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2. United States of America: Briefing sheet
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, Outlook, and Briefing sheet
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
3. United States of America: Economic structure
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic structure, Charts and tables, and Monthly trends charts
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4. United States of America: Political structure
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, and Political structure
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
5. United States of America: Country fact sheet
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Economy, Background, and Fact sheet
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
6. United States of America: Country forecast summary
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Economy, 5-year summary, and Key indicators
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
7. United States of America: Basic data
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
8. Fentanyl Precursors from China and the American Opioid Epidemic
- Author:
- Martin Purbrick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The fentanyl epidemic was born in America, rose from the supply of precursor chemicals made in China and is now even more destructive as Mexican drug cartels profit from huge demand. The involvement of suppliers of fentanyl precursors from China is a controversial issue that negatively impacts U.S.-China relations. The U.S. government has claimed that not enough is being done to curtail the production and trafficking of fentanyl precursors from China. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) government has claimed that it has taken strong action while also emphasizing China’s antipathy to illegal drugs by falling back on the historical legacy of the harm wrought by Western merchants’ trading of opium with China in the 19th century.
- Topic:
- Narcotics Trafficking, Organized Crime, Cartels, Opioid Crisis, and Fentanyl
- Political Geography:
- China, Mexico, and United States of America
9. Ten Years of Democratizing Data: Privileging Facts, Refuting Misconceptions and Examining Missed Opportunities
- Author:
- Donald Kerwin and Robert Warren
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- The Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) initiated its “Democratizing Data” project in 2013 to make detailed demographic information widely available on the US undocumented, eligible to naturalize, and other non-citizen populations. The paper begins by outlining top-line findings and themes from the more than 30 CMS studies under this project. It then examines and refutes four persistent misconceptions that have inhibited public understanding and needed policy change: (1) migrants never leave the United States; (2) most undocumented migrants arrive by illegally crossing the US-Mexico border; (3) each Border Patrol apprehension translates into a new undocumented resident; and (4) immigrants are less skilled than US-born workers. The paper then offers new analyses in support of select policy recommendations drawn from a decade of democratizing data. It concludes with a short reflection and a case study on the failure of data, evidence-based policy ideas, and national ideals to translate into necessary reform.
- Topic:
- Border Control, Democracy, Data, and Migrants
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
10. The Polarized American Electorate: The Rise of Partisan-Ideological Consistency and Its Consequences
- Author:
- Alan I. Abramowitz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- Alan I. Abramowitz presents evidence from American National Election Studies surveys showing that party identification, ideological identification and issue positions have become much more closely connected over the past half century. He argues that as a result, the ideological divide between Democratic and Republican identifiers has widened considerably. The rise of partisan-ideological consistency has contributed to growing affective polarization as well as increasing party loyalty and straight ticket voting.
- Topic:
- Elections, Ideology, Political Science, Survey, Polarization, Republican Party, and Democratic Party
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
11. Are Immigrants a Threat? Most Americans Don’t Think So, but Those Receptive to the “Threat” Narrative Are Predictably More Anti-immigrant
- Author:
- PRRI Staff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Joe Biden campaigned on a commitment to reverse many of the Trump administration’s strictest anti-immigration policies. Though many of these policies have either been reversed or halted — including the travel ban for people from various countries, the ban on temporary work visas, and the expansion of the public charge rule, among others —some remain in place.[1] One such policy is a public health rule known as Title 42, which allows for the immediate expulsion of migrants at the border in order to control the spread of COVID-19. The rule was set to be lifted in late December, but its suspension was delayed by the Supreme Court owing to public backlash and fears that illegal border crossings would increase significantly.[2] Meanwhile, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis have proposed legislation that would both extend Title 42 and provide a pathway to citizenship for two million people who were illegally brought to the United States as children and are now classified as “Dreamers.” The proposal also includes new resources to speed the processing of asylum seekers.[3] As politicians struggle with how to address immigration issues, Americans’ views on immigration have become increasingly polarized, with Republicans becoming significantly more anti-immigrant in their attitudes over the past few years. Republicans have continually attacked the Biden administration’s handling of immigration, claiming that his policies will increase the flow of immigrants over the southern border and calling for U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas to resign. These criticisms are expected to increase now that Republicans have regained control of the House of Representatives.[4] Though the Trump-era narrative still resonates among certain portions of the American public, this report reveals that majorities of Americans do not view immigrants as a threat. But people who are more likely to think of immigrants as a threat — including those who most trust conservative media sources and Fox News — they are considerably more anti-immigrant and less supportive of open immigration policies.
- Topic:
- Politics, Immigration, Border Control, and Nativism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
12. The Monroe Doctrine as the Will and Idea of the United States of America
- Author:
- Boris Martynov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- On February 24, 2022, international relations entered a whole new stage of development affecting, albeit to varying degrees, practically all states, with no end in sight. On September 7, 2022, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the world was experiencing “fundamental transformations.” Such transformations generally require several years to be completed. By the middle of the third decade of the 21st century, two highly important signs of a new situation have become absolutely clear: a crisis of the old institutions of global governance and the new rising and developing centers of power. At the same time, the opinion that the new is just the “well-forgotten old” is confirmed. This is especially true of the US and its policies.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, Governance, Law, Psychology, Identity, and Monroe Doctrine
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Global Focus, and United States of America
13. Turkey vis-à-vis Russia’s War against Ukraine
- Author:
- Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Characterising Turkey’s policy towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is not an easy task. Elements of both support for Ukraine and neutrality have emerged in the past year. An analysis of the fundamentals of Turkey–US relations and Russia–Turkey relations is thus helpful.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America
14. Reproductive Injustice? A County-Level Analysis of the Impact of Abortion Restrictions on Abortion Rates
- Author:
- Raymond Caraher
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- Since Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992, state governments in the United States have been permitted to restrict abortion access up to the point where such restrictions do not place an ‘’undue burden” on those seeking abortion care. Since this ruling, abortion restrictions of various types and intensities have proliferated across the South and Midwest, especially since the 2010s. This paper uses a novel dataset of county-level abortion rates covering 20 years, as well as a database covering four types of restrictions which represent both “demand-side” restrictions (i.e., those which target abortion seekers) and “supply-side” restrictions (i.e., those which target abortion providers), to analyze the effect of abortion restrictions on abortion rates. Using a difference-in-differences design, the analysis finds that while both classes of abortion restrictions reduce the abortion rate, restrictions that target pregnant people seeking an abortion have a substantially larger effect on abortion rates. Leveraging the spatial heterogeneity of the county-level dataset, the analysis further finds that abortion restrictions have a substantially larger negative effect on abortion rates for counties which have a larger share of Black or Hispanic residents. When comparing high and low income counties, the results suggest that poorer counties experience a higher negative effect of abortion restrictions. Further, the study finds significant variation in the effect of different abortion restrictions by state. While demand-side laws consistently cause abortion rates to decrease, the results for supplyside laws are more heterogenous. Overall, the results suggest that repealing Roe v. Wade will have a significant and unequal effect on abortion rates, with marginalized communities experiencing a greater impact.
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, Inequality, Legislation, Reproductive Rights, and Abortion
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15. Federal Reserve Anti-Inflation Policy: Wealth Protection for the 1%?
- Author:
- Aaron Medlin and Gerald Epstein
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from Congress that directs it to conduct monetary policy as such to achieve “maximum employment” and “stable prices.” Yet the U.S. central bank typically chooses to address inflation as a top priority and focuses on employment only secondarily, if at all. Why? In this paper we argue that an important reason is that the Federal Reserve conducts policy so as protect the real wealth of the top 1% of the wealth distribution. We focus on the Fed’s fight against inflation in 2021-2022, when it rapidly raised its policy interest rates by almost 4 percentage points in the face of more than 6 percent inflation. Using a novel econometric analysis, we provide evidence that shows that this policy serves as a real net wealth protection policy for the 1% by restoring some of the lost wealth that they would otherwise lose due to unexpected inflation. The results of this policy for the top 10% of the wealth distribution are econometrically ambiguous. But to the extent that the Fed’s high interest rates generate higher unemployment or even a recession, this wealth protection for the 1% could have serious income costs for workers who find themselves or another member of their household out of a job.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Monetary Policy, Inflation, Elites, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16. Inflation and Paid Care Services in the U.S.
- Author:
- Nancy Folbre
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- Nancy Folbre offers a number of reasons why increases in average wages among the lowest deciles of the population are not likely to significantly buffer the effects of rapid inflation on families with incomes below the poverty line. It also raises a number of specific questions for future research.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Economic Inequality, Inflation, and Wages
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
17. Women, Peace and Security and the 2022 National Security Strategy
- Author:
- Hans Hogrefe and Cassandra Zavislak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Our Secure Future
- Abstract:
- This brief examines the inclusion of the Women, Peace and Security agenda in the Biden Administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy, and compares it to the ways in which the Trump Administration’s 2017 National Security Strategy addresses the full participation of women in our national security interests.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Women, Inequality, Peace, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North America, and United States of America
18. U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, 2022: Accelerating Spending, Worsening Outcomes
- Author:
- Munira Z. Gunja, Evan D. Gumas, and Reginald D. Williams II
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Commonwealth Fund
- Abstract:
- In the previous edition of U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, we reported that people in the United States experience the worst health outcomes overall of any high-income nation.1 Americans are more likely to die younger, and from avoidable causes, than residents of peer countries. Between January 2020 and December 2021, life expectancy dropped in the U.S. and other countries.2 With the pandemic a continuing threat to global health and well-being, we have updated our 2019 cross-national comparison of health care systems to assess U.S. health spending, outcomes, status, and service use relative to Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. We also compare U.S. health system performance to the OECD average for the 38 high-income countries for which data are available. The data for our analysis come from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and other international sources (see “How We Conducted This Study” for details). For every metric we examine, we used the latest data available. This means that results for certain countries may reflect the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when mental health conditions were surging, essential health services were disrupted, and patients may not have received the same level of care
- Topic:
- Health, Health Care Policy, Inequality, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
19. The First COVID Wave: Comparing Experiences of Adults Age 50 and Older in the U.S. and Europe
- Author:
- Thomas Barnay and Eric Defebvre
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Commonwealth Fund
- Abstract:
- Three years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, the United States remains one of the hardest-hit countries, with more than 1 million confirmed coronavirus deaths, of which more than 91 percent involved people 50 years and older.1 Beyond causing this enormous loss of life, the pandemic has had other significant adverse consequences, including hospitalizations, job loss, and delayed care for millions of Americans. In this brief, we examine how U.S. adults age 50 and older fared during the first wave of the pandemic in the summer of 2020, compared with their peers in European countries.
- Topic:
- Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
20. Is the banking crisis back?
- Author:
- Olivier Perquel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- On March 8th, 2023, the Silvergate Bank, a small American regional establishment, a crypto-currency specialist, went bankrupt. Two days later, on March 10th, the Silicon Valley Bank, a large regional bank, which had become the 16th largest in the US by total assets, and the largest holder of the liquidities of Californian startups and venture capital, failed. On March 12th, Signature Bank (roughly half of the size of Silicon Valley Bank), of which the Trump family was a client until the Capitol incidents, also collapsed. Three bank runs in only a few days, even though everyone believed that since the 2007 crisis and the subsequent massive re-regulation of the banking sector in the United States and in Europe, the banking sector was safe. These three bankruptcies followed the same mechanism. Silicon Valley, as its name suggests, was the main bank of the Californian Silicon Valley, where startups and venture capital funds deposited their liquidities. And following the extraordinary development of this activity until 2022, these liquidities had become extremely large. It should indeed be understood that these funds and startups which look for financial backing all the time and obtain frequent and ever larger fundraises, therefore own significant amounts of liquidities. Indeed, start-ups raise money at a given point in time to finance their runway, i.e. their investments and working capital requirements, for a certain period of time (one, two or three years) until the following fundraise. As a result, during the intermediary period, they deposit the amounts raised and not yet spent in banks. Similarly, the venture capital funds take a certain time to invest the amounts raised and, in the meantime, deposit their Dry Powder in banks. Hence these bank deposits grow extremely rapidly. However, an organization like Silicon Valley Bank cannot develop at the same speed as its credit activities, far from it. It is therefore obliged to invest its assets in bonds, notably US Treasury bonds, liquid in nature, and not risky - supposedly. And when rates rise, the value of these bonds decreases, even if it does not show in the bank’s accounts, since these bonds are generally accounted for as “held to maturity”, i.e. at par. Indeed, at maturity, these bonds will be reimbursed at par; and if the banks keep these bonds until then, it will not lose any money
- Topic:
- Economy, Banking Crisis, and Startup
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
21. The Growing Presence of Faith-Based Hospitals in California Restricts Access to Sexual and Reproductive Healthcare
- Author:
- Yuki Hebner, Kayla Lim, Natalie Gehred, and Zoe Guttman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Sexual and reproductive healthcare restrictions imposed by faith-based hospitals prevent women, sexual minorities, and gender minorities from accessing the full range of comprehensive healthcare. The share of faith-based hospitals in California has increased rapidly in recent years, but no analysis has been completed to understand their distribution and rate of growth. In this paper, we calculate the percentage of religiously affiliated acute, short-term hospital beds per California county. We find that faith-based hospitals have a majority market share in 17 out of 58 California counties. Furthermore, while the percentage of faith-based hospitals in these counties has remained relatively stable from 2000-2010, this proportion has increased tenfold in the past decade. Our data suggest that the expansion of faith-based healthcare systems in California presents a significant barrier to sexual and reproductive healthcare access.
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, Faith, Sexual Health, and Reproductive Health
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
22. Examining Child Deprivation Across California and How It Could Be Addressed with Early Childhood Education
- Author:
- Jamshid Damooei and Ruslan Korchagin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Socioeconomic deprivation can create adverse conditions with direct impacts on the development of children. The Early Childhood Deprivation Index (ECDI) shows that there are significant differences in the extent of deprivation of young children (aged 0 to 5 years) among the counties in California. Our research shows that the cost of childcare forms a significant proportion of family income among low- and middle-income families. It indicates that families can pay for a high proportion of such costs if they could access the available federal and state government entitlements. A universal high-quality early childhood education system brings about an efficient way of providing the childcare without the unnecessary cost of employing a means-tested entitlement mechanism. However, even with universal early childhood education, families need support to be able to take advantage of the program, since pre-schooling will be on a voluntary basis. It is therefore important that in addition to providing education universally- communities, and the state make every effort to increase the ability of California families to benefit from this important opportunity.
- Topic:
- Education, Poverty, Children, Inequality, and Child Care
- Political Geography:
- California, North America, and United States of America
23. Alaska Electoral Reform: The Top 4 Primary and Ranked-Choice-Voting
- Author:
- Jerry McBeath
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Why did Alaska develop a top 4, Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system? This article explains the role a blanket primary played in the evolution of Alaska’s nominating process, beset by demands of the rising Alaska Republican Party (ARP) to protect its rights as a political association while the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in California v. Jones constrained states’ interests. In 2019-2020 reformers proposed a new system emphasizing a nonpartisan primary with RCV, which political party leaders opposed. Voters narrowly approved the ballot measure in the 2020 general election; it was used for the first time in a special election, and primaries in 2022 and the following general election. The most significant outcomes were the election of Mary Peltola, a Democrat (and Alaska Native) to the state’s sole seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and reelection of Republican Lisa Murkowski, senior U.S. senator, who defied former President Donald Trump. The article presents information on major political party registrations, showing switching dominance (from Democratic to Republican). However, from 1970 to 2023, a majority of registrants were either nonpartisan or undeclared, a different pattern than found in the other states. The report compares Alaska’s experience with those of other states using RCV, and concludes with a discussion of the broader implications of the Alaska case.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Voting, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- North America, Alaska, and United States of America
24. Alaska’s New Electoral System: Countering Polarization or “Crooked as Hell”?
- Author:
- Marie O'Reilly, David Lublin, and Glenn Wright
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- California Journal of Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- In November 2020, Alaska introduced a new electoral system, combining a “top four” all-party primary with ranked choice voting (RCV) general elections. Supporters of this reform claimed it would reduce the partisan polarization and minority victories generated by closed primaries and plurality elections. But critics suggest that it could make polarization worse by weakening political parties—an important check on political extremism. These are high-stakes issues that go well beyond Alaska, given the problem of political polarization and the search for institutional reforms in America today. Placing the Alaskan reforms in this broader national context, this paper presents an initial assessment of Alaska’s new system at the 2022 primary and mid-term elections. We find the reform was both consequential and largely beneficial, promoting greater choice for voters, more accommodative campaigning, and generally more moderate outcomes than likely under the old rules.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Voting, and Party System
- Political Geography:
- North America, Alaska, and United States of America
25. ASEAN's medium- to long-term trade strategies and the direction of RoK-ASEAN cooperation
- Author:
- Sungil Kwak, Seungjin Cho, Jaewan Cheong, Jaeho Lee, Mingeum Shin, Nayoun Park, and So Eun Kim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the U.S.-China hegemony competition has intensified, dividing the world into two blocs. ASEAN has long culti-vated its position on the international stage by maintaining a certain distance between the United States and China. In that sense, ASEAN is the best partner for Korea to ef-fectively respond to the divided world. Therefore, this study seeks the directions of cooperation with ASEAN in supply chain, digital trade, climate change response, and health and development cooperation in line with changes in the international order.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Trade, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
26. Network and Text Analysis on Digital Trade Agreements
- Author:
- Kyu Yub Lee, Cheon-Kee Lee, Won Seok Choi, Jyun-Hyun Eom, and Unjung Whang
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- We use the Trade Agreements Provisions on Electronic Commerce and Data and their corresponding texts to undertake network and text analysis on trade agreements with digital trade chapters to identify which countries are important in the network and how similar or different their texts of digital trade chapters are. centrality values reflect which countries are influential in the network, while values of similarity assess the level of similarity between the texts of digital trade chapters concluded by these countries. Centrality and similarity are complementary in assessing the relative positions of countries in the network, where the number of linkages between countries is significant in centrality and the quality of digital trade chapters is critical in similarity. We interpret this to mean that a country with a high degree of centrality is likely to be a rule-promoter in the network, whereas a country with a high degree of similarity is likely to be a rule-maker. The brief highlights three key findings from network and text analysis of digital trade agreements: (1) The U.S. has been the best rule-maker but not the best rule-promoter, whereas Singapore has been the best rule-promoter but not the best rule-maker. (2) China is a rule-maker, but to a weaker extent than the U.S., and Korea is a rule-promoter, although it is less active than Singapore. (3) Japan and Australia have served as both rule-makers and rule-promoters. Identification of countries’ relative positions in the network of digital trade agreements would be useful at the start of talks on digital trade policy.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, Digital Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, and United States of America
27. Strategies of Multinational Companies Entering China in the Era of U.S.-China Competition and Implications for Korea
- Author:
- Sang Baek Hyun, Ji Young Moon, Min-suk Park, Jonghyuk Oh, and Yunmi Oh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- With the integration of resources and markets around the world sparked by the trend of globalization, multinational companies have continued to grow at a rapid pace. In particular, global manufacturers have maintained their competitiveness by distributing resources more efficiently while establishing a global value chain with China as their main production hub. However, measures taken by the U.S. to block China’s access to technology and supply chains in some high-tech industries have prompted discussions on reorganization of the global supply chain, placing these multinational companies in an uncertain situation concerning their operations in China. At a time when competition between the U.S. and China is intensifying, it is necessary to look at the response strategies of global companies that have entered China and seek effective countermeasures for Korean companies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Multinational Corporations, Manufacturing, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
28. Using Risk Analysis to Shape Border Management: A Review of Approaches during the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Author:
- Kelley Lee, Julianne Piper, and Jennifer Fang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- The near universal adoption of travel measures by governments to control the spread of COVID-19 has proved controversial during the pandemic. National responses have been highly varied and frequently changing, and the use of travel measures—ranging from advisories and screening to quarantine, testing, immunity certification, and restrictions on entry—has been poorly coordinated across jurisdictions. Particularly in the early stages of the crisis, this created chaos for travelers and the travel sector, and caused significant economic and social harms. Many governments also failed to clearly communicate the rationale for using travel measures, the evidence underpinning them, and the measures’ role within overall pandemic response strategies. There is now substantial evidence that these measures’ early and stringent use by some governments during the initial stages of the pandemic slowed the importation of the virus and reduced its onward transmission. Yet, there is also growing recognition of weaknesses in the quality of evidence available to inform policy decisions. Evaluating the appropriateness of travel measures and applying them effectively during future public-health emergencies will depend on international consensus on methodologies that lead to a more harmonized and coordinated approach and to greater public trust in policy decisions. This report presents a comparative analysis of 11 publicly available methodologies used to assess travel-related risks during the pandemic—those of Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Air Transport Association, World Health Organization, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and European Union. It offers a set of lessons learned and recommendations, including a proposed decision instrument that could improve the use of risk analysis for border management during future public-health emergencies.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, International Organization, Governance, Border Control, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Global Focus, and United States of America
29. Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army’s Professional Expert Knowledge
- Author:
- C. Anthony Pfaff, Christopher J. Lowrance, Bre M. Washburn, and Brett A. Carey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Also, unlike the development of the bomb, effective employment of AI technology cannot be relegated to a few specialists; almost everyone will have to develop some level of AI and data literacy. Complicating matters is AI-driven systems can be a “black box” in that humans may not be able to explain some output, much less be held accountable for its consequences. This inability to explain coupled with the cession to a machine of some functions normally performed by humans risks the relinquishment of some jurisdiction and, consequently, autonomy to those outside the profession. Ceding jurisdiction could impact the American people’s trust in their military and, thus, its professional standing. To avoid these outcomes, creating and maintaining trust requires integrating knowledge of AI and data science into the military’s professional expertise. This knowledge covers both AI technology and how its use impacts command responsibility; talent management; governance; and the military’s relationship with the US government, the private sector, and society.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, Army, Civil-Military Relations, and Data Science
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
30. WHY DEMOCRACIES AREN’T MORE RELIABLE ALLIANCE PARTNERS
- Author:
- Mark Nieman and Doug Gibler
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- ussia’s invasion of Ukraine set off a security spiral in Europe. Despite US President Biden’s pledge to “defend every inch of NATO territory,” Poland increased its military budget by a whopping 60 percent and asked to have US nuclear weapons based on its territory. Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia also announced sizable defense increases, with Latvia re-instating compulsory military training. Why didn’t Biden’s pledge reassure these NATO members? Is the alliance’s famed Article 5 promise—that an attack on one member is an attack on all—a less than ironclad guarantee?
- Topic:
- NATO, Democracy, Alliance, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
31. WOULD AN ARMED HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION IN HAITI BE LEGAL—AND COULD IT SUCCEED?
- Author:
- Alexandra Byrne, Zoha Siddiqui, and Kelebogile Zvobgo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Haitian officials and world leaders are calling for an armed humanitarian intervention backed by the United Nations (UN) to defeat organized crime. Gangs in Haiti have reportedly kidnapped and killed hundreds of civilians and displaced thousands. Gangs are also limiting access to fuel and blocking critical humanitarian aid to civilians. Add to this a resurgence of cholera. The United States asked the UN Security Council in October to approve a targeted intervention, under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield underscored “extreme violence and instability” in Haiti and proposed a mission led by a “partner country” (not the United States or UN peacekeeping forces). There is nominal support for the mission. In the coming weeks, Canada will send naval vessels to Haiti’s coast, and Jamaica has offered some troops, but no country is taking the lead. Critics argue that past missions in Haiti did more harm than good. In 2010, UN peacekeepers even reintroduced cholera into Haiti. Nonetheless, the United States is pushing for an intervention.
- Topic:
- International Law, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Humanitarian Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America
32. Refuge: How the State Shapes Human Potential
- Author:
- Heba Gowayed
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- Drawing on a global and comparative ethnography, this presentation explores how Syrian men and women seeking refuge in a moment of unprecedented global displacement are received by countries of resettlement and asylum—the U.S., Canada, and Germany. It shows that human capital, typically examined as the skills immigrants bring with them that shape their potential, is actually created, transformed, or destroyed by receiving states’ incorporation policies. Since these policies derive from historically informed and unequal approaches to social welfare, refugees’ experiences raise a mirror to how states (re)produce inequality.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Inequality, Human Capital, Resettlement, and Asylum
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Canada, Germany, Syria, and United States of America
33. The Two Faces of American Freedom
- Author:
- Aziz Rana
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- Professor Rana situates the American experience within the global history of colonialism, examining the intertwined relationship in U.S. constitutional practice between internal accounts of freedom and external projects of power and expansion. In the process, he reinterprets the American political tradition from the colonial period to modern times, placing issues especially of race, immigration, and national security in the context of shifting notions of empire and citizenship.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, Race, Citizenship, Colonialism, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
34. Global business environment improves
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, 5-year summary, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Ukraine, Canada, India, Israel, Finland, Kazakhstan, Norway, Greece, South Korea, Kuwait, France, Poland, Lithuania, Libya, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Germany, Estonia, Algeria, Cuba, Belgium, Denmark, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Spain, Australia, Italy, Dominican Republic, Croatia, Switzerland, Sweden, Latvia, Egypt, Mexico, Nigeria, Jordan, Netherlands, Portugal, Ireland, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar, Singapore, Thailand, Tunisia, Costa Rica, Chile, Austria, Angola, Peru, New Zealand, Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates, Ecuador, Czech Republic, El Salvador, Cyprus, Slovenia, Slovakia, United States of America, UK, Iran, Islamic Republic of, Russian Federation, Taiwan, Province of China, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of, and Viet Nam
35. Global business environment improves
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, 5-year summary, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Ukraine, Canada, India, Israel, Finland, Kazakhstan, Norway, Greece, South Korea, Kuwait, France, Poland, Lithuania, Libya, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Germany, Estonia, Algeria, Cuba, Belgium, Denmark, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Spain, Australia, Italy, Dominican Republic, Croatia, Switzerland, Sweden, Latvia, Egypt, Mexico, Nigeria, Jordan, Netherlands, Portugal, Ireland, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar, Singapore, Thailand, Tunisia, Costa Rica, Chile, Austria, Angola, Peru, New Zealand, Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates, Ecuador, Czech Republic, El Salvador, Cyprus, Slovenia, Slovakia, United States of America, UK, Iran, Islamic Republic of, Russian Federation, Taiwan, Province of China, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of, and Viet Nam
36. Global business environment improves
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, 5-year summary, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Ukraine, Canada, India, Israel, Finland, Kazakhstan, Norway, Greece, South Korea, Kuwait, France, Poland, Lithuania, Libya, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Germany, Estonia, Algeria, Cuba, Belgium, Denmark, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Spain, Australia, Italy, Dominican Republic, Croatia, Switzerland, Sweden, Latvia, Egypt, Mexico, Nigeria, Jordan, Netherlands, Portugal, Ireland, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar, Singapore, Thailand, Tunisia, Costa Rica, Chile, Austria, Angola, Peru, New Zealand, Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates, Ecuador, Czech Republic, El Salvador, Cyprus, Slovenia, Slovakia, United States of America, UK, Iran, Islamic Republic of, Russian Federation, Taiwan, Province of China, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of, and Viet Nam
37. Global business environment improves
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, 5-year summary, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Ukraine, Canada, India, Israel, Finland, Kazakhstan, Norway, Greece, South Korea, Kuwait, France, Poland, Lithuania, Libya, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Germany, Estonia, Algeria, Cuba, Belgium, Denmark, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Spain, Australia, Italy, Dominican Republic, Croatia, Switzerland, Sweden, Latvia, Egypt, Mexico, Nigeria, Jordan, Netherlands, Portugal, Ireland, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar, Singapore, Thailand, Tunisia, Costa Rica, Chile, Austria, Angola, Peru, New Zealand, Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates, Ecuador, Czech Republic, El Salvador, Cyprus, Slovenia, Slovakia, United States of America, UK, Iran, Islamic Republic of, Russian Federation, Taiwan, Province of China, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of, and Viet Nam
38. Imperfect Partners: The United States and Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Scot Marciel and Ann Marie Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- This event will discuss U.S.-Southeast Asian relations with Ambassador Scot Marciel, the former United States Ambassador to Indonesia and Myanmar. The talk will be based on his new book which will be released on March 15, 2023 entitled Imperfect Partners: the United States and Southeast Asia. Imperfect Partners is a unique hybrid – part memoir, part foreign policy study of U.S. relations with Southeast Asia, a critically important region that has become the central arena in the global U.S.-China competition. From the People Power revolt in the Philippines to the opening of diplomatic relations with Vietnam, from building a partnership with newly democratic Indonesia to responding to genocide in Myanmar and coups in Thailand, Scot Marciel was present and involved. His direct involvement and deep knowledge of the region, along with his extensive policymaking work in Washington, allows him to bring to life the complexities and realities of key events and U.S. responses, along with rare insights into U.S. foreign policy decision-making and the work of American diplomats in the field.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and United States of America
39. China/United States: Europe off Balance
- Author:
- Thomas Gomart and Marc Hecker
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- As French President Emmanuel Macron (accompanied by Ursula von der Leyen) is on a state visit to China, some twenty Ifri researchers decipher the stakes of the U.S./China/Europe strategic triangle. This 16-text study follows Olaf Scholz’s visit to Beijing (November 2022) and precedes that of Emmanuel Macron (April 2023). It comes especially one year after the beginning of a geopolitical and geoeconomic shock of a rare magnitude: the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The War in Ukraine or the Return of Bloc Geopolitics? The war in Ukraine has broken ties between the European Union (EU) and Russia for the foreseeable future, particularly in the field of energy, though not without consequences in the Middle East, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, this war has become the main show of active indirect confrontation between the United States—which has provided military support to Ukrainians, with help from its European allies—and China, which has supported Russia politically and economically. In February 2022, Moscow and Beijing declared their “no limits friendship”; in March 2023, Xi Jinping offered his personal support to Vladimir Putin after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest. In its position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, presented in February 2023, China stated: “All parties should oppose the pursuit of one’s own security at the cost of others’ security, prevent bloc confrontation, and work together for peace and stability on the Eurasian Continent”. China is no more of a mediator than the United States: it would be unrealistic to believe so. We appear to be witnessing a return of bloc geopolitics, albeit in a starkly different context than that of the Cold War (1947-1991). Globalization has produced strong economic and technological interdependencies that make any prospect of decoupling very costly, if not impossible. Economic partners are no longer necessarily military allies, and vice versa. In other words, a gap is opening up between geopolitical perceptions and geoeconomic realities. The term “decoupling” is popular in the United States, though much less so elsewhere. The rejection of bloc geopolitics is particularly acute outside of the West, where a “pragmatic” approach to foreign policy is often promoted. The Saudi foreign minister summed this up during the World Policy Conference in December 2022: “Polarization is the last thing we need right now. […] We need to build bridges, strengthen connections, and find areas of cooperation”. A few months later, China pulled off an extraordinary diplomatic coup by brokering a deal to restore relations between Riyadh and Tehran. For the EU, the situation is particularly delicate: Europe is in the Western camp, but a severing of ties with Beijing would cause a crushing economic blow. In 2022, China accounted for more than 20% of the EU’s imports, while the United States accounted for around 12%. By 2030, the EU’s GDP is expected to rise to $20.5 trillion, compared to $30.5 trillion for the United States and $33.7 trillion for China. In January 2023, the President of the European Commission declared at Davos: “We still need to work and trade with China, especially when it comes to this transition. So, we need to refocus our approach on de-risking, rather than decoupling”. For its part, Beijing has encouraged European aspirations of “strategic autonomy”, understood in China as a form of detachment from the United States. At the same time, the EU is constantly strengthening its military, technological, financial and energy ties with the U.S. This collective study notes a hypothetical search for balance on the part of the Europeans, faced with a war on their territory (the Western peninsula of the heartland), who cannot escape Sino-American mechanisms, and who do not form a monolithic whole. It also analyzes the strategy of several important actors outside our continent, and shows that, from Ukraine to Taiwan, via Africa and the Middle East, Europeans have little room for maneuver. This is why the study proposes recommendations to try, at a crucial moment, to reinforce their positioning.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, European Union, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
40. Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight
- Author:
- Héloïse Fayet and Amélie Ferey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The Red Team Defence demonstrates the Ministry of the Armed Forces' desire to appropriate new foresight tools. Thus, brain games or serious games aim to bypass the weight of the military hierarchy, the standardisation of thoughts and cognitive biases in order to avoid strategic unthinking. In September 2022, The New York Times revealed that the successful Ukrainian offensive on Kharkiv had been prepared in a series of wargames conducted that summer. Given this success, further wargames have been undertaken with a view to a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring. This rise in the popularity of wargames, which come in various forms, is due to their ability to immerse participants in a situation, helping them to become aware of their strategic and tactical blind spots and to identify their own vulnerabilities by putting themselves in the enemy’s position. The ability to anticipate crises and foresee conflicts is essential in order to maintain the initiative and ultimately win out. Thus, the aim of defense foresight is to understand the different forms future wars might take (asymmetric, hybrid, high intensity), the weapons systems that may be employed (drones, high-velocity missiles), and the factors that could trigger them. The use of wargames or scenario analyses to facilitate anticipation and foresight goes hand in hand with changes in the relationship between military and political leaders and civilians, who no longer hesitate to hold the former to account when they have failed to foresee a crisis. The German sociologist Ulrich Beck thus refers to the paradox of a society that is keen to predict the future because of its aversion to risk and the fact that it is now much more difficult to foresee what might happen in the short term due to very rapid technological developments. The modern world generates both risks and progress, and the inability to foresee strategic ruptures carries significant political costs, which explains why politicians set so much store in anticipation and foresight. The initiatives launched by Florence Parly after being appointed French minister of the armed forces in 2017 included promoting experimentation in new cognitive tools. Beyond the issue of technology, the aim was to rethink information management within the ministry in order to make it more agile and cross-cutting. In addition to a significant budget allocated to innovation in the 2019–2025 Military Programming Law, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has drawn inspiration from methods often originating in other organizational cultures, such as start-ups and the private sector, in order to improve its creativity and accelerate its adoption of digital technology.
- Topic:
- War Games, Military, and Anticipation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, North America, and United States of America
41. Digital Sovereignty: European Policies, American Dilemmas
- Author:
- Mathilde Velliet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- European digital sovereignty has been made a priority by Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission. Due to the privileged position of American companies in the European market, Brussels’ efforts towards digital sovereignty (on privacy, antitrust, data sovereignty, etc.) are closely scrutinized by American policymakers. They often view European initiatives as “protectionist” and unfairly targeting U.S. companies. However, the American vision of European digital sovereignty has evolved in recent years under the influence of two main factors. On the one hand, awareness of the problematic effects and practices of platforms has led to a consensus on the need for reform in the digital sector. On the other hand, technological competition with China has been elevated to a priority. This vision remains fraught with contradictions, along inter-party, intra-party, inter-agency, state-federal, and issue-based fault lines. Washington’s position on anti-monopolistic practices is an illuminating example, characterized by a double discourse between a desire to reform the U.S. digital sector domestically and active diplomacy to dilute these efforts at the European level. Nonetheless, several American actors – particularly in the legislative branch – are seeking to learn from the successes and flaws of European regulations for American reform projects, such as on platform regulation or privacy. The China factor reinforces the ambiguity of the U.S.’ position. It creates new opportunities for cooperation in the face of perceived common vulnerabilities (infrastructure security, inbound investments, etc.) and autocratic definitions of digital sovereignty. However, it also raises tension and misunderstanding on the American side towards European reforms that often target American companies more than Chinese ones. Lastly, while American and European companies have adapted to the need for digital sovereignty through a range of technical and commercial solutions, the temptation of a maximalist definition of European sovereignty continues to create major stumbling blocks, particularly on the cloud.
- Topic:
- European Union, Regulation, Cloud Computing, Digital Sovereignty, and Data Governance
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
42. South Korea and IPEF: Rationale, Objectives and the Implications for Partners and Neighbors
- Author:
- Jaewoo Choo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- As a key manufacturer of high-end technology components critical to the sustainability of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, South Korea is essential in any effort to rebuild a resilient global supply chain but also to the promotion of a clean economy. South Korea can thus contribute to two of the pillars of IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework), specially to pillars II and III (supply-chain resilience and a clean economy). However, as the US executive and legislative branches intensify their hawkish approaches to China, they have not given much consideration to the possible damage they will inflict on the strategic interests of some of their allies. In particular, they have not fully considered Korean factors when legislating on bills such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This paper argues that allies such as South Korea and France must make the White House and US legislature aware of the external consequences of their decisions and behavior, and that they must cooperate within the confines of US-led strategic initiatives.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Economy, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
43. How the War in Ukraine is Changing the Space Game
- Author:
- Guilhem Penent and Guillaume Schlumberger
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine has become a showcase for the new commercial paradigm emerging in the space sector (New Space). As such, it seems to confirm the relevance of adaptation efforts led by the United States – more specifically the Pentagon – since the mid-2010s. Thus, it highlights ongoing transformations and announces potential disruptions in the exploitation of orbits, particularly in the fields of satellite connectivity and remote sensing. It also shapes future tensions, while the structuring of international relations around the two poles constituted by the United States and China raises questions about the consequences on the safe, sustainable, secure, and stable use of space. With these developments, Europe is faced with the challenge of remaining relevant.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, Space, Satellite, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
44. Reshuffling Value Chains - South Korea as a Case Study
- Author:
- Françoise Nicolas
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Despite all the talks about the reshuffling of value-chains and the trend to a form of industrial “Desinicization” (or decoupling/disengagement from China), the example of South Korea does not vindicate such assertions. The expansion of Korean direct investment in neighboring countries such as China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) remains a reality and it has not changed in any fundamental way over the past two decades. South Korean companies’ decisions to locate in one country rather than another are still very much based on cost factors, even if security considerations are increasingly factored in. Similarly, reshoring, which has been high on the South Korean government’s agenda for a long time, remains a marginal phenomenon for South Korean companies, despite the incentives provided. Rather than the relocation of production (in the form of reshoring or nearshoring) South Korean companies have turned to more unexpected options, such as the development of complementarity-based partnerships or vertically-integrated production networks with commodity suppliers, as in the case of the production of rare earth-based magnets. Such a strategy is likely to become more popular in the future, as it nicely combines economic and security considerations. Without a doubt, due to the highly politicized nature of the technology involved, the semiconductor industry is the one undergoing the most significant changes. In a context of rising Sino-US rivalry, the US has ramped up pressures on China with far-reaching consequences, leading South Korean semiconductor companies (with the support of the government) to engage in a strategy combining relocation to the US and onshoring in South Korea. While the economic logic is likely to prevail in most sectors thus limiting the scope for supply chain reshuffling, the examples of the semiconductor and rare earth-based magnets suggest that important changes can still be expected in the future in industries that are deemed strategic.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Supply Chains, Value Chains, and Semiconductors
- Political Geography:
- China, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
45. No Water’s Edge: Russia’s Information War and Regime Security
- Author:
- Gavin Wilde and Justin Sherman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- To the extent that any unified theory of Russian information warfare actually exists, its core tenet might well be that regime security has historically been indivisible from information warfare in Russian strategic thought. Rather than an aggressive or expansionist expression of Moscow’s foreign policy, the Kremlin’s so-called information war should primarily be viewed through a domestic and regime security prism—it’s as much a counterinsurgency as an expeditionary strategy, less an escalation than a projection. Analysts and decisionmakers should therefore avoid reflexively casting the United States and the West as Russia’s primary antagonists in its information war, as doing so risks reinforcing these insecurities and exaggerating Moscow’s degree of power in the information ecosystem.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Information Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and United States of America
46. Four Contending U.S. Approaches to Multilateralism
- Author:
- Stewart Patrick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The era of U.S. president Donald Trump exposed the shortcomings of a unilateralist and hypernationalist approach to the pursuit of U.S. global objectives. Although that orientation still commands support in some Republican quarters, a more compelling foreign policy debate for the United States has emerged: What form of multilateralism is currently best suited to advance U.S. national interests and international stability? This historical moment is defined by two countervailing trends, as described in the 2022 National Security Strategy issued by U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration. The first is a profusion of transnational challenges that can only be addressed, mitigated, or resolved through collective action, such as climate change and pandemic disease. The second is a resurgence of geopolitical competition that hinders that very cooperation.1 The imperative for collective action has never been greater, yet the world remains, as United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres bemoans, “gridlocked in colossal global dysfunction.”2 Biden has turned the page on Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, but the debate over alternative approaches to intergovernmental cooperation has just begun.3 Within the U.S. foreign policy establishment, four distinct models vie for primacy—and the administration’s attention. The first is a charter conception of multilateralism, focused on the UN’s model of universal membership. The second is a club approach, which seeks to rally established democracies as the foundation for world order. The third is a concert model, which seeks comity and joint action among the world’s major powers. The fourth is a coalition approach, which would tailor ad hoc frameworks to each global contingency. Each of the so-called four Cs lays claim to a respective virtue: legitimacy, solidarity, capability, and flexibility.4 As the Biden administration begins its third year—and as internationalists continue to advocate for different modes of multilateralism to tackle a daunting global agenda—the time is ripe for the United States to take a more strategic and intentional approach to international cooperation. Each of the four Cs rests on specific assumptions, makes distinct causal and normative claims, and poses real-world trade-offs for the pursuit of U.S. preferences and prospects for effective collective action. To be able to weigh their relative merits in specific circumstances, policymakers first need to better understand their conceptual underpinnings and practical implications.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Multilateralism, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
47. Integrating Cyber Into Warfighting: Some Early Takeaways From the Ukraine Conflict
- Author:
- Ariel Levite
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- It is too early to draw definitive conclusions about cyber warfare in the lead-up to and the execution of the Ukraine war. Data are lacking, and the outcome of the conflict remains uncertain. Yet through monitoring and analysis of a single year in the first major war into which cyber has been extensively woven, we do know enough to be able to generate some tentative, high-level, generic propositions on the nature of cyber conflict. These propositions draw on wide-ranging press reporting and extrapolate from several superb pieces recently published by my colleagues Jon Bateman, Nick Beecroft, and Gavin Wilde, as well as Microsoft’s recent report on the cyber dynamics of the conflict.1 However, we must still tread cautiously. Our propositions draw on highly imperfect empirical knowledge of a single historical case that is still unfolding.2 Current and future antagonists are also constantly learning from their own and others’ analyses and enhancing their performance, which can render current assessments obsolete.3 For this and other reasons it is quite possible that some of the cyber dynamics unfolding in and around Ukraine may play out differently later in Ukraine as well as in other, future confrontations. As we have observed over millennia, the balance between offense and defense can shift over time; this dynamic may well play out in cyberspace as well. It is also important to note at the outset that widespread assessments disparaging the utility and expediency of Russian cyber operations in the Ukrainian conflict (and projections regarding future conflicts) are presently limited by far more than a lack of comprehensive and reliable empirical data. We also lack insights into the metrics and criteria that each of the protagonists uses to assess the success and failure of cyber’s overall performance in the conflict, and we have only fragmentary evidence of the role each party expected cyber operations to perform. Moreover, even if we had such information, Ukraine-specific answers might not apply elsewhere because the expectations for cyber and the metrics for assessing its performance may vary not only over time and between protagonists but also from one conflict to another. In this context it is important to underscore that some specific factors that possibly helped diminish the efficacy of Russia’s offensive cyber operations in Ukraine may not apply elsewhere. Three in particular deserve to be noted here: Russia’s unique approach toward cyber warfare; the level of external support that Ukraine received before and during the war from some leading national and multinational cyber powers; and the sophistication and battle-tested experience of Ukraine’s cyber warriors.4 Nevertheless, even if some of the cyber characteristics of the Ukraine conflict ultimately turn out to be sui generis, they are instructive given the novelty of the field and the involvement of major powers in the conflict. Hence, there is considerable value in advancing these propositions to focus attention on certain questions and facets of cyber conflict, facilitating their review and reassessment as more comprehensive and reliable information becomes available and developments on the battlefield evolve. But the reader should consider the interim observations and propositions offered here as hypotheses employed as a heuristic to encourage debate and invite feedback. All the propositions offered below pertain to our core conception of what cyber warfare is about. Some of the propositions we advance are novel; others reaffirm or refine tentative assertions made before the war. Taken together they suggest a more subdued view of the utility and impact of cyber warfare than was generally found in prewar speculations. More importantly, the Ukraine war reveals that nations diverge significantly in the role and aims they assign to offensive cyber operations as well as the institutional setup and operational modalities they use for conducting them. Most glaringly, the U.S. perspective and approach (emulated in whole or in part by several other Western nations) differs deeply from that of Russia, which makes it reasonable to expect similar divergence across similar regimes. We group our propositions under three temporal headings: the prewar period (starting in 2014);5 the war itself (beginning on February 24, 2022); and finally, the postwar period, after kinetic hostilities eventually die down. Obviously, we cannot know when this last phase will begin; nevertheless, analysis of trends that were manifest in the two earlier phases of the conflict provides a tentative basis for predictions as to what might be expected down the road. This broad scope is driven by two considerations. First, it is designed to underscore the considerable relevance of cyber operations across various phases and types of conflicts. And second, it highlights continuity as well as change between cyber action in peacetime, in wartime, and in grey area situations, as well as during the transitions between these states of confrontation.
- Topic:
- Cybersecurity, Conflict, Non-Traditional Threats, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America
48. The Causes Behind the Ciudad Juárez Migrant Detention Center Fire
- Author:
- Josiah Heyman and Jeremy Slack
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The fire that killed 40 people on March 27 is the foreseeable consequence of binational immigration enforcement measures by the United States and Mexico.
- Topic:
- Law Enforcement, Border Control, Immigration Policy, and Migrants
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, Mexico, United States of America, and Ciudad Juarez
49. Militarized Security and a Cartel Apology in Matamoros
- Author:
- Philip Luke Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The abduction and murder of U.S. citizens in the border city of Matamoros is part of a larger pattern of violence with impunity by state and criminal actors.
- Topic:
- Security, Crime, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, Border Control, Impunity, Violence, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
50. Brasília and Washington
- Author:
- Chris N. Lesser
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Beyond the parallels with the U.S. Capitol riot, the latest assault on Brazil’s democracy is marked by Washington’s long history of anti-democratic foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democracy, Jair Bolsonaro, January 6, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America
51. Sanctions, Economic Statecraft, and Venezuela’s Crisis
- Author:
- César Rodríguez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fourth Freedom Forum
- Abstract:
- This case study summarizes the evidence on the effect on Venezuela’s economic and social conditions of economic sanctions and other actions of economic statecraft taken by the United States and its allies in response to the country’s political crisis. The preponderance of evidence indicates that sanctions and other statecraft measures—including the formal recognition of a government with no de facto control over the territory—have had a strong and significant negative effect on the Venezuelan economy. These actions have made a sizable contribution to declining oil production, exacerbating the country’s fiscal crisis, and contributing to one of the largest documented peacetime economic contractions in modern history. Many arguments commonly voiced to dispute the effects of sanctions, such as those that appeal to temporal precedence of other causes of the country’s crisis, are either factually incorrect or premised on fallacious logic. Reforming the sanctions regime will be a complex task, given the interaction with other statecraft measures and a broader toxification of the country’s economic relations. Reform attempts should include the introduction of an oil-for-essentials program, support for political humanitarian agreements, issuance of clearer compliance guidelines, introducing an explicit differentiation between strategic and nonstrategic sanctions, and seeking multilateral alignment with international actors on key strategic issues including that of government recognition.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Economics, Sanctions, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America, Venezuela, and United States of America
52. The Geopolitical Consequences of COVID-19: Assessing Hawkish Mass Opinion in China
- Author:
- Joshua Byun, D. G. Kim, and Sichen Li
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- JOSHUA BYUN, D.G. KIM, and SICHEN LI examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Chinese public’s foreign policy attitudes. Drawing on original surveys fielded in China during the first six months of the global pandemic, they find that ordinary Chinese citizens are optimistic about China’s future global position, and that this optimism corresponds with the widespread perception that the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating China’s rise relative to the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Geopolitics, Survey, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
53. After Trump: Enemies, Partisans, and Recovery
- Author:
- Christopher J. Fettweis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- CHRISTOPHER J. FETTWEIS discusses what political polarization in the United States has in common with the relationship between the Cold War superpowers. He argues that in both cases the “enemy image” warps perception of the other side and prevents meaningful reconciliation. Applying insight from international relations to U.S. domestic politics, he discusses the pernicious effects of the enemy image and how to overcome it.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
54. Biden’s Foreign Policy Casts a Long Shadow
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Upon taking office as US president, Joseph R. Biden vowed he would bring the United States back to the centre of the international stage after the erratic course followed by Donald Trump. One year later, it can hardly be said that he has been successful.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
55. The Return of US Leadership in Europe: Biden and the Russia Crisis
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In dealing with Russia’s aggressive policies towards Ukraine, US President Joe Biden has put up a powerful display of competent crisis management. While it may not be enough to stop President Vladimir Putin from escalating, Biden’s policy has nonetheless re-affirmed US leadership in Europe.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Vladimir Putin, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Caucasus, Balkans, and United States of America
56. Israeli Apartheid and the West’s Dwindling Moral Credibility
- Author:
- Andrea Dessì
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Amidst spiralling tensions on the European continent, East-West animosities have returned to dominate daily news cycles. Predictably, this has revived rhetoric on competing political systems and norms, giving rise to a flurry of reporting contrasting Western democracy’s support for the “rules-based international order” vs an informal “alliance of autocracies” led by Russia and China which embrace military might or economic and political blackmail in “a bid to make the world safe for dictatorship”, as recently opinionated the Washington Post.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, International Law, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, and Mediterranean
57. Europe’s Post-Cold War Order Is No More
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to recognise the independence of the self-styled separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas may very well be the beginning of the end of Ukraine as an independent nation. For Ukraine, a nation of almost 44 million people, catastrophe looms large on the horizon. For Europe, these events are the harbinger of the end of an era. Europe’s post-Cold War order is no more.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Caucasus, Balkans, and United States of America
58. Inclusion of Women in the FY22 NDAA (P.L. 117-81)
- Author:
- Hans Hogrefe, Sahana Dharmapuri, and Cassandra Zavislak
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Our Secure Future
- Abstract:
- Congress is currently discussing the inclusion of women in the current NDAA. Read our brief summary of specific references to the inclusion of women in the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2022 (NDAA, P.L. 117-81). The NDAA emphasizes attention to sexual and gender based violence in the U.S. military and creates a pilot program to assess barriers to women’s participation in partner nation defense and security forces based on the WPS Act. The FY22 NDAA is making some important changes to the implementation of the Women, Peace and Security Act (P.L. 115-68): Requires Congressional briefing on the implementation status of the recommendations set forth in the report of the Independent Review Commission on Sexual Assault in the Military. Improves prosecution on how sexual harassment and assault within the U.S. military. Establishes WPS pilot program to support the implementation of the WPS Act of 2017. Requires a study of US Security Cooperation Programs focused on Afghanistan in accordance with the WPS Act of 2017 Requires DEI data collection Authorizes professional development
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Women, Sexual Violence, Inclusion, and WPS
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
59. Policy Papers by Women of Color: Decolonizing International Development
- Author:
- Tamara White, Aisha White, Gabrielle B. Gueye, Daniet Moges, and Eliza Gueye
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
- Abstract:
- This series explores a handful of scenarios where colonial legacies surface in international development and humanitarian aid work, from staffing and institution building to food aid and global tourism. Exploring these topics and seeking to deconstruct the systems and structures that impede success in development and humanitarian efforts is critically important in ensuring that we ultimately meet global goals and restore integrity to our sector. Many believe international development and humanitarian aid are irreconcilable and that this work is an extension of colonialism, but our constituency believes that there is hope in transforming the sector and shifting power to those who should rightfully own this work and reap the benefits of development.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Tourism, Culture, Neoliberalism, Decolonization, Institutions, COVID-19, and Food Assistance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
60. The Persistence of QAnon in the Post-Trump Era: An Analysis of Who Believes the Conspiracies
- Author:
- PRRI Staff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The right-wing QAnon conspiracy movement emerged on the internet in late 2017. While followers of the QAnon movement claim a variety of different beliefs, the main threads of QAnon’s core theory are that a network of Satan-worshipping pedophiles control the government and media, and that a coming “storm” will sweep them out of power.[1] The QAnon movement centered former President Donald Trump as its key leader, and said he was secretly fighting to unmask the evildoers who controlled the political and economic systems of power. Perhaps the most visible role QAnon has played was in the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol, from which the “QAnon shaman” became an iconic image. Fortunately, the goal of keeping Trump as president despite his electoral defeat was not achieved. Even through Trump leaving office, major social media platforms banning QAnon activity, and the leader of the movement, called “Q,” disappearing from the internet, QAnon has continued to thrive on alternative platforms with a handful of influencers leading the group.[2] PRRI data also shows that the proportion of Americans who believe, or are at least open to believing, QAnon conspiracies held mostly steady throughout 2021.
- Topic:
- QAnon, Conspiracy Theory, Political Extremism, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- United States of America and North America
61. The European Banks’ Role in the Financial Crisis of 2007-8: A Critical Assessment
- Author:
- Photis Lysandrou
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007, opinion has been divided over whether its root cause was credit arbitrage or safe asset demand. New research on the European banks' role in the crisis may finally help to resolve the issue. Far from being peripheral players in the crisis, European banks were deeply implicated in its causal origins as evidenced by their activities in the two US debt markets that were at the heart of the crisis: those for collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and for asset backed commercial paper (ABCP). These activities would seem to lend weight to the credit arbitrage story, a conclusion that has been reached by several authors. However, it is a conclusion only made possible by ignoring the connection between the federal funds rate and the rate of ABCP demand from the institutional money market mutual funds (MMMFs) in the pre-crisis era. This paper argues that when this connection is closely examined, it turns out that the evidence surrounding the European banks' role in the financial crisis gives greater weight to the safe asset demand explanation of the crisis.
- Topic:
- Markets, Financial Crisis, Banks, Debt Securities, Assets, and Federal Funds Rate
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
62. The evolving contribution of R&D, advertising and capital expenditures for US-listed firms’ growth in sales, 1979-2018: A quantile regression analysis
- Author:
- Joel Rabinovich
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- This article presents new insights on the evolving contribution of different types of investments to the growth in sales of US nonfinancial listed firms during the 1979-2018 period. By means of quantile regressions it is observed an increasing contribution over time of intangible investment vis-à-vis a decline in capital expenditure both for high-growth and slow-growth firms. However, the impact of different types of intangible investment differs depending on the kind of firm. Whereas research and development (R&D) has a positive contribution for high-growth firms, only advertising has a positive effect for their slow-growth peers.
- Topic:
- History, Investment, Research and Development, Firm Growth, Quantile Regression, and Intangibles
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
63. A US failure in Ukraine Crisis could lead to a conflagration in Middle East, Asia
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- China could learn that US determination is melting away, and its threats can be ignored. An attack on Taiwan could follow.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
64. Houthi/Iranian attacks on UAE a response to losses on the Yemen battlefield
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Incensed by recent government gains in Yemen, the Iranians seek to intimidate the UAE into reversing course. At this juncture, it is therefore vital that both the US and Israel offer support for the UAE’s cause.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Yemen, North America, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE
65. Will US-Israel ties withstand possible strains due to the Iranian and Palestinian issues?
- Author:
- Eytan Gilboa
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Despite former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim to a 40-year friendship with President Joe Biden, the latter preferred the new government headed by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
66. US Policy Towards the Yemeni Conflict Must Change
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Re-designating the Houthi movement as a terrorist organization after the drone attack on the UAE is imperative. This, along with overt support for the UAE, would deliver a sharp message and likely have a beneficial effect on Iranian conduct in Vienna.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Yemen, North America, and United States of America
67. Could Biden construct a new world order through détente with Russia?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Such a scenario would give the US a leg up against China’s totalitarianism and expansionist aims, and bridge the age-old schism with Russia
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
68. Comparing Older Adults’ Mental Health Needs and Access to Treatment in the U.S. and Other High-Income Countries
- Author:
- Munira Z. Gunja, Arnav Shah, and Reginald D. Williams II
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Commonwealth Fund
- Abstract:
- Nearly all U.S. adults over 65 have some mental health coverage through Medicare. Whether that coverage is sufficient is in question. Comparing mental health care access and affordability for U.S. Medicare beneficiaries with that for older adults in peer nations could highlight coverage gaps and point to opportunities for improvement.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health Care Policy, Social Policy, and Medicare
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
69. Primary Care in High-Income Countries: How the United States Compares
- Author:
- Molly FitzGerald, Munira Z. Gunja, and Roosa Tikkanen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Commonwealth Fund
- Abstract:
- Primary care providers (PCPs) serve as most people’s first point of contact with the health care system. These clinicians build relationships with their patients over time and help coordinate care delivered by other health care providers.1 Evidence shows that a strong foundation of primary care yields better health outcomes overall, greater equity in health care access and outcomes, and lower per capita health costs.2 But in the United States, decades of underinvestment and a low provider supply, among other problems, have limited access to effective primary care.3 This brief highlights gaps in the U.S. primary care system by comparing its performance to systems in 10 other high-income countries.
- Topic:
- Governance, Health Care Policy, Medicine, and Primary Care
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
70. For a new European growth strategy
- Author:
- Nicolas Goetzmann
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- The early 1990s saw the demise of the Soviet bloc, erasing more than forty years of competition with the United States: the rest of the decade witnessed the economic emergence of the People's Republic of China and the formal advent of the euro area as the economic powerhouse of the European Union. Two decades later, according to data published by the IMF, almost 60% of the world economy is now shared between these three dominant economic areas, the United States, China and the European Union, reshaping the face of the competition for global power.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
71. Nuclear Waste Policy Actions for the 117th Congress and Biden Administration
- Author:
- Matt Bowen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- In the 117th Congress, the United States Senate is evenly divided, 50-50, between the two major political parties, and the margin for control of the US House is small. One nonpartisan—and overdue—policy issue that Congress and the executive branch could focus on is the US nuclear waste management program. The US is currently paying billions to utilities to house spent nuclear fuel (SNF) at operating and shutdown facilities, and high-level waste (HLW) remains at former nuclear weapons complex sites around the country. Add to this the potential for greater future reliance on nuclear power in a decarbonizing economy, and the need to finally get a handle on managing radioactive waste is clear. An earlier report from the Center on Global Energy Policy on the US nuclear waste management program examined larger structural changes that the federal government could pursue to help the program make progress, such as fixing the funding mechanism and updating regulatory standards.[1] This commentary discusses the US program as it stands in the 117th Congress and proposes a series of comparatively smaller actions that could be considered and perhaps pursued on a bipartisan basis in the next few years.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Governance, Leadership, and Nuclear Waste
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
72. US-China Roundtable on Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage
- Author:
- David B. Sandalow, Sally Qiu, and Zhiyuan Fan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- On November 17, 2021, New York time/November 18, 2021, Beijing time, the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and Energy Foundation-China convened an online roundtable on carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) in the United States and China. Scholars, industry officials and policy makers exchanged information and ideas concerning CCUS development in each country. Participants discussed the role of CCUS in achieving net zero emissions, focusing on three topics in particular: CCUS costs, strategies for utilization of carbon dioxide (CO2) and CCUS policies. This report summarizes key points made by participants at the roundtable, which was held under the Chatham House Rule.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
73. Breaking Down the Arguments for and against U.S. Antitrust Legislation
- Author:
- Caitlin Chin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In many areas of the world, including the European Union, United Kingdom, South Korea, and Australia, governments are considering new legislation to check the market power of a few dominant technology platforms. Yet some of the most sweeping proposals are taking place within the U.S. Congress. In October 2020, the majority staff of the House Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial, and Administrative Law published a set of recommendations to promote competition in technology markets, the result of a 16-month investigation that directed attention to the actions of Alphabet (the parent company of Google), Amazon, Apple, and Facebook (now Meta). The House Judiciary Committee advanced six bills in June 2021 that paralleled many of these recommendations, focusing on the anticompetitive impacts of self- preferencing, mergers and acquisitions, data accumulation, and network effects related to digital platforms. Meanwhile, the Senate Judiciary Committee voted to advance the American Innovation and Online Choice Act and Open App Markets Act in early 2022. While antitrust reform has seen broad bipartisan support in Congress, members of both parties have also expressed concerns that these bills might have unintended consequences. For example, many of the newly proposed restrictions would only apply to “covered platforms” that meet certain size or categorical criteria—which, under current market conditions, would primarily include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Meta. In turn, some critics have asserted that unequal rules could create arbitrary winners or losers in the marketplace and even benefit foreign competitors or bad actors at the expense of U.S. technological innovation. To put these issues into context, below is an overview of seven major bills under consideration in the U.S. House and Senate as well as the related challenges, commentary, and controversies that surround them.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Legislation, Antitrust Law, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
74. Cross-Strait and U.S.-Taiwan Relations from the Kuomintang Point of View
- Author:
- Alexander Huang, Eric Huang, Johnny Chiang, Thomas J. Christensen, and Andrew Nathan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Speaker Bios: Alexander Huang is the Associate Professor of the Institute of Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, the Chairman & CEO of the Council on Strategic & Wargaming Studies, and Special Advisor to the Chairman & Director of International Affairs at Kuomintang (KMT). Dr. Huang received his BA in Political Science at Soochow University in 1982, earned a MA from the Institute of Strategic Studies at Tamkang University 1984 and a MSFS from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University in 1988. In 1994, Dr. Huang received a PhD in Political Science from George Washington University. Eric Yu-Chua Huang is the KMT’s Representative in Washington D.C., and an entrepreneur. Mr. Huang previously served as the party's spokesperson and deputy director of international affairs, a lecturer of International affairs at Tamkang University, and non-residential research fellow at National Policy Foundation. Mr. Huang joined the KMT party headquarters in 2014 after which he served as the international spokesperson for the KMT’s presidential candidate during Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election campaign. Previously, Mr. Huang worked as legislative aide for a KMT legislator representing a constituency in Taiwan’s capital, Taipei City, where his portfolio included national security and foreign relations, as well as constituent services and youth organizing. Mr. Huang graduated from Johns Hopkins University with a Master’s degree in International Relations; he earned his Bachelor’s degree at the University of Virginia majoring in International Relations; in 2018 he was a Visiting Scholar at Fudan University. Johnny C. Chiang was elected the chairman of the KMT to rejuvenate the party in 2020. The KMT ruled Taiwan from 1949 to 2000 and from 2008 to 2016, and is now the main opposition in Taiwan. During August 2018-July 2019, Dr. Chiang was the convener (caucus whip) of KMT Party Caucus in Legislative Yuan. From August in 2016 to January in 2017, he took charge of the secretary of KMT party Caucus in Legislative Yuan. In 2016, he held the post of the convener in Foreign and National Defense Committee; Previously, in 2013 he ever served as the convener in Internal Administration Affair Committee. Besides, as to international inter- parliamentary exchanging activities, he currently serves as the chairmen of R.O.C(Taiwan)-United Kingdom Inter-Parliamentary Amity Association. He is also the chairman of R.O.C(Taiwan)-Singapore Inter-Parliamentary Amity Association. Dr. Chiang received his Ph. D. in International Studies from the University of South Carolina and his master degree of public and international affairs from the University of Pittsburgh. He has previously served as Minister of Government Information Office (GIO) as well as Government Spokesman of Executive Yuan, ROC (2010- 2011); Deputy Executive Director of Chinese Taipei APEC Study Center (2009-2010); Director of International Affairs Department, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research(2005-2010); Deputy Secretary-General, Chinese Taipei National Committee of Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) (2005-2010); Associate professor, department of political science at the Soochow University in Taipei (2003-2010). In 2021, Dr. Johnny Chiang was named by Time magazine to be one of the "100 emerging leaders who are shaping the future." In 2006, Dr. Chiang was selected as the Top 10 rising stars in Taiwan. His research interests widely cover such areas as international political economy, international organizations (especially APEC and WTO), Asia- Pacific studies, cross-Strait relations, globalization and international relations theory. This event is sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by the China and the World Program.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
75. Russia in the Indo-Pacific: Perspectives from China, Russia, and the United States
- Author:
- Gaye Christoffersen, Ying Liu, Artyom Lukin, Elena Feditchkina Tracy, and Elizabeth Wishnick
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Russia’s role in the Indo-Pacific is an understudied topic—while much of the discussion of Russia in Asia typically focuses on its response to geopolitical rivalries, the volume addresses ideational factors in Russia’s relations with regional and global powers, the domestic drivers of Russia’s Asia-Pacific policy, as well as the complex iteration of regional identities in Asia-Pacific Russia and in the Sino-Russian partnership. Contributors to this volume are based across Russia, China, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the USA, drawing on a range of multinational perspectives and theoretical approaches. Panelists at this event will present views from Beijing, Vladivostok, and the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
76. How Transnational Education Transforms Privilege
- Author:
- Yingyi Ma and Yao Lu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- This study examines two cohorts of Chinese international students studying in the U.S. whose privilege is challenged and sometimes upended before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research questions the dominant framing of privilege centering on the notion of ease, as informed by the western scholarship on elite education. Drawing from the power structure of international education and rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, this study concludes that transnational education infuses much anxiety and fragility into the lived experiences of international students, who have experienced the status loss from the privileged majority to the marginalized minority. COVID had exacerbated this loss. This study contributes to the scholarship on elites by interrogating the western-centric notion of privilege. This event is part of the 2021-2022 lecture series on “COVID-19 Impacts and Responses in China and Beyond” and is sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by Columbia's China Center for Social Policy.
- Topic:
- Education, Geopolitics, Students, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
77. Prospects for Japan's National Security Policy in 2022 and the US-Japan Alliance
- Author:
- Yuki Tatsumi and Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The US and Japan convened the Security Consultative Committee (more commonly known as "2 plus 2") on January 6. The SCC Joint Statement that was released afterwards set goals for the Alliance that were most ambitious in recent years. How would it affect Japan as it enters the period of revising its three key national security documents? What are the challenges for Tokyo as it moves forward, and for the Alliance writ large?
- Topic:
- National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and United States of America
78. Financial Cold War – A Book Talk
- Author:
- James Fok and Shang-Jin Wei
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- James Fok will give a talk regarding the publication of his recent book, Financial Cold War, where he addresses internationalizing China’s capital markets: the geopolitical realities; China’s financial challenges: implications for the global financial sector; China-US geopolitical tensions: challenges for international financial institutions; and implications and opportunities for US-China relations.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Finance, and Capital
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
79. How Inequality and Polarization Interact: America’s Challenges Through a South African Lens
- Author:
- Brian Levy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, toxic interactions between persistent inequality, racial tensions, and political polarization have undercut the promise of South Africa’s so-called rainbow miracle transition from apartheid to democracy. South Africa’s recent history sheds light on the United States’ recent political travails. It illustrates how interactions between inclusion and inequality on the one hand and political ideas and entrepreneurship on the other can fuel positive spirals of hope, economic dynamism, and political legitimacy—but can also trigger vicious, downward spirals of disillusion, anger, and political polarization. South Africa was able to transition from a society structured around racial oppression into a nonracial democracy whose new government promised “a better life for all.” Especially remarkable was the speed with which one set of national ideas appeared to give way to its polar opposite. From a society marked by racial dominance and oppression, there emerged the aspiration to build an inclusive, cooperative social order, underpinned by the principles of equal dignity and shared citizenship. In the initial glow of transition, South Africa’s citizens could hope for a better life for themselves and their children. In time, though, the promise wore thin. It became increasingly evident that the economic deck would continue to be stacked, and that the possibility of upward mobility would remain quite limited. Fueled by massive continuing inequities in wealth, income, and opportunity, South Africans increasingly turned from hope to anger. In the United States, a steady and equitably growing economy and a vibrant civil rights movement had fostered the hope of social and economic inclusion. But that hope turned to anger as the benefits of growth became increasingly skewed from the 1980s onward. In 2019, the U.S. economy was more unequal than it had been since the 1920s. Younger generations could no longer expect that their lives would be better than those of their parents. Such economic adversity and associated status anxiety can trigger a heightened propensity for us-versus-them ways of engaging the world. In both South Africa and the United States, polarization was fueled by divisive political entrepreneurs, and in both countries, these entrepreneurs leveraged inequality in ways that added fuel to the fire. In the 2010s, South Africa went through a new ideational reckoning, in part to correct the view that the transition to democracy had washed the country’s apartheid history clean. But opportunistic political entrepreneurs also pushed an increasingly polarized and re-racialized political discourse and pressure on public institutions, with predictable economic consequences. South Africa’s economy slid into sustained stagnation. Paralleling South Africa, America’s divisive political entrepreneurs also cultivated an us-versus-them divisiveness. However, unlike in South Africa, political entrepreneurs and economic elites in the United States also used divisive rhetoric as a way to persuade voters to embrace inequality-increasing policies that might otherwise not have won support. By the late 2010s, the risks were palpable in both South Africa and the United States of an accelerating breakdown of the norms and institutions that sustain inclusive political settlements. For South Africa, the reversals were not wholly unexpected, given the country’s difficult inheritance—though a recent turn away from angry populism suggests that, paradoxically, the rawness and recency of the anti-apartheid struggle and triumph might perhaps offer some immunization against a further-accelerating a downward spiral. But for the United States, the converse may be true. Increases in inequality since the 1980s, and their attendant social and political consequences, have been largely self-inflicted wounds. Complacency bred of long stability may, for decades, have been lulling the country into political recklessness at the inequality-ethnicity intersection, a recklessness that risks plunging the country into disaster. But this paper’s analysis is not all gloom and doom. South Africa’s escape from the shackles of apartheid teaches that, even in the most unlikely settings, downward spirals of despair and anger can transmute into virtuous spirals of hope. The country’s first fifteen years of democracy also show that, once a commitment to change has taken hold, making the shift to an inclusion-supporting economy is less daunting than it might seem. Reforms that foster “good enough inclusion” can be enough to provide initial momentum, with the changes themselves unfolding over time—and an initial round of change can bring in its wake a variety of positive knock-on effects. But lessons can be overlearned. Mass political mobilization was pivotal to South Africa’s shaking loose the shackles of apartheid—and new calls to the barricades might seem to be the obvious response to current political and governmental dysfunction. However, different times and different challenges call for different responses. In both contemporary South Africa and contemporary America, the frontier challenge is not to overthrow an unjust political order but to renew preexisting formal commitments to the idea that citizenship implies some shared purpose. Renewal of this kind might best be realized not by confrontation but rather by a social movement centered around a vision of shared citizenship, a movement that views cooperation in pursuit of win-win possibilities not as weakness but as the key to the sustainability of thriving, open, and inclusive societies.
- Topic:
- Governance, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America
80. U.S. Strategy and Economic Statecraft: Understanding the Tradeoffs
- Author:
- Christopher S. Chivvis and Ethan Kapstein
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Few would dispute that U.S. economic policy has enormous consequences for America’s national security and role in the world. But economic policy is too often made without a clear picture of the strategic tradeoffs it entails. The purpose of this paper is to help clarify some of these tradeoffs by considering three alternative models of U.S. economic statecraft. The first model examined here, America First, has several national security and economic disadvantages. It would not only antagonize some of Washington’s key military allies but probably also undermine U.S. international competitiveness. It might even induce countries to turn their economic attention toward China, reducing the United States’ global influence accordingly. A better approach would be a blend of two other models, namely alliance economics and globalization 2.0. Together these approaches could help orient the United States for the geopolitical challenges of the next decade. By emphasizing commercial relations with U.S. military allies, such a blend would recall Article 2 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which calls for international economic cooperation among NATO member states. And by leading a reformed multilateral system, the United States would again put itself at the center of the rules-based global economic order that brought prosperity to millions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Geopolitics, Economy, Economic Cooperation, and Strategy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
81. U.S.-China Technological “Decoupling”: A Strategy and Policy Framework
- Author:
- Jon Bateman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- A partial “decoupling”2 of U.S. and Chinese technology ecosystems is well underway. Beijing plays an active role in this process, as do other governments and private actors around the world. But the U.S. government has been a primary driver in recent years with its increased use of technology restrictions: export controls, divestment orders, licensing denials, visa bans, sanctions, tariffs, and the like. There is bipartisan support for at least some bolstering of U.S. tech controls, particularly for so-called strategic technologies, where Chinese advancement or influence could most threaten America’s national security and economic interests. But what exactly are these strategic technologies, and how hard should the U.S. government push to control them? Where is the responsible stopping point—the line beyond which technology restrictions aimed at China do more harm than good to America? These are vexing questions with few, if any, clear answers. Yet the United States cannot afford simply to muddle through technological decoupling, one of the most consequential global trends of the early twenty-first century. The U.S. technology base—foundational to national well-being and power—is thoroughly enmeshed with China in a larger, globe-spanning technological web. Cutting many strands of this web to reweave them into new patterns will be daunting and dangerous. Without a clear strategy, the U.S. government risks doing too little or—more likely—too much to curb technological interdependence with China. In particular, Washington may accidentally set in motion a chaotic, runaway decoupling that it cannot predict or control. Sharper thinking and more informed debates are needed to develop a coherent, durable strategy. Today, disparate U.S. objectives are frequently lumped together into amorphous constructs like “technology competition.” Familiar terms like “supply chain security” often fail to clarify such basic matters as which U.S. interests must be secured and why. Important decisions are siloed within opaque forums (like the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States [CFIUS]), narrow specialties (like export control law), or individual industries (like semiconductors), concealing the bigger picture. The traditional concerns of “tech policy” and “China policy” receive outsized attention, while second-order implications in other areas (such as climate policy) get short shrift. And as China discourse in the United States becomes more politically charged, arguments for preserving technology ties are increasingly muted or not voiced at all. This report aims to address these gaps and show how American leaders can navigate the vast, perilous, largely unmapped terrain of technological decoupling. First, it gives an overview of U.S. thinking and policy—describing how U.S. views on Chinese technology have evolved in recent years and explaining the many tools that Washington uses to curb U.S.- China technological interdependence. Second, it frames the major strategic choices facing U.S. leaders—summarizing three proposed strategies for technological decoupling and advocating a middle path that preserves and expands America’s options. Third, it translates this strategy into implementable policies and processes—proposing specific objectives for U.S. federal agencies and identifying the technology areas where government controls are (or are not) warranted. The report also highlights many domestic investments and other self-improvement measures that must go hand in hand with restrictive action.
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Authoritarianism, Economy, Espionage, Military, and Interdependence
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
82. The Digital Silk Road and China’s Influence on Standard Setting
- Author:
- Alex He
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- China is striving to become a leader in international standard setting, and the Digital Silk Road, part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative to expand its global infrastructure and markets, is key to realizing this goal. Both roads depend on standard connectivity, fuelled by Chinese private companies that are the driving force behind China’s growing role as a leader in technology development and shaping standards in both domestic and global markets. However, China faces strong competition to gain more influence in international standard-setting bodies, which are dominated by the European Union and the United States.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Digital Economy, Trade, Digital Culture, Silk Road, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
83. Untapped Innovation? The Racial and Gender Divides That Hinder the U.S. Knowledge Economy
- Author:
- Alexander Kersten and Gabrielle Athanasia
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States’ innovative spirit rests on a complex network of economic rules favoring market-based competition, predictable legal arrangements for patenting and securing intellectual property, and incentives for investors. It also relies on a robust university system that provides the requisite educational training and facilities to carry out research and development (R&D). Maintaining this network fundamentally requires a focus on early education, especially in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). A more inclusive innovation economy also demands greater attention to communities of color, who are often poorly connected to the innovation economy; women, who are underrepresented in the innovation economy; and those in regions that do not yet share in the prosperity of the United States’ innovation clusters. To build a more inclusive innovation-based economy, policymakers should foster equitable access to early childhood STEM education. They should encourage the expansion of technology transfer programs across universities and colleges, including historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs), and connect them to their regions’ economic growth. Policymakers, academia, and industry leaders should also encourage minorities and women to participate in the patenting and venture systems that support the innovation economy. Renewing American innovation means making opportunity as universal as the talent that seeks it.
- Topic:
- Economics, Gender Issues, Race, Labor Issues, Discrimination, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
84. Counterterrorism from the Sky? How to Think Over the Horizon about Drones
- Author:
- Erol Yayboke and Christopher Reid
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- August 31, 2021, marked the end of the United States’ two-decade military presence in Afghanistan. It also marked the end of U.S. military and intelligence eyes and ears on the ground in a place known to be a safe haven for violent extremist groups. In Afghanistan and other areas where the United States lacks a persistent, physical presence, the Biden administration announced a pivot to “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism operations (OTH- CT) that rely heavily on stand-off assets, such as overhead satellite technology and airpower, in the absence of eyes and ears. While the use of drones—or “remotely piloted aircraft” (RPAs)—to target potential terrorist threats seems to be a cost-effective approach from a military perspective, their use has come under increasing pressure from Capitol Hill, human rights and humanitarian organizations, and others for their effects on civilian populations. Military action almost always carries risk of collateral damage, but the disproportionate civilian impact associated with RPAs is not only troubling from rights and humanitarian perspectives, but it also calls into question the strategic, longer-term rationale of using them for counterterrorism purposes in the first place. Congressional leaders sent a letter to the president on January 20, 2022, about the ongoing OTH-CT strategy review. In it, they point out that “while the intent of U.S. counterterrorism policy may be to target terrorism suspects who threaten U.S. national security, in too many instances, U.S. drone strikes have instead led to unintended and deadly consequences—killing civilians and increasing anger towards the United States.” They, therefore, call on the administration to “review and overhaul U.S. counterterrorism policy to center human rights and the protection of civilians, align with U.S. and international law, prioritize non-lethal tools to address conflict and fragility, and only use force when it is lawful and as a last resort.” Reconciling the risks and implications of RPA strikes is necessary for genuinely implementing President Biden’s calls for a “targeted, precise strategy that goes after terror.” In doing so, the administration also needs to address concerns over civilian casualties alongside meaningful and justifiable military utilization of RPAs. Using RPAs against those who pose an imminent threat to the United States or its allies and partners is sometimes necessary and appropriate, especially in scenarios that are high-risk for crewed aircraft or ground forces. So why wouldn’t the United States use RPAs more broadly at low risk to blood and treasure? Why put soldiers in danger when we can extensively monitor threats and eventually address them from a remotely piloted aircraft high above? The answers are at once simple (e.g., impact on civilians) and complicated (e.g., limited military alternatives), exposing a gulf in understanding and approach to RPA utilization between the advocacy community (and some congressional leaders) and military and intelligence planners. This CSIS brief explores the challenge ahead for the Biden administration. It starts with a contextualization of the OTH-CT strategy review, followed by assessments of the short- and longer-term risks associated with RPA utilization and how to think about risk itself. Offering evidence and framing throughout, the brief ends by detailing two sets of recommendations
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Drones
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
85. Creating an Enabling Environment for Sustainable Water Infrastructure Financing
- Author:
- Conor M. Savoy and Janina Staguhn
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Water presents a significant global development challenge as crises over resources and access to clean water are becoming more extreme due to climate change. To reach the most disadvantaged communities in rural areas, adequate infrastructure is going to be integral. It is estimated that water infrastructure will require an additional $22.5 trillion by 2050, and to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, financing would need to triple to $114 billion per year. As with other forms of infrastructure, water requires more than simply building reservoirs, pipes, and holding tanks. For true sustainable infrastructure, donors and local governments should also invest in support to maintain infrastructure and create a regulatory environment that enables continued improvement. To successfully finance water infrastructure, there must be an understanding of what the current financing landscape looks like and how the United States, its Group of Seven (G7) allies, and multilateral partners should prioritize financing, especially on a local level.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Cooperation, Water, Infrastructure, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
86. What Does $40 Billion in Aid to Ukraine Buy?
- Author:
- Mark F. Cancian
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Congress has approved $40 billion in aid for Ukraine and other countries affected by the conflict―the sixth aid package since the war began. A major change is that this package looks ahead months rather than weeks. The aid package provides $19 billion for immediate military support to Ukraine, continuing the effort that has been vital to sustaining Ukrainian resistance, and $3.9 billion to sustain U.S. forces deployed to Europe. The package also contains about $16 billion for economic support to Ukraine, global humanitarian relief, and a wide variety of international programs as well as $2 billion for long-term support to NATO allies and DOD modernization programs. Although some elements of the aid package will be available quickly, many will take years to fully implement. This raises questions about why long-term elements could not have gone through the regular congressional authorization and budget processes.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Military Spending, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America
87. The Pillars Necessary for a Strong Domestic Semiconductor Industry
- Author:
- Sujai Shivakumar, Charles Wessner, and Thomas Howell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- All major U.S. defense systems and platforms rely on semiconductors for their performance, and the erosion of U.S. capabilities in microelectronics is a direct threat to the United States’ ability to defend itself and its allies. The COMPETES and USICA legislation, currently being reconciled in Congress, represents a national strategy to secure U.S. competitiveness and national security in the twenty-first century. Both the House and Senate legislation call for $52 billion to support U.S.-based semiconductor research and production. They also authorize several programs to both expand U.S. semiconductor fabrication capacity and support the continued research and development (R&D) of advanced chips. The key question is how these intentions can best be turned into reality. There are several challenges that the domestic semiconductor industry confronts, such as international competition, capital investment requirements, workforce needs, gaps in the supply chain, and the shortfall in venture capital funding and technical support needed to enable commercialization of promising technologies.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Innovation, Industrialization, and Defense Industry
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
88. U.S. Defense Posture in the Middle East
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones and Seamus P. Daniels
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- There are growing calls for a decrease in the U.S. military presence in the Middle East. Proponents of a major reduction of forces argue that it is necessary because of growing competition with China in the Indo-Pacific and Russia in Europe, a declining U.S. reliance on Gulf oil and gas, a reduced threat from terrorist groups, and a need to focus on diplomacy rather than military force. To inform the debate over the United States’ military presence in the Middle East, this report assesses three posture options for U.S. forces in the region. This report finds that the United States should keep a notable but tailored presence in the Middle East to contain the further expansion of Chinese and Russian military power and to check the actions of Iran and terrorist organizations that threaten the United States and its allies and partners.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
89. Pushed to Extremes: Domestic Terrorism amid Polarization and Protest
- Author:
- Catrina Doxsee, Seth G. Jones, Jared Thompson, Grace Hwang, and Kateryna Halstead
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- There has been a significant rise in the number of domestic terrorist attacks and plots at demonstrations in the United States, according to new CSIS data. The result is escalating violence in U.S. cities between extremists from opposing sides, a major break from historical trends. In 2021, over half of all domestic terrorist incidents occurred in the context of metropolitan demonstrations. In addition, the most frequent targets of attacks were government, military, and law enforcement agencies, who are increasingly at the center of domestic terrorism by extremists of all ideologies.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Polarization, and Domestic Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
90. U.S. Strategy: Rebalancing Global Energy between Europe, Russia, and Asia and U.S. Security Policy in the Middle East and the Gulf
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine has already shown how dangerous it is for the U.S. to assume that it can rebalance its forces to one region and count on a lasting peace or detente in others. It now is all too clear that U.S. strategy must continue to focus on Europe as well as China. What is less clear is the extent to which the Ukraine War is an equal warning that the U.S. must have a truly global strategy – and one that continues to focus on other critical regions like the Middle East. The sudden escalation of the Ukraine crisis into a major regional conflict and the need for political and diplomatic support in the UN as well as for sanctions are warnings that much of the U.S. success in deterrence and defense lies in creating long-term global diplomatic and political support as well as true and lasting strategic partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America
91. Bridging U.S.-Led Alliances in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific: An Inter-theater Perspective
- Author:
- Luis Simon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Although U.S. strategic competition with China and Russia is often presented as a challenge with two separate fronts, this brief argues that the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theaters are increasingly linked. Insofar as preserving a favorable balance of power in these two regions hinges largely on U.S. power, and as long as they both continue to exercise a significant pressure on U.S. defense resources, their alliance and deterrence architectures should be looked at from an inter-theater perspective. Thus, optimally managing atwo-front challenge would require a serious effort to bridge U.S.-led alliances in both regions.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Hegemony, Alliance, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
92. Political Prisoners to Ortega’s Narrative
- Author:
- José Luis Rocha
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In Nicaragua, the story of a government fighting against the U.S. capitalist empire exposes deep contradictions.
- Topic:
- Government, Prisons/Penal Systems, Domestic Politics, Political Prisoners, Empire, and Daniel Ortega
- Political Geography:
- Central America, Nicaragua, and United States of America
93. Integration with the United States or Latin American Independence?
- Author:
- David Barkin and Alberto Betancourt
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- At the last Community of Latin American and Caribbean States meeting, Mexico’s president proposed contradicting relationships with North America.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
94. For Hemispheric Unity, a Change in U.S. Foreign Policy is Needed
- Author:
- Brett J. Kyle and Andrew G. Reiter
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the face of a new war in Europe, shoring up support in Latin America will not be as easy as the Biden administration thinks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Latin America, and United States of America
95. Making the Dominican Republic Great Again?
- Author:
- Lorgia García-Peña
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Dominican government has always aligned itself with white supremacism, following the United States’ lead on immigration policies towards Haitians.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Border Control, and White Supremacy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and United States of America
96. Why Haiti Advocacy Needs New Strategies
- Author:
- Mark Schuller
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As the Biden administration continues to ignore Haitian civil society proposals for a pathway out of crisis, confronting white supremacy across borders is essential.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Borders, Crisis Management, and White Supremacy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America
97. U.S. Immigration Detention System: “A Living Hell”
- Author:
- Joseph Nevins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A historical and contemporary look at migrant incarceration and the detainees pushing for change inside and beyond the system.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Immigration, Border Control, and Detention
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
98. Achieving Inclusive and Innovative Growth with Competition Policies
- Author:
- Minsoo Han and Subin Kim
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, inequality has grown worse worldwide. Recent studies have pointed out weakening market competition and deepening industrial concentration as one of factors for this phenomenon. Therefore, the role of competition policies in promoting market competition should also be considered as a countermeasure against deepening inequality beyond the traditional view about competition policies. Against this backdrop, we empirically analyze cases of the US, the EU and Korea, and then propose a competition policy direction to achieve inclusive and innovative growth pursued by the Korean government.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Economic Growth, Innovation, Inclusion, and Economic Competition
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, United States of America, and European Union
99. China's New Trade Strategy amid US-China Confrontation and Implications
- Author:
- Sang Baek Hyun, Wonho Yeon, Suyeob Na, Young Sun Kim, and Yunmi Oh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- In 2021, China has reached the point of entering a new stage of socialist development by declaring the achievement of the goal of building ‘a comprehensive well-off society’. Since the reform and opening up of China, the paradigm of economic and social development is facing the greatest turning point from ‘getting rich first’ to ‘common prosperity’. As the US checks on China intensify during this period of economic transition in China, China is pursuing a new trade strategy to respond to it. In order to understand the changes in the global trade environment in the era of the US-China conflict, it is necessary to understand both the US checks with China and China's trade strategy to respond to them. Most of the recent US-China conflicts are analyzed from the perspective of the US checking in with China, but it is necessary to take a balanced look at what kind of countermeasures China is seeking in order to correctly forecast and prepare for changes in the global trade environment in the future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Global Markets, Trade, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
100. Analysis of U.S. International Economic Policies and its Implications
- Author:
- Gu Sang Kang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study analyzes and evaluates the impact of foreign economic policies implemented during the Trump administration's four-year tenure, and aims to predict the direction of international economic policies under the Biden administration launched following the 2020 presidential election. The former President Trump put 'America First' as the slogan of economic policies and imposed import restrictions and tariffs on trading partners based on Sections 201, 232, and 301 of the U.S. trade acts. In addition, the Trump administration strongly promoted renegotiation, claiming that some existing trade agreements had been concluded unfavorably to the U.S. Furthermore, the Trump administration promoted the standardization of digital trade rules and the expansion of digital taxation in order to support the expansion of digital trade. Through the empirical analysis, we find that the Trump administration's tariff measures had a somewhat positive effect on the U.S. industrial employment, but it is difficult to say that the policy effect that President Trump initially expected was achieved as the measures also had a negative effect on industrial production. Moreover, we find that the tax reform had only a short-term effect in reducing the U.S. direct investment to foreign countries. Like the Trump administration, the Biden administration's international economic policy directions are showing strong protectionist perspectives such as maintaining tariffs on Chinese imports and reorganization of the global supply chains centered on the U.S. Based on our analysis, there are three policy implications. First, it is necessary to strengthen digital trade cooperation with middle power countries participating in the WTO e-commerce negotiations along with a detailed analysis and review of the economic impacts. Second, Korea needs to take advantage of the benefits provided by the U.S. federal government and strengthen cooperation in the supply chain based on norms with the U.S. Finally, Korea needs to reach an amicable agreement with the U.S. on trade remedies that have already been applied by raising the need to strengthen its supply chain with the U.S.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Digital Economy, Economic Policy, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, Industry, Protectionism, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America