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1542. The Ukraine Example: Circumstances Matter for Effective Security Assistance
- Author:
- Ethan Kessler
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- US aid would not have been nearly as effective without Ukraine’s efforts to improve its military prior to the 2022 Russian invasion. US security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s all-out invasion in February 2022 has been substantial, but was not sufficient to guarantee Ukraine’s initial military success in the war. Data reveals that US security assistance to Ukraine, which mainly consisted of nonproliferation-related aid before 2014, increased after Russia’s invasion of Crimea that year. However, Ukraine’s failures against Russia in Crimea and later in eastern Ukraine were largely due to an undermanned, underequipped, and undertrained Ukrainian military. Ukraine’s focus on remedying these problems, along with increased combat experience, principally drove Ukrainian military improvements by 2022. These internal changes, as well as Russia’s poor military organization and force employment in the first phase of its 2022 invasion, are essential for understanding the contributions of US equipment and weapons to Ukrainian military successes. These lessons are instructive not only for US security assistance to Ukraine, but also for the many other settings where US security assistance is a prominent policy tool.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America
1543. The Case for Inclusive Agricultural Development
- Author:
- Benjamin Allen, Jacqueline Ashby, John Coonrod, and Wawira Njiru
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Amid shifts towards inclusive agricultural development, the Center for Global Food and Agriculture offers policy recommendations for further US government action. Reflecting both the development consensus and the challenges of transformational reform, USAID Administrator Samantha Power announced an ambitious new focus on inclusive development for the agency in 2021. Her announcement followed the publication of a draft policy on local capacity development, which provides a framework for shifting overall organizational approaches to development. The policy helps establish an agencywide understanding of what locally led development means and a unified system for building on local strengths to achieve local goals. Nevertheless, there are substantial and legitimate reasons why inclusive development assistance remains elusive. Recent research from the Brookings Institution provides an excellent summary of the legal and regulatory impediments, including budgetary rigidity, risk mitigation, and the limits of local organizational capacity.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Food, and International Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North America, and United States of America
1544. Memo on an "Economic Article 5" to Counter Authoritarian Coercion
- Author:
- Ivo H. Daalder and Anders Fogh Rasmussen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- The world's democracies need a way to fight back against coercive economic actions by authoritarian governments, argue Ivo Daalder and Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Increasingly, authoritarian countries are using economic coercion against democracies. In recent years, China’s economic coercion of Lithuania and Australia stands out as a prominent example. Russia uses economic levers to achieve geopolitical aims, notably by weaponizing its natural resources. The aim of such coercion is to bend the will of democratic countries. This is a test for the free world. In response, we propose an Economic Article 5 among democracies to counter authoritarian coercion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Economy, Business, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1545. US Commitments in Nutrition and Health for a Better Future
- Author:
- Gloria Dabek, Catherine Bertini, Dan Glickman, and Samanta Dunford
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- The United States has made big pledges for global nutrition. Our white paper offers recommendations to turn commitments into action. Approximately 768 million people faced hunger in 2020, over 100 million more than 2019, and the number of those without sufficient nutrients is even higher. In the United States, diet-related disease accounted for over half of all deaths in 2018. Globally, approximately 45 percent of the deaths of children younger than five are related to undernutrition. For decades, the United States has also experienced a rise in chronic diet-related diseases like diabetes, with disproportionate effects seen in communities of color. And as the COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the link between nutrition and both risk and long-term consequences of pathogen infection, urgency to shift governmental nutrition approaches has never been higher. To strengthen domestic and global nutrition, the United States should catalyze critical change, starting with commitments made at the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit and additional funded programs, extending further to reach a wider subset of all people suffering from nutrition- and hunger-related diseases. This white paper analyzes primary nutrition challenges, particularly issues of health, access, and education, and recommends policy actions that community, federal, private, and academic institutions can take domestically and globally to progress toward a well-nourished future.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Food, and Global Health
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
1546. From Climate Pledges to Transformative Action
- Author:
- Julia Whiting and Ertharin Cousin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Can the United States deliver on its food systems and climate commitments? We offer recommendations to protect the planet and feed the world. The momentous 2021 global convenings on food, climate change, and nutrition—the United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), and the Nutrition for Growth Summit—each prompted new initiatives and funding commitments. But promises alone, no matter how bold or big, are not enough to transform the global food system, end hunger, and prevent climate catastrophe. Acknowledging the unprecedented potential of recent commitments and international attention given to food systems and climate change, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs convened an expert roundtable with representatives from the private, public, academic, and nonprofit sectors to move beyond abstract goals to identify concrete actionable steps for US agrifood stakeholders. This paper outlines three key areas for action that were identified through the roundtable and offers recommendations to the private sector, donor community, civil society, academia, and government.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, and Food
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1547. Combating Global Hunger as an American Foreign Policy Priority
- Author:
- Gloria Dabek and Emily Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- While not traditionally prioritized as a tool of foreign policy, combatting world hunger has high bipartisan support from the American public. Global hunger can often get lost in American foreign policy discussions amid concerns about military engagements, trade relationships, and international cooperation and competition. However, the 2021 Chicago Council Survey found that a majority of Americans believe that combating global hunger should be of some importance to US foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Food, Public Opinion, and Hunger
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1548. Missing or Unseen? Exploring Women’s Roles in Arms Trafficking
- Author:
- Emilia Dungel and Anne-Séverine Fabre
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- The roles of women in arms trafficking have been addressed in broader studies focusing on issues like violent extremism prevention, women offenders, political activism, and transnational crime in relation to drug trafficking and human trafficking. However, there has been little research on this subject from a specific small arms control perspective. Missing or Unseen? Exploring Women’s Roles in Arms Trafficking strives to fill this gap, and examines the extent to which well-established small arms research methods—general population surveys, key informant interviews, and court documentation reviews—can be used to explore arms trafficking through a gender lens. The Report applies these methods in the form of three case studies—in Niger, Ukraine*, and the United States. It finds that the combined use of these methods does help to shed light on specific aspects of women in arms trafficking, such as their varied roles, which include high-risk activities and, in a few cases, leadership positions. The study also offers a number of suggestions for future research in this area.
- Topic:
- Crime, Women, Arms Trade, and Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Ukraine, North America, Niger, and United States of America
1549. España en la OTAN: una relación mediatizada por EEUU
- Author:
- Pablo Rey García
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- LaOTAN ha sido percibida principalmente como una organización estadounidense y, en consecuencia, con una gran capacidad de influencia en España desde su entrada en la Alianza Atlántica. Se analiza, hasta qué punto se ha cumplido este estereotipo a lo largo de 40 años desde el ingreso de Españaen la organización, y cómo ésta ha gestionado y lidiado simultáneamente con su membresía atlántica y su relación bilateral con EEUU.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, North America, and United States of America
1550. ¿Un buen aliado? Análisis de la visión estadounidense sobre el rol español en la OTAN
- Author:
- Juan Tovar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- Estados Unidos es el actor más relevante dentro de la OTANy ha condicionado la participación española en la organizacióndesde su ingreso. El artículo analiza desde la perspectiva estadounidense la participación española en la OTAN. Para ello se centra en diferentes factores como serían las declaraciones públicas de los dirigentes estadounidenses en las reuniones bilaterales,la posición de la opinión pública estadounidensey el análisis de diversos objetos de debate como el gasto en defensa, los activos estratégicos españoles, su participación en las diferentes misiones implementadas por la organizacióny la posición española en asuntos y regiones de interéspara Estados Unidos. A pesar de lasdeclaraciones de los líderes estadounidenses sobre el rol españoly la imagen positiva de Españaen la opinión pública estadounidense, se constata un importante margen para su mejora.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Public Opinion, and Defense Spending
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, North America, and United States of America
1551. 40 años dela pertenencia de España a la OTAN: desafíos pasados y futuros de una relación procelosa
- Author:
- Michele Testoni and Alberto Bueno
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- Este artículo explicalos elementos fundamentales de la relación entreEspaña y la OTAN en vista de su 40 aniversario de pertenencia a la Alianza Atlántica.El texto, tanto en su reconstrucción histórica como en su análisis de los desafíos quecaracterizan la postura española en la organización, pretende examinar tres elementosvertebradores de esta relación: la posición ambigua de las élites y la sociedad españolarespecto a la pertenencia a la OTAN y la relación con EEUU; la naturaleza legalista ymultilateral, con un explicita preferencia porla UE, de la política de defensa nacional;yla complejidad del “frente sur”, es decir, el sistema de múltiples y diferentes amenazasa la seguridad deEspañaprocedentes denorte de África, donde la OTAN tiene problemas para dar una respuesta satisfactoria. El artículoconcluye subrayando la inusual relevancia, para una potencia media como España, delos factores domésticos para determinar tanto la postura internacional del país como losaspectos principales de su doctrina militar.
- Topic:
- NATO, Military Affairs, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, and United States of America
1552. How Did Left-Wing Print Culture Experiment with Capitalism?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- While many avant-garde periodicals enthusiastically embraced various aspects of the booming post-WWI economy and technology of the core countries, their imagined readership remained the proletariat or “the masses.” Although the predominantly left-wing avant-garde outlets were overflowing with articles exploring the perspectives opened up by Fordism, Taylorism, standardization, and rationalization, not only did their intended working-class readership experience the everyday regime of “scientific management,” but many of them, especially Hungarian organized workers in the industrial centers of the East Coast, actively fought it. Adopting the approaches of periodical studies, book history, and the cultural history of social life, this presentation has a twofold ambition. First, to understand what kind of political economy was envisioned by the avant-garde journals of the 1920s, especially concerning their interpretation of the distinguishing characteristics of the capitalist economic order. Second, to explore how working-class readers—either trade unionist social democrats or revolutionary communists—understood, re-created, or performed some of the techniques promoted by avant-garde journals: using tactics like speaking choirs, “living journals,” political collages, and workers’ photography to critique that same economic reality of post-WWI capitalism. Through the study of hitherto largely unexplored primary sources, including avant-garde periodicals and leaflets, editorial material, secret police accounts, Comintern documents, and annotated pages of avant-garde and labor movement publications, this lecture investigates how the avant-garde radical imagination about capitalism resonated in the larger ecosystem of workers’ culture. It also explores the significant role of centers like New York City—a global hub of avant-garde periodicals, the heart of surging Fordist capitalism, and a battlefield for multi-ethnic organized workers, including a large number of Hungarian immigrants—played in the formation of a Hungarian-language counter-hegemonic public sphere.
- Topic:
- Media, Work Culture, Leftist Politics, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Hungary, North America, and United States of America
1553. US Arms Sales Reveal Discord in Taiwan's Defense Strategy
- Author:
- Ethan Kessler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Washington has started selling arms that serve a "porcupine" defense strategy to Taiwan. Whether Taipei fully embraces this new approach remains to be seen. Taiwan, claimed by China as a rogue province and armed by the United States, is at a crossroads. Should it continue buying big-ticket US arms, such as advanced fighter jets and tanks, to counter Chinese forces in case of a blockade or invasion? Taipei’s longstanding conventional strategy, which calls for these kinds of arms, views the ambiguous US defense commitment as concerning. Since Washington may not intervene against a Chinese attack, conventionalists want to hold on to Taiwan’s traditional, long-range weapons. Conventionalists also claim that buying big-ticket arms strengthens Washington’s political commitment to Taiwan. However, officials and experts increasingly see another strategy as prudent. Recent Chinese economic growth and military modernization have greatly enhanced Beijing’s capabilities, to the point that many believe Taiwan could not hold out alone against a Chinese invasion. Reformers thus argue that Taiwan needs to start building its forces around small, easily distributed weapons such as mobile anti-ship missiles and patrol boats and make greater investments in reserve forces and territorial defense. This “porcupine” defense strategy can theoretically buy more time for US forces to arrive in a war. The fate of Taiwan’s military strategy, which also depends greatly on political relations between Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, will help determine the strength of deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. A breakdown in this deterrence could lead to US-China war. The United States not only influences Taiwan’s strategy, but has a great stake in its future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Budget, Defense Spending, and Arms Sales
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1554. World Economy Winter 2022: Strong headwinds for global economic activity
- Author:
- Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Global growth has decelerated over the course of the year under the impact of high energy prices and great uncertainty. Monetary policy, which is being tightened very quickly in view of high inflationary pressure across the board, is now also putting a drag on economic activity. Overall, production remained on an upward trend into the fall, with impetus coming from easing supply bottlenecks and the continuing normalization of activity in those sectors of the economy particularly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Towards the end of the year, however, economic momentum weakened noticeably further. The major advanced economies in particular are currently facing a period of weak economic activity despite considerable fiscal support measures. At the same time, the problems for the Chinese economy remain significant. While global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) at 3.2 percent is expected to grow by 0.3 percentage points more this year than expected in September, we continue to forecast an increase of only 2.2 percent next year. For 2024, our expectation has even been reduced slightly to 3.2 percent, mainly because we do expect the US economy to recover slowly. Inflation is likely to have peaked and is expected to slow significantly over the forecast horizon thanks to lower commodity prices and easing economic tensions. However, underlying inflation is not likely to return to target levels until the end of the forecast period.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Economy, Business, COVID-19, and Emerging Economies
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1555. World Economy Autumn 2022: Global growth falters
- Author:
- Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- In spring 2022, world economic growth came to a standstill amid high inflation, persistent supply bottlenecks and elevated uncertainty. In many countries real wages are declining significantly dampening private consumption even though extra savings accumulated during the pandemic are still available to mitigate the adverse impact to some extent. At the same time financial conditions have also deteriorated as central banks tightened their policies. In China, the strict zero-covid policy and problems in the real estate sector are slowing economic activity. Against this backdrop, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further. We have, again, lowered our forecast and are now expecting global output to increase by only 2.9 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year (calculated on a purchasing power parity basis). The forecast assumes that commodity prices will gradually decline in line with forward prices, which will over time reduce the upward pressure on prices and provides the foundations for an economic upturn in 2024. However, the pass-through of higher commodity prices into consumer prices is probably not yet complete and wage increases are likely to intensify in many countries. Consequently, underlying inflation is likely to remain higher than in the years before the Covid crisis and remain above central bank targets over the forecast horizon.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Business, COVID-19, Zero-COVID, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1556. Why do Preferences for Redistribution Differ Across Countries?
- Author:
- Gianluca Grimalda, Francesco Farina, Anna Conte, and Ulrich Schmidt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- We test for different theories purporting to explain cross-country differences in income redistribution through standardized experimental choices. US Americans and Italians demand less redistribution than Norwegians and Germans, regardless of whether self-interest is relevant. Those earning (or expecting to earn) below-median incomes behave as "libertarians" more frequently in the US and Italy than in Germany and Norway. Above-the-median earners behave similarly across countries. Higher overconfidence by US Americans and Italians further reduces their demand for redistribution under uncertainty. The "Prospect of Upward Mobility" hypothesis holds similarly in all countries. US Americans do not reward individual merit more than others.
- Topic:
- Economic Mobility, Redistribution, Income Distribution, and Behavioral Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Italy, North America, and United States of America
1557. Regional Deprivation and Populism - Evidence from Germany and the U.S.
- Author:
- Michael Bayerlein
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- A widely held view is that increasing globalisation and inequality are fostering support for populist actors. Surprisingly, when focusing on Germany and the U.S., populist voting is highest in less globalised regions with rather equal income distributions. Addressing this puzzle, I ask how the regional variance in populist voting can be explained. In my answer, I introduce the concept of spatial inequality, which describes the regional inequality within countries, and construct a measure of public goods scarcity. I argue that the spatial inequality induced feeling of being left behind is positively correlated with populist voting and that this effect is mitigated by public goods provision. Using county level data to develop spatial inequality and public good scarcity indices, I can provide empirical support for these arguments. The findings have important implications for understanding the sub-national variance in populist voting and the role of relative economic deprivation as well as public goods provision.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Inequality, Populism, Voting, Regional Economy, and Public Goods
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America
1558. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes
- Author:
- Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, and Joschka Wanner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Sanctions, Alliance, and Embargo
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1559. The Consequences of Unilateral Withdrawals from the Paris Agreement
- Author:
- Mario Larch and Joschka Wanner
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- International cooperation is at the core of multilateral climate policy. How is its effectiveness harmed by individual countries dropping out of the global mitigation effort? We develop a multisector structural trade model with emissions from production and a constant elasticity of fossil fuel supply function to simulate the consequences of unilateral withdrawals from the Paris Agreement. Taking into account both direct and leakage effects, we őnd that a US withdrawal would eliminate more than a third of the world emissions reduction (31.8% direct effect and 6.4% leakage effect), while a potential Chinese withdrawal lowers the world emission reduction by 24.1% (11.9% direct effect and 12.2% leakage effect). The substantial leakage is primarily driven by technique effects induced by falling international fossil fuel prices.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
1560. US-Africa Leaders Summit: New Beginning or Old Wine in a New Bottle?
- Author:
- Charles A. Ray
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- The US-Africa Leaders Summit—which included delegates from forty-nine countries and the African Union—was held in Washington, D.C., from Dec. 13–15, 2022. The summit focused on deepening and expanding the US-Africa partnership and giving voice to Africans in meeting current global challenges. The summit addressed substantive issues like climate change, food security, and human rights, without dwelling on America’s concern about Chinese or Russian influence on the continent. While specific details remain to be worked out, the three most important deliverables of the summit were: US support for the African Union to become a member of the G-20; a promise of $55 billion in aid to Africa over the next three years; and a commitment from President Joe Biden to visit Africa in 2023.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Food Security, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North America, and United States of America