls will be required. That puts such funding and support at the mercy of shifting political winds. Under previous US administrations, a wide-ranging challenge like CMREE would produce the requisite policy papers calling for deeper coordination, cooperation, and integration between the United States and a consortium of like-minded countries. Some of that cooperation may yet be possible, but with a US administration that views the world through a zero-sum lens, it becomes less likely each day. Rather than coordination, it will be absolute dollar amounts that drive cooperation. That approach may be successful in the short term in establishing the building blocks of a secure CMREE supply chain. But its longer-term prospects are uncertain. This report and its policy recommendations are based on discussions from two seminars and multiple conversations across several countries and continents with policy analysts, industry professionals, and government officials. The first seminar was conducted in cooperation with the Perth USAsia Centre in Perth, Western Australia. This seminar brought together participants from around the Indo-Pacific to share their views on how allies and partners could coordinate their efforts. The second seminar was held in Chicago at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs with industry professionals, minerals practitioners, and academic experts from across the United States. A full list of participants can be found in the appendix.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Rare earth elements (REEs), Critical Minerals, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

498. NATO: The Damage Is Done – So Think Big

Author:: Sven Biscop
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: For seventy-six years, NATO tried to prove Lord Palmerston wrong. Now it turns out that he was right after all: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow”. The second Trump Administration behaves as Europe’s rival, not as its ally. It is too late for mere damage control. Placating Trump will not work either: unrestrained, he will just go further and further. Europeans must present the US with a clear idea of which NATO they want, and what they will invest to get it. That is the way to salvage the Alliance at the NATO Summit in The Hague in June. The damage is done. Because even if the US were to radically alter course and recommit fully to NATO as we knew it, everyone now knows that a next President may change it back again. The US cannot treat NATO the way it treats the agreements on climate change: it joins, it leaves, it rejoins, and leaves again. Deterrence demands constancy, or there is no deterrence. Unless it is actually tested in war, Article 5 will now never be as credible as before. This has already affected the global balance of power: adversaries who perceive that the US may not stand by Europe may be emboldened and become more aggressive. Against Europe, but also against the US, whose erratic economic and foreign policies Europe will not follow.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

499. The AI Bubble and the U.S. Economy: How Long Do ‘Hallucinations’ Last?

Author:: Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The U.S. is undergoing an extraordinary, AI-fueled economic boom: The stock market is soaring thanks to exceptionally high valuations of AI-related tech firms, which are fueling economic growth by the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars they are spending on data centers and other AI infrastructure. The AI investment boom is based on the belief that AI will make workers and firms significantly more productive, which will in turn boost corporate profits to unprecedented levels. But evidence is piling up that generative AI (GenAI) is failing to deliver. This paper argues that (i) we have reached “peak GenAI” in terms of current Large Language Models (LLMs); scaling (building more data centers and using more chips) will not take us further to the goal of “Artificial General Intelligence” (AGI); returns are diminishing rapidly; (ii) the AI-LLM industry and the larger U.S. economy are experiencing a speculative bubble, which is about to burst (because of the first point); and (iii) the U.S. bet the farm on a future dominated by U.S.-owned AGI, because, for geopolitical reasons, it could not afford to risk to lose the AI-race with China; this geopolitical bet on AGI is now going bad.
Topic:: Water, Geopolitics, Economy, Profit, Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, Energy, Large Language Models (LLMs), ChatGPT, and Speculative Bubbles
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

500. Is Fedwire Still a Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?

Author:: William Bergman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper examines the Federal Reserve’s current financial losses—unprecedented in scale—and the questionable accounting practices it uses to downplay their impact. It argues that the Fed’s selfdefined accounting standards, particularly the creation of a “deferred asset” to mask negative equity, obscure the fiscal consequences for the U.S. government and taxpayers. The analysis connects today’s losses to longstanding institutional practices, notably the Fed’s flawed costrecovery accounting for its Fedwire payment system. These issues first emerged in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the author, then a Fed staffer, challenged the internal logic used to claim that Fedwire guaranteed payments and still avoided subsidies. The paper includes as an appendix the original 2002 draft, “Fedwire: A Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?”, which helped reveal the moral hazard and accounting inconsistencies that contributed to the 2008 crisis and continue to shape central bank risk and governance today
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve, Regulation, Central Bank, and Payment Systems
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS