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4702. The U.S.-Japan Alliance: President Obama’s First 100 Days
- Author:
- Randall Schriver and Mark Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Befitting for a prominent ally, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton waited only a day to establish communication with her counterpart in Japan. While the gesture is surely appreciated in Tokyo, and the symbolism was not lost in Washington, the messages revealed little about the Administration’s intentions (if any) to take concrete steps to enhance the alliance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Barack Obama
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
4703. The Taiwan Quadrennial Defense Review: Implications for U.S. – Taiwan Relations
- Author:
- Julia Famularo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Although the recent cross-Strait political climate has improved, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has steadfastly refused to renounce the use of force against Taiwan while shifting the cross-Strait military balance in its favor. Faced with such challenges, the Taiwan Quadrennial Defense Review is meant to increase military transparency while convincing Taiwanese legislators, the Chinese PLA, and U.S. policy makers and analysts alike that the Ministry of National Defense is firmly dedicated to creating new strategies and engaging in reforms that will prepare the military for future challenges.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
4704. The Great Game in Space: China’s Evolving ASAT Weapons Programs and Their Implications for Future U.S. Strategy
- Author:
- Ian Easton
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- If there is a great power war in this century, it will not begin with the sound of explosions on the ground and in the sky, but rather with the bursting of kinetic energy and the flashing of laser light in the silence of outer space. China is engaged in an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons drive that has profound implications for future U.S. military strategy in the Pacific.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Weapons, Space, and Satellite
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
4705. China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability: the anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and beyond
- Author:
- Mark Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) challenge could alter the strategic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. An effective ASBM and supporting maritime surveillance network would diminish the effectiveness of carrier-based assets, such as the F/A-18 E/F.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Weapons, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
4706. Turkey's Strategy in the Changing World
- Author:
- Atilla Sandikli
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- At the last quarter of 20th century, Cold War ended and technological advances in general with significant progresses in communication in particular have generated the phenomenon of globalization. The developments in financial markets and in real economy not only spread through geographical boundaries of nation states but also influence economic, technologic, and socio-cultural spheres decisively. National and international spaces as well as local and global domains are increasingly intertwined. Further beyond the interdependencies among states there are emerging new fields of cooperation and of common interests between societies. Democratic values and awareness on human rights are becoming universally shared norms as their applications expand conspicuously. Pluralist democratic regimes that respect human rights and that achieve a just income distribution provide better welfare systems for their publics. These regimes, in the long term, contribute stability and peace at domestic, regional and international levels. Accordingly, geopolitical weight of the states maintaining such regimes increases.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, European Union, Democracy, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America
4707. To Curtail the Iranian Nuclear Threat, Change Tehran's Threat Perceptions
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- Iran’s pursuit of nuclear technology, and possibly nuclear weapons, stems from its complicated threat environment and the historical grievances it harbors concerning the United States. Tehran now faces large numbers of U.S. troops in its neighbors to the west and east with few regional allies. The most productive path for averting nuclear weapons development in Iran is for Washington to seek to alter Iran’s threat perceptions.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
4708. Strategic Missile Defense: A Reality Check
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- Strategic Missile Defense offers no real disincentive for rogue regimes such as North Korea or Iran to develop or use ballistic missiles, nor does it offer any protection against the more acute threat of terrorist groups smuggling weapons of mass destruction into the United States. Instead, the aggressive pursuit of strategic missile defense makes it more difficult to constrain the potential offensive nuclear threat from Russia and China.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and United States of America
4709. Preventive Military Action: The Worst Way to Deal With Iran's Nuclear Program
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- Although the possibility of Iranian nuclear weapons is a major concern for Israel and the United States, leaving the "military option" on the table is counterproductive. Preventive military action by either country against Iran's nuclear facilities would only delay, rather than halt, Tehran's nuclear program, and it would cause Iran to retaliate against the United States as well as Israel. The aftermath of such an attack would be disastrous for the U.S. position in the region-particularly for relations with Israel and with Iraq-and its position in the wider world.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America
