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381. Soviet Lessons for China Watching

Author:
Ford Hart
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Edited by Jude Blanchette of CSIS and Hal Brands of SAIS, the Marshall Papers is a series of essays that probes and challenges the assessments underpinning the U.S. approach to great power rivalry. The papers will be rigorous yet provocative, continually pushing the boundaries of intellectual and policy debates. In this Marshall Paper, Ford Hart argues that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) political institutions, the CCP’s practical behavior, and continued veneration of Marxism-Leninism in the CCP constitution highlight the Soviet model’s deep influence on Beijing. As such, lessons from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) can help us understand the CCP’s approach to governance today.
Topic:
International Security, Geopolitics, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Soviet Union
Political Geography:
China and United States of America

382. Bretton Woods Institutions: 80 Years and Counting

Author:
Roman Marshavin
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
ON JULY 22, 2024, the world marked the 80th anniversary of the conclusion of the Bretton Woods Conference, which led to the establishment of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. This milestone provides an opportune moment to assess the progress achieved and reflect on future challenges. In 1944, when these institutions were created, the world was vastly different. World War II was still ongoing, but the defeat of Nazism was within reach. Beginning in 1943, consultations were held in Moscow and Washington among the Allies of the anti-Hitler coalition – primarily the US, the UK, and the USSR – regarding the future world order, including its economic dimensions. The Soviet delegation, led by Deputy People’s Commissar for Foreign Trade Mikhail Stepanov, played an active role in these discussions, including the establishment of the UN and financial institutions. It is fair to say that without the USSR’s participation, the creation of the first-ever truly global financial institutions would have been impossible. Archival materials confirm the high level of preparation by Soviet experts and their diplomatic skills, which enabled them to defend several key positions for the country and reflect them in the final documents.
Topic:
World Bank, Institutions, IMF, BRICS, and Bretton Woods
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Soviet Union, United States of America, and Global South

383. Economic Performance in US Fossil Fuel Communities

Author:
Noah Kaufman, Ariane Desrosiers, and Sarah Doctor
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to address the severe threats of climate change requires economic transformations that pose challenges for regions heavily dependent on coal, oil, natural gas, or other carbon-intensive industries. The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas and the fourth-largest producer of coal, and communities across the country depend heavily on fossil fuel industries for jobs, investments, and public revenues that fund schools and other critical services. These communities will need considerable support to successfully navigate a global transition away from fossil fuels, and a better understanding of their local economies will help policymakers design and implement pragmatic support. However, scant evidence exists for such use today. This report, part of the Resilient Energy Economies initiative co-led by the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, uses a novel dataset and case studies to establish a baseline of local economic performance in fossil fuel–dependent communities between 2004 and 2019. This period captures the peak and first decade of decline of the US coal industry as well as the shale revolution that boosted US oil and gas production.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Finance, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

384. Lessons from the Nuclear Waste Negotiator Era of the 1990s for Today’s Consent-Based Siting Efforts

Author:
Matt Bowen
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Nuclear power is being weighed in energy transition plans around the world, as countries seek to replace fossil fuels with low-carbon alternatives while also meeting growing energy demand and maintaining reliability and affordability. When considering extension of existing nuclear reactor licenses as well as approving new ones, there is an ethical obligation for today’s users to develop plans for long-term management of the resulting nuclear waste and not defer its disposition to future generations. In the United States, the federal government is contractually obligated to take ownership of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) produced at power plants, but this has not happened. The one deep geologic repository project named in law by Congress for potential disposal of SNF—Yucca Mountain in Nevada—has reached a stalemate, with Congress appropriating no money to move the project forward since 2010 due to Nevada’s opposition. Negotiations with US states and tribes to host storage and disposal facilities have been sensitive in the past due to both a stigma around nuclear waste and a perception of risk associated with such facilities. A federal “nuclear waste negotiator” role existed in the early 1990s to overcome these difficulties and find a state or tribe willing to host a repository or interim storage facility, though this short-lived, volunteer-based program did not lead to deployment of either. This report, part of a series of publications on nuclear waste policy at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, reveals lessons learned from the experiences of the two prior negotiators that could benefit a recent, congressionally directed effort at the Department of Energy (DOE) to begin a “consent-based” siting program for nuclear waste. Those individuals were authorized to negotiate terms and conditions—including financial and institutional arrangements—with a state or tribe in a written agreement that would then have to be approved by Congress. Importantly, a state or tribe was assured it could explore the potential of hosting a site while retaining the right to withdraw at any time, and if it did proceed, would have a measure of power in setting terms for the project.
Topic:
Negotiation, Nuclear Waste, Inflation Reduction Act, and Consent
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

385. Revisiting GTCC and GTCC-Like Nuclear Waste Disposal in the United States

Author:
Matt Bowen, Maya Lameche, and Marine Gapihan
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
While the United States (US) has facilities that can and do dispose of most low-level nuclear waste (LLW), it does not yet have a viable disposal pathway for two categories of waste: so-called greater-than-class-c (GTCC) nuclear waste, and nuclear waste with characteristics similar to it, or “GTCC-like.” These two categories essentially straddle the United States’ LLW inventory, for which disposal facilities are in operation, and high-level nuclear waste (HLW) inventory, for which no disposal capability exists. GTCC nuclear waste is produced by multiple sources: commercial nuclear power plants, medical procedures, industrial and research activities, and Department of Energy (DOE) missions, including those related to national security and the cleanup of legacy facilities. These activities carry with them an ethical responsibility to dispose of the nuclear waste they generate rather than pass it on to the next generation. Security task forces have also identified the lack of a disposal pathway for sealed sources of GTCC nuclear waste as a concern, given the potential for its theft and use in a dispersal device. This report, part of a series of publications on nuclear waste policy at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA, explores the history of DOE, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and state efforts to develop disposal capabilities for GTCC and GTCC-like inventories. It explains why this gap merits greater attention from policymakers now and identifies measures Congress, the DOE, and the NRC could take, should they decide to address it. US government efforts to develop disposal capabilities for GTCC waste date back to 1985 when Congress made it a federal responsibility. For a time, disposal in the planned repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, was contemplated. But in the absence of appropriations to move that project forward since 2010, the federal government recently issued planning documents that identify generic commercial LLW disposal facilities and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) deep geologic repository in New Mexico as preferred alternatives. Of the commercial LLW disposal facilities in operation, only the WCS facility in Texas has expressed interest in the GTCC disposal mission. The political climate for GTCC disposal in both New Mexico and Texas has darkened in recent years, though, casting doubt on the federal government’s plans. If the US government decides to prioritize the goal of establishing disposal capability for GTCC and GTCC-like nuclear waste, Congress, the DOE, and the NRC could take the following steps to help realize it in the near term.
Topic:
Regulation, Nuclear Waste, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

386. Outlook for Pending Generation in the PJM Interconnection Queue

Author:
Abraham Silverman, Zachary A. Wendling, and Kavyaa Rizal
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The United States is witnessing rapidly growing interest in clean electricity generation, driven by soaring consumer demand for clean energy and the country’s goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In parallel, the time it takes for new, clean generation projects to move from design to execution in the US has lengthened, meaning that the rising interest has not been matched by supply. The country’s largest grid operator, PJM Interconnection (PJM), has experienced the most severe delays and backlog in new generation—projects entering the queue today have little chance of coming online before 2030. It is widely understood that an increasingly lengthy interconnection process, which involves a series of studies and upgrades grid operators must take to ensure projects can connect to the grid safely and reliably, is responsible for this state of affairs. It is not clear how this longer process interacts with other known project development challenges—such as siting and permitting issues, supply chain constraints, and inflationary pressures—and to what extent such interactions may lengthen the timeline for bringing projects online. Understanding these dynamics can help answer critical questions about grid reliability going forward, including whether it will be necessary to delay or cancel the planned retirement of aging fossil fuel-fired generation resources that the new generation is intended to replace. This report attempts to fill this knowledge gap. It presents results of an author-developed survey of those best positioned to understand the impacts of interconnection process delays: project developers in the PJM market. The key finding from the survey is that PJM’s increasingly lengthy interconnection process is exacerbating siting and permitting challenges and leading to knock-on delays in equipment procurement and financing decisions, suggesting the timeline for new generation in this market will likely remain long for the foreseeable future. Given the importance of new entry to keeping prices competitive and maintaining reliability amid the retirement of older fossil resources, PJM will need to find ways to reduce interconnection delays or reconsider when those fossil resources should be retired.
Topic:
Electricity, Carbon Emissions, Connectivity, and Inflation Reduction Act
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

387. A Quantitative Analysis of Variables Affecting Power Transmission Infrastructure Projects in the US

Author:
Lewis (Zhaoyu) Wu, Abraham Silverman, and Harrison Fell
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Upgrading the US electric grid is vital to a successful energy transition. Transmission expansion lowers electricity costs for consumers; speeds deployment of new generation resources; provides economic opportunities for communities; increases system reliability, particularly in the face of extreme weather events; and enables large-scale transfers of power from areas of the country with high renewable energy potential to customers. But experience over the past twenty years has shown that new transmission projects often face extensive delays, impeding or even denying these potential benefits to consumers and communities. In response, policymakers at the state and federal level are considering reforms to transmission finance, cost allocation, siting and permitting, advanced technologies, and other areas to help jumpstart the United States’ currently moribund transmission expansion processes. As part of this process, policymakers and other stakeholders are debating the merits of various transmission planning policies in terms of project success, but the impact of specific variables can be hard to quantify. This can lead stakeholders to rely largely on anecdotal or qualitative arguments to support their positions. The wide variation in the way utilities are regulated and transmission planning processes are implemented across the United States further compounds the difficulty of evaluating the relative effectiveness of different transmission planning policies. This report, a joint project of the Non-Technical Barriers to the Clean Energy Transition Initiative and the Energy Systems Modeling and Analytic Platform at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA, applies a data-driven approach to this policy debate. Using statistical analysis and machine learning models to analyze a dataset from the data company MAPSearch of planned transmission projects of at least 100 kilovolts (kV) conceived between 2005 and 2023, which includes more than 1,300 transmission projects, the report provides a systematic assessment of the impact of key variables on the likelihood that a proposed transmission line will actually be built. The results of this assessment can help those interested in expanding transmission infrastructure understand which variables may be worth prioritizing in a particular geographical area or region, given its unique combination of attributes, needs, and challenges.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Energy Sector, and Transmission
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

388. Health Care for Women: How the U.S. Compares Internationally

Author:
Munira Z. Gunja, Relebohile Masitha, and Laurie Zephyrin
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Recently released federal data once again show the United States with by far the highest rate of maternal deaths of any high-income nation, despite a decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.1 Racial disparities are also extreme: Black women in the U.S. are nearly three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related complications than white women are. But maternal deaths and complications may be an indicator of the nation’s wider failures with respect to women’s health and health care. Compared to women in other high-income countries, American women have long had worse access to the health care they need. While the U.S. spends more on health care than other countries do, surveys regularly find that Americans avoid seeking care because of costs at the highest rates, even as the U.S. continues to lead in the prevalence of chronic disease.2 At the same time, limited access to primary care and inadequate coordination of health services are likely factors in the nation’s poor performance when it comes to the prevention, diagnosis, and management of diseases.3 In this brief, we compare selected measures of health care access and outcomes for women in high-income countries. We drew upon data from four sources: the Commonwealth Fund’s 2023 International Health Policy Survey of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which allowed us to analyze responses by race and ethnicity;4 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Vital Statistics System; the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease. The latter two data sets permitted us to show results on selected measures for five additional countries — Chile, Japan, Korea, Norway, and Sweden. (See “How We Conducted This Survey” for more details.)
Topic:
Women, Public Health, Healthcare System, and Life Expectancy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Australia, and United States of America

389. Mirror, Mirror 2024: A Portrait of the Failing U.S. Health System

Author:
David Blumenthal, Evan D. Gumas, Arnav Shah, Munira Z. Gunja, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Goal: Compare health system performance in 10 countries, including the United States, to glean insights for U.S. improvement. Methods: Analysis of 70 health system performance measures in five areas: access to care, care process, administrative efficiency, equity, and health outcomes. Key Findings: The top three countries are Australia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, although differences in overall performance between most countries are relatively small. The only clear outlier is the U.S., where health system performance is dramatically lower. Conclusion: The U.S. continues to be in a class by itself in the underperformance of its health care sector. While the other nine countries differ in the details of their systems and in their performance on domains, unlike the U.S., they all have found a way to meet their residents’ most basic health care needs, including universal coverage.
Topic:
Development, Public Health, Efficiency, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

390. Boosting Childhood Vaccination Rates Post-Pandemic: Lessons from Five Countries

Author:
Irene Papanicolas, Robert A. Berenson, and Laura Skopec
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Issue: Childhood vaccination rates fell worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, reductions in childhood vaccination were not universal, which may be related to differences in vaccine eligibility, vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine administration programs across countries. Goals: Explore how childhood vaccination rates changed during the COVID-19 pandemic in five high-income countries with varying approaches to vaccine policy. Methods: Surveys of in-country experts and analysis of secondary data sources in Australia, Germany, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Key Findings and Conclusion: While vaccination rates fell worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic, the high-income countries in our study maintained high childhood vaccination rates for polio and measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) near or above the herd immunity threshold (80% for polio and 95% for measles). Australia and Singapore, which have the strictest vaccine requirements, boasted the highest polio vaccination rates in both 2018 and 2021. No countries require the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination nationwide, but Australia, Singapore, and the U.K. have school-based HPV vaccination programs and high vaccination rates. Strong vaccine requirements, combined with school-based immunization or catch-up programs, may help boost childhood vaccination rates where they lagged during the pandemic.
Topic:
Children, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Singapore, and United States of America

391. Finger on the Pulse: The State of Primary Care in the U.S. and Nine Other Countries

Author:
Evan D. Gumas, Corinne Lewis, Celli Horstman, and Munira Z. Gunja
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
For many people, primary care is their first point of contact with the health system, and decades of evidence shows it is critical for population health, health equity, and the overall efficiency of health care systems.1 Primary care is also uniquely positioned to screen for social needs and provide integrated behavioral health services.2 Ensuring people have access to high-quality, comprehensive primary care is vital to good health outcomes and positive experiences with the health system at large. Despite the importance of primary care, health systems around the world are facing challenges at the patient and provider level. Many countries struggle to ensure access to care, or first contact; continuity of care; comprehensiveness of care; and coordination of care. These four core components of high-quality primary care are essential to better overall health outcomes.3 Factors like workforce shortages, physician burnout, and dwindling access for patients, driven in part by underinvestment and growing administrative burdens, pose significant barriers to care.4 To better understand how patient care can be improved in a changing primary care landscape, this brief compares the state of primary care in the United States with nine other high-income nations. It updates an earlier Commonwealth Fund study comparing primary care performance in the U.S. with nine peer countries: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Our data come from the Commonwealth Fund’s 2022 International Health Policy Survey of Primary Care Physicians and the 2023 International Health Policy Survey of adults age 18 and older. The 2022 and 2023 surveys asked different questions of the participating physicians and responding adults, so this edition includes new measures on access to telehealth, preparedness to treat behavioral health conditions, and care coordination. For more details on our methods, see “How We Conducted This Study.”
Topic:
Equity, Primary Care, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, North America, Sweden, Netherlands, New Zealand, and United States of America

392. Insights into the U.S. Maternal Mortality Crisis: An International Comparison

Author:
Munira Z. Gunja, Evan D. Gumas, Relebohile Masitha, and Laurie Zephyrin
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
The United States continues to have the highest rate of maternal deaths of any high-income nation, despite a decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. And within the U.S., the rate is by far the highest for Black women. Most of these deaths — over 80 percent — are likely preventable.1 With policies and systems in place to support women during the perinatal period, several high-income countries report virtually no maternal deaths. As policymakers and health care delivery system leaders in the U.S. seek ways to end the nation’s maternal mortality crisis, these countries may offer viable solutions. This brief updates an earlier Commonwealth Fund study of differences in maternal mortality, maternal care workforce composition, and access to postpartum care and social protections between the U.S. and other high-income countries: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.2 In this edition, we have also included data on Chile, Japan, and Korea — all high-income countries with universal health care systems. For our analysis, we used the most recently available data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), of which the U.S. is a member. Where country-specific data are more than five years old, we note whether more recent published data from other sources are available for that country. Readers should be aware that because the methods we used to derive updated numbers from other sources may be different from methods the OECD uses, data points may not be comparable to the U.S. rates. For complete details on our methods, see “How We Conducted This Study.”
Topic:
Development, Inequality, Public Health, and Maternal Mortality
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, France, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, North America, Sweden, Netherlands, New Zealand, and United States of America

393. Hospital Global Budgeting: Lessons from Maryland and Selected Nations

Author:
Bob Atlas
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Issue: Maryland has utilized hospital global budgeting for a decade, but the approach is rarely used elsewhere in this country. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services now hopes to test global budgeting in more states to help scale up this form of cost containment. Goals: Examine the ways Maryland, Canada, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Norway employ hospital global budgeting and the lessons they offer to those hoping to see wider adoption in the United States. Methods: Analysis of the various health systems and expert interviews. Key Findings and Conclusion: Maryland and the four selected countries vary significantly in their approaches to hospital global budgeting. With its previous experience using price controls and current global budgeting approach, Maryland has succeeded in holding hospital spending growth steady for nearly a decade. While Norway combines fixed and variable payments to support global budgeting, the Netherlands and Canada’s province of Ontario are moving away from global budgeting in favor of other approaches. Meanwhile, New Zealand has added multiyear rolling forecasts and budgets to support its own model. Future approaches in the U.S. could prove more effective by factoring in the complexities, conflicting incentives, and potential unintended consequences of global budgeting.
Topic:
Public Health, Healthcare System, and Budgeting
Political Geography:
Canada, Maryland, Netherlands, New Zealand, and United States of America

394. Digital legislation: convergence or divergence of models? A comparative look at the European Union, China and the United States

Author:
Aifang Ma
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In 1964, when the Canadian pioneer of media studies, Marshall McLuhan, argued that media is an extension of man, he did not foresee that future media, at the beginning of the 21st century, would produce increasingly pernicious effects[1]. While media have indeed extended human capacities, they have also shown to be generators of complicated social and ethical problems. In the same year philosopher, Herbert Marcuse, who analysed relations between Man and Machine from a deeply pessimistic viewpoint. His predictions seem to be corroborated by what we are now experiencing: the easy life made possible by technological progress has progressively gnawed into the individual critical reasoning. Instead of imposing their control over technologies, human beings are increasingly at their mercy. The domination of technology over individuals is all the stronger, since it seems harmless and is pleasant to use. In this context, the regulation of digital technologies[2] is flourishing in autocracies and democracies alike. Its importance goes far beyond the need of authoritarian regimes to cut off the transmission of destabilising content. It is universal since digital technologies set common challenges to national governments: illegal collection of users’ personal data, precarious working conditions for gig workers, monopolistic practices of large platforms, threats to human dignity and domestic security. These problems are causing trouble to all governments around the world. This article aims to be pragmatic. Beyond differences in political regime, it studies the regulatory approaches of the three largest digital economies in the world: China, the United States, and the European Union. The three models can potentially hinder or stimulate the development of digital technologies without necessarily opposing each other.
Topic:
European Union, Media, Legislation, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

395. The European Union between the United States and China: should we choose between equidistance and following?

Author:
Philippe Etienne
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The competition between the world's two major powers structures all international relations and influences the choices made by all other countries. The latter fear the consequences of tensions between the two giants and, in the main, want to avoid having to choose. But the problem is not the same everywhere. To put it simply, China benefits in the "global South" from a certain hostility towards the West, while the United States can play on the fear aroused by the emergence of Chinese power, which no longer hesitates to resort to power relations, especially in Eastern Asia[1]. Against this backdrop, Europe is in a delicate situation. It must contend with its assimilation to the United States as being part of the “West” which is increasingly rejected. Although it shares much with its American ally, particularly the values of democracy and security arrangements, it does not always have the same interests as the United States and must preserve its room for manoeuvre if it is not to be dragged into decisions in which it has no part. Before examining how the European Union is facing up to this challenge, and how it should behave in the future, the driving forces and prospects of the Sino-American rivalry require exploration.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, European Union, Global South, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

396. Investigating the Effect of the U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls on China

Author:
Hyok Jung Kim, Jonghyuk Oh, and Hyuk Hu Kwon
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
his report examines the significant impact of U.S. semiconductor export controls imposed under the Biden administration in October 2022. These controls, which target a broad range of semiconductor manufacturing facilities and AI chips, are part of a strategy aimed at curbing China’s advancement in critical technologies. A notable 32.5% decline in China’s imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment has been observed, particularly in regions with advanced production capabilities and foreign company operations, such as those involving Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. While Korea experienced substantial drops in exports to China, the Netherlands saw an increase, reflecting its dominance in specific technologies like lithography. The AI chip sector has also been affected, with China turning to downgraded chips due to restricted access to high-performance models from companies like Nvidia. South Korea must adapt by strengthening its upstream semiconductor industry, considering reshoring production, and collaborating with international partners to mitigate risks. As U.S. export controls continue to evolve, the global semiconductor industry may face increased fragmentation, making strategic responses from affected nations essential to maintain competitiveness. Additionally, ongoing monitoring and adaptation to the dynamic regulatory environment shaped by these export controls are crucial.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Exports, Artificial Intelligence, Imports, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

397. Export Controls Game: Rethinking Global Integration

Author:
Sangjun Yea
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The article discusses how geopolitical interests are influencing trade policies and global supply chains, leading to a reevaluation of international relationships. The U.S. and China are specifically highlighted, with the U.S. implementing export controls on semiconductors to prevent China's military advancement, while China responds with its own export restrictions on essential raw materials. Using a game-theoretic model, the study illustrates how countries use export control measures to balance security interests and economic benefits, ultimately impacting the global semiconductor supply chain and production decisions of multinational corporations.
Topic:
Exports, Trade Policy, Economic Integration, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

398. Developing an International Macroeconomic Forecasting Model Based on Big Data

Author:
Sang-Ha Yoon
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In the era of big data, economists are exploring new data sources and methodologies to improve economic forecasting. This study examines the potential of big data and machine learning in enhancing the predictive power of international macroeconomic forecasting models. The research utilizes both structured and unstructured data to forecast Korea's GDP growth rate. For structured data, around 200 macroeconomic and financial indicators from Korea and the U.S. were used with machine learning techniques (Random Forest, XGBoost, LSTM) and ensemble models. Results show that machine learning generally outperforms traditional econometric models, particularly for one-quarter-ahead forecasts, although performance varies by country and period. For unstructured data, the study uses Naver search data as a proxy for public sentiment. Using Dynamic Model Averaging and Selection (DMA and DMS) techniques, it incorporates eight Naver search indices alongside traditional macroeconomic variables. The findings suggest that online search data improves predictive power, especially in capturing economic turning points. The study also compares these big data-driven models with a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. While DSGE offers policy analysis capabilities, its in-sample forecasts make direct comparison difficult. However, DMA and DMS models using search indices seem to better capture the GDP plunge in 2020. Based on the research findings, the author offers several suggestions to maximize the potential of big data. He stresses the importance of discovering and constructing diverse data sources, while also developing new analytical techniques such as machine learning. Furthermore, he suggests that big data models can be used as auxiliary indicators to complement existing forecasting models, and proposes that combining structural models with big data methodologies could create synergistic effects. Lastly, by using text mining on various online sources to build comprehensive databases, we can secure richer and more real-time economic data. These suggestions demonstrate the significant potential of big data in improving the accuracy of international macroeconomic forecasting, particularly emphasizing its effectiveness in situations where the economy is undergoing rapid changes.
Topic:
GDP, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

399. The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24

Author:
John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson assess whether US allies and partners in Europe can continue providing military assistance to Ukraine or expand assistance, while preserving their own national security and fulfilling their NATO commitments. They also explore what the Russia-Ukraine War reveals about the role of European allies in future iterations of strategic competition. Their findings indicate European allies remain firmly in support of assisting Ukraine politically, even if the reasons for allied support vary across Europe. Despite agreeing support is necessary, European allies face several hurdles on the path toward scaling up military assistance to Ukraine. The reasons for the hurdles vary, and some exceptions exist, but Deni and Aronsson find without continued, sustained US engagement, leadership, and presence in Europe, Washington may find itself with few European allies by its side. To facilitate and sustain continued success in transatlantic burden sharing, the authors provide several practical recommendations for US policymakers to consider.
Topic:
NATO, Military Aid, Allies, Russia-Ukraine War, Security Cooperation, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

400. Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.: Central Pacific Theater Army Commander for Admiral Chester W. Nimitz 1943–45

Author:
James D. Scudieri
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph analyzes Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.’s service as de facto theater Army commander to Admiral Chester W. Nimitz from August 1943 to June 1945. It focuses on the theater-strategic level when Richardson led US Army Forces in Central Pacific Area and US Army Forces, Pacific Ocean Areas. This study highlights the context of Richardson’s operating environment beginning with prewar plans, the realities of early wartime defeats, and the state of joint operating procedures. It assesses Richardson’s accomplishments in exercising Landpower in the Pacific, across the entire range of today’s Army war-fighting and Joint functions and discusses the implications of posturing for large-scale combat operations in competition, crisis, and conflict. These assessments are relevant to US Army Pacific today in its four current roles of Theater Joint Force Land Component Command, Combined Joint Task Force, Combined Joint Force Land Component Command, and Army Service Component Command.
Topic:
History, World War II, Military, and Robert C. Richardson Jr.
Political Geography:
North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America