Political Geography: United States of America / Publication Year: within 3 Years and within 10 Years

1. Empire Salon | William Smith | Oct 14 2020

Author:: William Smith
Publication Date:: 12-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: William Smith, a distinguished former student of Committee Board member Claes Ryn, has written an insightful book on the realistic and restrained foreign policy tradition of the United States. Smith highlights the great Harvard scholar, Irving Babbitt, with his clear understanding of the crooked timber of man -- especially when acting collectively -- which reduces moral inhibitions against violence. James Madison explained in Federalist 55, “Had every Athenian citizen been a Socrates; every Athenian assembly would still have been a mob.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Imperialism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2. UNRWA Funding is Burdened with Conditionality

Author:: Anne Irfan
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The UN agency’s essential humanitarian role lies in the balance thanks to the political contingencies of its donors.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Donors, Funding, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

3. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States

Author:: Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
Topic:: NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

4. Assad’s Fall Is an Opportunity for a U.S. Win Over China

Author:: Grant Rumley
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Beijing consistently supported the regime’s brutal repressive measures, so cozying up to the rebel-led transition government may be more difficult than it expects. In the months since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, China has seized on the conflict to criticize not only Israel but by extension the U.S. and its position in the region. For years, Chinese diplomats had been careful to toe a centrist line in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calibrating their language to avoid offending either side too greatly. Yet as the conflict has dragged on the past year, and as the region’s criticisms of the U.S. have risen, Beijing sensed an opportunity to diminish the U.S. standing while boosting its own. Chinese officials have regularly omitted mention of Hamas’s atrocities while blasting Israel and the U.S. for its support. Now, however, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has presented the U.S. with a similar opportunity...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, Bashar al-Assad, 2023 Gaza War, and Transitional Government
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

5. In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State

Author:: Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns. Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria would be a devastating setback and damage American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure. Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. And despite political nominees’ reassurances that the United States is unlikely to abandon its partners there, Trump himself has been more ambivalent...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islamic State, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

6. Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for Israel, Hamas, and U.S. Policy

Author:: Dennis Ross, Matthew Levitt, and Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Former Israeli and U.S. officials discuss the deal’s timing, provisions, and near-term prospects, outlining the Trump administration’s practical options for advancing peace in Gaza and beyond.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

7. Barbara A. Leaf on US Leadership and Engagement in the Middle East

Author:: Brian Katulis and Barbara A. Leaf
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Middle East Focus Presents: ’Taking the Edge Off the Middle East’ with Brian Katulis. A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today - hosted by MEI’s Senior Fellow Brian Katulis. Barbara A. Leaf is a seasoned diplomat and expert on the Middle East, having served as the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and held key positions in US embassies across the region. In this episode, Barbara joins Brian to discuss the array of “black swan” events currently unfolding in the Middle East, and how the second Trump administration may respond to these challenges. They discuss the broader implications of these developments for US foreign policy, national security, and regional stability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Leadership, Engagement, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

8. Costly Incrementalism: U.S. PKK Policy and Relations with Türkiye

Author:: Richard Outzen
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: U.S. policy towards the PKK, a designated Foreign Terror Organization, has varied significantly over four decades, reflecting a clear periodization based on pragmatic policy interests and the interplay of U.S. actions and Turkish responses. Washington has over time supported Turkish counter-PKK actions without direct involvement; actively supported Turkish counter-PKK efforts; tolerated or tacitly supported PKK activities; and directly instrumentalized and supported the PKK in Syria and regionally. Washington’s evolving stance toward the PKK coincided with the rise of Al Qaeda (AQ) and its offshoot, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as the focus of U.S. Middle East policy. The evolution reflected an incremental approach that subordinated U.S.-Turkish relations and other regional problems to the campaign against AQ/IS. Bilateral cooperation suffered as incrementalism, low trust, and transactionalism came to characterize the relationship. This paper examines the history, current dynamics, and possible future trajectory of U.S. PKK policy as a problem in U.S. Turkish bilateral relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

9. The Alliance in the Storm: Geopolitical Representation of the United States in the Turkish Parliament during Détente

Author:: Ayşe Ömür Atmaca
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article analyzes how the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political discourse changed during the 1960s and 1970s in the context of deep crises between the two countries, such as the Cyprus question, the opium issue, and the US arms embargo on Türkiye. Within the framework of critical geopolitical theory, it uses the concept of “geopolitical representation.” It examines the changes in the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political life through practical geopolitics. To this end, it evaluates the debates, speeches, and correspondence made by the representatives of the ruling and opposition parties and members of the government in the Turkish Grand National Assembly between 1964 and 1979, within the context of the crises in Turkish-American relations, particularly within the foreign policy framework. It is argued that while the alliance between Türkiye and the United States and Türkiye’s membership in NATO were seen as important symbols of Türkiye’s sovereignty and enjoyed unwavering support in the 1950s, tensions with the US, Türkiye’s “strategic partner,” in the 1960s and 1970s led to notable shifts in the Turkish parliament’s narrative. As a pioneer of anti-NATO and anti-US rhetoric, the Workers’ Party of Türkiye (TİP) played a prominent role in shaping parliamentary discussions.
Topic:: History, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Arms Embargo, and Detente
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, Cyprus, and United States of America

10. Challenging Friends: Türkiye-U.S. Relations

Author:: Lenore G. Martin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article analyzes the underlying wellsprings for the major strains that disrupt the U.S. - Türkiye relationship. These strains arise from the U.S. support of the PYD/YPG/YPJ in Northern Syria as boots on the ground against ISIL; Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system; Türkiye’s energy imports from Russia and Iran; the U.S. refusal to extradite Fetullah Gülen; and Washington’s complaints about the AKP government’s anti-democratic tendencies. This article analyzes why and how some of these issues have evoked strong ire and distrust on both sides and others much less so by employing a paradigm based on five integrated variables: Türkiye’s military and economic capabilities; the availability of its natural resources, particularly energy; as well as threats to the legitimacy of the AKP regime and to the society’s ethnic and religious cohesion. Utilizing the paradigm, the article proposes measures that will increase the opportunities to build a firmer partnership between the U.S. and Türkiye.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, YPG, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

11. A Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Turkish Public Opinion towards the United States

Author:: Efe Tokdemir, Melike Metintaş, and Seçkin Köstem
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Türkiye - United States relations have a multifaceted character and have spanned a long period, witnessing ups and downs throughout their historical trajectory. Türkiye’s relations with and foreign policy towards the US have been closely monitored by the public, and diverse perspectives towards the US have emerged within Turkish public opinion over time. This paper investigates the various factors that affect Turkish public opinion towards the US. Previous studies have generally examined public opinion through the demand side, exploring what features of the public predict their behavior towards other countries. In this research, we examine what exactly it is about the US that the public likes or dislikes. The research question of this article is: What are the determinants of the variation in individuals’ foreign policy attitudes towards the US in Türkiye? By answering this question through survey data conducted in 2021, we aim to present the economic, security-related, and political reasons behind the Turkish public’s positive and negative attitudes toward the US. The findings demonstrate that individuals are influenced by various dimensions pertaining to the US and its relations with Türkiye. The respondents’ demographic characteristics and political and foreign policy attitudes have resulted in disparate opinions regarding these multiple dimensions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

12. Where is the Anchor? Explaining the Endurance of the American-Turkish Partnership, 1927-2024

Author:: Onur Erpul and Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Once considered a model partnership, the American-Turkish relationship now elicits ambivalence among scholars and policymakers, calling into question the fundamental interests and assumptions that once undergirded the relationship. Critics attribute the negative trends in the relationship to geostrategic and value-based incompatibilities, but relatively few have examined both factors longitudinally across the entire relationship. This paper does not aim to provide a grand theory of American-Turkish relations. Instead, its goal is to develop a framework illustrating the vital role that strategic, ideational, and domestic political factors have played in shaping macro-level outcomes in the partnership’s cohesion at various junctures. Overall, our paper identifies the positive role of foreign policy bureaucratic elites on both sides acting as an “invisible hand” providing an anchor for the relationship even in the absence of other commonalities. Yet, we also observe the weakening of this hand in recent times as both countries become domestically transformed.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and Elites
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

13. The Deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish Foreign Policy: Why Societal Ties Are an Anchor in Bilateral Relations

Author:: Andrew O'Donohue
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This paper challenges two prevailing narratives about U.S.-Turkey relations: first, that international and individual-level factors are responsible for volatility in the relationship and second, that bilateral relations are uniformly bleak. In contrast to these perspectives, this paper proposes a domestic and institutional explanation for the rising volatility of U.S.-Turkey relations and conceptualizes societal ties as an anchor in the bilateral relationship. This paper advances two inter-related arguments. First, I argue that a key driver of volatility in U.S.-Turkey relations since 2016 is the deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish foreign policymaking. In the United States, the root cause of deinstitutionalization is intensifying polarization over foreign policy, fueled by the rise of populism. In Turkey, by contrast, foreign policy has deinstitutionalized through personalization: the steady concentration of decision-making power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Second, against this backdrop of deinstitutionalization, I show that societal ties between the United States and Turkey provide a uniquely stable and enduring area of bilateral cooperation. I provide evidence for this argument in two key domains: 1) civil society and media and 2) higher education. These societal linkages, I argue, are often resilient precisely because they are disconnected from domestic politics and foreign policy. These societal ties should thus be understood not as agents that can reshape bilateral relations but as anchors that prevent the two nations from drifting apart.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, Media, Higher Education, Bureaucracy, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

14. Turkey and the US in the Middle East: A Case for Alliance Change

Author:: Meliha Benli Altunisik
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Turkey-US relations in the Middle East have evolved significantly in recent years. Initially based on shared threat perceptions and strategic outlooks during the Cold War, the alignment became characterized by divergences on some issues after the Gulf War in 1991. Their relationship in the Middle East has even become hostile in recent years. Turkey’s increased regional aspirations and evolving threat perceptions in the Middle East, framed within an ontological security narrative, have strained bilateral ties. This shift is compounded by divergent worldviews influenced by domestic political changes in both countries. Despite these challenges, the alliance persists within NATO, albeit with complexities arising from the interplay of external pressures and internal dynamics. This article explores these dynamics using a Neoclassical Realist framework to explain how Ankara’s evolving threat perceptions and ontological security concerns have reshaped Turkey-US relations in the Middle East amid changing global and regional contexts.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Neoclassical Realism, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

15. Translating Trump’s Disruptive Diplomacy into a New Reality in Gaza

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the future of Gaza – which include the eviction of its population, American governance, the creation of a “Middle Eastern Riviera,” and an ultimatum demanding the release of all hostages – highlights two key issues on which Trump’s positions appear self-contradictory. The call for the release of all hostages (and hence perhaps an end to the war) seems at odds with the administration’s firmly held view that Hamas must no longer be the ruling power in Gaza. At the same time, the call for Palestinians to leave Gaza contradicts the traditional commitment to America’s Arab friends (and clients). The stability of the regimes in Egypt and Jordan, if pushed to take the Gazans and punished for their refusal, could be endangered – despite King Abdullah’s efforts to mollify Trump during his visit to Washington. The future of their peace treaties with Israel would also be threatened. The Saudis too have responded abruptly, reiterating their support for Palestinian demands. Consequently, the region has been thrust into a state of crisis.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, 2023 Gaza War, and Hostages
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

16. Christian Nationalism Across All 50 States: Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In 2024, PRRI released a groundbreaking national survey that provided for the first time the ability to estimate support for Christian nationalism in all 50 states. Building on that work throughout 2024, PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to continue monitoring the spread of support for Christian nationalism and the factors driving such views.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Survey, Partisanship, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

17. LGBTQ Rights Across All 50 States: Key Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In 2024, PRRI interviewed over 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to provide a detailed analysis of the demographic, political, and religious characteristics of LGBTQ Americans. The report also examines public attitudes on LGBTQ rights across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, focusing on support for nondiscrimination protections, opposition to religiously based service refusals, and support for same-sex marriage. Additionally, new survey questions explore views on transgender-related policies, including restrictions on gender-affirming care for minors and ID laws requiring birth-assigned sex.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Domestic Politics, LGBT+, and Survey
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

18. Factsheet: Elon Musk

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Elon Musk is a billionaire entrepreneur and the CEO or top executive of multiple high-profile companies, including X (formerly Twitter), Tesla and SpaceX. He has a documented history of amplifying anti-Muslim tropes, supporting individuals and organizations that promote Islamophobia, and making statements that minimize or dismiss concerns about anti-Muslim racism. His actions and influence have contributed to the normalization of Islamophobic rhetoric in public discourse. In 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Musk to lead the newly-created Department of Government Efficiency.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Billionaires, and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

19. Factsheet: Tom Trento

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Tom Trento is an American conservative activist who has a history of making anti-Muslim statements, including promoting a narrative that constructs Islam as a major threat to America. He is the founder and executive director of The United West, described by the Southern Poverty Law Center as an organization “stoking anti-Muslim hate for over a decade.”
Topic:: Conservatism, Islamophobia, Activism, Right-Wing Politics, and Tom Trento
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

20. Factsheet: Pete Hegseth

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Pete Hegseth is a former Fox News political commentator, author, and former Army National Guard officer who served in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He has tattoos that are associated with white nationalism and has a history of making Islamophobic statements. Hegseth has also been accused of sexual assault and has had several incidences of alleged sexist behavior. In 2025, Hegseth was confirmed as the next Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Military, Pete Hegseth, and White Nationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

21. Factsheet: Randy Fine

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Randy Fine is an American Republican politician and currently serves as a Senator for the Florida state government. Before joining politics, he served as a gambling industry executive. Fine has been described as an “unhinged bigot,” “controversial,” “divisive,” and “abrasive.” He has a history of making anti-Muslim, anti-Palestinian, and racist comments, and has threatened two Muslim women members of Congress. In 2024, Fine announced he would be running for the US Congress and was endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Topic:: Politics, Islamophobia, Republican Party, and Randy Fine
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

22. The US TikTok Ban, the RedNote Moment and China

Author:: Aurelio Insisa
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 23 April 2024, the US Senate passed a bill forcing the Chinese company ByteDance to choose between divesting from its prized social platform TikTok, one of the dominant apps among Americans aged 18-29,[1] or accepting its ban on US soil. Following ByteDance’s refusal to divest, the US Supreme Court upheld the ban on 17 January 2025. The ban on TikTok rested on national security grounds. TikTok is technically a limited liability corporation registered in Delaware and with headquarters in Singapore and Los Angeles. Yet, its parent company ByteDance, while incorporated in the Cayman Islands, is based in Beijing and subject to a domestic legal framework legally requiring it to “provide assistance” to the Chinese government, including, crucially, giving up the data of TikTok users.[2] Further highlighting the limited autonomy of the company vis-à-vis Chinese authorities, “cells” of the Chinese Communist Party have been embedded within the structures of the company since 2017.[3] In short, ByteDance cannot guarantee that the personal data of its users could be kept at arm’s length from Beijing. While the Senate’s bill enjoyed bipartisan support, then President-elect Donald J. Trump publicly stated that he would not enforce the ban. Throughout the 2024 electoral campaign, Trump had announced – in contrast with most of the Republican Party members of Congress – his opposition to the bill, acknowledging how the platform had been a relevant tool for re-election.[4] On 19 January, Trump announced that he would consider imposing a 90-day delay of the ban and search for a joint-venture between ByteDance and a US company.[5] Two days later, he suggested the possibility that either Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla, owner of X, and Administrator of the Department of Government Efficiency in the new administration), or Larry Ellison (chairman of Oracle) would buy the social media platform.[6]
Topic:: Social Media, Digital Policy, and TikTok
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

23. Trump First, America Second

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In his inaugural address to a nation half-enthusiastic and half-stunned still by the most extraordinary political comeback in US history, Donald Trump portrayed himself as the saviour of the nation, chosen by God Himself to finally turn America First from slogan to reality and truly ‘make America great again’.[1] The mixture of politics, ideology and megalomaniac eschatology is especially interesting because Trump has tied the fate of the nation to his personal fortunes like no other president before him. As he puts it, the realisation of America First is inextricably linked to his personal power.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ideology, Far Right, Donald Trump, and Nativism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

24. A Tough Opponent for Trump: Inflation

Author:: Matteo Bursi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: According to several pre-election polls, the economy was perceived by many US voters as the key topic in deciding whether to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2024 presidential elections.[1] During Joe Biden’s administration, the US GDP grew steadily and unemployment reached very low levels. Nevertheless, for the first time since 2004, the Democratic Party lost the presidency, the popular vote, the House of Representatives and the Senate. This seemingly paradoxical situation, according to some commentators, finds an explanation in the issue of inflation.[2] From this perspective, a significant number of Americans reportedly voted for Donald Trump due to the sharp price increases experienced during the past four years, blaming the outgoing Democratic administration for failing to sufficiently protect the purchasing power of US citizens and businesses. During and after the election campaign, the tycoon has claimed that he can curb inflation, emphasising his plan to intensify the exploitation of domestic energy resources. This proposal – covered by one of the many executive orders signed by Trump upon taking office – could help contain price increases but is unlikely to be a definitive solution. Likewise, its effectiveness could be largely offset by inflationary pressures arising from other policies that the Republican politician has promised to implement.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Economic Policy, Inflation, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

25. Trump’s Call with Putin Raises Great Concerns, Few Hopes

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: US President Donald Trump’s phone call with Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin, especially when read in combination with Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s re-definition of US Europe policy, casts a long shadow. There are good reasons to be more concerned than hopeful about the peace deal that seems to be taking shape in the minds of the US Administration. At the same time, there are elements suggesting a less pessimistic assessment of the looming negotiations. Trump’s call with Putin has made a big splash but has not yet pierced Ukraine’s armour.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

26. Another Transatlanticism Is Possible: Europe’s Moment in Latin America amid Trump’s Return

Author:: Raffaele Piras
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited his hallmark “America First” agenda, with significant consequences for Latin America. During his inaugural address, Trump emphasised the need to regain US control of the Panama Canal, framing it as a cornerstone of national security amidst heightened competition with China.[1] This rhetoric marks the continuation of a policy approach that relies on coercion and transactional diplomacy to achieve US objectives. While Trump’s focus on Latin America will undoubtedly reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics, it also presents a strategic opportunity for the European Union to strengthen its role as a stabilising force and reliable partner.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

27. Giorgia Meloni’s Italy between Trump and Europe: Fateful Choices Ahead

Author:: Maria Luisa Fantappiè, Leo Goretti, and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The priority should be “preventing divisions within the West and the transatlantic alliance”, while “rooting for” this or that side would not be helpful: it is thus that Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni commented on the spat in the Oval Office between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump,[1] and by extension, between Washington and Europe. In the aftermath of the clash, while most European leaders openly supported Zelensky, Meloni’s reticence was notable. The choice was tough. Siding with Zelensky would jeopardise Meloni’s aspiration to become the go-to EU leader for Washington. And yet, siding with Trump would lay bare a lack of commitment to Europe and especially the defence of Ukraine, for which Meloni had previously shown constant support. At the ensuing London Summit on Ukraine, Meloni couldn’t hide her discomfort.[2] The resolve of European leaders – spearheaded by the French president Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer – in advocating for a strategic Europe seemed to shelve Meloni’s carefully crafted plan to leverage her bilateral ties with the Trump administration to bolster her role in Europe – even at the cost of fragmenting its unity. Meanwhile, at home, her junior coalition partner Matteo Salvini openly sided with Trump, in an attempt to present himself as an alternative to Meloni and to win consensus among that sizable chunk of the Italian public opinion who wants to see an end to the war in Ukraine.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, Russia-Ukraine War, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:: Europe, Italy, and United States of America

28. Trump’s Exit from the Paris Agreement: An Opportunity for the EU to Back South Africa’s Climate Leadership

Author:: Bongiwe Ngcobo-Mphahlele and Darlington Tshuma
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In his address to the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos in January 2025,[1] South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa – who currently chairs the G20, the first African leader to do so – outlined a bold and assertive agenda centred on global cooperation, inclusive growth and sustainable development. His address included a renewed call for transparency in the allocation of climate resources and the reform of the global financial architecture that has long been criticised as too rigid to support long-term sustainable development in the Global South.[2]
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Europe, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

29. NATO-Europe-US Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific: Challenging Times Ahead

Author:: Gabriele Abbondanza
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the Indo-Pacific gradually becomes the world’s geopolitical and geoeconomic epicentre, states and regional organisations are progressively pivoting to it. Due to a combination of drivers – chiefly US pressure, economic opportunities, strategic interests and politico-normative priorities – European and Indo-Pacific actors have increased cooperation with Washington and NATO in the region. However, the second Trump administration looks considerably less aligned with the conventional pillars of US foreign policy. In light of the unfolding fracture between the US and its European allies over Ukraine, what lies ahead for NATO-Europe-US cooperation in the Indo-Pacific?
Topic:: NATO, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

30. A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance

Author:: Julia Bello-Schunemann
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Foreign aid has never been the solution to Nigeria’s multiple development challenges. However, the halt to US development assistance1 and the de facto shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will cause additional hardship for Nigeria’s most vulnerable. Modelling based on the International Futures model (IFs)2 , a forecasting platform housed at the University of Denver, suggests that the decision could push approximately 700 000 additional Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2030. The health sector is disproportionately affected by the freeze as it depends excessively on US aid, primarily for the fight against HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases. Nigeria is one of 10 countries globally that are most reliant on US funding3 for HIV medicines. The US policy shift is a wake-up call for the Tinubu administration to rise to the task of mobilising domestic funds to provide essential services to the population.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, USAID, and Health Sector
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, Nigeria, and United States of America

31. Public Debt and the Income Share of the Top 1% in the US, 1960-2019

Author:: Aggela Papadopoulou
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: This study theorizes the relationship between sovereign debt and income inequality and shows that increases in public indebtedness are robustly associated with increases in the income share of the top one percent in the US since the 1960s. First, the paper outlines the mechanisms through which public debt is linked to the top one percent income share, via interest payments and capital gains from bond trading. Subsequently, it scrutinizes the evolution of public debt and the income share of the top one percent in the US, in parallel with the historical development of political and economic institutions. Building on the historical analysis, it demonstrates econometrically that interest payments and total returns on domestic and foreign public debt are positively associated with the income share of the top one percent in the US for the period 1960 to 2019.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Public Debt, and Top One Percent
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

32. Black Intergenerational Mobility, Libertarian Capitalism, and Authoritarian Government, 1877–1941: A Case Study

Author:: Patrick L. Mason
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: There are persistent multigenerational Black-white gaps in occupational attainment. These racial differences in intergenerational mobility are not caused by differences in family values and behavior (Mason, 2007). For three decades, I have gathered evidence on my family’s intergenerational transition from enslavement to present social and economic circumstances. Charles and Susan Rollins were 32 and 29 years-old, respectively, as enslavement ended in 1865. During Reconstruction, they accumulated wealth, established a successful dairy and other farming, helped found a church and religious organizations, helped found multiple civic organizations, served on boards affiliated with the local university and high school, were elected to County and State public office, had savings and bank accounts for the entire family, and were leaders among an extensive social network. Jim Crow in the South and anti-black racism in the north stymied upward mobility for the Rollins family for the three generations after Charles and Susan, despite the fact that their descendants obtained greater education than their ancestors, displayed a willingness to relocate 100s of miles away from their home, possessed a culture of achievement (hard work, future orientation, married couple families, etc.), were blessed with exceptional social capital, and, perhaps, the relative advantage of being mulattoes.
Topic:: History, Authoritarianism, Capital, Libertarianism, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

33. Fracking or No Fracking? How a Green Transition Can Work for Workers

Author:: Robert Pollin and Jeannette Wicks-Lim
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Throughout the 2024 U.S. Presidential campaign, the only climate-related issue to achieve prominence was the question of whether to ban fracking operations in the United States. Donald Trump is a long-time climate denier, and therefore had no qualms in supporting fracking and all other techniques for extracting fossil fuels from the ground. By contrast, Kamala Harris had supported a nationwide ban on fracking during her 2019 presidential campaign. This was due to the severe negative environmental and public health impacts of this natural gas extraction technique and because burning natural gas to produce energy generates CO2 emissions that cause climate change. But Harris opposed a fracking ban in 2024 on the assumption that the ban would impose major costs to the economy of Pennsylvania, which has the second-largest fracking operations among U.S. states, after Texas only. Such negative economic outcomes in Pennsylvania would indeed result if fracking were banned in the U.S. and no large-scale alternative economic activities were introduced into Pennsylvania’s economy. But banning fracking must be understood as one component of a much larger program to advance a viable climate stabilization program, in Pennsylvania, and everywhere else. We find that building a clean energy-dominant infrastructure in Pennsylvania—focused on investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources—will generate approximately 160,000 jobs in the state. Meanwhile, phasing down fracking and all other fossil fuel activities by 50 percent between 2026 – 35 will entail job losses in the range of 1,700 per year within the state. We argue that these 1,700 displaced fossil fuel workers should receive just transition policies that include pension, employment and income guarantees, in addition to, as needed, retraining and relocation support. We estimate that such a just transition program for these workers will cost in the range of $240 million per year. This amounts to about 0.02 percent of Pennsylvania’s current GDP. Thus, we show how, between 2026 – 2035, Pennsylvania could phase out 50 percent of all its fossil fuel production activities—including fracking operations—while also providing generous support for workers to transition out of their fossil fuel industry jobs and into activities that both raise public health and environmental standards in the state and contribute toward a viable global climate stabilization project.
Topic:: Climate Change, Elections, Green Transition, and Fracking
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34. Employment in Child Care and Early Education in the U.S. 2000-2021

Author:: Aritra Basu and Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Accurate assessment of trends in the availability and affordability of childcare services in the U.S. hinges on accurate assessment of a paid labor force that is difficult to precisely measure, because it spans a wide range of informal and formal institutional arrangements. This paper calls attention to these measurement problems and traces significant changes in the composition of child care and early education employment from 2000 to 2021 based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS). It shows that employment in the Child Day Care Services industry has become an increasingly poor measure of the number of those employed in Child Care and Preschool/Kindergarten occupations, due to increased provision in both Private Household Services and Elementary and Secondary Education industries. Comparisons of worker characteristics and median annual earnings across occupations and industries highlight the effects of institutional context, including differences in the composition of demand for paid care services. Consideration of these issues points to the need for specific improvements in labor force survey design.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Survey, and Child Care
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

35. KGB Operations against the USA and Canada in Soviet Ukraine, 1953-1991

Author:: Nebahat Akkoç
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Professor Zhuk’s “KGB Operations against the USA and Canada in Soviet Ukraine, 1953- 1991” focuses on the post-Stalin Cold War period, when Soviet Ukraine was gradually opened to American and Canadian visitors and combines counter-intelligence documents in the 1st (and 16th) fund of Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) archive with the Committee for State Security’s (KGB) official correspondence and reports to the political leadership of Soviet Ukraine.
Topic:: Cold War, History, Book Review, and KGB
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

36. The Tech Revolution and Irregular Warfare: Leveraging Commercial Innovation for Great Power Competition

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The U.S. government has not adequately leveraged the commercial sector to conduct irregular warfare against China, Russia, Iran, and other competitors because of significant risk aversion, slow and burdensome contracting and acquisitions processes, and a failure to adequately understand technological advances. There is an urgent need to rethink how the United States works with the commercial sector in such areas as battlefield awareness, placement and access, next-generation intelligence, unmanned and autonomous systems, influence operations, and precision effects.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, Competition, and Irregular Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, and United States of America

37. Fueling the Future: Recommendations for Strengthening U.S. Uranium Security

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Uranium is a crucial mineral for energy and national security—it fuels the nuclear energy that underpins today’s economy and is key to propelling future growth to meet the surge in energy demand from artificial intelligence. However, supply chain vulnerabilities and dependencies on foreign adversaries challenge U.S. leadership in the sector and create national and energy security risks. Russia and China are rapidly expanding their offtake of mined uranium from international partners, uranium enrichment capabilities, and nuclear infrastructure. To strengthen uranium and nuclear fuel supply chains, the United States must work with allies, implement conducive trade and tariff policies, and invest in both domestic enrichment capacity and uranium ore production abroad.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Economic Security, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Russia, Central Asia, North America, and United States of America

38. Mining for Defense: Unlocking the Potential for U.S.-Canada Collaboration on Critical Minerals

Author:: Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Henry Ziemer, and Alejandra Toro
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: China’s near monopolistic control of many critical minerals, which are essential for both for consumer products and defense production, represents an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States at a time of heightened geopolitical tension. Canada, which already supplies the United States with large quantities of certain essential metals, is well positioned as an alternative source for many of the critical minerals controlled by China, thus contributing to North American national and economic security. Bolstering cooperation on critical minerals for the defense industry furthermore offers a way for both countries to find common ground amid frustrations surrounding trade and security.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Mining, Collaboration, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

39. Russia’s Shadow War Against the West

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Russia is conducting an escalating and violent campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and U.S. targets in Europe led by Russian military intelligence (the GRU), according to a new CSIS database of Russian activity. The number of Russian attacks nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024. Russia’s primary targets have included transportation, government, critical infrastructure, and industry, and its main weapons and tactics have included explosives, blunt or edged instruments (such as anchors), and electronic attack. Despite the increase in Russian attacks, Western countries have not developed an effective strategy to counter these attacks.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

40. Foreign Malign Influence Targeting U.S. and Allied Corporations

Author:: Daniel Byman
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: U.S. corporations are regular targets of foreign governments seeking to undermine the United States. These hostile states have both commercial and strategic motives, and they use disinformation, malinformation, and artificial promotion to tarnish the reputations of U.S. companies. U.S. corporations and the U.S. government should take steps to mitigate this threat, including improving corporate counterintelligence, building networks of advocates for use in crisis situations, and sharing more information on the scope and scale of the problem.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, Geopolitics, Corporations, and Irregular Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

41. Building Critical Minerals Cooperation Between the United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is one of the world’s most resource-rich countries, and in 2024, it attracted the largest volume of mineral exploration investment in Africa. Enhancing U.S.-DRC cooperation is critical to counterbalance China’s dominance. The United States has historically underinvested in commercial diplomacy in the DRC, while China has established control over key mines through state-backed financing and infrastructure-for-resources deals. This brief answers two questions: First, how can the U.S. government utilize its resources to maximize impact in this sector? And second, what reforms can the DRC government implement to attract investment? Building the bilateral minerals partnership will require a suite of bilateral diplomatic, financial, and legislative reforms.
Topic:: Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, United States of America, and Democratic Republic of Congo

42. Improving the Efficiency of NRC Power Reactor Licensing: Environmental Reviews

Author:: Matt Bowen and Rama T. Ponangi
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Achieving net-zero emissions in the United States by mid-century requires the rapid buildout of low-carbon energy infrastructure. One challenge to this rapid buildout is the environmental reviews required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which are part of federal approval processes for new energy projects. This process has increasingly caused significant delays and added costs, and the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) of 2023 was passed by Congress in part to address these issues through amendments to NEPA that impose timelines on environmental reviews. For nuclear power, a low-carbon energy source that has a role in many US net-zero scenarios, environmental reviews are conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as part of its reactor licensing process. Because this process has at times been lengthy and costly, Congress passed the 2024 ADVANCE Act in part to require the NRC to implement its responsibilities under NEPA more efficiently. During the 2000s and 2010s, most of the environmental impact statements (EISs) these reviews produced would not have complied with NEPA’s new FRA timeline (two years or fewer) and page limit (150, or in extraordinary cases 300). More recent NRC environmental reviews for test reactor deployments have been somewhat quicker and had shorter review documents, perhaps a recognition by the agency that the efficiency of this process needed improvement. This report, part of a series of publications on nuclear licensing reform at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, focuses on how the NRC can fulfill the new legal mandates on time and page limits for environmental reviews and in general improve the efficiency of these reviews. The report demonstrates that earlier (1970s–80s) environmental reviews for nuclear power reactors licensed under the 10 CFR 50 licensing pathway took less time and generated shorter review documents than those conducted under 10 CFR 52 during the 2000s and 2010s. The latter reviews—all of which were for large light water reactor projects—also utilized substantial NRC resources, thereby incurring significant costs to the applicants. None of these reviews found that the reactor projects were expected to create what the NRC calls “large adverse” environmental impacts, which could destabilize environmental resources. Although some “moderate adverse” impacts were identified, they typically came from unavoidable elements such as new transmission lines and traffic that would result from any large construction project. And beneficial impacts always came in the form of jobs and taxes. At the very least, these findings raise questions about the allocation of time and resources to various aspects of the NRC’s environmental review.
Topic:: Environment, Regulation, Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Permitting
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

43. Collateral Effects of the Tariff War on ASEAN Food Security

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Kayven Tan
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The United States and China are locked in a cycle of escalating tariffs, with likely knock-on impacts on global food supplies and prices. In response to increases in tariff rates imposed by the US on China’s exports, China hit back with additional tariffs on US$21 billion worth of US agricultural products in March 2025. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs will mean an additional 10 per cent tariff on soybeans, sorghum, beef, pork, aquatic and dairy products, fruits, and vegetables, and an additional 15 per cent tariff on wheat, corn, maize, and chicken from the US. Given the tense words exchanged by leaders and officials on both sides in recent days, neither side appears ready to back down from these trade measures. The food security concern for ASEAN states is whether the trade war will impact the supply and prices of food in a region where 37 per cent, or 251 million people, cannot afford a healthy diet. Many Asian states rely heavily on imports for their food. Wheat is used in household staples such as noodles and bread, while corn and soybeans are used for food and livestock feed.
Topic:: Food Security, Tariffs, Trade Wars, ASEAN, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

44. California Wildfires and Planetary Health

Author:: Pey Peili
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The California wildfires are an environmental disaster, but they also point to a deeper set of challenges, not only for the United States of America but for the global community. Such wildfires, which are ever-increasing in frequency and scale due to the impact of climate change, result in structural damage and long-term health risks that disproportionately affect vulnerable communities and are a costly burden to the state. A planetary health approach highlights the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the climate-environment-health interface in managing the risk and incidence of wildfires.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Natural Disasters, and Wildfires
Political Geography:: California, North America, and United States of America

45. Trump Takes on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s actions and announcements to date regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are reversing the decisions of previous administrations and strengthening Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position. At the same time, they threaten the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The deliberately ambiguous statements about the resolution of the crisis seem gauged to increase pressure on regional states and European partners.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

46. China Building Up BRICS as Important Foreign Policy Tool

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: BRICS is useful for China in its rivalry with the U.S., mainly as a tool to influence developing countries. It is also an important element of strategic cooperation with Russia and a platform for dialogue with India. China does not care about BRICS integration, instead it wants to consolidate the group’s participants to further China’s goals.. The EU’s response to this should include effective support for developing countries and a subjective approach to their demands for global governance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, BRICS, Rivalry, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

47. The U.S. Pursues Increasingly Aggressive Policy towards Latin America

Author:: Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to rebuild U.S. influence in Latin America. It is trying to convince the countries of the region that cooperation with the United States will bring development and increased security to the Americas. For the time being, however, this approach mainly serves U.S. security interests, in particular combating irregular migration, organised crime and drug trafficking, and reducing China’s influence. The current administration’s threats, inconsistent positions, and expansionist drive will deepen the distrust of the U.S. and antagonise important Latin American partners.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

48. U.S. Interest in Greenland Reflects the Ongoing Competition in the Arctic

Author:: Kinga Dudzińska and Paweł Markiewicz
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested his intention to attach Greenland to the U.S., a move that has met with opposition from the Greenlandic and Danish governments. The pressure from the U.S. is one manifestation of its aspirations to strengthen its position in the North Atlantic, both because of the strategic importance of the island and the growing international rivalries in the Arctic. The situation will require greater EU and NATO involvement in the High North, as well as consideration of this perspective by countries outside the region, such as Poland.
Topic:: NATO, European Union, Donald Trump, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Greenland, Arctic, and United States of America

49. Securing a development-friendly US trade policy: the urgent need for an AGOA revamp

Author:: Wolfgang Britz, Zoryana Olekseyuk, and Tim Vogel
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In times of heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, it is increasingly vital to secure a development-friendly approach toward African countries. They are among the most vulnerable to climate change, conflicts and pandemics, yet are also gaining geo-economic significance. Given the expiry of the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in 2020 and the upcoming expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in September 2025, Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries urge policymakers to timely reauthorise and upgrade the non-reciprocal trade programme to improve market access to the US and ensure long-term support for sustainable development across the African continent. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 was introduced to Congress with bipartisan support, the election of Donald Trump and his “America First” approach have increased doubts about a swift extension of AGOA. This policy brief examines the potential effects of the expirations of GSP and AGOA using a multi-region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. By simulating the shift from duty-free to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment, we find the following: All in all, aggregated effects over all countries are rather muted while some specific countries face strong losses. Whereas bilateral exports of AGOA-eligible countries to the US decline by 3.7%, their total exports fall by only 0.1%, with real GDP remaining almost unaffected. Looking more closely, specific SSA countries would face high bilateral losses: The most substantial reduction of exports to the US occurs in Lesotho (-35%), Malawi (-25%) and Kenya (-16%), while welfare decline is the highest in Lesotho and Mauritius. The most affected sectors are sugar, wearing apparel, leather, dairy products, and beverages and tobacco. The limited aggregate effects of a loss in trade preferences are mainly driven by relatively weak ties of SSA to the US and rather low US MFN tariff rates. This highlights the limited effectiveness of the AGOA preference scheme, indicating that its renewal should go hand in hand with a comprehensive modernisation of the programme. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 acknowledges this, it still falls short of modernising the programme in some key areas. To ensure long-term benefits for SSA economies, we recommend: • A swift reauthorisation for a longer period, incorporating continuation provisions to reduce future uncertainty. • More transparent and predictable eligibility reviews, with a possibility of partial exclusion for non-compliance, would also help mitigate uncertainty. • Expansion of rules of origin, which is crucial for stimulating intra-continental trade and enhancing value addition within SSA. • Widening the programme’s scope by addressing, for example, digital trade, services, non-tariff measures, regulatory cooperation and investment facilitation.
Topic:: Development, Exports, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

50. Trump’s assault on foreign aid: implications for international development cooperation

Author:: Sebastian Haug, Anna Novoselova, and Stephan Klingebiel
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The United States of America has long been a leading force in international development cooperation, both politically and financially. However, the first weeks of the second Trump administration have called the traditional role of US foreign aid fundamentally into question. From a 90-day funding freeze to the withdrawal from United Nations (UN) bodies and the dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), measures taken by Trump and his team are not only having palpable repercussions on a wide range of humanitarian and development programmes, but they also point to more far-reaching implications. Against this backdrop, this paper presents the contours and discusses the global consequences of Trump’s assault on US foreign aid, as of late February 2025. We outline the extant role of the United States as a donor in Section 2 and review the changes announced – and/or implemented – by the current US government in Section 3. Section 4 discusses the implications of US funding cuts for bilateral cooperation, while Section 5 focuses on repercussions on multilateral development work. Section 6 outlines three scenarios on how the ongoing changes in the United States might affect the field of international development. We discuss the possible ramifications of (a) a revamped US approach to foreign aid centring on crude national interests, (b) a US retreat that is at least partially offset by other providers and (c) a US retreat without other providers stepping in. Section 7 concludes by discussing the implications for dealing with the second Trump administration. We outline four recommendations that address stakeholders across the – increasingly outdated – donor–recipient divide: (1) refining development cooperation approaches, (2) strengthening the multilateral development system, (3) promoting Southern self-reliance and (4) fostering alliances beyond a Trump-led US government.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, International Development, Donald Trump, and USAID
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

51. Thompson’s Rifle Battalion: The Original Unit of the Army of the United Colonies (Now the United States Regular Army)

Author:: John A. Bonin
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Although 1775 is indisputably the birth year of the US Army, two events occurred on June 14 of that year to which the Army can credit its birthday. One is the adoption by the Continental Congress of the collective militia forces from several colonies outside Boston to form a Continental Army, of which Congress appointed George Washington the commander in chief on June 15, 1775. In addition, the US Regular Army officially dates its beginning to June 14, 1775, when the Second Continental Congress directed 10 companies of expert riflemen to be raised immediately in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia. William Thompson’s commission as the colonel of the Pennsylvania Rifle Battalion was dated June 25, 1775, and made him the first colonel of what would eventually become, through George Washington’s Continental Army, the US Regular Army. But William Thompson has not found a prominent place in the American pantheon of revolutionary heroes for a variety of reasons. In addition, Thompson’s Pennsylvania Rifle Battalion later became the 1st Continental Regiment and ended the American Revolution as the 1st Pennsylvania Regiment, but its lineage has not continued in the modern US Army.
Topic:: History, Militias, Military, American Revolution, George Washington, and William Thompson
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

52. Assessing the Zeitenwende: Implications for Germany, the United States, and Transatlantic Security

Author:: John R. Deni, Marina E. Henke, Aylin Matlé, Sophia Besch, and Tim Bosch
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The essays in this volume analyze Germany’s Zeitenwende, a pivotal shift in security policy triggered by Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Key topics include national security strategy, defense policy, energy policy, industrial strategy, and international relations with Russia, China, the United States, NATO, and the EU. Regarding strategy, Germany’s approach lacks focus, offering broad goals without addressing trade-offs or specific threats. On defense policy, the Zeitenwende marked a renewed commitment to defense spending, bolstered by a €100 billion modernization fund. But delays in procurement, operational shortcomings, and an underfunded long-term defense budget hinder Germany. Similar challenges affect the defense industry, despite increased spending and exports. In energy policy, Germany rapidly diversified energy sources and expanded its liquefied natural gas infrastructure to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. Still, achieving energy security, affordability, and sustainability remains complex. Internationally, Germany abandoned decades of Ostpolitik, prioritizing Ukraine over ties with Russia. Germany’s evolving China policy focuses on derisking and maintaining economic ties, raising questions about whether Berlin has reduced vulnerabilities. Though Washington supports Germany’s strategic shift, concerns remain about its sustainability, particularly in Germany’s NATO and EU commitments. Each chapter concludes by identifying the implications for the United States as well as the steps to overcome identified challenges.
Topic:: NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Energy Security, Burden Sharing, and Zeitenwende
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Germany, and United States of America

53. Hypersonic Myths and Strategic Realities

Author:: Mihai Giboi
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: After decades of deterrence preventing nuclear war, hypersonic weapons appear poised to undermine strategic stability due to their speed, manoeuvrability, and potential ability to defeat missile defences. Because of their technological characteristics, Canadian and American discourse largely conclude that they will pose challenges to the international security environment, especially nuclear deterrence. However, the literature’s technical lens provides exaggerated threat assessments that assert hypersonics could disrupt the strategic nuclear balance, without acknowledging the risk of retaliation. Consequently, this paper counters these claims by drawing from Thomas Schelling’s emphasis on mutual vulnerability, and Kenneth Waltz’s insights about counterforce limitations, to demonstrate that hypersonic weapons cannot undermine strategic stability because they are subject to the same constraints that discourage a nuclear attack. It also argues that attacking command-and-control is more dangerous than attempting a counterforce strike, since it does not attempt to physically neutralize a second-strike capability.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Deterrence, and Hypersonic Weapons
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

54. The Origins of the Second US Civil War

Author:: Mark Southern
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The paper, “The Origins of the Second U.S. Civil War”, provides a hypothetical assessment of what might follow a disputed 2024 American election, and outlines three factors that would facilitate a fall into civil violence in such a scenario. Donald Trump has expediated a deterioration of the American political environment, and has targeted a specific subset of American citizenry. This subset has a rich militaristic tradition, and this paper argues that they might be instrumental in the devolution of future US politics. The power of the American military establishment has greatly increased post-WWII, and this paper also argues that the increased institutional pull held by the armed forces might similarly contribute to the outbreak of civil violence.
Topic:: Civil War, Military, Risk Assessment, and Civil Violence
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

55. The Role of Mass Media Propaganda in Shaping American Culture: A Study on the Torches of Freedom

Author:: Oğuz Kartav and Mikail Uğuş
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This study examines the profound impact of mass media propaganda on American culture, with a particular focus on the iconic Torches of Freedom campaign. Originating in the late 19th century and led by Edward Bernays, this campaign aimed to reshape social norms surrounding women and smoking. Initially, a societal taboo prevailed, suggesting that respectable women did not smoke. Although tobacco consumption was common in America during the late 19th century, women were neither expected nor permitted to partake in the consumption of tobacco products until 1929. Women were eventually allowed the option to smoke discreetly, but even then, it was considered taboo by American society due to its perceived unfeminine nature. Particularly in North America and Europe, women’s smoking had long been associated with immorality and questionable sexual behaviour. Through the analysis of historical documents, media artefacts, and scholarly literature, this research examines the multifaceted impact of the Torches of Freedom campaign on American culture. It explores how mass media, through carefully crafted messages and imagery, played a significant and influential role in shaping public perceptions and behaviour. By examining the campaign’s relationship with dominant cultural ideologies and its effects on gender roles, the research aims to illuminate the complex interplay between propaganda, cultural values, and social change. The study focuses on advertising, consumerism, and cultural practices in the United States by examining the strategies employed in the Torches of Freedom campaign through the lens of propaganda.
Topic:: Mass Media, Culture, Propaganda, and Advertising
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

56. Power and Financial Interdependence

Author:: Brad Setser
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The link between financial self-reliance and geopolitical power has long been debated. The unbalanced Sino-American trade relationship has created asymmetric financial ties which generate potential sources of leverage for both parties and will not quickly disappear. Absent a clarifying major crisis, it will be difficult to definitively determine which party has greater leverage. Many in the United States (US) are concerned about indebtedness to its primary strategic rival, and the risks posed by a sudden Chinese withdrawal from US financial markets. US policymakers actively sought to encourage China’s top leadership not to withdraw financing from the market for US Agency securities in the run-up to the global financial crisis. Yet China also sees risks in this unbalanced financial relationship. Chinese policymakers have expressed concern about the domestic political consequences of losses on either their Treasury or Agency holdings and actively have sought to diversify China’s reserves – including by substituting the risk of lending to developing economies for the visibility associated with large holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. China increasingly worries that its dollar holdings and the dollar’s global role increase its vulnerability to potential financial sanctions. Both parties thus worry about the possibility that financial interdependence can be weaponized yet find it hard to extricate themselves from the inevitability of financial interdependence absent a clean break from an entrenched pattern of trade imbalances.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Finance, and Interdependence
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

57. The Future of Nuclear Proliferation after the War in Ukraine

Author:: Nicholas L. Miller
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: In the context of deep changes to the international security environment, especially the war in Ukraine, the risks of nuclear proliferation seem quite high, especially in the Middle East and East Asia. Four categories of factors have been identified that might trigger an escalation. Firstly, changes in the international security environment, including heightened competition among major powers, could increase pressure for proliferation in regions like Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Secondly, the declining ability of the United States to enforce non-proliferation regimes may lead allies to seek nuclear capabilities due to concerns over U.S. reliability. Thirdly, failures by nuclear powers to uphold disarmament commitments and the emergence of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons could undermine non-proliferation norms. Lastly, the war in Ukraine highlights the potential use of nuclear threats in conflicts, reinforcing the perception of nuclear weapons as crucial for national security. While there are reasons to anticipate growing proliferation risks, historical precedent suggests that these risks can be managed. Concerns over U.S. reliability and disarmament failures have been addressed through coercion and reassurance in the past. Additionally, the impact of conventional wars supported by nuclear deterrence has been contained. While some risk factors are novel, such as the decline of the U.S. nuclear industry and the emergence of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, their decisive impact remains uncertain. The implications for the Middle East and East Asia vary. Allies like Japan and South Korea may be convinced to remain non-nuclear due to U.S. security assurances, while adversaries like Iran could be incentivized to pursue nuclear capabilities amid declining effectiveness of U.S. sanctions. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it may pressure Saudi Arabia to follow suit, potentially leading to regional proliferation dynamics. Thus, great powers and the international community need to step in to manage proliferation triggers by maintaining a focus on nonproliferation in their statecraft.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

58. Seeking Safer Shells: An Analysis of Interpretations, Justifications, and Rationales Behind Decisions on North Korean Defectors’ Right to Asylum

Author:: Megumi Faith Mallari and Saleh Naas
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Despite their known and indisputable need for protection, North Koreans often have their applications for asylum rejected. This paper outlines the differing interpretations of North Koreans’ right to asylum and investigates the rationales and justifications behind them through the case studies of the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and China (PRC). The paper argues that the rationale of the European countries analyzed is based on their generally restrictive view on asylum, independent from their political positioning on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Contrastingly, the rationales of the United States and the PRC are grounded in interests directly related to the Korean peninsula and Cold War narratives.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Asylum, and Refugee Policy
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, France, Germany, Netherlands, and United States of America

59. Revising Organ Procurement Organization Guidelines to Obtaining Family Consent for Deceased Donation: An Anthropologically Informed Policy Proposal

Author:: Gillian Tisdale
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Organ transplantation has become a widespread medical practice with public policy designed to increase rates of deceased donation. When individuals have not registered as organ donors, next-of-kin are called on to make donation decisions—requiring families to grapple with the often-confusing concept of ‘brain death’ and parse their understanding of what the deceased would have wanted. Current public policy is explicitly designed to promote high donation rates without clear regard to the experiences of donor-families; at best, these policies prime donation conversations to involve unethical practices, while at worst, the disregard of kin’s experiences may also diminish deceased donation rates. Anthropological literature has documented the often aggressive tactics used by transplant organizations that demonstrate a disregard for the emotional experiences of kin. In 2023, Congress passed the Securing the U.S. Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Act, prompting the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to reevaluate organ donation policies and solicit requests for proposal for a new federal contractor to take over the network responsible for overseeing all organ sharing. This article leverages the relevant anthropological literature to provide guiding principles and proposed language amending the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Interpretive Guidance that HHS could implement as part of its modernization initiative. These principles aim to improve experiences for kin without lowering donation rates. The article recommends that HHS and its contractors collect metrics to measure the quality of Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) interactions, counterbalancing current benchmarks focused on procurement rates. It also recommends improved protocols to empathically and systematically support kin’s understanding of brain death.
Topic:: Legislation, Public Policy, Procurement, and Organ Transplants
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

60. Guam in Washington, 1972-Present: The Overlooked Strategic Implications of Congressional Polarization

Author:: Mirabai Venkatesh
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Contrary to the long-held logic that giving Guam a stronger, more autonomous voice will undermine U.S. strategic interests, failing to provide Guam with a stable pathway of interest advancement beyond Congress hinders its development and with it the federal government’s ability to achieve soft-power advantages and basic military readiness in the Indo-Pacific theater. Since the United States assumed responsibility for administering the territory of Guam in 1898, it has treated the prospect of Guam’s status improvement as detrimental to U.S. strategic interests. This has informed its chosen method of territorial administration, which places U.S. territories under the authority of the Department of the Interior. Each territory is then given only one formal representative in Congress, specifically the U.S. House of Representatives, but without full-voting rights. This paper will explore how Guam has managed to advance its interests in Washington since 1972, highlighting how congressional representation has become Guam’s most successful pathway of interest advancement with the federal government to date. However, the agency and success of Guam’s congressional delegates must be framed within a broader discussion of the fragility of the U.S. approach to territorial administration, which has relegated Guam to a pathway of interest advancement incredibly vulnerable to political sea change. Ultimately, this paper will illustrate how Guam’s main pathway of interest advancement in Washington is quickly narrowing at the expense of U.S. strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, History, Soft Power, Autonomy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Guam

61. Emerging Powers and the Future of American Statecraft

Author:: Christopher S. Chivvis and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The structure of international politics is changing in ways that are not fully appreciated in Washington. The United States has paid a great deal of attention to the rise of China in the last decade but much less to emerging powers whose rise will also shape the operating environment for American statecraft. No single emerging power will have an impact tantamount to China’s, but they will have a significant impact collectively due to their geopolitical weight and diplomatic aspirations. America has limited ability to influence the trajectory of these emerging powers, identified in this report as Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye. They have taken stances that contrast or directly clash with U.S. positions on China and on Russia over the past few years. Nearly all have voiced concerns about Washington’s approach to the war in Ukraine, even as they criticized Moscow’s invasion. Almost none would line up with the United States in a confrontation with China. Instead, they are likely to pursue highly self-interested foreign policies. Washington should expect that they will increasingly challenge some of its policies, sustain relationships with its adversaries, and press their own agendas on the global stage. The emerging powers’ statecrafts are shaped in large part by their drive for economic security. But their geographies, different preferences for world order, domestic politics, and defense relationships also play a role. Concerns about the strength of democracy in other countries, which has played an animating role in U.S. foreign policy for decades, are a lower priority for them, no matter how democratic they are. It will be a mistake for the United States to frame its relations with these emerging powers primarily as part of a competition for influence with China and Russia, however tempting it may be to do so. These powers are not swing states that will tilt decisively toward either side in a global great power competition. Most will resist any efforts to bring them into a U.S.-led camp as in the Cold War. Trying to make them do so would also risk strategic overreach by embroiling the United States too deeply in the emerging powers’ domestic politics or by expending its resources in pursuit of building ties that never materialize. A better approach for the United States would be to focus on negotiating interest-based deals with emerging powers while cordoning off areas of disagreement. These might include tailored market access and investment agreements, agreements on technology manufacturing, energy transition initiatives, efforts to combat deforestation, efforts to build public health infrastructure, and infrastructure investments. It would be wasteful of the United States to offer these countries security guarantees, but in some cases providing security assistance can serve its interests. Washington should accept that most of these countries will maintain close diplomatic, economic, and sometimes security relationships with China and probably Russia. Over the longer term, it will serve U.S. interests to strengthen the sovereignty of emerging powers when possible and cost-effective to do so. This will provide a bulwark against the undue expansion of China’s power and influence and help ensure that, even if they do not side with the United States, they are not drawn closely into the orbit of its major geopolitical competitors. Strengthening emerging powers’ sovereignty will also help boost their development as constructive powers with a stake in sustaining a peaceful world order conducive to global economic growth.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Strategic Competition, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America

62. Israel and Genocide: Not Only In Gaza

Author:: Mark Lewis Taylor
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Israel and the United States share responsibility in perpetuating Guatemala's military-sponsored Silent Holocaust.
Topic:: Genocide, Counterinsurgency, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Guatemala, and United States of America

63. Honduras: A Narco-State Made in the United States

Author:: Laura Blume
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Although Juan Orlando Hernández was convicted of drug trafficking in a New York court, the United States has yet to own up to its role in fostering state-sponsored drug trafficking in Honduras.
Topic:: Conflict, Coup, Organized Crime, Drug Trafficking, and Narco-State
Political Geography:: Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America

64. Viva Palestina! NYC Student Encampments Spark National Rebellion

Author:: Mariana Navarrete Villegas
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Latinx students are standing with Palestine. For them, the occupation and oppression of Palestine are inseparable from the U.S.- and Israel-backed militarization of Latin America.
Topic:: Genocide, Occupation, Protests, Political Movements, Students, and Militarization
Political Geography:: New York, Palestine, Gaza, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

65. A Strategic Cross-Border Labor Alliance

Author:: David Bacon
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A relationship between a U.S. and a Mexican union, forged in the face of NAFTA, has borne fruit over decades of struggle. Two leaders reflect on the importance of international solidarity.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Solidarity, Alliance, NAFTA, and Unions
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

66. Update: US and UK Strikes on Yemen Escalate Tensions

Author:: Luca Nevola
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 12 January, United States and United Kingdom air forces claimed to have carried out strikes on over 60 Houthi targets at 16 locations in Yemen. The operation was supported by Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, members of the naval task force Operation Prosperity Guardian. The spokesperson of the Houthi military forces acknowledged the attack, mentioning that 73 raids targeted the capital Sanaa and the governorates of al-Hudayda, Taizz, Hajja, and Saada, resulting in five fighters dead and six injured. The multi-national operation sought to eliminate Houthi strategic infrastructure, thereby diminishing the Houthis’ offensive capabilities, and to retaliate following the group’s 9 January direct attack on US warships. However, it is unlikely that the strikes completely eradicated Houthi military capacity to target objectives in the Red Sea.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Strategic Infrastructure
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

67. US Student Pro-Palestine Demonstrations Remain Overwhelmingly Peaceful | ACLED Brief

Author:: Bianca Ho and Kieran Doyle
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Student protests calling for divestment from Israel on university campuses around the United States are the latest sign of public discontent with the Israel-Palestine conflict. Some notable violent clashes have recently taken place, such as on the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) campus, where demonstrators and counter-demonstrators fought at a student encampment overnight on 30 April. However, between 7 October and 3 May, the overwhelming majority of student demonstrations — 97% — have remained peaceful. Demonstrations involving students now make up more than 40% of all US demonstration activity related to the conflict since it reignited in October 2023. Over 94% of the more than 1,360 student demonstrations held between 7 October 2023 and 3 May 2024 have shown support for Palestine.
Topic:: Political Movements, Students, Demonstrations, Divestment, and Universities
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

68. US Hegemony in Latin America: Think Tanks and the Formation of Consensus about the Chinese Presence

Author:: Luciana Wietchikoski and Livia Peres Milani
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: In recent years, U.S. government agencies have defined the Chinese presence in Latin America as a challenge, which has organized foreign policy towards the region. Departing from a neo-Gramscian approach, this paper investigates the bibliographical production of U.S. think tanks and seeks to understand the construction of consensus about the Chinese presence in Latin America. The methodology is based on content analysis and we identified two main narratives: in the first, the Chinese presence is presented as a threat to U.S. regional hegemony; in the second, the Chinese adaptation to liberal precepts is sought. There are therefore nuances in how the Chinese power is perceived, although the discourses remain restricted to the promotion of capitalism and neoliberalism under U.S. leadership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Think Tanks
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

69. How American Public Opinion on Palestine Shifted

Author:: Geneive Abdo
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Overlapping connections among young activists struggling for the rights of women, 2SLGBTQIA+, Black Lives Matter, indigenous Indians, Latinos, and all people of color have produced a dramatic shift in how the Palestinian–Israeli conflict is being perceived in the United States
Topic:: Public Opinion, Solidarity, Protests, Ceasefire, and Activism
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

70. Covering the Palestinian–Israeli Conflict: Between Exasperation and Empathy

Author:: Lawrence Pintak
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A personal reflection of American involvement in the region’s wars through the eyes of a correspondent
Topic:: Media, Journalism, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Empathy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

71. Gaza: Israel’s Unwinnable War

Author:: Richard Silverstein
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Even if, for argument’s sake, it achieved its war goals, Palestinian resistance will exist wherever there are Palestinians—whether in Sinai, Beirut, Ankara, Tehran or Amman
Topic:: Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Axis of Resistance, 2023 Gaza War, and AIPAC
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

72. Why Trump's tariff proposals would harm working Americans

Author:: Kimberly Clausing and Mary Lovely
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: At the beginning of its history, the United States relied on tariffs—taxes on imported goods—as its major source of government revenue. That changed starting in the early 20th century, with the enactment of the federal income tax and the advent of a new consensus recognizing tariffs as regressive, burdening the working class while leaving untaxed much of the income accruing to the wealthy. At present, less than 2 percent of government revenue in high-income countries comes from import taxes. Today, however, the United States may be on the cusp of reverting to an antiquated approach to funding its government. Presidential candidate Donald Trump is proposing to reduce US reliance on income taxes while increasing our reliance on import tariffs. He proposes extending expiring tax cuts from 2017 and has also suggested possible new rounds of tax cuts. At the same time, he has proposed a ten percent "across-the-board" tariff and a 60 percent or more tariff on imports from China. Together, these policy steps would amount to regressive tax cuts, only partially paid for by regressive tax increases. The tariffs would reduce after-tax incomes by 3.5 percent for those in the bottom half of the income distribution and cost a typical household in the middle of the income distribution about $1,700 in increased taxes each year. If executed, these steps would increase the distortions and burdens created by the rounds of tariffs levied during the first Trump administration (and sustained during the Biden administration), while inflicting massive collateral damage on the US economy. This Policy Brief leverages recent research to provide approximate calculations for the cost of the higher proposed tariffs to US consumers, considering the distribution of these costs across US households and the consequences for US federal revenues. In sum, Trump's tax proposals entail sharply regressive tax policy changes, shifting tax burdens away from the well-off and toward lower-income members of society while harming US workers and industries, inviting retaliation from trading partners, and worsening international relations.
Topic:: Elections, Tax Systems, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

73. The influence of gasoline and food prices on consumer expectations and attitudes in the COVID era

Author:: Joanne Hsu
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Food and gasoline prices are extremely salient to consumers, who regularly purchase these goods, and these prices are highly visible. The shared experience of purchasing food and gasoline makes it no surprise that those prices have been blamed for the relatively dismal consumer views of the economy in 2023 amid strong economic indicators, including slowing inflation, low unemployment, and robust growth. At the same time, consumer inflation expectations have eased during this past year. This Policy Brief investigates the role food and gasoline prices play in influencing consumer inflation expectations and economic sentiment, as measured on the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, and focuses on the COVID inflationary episode. The author finds that, although consumer sentiment now appears to be more sensitive to inflation than prior to the pandemic, inflation expectations do not. Even though inflation has waned, consumers still spontaneously comment on the negative impact of high prices on their lives. That said, these persistently negative perceptions about inflation have not translated into persistently high inflation expectations.
Topic:: Inflation, COVID-19, Consumer Behavior, and Cost of Living
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

74. Climate action: Implications for factor market reallocation

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper considers climate policies, not from the perspective of their environmental impacts, but rather their likely effects on labor and investments. While the aggregate impact of the green transition on jobs and investment may be modest, it will require significant reallocation of labor and capital within and across industries. Although the green transition brings new opportunities for employment and investment in renewable technologies, many workers and communities tied to the fossil fuel industry may not benefit from these advances due to skills mismatch and geographic constraints. Both the United States and the European Union acknowledge the importance of achieving “climate justice” and “leaving no one behind” in their decarbonization efforts. However, current policies and resources in the United States may fall short, with inadequate assistance reaching too many communities and a narrow focus on green jobs. In Europe, while the Just Transition Fund complements existing programs, effective implementation of place-based policies remains challenging due to the need for specific, localized responses.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Labor Issues, European Union, and Energy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

75. The effect of lawful crossing on unlawful crossing at the US southwest border

Author:: Michael A. Clemens
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: An increasing number of migrants attempt to cross the US Southwest border without obtaining a visa or any other prior authorization. 2.5 million migrants did so in 2023. In recent years, responding to this influx, US officials have expanded lawful channels for a limited number of these migrants to cross the border, but only at official ports of entry. These expanded lawful channels were intended to divert migrants away from crossing between ports of entry, by foot or across rivers, thereby reducing unlawful crossings. On the other hand, some have argued that expanding lawful entry would encourage more migrants to cross unlawfully. This study seeks to shed light on that debate by assessing the net effect of lawful channels on unlawful crossings. It considers almost 11 million migrants (men, women, and children) encountered at the border crossing the border without prior permission or authorization. Using statistical methods designed to distinguish causation from simple correlation, it finds that a policy of expanding lawful channels to cross the border by 10 percent in a given month causes a net reduction of about 3 percent in unlawful crossings several months later. Fluctuations in the constraints on lawful crossings can explain roughly 9 percent of the month-to-month variation in unlawful crossings. The data thus suggest that policies expanding access to lawful crossing can serve as a partial but substantial deterrent to unlawful crossing and that expanding access can serve as an important tool for more secure and regulated borders.
Topic:: Security, Migration, and Borders
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

76. The Evolving Landscape of U.S. Economic Security: The Confluence of Trade, Technology, and National Security

Author:: Andrea Viski
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This paper examines the current evolution of U.S. economic security discourse to demonstrate the implications, challenges, and shortcomings of U.S. economic security tools and the catalyzing impact of technology. While component economic security considerations are broad and encompass issues from natural disaster planning to cybersecurity, this paper focuses specifically on the impact of trade and technology in the economic security context. It discusses the main influences and features of U.S. economic security policy as it relates to trade, technology, and the security of the supply chain. The paper includes sections on evolving notions of the dual-use concept; the need to manage and respond to technology flows with more effective strategies, and new foreign policy efforts and tools to strengthen economic security. The paper focuses on the trends forging the path for the United States to define economic security so closely with national security, and in exploring these trends, it delineates how the United States has implemented policies and adopted, reoriented, or created new policy tools designed to strengthen economic security. The paper also explores why the rapid evolution of emerging technologies has played such a defining role. Finally, the paper examines the effectiveness of the U.S. approach to economic security and its challenges and offers insights into how it can be strengthened in the future
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Trade, and Economic Security
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

77. Is Economic Security National Security? Defining South Korea’s Economic Security for Future Industries

Author:: June Park
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This paper explores how South Korea defines “economic security.” Amidst geopolitical turbulence, the framing of this concept by governments and policy circles around the globe is reflective of the changes in the global economy post-pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine, two critical junctures that have revealed the geo-economic impact of weaponized interdependence. While the Biden administration has laid out U.S. policy intent to combine national security with economic security, specifically on future industries of dual-use nature ranging from chips to EVs, batteries, and generative AI, countries that are on the receiving end of policy implementation are formulating their response to the shifting geoeconomics. This paper unravels South Korea’s framing of economic security and policy response by analyzing legislation on future industries that is critical to the country’s economic growth and standing and the concerted efforts by the state bureaucracy and industry in shaping the concept. The paper draws specifically upon semiconductors in addition to other future industries that are central to the South Korean economy and related legislation in the South Korean National Assembly. It argues that South Korea’s policy response and framing of its economic security has more to do with the protection of industries for the future amid geopolitical turbulence and the reshuffling of global supply chains than traditional security issues related to the U.S.-ROK alliance. Moreover, public anxiety on the pressures toward U.S.-driven trilateral cooperation reveals concerns on a possible backlash from China and the lagging potential of Japan in future industries.
Topic:: National Security, Geopolitics, Industry, and Economic Security
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

78. South Korea: Caught in the Crosshairs of U.S.−China Competition Over Semiconductors

Author:: Paul Triolo
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This paper explores how countries with advanced semiconductor industries are caught in the middle of the growing U.S.-China competition in technology that is focused on advanced computing. Among them, South Korea and its national champions, Samsung and SK Hynix, have arguably incurred some of the most significant pressure. This paper explores how those firms have billions of dollars of sunk investment in China-based facilities producing cutting-edge memory, and the future of these facilities remains in doubt after a series of U.S. export control measures unleashed by the U.S. Commerce Department starting in October 2022. South Korean companies are also players in other parts of the global semiconductor supply chain, including semiconductor manufacturing tools, and China remains an important market for both components and electronic devices. This paper argues that each country caught between the United States and China in technology competition faces difficult trade-offs in determining how best to support its leading companies while navigating changing and often what is viewed as arbitrary decisions coming from Washington that have already significantly disrupted global supply chains. Finally, at the same time as U.S. export controls are having a major impact on the ability of South Korean companies to retain business operations and market access in China, major front-end manufacturers, particularly Samsung, are also looking to expand their operations in the United States and benefit from U.S. CHIPS Act funding. This paper argues that all of the above dynamics put South Korea in one of the more complex positions as the industry faces continued restructuring, buffeted by both export controls and industrial policies.
Topic:: Supply Chains, Economic Security, Semiconductors, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

79. Economic Security and U.S.-China Competition: The View from North Korea

Author:: Rachel Minyoung Lee
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This paper argues that while North Korea does not discuss “economic security” in domestic contexts or have an established definition of the term, it thoroughly understands that the economy and national security are inseparable. North Korea is essentially unaffected by the typical economic issues that many major economies are grappling with in relation to economic security, but like other countries, it has closely tracked economic security developments and deepening U.S.-China strategic competition for potential political fallout and what opportunities and challenges that may generate. The paper shows that U.S.-China strategic competition has offered unique opportunities to North Korea, including China’s cover against fresh and existing sanctions against North Korea, and economic assistance. Moreover, deteriorating U.S.-China ties provide Pyongyang extra space to consider and put into motion alternative foreign and economic policy paths, namely, shifting away from its three-decade policy of nonalignment with China and normalization of relations with the United States. Also, China appears to be a factor in North Korea’s shift to a more conservative economic policy. Despite the opportunities presented by the U.S.-China divide, however, North Korea is wary of the risks of dependence on China and has tried to build economic resilience at home, for example by launching a national campaign on domestic production and recycling. North Korea’s somewhat cooler handling of China and its proportionately warm treatment of Russia since the Armistice Day celebrations in July is a clear example of North Korea’s China dilemma. This is where North Korea’s recent strengthening of ties with Russia comes into the picture. The paper contends that it is hard to conclude at this point whether North Korea’s moves are aimed at short-term, tactical gains or are part of a longer-term, strategic calculus, but we can be certain of this: it has just as much to gain or lose as any other country affected by economic security and U.S.-China strategic competition, though not in the same ways as other countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Economic Security
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

80. Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

Author:: Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: After decades of seeking to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in international relations, the United States is now grappling with a global landscape marked by intense strategic competition and the growing salience of nuclear weapons—problems that will likely persist for years to come. Over the past year, Russia compounded its aggression in Ukraine with nuclear saber-rattling, modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces over the past decade. Furthermore, Russia’s possession of a substantial inventory of theater nuclear weapons continues to threaten regional deterrence. Meanwhile, in Asia, Beijing is pursuing an unprecedented surge in its nuclear capabilities. If current trends persist, China is projected to possess about 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035.1 While China was once viewed as a secondary nuclear power, its substantial investment in its nuclear arsenal—including the launch of a third ballistic missile early-warning satellite in 2022 and advancements in land-based ballistic missiles, aircraft, submarines, and hypersonic missiles—positions China to become a near-equal nuclear power in the coming decade. These trends mark a historic shift. For the first time in its history, the United States must face two near-peer nuclear competitors simultaneously. At the same time, Russia’s suspension of its compliance with the New START agreement in 2023 has significantly weakened the last strategic arms control framework established in the Cold War and post-Cold War eras. This move leaves scant provisions governing the future of nuclear capabilities among the United States and its adversaries. For over half a century, Washington and Moscow negotiated to establish treaties that imposed limits on their nuclear arsenals, aiming to manage their nuclear rivalry and mitigate the risk of nuclear conflict. This process served the national security interests of both sides by curbing weapons and activities that could jeopardize deterrence, safeguarding strategic stability, offering insights into nuclear capacities, and potentially steering military competition toward less perilous avenues. However, shifts in the global security landscape have altered this calculus. The Russian Federation, much like the Soviet Union before it, has insisted that future agreements factor in the nuclear capabilities of Britain and France. On the other hand, the United States now confronts a security environment featuring two nuclear-armed adversaries—Russia and China—whose forces will potentially pose significant threats to the United States and its allies. This evolving security landscape may prompt the United States to reevaluate its assessments of its deterrence and arms control requirements. But how should the United States approach this problem?
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, Korea, and United States of America

81. Redefining US strategy with Latin America and the Caribbean for a new era

Author:: Jason Marczak, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The strategic interest of the United States and the countries of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) lies in strengthening their western hemisphere partnership. Shared borders, economic interests, and security alliances bind these nations, along with a common goal for prosperity. However, the perception of waning US interest and the rise of external influences necessitate the rejuvenation of and renewed focus on this partnership. In May 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security established the US-LAC Future Strategy Working Group to redefine the US-LAC partnership. This strategy promotes mutual and inclusive economic growth, renewed cooperation through enhanced commercial and investment ties, a renewed paradigm on bolstering security and reducing migration flows across the region, and a focus on preparedness in the face of natural disasters and the energy transition. Acting on this strategy could significantly benefit US economic and security interests. The United States should capitalize on immediate opportunities, like promoting nearshoring as a means to growth and prosperity across the Americas, while maintaining a medium-term strategy tailored to each country’s specific needs. This strategy paper highlights the importance of adaptability and practicality, particularly as the global economic landscape evolves and power shifts foresee new leading economies by mid-century. In addition, the strategy advocates for the significance of the US-LAC relationship amid the recalibration of US worldwide interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, Politics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America

82. Sanctions have become a tool of first resort. But enforcement needs upgraded and updated resources.

Author:: David Mortlock and Alex Zerden
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Enforcement remains a critical but underresourced element of economic sanctions. The US Congress and the Department of the Treasury should consider updates to its resources, public guidance, and policies to ensure the efficacy of sanctions enforcement as the use of the sanctions policy tool continues to expand. Economic sanctions are often described as the foreign policy tool of first resort. The Department of the Treasury acknowledged this reality in its “2021 Sanctions Review.” Through its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Treasury Department administers thirty-eight different, albeit overlapping, economic sanctions programs. With only a few hundred employees, OFAC has a nearly unparalleled national security mandate with oversight of the US economy and many other facets of global economic activities. OFAC develops policies for the use of sanctions, designates sanctions targets like individuals, entities, and jurisdictions, engages with the private sector to promote compliance, and civilly enforces apparent violations by US persons and others. This latter enforcement role represents a critical but often overlooked capability. For instance, the same “2021 Sanctions Review” does not even mention the enforcement function in its assessment. (However, it did seek to ensure that sanctions are “enforceable” in the context of sanctions implementation.) Resource constraints, a lack of attention, and the prioritization of policy crises hamper this enforcement function. In 2023, OFAC only undertook seventeen public enforcement actions, including its largest settlement to date with Binance, a global cryptocurrency exchange. For perspective, the Department of Justice terminated 63,419 civil cases in fiscal year 2022, according to the most recent public data. As the wider interagency continues to rely on sanctions as a critical tool and the United States seeks to expand partner sanctions capacity, US policymakers must fully support the sanctions enforcement function. Strengthening the internal controls for OFAC enforcement improves the rule of law through improved due process and protects OFAC from legal challenges that could existentially undermine its national security mission. OFAC enforcement urgently requires increased budgetary resources and an upskilled workforce from Congress, stronger internal procedures to avoid litigation risks, improved public guidance, and revised enforcement guidelines to promote consistency and improve compliance by industry.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Sanctions, Transparency, and Enforcement
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

83. Geoeconomic fragmentation and net-zero targets

Author:: Shirin Hakim and Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The second half of the twentieth century experienced significant economic integration. International trade, cross-border migration, capital flows, and technological diffusion increased per capita incomes across countries and reduced global poverty. However, events such as the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009, Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic—all against the backdrop of escalating great power rivalry and tensions between the United States and China—have demonstrated the rise of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, a growing numberof world leaders have addressed the impacts of GEF on global energy and agricultural markets. For one, higher and increasingly volatile food and energy prices have made it increasingly difficult for developing nations to prioritize environmental concerns and implement sustainable development initiatives.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Economy, Economic Growth, Inclusion, Energy, Geoeconomics, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

84. Who’s a national security risk? The changing transatlantic geopolitics of data transfers

Author:: Kenneth Propp
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The geopolitics of transatlantic data transfers have been unvarying for the past decade. European governments criticize the US National Security Agency (NSA) for exploiting personal data moving from Europe to the United States for commercial reasons. The US government responds, through a series of arrangements with the European Union, by providing assurances that NSA collection is not disproportionate, and that Europeans have legal avenues if they believe their data has been illegally used. Although the arrangements have not proven legally stable, on the whole they have sufficed to keep data flowing via subsea cables under the Atlantic Ocean. Now the locus of national security concerns about international data transfers has shifted from Brussels to Washington. The Biden administration and the US Congress, in a series of bold measures, are moving aggressively to interrupt certain cross-border data flows, notably to China and Russia. The geopolitics of international data flows remain largely unchanged in Europe, however. European data protection authorities have been mostly noncommittal about the prospect of Russian state surveillance collecting Europeans’ personal data. Decisions on whether to transfer European data to Russia and China remain in the hands of individual companies. Will Washington’s new focus on data transfers to authoritarian states have an impact in Europe? Will Europe continue to pay more attention to the surveillance activities of its liberal democratic allies, especially the United States? Is there a prospect of Europe and the United States aligning on the national security risks of transfers to authoritarian countries?
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Economy, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

85. Intentionally vague: How Saudi Arabia and Egypt abuse legal systems to suppress online speech

Author:: Dina Sadek, Layla Mashkoor, Iain Robertson, and Andy Carvin
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Egypt and Saudi Arabia are weaponizing vaguely written domestic media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws to target and suppress dissent, opposition, and vulnerable groups. Political leaders in Egypt and Saudi Arabia often claim that their countries’ judicial systems enjoy independence and a lack of interference, a narrative intended to distance the states from the real and overzealous targeting and prosecution of critics. Such claims can be debunked and dismissed, as the Egyptian and Saudi governments have had direct involvement in establishing and implementing laws that are utilized to target journalists and human rights defenders. Egypt and Saudi Arabia were selected as case studies for this report because of their status as among the most frequently documented offenders in the region when it comes to exploiting ambiguously written laws to target and prosecute journalists, critics, activists, human rights defenders, and even apolitical citizens. The two countries have consolidated power domestically, permitting them to utilize and bend their domestic legal systems to exert control over the online information space. Punishments for those targeted can involve draconian prison sentences, travel bans, and fines, which result in a chilling effect that consequently stifles online speech and activities, preventing citizens from discussing political, social, and economic issues. Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia enacted media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws with ambiguous language and unclear definitions of legal terms, allowing for flexible interpretations of phrases such as “false information,” “morality,” or “family values and principles.” The laws in both countries also loosely define critical terms like “terrorism,” thereby facilitating expansive interpretations of what constitutes a terrorist crime. Further, anti-terror laws now include articles that connect the “dissemination of false information” with terrorist acts. This vague and elastic legal language has enabled the Egyptian and Saudi regimes to prosecute peaceful citizens on arbitrary grounds, sometimes handing out long prison sentences or even death sentences, undermining respect for the rule of law in the two countries. This report explores the development of media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws in both countries, and demonstrates through case studies how Saudi Arabia and Egypt weaponize the laws to prosecute opposition figures and control narratives online. This report examines the relationship between criminal charges tied to one’s professional activities or online speech and how those charges can trigger online smear campaigns and harassment. In cases that involve women, gender-based violence is often used to harm a woman’s reputation. Though a direct correlation between judicial charges and online harassment cannot be ascertained, these case studies suggest that dissidents are likely to face online harm following legal persecution, even after they are released.
Topic:: Human Rights, Internet, Freedom of Expression, Rule of Law, Disinformation, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

86. How Huawei Weathered the Storm: Resilience, Market Conditions or Failed Sanctions?

Author:: Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Robin Baker
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Huawei is exhibiting stoic resilience in the face of US sanctions, economic downturns, and the slow pace of 5G investments. There is a narrative that the company has been propped up by the Chinese government, but the key to Huawei’s resilience is multifaceted. Through pre-emptive stockpiling and ingenuity, the company has continued to fulfil its base station orders and defend its market shares abroad. Concurrently, Huawei has made an autonomous business decision to reinvest its earnings and intensify R&D to secure its supply chains against political risks and diversify into new business areas. Successful forays into semiconductors, cloud services and energy grids have also been facilitated by a capital structure that lends itself to long-term planning. Huawei’s survival is not necessarily a lesson in the futility of sanctions to stifle technological progress. However, it does show that muddled political objectives and inconsistent implementation will yield potentially contrary outcomes. At the same time, factors that contribute to Huawei’s resilience also highlight the infighting and vulnerabilities of listed firms like Mavenir, Ericsson and Nokia.
Topic:: Markets, Sanctions, Digital Economy, Resilience, and Huawei
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

87. Calling on the EU-US Trade and Technology Council: How to Deliver for the Planet and the Economy

Author:: Oscar Guinea, Vanika Sharma, Philipp Lamprecht, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief proposes the establishment of an agreement on conformity assessment between the EU and the US that covers machinery and electrical equipment. The initiative aims to increase the number of European and US conformity assessment bodies authorized to test and certify EU and US machinery and electrical equipment for exports into each other’s markets, without recognizing the equivalency or otherwise altering the product requirements in regulation, standards, or other normative documents on either side. While this study focuses on the economic effects of an agreement on conformity assessment that includes machinery and electrical equipment, the scope of such an agreement could potentially be extended to several additional product categories, particularly those that are subject to requirements for mandatory third-party conformity assessment in both the EU and the US. The increase in the number of conformity assessment bodies is expected to reduce the costs and the time required to demonstrate conformity. If this policy succeeds as expected in achieving a reduction in trade costs between 2 and 6 percent, US exports to the EU are projected to increase between US$ 11 billion and US$ 32.5 billion while EU exports to the US are estimated to grow by between US$ 13.8 billion and US$ 42.2 billion. In percentage terms, US firms are anticipated to experience a larger increase in exports of machinery and electrical equipment than their EU counterparts. The increase in trade flows as a result of this agreement is estimated to be larger than the rise in trade flows achieved in other Free Trade Agreements signed by the EU or the US. Moreover, as an increasing number of EU regulations begin to mandate third-party conformity assessment, US firms will increasingly benefit from this agreement when exporting to the EU. Given China’s status as the largest supplier of machinery and electrical equipment to both the EU and the US, the implementation of an EU-US agreement on conformity assessment would not only improve conditions for transatlantic trade but also lead to reduced trade dependence for the EU and the US on China. The reduction in trade costs between the EU and the US on machinery and electrical equipment due to the agreement could lower Chinese exports to the EU and the US by between US$ 6.5 billion and US$ 19.4 billion. Importantly, machinery and electrical equipment are crucial inputs for some of the key technologies in which the EU and the US Administrations have identified trade dependencies on China. However, in contrast with other policies aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese imports, an agreement on conformity assessment for machinery and electrical equipment will not require public subsidies or impose any financial burden on taxpayers. This agreement also has the potential to benefit the environment. Machinery and electrical equipment are essential inputs for green technologies. Therefore, a reduction in the cost and time of conformity assessment in these industries will accelerate the adoption of green technologies. An agreement on conformity assessment between the EU and the US covering green goods and clean technologies could increase transatlantic exports between US$ 3.1 billion and US$ 9.2 billion. While this increase in exports is significant, broadening the scope of the agreement to include the entirety of machinery and electrical equipment, rather than just a subset, is projected to lead to trade effects eight times larger. Moreover, as green technologies rapidly evolve, an agreement on conformity assessment has the potential to serve as a dynamic instrument that evolves to accommodate future regulatory and economic developments on climate and the environment on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

88. Openness as Strength: The Win-Win in EU-US Digital Services Trade

Author:: Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The discourse surrounding the EU’s supposed over-reliance on digital services imports from non-EU countries, particularly the US, has been a recurrent topic among some political circles. However, this viewpoint tends to oversimplify and misrepresent the nuanced and complex reality of the EU’s status within the global Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector and digitally enabled trade. A thorough analysis of trade data and trends clearly illustrates that the EU’s engagement with foreign (non-EU) digital services, notably from the US, represents a strategic economic advantage, bolstering Europe’s competitiveness and fostering productivity growth. Below we underline the critical importance of openness to foreign innovation and technology diffusion for the EU’s economic future.
Topic:: European Union, Digital Economy, Strategic Competition, Imports, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

89. ICT Beyond Borders: The Integral Role of US Tech in Europe’s Digital Economy

Author:: Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Contrary to political assertions about the vulnerability of digital services provided by non-EU companies, the strong presence and sunk costs associated with US tech companies’ investments in data centres, skilled workforce development, and research facilities in Europe act as significant barriers to exit, highlighting the inherent symbiosis between US tech investments and Europe’s digital and non-digital sectors. These investments underscore a mutual inter-dependency that strengthens European economies, making the notion of “sudden cessation” of digital services by US companies implausible. Corporate data show a significant investment gap of approximately USD 1.36 trillion between US and EU ICT companies, attributing a competitive edge to US firms due to their heavy investment in ICT, cloud solutions, and R&D. Forecasted increases in ICT investments by US corporations outline a benchmark beyond reach for EU businesses. The notion of EU firms aligning with this growth path is rather fantastical, as it would call for immense government investment, ultimately draining financial resources from essential public services, such as healthcare, housing, and environmental policies. Substantial ICT investments across EU Member States together with a long-term commitment to the European market present an opportunity for the EU to leverage US continuous technological advancements, underscoring the potential for transatlantic collaboration to drive the EU’s digital transformation and innovation. EU-US partnerships not only fuel the EU’s digital transformation but also align with shared political values, reinforcing the significance of transatlantic collaboration in shaping a competitive and innovative digital future.
Topic:: Communications, European Union, Digital Economy, Investment, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

90. Time to Rethink Export Controls for Strengthened US-EU Cooperation and Global Trade Rules

Author:: Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The escalation of broad export controls by the US, under the guise of national security and the aim to curb technological transfers to potential adversaries,[1] marks a new epoch of bureaucratic oversight. The US push for broad export controls also underscores a critical juncture in US-EU relations and global trade rules. Broad export restrictions not only challenge the very foundation of free trade but also contribute to the erosion of Western technology leadership.[2] Unilateral export controls may start strong but eventually lose effectiveness and become counterproductive,[3] pushing non-US companies, particularly in the semiconductor sector, to find alternatives to US components.
Topic:: International Cooperation, European Union, Regulation, Exports, Trade, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

91. Keeping Up with the US: Why Europe’s Productivity Is Falling Behind

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The European Union stands at a crossroads. For decades, the EU’s productivity growth has consistently lagged the United States, leading to slower growth in living standards and decline in global economic power. While short-term factors like the strong US fiscal expansion have widened the gap in nominal GDP growth in recent years, the fact is that Europe has trailed the US economic development for several decades and the root of the problem lies in deeper structural issues within the European economy. Four major forces fuel this productivity divide. Firstly, the EU’s investment in research and development (R&D) pales in comparison to the U.S., leading to fewer patents and a slower pace of technology-fuelled innovation. Secondly, Europe trails America in the stock and growth of intangible capital investments, which are crucial for adopting and diffusing new technologies that drive productivity. Thirdly, the EU market exhibits slower business creation and destruction compared to the US. This rigidity hinders the flow of resources towards the most productive firms. Lastly, despite boasting higher levels of trade openness, the EU attracts less Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) than the US, curbing its access to cutting-edge global technologies and expertise. To close the gap, European policymakers should implement a comprehensive strategy for faster productivity growth. The first step is turning up the dial on R&D spending, targeting 4-5 percent of GDP by 2040. Next, Europe should prioritise investments in intangible assets and lay down the digital infrastructure that will underpin future growth. Revitalising the single market is also crucial: reducing internal and external market barriers for services, the primary vehicle for trading intangible assets. Moreover, the EU should foster a market environment that encourages entrepreneurship and facilitate the entry and exit of firms so resources cascade towards the most productive sectors. By harnessing the strengths of the single market and implementing these recommendations, European policymakers can propel the EU towards a more competitive and prosperous future.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Productivity, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

92. Protecting Free and Fair Elections: The Vital Role of Public Administration

Author:: Steve Hagerty, Valerie Lemmie, and Nancy Tate
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: Free and fair elections are at the heart of American democracy, and running elections is a core responsibility of public administrators in the United States. The early decades of the 21st Century have been characterized by declining public trust in our nation’s elections, unnecessary barriers to voting, foreign interference, and widespread disinformation. These issues led the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) to include “Protect Electoral Integrity and Enhance Voter Participation” as one of our field’s Grand Challenges in November 2019. To assist the nation with this Grand Challenge, the Academy commissioned a team to conduct a review of electoral practices that can ensure free and fair elections through effective public governance and management. The Academy team developed a shared vision of election administration and identified leading practices for consideration by elected officials and election administrators. The team concluded that effective election administration consists of 3 major pillars: Voter experience, Election security, and Election workforce. The report is offered with the greatest respect for the work that election administrators do in support of a vital part of American democracy. It has been written for a broad audience, including citizens, elected officials, and election administrators.
Topic:: Security, Elections, Voting, and Public Administration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

93. Illusion or Reality: A Recontextualized Perspective of ‘the American Dream’ in Imbolo Mbue’s Behold the Dreamers

Author:: Elizabeth Adesunmbo Omotayo
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:: ‘The American Dream’ motif is one that has been deployed in productions of American literary icons for centuries with different outcomes for the characters portrayed. Despite a plethora of fiction being devoted to the motif from African migrants’ perspective, not many studies have explored the actualization of the Dream by characters in such texts. In Behold the Dreamers (2016), Imbolo Mbue presents the lived experiences of new African diasporans. This study looks at the outcomes of the quest for ‘the Dream’ by Mbue’s characters, through a mimetic reading of her novel and based on Harold Bloom’s notion of ‘Party of Hope’ and ‘the American Nightmare’ as exemplified in the treatments of the Dream motif by several writers. Mbue, while presenting the paradoxical notions of illusion and reality of the Dream, also portrays struggles by both citizens and migrants, to achieve the tangible and intangible of its ideals. Findings reveal that essentialization and discrimination inhibit the attainment of the Dream by many African migrants; that the attainment of college education is a huge factor in the realization of the tangible of its ideals, while the attainment of the intangible seems illusory for many migrants. The conclusion is that several factors prevent the realization of the Dream by many contemporary African migrants.
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Literary Analysis, American Dream, and Motif
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

94. The Security Side of Gulf Visions. Adapting Defence to the Connectivity Age

Author:: Eleanora Ardemagni
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The GCC states are adapting defence strategies to the challenges raised by their “Visions”, their post-hydrocarbon national plans. Far from being just economic programmes, the Visions are broad national transformation platforms displaying also a security dimension, and with many security implications. New cities and industrial poles, infrastructures, mega events and tourism raise unprecedented security risks, at which the GCC states are answering through a combination of economic-oriented foreign policy, multipolar international alliances, and ambitions towards “defense autonomisation”. What are the Visions’ security dimensions and implications, and how does the post-oil path affect and reshape foreign policies? This Report analyses how GCC states are adapting deterrence and defence tools to the connectivity age, navigating a troubled neighbourhood of both conventional and asymmetric threats. In a central but more vulnerable Gulf, how may the EU and NATO accommodate transformations in GCC states’ defense policies, postures, and means, to support their own security?
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

95. Moving Targets. Trends in Japan’s Foreign and Security Policies

Author:: Axel Berkofsky and Giulia Sciorati
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In December 2022, Japan announced it would drastically increase its defence budget by 2027. The decision came as a wake-up call for the whole region: Japan was gearing up for a world of heightened tensions and rivalry in the Indo-Pacific Region. This Report analyses the present and future of Japan’s security and defence policies. Within the context of a rising China, Tokyo has broadened its defence ties with the US, India, Australia, and Taiwan. However, China remains its biggest trading partner, meaning Tokyo's policymakers are charged with the task and challenge of striking a balance between defence policies and business and trade relations with China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, ASEAN, Influence, Defense Spending, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Japan, India, Taiwan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

96. The Sky Is Not the Limit. Geopolitics and Economics of the New Space Race

Author:: Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Space is a contested domain for its very nature and today it is evidently becoming an increasingly important enabler of economic and military power. An increasing number of actors, infrastructures and technologies deployed in space also raises concerns for safety and security, especially in cyberspace. Many countries are striving to achieve space capabilities and autonomous access to space, and this is having a tremendous geopolitical impact, especially since space is emerging as an increasingly critical military and strategic domain. The development of the new space economy, which is increasingly involving the private sector and many industrial actors and services, will also be a game changer for the international economy. The space race likewise implies disruptive technologies that could contribute massively to the energy and digital transitions, accelerating solutions that could benefit humanity. A new international governance system for space is therefore needed urgently, considering that the current rules are no longer able to respond to a sector evolving at such a rapid pace. Which actors are leading the race? Which economic sectors could benefit the most and what could the new space economy mean for the world? How is space emerging as a military domain against a backdrop of increasing international tensions? What would a new system of global governance for space look like?
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, India, Italy, Global Focus, United States of America, and Space

97. Global supply chains: lessons from a decade of disruption

Author:: Luca Léry Moffat and Niclas Poitiers
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This paper explores both the character and impact of three recent shocks to global supply chains: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US-China trade war. These were large shocks which have had significant impacts on domestic and international supply chains, but these impacts have differed in their longevity, economic impact and policy responses. We show that supply chains were remarkably resilient against shocks of such magnitude. However, this resilience was also achieved thanks to the equally remarkable size and scope of policy responses and global supply chain reorganisation. We recommend that pre-emptive policies may be justified to shield households and industry from future shocks. Given the entangled nature of these shocks and that their effects continue to reverberate, we emphasise the need for extensive future research to understand the nature of these shocks and the effectiveness of policy responses.
Topic:: Global Markets, Trade Wars, Trade, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Global Focus, and United States of America

98. A Return to US Casualty Aversion: The 9/11 Wars as Aberrations

Author:: John Mueller
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Impelled by an overwhelming desire to hunt down those who were responsible for the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the United States launched military invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, where it toppled regimes that had little or nothing to do with 9/11. There has been a tendency to see these exercises as misguided elements of a coherent plan to establish a liberal world order or to apply liberal hegemony. However, the warring of the post–9/11 period has been a glaring, extended, and highly consequential aberration. During the quarter century before that, the United States pursued a foreign policy that was far more casualty averse. Over the past decade, the country has moved back to—and appears poised to expand on—that tradition after its exhausting 9/11–induced military ventures that ran such high costs for so few benefits. Moreover, public opinion in the United States is not messianic or in constant search of hegemony or of monsters abroad to destroy. As part of its move back to a more limited military approach, the United States developed—or further developed—a strategy called “by, with, and through” that was particularly evident in its successful military campaign from 2014 to 2019 against the Islamic State. In this, the United States worked with local forces by providing advice, supplies, and intelligence, and by carrying out air strikes while the locals were expected to take almost all of the casualties. Although this approach is hardly new, it seems to have a future and is currently being applied in the war in Ukraine. It might also be applied to deal with a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, 9/11, War on Terror, Casualties, and Military
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

99. Slashing Tax Rates and Cutting Loopholes: Options for Tax Reform in the 119th Congress

Author:: Adam N. Michel
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) marked a significant overhaul of the US tax system. It reduced taxes for individuals and businesses through the end of 2025 and boosted economic growth. However, beginning in 2026, Americans face an automatic tax increase of about 8 percent (more than $400 billion a year). In the context of the debate over the expiration of the TCJA, the next Congress has an unprecedented opportunity to cut tax rates to their lowest level in almost a century. The Cato Institute is putting forth this tax plan that pairs massively pro-growth tax cuts with the elimination of $1.4 trillion worth of annual tax loopholes, corporate welfare, and other special-interest tax subsidies. The plan would reduce the top income tax rate to 25 percent, the capital gains rate to 15 percent, and the corporate rate to 12 percent; enact full expensing for all investments; and repeal the estate tax, alternative minimum tax, and net investment income tax. The more aggressively Congress eliminates loopholes in the tax code and cuts spending, the deeper it can slash tax rates, eliminate the costliest taxes, and boost the economy.
Topic:: Reform, Economy, Economic Growth, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

100. Geopolitics in the Pacific Islands: Playing for advantage

Author:: Meg Keen and Alan Tidwell
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Pacific Islands Countries are leveraging geopolitical rivalries to maximise their development options. But unmanaged competition for influence among key development partners can compromise good governance and privilege geopolitical posturing over local priorities. Australia, the United States, and other traditional donors can capitalise on areas of strength, such as social inclusion and regional and multilateral initiatives. Joint efforts along these lines and the pooling of resources would scale up impact and set higher accountability standards. Despite the risk that higher standards will open gaps for non-traditional donors with less burdensome criteria, there is much long-term value in traditional development partners collaborating in a “race to the top” in meeting the region’s needs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Regional Cooperation, Foreign Aid, Geopolitics, and Donors
Political Geography:: China, Australia, Australia/Pacific, United States of America, and Pacific Islands

« Previous
Next »
1
2
3
4
5
…
15
16

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS