Political Geography: United States of America / Publication Year: within 3 Years

1. Empire Salon | William Smith | Oct 14 2020

Author:: William Smith
Publication Date:: 12-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: William Smith, a distinguished former student of Committee Board member Claes Ryn, has written an insightful book on the realistic and restrained foreign policy tradition of the United States. Smith highlights the great Harvard scholar, Irving Babbitt, with his clear understanding of the crooked timber of man -- especially when acting collectively -- which reduces moral inhibitions against violence. James Madison explained in Federalist 55, “Had every Athenian citizen been a Socrates; every Athenian assembly would still have been a mob.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Imperialism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States

Author:: Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
Topic:: NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

3. Assad’s Fall Is an Opportunity for a U.S. Win Over China

Author:: Grant Rumley
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Beijing consistently supported the regime’s brutal repressive measures, so cozying up to the rebel-led transition government may be more difficult than it expects. In the months since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, China has seized on the conflict to criticize not only Israel but by extension the U.S. and its position in the region. For years, Chinese diplomats had been careful to toe a centrist line in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calibrating their language to avoid offending either side too greatly. Yet as the conflict has dragged on the past year, and as the region’s criticisms of the U.S. have risen, Beijing sensed an opportunity to diminish the U.S. standing while boosting its own. Chinese officials have regularly omitted mention of Hamas’s atrocities while blasting Israel and the U.S. for its support. Now, however, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has presented the U.S. with a similar opportunity...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, Bashar al-Assad, 2023 Gaza War, and Transitional Government
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

4. In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State

Author:: Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns. Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria would be a devastating setback and damage American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure. Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. And despite political nominees’ reassurances that the United States is unlikely to abandon its partners there, Trump himself has been more ambivalent...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islamic State, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

5. Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for Israel, Hamas, and U.S. Policy

Author:: Dennis Ross, Matthew Levitt, and Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Former Israeli and U.S. officials discuss the deal’s timing, provisions, and near-term prospects, outlining the Trump administration’s practical options for advancing peace in Gaza and beyond.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

6. Barbara A. Leaf on US Leadership and Engagement in the Middle East

Author:: Brian Katulis and Barbara A. Leaf
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Middle East Focus Presents: ’Taking the Edge Off the Middle East’ with Brian Katulis. A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today - hosted by MEI’s Senior Fellow Brian Katulis. Barbara A. Leaf is a seasoned diplomat and expert on the Middle East, having served as the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and held key positions in US embassies across the region. In this episode, Barbara joins Brian to discuss the array of “black swan” events currently unfolding in the Middle East, and how the second Trump administration may respond to these challenges. They discuss the broader implications of these developments for US foreign policy, national security, and regional stability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Leadership, Engagement, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

7. Costly Incrementalism: U.S. PKK Policy and Relations with Türkiye

Author:: Richard Outzen
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: U.S. policy towards the PKK, a designated Foreign Terror Organization, has varied significantly over four decades, reflecting a clear periodization based on pragmatic policy interests and the interplay of U.S. actions and Turkish responses. Washington has over time supported Turkish counter-PKK actions without direct involvement; actively supported Turkish counter-PKK efforts; tolerated or tacitly supported PKK activities; and directly instrumentalized and supported the PKK in Syria and regionally. Washington’s evolving stance toward the PKK coincided with the rise of Al Qaeda (AQ) and its offshoot, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as the focus of U.S. Middle East policy. The evolution reflected an incremental approach that subordinated U.S.-Turkish relations and other regional problems to the campaign against AQ/IS. Bilateral cooperation suffered as incrementalism, low trust, and transactionalism came to characterize the relationship. This paper examines the history, current dynamics, and possible future trajectory of U.S. PKK policy as a problem in U.S. Turkish bilateral relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

8. The Alliance in the Storm: Geopolitical Representation of the United States in the Turkish Parliament during Détente

Author:: Ayşe Ömür Atmaca
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article analyzes how the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political discourse changed during the 1960s and 1970s in the context of deep crises between the two countries, such as the Cyprus question, the opium issue, and the US arms embargo on Türkiye. Within the framework of critical geopolitical theory, it uses the concept of “geopolitical representation.” It examines the changes in the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political life through practical geopolitics. To this end, it evaluates the debates, speeches, and correspondence made by the representatives of the ruling and opposition parties and members of the government in the Turkish Grand National Assembly between 1964 and 1979, within the context of the crises in Turkish-American relations, particularly within the foreign policy framework. It is argued that while the alliance between Türkiye and the United States and Türkiye’s membership in NATO were seen as important symbols of Türkiye’s sovereignty and enjoyed unwavering support in the 1950s, tensions with the US, Türkiye’s “strategic partner,” in the 1960s and 1970s led to notable shifts in the Turkish parliament’s narrative. As a pioneer of anti-NATO and anti-US rhetoric, the Workers’ Party of Türkiye (TİP) played a prominent role in shaping parliamentary discussions.
Topic:: History, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Arms Embargo, and Detente
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, Cyprus, and United States of America

9. Challenging Friends: Türkiye-U.S. Relations

Author:: Lenore G. Martin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article analyzes the underlying wellsprings for the major strains that disrupt the U.S. - Türkiye relationship. These strains arise from the U.S. support of the PYD/YPG/YPJ in Northern Syria as boots on the ground against ISIL; Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system; Türkiye’s energy imports from Russia and Iran; the U.S. refusal to extradite Fetullah Gülen; and Washington’s complaints about the AKP government’s anti-democratic tendencies. This article analyzes why and how some of these issues have evoked strong ire and distrust on both sides and others much less so by employing a paradigm based on five integrated variables: Türkiye’s military and economic capabilities; the availability of its natural resources, particularly energy; as well as threats to the legitimacy of the AKP regime and to the society’s ethnic and religious cohesion. Utilizing the paradigm, the article proposes measures that will increase the opportunities to build a firmer partnership between the U.S. and Türkiye.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, YPG, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

10. A Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Turkish Public Opinion towards the United States

Author:: Efe Tokdemir, Melike Metintaş, and Seçkin Köstem
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Türkiye - United States relations have a multifaceted character and have spanned a long period, witnessing ups and downs throughout their historical trajectory. Türkiye’s relations with and foreign policy towards the US have been closely monitored by the public, and diverse perspectives towards the US have emerged within Turkish public opinion over time. This paper investigates the various factors that affect Turkish public opinion towards the US. Previous studies have generally examined public opinion through the demand side, exploring what features of the public predict their behavior towards other countries. In this research, we examine what exactly it is about the US that the public likes or dislikes. The research question of this article is: What are the determinants of the variation in individuals’ foreign policy attitudes towards the US in Türkiye? By answering this question through survey data conducted in 2021, we aim to present the economic, security-related, and political reasons behind the Turkish public’s positive and negative attitudes toward the US. The findings demonstrate that individuals are influenced by various dimensions pertaining to the US and its relations with Türkiye. The respondents’ demographic characteristics and political and foreign policy attitudes have resulted in disparate opinions regarding these multiple dimensions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

11. Where is the Anchor? Explaining the Endurance of the American-Turkish Partnership, 1927-2024

Author:: Onur Erpul and Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Once considered a model partnership, the American-Turkish relationship now elicits ambivalence among scholars and policymakers, calling into question the fundamental interests and assumptions that once undergirded the relationship. Critics attribute the negative trends in the relationship to geostrategic and value-based incompatibilities, but relatively few have examined both factors longitudinally across the entire relationship. This paper does not aim to provide a grand theory of American-Turkish relations. Instead, its goal is to develop a framework illustrating the vital role that strategic, ideational, and domestic political factors have played in shaping macro-level outcomes in the partnership’s cohesion at various junctures. Overall, our paper identifies the positive role of foreign policy bureaucratic elites on both sides acting as an “invisible hand” providing an anchor for the relationship even in the absence of other commonalities. Yet, we also observe the weakening of this hand in recent times as both countries become domestically transformed.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and Elites
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

12. The Deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish Foreign Policy: Why Societal Ties Are an Anchor in Bilateral Relations

Author:: Andrew O'Donohue
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This paper challenges two prevailing narratives about U.S.-Turkey relations: first, that international and individual-level factors are responsible for volatility in the relationship and second, that bilateral relations are uniformly bleak. In contrast to these perspectives, this paper proposes a domestic and institutional explanation for the rising volatility of U.S.-Turkey relations and conceptualizes societal ties as an anchor in the bilateral relationship. This paper advances two inter-related arguments. First, I argue that a key driver of volatility in U.S.-Turkey relations since 2016 is the deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish foreign policymaking. In the United States, the root cause of deinstitutionalization is intensifying polarization over foreign policy, fueled by the rise of populism. In Turkey, by contrast, foreign policy has deinstitutionalized through personalization: the steady concentration of decision-making power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Second, against this backdrop of deinstitutionalization, I show that societal ties between the United States and Turkey provide a uniquely stable and enduring area of bilateral cooperation. I provide evidence for this argument in two key domains: 1) civil society and media and 2) higher education. These societal linkages, I argue, are often resilient precisely because they are disconnected from domestic politics and foreign policy. These societal ties should thus be understood not as agents that can reshape bilateral relations but as anchors that prevent the two nations from drifting apart.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, Media, Higher Education, Bureaucracy, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

13. Turkey and the US in the Middle East: A Case for Alliance Change

Author:: Meliha Benli Altunisik
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Turkey-US relations in the Middle East have evolved significantly in recent years. Initially based on shared threat perceptions and strategic outlooks during the Cold War, the alignment became characterized by divergences on some issues after the Gulf War in 1991. Their relationship in the Middle East has even become hostile in recent years. Turkey’s increased regional aspirations and evolving threat perceptions in the Middle East, framed within an ontological security narrative, have strained bilateral ties. This shift is compounded by divergent worldviews influenced by domestic political changes in both countries. Despite these challenges, the alliance persists within NATO, albeit with complexities arising from the interplay of external pressures and internal dynamics. This article explores these dynamics using a Neoclassical Realist framework to explain how Ankara’s evolving threat perceptions and ontological security concerns have reshaped Turkey-US relations in the Middle East amid changing global and regional contexts.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Neoclassical Realism, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

14. Translating Trump’s Disruptive Diplomacy into a New Reality in Gaza

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the future of Gaza – which include the eviction of its population, American governance, the creation of a “Middle Eastern Riviera,” and an ultimatum demanding the release of all hostages – highlights two key issues on which Trump’s positions appear self-contradictory. The call for the release of all hostages (and hence perhaps an end to the war) seems at odds with the administration’s firmly held view that Hamas must no longer be the ruling power in Gaza. At the same time, the call for Palestinians to leave Gaza contradicts the traditional commitment to America’s Arab friends (and clients). The stability of the regimes in Egypt and Jordan, if pushed to take the Gazans and punished for their refusal, could be endangered – despite King Abdullah’s efforts to mollify Trump during his visit to Washington. The future of their peace treaties with Israel would also be threatened. The Saudis too have responded abruptly, reiterating their support for Palestinian demands. Consequently, the region has been thrust into a state of crisis.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, 2023 Gaza War, and Hostages
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

15. Christian Nationalism Across All 50 States: Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In 2024, PRRI released a groundbreaking national survey that provided for the first time the ability to estimate support for Christian nationalism in all 50 states. Building on that work throughout 2024, PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to continue monitoring the spread of support for Christian nationalism and the factors driving such views.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Survey, Partisanship, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16. LGBTQ Rights Across All 50 States: Key Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In 2024, PRRI interviewed over 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to provide a detailed analysis of the demographic, political, and religious characteristics of LGBTQ Americans. The report also examines public attitudes on LGBTQ rights across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, focusing on support for nondiscrimination protections, opposition to religiously based service refusals, and support for same-sex marriage. Additionally, new survey questions explore views on transgender-related policies, including restrictions on gender-affirming care for minors and ID laws requiring birth-assigned sex.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Domestic Politics, LGBT+, and Survey
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

17. Factsheet: Elon Musk

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Elon Musk is a billionaire entrepreneur and the CEO or top executive of multiple high-profile companies, including X (formerly Twitter), Tesla and SpaceX. He has a documented history of amplifying anti-Muslim tropes, supporting individuals and organizations that promote Islamophobia, and making statements that minimize or dismiss concerns about anti-Muslim racism. His actions and influence have contributed to the normalization of Islamophobic rhetoric in public discourse. In 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Musk to lead the newly-created Department of Government Efficiency.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Billionaires, and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

18. Factsheet: Tom Trento

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Tom Trento is an American conservative activist who has a history of making anti-Muslim statements, including promoting a narrative that constructs Islam as a major threat to America. He is the founder and executive director of The United West, described by the Southern Poverty Law Center as an organization “stoking anti-Muslim hate for over a decade.”
Topic:: Conservatism, Islamophobia, Activism, Right-Wing Politics, and Tom Trento
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

19. Factsheet: Pete Hegseth

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Pete Hegseth is a former Fox News political commentator, author, and former Army National Guard officer who served in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He has tattoos that are associated with white nationalism and has a history of making Islamophobic statements. Hegseth has also been accused of sexual assault and has had several incidences of alleged sexist behavior. In 2025, Hegseth was confirmed as the next Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Military, Pete Hegseth, and White Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

20. Factsheet: Randy Fine

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Randy Fine is an American Republican politician and currently serves as a Senator for the Florida state government. Before joining politics, he served as a gambling industry executive. Fine has been described as an “unhinged bigot,” “controversial,” “divisive,” and “abrasive.” He has a history of making anti-Muslim, anti-Palestinian, and racist comments, and has threatened two Muslim women members of Congress. In 2024, Fine announced he would be running for the US Congress and was endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Topic:: Politics, Islamophobia, Republican Party, and Randy Fine
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

21. The US TikTok Ban, the RedNote Moment and China

Author:: Aurelio Insisa
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 23 April 2024, the US Senate passed a bill forcing the Chinese company ByteDance to choose between divesting from its prized social platform TikTok, one of the dominant apps among Americans aged 18-29,[1] or accepting its ban on US soil. Following ByteDance’s refusal to divest, the US Supreme Court upheld the ban on 17 January 2025. The ban on TikTok rested on national security grounds. TikTok is technically a limited liability corporation registered in Delaware and with headquarters in Singapore and Los Angeles. Yet, its parent company ByteDance, while incorporated in the Cayman Islands, is based in Beijing and subject to a domestic legal framework legally requiring it to “provide assistance” to the Chinese government, including, crucially, giving up the data of TikTok users.[2] Further highlighting the limited autonomy of the company vis-à-vis Chinese authorities, “cells” of the Chinese Communist Party have been embedded within the structures of the company since 2017.[3] In short, ByteDance cannot guarantee that the personal data of its users could be kept at arm’s length from Beijing. While the Senate’s bill enjoyed bipartisan support, then President-elect Donald J. Trump publicly stated that he would not enforce the ban. Throughout the 2024 electoral campaign, Trump had announced – in contrast with most of the Republican Party members of Congress – his opposition to the bill, acknowledging how the platform had been a relevant tool for re-election.[4] On 19 January, Trump announced that he would consider imposing a 90-day delay of the ban and search for a joint-venture between ByteDance and a US company.[5] Two days later, he suggested the possibility that either Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla, owner of X, and Administrator of the Department of Government Efficiency in the new administration), or Larry Ellison (chairman of Oracle) would buy the social media platform.[6]
Topic:: Social Media, Digital Policy, and TikTok
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

22. Trump First, America Second

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In his inaugural address to a nation half-enthusiastic and half-stunned still by the most extraordinary political comeback in US history, Donald Trump portrayed himself as the saviour of the nation, chosen by God Himself to finally turn America First from slogan to reality and truly ‘make America great again’.[1] The mixture of politics, ideology and megalomaniac eschatology is especially interesting because Trump has tied the fate of the nation to his personal fortunes like no other president before him. As he puts it, the realisation of America First is inextricably linked to his personal power.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ideology, Far Right, Donald Trump, and Nativism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

23. A Tough Opponent for Trump: Inflation

Author:: Matteo Bursi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: According to several pre-election polls, the economy was perceived by many US voters as the key topic in deciding whether to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2024 presidential elections.[1] During Joe Biden’s administration, the US GDP grew steadily and unemployment reached very low levels. Nevertheless, for the first time since 2004, the Democratic Party lost the presidency, the popular vote, the House of Representatives and the Senate. This seemingly paradoxical situation, according to some commentators, finds an explanation in the issue of inflation.[2] From this perspective, a significant number of Americans reportedly voted for Donald Trump due to the sharp price increases experienced during the past four years, blaming the outgoing Democratic administration for failing to sufficiently protect the purchasing power of US citizens and businesses. During and after the election campaign, the tycoon has claimed that he can curb inflation, emphasising his plan to intensify the exploitation of domestic energy resources. This proposal – covered by one of the many executive orders signed by Trump upon taking office – could help contain price increases but is unlikely to be a definitive solution. Likewise, its effectiveness could be largely offset by inflationary pressures arising from other policies that the Republican politician has promised to implement.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Economic Policy, Inflation, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

24. Trump’s Call with Putin Raises Great Concerns, Few Hopes

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: US President Donald Trump’s phone call with Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin, especially when read in combination with Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s re-definition of US Europe policy, casts a long shadow. There are good reasons to be more concerned than hopeful about the peace deal that seems to be taking shape in the minds of the US Administration. At the same time, there are elements suggesting a less pessimistic assessment of the looming negotiations. Trump’s call with Putin has made a big splash but has not yet pierced Ukraine’s armour.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

25. Another Transatlanticism Is Possible: Europe’s Moment in Latin America amid Trump’s Return

Author:: Raffaele Piras
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited his hallmark “America First” agenda, with significant consequences for Latin America. During his inaugural address, Trump emphasised the need to regain US control of the Panama Canal, framing it as a cornerstone of national security amidst heightened competition with China.[1] This rhetoric marks the continuation of a policy approach that relies on coercion and transactional diplomacy to achieve US objectives. While Trump’s focus on Latin America will undoubtedly reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics, it also presents a strategic opportunity for the European Union to strengthen its role as a stabilising force and reliable partner.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

26. Giorgia Meloni’s Italy between Trump and Europe: Fateful Choices Ahead

Author:: Maria Luisa Fantappiè, Leo Goretti, and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The priority should be “preventing divisions within the West and the transatlantic alliance”, while “rooting for” this or that side would not be helpful: it is thus that Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni commented on the spat in the Oval Office between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump,[1] and by extension, between Washington and Europe. In the aftermath of the clash, while most European leaders openly supported Zelensky, Meloni’s reticence was notable. The choice was tough. Siding with Zelensky would jeopardise Meloni’s aspiration to become the go-to EU leader for Washington. And yet, siding with Trump would lay bare a lack of commitment to Europe and especially the defence of Ukraine, for which Meloni had previously shown constant support. At the ensuing London Summit on Ukraine, Meloni couldn’t hide her discomfort.[2] The resolve of European leaders – spearheaded by the French president Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer – in advocating for a strategic Europe seemed to shelve Meloni’s carefully crafted plan to leverage her bilateral ties with the Trump administration to bolster her role in Europe – even at the cost of fragmenting its unity. Meanwhile, at home, her junior coalition partner Matteo Salvini openly sided with Trump, in an attempt to present himself as an alternative to Meloni and to win consensus among that sizable chunk of the Italian public opinion who wants to see an end to the war in Ukraine.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, Russia-Ukraine War, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:: Europe, Italy, and United States of America

27. Trump’s Exit from the Paris Agreement: An Opportunity for the EU to Back South Africa’s Climate Leadership

Author:: Bongiwe Ngcobo-Mphahlele and Darlington Tshuma
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In his address to the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos in January 2025,[1] South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa – who currently chairs the G20, the first African leader to do so – outlined a bold and assertive agenda centred on global cooperation, inclusive growth and sustainable development. His address included a renewed call for transparency in the allocation of climate resources and the reform of the global financial architecture that has long been criticised as too rigid to support long-term sustainable development in the Global South.[2]
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Europe, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

28. NATO-Europe-US Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific: Challenging Times Ahead

Author:: Gabriele Abbondanza
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the Indo-Pacific gradually becomes the world’s geopolitical and geoeconomic epicentre, states and regional organisations are progressively pivoting to it. Due to a combination of drivers – chiefly US pressure, economic opportunities, strategic interests and politico-normative priorities – European and Indo-Pacific actors have increased cooperation with Washington and NATO in the region. However, the second Trump administration looks considerably less aligned with the conventional pillars of US foreign policy. In light of the unfolding fracture between the US and its European allies over Ukraine, what lies ahead for NATO-Europe-US cooperation in the Indo-Pacific?
Topic:: NATO, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

29. A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance

Author:: Julia Bello-Schunemann
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Foreign aid has never been the solution to Nigeria’s multiple development challenges. However, the halt to US development assistance1 and the de facto shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will cause additional hardship for Nigeria’s most vulnerable. Modelling based on the International Futures model (IFs)2 , a forecasting platform housed at the University of Denver, suggests that the decision could push approximately 700 000 additional Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2030. The health sector is disproportionately affected by the freeze as it depends excessively on US aid, primarily for the fight against HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases. Nigeria is one of 10 countries globally that are most reliant on US funding3 for HIV medicines. The US policy shift is a wake-up call for the Tinubu administration to rise to the task of mobilising domestic funds to provide essential services to the population.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, USAID, and Health Sector
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, Nigeria, and United States of America

30. Public Debt and the Income Share of the Top 1% in the US, 1960-2019

Author:: Aggela Papadopoulou
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: This study theorizes the relationship between sovereign debt and income inequality and shows that increases in public indebtedness are robustly associated with increases in the income share of the top one percent in the US since the 1960s. First, the paper outlines the mechanisms through which public debt is linked to the top one percent income share, via interest payments and capital gains from bond trading. Subsequently, it scrutinizes the evolution of public debt and the income share of the top one percent in the US, in parallel with the historical development of political and economic institutions. Building on the historical analysis, it demonstrates econometrically that interest payments and total returns on domestic and foreign public debt are positively associated with the income share of the top one percent in the US for the period 1960 to 2019.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Public Debt, and Top One Percent
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

31. Black Intergenerational Mobility, Libertarian Capitalism, and Authoritarian Government, 1877–1941: A Case Study

Author:: Patrick L. Mason
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: There are persistent multigenerational Black-white gaps in occupational attainment. These racial differences in intergenerational mobility are not caused by differences in family values and behavior (Mason, 2007). For three decades, I have gathered evidence on my family’s intergenerational transition from enslavement to present social and economic circumstances. Charles and Susan Rollins were 32 and 29 years-old, respectively, as enslavement ended in 1865. During Reconstruction, they accumulated wealth, established a successful dairy and other farming, helped found a church and religious organizations, helped found multiple civic organizations, served on boards affiliated with the local university and high school, were elected to County and State public office, had savings and bank accounts for the entire family, and were leaders among an extensive social network. Jim Crow in the South and anti-black racism in the north stymied upward mobility for the Rollins family for the three generations after Charles and Susan, despite the fact that their descendants obtained greater education than their ancestors, displayed a willingness to relocate 100s of miles away from their home, possessed a culture of achievement (hard work, future orientation, married couple families, etc.), were blessed with exceptional social capital, and, perhaps, the relative advantage of being mulattoes.
Topic:: History, Authoritarianism, Capital, Libertarianism, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

32. Fracking or No Fracking? How a Green Transition Can Work for Workers

Author:: Robert Pollin and Jeannette Wicks-Lim
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Throughout the 2024 U.S. Presidential campaign, the only climate-related issue to achieve prominence was the question of whether to ban fracking operations in the United States. Donald Trump is a long-time climate denier, and therefore had no qualms in supporting fracking and all other techniques for extracting fossil fuels from the ground. By contrast, Kamala Harris had supported a nationwide ban on fracking during her 2019 presidential campaign. This was due to the severe negative environmental and public health impacts of this natural gas extraction technique and because burning natural gas to produce energy generates CO2 emissions that cause climate change. But Harris opposed a fracking ban in 2024 on the assumption that the ban would impose major costs to the economy of Pennsylvania, which has the second-largest fracking operations among U.S. states, after Texas only. Such negative economic outcomes in Pennsylvania would indeed result if fracking were banned in the U.S. and no large-scale alternative economic activities were introduced into Pennsylvania’s economy. But banning fracking must be understood as one component of a much larger program to advance a viable climate stabilization program, in Pennsylvania, and everywhere else. We find that building a clean energy-dominant infrastructure in Pennsylvania—focused on investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources—will generate approximately 160,000 jobs in the state. Meanwhile, phasing down fracking and all other fossil fuel activities by 50 percent between 2026 – 35 will entail job losses in the range of 1,700 per year within the state. We argue that these 1,700 displaced fossil fuel workers should receive just transition policies that include pension, employment and income guarantees, in addition to, as needed, retraining and relocation support. We estimate that such a just transition program for these workers will cost in the range of $240 million per year. This amounts to about 0.02 percent of Pennsylvania’s current GDP. Thus, we show how, between 2026 – 2035, Pennsylvania could phase out 50 percent of all its fossil fuel production activities—including fracking operations—while also providing generous support for workers to transition out of their fossil fuel industry jobs and into activities that both raise public health and environmental standards in the state and contribute toward a viable global climate stabilization project.
Topic:: Climate Change, Elections, Green Transition, and Fracking
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

33. Employment in Child Care and Early Education in the U.S. 2000-2021

Author:: Aritra Basu and Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Accurate assessment of trends in the availability and affordability of childcare services in the U.S. hinges on accurate assessment of a paid labor force that is difficult to precisely measure, because it spans a wide range of informal and formal institutional arrangements. This paper calls attention to these measurement problems and traces significant changes in the composition of child care and early education employment from 2000 to 2021 based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS). It shows that employment in the Child Day Care Services industry has become an increasingly poor measure of the number of those employed in Child Care and Preschool/Kindergarten occupations, due to increased provision in both Private Household Services and Elementary and Secondary Education industries. Comparisons of worker characteristics and median annual earnings across occupations and industries highlight the effects of institutional context, including differences in the composition of demand for paid care services. Consideration of these issues points to the need for specific improvements in labor force survey design.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Survey, and Child Care
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34. KGB Operations against the USA and Canada in Soviet Ukraine, 1953-1991

Author:: Nebahat Akkoç
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Professor Zhuk’s “KGB Operations against the USA and Canada in Soviet Ukraine, 1953- 1991” focuses on the post-Stalin Cold War period, when Soviet Ukraine was gradually opened to American and Canadian visitors and combines counter-intelligence documents in the 1st (and 16th) fund of Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) archive with the Committee for State Security’s (KGB) official correspondence and reports to the political leadership of Soviet Ukraine.
Topic:: Cold War, History, Book Review, and KGB
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

35. The Tech Revolution and Irregular Warfare: Leveraging Commercial Innovation for Great Power Competition

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The U.S. government has not adequately leveraged the commercial sector to conduct irregular warfare against China, Russia, Iran, and other competitors because of significant risk aversion, slow and burdensome contracting and acquisitions processes, and a failure to adequately understand technological advances. There is an urgent need to rethink how the United States works with the commercial sector in such areas as battlefield awareness, placement and access, next-generation intelligence, unmanned and autonomous systems, influence operations, and precision effects.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, Competition, and Irregular Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, and United States of America

36. Fueling the Future: Recommendations for Strengthening U.S. Uranium Security

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Uranium is a crucial mineral for energy and national security—it fuels the nuclear energy that underpins today’s economy and is key to propelling future growth to meet the surge in energy demand from artificial intelligence. However, supply chain vulnerabilities and dependencies on foreign adversaries challenge U.S. leadership in the sector and create national and energy security risks. Russia and China are rapidly expanding their offtake of mined uranium from international partners, uranium enrichment capabilities, and nuclear infrastructure. To strengthen uranium and nuclear fuel supply chains, the United States must work with allies, implement conducive trade and tariff policies, and invest in both domestic enrichment capacity and uranium ore production abroad.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Economic Security, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Russia, Central Asia, North America, and United States of America

37. Mining for Defense: Unlocking the Potential for U.S.-Canada Collaboration on Critical Minerals

Author:: Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Henry Ziemer, and Alejandra Toro
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: China’s near monopolistic control of many critical minerals, which are essential for both for consumer products and defense production, represents an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States at a time of heightened geopolitical tension. Canada, which already supplies the United States with large quantities of certain essential metals, is well positioned as an alternative source for many of the critical minerals controlled by China, thus contributing to North American national and economic security. Bolstering cooperation on critical minerals for the defense industry furthermore offers a way for both countries to find common ground amid frustrations surrounding trade and security.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Mining, Collaboration, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

38. Russia’s Shadow War Against the West

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Russia is conducting an escalating and violent campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and U.S. targets in Europe led by Russian military intelligence (the GRU), according to a new CSIS database of Russian activity. The number of Russian attacks nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024. Russia’s primary targets have included transportation, government, critical infrastructure, and industry, and its main weapons and tactics have included explosives, blunt or edged instruments (such as anchors), and electronic attack. Despite the increase in Russian attacks, Western countries have not developed an effective strategy to counter these attacks.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

39. Foreign Malign Influence Targeting U.S. and Allied Corporations

Author:: Daniel Byman
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: U.S. corporations are regular targets of foreign governments seeking to undermine the United States. These hostile states have both commercial and strategic motives, and they use disinformation, malinformation, and artificial promotion to tarnish the reputations of U.S. companies. U.S. corporations and the U.S. government should take steps to mitigate this threat, including improving corporate counterintelligence, building networks of advocates for use in crisis situations, and sharing more information on the scope and scale of the problem.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, Geopolitics, Corporations, and Irregular Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

40. Building Critical Minerals Cooperation Between the United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is one of the world’s most resource-rich countries, and in 2024, it attracted the largest volume of mineral exploration investment in Africa. Enhancing U.S.-DRC cooperation is critical to counterbalance China’s dominance. The United States has historically underinvested in commercial diplomacy in the DRC, while China has established control over key mines through state-backed financing and infrastructure-for-resources deals. This brief answers two questions: First, how can the U.S. government utilize its resources to maximize impact in this sector? And second, what reforms can the DRC government implement to attract investment? Building the bilateral minerals partnership will require a suite of bilateral diplomatic, financial, and legislative reforms.
Topic:: Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, United States of America, and Democratic Republic of Congo

41. Improving the Efficiency of NRC Power Reactor Licensing: Environmental Reviews

Author:: Matt Bowen and Rama T. Ponangi
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Achieving net-zero emissions in the United States by mid-century requires the rapid buildout of low-carbon energy infrastructure. One challenge to this rapid buildout is the environmental reviews required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which are part of federal approval processes for new energy projects. This process has increasingly caused significant delays and added costs, and the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) of 2023 was passed by Congress in part to address these issues through amendments to NEPA that impose timelines on environmental reviews. For nuclear power, a low-carbon energy source that has a role in many US net-zero scenarios, environmental reviews are conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as part of its reactor licensing process. Because this process has at times been lengthy and costly, Congress passed the 2024 ADVANCE Act in part to require the NRC to implement its responsibilities under NEPA more efficiently. During the 2000s and 2010s, most of the environmental impact statements (EISs) these reviews produced would not have complied with NEPA’s new FRA timeline (two years or fewer) and page limit (150, or in extraordinary cases 300). More recent NRC environmental reviews for test reactor deployments have been somewhat quicker and had shorter review documents, perhaps a recognition by the agency that the efficiency of this process needed improvement. This report, part of a series of publications on nuclear licensing reform at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, focuses on how the NRC can fulfill the new legal mandates on time and page limits for environmental reviews and in general improve the efficiency of these reviews. The report demonstrates that earlier (1970s–80s) environmental reviews for nuclear power reactors licensed under the 10 CFR 50 licensing pathway took less time and generated shorter review documents than those conducted under 10 CFR 52 during the 2000s and 2010s. The latter reviews—all of which were for large light water reactor projects—also utilized substantial NRC resources, thereby incurring significant costs to the applicants. None of these reviews found that the reactor projects were expected to create what the NRC calls “large adverse” environmental impacts, which could destabilize environmental resources. Although some “moderate adverse” impacts were identified, they typically came from unavoidable elements such as new transmission lines and traffic that would result from any large construction project. And beneficial impacts always came in the form of jobs and taxes. At the very least, these findings raise questions about the allocation of time and resources to various aspects of the NRC’s environmental review.
Topic:: Environment, Regulation, Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Permitting
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

42. Collateral Effects of the Tariff War on ASEAN Food Security

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Kayven Tan
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The United States and China are locked in a cycle of escalating tariffs, with likely knock-on impacts on global food supplies and prices. In response to increases in tariff rates imposed by the US on China’s exports, China hit back with additional tariffs on US$21 billion worth of US agricultural products in March 2025. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs will mean an additional 10 per cent tariff on soybeans, sorghum, beef, pork, aquatic and dairy products, fruits, and vegetables, and an additional 15 per cent tariff on wheat, corn, maize, and chicken from the US. Given the tense words exchanged by leaders and officials on both sides in recent days, neither side appears ready to back down from these trade measures. The food security concern for ASEAN states is whether the trade war will impact the supply and prices of food in a region where 37 per cent, or 251 million people, cannot afford a healthy diet. Many Asian states rely heavily on imports for their food. Wheat is used in household staples such as noodles and bread, while corn and soybeans are used for food and livestock feed.
Topic:: Food Security, Tariffs, Trade Wars, ASEAN, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

43. California Wildfires and Planetary Health

Author:: Pey Peili
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The California wildfires are an environmental disaster, but they also point to a deeper set of challenges, not only for the United States of America but for the global community. Such wildfires, which are ever-increasing in frequency and scale due to the impact of climate change, result in structural damage and long-term health risks that disproportionately affect vulnerable communities and are a costly burden to the state. A planetary health approach highlights the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the climate-environment-health interface in managing the risk and incidence of wildfires.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Natural Disasters, and Wildfires
Political Geography:: California, North America, and United States of America

44. Trump Takes on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s actions and announcements to date regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are reversing the decisions of previous administrations and strengthening Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position. At the same time, they threaten the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The deliberately ambiguous statements about the resolution of the crisis seem gauged to increase pressure on regional states and European partners.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

45. China Building Up BRICS as Important Foreign Policy Tool

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: BRICS is useful for China in its rivalry with the U.S., mainly as a tool to influence developing countries. It is also an important element of strategic cooperation with Russia and a platform for dialogue with India. China does not care about BRICS integration, instead it wants to consolidate the group’s participants to further China’s goals.. The EU’s response to this should include effective support for developing countries and a subjective approach to their demands for global governance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, BRICS, Rivalry, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

46. The U.S. Pursues Increasingly Aggressive Policy towards Latin America

Author:: Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to rebuild U.S. influence in Latin America. It is trying to convince the countries of the region that cooperation with the United States will bring development and increased security to the Americas. For the time being, however, this approach mainly serves U.S. security interests, in particular combating irregular migration, organised crime and drug trafficking, and reducing China’s influence. The current administration’s threats, inconsistent positions, and expansionist drive will deepen the distrust of the U.S. and antagonise important Latin American partners.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

47. U.S. Interest in Greenland Reflects the Ongoing Competition in the Arctic

Author:: Kinga Dudzińska and Paweł Markiewicz
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested his intention to attach Greenland to the U.S., a move that has met with opposition from the Greenlandic and Danish governments. The pressure from the U.S. is one manifestation of its aspirations to strengthen its position in the North Atlantic, both because of the strategic importance of the island and the growing international rivalries in the Arctic. The situation will require greater EU and NATO involvement in the High North, as well as consideration of this perspective by countries outside the region, such as Poland.
Topic:: NATO, European Union, Donald Trump, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Greenland, Arctic, and United States of America

48. Securing a development-friendly US trade policy: the urgent need for an AGOA revamp

Author:: Wolfgang Britz, Zoryana Olekseyuk, and Tim Vogel
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In times of heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, it is increasingly vital to secure a development-friendly approach toward African countries. They are among the most vulnerable to climate change, conflicts and pandemics, yet are also gaining geo-economic significance. Given the expiry of the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in 2020 and the upcoming expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in September 2025, Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries urge policymakers to timely reauthorise and upgrade the non-reciprocal trade programme to improve market access to the US and ensure long-term support for sustainable development across the African continent. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 was introduced to Congress with bipartisan support, the election of Donald Trump and his “America First” approach have increased doubts about a swift extension of AGOA. This policy brief examines the potential effects of the expirations of GSP and AGOA using a multi-region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. By simulating the shift from duty-free to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment, we find the following: All in all, aggregated effects over all countries are rather muted while some specific countries face strong losses. Whereas bilateral exports of AGOA-eligible countries to the US decline by 3.7%, their total exports fall by only 0.1%, with real GDP remaining almost unaffected. Looking more closely, specific SSA countries would face high bilateral losses: The most substantial reduction of exports to the US occurs in Lesotho (-35%), Malawi (-25%) and Kenya (-16%), while welfare decline is the highest in Lesotho and Mauritius. The most affected sectors are sugar, wearing apparel, leather, dairy products, and beverages and tobacco. The limited aggregate effects of a loss in trade preferences are mainly driven by relatively weak ties of SSA to the US and rather low US MFN tariff rates. This highlights the limited effectiveness of the AGOA preference scheme, indicating that its renewal should go hand in hand with a comprehensive modernisation of the programme. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 acknowledges this, it still falls short of modernising the programme in some key areas. To ensure long-term benefits for SSA economies, we recommend: • A swift reauthorisation for a longer period, incorporating continuation provisions to reduce future uncertainty. • More transparent and predictable eligibility reviews, with a possibility of partial exclusion for non-compliance, would also help mitigate uncertainty. • Expansion of rules of origin, which is crucial for stimulating intra-continental trade and enhancing value addition within SSA. • Widening the programme’s scope by addressing, for example, digital trade, services, non-tariff measures, regulatory cooperation and investment facilitation.
Topic:: Development, Exports, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

49. Trump’s assault on foreign aid: implications for international development cooperation

Author:: Sebastian Haug, Anna Novoselova, and Stephan Klingebiel
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The United States of America has long been a leading force in international development cooperation, both politically and financially. However, the first weeks of the second Trump administration have called the traditional role of US foreign aid fundamentally into question. From a 90-day funding freeze to the withdrawal from United Nations (UN) bodies and the dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), measures taken by Trump and his team are not only having palpable repercussions on a wide range of humanitarian and development programmes, but they also point to more far-reaching implications. Against this backdrop, this paper presents the contours and discusses the global consequences of Trump’s assault on US foreign aid, as of late February 2025. We outline the extant role of the United States as a donor in Section 2 and review the changes announced – and/or implemented – by the current US government in Section 3. Section 4 discusses the implications of US funding cuts for bilateral cooperation, while Section 5 focuses on repercussions on multilateral development work. Section 6 outlines three scenarios on how the ongoing changes in the United States might affect the field of international development. We discuss the possible ramifications of (a) a revamped US approach to foreign aid centring on crude national interests, (b) a US retreat that is at least partially offset by other providers and (c) a US retreat without other providers stepping in. Section 7 concludes by discussing the implications for dealing with the second Trump administration. We outline four recommendations that address stakeholders across the – increasingly outdated – donor–recipient divide: (1) refining development cooperation approaches, (2) strengthening the multilateral development system, (3) promoting Southern self-reliance and (4) fostering alliances beyond a Trump-led US government.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, International Development, Donald Trump, and USAID
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

50. Thompson’s Rifle Battalion: The Original Unit of the Army of the United Colonies (Now the United States Regular Army)

Author:: John A. Bonin
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Although 1775 is indisputably the birth year of the US Army, two events occurred on June 14 of that year to which the Army can credit its birthday. One is the adoption by the Continental Congress of the collective militia forces from several colonies outside Boston to form a Continental Army, of which Congress appointed George Washington the commander in chief on June 15, 1775. In addition, the US Regular Army officially dates its beginning to June 14, 1775, when the Second Continental Congress directed 10 companies of expert riflemen to be raised immediately in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia. William Thompson’s commission as the colonel of the Pennsylvania Rifle Battalion was dated June 25, 1775, and made him the first colonel of what would eventually become, through George Washington’s Continental Army, the US Regular Army. But William Thompson has not found a prominent place in the American pantheon of revolutionary heroes for a variety of reasons. In addition, Thompson’s Pennsylvania Rifle Battalion later became the 1st Continental Regiment and ended the American Revolution as the 1st Pennsylvania Regiment, but its lineage has not continued in the modern US Army.
Topic:: History, Militias, Military, American Revolution, George Washington, and William Thompson
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

51. Assessing the Zeitenwende: Implications for Germany, the United States, and Transatlantic Security

Author:: John R. Deni, Marina E. Henke, Aylin Matlé, Sophia Besch, and Tim Bosch
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The essays in this volume analyze Germany’s Zeitenwende, a pivotal shift in security policy triggered by Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Key topics include national security strategy, defense policy, energy policy, industrial strategy, and international relations with Russia, China, the United States, NATO, and the EU. Regarding strategy, Germany’s approach lacks focus, offering broad goals without addressing trade-offs or specific threats. On defense policy, the Zeitenwende marked a renewed commitment to defense spending, bolstered by a €100 billion modernization fund. But delays in procurement, operational shortcomings, and an underfunded long-term defense budget hinder Germany. Similar challenges affect the defense industry, despite increased spending and exports. In energy policy, Germany rapidly diversified energy sources and expanded its liquefied natural gas infrastructure to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. Still, achieving energy security, affordability, and sustainability remains complex. Internationally, Germany abandoned decades of Ostpolitik, prioritizing Ukraine over ties with Russia. Germany’s evolving China policy focuses on derisking and maintaining economic ties, raising questions about whether Berlin has reduced vulnerabilities. Though Washington supports Germany’s strategic shift, concerns remain about its sustainability, particularly in Germany’s NATO and EU commitments. Each chapter concludes by identifying the implications for the United States as well as the steps to overcome identified challenges.
Topic:: NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Energy Security, Burden Sharing, and Zeitenwende
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Germany, and United States of America

52. The Origins of the Second US Civil War

Author:: Mark Southern
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The paper, “The Origins of the Second U.S. Civil War”, provides a hypothetical assessment of what might follow a disputed 2024 American election, and outlines three factors that would facilitate a fall into civil violence in such a scenario. Donald Trump has expediated a deterioration of the American political environment, and has targeted a specific subset of American citizenry. This subset has a rich militaristic tradition, and this paper argues that they might be instrumental in the devolution of future US politics. The power of the American military establishment has greatly increased post-WWII, and this paper also argues that the increased institutional pull held by the armed forces might similarly contribute to the outbreak of civil violence.
Topic:: Civil War, Military, Risk Assessment, and Civil Violence
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

53. Hypersonic Myths and Strategic Realities

Author:: Mihai Giboi
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: After decades of deterrence preventing nuclear war, hypersonic weapons appear poised to undermine strategic stability due to their speed, manoeuvrability, and potential ability to defeat missile defences. Because of their technological characteristics, Canadian and American discourse largely conclude that they will pose challenges to the international security environment, especially nuclear deterrence. However, the literature’s technical lens provides exaggerated threat assessments that assert hypersonics could disrupt the strategic nuclear balance, without acknowledging the risk of retaliation. Consequently, this paper counters these claims by drawing from Thomas Schelling’s emphasis on mutual vulnerability, and Kenneth Waltz’s insights about counterforce limitations, to demonstrate that hypersonic weapons cannot undermine strategic stability because they are subject to the same constraints that discourage a nuclear attack. It also argues that attacking command-and-control is more dangerous than attempting a counterforce strike, since it does not attempt to physically neutralize a second-strike capability.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Deterrence, and Hypersonic Weapons
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

54. The Role of Mass Media Propaganda in Shaping American Culture: A Study on the Torches of Freedom

Author:: Oğuz Kartav and Mikail Uğuş
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This study examines the profound impact of mass media propaganda on American culture, with a particular focus on the iconic Torches of Freedom campaign. Originating in the late 19th century and led by Edward Bernays, this campaign aimed to reshape social norms surrounding women and smoking. Initially, a societal taboo prevailed, suggesting that respectable women did not smoke. Although tobacco consumption was common in America during the late 19th century, women were neither expected nor permitted to partake in the consumption of tobacco products until 1929. Women were eventually allowed the option to smoke discreetly, but even then, it was considered taboo by American society due to its perceived unfeminine nature. Particularly in North America and Europe, women’s smoking had long been associated with immorality and questionable sexual behaviour. Through the analysis of historical documents, media artefacts, and scholarly literature, this research examines the multifaceted impact of the Torches of Freedom campaign on American culture. It explores how mass media, through carefully crafted messages and imagery, played a significant and influential role in shaping public perceptions and behaviour. By examining the campaign’s relationship with dominant cultural ideologies and its effects on gender roles, the research aims to illuminate the complex interplay between propaganda, cultural values, and social change. The study focuses on advertising, consumerism, and cultural practices in the United States by examining the strategies employed in the Torches of Freedom campaign through the lens of propaganda.
Topic:: Mass Media, Culture, Propaganda, and Advertising
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

55. The Two Faces of American Freedom with Aziz Rana (Episode 28)

Author:: Aziz Rana and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Let’s take stock of the American experience within the global history of colonialism – specifically by examining the intertwined relationship in U.S. constitutional practice between internal accounts of freedom and external projects of power and expansion. This episode reinterprets American political traditions from the colonial period to modern times by placing race, immigration, and national security in the context of shifting notions of empire and citizenship. Host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) addresses these issues with “The Two Faces of American Freedom (https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/978...) ” author and Boston College Law Professor Aziz Rana (https://www.bc.edu/bc-web/schools/law...) .
Topic:: National Security, Race, History, Immigration, Constitution, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

56. Islamophobia, Race and Global Politics with Nazia Kazi (Episode 27)

Author:: Nazia Kazi and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This week’s episode offers a powerful introduction to the scope of Islamophobia in the United States. The legacy of Barack Obama and the mainstream media’s typically negative portrayals of Muslims offer incisive examples into the vast impact of Islamophobia – connected to the long history of racism – both within the borders of the United States, and as a matter of foreign policy and global politics. Host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) addresses these issues with “Islamophobia, Race and Global Politics (https://www.amazon.com/Islamophobia-R...) ” author and Stockton University Professor Nazia Kazi (https://drnaziakazi.com/) .
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Race, Islamophobia, and Global Politics
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

57. Hate Crimes, Terrorism and the Framing of White Supremacist Violence with Shirin Sinnar (Episode 26)

Author:: Shirin Sinnar and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: In the face of pervasive racial violence in American society, the effort to address and subdue white supremacist extremism has been underserved by the framing of “hate crimes,” and the movement to re-frame these events as domestic terrorism, as these terms do not meet the heavy task of eliminating the perpetuation of institutional oppression.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, White Supremacy, Racism, Hate Crimes, and Domestic Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States of America and North America

58. ICC Investigation of Biden Administration Officials for Aiding Israeli War Crimes with Sarah Leah Whitson

Author:: Sarah Whitson and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: In January of 2025, the human rights organization, Democracy in the Arab World Now (DAWN) (https://dawnmena.org/) , made a formal request with the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate former U.S. officials President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin for their accessorial roles in aiding and abetting, as well as intentionally contributing to, Israeli war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. With the support of ICC-registered lawyers and other war crimes experts, the submission details a pattern of deliberate and purposeful decisions by these officials to provide military, political, and public support to facilitate Israeli crimes in Gaza; this support included at least $17.9 billion of weapons transfers, intelligence sharing, targeting assistance, diplomatic protection, and official endorsement of Israeli crimes, despite knowledge of how such support had and would substantially enable grave abuses. Join host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) in conversation with Sarah Leah Whitson (https://dawnmena.org/experts/sarah-le...) , executive director of DAWN, about the key facts and law supporting the request for the International Criminal Court to investigate Biden officials for aiding and abetting Israeli War Crimes in Gaza.
Topic:: International Law, War Crimes, International Criminal Court (ICC), and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

59. Coming Out as Dalit: A Memoir of Surviving India's Caste System with Yashica Dutt

Author:: Yashica Dutt
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Born into a “formerly untouchable manual-scavenging family in small-town India,” Yashica Dutt was taught from a young age to not appear “Dalit looking.” Although prejudice against Dalits, who compose 25% of the population, has been illegal since 1950, caste-ism in India is alive and well. Blending her personal history with extensive research and reporting, Dutt provides an incriminating analysis of caste’s influence in India over everything from entertainment to judicial systems and how this discrimination has carried over to US institutions.
Topic:: Minorities, Discrimination, Institutions, Judiciary, and Caste
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and United States of America

60. Race and Empire: Legal Theory Within, Through and Across National Borders with Asli Bali

Author:: Asli Bâli and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: In the Global South, the possibility of a post-imperial reality self-determined by former subjects of the empire has been undermined by the dominant Western narrative that centers “humanitarian initiatives, politics of counterterrorism, and migration control”. Host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) will speak with expert, advocate and Law Professor Dr. Asli U. Bali to deconstruct the mainstream narrative that portrays the international system and its dominant actors as benevolent agents of humanitarianism in regions like Libya.
Topic:: Imperialism, Race, Global South, Self-Determination, International System, and Post-Colonial
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

61. Silencing Dissent:The Islamophobia Industry's Assault on Academic Freedom

Author:: Mobashra Tazamal and Nader Hashemi
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: The few academic centers in the United States focused on combating Islamophobia are under attack by special interest groups and politicians opposed to equality of speech, knowledge production, and rights for Muslims. Experts will discuss the origins and harms arising from the Islamophobia industry's assault on academic freedom.
Topic:: Freedom of Expression, Islamophobia, Knowledge Production, Academic Freedom, and Muslims
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

62. The Last Plantation: Racism and Resistance in the Halls of Congress with James Jones (3/25/25)

Author:: James Jones
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Federal lawmakers, congressional employees, and political journalists have labeled Congress the "Last Plantation." Professor James Jones examines the careers, experiences, and activism of Black congressional staffers, demonstrating how lawmakers have maintained a racialized workplace.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Racism, and Congress
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

63. Race, Women and the Global War on Terror with Sherene Razack (Episode 30)

Author:: Sherene Razack
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This episode of the Race and Rights podcast features Professor Sherene Razack (https://gender.ucla.edu/person/sheren...) discuss how racialized Muslim bodies and gender are constructed by global white supremacy that produces and sustains networks, affinities and ideas in the so-called Global War on Terror. Sherene Razack (https://gender.ucla.edu/person/sheren...) is a Distinguished Professor and the Penny Kanner Endowed Chair in Women’s Studies at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and author of the Nothing Has to Make Sense: Upholding White Supremacy through Anti-Muslim Racism (https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/nothing...) (University of Minnesota 2022).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Race, Women, Islamophobia, War on Terror, and White Supremacy
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

64. 50-30: From the Fall of Saigon to U.S. Political Participation

Author:: Duy Linh Tu, Lan Cao, and Hoi Trinh
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Duy Linh Tu, Dean of Academic Affairs and Professor of Professional Practice at the Columbia Journalism School, moderates a discussion with Lan Cao of the Chapman University School of Law and Hoi Trinh, Executive Director, Vietnamese Overseas Initiative for Conscience Empowerment, that traces the arc of Vietnamese American political engagement over the past 50 years. Co-hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and the Columbia Journalism School, this program was part of the three-day series "50-30: From War to Peace in Vietnam and the United States," held at Columbia University from April 30 – May 2, 2025.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Vietnam War, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:: Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

65. 50-30: Lessons from the U.S.-Vietnam Reconciliation: Roadmap for the World

Author:: Wafaa El-Sadr, Jean-Marie Guéhenno, Paige Arthur, Dany Dinh Quy, and Adam Tooze
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Commemorating 50 years since the end of the Vietnam War and the 30th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietnam rapprochement, members of Columbia Global and Vietnam's former representative at the United Nations reflect on potential lessons for the rest of the world in the two countries' gradual reconciliation. Chair: Wafaa El-Sadr, Executive Vice President of Columbia Global Moderator: Jean-Marie Guehenno, Director of the Kent Global Leadership Program on Conflict Resolution, SIPA Speakers: Paige Arthur, Director of Global Programming, Columbia Global Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy, former Permanent Representative of Vietnam to the United Nations Adam Tooze, Chair of the Committee on Global Thought; Director of the European Institute; Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of History Hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and co-sponsored by Columbia Global, this program was part of the three-day series "50-30: From War to Peace in Vietnam and the United States," held at Columbia University from April 30 through May 2, 2025.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Reconciliation, Vietnam War, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:: Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

66. Ronnie C. Chan: The Past, Present, and Future of U.S.-China Relations

Author:: Ronnie C. Chan and Lien-Hang Nguyen
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: December 2, 2024 — Ronnie C. Chan, Honorary Chair of Hang Lung Properties and Chair Emeritus of the Asia Society, speaks with Lien-Hang Nguyen, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, about the implications of the 2024 U.S. presidential election for the future of U.S.-China relations and global stability. Columbia University Interim President Katrina Armstrong and University Professor Jeffrey Sachs contribute introductory remarks.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Political stability
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

67. Superstorm Sandy and Coastal Corralling in New York City

Author:: Ari Lippi
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: On October 29, 2012, a cyclone and a tropical storm fused under an inauspicious full moon off the Atlantic Northwest of the US to create Hurricane Sandy. It beelined toward the New York City metropolitan area at high tide and became the most destructive and costly hurricane in the City’s history; costing NYC $19 billion in in damages, 43 deaths and the absence of electricity and heat for around two million people. While the impacts were widespread, the neighborhoods of Coney Island and the Rockaways experienced widely disparate impacts which magnified the underlying social vulnerabilities among low-income racialized and ethicized populations. This paper positions Hurricane Sandy as a locus of interrogation to question how discriminatory policies excised low-income and socially vulnerable populations to the environmentally vulnerable lands of Coney Island and the Rockaways at the time of Sandy, and what injustices preceded the event and were engendered as a result. To answer these questions, this paper will examine the sequence of displacement and place-making over time that created channels for populations with existing social vulnerabilities to be thrust into environmentally risky coastal areas in New York City. Ultimately, the process, which I name coastal corralling, created the conditions for the little-discussed post-storm disaster and environmental injustices in Coney Island and the Rockaways, producing chronic issues that continue to persist over a decade after the storm.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Hurricane, and Hurricane Sandy
Political Geography:: New York, North America, and United States of America

68. White Homeowners’ Racialized Opposition to Affordable Housing Development

Author:: Jose Luis Gandara
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: I investigate the effects of the race of the perceived beneficiaries of an affordable housing development on white homeowners’ support for the project, using an online survey experiment with 520 participants. I find that priming respondents to believe a nearby proposed project’s residents will likely be Black significantly increases opposition compared to the white prime. However, the effect is moderated by respondents’ racial attitudes, such that self-reported racially sensitive individuals instead become more supportive when led to believe a project’s residents will be Black. Despite racial cues increasing opposition, respondents do not express different concerns with development in a racialized context. These results suggest that race is a central factor driving attitudes toward affordable housing; however, racially motivated public commenters mask their concerns behind those ostensibly unrelated to race. Policymakers concerned with advancing equity while addressing the housing crisis may reconsider public comment’s role informing them of the public’s preferences toward development.
Topic:: Racism, Equity, and Affordable Housing
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

69. Two Roads to Reform: Marijuana Policy Changes, Arrest Trends, and Racial Disparities in Chicago and Indianapolis

Author:: Mustafa Ali-Smith and Keiana West
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: This paper examines the relationship between marijuana policy changes, arrest trends, and racial disparities in arrests in two major U.S. cities, Indianapolis and Chicago, between 2014 and 2023. Chicago implemented statewide legalization in January 2020, while Indianapolis decriminalized certain marijuana offenses at the county level in September 2019. By analyzing public arrest data from Chicago and the State of Indiana, this research addresses three key questions: whether marijuana-related arrests declined after these policy changes, how racial disparities in arrests changed after these shifts, and how marijuana arrest trends compare with those for other drugs. Our findings reveal significant reductions in marijuana-related arrests in both cities following policy reforms, though the degree of change varied. The results also demonstrate stark racial disparities in marijuana arrest rates both prior to and following policy changes in each city, though racial disparities decreased in both Chicago and Indianapolis following each policy change during the study period. Ultimately, racial disparities in both cities increased again as time after reform passed, signaling the need for policies and practices that sustain decreases in disparities overtime.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Reform, Marijuana, and Drug Policy
Political Geography:: North America, Chicago, United States of America, and Indianapolis

70. Forecasting Nuclear Escalation Risks: Cloudy With a Chance of Fallout

Author:: Jamie Kwong, Anna Bartoux, and James M. Acton
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Forecasting—that is, estimating the probability of specified events’ occurring—can contribute to efforts to better understand and address the challenge of managing escalation.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Forecast, Escalation, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

71. What the White House and Congress Can Do to Prevent Global Mass Atrocities

Author:: Federica D'Alessandra
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Unites States has long recognized that preventing and responding to mass atrocities is both a moral responsibility and in its national security interest. Commitment to atrocity prevention and response has long enjoyed broad bipartisan support, and the U.S. government has long been a global leader on the issue. In 2011, the United States was the first country to establish an interagency body dedicated to atrocity prevention. Ever since, each Republican and Democratic administration—with the support of Congress—has taken additional, important steps toward implementing this objective. In 2019, under President Donald Trump, the United States was the first country to enact federal legislation addressing global mass atrocities. The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act mandates the White House to report annually to Congress on government-led atrocity prevention efforts. Under the act, the second Trump administration will again be required to report to Congress by mid-2025, raising the question: What is in store for the atrocity prevention agenda under Trump 2.0? This paper reviews the atrocity prevention track record of the first Trump administration and other relevant action taken so far in this second term to parse out what efforts to sustain and uphold U.S. atrocity prevention obligations could look like under Trump’s second White House. This paper highlights how a number of steps the administration has already taken, including but not limited to the recently announced reorganization of the U.S. Department of State and the effective dissolution of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), unless promptly addressed, will raise dire challenges for the readiness and capacity of the State Department and other relevant agencies tasked with operationalizing U.S. commitments to this end. Accordingly, this paper advances a number of actionable recommendations that both the White House and the U.S. Congress should urgently consider to ensure the administration stands ready and capable to fulfill its obligations under the Elie Wiesel Act and other relevant legislation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

72. Geothermal Energy and U.S. Competitive Advantage: Drill, Baby, Drill

Author:: Robert W. Sweeney and Noah Gordon
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The United States and the rest of the world sit at the intersection of potentially destabilizing trends. Great power competition, climate change, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty, the economy’s potential deglobalization, and the potential massive increase in energy demands arising from artificial intelligence (AI) are creating challenges for U.S. national energy policy. A foremost concern is the vulnerability of energy supply chains to interference from or control by a hostile power. In this dynamic context, U.S. energy policy has evolved significantly in terms of markets, supplies, regulation, and legislation. The country’s success in using fracking technology and exploiting abundant shale reserves have made it the world’s largest producer of hydrocarbons and a major exporter, especially of natural gas.1 Further, as national and international concerns about climate change have grown, U.S. energy policy has become more aligned with transitioning to renewable sources. So far, the focus of clean energy additions has been on wind, solar, and nuclear power. Beginning in the mid-2000s, the United States issued legislation and policies raising renewable energy to the level of industrial policy. Among those were the Energy Policy Act (2005), the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009), the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) (2021), the CHIPS and Science Act (2022), and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (2022). However, geothermal energy—which uses the heat of the earth’s crust for power—has been largely left out of U.S. industrial policy. This is despite the facts that utilizing this source of renewable energy requires some of the same technologies that have made the United States the world’s top oil and gas producer and that geothermal has the potential to provide clean, dispatchable power that does not rely on weather conditions. With U.S. clean firm power demand expected to increase by approximately 700–900 gigawatts by 2050,2 the United States needs to dramatically increase capacity while reducing or eliminating net carbon output and insulating its energy supply from dependence on international supply chains. The question for the country now is: how should public and private resources be directed to provide the United States with an energy system optimized for the current national and international environment? This paper argues that recent advances in geothermal power have made it the technology with superior characteristics for future U.S. energy system development. With its comparative advantages, geothermal power merits an urgent, intense, and dedicated reorientation of U.S. industrial policy, legislation, and resources.
Topic:: Development, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Geothermal Power
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

73. China Decoupling Beyond the United States: Comparing Germany, Japan, and India

Author:: Joshua Sullivan and Jon Bateman
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Key U.S. partners are moving toward less technological integration with China. But their specific paths diverge significantly based on domestic circumstances and varied relationships with Beijing.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Economy, Regional Integration, and Decoupling
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, Asia, Germany, and United States of America

74. El Salvador, No Place for Asylum Seekers

Author:: Laura Blume, Stephanie Sosa, and Andrea García Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Deported from the United States without due process, asylum seekers now face political persecution and deadly conditions in El Salvador’s mega-prisons as the Trump administration outsources cruelty to the Bukele regime.
Topic:: Prisons/Penal Systems, Donald Trump, Deportation, Due Process, Nayib Bukele, and Asylum Seekers
Political Geography:: Central America, El Salvador, and United States of America

75. Tren de Aragua: A Gang, Not Terrorist Invaders

Author:: Elliott Young
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to target Venezuelan migrants relies on a false narrative about Tren de Aragua and the Venezuelan state, and sets a dangerous precedent for immigrant rights.
Topic:: Immigration, Deportation, Gangs, and Tren de Aragua
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

76. This Spanglish Bookstore In New York Is Reclaiming Bushwick's Sense Of Latinidad

Author:: Victoria Mortimer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Mil Mundos began as a means for María Herrón to reclaim her identity. Now, this bookstore’s founder is building a community among Latines in Brooklyn, New York.
Topic:: Community, Identity, and Spanglish
Political Geography:: New York, North America, and United States of America

77. The U.S. Is Helping Brazilian Police Kill

Author:: Joseph Bouchard
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Brazil’s highly militarized policing disproportionately impacts poor and racialized communities. By providing funding and training, the United States has helped exacerbate the crisis.
Topic:: Training, Police, Militarization, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

78. The U.S. War on Migrants Gets Help from El Salvador

Author:: Timothy O'Farrell
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: El Salvador's offer to house deportees and U.S. citizens in its infamous prisons – for profit – signals a new and troubling escalation in the criminalization of migration.
Topic:: Migration, Prisons/Penal Systems, Donald Trump, Deportation, and Criminalization
Political Geography:: Latin America, El Salvador, and United States of America

79. Impacts of the Artificial Intelligence on International Relations: Towards a Global Algorithms Governance

Author:: Vicente Garrido Rebolledo
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article examines the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on international relations (IR) and global governance. It begins by presenting a conceptual framework that situates AI within the theoretical and practical dimensions of IR, and explores how AI influences global power dynamics, alters state behaviour, and reshapes institutional frameworks. The study highlights the ethical and regulatory challenges of AI governance, focusing first on the efforts of the United Nations (UN), the Council of Europe and the European Union (EU). Later, the article discusses the "AI technology race" between the United States and China and their regulations. Finally, the article highlights the need for ethical and responsible AI development to foster global cooperation and address the challenges and opportunities that this technology presents in contemporary international relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, United Nations, Governance, European Union, Regulation, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, and Council of Europe
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

80. How to Spend It: European defence for the age of mass precision

Author:: Chris Kremidas-Courtney
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Europe urgently needs to redefine its defence strategy in response to the United States’ growing disengagement from its transatlantic allies. The suspension of US military assistance to Ukraine and calls for increased European self-reliance have forced policymakers to rapidly reassess how to sustain collective security. The European Union’s ReArm EU plan seeks to mobilise €800 billion in national defence spending to meet these challenges, but investments must be made wisely to prepare for future warfare. Modern warfare has entered into an era of mass precision, where forces can achieve the effects of massed firepower through distributed, AI-enabled, and highly accurate weapons systems. Ukraine’s innovative use of drone swarms and precision strikes against Russian forces has demonstrated this shift. China and the US are also leveraging mass precision to reshape the battlefield, making traditional mass-based warfare increasingly obsolete. However, while armoured vehicles, fighter jets, and ships require new protections, they remain essential when integrated into networked, distributed operations. To prepare for this new strategic reality, Europe must: Invest in mass precision and distributed operations – Prioritise drone warfare, deep-strike capabilities, and networked operations. Accelerate investment in the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) programme to develop long-range cruise missiles. Build a European command-and-control (C2) system – Reduce reliance on NATO’s US-centric C2 infrastructure. Strengthen Europe’s intelligence capabilities and decision support – Expand European satellite and cyber capabilities and expand analytical capacities. Strengthen air and missile defence – Accelerate the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) and deploy cost effective countermeasures such as more cost effective laser-based systems. Build a European military logistics system – Ensure the ability to sustain forces and ensure rapid troop and equipment mobility within Europe. Train and exercise European forces at scale – Conduct large-scale joint exercises to build readiness. Buy Ukrainian – Integrate Ukrainian defence firms into EU supply chains. Buy European – Reduce dependence on US arms while leveraging UK, Norwegian, Canadian and Turkish defence industries. Build a European nuclear umbrella – France and the UK should explore extended deterrence options to protect all European allies in case of further US withdrawal. Build a European blue-water navy – Strengthen and expand European naval capabilities to protect vital sea lanes in addition to supporting territorial defence. Winning the next war, not the last one Europe can no longer afford slow, bureaucratic and fragmented defence spending—it must accelerate, integrate and innovate in order to defend itself in the event that the United States is unable or unwilling to do so. We don’t just need bigger budgets—we need a better strategy. The future of warfare is mass precision and distributed operations, enabled by AI, and supported by capabilities that enable decision, cyber and information dominance. If Europe invests wisely, it can be a technologically advanced, resilient and autonomous military power while remaining a robust pillar of NATO’s collective security. The hour of Europe is now.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Weapons, Disengagement, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

81. The e-commerce challenge: Is importing low-value consignments going to become more cumbersome in the EU and the US?

Author:: Anna Jerzewska
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In the last few months, terms such as e-commerce and de minimis (threshold below which imported goods are not subject to tariffs) have made headlines both in the EU and in the US. The rapid growth of e-commerce exacerbated problems with this exemption both in the US and in the EU. The first problem is lack of control. Only a percentage of commercial goods are subject to physical border checks, and for e-commerce goods this number is even smaller. Then there is the issue of endangering the level-playing field. De minimis benefits consumers and businesses that rely on it, but harms domestic manufacturers and retail outlets that import in bulk (and thus are subject to full customs and product standards and safety requirements). But can the challenges around the rapid growth of e-commerce be solved by the removal of de minimis? And what would be the consequences of removing the exemption? The paper summarises recent attempts and proposals of removing de minimis in the EU and the US and the challenges faced by both administrations. In both cases, e-commerce is still under discussion and it’s not clear what the final solution will look like. However, there are already noticeable differences in approach.
Topic:: European Union, Trade, Imports, and E-Commerce
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

82. Biopower: Securing American Leadership in Biotechnology

Author:: Vivek Chilukuri and Hannah Kelley
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The biorevolution is upon us. Converging breakthroughs in biological sequencing, engineering biology, and machine learning are ushering in an almost science fiction–like world in which humans can manipulate and even design the building blocks of life with increasing sophistication—for good or ill. In this world, cutting-edge biotechnologies will create organs, capture carbon emissions, restore polluted environments, tailor medicines to a person’s genes, and replace vulnerable supply chains for food, fuel, fabrics, and firepower with domestic biobased alternatives. According to one estimate, existing biotechnologies could have a direct economic impact of $4 trillion a year for the next 20 years.1 As innovation continues, the ceiling could be far higher. If next-generation biotechnologies hold great promise, they also come with gathering perils from new bioweapons, intrusive biosurveillance, and the race for biotechnology breakthroughs without adequate safeguards for public health, the environment, and democratic values. For policymakers, the question is not whether the biorevolution has transformative power, but which nation will responsibly harness that power to unlock new tools for defense, health, manufacturing, food security, environmental remediation, and the fight against climate change. No country is better positioned to lead the biorevolution than the United States, but it requires that policymakers act now with swift, ambitious, and far-sighted steps to secure America’s place as the global biopower. The United States enters the biorevolution with formidable tailwinds—an unrivaled innovation ecosystem, world-leading research institutes, unmatched private investment, talent, and a global network of democratic partners and allies. Recent federal investments and an emerging policy framework have fortified U.S. leadership. But in this fast-moving field, settling for gradual progress will guarantee falling behind as competitors like China race to eclipse the United States with ambitions to scale up their biotechnology research, innovation, talent, and infrastructure. To secure America’s place as the global biopower, the Trump administration and Congress should accelerate U.S. tailwinds through greater investment in biotechnology research and infrastructure, especially in sectors beyond health and medicine; expand the pipeline of biotalent; and lead globally to drive biotechnology norms, standards-setting, and responsible adoption. At the same time, policymakers must navigate headwinds that could imperil further progress—specifically, an underdeveloped national biomanufacturing infrastructure; insufficient public and private investment that flows overwhelmingly to biotechnology research and development (R&D) in the health and medical sectors; a lack of uniform federal standards, definitions, and codes; a morass of conflicting policies and regulations; inaccessible and insecure biodata; and low public awareness and trust in emerging and ethically fraught biotechnology applications. This report outlines several recommendations to shore up America’s position as the preeminent biopower, including an investment of $20 billion in new federal funding. Policymakers should view this level of investment as the floor of what it will require to secure U.S. biotechnology leadership. Cutting-edge biotechnologies will create organs, capture carbon emissions, restore polluted environments, tailor medicines to a person’s genes, and replace vulnerable supply chains for food, fuel, fabrics, and firepower with domestic biobased alternatives. Regardless of what U.S. policymakers do, countries around the world are moving swiftly to embrace the biorevolution. The United Kingdom (UK) is driving innovation by concentrating and sharing its biodata through the UK Biobank, which houses the fully sequenced genetic codes of 500,000 people.2 France has invested roughly $9.5 billion through Innovation Santé 2030 to drive biomedical research.3 Japan has committed $3 billion to promote its biotechnology ecosystem.4 South Korea is carving out a niche in digital biotechnology and aims to transition 30 percent of its manufacturing industry to biomanufacturing within a decade.5 If any nation can surpass the United States as the global biopower, it will be China. In its most recent five-year plans, Beijing made explicit its ambition to become a biotechnology “superpower.” It is well on its way. China’s biotechnology leadership has surged on the back of significant public investment, long-term policy prioritization, a massive domestic market, decades of largely unrestricted capital flows, and the amassing of biodata through licit and illicit means.6 China’s concerted biotechnology push has already paid dividends: its scholars rank second in the world for authoring biomedical papers, and the country leads high-impact research in biofuels and biomanufacturing. China’s high-impact research in synthetic biology is more than triple that of the United States, posing a high risk of monopolization.7 Today, China is a global biomanufacturing powerhouse that exports roughly 40 percent of the world’s active pharmaceutical ingredients.8 Now, China aspires to move up the biotechnology value chain with a renewed push to support start-ups, integrate its vast biodata with cutting-edge machine learning tools, and dominate emerging markets for biotechnology with “national champions” such as BGI Group and WuXi Biologics, as it did with Huawei and 5G. China’s ambition to close the gap with the United States should inspire action from policymakers to secure and extend America’s lead. To that end, this report outlines a series of immediate and longer-term recommendations in six key areas for leaders in policymaking and industry.
Topic:: Leadership, Innovation, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

83. Averting AI Armageddon: U.S.-China-Russia Rivalry at the Nexus of Nuclear Weapons and Artificial Intelligence

Author:: Jacob Stokes, Colin H. Kahl, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, and Nicholas Lokker
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: In recent years, the previous bipolar nuclear order led by the United States and Russia has given way to a more volatile tripolar one, as China has quantitatively and qualitatively built up its nuclear arsenal. At the same time, there have been significant breakthroughs in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, including for military applications. As a result of these two trends, understanding the AI-nuclear nexus in the context of U.S.-China-Russia geopolitical competition is increasingly urgent. There are various military use cases for AI, including classification models, analytic and predictive models, generative AI, and autonomy. Given that variety, it is necessary to examine the AI-nuclear nexus across three broad categories: nuclear command, control, and communications; structural elements of the nuclear balance; and entanglement of AI-enabled conventional systems with nuclear risks. While each of these categories has the potential to generate risk, this report argues that the degree of risk posed by a particular case depends on three major factors: the role of humans, the degree to which AI systems become a single point of failure, and the AI offense-defense balance. As Russia and China increasingly aim to modernize their nuclear arsenals and integrate AI into their militaries, it is essential for policymakers to be aware of the risks posed by the AI-nuclear nexus. Dealing with China and Russia on issues at this nexus is likely to be difficult in the current diplomatic and military context, characterized by increasingly strained bilateral relationships between the United States and both China and Russia, along with an uptick in coordination between Beijing and Moscow. Nonetheless, there are still various steps that U.S. policymakers could take to bolster deterrence and stability with respect to these issues. These include: building knowledge and competency around issues at the AI-nuclear nexus; integrating AI into diplomatic initiatives related to nuclear and other strategic risks, and vice versa; establishing and promoting norms for the safe use of AI in relation to nuclear arsenals and other strategic capabilities; developing policy and technical criteria for assessing exactly how and when to keep humans in the loop on all nuclear-related processes; including AI technologies as a factor in oversight and reviews of the U.S. nuclear arsenal; investing in AI-enabled cyber and space capabilities to enhance defense and resilience, reduce incentives to attack those areas, and mitigate entanglement risks; consulting closely with U.S. allies about how AI will shape extended deterrence calculations related to both nuclear and conventional capabilities; and pursuing a comprehensive set of risk reduction and crisis management mechanisms with China and Russia while recognizing the obstacles to progress. Failing to take these steps could leave the country and the world dangerously exposed to risks and ill-prepared to seize any opportunities arising from the increasingly salient AI-nuclear nexus.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

84. Assessing China’s Nuclear Decision-Making: Three Analytical Lenses

Author:: Jacob Stokes
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons. This policy brief analyzes that trend by presenting three overarching analytical lenses, or categories of factors, that shape Beijing’s nuclear decision-making: leadership, weapons systems and military organizations, and official policies and doctrine. On leadership, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping likely sees nuclear weapons granting prestige and growing in relevance, but his views on nuclear weapons’ efficacy are less clear. On weapons systems and military organizations, the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal provides the country’s leaders with new options, which could shift those leaders’ intentions over time. Implementation of those options, though, runs through often-corrupt People’s Liberation Army military organizations. On official policies and doctrine, Beijing possibly sees its professed stance as a country that does not engage in U.S.- and Russian-style arms buildups as a source of diplomatic influence, particularly in the developing world or Global South. Separately, the circumstances where China’s nuclear no-first-use policy would face a true test—for example, during a major Taiwan contingency—are precisely the moments when Beijing would have massive incentives to selectively interpret or simply abandon that policy. In the near term, China’s official nuclear weapons policies will likely stay the same, so the gap between rhetoric and action will grow. A bigger arsenal and more nuclear rhetoric and signaling will, over time, also shape future Chinese coercion campaigns. In response, U.S. policymakers should commission an intelligence assessment of Xi’s views of specific nuclear crises, pressure China to issue more explanation of its nuclear policies and capabilities, and expand information sharing about missile tests on a reciprocal basis. U.S. policymakers should also make an authoritative policy statement on what would constitute China reaching nuclear parity with the United States and counter China’s nuclear buildup using both conventional and nuclear capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

85. Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire

Author:: Jacob Stokes, Kareen Hart, Ryan Claffey, and Thomas Corel
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Acontingency across the Taiwan Strait has the potential to reshape the Indo-Pacific and even global security environment. This report explores how states beyond the United States and Taiwan would respond to a major Taiwan contingency. It defines a major Taiwan contingency as a conflict that might start in the so-called gray zone between peace and war but clearly escalates into a larger campaign that has unification as the near-term objective of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Specifically, the report examines how geopolitical interests, values, and material power might determine the approaches of countries across the region and the world. Regional and global responses to a major Taiwan contingency would depend heavily on structural factors present at the time it happens, as well as the specific circumstances of the situation. The report details four key structural factors that would shape states’ responses: the specific nature of the Taiwan contingency, the global trade and technology landscape when the contingency occurs, Taiwanese and U.S. capabilities and responses, and the spectrum of intervention options. Beyond those structural factors, the response from four groups of states would play a major role in determining the outcome of a major Taiwan contingency. The first group is Japan and the Philippines. Both U.S. allies would be on the front lines of a Taiwan conflict and host U.S. forces but are also the most exposed to military retaliation from China. The second group is close U.S. allies and partners South Korea, Australia, and India. Their locations are farther from the main battlespace, but each would have to consider how its response would affect its own security concerns and relations with the United States in the future. Regional and global responses to a major Taiwan contingency would depend heavily on structural factors present at the time it happens, as well as the specific circumstances of the situation. The third group includes the other states in Southeast Asia. Thailand and Singapore would have to consider their defense ties to Washington, while Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar might get requests from Beijing. Other Southeast Asian states would adopt a studiously neutral stance. The fourth group is Europe and the rest of the world. European states now pay more attention to Taiwan, and many see parallels with Ukraine’s plight. But uneven ties with China and a lack of power projection capabilities would mostly limit direct European intervention. Meanwhile, the developing world would likely side with Beijing. And it lacks the political will—much less the proximity or military power—to come to Taipei’s aid. Several findings flow from the analysis: First, it is unlikely that any other states will come to Taiwan’s aid if Taiwan does not fight fiercely and the United States does not intervene on a large scale. Second, geographic proximity increases a country’s stake in the defense of Taiwan, but that same closeness also makes countries more vulnerable to PRC retaliation. Third, any Taiwan contingency would cause massive economic harm, so states would try to balance protecting their economic interests—especially access to high-end semiconductors—with ending the conflict just to stem the disruption caused by the fighting. Fourth, states’ choices will reflect their national interests and values, but those responses will depend to a significant degree on what others do. U.S. policymakers should take the following actions to best position Washington to mount an effective coalition defense of Taiwan during a contingency, should those policymakers choose to do so: Prioritize preventing a Taiwan contingency. Reinforce with Taipei how much would hinge on Taiwan’s contingency response, both in terms of demonstrating will and capabilities. Expect limited contributions but be creative in exploring what in the spectrum of intervention might be possible. Deepen intra-Asian and Euro-Asian security ties that include the United States. Support and, where possible, facilitate the growth of intra-Asian security ties that do not rely on the United States as the hub. Plan for humanitarian evacuation operations as a means to encourage Southeast Asian countries to think through a Taiwan contingency.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Coalition, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

86. Options of Jordan Foreign Policy in Light of “Deal of the Century” Regionally and Internationally

Author:: Sahar Tarawneh
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This study aimed to highlight the options of Jordan's foreign policy and its political behavior in light of the Deal of the Century regionally and internationally, in addition to identify it by examine the political conditions that prompted the US administration to propose this project, and by clarify its terms and the Jordanian popular and official position on it, as well as future features of the deal of the century, in particular after the American President lose / Donald Trump, and leave of Benjamin Netanyahu from the Israeli prime minister.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Regional Politics, and Deal of the Century
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and United States of America

87. From Soft Balancing to Bandwagoning: Contemporary Brazil–Us Relations in South America

Author:: Augusto Rinaldi
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Using the soft balancing concept and a comparative methodology, I analyze the diplomatic strategies mobilized by Brazil towards the US in South America from 2003 to 2022. The empirical results suggest that in the last two decades, Brazil moved away from the role of “soft balancer” during Lula’s and Rousseff’s mandates (2003–2016) to a “tactical convergence” in Temer's (2016–2018) to “bandwagoning” in Bolsonaro's (2019–2022). The main drivers for these different strategies are domestic and regional changes. Approaching this thematic contributes to a better understanding of Brazilian regional priorities and abilities to deal with the US in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Competitive Balance, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

88. Astropolitics and USA-China’s New Geopolitical Rivalry Area

Author:: Seyedmohammad Seyedi Asl
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Space has always been a place for geopolitical competition, and concepts such as astropolitics have even emerged in the scientific world. However, in the last two decades, technological advances have led to an increase in interest in space activities and new global space competition involving many public and private organizations. In addition to political and commercial competition in the world, China and America have expanded the scope of their competition to somewhere outside the world, that is, outer space, and they are trying not to lag behind their competitors in this field. A new round of competition between China and the United States to return to space was formed, which was reminiscent of the space program competition between the United States and the former Soviet Union. The purpose of this research is to analyze the space competition between America and China from the perspective of space geopolitics, using the concept of Astropolitics. Therefore, this study illustrates the role of contemporary geopolitics in today’s space based on the dynamic nature of astropolitics, and assesses the emerging geopolitical competition behind the rise of international interest in space.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Space, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Astropolitics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

89. Hybrid Multilateralism: Greenpeace in the Global Climate Governance

Author:: Ninda Soraya, Ali Muhammad, and Sitti Zarina Binti Alimuddin
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The study seeks to explain the non-state actors' roles in international climate negotiations. The existence of the Paris Agreement in our view strengthens the hybrid multilateralism architecture that makes it possible encouraging non-state actors to take part in global climate governance, such as Greenpeace. Based on literature research, this study uses qualitative research approaches. In addition, we utilize secondary information relevant to the subjects covered in this research from academic publications and online news sources. From this research, we found that three main key points, authority, legitimacy, and effectiveness in hybrid multilateralism best explain Greenpeace involvement in international climate negotiations. Furthermore, by following certain indicators of non-governmental organizations’ influence, Greenpeace is seen to have succeeded in influencing the Kyoto Protocol yet lost its role in influencing the Paris Agreement upon the United States’ withdrawal under Trump’s administration.
Topic:: Climate Change, Multilateralism, Paris Agreement, Climate Governance, and Greenpeace
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

90. Starr Forum: The US and the World Under Trump: The First 100 Days

Author:: Juliette N. Kayyem and Kori Schake
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: The US and the World Under Trump: The First 100 Days: Wednesday, April 16th, 2025. Juliette Kayyem and Kori Schake analyzed President Trump’s first 100 days in office and what this means for our nation and the world. Speakers: Juliette Kayyem is the faculty chair of the Homeland Security and Security and Global Health Projects at Harvard University and the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. She also serves as a senior national security analyst for CNN where she has been described as CNN’s “go to” for disasters. A contributing writer to The Atlantic, Professor Kayyem has a weekly security segment on NPR’s Boston station WGBH. Her most recent book, "The Devil Never Sleeps: Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters," was described in a New Yorker profile as an “engagingly urgent blueprint for rethinking our approach to disaster preparedness and response.” She served as President Obama’s assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs at the Department of Homeland Security. Kori Schake leads the foreign and defense policy team at the American Enterprise Institute. She is the author of "Safe Passage: the Transition from British to American Hegemony," and a contributing writer at the Atlantic, War on the Rocks, and Bloomberg. Before joining AEI, Dr. Schake was the deputy director-general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. She has had a distinguished career in government, working at the US State Department, the US Department of Defense, and the National Security Council at the White House. She has also taught at Stanford, West Point, Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, National Defense University, and the University of Maryland. She has written additional books, including "America vs the West: Can the Liberal World Order Be Preserved?" and is coeditor, along with former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, of “Warriors & Citizens: American Views of Our Military.” Moderator: Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He conducts research on the political-economy of development, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. He studies the democratic politics of governing ethnically and racially diverse societies, including the challenges of public health, climate adaptation, and ensuring respect for human dignity. Lieberman is the author, most recently, of "Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid."
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Public Health, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

91. GR&P Seminar: US-China Science Cooperation and Chinese American Scientists in the Trump 2.0 Era

Author:: Yasheng Huang, Gang Chen, David Goldston, and Mihaela Papa
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Global Research & Policy Seminar: US-China Science Cooperation and Chinese American Scientists in the Trump 2.0 Era: Tuesday, February 11, 2025. As the new Trump administration shapes its China policies, how is the United States navigating scientific collaboration with China? What are the implications for Chinese American and China-focused scientists? Two Chinese American MIT faculty members and the Director of the MIT Washington Office shared their insights on the opportunities and challenges of advancing scientific progress in the context of an increasingly complex and contested US-China relationship. Speakers: Yasheng Huang, Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management, MIT Sloan; Faculty Director MIT-China Program Gang Chen, Carl Richard Soderberg Professor of Power Engineering, MechE; Director, Pappalardo Micro and Nano Engineering Laboratories David Goldston, Director, MIT Washington Office Moderator: Mihaela Papa, Director of Research and Principal Research Scientist, MIT Center for International Studies
Topic:: Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Donald Trump, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

92. Trump’s Alternate Reality in the Middle East

Author:: Hussein Ibish
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: With his recent foray into drastic measures to resolve the Israel-Palestine continuum, could there be a method to the madness of King Trump?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Real Estate, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

93. President Trump’s Policies in the Middle East

Author:: Raphael Cohen-Almagor
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The U.S. president’s pragmatic approach and his out-of-the-box bold ideas may bring a positive change to both Israel and the Palestinians provided they will be translated into action plans carefully and through sensitive communication with all concerned stakeholders
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

94. A Resurgent Trump Returns to a Turbulent Middle East

Author:: Paul Salem
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trump’s unpredictable yet forceful leadership is entering a region in flux, offering both challenges and opportunities for his second term
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

95. Donald Trump and the Art of Bending Reality

Author:: Gabriele Cosentino
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The gravity-defying political comeback of Donald Trump is the pinnacle of the chaotic career of an extreme risk taker with little concern for established norms. But his willingness to upend rules and bend reality to suit his vision might push U.S. and global politics to the breaking point
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Norms, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

96. Trump’s Return: What It Could Mean for Palestine and the Region

Author:: Ramzy Baroud
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the context of the Gaza war and other regional conflicts raises questions regarding his approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

97. Trump 2.0: Where Rhetoric Meets Reality

Author:: Diana Bartelli Carlin
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The new president has made big promises, but can he keep them?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Rhetoric
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

98. Round Two: Trump’s Foreign Policy Takes on New Challenges

Author:: William B. Quandt
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trump will have to manage the continuing conflict in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and the rising power of China as he navigates the beginning of his second term
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Ukraine, Middle East, and United States of America

99. American Netizens Worry For the Future of TikTok

Author:: Sydney Wise
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The temporary banning of TikTok in the United States in January prompted concern over the politicization of tech platforms. The two likeliest paths forward for TikTok represent alternate visions of the relationship between Big Tech and government
Topic:: Science and Technology, Social Media, TikTok, and Politicization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

100. Longer Sticks and Shorter Carrots: How the U.S. is Changing its Engagement in MENA

Author:: Amr Adly
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The United States’ approach to achieving international hegemony is shifting away from trade and investments back toward bombs and missiles
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Investment, Trade, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS