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442. “If we Fall, Others Will Follow”: Organizing to Combat Anti-Haitianism Tomorrow and Beyond
- Author:
- Darlène Dubuisson and Mark Schuller
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The quest for white dominance has required undermining Haiti’s freedom and demonizing its people. A transnational response is necessary to foster solidarity and challenge the notion of U.S. exceptionalism.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Solidarity, Xenophobia, and Racism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America
443. In a Climate of Slander and Hate, Haitian Immigrants Organize Across Borders
- Author:
- Gabrielle Apollon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the face of mounting attacks on Haitian diaspora communities from Springfield to Santo Domingo, immigrants across the hemisphere are coming together to demand protection.
- Topic:
- Diaspora, Immigration, Borders, and Organizing
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America
444. Anti-Haitianism: A Hemispheric Rejection of Revolutionary Blackness
- Author:
- Bertin M. Jr. Louis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- From the United States to the Dominican Republic to the Bahamas, the collective scapegoating and mass deportation of Haitians for political gain lays bare a particular kind of anti-Blackness.
- Topic:
- Migration, Xenophobia, Racism, and Anti-Blackness
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, Dominican Republic, United States of America, and Bahamas
445. Judging disparities: Recidivism risk, image motives and in-group bias on Wisconsin criminal courts
- Author:
- Ludovica Ciasullo and Martina Uccioli
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper studies racial in-group disparities in Wisconsin, which has one of the highest Black-to-White incarceration rate ratios among all U.S. states. The analysis is motivated by a model in which a judge may want to incarcerate more due to three factors: (1) when the defendant has higher recidivism risk and is more likely to commit future crimes; (2) when the defendant is from a different group (anti-out-group preferences); and (3) when the defendant is of the same group but that group is responsible for a majority of crimes (image motives). Further, a judge may have better information on recidivism risk due to two factors: (4) becoming more experienced, and (5) sharing the same group as the defendant. We take these ideas to new data on 1 million cases from Wisconsin criminal courts, 2005-2017. Using a recidivism risk score that we construct using machine learning tools to predict reoffense, we find evidence that judges do tend to incarcerate defendants with a higher recidivism risk (1). Consistent with judge experience leading to better information on defendant recidivism risk (4), we find that more experienced judges are more responsive in jailing defendants with a high recidivism risk score. Looking at racial disparities between majority (White) and minority (Black) judges and defendants, we find no evidence for anti-out-group bias (2). Consistent with image motives (3), we find that when the minority group is responsible for most crimes, minority-group judges are harsher on their in-group. Finally, consistent with judges having better information on recidivism risk for same-group defendants (5), we find that judges are more responsive to the recidivism risk score for defendants from the same group
- Topic:
- Law Enforcement, Courts, Incarceration, Structural Racism, and Criminal Recidivism
- Political Geography:
- North America, Wisconsin, and United States of America
446. Judicial selection and production efficiency: The role of campaign finance
- Author:
- Mayur Choudhary
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the effect of campaign finance on judicial selection and production efficiency. Using the Supreme Court’s surprise verdict in the Citizens United v. FEC case in 2010, which generates exogenous variation in campaign finance laws, I document that the removal of such bans led to a 33% ($ 200,000) increase in the average electoral expenditure of judicial candidates and increased competition in State Supreme Court judge elections. The judicial bench also becomes populated with more business-friendly judges. State courts decide the majority of labor, contract, and administrative law disputes, and the State Supreme Court has the power to set legal precedents. Therefore, shifts in the judicial bench of the State Supreme Court affect the legal environment and the contracting choices of firms and labor. I document that labor productivity measured as value added per worker increased by 8% in treated states with judicial elections. For sectors more reliant on contract enforcement, labor productivity is higher in states with judicial elections. Overall, removing constraints on electoral finance improves competition in judicial elections, the judicial bench becomes more business-friendly, and improves production efficiency due to the alleviation of contract-enforcement frictions.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Elections, Supreme Court, Judiciary, and Campaign Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States of America and North America
447. Migration policy preferences and forms of trust in contexts of limited state capacity
- Author:
- William L. Allen, Matthew D. Bird, Luisa Feline Freier, Isabel Ruiz, and Carlos Vargas-Silva
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- Why do citizens hold different migration policy preferences? US and European evidence suggests political trust matters by raising support for more open policies, attenuating concerns about costs and strengthening beliefs in governments’ implementation abilities. However, this may not hold in countries with limited state capacity. Instead, we argue interpersonal trust placed in policy beneficiaries matters more as citizens circumvent weaker institutions. We test this using conjoint experiments in Colombia and Peru—low-capacity countries experiencing large inflows of forcibly-displaced Venezuelans—that vary aspects of migration policies. Political trust selectively moderates preferences on migrants’ employment rights and numerical limits, contributing novel evidence of boundary conditions for this form of trust. By contrast, greater interpersonal trust is linked to more open preferences across all tested domains. Our results cast doubt on the importance of political trust for migration preferences in contexts of limited state capacity, instead highlighting its partial substitution by interpersonal trust.
- Topic:
- Trust, Migration Policy, and State Capacity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, and United States of America
448. Foreign influence in US politics
- Author:
- Marco Grotteria, Max Miller, and S. Lakshmi Naaraayanan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper documents that foreign lobbying influences US government spending. We introduce a comprehensive dataset of over 230,000 date-stamped, in-person meetings between agents representing foreign governments and individual US legislators, state governors, and employees of US executive agencies from 2000 to 2018. The data suggest that foreign agents meet disproportionately with individuals important for foreign aid and corporate subsidies, like legislators sitting on powerful congressional committees. Foreign agents also maintain connections with legislators even after they depart powerful committees, providing evidence that meetings do not just reflect short-term quid-pro-quo arrangements. Around meetings, foreign countries receive greater amounts of financial aid. Foreign firms whose governments lobby more often also receive larger corporate subsidies from areas the legislators and governors that they meet with represent. Finally, legislators who meet more often with foreign agents receive both monetary and electoral benefits, while we do not find changes in the political contributions they receive or in their probability of re-election, suggesting that legislators are not punished by their constituents for meeting with representatives of foreign countries.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Lobbying, and Foreign Influence
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
449. Los problemas surgidos tras el grave conflicto Israelí-Palestino en Gaza a raíz de los ataques de Hamás del 7 de octubre de 2023
- Author:
- Romualdo Bermejo and Natalia Ordoñez
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Los ataques del 7 de octubre de 2023 por parte de Hamás contra Israel, y las atrocidades cometidas por los milicianos y terroristas de esta organización, pasarán a la historia como un ejemplo de barbarie, por mucho que no todos los Estados los hayan condenado, e incluso tácitamente aprobado. Si para Israel esto ha sido un segundo "Holocausto", para otros Estados y actores se ha ejercido un derecho de "resistencia". Estos ataques han suscitado una dura reacción de Israel y de sus fuerzas armadas sobre la Franja de Gaza, que es criticada por no respetar el Derecho internacional humanitario, dejando de lado el derecho de legítima defensa. En este contexto, ha vuelto la idea de la creación de un Estado palestino, ahora con más ímpetu,
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Hamas, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Two-State Solution
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
450. Stress-Testing State Power: When Governors and Presidents Diverge on Matters of National Security
- Author:
- Carrie Cordero
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- As the end of the first quarter of the 21st century approaches, the United States’ unique federalist system of government is increasingly relevant as it relates to national security and foreign affairs. The activities of federal, state, and local governments are increasingly intertwined with national security issues, which in modern history have been reserved for federal government leadership and responsibility. This trend is observable through the assertion of existing legal authorities by governors, legislative action taken by state legislators, and litigation driven by state attorneys general. There are two main ways that states are increasingly engaging in issues touching national security or foreign affairs. The first is by taking action that does or could potentially impact U.S. national security. This includes actions such as litigating against federal government border security and immigration policy implementation, more assertively exercising National Guard authorities to effectuate homeland security policies or conduct law enforcement activities, or engaging in international trade directly with foreign countries, for example during a global pandemic.1 A second method is by taking action in response to an actual or perceived national security threat. This includes actions such as banning state government employees’ access to TikTok, strengthening election security based on threats as reported by the intelligence community (IC), or limiting foreign investment in a state based on national security concerns.2 In short, the interplay between states and the federal government as it relates to national security is undergoing a shift. As Columbia law professor Matthew Waxman has observed, “The federalist macrostructure of our national security system has changed dramatically during the course of our history, and it will continue to evolve.”3 This trend of increasing federalism contrasts with developments during the second half of the 20th century through the early 21st century, a period characterized by tremendous growth in the federal government’s national security enterprise. Milestones from that era include the 1947 National Security Act, which established the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the accompanying growth of the military and intelligence community enterprise. The post-9/11 era saw additional development, growth, and maturation of federal institutions engaged in national security. This era ushered in a new body of federal law and associated institutions created by those laws. These include the creation of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which concentrated the operations and activities of 22 agencies into one. It also led to the creation of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which provides strategic direction, policy development, and management oversight to the other 17 elements of the intelligence community. Meanwhile, throughout this period, the courts afforded substantial deference to the federal government on national security issues and legal authorities.4 The activities of federal, state, and local governments are increasingly intertwined with national security issues, which in modern history have been reserved for federal government leadership and responsibility. This year, the Securing U.S. Democracy Initiative at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) began analyzing the impact of increasing federalism on national security with the aim of developing recommendations that address certain practical aspects of this trend. Although there are a variety of areas where potential tensions lie at the intersection of state action and national security policymaking, this initial research report from the first year of work focuses on two specific aspects: (1) the assertion of National Guard authorities in a domestic protest scenario, and (2) the potential impact of a social media ban related to foreign malign influence on elections. A common thread through both subject areas includes a current and evolving national security threat of malign foreign influence. To examine these issues, the CNAS Securing U.S. Democracy Initiative developed and ran two scenario exercises in May 2024 to explore how a clash of legal authorities between the federal government and state governments might play out.5 Participants in the scenario exercises included former senior government officials who previously held roles such as agency heads and general counsels, a former member of Congress, former congressional chief counsels, former senior National Guard leadership and operational-level Guard personnel, a state-level former deputy secretary of state, and national and homeland security experts and practitioners. Many of the participants have held more than one professional position relevant to the issues explored in the exercises. The participants were charged with examining fictional scenarios set in October 2024, one month before the U.S. presidential election. The scenarios roughly assumed the real-world American political landscape as it existed in May 2024, which at that time included a president who was also the presumptive Democratic nominee seeking reelection in November. The governors represented in each exercise matched the political party governing that state in the real world. Accordingly, the Texas governor in Scenario 1 is a Republican; the California governor in Scenario 2 is a Democrat. This report provides background and analysis on potential tensions that can emerge between state action and national security decision-making in the context of two separate scenario exercises. The goal of the exercises was to better understand the dynamics and decision-making that might occur when state and federal officials disagree about a matter of national security.6 Participants were advised to consider constitutional, legal, and policy factors relevant to each scenario, and to make decisions based on the role to which they were assigned. This report summarizes these tailored exercises and provides insights that emerged from them. The report then provides policy recommendations intended to mitigate the tensions that the exercises suggest can arise when federal and state authorities diverge on issues of national security that were the subject of the scenarios.
- Topic:
- Government, National Security, Domestic Politics, Federalism, and State Power
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
451. Disorderly Conduct: How U.S.-China Competition Upended the International Economic Order & What the U.S. Can Do to Fix It
- Author:
- Emily Kilcrease and Adam Tong
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- To gauge the health of the U.S.-China economic relationship, one can turn to the words of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who remarked in March 2024 that U.S. “tactics to suppress China . . . [were] reaching a bewildering level of unfathomable absurdity.”1 Rhetorical flourishes may be the one bright spot in the relationship. As tensions rise over economic restrictions and policies on both sides, economic relations have become a worrisome source of instability in the overall geopolitical relationship. The economic relationship has become increasingly dominated by security concerns, and integration is seen as not an opportunity but a risk to U.S. interests and values. The United States must develop a strong, pragmatic strategy for advancing its economic and security interests within the U.S.-China economic relationship, accounting for the fact that the security competition is now playing out across the economic landscape. To inform the development of an effective U.S. strategy for the economic relationship with China in the context of rising securitization, the United States must learn from its past attempts to advance its economic and security interests in the relationship. The first section of this report, “Where have we been?” examines past U.S. approaches, along with the challenges of pursuing similar policies in today’s geopolitical context. The second section, “Where are we going?” distills lessons from these past approaches and defines a new strategy for the United States, offering recommendations to implement it. Broadly speaking, prior U.S. strategies can be divided into two camps. First, the United States sought to bring the People’s Republic of China (PRC) into the rules-based order and incentivize it to be a responsible stakeholder.* When that failed, U.S. strategy pivoted to one of imposing costs on the PRC and taking actions to constrain behaviors that threatened U.S. economic security interests. Within those broad strategies, U.S. policymakers have pursued four main approaches, in differing combinations and intensity, all of which involve associated challenges. They are: Play by the rules: The intention of bringing the PRC into the rules-based international system was to create external pressure that would align PRC actions with U.S. economic and security interests. Key efforts under this approach included the U.S. support for the PRC’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the later U.S. attempts to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty. Challenges for the approach include the fact that rules have a weak ability to constrain state behavior in a geopolitically contested environment where national security risks arise from economic integration. We need to talk: In light of increasing complexity in the bilateral relationship, U.S.-PRC dialogues were intended to identify and advance mutual interests while providing a regular forum to attempt to resolve disputes. This is seen in the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) in the Bush administration and the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in the Obama administration. In other contexts, such as ongoing talks under the Biden administration, dialogues have served primarily to communicate the rationale for U.S. policy actions in an attempt to put a floor under the bilateral relationship.2 Challenges to this approach include that commitments made in a dialogue process may not be enforceable, the meeting can become the deliverable, and the dialogue process cannot alter underlying geopolitical shifts. Defense is the best offense: Defensive approaches relied on domestic U.S. authorities to counter specific harms created by PRC practices and policies. The United States has a wide range of economic tools (e.g., tariffs and trade remedies) as well as national security–based tools (export controls and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States [CFIUS] process for conducting national security reviews of foreign investments), all of which have been used with greater frequency over the past decade. Challenges when using these tools include the disruptive and potentially escalatory nature of defensive approaches, and the lack of clear frameworks to assess the effectiveness of defensive policies. Additionally, relying on unilateral approaches can create friction within potential economic alliances. In the United States, defensive approaches have often suffered from a blending of economic, national security, and values concerns, eroding the legitimacy of the national security argument. Have more friends: These strategies centered on efforts to shape the PRC’s external environment through the negotiation of ambitious trade and investment agreements with major trading partners, with the goal of increasing economic integration with close partners, creating indirect pressure on the PRC to level up to higher standards, and developing common approaches to address concerns with nonmarket economies. Such an approach is challenging because traditional ways of shaping the external environment have not directly addressed securitization of the U.S.-China economic relationship. U.S. domestic political realities impose a considerable constraint on the use of trade policy as a strategic tool.
- Topic:
- Economics, Bilateral Relations, Trade, Strategic Competition, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
452. U.S. Grand Strategy in the Early Cold War: Priorities, Concerns and Policy Actions
- Author:
- Humayun Javed
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- The study aims to identify U.S. concerns and priorities in the immediate post-WWII era while exploring the primary American considerations in formulating a grand strategy during the early Cold War. The paper addresses the question that were Washington’s policy choices during the last stages of the Second World War and early Cold War primarily being driven by Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe. The study is qualitative in nature and uses exploratory research because the existing literature on the early Cold War does not sufficiently explain the rationale for American policymakers to adopt a global role. The research argues that the unmatched extent of U.S. power and influence, along with an ambitious vision to reshape the postwar institutional and security architecture, allowed Washington to formulate a grand strategy for its economic and political footprint in Asia and Europe, where the Soviet Union remained the only standing – yet immensely devastated – victorious power. Moscow’s own traditional insecurities on its western frontier and its considerable strategic influence and vision to shape the political and security landscape in Europe produced U.S.-Soviet tensions as their cooperation due to a common German threat had vanished. Therefore, American leadership was focused on taking global responsibility in the early Cold War to shape postwar international economic and political order in light of the prewar lessons and contain Soviet power and influence from jeopardizing U.S. preeminence on the global stage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Grand Strategy, and Soviet Union
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
453. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future (Session 3)
- Author:
- Peter Krause
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The struggle over normalization and the future of American-Arab-Israeli relations in the MENA region
- Topic:
- International Relations, Normalization, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
454. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future (Session 2)
- Author:
- Peter Krause
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Words Matter: Understanding how Palestinians and Israelis Define, Use, and React to “Charged” Words from Terrorism to Settler, Intifada to Peace
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Peace, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Israeli Settlers, Terminology, and Intifada
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
455. Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching
- Author:
- Katrina Burgess, John Githongo, Prerna Singh, Daniel Ziblatt, and Evan Lieberman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching: Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024. Experts weigh-in on how citizens and leaders from other world regions are viewing the November 5th US election. What do they believe is at stake for their countries and regions? Is America still seen as a model for democracy? How do they view the candidates? SPEAKERS: Katrina Burgess on Latin America. Katrina Burgess is professor of political economy and director of the Henry J Leir Institute of Migration and Human Security at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Her research areas include Latin America, political economy of development, comparative politics, and migration and diasporas. She is the writer and producer of Waylaid in Tijuana, a documentary film that explores US immigration policies. "Courting Migrants: How States Make Diasporas and Diasporas Make State," is one of her award-winning books. John Githongo on Africa. John Githongo hails from Kenya, where he was a journalist and became a leading light in the international Transparency movement. He has held a variety of government, non-government and academic appointments, and was recognized by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the world’s 100 top global thinkers. Among his many posts, he serves as a senior advisor to the Office of the President of South Sudan on governance. He currently resides at the MIT Center for International Studies as its prestigious Robert E Wilhelm fellow. Prerna Singh on Asia. Prerna Singh is the Mahatma Gandhi Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Brown University. Her research interests include the comparative political economy of development; identity politics; and the politics of South Asia and East Asia. Her book, "How Solidarity Works for Welfare: Subnationalism and Social Development in India," analyzes the causes of variations in social welfare institutions and development by focusing on the dramatic divergences in social policies and outcomes across Indian provinces. Daniel Ziblatt on Europe. Daniel Ziblatt is the director of Harvard University's Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies where he is also Eaton Professor of Government at Harvard University. His research focuses on Europe and the comparative study of democracy. His recent book, "Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point," co-authored with Steve Levitsky, provides an analysis of American democracy in comparative perspective. Moderator: Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He conducts research on the political-economy of development, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. He studies the democratic politics of governing ethnically and racially diverse societies, including the challenges of public health, climate adaptation, and ensuring respect for human dignity. Lieberman is the author, most recently, of "Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid."
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, and Kamala Harris
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
456. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future
- Author:
- Peter Krause
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The 2024 U.S. election and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: How the outcome here impacts the situation there
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Kamala Harris
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
457. Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy
- Author:
- Dennis Ross and Melani Cammett
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy: Tuesday, September 24th, 2024. Introduction: Evan Lieberman, Director, Center for International Studies and Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa Moderator: Philip Khoury, MIT Vice Provost and Ford International Professor of History Closing remarks: Karl Reid, Vice President for Equity and Inclusion, Institute Community & Equity Office Speakers: Dennis Ross is the counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He also teaches at Georgetown University’s Center for Jewish Civilization. For more than twelve years, Ambassador Ross played a leading role in shaping US involvement in the Middle East peace process as the US point man on the peace process in both the George H W Bush and Bill Clinton administrations. He also served as special assistant to President Obama and as National Security Council senior director for the Central Region, and as special advisor on Iran to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Melani Cammett is the Clarence Dillon Professor of International Affairs and director of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. She also holds a secondary faculty appointment in the Harvard Chan School of Public Health. Cammett's award-winning books include "Compassionate Communalism: Welfare and Sectarianism in Lebanon" and "A Political Economy of the Middle East." Her current research projects explore "toleration" and reconciliation after ethnoreligious violence, development and identity politics. She has published numerous articles in academic and policy journals, consults for development policy organizations, and serves as a commissioner on the Lancet Commission on Syria.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and United States of America
458. East Africa’s Potential Role in US Graphite Supply Chains
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The impact of the green tech trade war between the United States and China, which began with US semiconductor export controls, is now being felt in other areas. In December 2023, China introduced export controls on graphite, a key element used in the production of noncarbon technologies like batteries and solar panels. The effects were immediate: Chinese graphite exports to the rest of the world declined by 93 percent (by volume) in a single month. Exports to the United States and Japan—which is collaborating with the United States on semiconductor controls—dropped to zero.1 But although China is the largest player, it is not the only graphite producer in town. This Policy Brief assesses the prospects for three Sub-Saharan African countries—Madagascar, Mozambique, and Tanzania—for providing stable supplies of natural graphite to the US market, considering both domestic factors in the three countries and US policies established by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These countries have adequate graphite resources and operators headquartered in Western allies. The problem is that there are significant governance-related challenges in Madagascar and Mozambique and some domestic challenges to incorporating East African graphite into US electric vehicle (EV) supply chains. US critical mineral sourcing policies will need to be modified to facilitate greater involvement of African producers in US graphite supply chains.
- Topic:
- Supply Chains, Electric Vehicles, Critical Minerals, and Graphite
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, East Africa, and United States of America
459. Misconceptions about US Trade Deficits Muddy the Economic Policy Debate
- Author:
- Maurice Obstfeld
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The distrust of openness to the global economy shared by Republican and Democratic leadership derives in part from a faulty premise that persistent US trade deficits have been imposed on the United States by foreign countries and have contributed significantly to US deindustrialization. In fact, the deficits have important domestic sources, and the main drivers of US manufacturing employment decline lie elsewhere. Two theories that blame foreign countries for deficits hold that deficits arose from unfair competition by trade partners or from a “global savings glut.” The author says the first theory is wrong, the second is incomplete, and economic isolationism is not a solution. Trade and current account deficits result generally from an economy’s collective decisions to save and invest. Freer trade does not necessarily raise investment more than saving, and an investment-driven deficit is likely positive for the economy. The years 1998–2001 during and after the Asian financial crisis led to the dollar appreciating and a rise in the US deficit, consistent with the global saving glut theory. But subsequently in the 2000s, foreign capital was not pushed into the United States from abroad; rather it was pulled and the dollar depreciated. The causes were easy financial conditions, a housing bubble, and strong US consumption—trends that ended in a financial crisis. Understanding this history is essential if the United States is to avoid destructive protectionism and other harmful economic policies.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic Policy, Free Trade, Trade Deficit, and Deindustrialization
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
460. Did Supply Chains Deliver Pandemic-Era Inflation?
- Author:
- Phil Levy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief argues that supply chain breakdowns were not a principal cause of pandemic-era inflation. Levy focuses on US trade in containerized goods and shows that, within months of the pandemic’s onset, the quantities of goods delivered in fact increased significantly. The sharp increases in inflation and shipping prices and the accompanying delays and empty shelves in the presence of significantly increased quantities suggest, instead, a large positive demand shock. Goods consumption levels rose sharply and remained elevated into 2023 and beyond, even as shipping delays and price hikes dissipated. The author concludes that, while it may be worthwhile to make supply chains more efficient and aim for increased elasticity of supply, the goal of avoiding inflation and shortages is likely better met through improved demand management.
- Topic:
- Inflation, Trade, COVID-19, Shipping, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America