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502. Gaza: Israel’s Unwinnable War
- Author:
- Richard Silverstein
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Even if, for argument’s sake, it achieved its war goals, Palestinian resistance will exist wherever there are Palestinians—whether in Sinai, Beirut, Ankara, Tehran or Amman
- Topic:
- Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Axis of Resistance, 2023 Gaza War, and AIPAC
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
503. UNRWA Funding is Burdened with Conditionality
- Author:
- Anne Irfan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The UN agency’s essential humanitarian role lies in the balance thanks to the political contingencies of its donors.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Donors, Funding, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
504. Why Trump's tariff proposals would harm working Americans
- Author:
- Kimberly Clausing and Mary Lovely
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- At the beginning of its history, the United States relied on tariffs—taxes on imported goods—as its major source of government revenue. That changed starting in the early 20th century, with the enactment of the federal income tax and the advent of a new consensus recognizing tariffs as regressive, burdening the working class while leaving untaxed much of the income accruing to the wealthy. At present, less than 2 percent of government revenue in high-income countries comes from import taxes. Today, however, the United States may be on the cusp of reverting to an antiquated approach to funding its government. Presidential candidate Donald Trump is proposing to reduce US reliance on income taxes while increasing our reliance on import tariffs. He proposes extending expiring tax cuts from 2017 and has also suggested possible new rounds of tax cuts. At the same time, he has proposed a ten percent "across-the-board" tariff and a 60 percent or more tariff on imports from China. Together, these policy steps would amount to regressive tax cuts, only partially paid for by regressive tax increases. The tariffs would reduce after-tax incomes by 3.5 percent for those in the bottom half of the income distribution and cost a typical household in the middle of the income distribution about $1,700 in increased taxes each year. If executed, these steps would increase the distortions and burdens created by the rounds of tariffs levied during the first Trump administration (and sustained during the Biden administration), while inflicting massive collateral damage on the US economy. This Policy Brief leverages recent research to provide approximate calculations for the cost of the higher proposed tariffs to US consumers, considering the distribution of these costs across US households and the consequences for US federal revenues. In sum, Trump's tax proposals entail sharply regressive tax policy changes, shifting tax burdens away from the well-off and toward lower-income members of society while harming US workers and industries, inviting retaliation from trading partners, and worsening international relations.
- Topic:
- Elections, Tax Systems, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and Protectionism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
505. The influence of gasoline and food prices on consumer expectations and attitudes in the COVID era
- Author:
- Joanne Hsu
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Food and gasoline prices are extremely salient to consumers, who regularly purchase these goods, and these prices are highly visible. The shared experience of purchasing food and gasoline makes it no surprise that those prices have been blamed for the relatively dismal consumer views of the economy in 2023 amid strong economic indicators, including slowing inflation, low unemployment, and robust growth. At the same time, consumer inflation expectations have eased during this past year. This Policy Brief investigates the role food and gasoline prices play in influencing consumer inflation expectations and economic sentiment, as measured on the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, and focuses on the COVID inflationary episode. The author finds that, although consumer sentiment now appears to be more sensitive to inflation than prior to the pandemic, inflation expectations do not. Even though inflation has waned, consumers still spontaneously comment on the negative impact of high prices on their lives. That said, these persistently negative perceptions about inflation have not translated into persistently high inflation expectations.
- Topic:
- Inflation, COVID-19, Consumer Behavior, and Cost of Living
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
506. Climate action: Implications for factor market reallocation
- Author:
- Robert Z. Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- This paper considers climate policies, not from the perspective of their environmental impacts, but rather their likely effects on labor and investments. While the aggregate impact of the green transition on jobs and investment may be modest, it will require significant reallocation of labor and capital within and across industries. Although the green transition brings new opportunities for employment and investment in renewable technologies, many workers and communities tied to the fossil fuel industry may not benefit from these advances due to skills mismatch and geographic constraints. Both the United States and the European Union acknowledge the importance of achieving “climate justice” and “leaving no one behind” in their decarbonization efforts. However, current policies and resources in the United States may fall short, with inadequate assistance reaching too many communities and a narrow focus on green jobs. In Europe, while the Just Transition Fund complements existing programs, effective implementation of place-based policies remains challenging due to the need for specific, localized responses.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Labor Issues, European Union, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
507. The effect of lawful crossing on unlawful crossing at the US southwest border
- Author:
- Michael A. Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- An increasing number of migrants attempt to cross the US Southwest border without obtaining a visa or any other prior authorization. 2.5 million migrants did so in 2023. In recent years, responding to this influx, US officials have expanded lawful channels for a limited number of these migrants to cross the border, but only at official ports of entry. These expanded lawful channels were intended to divert migrants away from crossing between ports of entry, by foot or across rivers, thereby reducing unlawful crossings. On the other hand, some have argued that expanding lawful entry would encourage more migrants to cross unlawfully. This study seeks to shed light on that debate by assessing the net effect of lawful channels on unlawful crossings. It considers almost 11 million migrants (men, women, and children) encountered at the border crossing the border without prior permission or authorization. Using statistical methods designed to distinguish causation from simple correlation, it finds that a policy of expanding lawful channels to cross the border by 10 percent in a given month causes a net reduction of about 3 percent in unlawful crossings several months later. Fluctuations in the constraints on lawful crossings can explain roughly 9 percent of the month-to-month variation in unlawful crossings. The data thus suggest that policies expanding access to lawful crossing can serve as a partial but substantial deterrent to unlawful crossing and that expanding access can serve as an important tool for more secure and regulated borders.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- North America, Mexico, and United States of America
508. The Evolving Landscape of U.S. Economic Security: The Confluence of Trade, Technology, and National Security
- Author:
- Andrea Viski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the current evolution of U.S. economic security discourse to demonstrate the implications, challenges, and shortcomings of U.S. economic security tools and the catalyzing impact of technology. While component economic security considerations are broad and encompass issues from natural disaster planning to cybersecurity, this paper focuses specifically on the impact of trade and technology in the economic security context. It discusses the main influences and features of U.S. economic security policy as it relates to trade, technology, and the security of the supply chain. The paper includes sections on evolving notions of the dual-use concept; the need to manage and respond to technology flows with more effective strategies, and new foreign policy efforts and tools to strengthen economic security. The paper focuses on the trends forging the path for the United States to define economic security so closely with national security, and in exploring these trends, it delineates how the United States has implemented policies and adopted, reoriented, or created new policy tools designed to strengthen economic security. The paper also explores why the rapid evolution of emerging technologies has played such a defining role. Finally, the paper examines the effectiveness of the U.S. approach to economic security and its challenges and offers insights into how it can be strengthened in the future
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, Trade, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
509. Is Economic Security National Security? Defining South Korea’s Economic Security for Future Industries
- Author:
- June Park
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores how South Korea defines “economic security.” Amidst geopolitical turbulence, the framing of this concept by governments and policy circles around the globe is reflective of the changes in the global economy post-pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine, two critical junctures that have revealed the geo-economic impact of weaponized interdependence. While the Biden administration has laid out U.S. policy intent to combine national security with economic security, specifically on future industries of dual-use nature ranging from chips to EVs, batteries, and generative AI, countries that are on the receiving end of policy implementation are formulating their response to the shifting geoeconomics. This paper unravels South Korea’s framing of economic security and policy response by analyzing legislation on future industries that is critical to the country’s economic growth and standing and the concerted efforts by the state bureaucracy and industry in shaping the concept. The paper draws specifically upon semiconductors in addition to other future industries that are central to the South Korean economy and related legislation in the South Korean National Assembly. It argues that South Korea’s policy response and framing of its economic security has more to do with the protection of industries for the future amid geopolitical turbulence and the reshuffling of global supply chains than traditional security issues related to the U.S.-ROK alliance. Moreover, public anxiety on the pressures toward U.S.-driven trilateral cooperation reveals concerns on a possible backlash from China and the lagging potential of Japan in future industries.
- Topic:
- National Security, Geopolitics, Industry, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
510. South Korea: Caught in the Crosshairs of U.S.−China Competition Over Semiconductors
- Author:
- Paul Triolo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores how countries with advanced semiconductor industries are caught in the middle of the growing U.S.-China competition in technology that is focused on advanced computing. Among them, South Korea and its national champions, Samsung and SK Hynix, have arguably incurred some of the most significant pressure. This paper explores how those firms have billions of dollars of sunk investment in China-based facilities producing cutting-edge memory, and the future of these facilities remains in doubt after a series of U.S. export control measures unleashed by the U.S. Commerce Department starting in October 2022. South Korean companies are also players in other parts of the global semiconductor supply chain, including semiconductor manufacturing tools, and China remains an important market for both components and electronic devices. This paper argues that each country caught between the United States and China in technology competition faces difficult trade-offs in determining how best to support its leading companies while navigating changing and often what is viewed as arbitrary decisions coming from Washington that have already significantly disrupted global supply chains. Finally, at the same time as U.S. export controls are having a major impact on the ability of South Korean companies to retain business operations and market access in China, major front-end manufacturers, particularly Samsung, are also looking to expand their operations in the United States and benefit from U.S. CHIPS Act funding. This paper argues that all of the above dynamics put South Korea in one of the more complex positions as the industry faces continued restructuring, buffeted by both export controls and industrial policies.
- Topic:
- Supply Chains, Economic Security, Semiconductors, and Economic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
511. Economic Security and U.S.-China Competition: The View from North Korea
- Author:
- Rachel Minyoung Lee
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that while North Korea does not discuss “economic security” in domestic contexts or have an established definition of the term, it thoroughly understands that the economy and national security are inseparable. North Korea is essentially unaffected by the typical economic issues that many major economies are grappling with in relation to economic security, but like other countries, it has closely tracked economic security developments and deepening U.S.-China strategic competition for potential political fallout and what opportunities and challenges that may generate. The paper shows that U.S.-China strategic competition has offered unique opportunities to North Korea, including China’s cover against fresh and existing sanctions against North Korea, and economic assistance. Moreover, deteriorating U.S.-China ties provide Pyongyang extra space to consider and put into motion alternative foreign and economic policy paths, namely, shifting away from its three-decade policy of nonalignment with China and normalization of relations with the United States. Also, China appears to be a factor in North Korea’s shift to a more conservative economic policy. Despite the opportunities presented by the U.S.-China divide, however, North Korea is wary of the risks of dependence on China and has tried to build economic resilience at home, for example by launching a national campaign on domestic production and recycling. North Korea’s somewhat cooler handling of China and its proportionately warm treatment of Russia since the Armistice Day celebrations in July is a clear example of North Korea’s China dilemma. This is where North Korea’s recent strengthening of ties with Russia comes into the picture. The paper contends that it is hard to conclude at this point whether North Korea’s moves are aimed at short-term, tactical gains or are part of a longer-term, strategic calculus, but we can be certain of this: it has just as much to gain or lose as any other country affected by economic security and U.S.-China strategic competition, though not in the same ways as other countries.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America
512. Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment
- Author:
- Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- After decades of seeking to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in international relations, the United States is now grappling with a global landscape marked by intense strategic competition and the growing salience of nuclear weapons—problems that will likely persist for years to come. Over the past year, Russia compounded its aggression in Ukraine with nuclear saber-rattling, modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces over the past decade. Furthermore, Russia’s possession of a substantial inventory of theater nuclear weapons continues to threaten regional deterrence. Meanwhile, in Asia, Beijing is pursuing an unprecedented surge in its nuclear capabilities. If current trends persist, China is projected to possess about 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035.1 While China was once viewed as a secondary nuclear power, its substantial investment in its nuclear arsenal—including the launch of a third ballistic missile early-warning satellite in 2022 and advancements in land-based ballistic missiles, aircraft, submarines, and hypersonic missiles—positions China to become a near-equal nuclear power in the coming decade. These trends mark a historic shift. For the first time in its history, the United States must face two near-peer nuclear competitors simultaneously. At the same time, Russia’s suspension of its compliance with the New START agreement in 2023 has significantly weakened the last strategic arms control framework established in the Cold War and post-Cold War eras. This move leaves scant provisions governing the future of nuclear capabilities among the United States and its adversaries. For over half a century, Washington and Moscow negotiated to establish treaties that imposed limits on their nuclear arsenals, aiming to manage their nuclear rivalry and mitigate the risk of nuclear conflict. This process served the national security interests of both sides by curbing weapons and activities that could jeopardize deterrence, safeguarding strategic stability, offering insights into nuclear capacities, and potentially steering military competition toward less perilous avenues. However, shifts in the global security landscape have altered this calculus. The Russian Federation, much like the Soviet Union before it, has insisted that future agreements factor in the nuclear capabilities of Britain and France. On the other hand, the United States now confronts a security environment featuring two nuclear-armed adversaries—Russia and China—whose forces will potentially pose significant threats to the United States and its allies. This evolving security landscape may prompt the United States to reevaluate its assessments of its deterrence and arms control requirements. But how should the United States approach this problem?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, Korea, and United States of America
513. Redefining US strategy with Latin America and the Caribbean for a new era
- Author:
- Jason Marczak, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Matthew Kroenig
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The strategic interest of the United States and the countries of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) lies in strengthening their western hemisphere partnership. Shared borders, economic interests, and security alliances bind these nations, along with a common goal for prosperity. However, the perception of waning US interest and the rise of external influences necessitate the rejuvenation of and renewed focus on this partnership. In May 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security established the US-LAC Future Strategy Working Group to redefine the US-LAC partnership. This strategy promotes mutual and inclusive economic growth, renewed cooperation through enhanced commercial and investment ties, a renewed paradigm on bolstering security and reducing migration flows across the region, and a focus on preparedness in the face of natural disasters and the energy transition. Acting on this strategy could significantly benefit US economic and security interests. The United States should capitalize on immediate opportunities, like promoting nearshoring as a means to growth and prosperity across the Americas, while maintaining a medium-term strategy tailored to each country’s specific needs. This strategy paper highlights the importance of adaptability and practicality, particularly as the global economic landscape evolves and power shifts foresee new leading economies by mid-century. In addition, the strategy advocates for the significance of the US-LAC relationship amid the recalibration of US worldwide interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, Politics, Economy, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America
514. Sanctions have become a tool of first resort. But enforcement needs upgraded and updated resources.
- Author:
- David Mortlock and Alex Zerden
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Enforcement remains a critical but underresourced element of economic sanctions. The US Congress and the Department of the Treasury should consider updates to its resources, public guidance, and policies to ensure the efficacy of sanctions enforcement as the use of the sanctions policy tool continues to expand. Economic sanctions are often described as the foreign policy tool of first resort. The Department of the Treasury acknowledged this reality in its “2021 Sanctions Review.” Through its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Treasury Department administers thirty-eight different, albeit overlapping, economic sanctions programs. With only a few hundred employees, OFAC has a nearly unparalleled national security mandate with oversight of the US economy and many other facets of global economic activities. OFAC develops policies for the use of sanctions, designates sanctions targets like individuals, entities, and jurisdictions, engages with the private sector to promote compliance, and civilly enforces apparent violations by US persons and others. This latter enforcement role represents a critical but often overlooked capability. For instance, the same “2021 Sanctions Review” does not even mention the enforcement function in its assessment. (However, it did seek to ensure that sanctions are “enforceable” in the context of sanctions implementation.) Resource constraints, a lack of attention, and the prioritization of policy crises hamper this enforcement function. In 2023, OFAC only undertook seventeen public enforcement actions, including its largest settlement to date with Binance, a global cryptocurrency exchange. For perspective, the Department of Justice terminated 63,419 civil cases in fiscal year 2022, according to the most recent public data. As the wider interagency continues to rely on sanctions as a critical tool and the United States seeks to expand partner sanctions capacity, US policymakers must fully support the sanctions enforcement function. Strengthening the internal controls for OFAC enforcement improves the rule of law through improved due process and protects OFAC from legal challenges that could existentially undermine its national security mission. OFAC enforcement urgently requires increased budgetary resources and an upskilled workforce from Congress, stronger internal procedures to avoid litigation risks, improved public guidance, and revised enforcement guidelines to promote consistency and improve compliance by industry.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Sanctions, Transparency, and Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
515. Geoeconomic fragmentation and net-zero targets
- Author:
- Shirin Hakim and Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The second half of the twentieth century experienced significant economic integration. International trade, cross-border migration, capital flows, and technological diffusion increased per capita incomes across countries and reduced global poverty. However, events such as the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009, Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic—all against the backdrop of escalating great power rivalry and tensions between the United States and China—have demonstrated the rise of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, a growing numberof world leaders have addressed the impacts of GEF on global energy and agricultural markets. For one, higher and increasingly volatile food and energy prices have made it increasingly difficult for developing nations to prioritize environmental concerns and implement sustainable development initiatives.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Economy, Economic Growth, Inclusion, Energy, Geoeconomics, and Net Zero
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
516. Who’s a national security risk? The changing transatlantic geopolitics of data transfers
- Author:
- Kenneth Propp
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The geopolitics of transatlantic data transfers have been unvarying for the past decade. European governments criticize the US National Security Agency (NSA) for exploiting personal data moving from Europe to the United States for commercial reasons. The US government responds, through a series of arrangements with the European Union, by providing assurances that NSA collection is not disproportionate, and that Europeans have legal avenues if they believe their data has been illegally used. Although the arrangements have not proven legally stable, on the whole they have sufficed to keep data flowing via subsea cables under the Atlantic Ocean. Now the locus of national security concerns about international data transfers has shifted from Brussels to Washington. The Biden administration and the US Congress, in a series of bold measures, are moving aggressively to interrupt certain cross-border data flows, notably to China and Russia. The geopolitics of international data flows remain largely unchanged in Europe, however. European data protection authorities have been mostly noncommittal about the prospect of Russian state surveillance collecting Europeans’ personal data. Decisions on whether to transfer European data to Russia and China remain in the hands of individual companies. Will Washington’s new focus on data transfers to authoritarian states have an impact in Europe? Will Europe continue to pay more attention to the surveillance activities of its liberal democratic allies, especially the United States? Is there a prospect of Europe and the United States aligning on the national security risks of transfers to authoritarian countries?
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Economy, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
517. Intentionally vague: How Saudi Arabia and Egypt abuse legal systems to suppress online speech
- Author:
- Dina Sadek, Layla Mashkoor, Iain Robertson, and Andy Carvin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Egypt and Saudi Arabia are weaponizing vaguely written domestic media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws to target and suppress dissent, opposition, and vulnerable groups. Political leaders in Egypt and Saudi Arabia often claim that their countries’ judicial systems enjoy independence and a lack of interference, a narrative intended to distance the states from the real and overzealous targeting and prosecution of critics. Such claims can be debunked and dismissed, as the Egyptian and Saudi governments have had direct involvement in establishing and implementing laws that are utilized to target journalists and human rights defenders. Egypt and Saudi Arabia were selected as case studies for this report because of their status as among the most frequently documented offenders in the region when it comes to exploiting ambiguously written laws to target and prosecute journalists, critics, activists, human rights defenders, and even apolitical citizens. The two countries have consolidated power domestically, permitting them to utilize and bend their domestic legal systems to exert control over the online information space. Punishments for those targeted can involve draconian prison sentences, travel bans, and fines, which result in a chilling effect that consequently stifles online speech and activities, preventing citizens from discussing political, social, and economic issues. Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia enacted media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws with ambiguous language and unclear definitions of legal terms, allowing for flexible interpretations of phrases such as “false information,” “morality,” or “family values and principles.” The laws in both countries also loosely define critical terms like “terrorism,” thereby facilitating expansive interpretations of what constitutes a terrorist crime. Further, anti-terror laws now include articles that connect the “dissemination of false information” with terrorist acts. This vague and elastic legal language has enabled the Egyptian and Saudi regimes to prosecute peaceful citizens on arbitrary grounds, sometimes handing out long prison sentences or even death sentences, undermining respect for the rule of law in the two countries. This report explores the development of media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws in both countries, and demonstrates through case studies how Saudi Arabia and Egypt weaponize the laws to prosecute opposition figures and control narratives online. This report examines the relationship between criminal charges tied to one’s professional activities or online speech and how those charges can trigger online smear campaigns and harassment. In cases that involve women, gender-based violence is often used to harm a woman’s reputation. Though a direct correlation between judicial charges and online harassment cannot be ascertained, these case studies suggest that dissidents are likely to face online harm following legal persecution, even after they are released.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Internet, Freedom of Expression, Rule of Law, Disinformation, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
518. How Huawei Weathered the Storm: Resilience, Market Conditions or Failed Sanctions?
- Author:
- Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Robin Baker
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Huawei is exhibiting stoic resilience in the face of US sanctions, economic downturns, and the slow pace of 5G investments. There is a narrative that the company has been propped up by the Chinese government, but the key to Huawei’s resilience is multifaceted. Through pre-emptive stockpiling and ingenuity, the company has continued to fulfil its base station orders and defend its market shares abroad. Concurrently, Huawei has made an autonomous business decision to reinvest its earnings and intensify R&D to secure its supply chains against political risks and diversify into new business areas. Successful forays into semiconductors, cloud services and energy grids have also been facilitated by a capital structure that lends itself to long-term planning. Huawei’s survival is not necessarily a lesson in the futility of sanctions to stifle technological progress. However, it does show that muddled political objectives and inconsistent implementation will yield potentially contrary outcomes. At the same time, factors that contribute to Huawei’s resilience also highlight the infighting and vulnerabilities of listed firms like Mavenir, Ericsson and Nokia.
- Topic:
- Markets, Sanctions, Digital Economy, Resilience, and Huawei
- Political Geography:
- China, North America, and United States of America
519. Calling on the EU-US Trade and Technology Council: How to Deliver for the Planet and the Economy
- Author:
- Oscar Guinea, Vanika Sharma, Philipp Lamprecht, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief proposes the establishment of an agreement on conformity assessment between the EU and the US that covers machinery and electrical equipment. The initiative aims to increase the number of European and US conformity assessment bodies authorized to test and certify EU and US machinery and electrical equipment for exports into each other’s markets, without recognizing the equivalency or otherwise altering the product requirements in regulation, standards, or other normative documents on either side. While this study focuses on the economic effects of an agreement on conformity assessment that includes machinery and electrical equipment, the scope of such an agreement could potentially be extended to several additional product categories, particularly those that are subject to requirements for mandatory third-party conformity assessment in both the EU and the US. The increase in the number of conformity assessment bodies is expected to reduce the costs and the time required to demonstrate conformity. If this policy succeeds as expected in achieving a reduction in trade costs between 2 and 6 percent, US exports to the EU are projected to increase between US$ 11 billion and US$ 32.5 billion while EU exports to the US are estimated to grow by between US$ 13.8 billion and US$ 42.2 billion. In percentage terms, US firms are anticipated to experience a larger increase in exports of machinery and electrical equipment than their EU counterparts. The increase in trade flows as a result of this agreement is estimated to be larger than the rise in trade flows achieved in other Free Trade Agreements signed by the EU or the US. Moreover, as an increasing number of EU regulations begin to mandate third-party conformity assessment, US firms will increasingly benefit from this agreement when exporting to the EU. Given China’s status as the largest supplier of machinery and electrical equipment to both the EU and the US, the implementation of an EU-US agreement on conformity assessment would not only improve conditions for transatlantic trade but also lead to reduced trade dependence for the EU and the US on China. The reduction in trade costs between the EU and the US on machinery and electrical equipment due to the agreement could lower Chinese exports to the EU and the US by between US$ 6.5 billion and US$ 19.4 billion. Importantly, machinery and electrical equipment are crucial inputs for some of the key technologies in which the EU and the US Administrations have identified trade dependencies on China. However, in contrast with other policies aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese imports, an agreement on conformity assessment for machinery and electrical equipment will not require public subsidies or impose any financial burden on taxpayers. This agreement also has the potential to benefit the environment. Machinery and electrical equipment are essential inputs for green technologies. Therefore, a reduction in the cost and time of conformity assessment in these industries will accelerate the adoption of green technologies. An agreement on conformity assessment between the EU and the US covering green goods and clean technologies could increase transatlantic exports between US$ 3.1 billion and US$ 9.2 billion. While this increase in exports is significant, broadening the scope of the agreement to include the entirety of machinery and electrical equipment, rather than just a subset, is projected to lead to trade effects eight times larger. Moreover, as green technologies rapidly evolve, an agreement on conformity assessment has the potential to serve as a dynamic instrument that evolves to accommodate future regulatory and economic developments on climate and the environment on both sides of the Atlantic.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
520. Openness as Strength: The Win-Win in EU-US Digital Services Trade
- Author:
- Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The discourse surrounding the EU’s supposed over-reliance on digital services imports from non-EU countries, particularly the US, has been a recurrent topic among some political circles. However, this viewpoint tends to oversimplify and misrepresent the nuanced and complex reality of the EU’s status within the global Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector and digitally enabled trade. A thorough analysis of trade data and trends clearly illustrates that the EU’s engagement with foreign (non-EU) digital services, notably from the US, represents a strategic economic advantage, bolstering Europe’s competitiveness and fostering productivity growth. Below we underline the critical importance of openness to foreign innovation and technology diffusion for the EU’s economic future.
- Topic:
- European Union, Digital Economy, Strategic Competition, Imports, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
521. ICT Beyond Borders: The Integral Role of US Tech in Europe’s Digital Economy
- Author:
- Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Contrary to political assertions about the vulnerability of digital services provided by non-EU companies, the strong presence and sunk costs associated with US tech companies’ investments in data centres, skilled workforce development, and research facilities in Europe act as significant barriers to exit, highlighting the inherent symbiosis between US tech investments and Europe’s digital and non-digital sectors. These investments underscore a mutual inter-dependency that strengthens European economies, making the notion of “sudden cessation” of digital services by US companies implausible. Corporate data show a significant investment gap of approximately USD 1.36 trillion between US and EU ICT companies, attributing a competitive edge to US firms due to their heavy investment in ICT, cloud solutions, and R&D. Forecasted increases in ICT investments by US corporations outline a benchmark beyond reach for EU businesses. The notion of EU firms aligning with this growth path is rather fantastical, as it would call for immense government investment, ultimately draining financial resources from essential public services, such as healthcare, housing, and environmental policies. Substantial ICT investments across EU Member States together with a long-term commitment to the European market present an opportunity for the EU to leverage US continuous technological advancements, underscoring the potential for transatlantic collaboration to drive the EU’s digital transformation and innovation. EU-US partnerships not only fuel the EU’s digital transformation but also align with shared political values, reinforcing the significance of transatlantic collaboration in shaping a competitive and innovative digital future.
- Topic:
- Communications, European Union, Digital Economy, Investment, and Information Technology
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
522. Time to Rethink Export Controls for Strengthened US-EU Cooperation and Global Trade Rules
- Author:
- Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The escalation of broad export controls by the US, under the guise of national security and the aim to curb technological transfers to potential adversaries,[1] marks a new epoch of bureaucratic oversight. The US push for broad export controls also underscores a critical juncture in US-EU relations and global trade rules. Broad export restrictions not only challenge the very foundation of free trade but also contribute to the erosion of Western technology leadership.[2] Unilateral export controls may start strong but eventually lose effectiveness and become counterproductive,[3] pushing non-US companies, particularly in the semiconductor sector, to find alternatives to US components.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, European Union, Regulation, Exports, Trade, and Semiconductors
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
523. Keeping Up with the US: Why Europe’s Productivity Is Falling Behind
- Author:
- Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Oscar du Roy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The European Union stands at a crossroads. For decades, the EU’s productivity growth has consistently lagged the United States, leading to slower growth in living standards and decline in global economic power. While short-term factors like the strong US fiscal expansion have widened the gap in nominal GDP growth in recent years, the fact is that Europe has trailed the US economic development for several decades and the root of the problem lies in deeper structural issues within the European economy. Four major forces fuel this productivity divide. Firstly, the EU’s investment in research and development (R&D) pales in comparison to the U.S., leading to fewer patents and a slower pace of technology-fuelled innovation. Secondly, Europe trails America in the stock and growth of intangible capital investments, which are crucial for adopting and diffusing new technologies that drive productivity. Thirdly, the EU market exhibits slower business creation and destruction compared to the US. This rigidity hinders the flow of resources towards the most productive firms. Lastly, despite boasting higher levels of trade openness, the EU attracts less Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) than the US, curbing its access to cutting-edge global technologies and expertise. To close the gap, European policymakers should implement a comprehensive strategy for faster productivity growth. The first step is turning up the dial on R&D spending, targeting 4-5 percent of GDP by 2040. Next, Europe should prioritise investments in intangible assets and lay down the digital infrastructure that will underpin future growth. Revitalising the single market is also crucial: reducing internal and external market barriers for services, the primary vehicle for trading intangible assets. Moreover, the EU should foster a market environment that encourages entrepreneurship and facilitate the entry and exit of firms so resources cascade towards the most productive sectors. By harnessing the strengths of the single market and implementing these recommendations, European policymakers can propel the EU towards a more competitive and prosperous future.
- Topic:
- Markets, European Union, Productivity, and Economic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
524. Protecting Free and Fair Elections: The Vital Role of Public Administration
- Author:
- Steve Hagerty, Valerie Lemmie, and Nancy Tate
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
- Abstract:
- Free and fair elections are at the heart of American democracy, and running elections is a core responsibility of public administrators in the United States. The early decades of the 21st Century have been characterized by declining public trust in our nation’s elections, unnecessary barriers to voting, foreign interference, and widespread disinformation. These issues led the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) to include “Protect Electoral Integrity and Enhance Voter Participation” as one of our field’s Grand Challenges in November 2019. To assist the nation with this Grand Challenge, the Academy commissioned a team to conduct a review of electoral practices that can ensure free and fair elections through effective public governance and management. The Academy team developed a shared vision of election administration and identified leading practices for consideration by elected officials and election administrators. The team concluded that effective election administration consists of 3 major pillars: Voter experience, Election security, and Election workforce. The report is offered with the greatest respect for the work that election administrators do in support of a vital part of American democracy. It has been written for a broad audience, including citizens, elected officials, and election administrators.
- Topic:
- Security, Elections, Voting, and Public Administration
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
525. Illusion or Reality: A Recontextualized Perspective of ‘the American Dream’ in Imbolo Mbue’s Behold the Dreamers
- Author:
- Elizabeth Adesunmbo Omotayo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
- Abstract:
- ‘The American Dream’ motif is one that has been deployed in productions of American literary icons for centuries with different outcomes for the characters portrayed. Despite a plethora of fiction being devoted to the motif from African migrants’ perspective, not many studies have explored the actualization of the Dream by characters in such texts. In Behold the Dreamers (2016), Imbolo Mbue presents the lived experiences of new African diasporans. This study looks at the outcomes of the quest for ‘the Dream’ by Mbue’s characters, through a mimetic reading of her novel and based on Harold Bloom’s notion of ‘Party of Hope’ and ‘the American Nightmare’ as exemplified in the treatments of the Dream motif by several writers. Mbue, while presenting the paradoxical notions of illusion and reality of the Dream, also portrays struggles by both citizens and migrants, to achieve the tangible and intangible of its ideals. Findings reveal that essentialization and discrimination inhibit the attainment of the Dream by many African migrants; that the attainment of college education is a huge factor in the realization of the tangible of its ideals, while the attainment of the intangible seems illusory for many migrants. The conclusion is that several factors prevent the realization of the Dream by many contemporary African migrants.
- Topic:
- Migration, Immigration, Literary Analysis, American Dream, and Motif
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States of America
526. The Security Side of Gulf Visions. Adapting Defence to the Connectivity Age
- Author:
- Eleanora Ardemagni
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- The GCC states are adapting defence strategies to the challenges raised by their “Visions”, their post-hydrocarbon national plans. Far from being just economic programmes, the Visions are broad national transformation platforms displaying also a security dimension, and with many security implications. New cities and industrial poles, infrastructures, mega events and tourism raise unprecedented security risks, at which the GCC states are answering through a combination of economic-oriented foreign policy, multipolar international alliances, and ambitions towards “defense autonomisation”. What are the Visions’ security dimensions and implications, and how does the post-oil path affect and reshape foreign policies? This Report analyses how GCC states are adapting deterrence and defence tools to the connectivity age, navigating a troubled neighbourhood of both conventional and asymmetric threats. In a central but more vulnerable Gulf, how may the EU and NATO accommodate transformations in GCC states’ defense policies, postures, and means, to support their own security?
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
527. Moving Targets. Trends in Japan’s Foreign and Security Policies
- Author:
- Axel Berkofsky and Giulia Sciorati
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- In December 2022, Japan announced it would drastically increase its defence budget by 2027. The decision came as a wake-up call for the whole region: Japan was gearing up for a world of heightened tensions and rivalry in the Indo-Pacific Region. This Report analyses the present and future of Japan’s security and defence policies. Within the context of a rising China, Tokyo has broadened its defence ties with the US, India, Australia, and Taiwan. However, China remains its biggest trading partner, meaning Tokyo's policymakers are charged with the task and challenge of striking a balance between defence policies and business and trade relations with China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, ASEAN, Influence, Defense Spending, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Japan, India, Taiwan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
528. The Sky Is Not the Limit. Geopolitics and Economics of the New Space Race
- Author:
- Alessandro Gili
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Space is a contested domain for its very nature and today it is evidently becoming an increasingly important enabler of economic and military power. An increasing number of actors, infrastructures and technologies deployed in space also raises concerns for safety and security, especially in cyberspace. Many countries are striving to achieve space capabilities and autonomous access to space, and this is having a tremendous geopolitical impact, especially since space is emerging as an increasingly critical military and strategic domain. The development of the new space economy, which is increasingly involving the private sector and many industrial actors and services, will also be a game changer for the international economy. The space race likewise implies disruptive technologies that could contribute massively to the energy and digital transitions, accelerating solutions that could benefit humanity. A new international governance system for space is therefore needed urgently, considering that the current rules are no longer able to respond to a sector evolving at such a rapid pace. Which actors are leading the race? Which economic sectors could benefit the most and what could the new space economy mean for the world? How is space emerging as a military domain against a backdrop of increasing international tensions? What would a new system of global governance for space look like?
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, India, Italy, Global Focus, United States of America, and Space
529. Global supply chains: lessons from a decade of disruption
- Author:
- Luca Léry Moffat and Niclas Poitiers
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This paper explores both the character and impact of three recent shocks to global supply chains: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US-China trade war. These were large shocks which have had significant impacts on domestic and international supply chains, but these impacts have differed in their longevity, economic impact and policy responses. We show that supply chains were remarkably resilient against shocks of such magnitude. However, this resilience was also achieved thanks to the equally remarkable size and scope of policy responses and global supply chain reorganisation. We recommend that pre-emptive policies may be justified to shield households and industry from future shocks. Given the entangled nature of these shocks and that their effects continue to reverberate, we emphasise the need for extensive future research to understand the nature of these shocks and the effectiveness of policy responses.
- Topic:
- Global Markets, Trade Wars, Trade, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, Global Focus, and United States of America
530. A Return to US Casualty Aversion: The 9/11 Wars as Aberrations
- Author:
- John Mueller
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Impelled by an overwhelming desire to hunt down those who were responsible for the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the United States launched military invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, where it toppled regimes that had little or nothing to do with 9/11. There has been a tendency to see these exercises as misguided elements of a coherent plan to establish a liberal world order or to apply liberal hegemony. However, the warring of the post–9/11 period has been a glaring, extended, and highly consequential aberration. During the quarter century before that, the United States pursued a foreign policy that was far more casualty averse. Over the past decade, the country has moved back to—and appears poised to expand on—that tradition after its exhausting 9/11–induced military ventures that ran such high costs for so few benefits. Moreover, public opinion in the United States is not messianic or in constant search of hegemony or of monsters abroad to destroy. As part of its move back to a more limited military approach, the United States developed—or further developed—a strategy called “by, with, and through” that was particularly evident in its successful military campaign from 2014 to 2019 against the Islamic State. In this, the United States worked with local forces by providing advice, supplies, and intelligence, and by carrying out air strikes while the locals were expected to take almost all of the casualties. Although this approach is hardly new, it seems to have a future and is currently being applied in the war in Ukraine. It might also be applied to deal with a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, 9/11, War on Terror, Casualties, and Military
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
531. Slashing Tax Rates and Cutting Loopholes: Options for Tax Reform in the 119th Congress
- Author:
- Adam N. Michel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) marked a significant overhaul of the US tax system. It reduced taxes for individuals and businesses through the end of 2025 and boosted economic growth. However, beginning in 2026, Americans face an automatic tax increase of about 8 percent (more than $400 billion a year). In the context of the debate over the expiration of the TCJA, the next Congress has an unprecedented opportunity to cut tax rates to their lowest level in almost a century. The Cato Institute is putting forth this tax plan that pairs massively pro-growth tax cuts with the elimination of $1.4 trillion worth of annual tax loopholes, corporate welfare, and other special-interest tax subsidies. The plan would reduce the top income tax rate to 25 percent, the capital gains rate to 15 percent, and the corporate rate to 12 percent; enact full expensing for all investments; and repeal the estate tax, alternative minimum tax, and net investment income tax. The more aggressively Congress eliminates loopholes in the tax code and cuts spending, the deeper it can slash tax rates, eliminate the costliest taxes, and boost the economy.
- Topic:
- Reform, Economy, Economic Growth, and Tax Systems
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
532. Geopolitics in the Pacific Islands: Playing for advantage
- Author:
- Meg Keen and Alan Tidwell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Pacific Islands Countries are leveraging geopolitical rivalries to maximise their development options. But unmanaged competition for influence among key development partners can compromise good governance and privilege geopolitical posturing over local priorities. Australia, the United States, and other traditional donors can capitalise on areas of strength, such as social inclusion and regional and multilateral initiatives. Joint efforts along these lines and the pooling of resources would scale up impact and set higher accountability standards. Despite the risk that higher standards will open gaps for non-traditional donors with less burdensome criteria, there is much long-term value in traditional development partners collaborating in a “race to the top” in meeting the region’s needs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Regional Cooperation, Foreign Aid, Geopolitics, and Donors
- Political Geography:
- China, Australia, Australia/Pacific, United States of America, and Pacific Islands
533. NATO: Waging High-Tech Warfare
- Author:
- Yury Belobrov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- THE rapid technological progress observed in the last decade throughout the world, especially in China and Russia, threatens the established sources of military and industrial dominance of the collective West on the world stage. NATO views this as an alarming trend, and in an attempt to stop it, bloc members are making a determined effort to preserve their militarytechnological leadership and the international order structured around their policies. To this end, they are initiating a new arms race, partially through the active incorporation into the military sphere of the latest breakthrough technologies (Emerging and Disruptive Technologies – EDT), which, they believe, can reverse the emerging multipolarity of international relations and radically change the nature of future wars. Thus, the Allies are stepping up collective efforts to master innovative technologies and introduce them into the operational activities of NATO and all member nations to ensure their victory in future high-tech wars. They emphasize the urgency of adapting the armed forces of said countries to the realities of global technological advancement. As the communiqué adopted at the Alliance summit in Vilnius in 2023 directly stated: “We are accelerating our own efforts to ensure that the Alliance maintains its technological edge in emerging and disruptive technologies to retain our interoperability and military advantage including through dual-use solutions.”1 The US, as the main sponsor of NATO militarism, demands that its allies and partners closely and expeditiously collaborate on the creation of novel weaponry utilizing these emerging technologies and dramatically increase investment in various EDT projects and adapt their armed forces to them. Under the US’s diktat, Brussels and its American allies are creating new bureaucratic and financial entities. Private businesses and academic and research institutions are also being drawn into this sphere. To speed up this process, at the urging of Washington at the NATO summit in Brussels in 2021, a strategic initiative was launched to create the NATO Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), which will manage and coordinate all this activity within NATO. The main task of this organization is to form an innovative technological network that unites R&D centers, innovative start-ups, defense enterprises, and military agencies in order to simultaneously and rapidly master all types of dual-use EDT technologies and implement them in the civilian and military fields. In addition to these efforts, a decision was also made to form a €1 billion NATO Innovation Fund to finance venture capital companies developing dual EDT in areas of strategic importance to NATO. Essentially, these decisions by the alliance are aimed at mobilizing European resources, primarily to strengthen American military power. Of course, the main efforts to field the latest technologies are being undertaken by the largest member nations.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Cooperation, Weapons, Innovation, Emerging Technology, High-Tech Wars, and Military and Industrial Advantage
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and United States of America
534. The Global West and Global South: Development Paths
- Author:
- Maria Zakharova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- I would like to highlight the fact that Russia is notably absent, it would seem, from the “South-West” paradigm. This is because our country cannot be fully categorized as either Western or Southern. We exist everywhere, and yet we do not fit neatly into these constructs. Some perspectives associate Russia with the Global North, while others link us to the Global East. However, [Russia’s] 2023 Foreign Policy Concept, which Alexander Vladimirovich Yakovenko referenced, defines the Russian Federation as a “unique state-civilization and a vast Eurasian and Euro-Pacific power” – a scope broader than these conventional classifications. And in the context of our discussion today, it is imperative to acknowledge Russia’s influence on global affairs. The concept of the Global West is relatively straightforward; it encompasses the US, the EU countries, and to some extent the Asia- Pacific region, knit together by American-centric military, political, and economic alliances – what they call Euro-Atlantic values. This is a product of the historical West, which has been extending its influence over the non-Western world for around five centuries, starting from the Age of Discovery, in an attempt to dominate it by all possible means. However, it is worth noting that calling the current era neocolonialism may be overly generous. I would refrain from such a characterization, as it gives too much credit. While there are undoubtedly flaws in these cultures, they also have rich cultural histories. In recent decades, individuals have risen to power in the US and Britain whose thinking is characterized more by piracy and banditry than by a philosophical understanding of colonialism, which is by no means good. But this is worse than neocolonialism – it is outright robbery. To illustrate, I once used the analogy of the US acting like a cowboy in the Louvre who simply shoots everything in sight, unaware that the objects before him are valuable works of art.
- Topic:
- Security, Treaties and Agreements, Developing World, State, BRICS, Civilization, and Regional Organizations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States of America, Global South, and Global West
535. Civilizational War: The Will to Win
- Author:
- Andrey Ilnitsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- The US National Security Strategy defines the US as a global hegemon that sees no dividing lines between domestic and foreign policies and treats the world as its sphere of interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Globalization, National Security, War, Hegemony, Ideology, Civilization, Deep State, and Generative Models
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States of America
536. Triffin Reloaded: The Matrix of Contradictions around Global Quasi-State Money
- Author:
- Herman Mark Schwartz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- What explains the US dollar’s role in the global economy and the tensions affecting its likely persistence? Most analyses start from Triffin’s dilemma, which accurately captured specific but partial tensions of a global monetary system based on essentially fixed exchange rates, gold backing for its core currency, and relatively robust capital controls. Triffin’s approach, and those based on it, struggles to explain the tensions in a system with floating exchange rates and fiat money, because Triffin and successors assume a commodity theory of money, a loanable funds model for credit creation, and the “triple coincidence” of monetary, legal, and economic zones. Approaching the question from different premises – chartalist money, endogenous credit creation, and interlocked global balance sheets – enables us to see four factors behind the antinomies or dilemmas that structure the dynamics and durability of US dollar centrality. Those four factors are adequate credit creation and thus global aggregate demand growth, current account deficits for the core, domestic legitimacy in major economies, and the dollar’s status as global quasi-state money.
- Topic:
- Debt, Money, Currency, Power, Financial Systems, Geoeconomics, and Reserves
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
537. 'I Don't Know What Tomorrow will Bring': Understanding COVID-19’s Impact on the United States’ Stateless Population
- Author:
- Ashley Walters, Taryn Painter, and Heidi Meyers
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- In March 2020, COVID-19 was declared by the World Health Organisation (‘WHO’) as a global pandemic. Since the WHO’s declaration, it has become increasingly clear that the most vulnerable communities have experienced the brunt of the pandemic. Though race, ethnicity and economic status are considered in a majority of reports on the social, physical and financial impacts of COVID-19, there is little to no information on the impact of COVID-19 on stateless communities within the United States (‘US’). This research endeavours to add to the understanding of statelessness in the US by determining the impacts of COVID-19 on stateless people in the US through a survey scoping project. Through anonymous questionnaires completed by stateless individuals (n=19) in the United States, this study explores how stateless individuals have been impacted by the pandemic, including experiencing economic hardships, mental health challenges, physical health concerns and issues with documentation and legal status.
- Topic:
- Health, Economy, Mental Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Stateless Population, Vulnerability, Legal Status, and Documentation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
538. Tailored Deterrence Strategy on the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Gary Samore
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Over the last decade, the most significant change in the international strategic environment has been the reemergence of a great power rivalry between the U.S. and its European and Asian allies on one hand and Russia and China on the other. This trend began in the second term of President Obama, with the Russian invasion of Crimea in early 2014 and the Chinese construction of a network of military bases in the South China Sea beginning around 2013. Since then, the trend has sharpened. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has locked the U.S. and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies against Russia in a long-term struggle for the survival of Ukraine and future of European security. In Asia, tensions between Beijing and Washington have become worse, as both the Trump and Biden admіnistrations pursued economic measures against China, and as China appears to be building military options to unify Taiwan and the mainland by force. The reemergence of great power rivalry has important nuclear dimensions, increasing concerns about “strategic stability” – the nuclear balance among the great powers – and the risk of nuclear conflict. The Ukraine war has lowered the nuclear threshold. Russia has deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons to discourage NATO intervention or assistance to Ukraine. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) - the last remaining arms control treaty limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals - expires in February 2026, and Russia has refused U.S. offers to negotiate a new treaty as long as the U.S. is assisting Ukraine. In the meantime, Russia continues to develop an array of exotic nuclear delivery systеms intended to overcome U.S. missile defenses, including hypersonic reentry vehicles, nuclear-armed submarine drones, and nuclear anti-satellite weapons. China is pursuing an unprecedented nuclear build-up, including new strategic bombers, more advanced nuclear-armed submarines, and three new missile bases with more than 300 silos for solid fuel ICBMs with multiple reentry vehicles. According to U.S. Department of Defense estimates, China has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023 and will “probably have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030” (U.S. Department of Defense 2023a). Like Russia, China is also pursuing hypersonic reentry vehicles, anti-satellite weapons, and strategic cyber operations. Some analysts fear that China’s nuclear build-up will make it more confident that it can deter U.S. intervention in the face of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or increase the risk that a U.S.-China confrontation over Taiwan will escalate to nuclear use. To address the reemergence of great power threats, the U.S. has introduced the concepts of “tailored deterrence” and “integrated deterrence” into its nuclear doctrine. According to the Trump admіnistration Nuclear Posture Review, released in February 2018, The United States will apply a tailored and flexible approach to effectively deter across a spectrum of adversaries, threats, and contexts. Tailored deterrence strategies communicate to different potential adversaries that their aggression would carry unacceptable risks and intolerable costs according to their particular calculations of risk and cost (Office of the Secretary of Defense 2018). The tailored deterrence concept was also adopted by the Biden admіnistration in its October 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, saying, Central to U.S. deterrence strategy is the credibility of our nuclear forces to hold at risk what adversary leadership values most. Effectively deterring – and restoring deterrence if necessary – requires tailored strategies for potential adversaries that reflect our best understanding of their decision-making and perceptions (Office of the Secretary of Defense 2022). Building on the concept of tailored deterrence, the Biden admіnistration Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) also introduced the concept of “integrated deterrence,” which is based on the idea that traditional nuclear deterrence can be reinforced by non-nuclear capabilities. According to the NPR, The role of nuclear weapons is well established and embedded in strategic deterrence policy and plans. Non-nuclear capabilities may be able to complement nuclear forces in strategic deterrence plans and operations in ways that are suited to their attributes and consistent with policy on how they are to be employed. A pragmatic approach to integrated deterrence will seek to determine how the Joint Force can combine nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities in complementary ways that leverage the unique attributes of a multi-domain set of forces to enable a range of deterrence options backstopped by a credible nuclear deterrent (Ibid.).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
539. Reclaiming leadership: Australia and the global critical minerals race
- Author:
- Ian Satchwell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Climate policy, geopolitics and market forces are coalescing to deliver Australia a global leadership opportunity in critical minerals. To grasp that opportunity, Australia needs both to utilise its domestic mineral endowment and its mining knowledge and technology and to leverage the global footprint of Australian companies to help build a global supply chain network. How Australia responds will not only determine economic benefits to the nation but will also affect the world’s ability to achieve minerals security and the sustainability required for the global energy transition and inclusive economic growth. The global energy transition and other high-technology applications have increased demand for critical minerals, particularly in countries that have strong complex manufacturing industries. At the same time, the concentration of production of many critical minerals, the dominance of China in supply chains and its actions to restrict supply and influence markets, are disrupting both minerals production and availability. In response, developed nations have formulated critical minerals strategies and entered into bilateral and multilateral agreements, involving supplier nations and customer nations, to build alternative supply chains that are more diverse, secure and sustainable. Australia has committed in multiple agreements to work with like-minded nations to achieve this. This report is intended to provide the government with a road map to ‘step up’ to (re)activate Australia’s global mineral leadership.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Science and Technology, Leadership, Alliance, Emerging Technology, Minerals, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
540. A "new Washington consensus"
- Author:
- Johannes Späth
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- This oiip trend report delves into the shift in the U.S. and the EU towards protectionist foreign trade policies, diverging from traditional free trade principles. Despite initial expectations of a return to free trade under President Joe Biden, the administration has maintained and expanded protectionist measures, emphasizing a labor-centered approach with import tariffs. This departure is situated within a broader global context, reflecting a growing alignment on economic security policies and strategic autonomy between the transatlantic partners. The phenomenon, termed "polite protectionism," reveals bipartisan support, influencing upcoming elections. The text elaborates on the evolving dynamics of global trade, highlighting the multifaceted motivations and consequences of the contemporary protectionist trend.
- Topic:
- Free Trade, Trade, Protectionism, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
541. From “as long as it takes” to “as long as we can”: will the West abandon Ukraine?
- Author:
- Loïc Simonet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Ukraine starts 2024 on a military stalemate. Sustaining its war effort critically depends on increasing Ukraine allies’ – especially Europe – manufacturing capacity. Without continued Western aid, Ukraine cannot win this war. Both in the U.S. and in Europe, though, the momentum for supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” seems to be waning, especially since the eruption of violence in the Middle East partly took Ukraine off the media screens. Continuing to steadily contain Russia is the only option for now. Ukraine’s future, but also the West’s credibility, are at stake.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
542. Freerider or Strategic Balancer? Austria vis-à-vis NATO and Russia. US – perspective on Austrian neutrality politics
- Author:
- Jason C. Moyer and Patrick Kornegay
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 highlighted the fragility of peace and security in Europe. The resurgence of war in Europe prompted a reassessment of the security postures of traditionally neutral countries. Norms on military spending and assistance have been shattered, leading to Finland and Sweden reversing decades of military non-alignment to join NATO. Even Switzerland is eyeing a strategic overhaul and is considering joint exercises with NATO (Revill, 2022). Despite Sweden and Finland’s decision to join NATO Austria remains committed to neutrality. The public debate on Austria’s strategic culture has remained largely the same and policymakers in Vienna have not changed their stance on NATO. Russia’s war in Ukraine has underscored Austria’s need to reevaluate its policy of neutrality and strategic approach vis-a-vis NATO and Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Neutrality, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Austria, and United States of America
543. How the European Union should respond to Trump’s tariffs
- Author:
- Ignacio Garcia Bercero, Petros C. Mavroidis, and André Sapir
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- President-elect Trump has threatened to increase United States tariffs to 60 percent on imports from China and 10 percent to 20 percent on imports from other trading partners, including the European Union. In doing so the US would be ignoring its World Trade Organisation commitments and would also rollback the substantial liberalisation that has taken place during the past 80 years, with a potentially major negative impact on the world economy. In response to this threat, the EU should pursue a three-pronged strategy. First, the EU should engage bilaterally with the US to seek to avoid the imposition of tariffs. This could include an offer to consider measures on facilitation of bilateral trade and on economic security cooperation, while making clear that any trade measures adopted by the EU will be consistent with WTO rules. This offer should be backed up with a credible threat of retaliation that could be implemented if the US decides to impose tariffs on EU exports. Retaliation could take the form of a negative list – the EU would increase its tariffs on all US exports to the same level as the US tariffs, except for products imported from the US identified as crucial for the EU. Second, the EU should act to preserve a functioning rules-based multilateral trading system, including on dispute settlement, and should continue to pursue WTO reform. To this end, the EU should build a coalition of countries including key players from the Global North and the Global South ready to lead in this endeavour. Third, the EU should expand its network of bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements. The priority should be the ratification of the agreement with Mercosur, but the EU should also aim to improve trade relations with the United Kingdom and Switzerland and to further strengthen partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region, and with Africa.
- Topic:
- European Union, Tariffs, Trade Policy, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
544. Catch-up with the US or prosper below the tech frontier? An EU artificial intelligence strategy
- Author:
- Bertin Martens
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- European Union policymakers want to close the artificial intelligence innovation gap with the United States, as a way to accelerate lagging productivity growth. The EU focus is on expanding an existing supercomputer network with more AI hardware and computing infrastructure, with taxpayer support. However, this computing infrastructure is not adapted to AI modelling. The cost of catching up with leading big tech AI computing centres is already prohibitive for EU budgets, and is set to become even more so. The hardware focus overlooks missing EU markets for complementary services that are required to set up a successful AI business: large-scale business outlets for frontier generative AI models to generate sufficient revenues to cover huge fixed model training costs, hyperscale cloud-computing infrastructure and private equity financing for AI start-ups. In the absence of (or with insufficient) complementary services markets in the EU, start-ups are forced to collaborate with US big tech firms. Injecting taxpayer subsidies to make up for these missing markets may further distort EU markets. Regulatory compliance costs, including uncertainty about the implementation arrangements for the EU Artificial Intelligence Act, add to market problems. The EU should address a wider range of market failures in its policy initiatives. It should strive to increase productivity growth below the AI technology frontier, by facilitating investment and applications of AI-driven services produced by derived and specialised generative AI models, or AI-applications that build on top of existing generative AI models. Building these below-frontier AI applications requires far less computing capacity and less heavy investment costs. Promoting the uptake of AI application services across a wide range of industries can substantially stimulate productivity growth. That requires a razor-sharp focus on pro-innovation guidelines, standards and implementation provisions for the EU AI Act, shortening the Act’s regulatory uncertainty horizon as much as possible, and facilitating collaborations between EU AI startups and big tech companies. Widening and deepening the EU private equity and venture capital market would also be very helpful.
- Topic:
- Markets, Science and Technology, European Union, Investment, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
545. Fentanyl Precursors from China and the American Opioid Epidemic
- Author:
- Martin Purbrick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The fentanyl epidemic was born in America, rose from the supply of precursor chemicals made in China and is now even more destructive as Mexican drug cartels profit from huge demand. The involvement of suppliers of fentanyl precursors from China is a controversial issue that negatively impacts U.S.-China relations. The U.S. government has claimed that not enough is being done to curtail the production and trafficking of fentanyl precursors from China. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) government has claimed that it has taken strong action while also emphasizing China’s antipathy to illegal drugs by falling back on the historical legacy of the harm wrought by Western merchants’ trading of opium with China in the 19th century.
- Topic:
- Narcotics Trafficking, Organized Crime, Cartels, Opioid Crisis, and Fentanyl
- Political Geography:
- China, Mexico, and United States of America
546. Ten Years of Democratizing Data: Privileging Facts, Refuting Misconceptions and Examining Missed Opportunities
- Author:
- Donald Kerwin and Robert Warren
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- The Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) initiated its “Democratizing Data” project in 2013 to make detailed demographic information widely available on the US undocumented, eligible to naturalize, and other non-citizen populations. The paper begins by outlining top-line findings and themes from the more than 30 CMS studies under this project. It then examines and refutes four persistent misconceptions that have inhibited public understanding and needed policy change: (1) migrants never leave the United States; (2) most undocumented migrants arrive by illegally crossing the US-Mexico border; (3) each Border Patrol apprehension translates into a new undocumented resident; and (4) immigrants are less skilled than US-born workers. The paper then offers new analyses in support of select policy recommendations drawn from a decade of democratizing data. It concludes with a short reflection and a case study on the failure of data, evidence-based policy ideas, and national ideals to translate into necessary reform.
- Topic:
- Border Control, Democracy, Data, and Migrants
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
547. The Polarized American Electorate: The Rise of Partisan-Ideological Consistency and Its Consequences
- Author:
- Alan I. Abramowitz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- Alan I. Abramowitz presents evidence from American National Election Studies surveys showing that party identification, ideological identification and issue positions have become much more closely connected over the past half century. He argues that as a result, the ideological divide between Democratic and Republican identifiers has widened considerably. The rise of partisan-ideological consistency has contributed to growing affective polarization as well as increasing party loyalty and straight ticket voting.
- Topic:
- Elections, Ideology, Political Science, Survey, Polarization, Republican Party, and Democratic Party
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
548. Are Immigrants a Threat? Most Americans Don’t Think So, but Those Receptive to the “Threat” Narrative Are Predictably More Anti-immigrant
- Author:
- PRRI Staff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Joe Biden campaigned on a commitment to reverse many of the Trump administration’s strictest anti-immigration policies. Though many of these policies have either been reversed or halted — including the travel ban for people from various countries, the ban on temporary work visas, and the expansion of the public charge rule, among others —some remain in place.[1] One such policy is a public health rule known as Title 42, which allows for the immediate expulsion of migrants at the border in order to control the spread of COVID-19. The rule was set to be lifted in late December, but its suspension was delayed by the Supreme Court owing to public backlash and fears that illegal border crossings would increase significantly.[2] Meanwhile, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis have proposed legislation that would both extend Title 42 and provide a pathway to citizenship for two million people who were illegally brought to the United States as children and are now classified as “Dreamers.” The proposal also includes new resources to speed the processing of asylum seekers.[3] As politicians struggle with how to address immigration issues, Americans’ views on immigration have become increasingly polarized, with Republicans becoming significantly more anti-immigrant in their attitudes over the past few years. Republicans have continually attacked the Biden administration’s handling of immigration, claiming that his policies will increase the flow of immigrants over the southern border and calling for U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas to resign. These criticisms are expected to increase now that Republicans have regained control of the House of Representatives.[4] Though the Trump-era narrative still resonates among certain portions of the American public, this report reveals that majorities of Americans do not view immigrants as a threat. But people who are more likely to think of immigrants as a threat — including those who most trust conservative media sources and Fox News — they are considerably more anti-immigrant and less supportive of open immigration policies.
- Topic:
- Politics, Immigration, Border Control, and Nativism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
549. The Monroe Doctrine as the Will and Idea of the United States of America
- Author:
- Boris Martynov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- On February 24, 2022, international relations entered a whole new stage of development affecting, albeit to varying degrees, practically all states, with no end in sight. On September 7, 2022, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the world was experiencing “fundamental transformations.” Such transformations generally require several years to be completed. By the middle of the third decade of the 21st century, two highly important signs of a new situation have become absolutely clear: a crisis of the old institutions of global governance and the new rising and developing centers of power. At the same time, the opinion that the new is just the “well-forgotten old” is confirmed. This is especially true of the US and its policies.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, Governance, Law, Psychology, Identity, and Monroe Doctrine
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Global Focus, and United States of America
550. Turkey vis-à-vis Russia’s War against Ukraine
- Author:
- Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Characterising Turkey’s policy towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is not an easy task. Elements of both support for Ukraine and neutrality have emerged in the past year. An analysis of the fundamentals of Turkey–US relations and Russia–Turkey relations is thus helpful.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America
551. Reproductive Injustice? A County-Level Analysis of the Impact of Abortion Restrictions on Abortion Rates
- Author:
- Raymond Caraher
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- Since Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992, state governments in the United States have been permitted to restrict abortion access up to the point where such restrictions do not place an ‘’undue burden” on those seeking abortion care. Since this ruling, abortion restrictions of various types and intensities have proliferated across the South and Midwest, especially since the 2010s. This paper uses a novel dataset of county-level abortion rates covering 20 years, as well as a database covering four types of restrictions which represent both “demand-side” restrictions (i.e., those which target abortion seekers) and “supply-side” restrictions (i.e., those which target abortion providers), to analyze the effect of abortion restrictions on abortion rates. Using a difference-in-differences design, the analysis finds that while both classes of abortion restrictions reduce the abortion rate, restrictions that target pregnant people seeking an abortion have a substantially larger effect on abortion rates. Leveraging the spatial heterogeneity of the county-level dataset, the analysis further finds that abortion restrictions have a substantially larger negative effect on abortion rates for counties which have a larger share of Black or Hispanic residents. When comparing high and low income counties, the results suggest that poorer counties experience a higher negative effect of abortion restrictions. Further, the study finds significant variation in the effect of different abortion restrictions by state. While demand-side laws consistently cause abortion rates to decrease, the results for supplyside laws are more heterogenous. Overall, the results suggest that repealing Roe v. Wade will have a significant and unequal effect on abortion rates, with marginalized communities experiencing a greater impact.
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, Inequality, Legislation, Reproductive Rights, and Abortion
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
552. Federal Reserve Anti-Inflation Policy: Wealth Protection for the 1%?
- Author:
- Aaron Medlin and Gerald Epstein
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from Congress that directs it to conduct monetary policy as such to achieve “maximum employment” and “stable prices.” Yet the U.S. central bank typically chooses to address inflation as a top priority and focuses on employment only secondarily, if at all. Why? In this paper we argue that an important reason is that the Federal Reserve conducts policy so as protect the real wealth of the top 1% of the wealth distribution. We focus on the Fed’s fight against inflation in 2021-2022, when it rapidly raised its policy interest rates by almost 4 percentage points in the face of more than 6 percent inflation. Using a novel econometric analysis, we provide evidence that shows that this policy serves as a real net wealth protection policy for the 1% by restoring some of the lost wealth that they would otherwise lose due to unexpected inflation. The results of this policy for the top 10% of the wealth distribution are econometrically ambiguous. But to the extent that the Fed’s high interest rates generate higher unemployment or even a recession, this wealth protection for the 1% could have serious income costs for workers who find themselves or another member of their household out of a job.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Monetary Policy, Inflation, Elites, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
553. Inflation and Paid Care Services in the U.S.
- Author:
- Nancy Folbre
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- Nancy Folbre offers a number of reasons why increases in average wages among the lowest deciles of the population are not likely to significantly buffer the effects of rapid inflation on families with incomes below the poverty line. It also raises a number of specific questions for future research.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Economic Inequality, Inflation, and Wages
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
554. Women, Peace and Security and the 2022 National Security Strategy
- Author:
- Hans Hogrefe and Cassandra Zavislak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Our Secure Future
- Abstract:
- This brief examines the inclusion of the Women, Peace and Security agenda in the Biden Administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy, and compares it to the ways in which the Trump Administration’s 2017 National Security Strategy addresses the full participation of women in our national security interests.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Women, Inequality, Peace, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North America, and United States of America
555. BlackRock ve ABD Hegemonyası
- Author:
- Muhammet Sait Pınarbaşi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- 1980’lerde başlayan uluslararası ekonomi politik gelişmeler kurumsal yönetişim rejimini de etkileyerek, varlık yöneticisi kapitalizmi olarak adlandırılan bir sürece girilmesine ve bu sürecin sonunda yeni ekonomi politik aktörler olan dev varlık yöneticisi şirketlerinin önemli ölçüde büyümesine sebep olmuştur. Ekonomik sistemde hâkimiyetin, rızaya dayalı tahakküm biçimi olarak hegemonyanın ön koşullarından birisi olarak sayılması, bu şirketlerin en büyüğü olan BlackRock’ın ABD hegemonyasındaki konumunun değerlendirilmesinin önünü açmıştır. Konuyla ilgili eserlerin incelendiği literatür taramasının yanında yorumsamacı yaklaşımdan yararlanılarak yapılan çalışmada BlackRock’ı ABD hegemonyası perspektifinden araştırmak hedeflenmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda yapılan araştırmanın sonucunda, yönetimi altındaki varlıkların 10 trilyon dolara ulaştığı BlackRock’ın; ABD ile yakın ilişkisi, ekonomik kriz dönemlerindeki kurtarıcı rolü, dünyanın en büyük finans kuruluşlarına (merkez bankaları dahil) danışmanlık yapması, hissedar olduğu binlerce şirketin genel kurulunda oylama hakkı bulunması ve 2012’den itibaren her yıl yayınlanan mektuplar aracılığıyla küresel ekonomik sisteme önemli ölçüde etki etme kabiliyeti bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde ABD hegemonyası lehine konumlandığı gözükmektedir.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Hegemony, Capitalism, and BlackRock
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
556. Moonshot vs. Long March: Contrasting the United States’s and China’s Space Programs
- Author:
- Katherine Kurata and David Lin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- On the morning of November 2, 2023, the Gobi Desert’s silence was shattered: From a remote launchpad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center (中国酒泉卫 星发射中心), the Hyperbola-2 (双曲线二号), a slender rocket bearing the iSpace emblem (星际荣耀), surged upwards, before gracefully alighting back on Earth (iSpace WeChat, November 2; CNSA, November 2). This suborbital hop marked a major achievement for iSpace as the company progresses towards developing reusable medium-lift rockets. The test demonstrated key technologies like the methalox engine and landing capabilities that will enable iSpace’s larger reusable rocket plans with Hyperbola-3. In China’s rapidly growing commercial space industry, iSpace, alongside other ambitious startups like Galactic Energy (星河动力), CAS Space (中科宇航探索技术), and Deep Blue Aerospace (深蓝航天), are striving to replicate the success of American pioneers such as SpaceX (Galactic Energy WeChat, July 24; CAS Space WeChat, April 4; Deep Blue Aerospace WeChat, May 7, 2022). Their goal: to revolutionize orbital access with reusable rocket technology. The success on November 2 was more than an engineering accomplishment; it was a testament to China’s emerging “innovation power”—its capacity to create, adopt, and seamlessly integrate new technologies (Foreign Affairs, February 28; US House of Representatives, May 17). This successful launch marks not just a step forward in technological capability but also a strategic shift in the global space race. With a unique mix of state guidance and entrepreneurial zeal, China is charting an alternate path in space exploration, contrasting sharply with the United States’s focus on private sector innovation. As the United States and China advance their respective space programs, their differing approaches are reshaping the landscape of space leadership. While America champions private sector innovation, China exerts centralized state control. Yet amidst an increasingly congested orbital environment, it is clear that the future trajectory of space exploration hinges not solely on innovation itself, but specifically on the capacity for nations to effectively combine government direction with commercial dynamism. The country that strikes this balance will harness the strengths of both its public and private sectors to accelerate advancement, and will be positioned to spearhead humanity’s future in the final frontier.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Space, Innovation, and Public-Private Partnership
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
557. U.S.-China Data War Intensifies as Bilateral Relations Nosedive
- Author:
- Willy Wo-Lap Lam
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- U.S.-China relations appear headed for further deterioration despite the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) efforts to lure back American multinationals and Beijing’s relatively limited support for Russia in its war with Ukraine. Washington has characterized the “existential competition” with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as an entrenched struggle on all fronts, but the data and information sectors have recently become areas of particularly intense contention. The Xi Jinping leadership has sternly retaliated against purported efforts by the U.S. and its allies to choke off the PRC’s high-tech development pathways. Recent moves targeting American and other foreign firms are also closely linked to General Secretary Xi Jinping’s obsession with cybersecurity and control of data. Last weekend, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), the administrative arm of the policy-setting Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission (CCAC) that Xi chairs, announced an investigation into the operations of leading American memory-chip maker Micron Technology. The CAC cited the need to safeguard the supply chains of Chinese IT and data companies. Regardless, Micron, whose China operations account for 11 percent of worldwide sales, has insisted that it “stands by the security of our products” (Straits Times, April 1; South China Morning Post [SCMP], March 31).
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Cybersecurity, Information Technology, and Data Governance
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
558. Strategic Competition between USA and China in Asia Pacific Region
- Author:
- Muhammad Soban Arif, Syeda Lubna Shah, and Muhammad Talha
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The USA is increasingly engaged in the Asia Pacific region to secure its interest in maintaining its status quo over the globe. As China becomes an economic giant within two decades and poses a threat to the hegemony of the USA, the USA is engaging with its partners and allies in the region. For this purpose, the USA initiated multiple alliances like AUKUS & QUAD shifted its perspective towards Asia, and Introduced an Asia-Pacific policy for containing China. In contrast to the USA, China is sucking the countries in its economic system to build infrastructure, ports, roads, and railways and by providing loans to developing countries by introducing projects like BRI, OBOR & BRICS. China is using the strategy of Sun Tzu by maneuvering opponents into such a place from which escape is impossible. Both countries are in Thucydides' trap from which escape is impossible. The USA & and China confronted each other through a Trade War. Now achieving geoeconomics interest is important in the contemporary century. The perspective of war on the battlefield shifted toward confronting geo-economic interests due to nuclear doctrine. According to realists, conflict is inevitable in human interactions.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Strategic Competition, Regional Politics, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
559. Shifting Dynamics in the Middle East: Implications for Pakistan
- Author:
- Zosha Noor, Muhammad Javed, and Shakeel Ahmed
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- China's resurgence as a global actor has significantly altered international relations, particularly in the Middle East, particularly with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan's unique geographical location and complex international interactions present an intriguing situation due to these changes. Pakistan's close relations with China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, along with its shared border and cultural ties with Iran, influence its security concerns, domestic politics, economy imperative, and foreign policy. China's growing relationship with Saudi Arabia is driven by its oil needs, global influence, and regional stability. Iran offers China a valuable counterbalance and potential ally in the Middle East due to its geostrategic position and abundant natural resources. The United States' long-standing hegemony in the Middle East has been put to the challenge by China's growing influence and strategic alliances in the region. This qualitative study investigates the issues relating to Middle East with an objective to evaluate the role of great powers‘ politics in the region. The Middle East's shifting geopolitical environment could be advantageous for projects like the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Chabahar Port Development, and Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Political stability, Rapprochement, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
560. The American Invasion and Authoritarianism
- Author:
- Joseph Sassoon
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- Professor Joseph Sassoon discusses the durability of authoritarianism and the decline of American predominance in the years following the Iraq War. The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 was not an isolated episode—as interventions by superpowers, have been a recurring feature in the contemporary history of the Middle East and its authoritarian trajectories. Even so, the American invasion stands out in terms of its scale and the reach of its aftermath. The events of 2003 have influenced Arab regimes and societies far more than other wars or softer forms of global involvement—and in ways that remain more distinct today. The fallout and lingering effects of the American invasion included regional polarizations, securitization, sectarian/ethnic manipulation, transferred counterinsurgency practices, and the expansion of carceral systems. Although Middle Eastern regimes varied in their capacity to translate their learning in the face of social and geopolitical pressures, these fallouts found unique expression in the “rogue states” that were targets of American democratization campaigns and played a key role in autocratic revival and well-being post-2011.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Iraq War, and Invasion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
561. No Good Way to Occupy a Country: Conceptions of Culture in the Iraq War
- Author:
- Rochelle Davis
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- CCAS Professor Rochelle Davis’ latest book project examines the role that the U.S. military’s conception of culture played in the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Her work—which makes use of interviews with U.S. servicemembers and Iraqis, as well as military documents, cultural training materials, journalist reports, and soldier memoirs—analyzes the narratives that are told about Iraqis, Afghans, Arabs, and Muslims and explicates the paradoxical military objectives of cultural sensitivity and occupation. Professor Davis, who has published two prior books on Palestine, is currently finalizing the manuscript for No Good Way to Occupy a Country. She shares a bit about her project below.
- Topic:
- Occupation, Interview, and Iraq War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, Palestine, and United States of America
562. Tackling Russian Gray Zone Approaches in the Post-Cold War Era
- Author:
- Ryan Burkholder
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- To undermine U.S. military strength, state actors are increasingly operating in the ambiguous environment between peace and war known as the “gray zone.” These actions test U.S. response by exploiting the West’s rigid notion of conflict. Soviet actions toward the United States and other nations during the Cold War shared many similarities with contemporary Russian strategy. There is no current uniform definition of the gray zone, and the United States has not developed doctrine to address this challenge. Russia has adapted Soviet Cold War techniques for the digital and globalized age and effectively integrates instruments of power against the United States by targeting seams within culture, maintaining ambiguity, and controlling narratives. Countering these tactics requires that the United States modify its mindset toward conflict and improve integration of its own instruments of power.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Politics, Conflict, Gray Zone, and Hybrid Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
563. The Cold War Computer Arms Race
- Author:
- Bryan Leese
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The Cold War computer arms race illustrates the military’s role in strategic competition. The Soviets bought and stole, versus creating computer technology themselves. A U.S.-led coalition integrated economic, diplomatic, and information mechanisms, embargoing computer technology to disadvantage the Soviets. President Ronald W. Reagan’s offset strategy integrated military power, openly demonstrating computer-infused weapons lethality that jeopardized Soviet quantitative military advantage. President Reagan’s use of the computer arms race shows a way to conduct and integrate a strategic competition campaign of deterrence that includes coercive diplomacy with diplomatic efforts that can deter China and Russia while encouraging them to reverse harmful foreign and domestic policies.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Science and Technology, Deterrence, Espionage, Embargo, Coercion, Competition, and Computers
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North America, and United States of America
564. Revisiting the Global Posture Review: A New U.S. Approach to European Defense and NATO in a Post-Ukraine War World
- Author:
- Maxwell Stewart
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- This article revisits the 2021 Global Posture Review’s determination for a status quo European force posture in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Considering the poor Russian performance and attrition in the war, and the likely frozen conflict that will emerge, the article lays out the process by which the United States can draw down its permanent presence in Europe to refocus on the Pacific and restructure its relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), all while maintaining alliance unity. The article has two main recommendations. The first is a time line for a reduced U.S. force posture in Europe from the present to 2035 while placing more emphasis on a European role in NATO leadership. The second is focused on how to maintain strategic flexibility while reassuring NATO allies of U.S. commitment. It then identifies and provides mitigations for the anticipated risks associated with the recommendations.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Russia-Ukraine War, and Rebalancing
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America
565. Including Africa Threat Analysis in Force Design 2030
- Author:
- Glen Segell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- This article examines the threat analysis across Africa that should be included in Force Design 2030 for the United States Marine Corps to be deployed landward to Africa or seaward of the continent. It is a strategic guidance document examined from a threat analysis of China, Russia, Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations. Africa is not mentioned, and this is a notable omission given that high level interventions in the past to Africa have not been overtly successful. Given geostrategic significances and hot spots it is inevitable that the Marines will be deployed there again. This article examines lessons learned from failures in Somalia, Libya, and Lebanon and successes in Syria and Iraq as well as the experiences of others—France in Mali and Burkina Faso and United States Africa Command. Great power competition, violent extremist organizations, and the gray zone phenomena across Africa are examined as are security, intelligence, counterintelligence, and hybrid warfare.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Counterinsurgency, Violent Extremism, Gray Zone, Strategic Competition, and US Marine Corps
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States of America
566. The Nationalization of Cybersecurity: The Potential Effects of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission Report on the Nation’s Critical Infrastructure
- Author:
- H. Chris Tecklenburg and José de Arimatéia da Cruz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The United States is susceptible to cyberattacks. The Cyberspace Solarium Commission Report provides several recommendations to prevent and respond to such attacks. However, many of these recommendations attempt to nationalize cybersecurity. This article presents a historical overview involving the Department of Homeland Security, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, and the Commerce Clause, which outlines nationalization and its effects. It will note a similar trend for cybersecurity. Finally, the positive and negative consequences of nationalization are presented.
- Topic:
- Cybersecurity, Homeland Security, Cyberspace, Commerce, Nationalization, and Critical Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
567. Sovereignty, Cyberspace, and the Emergence of Internet Bubbles
- Author:
- Eldar Haber and Lev Topor
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The cyber domain emerged as a perfect platform for international struggle over power and influence. International powers are actively engaged in cyber proxy warfare due to the relatively low risk of escalation, various enforcement challenges, and the vagueness of international law within this realm. These indirect conflicts might lead some global powers to close or restrict their virtual borders to avoid or reduce the plausibility of cyber proxy warfare or unwanted foreign influence in general. The formation of such restricted networks, articulated in this article as “internet bubbles,” is already shaping within the realm of actors like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The authors argue that liberal democracies like the United States might be at a severe disadvantage to fight against cyber proxy warfare due to legal and constitutional barriers. But at the same time, the emergence of platform governance and self-regulation might be proven as a new force within these proxy wars and reshape its boundaries.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Cybersecurity, Internet, Proxy War, and Cyberspace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North America, and United States of America
568. The Berlin Pulse 2023/24 (full issue)
- Author:
- Julia Ganter, Steffen Müller, Sarah Pagung, Norbert Röttgen, and Lila Roldán Vázquez
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Körber-Stiftung
- Abstract:
- What do Germans und US citizens think about the most pressing foreign policy issues? Here are the highlights of this year’s public opinion survey, addressing Germany’s international role, biggest challenges and most important partners. A majority (57 per cent) of Germans believe that Germany’s international influence has declined over the past two years, despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s proclaimed Zeitenwende. As a result, only 38 per cent of respondents would like to see Germany become more engaged in international crises. This is the lowest figure since the start of the survey in 2016. 76 per cent believe that this involvement should preferably be of a diplomatic nature, compared to 65 per cent last year. 71 per cent of respondents are against Germany taking a leading military role in Europe.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Military Spending, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America
569. What Does the US-China Tech Cold War Mean for the Middle East?
- Author:
- Alistair Taylor and Mohammed Soliman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- On this week's episode Alistair Taylor, MEI's editor-in-chief, is joined by Mohammed Soliman, director of MEI's Strategic Technologies and Cyber Security Program, to discuss the US-China tech Cold War and what it means for the Middle East. At the nexus of great power competition and rapid technological advances in areas like semiconductors and AI, the rivalry between Washington and Beijing is fuelling a longer-term process of economic and technological decoupling. Navigating this growing divide will be a key challenge for regional actors across MENA.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Economy, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and United States of America
570. Roundtable with Special Representative Dilawar Syed (U.S. Business in Iraq)
- Author:
- Dilawar Syed and Randa Slim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East Institute (MEI) was pleased to host a roundtable with the U.S. State Department's Special Representative for Commercial and Business Affairs, Dilawar Syed, moderated by Paul Salem, President & CEO with Randa Slim, Senior Fellow and Director, Conflict Resolution & Track II Dialogues Program. SR Syed had recently returned from a delegation trip to Baghdad with the U.S.-Iraq Business Council (USIBC). In this roundtable, he briefed a private sector and policy audience about his findings. During his visit, he held high level bilateral meetings with senior Iraqi officials, including Prime Minister Al-Sudani. SR Syed also met with the Speaker of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, many of the Council of Representatives Iraq (COR) committees, and Iraqi entrepreneurs. SR Syed also spoke to opportunities and challenges for U.S. businesses in Iraq at large, responding to questions such as: Which economic sectors show the most promise for US-Iraqi economic cooperation in the short-, medium-, and long-term? What are the biggest challenges facing Iraq's economy and potential business partnerships with US companies? What were some of the private sector delegates impressions of Iraq today, and the economic opportunities available to US businesses? From this administration's perspective, how important (or high-priority) is our relationship with Iraq and what is the strategic rationale for improved and integrated economic cooperation? Looking past the delegation, how does the State Department intend to continue promoting active private sector partnerships? How do your Iraqi counterparts understand their relationship with the US, what are their hopes and fears as we look towards the future of this relationship, both economic and otherwise?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Business, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America
571. Little Amal Walks Across America
- Author:
- Kate Seelye and Vanessa Zuabi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- MEI’s Senior Vice President Kate Seelye speaks with award-winning theater director and writer Amir Nizar Zuabi - Artistic Director of the 'Amal Walks Across America' tour. They discuss the upcoming U.S. tour of Little Amal, an internationally celebrated 12-foot-tall puppet of a 10-year-old Syrian refugee girl traveling across the world carrying a message of hope and compassion for displaced people everywhere.
- Topic:
- Arts, Refugees, Displacement, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Syria, North America, and United States of America
572. The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea
- Author:
- Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- In The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea, author Shadi Hamid explores what he describes as the ‘democratic dilemma,’ the U.S. desire for democracy in theory but not in practice. Hamid cites the rise of Islamist parties during a wave of democratic elections across the Middle East, which he argues produced outcomes the U.S. was not intending, such as the empowerment of Hamas in Gaza following the 2006 Palestinian elections. Reviewing the lessons learned from the past two decades of U.S. policy in the Middle East, Hamid proposes ‘democratic minimalism’ as a new approach to democracy promotion. Instead of viewing democracy as a tool to usher in liberalism, economic development, and cultural progress, Hamid argues that democracy as an end in of itself should be prioritized over other liberal values. Please join us at the Middle East Institute for an in-person discussion with author Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers, Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on the strategy of U.S. democracy promotion abroad, the consequences of the democratic push in the early twenty-first century and the future shape of governance systems globally. Gönül Tol, MEI Senior Fellow and Director of the Turkey Program, will moderate the discussion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Islamism, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
573. The EU–US Data Protection Framework: Balancing Economic, Security and Privacy Considerations
- Author:
- Federica Marconi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The rapid evolution of digital technology has ushered in a data-centric economy, where data accessibility drives marketplace efficiency and economic growth across various industries. However, this shift, while offering numerous benefits, introduces significant privacy and data security challenges, particularly in the context of transatlantic data transfers. Considering the vast economic ties between the EU and the US, the transatlantic data flow vividly illustrates the complexities involved in governing and transferring data. It grapples with the ongoing challenge of striking a satisfactory balance between economic advantages stemming from data utilisation and various concerns pertaining to national security, digital sovereignty and individual rights. In recent years, the European Commission approved two different frameworks on transatlantic data flow – Safe Harbour in 2000[1] and Privacy Shield in 2016[2] – asserting that the US provided a level of data protection for data transfers essentially equivalent to that guaranteed in the EU. However, despite initial optimism, both adequacy decisions faced a significant setback when the Court of Justice of the European Union invalidated them in what is commonly referred to as the “Schrems saga”,[3] named after the Austrian activist who first challenged both frameworks before the European Court. The core arguments centred on the absence of adequate safeguards for personal data within US domestic law and the extent of state surveillance over such data when it was transferred, as initially disclosed by Edward Snowden in 2013.[4] This legal development led to a period of significant uncertainty and further heightened the ongoing debate concerning the regulation of transatlantic data transfer. To address the consequences of this legal turmoil, both EU and the US committed to establishing “a renewed and sound framework for transatlantic data flows”,[5] seeking a long-term solution to address the complexities of data privacy and security, eventually leading to the recently adopted EU–US Data Privacy Framework (“DPF”).
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Political Economy, European Union, Privacy, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
574. Climate Action, Geopolitical Risks and Strategic Policy: The Western Race to Secure Critical Raw Materials
- Author:
- Salvatore Finizio
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Climate action, economic competition and geopolitical shifts are more intertwined than ever. In the wake of the skyrocketing inflation and deteriorating China relations, United States President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law on 16 August 2022. Conceived as the foundation of the new US industrial policy, the IRA aims to rebuild the country’s industrial capacity, including 500 billion US dollars in new spending and tax breaks, among which almost 400 billion aimed at boosting clean energy.[1] Across the Atlantic, the European Union expressed concerns about the potential loss of industrial competitiveness resulting from the IRA. In response, the EU unveiled its own Green Deal Industrial Plan (GDIP) in February 2023.[2] The objective of this plan is to promote the enhancement of net-zero manufacturing capacities in order to meet the EU’s climate targets. Both the IRA and the GDIP have a common goal of reducing dependence on China, especially in clean technology, although through different approaches. The US focuses on bringing high-value production back to its shores, while the EU aims to develop and diversify supply chains.[3] This divergence is also reflected in the debate between “decoupling” and “derisking”, with the latter recently gaining prominence as policymakers recognise the challenges of completely reshoring supply chains domestically.[4] The US and the EU share industrial and geoeconomic objectives, but will also encounter similar challenges, in particular concerning the first stages of green supply chains. Despite their heterogeneous approaches, Western policymakers will in fact have to secure critical raw materials for clean technology manufacturing, with the aim of resourcing the energy transition.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, European Union, Institutions, Energy, and Raw Materials
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
575. In the Middle East, Biden Is on the Razor’s Edge
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- US President Joe Biden is walking on thin ice while he attempts to deal with the most serious crisis in the Middle East since the ill-conceived US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Biden has orientated his administration’s action along three tracks: supporting Israel; protecting as many Palestinian civilians as possible while also resuscitating the defunct Middle East peace process; and preventing the conflict from extending to the wider region.[1] The problem is, reconciling these three priorities may be impossible.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civilians, Hamas, Protection, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America
576. Why El Salvador’s Anti-Crime Measures Cannot (and Should Not) Be Exported
- Author:
- Tiziano Breda
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- One year has passed since El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele launched a “war on gangs”, embedded in a state of exception that has since been renewed monthly. The government claims to have arrested 66,000 alleged gang members, projecting the image of an upfront battle against criminal organisations that has yielded results in bringing down murder rates. This has earned Bukele the approval not only of most Salvadorans, but millions of citizens throughout Latin America. His methods have become a foreign policy tool and a driver of electoral disputes in the region. But are they “exportable” to other countries? And should they?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Crime, Human Rights, Law Enforcement, Democracy, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- South America, North America, El Salvador, and United States of America
577. The Socioeconomic and Gendered Organization of Social Reproduction in the Anglo-American Welfare Model: Transformations in the US and UK over Four Decades
- Author:
- Katherine Moos and Pilar Gonalons-Pons
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- Drawing on both gender regime theory and social reproduction theory, this paper employs survey data to offer a quantitative comparative analysis of the socioeconomic and gendered organization of social reproduction in the United States and United Kingdom from 1973 to 2013. Our analysis focuses on household production, paid work, and government social benefits to examine how men and women of different socioeconomic groups contribute to household social reproduction. We combine data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), the Multinational Time-Use Surveys (MTUS), and additional sources to construct an integrated dataset of harmonized household survey data. We find that household social reproduction in the US and UK reflect variations and path dependence within the Anglo-American model. While our results illustrate important shifts in the organization of social reproduction related to neoliberalism and feminism, we do not observe that social reproduction in either country has been fundamentally destabilized, refamiliarized, or degendered.
- Topic:
- Welfare, Socioeconomics, Gender, and Social Reproduction
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America
578. Not So Clear: Revisiting the Impacts of Cap-and-Trade on Environmental Justice
- Author:
- Michael Ash and Manuel Pastor
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- A recent article by Danae Hernandez-Cortes and Kyle Meng (HCM) suggests that the cap-and-trade program in California was accompanied by improvements in the degree of environmental inequity in the state. We note that that the model used to estimate this improvement is not well-designed to capture the variation in facility adjustment to the cap-and-trade program that is at the heart of the environmental justice debate about potential shifts in co-pollutant exposure. We also show that even if that were a proper approach, the estimates offered by HCM may be problematic due to data issues, including proper identification of facilities subject to the cap, shifting results when we require that facilities have observations both before and after the cap, and robustness when we apply their method estimates beyond their selected subsample to the broader range of facilities. As such, the environmental justice implications of California’s carbon market remain an unsettled empirical question.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Trade, Pollution, and Environmental Justice
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
579. Factsheet: Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America (VHPA)
- Author:
- Bridge Initiative Team
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America (VHPA) is a Hindu far-right organization and the US offshoot of India’s Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), designated as a “militant religious organization” by the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) World Factbook for a number of years. VHPA’s leaders have a history of making anti-Muslim remarks, it has platformed far-right Hindu nationalists and recently has targeted American Muslim politicians and rights organizations who call attention to the persecution of Muslims and rising Hindu nationalism in India.
- Topic:
- Islamophobia, Far Right, Narendra Modi, Political Extremism, Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America (VHPA), and Hindu Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
580. Factsheet: Coalition of Hindus of North America (CoHNA)
- Author:
- Bridge Initiative Team
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- Coalition of Hindus of North America (CoHNA) is a Marietta, Georgia-based Hindu right-wing advocacy organization known for targeting critics of Hindu nationalism and those who highlight the persecution of religious minorities, particularly Muslims and Christians in India. CoHNA supports the discriminatory policies of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and has engaged in campaigns targeting academics and politicians who call attention to the dangers of Hindu nationalism. Leaders of CoHNA also share close associations with far-right Hindu nationalist individuals and groups.
- Topic:
- Islamophobia, Far Right, Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America (VHPA), Hindu Nationalism, and Coalition of Hindus of North America (CoHNA)
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
581. Factsheet: War on Drugs: Surveillance
- Author:
- Bridge Initiative Team
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The US War on Drugs has used surveillance to aid in policing, curb the international drug trade, and enforce drug prohibition since 1971. Technologies and techniques used as part of the “war” include wiretapping, aerial surveillance drones, thermal imaging, GPS tracking, entrapment, the use of informants, and parallel construction. The use of surveillance has raised Fourth Amendment concerns about protection from unreasonable searches and seizures, and further human rights concerns about privacy. The US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has been at the forefront of the War on Drugs’ surveillance efforts, and has often collaborated with the National Security Agency (NSA). These surveillance efforts laid the groundwork for the US War on Terror, particularly the 2001 PATRIOT Act.
- Topic:
- War on Drugs, Surveillance, Islamophobia, and Muslims
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
582. Factsheet: War on Terror
- Author:
- Bridge Initiative Team
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The Global War on Terror (GWoT) is an international military campaign launched by the United States under President George W. Bush following the September 11th, 2001 attacks by Al-Qaeda. Dubbed the ‘Forever Wars,’ this conflict is a borderless and timeless campaign that has touched nearly 40 percent of the world, cost the United States an estimated $8 trillion, and has killed more than 900,000 people (although the actual death toll is likely to be much higher). The WoT discourse amplified Islamophobia as it dehumanized Muslims by tying them to terrorism and constructing them as ‘inherently violent’ and a threat. Along with formal military warfare, the WoT has also comprised of large-scale surveillance measures in the U.S, torture, global drone strikes, blacksites, and the Guantanamo Bay military prison.
- Topic:
- Torture, Drones, Surveillance, Islamophobia, War on Terror, George W. Bush, and Guantanamo Bay
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and United States of America
583. Factsheet: Global Hindu Heritage Foundation
- Author:
- Bridge Initiative Team
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The Global Hindu Heritage Foundation (GHHF) is a Frisco, Texas-based Hindu non-profit organization. GHHF supports Hindu nationalist ideology and regularly publishes discriminatory, inflammatory, and intolerant content about Islam and Christianity. The group promotes anti-Muslim conspiracy theories, has raised funds to aid the demolition of Churches in India, and supports the Hindu nationalist mission of making India a Hindu-only nation.
- Topic:
- Islamophobia, Hindu Nationalism, Global Hindu Heritage Foundation (GHHF), and Anti-Christian
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
584. Improving the Use of Lessons Learned and Other Evidence for Atrocity Prevention in the US Department of State
- Author:
- Tallan Donine, Julia Fromholz, and Lawerence Woocher
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- There are no simple solutions to the prevention of mass atrocities. Decisions about what actions to take to address atrocity risks are invariably difficult judgment calls. Given the stakes, policy makers should make every effort to increase their chances—even if just marginally—of making wise decisions. One way to improve policy choices is to use all available information and insights that are relevant to the decision, including lessons or evidence drawn from analysis of experience or data. Virtually every report on US government efforts to prevent mass atrocities has called for greater investment in lessons learned efforts. At the same time, recent legislation and policy initiatives demonstrate that the US government is increasingly committed to using evidence in policy making across the board, including in atrocity prevention. Yet, no study has analyzed the obstacles to using lessons learned and other evidence for atrocity prevention and how they might be addressed. This report seeks to help fill the gap. This report focuses specifically on the use of lessons learned and other evidence within the US Department of State as a whole, given its lead role in developing and carrying out US foreign policy, including actions to help prevent and respond to mass atrocities. The State Department is a large and diverse institution, making it difficult to characterize the degree to which it exhibits the attributes associated with effective use of lessons learned and other evidence. Nevertheless, we identified a number of common themes across interviews with 25 former and current officials, which paint a picture of the difficulty of encouraging use of lessons learned and other evidence for atrocity prevention in the State Department and help identify potential areas for improvement. This report intends to draw attention to areas of atrocity prevention policy making that could be strengthened; it should not be read as an assessment of any particular entity within the Department.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, State Department, and Atrocity Prevention
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
585. Resilience of Faith: Post-Covid Religious Trends and the Effect of Ecclesiastical Policy in the United States
- Author:
- Angela Cools, Carlos Esparza, and Jiwon Park
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper delves into the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and related policies on religious attendance, with a particular focus on Catholic church attendance in the United States. The study utilizes smartphone location data from SafeGraph Inc. to track weekly religious attendance trends from 2019 through the end of 2022. This approach offers a comprehensive analysis of how attendance patterns evolved during the pandemic. Notably, the study leverages two distinctive features of the Catholic Church: its division into 175 U.S. territorial dioceses, each overseen by a bishop, and the requirement for members to attend Sunday Mass. The study reveals several significant findings. Firstly, it highlights the dramatic decline in religious service attendance following the outbreak of Covid-19. In comparison to 2019 attendance levels, Catholic church visits lagged behind restaurants and other religious institutions throughout 2020 and 2021. However, by 2022, both Catholic and non-Catholic religious attendance had rebounded, returning to approximately 90% of their 2019 levels by October 2022. Secondly, the paper explores the impact of religious policies, focusing on the lifting of dispensations that temporarily exempted Catholics from the requirement to attend Sunday Mass during the pandemic. The study uncovers that dispensation lifting resulted in a 4 percentage point increase in weekend church attendance compared to the 2019 baseline. Notably, this boost was short-lived, lasting for only six weeks following the lifting of dispensations. It's worth mentioning that the effect of lifting dispensations was smaller in magnitude compared to the impact of church reopenings, which were associated with a 6 to 10 percentage point increase in attendance. Thirdly, the study emphasizes the lack of a significant correlation between the lifting of dispensations and changes in visits to non-Catholic religious institutions or restaurants. This suggests that the impact of dispensation lifting on church attendance was independent of other reopening events. In the broader context, this paper contributes to the understanding of religious practice in the face of adverse events, such as natural disasters or economic crises. It distinguishes itself by using actual behavioral data, offering high-frequency insights into the dynamics of religious practice, and benefiting from a large sample size. Additionally, the study sheds light on the impact of religious policies on individual behavior, particularly through the novel exogenous variation introduced by the lifting of dispensations in U.S. Catholic dioceses. Furthermore, this research aligns with the broader body of literature on the effects of social distancing measures on mobility patterns. It contributes valuable insights into mobility within religious institutions, contrasting it with mobility trends in restaurants and bars.
- Topic:
- Religion, Catholic Church, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
586. A Review of Changes in the Global Value Chain of Latin America
- Author:
- Sungwoo Hong
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Based on the findings of the value chain analysis conducted on major Latin American countries, it suggests that these countries may have derived certain economic benefits. This can be attributed to the increased exports to the United States and China, where Latin American countries served as substitute countries for imports during the intensifying competition between the two nations. Amidst the U.S.-China hegemony race and the supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a notable shift in focus. Particularly, the United States is actively working to establish secure and stable supply chains, primarily centered around its own country and allied nations, with the intention of reducing dependence on China. As part of this process, the United States advocates for reshoring or near-shoring, which involves relocating production facilities to its home country or neighboring nations. Additionally, the U.S. is implementing various incentives to support this objective. If near-shoring takes place in Latin America, they can be regarded as favorable locations for establishing a foothold to access North America or securing key minerals. Additionally, Latin American countries with substantial backward linkages should be prioritized in trade with the United States. Among them, Mexico and Brazil, which exhibit relatively high levels of backward linkage within Latin America, are considered suitable hubs due to their capacity for generating significant foreign added value in their exports to the United States.
- Topic:
- Economics, Trade, Global Value Chains, COVID-19, and Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America
587. Russia’s Relations with China Amidst US-China-Russia Strategic Competition
- Author:
- Joungho Park, Boogyun Kang, Seung-soo Hyun, and Sunghoon Jeh
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study comprehensively examines the development of Russia's strategic relationship with China amidst intensifying strategic competition among the United States, China, and Russia. Specifically, we analyze the fundamental meaning and direction of Russia's strategy toward China in the process of shaping a new global order, and the key features and characteristics of cooperation between the two countries in a wide range of fields spanning politics, diplomacy, security, military, economy, society, and culture. Accordingly, this research aims to draw valuable policy insights for Korea based on evaluation of the direction and level of Russia-China cooperation from the Russian perspective. In this respect, this study is composed of the following four parts. Part II examines Russia's perception of China and its policy direction, as well as evaluates the prospects of Russia-China relations. Part III conducts an in-depth analysis of the opportunities and constraints associated with Russia-China cooperation in the fields of advanced technology, energy, and finance, which are key strategic areas for strengthening Russia's economic security amidst intense Western sanctions against its economy. In Part IV, we explore the current status and characteristics of cooperation in the fields of education and research, culture and arts, mass media, tourism, etc. Part V presents policy implications for Korea, particularly suggesting promising directions and tasks for the Northern Policy given the major turning point in the changing external environment.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and United States of America
588. Policy Implications of the Biden Administration’s Global Supply Chain Reorganization
- Author:
- Gusang Kang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study indirectly estimates the impact of implementation of the Biden government’s supply chain restructuring policy on the U.S. and Korean economies, and derives policy implications accordingly. For the first analysis to indirectly examine the economic impact of the global supply chain reorganization of the semiconductor and battery industries, we estimate the impact of changes in the export share of the semiconductor or battery industry by country on the change in GDP per capita. Our results show an increase in the export share of semiconductors or batteries has a statistically significant increase in GDP per capita. These results support the reason why the Biden administration is moving to expand its exports through the reorganization of the U.S.-centered supply chain in the industry. By reorganizing the supply chain centered on the U.S., President Biden intends to attract production facilities in weak sectors such as memory semiconductors, foundries, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing to the U.S. through cooperation with partner countries such as Taiwan and Korea in the short term. In conclusion, this policy promotion seems to be part of a strategy to discover sustainable economic growth engines for the U.S. while checking China’s technological rise in key industries, and restoring U.S. leadership. Secondly, we estimate the impact of changes in export concentration or import concentration by semiconductor or battery item in the U.S. and Korea on the change in net exports by the two countries. First of all, in the case of the U.S. semiconductor industry, changes in export concentration and import concentration did not have a statistically significant effect on changes in net exports of the corresponding item. However, in the case of the Korean semiconductor industry, an increase in export concentration had a negative impact on the net export of the item, whereas a change in import concentration did not have a statistically significant effect on the change in Korea’s net export of the same item. In the case of the U.S. battery industry, as the import concentration by item increases, the U.S. net export of the same item decreases. However, we find that both the increase in the concentration of exports and the concentration of imports in the Korean battery industry decrease net exports of the product. Taken together, it can be inferred that the concentration of supply chains in the semiconductor and battery industries in the U.S. or Korea has the potential to hinder economic growth by reducing net exports of the relevant items in both countries. Based on the analysis results, it is necessary to strengthen norms-based supply chain cooperation with the U.S. and efforts are needed to diversify the lithium-ion battery supply chain.
- Topic:
- Economics, Supply Chains, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
589. Increasing supply chain risks and Implications for Korea
- Author:
- Won Seok Choi and Hyoungmin Han
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study starts by highlighting how geopolitical factors, such as the US-China conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, are reshaping global supply chains. The US-China conflict, marked by tariff wars and policy shifts, particularly affects key sectors like semiconductors and batteries. These conflicts reveal vulnerabilities in supply chains concentrated in specific countries and have been exacerbated by external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic. From these results, it suggests strategies for Korea in response to these global supply chain changes. These include stabilizing supply chain cooperation with the U.S. and China, strengthening connections with emerging countries, and forming multilateral or bilateral supply chain alliances.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, South Korea, and United States of America
590. U.S. Trade Strategies and Korea-U.S. Cooperation Plans
- Author:
- Gu Sang Kang, Hyok Jung Kim, Jonghyuk Kim, Hyuk Ju Kwon, Eunbin Park, and Yeo Joon Yoon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The U.S. has taken a leading role in global discussions, not only in addressing major economic and trade issues but also in formulating cooperative measures on the international stage. Consequently, understanding the U.S. position and response strategies for each critical issue arising from external shocks is essential. This understanding holds significant importance in shaping Korea's mid- to long-term foreign economic strategy. By comprehending the U.S. position and response strategies, particularly regarding major issues, this study aims to derive Korea’s future trade strategies with the U.S. and develop cooperation plans with the U.S. As a result of conducting research under these objectives, the following cooperation strategies between South Korea and the United States have been derived. First, in the context of supply chain restructuring, South Korea should consider expanding local investment and production in the semiconductor and battery sectors within the U.S. close collaboration between the government and companies is essential to maximize national interests. It is crucial for our companies to take advantage of the tax incentives and other regulatory incentives offered by the U.S. government when entering the U.S. market, and our government should provide diplomatic support for these efforts. Regarding digital trade, South Korea should actively participate in international discussions led by the U.S. to set standards for essential infrastructure in the global digital transformation, such as advanced communication networks like 5G and 6G. Further-more, South Korea should actively lead discussions within the IPEF on the Trade Facilitation and Digital Commerce Working Group to overcome limitations within the KORUS FTA's digital trade provisions and collaborate with participating countries to develop a roadmap for digital trade norms. In the area of climate change mitigation, South Korea and the U.S. should strengthen their cooperation by promoting joint research in environmentally friendly, low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen production and utilization, fuel cells, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and energy storage devices. Additionally, both countries should collaborate on producing related products. Furthermore, South Korea should proactively engage with the U.S. in discussions related to climate change policies that the U.S. and the EU are considering. This proactive engagement can help increase the effectiveness of collaborative by anticipating the possibility that these policies may be-come international norms in the future.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
591. 2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
- Author:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Migration, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Partnerships, Weapons, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Logistics, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
592. China’s Future Military Capabilities
- Author:
- Roger Cliff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America identifies China as the “pacing challenge” for the US military. This monograph examines the process by which China’s military capabilities are developed, the capabilities China’s military is seeking to acquire in the future, and the resulting implications for the US military. To date, all the extant studies have merely described the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army is currently acquiring. This monograph goes further by drawing on the Chinese military’s publications to identify and discuss the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army seeks to acquire in the future. The monograph finds China’s military is engaged in a comprehensive program to field a dominant array of military capabilities for ground, sea, air, space, and cyberspace warfare. Countering these capabilities will require the United States and its allies to engage in an equally comprehensive effort. The monograph’s findings will enable US military planners and policy practitioners to understand the long-term goals of China’s development of military capabilities and to anticipate and counter China’s realization of new capabilities so the United States can maintain its military advantage over the long term.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Strategic Planning, Future, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
593. Americans and the Dragon: Lessons in Coalition Warfighting from the Boxer Uprising
- Author:
- Mitchell G. Klingenberg
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Drawing from archival materials at the US Army Heritage and Education Center and the United States Military Academy at West Point, numerous published primary sources, and a range of secondary sources, this monograph offers an overview of the China Relief Expedition from June 1900 to the moment of liberation in August. Its considerations range from the geopolitical to the strategic and down to the tactical levels of war. US forces partnered alongside the combined naval and land forces of multiple nations, thus constituting the first contingency, expeditionary, and multinational coalition in American military history. In the face of numerous obstacles conditioned by enemy forces, the environment, and internal to the informal coalition itself, American forces succeeded in liberating their besieged legation. While the character of war has evolved since 1900, students of war should see through disparities that appear to separate the China Relief Expedition from the historical present.
- Topic:
- War, History, Armed Forces, Army, Coalition, Boxer Rebellion, and Force Protection
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
594. Fall 2023 edition of Strategic Visions
- Author:
- Debbie Sharnak, Gregory Urwin, Richard Immerman, and Beth Bailey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Visions
- Institution:
- Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
- Abstract:
- Contents: News from the Director……… 2 Note from the Davis Fellow…. 7 CENFAD Community Interviews Dr. Debbie Sharnak……. 8 Dr. Gregory Urwin……… 16 Dr. Richard Immerman.. 23 Dr. Beth Bailey……….... 33 Book Reviews Moral Majorities Across the Americas: Brazil, the United States, and the Creation of the Religious Right, reviewed by Lucas de Souza Martins…………………….. 41 Peruvian Foreign Policy in the Modern Era, reviewed by Casey VanSise…………………… 44 Freedom's Captives: Slavery and Gradual Emancipation on the Colombian Black Pacific, reviewed by Audrey Rankin............... 47
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, History, Slavery, Political Science, and Religious Right
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Colombia, and United States of America
595. Spring 2023 edition of Strategic Visions
- Author:
- Mitchell Orenstein, Holly Mayer, Alan McPherson, Ryan Langton, Gene Rotberg, and Philip Evanson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Visions
- Institution:
- Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
- Abstract:
- Contents: News from the Director. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 AHA Reception. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Spring 2023 Colloquium. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Army War College Visit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Spring 2023 Prizes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Second CENFAD Emerging Scholar. . . . .5 Thanks to the Davis Fellow. . . . . . . . . . . . .5 News from the CENFAD Community. . . . . . .6 Note from the Davis Fellow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 CENFAD Professor Artemy Kalinovsky Introduces New Course on the War in Ukraine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 CENFAD Community Interviews Dr. Mitchell Orenstein . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Dr. Holly Mayer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Short Essay, “So You Want to Be President,” by Gene Rotberg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Short Essay, “The Brazilian Presidential Election of 2022 and the Crisis in Brazilian Democracy,” by Dr. Philip Evanson . . . . . . . .27 Book Reviews The Ghost at the Feast: America and the Collapse of World Order, reviewed by Graydon Dennison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Globalization, History, Elections, Strategic Competition, and Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
596. VIEWPOINT: IS MILITARY AID REALLY THE BEST WAY TO HELP UKRAINE?
- Author:
- Alexandre Christoyannopoulos, Molly Wallace, and Ned Dobos
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Ukraine has received tens of billions of dollars worth of military aid since the Russian invasion began one year ago. The international consensus seems to be that supporting Ukraine means financing its war effort. But a few dissenting voices have emerged of late, more ambivalent about the prudence—and ethics—of the current policy. Colonel Douglas MacGregor, a former advisor to the US Secretary of Defence, has warned that the choice of cure could turn out to be worse than the disease. At least 7,000 Ukrainian civilians have already perished in the war. Thousands more have been injured, and millions have been displaced. MacGregor’s primary concern is that the bleeding will continue for as long as the fighting does. Russian forces advance, Ukrainian forces resist with violence, Russia responds with counter-violence, and the bodies continue to pile up. The Ukrainian state retains its sovereignty, but eventually we get to a point where, to quote MacGregor, “There are no longer any Ukrainians left!” This is hyperbole, of course, but that should not distract from the valid point MacGregor is making. States exist for the sake of their citizens, not the other way around. Therefore, if a given method of defending the state is causing its citizens to be killed or to flee en masse, that is a compelling reason to explore alternatives.
- Topic:
- Resistance, Armed Conflict, Nonviolence, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
597. DO NO HARM: US AID TO AFRICA AND CIVILIAN SECURITY
- Author:
- Patricia L. Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- During her recent trip to Africa, US Vice President Kamala Harris announced a $100 million commitment over ten years to West African Nations to fend off the increasing threat of extremist groups. The announcement followed President Biden’s pledge of $55 billion to the continent for the next three years. While these promises reveal a US commitment to greater engagement with African states, the often-dodged question is whether citizens of these states will benefit. Will US security aid improve human security in fragile and conflict-affected African states? How is US security assistance likely to affect governance and state repression for citizens that often suffer at the hands of both extremist groups and their own security forces?
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Human Rights, War on Terror, Civilians, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and United States of America
598. Presumptively Antisemitic: Islamophobic Tropes in the Palestine-Israel Discourse
- Author:
- Race and Rights (CSRR) Center for Security
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- A bastion of free speech, individual liberty, and equality. This is the mantra our government repeats across the world and teaches nationwide in American schools. Rarely stated, however, are the varying limitations imposed on persons seeking to exercise such rights according to their identity. Protection of fundamental rights is at its zenith when exercised by white, Judeo-Christian communities, while exceptions are frequently invoked when racial or ethnic minorities exercise the same rights to challenge policies and laws harmful to their communities. Members of the majority engaged in dissent are treated as patriots with different political views. Minorities who dissent are treated as security and cultural threats deserving of social stigma at best or criminalization at worst.1 This racialized double standard is most acute for Muslim or Arab Americans when they exercise their free speech rights to criticize the U.S. government’s failure to hold Israel accountable for its systematic violations of Palestinians’ human rights. Often repeated statements in support of Israel across U.S. administrations stand as a reminder of Israel’s central place in U.S. foreign policy. A most recent example occurred in Jerusalem on July 14, 2022 when President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid issued a joint statement declaring: “The United States and Israel reaffirm the unbreakable bonds between our two countries and the enduring commitment of the United States to Israel’s security. Our countries further reaffirm that the strategic U.S.-Israel partnership is based on a bedrock of shared values, shared interests, and true friendship.”2 Among the countless analyses expounding on the strong bond between the U.S. and Israel in policy terms, few examine the relationship between Islamophobia and U.S. policy on Palestine-Israel.3 Specifically, when Muslims and Arabs in America defend the rights of Palestinians or criticize Israeli state policy, they are often baselessly presumed to be motivated by a hatred for Jews rather than support for human rights, freedom, and consistent enforcement of international law. The resulting harm occurs at the individual and systemic level. Systemically, informed and critical debate about U.S. foreign policy is hampered by censorship campaigns targeting college students, faculty, human rights organizations, journalists, and elected officials.4 Individually, Muslim and Arab Americans are defamed and effectively excluded from critical public debates pertaining to U.S. policies executed in their names and with their tax funds. Should Arabs and Muslims exercise their constitutional rights of free speech and assembly in defense of Palestinian human rights, they frequently become targets of aggressive intimidation, harassment, and blacklisting campaigns5 in their workplaces, towns, and universities.6 This report examines how Islamophobia shapes American foreign policy in the three following ways: 1) restricting open debate about unconditional U.S. support for Israel notwithstanding documented and systematic violations of international law by the Israeli government,7 2) perpetuating racist tropes that Muslims and Arabs innately hate Jews, and 3) discrediting the Palestinian people from realizing their full civil, political, national, and human rights. Such racialized foreign and domestic policy was brought into sharp relief in 2022, with the response in the United States and Europe to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. As Americans in and out of government united in supporting the political, civil, and national rights and defense of Ukraine and Ukrainians, the approach in Washington to similar Palestinian interests ranges, with a few exceptions, from qualified, muted neutrality to outright hostile opposition.8 Such double standards prompt multiple questions that reveal how race and racism infect foreign policy and the treatment of minority communities who espouse unpopular views or dissent from the political orthodoxy, including the defense of human rights for all. What role does Islamophobia play in the formation of policies that restrict Palestinians from the same right of self-determination that are celebrated for Ukrainians and Israelis? How does Islamophobia silence and punish Muslim and Arab Americans who defend Palestinians’ rights in universities, the media, the public square, and online? This report explores these questions by addressing three key components of Islamophobia and related (though not identical) anti-Palestinian racism. First, Islamophobia adversely shapes public discourse on Palestine in the United States, currently and predating the “War on Terror.” Racist stereotypes of Muslims as savage are deployed to promote discriminatory policies against Palestinians. Second, an ecosystem of Zionist institutions and prominent individuals perpetuate Islamophobia to promote the policies and goals of Israel in its theft and occupation of Palestinian territory, decades of dispossession and marginalization of the Palestinian people, and denial of the rights of Palestinian refugees. Finally, Islamophobia is juxtaposed against antisemitism, portraying Muslims globally and domestically as agents of antisemitism; attempting to create a competition, or even a zero-sum scenario between Muslims and Jews–rather than allowing principled opposition to both antisemitism and Islamophobia to unite joint social justice struggles. As a result, legitimate efforts to combat antisemitism are disingenuously co-opted to undermine Palestinian aspirations for self-determination and human rights, as well as to defame Muslim and Arab human rights defenders as inherently antisemitic. Palestinian aspirations are often portrayed by the media and Zionist organizations as a cover for a uniquely Arab and Muslim antisemitism. Related is the tendency to pathologize Palestinians and all aspects of their political, cultural and social lives. This both stigmatizes the very idea of civil, national, and human rights of Palestinians and attempts to censor Arab and Muslim Americans’ political activism. Discrediting any criticism of Israeli state practices violating Palestinian human rights as antisemitism overlooks the growing number of Jews and Muslims working together to promote Palestinian rights.9 Concerns of American supporters of Israel, including Jewish Americans who have a deeply personal stake in the well-being of the Jewish people of Israel, and American supporters of Palestinians, who have an equally deep and personal stake in the well-being of the Palestinian people in Palestine, are not equally considered when crafting American policy in the region. Islamophobia, though far from being the sole reason for U.S. policy exceptionalizing Palestine, is a substantial factor. In turn, Muslims or Arabs (who are often mistaken as all Muslim) who criticize America’s unconditional support for Israeli state practices, regardless of the human rights implications, are immediately ostracized as antisemitic. The consequent harm is twofold: Palestinians’ lives and rights are discounted, and Muslim and Arab Americans are denied meaningful participation in public discourse on U.S. foreign policy and the ability to exercise their free speech rights.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, Minorities, Freedom of Expression, Islamophobia, Anti-Semitism, Discourse, Racism, Self-Determination, Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
599. Shining a Light on New Jersey’s Secret State Intelligence System
- Author:
- Race and Rights (CSRR) Center for Security
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- Civil liberties in the United States have been eroding for over two decades. Under the auspices of national security, federal agencies working with their state counterparts have built an expansive homeland security apparatus, facilitated by laws granting national security officials broader surveillance and investigative authorities. Prior to the attempted insurrection of January 6, 2021, national security powers nearly exclusively targeted Muslim and Arab communities – with many South Asian communities targeted in the immediate wake of 9/11 as well. At the same time, these powers have also furthered the mass incarceration of African American communities. The most invasive, and simultaneously secret, post-9/11 tool has been state fusion centers. Fusion centers coordinate federal, state, and local law enforcement through complex intelligence-gathering systems that retain, analyze, synthesize, and distribute data – with minimal oversight. They have become institutionalized within the American law enforcement framework post-9/11 despite little, if any, tangible results to show for their intended original purpose: preventing terrorism. New Jersey’s Regional Operations Intelligence Center is a prime example of expansive over-policing that targets marginalized communities fueled by the red herring of national security concerns – while much of its work remains opaque and inscrutable. Shining a Light on New Jersey’s Secret State Intelligence System examines New Jersey law enforcement’s unique use of CIA-style intelligence-gathering, some of its known harms in certain, well-documented instances like the City of Camden, and the Kafkaesque legal regime that works to keep vast amounts of public information out of the public eye. Three recommendations for New Jersey policymakers would help reign in these unaccountable drivers of mass incarceration and allay concerns that civil liberties are not still on the chopping block for Muslim, Arab, South Asian, and African American communities in the Garden State: Governor Murphy should appoint an ombudsman to oversee New Jersey’s intelligence system. The mechanism for this appointment already exists by way of a long-ago issued executive order – but has never been used. This ombudsman should have the authority to oversee the ROIC’s activities in collaboration with minority communities most impacted by surveillance. The New Jersey legislature should mandate regular reporting by the Chief Intelligence Director to ensure that the state’s domestic intelligence-gathering apparatus is focusing on actual terrorist threats while preserving civil liberties for all. Civil society should conduct a People’s Audit of the fusion center to determine the privacy impact on New Jersey’s diverse populations.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Minorities, Counter-terrorism, Islamophobia, Civil Liberties, Arabs, and Muslims
- Political Geography:
- North America, New Jersey, and United States of America
600. The West, Israel and Settler Colonization of Palestine with Professor Prof. Joseph Massad
- Author:
- Joseph Massad
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- In this pivotal lecture, Professor Massad will delve into the intricate history of Western colonial intervention in Palestine, exploring the events that shaped the region both before and after the establishment of Israel. This lecture offers a comprehensive understanding of Israel's ongoing conflict with the Palestinian people, framed within the broader historical context of Western racism and its role in supporting and enabling these tensions.
- Topic:
- History, Colonialism, Settler Colonialism, Racism, and Palestinians
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America