4710. Is There Time to Prevent an Iranian Nuclear Weapon?
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- The Obama administration has identified September as a time for reassessing its approach to negotiation with Tehran over Iran's nuclear program. It is imperative that this reassessment is based on a realistic appraisal of Iran's weaponization capabilities and limitations and not fall prey to politically motivated hyperbole. Iran's nuclear program is undeniably bringing that country closer to an ability to construct nuclear weapons-bad news for the region, the United States, and the world. Yet, a nuclear-armed Iran is years, not months, away, which is ample time for negotiating an outcome that prevents Iran from becoming a nuclear-weapon state while strengthening the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4711. Dealing With Long-Range Missile Threats: It's All About Russia
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- The nearly 2,000 nuclear warheads on Russian ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles constitute the sole near-term existential threat to the United States. The U.S. response to this threat has been to maintain the nuclear war-fighting posture adopted during the Cold War. Yet, this posture does not lead toward an improvement in U.S. security; it merely reinforces Russia’s incentive to persist in its own anachronistic security calculus. The New START and a transformational post-Cold War Nuclear Posture Review would clear the path for major U.S. and Russian arms reductions, laying the foundation for a rejuvenated effort to halt nuclear nonproliferation and for engaging other nuclear-weapon states in arms control.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States of America
4712. Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy 'Assassin's Mace' Capability
- Author:
- Andrew S. Erickson, William S. Murray, and Lyle J. Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- After a lengthy hiatus-lasting nearly six centuries—China is reemerging as a maritime power, this time with an emphasis on undersea warfare. Between 1996 and 2006, the Chinese navy took delivery of more than thirty submarines. These vessels include two new classes of nuclear submarines-the advanced Song-class diesel submarines and the Yuan class of diesel boats which, according to some reports, was a surprise for U.S. intelligence. Above and beyond this ambitious naval construction pro- gram, the People's Republic of China (PRC) received during 2005-06 an additional eight formidable Kilo-class submarines (and associated weaponry), which were purchased in 2002, to add to the four it already operated. A new nuclear submarine base on Hainan Island may well herald a new era of more extended Chinese submarine operations.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Navy, Submarines, and Mine Warfare
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
4713. Unprecedented Projected Nuclear Growth in the Middle East: Now Is the Time to Create Effective Barriers to Proliferation
- Author:
- David Albright and Andrea Scheel
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Science and International Security
- Abstract:
- Large civil plutonium stocks are set to accumulate for the first time in the wider Middle East over the next two decades. Countries in this conflict-prone region are planning the construction of at least 12 to 13 new nuclear power reactors (Table 1). Using a simple calculation to determine the expected plutonium discharge annually from these reactors, ISIS estimates that regional civil plutonium production could total more than 13,000 kilograms, or 13 tonnes by 2020, and nearly 45 tonnes by 2030 (Table 2). Given that just 8 kg of plutonium is enough to fabricate a nuclear weapon, this figure is significant. These quantities indicate that by 2020 the region may possess enough plutonium for almost 1,700 nuclear weapons. To be usable in a nuclear weapon, this plutonium must first be separated from the irradiated fuel in reprocessing plants. Middle Eastern countries may seek to purchase civil reprocessing plants from suppliers or build them using their domestic capabilities and equipment purchased from abroad. To reduce the risk of proliferation in the Middle East and help lay the basis for a regionwide nuclear weapon free zone (NWFZ), the United States must ensure that plutonium is not separated from irradiated reactor fuel, insist on adequate international inspections of these countries, including the adoption of the Additional Protocol, and develop mechanisms to remove spent fuel from the region. Absent such conditions, the incoming administration should discourage the development of nuclear power.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and United States of America
4714. New York City's Preparedness for Terrorism (and Catastrophic Natural Disasters)
- Author:
- Clark Kent Ervin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Sooner or later, somewhere or other, another natural disaster will strike America, be it a hurricane, a tornado, an earthquake, or a flood. Sooner or later, somewhere or other, terrorists will attempt to strike America again. Indeed, many experts believe that the threat of another attack is rising. 1 Al Qaeda is resurgent, having reconstituted itself along the Afghan-Pakistan border. 2 And, recent history shows that terrorists are especially prone to strike during the transition from one administration to another or early in the term of a new government. Adding to our vulnerability, the nation is now bogged down in two wars and groaning under mounting debt, while our economy is sinking from the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
- Topic:
- Security, Natural Disasters, Financial Crisis, and Al Qaeda
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States of America
4715. Sunni and Shi'a Terrorism: Differences that Matter
- Author:
- Thomas F. Lynch III
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- There are significant and little appreciated differences in the trajectory of Sunni extremist terrorism and that of Shi’a extremism. The differences exist across six key areas that impact American policy considerations, especially in light of steadily escalating tensions with Iran. First and foremost, Sunni radicals and Shi’a extremists differ in the overall approach and main objectives for their use of terror. The former tend to operate in a continuous, mid‐to‐high intensity manner, seeing war against infidels and apostates as a perennial condition featuring overlapping waves. Outside of an ongoing and seemingly open‐ended campaign against Israel, terrorist attacks by Shi’a groups have by and large featured discrete terror campaigns tethered to state and organizational objectives. Second, Sunni terrorists and Shi’a extremists manifest different patterns for recruiting terrorist operatives and developing terrorist missions. Shi’a terrorists, unlike their Sunni counterparts, enjoy direct state support and for that reason are far more likely to originate from Iranian embassies, consulates and state‐run businesses. Third, despite holding a minority viewpoint within the wider Sunni Islamic community, Sunni extremists, especially Salafi‐Jihadis, rely more extensively on the support of their coreligionist expatriate communities in facilitating terrorist activities. Fourth, while employing similar tactics and methods, Shi’a terrorist groups have shown a much greater propensity to kidnap innocents to barter, while Sunni extremists more frequently abduct to kill. Fifth, Shi’a terror groups exhibit a much higher incidence of targeted assassinations for specific political gain, rather than the high‐casualty killings featured in Sunni terrorism, and particularly of the Salafi‐Jihadist variant. Finally, each sect’s extremists manage publicity and propaganda differently. The Sunni approach to information management tends to feature doctrine and resources geared to take immediate credit and widely amplify a terrorist event. Shi’a terrorists, while not averse to normal media publicity and amplification, by and large take a much lower‐key approach.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and Counter-terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
4716. The Iranian Intentions behind Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
- Author:
- Michael Bell and Mahjoob Zweiri
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
- Abstract:
- China welcomed Iran’s desire to strengthen cooperation in all spheres with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) following its official application in April 2007 to become a full member. With the SCO currently growing into strategic alliance between several of the worlds leading energy producers and two of its most hungry consumers; the United States saw an opportunity to establish itself in the region and therefore lobbied for observer status in 2005, however the request was denied. Since then, we have seen the SCO assume an ideological mantle of growing anti-Americanism. Committed to establishing a new international political and economic order, the association of East Asian states known as the SCO was founded as an intergovernmental organization in Shanghai on15th June, 2001. Its six founding countries; China, Russia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan holding roles as country observers, have asppired to mitigate the influence of US power in the region, therefore Iran’s application for full membbership has crucial, and possibly underlying aspects to its reasoning. Therefore we would like to present some information about the SCO to specifically present the benefits Iran would gain by full membership.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Economy, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America
4717. Assessing External Effects of City Airports: Land Values in Berlin
- Author:
- Gabriel Ahlfeldt and Wolfgang Maennig
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
- Abstract:
- This paper employs a hedonic price model to explain standard land values in Berlin. Impact on land values is assessed for the two city airports situated in Berlin, Germany, Tempelhof and Tegel. Empirical results confirm expectations about the impact of various attributes on land values. Areas exposed to noise pollution of downtown airport Tempelhof sell at a discount of approximately 5-9% within a distance of 5000 m along the air corridor. No significantly negative impact was found for land values around Tegel Airport, which is located in a central, but less densely populated, area. Market access indicators created for all three Berlin airports in operation, including Berlin Schoenefeld International Airport, reveal clear location advantages in terms of accessibility of Tempelhof and Tegel compared to Schoenefeld Airport, where the new Berlin Brandenburg International Airport is about to be developed.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Land, and Airports
- Political Geography:
- Germany, Berlin, and United States of America
4718. Evolving Capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army: Consequences of Coercive Aerospace Power for U.S. Conventional Deterrence
- Author:
- Randall Schriver and Mark Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- How the PRC could apply force as an instrument of national power may be more significant than specific technical capabilities it develops and fields. An increasingly sophisticated arsenal of advanced weapon systems serves as an enabler for the PRC to expand its range of options for exercising coercive uses of force to resolve differences with democracies in the region.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Deterrence, Military, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Aerospace
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
4719. From the ‘‘Red Juggernaut’’ to Iraqi WMD: Threat Inflation and How It Succeeds in the United States
- Author:
- Jeffrey M. Cavanaugh
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- JEFFREY M. CAVANAUGH analyzes the process of ‘‘threat inflation’’ in the United States by examining three positive cases and one negative case of threat inflation since 1945. He concludes that successful threat inflation and hawkish policies stem from the interaction of several factors.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Threat Perception
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
4720. A Solution for the US–Iran Nuclear Standoff
- Author:
- William Luers, Thomas R. Pickering, and Jim Walsh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The recent National Intelligence Estimate’s conclusion that Tehran stopped its efforts to develop nuclear weap- ons in 2003, together with the significant drop in Iranian activity in Iraq, has created favorable conditions for the US to hold direct talks with Iran on its nuclear program. The Bush administration should act on this opportunity, if for no other reason than that its current position is growing weaker, and without such an initiative, Iran will continue its efforts to produce nuclear fuel that might, in the future, be used to build nuclear weapons. Currently, Iran has approximately three thousand centrifuges, which it has used to produce small test batches of uranium that has been enriched to a low level (which cannot be used for nuclear weapons). Until now, Iranian engineers have not successfully operated a centrifuge cas- cade (a collection of centrifuges working together) at full capacity—which, as a practical matter, would be needed to enrich nuclear fuel to the level necessary either to establish an effective nuclear energy program or to manufacture nuclear weapons. But the Iranian government has declared its ambition to build more than 50,000 centrifuges, and recent reports also suggest that Tehran is testing a modified “P-2” centrifuge, a more advanced version of its existing centrifuge technology, which can produce a larger volume of enriched uranium. We propose that Iran’s efforts to produce enriched uranium and other related nuclear activities be conducted on a multilateral basis, that is to say jointly managed and operated on Iranian soil by a consortium including Iran and other governments. This proposal provides a realistic, work- able solution to the US–Iranian nuclear standoff. Turning Iran’s sensitive nuclear activities into a multinational program will reduce the risk of proliferation and create the basis for a broader discussion not only of our disagreements but of our common interests as well.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America