Political Geography: United States of America / Publication Year: within 3 Years

1301. Public Diplomacy in Newly Independent Kazakhstan

Author:: Renee M. Earle
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The U.S. raised its flag in Alma-Ata in February 1992, the first country to do so after the Republic of Kazakhstan succeeded the Kazakh SSR with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Following two years at Embassy Moscow supporting broadcast media throughout the USSR with satellite dishes and new programming as glasnost relaxed control over media, I arrived in Alma-Ata in late summer of 1992 for a new adventure as the first permanent Public Affairs Officer in newly independent Kazakhstan. Under the leadership of Ambassador Bill Courtney and DCM Jackson McDonald, the American diplomatic team pioneering our efforts there was energetic, inventive, and full of can-do spirit. Everything was possible, and a lot was difficult. And, I fell in love with this beautiful country and people.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Memoir, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and United States of America

1302. The Foreign Affairs Oral History Collection: A National Treasure

Author:: Heather Ashe
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The diplomatic oral histories collected by the Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training (ADST) comprise a unique reservoir of over 2,500 primary source accounts detailing the experiences of American diplomats and how they have conducted business with other nations—how they “got things done.” The stories capture a wealth of insights and reflections not available from official documents alone and contain a treasure trove of raw material for journalists, historians, researchers, and future diplomats. These oral histories provide usable “lessons learned” spanning decades on what worked and what did not. Since its founding in 1986 as a nongovernmental, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization by retired foreign service officers, the late Charles Stuart Kennedy, the late Victor Wolf Jr., and the late Ambassador Richard B. Parker, ADST has built the world’s largest diplomatic oral history collection. With the support of its staff, membership, and the diplomats who have contributed their stories, ADST strives to achieve its mission of “capturing, preserving, and sharing the experiences of America’s Diplomats”. Charles Stuart Kennedy conducted over half of ADST’s interviews before his passing in January 2022 and was a true visionary in the development of the oral history program. The collection holds personal accounts from ambassadors such as Prudence Bushnell, John D. Negroponte, Harriet Elam-Thomas, Thomas Reeve Pickering, Shirley Temple Black, A. Elizabeth (Beth) Jones, and many other notable figures.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Memoir, Oral History, and Civil Services
Political Geography:: United States of America

1303. Telling America’s Story in Communist Times

Author:: Jonathan B. Rickert
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: During my three tours of duty in communist Eastern Europe (USSR 1960s, Romania 1970s, and Bulgaria 1980s), U.S. diplomats were inhibited in their contacts with local citizens. Most of us spoke the local languages and longed to establish links with a broader range of people. Although that was not impossible, any relationship that was outside of accepted channels was likely either terminated by the local authorities or came to be controlled by them. Visits to post by American experts in the cultural, educational, scientific, and other fields were always welcome, since they helped open doors to people whom it would have been difficult, if not impossible, to meet otherwise. In the case of the USSR, the 1958 U.S.-Soviet Cultural Agreement was a great boon. The size and importance of the Soviet Union meant that relatively large numbers of prominent Americans, including politicians, passed through Moscow. Those visits gave at least some local citizens a window on our country that helped to contradict the pervasive anti-American propaganda that the government promoted. Traveling U.S. exhibitions during my time there, such as “Hand Tools U.S.A.”, exposed ordinary citizens in provincial cities to Russian-speaking American guides and to our culture and values.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, and United States of America

1304. Democracy in Africa is Like a Flashlight without Batteries

Author:: Mark Wentling
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Promoting democracy has been a central pillar of U.S. foreign policy for decades. This has been true for the dozen U.S. missions in which I have served in Africa over the past half century. Unfortunately, my experiences have left me doubtful about the results achieved by the hundreds of millions of dollars the U.S. has invested to promote democracy in Africa. I arrived in 1970 as a U.S. Peace Corps Volunteer, West Africa. In my village, I learned that you obeyed the chief’s decisions no matter how illogical they might be. I also learned that it was considered impolite to criticize any of the chief’s decisions. Today it is still best to obey the chief, although he is now influenced by the central government. The overriding concern of the chief and his representative council of elders was to maintain a peaceful and stable environment, acknowledging that no progress could be achieved without stability. As central government influence increased, local leaders offered their support in return for new schools, water wells and health clinics. The goal of this tribute system of “patronage governance” was not democracy but justice, a concept embedded in the local culture while “democracy” was an imported notion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Democracy, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

1305. America, You Better Believe That Africa Matters

Author:: Charles Ray
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In the minds of most Americans and Europeans, the continent of Africa has long been seen as peripheral to world affairs, looked at either as a source of natural resources ripe for extraction or a place of poverty and violence requiring massive amounts of aid. This is a shortsighted and distorted view of a diverse continent and is long overdue for a reset. The truth is that Africa is home to some of the planet’s most strategic minerals and other resources, and that natural and manmade disasters plague the continent. It is far more diverse and dynamic than popular culture, mainstream media, and even many foreign policy makers portray it. For a lot of reasons, some of them existential, it is far from peripheral; it matters.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

1306. Don’t Leave the Russian People Behind

Author:: Renee M. Earle
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: When McDonald’s opened its restaurant on Moscow’s Pushkinskaya Square in 1990, a line of thousands of Russians eager to have a taste of the West snaked around several blocks. The company’s recent decision to suspend its operations in Russia is a sad symbol of the rapid deterioration of Russia’s links to the West caused by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. As we watch the increasingly horrific spectacle of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians dying in a senseless war, it may be difficult to think also of the Russian people. Nevertheless, in our support for Ukraine’s fight against its aggressor, we should not overlook their plight. Putin undoubtedly has supporters at home even as he engages in a war proving disastrous for his own country, but even more Russians are victims of a ruthless and relentless dictatorship. In the short term, they are unavoidably suffering as the global community levies harsh sanctions against the Putin regime. In the longer term, that same community should be prepared to offer the Russian people a way back. As a public diplomacy officer at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow during the early 1990s, I saw how many Russians welcomed the prospect of living as people in much of the rest of the world. In those years, a diplomatic tit-for-tat barred Russian nationals from working inside the embassy. American officers consequently not only carried out normal diplomatic functions, but also cleaned offices and cars. One great benefit of the do-everything-yourself period was answering all the phones ourselves, as it put us in direct contact with scores of average Russians. In the public affairs offices, we fielded calls from artists, writers, broadcasters, and educators proposing joint ventures with American counterparts. These budding entrepreneurs had mastered the term “joint venture” but not always the modalities required for a successful business partnership. Sadly, many of these ventures never materialized, but the ideas and enthusiasm were everywhere.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and United States of America

1307. Was NATO Expansion Really the Cause of Putin’s Invasion?

Author:: Ken Moskowitz
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In March, 1999, while serving as the press attache at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, I hosted a full-day international conference to mark the 50 years since NATO was established. Speakers included the Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security Council Volodymyr Horbulin, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer, U.S. Principal Deputy to the Ambassador at Large for the New Independent States Ross Wilson, the chairman of the British parliamentary committee on national security, and Sergei Karaganov, a leading Russian expert on foreign policy and now a close advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin. One could argue that the goal of such a conference sponsored by the American Embassy was to promote NATO expansion, particularly to urge Ukraine to join the Western alliance. But that is not how I remember it. Typically, U.S. government public diplomacy like this does not bluntly advocate, but rather presents information or views that would be new to our local audiences. A more forceful NATO appeal for membership for eastern European countries, including Ukraine, emerged from the NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

1308. Portuguese Diplomacy in Newark, New Jersey

Author:: Jorge Marinho, Júlio Ventura, and Miguel Pinto Guimarães
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Newark, New Jersey is rarely thought of as a diplomatic center, but four countries operate consulates there: Columbia, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Portugal. Portugal opened its Consulate General in Newark in 1965 in an effort to connect with and serve the large Portuguese community in the area. (Newark is not the only U.S. city with such a presence; it is one of 19 Portuguese diplomatic missions in the United States.) As explained in a 1995 New York Times article, “the Portuguese have been fanning out across the globe since the days of Magellan. In the late 20th century, many have headed straight for Newark.” According to former Portuguese ambassador Júlio Vilela, Portugal cannot separate its diplomatic activity from immigrants, given that, historically, it is a country of outward migration that has forged relations with peoples on every continent since its founding in 1143.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Diaspora, Soft Power, and Community Engagement
Political Geography:: Portugal and United States of America

1309. Spreading Americana in a Post-Soviet World

Author:: Robert Baker
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: My 1990 visit to Russia was revelatory. As Director of the U.S. Information Agency’s (USIA) Regional Program Office in Vienna, I traveled to all the post-communist European countries to determine how our printing, photographic, computer, management, exhibit and library services could assist our embassies there. Russia was a world of chaos, crooks, collapse, and courage in those years. I walked through downtown Moscow past dumpy, shabby women in bulging, thick coats. They carried string bags with one cabbage, a few potatoes, and rarely, a small, bloody paper packet of meat. They shoved through the crowds on broad sidewalks caught in swirling snow. People, mostly women, stood almost shoulder to shoulder on the sidewalk selling: a single dining room chair, a half dozen slips, a couple pairs of old shoes, an old bra. I had never seen such desperate, tiny commerce outside the world’s poorest countries. Seventy years of harsh, often cruel, Soviet rule followed communism’s early idealism. It fed corruption, and eventually brought economic collapse and the end for Soviet government by 1991. Central planning for a vast economy was too difficult to manage efficiently.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Memoir, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:: United States of America and Post-Soviet Europe

1310. Restarting Educational Exchanges with China after the Cultural Revolution

Author:: John C. Thomson
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: When I arrived in Beijing in June 1978, foreign diplomats were forbidden to visit any schools or universities and they had minimal contact with government organizations. Although both the U.S. and China were interested in resuming academic exchanges, the obstacles were daunting. I was assigned to the U.S. Liaison Office (USLO), an unofficial organization representing U.S interests in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the absence of an official embassy. After establishment of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries in January 1979, I became part of the newly opened U.S. embassy in China, the successor to the Liaison Office. I am pleased to have worked directly on the restoration of U.S.-PRC educational exchanges after a hiatus of 30 years that followed the communist take-over in 1949.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Education, Foreign Exchange, and Cultural Revolution
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

1311. A Salute to Cultural Diplomacy and Those Who Make It Possible

Author:: Renee M. Earle
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: What do James Brown, Joseph Heller, Mikhail Baryshnikov, and the U.S. Sixth Fleet Band have in common? They all supported U.S. cultural diplomacy abroad. Not all of our cultural ambassadors are as famous— most are not — but together a very wide variety of American artists, performers, and writers have had positive impact on the image of the United States throughout the world. U.S. cultural diplomacy also includes many examples of citizen diplomacy and philanthropy, whether in partnership with U.S. embassies or independently. Together, these programs positively project our values abroad.
Topic:: Culture, Soft Power, and Cultural Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Turkey, France, North America, Brussels, Czech Republic, and United States of America

1312. Restructuring Our Assistance in Least Developed Countries

Author:: Mark Wentling
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: U.S. missions abroad tend to adhere to a basic organizational structure, with an ambassador, deputy chief of mission, political, economic, management, consular and public diplomacy offices. While many embassies, especially those in Least Developed Countries (LDCs), also include development specialists from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), more focus on high-impact development assistance is needed by the poorest countries. Ideally, U.S. missions in seriously underdeveloped countries should be organized in such a way as to focus on developmental progress. For example, when it comes to appointing ambassadors to LDCs, consideration should be given to those qualified to oversee and participate in a development program aimed at moving the host country up the ranks of the UN’s human development index (HDI).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Public Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States of America

1313. Our National Devaluation of Diplomacy

Author:: Thomas E. McNamara
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: A recent RAND Report on “The Foreign Service and American Public Opinion” (https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1845-1.html) reveals how little the American public knows about diplomacy and foreign affairs. For the report, which goes much deeper than most foreign policy polls, RAND surveyed representative samples of Americans over a two-year period (2020-2021). The results are not surprising, but they are worrisome for anyone interested in national security policy and prosperity. This report and conclusions highlight the deep ignorance of Americans about diplomacy, its policies, and its practice. The “no opinion” responses in some polls and the “I-never-knew-that” replies in some focus groups—even on basics—can range from 25% to 50%.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Public Opinion, and Civil Services
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1314. Language and Cultural Immersion Build Effective Communication

Author:: Bruce K. Byers
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Foreign language competency and cultural understanding are acknowledged as important skills for diplomats. While many Foreign Service Officers receive such training in Washington before going to an overseas assignment, few have the opportunity for the deep cultural and language immersion that I enjoyed as part of my first assignment for the U.S. Information Agency (USIA). In early 1972, after completing seven months of Farsi language training at the Foreign Service Institute (FSI), I was posted to USIS Tehran. My family and I arrived shortly before the Persian new year, Now Ruz, and took up residence in an embassy apartment. Dave Dubois, the Public Affairs Officer, with the concurrence of the embassy Deputy Chief of Mission and USIA’s Office of Near East and South Asian Affairs (NEA), had arranged for me to spend some time with a host family in Isfahan. It was a “deep immersion” experience in which I would continue learning Farsi and experience life with a local family for several weeks.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Culture, Language, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

1315. Retail Politics in Trinidad and Tobago

Author:: Jonathan B. Rickert
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Trinidad and Tobago when I served at Embassy Port of Spain (1977-1980) was a pleasant Caribbean backwater. U.S. interests were minimal—major American companies there, Amoco and Texaco, were well able to look after their own interests. Forty years later, the economy remains heavily dependent on the energy sector. Map of Trinidad & TobagoThe Consular Section, with six officers, was by far the embassy’s largest and busiest. I handled the political reporting on the opposition parties and contacts with the local trade unions, while a colleague was responsible for economic/commercial matters. The Ambassador and Deputy Chief of Mission dealt with the higher levels of the Government of Trinidad and Tobago (GOTT), but in fact their interactions were fairly limited.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economy, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago, and United States of America

1316. Remembering Mikhail Gorbachev and the 1991 Coup

Author:: Renee M. Earle
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Monday, August 19, 1991. The morning started like most of my days as a press officer at Embassy Moscow. I rose early, made coffee, and turned on the TV to check the news. The similarity of routine quickly vanished. Instead of the news, Soviet state TV was broadcasting the Swan Lake ballet, often a sign in the Soviet Union that something was amiss. Through the open window, I heard a strange, rumbling noise coming from the direction of the Ostankino TV tower, located just a few minutes from my apartment complex. I thought they might be having technical difficulties. Thirty-one years ago, there were no home computers or cell phones to help me unravel what was going on. I went to my car in the outside parking lot and started the half-hour drive south to the embassy. It was only then that I saw the Soviet military tanks, which rolled alongside the busy morning traffic past the embassy in central Moscow to their nearby destinations, including the “White House,” the Russian Parliament building, not far from the back of the embassy.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Coup, Memoir, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:: Russia, Soviet Union, and United States of America

1317. U.S. Relations With China: DACOR Conference Summary

Author:: Keith McCormick and Emma W. Sandifer
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: As relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) loom ever larger for the U.S., DACOR’s annual conference in 2022 focused on “Balancing Competing Interests in U.S. Relations With China.” The Washington-based organization of foreign affairs professionals brought together diplomats and academics to explore the idea that U.S. policy toward China needs to pursue cooperation in some areas and competition in others while simultaneously confronting Beijing and preparing to deter or win a conflict, if it comes to war. The hybrid conference, with some attendees present at the historic DACOR-Bacon house and others joining online, was conducted under Chatham House Rules. The keynote address, by Ambassador (ret.) J. Stapleton Roy, was live-streamed to a classroom of political science faculty and students at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Conference
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1318. U.S.-China Agricultural Dialogue in Des Moines Shows Potential for Improving Relations During a Critical Period

Author:: Kenneth M. Quinn
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Iowa’s connections with China—highlighted by a 1985 visit by a young Xi Jinping, now 37 years later General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and President of the People’s Republic of China—make for an unusual and much-needed bright spot in today’s dismal U.S.–PRC relations. What better place than the leading agricultural state to look for collaboration in agricultural research and global development needed to face the global challenges of our time? In April 2022, Sino-American diplomatic relations took center stage in Iowa’s capital city, as three ambassadors—Nicholas Burns, the new Biden Administration envoy in Beijing, Qin Gang, the PRC ambassador to the U.S., and former U.S. ambassador to the PRC Terry Branstad—all participated in the U.S.-China Agricultural Dialogue that I co-organized and moderated.
Topic:: Agriculture, Diplomacy, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

1319. Fighting Corruption in the Arab World Should Be a U.S. Priority

Author:: Imad K. Harb
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In June of 2021, the Biden administration announced that it would be establishing the fight against corruption as a core concept in US national security and a pillar of its foreign policy.1 The following December, it launched the “US Strategy on Countering Corruption” as a “whole-of- government” initiative to, among other objectives, curb illicit financing, hold corrupt actors accountable, and improve diplomatic engagement and leverage foreign assistance in the pursuit of its policy goals.2 With the United States the premier actor in international politics and influence, the administration set out to formulate strategies, lay down markers, and implement policies that can help at least make a dent in the scourge of corruption around the world. Today, the task of fighting international corruption must include the countries of the Arab world, most of which are close political, economic, and strategic partners of the United States. Corruption in the region is eroding what little is left of social and political stability. From bribery to influence peddling, and from the use of public and official power for private gain to interference with the judiciary, the region’s corruption requires diligent internal and international efforts to address it. Democracy and economic development depend first on the striving of the region’s populations to ensure and protect their human rights, but also on an active role played by the United States government and its many institutions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Corruption, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, North Africa, and United States of America

1320. Ukrainians to Putin’s Empire: Hell No!

Author:: Dick Virden
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Watching Ukrainians bravely risk life and limb for their country, I’m reminded of what I saw during assignments as a diplomat in Poland and Romania. For more than four decades after World War II, those countries—and the others of Eastern Europe—were governed mainly by Soviet puppets. I recall friends tapping their shoulders to mock the epaulettes of collaborators playing for the other side. These were oppressed lands then. Political rights were scant, and stagnant economies made regime claims of a socialist paradise transparent nonsense. The government had long since lost the respect of the governed, what Chinese call the mandate of the people. U.S. policy in those days was to try to keep hope alive by quietly encouraging those opposed to the communist regime and using the leverage we had to help them gain greater space to operate. For example, our diplomats sought to identify independent-minded leaders to include in our Fulbright, International Visitor, and other exchange programs. We chipped away at the regime’s information monopoly through short-wave radio, personal contact, and distribution of uncensored material such as bootleg copies of Newsweek. And we appeared at events like the annual opening of the academic year at the Catholic University of Lublin, then the only independent institution of higher learning in Eastern Europe.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Memoir, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Soviet Union, and United States of America

1321. Gorbachev: Humanism and Hubris

Author:: Raymond F. Smith
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The recent death of Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, revived interest in his legacy. Praised by the West for his reforms and role in bringing the cold war to an end, in Russia he is often seen as responsible for the collapse of the Soviet Union, an event described by Vladimir Putin as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” Gorbachev received the Western accolade of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1990. Less than a year later, in August, 1991, a group of senior Communist Party and government officials launched a coup d’état to depose him. Gorbachev might have forestalled that attempt if he had taken more seriously information that the U.S. government had passed to him two months earlier.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Memoir, and Mikhail Gorbachev
Political Geography:: Soviet Union and United States of America

1322. Putin’s Next, Best Move – The Logic and Limits of Russian Action on Ukraine

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: Moscow will act when and if it declares that the West has escalated contention rather than responding positively to its entreaties – principally those regarding NATO expansion and implementation of the Minsk II agreement. Recent, new US/NATO troop deployments and weapon transfers to Ukraine may already count as relevant escalation. Russian forces surrounding Ukraine stand at an exceptionally high level of readiness and significantly exceed the scale of previous deployments. Nonetheless, a full-scale invasion aiming to seize the whole of Ukraine is highly unlikely. Indeed, Russian action may involve no more than large-scale conveyance of weapons and munitions to the rebel areas, possibly along with an influx of “volunteers.” Several other options ranging between these two are discussed below.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

1323. And So Now… It’s War?

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: The battle within Ukraine and the USA-Russia contest over it has returned Europe to the darkest, most ominous period of the 1947-1989 Cold War. That this should happen with both the United States and Russia barreling grimly forward reflects a singular failure of diplomacy and common sense. There were two recent points in time when positive leadership might have turned us away from the path of disaster. Fortunately, one of these is not yet foreclosed. Movement toward resolution begins with recognizing that all sides, all stakeholders share fault for the current crisis. And no side has told the whole truth of it. Without question, Russian intervention in Ukraine’s civil conflict violates international law. Although Russia has the right to defend itself from attack, this proviso does not apply in the current situation. The annexation of Crimea was illegal, as is Russian intervention in the Donbass. This is indisputable.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

1324. The “Stable Nuclear Deterrent” collapses in the Ukraine War

Author:: Charles Knight
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: The comforting narrative of a dependable and stable nuclear deterrence between the US and Russia has been thrown into disarray by the War in Ukraine. This narrative, propagated widely in the years following the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, held that both the Super Powers fully appreciated that they could not “win” a nuclear battle and, therefore, would avoid direct conventional warfare, which might then quickly escalate into nuclear war. In a necessary corollary, it was thought that Russia and the US would make every effort to avoid a conventional war in Europe. Why? Because there are so many paths to escalation to nuclear war in Europe. Elsewhere in the world, US and Russian interests were more diffuse and, therefore, not so vital.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

1325. Everything Counts: Building a Control Regime for Nonstrategic Nuclear Warheads in Europe

Author:: Miles A. Pomper, William Alberque, Marshall L. Brown Jr., William M. Moon, and Nikolai Sokov
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration insisted in arms control talks with Russia that a follow-on agreement to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) should cover all nuclear weapons and that such an agreement should focus on the nuclear warheads themselves. This would represent a significant change from previous agreements, which focused on delivery vehicles, such as missiles. The United States has been particularly interested in potential limits on nonstrategic nuclear warheads (NSNW). Such weapons have never been subject to an arms control agreement. Because Russia possesses an advantage in the number of such weapons, the US Senate has insisted that negotiators include them in a future agreement, making their inclusion necessary if such an accord is to win Senate approval and ultimately be ratified by Washington. In the wake of Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine conflict, such demands can only be expected to grow if and when US and Russian negotiators return to the negotiating table.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

1326. Russian-Turkish Relations and Implications for U.S. Strategy and Operations

Author:: Hanna Notte and Chen Kane
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: Russia and Turkey’s complex relationship has significant implications for U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) strategic interests. The two states cooperate, deconflict, and compete in multiple theatres within Turkey’s extended neighborhood, which straddles United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM), United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), and United States European Command (USEUCOM) areas of responsibility (AORs). 1 Their bilateral strategic trade has created mutual dependencies and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and tourism. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has many implications for the Russia-Turkey relationship. While engaging actively with Russia and stoking fears that its commercial ties with Moscow could serve Russia’s evasion of Western sanctions, Turkey has also provided TB2 Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, invoked the Montreux Convention, and offered itself as a mediator on various operational issues in the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result of these steps, Turkey’s leverage over both Russia and NATO allies has increased since February 2022. From a U.S. perspective, the implications have been mixed as Turkey has translated its increased leverage into foreign policy steps that threaten to undermine U.S. interests and NATO cohesion. Turkey remains of significant importance to the United States in enabling its interests in the three aforementioned AORs, preventing third actors like China and Iran from operating in the “seams,” and generating an enhanced, unified, and credible NATO capability and capacity in response to Russian aggression. It follows that Turkey’s interplay with Russia in its extended neighborhood has far-reaching implications for the United States and NATO. This study aims to shed light on this relationship, its likely trajectory over the coming decade, its implications for U.S. strategic interests, and how the United States and NATO might shape the Russia- Turkey interplay to their advantage.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America

1327. Reframing U.S. Military Strategy Toward Africa

Author:: John Griswold
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: How can the U.S. military best support the achievement of national strategic objectives in Africa? While much of the foreign policy discourse since President Biden’s inauguration has focused on China’s growing military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, curbing the effects of climate change, and the implications of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, scant attention has been paid to U.S. engagement in Africa. It is noteworthy that the Biden administration’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG) mentions a continent of more than 1.3 billion people — whose population is expected to double by 2050 — in one paragraph out of 23 substantive pages...
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

1328. The Digital Asset Battlefield Between the United States and China

Author:: Michael B Greenwald
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: United States dollar dominance has underpinned American economic and geopolitical leadership since the Second World War. The tremendous structural and geopolitical advantages the United States derives from the hegemony of the dollar have contributed substantially to Washington’s military power, alliances, and strong hand in trade relations with other states. However, the convergence of a shifting international balance of power and the accelerated digitalization of the world economy will have major implications for this pillar of American strength.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Currency, Strategic Competition, and Digitization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1329. War on Corruption

Author:: Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Kleptocracies seem to enjoy powerful coherence between their domestic and foreign policies, given that they wield power at home and abroad through the same corrupt assemblage of actors, networks, tactics, and resources. By prioritizing the fight against corruption and kleptocracy, the United States can similarly pursue the most internally coherent grand strategy since it combined the containment of communism with neoliberal deregulation to win the Cold War. Doing so will require deeply reorienting foreign and domestic policy priorities by featuring the opposite side of the U.S. economic model, with less cowboy and more sheriff: well-regulated clean capitalism under the rule of law.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Corruption, Capitalism, Grand Strategy, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1330. Stagnant Things: The Department of Defense's Response to Information Warfare

Author:: Thomas Whittaker and Mike Schwille
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The information environment — too often a buzzword for defense technology firms and military academics — is the highly energetic arena where foreign adversaries and non-state actors alike shape the narrative of the great power competition.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Non State Actors, Strategic Competition, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1331. Sanctions Run Amok – The Undermining of U.S. Power

Author:: Keith A. Preble
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Well into its second year, the Biden administration has continued to grapple with persistent foreign policy challenges while new ones have emerged: North Korea has not curtailed its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs; negotiations with Iran on resuscitating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) remain stalled; and a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine may signal a potential invasion and full-scale conflict. In confronting these and other challenges, the United States continues to use economic sanctions as a mean of punishing, signaling, and coercing rivals into changing their foreign policy behaviors. As a tool of American economic power, policymakers often see sanctions as “Goldilocks” instruments that are “just right,” albeit ones that require time and patience to facilitate policy change.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, and Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

1332. The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: A Conversation with Matthew Kroenig

Author:: Matthew Kroenig and Dylan Land
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Matthew Kroenig is Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His latest book is The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy Versus Autocracy From the Ancient World to the U.S. and China. Dr. Kroenig has served in several positions in the U.S. Department of Defense and the intelligence community in the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations, including in the Strategy, Middle East, and Nuclear and Missile Defense offices in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the CIA’s Strategic Assessments Group. Dr. Kroenig is also Director of the Global Strategy Initiative and Deputy Director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Interview
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1333. Assessing Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) Initiatives Across the West – Lessons Learned

Author:: Elena Savoia, Michael King, Anna Ekström, Diána Hughes, Adam Baker, and Lauren LaBrique
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) programs worldwide aim to prevent individuals from engaging in terrorism. However, such programs vary widely in their approaches, which range from public awareness campaigns aimed at educating populations about the risks of violent extremist ideologies to in-person interventions for individuals who have already been radicalized and, in some instances, engaged in terrorist activities.
Topic:: Terrorism, Radicalization, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

1334. The War on Terror Continues

Author:: Jytte Klausen
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Do jihadist terror organizations still represent a serious threat? If so, do they pose a serious threat to the West? The United States and Europe suffered few attacks during the past decade, and yet more jihadist groups are launching more attacks over a larger portion of the world than ever before. They all trace their origins and allegiances to al-Qaeda and its breakaway faction, the Islamic State, also known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)...
Topic:: Al Qaeda, Islamic State, War on Terror, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

1335. News Media and its Influence on the American Debate over War and Peace

Author:: Violet Gienger
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Even the most diligent news consumers, flooded with information, disinformation, and infotainment, miss key elements of the biggest stories. Journalists, pressed by deadlines and ever-shrinking resources — due to staff cuts and the elimination of foreign bureaus and even copy desks, for example — leave crucial gaps in coverage. The result is a dearth of the kinds of in-depth, well-rounded news and accountability journalism that the American public and their leaders depend on for decision-making in a democracy.
Topic:: Democracy, Media, News Analysis, Journalism, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1336. Three Presidents, Three Flawed Iran Policies, and the Path Ahead

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: News reports of a nearing breakthrough in the Iran nuclear talks will trigger sighs of relief, but the deal will likely prove disappointing on many fronts. With Russia’s horrific onslaught against Ukraine, news reports of a likely breakthrough in the Iran nuclear talks will trigger sighs of relief. But sadly, that relief will be misplaced. U.S. negotiators have already admitted that the forthcoming deal will not match the nonproliferation achievements of the 2015 agreement, and no official has even hinted that the revised text will either penalize Iran for its flagrant violation of its commitments or address the range of problems that have emerged since the original deal was reached. In this Policy Note, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff delivers a powerful, bipartisan critique, assessing how and why three successive American presidents started their terms with sound ideas on Iran and leverage to advance them but accepted either flawed agreements or America’s own isolation. Looking beyond a new Iran deal, he proposes an urgent agenda: scrupulous enforcement; a renewed push for a “longer, stronger” agreement; early preparation for the day after restrictions expire; close coordination with regional partners to counter Iran’s rising influence; and outreach to the Iranian people, who will see little benefit from the windfall in sanctions relief likely coming to Tehran. American leadership, determination, and resilience, he notes, will be essential.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

1337. The U.S.-Egypt Military Relationship: Complexities, Contradictions, and Challenges

Author:: David Witty
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Shared security interests, such as maintaining and expanding Arab-Israel peace efforts, can serve as the foundation of future ties. Since the Egypt-Israel peace treaty was signed in 1979, Washington has given Cairo more than $50 billion in military grant aid. But a strong military relationship has raised as many questions as it has answered: about the ethics of working with an increasingly harsh authoritarian government; about the partnership’s success in achieving American interests in the region; about the Egyptian military’s willingness to reform; and about whether conditioned aid can spur political change. Correspondingly, the post–Arab Spring years have seen rough patches, caused by U.S. limitations on military aid following the 2013 overthrow of Mohamed Morsi, America’s chafing at Egyptian human rights abuses, and Cairo’s eventual turn toward less restrictive partners such as Moscow and Paris for military supplies. In this comprehensive Policy Focus, David M. Witty—a retired U.S. Army Special Forces colonel and foreign area officer—probes the complexities of the U.S.-Egypt military rapport before proposing that Washington base its future ties on shared security interests, including Arab-Israel peace efforts, negotiation of ceasefires between Israel and the Palestinians, and permission for U.S. military transit of Egyptian waterways and airspace.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: North Africa, Egypt, and United States of America

1338. The Necessary U.S. Role in Fixing the Baghdad-Kurdistan Energy Dispute

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A targeted intervention could aid American interests and the global effort to find a substitute for Russian and Iranian oil and gas. On February 15, 2022, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court ruled that the 2007 oil and gas law for the Kurdistan Region was unconstitutional, requiring a review of numerous production sharing contracts and oil sales agreements. If the case prevents oil exports via Iraqi Kurdistan, then the world market will almost immediately lose 500,000 barrels per day, triggering higher oil prices, expanded windfalls for Russia and Iran, the collapse of Iraqi Kurdistan’s economy, and a dangerous turn in Baghdad’s ties with Erbil and with Ankara. In this timely Policy Note, Iraq expert Michael Knights calls for the United States to act with other concerned states to resolve the Baghdad-Erbil energy crisis. In doing so, he categorizes the sub-issues of FSC implementation on a spectrum from higher to lower consensus, and explains both sides’ views in an unvarnished, direct manner. A targeted intervention by the United States and its partners, the author argues, could guide the dispute toward a long-overdue resolution that greatly aids U.S. interests and the global effort to find a substitute for Russian and Iranian oil and gas.
Topic:: Oil, Gas, Crisis Management, Disputes, and Energy
Political Geography:: Iraq, North America, United States of America, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

1339. U.S. Counterterrorism Reimagined: Tracking the Biden Administration's Effort to Reform How America Addresses Violent Extremism

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This collection reveals the growing prevalence of nonkinetic tools while exploring the balance authorities must strike between preventing attacks and protecting civil rights. Two very different events epitomized the CT/CVE challenge facing the incoming Biden administration in 2021: the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol and the August U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. The first reflected the sharp rise in violent extremism from white supremacists, anti-government actors, and other similar figures, while the second presented the disturbing prospect of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan as a haven for Islamist terrorism. These watershed moments occurred as Washington sought to free up funds to address a wide range of equally important national security issues, from the rise of China and Russia, to climate change, domestic infrastructure needs, and public health issues. The tenth volume of The Washington Institute’s Counterterrorism Lecture Series, edited by Matthew Levitt, covers the period January 2021 to March 2022. While revealing a trend toward nonkinetic tools—as indicated by a full-day Institute panel devoted to the subject—the selections also probe the delicate but necessary balance officials must strike between preventing attacks and protecting civil rights.
Topic:: Terrorism, Civil Rights, Joe Biden, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1340. China's Security Presence in the Middle East: Redlines and Guidelines for the United States

Author:: Grant Rumley
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A more assertive Beijing means that Washington must work harder to protect its traditional partnerships and secure sensitive information. The U.S. competition with China has reached the Middle East, where the longstanding American security infrastructure faces an increasing array of Chinese arms sales, military deployments, and investments in critical infrastructure. Beijing is keen to strengthen its own relationships in the region and views any reliance on the U.S. security umbrella as a “profound strategic vulnerability.” Yet Washington rightly regards these activities with skepticism, since an expanded Chinese security presence threatens to erode traditional partnerships and compromise sensitive information. For instance, discussions to sell F-35 aircraft to the UAE broke down over American concerns about Chinese-Emirati cooperation, including in the security realm. In this timely Policy Note—illustrated with informative graphics—security expert Grant Rumley traces the contours of China’s Middle East ambitions and where the perils lie for the United States. An effective U.S. response, he contends, will require assessing risk in each specific theater and acting appropriately, thereby ensuring a productive, sustainable American presence in this pivotal region.
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Partnerships, and Weapons
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

1341. Fighting Jihadists By, With, and Through U.S. Partners: Lessons Learned and Future Prospects

Author:: Ido Levy
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Special forces have succeeded especially in such missions, but any BWT effort requires some U.S. ground presence to achieve its goals. As part of its bid to end Middle East “forever wars,” the United States has employed a “by, with, and through” (BWT) doctrine for fighting jihadist adversaries. Such operations rely on local partner forces to assume the bulk of the hard ground combat, sometimes with U.S. accompaniment, while American advisors provide support through training, intelligence, heavy air and artillery assets, equipment, funding, and logistics. BWT missions have seen success over the past two decades in theaters such as Iraq (with the Counter Terrorism Service), Syria (with the Syrian Democratic Forces), and Somalia (with the Danab Brigade). But they do not succeed on their own and must be guided by several principles, including a serious U.S. commitment, alignment of American and partner interests, and strong interpersonal relations between advisors and local actors. In this tightly argued Policy Note, military analyst Ido Levy emphasizes the particular success of U.S.-created special forces in missions against jihadist forces. But he cautions that BWT efforts cannot thrive without some U.S. ground presence and, as occurred in Afghanistan, would likely fail amid an outright American withdrawal.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Military Affairs, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

1342. Beyond Elections: Evolving Arab Public Opinion on Democracy and Human Rights

Author:: Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: U.S. efforts in the region stand a better chance of success if they consider rising demand for accountable governance, skepticism about democratic institutions, and various nation-specific trends. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the fourth essay in the series—covering public opinion on democracy and human rights in Arab states—Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock note a cooling toward democratic institutions, a trend undoubtedly driven by failures in Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq. They discuss corresponding distrust in legislative bodies and high frustration with corrupt governance. Islamist leaders, they observe, come in for increasingly sharp critique. All in all, the findings emphasize a strong public demand for better governance outcomes and, in turn, the benefits as well as limits of U.S. democracy and human rights promotion in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Islam, Politics, Public Opinion, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

1343. Iran's Nuclear Hedging Strategy: Shaping the Islamic Republic's Proliferation Calculus

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Tehran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program may offer opportunities to stoke regime concerns about the potential costs of moving forward. Since halting its crash nuclear weapons program in 2003, the Islamic Republic has pursued a cautious hedging strategy that has enabled it to become an advanced nuclear threshold state, while also avoiding a military confrontation with the United States and Israel. Yet Iran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program in order to ease pressure—and in turn to pursue more urgent objectives—may help Washington constrain Tehran’s nuclear ambitions by amplifying its concerns about the potential risks and costs of proliferating. In this Policy Focus, military analyst Michael Eisenstadt surveys the evolution of Iran’s nuclear hedging strategy and suggests ways for the United States, along with its allies and partners, to shape the regime’s proliferation calculus with the goal of preventing an Iranian breakout and a nuclearized Middle East.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

1344. Reexamining U.S. Aid to the Middle East: Ideas for Advancing Both Governance and Democracy

Author:: Ben Fishman
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Massive U.S. investment has failed to improve outcomes since the Arab Spring uprisings. A more targeted, sensitive approach could yield better results and promote regional stability. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the fifth essay in the series, Ben Fishman probes the conundrum of U.S. democracy and governance assistance, wherein billions of dollars have failed to improve outcomes on a range of measures since the Arab Spring uprisings. The former regional National Security Council director traces U.S. support for democratic movements from its Cold War origins to the present day, concluding that a more effective approach must better align policy and spending priorities, account for the challenges facing individual countries, and focus on supporting local governing bodies, independent media, and anti-corruption efforts. Otherwise, the region could well become less free and more prone to fiercer future uprisings.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, Governance, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

1345. Rhetoric Meets Reality in Jawlani’s Push for Self-Sufficiency

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As a key UN vote approaches, Washington should push Turkey to help promote a diverse, balanced economy in HTS-controlled northwest Syria. On July 10, a United Nations vote will decide the future of the cross-border aid mechanism for northwest Syria, an area run by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The mechanism—which facilitates aid to northwest Syria via Turkey without having to go through Damascus—faces the prospect of nonrenewal for the first time since it was created in 2014, as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A failure to renew the mechanism would exacerbate an already daunting humanitarian situation in northwest Syria, where some three-fourths of the population consists of internally displaced persons (IDPs). While aid will likely continue on a far more limited basis if Russia vetoes the mechanism, from a U.S. perspective a more self-reliant HTS-run territory requiring less international assistance would actually be far preferable to a situation in which aid renewal remains subject to periodic dramas. Over the past roughly six years, HTS has transformed itself from an al-Qaeda branch into something resembling a typical regional state governing body, with the group engaging in human rights violations and embracing inflammatory rhetoric. To begin with, it has focused increasingly on developing local institutions and the economy. The group’s strides in governance have been facilitated, in part, by the March 2020 Turkey-Russia ceasefire agreement, which more or less froze the conflict line. Since then, HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani has reiterated the value he places on self-sufficiency and constructing a new polity and society that does not rely on outside help. If HTS and its civilian-led Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) actually followed through on Jawlani’s ideas, locals could find other avenues to support themselves. Yet one must acknowledge at this point that HTS has not matched its lofty rhetoric with efforts to develop indigenous capabilities. Instead, it has worked hard to monopolize economic power.
Topic:: Politics, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

1346. The Israeli Government Falls: New Election and Implications for U.S.-Israel Relations

Author:: David Makovsky and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Watch an expert webcast examining the collapse of the year-old coalition government, the impact on President Biden’s upcoming Middle East trip, and the potential consequences for broader U.S.-Israel policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

1347. Biden Sees Oil as Key to His Visit, but Does Riyadh Agree?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The administration has signaled its intentions for the trip well in advance, but the realities of Saudi oil capacity and global energy forecasts should temper any U.S. expectations of a quick fix. The centrality of energy security to America’s historical relationship with Saudi Arabia is under strain. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait thirty-two years ago and threatened nearby Saudi oil fields, King Fahd ignored the pleas of cautious senior princes who wanted a delay to discuss the issue and instead requested Washington’s immediate help—which he quickly received in the form of half a million U.S. troops and a multinational force. It was a perfect illustration of the longstanding strategic understanding between the two governments: Saudi Arabia will supply the world with oil, and the United States will defend the House of Saud.
Topic:: Economics, Oil, Joe Biden, and Energy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

1348. Scoring Iraq’s New Government: Metrics for Preserving U.S. Interests

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The protracted post-election process has been a step backward for Iraqi democracy, so Washington will need to closely monitor the new leadership’s actions and hold Baghdad to measurable benchmarks. Iraq’s stalled government formation process finally lurched forward on October 17, with new president Abdul Latif Rashid taking office more than a year after the 2021 election. Incoming prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will now try to ratify his cabinet during a parliamentary session on October 22. If he succeeds as expected, Baghdad will finally close perhaps its most troubled electoral cycle yet—a chapter in which a clear popular vote nearly failed to produce a peaceful transition of power, and the losing factions spurred the biggest winner to abandon parliament through corrupt judicial rulings. Under these sad circumstances, the U.S. government and its partners need to quietly but insistently push for early, inclusive elections to restore legitimacy to the democratic process. Simultaneously, all of Iraq’s friends must watch the new government like a hawk to ensure that militias and corrupt politicians do not attempt to purge technocrats, conduct witch hunts against Western-leaning officials, cover up past graft, or initiate a new wave of “asset-stripping” via state institutions. After many false alarms, the survival of Iraq’s close relationship with the West is truly at stake right now, and only firm expectation-setting can ensure that the partnership continues.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, and Military
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

1349. The Tenacity of Young Iranians in the Protest Movement

Author:: Haleh Esfandiari
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Despite the regime's crackdown, Iranian protestors are showing unprecedented resilience and unity in their demands, making the international community's next steps even more crucial. Once again, Iranians have come out into the streets to protest against their government, its policies, and its leaders. Once again they face a regime that has proved itself tone-deaf to widespread public discontent—responding instead with brutality, arrests, mass trials, and executions. But this recent wave of protests has proved different. The regime is being confronted by its own children—a generation of young women and men who seek not just reform, not just an easing of controls, but a regime change. The protest movement was triggered when 22-year old Mahsa Amini died while in police custody, beaten to death by the morality police on September 16 because the form of her hijab was not to their liking. Protests quickly erupted immediately after her death, and they are now in their third month.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Reform, Democracy, Economy, Youth, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

1350. China Makes a Move in the Middle East: How Far Will Sino-Arab Strategic Rapprochement Go?

Author:: Sine Ozkarasahin
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: With a well-planned strategy and a careful exploitation of the gaps opened by U.S. foreign policy shifts, China has successfully increased its role as a strategic actor in the Middle East, including by gaining a foothold in the regional arms market. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s early December visit to Saudi Arabia, upon King Salman’s invitation, exemplifies the recent improvement in Sino-Arab ties (Xinhua, December 8). While in Saudi Arabia, Xi initiated two new multilateral forums intended to strengthen engagement between China and the Arab world: the China-Arab States Summit and the China-Gulf Cooperation Council summit (Xinhua, December 11). In addition to deepening political rapprochement between Beijing and several regional countries, China is simultaneously establishing crucial military-strategic ties with key Middle Eastern states. Chinese-made drones are already present in the arsenals of multiple Arab countries and technological cooperation between Beijing and its regional counterparts is rapidly increasing. The most striking example in this regard was the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) revocation of the F-35 deal that constrained its cooperation with the Chinese tech and telecommunications giant Huawei over 5G technology (Al Arabiya News, December 14, 2021). As many Arab countries’ doubts about Washington’s commitment to regional security grow, more and more countries are increasingly open to entreaties from China.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

1351. An International Lifeline: Taiwan’s Parliamentary Outreach

Author:: Rup Narayan Das
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: For decades, China has made systematic efforts to internationally isolate Taiwan through a mix of coercion and diplomatic enticement. Taiwan, however, has broken through this isolation by engaging with other nations through robust parliamentary diplomacy in order to expand its international space and legitimacy. It is indeed an irony of contemporary history that although Taiwan fulfills the main requisites for statehood, such as territory, population and an effective governance structure, it is deprived of its rightful place in the community of nations multilaterally and also bilaterally at the behest of China. Most countries’ “One China” policies and state-to-state relationships with China preclude them from engaging in official interaction with Taipei, but the trend of parliamentary outreach between Taiwan and the rest of the world is gaining momentum. Such interactions provide opportunities for Taiwanese parliamentarians to interface with their counterparts from abroad, particularly with fellow democratic countries with which Taiwan lacks formal diplomatic relations. Moreover, these delegations have created something of an informal international parliamentary fraternity in support of Taiwan, which underscores a broader groundswell of goodwill in the international community. This article surveys some notable recent interactions in Taiwan’s expanding parliamentary diplomacy with the U.S. and other fellow democracies.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and Parliament
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and United States of America

1352. Can Beijing be Flexible on U.S. Policy?

Author:: John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: General Secretary Xi Jinping did not mention “America” in his opening report to the 20th Party Congress (Xinhua, October 16). Nevertheless, Xi made clear that China faces a difficult international environment, precipitated in large part by the U.S. challenge, which threatens the realization of national rejuvenation. For Xi, the threat appears particularly acute in two areas: technology and Taiwan. He called for winning the “battle of key core technologies” by building on breakthroughs in areas such as supercomputing and quantum computing, space exploration, nuclear energy, satellite navigation and biomedicine (Xinhuanet, October 16). On Taiwan, Xi issued a thinly veiled ultimatum to Washington, stating that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will strive for “peaceful reunification” to incorporate Taiwan into the Motherland, which he called “an inevitable requirement for realizing the great rejuvenation.” Should this approach fail, Beijing reserves the right to employ military force to counter “interference by external forces” and “Taiwan independence” separatists (Central Committee Taiwan Work Office, October 16).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1353. China’s Interests in Afghanistan One Year After the U.S. Withdrawal

Author:: Zafar Iqbal Yousafzai
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In late June, a severe earthquake struck southeastern Afghanistan. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced it would provide 50 million RMB ($7.2 million) in emergency aid, including tents, blankets, cots and other sorely needed supplies to the impacted areas (People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs (FMPRC), June 25). Beijing invests in Afghanistan to further its long-term economic, strategic and political interests. Since the U.S. withdrawal last year, China has had an opportunity to advance its interests and deepen its clout in Afghanistan. When Kabul fell, China did not condemn the move and announced that it respected the choice of the Afghan people—a sign of goodwill from Beijing to the Taliban that it subscribes to the narrative that the new government has the full support of the population (Xinhua, August 16, 2021). China has never been militarily involved in Afghanistan. Uyghur militants have found safe-haven in the country for decades, but the level of threat they pose to the PRC is debated even among Chinese analysts (China Brief, February 11). Despite such long-running concerns, Beijing was unperturbed by the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan last year. The PRC kept its embassy open through the fall of Kabul, and Beijing has sustained extensive diplomatic contact with the Taliban leadership to safeguard its security, economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan (Global Times, August 17, 2021). In fact, the PRC is seeking to carry out a complex balancing act in Afghanistan. Concerns about Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for extremist groups that could target neighboring states persist, but Beijing also perceives huge opportunities in Afghanistan’s natural resources, markets and potential to serve as a key node linking western China with South and Central Asia. In order to achieve a stable and secure Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which will advance China’s interests throughout Central Asia, Beijing needs a stable Afghanistan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Taliban, Political stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Asia, and United States of America

1354. Beijing Makes a Big Long-term Bet on Nuclear Power

Author:: John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Last fall, China suffered extensive power outages due to a combination of surging electricity demand and tight supply. A confluence of factors contributed to the energy supply shortage, but nearly all traced back to China’s struggle to manage its overdependence on coal for power generation: rising global coal prices; shuttering of old power plants as part of a push to enhance energy efficiency; emission-reduction efforts; an “unofficial” embargo on Australian coal imports due to geopolitical strife between Beijing and Canberra; and disparities in government price controls (power plants must purchase coal at market rates, but consumer prices are set in a narrow band) that incentivized plants to cease or slow operations rather than produce electricity at a financial loss (Caixin, October 12, 2021; Zaobao, July 14). In 2022, China has avoided a replay of last year’s energy crunch despite the supply shocks in the energy markets induced by the Ukraine conflict by increasing domestic coal production, exploiting the opportunity to import Russian oil and coal at discounted rates and continuing to steadily increase its renewable energy capacity. Boosting domestic coal production has been particularly essential to meet demand. This month, the National Energy Administration (NEA) reported that during the second quarter, China’s raw coal output rose 10 percent year-on-year, which the NEA highlighted as particularly noteworthy given it came on the basis of 16 percent growth in coal output in the same quarter last year (NEA, August 2). Another mitigating factor for China on the energy front has been heavy spring rainfall in many areas of the country that has increased hydropower output over 20 percent in the first half of this year—a substantial boost as hydroelectricity already accounts for about 15 percent of China’s overall energy mix (NEA, August 2; Global Times, May 5).
Topic:: Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Nuclear Power, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

1355. The Real U.S.-China 5G Contest is Just Getting Started

Author:: Philip Hsu
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On June 6, China declared the three-year anniversary of its business deployment of 5G, with the country having invested nearly 185 billion yuan in related infrastructure in 2021 alone (Xinhua Baoye, June 5). However, China’s 5G ambitions, which continue to form a substantial component of its national and international development policies, began years ago with Huawei. After Apple revolutionized the smartphone, demand for sophisticated computer “chips” and other components skyrocketed. Companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) and Foxconn capitalized on this shift to become the main pillars of Taiwan’s economy. In addition to supplying Samsung, Apple and HTC, a lesser-known, nominally private Chinese company, Huawei was also starting to make smartphones around this time using Taiwanese hardware (Nikkei Asia, 2016). Although in recent years up to 60 percent of 5G-capable Huawei phone components have been manufactured in China, which is due in large part to U.S. sanctions against it and other Chinese technology companies, a new technological Cold War is unlikely to materialize over 5G. The economic stakes over advanced computing and a new generation of telecommunications infrastructure are too high for the international community to afford any one nation or corporation primacy across the deep and diverse set of software, hardware and human capital requirements this technology will demand.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Strategic Competition, and 5G
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1356. The U.S.-China Perception Gap: A Recipe for Disaster?

Author:: Harry He
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In December, a war of words raged across the Pacific over the very meaning of the word “democracy” (China Brief, December 14, 2021). The United States held its Summit for Democracy, inviting other democracies of various stripes, while China convened its own competing “Dialogue on Democracy,” calling out the U.S. for fomenting a cold war-style global geopolitical split (CGTN, December 2, 2021; U.S. Department of State). This discourse battle exemplifies a trend in Chinese views of the U.S. that has been gradually forming over the past 15 years. The 2008 global financial crisis, ill-fated American military campaigns, and mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic have led Chinese leaders to doubt U.S. power and capabilities. Yet, Washington has held on to the belief that it is capable of shaping China’s behaviors, either through inducement or deterrence. Even as the U.S. recognizes the limits of its influence and the recent relative decline in prestige, it still sees tremendous strengths in its military and economic prowess, alliance networks, democratic values, and soft power. The perception gap between China and the U.S. concerning American power is a potential recipe for disaster. While this does not imply that conflict is imminent or unavoidable, it does make miscalculations and miscommunications in the U.S.-China relationship both more likely and more dangerous.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Discourse, and Perception
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1357. Inequality and the Decline of Small Business

Author:: Sebastian Doerr, Thomas Drechsel, and Donggyu Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: The share of income that goes to top earners has reached levels not seen in over half a century, and addressing inequality has become a central issue for policymakers. Designing policies to alleviate income disparities requires a thorough understanding of how inequality affects the economy. Somewhat surprisingly, while several studies investigate the consequences of rising income inequality for households (Auclert and Rognlie 2017, 2020; Mian et al. 2020), much less is known about how inequality affects firms. In a recent study (Doerr et al. 2022), we examine the important link between income inequality and firms’ job creation. Our analysis of US data reveals that a larger top income share hurts small firms, while benefiting larger firms. The reason is that households’ savings portfolios change with their income level. Higher income inequality leads to more household savings flowing into stocks and bonds – which are mostly used for financing by larger firms – rather than into bank deposits. In turn, as small businesses depend on banks for financing, their funding becomes more costly and they create fewer jobs. Complementing our analysis with a theoretical model, we show that by altering the allocation of household savings, rising income inequality not only hurts small firms, but suppresses overall employment. Income inequality has thereby contributed to two important macroeconomic trends: the decline in small business and the fall in the labor share, i.e., the share of total income that accrues to workers (Decker et al. 2016; Autor et al. 2020).
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Business, and Business Management
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1358. 2020 American Community Survey: Use with Caution, An Analysis of the Undercount in the 2020 ACS Data Used to Derive Estimates of the Undocumented Population

Author:: Robert Warren
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: This paper analyzes and provides estimates of the undercount of the foreign-born in the US Census Bureau’s 2020 American Community Survey (ACS). It confirms that a differential undercount occurred in the 2020 ACS. In particular, noncitizens that arrived from Central American countries after 1981 had undercount rates of 15–25 percent, but undercount of noncitizens that arrived from European countries in the same period was not detectable by the methods described in this paper. The Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) and others use ACS data to derive annual estimates of the US undocumented population. The Census Bureau recently reported that the total population count for the 2020 Census was consistent with the count for recent censuses, despite the Covid-19 pandemic and the Trump administration’s interference in the 2020 Census. Nonetheless, the accuracy of 2020 ACS data for the noncitizen population that arrived after 1981 remains a major concern given the fear generated by the Trump administration’s abusive rhetoric and anti-immigrant policies. The estimates set forth in this paper were derived by analyzing trends in annual ACS data for 2016–2020 compiled from the IPUMS website (Ruggles et al. 2021). Decennial census data cannot be used for this purpose because data on country of birth, citizenship, and year of immigration are not collected in the census. However, it is reasonable to believe that the 2020 census and the 2020 ACS experienced similar challenges because they were conducted under comparable conditions. The patterns of undercount of noncitizens described here for the 2020 ACS are likely mirrored in the 2020 census and will reduce federal funding and representation to affected cities and states for the next decade.
Topic:: Migration, Border Control, Survey, and Undocumented Population
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1359. Examining the Impact of Community Sponsorship on Early Refugee Labor Market Outcomes in the United States

Author:: Emily Crane Linn
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: As the number of refugees in need of resettlement continues to climb worldwide, advocates and policy makers are searching for ways to leverage new support from private individuals, faith groups, and community organizations to complement and extend the capacity of traditional government resettlement programs. The United States is one of many countries considering the possibility of a “private sponsorship” model, which would allow private individuals and community groups to resettle refugees independent of traditional government resettlement agencies. While this particular resettlement model has not been implemented in the United States in more than four decades, the country has a long history of community involvement in refugee resettlement. Many resettlement agencies operate vibrant community sponsorship (or co-sponsorship) programs, in which community groups partner with resettlement agencies in delivering services and material support to refugees. However, due to a lack of publicly available data, the impact of this co-sponsorship model has been woefully understudied.
Topic:: Refugees, Labor Policies, Local, and Community
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1360. Migrating through the Corridor of Death: The Making of a Complex Humanitarian Crisis

Author:: Priscilla Solano and Douglas S. Massey
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Drawing on the concept of a “complex humanitarian crisis,” this paper describes how outflows of migrants from Central America were transformed into such a crisis by intransigent immigration and border policies enacted in both Mexico and the United States. We describe the origins of the migration in U.S. Cold War interventions that created many thousands of displaced people fleeing violence and economic degradation in the region, leading to a sustained process of undocumented migration to the United States. Owing to rising levels of gang violence and weather events associated with climate change, the number of people seeking to escape threats in Central America has multiplied and unauthorized migration through Mexico toward the United States has increased. However, the securitization of migration in both Mexico and the United States has blocked these migrants from exercising their right to petition for asylum, creating a growing backlog of migrants who are subject to human rights violations and predations both by criminals and government authorities, leading migrants to label Mexican routes northward as a “corridor of death.” We draw on data from annual reports of Mexico’s Red de Documentación de las Organizaciones Defensoras de Migrantes (Network for the Documentation of Migrant Defense Organizations) to construct a statistical profile of transit migrants and the threats they face as reported by humanitarian actors in Mexico. These reports allow us to better understand the practical realities of the “complex humanitarian crisis” facing undocumented migrants, both as unauthorized border crossers and as transit migrants moving between the southern frontiers of Mexico and the United States.
Topic:: Migration, Border Control, Humanitarian Crisis, and Migrants
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

1361. Operation Neptune Spear and the Manhunt (Implications for Pakistan United States Counter Terrorism Synergism 2001-2020)

Author:: Muhammad Iqbal Roy, Abubaqar Khalid, Abdul Rehman, and Farhan Khalid
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The qualitative, descriptive & analytical study emphasis on the US military operation against Osama Bin laden the founder of Al-Qaeda, who was killed on May 1, 2011 in Bilal town compound Abbottabad Pakistan, which was purchased by Abu Ahmad Al-Kuwaiti of $50,000 during 2004-5. The former US president Bill Clinton had announced to arrest Bin Laden either live or dead in 1992. Clinton claimed that “the historic record of America does not confirm that it had even left off its foes. How the US administration stipulated a sum of $ 250 million for various military & intelligence operations to persuade Osama Bin Laden since the US started war on terror against Al-Qaida & its associates as the major culprits of the devastating events of 9/11? The Clinton’s proclamation of killing Osama Bin Laden was practically executed during Obama’s regime on May 1, 2011.The US intelligence & security agencies used Black Hawks, Navy Seals including 79 Commandos and a dog called Cairo. The Operation Neptune Spear imprinted multi-faceted implications on Pakistan’s Socio-Political and economic environment and put its credibility at the stake of trust deficit in the context of Pakistan-United States working relationship fighting against terrorism during 2001-2020. The study examines how Pakistan had to face a severe internal and external criticism and cost along with a serious retaliation of the terrorist activities i.e. suicidal attacks in the post Abbottabad operation scenario?
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), DNA, and Osama bin Laden
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and United States of America

1362. The Role of America in Crises Management: A Study of India- Pakistan Crises (2001-2019)

Author:: Salma Naz
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The enduring antagonism between Pakistan and India enlarged by thoughts of threat perception has spawned recurring crises. Because of the presence of misperceptions as well as miscalculations the possibility of an accidental clash between both nuclear powers was high. So, through the crisis management technique possible armed collision is controlled. The primary purpose of the study is to analyze the American mediation in the India-Pakistan crises. The nature of the study is qualitative because qualitative research supports explaining comprehensively and helps interpretive objectives to understand the role of America in the India-Pakistan crises. The case study method is applied for the present study and the selected era is from 2001 to 2019. Being a review study descriptive, exploratory and historical approaches are applied to discover the answers of the research questions. This research would offer a guiding structure for studying third-party mediation in the management of the crisis. Consequently, an analysis of this research will support to discover several potential finding of the American involvement in crisis management to keep strategic stability and peace in the South Asian region. But, there is no assurance that the findings and conclusions of this crisis management case study are applied to other contexts or crises.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Crisis Management, Mediation, and Perception
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, and United States of America

1363. US-Shaped World Order and Pakistan: Past, Present and Future

Author:: Syed Mohammed Ali and Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This research paper critically analyses Pakistan‟s crucial and costly relationship with the United States of America, during the three eras of bipolar, unipolar and emerging multi-polar world order. It also contemplates that a new and balanced relationship, anchored in shared bilateral economic, political and security interests built simultaneously with the status quo, emerging and resurgent great powers is more beneficial and less risky for Pakistan in future than band wagoning with a single great power or offering its total security commitment against any other great power. Total alignment with a great power not only earns the threat of other great powers but also makes Pakistan more vulnerable against economic coercion in an interdependent global economy. It also argues that Thucydides‟ Trap is not a manifest destiny and can be avoided with astute statecraft rather than provocative and dangerous risk taking strategic competition.
Topic:: Power Politics, International System, Coercion, and Cooptation
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, South Asia, India, and United States of America

1364. Pakistan-US Engagement in War on Terror and Its Implications for Pakistan's Sovereignty: An Appraisal of Indian Ocean Geo-Politics during 2001-2020

Author:: Muhammad Iqbal Roy, Abdul Rehman, and Abu Bakar
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: On September 11, 2001, the World Trade Center collapsed and the Pentagon was attacked, triggering a sustained anti-terrorism campaign around the world. A number of cases have been reported where the war on terror has adversely affected the sovereignty of the state. The war on terror has been particularly devastating to Pakistan, one of the frontline states in this conflict. This war has compromised Pakistan's sovereignty a number of times. Specifically, this paper focuses on drone strikes by US forces in Pakistan's tribal areas, including attacks on Salallah checkpoints and the killing of Osama in Abbottabad without obtaining permission or sharing information from Pakistan. There is still a lack of trust between the United States and Pakistan, so it was the Pakistani government's responsibility to protect its regional interests before entering this war and deciding the scope of Allied Forces authority. The paper concludes that the US-led forces have undermined Pakistan's sovereignty. The document notes that intelligence cooperation, allies' trust, and the respect for national sovereignty of states are very important factors for the advancement of the antiterrorism effort.
Topic:: NATO, Sovereignty, Al Qaeda, Geopolitics, War on Terror, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, United States of America, and Indian Ocean

1365. State Building in Crisis Governance: Donald Trump and COVID-19

Author:: Nicholas F. Jacobs, Desmond King, and Sidney M. Milkis
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: Nicholas F. Jacobs, Desmond King, and Sidney M. Milkis look at the final year of the Donald Trump presidency, and the administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. They argue that Trump’s actions fit a rationale, partisan strategy endemic to executive-centered partisanship. Consequently, Trump and the Republican Party failed to suffer the repudiation that punished previous presidents when adjudged failed crisis leaders.
Topic:: Governance, Political Science, Crisis Management, Donald Trump, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Republican Party
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1366. Assessing Futures Intelligence: Looking Back on Global Trends 2025

Author:: James J. Wirtz and Roger Z. George
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: James J. Wirtz and Roger Z. George offer an assessment of the forecasts contained in Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, an unclassified report produced by the National Intelligence Council. They identify several analytical biases that shaped this effort at futures intelligence and one critical factor that is not adequately considered in U.S. futures estimates in general and Global Trends 2025 in particular.
Topic:: Intelligence, Political Science, and Assessment
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1367. The Psychological Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Military

Author:: Timothy Berger
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The U.S. government and Department of Defense (DOD) have plans to counter a pandemic and return the country to normal while reducing the impacts of the disease. These plans address psychological health, but only in a limited manner. The U.S. government and DOD’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been primarily focused on containing the virus and reducing the number of deaths and damage to the economy, with very limited attention paid to the mental health impacts in both the population and military. Historical cases suggest that the psychological impacts can be wide-ranging and enduring if not treated properly and the country does not recover from the pandemic in a deliberate fashion. While some emerging research could suggest this for the U.S. population and military, researchers have not conducted specific studies into this particular field. Therefore, the U.S. military’s mental health could be degraded by the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation measures and may be degraded for a significant period of time, reducing its readiness and ability to aid in the government’s response to the pandemic.
Topic:: Mental Health, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1368. Operation Warp Speed and the Countermeasures Acceleration Group—A Twenty-first Century Manhattan Project

Author:: John E. Hall and Nathan Packard
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: On 15 May 2020, Operation Warp Speed, later renamed the HHS-DOD COVID-19 Countermeasures Acceleration Group (CAG), was a collaboration between the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Defense (DOD), and the private sector to accelerate development, production, and distribution of effective vaccines and therapeutics to counter COVID-19 for the American people. The CAG was the nucleus of the “whole-of-America” effort to defeat COVID-19, and DOD’s contribution was essential to the success of the CAG. This article highlights the contributions made by DOD, with a focus on innovative solutions and best practices that might apply to other DOD activities.
Topic:: Crisis Management, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1369. Implications from the Guard's Extensive Use: A Cautionary Tale of 2020

Author:: Michael G. Anderson
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: From 2020–22, the National Guard saw extensive use domestically to respond to a wide variety of crises, including natural disasters, civil unrest, pandemics, and border security in addition to overseas deployments. As these emergencies perpetuate, balancing the National Guard’s use domestically and overseas is critical to preserving a sustainable and capable force. It is important for a broader understanding across local, state, and federal governments of the sustainability of these cumulative effects on this force.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Border Control, COVID-19, Civil Unrest, and National Guard
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1370. A Tale of Two Storms: U.S. Army Disaster Relief in Puerto Rico and Texas, 1899-1900

Author:: Ian Seavey
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article argues that the disaster relief efforts following hurricanes in Puerto Rico in 1899 and Galveston, Texas, in 1900 represent a watershed in American military history. These two cases highlight a critical juncture where the U.S. Army became the lead federal agency in imperial and domestic disaster relief and established a precedent that lasted well into the twentieth century. By declaring martial law, directly overseeing relief efforts, and plugging into existing social hierarchies, the Army and local elites completely reconstructed the political, economic, and social order of both locales. As this was a relatively new role for the Army, they relied on the local social hierarchy as a matter of expediency because of the absence of any existing doctrine to guide their disaster relief efforts. These Army relief efforts culminated in fostering two antidemocratic governments: a colonial regime in Puerto Rico and the first commission-style government in Galveston that upheld Jim Crow policies that were eventually replicated throughout the United States.
Topic:: Imperialism, Natural Disasters, Army, Disaster Management, Hurricane, and Jim Crow
Political Geography:: North America, United States of America, and Puerto Rico

1371. The Army and Sea Control: Reconsidering Maritime Strategy in the Twenty-first Century

Author:: Nathan A. Jennings
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article argues that the U.S. Army, rather than the traditional maritime Services, has an emergent opportunity to increase relevancy by exercising sea control to guarantee American access to global markets in competitive spaces in the twenty-first century. In a strategic environment where adversaries are developing sophisticated defenses in-depth to negate American power projection, the institution has a unique capability to create forward positions of advantage with reimagined operational fires commands at scale—as the nucleus of Joint, interagency, and multinational teams—to protect economic prosperity and preserve coalition unity in Central Europe and Southeast Asia in particular, and across the world in general. Advocating for a shift in operational approach that subordinates tactical maneuver in support of operational fires, this article differs from previous scholarship by asserting that the Army should fully embrace sea control, rather than merely providing support to the U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps, to better enable the Joint execution of American and coalition strategies in contested regions.
Topic:: Markets, Navy, Maritime, Oceans and Seas, Trade, Seapower, Army, and Marine Corps
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

1372. The Cyber Sea: Conflict and Security

Author:: Kevin Doherty
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The interchange that drives world economics in the past now intersects with and will rest on the electromagnetic spectrum’s (EMS) structure that includes cyberspace. Historically, the world’s oceans played this crucial role in great power competition, but today that key geography now sits within the EMS’s exponential exchange in services between nations for maximal productivity output in free and open markets. The U.S. military must help sustain these crucial lines of communication to channel the spirit and capacity of their nation’s people into the new activities that war calls for and efficiently employ them against a threat. Sea lines of communication were of foremost importance in this regard until now, when the EMS, tapped by cyberspace, connects the most amount of people and their productivity to win the next conflict. Cyberspace has consumed the sea.
Topic:: Communications, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, Seapower, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1373. The Maritime Silk Road: Concerns for U.S. National Security

Author:: Lindsey Madero
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article examines how China’s twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road impacts U.S. national security. While the literature frequently discusses the Belt and Road Initiative, the Maritime Silk Road and its impact on U.S. national security is notably lacking. This article examines the specific impacts on the U.S. Department of Defense and other government departments and agencies. The main findings reveal that the Maritime Silk Road is a U.S. national security concern because it degrades operational security, alters military force projection, and bypasses ethical procurement norms. The author articulates the importance of U.S. action in response to China’s global port influence, as well as recommends ways to counter each threat China imposes on the United States through the Maritime Silk Road.
Topic:: National Security, Maritime, Surveillance, Norms, Procurement, and Operational Security
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

1374. Allies through Thick and Thin: U.S. Navy Strategic Communication, 1986-1994, in Transatlantic Context

Author:: Jon-Wyatt Matlack
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: From 1986 to 1994, U.S. Navy declassified strategy documents necessarily shifted in both form and function as the Cold War ended. However, this transition also evidenced a diminished inclusion of allied navies in the Navy’s strategic conceptions. Departing from the global deterrence in the maritime strategy and pivoting toward the power projection in “. . . From the Sea,” an aloofness to alliances emerged. Reflecting on this period through the example of Germany, U.S. naval strategy will be shown to be made more “whole” when it more overtly accounts for allied naval partnership.
Topic:: NATO, Military Strategy, Navy, Maritime, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1375. Securitization of Disinformation in NATO’s Lexicon: A Computational Text Analysis

Author:: Akın Ünver and Ahmet Kurnaz
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Following the Russian meddling in the 2016 US elections, disinformation and fake news became popular terms to help generate domestic awareness against foreign information operations globally. Today, a large number of politicians, diplomats, and civil society leaders identify disinformation and fake news as primary problems in both domestic and foreign policy contexts. But how do security institutions define disinformation and fake news in foreign and security policies, and how do their securitization strategies change over years? Using computational methods, this article explores 238,452 tweets from official NATO and affiliated accounts, as well as more than 2,000 NATO texts, news statements, and publications since January 2014, presenting an unsupervised structural topic model (stm) analysis to investigate the main thematic and discursive contexts of these texts. The study finds that NATO’s threat discourse and securitization strategies are heavily influenced by the US’ political lexicon, and that the organization’s word choice changes based on their likelihood of mobilizing alliance resources and cohesion. In addition, the study suggests that the recent disinformation agenda is, in fact, a continuity of NATO’s long-standing Russia-focused securitization strategy and their attempt to mobilize the Baltic states and Poland in support of NATO’s mission.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Elections, Disinformation, and Securitization
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and United States of America

1376. Ontological Security and Iran’s Missile Program

Author:: Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article attempts to answer the question of why Iran is reluctant to discuss its missile program. Unlike other studies that focus on the importance of Iran’s missile program in providing deterrence for the country and establishing a balance of military power in the region, or that view the missile program as one of dozens of post-revolutionary contentious issues between Iran and the United States, this article looks into Iran’s ontological security. The paper primarily argues that the missile program has become a source of pride for Iranians, inextricably linked to their identity. As a result, the Iranian authorities face two challenges when it comes to sitting at the negotiation table with their Western counterparts: deep mistrust of the West, and the ensuing sense of shame over any deal on the missile issue. Thus, Iranian officials opted to preserve the identity components of the program, return to normal and daily routines of life, insist on the missile program’s continuation despite sanctions and threats, and emphasize the dignity and honor of having a missile program. The article empirically demonstrates how states can overcome feelings of shame and mistrust. It also theoretically proves that when physical security conflicts with ontological security, governments prefer the former over the latter, based on the history of Iran’s nuclear negotiations. They appeal to create new narratives to justify changing their previous policies.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Negotiation, and Identity
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

1377. U.S. Democracy Aid and the Conditional Effects of Donor Interests, Media Attention and Democratic Change, 1975-2010

Author:: James M. Scott, Charles M. Rowling, and Timothy M. Jones
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Democracy promotion emerged as a US foreign policy priority during the late 20th century, especially after the Cold War. Scarce resources, however, require policymakers to make difficult choices about which countries should receive democracy aid and which ones should not. Previous studies indicate that a variety of factors shape democracy aid allocations, including donor strategic interests and democratic openings within potential recipient states. Research has also shown that media coverage plays a significant role in these decisions. We model the conditional effects of media attention and regime shifts on US democracy aid decisions, controlling for other recipient and donor variables. We argue that these factors are contingent on the salience, in terms of broad interest profiles, of a particular country for policymakers. The donor’s overall level of interest in a potential recipient systematically shapes the effects of media attention on democracy assistance. Broadly speaking, low-interest conditions elevate the agenda-setting impact of media attention and regime conditions/shifts while high-interest conditions reduce that effect. To assess these contingent relationships, we examine US democracy aid from 1975-2010. Our results support our argument and present a more nuanced explanation of the relationship between the media’s agenda-setting role, recipient characteristics and donor interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democracy, Media, and Donors
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1378. Assessing the EU’s military assistance to Ukraine

Author:: Steven Blockmans and Leonardo De Agostini
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Eight months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US has spent almost three times as much in ‘lethal aid’ to the Ukrainian armed forces than the EU institutions and Member States combined. Beyond the headline figures presented in well-known indices, data are hard to come by in a disaggregated manner. This lack of transparency is problematic both from a public accountability perspective as well as from efforts to ensure greater complementarity in Member States’ support for the needs identified by Ukraine. Therefore, integrating publicly available sources into a more refined dataset of the weapons systems and military-related support promised by Member States to Ukraine is of utmost importance. This CEPS Policy Brief aims to complement the existing narrative regarding the lagging military aid concretely delivered by the EU Member States in comparison to the aid sent by the US and the UK, and to offer possible solutions on where – and how – the EU can plug the shortfalls.
Topic:: European Union, Weapons, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

1379. The Biden Administration’s National Security Strategy

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Ross Harrison, Jerry Feierstein, and Marwa Maziad
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Biden Administration's National Security Strategy has drawn some criticism for its relatively late release, but what of its actual substance? Today, Alistair Taylor talks with four experts, each with unique insights into the context and strategy of this document with regards to the Middle East, North Africa, and American foreign policy at large. Our first guest is Ross Harrison, a Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Middle East Institute, and a Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh. Our second guest is Jerry Feierstein, Distinguished Senior Fellow on U.S. Diplomacy and Director of MEI’s Arabian Peninsula Affairs Program. We are then joined by Dr. Marwa Maziad, a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI's Defense and Security Program and a Visiting Assistant Professor of Israel Studies at the Gildenhorn Institute at the University of Maryland. Our final guest is Melissa Horvath, a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI’s Defense and Security Program and the lead Foreign Military Sales Instructor and Curriculum Developer at ASRC Federal.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1380. Somalia (Horn of Africa, part 2 of 2)

Author:: Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Guled Ahmed joins the program to discuss the political climate in Somalia, its recent elections, security conditions, and the role of external actors including the African Union, Gulf states, Turkey, and the U.S.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Elections, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, Somalia, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and Horn of Africa

1381. Area Studies, the Cold War, and the History of the US Academic Library Collections

Author:: Michael Albin, Ryan Zohair, Joan Weeks, and William Kopycki
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: This panel brings together Middle East Studies librarians to discuss how Cold War-era programs like the Food for Peace Act, whose revenues supported the Library of Congress' foreign offices in the Middle East, functioned and contributed to foreign language acquisitions in the U.S., and how they continue to shape how knowledge is produced on the region within American academia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Academia, Area Studies, and Libraries
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1382. The US strike on al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Mick Mulroy, Javid Ahmad, and Douglas London
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On today’s episode, host Alistair Taylor explores the ramifications of the CIA drone strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan on July 31. Joining the program are three MEI experts - Mick Mulroy, Javid Ahmad, and Douglas London - who bring with them a variety of perspectives, from intelligence to diplomacy.
Topic:: Al Qaeda, Drones, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, North America, and United States of America

1383. Taliban rule of Afghanistan at six months

Author:: Marvin G. Weinbaum and Sayed Madadi
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Marvin Weinbaum and Sayed Madadi discuss Afghanistan’s worsening economic and humanitarian crises six months after the Taliban reclaimed control of the country.
Topic:: Security, Taliban, Humanitarian Crisis, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

1384. Israel & Palestine: Hot topics in Congress

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Khaled Elgindy, and Lara Friedman
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Host Alistair Taylor speaks with Khaled Elgindy and Lara Friedman about the release of their recently completed 2022 congressional briefing series on Israel and Palestine: Hot topics in Congress. The eight-part webinar series features an array of Palestinian and Israeli voices, weighing in on some of the most pressing and timely Israel/Palestine-related topics in Congress. Recordings of all eight sessions of the congressional briefing series can be found on the MEI and FMEP websites at www.mei.edu and www.fmep.org.
Topic:: Education, Government, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

1385. US-Gulf Relations at the Crossroads

Author:: Gerald Feierstein, Bilal Y. Saab, and Karen E. Young
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Amb. Gerald Feierstein, Bilal Saab, and Karen Young join guest host Brian Katulis to discuss their recent MEI policy paper, US-Gulf Relations at the Crossroads: Time for a Recalibration, and why they believe now is not the time to disengage from the region.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

1386. Americans’ Support for Key LGBTQ Rights Continues to Tick Upward

Author:: Robert Jones, Natalie Jackson, Diana Orces, Ian Huff, and Maddie Snodgrass
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: For several years, PRRI has surveyed Americans’ support and opposition to three main LGBTQ rights policies: Laws that would protect gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people against discrimination in jobs, public accommodations, and housing (since 2015) Allowing a small business owner in your state to refuse to provide products or services to gay or lesbian people if doing so would violate their religious beliefs (since 2015) Allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally (since 2014) All three issues have been addressed in continued policy action and court decisions at the federal and state levels during this time period. There is currently no national law guaranteeing nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ people across most categories, but the 2019 Bostock v. Clayton County, Georgia U.S. Supreme Court ruling found that LGBTQ discrimination in employment is considered “sex discrimination” as defined by the Civil Rights Act of 1964.[1] However, that ruling applies only to employment, and beyond that, 29 states currently do not have complete or any nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ Americans.[2] The U.S. Congress is currently considering the Equality Act, which would bar discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity at the federal level.[3] The recent history of LGBTQ rights and the rights of private business owners to deny services that may violate their religious beliefs has been complex, notably involving a highly publicized battle between a baker and a gay couple for whom the baker refused to make a wedding cake. The years long battle culminated in the 2018 U.S. Supreme Court decision in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, which sided with the baker on narrowly defined terms.[4] The issue remains unsettled, and the Supreme Court will hear another case on the issue in 2022.[5] Same-sex marriage was legalized at the federal level by the Obergefell v. Hodges U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2015.[6] There are fears that the court, which is now majority conservative, might overturn the decision if an opportunity arises. If the ruling is overturned, same-sex marriage might become illegal in states that had not passed marriage equality legislation prior to 2015.[7]
Topic:: LGBT+, Marriage, Identity, and Equality
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1387. American Bubbles: Politics, Race, and Religion in Americans’ Core Friendship Networks

Author:: Robert Jones, Natalie Jackson, Diana Orces, Ian Huff, and Maddie Snodgrass
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: To better understand the composition of Americans’ core friendship networks, PRRI designed a study to assess the scope and diversity of Americans’ social relationships. The method of measuring Americans’ core social networks was modeled after the General Social Survey and follows up on a study PRRI conducted in 2013. Respondents were asked to name people with whom they “discussed important matters” in the previous six months, regardless of the nature of the relationship or the frequency of interaction. This approach is designed to measure the ways in which individuals’ choices and attitudes are influenced by their family and close friends.[1]
Topic:: Politics, Race, Religion, Social Cohesion, Social Identities, and Social Exclusion
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1388. The Role and Importance of Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity in Heterosexual and LGBTQ Americans’ Lives

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: n 2021, PRRI asked a series of questions related to how important personal identities are to Americans, one of which was about sexual orientation and gender identity: “When you think about your personal identity, how important is sexual orientation or gender identity in your life?” Respondents could say it is the most important thing, very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important. One-third of Americans (33%) said that their sexual orientation or gender identity is the most important thing or a very important thing in their lives. Just over four in ten LGBTQ Americans (41%) say their sexual orientation is the most important or a very important part of their identity, compared to one-third (32%) of heterosexual Americans. LGBTQ Americans comprise nine percent of the survey respondents, and 91% are cisgender (not transgender) and heterosexual.[1] It is not surprising that LGBTQ Americans say their sexual orientation or gender identity is the most important or a very important identity given the marginalization of the group and the celebration of Pride Month in June to commemorate the fight for LGBTQ rights and recognition. The concept of a strong cisgender heterosexual identity, however, might be somewhat surprising. This report examines both LGBTQ and cisgender heterosexual Americans who say their sexual orientation is a very important identity and how the strength of their sexual orientation identity impacts their views.[2] The differences demonstrate quite clearly that heterosexual Americans who say their sexual orientation is a very important identity exhibit cultural and social threat attitudes, whereas LGBTQ Americans with a strong attachment to their sexual orientation are generally more progressive.
Topic:: Religion, LGBT+, Identity, Gender, and Sexual Orientation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1389. Political and Religious Activation and Polarization in the Wake of the Roe v. Wade Overturn

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In a survey conducted June 24-26, 2022, after the Dobbs decision was announced, 65% of Americans say abortion should be legal in most or all cases, including 33% who say it should be legal in all cases and 32% who say it should be legal in most cases. One-third of Americans (33%) say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases, including 25% who say it should be illegal in most cases and 8% who say it should be illegal in all cases. PRRI has tracked opinion on this question since 2010, when 55% of Americans said abortion should be legal in most or all cases and 42% said it should be illegal in most or all cases. Much of the change has been in the “all cases” responses: support for legal abortion in all cases has slowly ticked up, from a low of 18% in 2010 and 2011 to the current 33%. Most recently, in March 2022, 28% said abortion should be legal in all cases. Conversely, the proportion of Americans who say abortion should be illegal in all cases has slowly declined, from 15% in 2010, and a high of 19% in 2014, to its current level of 8% (unchanged from 9% in March 2022). Republicans are least likely to say abortion should be legal in most or all cases (35%), but vast majorities of independents (69%) and Democrats (88%) say it should remain legal. Republicans have stayed consistent since 2010 (when 35% said it should be legal in most or all cases), and independents have moved only slightly (from 64% in 2010). Democrats have become considerably more supportive of abortion legality, however, with 71% saying it should be legal in most or all cases in 2010, compared with nearly nine in ten in mid-2022.
Topic:: Politics, Religion, Reproductive Rights, Abortion, Activism, and Gender
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1390. Creating More Inclusive Public Spaces: Structural Racism, Confederate Memorials, and Building for the Future

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Across the United States over the past decade, there have been heated discussions about Confederate statues and memorials in public spaces. Some cities have removed statues or renamed public spaces memorializing the Confederacy and Confederate leaders, while others remain embroiled in debate. This survey, conducted jointly by PRRI and E Pluribus Unum, examines the role of race and racism in how Americans view Confederate monuments, as well as American attitudes toward creating making public spaces more inclusive.
Topic:: Space, Memory, Racism, and Public Investment
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1391. Policy Papers by Women of Color: Young Ambassadors Journal of Global Affairs

Author:: Shanel Wilson, Kyla Denwood, Mari Faines, Alonna Williams, and Mia Veal
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: The WCAPS Young Ambassadors Board presents to you the premiere version of the Young Ambassadors Journal of Global Affairs. The culmination of these five policy recommendations written by women of color covers a variety of issue areas that are relevant and researched and most importantly the passion areas for our members. These women are emerging experts and professionals in their fields of international development, national security, peace, and technology. Their contributions are representative of the areas of the world they want to improve and fortify the skills to do just that.
Topic:: Education, Foreign Exchange, Law Enforcement, Food Security, Internet, Police, Militarization, and Suburbanization
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, Nicaragua, North America, and United States of America

1392. The Killing of Al-Zawahiri and the Future of Al-Qaeda

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In the afternoon of 1 August, Joe Biden gave a speech from the White House confirming the killing of Al-Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in Afghanistan. According to senior sources from the administration, Zawahiri was killed by “a precise tailored airstrike” conducted at around 06:30 am local time in the Sherpur neighbourhood of Kabul.[1] The strike was carried out via two Hellfire missiles (allegedly, two R9X missiles) fired from a drone.[2] The area in which the attack was carried out is particularly significant: the Sherpur neighbourhood is located in a deeply protected area of the capital, in which many Taliban leaders now live. Al-Zawahiri was reportedly killed in the house owned by a top aide to senior Taliban leader, Sirajuddin Haqqani.[3]
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Al Qaeda, and Ayman al-Zawahiri
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

1393. The US–Italy Economic Relations in a Divided World

Author:: Adriana Castagnoli
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In 2021, bilateral trade returned to the sustained pace it had prior to the Covid pandemic. Direct investment also grew – crucially, not just Italian investment in the United States but the other way round too. While Italy’s economic ties with Russia and China remain potential hotspots, Rome has never questioned its Atlantic orientation. Nevertheless, possible austerity policies following sanctions against Russia could spread social discontent that populist parties can exploit for consensus purposes in the 2023 general election, rekindling anti-Americanism rooted in different segments of Italian society.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Policy, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Italy, and United States of America

1394. Russia–Ukraine Talks and the Indispensable Role of the US and Europe

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Vladimir Putin’s imperialist war of conquest in Ukraine is about to enter its fifth week. Russia’s failure to shock and awe Ukraine’s government and armed forces into submission through a poorly executed Blitzkrieg has morphed into a slow and ever more brutal three-front campaign. While Russian forces struggle to make strides in the north and east, they have been more successful in the south, where they are about to deprive Ukraine from access to the Sea of Azov.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

1395. Constraints for Engagement with China: Dutch Ports and the BRI

Author:: Vera Kranenburg and Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Rising US–China rivalry is shaping and constraining the relations between European states and China. The Netherlands is no exception and recent tensions with China have carried over to impact its trade and cooperative engagements with Beijing. The Netherlands never formally signed onto the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)[1] – the Chinese policy framework for international transport, communication and energy development. Nevertheless, the BRI is very relevant to the Netherlands, in particular for the Dutch port of Rotterdam and its ambition to preserve its role as a major logistical hub for trade with Europe.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, Engagement, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Netherlands, and United States of America

1396. The differences between Western and non-Western US allies in the Ukraine war

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: For mid-level regional powers, avoiding non-essential friction with a major power like Russia is seen as an imperative, particularly in a situation where consistent support from their US patron is by no means a given.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

1397. Biden, Israel, and China: Making a Difficult Threesome Work

Author:: Steven R. David
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is wrong to expect Israel, a middle-level economy, to decouple from China when far wealthier countries (including the United States) show no signs of following suit. Israeli companies should not be subject to restrictions not placed on companies elsewhere, including the United States itself.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1398. Connecting Strategic Dots: Biden’s Visit to the Middle East

Author:: Eytan Gilboa
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: During Biden’s upcoming visit, he plans to form a regional defense alliance at a regional conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The coalition will include the United States, Israel, and a host of Arab countries, including Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq. In this sense, Biden continues Trump’s policy of the Abraham Accords.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Hegemony, Leadership, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, North America, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

1399. The US Defense Establishment’s Role in Shaping American Regional Strategy

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel offers the US military and, even more so, the intelligence community critical support. For example, the US Army has gained through the acquisition of the Iron Dome missile defense system, tank technology such as reactive armor, solutions to the challenge of terrorist improvised explosive devices, mine-clearing devices, and much more. In turn, the US defense establishment –specifically CENTCOM, now that Israel is in its area of responsibility – increasingly reflects Israeli perspectives in Washington policy debates. This has recently been the case on Iran.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1400. Understanding US Foreign Policy: A Theoretical Analysis

Author:: Ahmet Ates
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: From the point of view of International Relations theory, understanding “America and the world” is mostly about the world: the U.S. is an important actor, but it acts mostly in response to international trends. However, from the point of view of theories of American politics and domestic politics theories of foreign policy, “America and the world” is mostly about America: American actions are primarily the result of domestic political institutions and the political processes they help to structure. In that manner, this articles surveys three selected theories of International relations namely, realism, liberalism and constructivism and three selected theories of American politics namely, mass politics, psychological explanations, and institutional approaches to provide a thorough analysis of US foreign policy studies. Further, it argues that international relations theories usually explain why US foreign policy acts in a particular way while American politics theories explain why US foreign policy specifically acts that way and why it does not act in an alternative way. Hence, this article argues that while international relations theories are useful to explain general trends in US foreign policy, American politics theories are better to capture the complexity of US foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS