Political Geography: United States of America / Publication Year: within 3 Years

1401. Charting a roadmap for multiparty confidence and security building measures, risk reduction, and arms control in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: David Santoro and Miles Pomper
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The practice of strategic dialogue, confidence-building measures (CBMs), risk reduction, and arms control has its roots in the nuclear revolution and the Cold War. It thus developed in the Euro-Atlantic because of the realities of the US-dominated, Eurocentric security environment of the time; recall that the United States had just fought the Second World War with a Europe-first strategy. That practice developed primarily in two directions: between the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and between the United States and the Soviet Union, the two superpower enemies. The goal of strategic dialogue between the United States and NATO, still in place today, has been to build deterrence of adversaries and defense of the “free world,” and an important by-product has been reassurance of weaker NATO allies by the much stronger United States. To do so, Washington and allied capitals have engaged at many levels, including in the strategic nuclear domain, where they have established shared roles and responsibilities over forward-deployed US nuclear weapons.1 Strategic dialogue between the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia, meanwhile, developed in the context of bilateral arms control discussions. After they built the nuclear capabilities to assure their mutual destruction, and after the Berlin and Cuban crises of 1961 and 1962 when they flirted with nuclear confrontation, the United States and the Soviet Union sought to stabilize their relationship by preserving mutual deterrence. This was achieved through negotiations, which began in the early 1960s and first culminated in a hotline agreement in 1963. This agreement created a direct communication link between Washington and Moscow for use in time of emergency. It was followed by several rounds of talks that led to agreements imposing limits and, later, reductions on US-Soviet/Russian nuclear arsenals. In the late 1990s, US-Russia arms control discussions expanded into the NATO context. Under the auspices of the NATO-Russia Council, at least until the 2010s, the United States, other NATO allies, and Russia explored the requirements of strategic stability in an ongoing dialogue and worked to improve the relationship between the West and Russia.
Topic:: NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Dialogue, Confidence Building Measures, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: United States of America and Indo-Pacific

1402. The United States & Japan: Allied Against Disinformation

Author:: Rachel E. Brooks, Taro Nishikawa, Ryohei Suzuki, Jonathon Marek, and Koutaka Yuichiro
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Pacific Forum, like the US government and much of the international security community, considers the information space a crucial theater in the United States’ ongoing great power competition with the People’s Republic of China and Russia. To meet the need for fresh policy ideas, as well as Pacific Forum’s long-standing mandate to train the next generation of policy professions in the US and its partners, we present to you this volume. In it, readers will find the finalists of our Young Professionals Essay Contest, as part of our ongoing program, The United States & Japan: Allied Against Disinformation. Open to nationals of the two countries, the contest received numerous entries and the final decision was not an easy one—especially when comparing our finalists. On the Japanese side, Yuichiro Kotaka raises the threat posed by generative AI and poses solutions for how governments can address it, while Ryohei Suzuki suggests putting the public broadcaster NHK to use. On the US side, Jonathon Marek raises the alarm over the threat posed by authoritarian governments who have recognized disinformation as a valuable tool, while Thomas Ramage offers suggestion on how the alliance itself can address the threat that disinformation poses. However, our committee ultimately settled on two essays that stood out above the rest: on the Japanese side, Taro Nishikawa’s essay on counter-disinformation campaigns in the age of cognitive warfare was singled out for addressing the current discourse within China and for its focus on US-Japan responses. Among the American entries, Rachel Brooks’ take on how countering disinformation can be part of school curriculums received praise for its originality, creativity, and for providing both an educator’s narrative and an educator’s solution. We thank all of our contestants for their participation, and for contributing potential solutions in this age of information competition.
Topic:: International Security, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1403. Friend-shoring in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Akhil Ramesh and Rob York
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlight the challenges of increased economic interconnectedness with adversarial states. The shortages in critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other industries significant for technological advancement in the fourth industrial revolution have revealed the importance of select supply chains to the American public and the broader global community. As the strategic competition between the US and China accelerates, understanding of their importance will only grow. The Biden administration, to its credit, realized early on the importance of four critical sectors for the future of US supply chain security: pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, large-scale batteries, and semiconductors. Alarmingly, through the research presented here by Akhil Ramesh and myself, we see that the People’s Republic of China has deeply embedded itself in three of these four sectors, and still seeks to strengthen its position in the fourth (semiconductors). Also, one of the recurring problems highlighted in this research is the tendency of the administration to consider the job done once it sources a critical technology from somewhere other than China—not realizing that the PRC serves as a source for that country elsewhere in the supply chain.
Topic:: Pharmaceuticals, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, Batteries, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: United States of America and Indo-Pacific

1404. New Leaders Challenged by US-China Rivalry

Author:: Catharin Dalpino
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Over the summer three Southeast Asian nations—Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia—conducted political contests or prepared for them, with Washington and Beijing watching closely for shifts in alignments or opportunities to make inroads with new leaders. Despite this, and possibly because of it, China made bold moves in the South China Sea and caused outcry in the region with the release of a map supporting its claims to the “Nine-Dash Line.” Beijing also showed signs of worry about Russian inroads into Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. The high-profile visit to Washington of Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. enabled both countries to reconfirm the US-Philippines alliance publicly, although it gave little indication of where the broader relationship may be headed. ASEAN continued to make little headway in helping to resolve the conflict in Myanmar; and the 2023 chair, Jakarta attempted to redirect the group toward economic goals and a common approach to looming food insecurity in the region. However, Jakarta may be set to swim in deeper waters: Indonesia was among 20 countries invited to join the BRICS group of “middle powers,” and the only one from Southeast Asia. Jakarta deferred membership for two years in order to “consult” with regional leaders, leaving the new president to make a decision on entering the BRICS, but Indonesia is not likely to turn down the opportunity to play a greater role on the world stage.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, BRICS, Rivalry, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

1405. From Non-Alignment to Realignment

Author:: Akhil Ramesh and Cleo Paskal
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The US and India expanded cooperation across various domains in the second reporting period of 2023. The two moved to materialize projects and initiatives that were conceived in the first quarter, in wide-ranging domains with significant geopolitical and geoeconomic scope including defense cooperation, critical and emerging technologies, and infrastructure development. While New Delhi continued to straddle groupings such as BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the US-India partnership broke ground on more initiatives than any of India’s other bilateral relationships. Modi and Biden visited each other’s capitals and reaffirmed their commitment to a rules-based international order. The rousing reception Modi received in Washington and the continued US preeminence in most major trade and technology initiatives conceived by India highlighted the growing partnership between the two democracies. And the two leaders, while facing elections next year, seem willing to work together on common global priorities—sometimes at domestic political costs. Also, while taking place outside the May-August reporting period, the enormous groundwork Delhi laid over the summer (and earlier), plus the absence of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, transformed the G20 meeting that took place in September into an event that showcased India’s leadership in finding common ground between the priorities of the Global South and the US. The result was potentially transformative geoeconomic initiatives that could reshape geopolitics, and encourage, for example, the conditions necessary for a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. This wasn’t the India of nonalignment; this was an India shaping a realignment, with tacit US support.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Realignment
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

1406. Regional Overview: Building Partnerships Amidst Major Power Competition

Author:: Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Major power competition was the primary topic du jure at virtually all of this trimester’s major multilateral gatherings, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continuing to serve as a litmus test—a test many participants struggled to avoid taking. It was clear which side of the fence the G7 leaders stood on; Putin’s invasion was soundly condemned and Sino-centric warning bells were again gently sounded. At the BRICS Summit and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (sans the US), those alarms were clearly muted, as they were at the ASEAN Regional Forum, at which foreign ministers from all three were present. Headlines from the IISS Shangri-la Dialogue focused on the meeting that did not occur, as China’s defense minister pointedly refused to meet with his US counterpart. At the ASEAN-ISIS’ Asia-Pacific Roundtable, participants lamented the impact of major power tensions on ASEAN unity, even though ASEAN’s main challenges are internal ones that predate the downturn in China-US relations. Meanwhile, Beijing and Washington both expended considerable effort at these and other events throughout the reporting period fortifying and expanding their partnerships, even as many neighbors struggled not to choose sides or to keep a foot in both camps.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Partnerships, Strategic Competition, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1407. To Infinity and Beyond: Pixar’s Journey to Reinvent Animation

Author:: Helen Scantlebury and Christopher McKenna
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Oxford Centre for Global History
Abstract:: In 1923, a budding entrepreneur named Walt Disney left Kansas for Hollywood to create animated movies. Walt had worked as an advertising cartoonist but had little knowledge of the world of filmmaking. With the help of his brother Roy, he produced his first short animations via commissions from New York, but it was not a particularly lucrative business.1 The Disney brothers eventually made a deal with Universal Studios to produce an animated series with a new cartoon character named Oswald the Lucky Rabbit. The deal was a relatively small sideline for Universal, but it was a big break for the aspiring duo and their little team of animators. Walt was particularly excited to work on the Oswald cartoons—of the two brothers, he generally focused on creative elements while Roy focused on financial matters. When Walt and his chief animator presented their first short film to Universal, however, the studio sent them back to the drawing board. Undeterred, Walt reworked the character and in September 1927, Universal released the first Oswald short film. After that, Walt produced a fresh Oswald the Lucky Rabbit short every other week for distribution by Universal.2 Despite the consistent work, the Disney brothers repeatedly clashed with Universal, who eventually forced them out. However, Oswald had to stay behind. The brothers had sold Oswald’s copyrights to Universal, so they could not feature him in their future work. Walt never forgot losing control of Oswald, so when he started his next animation project, he secured all copyrights for his new main character: a charismatic mouse with large, distinctive ears who looked strikingly similar to Oswald. That mouse, of course, was Mickey Mouse, who made his first on screen appearance in November 1928.3 4 With Mickey and other popular characters, the Disney brothers found quick success on their own. Beginning in 1932, Walt won the Academy Award for Best Animated Short film for eight years in a row.5
Topic:: Media, Capitalism, Business, Pixar, and Animation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1408. The Apple of My Eye: A History of René Magritte’s, the Beatles’, and Steve Jobs’ Entwined Trademarks

Author:: Emma Day and Christopher McKenna
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Oxford Centre for Global History
Abstract:: Paul McCartney first saw the apple on his dining room table in the summer of 1967. Large, vivid green, with “Au Revoir” written across it, McCartney immediately considered the image of the fruit, painted by the Belgian graphic designer, René Magritte, a year earlier, to be iconic. As McCartney recalled, “This big green apple, which I still have now, became the inspiration for the logo” of the Beatles’ multimedia company, Apple Corps, that the band founded in 1968. McCartney and his three bandmates—John Lennon, George Harrison, and Ringo Starr—used Magritte’s apple image, a recurring theme in the artist’s work, as the starting point for their new company’s logo. Imitating Magritte’s style which presented familiar objects in strange and unexpected ways, they printed their small, green Granny Smith apple on records, CDs, and other merchandise.1 Remarkably, the marketing potential of Magritte’s apple image did not end there. Steve Jobs grew up listening to the Beatles. When the tech entrepreneur wanted to start his own company with the engineer, Steve Wozniak, he called it “Apple” in tribute to the band. The pair launched Apple Computer, with the logo of a small, rainbow coloured apple with a bite taken out of it, in 1976.2 But the Beatles did not want to share the apple branding and sued Apple Computer three times for trademark infringement. Over the course of the next three decades, the two companies fought for the right to use their version of the “Apple” name and logo. The recycled apple image that brought together a graphic designer, pop band, and computer company sat at the heart of an intellectual property battle defining computer and music innovation in the late twentieth and early twenty-first century.
Topic:: History, Arts, Capitalism, Symbolism, Beatles, Logo, René Magritte, Steve Jobs, and Trademarks
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1409. Guyana: Oil, Internal Disputes, the USA and Venezuela

Author:: Raphael Padula, Matheus de Freitas Cecílio, Igor Candido de Oliveira, and Caio Jorge Prado
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Guyana has a strategic geographic position in the Amazon and the Greater Caribbean area, as revealed in the strategic thinking and military presence of the United States (USA). Its territory also possesses abundant natural resources, especially after the recent and significant oil discoveries, having the American company ExxonMobil as protagonist. Meanwhile, the country is characterised by a domestic political and ethnic cleavage. In addition, Venezuela and Guyana are in a historical dispute for the Essequibo area, which is potentially endowed and surrounded by areas with strategic resources. The main argument of the paper is that the oil discoveries in Guyana are leading to geopolitical and geoeconomic impacts regarding the intensification of domestic and foreign disputes, involving American and Venezuelan interests and recent state actions. More broadly, it points out that the north of South America has become one of the stages of the global power strife, in view of the Sino-Russian and American presences, in a context of Brazil’s absence. To survey and evaluate the actors’ actions resulting from the oil findings in Guyana, the paper is based on geopolitical and geoeconomic concepts, energy data, specialised academic and journalistic bibliography.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Oil, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, Venezuela, Guyana, and United States of America

1410. Hegemony, consensus building, and pedagogical colonisation: new ways of external interference?

Author:: Camila Vidal
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This study is a theoretical effort to rethink International Relations from the perspective of Neo-Gramscian Critical Theory in which its empirical object is the US hegemony in the scope of Latin America. More specifically, this study refers to the fabrication of consensus directed by an American ruling class through its own vehicle for this – the Atlas Network – which finds legitimacy and support in its Latin American counterparts. Based on primary data, public documents, and specialised bibliography, this study aims to contribute to the rethinking of International Relations using this institute as an object of empirical relation to theoretical study. More than presenting domination strategies through private hegemony apparatus, this study encourages us to reflect on relatively forgotten (or marginalised) practices and concepts in International Relations, such as imperialism, hegemony, and the role of consensus building. Finally, from Critical Theory, it contributes to understand the role of ruling classes in the creation of consensus in subaltern countries and classes to maintain this same hegemonic structure.
Topic:: Hegemony, International Relations Theory, Consensus, and Critical Theory
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

1411. Forum on Rahul Rao’s Out of Time, Part I: Queer Mutations and Repressions

Author:: Emerson Maione and Renan Quinalha
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: In this Forum, six scholars reflect on Rahul Rao’s recent book Out of Time: The Queer Politics of Postcoloniality from other geographies, themes and radical possibilities. Part I offers dialogues with Out of Time from Trump’s USA and Brazil’s ‘hetero-military’ dictatorship and Portuguese colonial roots. Emerson Maione and Renan Quinalha explore how Rao’s elaborations of homonationalism, homocapitalism, homoromanticism and ‘pink-washing’ more generally travel in new contexts and how the ‘fetishization of law’ can mislead investigations of queer-, homo- and transphobias.
Topic:: Decolonization, LGBT+, Repression, Dictatorship, Queer Theory, Decriminalization, Colonization, and Homonationalism
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

1412. Sovereignty, Dignity, and Regionalism in the New International Order

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: This dossier analyses the growing fragility of the US-led ‘rules-based international order’ and examines the possibilities of regionalism to advance the construction of a new global system.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Capitalism, Regionalism, International Order, and Dignity
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1413. Eight Contradictions of the Imperialist ‘Rules-Based Order’

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: We are now entering a qualitatively new phase of world history. Significant global changes have emerged in the years since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. This can be seen in a new phase of imperialism and changes in the particularities of eight contradictions.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, Imperialism, Financial Crisis, Capitalism, Global South, Socialism, and International Order
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Global Focus, and United States of America

1414. Iran-US Relations in Light of the Confrontation Between Their Special Services

Author:: Vasil Ghlonti
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The dynamics of Iran-US relations in the last decade show that there are many ongoing challenges between them. What does Iran want and what is its attitude towards the USA? The political elite of Iran considers the USA to be its number one foreign threat, and seeks to expel it from the Middle East region in its entirety, and in this process, actively using the capabilities of its special services. Meanwhile, the USA considers Iran one of the main financiers of world terrorism and one of the main opponents to its state interests. The American goal is thus to neutralize the terrorist threat coming from Iran and to weaken it both in the region and abroad, and here also the American special services are actively involved. Against this background, there is both a secret and open war between Iran and the US special services, which has been gaining more and more scope in recent years. The purpose of our present work is to discuss and analyze the relations between the Iranian and US special services, and their role in the current political processes happening in the Middle East.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Confrontation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1415. Maui Wildfires: Opportunities and Lessons in Resiliency for the Pacific Region

Author:: Perry Arrasmith and Cameron Deptula
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The August 2023 Maui Wildfires wrought catastrophic damage on Maui and revealed a range of tragic vulnerabilities facing the State of Hawai‘i. A few early lessons from Hawai‘i’s experiences provide key insights for communities across the Indo-Pacific and should be harnessed to promote action to mitigate future disasters.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Disasters, Resilience, and Wildfires
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific, Hawaii, United States of America, and Maui

1416. Techno-Geopolitics and US Support for India’s Quantum Ambition

Author:: Vibhanshu Shekhar
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: US support would plug an important gap in India’s quest for quantum tech—access to a robust quantum ecosystem. This access is essential for the development of quantum research and technologies in India.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Quantum Computers, and Research and Development
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and United States of America

1417. The Evolution of the Partnership between NATO and Japan

Author:: Komei Isozaki
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In signing the ITTP, Japan has made it clear that it will organize, develop, and strengthen its existing relationship with NATO. This step further promotes the practical cooperation that Japan has advanced over the last decade.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, NATO, International Cooperation, Partnerships, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

1418. The Lobbying Battle for Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:: Ben Freeman and Artin DerSimonian
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Long before Azerbaijani forces took the Nagorno-Karabakh region by force in September — displacing 100,000 Karabakh Armenians in an act that’s been described as ethnic cleansing — Azerbaijan and Armenia were waging a furious lobbying and influence battle in Washington. A closer examination of the countries’ respective attempts to influence U.S. policymakers before the Second and Third Nagorno-Karabakh Wars provides critical context for understanding Washington’s muted reaction to Azerbaijan’s recent aggression, seemingly at odds with the strong moral position U.S. officials have taken over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Azerbaijan has spent years pursuing a course of “caviar diplomacy” in our nation’s capital: using the authoritarian petrostates’ wealth to court officials, journalists, and scholars. Since 2015, the government of Azerbaijan has spent just over $7 million on lobbying and public relations firms registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). Azerbaijan’s agents — like BGR Government Affairs — have conducted vigorous advocacy for Baku’s interests, including continued military assistance to Azerbaijan following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. Azerbaijan’s influence in the U.S. has also been aided considerably by Israel; Baku boasts powerful American-Israeli advocates like Ezra Friedlander as registered lobbyists for its interests. And this only constitutes what’s publicly known which, given Azerbaijan’s history, is likely just the tip of the iceberg. As the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) has painstakingly documented, the Azerbaijan government has a history of laundering its influence in Europe and the U.S. Azerbaijan’s extensive influence efforts in the U.S. stand in stark contrast to those of the Armenian interests which, until earlier this year, had not had a FARA registered lobbying or public relations firm on their payroll since 2020. Armenia has traditionally relied on its extensive diaspora to garner influence in the West, with repeated successes including a boycott of lobbying and PR firms working for Azerbaijan and President Biden’s recognition of the Armenian genocide. But as the negligible U.S. response to Azerbaijan’s use of military force in Nagorno-Karabakh shows, Washington’s perceived strategic interests continue to trump Armenians’ concerns. As the negligible U.S. response to Azerbaijan’s use of military force in Nagorno-Karabakh shows, Washington’s perceived strategic interests continue to trump Armenians’ concerns. U.S. officials’ overly-cautious and restrained reaction to the lightning offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh and the resulting mass exodus of Armenians from the region seems to reflect a stalemate in the lobbying and influence battle the two countries have been waging in the U.S; it may also be a product of the selective approach to human rights within U.S. foreign policy. No matter how one weighs the precise causes, the effect remains the same: a country used military might to reclaim its territory during a negotiating process, faced little consequences from the U.S., and seems emboldened to continue its aggression in an already volatile region. Time will tell the dangers of that decision.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Lobbying, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh

1419. The Conventional Wisdom About the Chinese Military Challenge: Incomplete and Unpersuasive

Author:: Steven Kosiak
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Now possessing the world’s largest economy and backed up by an increasingly capable military, in recent years China has grown into an ever more significant and complex concern for the United States, its friends and allies, and others in the Indo–Pacific region. It has become not only stronger and more capable but, in a variety of areas, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits, more assertive. In this light, it is only prudent that the United States remain engaged in the region and, along with its allies, maintain robust military capabilities. At the same time, however, it is difficult to understand some of the main features of what has emerged as the conventional wisdom concerning the magnitude, scope and shape of the challenge China represents, particularly in its military dimensions. Among other things, shortcomings in the conventional wisdom include the unsettling degree to which mainstream assessments of the Chinese military challenge have: • devoted enormous attention to various Taiwan contingencies and, by comparison, remarkably little attention to the Chinese military’s capacity — or lack thereof — to directly conquer or coerce any of the major powers in the region; • equated defending Taiwan, and other relatively small nearby economies, with preventing Chinese regional hegemony, without providing significant analytical support for the presumption; • argued that Taiwan is defensible, in part because of the vulnerability of seaborne invasion forces to precision-guided munitions, as well as the difficulties inherent strategies aimed at punishing adversaries into submission (e.g., through bombardment or blockade) — while seeming to ignore the logical inferences of those conclusions for the defensibility of the major powers in the region, which are larger, economically stronger and generally located much farther from China; • analogized the challenge posed by China today to the threats posed by Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in World War Two and the Soviet Union during the Cold War in ways that — because of differences in, among other things, geography, technology, nationalism, and China’s role in the global economy (including its great dependence on international trade) — may do more to obscure than illuminate the challenge. These analytical shortcomings need to be addressed through additional, more rigorous and better focused research and analysis. While clearly needed, however, it seems unlikely that this additional analysis will come close to fully redeeming the conventional wisdom about the Chinese military challenge as articulated today, including the necessity of some key components of the U.S. military’s existing force structure, modernization and other plans. Taken together, the gaps, weaknesses, blind spots, and analytical leaps upon which the conventional wisdom rests appear too pervasive and deep for such to be the case. Given this reality, rather than the current U.S. strategy, embracing something akin to the Active Denial strategy proposed by a Quincy Institute panel in 2022 would seem to represent a more prudent approach. 1 This strategy embraces some cuts to force structure — especially among ground forces — yielding significant budgetary savings. But it retrains robust air, naval and other forces that would leave the U.S. military with a powerful capacity to deter and, if need be, counter Chinese aggression in the Indo–Pacific and, specifically, to support key U.S. allies and friends in the region. And better addressing the areas noted above could go far towards facilitating the refinement of this more restrained strategy, and ensuring that it is both as effective as possible and can be supported at an affordable and sustainable price.
Topic:: Nationalism, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Influence, and Military
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, and United States of America

1420. March of the Four–Stars: The Role of Retired Generals and Admirals in the Arms Industry

Author:: William D. Hartung
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The revolving door between the U.S. government and the arms industry, which involves hundreds of senior Pentagon officials and military officers every year, generates the appearance — and in some cases the reality — of conflicts of interest in the making of defense policy and in the shaping of the size and composition of the Pentagon budget. This report looks at the post–government employment records of a subset of the larger flow of “revolvers”: four–star generals and admirals who retired between June 2018 and July 2023. Among the findings are the following: 26 of 32 four–star officers who retired after June 2018 — over 80 percent — went to work for the arms industry as board members, advisors, executives, consultants, lobbyists, or members of financial institutions that invest in the defense sector. The biggest category of post–retirement employment for four–stars, by far, was as board members or advisors for small and medium–sized arms contractors, with 15 choosing that option. This compares to five who became board members, advisors or executives for one of the top 10 arms contractors. Five retired four–stars became arms industry consultants, five became lobbyists for weapons companies, and four joined financial firms that make significant investments in the defense sector. This brief recommends a number of measures designed to limit undue influence and potential conflicts of interest on the part of retired four–star generals and other retired Pentagon officials and military officers who pass through the revolving door. Bar four–star officers from working for firms that receive $1 billion or more in Pentagon contracts per year. Extend “cooling off” periods before retired Pentagon officials and military officers can go to work on behalf of the arms industry. Increase transparency over post–government employment and activities on the part of retired Pentagon and military officials working on behalf of arms contractors, including reporting on their interactions with Congress and the executive branch. The most comprehensive current proposal to address the revolving door issue is Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Department of Defense Ethics and Anti-Corruption Act. 1 The bill would encompass many of the recommendations put forward in this report.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Industry, Military, and Military-Industrial Complex
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1421. A Bold Plan for Saving the Colorado River

Author:: Mark Squillace
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Heading into the 2022-2023 water year, the condition of the Colorado River looked dire. The water levels on the River’s two main reservoirs (also the two largest reservoirs in the United States)—Lake Powell and Lake Mead—had both plummeted to below 25 percent of the infrastructure’s capacity. The numerous smaller reservoirs in the Upper Basin had been drawn down substantially to bolster the supply at Lake Powell. Still, it seemed plausible that the power head at Lake Powell—a hydroelectric facility that serves as many as 5.5 million people in six states—would be lost sometime in the following year. The winter of 2022-2023 delivered a massive snowpack that brought wel- come, if temporary, relief from this ominous situation. But the River remains in a perilous state. Over the past two decades, water users have routinely consumed more than the system’s average annual production. One good water year does not change the scientific consensus that the Colorado River Basin will likely experience hotter, dryer weather in future decades due to climate change. Aver- age flows in the River system will likely continue to decline.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Rivers, and Resource Management
Political Geography:: North America, United States of America, and Colorado River

1422. CIA Director James R. Schlesinger and the End of Intelligence Exceptionalism

Author:: Loch K. Johnson
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is the United States’ most prominent secret service, referred to by insiders as simply “The Agency.” It is located at Langley, a 219-acre, leafy campus near the Potomac River in the McLean town- ship of Northern Virginia. This article examines the role of James R. Schlesinger at the Agency’s helm in 1973, and why his time as the United States’ spymaster was indelible even though he served only briefly in this position.
Topic:: Cold War, Intelligence, History, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and James R. Schlesinger
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1423. Trade Beyond Neoliberalism: Concluding a Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum

Author:: Trevor Sutton and Mike Williams
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: A proposed trade deal with the European Union offers a historic opportunity to align the global economy with climate action and the interests of workers—but only if Washington and Brussels can put aside their differences.
Topic:: Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Neoliberalism, Trade, Sustainability, and Metals
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

1424. Awareness of artificial intelligence: Diffusion of information about AI versus ChatGPT in the United States

Author:: Rajeev K. Goel and Michael A. Nelson
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper addresses the awareness about the artificial intelligence across states in the United States. We uniquely create indices of Google internet search results for general AI awareness and about ChatGPT, normalizing alternatively by internet users and land area. An understanding of the awareness about AI would provide useful insights into regulatory attempts to monitor and guard the AI technologies, besides suggesting alternatives for laggard states to catch up. Econometric results to explain the drivers of AI awareness show that, ceteris paribus, more prosperous states had greater awareness about AI and ChatGPT. On the other hand, states with greater economic freedom had a lower awareness. States with more men to women has lower AI awareness when hits were normalized by area, but the reverse was true when weighted by internet users. States with a higher proportion of the elderly population were no different from the other states, while those with greater urbanization had more AI/ChatGPT awareness when the internet hits were weighted by land area. Finally, states bordering Canada were no different from other states, while states bordering Mexico generally had a lower AI/ChatGPT awareness.
Topic:: Urbanization, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Digitalization, Gender, and ChatGPT
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1425. EU-China relations in an uncertain world: Walking a geopolitical tightrope

Author:: Sinikukka Saari, Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, and Mikael Mattlin
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: After the 2008 financial crisis, the EU’s approach towards China shifted from overconfidence in European normative power to an embrace of unconditional economic engagement with China. The EU policy of de-risking is critically important, but it needs to be carefully considered, managed, and communicated to China. US-China tensions and American debates on China impact the EU’s approach. Nevertheless, there are significant differences between European and US positions on China irrespective of which party holds power in the US. China’s position on Russia’s war of aggression is a make-or-break issue for the EU. By actively enabling Russia’s invasion, China is harming its own long-term interests in Europe and globally. It is in Europe’s interests to avoid framing current international dynamics in terms of “the West and the rest”. Although this discourse may be popular domestically, there is a danger of it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

1426. The 2024 elections in Russia, the EU, and the US: International implications and impacts on the war in Ukraine

Author:: Jussi Lassila, Maria Lindén, and Henrik Müller
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: In 2024, elections will be held in Russia, the European Union, and the United States. The elections will carry implications not only for the domestic politics of these three polities but also for the international arena, including the war in Ukraine. While the Russian presidential election lacks any democratic credibility, Vladimir Putin’s confirmation may encourage him to pursue an even more aggressive military policy. However, this would still be a domestic political risk, and Putin’s primary expectation is that Western aid to Ukraine will wane. The European Parliament elections are expected to result in a surge of far-right parties, but the EU’s decentralized power structures and consensus-based procedures make sudden political changes unlikely. Enlargement policy will be high on the EU’s agenda in the next legislative period. In the US, the presidential and congressional elections will see a clash between two very different visions for both domestic and foreign policy. The consequences will be drastically different depending on the outcome of the elections.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

1427. A shared EU-US economic agenda for the world: Engagement as an imperative

Author:: Lauri Tähtinen
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: It is time for the European Union and the United States to build a shared, positive economic agenda towards third countries. Such an agenda would build upon the bilateral relationship but not focus on it. It would still be shared, even if the parties may have distinct reasons for supporting different aspects of it. The first elements of a shared economic agenda are evident in the EU-US Trade and Technology Council projects for Jamaica and Kenya. However, the political window for further alignment between the US and the EU, as well as for European trade deals, may be closing in 2024. Future initiatives should take into account major economies such as Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia. The entry into force of the EU-Mercosur agreement should be a high-level priority for both Washington and Brussels. The current state of the EU-US relationship is characterized by a divergence in technology, industrial policy, and environmental policy. To move onto a path of convergence, Washington must reassess its exaggerated fears regarding the regulatory power of the EU, and use the spread of European standards as a means towards shared ends.
Topic:: Environment, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, and United States of America

1428. Taiwan's Security Future: How Domestic Politics Impact Taipei’s Defense

Author:: Ethan Kessler
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: With a presidential election fast approaching, Taipei’s defense policy could go in multiple directions. As China has grown more militarily capable and assertive under President Xi Jinping, Beijing’s promise to forcibly unify with Taiwan has increasingly worried both Taiwan and the United States. Beijing’s large-scale military exercise near Taiwan this fall underscores the role Taiwan’s own military capabilities play in deterring conflict in the Taiwan Strait. To that end, US policymakers have increased defense cooperation with Taiwan and urged Taipei to do more for its defense in recent years. However, whether Taipei will stick to the defense policies implemented under current president Tsai Ing-wen is uncertain. This coming January, Taiwan’s voters will select a new president. Currently leading the polls is Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is committed to Taiwan’s sovereignty and views Taiwan as effectively already independent. Beijing has angrily decried this position and boycotted talks with Taipei as long as the DPP remains in power. Meanwhile, the path ahead for the Kuomintang (KMT), the primary opposition party, is riven with internal fissures. The party has traditionally sought closer economic and cultural ties with Beijing to defuse tensions—something it seems uniquely qualified for, since the PRC will not talk to the current DPP government. Yet emphasizing dialogue with an increasingly aggressive PRC, especially after Xi’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s limited self-government in 2020, has soured many voters on the KMT’s message. In response, reformers in the party have suggested a new direction more closely aligned with the DPP on national security to win back moderate voters, while traditionalists have doubled down on the old promise of peace through dialogue. This latter path would be worrying for the Biden administration, which has increased arms sales to Taipei and presided over a period of worsening US-China mistrust. US concerns are a helpful reminder that, whether discussing Taiwan’s future or the risk of a catastrophic cross-Strait war, Taiwan’s own politics cannot be ignored. The rigor of Taipei’s defense—and, with it, the health of cross-Strait deterrence—will depend largely on the course Taiwan’s politics take.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Elections, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, East Asia, and United States of America

1429. China Maritime Report No. 33: China's Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent: Organizational, Operational, and Strategic Implications

Author:: David C. Logan
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: China’s development of a credible sea-based deterrent has important implications for the PLAN, for China’s nuclear strategy, and for U.S.-China strategic stability. For the PLAN, the need to protect the SSBN force may divert resources away from other missions; it may also provide justification for further expansion of the PLAN fleet size. For China’s nuclear strategy and operations, the SSBN force may increase operational and bureaucratic pressures for adopting a more forward-leaning nuclear strategy. For U.S.-China strategic stability, the SSBN force will have complex effects, decreasing risks that Chinese decisionmakers confront use-or-lose escalation pressures, making China less susceptible to U.S. nuclear threats and intimidation and therefore perceiving lower costs to conventional aggression, and potentially introducing escalation risks from conventional-nuclear entanglement to the maritime domain.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Navy, Maritime, Deterrence, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

1430. The Role of the Geopolitical Position of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Towards American Foreign Policy from 1990 to 2017

Author:: Ala Alkhawaldeh, Mohammad Ahmad Nayef Alakash, Hani A. M. Akho-Rashida, Ziad Mohammad Al Wahshat, and Mohammad Saleh Bani Issa
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The role of the geopolitical location of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan towards United States (US) foreign policy from 1990 to 2017 is the focus of this study, which addressed the impact of important regional and international political events, positively or negatively, on the development of relations between the two countries in terms of political and security aspects. The study adopted a qualitative approach, and primary data was collected through interviews with 16 participants from political, economic, and security experts in Jordan and the US. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the data obtained. The study concluded that US foreign policy recognizes Jordan as a close ally and considers its stability extremely important; Jordan has a suitable location to defend Israel because critical Arab countries surround it, and Jordan enjoys a unique geographical location in the Middle East. Some political events play an essential role in US foreign policy concerning security aid to Jordan, as the US links its aid to Jordan to political events.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Jordan, and United States of America

1431. Betting on Black Gold: Oil Speculation and U.S. Inflation (2020-2022)

Author:: Carlotta Breman and Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Sharp increases in systemically important crude oil prices have been a major cause of the recent surge in the inflation rate in the U.S. This paper investigates the extent to which the increase in oil prices can be attributed to excessive speculation in the oil futures market. Our analysis suggests that excessive speculation in the crude oil market has been responsible for 24%-48% of the increase in the WTI crude oil price during October 2020-June 2022. These estimates translate into an oil price increase of around $18-$36 per barrel and an increase in the U.S. PCE inflation rate by circa 0.75 to 1.5 percentage points during the same period. We complement the analysis with an empirical investigation of the crude oil market which shows that (speculative) long non-commercial open-interest positions in oil futures have increased considerably relative to short non-commercial positions. We further find that higher futures prices for crude oil ‘Granger-cause’ oil spot prices, the futures prices of corn and soybeans and the fertilizer price. These econometric results show that oil speculators have to be held accountable for not just raising oil prices, but also driving up food commodity prices. We finally discuss measures to clamp down on excessive speculation in oil in order to eliminate its systemically adverse consequences for the U.S. economy.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Oil, Inflation, and Speculation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1432. Is “Inflation First” Really “Rentiers First”? The Taylor Rule and Rentier Income in Industrialized Countries

Author:: Mario Seccareccia and Guillermo Matamoros Romero
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The Taylor rule has returned as a significant policy guide amid increasingly overt political pressures for its official (and not just its implicit) adoption at the US Fed as inflation fears have come to dominate monetary policy actions both in the US and internationally in recent times. Our paper analyzes the effect of monetary policy on the functional distribution of income by reconstructing how the post-1970s “inflation first” policy commitments of central banks came to be crystallized in the Taylor rule. While there are differences among the various specifications of this “rule”, the Taylor relation is merely an offshoot of what can be described generically as the family of Wicksellian reaction functions whose implications support rentier income over time. Because of the internal logic of the Taylor rule, this has led to different interpretations such as, for example, the more Keynesian Yellen rule, which depart from the strict sense of the Taylor rule. The paper also interprets the Taylor Rule in light of Wicksell’s formulation and analyzes the potential consequence of the differences. In contrast to the strict Wicksell rule of “proportional” adjustment, our econometric findings suggest evidence that central banks adjust “over-proportionally” the benchmark money interest rate in the presence of changes in the inflation rate for the complete “inflation first” era since the 1970s until the COVID-19 crisis. They thereby strongly favored rentier incomes in their reaction functions, with the possible exception of the post-financial crisis period. To limit the pro-rentier consequences of such inflation-targeting regimes, it is important that policymakers mandate multiple objectives for central banks, as exemplified in the current US Fed’s dual mandate.
Topic:: Economics, Inflation, Industrialization, and Rentierism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1433. Precedents, Instruments and Targets that the Fed Has Used to Create and Support a Postcrisis Global Safety Net

Author:: Edward J. Kane
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Much has been made of the Global Safety Net that has been put into place since the Great Financial Crisis but the distributional effects of some of the Fed’s strategies are still shrouded in mystery. In supplying bailout funds at below-market terms to uninsured creditors of firms and governments that were economically insolvent, the Fed reinforced the implicit expectation that megabanks are free to take on high levels of risk and benefit from the upside while being protected from any serious downside. An important example of this is the role of currency swaps. By extending its “temporary” dollar swap lines with other central banks, including the European Central Bank, “until further notice” the Fed broadcasted its intention to act as the financial world’s “liquidity provider” of last resort. The “liquidity” support provided by the Fed to megabanks through cross-border lending in fact acted as subsidies, the costs of which were borne by ordinary US citizens. This is just one piece of an unacknowledged game plan of building global strategies of crisis prevention and crisis management based on misdirection and piles of bullsh*t.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, Central Bank, and Safety Net
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1434. Withdraw U.S. troops from Syria and Iraq

Author:: Daniel Depetris
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The war between Israel and Hamas has increased the threat to U.S. troops in the Middle East, particularly for the 3,400 personnel in Syria and Iraq. Since October 7, 2023, dozens of U.S. troops have been injured in attacks perpetrated by Iran-backed Shia militias in both countries, at times resulting in U.S. retaliatory strikes. Defensive measures and luck have prevented U.S. fatalities thus far. But U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq are at significant risk as long as they remain deployed there. If a U.S. ground presence served a core security interest, that risk might be reasonable. But there is no good reason to risk U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq, where ISIS’s capabilities have been degraded, capable local actors eagerly hunt the group’s remnants, and the United States can still strike from long distance, if necessary, without local bases. Instead of enhancing U.S. security, the U.S. force presence in Syria and Iraq pointlessly risks war with Iran. Sending additional troops to the Middle East compounds the problem and grants U.S. adversaries in the region added leverage by giving them the ability to threaten U.S. forces. The added danger to U.S. forces is one more reason to withdraw from Syria and Iraq as a step toward de-prioritizing the Middle East more generally.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

1435. US-Japan-Taiwan Dialogue: Deterrence Signaling, Domestic Politics, Defense Cooperation, and War Termination

Author:: Michael Beckley
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: The risk of a war over Taiwan is higher today than at any time in the past half-century. Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping has declared that Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland is an “inevitable requirement” for the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and “should not be passed down generation after generation.” Yet peaceful means of reunification have all but disappeared because most Taiwanese are more determined than ever to maintain their de facto independence. This stance threatens China’s territorial integrity, as defined by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Xi’s legitimacy as top leader. In response, China is brandishing its military option. Over the past three years, it has conducted the largest and most provocative show of force in the Taiwan Strait in a generation. Chinese military patrols, some involving a dozen warships and more than fifty combat aircraft, menace Taiwan almost daily and often simulate attacks on Taiwanese, Japanese, or US targets. Meanwhile, China has been amassing ships, aircraft, and missiles as part of the largest military buildup by any country in decades. Its military budget increased tenfold from 1990 to 2020. From 2020 to 2023, it doubled the size of its nuclear arsenal. China now militarily outspends every other country in Asia combined. It wields the world’s largest ballistic missile inventory and navy by number of ships. Moreover, Beijing has become increasingly belligerent in its relations with neighbors from Japan to India. The United States has tried to deter Chinese aggression by declaring its support for Taiwan. But it is no longer clear that the US military could immediately respond to a Chinese assault on the island. Historically, the United States has relied on its manufacturing prowess to outproduce adversaries after a war starts. But now that China is the world’s leading manufacturing nation by output, it is possible that both sides could sustain a protracted conventional war—and might be tempted to break the stalemate by using nuclear weapons against military targets. These dangerous trends make deterrence and defense cooperation among the United States, Japan, and Taiwan extremely important. Toward that end, the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) convened a US-Japan-Taiwan Track 2 dialogue in November 2023 to discuss deterrence and defense cooperation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Deterrence, Dialogue, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Japan, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

1436. Reinforcing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Diplomacy and Deterrence in the Pivotal Year of 2022

Author:: James J Przystup
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: On February 24, 2022, Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine presented the world with a dramatic challenge to the rules-based international order. Ukraine’s fierce and continuing resistance has earned the backing of Western democracies. Under the leadership of the United States, democracies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific have rallied to provide political, diplomatic, and military support to Ukraine. As of this writing, despite difficult coordination on sensitive military issues, that unity remains intact. In the Indo-Pacific, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought preexisting security challenges into sharper relief. Across the region, security concerns were heightened and acquired greater definition in the Taiwan Strait and on the Korean Peninsula. More broadly, Russia’s aggression called into question the staying power of the rules-based international order and, at the same time, raised recognition of the inseparable nature of that order. As the United Kingdom’s former Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told the Atlantic Council on March 10, “conflict anywhere threatens security everywhere. Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security are indivisible.”1 This study begins with a consideration of the Indo-Pacific security environment as it evolved during 2022. It goes on to consider the measures by key regional actors—primarily but not exclusively the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, and India—that strengthened deterrence in the face of an increasingly challenging environment. Expanding diplomatic coordination and security cooperation reflects a strategic commitment by the region’s democracies to support a rules-based order and advance a shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. At the same time, European democracies have continued to expand diplomatic and security engagement with Indo-Pacific partners. The policy challenge for the United States and Western democracies has been to resist Russia’s aggression in Europe in support of the rules-based international order and, at the same time in the Indo-Pacific, to strengthen deterrence against the use of force or coercion to change the status quo.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Deterrence, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1437. Make Russia Pay: The Case for Seizing Russia’s Sovereign Assets

Author:: Nate Sibley
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The United States, the European Union, and their international partners acted swiftly in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, imposing sanctions on more than $300 billion of Russian sovereign assets. As the war enters its third year, more individuals and organizations are calling on the US and its partners to confiscate these frozen funds and repurpose them for Ukraine’s assistance and reconstruction needs. The cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction is currently estimated at around $400 billion, though this number increases daily with every new act of Russian destruction. After initial hesitation within the Biden administration and among its G7 partners, support for this proposal is reportedly growing—especially as further assistance for Ukraine encounters headwinds in the divided US Congress. Below are some key takeaways from a recent Hudson Institute discussion with Senator Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, on making Russia pay for its crimes against Ukraine.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Corruption, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Sovereign Assets
Political Geography:: Russia and United States of America

1438. A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Utopia?

Author:: Pierre Goldschmidt
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: Earlier this summer, well before Hamas launched its raids against Israel, Pierre Goldschmidt, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) former Deputy Director for Safeguards, sent me an analysis of how to approach creating a nuclear weapons free zone in the Middle East. I agreed to publish it along with a commentary by Ariel Levite, the former Deputy Director of Israel’s Atomic Energy Commission. The result is the attached occasional paper, “A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Utopia?” The greater Middle East is at a critical juncture. Either the number of states in the region having nuclear weapons or nuclear weapons options will grow or the number will be frozen and decline. Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Turkey, Egypt, and Algeria will either become Israel’s nuclear equal (or come within weeks of doing so) or they will forgo the option. In any case, creating a nuclear weapons free zone in the region has been promoted for nearly a half-century and is sure to be an issue in the upcoming Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference and Preparatory Committee meetings scheduled through 2026. Yet, many analysts have dismissed going to zero nuclear weapons in the region as being unrealistic. Certainly, with Israel so embattled, any movement toward creating a zone now will take even longer. On the other hand, current developments suggest time may not be on our side. Less than a month after Hamas’ first incursions, not one, but two elected Israeli parliamentarians, including a junior member of Israel’s cabinet, publicly recommended Israel use its nuclear weapons against Hamas in Gaza. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince has fielded growing concerns that Iran might quickly get nuclear weapons by repeating his earlier public threat to acquire nuclear weapons if Tehran does. In an effort to deflect this threat and to “stabilize” the region, the Biden Administration wants the Saudis to join the Abraham Accords. As a part of any such deal, the Crown Prince, though, has demanded that the United States green-light Saudi efforts to pursue a “peaceful” uranium enrichment program. This would effectively give the Kingdom a nuclear weapons option and would catalyze nuclear hedging throughout the greater Middle East. It’s unclear if such racing can be curbed. Pierre Goldschmidt lays out an alternative incremental approach toward creating a weapons free zone in the region. Ariel Levite clarifies many of the serious reservations about proceeding now that most Israelis would likely have. Each makes points worth our attention. The hurdles are real but so are the risks of not trying to surmount them.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

1439. Strategic Empathy: Examining Pattern Breaks to Better Understand Adversaries’ Acquisition, Threat, and Use of Strategic Weapons

Author:: Sarah Bidgood, Robert Carlin, Siegfried S. Hecker, Jim Lamson, and Hanna Notte
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: Drawing from the work of Zachary Shore and others, we define strategic empathy as “the sincere effort to identify and assess the genuine patterns of an adversary’s acquisition, threat of use, and use of strategic weapons and the underlying drivers and constraints that shape them.” This concept encapsulates a mindset, a lens, and an approach that help us to understand an adversary’s strategic thinking. In the context of this study, we apply strategic empathy as a tool to examine U.S. adversaries’ policies and actions concerning the acquisition, threat, and use of strategic weapons. It is important to clarify that strategic empathy is not synonymous with sympathy or agreement with the adversary’s viewpoint, nor does it seek to excuse or justify its actions. Instead, it operates on a policy “agnostic” basis, facilitating a more holistic, nuanced understanding of the adversary that can inform strategies of coercion, cooperation, or a mix of both, depending on the circumstances. In this study, our approach for conducting case studies was primarily rooted in Zachary Shore’s book, A Sense of the Enemy: The High Stakes History of Reading Your Rival’s Mind, which focuses on examining what Shore terms “pattern breaks.” These pattern breaks encompass surprising or shocking, high-impact occurrences, and can be either events that affect an adversary or behaviors by the adversary itself. We apply this approach to examining eight pattern breaks for Russia, North Korea, and Iran related to their acquisition, threat, and use of strategic weapons. The aim of these case studies is to shed light on the adversaries’ patterns related to strategic weapons and the underlying drivers and constraints that shape them. Through this approach, strategic empathy offers a valuable tool, but it is not intended as a stand-alone approach. Rather, it offers a complementary perspective to other analytical approaches. It is also not intended as a causal theoretical framework but rather an alternative lens that can contribute to a more holistic and nuanced understanding of the adversary.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Strategic Empathy
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, North Korea, Global Focus, and United States of America

1440. Dangerous Decline: Russia’s Military and Security Influence in the Global South and the Implications for the United States

Author:: Hanna Notte
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: This study argues that Russia seeks to boost its military and security influence in the Global South in light of what it considers a protracted, systemic confrontation with Western states. Russia’s capacity to accrue such influence will vary considerably by domain and country. The war against Ukraine and its effects on Russia’s economy, technology base, and reputation are shaping demand and supply side factors—what states in the Global South want from Russia, and what Russia can offer. Though Russian power projection in the Global South will be limited, the impact of Moscow’s actions on U.S. strategic interests will not be trivial.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Nonproliferation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, United States of America, and Global South

1441. Border Apprehensions and Federal Sentencing of Hispanic Citizens in the United States

Author:: Simone Bertolia, Morgan Laouenan, and Jerome Valette
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: We provide evidence that Hispanic citizens receive significantly longer sentences than non-Hispanic citizens in the Federal Criminal Justice System in the United States when a higher number of illegal aliens are apprehended along the southwest border. Apprehensions can increase the salience of Hispanic ethnic identity, which is associated with persistent negative stereotypes, and can also deteriorate attitudes toward Hispanics. We rule out concerns that apprehensions might convey legally relevant information to judges. Thus, we provide direct evidence for time-varying discrimination toward Hispanic defendants. Our estimated effect is only at play for defendants without a heavy previous criminal record.
Topic:: Immigration, Ethnicity, Discrimination, Identity, Attitudes, and Salience
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1442. Interview with Ambassador Edward Djerejian

Author:: Christian Allard and Nick Vargish
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Ambassador Edward Djerejian has served as an important thought leader for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Both as Ambassador to Syria and Israel and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs in the 1990s, Ambassador Djerejian was a vital participant in the Arab-Israeli peace process and was also deeply involved with the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. He also presented a coherent vision of how the U.S. should balance the goals of democracy in the Middle East by proclaiming in his Meridian House speech in 1992 that America would not be for “one vote, one person, one time.” This winter, as a Senior Fellow at HKS Belfer Center’s MEI, Ambassador Djerejian sat down with JMEPP editors Nick Vargish and Christian Allard to discuss pressing issues in the Arab World and the prospects for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Interview
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

1443. The Trilateral Security Dialogue, Defence Cooperation, & Artificial Intelligence

Author:: Aiden Warren, Charles T. Hunt, and Matthew Warren
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This report investigates the prospects and difficulties of enhancing AI cooperation among Australia, Japan, and the United States under the Trilateral Security Dialogue (TSD) framework. Significant overlap in national AI objectives and vision, along with shared understandings of global AI competition and the security implications of AI development, exist among the TSD members. Insights from consultations and workshops with various stakeholders in Washington D.C. reveal a strong appetite for further cross-border collaboration in AI. However, several challenges persist across common standards, interoperability, trust, awareness, export control regimes, and data governance. The report, the first in a series, outlines key areas for building a robust and resilient AI partnership that can address the security challenges and opportunities in the Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: Japan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1444. Will DACA Recipients Return to Their Birth Countries If DACA Is Ended?

Author:: Robert Courtney Smith
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Will recipients of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) leave the United States if a legal challenge succeeds in ending this important program? The fate of over 600,000 current DACA recipients may depend on answers to this question in one expert report and one online survey question, which a Texas District Court found to show “a quantifiable percentage” would leave. Had the District Court in its DACA ruling not credited these sources, Texas’ lawsuit could have collapsed, and DACA would persist. The issue of whether DACA recipients will leave if DACA is ended will matter as this case is litigated, most likely to be decided by the Supreme Court. Drawing on research on immigrant return, DACA recipients, survey questions, priming, and intention-behavior gap, this paper argues that this expert report and the single online survey question used by the District Court cannot support the inferences regarding the return of DACA recipients to their birth countries. Rather, relevant research points toward DACA recipients staying in the United States, even if DACA were terminated. The paper recommends offering DACA recipients and long term undocumented residents a short path to legal status and citizenship, reassessing whether these two sources can support the conclusions drawn by the District Court; and analyzing the benefits accruing from DACA to Texas and all Texans, including US citizen children of DACA recipients, in assessing the claimed injury to the state.
Topic:: Migration, Supreme Court, Deportation, and DACA
Political Geography:: North America, Texas, and United States of America

1445. An Analysis of Trends in the US Undocumented Population Since 2011 and Estimates of the Undocumented Population for 2021

Author:: Robert Warren
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: In 2021, the undocumented population residing in the United States (US) increased slightly to 10.3 million, compared to 10.2 million the previous year. The gradual decline or near-zero growth of this population has continued for more than a decade. However, the large increases in apprehensions at the southern border in recent years, along with continued legislative gridlock in Congress, could portend a new era of growth of this population. Unfortunately, the data needed to determine whether the population will enter a period of growth after 2021 — or whether the era of near-zero growth will continue — will not be available for at least a year or two. The most accurate demographic estimates of the undocumented population are derived from data collected in the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Estimates of the size of the undocumented population in 2022 will not be available until early 2024. This report focuses on the most significant trend in the undocumented population in the past decade — the remarkable decline of 1.9 million in the undocumented population from Mexico from 2011 to 2021. The decline for Mexico in this period was 600,000 more than the total population increase from the seven countries (in order) with the fastest growing US undocumented populations: Guatemala, Honduras, India, Venezuela, El Salvador, Brazil, and China. This paper finds that: • The long-term decline, or near-zero growth, of the total undocumented population that began in 2008 continued in 2021. • The percent of undocumented residents in the total US population declined from 3.8 percent in 2011 to 3.1 percent in 2021. • The undocumented population from Mexico declined from 6.4 million in 2011 to 4.4 million in 2021, a drop of 1.9 million in 10 years. • A total of 2.9 million, or 47 percent, of the US undocumented population from Mexico in 2011 had left the undocumented population by 2021. • The drop in the undocumented population from Mexico from 2011 to 2021 occurred nationwide, and the decline affected the undocumented population in nearly every state. • The fastest growing undocumented populations by country in the last 10 years were from Guatemala, Honduras, India, El Salvador, Venezuela, and Brazil. The combined undocumented populations from these six countries grew by 1.2 million. • Countries that had declining populations after 2011 included Poland, Peru, Ecuador, Korea, and Philippines, in addition to the large drop for Mexico. • California had the largest decline in undocumented residents — 665,000 from 2011 to 2021. The undocumented population from Mexico living in California during this period declined by 720,000. • The combined undocumented population in California, New York, and Illinois fell by more than one million from 2021 to 2011.
Topic:: Migration, Data, Undocumented Population, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

1446. Access to Justice, the Rule of Law, and Due Process in the US Immigration System: A Tribute to Juan Osuna

Author:: Donald Kerwin
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: This paper introduces a special collection of papers on access to justice, the rule of law, and due process in the US immigration system. The collection honors Juan Osuna, a devoted public servant and former director of the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR), which is the agency in the US Department of Justice (DOJ) that administers the Immigration Courts, the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA), and legal orientation, assistance, and representation programs. The collection consists of five articles published in the Journal on Migration and Human Security and six CMS essays, written by some of Osuna’s close colleagues and friends. Section I provides a brief biography of Juan Osuna’s life, recites his titles and professional accomplishments, and outlines his views on some of the topics covered in the papers. The section draws heavily from two events that book-ended Osuna’s tenure as EOIR Director, which were organized by the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS). The first took place on February 16, 20121 and the second on July 18, 2017,2 just before Osuna’s untimely death at the age of 54 on August 15, 2017. This section also includes remembrances and reflections from Osuna’s colleagues at a November 15, 2018 event in Washington, DC, devoted to honoring his legacy.3 Section II summarizes the 11 papers in this collection, which reflect Juan Osuna’s commitment to humanizing the law and its fair application to all. The papers examine and propose ways to strengthen: • The nation’s response to large-scale migration. • The US asylum system. • The removal adjudication system. • Immigration Court backlog reduction efforts. • The treatment of survivors of human trafficking and modern-day slavery. • Due process for immigrants through legal representation. Section III offers a concluding reflection on the rule of law, and Juan Osuna’s legacy in a time of political division and discord.
Topic:: Immigration, Courts, Rule of Law, Asylum, and Due Process
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1447. The US Immigration Courts, Dumping Ground for the Nation’s Systemic Immigration Failures: The Causes, Composition, and Politically Difficult Solutions to the Court Backlog

Author:: Donald Kerwin and Richard Millet
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: The US immigration court system seeks to “fairly, expeditiously, and uniformly administer and interpret US immigration laws” (DOJ 2022a). It represents the first exposure of many immigrants to due process and the rule of law in the United States, and occupies an integral role in the larger US immigration system. Yet it labors under a massive backlog of pending cases that undermines its core goals and objectives. The backlog reached 1.87 million cases in the first quarter of FY 2023 (Straut-Eppsteiner 2023, 6). This paper attributes the backlog to systemic failures in the broader immigration system that negatively affect the immigration courts, such as: • Visa backlogs, United States Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) application processing delays, and other bottlenecks in legal immigration processes. • The immense disparity in funding between the court system and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agencies that feed cases into the courts. • The failure of Congress to pass broad immigration reform legislation that could ease pressure on the enforcement and court systems. • The lack of standard judicial authorities vested in Immigration Judges (IJs), limiting their ability to close cases; pressure parties to “settle” cases; and manage their dockets. • The absence of a statute of limitations for civil immigration offenses. • Past DHS failures to establish and adhere to enforcement priorities and to exercise prosecutorial discretion (PD) throughout the removal adjudication process, including in initial decisions to prosecute. • The location of the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR), which oversees US immigration courts, within the nation’s preeminent law enforcement agency, the Department of Justice (DOJ). • The misconception of many policymakers that the court system should primarily serve as an adjunct to DHS. • A past record of temporary judge reassignments and government shutdowns. The paper supports a well-resourced and independent immigration court system devoted to producing the right decisions under the law. Following a short introduction, a long section on “Causes and Solutions to the Backlog” examines the multi-faceted causes of the backlog, and offers an integrated, wide-ranging set of recommendations to reverse and ultimately eliminate the backlog. The “Conclusion” summarizes the paper’s topline findings and policy proposals.
Topic:: Immigration, Courts, Asylum, and Visa
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1448. Concurrent Displacements: Return, Waiting for Asylum, and Internal Displacement in Northern Mexico

Author:: Isabel Gil-Everaert, Claudia Masferrer, and Guadalupe González Chávez
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: This paper explores the ways in which contemporary mobility dynamics in Mexico have changed over the last decade, leading to protracted displacement. It focuses on three populations: (1) the internally displaced due to violence; (2) Mexican nationals returning from the United States, both voluntarily and due to deportation; and (3) populations seeking asylum in Mexico and the United States. These three populations are not usually analyzed together and do not squarely fall under the traditional legal definitions. The paper outlines ways that situations of protracted displacement and insecurity present challenges in four interconnected arenas of life: housing, legal status, employment, and emotional well-being. For governments and local communities, protracted displacement requires immediate humanitarian responses and the development and implementation of public policies focused on integration. The paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations based on its findings.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Asylum, Deportation, and Internal Displacement
Political Geography:: Central America, Mexico, and United States of America

1449. Finding Firmer Ground: The Role of High Technology in U.S.-China Relations

Author:: Sara Hsu, Ja Ian Chong, Rorry Daniels, Hargisl Shirley Martey, and John Lee
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: The latest installment in the Finding Firmer Ground report series examines how technological advancements have increased distrust and uncertainty in U.S.-China relations. From big data to semiconductors, the multiauthor report looks into the geopolitical implications of technological development and what strategies, if any, policymakers in the United States and China can take to mitigate tensions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1450. Effectiveness of Humanitarian Exceptions to Sanctions:

Author:: Erica Moret
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: The adoption of several humanitarian carveouts under several Syria-related autonomous sanctions regimes – in response to February 2023’s devastating earthquake – has been strongly welcomed by the humanitarian community. The exceptions adopted by the United States (US), European Union (EU), United Kingdom (UK), and Switzerland are designed to facilitate transactions in relation to relief efforts and the purchase of oil and petroleum-related products in Syria, particularly by humanitarian actors. They differ in terms of scope of activities authorized, breadth of actors covered, and their duration. This article seeks to map the main characteristics of each exception and assesses them in terms of benefits, ongoing challenges, and areas for potential improvement to inform future sanctions policies.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Sanctions, European Union, Earthquake, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, Syria, Switzerland, and United States of America

1451. Out of the Box: How to Rebalance U.S. Somalia Policy

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: U.S. President Joe Biden promised to end the “forever wars” launched after the 9/11 attacks. In Somalia, however, his administration has reinvigorated a flawed military-first approach to battling Islamist militants. Washington should complement those efforts with others aimed at stabilisation and political reconciliation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, Islamism, Reconciliation, and Stabilization
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, Somalia, and United States of America

1452. Sanctions, Peacemaking and Reform: Recommendations for U.S. Policymakers

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The U.S. is levying sanctions more than ever to hold warring parties accountable, restrict their access to resources and nudge them toward negotiations. Yet these measures can have unintended ill effects. Washington should take additional steps to alleviate these problems.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Reform, Negotiation, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1453. Preventing War in the Taiwan Strait

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The danger of armed confrontation over Taiwan is growing, raising the spectre of a direct conflict between China and the U.S. that would have severe global repercussions. Managing this risk will require the parties to rebuild trust by shoring up decades-old understandings.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, Risk, and Coercion
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, United States of America, and Taiwan Strait

1454. Bottleneck of the Americas: Crime and Migration in the Darién Gap

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Migrants from far and wide are trekking northward through the Darién Gap, a dense jungle where they face dangers including criminal predation. Steps to improve law enforcement, ease crises in countries of origin and provide more humanitarian aid would push policy in the right direction.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Law Enforcement, Human Trafficking, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, United States of America, and Darién Gap

1455. Despite its failure, Oslo process contributed to our national security

Author:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: At a heavy cost in blood, the Israeli public and its leadership now realize the reality that has been demonstrated time and again: the struggle cannot be resolved in the foreseeable future.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, History, Oslo Accords, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

1456. Israel must enhance its strategic value to the US

Author:: Efraim Inbar and Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The material and political support of the United States is an essential pillar in the national security of Israel.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Strategic Interests, and Military Aid
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

1457. A Christian Nation? Understanding the Threat of Christian Nationalism to American Democracy and Culture

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: The rising influence of Christian nationalism in some segments of American politics poses a major threat to the health of our democracy. Increasingly, the major battle lines of the culture war are being drawn between a right animated by a Christian nationalist worldview and Americans who embrace the country’s growing racial and religious diversity. This new PRRI/Brookings survey of more than 6,000 Americans takes a closer look at the underpinnings of Christian nationalism, providing new measures to estimate the proportion of Americans who adhere to and reject Christian nationalist ideology. The survey also examines how Christian nationalist views intersect with white identity, anti-Black sentiment, support of patriarchy, antisemitism, anti-Muslim sentiments, anti-immigrant attitudes, authoritarianism, and support for violence. Additionally, the survey explores the influence Christian nationalism has within our two primary political parties and major religious subgroups and what this reveals about the state of American democracy and the health of our society.
Topic:: Religion, Democracy, Survey, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1458. Abortion Attitudes in a Post-Roe World: Findings From the 50-State 2022 American Values Atlas

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In late June 2022, the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson overturned Roe v. Wade, reversing nearly five decades of precedent that had established a national right to abortion access. Republican-majority legislatures in several states had been chipping away at abortion rights for the past several years through increasingly strict regulations, but the Dobbs decision suddenly changed the policy landscape regarding reproductive rights, catapulting abortion to the forefront of American politics. The immediate impact of repealing Roe v. Wade was that control over abortion law reverted to the states. Some states had “trigger laws” in place to immediately impose abortion restrictions in the event that Roe was overturned, while others had protections in place to keep abortion policy as it was under Roe. In other states, lawmakers went to work crafting legislation in response to Dobbs. As of January 2023, the New York Times reports, 13 states have full abortion bans, some of which allow for exceptions if the life of the mother is in danger and in cases of rape or incest, and Georgia has a 6-week ban in place.[1] According to the Guttmacher Institute, abortion-access laws vary widely in the rest of the country, but all other states allow abortions at least up to 15 weeks into pregnancy.[2] Some state abortion laws have been challenged in court, and access has changed as court orders blocking or allowing restrictions have been put in place or lifted. Republicans in some states have made efforts to restrict reproductive rights a step further, pushing legislation that would limit people’s ability to receive abortion pills by mail or cross state lines to get abortion services, and would even label some forms of birth control as abortifacients.[3] Beginning in March 2022 and throughout the rest of the year, PRRI surveyed Americans about their views on abortion legality and related issues as part of our American Values Atlas. The scope of the project allows us to report results on some questions for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In general, we found that most Americans support abortion legality in most or all cases and oppose the overturn of Roe. This report delves into the political, religious, and demographic correlates of various opinions on abortion access.
Topic:: Health, Politics, Religion, Survey, Reproductive Health, and Abortion
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1459. Religion and Congregations in a Time of Social and Political Upheaval

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: The religious landscape of the United States has changed dramatically in the past few decades as the country has become more demographically diverse, more Americans than ever have disaffiliated with organized religion, and religious leaders have faced a cultural milieu increasingly polarized along racial and political lines. Churches are also transitioning back to in-person services following the COVID-19 pandemic and dealing with ongoing ripple effects from other major events, including national protests for racial justice, a divisive 2020 presidential election that resulted in a deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, and renewed state legislative battles over reproductive and LGBTQ rights. This new survey examines the religious behaviors of Americans amid this uncertain cultural and political landscape. In addition to highlighting religious affiliation trends, we consider the importance of religion to Americans and look at how often they attend church and engage in religious activities such as prayer. We also look at trends in religious “switching”—leaving one religion for another—and consider the reasons Americans do so. We also analyze the political context that congregations face today. We ask regular churchgoers how often they discuss political and cultural issues in their churches, how well their churches address those issues, and the extent to which partisan divides are apparent in their congregations.
Topic:: Politics, Religion, Elections, LGBT+, and Reproductive Health
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1460. The Politics of Gender, Pronouns, and Public Education

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Political debates about gender identity have become heated in recent years, as some state legislatures have increasingly sought to restrict transgender rights. Battles over how — or even if — sexual orientation and gender identity should be discussed in public schools are also erupting at school boards nationally, amid larger frustrations with public education that have emerged in the wake of the pandemic and other social tumult. This new study of more than 5,000 Americans takes a closer look at Americans’ views on gender identity and what is appropriate to teach in public schools with respect to sexual orientation and gender identity. We also gauge Americans’ comfort levels with the idea of a friend using gender-neutral pronouns or pronouns that may not match the respondent’s perception of their friend’s gender. We also ask Americans their thoughts about the age at which children should receive sex education in public schools and what content is appropriate. We consider how partisanship, religion, media trust, parental status, and generation relate to people’s views on these matters. We also consider how knowing people who are LGBTQ influences such views.
Topic:: Politics, LGBT+, Transgender, and Gender Identity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1461. Two Histories, One Future: The Legacy of Confederate Memorials and the Promise of Public Spaces

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In partnership with E Pluribus Unum (EPU), PRRI convened a series of 26 focus groups across 13 southern states to discuss how residents think about public spaces in their communities and about the legacy and future of Confederate monuments.[1] As documented in the Southern Poverty Law Center’s “Whose Heritage?”project, as of 2022, more than 2,000 Confederate monuments and memorials still exist around the country. Most are concentrated in former Confederate states, but many others have been erected across the country. These monuments take the form of statues and memorials, as well as the names of schools, streets, government buildings, and public parks. Many were built in the early 20th century, as a tribute to the “Lost Cause” of the Confederacy, and some were even dedicated in the 21st century. The past 10 years have brought waves of protests calling for racial justice, triggered by events such as the mass shooting of Black parishioners by a white supremacist at Mother Emanuel Church in Charleston, South Carolina; the “Unite the Right” white-supremacist march in Charlottesville, Virginia; and the killing of George Floyd by police in Minneapolis, Minnesota. These protests have sparked discussions about the nation’s racial history, during which some people have called for the removal of public monuments and memorials that honor the Confederacy and its leaders. Meanwhile, other people have responded by strongly objecting to their removal. To understand Black and white Americans’ views on this topic, PRRI and EPU convened two focus groups in each of the 13 included states, with participants divided by race: one white group, with a white moderator, and one Black group, with a Black moderator. Having all-white and all-Black groups created a space in which participants were less likely to self-censor their views for fear of offending participants of a different race. Since part of the purpose of the project was to investigate the role of religion in conversations about race and public spaces, the groups included only those who affiliated with a religion and said it was important in their life. Participants were selected to balance other characteristics within the group, including age, gender, and partisan affiliation.[2] Recruitment for each group was focused on a specific city within each state, but owing to the other criteria, some participants came from outlying areas near the city or even other parts of the state.[3] As part of the project, PRRI and EPU also fielded a national survey, with oversamples in each of the 13 focus group states, to see how the focus groups resonated with larger representative samples. Results from the survey are provided throughout this report to provide additional context for the focus group findings.[4] These focus groups provided an important environment for conversations about public spaces and the legacy and future of Confederate memorials. Many Black Americans shared deeply personal anecdotes about how the legacy of the Confederacy has touched their lives and how memorials serve as reminders of a violent past and a tense present. Furthermore, these focus groups shed light on the work that still needs to be done to bridge racial divides in American communities, particularly regarding Confederate memorials.
Topic:: History, Public Space, Confederacy, and Memorials
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1462. Clergy and Congregations in a Time of Transformation: Findings from the 2022-2023 Mainline Protestant Clergy Survey

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Mainline Protestant denominations have played an outsized role in America’s history, given that most of the nation’s founders were members of what we now refer to as mainline Protestant churches. Until the 1960s, more than half of American adults identified with the largest seven mainline Protestant traditions.[1] Since that time, mainline Protestant denominations have suffered significant declines in membership, although their membership numbers have stabilized somewhat in the past few years. Mainline Protestants remained arguably the most neglected of the major religious groups in the American landscape. Unlike white evangelical Protestant clergy and clergy from predominately Black Protestant denominations, mainline Protestant clergy historically are less politically aligned with their congregants and face congregations that are more ideologically diverse.[2] The perspectives of mainline Protestant clergy merit more consideration for several reasons, including their role as leaders within their churches and their local communities. Studies show that clergy often have a significant role in influencing their congregants’ religious and cultural views.
Topic:: Politics, Religion, Clergy, and Protestantism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1463. The Faith Factor in Climate Change: How Religion Impacts American Attitudes on Climate and Environmental Policy

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: As the planet’s temperature continues to rise, producing more severe weather events and threatening our future well-being, many religious leaders have in recent years taken clear stances about the dangers that climate change poses. Pope Francis has made climate care an important part of his papacy by establishing a World Day of Prayer each September for the care of creation, and calling on governments to enact more regulations against the emission of fossil fuels and individuals to adopt more sustainable lifestyles. Ecumenical organizations in the United States, such as the National Council of Churches, have long spoken out for environmental causes, linking such concerns to the Christian doctrine of stewardship for the earth. The National Association of Evangelicals issued a sweeping report in 2022 that also called on its followers to address climate change, noting a “biblical basis” to “worship God by caring for creation.” Major Jewish, Muslim, and Hindu religious groups and their leaders have also called for environmental activism based on religious teachings. While the scientific consensus is clear that human activities, particularly through carbon emissions, are the main culprit of climate change, political views differ with respect to the causes of climate change, its political importance, and how to address it. Moreover, religious views on climate change are far from monolithic. This report covers Americans’ assessments of the threats of climate change, how it affects their lives and voting behavior, and what steps they are willing to take to combat climate change, with particular focus on the impact of religion on such views. We also consider how partisanship, media trust, race and ethnicity, generation, and education are linked to climate change attitudes. Furthermore, we explore Americans’ spiritual connections to the earth and reasons why they support taking action to protect the environment.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Religion
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1464. Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In this divided era of American politics, the nation turns its eyes toward an unprecedented presidential election, with two of the oldest leading candidates in history — one of whom is facing federal and state indictments related to efforts to overturn the previous election. The 14th Annual American Values survey, conducted by PRRI in partnership with the Brookings Institution, examines Americans’ attitudes about the leading candidates for president, potential support for third-party candidates, and the issues that define these partisan and cultural fault lines. The survey illuminates Americans’ concerns about the overall direction of the country, the state of the economy and inflation, public education, social connectedness, and the broader health of our democracy. Additionally, the survey highlights attitudes about abortion, gender and LGBTQ issues, immigration, foreign policy, Christian nationalism, and support for QAnon, among other issues.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1465. What’s Next for Oil and Gas Methane Regulations

Author:: Ben Cahill
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Proposed methane regulations for the oil and gas industry are in the works in the United States and the European Union. These new rules—especially the U.S. regulations—could play a critical role in curbing emissions. This brief summarizes the next steps for methane rules on both sides of the Atlantic, including an overview of the emerging regulations in the United States and a synopsis of the EU methane legislation process. It identifies areas that require more analysis, such as how closely measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV), leak detection and repair (LDAR), and reporting requirements will align. The brief also summarizes the current EU approach to reducing methane emissions from its gas imports as well as its longer-term aspirations, outlining the implications for gas exporters to Europe.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Regulation, Sustainability, Methane, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

1466. Centering PEPFAR in U.S. Global Health Security Strategies

Author:: Katherine E. Bliss
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), now in its 20th year, supports initiatives that train health workers, strengthen laboratory capabilities, and deliver critical treatment and prevention services to people living with and at risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Credited with having saved more than 25 million lives and enabled more than 5.5 million children to be born HIV-free, PEPFAR programs currently sustain at least 20 million people on antiretroviral therapy. They have also built local capacities that have allowed PEPFAR-supported countries to respond effectively to other health threats, such as the 2019 cholera outbreak in Mozambique, the Covid-19 pandemic, mpox, and the Ebola outbreak in Uganda in 2022. Recognizing the contributions made by PEPFAR to addressing recent health crises, the Biden administration has begun to more explicitly align HIV/AIDS and health security approaches, both in the December 2022 PEPFAR strategy as well as through the July 2023 launch of the Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy at the U.S. Department of State. In this report, the CSIS Working Group on Reinvigorating U.S. Leadership on HIV/AIDS offers concrete recommendations for advancing progress on reaching the goal of eliminating HIV as a global public health threat by 2030 while maximizing the contributions of a disease-specific health initiative to pandemic preparedness and response.
Topic:: HIV/AIDS, Health, Foreign Aid, and US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief(PEPFAR)
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1467. Improving the Efficiency of NRC Power Reactor Licensing: The 1957 Mandatory Hearing Reconsidered

Author:: Matt Bowen, Rama T. Ponangi, and Stephen Burns
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Nuclear energy can play a vital role in helping the US—and the globe—meet mid-century climate goals. But any such role for nuclear depends on overcoming the significant if underappreciated challenges posed by the current nuclear licensing process in the US. Put simply, getting a new nuclear project licensed is time-consuming and expensive. This report, part of ongoing research on nuclear energy at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA focuses on a singular element of the licensing process that has drawn particular scrutiny for the resources it demands: the so-called mandatory hearing. Dating to a 1957 amendment to the Atomic Energy Act (AEA) of 1954, the mandatory hearing was put in place during the early period of nuclear reactor regulation as a way of forcing the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) to be more transparent with the public about projects under consideration for development. It was intended to provide an open forum in which the details of reactor project applications were aired publicly and debated. But today, well over half a century since the 1957 amendment to the AEA, there are several compelling reasons to reconsider the mandatory hearing requirement.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Regulation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1468. The Uncertain Costs of New Nuclear Reactors: What Study Estimates Reveal about the Potential for Nuclear in a Decarbonizing World

Author:: Matt Bowen, Emeka Ochu, and James Glynn
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Models that run decarbonization scenarios to meet mid-century goals for mitigating climate change almost always include a significant role for nuclear energy. The source’s projected level of deployment, however, remains uncertain, largely due to a wide range of estimated costs for new builds. Other factors that make it hard to gauge nuclear’s portion of the future energy mix include whether policies advancing low-carbon technologies will be enacted, the degree of public support for transmission siting and available low-carbon energy sources, whether new reactor technologies and fuels will change the investment equation, and how quickly “competitor” sources such as carbon capture and sequestration, renewables, and storage reduce costs. This report, part of ongoing research into nuclear energy at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, examines the economics of new nuclear facilities for electricity generation—whether building them out makes sense financially as part of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as power demand grows across the globe. Insights into costs can be gleaned by reviewing the history of construction delays and cost overruns in the United States, international experiences that have fared better and worse, and studies that model a transitioning energy system. Studies reviewed in this report estimate new US reactor costs generally ranging from $3,000/kilowatt (kW) to $6,200/kW based on a variety of reactor designs and cost reduction curves assumed for subsequent years. Internationally, new reactor costs vary significantly by country, depending in part upon factors such as the cost of labor and whether projects involve multiple reactor builds (with attendant efficiencies in manufacturing and construction).
Topic:: Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1469. Overworked and Undervalued: Unmasking Primary Care Physicians’ Dissatisfaction in 10 High-Income Countries

Author:: Evan D. Gumas, Munira Z. Gunja, Arnav Shah, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: In many countries, including the United States, primary care physicians are reaching a breaking point.1 In 2021, an estimated 117,000 physicians in the U.S. left the workforce for reasons like retirement, burnout, and pandemic-related stressors.2 During the COVID-19 pandemic, primary care physicians around the world saw a dramatic fall in in-person visits in favor of telehealth, accompanied in some countries by decreases in revenue.3 The Commonwealth Fund also found that most primary care physicians experienced increases in their workload because of more time spent processing insurance payments, getting patients medications or treatments because of coverage restrictions, and reporting clinical or quality of care data to external entities. This has contributed to increased stress, emotional distress, demoralization, and burnout.4 This brief explores primary care physician work satisfaction in the first year of the pandemic — 2020 to 2021 — drawing from the 2022 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey of Primary Care Physicians. (See “How We Conducted This Survey” for more details.) Understanding how primary care physicians feel about their everyday work is crucial to improving their patients’ quality of care and to reversing the steady stream of professionals exiting the primary health care workforce. Across 10 high-income countries, including the U.S., we compare primary care physicians’ time spent with patients, number of patients seen, and job satisfaction.
Topic:: Health Care Policy, Public Health, Primary Care, and Dissatisfaction
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

1470. Climate Change and Geopolitics in the Blue Pacific

Author:: Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Climate change has consistently been articulated as the greatest threat to the region by the leaders of Pacific Island countries. Atoll nations face the possibility of forced displacement due to rising sea levels and extreme weather events. At the same time, these countries risk being drawn into the China-US competition for geopolitical influence even though this rivalry provides opportunities for them to engage with the big powers to deal with climate change. The Pacific island countries have also been strengthening their regional security through a more unified approach, established in their 2050 Blue Pacific Strategy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Geopolitics, Regional Security, Forced Displacement, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:: China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

1471. The U.S.-China Rivalry is Changing International Supply Chains

Author:: Piotr Dzierżanowski
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: While the U.S.-China economic rivalry has been intensifying for years and is closely linked to the deterioration in political relations, the sudden collapse of supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the increased role of security considerations in economic relations and the interdependencies between China and developed countries. The American actions to reduce those links will have long-term consequences for U.S.-China relations and the economies of other countries.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Trade, Rivalry, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

1472. U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, 2022: Accelerating Spending, Worsening Outcomes

Author:: Munira Z. Gunja, Evan D. Gumas, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: In the previous edition of U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, we reported that people in the United States experience the worst health outcomes overall of any high-income nation.1 Americans are more likely to die younger, and from avoidable causes, than residents of peer countries. Between January 2020 and December 2021, life expectancy dropped in the U.S. and other countries.2 With the pandemic a continuing threat to global health and well-being, we have updated our 2019 cross-national comparison of health care systems to assess U.S. health spending, outcomes, status, and service use relative to Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. We also compare U.S. health system performance to the OECD average for the 38 high-income countries for which data are available. The data for our analysis come from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and other international sources (see “How We Conducted This Study” for details). For every metric we examine, we used the latest data available. This means that results for certain countries may reflect the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when mental health conditions were surging, essential health services were disrupted, and patients may not have received the same level of care
Topic:: Health, Health Care Policy, Inequality, and Finance
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1473. The First COVID Wave: Comparing Experiences of Adults Age 50 and Older in the U.S. and Europe

Author:: Thomas Barnay and Eric Defebvre
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: Three years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, the United States remains one of the hardest-hit countries, with more than 1 million confirmed coronavirus deaths, of which more than 91 percent involved people 50 years and older.1 Beyond causing this enormous loss of life, the pandemic has had other significant adverse consequences, including hospitalizations, job loss, and delayed care for millions of Americans. In this brief, we examine how U.S. adults age 50 and older fared during the first wave of the pandemic in the summer of 2020, compared with their peers in European countries.
Topic:: Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1474. Is the banking crisis back?

Author:: Olivier Perquel
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: On March 8th, 2023, the Silvergate Bank, a small American regional establishment, a crypto-currency specialist, went bankrupt. Two days later, on March 10th, the Silicon Valley Bank, a large regional bank, which had become the 16th largest in the US by total assets, and the largest holder of the liquidities of Californian startups and venture capital, failed. On March 12th, Signature Bank (roughly half of the size of Silicon Valley Bank), of which the Trump family was a client until the Capitol incidents, also collapsed. Three bank runs in only a few days, even though everyone believed that since the 2007 crisis and the subsequent massive re-regulation of the banking sector in the United States and in Europe, the banking sector was safe. These three bankruptcies followed the same mechanism. Silicon Valley, as its name suggests, was the main bank of the Californian Silicon Valley, where startups and venture capital funds deposited their liquidities. And following the extraordinary development of this activity until 2022, these liquidities had become extremely large. It should indeed be understood that these funds and startups which look for financial backing all the time and obtain frequent and ever larger fundraises, therefore own significant amounts of liquidities. Indeed, start-ups raise money at a given point in time to finance their runway, i.e. their investments and working capital requirements, for a certain period of time (one, two or three years) until the following fundraise. As a result, during the intermediary period, they deposit the amounts raised and not yet spent in banks. Similarly, the venture capital funds take a certain time to invest the amounts raised and, in the meantime, deposit their Dry Powder in banks. Hence these bank deposits grow extremely rapidly. However, an organization like Silicon Valley Bank cannot develop at the same speed as its credit activities, far from it. It is therefore obliged to invest its assets in bonds, notably US Treasury bonds, liquid in nature, and not risky - supposedly. And when rates rise, the value of these bonds decreases, even if it does not show in the bank’s accounts, since these bonds are generally accounted for as “held to maturity”, i.e. at par. Indeed, at maturity, these bonds will be reimbursed at par; and if the banks keep these bonds until then, it will not lose any money
Topic:: Economy, Banking Crisis, and Startup
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1475. The Growing Presence of Faith-Based Hospitals in California Restricts Access to Sexual and Reproductive Healthcare

Author:: Yuki Hebner, Kayla Lim, Natalie Gehred, and Zoe Guttman
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Sexual and reproductive healthcare restrictions imposed by faith-based hospitals prevent women, sexual minorities, and gender minorities from accessing the full range of comprehensive healthcare. The share of faith-based hospitals in California has increased rapidly in recent years, but no analysis has been completed to understand their distribution and rate of growth. In this paper, we calculate the percentage of religiously affiliated acute, short-term hospital beds per California county. We find that faith-based hospitals have a majority market share in 17 out of 58 California counties. Furthermore, while the percentage of faith-based hospitals in these counties has remained relatively stable from 2000-2010, this proportion has increased tenfold in the past decade. Our data suggest that the expansion of faith-based healthcare systems in California presents a significant barrier to sexual and reproductive healthcare access.
Topic:: Health Care Policy, Faith, Sexual Health, and Reproductive Health
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1476. Examining Child Deprivation Across California and How It Could Be Addressed with Early Childhood Education

Author:: Jamshid Damooei and Ruslan Korchagin
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Socioeconomic deprivation can create adverse conditions with direct impacts on the development of children. The Early Childhood Deprivation Index (ECDI) shows that there are significant differences in the extent of deprivation of young children (aged 0 to 5 years) among the counties in California. Our research shows that the cost of childcare forms a significant proportion of family income among low- and middle-income families. It indicates that families can pay for a high proportion of such costs if they could access the available federal and state government entitlements. A universal high-quality early childhood education system brings about an efficient way of providing the childcare without the unnecessary cost of employing a means-tested entitlement mechanism. However, even with universal early childhood education, families need support to be able to take advantage of the program, since pre-schooling will be on a voluntary basis. It is therefore important that in addition to providing education universally- communities, and the state make every effort to increase the ability of California families to benefit from this important opportunity.
Topic:: Education, Poverty, Children, Inequality, and Child Care
Political Geography:: California, North America, and United States of America

1477. Alaska Electoral Reform: The Top 4 Primary and Ranked-Choice-Voting

Author:: Jerry McBeath
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Why did Alaska develop a top 4, Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system? This article explains the role a blanket primary played in the evolution of Alaska’s nominating process, beset by demands of the rising Alaska Republican Party (ARP) to protect its rights as a political association while the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in California v. Jones constrained states’ interests. In 2019-2020 reformers proposed a new system emphasizing a nonpartisan primary with RCV, which political party leaders opposed. Voters narrowly approved the ballot measure in the 2020 general election; it was used for the first time in a special election, and primaries in 2022 and the following general election. The most significant outcomes were the election of Mary Peltola, a Democrat (and Alaska Native) to the state’s sole seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and reelection of Republican Lisa Murkowski, senior U.S. senator, who defied former President Donald Trump. The article presents information on major political party registrations, showing switching dominance (from Democratic to Republican). However, from 1970 to 2023, a majority of registrants were either nonpartisan or undeclared, a different pattern than found in the other states. The report compares Alaska’s experience with those of other states using RCV, and concludes with a discussion of the broader implications of the Alaska case.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Voting, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: North America, Alaska, and United States of America

1478. Alaska’s New Electoral System: Countering Polarization or “Crooked as Hell”?

Author:: Marie O'Reilly, David Lublin, and Glenn Wright
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In November 2020, Alaska introduced a new electoral system, combining a “top four” all-party primary with ranked choice voting (RCV) general elections. Supporters of this reform claimed it would reduce the partisan polarization and minority victories generated by closed primaries and plurality elections. But critics suggest that it could make polarization worse by weakening political parties—an important check on political extremism. These are high-stakes issues that go well beyond Alaska, given the problem of political polarization and the search for institutional reforms in America today. Placing the Alaskan reforms in this broader national context, this paper presents an initial assessment of Alaska’s new system at the 2022 primary and mid-term elections. We find the reform was both consequential and largely beneficial, promoting greater choice for voters, more accommodative campaigning, and generally more moderate outcomes than likely under the old rules.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Voting, and Party System
Political Geography:: North America, Alaska, and United States of America

1479. ASEAN's medium- to long-term trade strategies and the direction of RoK-ASEAN cooperation

Author:: Sungil Kwak, Seungjin Cho, Jaewan Cheong, Jaeho Lee, Mingeum Shin, Nayoun Park, and So Eun Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In recent years, the U.S.-China hegemony competition has intensified, dividing the world into two blocs. ASEAN has long culti-vated its position on the international stage by maintaining a certain distance between the United States and China. In that sense, ASEAN is the best partner for Korea to ef-fectively respond to the divided world. Therefore, this study seeks the directions of cooperation with ASEAN in supply chain, digital trade, climate change response, and health and development cooperation in line with changes in the international order.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Trade, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1480. Network and Text Analysis on Digital Trade Agreements

Author:: Kyu Yub Lee, Cheon-Kee Lee, Won Seok Choi, Jyun-Hyun Eom, and Unjung Whang
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: We use the Trade Agreements Provisions on Electronic Commerce and Data and their corresponding texts to undertake network and text analysis on trade agreements with digital trade chapters to identify which countries are important in the network and how similar or different their texts of digital trade chapters are. centrality values reflect which countries are influential in the network, while values of similarity assess the level of similarity between the texts of digital trade chapters concluded by these countries. Centrality and similarity are complementary in assessing the relative positions of countries in the network, where the number of linkages between countries is significant in centrality and the quality of digital trade chapters is critical in similarity. We interpret this to mean that a country with a high degree of centrality is likely to be a rule-promoter in the network, whereas a country with a high degree of similarity is likely to be a rule-maker. The brief highlights three key findings from network and text analysis of digital trade agreements: (1) The U.S. has been the best rule-maker but not the best rule-promoter, whereas Singapore has been the best rule-promoter but not the best rule-maker. (2) China is a rule-maker, but to a weaker extent than the U.S., and Korea is a rule-promoter, although it is less active than Singapore. (3) Japan and Australia have served as both rule-makers and rule-promoters. Identification of countries’ relative positions in the network of digital trade agreements would be useful at the start of talks on digital trade policy.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, Digital Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, and United States of America

1481. Strategies of Multinational Companies Entering China in the Era of U.S.-China Competition and Implications for Korea

Author:: Sang Baek Hyun, Ji Young Moon, Min-suk Park, Jonghyuk Oh, and Yunmi Oh
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: With the integration of resources and markets around the world sparked by the trend of globalization, multinational companies have continued to grow at a rapid pace. In particular, global manufacturers have maintained their competitiveness by distributing resources more efficiently while establishing a global value chain with China as their main production hub. However, measures taken by the U.S. to block China’s access to technology and supply chains in some high-tech industries have prompted discussions on reorganization of the global supply chain, placing these multinational companies in an uncertain situation concerning their operations in China. At a time when competition between the U.S. and China is intensifying, it is necessary to look at the response strategies of global companies that have entered China and seek effective countermeasures for Korean companies.
Topic:: Economics, Multinational Corporations, Manufacturing, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

1482. Using Risk Analysis to Shape Border Management: A Review of Approaches during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Kelley Lee, Julianne Piper, and Jennifer Fang
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The near universal adoption of travel measures by governments to control the spread of COVID-19 has proved controversial during the pandemic. National responses have been highly varied and frequently changing, and the use of travel measures—ranging from advisories and screening to quarantine, testing, immunity certification, and restrictions on entry—has been poorly coordinated across jurisdictions. Particularly in the early stages of the crisis, this created chaos for travelers and the travel sector, and caused significant economic and social harms. Many governments also failed to clearly communicate the rationale for using travel measures, the evidence underpinning them, and the measures’ role within overall pandemic response strategies. There is now substantial evidence that these measures’ early and stringent use by some governments during the initial stages of the pandemic slowed the importation of the virus and reduced its onward transmission. Yet, there is also growing recognition of weaknesses in the quality of evidence available to inform policy decisions. Evaluating the appropriateness of travel measures and applying them effectively during future public-health emergencies will depend on international consensus on methodologies that lead to a more harmonized and coordinated approach and to greater public trust in policy decisions. This report presents a comparative analysis of 11 publicly available methodologies used to assess travel-related risks during the pandemic—those of Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Air Transport Association, World Health Organization, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and European Union. It offers a set of lessons learned and recommendations, including a proposed decision instrument that could improve the use of risk analysis for border management during future public-health emergencies.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Organization, Governance, Border Control, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Global Focus, and United States of America

1483. Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army’s Professional Expert Knowledge

Author:: C. Anthony Pfaff, Christopher J. Lowrance, Bre M. Washburn, and Brett A. Carey
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Also, unlike the development of the bomb, effective employment of AI technology cannot be relegated to a few specialists; almost everyone will have to develop some level of AI and data literacy. Complicating matters is AI-driven systems can be a “black box” in that humans may not be able to explain some output, much less be held accountable for its consequences. This inability to explain coupled with the cession to a machine of some functions normally performed by humans risks the relinquishment of some jurisdiction and, consequently, autonomy to those outside the profession. Ceding jurisdiction could impact the American people’s trust in their military and, thus, its professional standing. To avoid these outcomes, creating and maintaining trust requires integrating knowledge of AI and data science into the military’s professional expertise. This knowledge covers both AI technology and how its use impacts command responsibility; talent management; governance; and the military’s relationship with the US government, the private sector, and society.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, Army, Civil-Military Relations, and Data Science
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1484. WHY DEMOCRACIES AREN’T MORE RELIABLE ALLIANCE PARTNERS

Author:: Mark Nieman and Doug Gibler
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: ussia’s invasion of Ukraine set off a security spiral in Europe. Despite US President Biden’s pledge to “defend every inch of NATO territory,” Poland increased its military budget by a whopping 60 percent and asked to have US nuclear weapons based on its territory. Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia also announced sizable defense increases, with Latvia re-instating compulsory military training. Why didn’t Biden’s pledge reassure these NATO members? Is the alliance’s famed Article 5 promise—that an attack on one member is an attack on all—a less than ironclad guarantee?
Topic:: NATO, Democracy, Alliance, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

1485. WOULD AN ARMED HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION IN HAITI BE LEGAL—AND COULD IT SUCCEED?

Author:: Alexandra Byrne, Zoha Siddiqui, and Kelebogile Zvobgo
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Haitian officials and world leaders are calling for an armed humanitarian intervention backed by the United Nations (UN) to defeat organized crime. Gangs in Haiti have reportedly kidnapped and killed hundreds of civilians and displaced thousands. Gangs are also limiting access to fuel and blocking critical humanitarian aid to civilians. Add to this a resurgence of cholera. The United States asked the UN Security Council in October to approve a targeted intervention, under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield underscored “extreme violence and instability” in Haiti and proposed a mission led by a “partner country” (not the United States or UN peacekeeping forces). There is nominal support for the mission. In the coming weeks, Canada will send naval vessels to Haiti’s coast, and Jamaica has offered some troops, but no country is taking the lead. Critics argue that past missions in Haiti did more harm than good. In 2010, UN peacekeepers even reintroduced cholera into Haiti. Nonetheless, the United States is pushing for an intervention.
Topic:: International Law, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:: Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America

1486. Refuge: How the State Shapes Human Potential

Author:: Heba Gowayed
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Drawing on a global and comparative ethnography, this presentation explores how Syrian men and women seeking refuge in a moment of unprecedented global displacement are received by countries of resettlement and asylum—the U.S., Canada, and Germany. It shows that human capital, typically examined as the skills immigrants bring with them that shape their potential, is actually created, transformed, or destroyed by receiving states’ incorporation policies. Since these policies derive from historically informed and unequal approaches to social welfare, refugees’ experiences raise a mirror to how states (re)produce inequality.
Topic:: Refugees, Inequality, Human Capital, Resettlement, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Middle East, Canada, Germany, Syria, and United States of America

1487. The Two Faces of American Freedom

Author:: Aziz Rana
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Professor Rana situates the American experience within the global history of colonialism, examining the intertwined relationship in U.S. constitutional practice between internal accounts of freedom and external projects of power and expansion. In the process, he reinterprets the American political tradition from the colonial period to modern times, placing issues especially of race, immigration, and national security in the context of shifting notions of empire and citizenship.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, Race, Citizenship, Colonialism, and Freedom
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1488. Imperfect Partners: The United States and Southeast Asia

Author:: Scot Marciel and Ann Marie Murphy
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: This event will discuss U.S.-Southeast Asian relations with Ambassador Scot Marciel, the former United States Ambassador to Indonesia and Myanmar. The talk will be based on his new book which will be released on March 15, 2023 entitled Imperfect Partners: the United States and Southeast Asia. Imperfect Partners is a unique hybrid – part memoir, part foreign policy study of U.S. relations with Southeast Asia, a critically important region that has become the central arena in the global U.S.-China competition. From the People Power revolt in the Philippines to the opening of diplomatic relations with Vietnam, from building a partnership with newly democratic Indonesia to responding to genocide in Myanmar and coups in Thailand, Scot Marciel was present and involved. His direct involvement and deep knowledge of the region, along with his extensive policymaking work in Washington, allows him to bring to life the complexities and realities of key events and U.S. responses, along with rare insights into U.S. foreign policy decision-making and the work of American diplomats in the field.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and United States of America

1489. China/United States: Europe off Balance

Author:: Thomas Gomart and Marc Hecker
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: As French President Emmanuel Macron (accompanied by Ursula von der Leyen) is on a state visit to China, some twenty Ifri researchers decipher the stakes of the U.S./China/Europe strategic triangle. This 16-text study follows Olaf Scholz’s visit to Beijing (November 2022) and precedes that of Emmanuel Macron (April 2023). It comes especially one year after the beginning of a geopolitical and geoeconomic shock of a rare magnitude: the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The War in Ukraine or the Return of Bloc Geopolitics? The war in Ukraine has broken ties between the European Union (EU) and Russia for the foreseeable future, particularly in the field of energy, though not without consequences in the Middle East, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, this war has become the main show of active indirect confrontation between the United States—which has provided military support to Ukrainians, with help from its European allies—and China, which has supported Russia politically and economically. In February 2022, Moscow and Beijing declared their “no limits friendship”; in March 2023, Xi Jinping offered his personal support to Vladimir Putin after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest. In its position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, presented in February 2023, China stated: “All parties should oppose the pursuit of one’s own security at the cost of others’ security, prevent bloc confrontation, and work together for peace and stability on the Eurasian Continent”. China is no more of a mediator than the United States: it would be unrealistic to believe so. We appear to be witnessing a return of bloc geopolitics, albeit in a starkly different context than that of the Cold War (1947-1991). Globalization has produced strong economic and technological interdependencies that make any prospect of decoupling very costly, if not impossible. Economic partners are no longer necessarily military allies, and vice versa. In other words, a gap is opening up between geopolitical perceptions and geoeconomic realities. The term “decoupling” is popular in the United States, though much less so elsewhere. The rejection of bloc geopolitics is particularly acute outside of the West, where a “pragmatic” approach to foreign policy is often promoted. The Saudi foreign minister summed this up during the World Policy Conference in December 2022: “Polarization is the last thing we need right now. […] We need to build bridges, strengthen connections, and find areas of cooperation”. A few months later, China pulled off an extraordinary diplomatic coup by brokering a deal to restore relations between Riyadh and Tehran. For the EU, the situation is particularly delicate: Europe is in the Western camp, but a severing of ties with Beijing would cause a crushing economic blow. In 2022, China accounted for more than 20% of the EU’s imports, while the United States accounted for around 12%. By 2030, the EU’s GDP is expected to rise to $20.5 trillion, compared to $30.5 trillion for the United States and $33.7 trillion for China. In January 2023, the President of the European Commission declared at Davos: “We still need to work and trade with China, especially when it comes to this transition. So, we need to refocus our approach on de-risking, rather than decoupling”. For its part, Beijing has encouraged European aspirations of “strategic autonomy”, understood in China as a form of detachment from the United States. At the same time, the EU is constantly strengthening its military, technological, financial and energy ties with the U.S. This collective study notes a hypothetical search for balance on the part of the Europeans, faced with a war on their territory (the Western peninsula of the heartland), who cannot escape Sino-American mechanisms, and who do not form a monolithic whole. It also analyzes the strategy of several important actors outside our continent, and shows that, from Ukraine to Taiwan, via Africa and the Middle East, Europeans have little room for maneuver. This is why the study proposes recommendations to try, at a crucial moment, to reinforce their positioning.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, European Union, and Industry
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

1490. Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight

Author:: Héloïse Fayet and Amélie Ferey
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The Red Team Defence demonstrates the Ministry of the Armed Forces' desire to appropriate new foresight tools. Thus, brain games or serious games aim to bypass the weight of the military hierarchy, the standardisation of thoughts and cognitive biases in order to avoid strategic unthinking. In September 2022, The New York Times revealed that the successful Ukrainian offensive on Kharkiv had been prepared in a series of wargames conducted that summer. Given this success, further wargames have been undertaken with a view to a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring. This rise in the popularity of wargames, which come in various forms, is due to their ability to immerse participants in a situation, helping them to become aware of their strategic and tactical blind spots and to identify their own vulnerabilities by putting themselves in the enemy’s position. The ability to anticipate crises and foresee conflicts is essential in order to maintain the initiative and ultimately win out. Thus, the aim of defense foresight is to understand the different forms future wars might take (asymmetric, hybrid, high intensity), the weapons systems that may be employed (drones, high-velocity missiles), and the factors that could trigger them. The use of wargames or scenario analyses to facilitate anticipation and foresight goes hand in hand with changes in the relationship between military and political leaders and civilians, who no longer hesitate to hold the former to account when they have failed to foresee a crisis. The German sociologist Ulrich Beck thus refers to the paradox of a society that is keen to predict the future because of its aversion to risk and the fact that it is now much more difficult to foresee what might happen in the short term due to very rapid technological developments. The modern world generates both risks and progress, and the inability to foresee strategic ruptures carries significant political costs, which explains why politicians set so much store in anticipation and foresight. The initiatives launched by Florence Parly after being appointed French minister of the armed forces in 2017 included promoting experimentation in new cognitive tools. Beyond the issue of technology, the aim was to rethink information management within the ministry in order to make it more agile and cross-cutting. In addition to a significant budget allocated to innovation in the 2019–2025 Military Programming Law, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has drawn inspiration from methods often originating in other organizational cultures, such as start-ups and the private sector, in order to improve its creativity and accelerate its adoption of digital technology.
Topic:: War Games, Military, and Anticipation
Political Geography:: Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

1491. Digital Sovereignty: European Policies, American Dilemmas

Author:: Mathilde Velliet
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: European digital sovereignty has been made a priority by Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission. Due to the privileged position of American companies in the European market, Brussels’ efforts towards digital sovereignty (on privacy, antitrust, data sovereignty, etc.) are closely scrutinized by American policymakers. They often view European initiatives as “protectionist” and unfairly targeting U.S. companies. However, the American vision of European digital sovereignty has evolved in recent years under the influence of two main factors. On the one hand, awareness of the problematic effects and practices of platforms has led to a consensus on the need for reform in the digital sector. On the other hand, technological competition with China has been elevated to a priority. This vision remains fraught with contradictions, along inter-party, intra-party, inter-agency, state-federal, and issue-based fault lines. Washington’s position on anti-monopolistic practices is an illuminating example, characterized by a double discourse between a desire to reform the U.S. digital sector domestically and active diplomacy to dilute these efforts at the European level. Nonetheless, several American actors – particularly in the legislative branch – are seeking to learn from the successes and flaws of European regulations for American reform projects, such as on platform regulation or privacy. The China factor reinforces the ambiguity of the U.S.’ position. It creates new opportunities for cooperation in the face of perceived common vulnerabilities (infrastructure security, inbound investments, etc.) and autocratic definitions of digital sovereignty. However, it also raises tension and misunderstanding on the American side towards European reforms that often target American companies more than Chinese ones. Lastly, while American and European companies have adapted to the need for digital sovereignty through a range of technical and commercial solutions, the temptation of a maximalist definition of European sovereignty continues to create major stumbling blocks, particularly on the cloud.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, Cloud Computing, Digital Sovereignty, and Data Governance
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1492. South Korea and IPEF: Rationale, Objectives and the Implications for Partners and Neighbors

Author:: Jaewoo Choo
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: As a key manufacturer of high-end technology components critical to the sustainability of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, South Korea is essential in any effort to rebuild a resilient global supply chain but also to the promotion of a clean economy. South Korea can thus contribute to two of the pillars of IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework), specially to pillars II and III (supply-chain resilience and a clean economy). However, as the US executive and legislative branches intensify their hawkish approaches to China, they have not given much consideration to the possible damage they will inflict on the strategic interests of some of their allies. In particular, they have not fully considered Korean factors when legislating on bills such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This paper argues that allies such as South Korea and France must make the White House and US legislature aware of the external consequences of their decisions and behavior, and that they must cooperate within the confines of US-led strategic initiatives.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economy, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

1493. How the War in Ukraine is Changing the Space Game

Author:: Guilhem Penent and Guillaume Schlumberger
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The war in Ukraine has become a showcase for the new commercial paradigm emerging in the space sector (New Space). As such, it seems to confirm the relevance of adaptation efforts led by the United States – more specifically the Pentagon – since the mid-2010s. Thus, it highlights ongoing transformations and announces potential disruptions in the exploitation of orbits, particularly in the fields of satellite connectivity and remote sensing. It also shapes future tensions, while the structuring of international relations around the two poles constituted by the United States and China raises questions about the consequences on the safe, sustainable, secure, and stable use of space. With these developments, Europe is faced with the challenge of remaining relevant.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Space, Satellite, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

1494. Reshuffling Value Chains - South Korea as a Case Study

Author:: Françoise Nicolas
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Despite all the talks about the reshuffling of value-chains and the trend to a form of industrial “Desinicization” (or decoupling/disengagement from China), the example of South Korea does not vindicate such assertions. The expansion of Korean direct investment in neighboring countries such as China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) remains a reality and it has not changed in any fundamental way over the past two decades. South Korean companies’ decisions to locate in one country rather than another are still very much based on cost factors, even if security considerations are increasingly factored in. Similarly, reshoring, which has been high on the South Korean government’s agenda for a long time, remains a marginal phenomenon for South Korean companies, despite the incentives provided. Rather than the relocation of production (in the form of reshoring or nearshoring) South Korean companies have turned to more unexpected options, such as the development of complementarity-based partnerships or vertically-integrated production networks with commodity suppliers, as in the case of the production of rare earth-based magnets. Such a strategy is likely to become more popular in the future, as it nicely combines economic and security considerations. Without a doubt, due to the highly politicized nature of the technology involved, the semiconductor industry is the one undergoing the most significant changes. In a context of rising Sino-US rivalry, the US has ramped up pressures on China with far-reaching consequences, leading South Korean semiconductor companies (with the support of the government) to engage in a strategy combining relocation to the US and onshoring in South Korea. While the economic logic is likely to prevail in most sectors thus limiting the scope for supply chain reshuffling, the examples of the semiconductor and rare earth-based magnets suggest that important changes can still be expected in the future in industries that are deemed strategic.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Supply Chains, Value Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

1495. No Water’s Edge: Russia’s Information War and Regime Security

Author:: Gavin Wilde and Justin Sherman
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: To the extent that any unified theory of Russian information warfare actually exists, its core tenet might well be that regime security has historically been indivisible from information warfare in Russian strategic thought. Rather than an aggressive or expansionist expression of Moscow’s foreign policy, the Kremlin’s so-called information war should primarily be viewed through a domestic and regime security prism—it’s as much a counterinsurgency as an expeditionary strategy, less an escalation than a projection. Analysts and decisionmakers should therefore avoid reflexively casting the United States and the West as Russia’s primary antagonists in its information war, as doing so risks reinforcing these insecurities and exaggerating Moscow’s degree of power in the information ecosystem.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Information Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and United States of America

1496. Integrating Cyber Into Warfighting: Some Early Takeaways From the Ukraine Conflict

Author:: Ariel Levite
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: It is too early to draw definitive conclusions about cyber warfare in the lead-up to and the execution of the Ukraine war. Data are lacking, and the outcome of the conflict remains uncertain. Yet through monitoring and analysis of a single year in the first major war into which cyber has been extensively woven, we do know enough to be able to generate some tentative, high-level, generic propositions on the nature of cyber conflict. These propositions draw on wide-ranging press reporting and extrapolate from several superb pieces recently published by my colleagues Jon Bateman, Nick Beecroft, and Gavin Wilde, as well as Microsoft’s recent report on the cyber dynamics of the conflict.1 However, we must still tread cautiously. Our propositions draw on highly imperfect empirical knowledge of a single historical case that is still unfolding.2 Current and future antagonists are also constantly learning from their own and others’ analyses and enhancing their performance, which can render current assessments obsolete.3 For this and other reasons it is quite possible that some of the cyber dynamics unfolding in and around Ukraine may play out differently later in Ukraine as well as in other, future confrontations. As we have observed over millennia, the balance between offense and defense can shift over time; this dynamic may well play out in cyberspace as well. It is also important to note at the outset that widespread assessments disparaging the utility and expediency of Russian cyber operations in the Ukrainian conflict (and projections regarding future conflicts) are presently limited by far more than a lack of comprehensive and reliable empirical data. We also lack insights into the metrics and criteria that each of the protagonists uses to assess the success and failure of cyber’s overall performance in the conflict, and we have only fragmentary evidence of the role each party expected cyber operations to perform. Moreover, even if we had such information, Ukraine-specific answers might not apply elsewhere because the expectations for cyber and the metrics for assessing its performance may vary not only over time and between protagonists but also from one conflict to another. In this context it is important to underscore that some specific factors that possibly helped diminish the efficacy of Russia’s offensive cyber operations in Ukraine may not apply elsewhere. Three in particular deserve to be noted here: Russia’s unique approach toward cyber warfare; the level of external support that Ukraine received before and during the war from some leading national and multinational cyber powers; and the sophistication and battle-tested experience of Ukraine’s cyber warriors.4 Nevertheless, even if some of the cyber characteristics of the Ukraine conflict ultimately turn out to be sui generis, they are instructive given the novelty of the field and the involvement of major powers in the conflict. Hence, there is considerable value in advancing these propositions to focus attention on certain questions and facets of cyber conflict, facilitating their review and reassessment as more comprehensive and reliable information becomes available and developments on the battlefield evolve. But the reader should consider the interim observations and propositions offered here as hypotheses employed as a heuristic to encourage debate and invite feedback. All the propositions offered below pertain to our core conception of what cyber warfare is about. Some of the propositions we advance are novel; others reaffirm or refine tentative assertions made before the war. Taken together they suggest a more subdued view of the utility and impact of cyber warfare than was generally found in prewar speculations. More importantly, the Ukraine war reveals that nations diverge significantly in the role and aims they assign to offensive cyber operations as well as the institutional setup and operational modalities they use for conducting them. Most glaringly, the U.S. perspective and approach (emulated in whole or in part by several other Western nations) differs deeply from that of Russia, which makes it reasonable to expect similar divergence across similar regimes. We group our propositions under three temporal headings: the prewar period (starting in 2014);5 the war itself (beginning on February 24, 2022); and finally, the postwar period, after kinetic hostilities eventually die down. Obviously, we cannot know when this last phase will begin; nevertheless, analysis of trends that were manifest in the two earlier phases of the conflict provides a tentative basis for predictions as to what might be expected down the road. This broad scope is driven by two considerations. First, it is designed to underscore the considerable relevance of cyber operations across various phases and types of conflicts. And second, it highlights continuity as well as change between cyber action in peacetime, in wartime, and in grey area situations, as well as during the transitions between these states of confrontation.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Conflict, Non-Traditional Threats, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America

1497. The Causes Behind the Ciudad Juárez Migrant Detention Center Fire

Author:: Josiah Heyman and Jeremy Slack
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The fire that killed 40 people on March 27 is the foreseeable consequence of binational immigration enforcement measures by the United States and Mexico.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Border Control, Immigration Policy, and Migrants
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, United States of America, and Ciudad Juarez

1498. Militarized Security and a Cartel Apology in Matamoros

Author:: Philip Luke Johnson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The abduction and murder of U.S. citizens in the border city of Matamoros is part of a larger pattern of violence with impunity by state and criminal actors.
Topic:: Security, Crime, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, Border Control, Impunity, Violence, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

1499. Brasília and Washington

Author:: Chris N. Lesser
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Beyond the parallels with the U.S. Capitol riot, the latest assault on Brazil’s democracy is marked by Washington’s long history of anti-democratic foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democracy, Jair Bolsonaro, January 6, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

1500. Economic sanctions against Russia: How effective? How durable?

Author:: Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Economic sanctions by Western democracies against Russia have not stopped the war and attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Together with continued economic and military support for Ukraine, however, sanctions are blocking Russian president Vladimir Putin from achieving his territorial objectives. Sanctions have contributed to a sharp compression of Russian imports; forced Russia’s military and industry to source from more costly and inefficient suppliers at home and abroad; and slowly begun to squeeze Russian government finances. The G7 countries must sustain and augment their efforts, including by confiscating frozen reserves of the Central Bank of Russia to help fund Ukraine’s reconstruction. G7 policymakers need to derive lessons from the current crisis about the utility of sanctions in conflicts between major powers. Maintaining coherent and coordinated sanctions against large and powerful target countries is critical for the effectiveness and durability of the policy. Deploying sanctions against such rivals also requires a long-term commitment to the implementation and enforcement of the trade and finance restrictions. Sanctions impose costs on both the target country and those imposing the sanctions, so Western policymakers need to offset those costs via domestic support or tax relief to sustain political support over time for sanctions in big power conflicts.
Topic:: Sanctions, Economy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS