Political Geography: United States of America / Publication Year: within 3 Years

301. Implications of Chinese Nuclear Weapons Modernization for the United States and Regional Allies

Author:: John Lee and Lavina Lee
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Based on current trends, China will become a quantitative and qualitative nuclear weapons peer of the United States by the early to mid-2030s with a diversified, accurate, and survivable force that will rival America’s. Rather than having only high-yield nuclear missiles as a strategic deterrent against nuclear attack, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is developing a range of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, the latter being lower-yield weapons usable in a conflict theater. Why is China seemingly going beyond its long-standing nuclear weapons approach of maintaining only a minimal deterrent or assured retaliation? Why has it chosen to rapidly develop its nuclear arsenal and related delivery system in a deliberately opaque manner? This report argues that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) decided to embark on such a rapid nuclear modernization not primarily because China wants to “win” a nuclear exchange against the US. Rather, Beijing wants to create political and psychological effects that lead to enormously important strategic and military effects. As the report explains, the CCP and PLA are using the rapid development of nuclear capability and related delivery systems to subdue the adversary and win without fighting. The following are components of achieving this: Degrade the adversary’s decision-making. Weaken the adversary’s will to fight. Undermine the adversary’s public support for war. Undermine the resolve of the adversary’s government from within. Support and enhance deterrence. The report assesses that there are three ways in which China uses nuclear modernization to change the material and psychological environment with important strategic effects that work to its advantage.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, and Modernization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

302. Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections

Author:: Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: A new survey for ECFR reveals people in many countries around the world are upbeat about the second Trump presidency. Many think Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and US-China relations. In contrast, US allies in Europe and South Korea are notably pessimistic about the incoming president—suggesting a further weakening of the geopolitical “West”. Ukrainians are slightly more positive than not about the impact Trump might have on ending the conflict with Russia. But they are deeply conflicted about what could be an acceptable compromise settlement with Moscow. Europeans will struggle to find internal unity or global power in leading an outright resistance to the new administration. But the survey reveals that many in the world regard the EU as a player equal to the US and China—a strength European leaders should draw on as they enter the turbulent new presidential term. Rather than harking back to a post-cold war liberal order, Europeans should focus on understanding and seeing opportunities in the new world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Elections, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

303. Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump

Author:: Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli, and Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: ECFR polling reveals the gloom that has fallen over European perceptions of the transatlantic relationship since early November. Respondents are more likely to call the US merely a “necessary partner” rather than an “ally”. But views of Donald Trump’s return vary markedly according to country and political outlook. That, and intra-European differences on both Russia-Ukraine and China, create ample opportunities for Trump to split Europeans. Building a broad coalition of “Euro-optimists” along with more cautious groups can help European leaders resist any such attempts—and even forge a new dawn in transatlantic relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

304. Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics

Author:: Agathe Demarais
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Eight months into the second term of Donald Trump, Europeans are still struggling to craft a coherent response to American geoeconomics policies in the trade, investment and financial spheres. The Trump administration poses massive challenges to Europe. It has imposed tariffs on nearly all US imports from the EU. It is also considering applying pressure on investors to pick sides between the US and China. Finally, it could soon try to engineer a forced depreciation of the dollar against other major currencies like the euro. For the EU, the best response to baffling Trumponomics is to keep calm and carry on. European policymakers should adopt a self-help mindset—resisting the urge to impose retaliatory measures that could damage European economies, avoiding futile fights over US policies that will not change, and above all, holding the bloc together. Europeans should also use this turbulent moment to push through controversial economic reforms. Such policies include deepening the single market to support those EU exporters that will lose market share in the US; leveraging access to the EU market for digital services; boosting innovation financing through regulatory changes; increasing the global role of the euro; and bracing for the coming currency wars. Europe’s ability to implement much-needed reforms will shape the bloc’s economic prospects, global standing and resilience long after Trump leaves the White House.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Investment, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

305. Reality show: Why Europe must not cave in Trump’s culture war

Author:: Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Europe is in a culture war with Trump’s America. Part of this involves Trumpists propping up their ideological allies in European politics. A deeper level involves humiliating Europeans in their dealings with the US. The two intertwine to tell a single story. Trump and his acolytes can only do this because Europeans let them. At the first level Trumpists exploit polarisation in societies and the rise of Europe’s “new right”. At the second they take advantage of division and hesitation among European leaders. It doesn’t have to be this way. A decade of crises has strengthened European sentiment among the public. Almost all member states still have mainstream-led, pro-European governments. This should give the EU’s politicians the courage to act—and defend a Europe that writes its own script. That would also help preserve a strong transatlantic alliance; one in which the EU and European countries are America’s peers, not its subordinates.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Donald Trump, and Culture War
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

306. Nuclear Deterrence Explained: Strategic Implications for Europe in the Absence of U.S. Extended Deterrence

Author:: Iakob Dadvani
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Recent developments in U.S. foreign policy discourse indicate two potential future directions: prioritization or retrenchment.1 Trump’s foreign policy rhetoric clearly reflects a tendency toward retrenchment, particularly with respect to Europe. The most prominent indicators of this shift include the potential U.S. withdrawal from NATO European command, or a significant downsizing of its role2 , which would reduce the alliance’s overall combat effectiveness. This change would necessitate increased defense spending from European countries to maintain credible conventional deterrence, as the aggregate military power must remain constant despite reduced American involvement. Further to this are the moves to solve the Russia-Ukraine war by pressuring Ukrainians into negotiations that result in an unjust peace without security guarantees.3 Such an outcome would likely lead to long-term instability across the European continent.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Donald Trump, Regional Security, Russia-Ukraine War, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

307. Policing Alternatives: A Public Opinion Survey

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Since 1980, incarceration in the U.S. has increased by about 400%, despite crime largely decreasing from the 1990s to the present.8 Currently, taxpayers are footing an annual bill of more than $80 billion, and yet recidivism rates in the U.S. are as high as 83%. An estimated one in six people in local jails and state and federal prisons are serving time for public order offenses, generally defined as charges that violate societal norms, such as charges relating to homelessness or disorderly conduct. Over 40% of incarcerated individuals have been diagnosed with a mental health condition — almost double that of the general population. As the human and financial costs of incarceration rise, alternative solutions are urgently needed in communities across the U.S. to address the needs of those struggling with mental health conditions, substance use concerns, and extreme poverty. For more than 10 years, activists and organizations in Atlanta have been developing ways to support and care for vulnerable members of their community. PAD was created in response to decades of heavy reliance on the criminal legal system to manage social issues such as poverty, homelessness, mental health conditions, and substance use concerns. In 2013, a group of Atlanta activists began advocating for the decriminalization of a variety of public order offenses disproportionately impacting low-income individuals and people of color. In 2015, these activists formed a broad coalition to advocate for the creation of the Atlanta Fulton Pre-Arrest Diversion Design Team, which was authorized by the Atlanta City Council and Fulton County Board of Commissioners to begin planning diversion services. The resulting PAD Initiative, originally implemented in two police precincts, has since evolved into a citywide, nationally recognized model for community-based, non-police response to quality-of-life concerns.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Rule of Law, Mental Health, Peace, Police, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

308. Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: What’s new? Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has upended European security and created a reality in which EU and NATO member states, on one side, and Russia, on the other, view each other as fundamental threats, even as the United States is poised to become a less reliable partner for its allies. Why does it matter? An unstable Europe has economic and security repercussions globally, not least given the nuclear capabilities of Russia, on one hand, and NATO on the other. A deeper understanding of assumptions and threat perceptions on both sides can help key players manage the risks of an increasingly militarised region. What should be done? Diplomacy and deterrence are both required. Kyiv’s backers should seek a settlement to the war that ensures Ukraine’s continued capacity to defend itself. European allies should reduce reliance on the U.S. and – together with Washington – pursue risk mitigation with Russia through limits on weapons deployments and other activities.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Multilateralism, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

309. Regulating Digital Fintech: How States Navigate Power and Geopolitics

Author:: Bipul Biplav Mukherjee
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This study explores the evolving role of fintech regulation as a strategic tool of geopolitical influence, highlighting how states leverage digital finance, data governance and artificial intelligence to reshape global power structures. It contrasts the regulatory models of the United States, China, and the European Union, each guided by distinct imperatives of innovation, state control, and digital sovereignty. The analysis underscores the growing politicization of fintech and the intensifying race for digital supremacy among major powers. Within this context, the article engages with issues of data decentralization, cross-sectoral data-sharing, and open banking—developments that promote financial inclusion and innovation but also generate complex governance challenges. The study concludes that coordinated transnational regulatory frameworks are essential to safeguarding financial stability and mitigating systemic risks in an increasingly contested and fragmented digital financial ecosystem.
Topic:: International Relations, Governance, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Artificial Intelligence, Banking, and Power Structure
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

310. Cambio Climático y Transición Energética: Una Transformación Geopolítica en Marcha

Author:: Xira Ruiz
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: El artículo analiza la dimensión geopolítica del cambio climático y de la transición energética, en un contexto internacional marcado por la rivalidad entre grandes potencias y la fragmentación del orden global. Se exploran los efectos que estas transformaciones generan en la reconfiguración de las interdependencias materiales, el acceso a recursos críticos y la redefinición de la seguridad energética. El texto se centra especialmente en el papel de Estados Unidos, China y la Unión Europea, así como en las implicaciones para el Sur Global. También analiza el desplazamiento del liderazgo climático desde los marcos multilaterales tradicionales hacia nuevas formas de diplomacia orientadas a la competencia por el liderazgo tecnológico y el control de cadenas de valor. El artículo concluye que la transición energética implica una reorganización estratégica de las relaciones internacionales, que genera nuevas formas de dependencia, redefine las prioridades de seguridad y plantea desafíos para la equidad global y la gobernanza compartida.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, Energy Transition, Energy Security, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: China, United States of America, and Global South

311. Delivering on Draghi after Munich: A quantum perspective

Author:: Ulrich Mans
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In light of shifting transatlantic relations, Europe must assert greater technological sovereignty, with quantum technology emerging as a key strategic domain. The EU already has a strong foundation in quantum, but risks falling behind due to fragmented policies, low private investment, and supply chain dependencies. While recent public investments and initiatives like the Quantum Flagship and Quantum Pact are promising, Europe needs a bold commercialisation strategy and coherent regulatory framework. To secure leadership, the EU must accelerate industry adoption, align member state efforts, and foster global partnerships, including with the US, UK, and Switzerland. Quantum presents a defining test for Europe’s innovation agenda – and a critical opportunity to deliver on the Draghi Report’s call for strategic autonomy.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Innovation, Transatlantic Relations, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

312. Countering the Digital Silk Road

Author:: Vivek Chilukuri and Ruby Scanlon
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: he year 2025 marks the 10th anniversary of the Digital Silk Road (DSR), China’s effort to strengthen its global ties and influence through technology. In the decade since the initiative’s launch, technology has moved to the center of emerging market priorities, China’s domestic and foreign policy, and the U.S.-China competition. Rapid digitalization, spurred by emerging market policies seeking to harness technology’s potential, has led to surging global demand for the connective infrastructure and cutting-edge services that will power the modern world. But even as technology vaults to the top of government and corporate agendas, the DSR’s origins, goals, and tools remain obscured, complicating U.S. and allied efforts to assess its effectiveness and mobilize a response. Those seeking official strategies and plans behind the DSR will be disappointed. Its nature is amorphous, expanding alongside Beijing’s growing interest in strategic technologies and receding as commercial and political interests require. Ten years after its inception, the Digital Silk Road is, paradoxically, at once less visible and more ubiquitous than ever. Launched in 2015 as the digital arm of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the DSR grew into its own effort as technology leadership became increasingly important to Beijing. Rising backlash against the BRI and the DSR abroad, however, made formal affiliation with a state-led initiative a liability, and Chinese officials and companies now rarely tout official linkages. Domestic economic headwinds and fiscal pressures also caused Beijing to retrench from the earlier years of massive state-backed infrastructure projects in favor of a “small yet smart” approach that emphasized technology as a low-cost, high-impact avenue of continued developmental support. At home, Beijing embraced technology as a path to economic diversification, development, and security consistent with the Made in China 2025 initiative. Private and semiprivate companies—Huawei, ZTE, Alibaba, and Tencent—led the way, with considerable success. Huawei is now the world’s top provider of telecommunications equipment and operates in over 170 countries. Beijing’s public retreat from the DSR should not be mistaken for failure. On the contrary, the DSR’s ambition—to strengthen China’s economic and geopolitical leadership through technology—has now suffused Beijing’s broader domestic and foreign policy. The DSR has largely disappeared because it has succeeded and become subsumed. The DSR may not be state directed, like the BRI, but it is undoubtedly state enabled. At every stage, government support drives the innovation, deployment, and scale needed within China to underprice and outcompete in the wider world—in 5G telecommunications equipment, facial recognition cameras, legacy semiconductors, and, more recently, commercial drones and electric vehicles. Over the past decade, U.S. and allied policymakers have slowly awoken to the varied, overlapping dangers of the DSR. Concern has focused on how the diffusion of Chinese-linked digital infrastructure could create cybersecurity and espionage risks and avenues of coercive influence for Beijing over emerging markets, akin to the dynamics of the BRI. Others have focused on the spread of techno-authoritarianism. All these concerns are valid and troubling. At the same time, it is neither realistic nor desirable to arrest, let alone reverse, the diffusion of all Chinese-linked digital infrastructure and services everywhere. China remains the top trading partner for most of the world, and technology represents an increasing share of that trade. Not all Chinese-linked technology diffusion is inherently nefarious; indeed, much of it involves innocuous consumer goods that pose little or no risk. Hysteria about Chinese technology diffusion is not a strategy. U.S. and allied policymakers must therefore prioritize the key countries and technology domains that both implicate core economic and security interests and represent credible opportunities to outcompete Chinese offerings.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Strategic Competition, and Digital Silk Road (DSR)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

313. Stuck in the Cul-de-Sac: How U.S. Defense Spending Prioritizes Innovation over Deterrence

Author:: Carlton Haelig and Philip Sheers
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: or more than a decade, the United States has sought to modernize its military to deter China, but it has become stuck in a developmental cul-de-sac that has allowed China to steadily shift the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific in its favor. Recent U.S. defense budgets have disproportionately invested in long-term developmental programs at the expense of producing sufficient capabilities available for the near term. As a result, today’s Joint Force is smaller, older, and less capable than at any other time in recent history. Over the past 15 years, the average time and cost the Pentagon has taken to field major weapon systems has grown significantly, and the share of research, development, test, and evaluation (RDTE) spending within the broader defense budget has continued to steadily grow. Despite extended periods of very expensive research and development, major weapon systems have frequently failed to enter production on time or in numbers large enough to make a difference for U.S. warfighters. RDTE cost growth has also affected mature programs, where unexpected modernization challenges have interfered with plans to expand production of available capabilities. Bolstering deterrence involves a challenging balance of time horizons: The Department of Defense (DoD) must expand procurement of today’s capabilities to support near-term deterrence but cannot risk sacrificing next-generation modernization programs that sustain America’s long-term military advantage in doing so. As China’s accelerated conventional military buildup places significant pressure on today’s Joint Force, the urgency to close near-term capability gaps has become critical. Reductions in the Joint Force’s overall size and relative conventional capability have opened a dangerous window of opportunity for China. This report finds that the fiscal year (FY) 2026 budget request and one-time reconciliation funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (BBB) ultimately fail to make the needed investments to strengthen deterrence in both the near and long term. Instead, the current administration appears to be falling into the same mistake as many previous administrations by prioritizing costly development of next-generation systems at the expense of purchasing and fielding capabilities that are available to fill deterrence gaps today. Moreover, by pursuing modernization through reconciliation, the FY 2026 budget risks subjecting future modernization priorities to the political outcomes of nondefense debates. Absent a return to standard defense budgeting processes, modernization programs that received a down payment from the BBB will likely stall or fail entirely. There are some opportunities in future defense budgets to produce greater numbers of existing high-end capabilities that can meaningfully contribute to deterrence in the near term while pursuing critical long-term modernization investments. This report’s analysis highlights five major capability areas where existing or near-ready capabilities, such as ground-based fires or combat aircraft, can be procured in meaningful quantities and contribute to important missions in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, this analysis highlights important areas, such as hypersonic weapons, in which extensive developmental timelines and exorbitant procurement costs likely preclude near-term contributions to deterrence and in the long term will only be fielded in small quantities. Expanding the U.S. military’s capacity and capability in the near term will likely require both larger budgets and the rapid development and production of complementary, less expensive capabilities. The United States faces a generational inflection point in how it approaches its defense investments. Rather than continue the disproportionate focus on next-generation technologies, the White House, Congress, and the DoD must budget a sustained pivot to purchasing existing capabilities that close near-term deterrence gaps. While this pivot must be balanced with continued investments in long-term modernization, the United States can no longer afford to sacrifice near-term procurement imperatives. Breaking out of the developmental cul-de-sac will require future defense budgets to emphasize procurement and accelerated RDTE across major defense programs.
Topic:: Budget, Innovation, Deterrence, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

314. Prepared, Not Paralyzed Managing AI Risks to Drive American Leadership

Author:: Janet Egan, Spencer Michaels, and Caleb Withers
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The Trump administration has embraced a pro-innovation approach to artificial intelligence (AI) policy. Its AI Action Plan, released July 2025, underscores the private sector’s central role in advancing AI breakthroughs and positioning the United States as the world’s leading AI power.1 At the Paris AI Action Summit in February 2025, Vice President JD Vance cautioned that an overly restrictive approach to AI development “would mean paralyzing one of the most promising technologies we have seen in generations.”2 Yet this emphasis on innovation does not diminish the government’s critical role in ensuring national security. On the contrary, AI advances will yield significant threats alongside unprecedented potential in this domain. Experts warn of advanced AI introducing more autonomous cyber weapons, bestowing a broader pool of actors with the know-how to develop biological weapons, and potentially malfunctioning in ways that cause massive damage.3 Private and public sector leaders alike have echoed these concerns.4 The urgent task for policymakers is to ensure that the federal government can anticipate and manage the national security implications of AI with advanced capabilities—without resorting to blunt, ill-targeted, or burdensome regulation that would undermine America’s innovative edge. In other words, the government must prepare at once for potential risks from rapidly advancing AI without imposing onerous regulations that unduly stifle the technology’s vast potential for good. The status quo is insufficient: Technical expertise in advanced AI remains concentrated in a handful of companies, and the government is playing catch-up. Existing voluntary information-sharing commitments between AI labs and the federal government already face hurdles and likely will prove insufficient over time as the costs of providing transparency increase. Meanwhile, the private sector lacks both the national security expertise and the commercial incentives to manage these risks to the national interest. The United States cannot afford policies built solely on speculative fears. Yet in the face of real and rapid progress in national security–relevant capabilities, neither can it risk allowing an AI-driven disaster or a regulatory vacuum to derail technological progress. While much of the policy debate rightly focuses on innovation and accelerating adoption, this report concentrates on a less developed but equally vital counterpart: managing the risks that could undermine those ambitions without stifling AI’s innovative potential. Effective risk management is not a brake on progress but a prerequisite for it, playing an essential role in sustaining public trust, preventing setbacks, shaping global standards, and ensuring that American leadership in AI endures over the long term.
Topic:: Regulation, Leadership, Risk, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

315. Countering the Swarm: Protecting the Joint Force in the Drone Age

Author:: Stacie L. Pettyjohn and Molly Campbell
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: fter decades of air dominance and a near monopoly on precision strike, the United States now faces a dramatically different, more hostile world as the proliferation of cheap drones has democratized mass precision fires. It is likely that in any future conflict, drones will pose an unavoidable threat to American forces. As this report’s analysis of U.S. defense spending reveals, the Department of Defense (DoD) has invested in both legacy and emerging counter–uncrewed aerial systems (C-UAS) capabilities for nearly a decade. However, these efforts have been hindered by insufficient scale and urgency. Despite the Pentagon’s shortfalls in procuring purpose-built C-UAS capabilities, U.S. counter-drone operations in the Middle East have been notable. The United States views China as its foremost strategic threat, and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly advancing its drone capabilities by developing more autonomous systems and acquiring them at scale. Without deep magazines of substantially enhanced counter-drone capabilities, the United States risks having its distributed warfighting strategies overwhelmed by massed Chinese drone attacks, and the United States could lose a war over Taiwan. This is a complex challenge with no silver bullet solution. The DoD must act swiftly. The stakes are not theoretical—without adequate defenses, even the most advanced systems and tactics will be rendered irrelevant in the face of overwhelming drone attacks. Overall Recommendations for the Department of Defense Prioritize counter-drone defense and extend capabilities beyond the air defense community. Drone defense cannot be siloed to dedicated air defense units. Every unit will need the ability to defend itself against small uncrewed aerial systems (UAS). Expand counter-drone training across the Joint Force. The Pentagon needs to develop and share best tactics, techniques, and procedures and ensure that all forces are trained in drone self-protection. Improve the rigor and realism of counter-drone prototype testing. The current test and evaluation process fosters a false sense of confidence in prototype counter-UAS, as they are often assessed using unrealistic facsimiles of enemy drones and low-fidelity tests of electromagnetic weapons.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

316. Atomic Advantage: Accelerating U.S. Quantum Sensing for Next-Generation Positioning, Navigation, and Timing

Author:: Costanza M. Vidal Bustamante
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: O One of the most consequential national security contests now unfolds on battlefields invisible to the naked eye—across the faint radiofrequency signals of the Global Positioning System (GPS) and within the quantum states of individual atoms. At stake are America’s positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) capabilities, the foundation for precise geolocation, trajectory planning, and time synchronization across military, civilian, and commercial domains. For decades, the U.S.-invented GPS has served as the backbone of the world’s PNT, but the system’s inherent vulnerabilities have come into stark relief as adversaries increasingly jam and spoof its weak signals and build weapons to take down its satellites. GPS interference already undermines military operations and disrupts up to thousands of commercial flights daily; broader attacks could trigger catastrophic mission failures and widespread disruption of critical infrastructure, inflicting economic losses exceeding $1 billion a day.1 In the face of rising threats to traditional PNT, quantum sensors offer a compelling alternative. Leveraging the immutable properties of atoms, these devices offer unmatched measurement precision, long-term accuracy, and reliable operation in contested environments—capabilities that can back up and even outperform current GPS-based services. Quantum sensors could enable resilient U.S. PNT within a few years—from the navigation of submarines, drones, and munitions to the synchronization of telecommunications networks, power grids, and financial systems—but only if America continues to develop and deploy the technology. While atomic clocks—the most mature quantum technology today—already power GPS, emerging quantum sensing capabilities are beginning to show their promise as local sources of high-precision, resilient PNT. Next-generation atomic clocks can sustain timing accuracy over longer durations. Quantum accelerometers and gyroscopes can measure a moving platform’s velocity and rotation with greater precision. Quantum gravimeters and magnetometers can reference the Earth’s unique gravitational and magnetic fields for stealthy positioning. All of these technologies offer enhanced performance without relying on vulnerable radiofrequency signals. Although early quantum sensors are beginning the move from lab to field, many prototypes remain too fragile and bulky for widespread deployment. To deliver real operational value, these devices must be hardened so their delicate quantum states can survive harsh environments and continuous use on dynamic platforms. At the same time, developers must further miniaturize and integrate the sensors’ atomic, optical, and control subsystems into compact devices.
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

317. Feature Commentary: An Assessment of Operation Rough Rider

Author:: Gregory Johnsen
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: On March 15, 2025, the United States launched an offensive against the Houthis in Yemen with the stated goal of restoring “freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea and ending Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. Fifty-two days later, on May 5, the United States ended its operations in Yemen following an agreement with the Houthis that the group would no longer target U.S. military vessels or U.S. flagged ships. This article provides an assessment of that campaign, known as Operation Rough Rider, looking at what the United States hit, who was killed, and what it cost as well as how the Houthis have rebounded and regrouped, the current situation on the ground in Yemen, and what is likely to come next.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Houthis, Shipping, Military Operations, and Operation Rough Rider
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

318. The Escalation of U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia and the Role of Perceived Threats to the U.S. Homeland

Author:: David Sterman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In 2025, the United States substantially increased the pace of its airstrikes in Somalia. At the same time, it increasingly cited not just regional security rationales for the increased pace of strikes but also rationales rooted in an assessed potential threat to the U.S. homeland from Somalia—in particular from the Islamic State-Somalia’s recruitment of foreign fighters. This article examines the increased pace of strikes, the rationales that have been cited to explain the increase, and what existing evidence reveals about the potential threat to the U.S. homeland. It also underscores the need for greater clarity from the U.S. government regarding its assessment of the extent of such a threat.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Al Shabaab, Airstrikes, and Military Operations
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, and United States of America

319. Feature Commentary: Confronting Cartels: Military Considerations South of the Border

Author:: Brian Michael Jenkins
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Possible U.S. military action against Mexico’s drug cartels poses unique challenges. The situation is complicated, and the United States must be prepared for possible counteractions. The cartels are not a single actor. If attacked, they may avoid direct confrontation, accepting temporary losses, anticipating that the United States will not sustain a long campaign. Or Mexico’s cartels may respond violently, exploiting U.S. vulnerabilities in Mexico—and possibly north of the border. The government of Mexico is a separate actor. It can assist or undermine U.S. efforts. Past government campaigns against the cartels led to soaring rates of criminal violence. Chaos in Mexico could have serious implications for U.S. homeland security. The United States needs a ‘Red Team’ to examine a range of scenarios. The article proceeds in six parts: Part I contrasts recent U.S. military actions in Yemen and Iran with possible military action in Mexico. Part II examines perceptions of the threat. Part III examines how the history of U.S.-Mexico relations will shape the battlefield. Part IV reviews our own experience in combating foreign drug traffickers, offering some preliminary takeaways. Part V examines possible options. Part VI looks at how the cartels might react, how the United States might be forced to respond—and how other adversaries of the United States might attempt to exploit the situation.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Borders, Organized Crime, Cartels, and Military Operations
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

320. Tehran’s Homeland Option: Terror Pathways for Iran to Strike in the United States

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The 12-day Iran war may be over, but the threat of Iranian reprisal attacks now looms large, and will for the foreseeable future. European authorities exposed plots in Sweden and Germany even as the war was being waged, and Israeli authorities issued a warning over potential attacks in the United Arab Emirates a couple of weeks later, specifically citing heightened concerns in the wake of the war with Iran. Iranian operatives or their agents could also attempt to carry out attacks inside the United States, leveraging what U.S. counterterrorism officials have describe as a “homeland option” developed over years. Given the U.S. role in bombing the Fordow nuclear complex, it should not be a surprise that U.S. authorities quickly issued a terrorism advisory warning of potential Iranian plots in the homeland. Drawing on past cases of Iranian plots in the United States and elsewhere, this article explores the primary pathways available to Iran conduct or enable a terrorism act in the United States. These include deploying Iranian agents, criminal surrogates, terrorist proxies, or actively seeking to inspire lone offenders to carry out attacks within the homeland.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Armed Conflict, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

321. The Changing Character of Terrorism and U.S. Counterterrorism

Author:: Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, Brian Dodwell, and Ned Curry
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The competition between terror movements and counterterrorism forces is an interactive and iterative game, as the actions taken by one side are designed to defeat, circumvent, or shape the activity taken by the opposing players. To better understand these interactive dynamics, it is important to evaluate how terrorism and counterterrorism have been evolving. This article first takes high-level stock of how the spread, structure, scale, and speed of terrorism have been changing in recent years and highlights key challenges and implications for counterterrorism. It then evaluates the United States’ ongoing effort to find a sustainable counterterrorism path, a journey that has been filled with challenges, benefits, dilemmas, and opportunities, and discusses how key factors have been shaping the direction, reach, and pace of change. An important takeaway from these reviews is that while the threat of international terrorism is not what it used to be, there is a lot of change occurring across the terrorism landscape. U.S. counterterrorism has also been undergoing some important shifts, and there are open questions about whether U.S. CT forces and assets will be spread further. If not managed carefully, change taking place across these two ‘systems’ could interact in ways that may disrupt CT progress.
Topic:: National Security, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

322. Armenia and Azerbaijan: Peace or Pause?

Author:: Marina Ohanjanyan
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: At the White House in Washington, on August 8th, Armenia and Azerbaijan initialled a peace deal and signed an agreement on the establishment of the Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP): a transport link connecting Azerbaijan-proper with its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, which had been a contentious issue in the peace negotiations. While the imagery and potential positive consequences of this should not be underestimated, much is still unclear about what the agreements actually mean, including certain formulations and their interpretation as well as the question of how long the US commitment to the region will last. At the same time, the Washington summit represents an opening and a positive momentum for further development of not only the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, but larger connectivity in South-Caucasus, and several capitals will have been watching the proceedings keenly. This paper first briefly discusses the agreements reached and some of the remaining questions surrounding them, and then analyses the attitudes and/or reactions of the US, Russia, Iran, Türkiye and the EU, which in some cases, will be crucial to the success or failure of the initiative.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and United States of America

323. The Biden Administration’s New Industrial Policy: Domestic and International Implications

Author:: Barbara Regulska-Ingielewicz
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article aims to analyze new industrial policy based on the example of actions taken by the Joe Biden administration. Their essence is transforming the economy in line with climate goals while stimulating development. The paper will present the main assumptions of the United States’ green industrial policy, its goals, and international implications, which indicate that it is characterized by economic nationalism. The article attempts to answer three main research questions: What is the essence of the new industrial policy? What are the goals of the new industrial policy initiated by the Joe Biden administration? What are the expected international implications of this policy? Answers to the above questions will enable verification of the hypothesis, which states that the Joe Biden administration has initiated a new industrial policy in the spirit of state interventionism based on new environmental protection assumptions. Its goal is to give the U.S. economy new pro-development impulses and increase its competitiveness. The first part of the paper will present assumptions of the new industrial policy, then the goals and measures of the new United States industrial policy, and the third part will show the international implications of the above policy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Economic Growth, Joe Biden, Green Transition, Green Economy, and Economic Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

324. Could the War Have Been Prevented? US Lessons from Russia’s War against Ukraine

Author:: Andrzej Demczuk
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The main goal of this article is to analyze American leadership in the context of Russia’s War in Ukraine. Examining the role of the US is important because the results of the study might identify some US strategic and policy weaknesses, which, if applied, might prevent other wars from happening. The main research question has been formulated: Could the Russian War in Ukraine have been prevented? The author’s work is based mainly on the analysis of the interviews with policymakers from the first circle of people in power, mostly the presidents’ advisers who have been particularly involved in implementing American foreign policy towards Russia and Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, as well as Ukrainian officials and those participating in the US-led coalition. US lessons from Russia’s War in Ukraine are of particular significance today, when the world faces a possible confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region between China and Taiwan, as well as the spread of the Middle East turmoil.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Security, Leadership, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

325. The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety

Author:: Thierry Mayer, Isabelle Mejean, and Mathias Thoenig
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: We develop a model of international trade and geopolitical disputes, embedding a diplomatic game of escalation to conflict within a quantitative model of trade. Bilateral disputes arise exogenously, and rival countries engage in negotiations to avoid war. In equilibrium, negotiations may fail, resulting in conflict. All welfare-relevant geoeconomic factors, such as the realized costs of war, the concessions to prevent it, and the probability of escalation, depend on the opportunity cost of war, itself shaped by observed trade flows. We provide a simple procedure to estimate these factors in a model of trade calibrated to current data. This approach is then used to quantify the geoeconomic factors characterizing the US-China relationship, both historically and under various ``decoupling'' scenarios. We find that the growing US dependence to Chinese products and markets over the past thirty years has increased the cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the US. In this context, decoupling from China through increased tariffs may offer geopolitical benefits. Yet, the analysis highlights a fundamental security dilemma: because export and import dependencies influence bargaining power in negotiations, decoupling may reduce the diplomatic concessions needed to maintain peace but can paradoxically raise the risk of escalation by weakening incentives for restraint.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, Economy, Risk, Fragmentation, Geoeconomics, and Decoupling
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

326. Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel

Author:: Pablo Aguilar-Perez
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper examines the global spillovers of US monetary policy through the remittance channel, in both sending and recipient countries. Using a dataset covering 8 remittance-sending and 41 recipient countries from January 1997 to December 2017, we apply a local projections framework to trace the dynamic effects of unexpected US monetary tightening. We find that remittance outflows decline in advanced economies following policy shocks, illustrating the pro-cyclicality of remittances in source countries and their role in amplifying global financial spillovers. Among recipient countries, our results show that in countries with low to moderate remittance dependence, inflows tend to increase following a contractionary shock – consistent with altruistic or insurance-driven motives. In contrast, remittances decline in highly dependent countries, aligning with self-interest or investment-driven behavior. We find that these heterogeneous responses are shaped by migrant profiles: countries with high remittance dependence typically have a larger share of low-skilled migrants and display more strongly pro-cyclical remittance patterns. In contrast, less dependent countries tend to have more skilled or diversified diasporas, resulting in more stable and less cyclical remittance flows.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Economy, and Remittances
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

327. The State(s) of Foreign Information Operations

Author:: Krystyna Sikora and Bret Schafer
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: It is easy to dismiss foreign information operations as playing out at the national level, designed to influence federal policymakers and Beltway insiders. But these threats transcend the “Beltway Bubble”. Increasingly, foreign nation-state actors are running operations that exploit trust in local sources and impact state and local communities. US adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran are refining their information tools and tactics to better target individuals and exacerbate divisions within the United States to destabilize the country at home and weaken it on the world stage. These nation states are increasingly exploiting domestic actors to launder and manipulate content that originates in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran and ultimately reaches American audiences who have no way of knowing they are on the receiving end of foreign information operations. They are also experimenting with generative artificial intelligence (AI), which, according to the US intelligence community, has allowed nation-state actors to “improve and accelerate” their operations, potentially enabling them to reach more Americans with more targeted content. Adversaries understand that state and local governments and communities are foundational to the strength of American democracy, so it is no surprise that they have targeted individuals and issues at the local level. In some cases, adversarial nations seek favorable outcomes around local policy issues; in others, they use local debates as Trojan horses to advance their broader geopolitical agendas. In others still, they attempt to influence views on the integrity of US elections and institutions or disenfranchise American citizens in specific communities to destabilize and erode trust in American democracy. But in all cases, American democratic discourse and the country’s information space—messy as they can sometimes be—are being used as primary vectors to advance foreign interests. If Americans lack that understanding, their communities—and the country—are left vulnerable. This report outlines an example of a foreign information operation targeting each of the 50 US states and the District of Columbia. Each case study indicates the foreign threat actor (if known) and explains the tools, tactics, and motivations for targeting Americans at the state and local level.
Topic:: Security, Threat Assessment, Foreign Influence, and Information Manipulation
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

328. The US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal

Author:: Penny Naas, Georgina Wright, Eamon Drumm, and Antonia Wunnerlich
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Eighty years to the day after Germany’s surrender in World War II, two of the victorious allies in that conflict unveiled a new economic partnership, the US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD). It is the first bilateral agreement of its kind concluded by the Trump administration since its new tariff policy was introduced in early April. Leaders have described the EPD as a “trade deal”, but it functions more as a framework for future action. It includes tariff concessions on selected goods, grants greater access to the British market for certain American agricultural products, and outlines areas for future negotiation, including in digital regulation, export controls, and, potentially, investment screening. A separate technology-focused agreement is also planned for both countries to find ways to collaborate on biotech, life sciences, quantum computing, nuclear fusion, aerospace, and space technologies. In substance, the EPD freezes tariffs at 10% for most goods while buying time for technical-level discussions and laying the groundwork for deeper alignment. For the United Kingdom, 30% of whose exports go to its largest export market, the United States, the deal is an important diplomatic win. It is for the United States, too, whose ninth-largest trading partner is the United Kingdom. In 2024, the United States imported $68.1 billion in goods from Britain and exported $79.9 billion to the country. For countries eyeing negotiations with Washington, the EPD underscores that US trade talks are increasingly shaped by national and economic security considerations, not just trade balances. The agreement links future tariff relief to shared approaches on US strategic issues such as digital policy and alignment on export controls, including to China. As Peter Mandelson, British ambassador in Washington, put it, the EPD is the "end of the beginning". Much will now depend on the outcomes of technical-level discussions, which could have direct repercussions on London’s reset talks with the EU.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and United States of America

329. Europe Between the United States and China

Author:: Gesine Weber
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Competition between the United States and China directly affects other players in the international system, and Europe is no exception. Since the United States is historically Europe’s closest ally, and the Indo-Pacific is becoming increasingly important to European strategy, the trajectory of the US-China relationship significantly impacts European security. However, what has changed under the second administration of US President Donald Trump is the volatility of the competition: Differing views and approaches within the US administration and uncertainty about Washington’s approach to China make it particularly challenging for Europe to carve out room to maneuver as a security actor.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Innovation, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

330. Unsolicited Thoughts on How the New Administration Can Improve American Diplomacy

Author:: Raymond F. Smith
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: A country’s political leadership establishes its foreign policy goals, and its diplomatic service works to achieve them. Ideally, a country’s fundamental foreign policy goals should be so clear and compelling that they transcend specific administrations and provide enduring guidelines for carrying out the work of diplomacy. Previous post-Cold War administrations have made half-hearted, but ultimately unsuccessful efforts to do this. The new administration may want to consider these three strategic objectives: 1) create a more stable international system; 2) avoid an alliance between China and Russia; 3) decrease the likelihood of a nuclear war. These objectives are clear, compelling, and enduring. The benefits of any system adhere disproportionately to those at the top of the system. Since we are at the top of the current international system, no one has a greater interest in its stability than we do. An alliance between the other nuclear superpower and the other economic superpower would represent a clear and present danger to our preeminence. And in all likelihood, we’d all be dead after a major nuclear war. A diplomacy aimed at achieving these objectives should include: 1) prioritizing US interests; 2) talking less and listening more; and 3) leading by example.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and International System
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

331. Biden’s Troubled Foreign Policy Legacy

Author:: P. Michael McKinley
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In the waning days of the Biden administration, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security adviser Jake Sullivan highlighted the foreign policy achievements of the previous four years including marshaling support for Ukraine, preventing a wider war in the Middle East, and galvanizing Indo-Pacific ties. The outgoing president himself gave a spirited defense of his accomplishments just days before he left office. As a reelected President Trump takes over, however, it seems fair to ask just how sustainable the efforts to “reenergize alliances and partnerships” and America’s global leadership actually were. And in at least one crucial respect, the Biden administration’s “Foreign Policy for the Middle Class” turned out to be more continuity than a break with President Trump’s “America First:” a protectionist national economic security doctrine now appears to be a centerpiece of American foreign policy. The swan song of a certain kind of American internationalism seems at hand, as the incoming administration signals policies which, reflecting the national mood, will prioritize a more unilateralist approach to the outside world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Leadership, International Order, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

332. How to Fix the Peace Corps

Author:: Thomas Brodey
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: With its small budget and secluded work, the United States Peace Corps is one of the least conspicuous arms of US foreign policy. Yet the agency, originally founded in 1961 as a way for Americans to work on community development abroad, still exerts a major influence. In many developing countries, such as Madagascar, where I served, volunteers are most people’s only exposure to American diplomacy. And for those volunteers who complete service, the Peace Corps is a proven path into the Foreign Service and foreign policy establishment. Despite its apparent stability, however, the Peace Corps is currently facing two of its largest challenges in decades, one acute and one long-term.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Peace Corps
Political Geography:: North America, Madagascar, and United States of America

333. Bohlen’s Dictum: First, Be There

Author:: Thomas E. McNamara
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: On my first foreign service posting in Paris, my boss, Ambassador Charles Bohlen, said that the diplomatic service required many skills, but the most important one was “being there when something happens.” Later, working on Vietnam in the embassy’s political section, I learned that Bohlen’s Dictum was true.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, and Memoir
Political Geography:: France, Vietnam, and United States of America

334. Aftershocks from Gaza: From Local to Global Consequences (Part 1)

Author:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Working Group
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The grotesque attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza have upended long-standing assumptions about regional order. The Middle East’s previous reliance on a US-led security framework has given way to a fragmented, multi-aligned landscape in which middle powers pursue their interests, while the Palestinian issue—long marginalized—has returned to the center of regional and global diplomacy. Israel has secured tactical military gains but at the cost of increasing diplomatic isolation, while conditions in Gaza have fueled global demands for a sustainable political solution. Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria face profound setbacks, while Turkey and the Arab Gulf states seek to expand influence without the means to dominate. China and Russia remain cautious players, unwilling or unable to shape the conflict’s outcome. For the United States, the Gaza war poses a strategic dilemma. Despite efforts to broker ceasefires and secure hostages, Washington has been unable—or unwilling—to exert decisive leverage on Israel. The Biden and Trump administrations alike have struggled to articulate a coherent, sustainable strategy that balances US interests in security, energy, stability, and credibility. The ISD Gaza Report is organized in two parts: Part I: A ground assessment of the regional shifts since October 7, with particular focus on Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as the reemergence of Palestine as the central unresolved question in Middle East politics, and the role of regional states. Part II: A deeper analysis of Iran’s position and prospects, scenarios for regional order, and US policy options, culminating in concrete recommendations for advancing stability while protecting US strategic interests. Participants underscored that any durable path forward begins and ends with Palestine and the Palestinians. US policymakers must adapt to a regional order defined not by hegemonic control but by contested pluralism and assertive middle powers. Strategic clarity, consistent diplomacy, and credible leverage are essential if Washington hopes to pursue its interests amid the aftershocks from Gaza—and not merely react to them.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, Palestinians, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

335. Mission Critical: Securing America’s Critical Minerals

Author:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Working Group
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The United States and its allies and partners face a two-pronged crisis. Increases in global temperatures call for the rapid expansion of critical mineral infrastructure—to include mines and refinement—if we hope to deploy the technology needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Meanwhile, the United States’ primary geopolitical adversary has obtained a near-monopoly position in the supply of most of these minerals. Heavy use of certain minerals in our defense-industrial base further underscores the need to reduce reliance on People’s Republic of China (PRC) supplies. Both our climate and our national security demand concerted efforts to wean us away from fossil fuels and the PRC’s market power. In the spring of 2024, the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy (ISD) convened a New Global Commons working group over two meetings titled “Mission Critical: Securing America’s Critical Minerals.” Working group participants represented academia, think tanks, government, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector, bringing a broad range of experience and global perspectives to the discussions. Participants discussed definitions of critical minerals and the need for a successful green energy transition to support digital technology and fulfill 21st-century defense needs. Participants weighed the complexity of overlapping issues and how the United States and its partners might best effectively coordinate and balance these issues.
Topic:: National Security, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Mining, Energy, Green Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

336. What You Can Learn Standing on a Street Corner

Author:: Raymond F. Smith
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: I arrived in Moscow in late August 1988 to begin a three-year assignment heading the US embassy’s political section. I had learned during my pre-departure consultations in Washington that there were still diametrically opposing views among policy-makers and within the intelligence community about whether the reform program that Mikhail Gorbachev had begun was meaningful. The negative view held that the reforms were intended merely to make the Soviet system operate more efficiently and that, if successful, the US would be faced with an equally hostile, but even more dangerous adversary. One of my key objectives was for the embassy’s political reporting to have meaningful impact on this debate.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Reform, Memoir, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

337. “European Army”: A Thought Experiment

Author:: Lutz Unterseher
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: In nine concise pages, German military analyst Lutz Unterseher provides the strategic orientation, operational modalities, force allocations, institutional framework, overall personnel requirements for active duty and reserves, command organization, and armament composition of an integrated European Union armed force. He then provides a budget for the component parts. The total annual cost is €170 billion, 1% of EU nations’ GDP. Unterseher concludes: It is hardly accidental that the European Union was chosen as the political framework for this force model. Above all, that is because, given Trump-era U.S. policy, NATO in its Atlantic-partnership sense no longer exists. Whether a self-confident “Euro-NATO” can emerge under American pressure and attempts to sow division remains highly questionable. It does, however, seem wise to “carry over” NATO’s infrastructure and communication networks into the authentically European armed forces wherever possible.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

338. Iran: A Report on the DACOR Bacon Foundation’s 2025 Annual Conference

Author:: Keith McCormick
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The DACOR Bacon House Foundation’s 2025 Annual Conference, held on September 12, focused on Iran. The conference brought together academics, former diplomats, and policy activists to analyze the new situation facing Iran in the Middle East after a string of military setbacks, and the prospects for diplomacy with the United States. A list of participants is appended to this article.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Demographics, Diplomacy, Environment, Human Rights, Sanctions, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

339. History Matters

Author:: Robert Hunter
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: History matters. So does ignoring it. These truisms play a major role in the mess that US foreign policy is in now. Americans’ playing down of history and related critical analysis began late in the Cold War. Indeed, by then, basic strategic thinking that was needed to manage the balance of terror with the Soviet Union had long since been done.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Diplomacy, History, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

340. Statecraft 2.0: What America Needs to Lead in a Multipolar World

Author:: Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a world that is multipolar and America has less relative power, the United States no longer has the luxury to practice statecraft badly. The United States may still be the world's strongest country, but it now faces real challenges at both a global and regional level. The unipolar world which was dominated by America after the Cold War is gone. Unlike the Soviet Union, China is both a military and economic competitor and it is actively challenging the norms and institutions that the US used to shape an international order during and after the Cold War. Directly and indirectly, it has partners trying to undo the American-dominated order, with Russia seeking to extinguish Ukraine, and Iran trying to undermine American presence, influence, and any set of rules for the Middle East that it does not dominate. The failures of American policy in Afghanistan and Iraq have weakened the domestic consensus for a US leadership role internationally. Traditions in US foreign policy, especially the American sense of exceptionalism, have at different points justified both withdrawal and international activism. Iraq and Afghanistan fed the instinct to withdraw and to end the "forever wars." But the folly of these US interventions did not necessarily mean that all use of force to back diplomacy or specific political ends was wrong; rather it meant in these cases, the Bush Administration failed in the most basic task of good statecraft: namely, marrying objectives and means. Nothing more clearly defines effective statecraft than identifying well-considered goals and then knowing how to use all the tools of statecraft--diplomatic, economic, military, intelligence, information, cyber, scientific, education--to achieve them. But all too often American presidents have adopted goals that were poorly defined and not thought through. In Statecraft 2.0, a significant update of the first edition, Dennis Ross explains why failing to marry objectives and means has happened so often in American foreign policy. He uses historical examples to illustrate the factors that account for this, including political pressures, weak understanding of the countries where the US has intervened, changing objectives before achieving those that have been established, relying too much on ourselves and too little on allies and partners. To be fair, there have not only been failures, there have been successes as well. Ross uses case studies to look more closely at the circumstances in which Administrations have succeeded and failed in marrying objectives and means. He distills the lessons from good cases of statecraft--German unification in NATO, the first Gulf War, the surge in Iraq 2007-8 - and bad cases of statecraft - going to war in Iraq 2003, and the Obama policy toward Syria. Based on those lessons, he develops a framework for applying today a statecraft approach to our policy toward China, Iran, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The book concludes with how a smart statecraft approach would shape policy toward the new national security challenges of climate, pandemics, and cyber.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Multipolarity, Strategic Interests, and Statecraft
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

341. Building on Momentum in U.S.-Turkey Relations

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The two leaders can use their personal rapport to solve bilateral and regional problems, but they will also face tough challenges in matters such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and dealings with China. In the second in a series of TRANSITION 2025 memos, Soner Cagaptay explores areas for U.S. partnership with Turkey in the Middle East and beyond. After a decade of malaise, relations between the two countries have lately recovered thanks to Turkish support for Sweden’s accession to NATO, granted in return for permission to buy U.S. F-16 fighter jets. The personal magnetism between President Trump and his counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could smooth the way for further cooperation in military and economic areas, and also potentially help the new U.S. administration in Ukraine and Syria. But complex challenges remain, relating not only to the Syrian conflict—where Ankara and Washington backed different actors—but also to dealings with China and affinities in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. MIDDLE EAST POLICY TRANSITION 2025 by Washington Institute experts address challenges and opportunities for the Trump-Vance administration during a period of extraordinary change in the Middle East. A primary challenge will be countering Iran’s march toward the bomb. Also critical will be determining a sustainable U.S. force posture in the region and updating America’s counterterrorism mission. Opportunities, meanwhile, are suddenly ample after blows to the “axis of resistance” and include the imperative to forge a better relationship with Turkey, which is set to be an influential player in post-Assad Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

342. Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 2): Implications for Turkish and U.S. Policy

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: If Ankara seals the deal and preempts potential spoilers, the results could prove historic for Turkish politics, Erdogan’s legacy, joint counterterrorism efforts, and wider U.S. regional interests. nkara’s new dialogue with the PKK was born from nearly a decade of meticulous counterterrorism work, carried out by the country’s security forces and National Intelligence Organization and based on a political plan formulated by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who served as intelligence chief until 2023. The steps involved in this strategy have since become clear: (1) double down on pressuring and weakening the PKK via drone strikes and other effective tools, (2) bring the group back to the negotiating table from a position of weakness, and (3) negotiate the group’s breakup via Kurdish political intermediaries, as described in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch. The first phase of the plan achieved major successes against PKK militants in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, while phases two and three are seemingly being checked off as well amid reports that Abdullah Ocalan may soon ask his group to lay down their arms. To close the deal, end the PKK threat once and for all, and score a domestic political prize in the process, Fidan, Erdogan, and Turkey’s national security elites have been actively engaging Kurdish actors at home and abroad, whether to increase pressure on the group or offer incentives for disbanding.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Negotiation, Kurds, PKK, Dialogue, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America

343. Navigating the Syria Sanctions Conundrum

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Washington should act quickly to facilitate transactions for key sectors such as electricity, food, and rubble removal, lest public discontent lead to widespread protests and possibly government collapse. America’s sanctions policy for Syria is broken, but the answer is not to pretend existing licenses and waivers are working or to summarily terminate all sanctions. Instead, Washington should quickly take steps to allow financial transactions for key sectors such as electricity, food, and rubble removal, and begin to assess the conditions under which sanctions could be rolled back more broadly. The Syrian people are desperate, and within weeks, they could take to the streets to protest the country’s dire conditions, possibly leading to collapse for the interim government, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa. This would be in no one’s interest, including America’s, in large part because it could allow Iran and the Islamic State to reassert themselves in Syria and across the region. In this Policy Note, former Treasury official Matthew Levitt explains how the United States can facilitate urgently needed investment in Syria by extending sanctions waivers, opening up a banking channel, and considering steps like delisting Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a foreign terrorist organization.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

344. Saudi Public Opinion in a Changing Middle East: Great Powers, the Gaza War, Pathways for the Kingdom

Author:: Catherine Cleveland
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: China and Russia get higher marks than the United States, and Israel normalization is on hold—but respondents view Hamas negatively, want Arab involvement in the peace process, and increasingly support moderate interpretations of Islam. Recent polling in Saudi Arabia offers reasons for concern as well as optimism regarding U.S. interests. On the downside, Saudi respondents are more likely to prioritize good relations with China or Russia as opposed to America, despite a history of U.S.-Saudi strategic ties. Likewise, enthusiasm for Israel-Saudi normalization has fallen from already-low levels amid the Gaza war, although support is slightly higher for business links. More encouragingly, respondents express negative views about Hamas, growing support for an Arab role in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, and increasing sympathy for moderate interpretations of Islam, mirroring the trajectory of Riyadh’s official rhetoric. In this Policy Note, polling expert Catherine Cleveland offers thought-provoking analysis of surveys taken shortly before Israel’s twelve-day war with Iran. U.S. policymakers can chart a productive course, she explains, by first taking an honest look at Saudi public skepticism of bilateral ties and then promoting initiatives more likely to earn support.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Normalization, Hamas, Regional Politics, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Palestine, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

345. Strategic U.S. Engagement with Algeria: A Pathway amid Shifting Global Dynamics

Author:: Sabina Henneberg
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Washington should help Algiers embrace greater openness, both to promote stability in North Africa and to advance U.S. interests like counterterrorism and economic competition with China. Since gaining independence in 1962, Algeria has earned a reputation as a relatively closed country, with policies guided by self-sufficiency, noninterference, and nonalignment. Yet it has also long sought to demonstrate relevance on the world stage, such as after 9/11, when it served as a regional partner in the U.S.-led war on terror. Today, Algeria faces challenges including a migrant crisis that has strained the social fabric and the Western Sahara conflict next door—which is not on the leadership’s preferred trajectory. Washington has an interest in helping Algiers navigate these challenges and embrace greater openness, both to promote stability in North Africa and to advance U.S. interests like counterterrorism and economic competition with China. In this Policy Note, North Africa expert Sabina Henneberg focuses on trends in Algeria since the 2011 Arab uprisings as a means of understanding where the country might go from here. Effective U.S. engagement will require patience, she counsels, but could offer benefits that include expanded corporate opportunities in this large, relatively wealthy country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Economic Competition, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Algeria, North Africa, North America, and United States of America

346. Here’s How State Department Cuts Would Impede U.S. Policy in the Middle East

Author:: Ben Fishman and Elizabeth Surman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s budget cuts, intended to make America “safer, stronger, and more prosperous,” could wind up harming U.S. interests in the region while strengthening Russian and Chinese media warfare. At a time when the Middle East needs additional help managing the fallout from the war with Iran, the extreme State Department budget cuts initiated by the Trump administration are especially ill-timed. By cutting funds to partners who combat Iran’s most dangerous regional proxies, the administration risks enabling a faster rehabilitation of Tehran’s “axis of resistance.” Other cuts would limit Washington’s ability to provide lifesaving humanitarian assistance to Yemen, constrain efforts to reach the Iranian people, and cede ground to China and Russia in the information wars—one of the many negative repercussions of eliminating a vital network like Voice of America (VOA). The Senate has until July 18 to object to these cuts because the administration submitted its budget by means of a rescission bill, a rarely used procedure that gives Congress a limited period to respond to the administration’s proposal before it takes effect.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, State Department, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Middle East, and United States of America

347. Funding in the Shadow of Conflict: AIPAC’s Financial Influence on US Congress Post-2023 Israel-Hamas War

Author:: Ömer Naim Küçük
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has been a key player in mobilizing support for Israel’s foreign policy within the US Congress, especially during regional conflicts. While studies have examined the influence of the pro-Israeli lobbies’ donations on US policymakers, the strategic allocation of these funds remains less explored. This study addresses that gap by analyzing factors that influenced variations in AIPAC donations to US Congress members following the 2023 Israel-Hamas war. The findings reveal two main determinants: Congress members' sponsorship of pro-Israel bills and the electoral competition in their constituencies. Those actively supporting pro-Israel legislation receive more financial contributions, indicating a link between legislative support and financial incentives. Additionally, members facing strong electoral competition attract more donations, suggesting AIPAC’s targeted investment in politically secure candidates. This research highlights how the Israeli lobby strategically uses financial contributions to shape US foreign policy, particularly in the context of Israel's military engagements.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Lobbying, Congress, Foreign Influence, 2023 Gaza War, and AIPAC
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

348. Electoral Dynamics in post-2003 Iraq: Systemic Reforms, Security Challenges, and External Influence

Author:: Fatih Oğuzhan İpek
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq’s political trajectory has been shaped by systemic reforms, security challenges, and external interventions. Parliamentary elections serve as a key measure of Iraq’s democratic governance, revealing persistent issues such as electoral system debates, pre-election violence, political fragmentation, and foreign influence from actors like the US and Iran. Low voter turnout, weak election security, and recurring allegations of fraud have further eroded public trust. The protracted government formation process, driven by sectarian divisions and external meddling, has reinforced political instability. This study examines these patterns by using the process tracing method to provide a comprehensive understanding of Iraq’s electoral landscape and its broader implications for governance. The election process is divided into three timelines and analyzed before, during, and after the elections. Drawing on news and reports on Iraq as well as speeches by Iraqi figures, the study argues that seven patterns embedded in systemic reforms, security challenges, and external interventions have overwhelmed Iraq’s electoral processes and democratic governance since 2003.
Topic:: Security, Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, Parliament, and Ali al-Sistani
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

349. Securing the Future: The US-Maldives Defense Partnership and Regional Stability

Author:: Matthew House
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The defense relationship between the United States and the Maldives has evolved significantly over the years, culminating in a robust partnership characterized by mutual interests and shared security concerns. This article examines the historical context of this partnership, the bolstering of relations of the current decade, and the future outlook for this critical defense relationship.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Partnerships, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: North America, Maldives, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

350. Debating American Primacy in the Middle East

Author:: Marc Lynch, Richard K. Hermann, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Dana El Kurd, and Elham Fakhro
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: In September 2024, POMEPS and the Mershon Center for International Studies at the Ohio State University convened a workshop with regional experts and international relations theorists to debate the nature of American primacy in the Middle East. The papers in this collection range widely over theoretical approaches and empirical examples to bring out the assumptions and implications of different perspectives. The discussions were shaped by the shadow of Israel’s war on Gaza, in all of its moral and strategic dimensions, with sharp disagreements over the extent to which this represented a fundamental break with or continuity with prior trajectories. We are delighted to present POMEPS Studies 54: Debating American Primacy in the Middle East and hope that it helps to reframe and sharpen the critical ongoing debates about US foreign policy, global order, and the Middle East.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, Development, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, Liberalism, Engagement, Unipolarity, Multipolarity, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

351. Regional Order Making after October 7

Author:: Raffaella A. Del Sarto, Marc Lynch, Simon Mabon, Waleed Hazbun, and Curtis R. Ryan
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: In December 2024, we convened a workshop at the Robert Schuman Center of the European University Institute in partnership with POMEPS and SEPAD to discuss regional changes and their meaning for our book. How did the October 7 attacks, the Gaza war, and Israel’s rapidly expanding military actions from Lebanon to Iran change the region? Were those changes in line with the book’s theoretical predictions? And what would our book have to say to the new aspirants hoping to remake regional order?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Alliance, Violence, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Lebanon, and United States of America

352. Militias Assist PRC-Based Ventures Mining Rare Earth Elements in Myanmar

Author:: Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: People’s Republic of China (PRC)-based firms are expanding rare-earth mining in Myanmar’s Shan and Kachin States by partnering with militias that lease mines, provide security, and tax exports. Satellite imagery shows a rapid increase in rare earth elements (REE) sites since 2015, turning militia-held enclaves into major suppliers of dysprosium, terbium, and other critical minerals for the PRC. As U.S.–PRC competition intensifies, Myanmar’s fragmented sovereignty enables armed groups with ties to Beijing to shape REE supply chains, complicating potential U.S. and Indian efforts to source Burmese minerals.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Natural Resources, Strategic Competition, Militias, Supply Chains, and Rare earth elements (REEs)
Political Geography:: China, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and United States of America

353. Defense and Security Cooperation as a Pillar of Engagement: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific

Author:: Tu Lai
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The elevation of Vietnam–US relations in September 2023 to a comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP), the highest tier in Vietnam’s current diplomatic hierarchy, not only reflects Hanoi’s ongoing efforts to diversify its international relations but also underscores the strategic weight assigned to its ties with Washington. The CSP would have been improbable without sustained progress in defense and security cooperation, which has served both as a catalyst for mutual trust and as a practical mechanism for advancing more substantive, effective collaboration.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Collaboration, Regional Security, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: South Asia, Vietnam, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

354. How Trump’s Foreign Policy May Hurt US Interests in Southeast Asia

Author:: Aristyo Rizka Darmawan
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s neglect of Southeast Asia, coupled with controversial foreign policy decisions like his Gaza proposal and the abolishment of USAID, is eroding US credibility and trust in the region. As ASEAN states seek alternative partnerships with middle powers and China capitalises on Washington’s missteps, America risks losing its strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, USAID, ASEAN, Strategic Interests, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:: China, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

355. Australia Needs Strategic Reconfiguration in the Asia Pacific

Author:: Arpit Raswant and Jiye Kim
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:: Facing mounting pressure from US tariffs and global trade volatility, Australia must urgently realign its economic strategy. Deepening ties with key Asian partners and investing in emerging sectors like space technology could safeguard national prosperity and regional influence.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Tariffs, Trade, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

356. “Do Not Come”: The US Root Causes Strategy and the Co-optation of the Right to Stay

Author:: Jesús M. de la Torre, Brenda Peralta, and Karla Rivas
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: In 2021, the United States unveiled the Strategy for Addressing the Root Causes of Migration in Central America (“Root Causes Strategy” or “the Strategy”) to improve living conditions in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala as a means to prevent future migration to the US-Mexico border. Through a combination of foreign policy tools and public-private investment, the US administration focused on enhancing economic, security, and governance conditions in the region. Although the Root Causes Strategy has received scrutiny in light of broader research on policies to address the root causes of migration, more attention is needed from the perspective of communities that these strategies target. Therefore, this article assesses the Root Causes Strategy’s alignment with Northern Central American communities’ plans to ensure their right to stay and thrive. It explores three areas of inquiry: the Strategy’s provision of formal engagement and participation mechanisms for local communities; the Strategy’s alignment with local communities’ priorities to ensure their right to stay; and the Strategy’s respect for local communities’ right to migrate in relation to their right to stay according to local projects of thriving. Through critical policy analysis, relying on primary governmental sources and secondary sources on the lived experience of communities in the region, the article argues that the Root Causes Strategy co-opted communities’ right to stay for three reasons. First, Northern Central American communities’ notions of their right to stay were sidelined. Communities did not have a formal role in the design and implementation of the Strategy, which lacked transparency and accountability mechanisms. Second, the Root Causes Strategy did not align its tools with communities’ notions of thriving. Private investments lacked sufficient labor, environmental and human rights protection, and oversight mechanisms to ensure they would not result in more displacement. Funding structures and processes failed to significantly expand access by local communities in support of grass-roots community projects. The US targeted sanctions for human rights violations and corruption followed communities’ cues in some countries and occasions while neglecting them in others. Third, the United States used its root causes policy to justify a restricted notion of the right to migrate. The US administration utilized its root causes policy and the widening of some insufficient legal migration pathways to justify and advance US border externalization policies and limit access to asylum at the US-Mexico border. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for the US administration, the US Congress, and civil society in Central America, Mexico, and the United States. It recommends delinking root causes of migration strategies from the goal of reducing migration to the donor country and foregrounding communities’ participation and perspectives before, during, and after the implementation of root causes policies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Investment, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, and United States of America

357. The Gendered Impact of In-State Tuition Policies on Undocumented Immigrants’ College Enrollment, Graduation, and Employment

Author:: Susan Averett, Cynthia Bansak, Grace Condon, and Eva Dziadula
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Assessing the impact of policies offering in-state tuition and financial aid to undocumented immigrant youth is highly pertinent from a policy perspective. Eligible immigrants arrived as children and the United States is often the only home they have ever known. Without the right to stay or a path to citizenship, they cannot achieve their full potential as productive members of society. Policies improving access to higher education have the potential to elevate their social mobility and amplify economic contributions by improving job prospects and bolstering tax revenues. Since 2001, roughly half of the U.S. states have expanded in-state college tuition benefits to undocumented immigrants. Around one-third of states have also provided financial aid; yet approximately one-tenth have imposed heightened barriers to accessing higher education. While early studies found an increase in enrollment in states with in-state tuition policies, recent studies accounting for additional state policies found no impact on enrollment. These results mask varying impacts based on gender and marital status. We assess these policies, control for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), and analyze the impact of in-state tuition on college enrollment, graduation rates, employment, and self-employment. Our analysis relies on data from the 2005 to 2019 American Community Survey. To identify individuals who are the most likely to be undocumented and affected by the policy, we focus on noncitizen Hispanic youth, excluding those likely authorized (e.g., licensed professionals, veterans, and refugees). That said, we are assuming that state policies are the same for all undocumented residents, not just the Hispanics in our sample. Our findings are as follows:
Topic:: Education, Employment, Higher Education, Undocumented Population, and Gender
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

358. Migrant Deaths in California’s Borderlands, 2018–2023

Author:: Marni LaFleur, Kat On, and Daniel Martínez
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: We examine the deaths of undocumented migrants in southern California (i.e., San Diego and Imperial counties) for fiscal years (FYs) 2018–2023 using data obtained from the San Diego County Medical Examiner’s Office (SDCMEO) and Imperial County Coroner’s Office (ICCO). We recorded 314 deaths of undocumented migrants, with 157 in San Diego County (SDC) and 157 in Imperial County (IC). We describe trend fluctuations in migrant deaths and both the overall and county-specific proportions as they relate to causes of death and demographic characteristics (biological sex and age at death). Additionally, to capture the potential effects of the 2019 border wall expansion and COVID-19 pandemic on migrant deaths, we examined differences in these factors between two periods: FY 2018–2019 and FY 2020–2023. We conclude by comparing migrant deaths reported by the medicolegal authorities to estimates published by US Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) Border Patrol for southern California. From 2018 to 2020, there were approximately 30 known migrant fatalities annually in California. This increased to about 88 deaths per year in 2021 and 2022 before dropping to 50 in 2023. Across the study period, the leading causes of death were drowning (35.4 percent), environmental exposure (23.6 percent), and blunt force trauma (16.9 percent), with the latter cause being largely associated with falls from the border wall. However, we found significant differences between SDC and IC. For instance, 51.6 percent of migrant deaths in IC were due to drowning, compared to 19.1 percent in SDC. Conversely, 21.7 percent of deaths in SDC were due to blunt force trauma, while just 12.1 percent of deaths in IC occurred in this manner. Overall, we found that 75.2 percent of decedents were male, 20.4 percent were female, and 4.5 percent were of unknown sex. Among cases in which a precise age at death was listed, the average age was 34.6 years. Nevertheless, sex and age differed by county in that SDC had a higher proportion of female decedents (28 percent in SDC vs. 12.7 percent in IC) and a higher average age at death (SDC x¯ = 36.8 vs. IC x¯ = 32.0). We also found significant differences between the two periods examined. Perhaps most striking, deaths due to blunt force trauma increased from 3.4 percent of cases in FY 2018–2019 to 19.9 percent of cases in FY 2020–2023. Decedent characteristics also appear to have changed across time. The share of male decedents decreased from 84.5 percent to 73.0 percent, while the share of females increased from 5.2 percent to 23.8 percent between the two periods, while the proportion of decedents ages 50 to 64 years increased significantly (from 4.7 percent to 12.7 percent). Finally, for FYs 2018–2022, CBP reported 25.6 percent fewer migrant deaths than medicolegal authorities in southern California. High numbers of migrant deaths in 2021 and 2022 can be attributed to circumstances during and following the COVID-19 pandemic, including a Trump Administration policy aimed at blocking access to the US asylum system. The expansion of the border wall during the Trump era may also explain increased migrant mortality in 2021 and 2022. Decreases in deaths in California in 2023 may be because of a novel entry location in the San Judas Break or result from a shift in migration trends toward other border states (i.e., Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas). County differences in drowning and blunt force trauma deaths were likely due to the presence of the All-American Canal in IC (drowning), and greater coverage of the pedestrian border wall in SDC (blunt force trauma), respectively. Although speculatory, the higher percentage of female decedents and older age of decedents in SDC may be because these vulnerable individuals perceive San Diego to be a safer route. Changes between FYs 2018–2019 and FYs 2020–2023 in blunt force trauma deaths (3.4 percent to 19.9 percent) are a result of falls from the newly expanded and constructed border wall. We suggest that after more than 30 years of implementation, the United States should eliminate the use of “deterrence” strategies to prevent further and unnecessary loss of life. Additionally, the following actions could reduce migrant mortality in California: installing buoys or other anti-drowning devices in the All-American Canal, making potentially life-saving resources (e.g., blankets and water) available on known migrant routes, and reducing the height of or removing the border barrier. We call for both CBP and medicolegal authorities to provide disaggregated data on migrant fatalities, which would facilitate an accurate accounting these deaths, increase understanding of where and why deaths occur, and therefore be used to support policy changes.
Topic:: Borders, Undocumented Population, Death, Migrants, and Forensics
Political Geography:: California, Mexico, and United States of America

359. Enforced Disappearance as a Border Management Tool: The Case of Border Patrol Detentions of Immigrant and Asylum-Seeking Families in the United States

Author:: Diego F. Leal and Natalie L. Cadwalader
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: This study examines the experiences of international migrants and asylum-seeker families recently released from the custody of the United States Border Patrol (BP) to assess their ability to make phone calls while in BP detention. The focus on phone access is critical to determining whether respondents experience enforced disappearance under international law, given that BP custody is usually incommunicado. To determine whether some BP detainees experience enforced disappearance in custody, authors collected and analyzed data from 117 respondents using a novel questionnaire. Respondents were heads of families. These families consisted of at least one adult and at least one minor child who were released to a non-profit short-term shelter in the United States (U.S.). Findings show that 78 percent of the respondents who were in BP custody experienced an enforced disappearance because they were not able to make phone calls and there was no reliable publicly accessible locator system to otherwise locate them. While this study provides critical context to how one distinct group of individuals released from BP custody (i.e., families released into the U.S.) experienced enforced disappearance, we note the importance of future studies that assess the situation of additional groups, including single adults released from BP into the U.S. and groups and individuals forced back (typically) to Mexico upon release from BP custody. We discuss policy recommendations to mitigate and prevent continued enforced disappearances in BP custody and to prevent additional human rights violations that are facilitated by enforced disappearance, including the right to access counsel, the right to due process, the right to seek asylum, the right of non-refoulment, and that may constitute a grave threat to the right to life.
Topic:: Asylum, Detention, Enforced Disappearance, and Border Patrol
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

360. Virtual Briefing Series | The Future of US-Iran Relations

Author:: Zeina AlShaib, Alan Eyre, and Jason Campbell
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: This on-the-record briefing, moderated by MEI's Zeina Al-Shaib, discussed the future of US-Iran relations. The recent 12-day war saw coordinated US and Israeli airstrikes against key Iranian military officials and nuclear facilities. Washington is weighing Iran’s conditional offer to return to nuclear negotiations contingent on firm security guarantees. Tehran is assessing whether to pursue diplomacy or reinforce its deterrent capabilities after this decisive confrontation. What impact will Tehran’s and Washington’s next steps have on the region’s already fragile political balance? The briefing featured Alan Eyre, a Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at MEI. A former senior State Department diplomat, Eyre served as a core member of the US nuclear negotiating team with Iran in 2010-15. The briefing also featured Jason H. Campbell, Senior Fellow at MEI. Campbell has previously served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy. Our experts discussed the lessons learned from the war between Israel and Iran; the prospect of renewed fighting; the future of Iran’s nuclear ambitions; the ripple effect of this conflict on the wider region; as well as outlines of a durable diplomatic solution.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

361. The Regional and Domestic Elements of Erdoğan's Grand Strategy

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Matthew Czekaj, and Gonul Tol
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Gönül Tol to discuss how shifting regional dynamics — from the Israel-Iran war to renewed violence in southern Syria — are reshaping Turkey’s foreign policy and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's domestic agenda. They unpack Ankara’s ties with the US under the Trump administration, its strained relations with Israel, the implications of Turkey’s peace process with the PKK, and Erdoğan’s bid to maintain his hold on power. The conversation also explores how Turkey is positioning itself as Western engagement grows more uncertain and what this means for the future of democracy in the country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, PKK, Regional Politics, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and United States of America

362. From Regional Insecurity to Global Peace: South Asia’s Security Pathways after U.S. Disengagement

Author:: Adeel Irfan and Sundas Khizar
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Disengagement of the U.S. from Afghanistan has altered the security situation in South Asia. South Asia has heightened insecurities but also opened new ways for collaboration. This research examines the security situation in the region from three perspectives: Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), The Theory of Securitization, and The Dependency Theory. It explains the interaction of local instabilities and the global peace discourse. The research is qualitative and discourse analytical in the description and analytical methods. The economic coherence, counterterrorism, geopolitical realignments, and security discourses are analysed to identify and pattern securitization, articulations of regional threats, and dependency. Interdependence of South Asia‘s security (RSCT) explains South Asia‘s security conundrum. Varying aspects of border disputes, terrorism, and other forms violence are ‗transnational‘. Securitization Theory explains how political leaders and BCEs construct narratives of existential threats (i.e. extremism, insurgency, refugees, and terrorism) to justify fonitization. Dependency Theory explains how the lack of autonomous security postures of South Asian States is framed. These findings suggest that, to achieve sustainable peace in South Asia, there is need to cooperative, regional construct self-dependency, and redeploy the revisited discourses of securitization. The study also adds to the discussion about redefining global peace, which, as the study argues, cannot simply mean the absence of conflict. Global peace must also contain cooperative, just, and desecuritized regional orders. South Asia, thus, teaches valuable lessons on how regional insecurity can be transformed into global peace.
Topic:: Peace, Disengagement, Securitization, Regional Security, Dependency, and Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT)
Political Geography:: South Asia and United States of America

363. U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Implications for Pakistan's Strategy

Author:: Abdul Ghafoor, Mirwais Kasi, and Umbreen Javaid
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This paper discusses US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its political-economic consequences on Pakistan in a changing regional environment. It underscores the U.S.-Pakistan-Afghanistan relations after 9/11 which started in the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, in operation enduring freedom on allegations that Taliban harbored Osama bin Laden. His subsequent demise in the year 2011 in Abbottabad, Pakistan, aggravated regional intricacies. Presidents of the United States Barack Obama and Donald Trump progressively sought troop withdrawal, which eventually saw the last withdrawal, August 21, 2021. The study examines the strategic and political-economic reactions of Pakistan especially its strategic depth seeking in Afghanistan. It also evaluates the potential of Pakistan to stabilize and contribute towards the political economy of Afghanistan. The methodology of the study is qualitative content analysis, with the help of NVivo-14 software. Under the Rational Choice Theory, the study examines the decision-making processes of states such as Pakistan to make strategic choices through cost-benefit analysis to navigate the region and enjoy the best avenue to foreign policy choices.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Political Economy, Military, and Rational Choice Theory
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

364. Artificial Intelligence and the New World Order: A Comparative Study of US-China Technological Rivalry

Author:: Adnan Nawaz, Syed Raghab Ali, Naudir Bakht, and Zosha Noor
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The power rivalry between the United States and China in the twenty-first century has been significantly influenced by advancements in artificial intelligence. This technology not only transforms economic markets but also enhances military capabilities and shapes political governance. This research explores the historical progression of AI development across these countries by showing how their unique political frameworks, alongside economic tables and strategic visions, created separate paths toward AI domination. During the Cold War years, the United States paced ahead through governmental investments combined with university innovation and its flexible private sector activity yet China obtained its growth through state-mandated direction and national planning alongside substantial financial allocations in line with initiatives like the Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan. China's Belt and Road initiative employs AI surveillance tools to construct new infrastructure as the United States depends on autonomous private enterprise operations without state control and freedom to conduct independent research. The competition between China and the United States targets multiple areas including semiconductor manufacturing technology together with quantum computing research and ethical standards creation which exposes weaknesses for each side. This study qualitatively evaluates the competition between US and China and analytically elucidates the key challenges which are posing threats to the global power hierarchy.AI operates as an accelerating force that shapes future power dynamics while determining digital sovereignty principles and deepening global ideological conflicts.
Topic:: Governance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Artificial Intelligence, Rivalry, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

365. The Lawful Losers? Why Democracies Struggle to Deter Cyber Aggression

Author:: Paul A. Eisenmann
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Democratic states are increasingly vulnerable in cyberspace due to inherent ethical constraints, transparency requirements, and legal oversight, significantly hindering their ability to effectively deter cyber aggression. This article critically assesses the strategic disadvantages democracies face using the examples of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, including attribution challenges, threshold ambiguities, and the problematic diffusion of cyber capabilities among state and nonstate actors. It evaluates how strict adherence to international humanitarian law (IHL) further constrains democratic responses, contrasting sharply with the operational flexibility enjoyed by authoritarian adversaries. The article advocates strengthening cyber resilience, promoting global norm-building initiatives, and crucially retaining credible traditional military retaliation options. This integrated strategy enables democracies to uphold their values, effectively counter cyber threats, and actively shape global cyber norms, thereby ensuring strategic stability and digital security.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Democracy, Deterrence, Norms, Resilience, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Constraints
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

366. Strategic Vulnerabilities in Space: U.S.-China Militarization and the Risks to Global Strategic Stability

Author:: Ameema Khalid
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This study investigates the militarization of space by the United States and China using the theoretical frameworks of technological determinism and the security dilemma. Data analysis of policy documents, military doctrines, and strategic literature reveals how technological advancements, mutual distrust, and dual-use technologies have transformed space into a contested domain. Findings indicate that the lack of international regulations and transparency exacerbates the risks of miscalculation and conflict. The study suggests actionable measures, including binding treaties, enhanced transparency, and conflict resolution mechanisms to promote peaceful space exploration. This research contributes to the broader discourse on space security by offering insights into managing militarization challenges in a rapidly advancing technological era.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Space, Strategic Stability, and Militarization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

367. The Berlin Pulse 2025/2026 (full issue)

Author:: Şener Aktürk, Solomiia Bobrovska, Christian von Hirschhausen, Sumantra Maitra, and Katarina Barley
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Körber-Stiftung
Abstract:: In this ninth edition, we explore the end of long-held certainties in the German public’s attitude towards foreign policy. Thanks to our editorial team – Julia Ganter, Leona Harting and Jonathan Lehrer – we learn that its views are at odds with two important pillars of Germanyʼs foreign policy: relations with the United States and responsibility for Israel’s security. With President Donald Trump in his second term, only 27 per cent of German respondents view relations with Washington positively, while the country’s leaders try to deal with an unpopular, less predictable but vital ally. And despite the centrality of relations with Israel to post war-German identity, feelings of responsibility towards Israel have declined. After the Gaza war triggered by Hamas’s 7 October 2023 terrorist attacks, only 35 per cent say that Germany holds a special responsibility toward Israel. The government now faces the challenge of upholding the country’s commitment to Israel’s security while not losing sight of public opinion. Amid these complex international partnerships and their domestic repercussions, many Germans seek greater autonomy and action. Nearly half of respondents (48 percent) support more engagement in global crises, 72 per cent back plans to almost double defence spending within a decade, and 59 per cent favour providing military aid to Ukraine. These attitudes stand for the Zeitenwende, which we have examined in recent editions of The Berlin Pulse. But can Germany strengthen its defence capabilities while maintaining its leading role in civilian crisis management at the same time? In this edition, authors like Rime Allaf, Ana Revenco and Eckart von Hirschhausen urge continued German leadership in environmental protection, support of democracy, Ukraine’s reconstruction and combating disinformation. With the number of conflicts and crises rising dependable rules can be an anchor. This is why UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, Vice President of the European Parliament Katarina Barley, and United Arab Emirates Policy Center President Ebtesam Al-Ketbi urge Germany and Europe to remain committed to defending human rights and to upholding international law. Looking back on the history of the Federal Republic, the gap between public opinion and official policy is nothing new. But in the current geopolitical context, the question how Germany’s government will navigate the relationship between foreign policy principles and a changing public mood arises with renewed urgency. This edition of The Berlin Pulse seeks to stimulate reflection and debate on this question.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Public Opinion, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Germany, Syria, and United States of America

368. Costly Adaptation, Not Capitulation: Iran’s Likely Trajectory Under the Post—JCPOA Pressure Campaign

Author:: Hadi Kahalzadeh
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Following the 12-day war with Israel, the reinstatement of U.N. Security Council snapback sanctions, and Washington’s renewed maximum pressure campaign, the Islamic Republic is now experiencing the most intense external political and economic coercion in its history. Yet this strategy is unlikely to deliver on the United States’ intended goals of regime change or nuclear restraint. Instead, it is pushing Iran toward deeper poverty, more complex security postures, and a trajectory that increases, not reduces, the likelihood of a costly military confrontation. From Tehran’s standpoint, Washington’s objectives extend beyond nuclear limits toward regime change. Negotiations are viewed as potential ambushes for another round of conflict, and accepting U.S. demands would be politically humiliating. In this deadlock, Tehran opts for resistance as the only survivable path. Iran has adapted its economy to withstand the strains caused by far-reaching Western sanctions through a wide range of measures. These include diversification, trade restructuring, de-dollarization, alternative banking pathways including offshore banking to circumvent U.S. control, shifting trade eastward to China (now Iran’s top trading partner), and import substitution in manufacturing and agriculture. When intense external political and economic pressures fail to produce the expected capitulation, a misinterpretation of Iran’s vulnerability could invite further pressure. Without a credible diplomatic path, this dynamic creates the possibility for a dangerous escalation cycle. While U.S. strikes on Iran this past June did considerable damage to nuclear facilities, Iran retains enough nuclear fissile material and technical expertise to preserve a position of strategic ambiguity. Iran’s adaptation strategy has preserved core state function and regime cohesion, even as the general public has suffered. Increasingly, Iran has become a patron welfare state, rewarding regime loyalty and shielding public employees and politically connected groups from the effects of sanctions, shifting economic burden onto the broader, politically disconnected public. By 2027, Iran will have approximately 10 million more people in poverty, a figure that could bring Iran’s overall poverty rate to 70 percent. Prolonging hardship for the Iranian public will not succeed in toppling Iran’s leaders or advancing U.S. objectives; the Iranian regime itself has proven adept at absorbing the costs of Western pressure, adapting its economy, and retaining nuclear leverage. America’s pressure-only policy only heightens the risk of a major Middle East war and thus should be discarded. The U.S. should instead reengage diplomatically with the Iranian regime toward the goal of stringent limits on Iranian nuclear capabilities in return for economic relief.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regime Change, Sanctions, Nuclear Power, Economy, Domestic Politics, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

369. How to Keep Resolution 2803 From Becoming a U.S.–Run Occupation

Author:: Carol Daniel-Kasbari
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza — adopted by the U.N. Security Council as Resolution 2803 — risks becoming yet another U.S.–run occupation. Coming on the heels of U.N. findings that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, the plan would place Washington at the center of a post-genocide mission. This brief lays out how the U.S. can avoid a quagmire by aligning implementation with genocide-prevention obligations, Palestinian self-determination, and a credible exit strategy. Resolution 2803 creates a U.S.–led Board of Peace as a transitional administration for Gaza, with a new international Stabilization Force, the ISF, under its umbrella, leaving Palestinian self-rule to a vague later “pathway.” This “interim” regime risks becoming “Oslo with helmets”: heavy on external control and light on rights. Without Palestinian co-ownership and a political horizon, such an arrangement is unlikely to succeed. It is more likely to fuel support for armed groups and to drag the U.S. into an indefinite security commitment it says it does not want. To avoid that outcome — and the resulting political blowback — this brief recommends that the U.S. use the tools it controls to reshape Resolution 2803 around three pillars: Post-genocide safeguards. Embed genocide-prevention and accountability into the mission’s mandate by requiring cooperation with the U.N. Commission of Inquiry and relevant international courts and by aligning any security assistance and arms transfers with prevention obligations. The U.S. cannot credibly send troops to protect Palestinians while continuing to arm the same campaign that devastated Gaza. Palestinian co-ownership. Allocate half of the Board of Peace’s votes to Palestinian representatives from national institutions and to Gaza-based municipal and civil society actors, and recognize the Palestinian executive committee as the core body for day-to-day governance. Any extension of the board and ISF beyond 2027 should require both a new Security Council vote and clear Palestinian consent. A rights-anchored transition and exit. Pair these institutional changes with a transition roadmap that goes beyond security indicators, including lifting movement and access restrictions, reopening crossings, rebuilding health and education systems, restoring due process, and creating civilian-protection mechanisms. Link this roadmap to halting settlement expansion and settler violence so Gaza’s transition is embedded in a broader shift away from permanent occupation. If President Trump ties his plan to enforceable benchmarks along these lines — and checks Israeli obstructionism rather than indulging it — the U.S. can help stabilize Gaza and secure a viable exit instead of inheriting an endless mission.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Genocide, United Nations, Occupation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

370. A U.S. Peace Plan for Ukraine

Author:: George Beebe
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: In advancing a peace settlement to resolve the Russia–Ukraine War, Washington must prioritize a concrete and detailed settlement to end this catastrophic conflict along terms that harmonize the vital, long-term interests of Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the United States. A ceasefire is unlikely, unless the outlines of such a settlement are reached beforehand. A peace settlement must address Ukrainian fears of future Russian aggression while simultaneously laying out a broader political framework that assuages Russia’s fears of strategic encirclement and international isolation. A successful settlement is possible along these lines: In exchange for the West and Ukraine’s acknowledgement that Ukraine will not be part of the NATO alliance, Russia accepts Ukraine’s eventual E.U. accession, contingent on the constitutional enshrinement of rights for the Russian minority in Ukraine and Ukraine’s postwar upholding of the democratic process. Russia accepts a Western–armed, trained, and maintained Ukrainian military force capable of deterring and defending against any new invasion (accompanied possibly by a ban on Ukraine’s possession of long-range missiles). In return, the United States should enter into talks with Russia on a new version of the New Strategic Arms Treaty, New START, as well as committing to a new version of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, INF. The United Nations mandates a comprehensive reconstruction fund for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets held by the European Union, including reconstruction in the Russian–occupied areas of Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia accept a ceasefire along the current territorial battlelines, establishing a de facto border in the four provinces of eastern Ukraine that will not be further changed by force or subversion. Once a broader political settlement has been established, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the U.S. accept a U.N. peacekeeping and monitoring force drawn from neutral Global South countries, to adjudicate a ceasefire line. The process of reaching a settlement will not be easy or quick and may require the exercise of U.S. leverage over Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. But such an accord could create security and stability for Ukraine and Europe more broadly, while also enabling U.S.–Russian detente and an eventual American military drawdown from Europe. Absent such a settlement, the war will continue to the detriment of Ukraine, placing its standing as a sovereign state — and its future integration within the European Union — in jeopardy.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

371. From Punishment to Denial: Stabilizing Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula

Author:: James Park
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: This brief argues for a more flexible, proactive, and credible approach to the U.S.–South Korea alliance’s deterrence vis-à-vis North Korea. The current punishment strategy is provocative and likely to be ineffective. We argue for pivoting to a strategy of “deterrence by denial” in response to North Korean uses of force short of invasion and nuclear attack (so-called “gray zone” aggression). The alliance’s strategy of “deterrence by punishment” should only be used as a last resort to deter a North Korean invasion or nuclear attack, and South Korea should also roll back its preemptive strike posture. Deterrence by denial aims to minimize the success of an act of aggression, building up defense capabilities and overall military resilience. Such an approach offers a level of flexibility, proportionality, and predictability that is not possible with deterrence by punishment and its strict threat of massive retaliation. Aspects of denial in the U.S.–South Korea alliance would include enhancing Seoul’s basing infrastructure and missile defense, reshaping the alliance’s joint exercises program to emphasize defensive functions, and a retaliatory posture based on proportionality. To maximize stability in their deterrence relationship with North Korea, the United States and South Korea should also vigorously pursue diplomacy and arms control negotiations, based on realistic goals and expectations that drop the demand for immediate North Korean denuclearization. While it would be the ideal long-term policy outcome, denuclearization is unrealistic as a near-term goal. Negotiations should instead center on tension reduction and arms control, aimed at lowering escalation risks and limiting North Korean nuclear capabilities and use. In return for North Korea accepting limits on its nuclear program, the United States and South Korea may offer sanctions relief initially and then further economic and political inducements, pending progress in arms control. Overall, the U.S.–South Korea alliance would benefit greatly from the more diverse set of policy tools associated with deterrence by denial, enhancing the alliance’s proactivity, assuaging North Korea’s existential fears of regime destruction, and strengthening the deterrent’s overall credibility. Combined with successful arms control negotiations, this new approach to deterrence would create a more durable foundation for stable coexistence on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

372. Trump Could Get a Win with North Korea This Time, by Taking Lessons from His First Term

Author:: Stephen Costello
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: All indications are that the Trump administration will once again pursue direct talks with North Korea. In doing so, it should learn from the mistakes of the failed 2018–19 U.S.–North Korea negotiations and seize the opportunity for a transformative nuclear agreement with Pyongyang. During the previous negotiations, it appears that North Korea offered ending the production of new nuclear weapons in exchange for civilian sanctions relief. In part due to the participation of hard-liners such as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, who were hostile to President Trump’s desire for a deal during his previous term, this offer was rejected and the talks failed. However, stopping the production of new fissile material, nuclear weapons, and long-range missiles would be highly beneficial to the United States and our allies and well worth ending nonmilitary sanctions. A similar deal should be pursued in new talks. Beyond the immediate benefits of ending the production of new weapons, such a deal could set up a diplomatic framework to address and diminish the North Korean nuclear arsenal over the long term. Building trust by concluding and adhering to an initial deal would be critical to any such effort. Adopted by the U.N. Security Council in 2016 and 2017, the current nonmilitary sanctions on North Korea amount to collective civilian punishment without any productive purpose. Rather than providing leverage, these sanctions have prevented diplomacy, intensifying Kim Jong Un’s intransigence and desire to further bolster his regime’s nuclear program. By lifting these nonmilitary sanctions, the Trump administration could chart a new path forward toward North Korean buy-in to the international nonproliferation regime, International Atomic Energy Agency inspections, and, possibly, the long-term goal of denuclearization. South Korea should be integrally involved from the planning stages to the deal’s signing and management. Such support will help to diffuse tensions with North Korea toward the long-term goal of peaceful coexistence on the Korean Peninsula. The United States should also seek Chinese backing of the deal, offering a credible guarantor of its implementation, while opening space for further U.S.–China nuclear diplomacy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

373. The Myth of the Monolith: The Latino Vote in U.S. Elections

Author:: María Teresa Kumar
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: María Teresa Kumar is the co-founder and President of Voto Latino, the nation’s largest Latino voter registration and youth advocacy organization. Under her leadership, Voto Latino has registered nearly 2 million voters, with 79 percent casting ballots. The organization has pioneered the use of technology, social media, and influencers to expand the Latino electorate in key battleground states and combat disinformation, reaching over 6 million Americans monthly. A recognized political strategist, Kumar has advised President Obama’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing and serves on the National Task Force on Election Crises. She is an Emmy-nominated MSNBC analyst and serves on the boards of Steve Madden, Emily’s List, and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. A first-generation Harvard Kennedy School graduate, she has been named among Bloomberg’s 100 Influential Latinos and Washingtonian’s Top Political Influencers.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Interview, and Latinos
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

374. The Politics of USAID

Author:: Cheryl Kamin
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Cheryl Kamin is a senior independent international health consultant. She most recently served as a Senior Infectious Disease Advisor (2018-2024) with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in the Bureau for Global Health’s Office of Infectious Diseases. She is a retired USAID Foreign Service Health Officer and has worked in the USAID Washington headquarters and overseas in USAID offices in Malawi, Russia, and Israel (working on the West Bank/Gaza portfolio). Kamin has extensive experience managing international maternal and child health programs and infectious disease prevention efforts focused on HIV/AIDS, TB, malaria, and emerging threats of global health security. Prior to serving as a Foreign Service Officer, Kamin worked with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. She was a Peace Corps volunteer in Niger and has a Master’s degree in Public Policy from the University of Michigan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, Interview, and USAID
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

375. El estado de la Unión Europea 2025

Author:: Francisco Aldecoa, Carlos Carnero, Enrique Ayala, José Candela, and Björn Hacker
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Europa afronta en el segundo cuarto del siglo xxi una transformación profunda del orden geopolítico y geoeconómico. A la comunidad internacional nacida de la postguerra hace 80 años le sucede la pretensión de potencias como Estados Unidos, China y Rusia de acabar con la naturaleza multilateral de un orden global que tiene como símbolo las Naciones Unidas y las instituciones de Bretton Woods. Se trata de sustituirlo por un orden nacionalista, aislacionista y proteccionista. En este Informe se estudia la forma en la que la Unión Europea ha de abordar retos importantes relacionados con ese cambio del orden global, así como las políticas internas que competen a la Unión, entre ellas la triple transformación digital, ecológica y social.
Topic:: Nationalism, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Inequality, Economy, Political Science, Protectionism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

376. The New Immigration Crackdown: Where Americans Stand

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Support for President Donald Trump’s handling of immigration has dropped 5 points among Americans since March 2025. Over four in ten Americans support Trump’s handling of immigration (43%), a decrease of 5 percentage points since March 2025. Support among Republicans has dipped from 90% to 86%. The steepest decline in support for Trump’s immigration agenda in the past few months — 11 points — comes from independents. Support has also declined by nearly 10 points among the youngest American adults (aged 18-29, from 41% to 32%) and seniors (65+, from 56% to 47%). Among Americans living in border states, approval of Trump’s handling of immigration has dropped from 42% to 33% since March. Increasing numbers of Americans in the past year support both a pathway to citizenship and allowing “Dreamers” to stay and gain legal status. Most Americans (60%) say that immigrants living in the United States illegally should be given a way to become citizens, provided they meet certain requirements, up from 56% last October. Among Republicans, support for a pathway to citizenship increased from 36% in 2024 to 40%; among Democrats, 77% to 82%. The increase in support for a path to citizenship was larger for independents, from 55% in 2024 to 61% this year. Support for allowing children brought illegally to the U.S. to gain legal resident status (known as DACA) increased from 52% in 2024 to 60% in 2025; support increased among Republicans, independents, and Democrats. Partisan divides remain stark on most of Trump’s immigration policies; yet such polarization is asymmetric, as independents’ views are more closely aligned with Democrats. Republicans and Democrats differ widely in their support for Trump’s immigration policies, ranging from whether undocumented immigrants should be arrested and detained if they have no criminal record, be detained in internment camps or deported to foreign prisons without due process, or whether U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers should be allowed to conceal their identities with masks or use unmarked vehicles. Independents, while not as strongly opposed to many of these policies undertaken or proposed by the Trump administration as Democrats, are still broadly opposed to such measures. Religion shapes views on immigration policies, with white Christians being more supportive of most of Trump’s immigration agenda than Christians of color, members of minority faith traditions, and the religiously unaffiliated. White evangelical Protestants hold the most consistently conservative positions on immigration policies: just 39% agree that immigrants, regardless of legal status, should have basic rights and protections, and 34% agree that ICE officers should not be allowed to conceal their identities; 57% agree that undocumented immigrants who have resided in the U.S. with no criminal record should be arrested and detained. While not as supportive of Trump’s immigration agenda as white evangelical Protestants, white Catholics and mainline/non-evangelical Protestants are consistently more supportive than other religious Americans and the religiously unaffiliated. Hispanic Protestants’ views on Trump’s more restrictive immigration policies are far more aligned with Hispanic Catholics than white Christians. Just three in ten Americans support Trump’s immigration agenda, according to PRRI’s newly developed immigration policy scale. PRRI developed a comprehensive scale combining responses to eight questions measuring support for eight of Trump’s immigration measures. Among those, three in ten favor Trump’s agenda, including one in ten Americans who strongly favor it. Two-thirds of Americans oppose Trump’s immigration agenda, including four in ten Americans who strongly oppose it. Americans who most trust far-right news (81%) and Fox News (71%), Republicans (63%), Christian nationalism Adherents (57%), and white evangelical Protestants (55%) are the most likely to strongly favor or favor Trump’s immigration agenda. Multivariate analysis shows which factors are best able to predict support for, or opposition to, Trump’s immigration agenda. Republicans, those with confidence in ICE, and those who view immigration as a critical issue are each at least twice as likely as their counterparts (Democrats, those without confidence in ICE, and those who do not see immigration as critical) to support Trump’s immigration agenda. Compared with religiously unaffiliated Americans, Hispanic Catholics and Hispanic Protestants are less likely to support Trump’s immigration policies once controlling for other factors. Christian nationalism Adherents, Sympathizers, and Skeptics are each twice as likely as Rejecters to support Trump’s immigration agenda. Americans who disagree that immigrants strengthen American society are about three times as likely to support Trump’s immigration policies as those who agree that immigrants strengthen American society. Similarly, believing that being born in America is important to being truly American is a strong predictor of support for Trump’s immigration agenda. Americans who are very concerned that their families will not be able to pay for housing and basic living expenses over the next year are less likely to support Trump’s immigration agenda.
Topic:: Immigration, Public Opinion, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

377. Trump’s Unprecedented Actions Deepen Asymmetric Divides

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Executive Summary Americans remain pessimistic about the country’s direction and the state of the country, with sharp partisan reversals since 2024. Six in ten Americans (62%) believe things in the country are going in the wrong direction, including most Democrats (92%) and independents (71%), compared with 24% of Republicans. In 2024, 94% of Republicans, 70% of independents, and 41% of Democrats said the same. While partisanship has always colored Americans’ outlook on the direction of the country, partisan polarization has dramatically increased on this measure over time. In 2011, during Obama’s presidency, 85% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats said the country was going in the wrong direction — a 31-point gap. Today, the 68-point gap between Republicans and Democrats represents an all-time high. Majorities of Americans say the economy (65%) and the ways the federal government is functioning (65%) or dealing with undocumented immigrants (57%) are headed in the wrong direction. Most Americans (60%) also say the way the U.S. is dealing with other countries is going in the wrong direction. Republicans rate these areas far more positively than Democrats and independents. Inflation remains a main concern among all Americans; among Republicans, immigration and crime are the top critical issues, while the protection of basic rights, the health of democracy, and health care are the top critical issues for Democrats and independents. Majorities of Americans across party lines rate increasing the cost of housing and everyday expenses as a critical issue, though Democrats and independents are roughly 10 points more likely to do so than Republicans. Aside from inflation, Republicans are most likely to rank immigration (56%) and crime (53%) as critical issues. Majorities of both Democrats and independents rate the protection of basic rights such as free speech (65% vs. 52%) and health care (64% vs. 52%) as critical issues. More than seven in ten Democrats (72%) rate the health of our democracy as a critical issue, an increase from 61% in 2024.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Inflation, Donald Trump, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

378. The Cape Assurance Corridor: Turning Maritime Security into a Regional Export for Southern Africa

Author:: Erika van der Merwe
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Red Sea insecurity has rerouted significant volumes of global trade around the Cape of Good Hope, shifting both demand and opportunity toward Southern Africa’s waters. The region can convert this diversion into a durable preference by offering an exportable public good in the form of assurance. This means delivering safe, predictable, and increasingly low‑carbon passage that insurers can price and operators can plan around. This brief proposes a SADC‑led Cape Corridor Assurance Framework that integrates existing regional centres with national Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) feeds to produce daily risk bulletins, incident metrics, and audited port KPIs in formats recognised by underwriters and Protection and Indemnity Clubs (P&I Clubs). A Clean‑Corridor Compliance Code with continuous automatic identification systems (AIS) for high‑risk calls, designated and monitored Ship-to-Ship (STS) zones, and beneficial‑ownership disclosures can help deter shadow‑fleets without penalising compliant traffic. Cable resilience should be treated as core corridor infrastructure through charted no-anchor/no-trawl areas, VTS integration, and pre-contracted rapid repair capabilities. Service reliability should be showcased through transparent KPI dashboards at Durban, Cape Town, and Ngqura, regularised offshore bunkering at Algoa Bay, and green-fuel bunkering at Saldanha and Walvis Bay, all under strict safety and environmental protocols. This package complements the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by standardising essential security and regulatory practices, while also endeavouring to respect national sovereignty through a minimum‑standards approach. In a world of geopolitical detours, the most profitable route is the one whose risks are visible, managed, and insurable. With pragmatic governance and disciplined execution, Southern Africa can make the Cape Corridor that route.
Topic:: Exports, Trade, Resilience, Shipping, Supply Chains, Instability, and Maritime Security
Political Geography:: Africa, Iran, Middle East, South Africa, and United States of America

379. Black Intergenerational Mobility, Libertarian Capitalism, and Authoritarian Government, 1877–1941: A Case Study

Author:: Patrick Mason
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: There are persistent multigenerational Black-white gaps in occupational attainment. These racial differences in intergenerational mobility are not caused by differences in family values and behavior (Mason, 2007). For three decades, I have gathered evidence on my family’s intergenerational transition from enslavement to present social and economic circumstances. Charles and Susan Rollins were 32 and 29 years-old, respectively, as enslavement ended in 1865. During Reconstruction, they accumulated wealth, established a successful dairy and other farming, helped found a church and religious organizations, helped found multiple civic organizations, served on boards affiliated with the local university and high school, were elected to County and State public office, had savings and bank accounts for the entire family, and were leaders among an extensive social network. Jim Crow in the South and anti-black racism in the north stymied upward mobility for the Rollins family for the three generations after Charles and Susan, despite the fact that their descendants obtained greater education than their ancestors, displayed a willingness to relocate 100s of miles away from their home, possessed a culture of achievement (hard work, future orientation, married couple families, etc.), were blessed with exceptional social capital, and, perhaps, the relative advantage of being mulattoes.
Topic:: Race, Authoritarianism, Capitalism, Slavery, Economic Mobility, Libertarianism, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

380. The Temporal Demands of Parental Child Care: Evidence from the American Time Use Survey

Author:: Nancy Folbre and Jooyeoun Suh
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Most research on parental time devoted to child care is based on survey questions regarding explicit care activities or co-presence of parents and children in the same room, factors clearly relevant to child development. Time spent keeping an eye and/or ear on young children while engaging in other activities deserves attention for a different reason—it represents an even larger constraint on maternal employment. Analysis of pooled time-diary data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) from 2004-2019 focuses on an underutilized question that asks respondents when own household children under the age of 13 were “in their care,” and shows that reported parental time likely devoted to supervision parental time likely devoted to supervision exceeds time devoted to active care by a factor of 2.9 and is more negatively related to maternal hours in paid employment. In-your-care time is an important indicator of the opportunity costs of motherhood, especially in low-income households unable to purchase or otherwise unable to obtain “babysitting” assistance.
Topic:: Economics, Women, Employment, Inequality, Time, Gender, and Child Care
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

381. The Impact of the War on Drugs on Union Density, 1973-2022

Author:: Michael J. Naples
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The War on Drugs (WoD) notoriously targeted poor people and communities, especially people of color. Its negative impact on the formation and defense of unions has only recently been studied. This paper explores the magnitude of the WoD’s role in increasing arrests and imprisonment, and its long shadow in probation and parole. It details the way it divided workers by race, and hammered the poor under the pretext of fighting drugs. Incorporating unemployment and manufacturing’s employment share, the paper shows that the WoD and the conservative turn it represented contributed substantially to the decline in union density.
Topic:: Race, War on Drugs, Prisons/Penal Systems, Unions, Incarceration, and Probation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

382. Stabilizing Cobalt Markets: A Price Floor for U.S. Minerals Security

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Achieving economic viability for minerals security is one of the most pressing hurdles facing U.S. minerals security objectives. While this challenge spans the entire critical minerals landscape, it is particularly acute for cobalt. Despite cobalt’s central role in both energy security and the defense industrial base, its market remains highly distorted in the critical minerals ecosystem. Prices have swung wildly over the past decade, driven less by supply-and-demand fundamentals than by strategic behavior, particularly persistent oversupply from People’s Republic of China (PRC) producers that dominate global mining, refining, and processing. Between May 2022 and May 2025, cobalt prices plunged 59.5 percent, falling from $41 to $16.62 per pound. This sharp decline coincided with China Molybdenum Company Limited (CMOC) nearly doubling its annual cobalt production in 2024, reaching record output levels despite market prices falling more than 60 percent. The surge in PRC output has pushed several Western operations out of the market. In 2022, Jervois opened the United States’ only cobalt mine in Idaho, only to shutter it that the following year as prices cratered. While cobalt prices have begun to show upward momentum after a long period of weakness, the benchmark price for refined cobalt remains around $22.30 per pound as of late November 2025. But this relief is fleeting. The DRC has already signaled that it will move away from an export ban—an action that will flood the market once again and put renewed downward pressure on cobalt prices. To avoid another collapse that forces non-PRC producers offline, the United States and its allies must move quickly to deploy price support mechanisms that keep Western mines operating and prevent the market from reverting to PRC dominance.
Topic:: Security, Markets, Supply Chains, Cobalt, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

383. The Depleting Missile Defense Interceptor Inventory

Author:: Wes Rumbaugh
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The prolific use of missiles and drones in the June 2025 war between Israel and Iran illustrated the growing role of these weapons in modern conflict. The significant expenditure of air and missile defense interceptors, especially by the United States, over the course of the 12-day conflict highlighted both the scarcity and importance of these critical military capabilities. Estimating interceptor inventories presents certain challenges, but examining the available budget data allows for a better contextualization around reported expenditure numbers. This data raises concerns about the inventory of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, in particular, suggesting the need to invest in additional capacity. Nevertheless, these investments must be coupled with measures to provide a more sustainable demand signal to industry if the goal is to build a more resilient and responsive industrial base for air and missile defense interceptors.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Drones, Missile Defense, Defense Spending, and Interceptors
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

384. Three Steps to Protect the United States Against Extreme Heat: A Report of the CSIS Alliance Working Group on Climate and Health

Author:: J. Stephen Morrison, Katherine E. Bliss, and Christina E. Zielke
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Extreme heat is becoming an urgent priority in the United States and beyond. The threat posed by extreme heat has become a matter of national security, impacting U.S. military readiness, while threatening economic growth, productivity, and global competitiveness. The negative health, social, and economic effects of extreme heat have become a common, lived experience among broad sectors of the American public, cutting across income, racial, ideological, and geographic lines. As extreme heat events have become more politically salient, they have raised popular expectations and prompted state, municipal, and local leaders, working in partnership with universities, community groups, businesses, and philanthropies, to seek pragmatic solutions that draw support across the partisan divide. In the fall of 2024, the CSIS Bipartisan Alliance for Global Health Security launched a working group to develop policy recommendations for addressing climate-related health challenges that have implications for national security. The working group argues that three actions lay the foundation of a strategy to better protect Americans, strengthen preparedness, and protect U.S. national interests: the launch of a high-level bipartisan panel, the establishment of a data consortium, and the strengthening of essential core federal functions. In combination, these measures will make the United States stronger, more secure, and more prosperous.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, National Security, Infectious Diseases, Global Health, and Heat
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

385. Identifying Pathways for U.S. Shipbuilding Cooperation with Northeast Asian Allies

Author:: Henry H. Carroll and Cynthia R. Cook
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Military conflict in the Indo-Pacific would demand overwhelming U.S. naval power. Yet the shipbuilding sector faces capacity shortages, industrial base constraints, cost overruns, and delayed delivery, suggesting that Washington should explore alternative pathways for delivering naval capability. One approach is to enhance cooperation with close allies such as Japan and South Korea. Options for cooperation include allied participation in maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO); allied purchase and revitalization of U.S. shipyards; various methods of coproduction, including modular construction; and U.S. purchase of allied-built ships. Novel strategies that leverage the United States’ strong and unique network of allies and partners will require thoughtful implementation of industrial cooperation policy, which has historically been challenging. For the United States to strike the right balance between leaning on its allies and partners to alleviate its shipbuilding problems and investing in its own capabilities at home—for these approaches are not mutually exclusive—it should understand the implications of its various cooperative options with its allies.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Navy, Defense Industry, and Shipbuilding
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, Korea, and United States of America

386. A New Era in Health Security: A Call to Action from the CSIS Bipartisan Alliance for Global Health Security

Author:: J. Stephen Morrison, Michaela Simoneau, Katherine E. Bliss, Enoh T. Ebong, Elizabeth Cameron, and Paul Friedrichs
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The CSIS Bipartisan Alliance for Global Health Security has evaluated the policy changes unfolding in the past several months as a new era in national, economic, and health security begins. This call to action is an appeal to the administration and Congress to protect and strengthen investments in health security programs, which make Americans safer, stronger, and more prosperous. The first order of business is to restore confidence and trust in health security policies and their execution. To that end, the alliance calls on the administration and Congress to (1) stabilize and modernize core health security capabilities; (2) secure and sustain U.S. leadership in science and biomedical research; and (3) accelerate innovations in financing that enable efficient, effective, and accountable health security investments. Together, these actions will ensure Americans remain protected, U.S. innovation remains competitive, and U.S. government programming is more efficient and sustainable going forward, assured of strong support among Americans.
Topic:: Infectious Diseases, Global Health, and Health Security
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

387. Friendshoring Copper: A New Pillar of the U.S.-Brazilian Economic Partnership

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran, Meredith Schwartz, and Bryan Harris
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Brazil holds some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals, including niobium, rare earths, graphite, manganese, bauxite, zinc, and lithium. However, the next frontier is copper, which now accounts for one-third of all mineral exploration investment in the country. Market enthusiasm for Brazil’s copper aligns with a global outlook in which copper demand is projected to nearly double by 2035. China has already secured a strong foothold in Brazil’s mining ecosystem through trade agreements, concessional financing, and infrastructure investments. By contrast, the United States remains in the early stages of building a minerals partnership with Brazil. Unlocking Brazil’s potential as a major copper producer—and securing U.S. access to this strategic metal—will require bilateral efforts. Brazil must strengthen geological mapping, expand infrastructure, and streamline its overly bureaucratic permitting system. On the U.S. side, deploying strategic financing, promoting vertical supply chain integration, and offering targeted tariff exemptions to advance national and economic security objectives will be critical to a successful partnership.
Topic:: Economics, Partnerships, Mining, Trade, Economic Security, Copper, and Friendshoring
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

388. Left-Wing Terrorism and Political Violence in the United States: What the Data Tells Us

Author:: Daniel Byman and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: In recent years, the United States has seen an increase in the number of left-wing terrorism attacks and plots, although such violence has risen from very low levels and remains much lower than historical levels of violence carried out by right-wing and jihadist attackers. So far, 2025 marks the first time in more than 30 years that left-wing terrorist attacks outnumber those from the violent far right. Despite its decline this year, right-wing terrorism could easily return to previous high levels. It is important to resource counterterrorism efforts against both right- and left-wing terrorism and work with communities to gain their support against extremists. Leaders across the political spectrum must condemn violent extremism of all kinds, denying it legitimacy and reducing its appeal.
Topic:: Political Violence, Terrorism, Leftist Politics, and Data
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

389. Community Insights on Weather-Induced Energy Insecurity: A Case Study of Extreme Heat and Power Outages in North Lawndale, Chicago

Author:: Qëndresa Krasniqi, Helen Yibrah, and Rachel Scheu
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Extreme heat and power outages are two growing climate-driven threats that endanger the health and safety of vulnerable households and communities. Heat waves are among the deadliest natural hazards in the United States, and they are becoming more frequent, longer lasting, and more intense. Power outages, also on the rise, compound the risks posed by heat waves. These threats not only intersect, they also disproportionately impact communities with high economic, health, and social vulnerability—many of which have been shaped by a legacy of structural discrimination. The US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that Black residents are 40% more likely to live in areas with higher mortality rates from rising temperatures than non-Black residents. This report, part of the Energy Opportunity Lab at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, explores how residents of North Lawndale, a predominantly Black and historically under-resourced neighborhood on Chicago’s West Side, experience the compounded effects of heat waves and power outages. With rates of chronic health issues, poverty, unemployment, and energy burden (the percentage of income used to pay energy bills) well above state averages, North Lawndale contends with more frequent and longer outages as well as greater barriers to coping with extreme heat compared to wealthier neighborhoods in Chicago. By sharing concerns expressed by local residents during a focus group discussion, this report adds community voices to existing research on weather-induced energy insecurity to ensure that the experiences of affected people are better understood by policymakers weighing reform options. Participants described significant impacts from outages—from trauma and food loss to isolation and disruption of caregiving responsibilities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Security, Heat, and Power Outages
Political Geography:: North America, Chicago, and United States of America

390. Maternal and Child Mortality: How Do U.S. States Compare Internationally?

Author:: Evan D. Gumas, Munira Z. Gunja, and Irene Papanicolas
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: In the United States, the risk of dying from pregnancy-related causes is more than four times higher for someone giving birth in Louisiana than in California, and a child born in Mississippi is nearly three times more likely to die before age 5 than a child in Massachusetts. National averages can obscure this dramatic variation, much of which stems from state-level policy choices around Medicaid, reproductive health, hospital regulation, and social welfare, among others. To examine variations within the U.S., this brief compares maternal and child mortality rates at the national, state, and racial and ethnic level to 200 countries. Comparing disaggregated U.S. rates to nations with similar population sizes and economies can illuminate how different policy environments shape health outcomes. Historically, states that invest more in health coverage, reproductive care, and social protections tend to have better health outcomes, in some cases on par with high-income countries, while states that invest less and pass more restrictive policies have outcomes similar to low- and middle-income or politically unstable countries.1 Disaggregating by race and ethnicity is critical for a full picture of maternal and child mortality in the U.S. as state and national mortality rates often mask worse outcomes for Black, American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN), and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) communities. This brief draws on data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), national registries, the World Health Organization (WHO), and the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) (see “How We Conducted This Study” for more details).
Topic:: Race, Public Health, Child Mortality, Disparity, and Maternal Mortality
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

391. Five Key Decisions to Revitalize US Critical Mineral Stockpiles

Author:: Tom Moerenhout, Cina Vazir, and Irina Patrahau
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The United States is at a pivotal moment to modernize its approach to critical mineral stockpiling. Minerals are increasingly central to American strategic interests, yet the US remains heavily reliant on foreign suppliers, particularly China, for processed materials. This dependency exposes the US to major vulnerabilities in national, economic, and climate security. The National Defense Stockpile (NDS) can be a key policy lever to reduce these vulnerabilities. At present, however, the NDS is underfunded, covering only a fraction of projected needs in a national emergency. It also may not be realizing its potential to address underlying market failures that threaten US economic interests in addition to its historical defense role. This report, part of the Critical Materials Initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, finds that an economic stockpile with market-shaping quantities of material may cost more than six times the amount of a defense-oriented stockpile. It is therefore important to integrate stockpiling choices into the wider array of policy options, analyzing whether a stockpile is the most efficient tool to address the specific market failure at hand for each material and transaction. The report outlines five foundational choices if a stockpiling strategy is adopted, as bipartisan support suggests is possible, and offers related recommendations for US policymakers designing such a system.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, Critical Minerals, and Stockpiling
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

392. A World Adrift: Reordering and New Pathways of Cooperation

Author:: Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Global governance is under severe strain as geopolitical conflicts, climate risks, pandemics, technological disruptions, and widening inequalities unfold amid the United States’ retrenchment from the international arena and China’s assertiveness in global affairs. A more pluralistic global landscape is emerging where new and old institutions coexist. Regional and middle powers, including groupings like ASEAN, can shape a more stable and cooperative order through inclusive, rules-based frameworks that strengthen resilience and revitalise multilateralism.
Topic:: Governance, Geopolitics, Institutions, ASEAN, Regional Power, and Middle Power
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

393. After the American Retreat: How Southeast Asia Can Seize its Climate Future

Author:: Adam Hansen and Pey Peili
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s aggressive rollback of US climate policy has left a global void. Yet, for Southeast Asia, this is not just a crisis but a catalyst. By leveraging critical minerals to sustain US engagement and through strengthening ties with new partners, the region can forge a resilient, independent green path.
Topic:: Climate Change, Partnerships, Donald Trump, Critical Minerals, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:: North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

394. Deterioration of relations between the US and India

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The imposition by Donald Trump’s administration of 50% tariffs on goods from India, a tightened migration policy, as well as the strengthening of US cooperation with Pakistan, have all led to the most serious crisis in Indian-American relations in 25 years. Although both sides will try to ease tensions and return to normal cooperation, the shift in US policy has undermined India's trust in the US. As a result, India will be more willing to cooperate with other partners, including the BRICS countries. It will be important for the EU to strengthen its cooperation with India in order to try to prevent a deeper anti-Western drift in Indian policy.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Donald Trump, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

395. The political scene in Israel a year before the Knesset elections

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2026 will be the first chance for Israeli political forces to renew their social mandate since the Gaza Strip war began. Polls show that Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition may lose its majority. This could prompt the government to use foreign policy more for electoral purposes. The opposition’s chances depend on how well it consolidates and how effective the new parties' messages are. External influences on the campaign, especially from the US, will likely intensify.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Knesset, Parliament, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

396. Energy Derussification of Poland's Visegrad Partners

Author:: Łukasz Ogrodnik and Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: While Czechia has moved away from importing Russian energy resources, Hungary and Slovakia remain the most dependent EU countries. As a result of EU and US sanctions against Russia, both countries will have to make efforts to reduce this dependence. This prospect represents an opportunity for Poland to deepen cooperation in its role as a provider of energy security.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Visegrad Group, Energy, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, United States of America, and Czechia

397. Brazil Faces Mounting Pressure from the United States

Author:: Mateusz Piotrowski and Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: A political motivation was the main driver of the U.S. measures against Brazil and its authorities in July and August, as President Donald Trump tried to protect former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro from criminal charges of plotting a coup d’état. The Trump administration responded to Bolsonaro’s conviction on 11 September with new threats and additional sanctions. The Brazilian government will intensify its attempts at dialogue with the U.S. and seek support from other BRICS+ members, among other partners, and assistance for domestic industries affected by the punitive U.S. tariffs. The conflict with the United States will influence the course of the campaign ahead of next year’s general elections in Brazil.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Elections, Tariffs, Coup, Donald Trump, BRICS, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

398. U.S. Implements "Reciprocal" Tariffs, Significantly Altering Foreign Trade Conditions

Author:: Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: After a suspension period, the so-called reciprocal tariffs came into force on 7 August, establishing new conditions for trade between the U.S. and its partners. This will increase predictability in international trade, but will also likely weaken global economic growth. The diversity and complexity of the regulations may hinder their implementation and undermine the principles of international trade within the WTO system.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Economic Growth, Tariffs, and WTO
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

399. U.S. Fosters Rwanda-Congo Peace Deal for Mineral Rights

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: On 27 June in Washington, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda signed a peace agreement, reached under U.S. auspices. It is based on a “security for minerals” formula. Although it carries the promise of development by linking the economies of the DRC, Rwanda, and the U.S. in the extractive sector, the chances of its full implementation are slim.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Extractive Industries, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa, Rwanda, United States of America, and Congo

400. Development cooperation at a tipping point: how, why and through what mechanisms do policy norms break?

Author:: Andy Sumner and Stephan Klingebiel
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper applies the concepts and theories of “policy norms” to the disruptive effects of the second Trump administration on global development cooperation. We argue that recent US actions represent more than a domestic political shift. They signal a tipping point to longstanding norms of the development cooperation system and specifically multilateralism as well as notions of global solidarity. This paper's objective is to explain how, why and through which political and institutional mechanisms policy norms break down or are reconstituted in global development cooperation. It uses the current moment as a case study of “norm antipreneurship”, potentially even “norm imperialism” illustrating the political and institutional strategies through which policy norms are currently being contested, dismantled or displaced. This paper addresses a set of questions: (i) What are the core mechanisms through which development cooperation norms are formed, contested and fragmented? (ii) How is the second Trump administration seeking to reshape normative regimes in development cooperation? (iii) What research agenda is needed to understand norm change in a multipolar and contested development cooperation landscape?
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Multilateralism, Donald Trump, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS