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2. United States of America: Briefing sheet
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, Outlook, and Briefing sheet
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
3. United States of America: Political structure
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, and Political structure
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4. Are Immigrants a Threat? Most Americans Don’t Think So, but Those Receptive to the “Threat” Narrative Are Predictably More Anti-immigrant
- Author:
- PRRI Staff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Joe Biden campaigned on a commitment to reverse many of the Trump administration’s strictest anti-immigration policies. Though many of these policies have either been reversed or halted — including the travel ban for people from various countries, the ban on temporary work visas, and the expansion of the public charge rule, among others —some remain in place.[1] One such policy is a public health rule known as Title 42, which allows for the immediate expulsion of migrants at the border in order to control the spread of COVID-19. The rule was set to be lifted in late December, but its suspension was delayed by the Supreme Court owing to public backlash and fears that illegal border crossings would increase significantly.[2] Meanwhile, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis have proposed legislation that would both extend Title 42 and provide a pathway to citizenship for two million people who were illegally brought to the United States as children and are now classified as “Dreamers.” The proposal also includes new resources to speed the processing of asylum seekers.[3] As politicians struggle with how to address immigration issues, Americans’ views on immigration have become increasingly polarized, with Republicans becoming significantly more anti-immigrant in their attitudes over the past few years. Republicans have continually attacked the Biden administration’s handling of immigration, claiming that his policies will increase the flow of immigrants over the southern border and calling for U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas to resign. These criticisms are expected to increase now that Republicans have regained control of the House of Representatives.[4] Though the Trump-era narrative still resonates among certain portions of the American public, this report reveals that majorities of Americans do not view immigrants as a threat. But people who are more likely to think of immigrants as a threat — including those who most trust conservative media sources and Fox News — they are considerably more anti-immigrant and less supportive of open immigration policies.
- Topic:
- Politics, Immigration, Border Control, and Nativism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5. The Two Faces of American Freedom
- Author:
- Aziz Rana
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- Professor Rana situates the American experience within the global history of colonialism, examining the intertwined relationship in U.S. constitutional practice between internal accounts of freedom and external projects of power and expansion. In the process, he reinterprets the American political tradition from the colonial period to modern times, placing issues especially of race, immigration, and national security in the context of shifting notions of empire and citizenship.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, Race, Citizenship, Colonialism, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
6. US-China lessons from Ukraine: Fueling more dangerous Taiwan tensions
- Author:
- John K. Culver and Sarah Kirchberger
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The lessons that Washington and Beijing appear to be learning from Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and from Ukraine’s resistance and counteroffensive, could set the stage for a crisis over Taiwan in the next few years. This grim prospect is driven by the United States and China arraying themselves for a strategic rivalry since 2017 through the continuing trade war, economic decoupling, and increasing rhetorical and military positioning for confrontation over Taiwan. In light of the Chinese military’s threatening gestures, belligerent rhetoric, and other recent actions that read like they could be preparation for war, there is a danger that the successive warnings by senior US military commanders that Chinese CCP General Secretary and President Xi Jinping has already decided to use military force in the near term could become the proverbial tail wagging the dog — and could impose a logic that makes a US-China war more likely, rather than enhancing deterrence.1 Therefore, the key question for the United States and its allies is how an increasingly truculent and belligerent Chinese leadership can be incentivized to walk back from the brink. This paper examines what lessons China, the United States, and European allies have drawn from the Ukraine conflict and how such lessons have shaped these actors’ strategic assumptions. It concludes with a discussion of policy recommendations for the transatlantic community confronting the possibility of a US-China conflict over Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
7. Humanitarian aid: Defining new areas of US-LAC collaboration
- Author:
- Pepe Zhang and Isabel Bernhard
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The US humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) system—well practiced and extensively developed—could further serve US and partners’ needs in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and beyond through targeted improvements. Based on our experience as HADR practitioners with operational and academic expertise, we share insights from many years of working with partners in the Americas. The task is urgent: fragile governments and organizations further impacted by COVID-19 and climate change have exposed HADR deficiencies that need to be rapidly strengthened. Redoubling the US’s HADR commitment to allies and partners can also have strategic benefits during a period of renewed competition with the People’s Republic of China. We believe that the United States can strengthen its HADR work globally, and particularly with LAC countries, through partnership and relationship building as well as education and exercises. By deepening its strengths and address- ing room for improvement, the United States can remain the partner of choice for LAC countries and conserve its positional advantage over China and other strategic competitors. How can LAC and partner nations (such as the United States), nongovernmental organizations, and regional and other global organizations strengthen their abilities to respond to natural disasters? What can the United States do to improve its disaster preparedness and response in LAC? And what can Washington learn from Beijing’s approach to disaster assistance in LAC? In crafting this report to address these questions, we drew from a roundtable discussion, verbal and written consultations with subject matter experts, and written material. A full description of the methodology is provided in the appendix. The findings of the report include eight recommendations grouped under two mutually complementary areas: (1) partnership and relationship building, and (2) education and exercises. Not only are these recommendations timely and relevant for HADR practitioners, but taking these steps would strengthen Western hemispheric security by investing in the region’s infrastructure and human capital. As the United States and its LAC partners consider future room for cooperation and collaboration, HADR work will form an indispensable centerpiece of their strategies.
- Topic:
- NATO, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, Politics, Partnerships, Resilience, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- China, Latin America, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America
8. Implementing NATO’s Strategic Concept on China
- Author:
- Hans Binnendijk and Daniel S. Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Set against the backdrop of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the June 2022 Madrid NATO Summit set the tone for the next decade of the Alliance’s shared future. Allies made it clear that they consider Russia their most immediate and direct threat. Yet they also made headlines by addressing challenges emanating from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Allies laid out actions to be taken across the diplomatic, economic, and military spheres. Now the Alliance must implement those responses. Beijing will be watching closely.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Politics, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Eurasia, Canada, Asia, and United States of America
9. China and the new globalization
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The unitary globalized economy no longer exists. Driven in significant part by security considerations, a new and more diverse globalization is both required and being built. The transition is ongoing, and its final form is yet to be determined. Many of the causal factors for this very significant change revolve around China and the consequent responses to its actions by the United States, other democracies of the transatlantic alliance, and the advanced democratic economies of the Indo-Pacific. There are other important factors generating this new globalization including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war both on energy markets and on trade and investment with Russia generally, as well as the global requirements for mitigating and adapting to climate change. However, China has been a critical element in what might be described as the “maximum trade-centered globalization,” which has dominated trade and investment policy in the three decades since the end of the Cold War. This issue brief describes the still-developing new globalization focusing on the issues surrounding China. A fundamental challenge that China presents arises because its actions have generated significant security and economic challenges, yet it nonetheless is a massive trade and investment partner for the “advanced democratic economies” (ADEs),1 which for purposes of this analysis include the Group of Seven (G7) countries,2 plus Australia, Norway, the Republic of Korea, and the European Union. Adapting to a new globalization requires establishing a strategic approach that resolves the inherent contradictions between those conflicting considerations.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Economy, Business, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Eurasia, Canada, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
10. Authoritarian kleptocrats are thriving on the West’s failures. Can they be stopped?
- Author:
- Francis Shin and Ben Judah
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A hidden web of power revealed itself to Internet users in early 2022. Following a brutal government crackdown in Kazakhstan in January, anyone using open-source flight-tracking websites could watch kleptocratic elites flee the country on private jets. A little more than a month later, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought a new spectacle: social media users were able to track various oligarchs’ superyachts as they jumped from port to port to evade Western sanctions. These feeds captured a national security problem in near real time: In Eurasia and beyond, kleptocratic elites with deep ties to the West were able to move themselves and their assets freely despite a host of speeches by senior officials, sanctions, and structures designed to stop them. Kleptocratic regimes—kleptocracy means “rule by thieves”—have exploited the lax and uneven regulatory environments of the global financial system to hide their ill-gotten gains and interfere in politics abroad, especially in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. They are aided in this task by a large cast of professional enablers within these jurisdictions. The stronger these forces get, the more they erode the principles of democracy and the rule of law. Furthermore, the international sanctions regime imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine has little hope of long-term success if the global financial system itself continues to weaken. The West still has a long way to go to rein in the authoritarian kleptocrats who have thrived on the institutional dysfunction, regulatory failure, and bureaucratic weakness of the transatlantic community for far too long. We need to rethink not just how we combat kleptocracy, but also how we define it. Policy makers need to understand that authoritarian regimes that threaten transatlantic security are closely linked to illicit financial systems. As it stands, our thinking about how foreign corruption spreads is too constrained by stereotypes about kleptocratic goals and actions.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Diplomacy, Intelligence, Politics, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Economy, Rule of Law, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, Canada, and United States of America
11. United States of America: Political and institutional effectiveness
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
12. United States of America: Political forces at a glance
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
13. United States of America: Political and institutional effectiveness
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
14. United States of America: Political forces at a glance
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
15. United States of America: Political and institutional effectiveness
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
16. United States of America: Political forces at a glance
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
17. US Trade Policy Options for Pacific Islands States Require Washington’s Political Commitment
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Pacific Islands have emerged as a zone of contestation in the ongoing rivalry between China and the United States. While the US has long been the dominant military power in the region, China is raising its profile through activities like port visits, military exercises, and establishing diplomatic and security ties with regional states like Kiribati and the Solomon Islands. In 2018, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Papua New Guinea for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. President Biden was supposed to visit PNG in May 2023, in the first ever visit of a sitting US president to the Pacific Islands, but that trip was scuttled due to the debt ceiling fiasco in Washington. In the economics sphere, the US has attempted to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) together with Japan and Australia through the Blue Dot Network and the Indo-Pacific Infrastructure Trilateral to promote high-quality, transparent, and sustainable infrastructure development. The region contains considerable natural resources, and the US has been working with Pacific Island nations to promote sustainable resource management, in contrast to China’s alleged illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing in the Pacific. What has been missing, however, is a trade policy component to the US strategy to counterbalance China’s exploration of a free trade agreement with the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Trade Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, North America, United States of America, and Pacific Islands
18. Sustaining Congressional Engagement with Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Erik Ashida
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- As a representative institution whose members can outlast presidential administrations, Congress plays a vital role in sustaining long-term US foreign policy commitments. The perception of long-term commitment is particularly important in Southeast Asia, where most states seek to maximize their strategic autonomy by balancing relations among great powers. Thus, expectations about the future behavior of great powers can significantly affect foreign policy choices. Congress speaks through the exercise of its formal powers but also in more subtle ways. Congressional actions on foreign relations operate along three channels. The first channel is support for policies initiated by the executive branch, e.g., passing appropriations, making requested statutory changes, or, at the very least, not obstructing what an administration seeks to do. The second channel is symbolic support for a relationship, such as meetings with foreign officials or public statements of support. Though these actions are generally nonbinding, they can be a more meaningful gauge of support than the first channel because legislators must seek them out and can define the terms of their engagement—something not always possible when voting on legislation. The third channel is policy advanced independently from the executive branch, such as standalone bills, conditions placed on funding, or rigorous oversight. Each of these tools is available to individual legislators, groups of legislators such as caucuses or committees, or the entire legislative branch acting collectively.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
19. Korea Matters for America/America Matters for Korea (2023)
- Author:
- East-West Center
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The 4th edition of Korea Matters for America/America Matters for Korea, part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and South Korea at the national, state, and local levels. This publication and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-Indo-Pacific relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Population, Public Health, and Travel
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
20. Japan Matters for America/America Matters for Japan (2023)
- Author:
- East-West Center
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The 4th edition of Japan Matters for America/America Matters for Japan, part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and Japan at the national, state, and local levels. This publication and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-Indo-Pacific relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Population, Public Health, and Travel
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
21. Abrogating the Visiting Forces Agreement: Its Effects on Philippines’ Security and Stability in Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Renato Acosta
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- During much of 2022, the defense and security alliance between the United States of America and the Philippines, anchored on and reinforced by the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT, teetered on the brink of collapse. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte brought relations to the brink through attempts to scuttle the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). This move would only embolden Chinese challenges to Manila’s territorial integrity and its aspirations to dominate Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. While the Duterte administration recited parochial reasons to terminate the VFA, pundits from the security and diplomatic sectors viewed Duterte’s attempts as a pretext to steer the Philippines towards China under his own brand and definition of an independent foreign policy. During his term, Duterte reiterated that President Xi Jinping and other Chinese officials were his friends. He also publicly declared that the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG), a northeastern section of the Spratly Islands, was already in physical control and possession of Beijing due to the unchallenged presence of its military and maritime militia vessels there. Given these statements, Duterte has constantly received criticism over his defeatist stance towards China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Politics, Armed Forces, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- China, Philippines, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
22. Understanding the Rohingya Crisis
- Author:
- Nasir Uddin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In consideration of their stateless status in Myanmar, prolonged refugeehood in Bangladesh, and their ongoing vulnerable position of the Rohingya, they are known as the world’s most persecuted minority. Despite living in Arakan/Rakhine state for centuries, Myanmar's Citizenship Law in 1982 rendered the Rohingya stateless as it conferred citizenship to 135 ethnic groups excluding the Rohingya. In 1978, Burmese security forces started Operation Nagamin, which produced the first Rohingya influx to Bangladesh (about 250,000). The second influx occurred in 1991-92 (about 200,000). Then, some 360,000 Rohingyas were repatriated to Bangladesh under an agreement brokered by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Even after the UN agreement, the third influx started in 2012 (125,000), and the fourth in 2016 (87,000). However, the Rohingya crisis reached a critical stage in 2017 when Burmese security forces launched the deadly Clearance Operation campaign as a ‘counter-insurgency’ measure against the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). The Clearance Operation displaced 740,000 Rohingyas, killed 10,000, raped 1900 girls/women, and completely/partially burned 400 Rohingya villages in Rakhine state. Considering the intense brutality of the campaign, the UN Human Rights Commissioner termed it a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing,” and the US declared it a “genocide.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Refugees, Ethnic Cleansing, and Rohingya
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh, North America, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and United States of America
23. Protecting Democracy Online in 2024 and Beyond
- Author:
- Megan Shahi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- This new report specifically anticipates risks to and from the major social media platforms in the 2024 elections, continuing CAP’s work to promote election integrity online and ensure free and fair elections globally. The report’s recommendations incorporate learnings from past elections and introduce new ideas to encourage technology platforms to safeguard democratic processes and mitigate election threats. In a world without standardized global social media regulation, ensuring elections are safe, accessible, and protected online and offline will require key actions to be taken ahead of any votes being cast—both in 2024 and beyond.
- Topic:
- Politics, Science and Technology, Elections, Democracy, Social Media, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, India, Global Focus, and United States of America
24. House in disorder: How Europeans can help Palestinians fix their political system
- Author:
- Hugh Lovatt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Thirty years after the Oslo accords, Israel’s annexation of Palestinian territory is entrenching open-ended conflict and what is increasingly recognised as apartheid. A third intifada is simmering in the West Bank amid expanding Israeli military raids, growing settler violence, and the resurgence of Palestinian armed groups. Conflict in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is further destabilising Gaza and southern Lebanon, risking a serious interlocking regional crisis. A weak and unpopular Palestinian Authority, combined with deepening rivalries among Palestinian leaders and factions, are increasing Palestinian political dysfunction, and exacerbating instability. Confronting Israel’s international law violations remains key. But Europeans can help mitigate negative dynamics by leveraging their funding relationship with the PA to revive Palestinian institutions and reverse the PA’s authoritarian slide. The EU should work with Gulf monarchies to reconfigure post-Abraham accords diplomacy in support of Palestinian rights and national representation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, Institutions, and Palestinian Authority
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
25. United States of America: Political and institutional effectiveness
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
26. United States of America: Political forces at a glance
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
27. Dominating the Superpower: A Bounded Rationality Approach to Nuclear Proliferation and Inhibition in the U.S. / North Korea Dyad
- Author:
- Sercan Canbolat and Stephen Benedict Dyson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- Why was the United States, despite its overwhelming superiority in power, unable to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons? Why did North Korea persist in its nuclear pursuit in the face of U.S. opposition? In this article, we represent nuclear proliferation and counter-proliferation as situations of subjective strategic interaction between states. We measure preferences over strategies and outcomes using operational codes of the leaders of each country, derived via linguistic analysis. Our results indicate that neither the U.S. nor North Korea accurately understood the other side’s preference ordering, and that their operational codes interacted in such a way as to produce an outcome favorable to North Korea – the weaker party - and unfavorable to the U.S. – the stronger. The wider contribution is to show that (mis)perceptions of the goals and resolve of the opponent play a crucial role in the success or failure of strong states to compel weak states and vice versa.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Leadership, and Perception
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
28. Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies
- Author:
- Merve ÖZDEMİRKIRAN-EMBEL, B. Toygar Halistoprak, and Michael Young
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Leadership, Donald Trump, and Political Beliefs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and United States of America
29. Tackling Russian Gray Zone Approaches in the Post-Cold War Era
- Author:
- Ryan Burkholder
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- To undermine U.S. military strength, state actors are increasingly operating in the ambiguous environment between peace and war known as the “gray zone.” These actions test U.S. response by exploiting the West’s rigid notion of conflict. Soviet actions toward the United States and other nations during the Cold War shared many similarities with contemporary Russian strategy. There is no current uniform definition of the gray zone, and the United States has not developed doctrine to address this challenge. Russia has adapted Soviet Cold War techniques for the digital and globalized age and effectively integrates instruments of power against the United States by targeting seams within culture, maintaining ambiguity, and controlling narratives. Countering these tactics requires that the United States modify its mindset toward conflict and improve integration of its own instruments of power.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Politics, Conflict, Gray Zone, and Hybrid Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
30. Climate Action, Geopolitical Risks and Strategic Policy: The Western Race to Secure Critical Raw Materials
- Author:
- Salvatore Finizio
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Climate action, economic competition and geopolitical shifts are more intertwined than ever. In the wake of the skyrocketing inflation and deteriorating China relations, United States President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law on 16 August 2022. Conceived as the foundation of the new US industrial policy, the IRA aims to rebuild the country’s industrial capacity, including 500 billion US dollars in new spending and tax breaks, among which almost 400 billion aimed at boosting clean energy.[1] Across the Atlantic, the European Union expressed concerns about the potential loss of industrial competitiveness resulting from the IRA. In response, the EU unveiled its own Green Deal Industrial Plan (GDIP) in February 2023.[2] The objective of this plan is to promote the enhancement of net-zero manufacturing capacities in order to meet the EU’s climate targets. Both the IRA and the GDIP have a common goal of reducing dependence on China, especially in clean technology, although through different approaches. The US focuses on bringing high-value production back to its shores, while the EU aims to develop and diversify supply chains.[3] This divergence is also reflected in the debate between “decoupling” and “derisking”, with the latter recently gaining prominence as policymakers recognise the challenges of completely reshoring supply chains domestically.[4] The US and the EU share industrial and geoeconomic objectives, but will also encounter similar challenges, in particular concerning the first stages of green supply chains. Despite their heterogeneous approaches, Western policymakers will in fact have to secure critical raw materials for clean technology manufacturing, with the aim of resourcing the energy transition.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, European Union, Institutions, Energy, and Raw Materials
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
31. China’s Role in Korean Security Issues
- Author:
- Gordon G. Chang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- China’s great power over North Korea eroded when COVID-19 control measures ended most trade with the Kim regime. Moreover, China’s conflicts with various countries mean Beijing cannot afford to alienate any friend, and Kim Jong Un knows that. Beijing is still influential in Seoul, but it lost much of its clout when the conservative-leaning candidate prevailed in the March 2022 presidential election. China will also suffer a loss in standing because it is paying less attention to Korean affairs and is closing itself off to the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Elections, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
32. United States of America: Political and institutional effectiveness
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
33. United States of America: Political forces at a glance
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
34. Imperial Chutzpah in World Politics as a Factor in International Relations Today
- Author:
- Yu Sayamov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- IMPERIAL chutzpah as a phenomenon of international relations has been known since antiquity. It stems from the fact that, as the great Ancient Greek philosopher Thucydides put it back in the 5th century BC: “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must” [1]. Throughout history, the phenomenon of imperial insolence has invariably manifested itself in world politics and diplomacy as a destructive factor that has provoked wars, conflicts, and other calamities. However, one-sided gains and preferences that states on the road of imperial insolence expected to acquire (and did acquire) by disregarding the legitimate interests of other peoples and international security turned out to be fairly limited in the context of history and, in the final analysis, contributed to the downfall of the empire. Imperial arrogance, as embodied in American foreign policy, should never escape our attention and deserves very serious analysis. As an important factor of international relations, it should be resolutely rebuffed by any state that cherishes its sovereignty and seeks to preserve it.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Imperialism, Politics, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
35. The politicized pandemic: Ideological polarization and the behavioral response to COVID-19*
- Author:
- Gianluca Grimalda, David Pipke, Fabrice Murtin, and Louis Putterman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- We investigate the relationship between political attitudes and prosociality in a survey of a representative sample of the U.S. population during the first summer of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that an experimental measure of prosociality correlates positively with adherence to protective behaviors. Liberal political ideology predicts higher levels of protective behavior than conservative ideology, independently of the differences in prosociality across the two groups. Differences between liberals and conservatives are up to 4.4 times smaller in their behavior than in judging the government’s crisis management. This result suggests that U.S. Americans are more polarized on ideological than behavioral grounds.
- Topic:
- Politics, Ideology, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
36. Politics, War and Eastern Mediterranean Gas
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the past two months, there have been several significant, interlocking developments regarding Eastern Mediterranean gas. In January, the Biden Administration withdrew American support for the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek EastMed gas pipeline. In February, U.S. officials shuttled between Israel and Lebanon for another round of talks to resolve the question of the maritime border and the exclusive rights to exploit gas in their disputed waters. Most importantly, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began in late February, has transformed the long-discussed European need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas (and oil) into an urgent priority. It has also exposed the disconnect between optimistic policies that anticipated an imminent shift to renewable resources and the reality that the developed world will, in the short- to medium-term, remain dependent on fossil fuels. Confronted with this new reality, does Europe's need to rapidly diversify its sources of energy increase the strategic value of Eastern Mediterranean gas? And can the Eastern Mediterranean contribute meaningfully to reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Politics, War, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, and United States of America
37. 'Win Without Fighting': The Chinese Communist Party's Political and Institutional Warfare Against the West
- Author:
- John Lee and Lavina Lee
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- When compared to Western forms of diplomatic conversation and strategic discussion, phrases emanating from Beijing and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can appear peculiar, platitudinous, and so ambiguous as to be devoid of practical content. China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping speaks frequently about a ‘community of shared future,’ a ‘common destiny for mankind’ as part of his ‘China dream,’ or of his country’s ‘rejuvenation.’ He promises to pursue and achieve a ‘new type of great-power relations’ with the United States that will ‘expand the converging interests of all and build a big global family of harmony and cooperation.’ Yielding to the temptation to dismiss these phrases as glib and meaningless or as empty promises to the world would be a serious mistake. Emerging as the victorious side after the world was reshaped in the aftermath of the Second World War, and, more recently, the formal end of the Cold War, the United States and its allies have generally enjoyed dominance in all forms of power. The challenge and threat of China is largely understood in the context of its increase in material power, which is relatively easy to understand and quantify. In contrast, far less attention is being paid to non-material power, which is, admittedly, more nebulous and difficult to assess. However, China’s focus has been on relentlessly building its ‘comprehensive national power’ (CNP), that is, the sum-total of its powers and strengths—economic, military affair, science and technology, education, and resource—and influence. Thus, CNP encompasses both material and non-material power, and China’s buildup of both of these forms of power best explains its strategic and diplomatic successes. Chinese ‘rejuvenation’ is also not just about building GDP or having the world’s largest naval fleet. Rather, the CCP’s vision of a ‘community of shared future for mankind’ is very much about displacing the dominance enjoyed by the US and other advanced democracies in shaping global discourse and conversations, norms and standards, and influence within and through institutions. The advanced democracies have taken these less obvious forms of power for granted, a complacency that Beijing has exploited. As the CCP recognizes, “In the final analysis, the rise of a great power is a cultural phenomenon. It (that power) must be accepted by the international community. Be accommodated by the international system, rely on the international system, and be recognised by international norms.” To be sure, there is a rich and growing literature on the CCP’s various information, influence, and institutional resources and activities, and this report does not seek to reproduce the excellent work already in the public domain. Rather, it begins from the uncomfortable but growing realization that the CCP believes it has long been at war with the US and its allies, even though kinetic force has been used in only a few instances. It looks at why this war is being waged, what the hallmarks of success for Beijing look like, and how the use of non-material strategies in the form of political and institutional warfare complements and augments China’s better known material approaches in the CCP’s determined attempts to win this ongoing war or struggle. The report seeks to emphasize that, in understanding the challenge and threat of China, political and institutional warfare should not be treated as optional or interesting adjuncts to traditional notions of warfare or that their effects are peripheral to core strategic and even military objectives. On the contrary, non-material approaches are essential to the Chinese strategy and have real-world outcomes that are often the same ones that the use of force or economic coercion is intended to achieve. Just as the CCP views comprehensive power as encompassing material and non-material elements, its notion of waging and winning a war may or may not include a military element. We need to do the same when countering, deterring, and, if necessary, defeating Chinese strategies and actions. Moreover, the CCP’s approach is not just about putting its views forward in overt or veiled ways in the hope that it will change our minds about various issues. Instead, Beijing’s strategy is much more proactive and profound than that. The CCP’s political and institutional approaches are about fundamentally changing and shaping even the way we begin to think about or analyze an issue or what we perceive to be its ‘first principles.’ It is designed to shape the way we talk (or do not talk) about an issue, the presumptive and analytical frameworks we employ to do so, and the discourse regarding it that is accepted and deemed acceptable. At first glance, such a deeply cognitive approach might seem fanciful and impossible to implement. However, this report offers two recent case studies of instances where the CCP enjoyed considerable success in melding the material and the cognitive—with tangible and real-world results. This report then offers a summary of the real-world strategic effects and their impacts on the tactical decision-making of countries and their elites that should concern those in charge of our political, economic, military, and diplomatic policies and activities. In conclusion, it suggests some general responses to the CCP’s strategy, approach, and actions in these contexts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Economy, Institutions, Strategic Competition, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
38. France Should Embrace the Transatlantic Relationship—and Help Lead It
- Author:
- Angélique Talmor
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- French President Emmanuel Macron’s assertion three years ago that the transatlantic alliance was “braindead” rings as utterly misguided today.1 The resurgence of war in Europe has reinforced NATO’s raison d’être and forced Europeans to face the fact that there is no realistic alternative to transatlantic cooperation. Further, more European policy leaders recognize China’s increasing threat,2 which bolsters the case for Western “friend shoring” on defense and other issues. This process will require leadership on both sides of the Atlantic. France, the largest military power in the European Union and the second-largest EU economy, is more reluctant to embrace Atlanticism than most of its NATO counterparts. This hesitance risks limiting the success and scope of efforts to reinforce transatlantic cooperation. Nonetheless, in the evolving geopolitical context, France’s best shot at preserving its interests and influence would be through embracing Atlanticism and helping lead the reinforcement of transatlantic cooperation in the realm of defense and beyond. American policymakers should encourage and extend a hand to their oldest ally to embrace such a shift.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, North America, and United States of America
39. A German Tocqueville? The Unrecognized Importance of Francis Lieber’s Letters to a Gentleman in Germany, or The Stranger in America
- Author:
- Joshua Waechter
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Humanitas
- Institution:
- The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
- Abstract:
- “No German I know could have analyzed public life as I have done, having had the advantage of a practical citizen’s life for many years, in a vast republic.”1 Francis Lieber, the stocky, thick-accented German to whom this bold statement belonged, was basking in the positive reception of his recently published Manual of Political Ethics. He considered himself—along with his friend Alexis de Tocqueville—as one of a select few gifted with special insight into a nation’s political life. Joseph Story praised Lieber as even greater than Tocqueville, saying “‘You know ten times as much as he does of the actual workings of our system and of its true theory.’”2 Samuel Taylor agreed and, in an article comparing both men side by side, argued that, while Tocqueville was the better writer, Lieber surpassed him “as a political philosopher, comprehensive in his knowledge of the literatures of history and of politics, and of the practices of government; and profound in understanding the guaranties of liberty, and the institutions and arrangements of governments for their protection.”3 Given this high praise, one might well ask whether Tocqueville was a “French Lieber.” However, given Tocqueville’s modern fame, perhaps it is better to ask whether Lieber should be understood as a kind of “German Tocqueville,” especially regarding his observations about the fledgling United States. In order to assess the significance of Lieber’s understanding of American political institutions for his own political thought, we need to begin with his 1834 travel journal about a trip to Niagara Falls.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Politics, Leadership, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
40. Beyond Elections: Evolving Arab Public Opinion on Democracy and Human Rights
- Author:
- Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- U.S. efforts in the region stand a better chance of success if they consider rising demand for accountable governance, skepticism about democratic institutions, and various nation-specific trends. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the fourth essay in the series—covering public opinion on democracy and human rights in Arab states—Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock note a cooling toward democratic institutions, a trend undoubtedly driven by failures in Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq. They discuss corresponding distrust in legislative bodies and high frustration with corrupt governance. Islamist leaders, they observe, come in for increasingly sharp critique. All in all, the findings emphasize a strong public demand for better governance outcomes and, in turn, the benefits as well as limits of U.S. democracy and human rights promotion in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Islam, Politics, Public Opinion, Reform, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and United States of America
41. Rhetoric Meets Reality in Jawlani’s Push for Self-Sufficiency
- Author:
- Aaron Y. Zelin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As a key UN vote approaches, Washington should push Turkey to help promote a diverse, balanced economy in HTS-controlled northwest Syria. On July 10, a United Nations vote will decide the future of the cross-border aid mechanism for northwest Syria, an area run by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The mechanism—which facilitates aid to northwest Syria via Turkey without having to go through Damascus—faces the prospect of nonrenewal for the first time since it was created in 2014, as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A failure to renew the mechanism would exacerbate an already daunting humanitarian situation in northwest Syria, where some three-fourths of the population consists of internally displaced persons (IDPs). While aid will likely continue on a far more limited basis if Russia vetoes the mechanism, from a U.S. perspective a more self-reliant HTS-run territory requiring less international assistance would actually be far preferable to a situation in which aid renewal remains subject to periodic dramas. Over the past roughly six years, HTS has transformed itself from an al-Qaeda branch into something resembling a typical regional state governing body, with the group engaging in human rights violations and embracing inflammatory rhetoric. To begin with, it has focused increasingly on developing local institutions and the economy. The group’s strides in governance have been facilitated, in part, by the March 2020 Turkey-Russia ceasefire agreement, which more or less froze the conflict line. Since then, HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani has reiterated the value he places on self-sufficiency and constructing a new polity and society that does not rely on outside help. If HTS and its civilian-led Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) actually followed through on Jawlani’s ideas, locals could find other avenues to support themselves. Yet one must acknowledge at this point that HTS has not matched its lofty rhetoric with efforts to develop indigenous capabilities. Instead, it has worked hard to monopolize economic power.
- Topic:
- Politics, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
42. Somalia (Horn of Africa, part 2 of 2)
- Author:
- Guled Ahmed
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Guled Ahmed joins the program to discuss the political climate in Somalia, its recent elections, security conditions, and the role of external actors including the African Union, Gulf states, Turkey, and the U.S.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Elections, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Turkey, Somalia, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and Horn of Africa
43. American Bubbles: Politics, Race, and Religion in Americans’ Core Friendship Networks
- Author:
- Robert Jones, Natalie Jackson, Diana Orces, Ian Huff, and Maddie Snodgrass
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- To better understand the composition of Americans’ core friendship networks, PRRI designed a study to assess the scope and diversity of Americans’ social relationships. The method of measuring Americans’ core social networks was modeled after the General Social Survey and follows up on a study PRRI conducted in 2013. Respondents were asked to name people with whom they “discussed important matters” in the previous six months, regardless of the nature of the relationship or the frequency of interaction. This approach is designed to measure the ways in which individuals’ choices and attitudes are influenced by their family and close friends.[1]
- Topic:
- Politics, Race, Religion, Social Cohesion, Social Identities, and Social Exclusion
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
44. Political and Religious Activation and Polarization in the Wake of the Roe v. Wade Overturn
- Author:
- PRRI Staff
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In a survey conducted June 24-26, 2022, after the Dobbs decision was announced, 65% of Americans say abortion should be legal in most or all cases, including 33% who say it should be legal in all cases and 32% who say it should be legal in most cases. One-third of Americans (33%) say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases, including 25% who say it should be illegal in most cases and 8% who say it should be illegal in all cases. PRRI has tracked opinion on this question since 2010, when 55% of Americans said abortion should be legal in most or all cases and 42% said it should be illegal in most or all cases. Much of the change has been in the “all cases” responses: support for legal abortion in all cases has slowly ticked up, from a low of 18% in 2010 and 2011 to the current 33%. Most recently, in March 2022, 28% said abortion should be legal in all cases. Conversely, the proportion of Americans who say abortion should be illegal in all cases has slowly declined, from 15% in 2010, and a high of 19% in 2014, to its current level of 8% (unchanged from 9% in March 2022). Republicans are least likely to say abortion should be legal in most or all cases (35%), but vast majorities of independents (69%) and Democrats (88%) say it should remain legal. Republicans have stayed consistent since 2010 (when 35% said it should be legal in most or all cases), and independents have moved only slightly (from 64% in 2010). Democrats have become considerably more supportive of abortion legality, however, with 71% saying it should be legal in most or all cases in 2010, compared with nearly nine in ten in mid-2022.
- Topic:
- Politics, Religion, Reproductive Rights, Abortion, Activism, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
45. Consistent Partiality: US Foreign Policy on Palestine-Israel
- Author:
- Sarah Whitson and Peter Beinart
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- Although the Biden administration talks about supporting democracy and human rights, it has maintained unconditional US support for Israel even as human rights organizations label it an apartheid state. What are the political and ideological foundations of America’s hostility to Palestinian freedom? And what would it take to change them? Does the US’s unconditional support for Israel serve America’s national interests? Join the Center for Security, Race and Rights as we address these questions with two internationally known experts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, Politics, Democracy, Ideology, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
46. The Scowcroft Center’s project on twenty-first-century diplomacy
- Author:
- Jeffrey Cimmino and Amanda J. Rothschild
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- How should US diplomacy adapt for the twenty-first century? The practice of diplomacy has changed drastically over the past several decades, with the return of great power rivalry, the emergence of the new technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), and the rise of other important developments. Yet, while scholars and strategists have devoted enormous attention to how these new developments affect other domains, such as the future of warfare, they have devoted scant attention to the changing nature of diplomacy. If we believe, however, that diplomacy is a—if not the—most important tool of American statecraft, then twenty-first-century diplomacy deserves the same level of sustained attention. This paper will seek to characterize the changing nature of diplomacy with the objective of helping US and allied diplomats more effectively practice strategy and statecraft. This issue brief considers two key questions. How is the context of twenty-first-century diplomacy different from that of the past? How can US diplomacy begin to adapt for the twenty-first century? In answering the first question, this issue brief will focus on the most salient change in the international balance of power—the rise of China—in addition to the current technological revolution. After outlining how these changes have affected the context in which the United States conducts diplomacy, this issue brief will suggest several proposals to adapt US diplomacy to the twenty-first century. These suggestions will address both how changes in the global context—especially technology—have affected the conduct of US diplomacy and how US diplomacy can best respond to China’s rise and the 4IR.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Organization, Politics, Science and Technology, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
47. After Hegemony: Japan’s role and dilemma in maintaining the rules-based order
- Author:
- Yu Inagaki
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The phrase “rules-based order” has recently become a recurring theme in the Japan-US alliance . This is based on the recognition that the liberal international order (LIO)—which the United States built and maintained, and that Japan has significantly benefited from—is now being challenged. While the war in Ukraine has heightened the sense of crisis over global power dynamics, China has been considered the main threat to the LIO. The United States has identified China as not just a security threat but a “ most consequential strategic competitor and the pacing challenge ,” and Japan has come to view the current international environment from a larger perspective, international order. In fact, Japan has expected to play a leading role in maintaining the LIO as US international engagement weakened under the Trump administration. However, is it possible for Japan, a constrained middle power, to maintain the existing order in the face of a declining hegemon and rising challengers? This raises a classic question in international relations: What will happen to the international order after hegemony; and what can and will Japan, occupying a particular place and role in the international system, be able and willing to do regarding international order?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, Hegemony, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
48. New Opportunities for the United States-Kingdom of Thailand Alliance in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Lance D. Jackson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In March 2022, the East-West Center in Washington (EWCW), in collaboration with the Royal Thai Embassy, Washington, DC, convened a two-day seminar in which experts from Thailand and the United States discussed issues and opportunities for the US-Thailand alliance. The workshop included a diverse array of discussants hailing from government, military, academic, think tank, and private sector backgrounds. This report, which adheres to the “Chatham House Rule” under which observations referred to in the report are not attributed to any individual participant, is a summary of the group discussions and the key themes from the seminar. The recent signing of the United States-Thailand Communique on Strategic Alliance and Partnership and a memorandum of understanding (MOU) focused on promoting supply chain resilience on July 10, 2022, highlight the pertinence of this report and the associated seminar. The topics detailed in this report aligned with many of the pressing issues addressed in the Communique and MOU, including expanding law enforcement cooperation, deepening cybersecurity collaboration, supporting resilient transportation corridors, advancing military modernization, and catalyzing Thailand’s bio-circular-green (BCG) economy. The report also covered topics and key themes from a series of jointly produced public webinars and an Asia Pacific Bulletin series of policy briefs on US-Thai affairs.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Population, Leadership, Public Health, and Travel
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
49. Dancing in the Battle for the Mantle of the Politically “Modern”: An Interview with Victoria Philips
- Author:
- Victoria Philips and Daniel R. Quiroga-Villamarín
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- “It is that we continue to live as if this were the 20th century, even though we have formally moved to the 21st century,” lamented the former Bolshoi prima Ballerina Olga Smirnova as she announced her decision to defect to the Netherlands. I had just finished reading Victoria Philips’s monograph Martha Graham’s Cold War: The Dance of American Diplomacy (Oxford University Press, 2020) when I read Smirnova’s statement. In her innovative monograph, Philips places Smirnova’s decision in a longer history of moments where “[c]ulture met political aims, as private met public needs, and apolitical ideology served politics” (p. 2). Smirnova’s statement rests on the fact that her cri de paix situates itself above the political quagmire, in the higher realm of the arts—for the artist, as Philips notes, derives “deep political import” from her “claim to be apolitical” (p. 223). Philips provides us in this recent book with an innovative and relevant example of this “politics of antipolitics”: the life and works of Martha Graham. Through a carefully knitted narrative that spans decades of touring, Philips provides us with a detailed account of the role that the “Highest Priestess of Modern Dance in America” played during the Cold War. Drawing from archival sources all around the world, Philips captures the paradoxes, tensions, and contradictions that surrounded Graham’s involvement in a series of dance tours around the world in which she served as an emissary of Unitedstatesean soft power, in the midst of a international struggle for the mantle of political modernity. Indeed, just like Smirnova, Graham’s project was deeply anchored in a modernist understanding of time. But as Philips shows, the promise of modernity was full of ambiguities and ambivalence. Graham’s modernist dance was, at the same time, sacral and secular. It embraced womanhood but shunned organized female emancipation, or feminism. More dramatically, it elevated individualism but depended on the support of the state. Aesthetically, it claimed to represent abstract universal experiences but also purported to capture the particularity of Unitedstatesean (and even non-Western) cultural forms. As we saw above, it was politically antipolitical—and the list goes on. In our days, as Smirnova reminds us, the battle over the plural meanings of the “modern” is far from over. Perhaps, in that sense, we are all still living as if this were the 20th century. In our conversation, we explore what Professor Phillip’s book reveals about the ghosts of the Cold War and their claims to modernity that still haunt our political and aesthetical imaginaries.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Politics, History, Culture, Interview, and Dance
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
50. The Emergence of a Latino Political Ethnicity: 1990 to the Era of Trump
- Author:
- Alan Yang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- Alan Yang examines how ordinary U.S. Latinos of different national origin ancestries have become an increasingly cohesive panethnic political group since the time of the 1990 Latino National Political Survey. He argues that this trend towards increasing convergence across national origin has been both reinforced and disrupted on questions related to politically relevant sentiments and perceptions two years into the Trump presidency.
- Topic:
- Politics, History, Ethnicity, Political Science, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
51. Dangerously Divided: How Race and Class Shape Winning and Losing in American Politics, Zoltan L. Hajnal
- Author:
- Natalie Masuoka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- Explanations for American voting behavior and attitudes have taken on a curious frame since the election of Barack Obama in 2008, such that there have been growing claims that race is no longer central to American politics. Obama’s election was labeled evidence of a new “post-racial” America. Then, when Donald Trump was elected in 2016, public narratives emphasized the role of social class by pointing to the voting bloc of white, working-class, and rural voters who had helped decide the outcome of the election. Zoltan L. Hajnal’s Dangerously Divided joins an important collection of recent academic work that directly challenges the argument about the reduced role of race in American politics. Hajnal does not sugarcoat his position: “A key aspect of this story is not just that race matters but also that it eclipses the other important dividing lines in American society” (p. 13). Race has always been a core feature of American politics, and it is present even in the constitutional Framers’ debates over the structure of government. The interpretation that recent events indicate a reduced role of race discounts the historical centrality that race has always played in American government. Hajnal offers empirical evidence and an unambiguous argument that race continues to direct most patterns in American politics.
- Topic:
- Politics, Race, Elections, Book Review, Political Science, and Class
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
52. Leveraging Submarine Cables for Political Gain: U.S. Responses to Chinese Strategy
- Author:
- Lane Burdette
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Submarine cables are critical infrastructure that carry nearly all internet traffic. However, unclear international governance does not always guarantee their protection, leaving global information networks vulnerable to sabotage and espionage. China’s access to submarine cables for strategic manipulation is greatly expanded through the Digital Silk Road and territorial claims in the South China Sea, posing a clear threat that requires a U.S. response. Current U.S. policy is uncoordinated and can be sorted into the isolationist, cooperative, competitive, and militaristic responses, which each present unique frameworks for future action. The isolationist response would disconnect the United States from insecure cable networks, limiting China’s influence over U.S. assets but reducing international connectivity. The cooperative response emphasizes international norms-setting processes to achieve multilateral agreements protecting cables from state influences. The competitive response advocates U.S. competition with China in the submarine cable market through alternate assistance programs, which would increase the redundancy of a secure network. Finally, the militaristic response explores the role of America’s military in defending submarine cables from foreign exploitation. This article recommends that future policy emphasize a combination of the competitive and militaristic responses in order to most immediately and effectively address China’s threat to information security along submarine cables while minimizing U.S. risk.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Governance, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
53. COVID-19 and the 2020 US presidential election: Did the pandemic cost Donald Trump reelection?
- Author:
- Marcus Noland and Eva (Yiwen) Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- By Election Day 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had killed 234,244 Americans and caused the sharpest macroeconomic downturn in US history. Hypothetical calculations using county-level electoral data show that in a “no pandemic” scenario or a scenario in which the severity of the pandemic was mitigated by 30 percent, Donald Trump would have lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote. In the 20 percent mitigation scenario, the electoral vote would have been tied, giving Trump a presumptive victory in the House of Representatives. For the second time in a row (and the third time since 2000), the candidate who lost the popular vote would have been elected president of the United States.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Elections, Donald Trump, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
54. U.S. Economic Challenges for the Biden Administration
- Author:
- Paweł Markiewicz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The U.S. economy is emerging from the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To maintain growth and at the same time achieve climate and technology goals, the Biden administration is pushing large socio-economic programmes. To pass them in Congress, the administration will be forced to reach compromises with factions within the Democratic Party. Biden also will need some Republican support. In foreign policy, these programmes aim to strengthen the U.S. position in its rivalry with China, something that also opens greater possibilities for closer cooperation with the EU.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, COVID-19, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- China, North America, and United States of America
55. Iranian Politics Leading Up to the 2021 Presidential Elections and US Influences
- Author:
- Mari Nukii
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- It is no exaggeration to say that Iran has been one of victims most suffered from the Trump administration's 'America First' policy in the four years since President Trump's inauguration in 2017. The main cause was Trump's unilateral declaration on May 8, 2018 to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and resume sanctions against Iran. Furthermore, in May 2019, the United States imposed a total embargo on Iranian oil and sent the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and bomber units to the Middle East, heightening the risk of military conflict between the two countries.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
56. To Beat China On Tech In Emerging Markets, Learn From It: Competing with China on 5G and future technologies
- Author:
- Luke Patey
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Recommendations: The US, South Korea, Japan, and the EU can pool resources to level the playing field with China and offer new finance options for developing countries seeking to upgrade their communications and technology infrastructure. The US should look to the India and Vietnam model and help other nations develop domestic capacities that lower dependencies on Huawei and other foreign tech providers over time. Open RAN is no silver bullet to compete with China. Its potential will only be fully realized in the mid and long run, after high integration costs, security gaps, and other problems are worked out.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Development, Politics, Science and Technology, Power Politics, Economy, and Cyberspace
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
57. US Foreign Policy Challenges and Achievements in the First 8 Months of Joseph Biden's Presidency
- Author:
- Nika Petriashvili
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- September 20 will mark exactly eight months since Joseph Biden took over the presidency of the United States. The purpose of our review is to assess the activities of his administration in the international political arena, which obviously cannot be understood in isolation from the ongoing processes within the country and the decisions made in domestic politics. When assessing the steps taken by President Biden and his administration in international relations, we must first look at the legacy he inherited from the previous president and his administration. This will be one of the primary elements based upon which we will assess the performance of the 46th President of the United States and his administration. To put it very modestly, the situation that Joseph Biden faced inside the country and abroad after Donald Trump was really not simple: A polarized society within the United States and a complicated relationship with international partners. Naturally, all this was further complicated by the very difficult epidemiological state in the country precipitated by the pandemic, and the significantly deteriorating socio-economic situation. Clearly, the citizens of the United States expected the Joseph Biden administration, first and foremost, to deal quickly and effectively with the major domestic challenges. Tensions reached a peak in American society after radical and extremist groups penetrated the Capitol on January 6. As a result, Joseph Biden's main message and first steps were aimed at calming and uniting society within the country. Of course, it would not be right to discuss these dramatic processes only in a domestic context. The tensions within the country have been closely monitored by both US partners, including Georgia, as well as its rivals and enemies. We cannot really say that Joe Biden was able to heal the American public during these 8 months, as he promised in his inaugural speech, but the situation has calmed down somewhat, and the processes have indeed shifted towards a quieter and more professional course.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States of America
58. A strategic shift: The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan and its implications
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Taliban was able to establish control over Afghanistan with surprising speed due to the collapse of solidarity between the forces opposing them. Nonetheless, its leaders were keen to allay the fears of both the Afghans and external forces to gain political legitimacy internally and externally.
- Topic:
- Politics, Taliban, Conflict, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
59. Partisan Biases in U.S.‐Japan Relations
- Author:
- Paul Nadeau
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Japan will welcome the Biden administration with relief in the wake of what was perceived as Trump’s bombast, threats, and unpredictability – but it will be mixed with apprehension (fair or not) that Biden’s presidency will follow the Obama administration’s perceived weakness, or even accommodation, toward China. It’s a crude simplification, but Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s relationship with U.S. political parties is roughly that they share preferences but not perceptions with Democrats, and share perceptions but not preferences with Republicans. In practical terms, this means that Japanese decision makers favor alliances and multilateral approaches over unilateralism and brinksmanship, but are more suspicious of China’s intentions and behavior than they believe Democrats to be. Put more indelicately, the LDP prefers working with Republicans rather than Democrats. This is combined with a traditional perception that Democrats undervalue Japan as a partner. Taken as a whole, this means that the incoming administration may have to do more to convince Japan that its priorities are being taken seriously – but will find in Japan an essential partner for advancing U.S. goals in the Indo-Pacific.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
60. Increasing Support for U.S.‐Japan Alliance in Okinawa is Not a Pipedream
- Author:
- Hillary C. Dauer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The ongoing political impasse between Japan’s central government in Tokyo and the Okinawa prefectural government over U.S. military basing threatens the long-term stability of the U.S.-Japan Alliance. In spite of the friction between the central government and the prefecture, and the much decried “burden” of U.S. bases on Okinawa there is relatively little deep-seeded resentment among the Okinawan people toward the U.S. military presence or the U.S.-Japan Alliance as a whole, especially among those born after the reversion of Okinawa to Japanese sovereignty in 1972. Surveys also show that Okinawans desire more dialogue with U.S. service members based in Okinawa. But a fraught Okinawan history with mainland Japan and economic marginalization have so far undermined the strong potential for good-faith dialogue that could break the impasse. The relocation of U.S. military bases is essential to the U.S. and Japanese governments’ security policy vis-à-vis emerging threats in the region. Both governments realized in the 1990s that Okinawa could not remain a key power projection node in the Western Pacific if the bases remained a flashpoint of political controversy due to their proximity to densely populated communities. This potentially volatile situation was brought under intense scrutiny with the 1995 rape committed by three U.S. service members against an Okinawan junior high school student and the resulting agreement to close the Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma. Moreover, the construction of the Futenma Replacement Facility also factors into subsequent U.S. Pacific maritime realignment strategy. Further delays could leave Japan less secure and impair U.S. attempts to counter growing Chinese assertiveness in the East and South China Seas.
- Topic:
- Politics, Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
61. Countering Zero-Sum Relations in the Middle East: Insights from the Expert Survey
- Author:
- Flavio Fusco
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Building on emerging debates on the need to develop de-escalation mechanisms for the Middle East, the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the Brussels-based Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), with support from the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, launched a one-year research and outreach project entitled “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”. Connected to the research, an expert survey targeting European, US, Russian, Middle Eastern and Chinese experts and practitioners was conducted on key themes, principles and approaches associated with a potential new security architecture for the region. The results of the survey – first published in an edited book volume jointly published by IAI and FEPS in November 2020 – are analysed below, complete with tables and infographics on key themes associated with the research project and the search for new, inclusive mechanisms for dialogue and de-escalation in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America
62. Ten Years of the Syrian Conflict: Time for the EU to Reconsider Its Strategy?
- Author:
- Amer Al-Hussein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Syrian conflict entered its eleventh year on 15 March 2021, bringing this “living nightmare” back to our minds.[1] This ominous anniversary should remind the world of the importance of addressing the bleak reality inside Syria. While the new US administration provides a glimmer of hope for a return to diplomacy, multilateralism and an end to the mercantilism of the past years, Europe would be wrong to simply wait for the US lead on Syria.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Sanctions, European Union, Institutions, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Mediterranean
63. Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics
- Author:
- Mark Lamont Hill and Mitchell Plitnick
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- A book talk on Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, and Progressivism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and United States of America
64. What choices remain for the United States in Syria?
- Author:
- Nate Rosenblatt and Jomana Qaddour
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Syria is home to one of the world’s most complex conflicts. The chaos caused by the Syrian regime and its allies — within Syria, across the Middle East, and beyond — poses immediate and enduring threats. Considering its foreign policy promise to defend democracy and human rights, the Biden administration does not have the luxury of ignoring what happens in Syria. Accepting that there are fewer options for the United States today than there were ten years ago does not mean normalizing the Assad regime or turning a blind eye to Russian and Iranian efforts to tip the balance of power in the region. In a new issue brief from the Atlantic Council’s Syria program, “What Choices Remain for the United States in Syria?,” Nate Rosenblatt and Jomana Qaddour describe the challenges the United States faces in Syria, including Russia’s attempt to expand the UN Strategic Framework as well the struggle to keep the UN humanitarian border crossings open in northern Syria. The memo then lays out the three potential strategies in Syria: one prioritizing the withdrawal of US forces, a second protecting humanitarian access and ensuring progress on limited, critical files, and a third maintaining US support for, as well as coordination with, partners to dial up the pressure on the Syrian government and its allies. The paper ultimately argues that the Biden administration should seize this opportunity to establish a clear strategy in Syria by aligning its defense, development, and diplomatic capabilities with those of its global allies and partners to shape a better outcome in Syria.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Human Rights, International Organization, Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
65. Poland and the United States: What’s right, what’s not, and what’s next
- Author:
- Daniel Fried and Jakub Wiśniewski
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Around the time of President Joe Biden’s first trip to Europe in June 2021, US-Polish relations experienced a short, but intense, rough patch. Missteps on both sides caused the problems, including fears on the Polish side of a high-handed US attitude and a general lack of consultation on issues (like Nord Stream 2) that Poland regards as critical. Some Poles started questioning the good faith of their biggest ally. The US side, for its part, thought Poland was ignoring US overtures and assuming the worst of the United States. Draft legislation that would target the largest US investment in Poland (the TVN television network) generated US concerns about both the investment climate in Poland and political pressure on independent media. In short order, wiser counsel emerged on both sides, and top-level discussions may ease the sense of tension. 1 But, the episode suggests that problems have developed in what has been (and should remain) one of the closest transatlantic relations. Both the United States and Poland need to look hard at what this relationship can do for both countries and for the transatlantic relationship, and at the sources of problems.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Poland, North America, and United States of America
66. Building a Strong and Independent Iraq: Policy Guidance for the Biden Administration
- Author:
- Abram N. Shulsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Formulating US policy toward Iraq can be a fraught matter, given all the debate and disagreement concerning the actions that brought us to the current situation. However, our policy must be formulated in light of it, regardless of views about our past actions. Policy formulation should begin with the realization that Iran has gained a predominant political and military influence in Iraq. Despite efforts of past PM Adel Abdul Mahdi and current PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, many of the militias comprising the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) still answer to Iran, not the Iraqi government. Iran exerts widespread influence throughout the political class. Economically, Iraq remains dependent on Iran for energy;1 religious tourism from Iran to the holy sites in Karbala and Najaf is an important source of revenue; and Iran has flooded markets with cheap food and consumer goods. Although Iraqi oil production has rebounded, the economy remains relatively moribund and the level of basic public services is poor. (That Iraq flares off its natural gas at the same time it is importing it from Iran to produce electricity2 highlights the economic disfunction.) Popular discontent boiled over in 2019, leading to widespread protests. The protests took on an anti-Iranian aspect, and Iran-aligned PMF units attacked the protestors.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Economics, Government, Politics, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America
67. Taking the Helm: A National Technology Strategy to Meet the China Challenge
- Author:
- Martijn Rasser and Megan Lamberth
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- The United States faces a challenge like no other in its history: a strategic competition with a highly capable and increasingly resourceful opponent whose worldview and economic and political models are at odds with the interests and values of the world’s democratic states. A rising China poses a fundamental challenge to the economic vitality and national security of the United States and its allies and the currency of liberal democratic values around the world. Technology—a key enabler for economic, political, and military power—is front and center in this competition. Technological leadership—how a country invents, innovates, and deploys technologies to compete economically and to secure its interests—will shape the coming years to a remarkable degree. The United States has maintained such leadership for decades. Today, that leadership is at risk. The United States is failing to rise to the occasion—its policies inadequate and disconnected and its response reactive and disjointed. The country needs a new approach to regain the initiative. The stakes are high and the window for action is closing. The U.S. government must craft a national technology strategy for an era of sustained competition with a highly capable contender: a comprehensive framework to plan, execute, and update its technology policies. The strategy is a whole-of-nation approach—including human capital, infrastructure, investments, tax and regulatory policies, and institutional and bureaucratic processes—to preserve its current advantages and to create new ones. To be effective, creating and executing the strategy must involve stakeholders from federal and state governments, private industry, academia, and civil society. The overarching goal is to maintain the United States’ standing as the world’s premier technology power so that it can empower its citizens, compete economically, and secure its national interests without having to compromise its values or sovereignty. The purpose of this report is to provide the intellectual framing for what a national technology strategy is and why the United States needs one. It does not offer a list of prioritized technology areas. Rather, it provides guidelines for how to think about such prioritization and what qualities should inform the resulting policy decisions.
- Topic:
- Politics, Science and Technology, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
68. Spies and Money: Legal Defenses Against Foreign Interference in Political Campaigns
- Author:
- Jessica Brandt and Josh Rudolph
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, U.S. government officials have normalized a damaging notion: that soliciting or participating in foreign interference in a U.S. election will not be prosecuted. Foreign governments from Beijing to Moscow and elsewhere are watching closely, and unless Congress and the new administration act quickly to close loopholes in the current U.S. legal framework governing political campaigns, every major U.S. election could be undermined by foreign interference that is not prohibited by U.S. law. A new legal framework around political campaigns is sorely needed—one that provides a proactive and holistic approach to foreign interference rooted in the need to protect U.S. national security.
- Topic:
- National Security, Politics, Elections, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
69. Adversarial Avenues: Ten Bipartisan Ways to Make a Bill Like S. 1 Close Loopholes Autocrats Exploit to Meddle in U.S. Politics
- Author:
- Josh Rudolph
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- In his push for bipartisan efforts on voting rights legislation, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) warned that “the lack of transparency in many campaign finance rules provides multiple avenues for foreign and national adversaries to meddle in the American political system.” These loopholes might be called the “adversarial avenues” of malign finance. Manchin went on to explain that this is why he supports two campaign finance provisions included within the For the People Act (S. 1): The DISCLOSE Act and the Honest Ads Act. Manchin is absolutely right. The most comprehensive research on covert foreign money classified by legal avenue more than 100 cases—adding up to more than $300 million over the past decade—of authoritarian regimes such as Russia and China funneling money into democratic processes as a geopolitical weapon. Strikingly, 83 percent of this activity was enabled by seven legal loopholes that were identified in this research and are now being actively tackled by the European Parliament. Two of those seven vulnerabilities would be addressed by DISCLOSE and Honest Ads, which would impose financial transparency on “dark money” non-profits and online political ads, respectively. But foreign powers do not stop there. As President George Washington warned in his farewell address, they bring “insidious wiles” to their tradecraft of foreign influence. Autocrats invent and exploit cunning ways to secure political power, devising creative tricks to interfere in elections at home and abroad, often through some degree of legal participation by people within the target country. Indeed, a recent U.S. intelligence assessment found that in the 2020 election the Kremlin’s main innovation since 2016 was more collaboration with U.S.-based conduits. That is why, in addition to Thomas Morley’s and my year-long research project on malign finance, Jessica Brandt and I worked with a bipartisan team of legal experts to develop legislative proposals that would outlaw U.S. participation in foreign interference. Drawing from this extensive body of research developed over the past two years, 10 policy proposals would further address the “multiple avenues for foreign and national adversaries to meddle in the American political system.” The first five proposals offer ways to more thoroughly approach interference issues already under consideration in S. 1, while the second five proposals introduce new resilience measures for consideration.
- Topic:
- Politics, Finance, Legislation, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
70. Coordinating the War on Corruption
- Author:
- Josh Rudolph
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration has a historic opportunity to unify U.S. domestic and foreign policy through an aggressive mission to combat corruption and kleptocracy. Middle-class Americans are frustrated by perceptions of corruption at home, while authoritarian regimes are organized as oligarchies weaponizing corruption around the world. While these trends have fueled passionate discourse in recent years, the Biden administration should seek a legacy of achieving actual results by institutionalizing anti-corruption reforms throughout U.S. and international financial, diplomatic, and legal systems, including a formidable raft of new policies and commitments to be showcased at the Summit for Democracy, which Biden has pledged to host in his first year in office. The administration should start with powerful regulatory action to root dirty money out of the U.S. financial system. Within the first 100 days of this anti-corruption reform initiative, Treasury should take ten initial steps, the two strongest being finalizing a 2015 proposal to make private equity and hedge funds identify their customers and publishing the first-ever National Corruption Risk Assessment. After the first 100 days but within the first year of this effort, Treasury should take another seven steps, such as regulating more enablers and writing strong rules for the new beneficial ownership registry. The White House should also work together with Congress to eliminate dark money from politics and work with the Justice Department (DOJ) to deliver and communicate tangible policy and enforcement outcomes that most Americans would see as truly “draining the swamp.” The White House, in consultation with Treasury and partners at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), should push for a landmark international agreement to end offshore financial secrecy, including commitments around public beneficial ownership registries, automatic exchange of tax information, a cross-border payments database, and steps toward a global asset registry, as well as sanctions to motivate cooperation with all the above. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) should scale up support for anti-corruption activists. The Department of State should integrate an anti-corruption action fund into pre-existing efforts, recommit to international anti-corruption initiatives that languished under Trump, and strengthen internal coordination and capacity-building efforts. Law enforcement should pressure kleptocrats by publicizing confiscated assets and banned individuals while reforming global mechanisms suffering from abuse (e.g., EB-5 golden visas, mutual legal assistance treaties, Interpol, etc.). The ambitious 100-point anti-corruption agenda described in this report is achievable, but only if the White House supports it as a top policy priority, including the commitment of resources needed to dedicate a small team to coordinate the work, which could take the form of either a standalone directorate at the National Security Council (NSC) or a task force of staffers drawn from several White House components. To energize Treasury, State, USAID, DOJ, and other departments and agencies at a high level, this team should be run by a White House senior director dedicated exclusively to anti-corruption and a designated senior leader such as the Vice President, coordinating efforts across the areas of democracy and human rights (DHR), international economics (Intecon), the Domestic Policy Council (DPC), and other White House offices. This White House anti-corruption team should be staffed with at least three directors, each dedicated to one priority area: building a global coalition, rooting out dirty money, and showing compelling results to the American people.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
71. How To Retain Election Officials To Secure Future Elections
- Author:
- David Levine
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- The 2020 presidential election was called the most secure in U.S. history, largely due to efforts to protect the nation’s different physical and cyber infrastructure. This was a triumph considering the physical, cyber, and even human assets that make up the election infrastructure have been and continue to be susceptible to threats. In 2020, many states adopted measures to mitigate threats to physical and cyber election assets like voting equipment, ballots, and facilities, as well as computer services and databases that store voter information. For example, states with close results in the 2020 presidential race had paper records of each vote, which gave them the ability to go back and count each ballot if necessary. Other measures such as pre-election testing, state and federal certification of voting equipment, and increased collaboration between election officials and their security partners helped provide additional assurance that the 2020 election results were legitimate. Unfortunately, analogous measures were not in place to protect many of the people—from state and local election administrators to poll workers and vendor staff—who administered the elections. Due in large part to the incendiary rhetoric from former President Donald Trump and his followers, many election officials were threatened and harassed, and such behavior shows no signs of abating. Instead of taking steps to address this problem, many states have passed or are considering passing laws that could make this problem worse. Georgia’s new law removed the Georgia’s secretary of state—who rejected Donald Trump’s effort’s to overturn the state’s 2020 results—from decision-making power on the state election board and turned control of the board over to a politicized, less knowledgeable body: the state legislature. Iowa’s new law threatens election officials with criminal prosecution for failing to follow new voting rules. And Florida recently adopted a rule that subjects its local election officials to a civil penalty of $25,000 if a drop box at an early voting site is left accessible for the return of ballots outside of early voting hours. The unrelenting targeting of administrators—along with unfunded election mandates, threats, burn out, and fatigue—has pushed many election officials to leave or consider leaving their positions. According to a recent Democracy Fund/Reed College Survey of Local Election Officials, approximately one-third of chief local election officials will be eligible to retire before the 2024 election, including more than half of those in the largest jurisdictions, which each serve more than 250,000 registered voters. Considering what many of these election officials and their staffs endured during the 2020 election cycle, and continue to experience, it would be unwise to simply wait and hope that they decide to hang on. Instead, every effort should be made to create an environment that is as conducive as possible for retaining these unsung heroes of the 2020 elections. The ability of the United States to conduct future secure elections may well depend on it. This paper focuses on measures state and local governments can take in concert with their election offices to help retain as many of their high-performing election officials as possible. State and local governments should have support from the federal government and Congress to help address this national security issue, but if the fight over funding the 2020 election is any indication, they should begin taking steps to address this problem now. Below are ten suggestions for how state and local governments can retain their high-performing election officials. None is a “silver bullet,” not all of them will be relevant for each state and local government unit, and some governments have already taken many of these steps. But in addressing election official retention solutions, these suggestions provide remedies for some of the thorniest problems that election officials encounter.
- Topic:
- Politics, Infrastructure, Elections, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
72. How Can America Challenge China's Political Ambitions in an Age of Deglobalisation?
- Author:
- Dimitri Zabelin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 has accelerated the trend of deglobalisation and further entrenched China into the growing political and economic fort of Asia. This has made the US less effective at implementing policies aimed at curbing Beijing’s political ambitions and strength in the region. Washington must therefore make itself indispensable in Asia and employ strategies for bringing China into a global network that can collectively reign in the Asian giant’s growing influence.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Strategic Competition, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
73. Beyond Borders: Middle East in Empire, Diaspora, and Global Transitions (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Spring 2021)
- Author:
- Reilly Barry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The Middle East saw its share of globe-altering events in the last year. While JMEPP seeks to offer original analysis beyond the headlines, almost all major contemporary regional developments have been addressed in the present edition. The list, of course, is not exhaustive, but includes the Abraham Accords and increasing international marginalization of Palestinians, the renewed fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, continued protests amidst crises and weakening state institutions in Lebanon, and the rise of Turkey’s aggressive imperial foreign policy, to name a few. While there are major global transitions afoot as relates to the region, there is also a lack of transition— sadly, the 10-year anniversary of the Syrian revolution marks little change for those living under the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad. Likewise, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen persists. The edition discusses what may become of newly inaugurated President Biden’s policies toward the region, including the challenge of renegotiating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. And finally, the edition would be remiss to not address how Covid-19 has impacted the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Diaspora, Refugees, Social Media, Alliance, Conflict, Protests, Peace, Houthis, COVID-19, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Georgia, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh
74. Why the U.S. Should Help Prevent Lebanon’s Collapse
- Author:
- Imad K. Harb
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- Lebanon today is experiencing wrenching convulsions that threaten its complete disintegration. It may be difficult, or unwise, for the Biden Administration to wade into Lebanon’s waters. But if the United States wants to preserve its strategic posture along the eastern Mediterranean––which is essential for its influence in the entire Levant––it cannot afford not to be involved in helping the country.
- Topic:
- Politics, Foreign Aid, International Community, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and United States of America
75. The “Four Plus One”: The Changing Power Politics of the Middle East
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna and George Meladze
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this inaugural MDC Occasional Paper, Josh Krasna and George Meladze analyze the structure of power in the Middle East during the past decade, mapping the main regional players and the interrelationships between them, and assessing the potential for future change in the politics of the region.
- Topic:
- Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
76. Americans Split on Military Aid to Israel, Say Political Status Quo Unacceptable
- Author:
- Dina Smeltz and Emily Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Ahead of Prime Minister Bennett's first visit to Washington, Council data show partisan divides on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, support for a Palestinian state, and more. In recent years, the US-Israel relationship was stewarded by Israel’s longest-serving leader, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the man whom he referred to as “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House,” former President Donald Trump. This week, the first meeting between the two countries’ newly elected leaders, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, will set the tone for a new era of US-Israel relations. New data from the 2021 Chicago Council Survey indicate that some differences in ideas about US policy toward Israel on Capitol Hill—heightened by the 11-day clash between Israel and Hamas last May—have corresponding divisions among the American public. The US public is sharply divided along partisan lines on key issues, including whether to take a side in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, support for a Palestinian state, and restrictions on the uses of military aid to Israel. Moreover, it’s not just Americans who are at odds with each other. A comparison of the recent Chicago Council Survey and a Viterbi Family Center poll shows that the American public and Jewish Israelis have opposing views on what might be acceptable solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while Israeli Arabs and Americans are broadly aligned on acceptable political outcomes.
- Topic:
- Politics, Foreign Aid, Military Affairs, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and United States of America
77. 2021 Chicago Council Survey: A Foreign Policy for the Middle Class—What Americans Think
- Author:
- Dina Smeltz, Ivo H. Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Emily Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- While the Biden administration seems to understand where Americans stand on China and domestic renewal to support global competitiveness, the data disproves their assumptions that Americans are skeptical about trade and weary of US global engagement and leadership.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Trade, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- China, North America, and United States of America
78. Disappointed in Rouhani, Iranians Seek a Different Sort of Leader in June Elections
- Author:
- Brendan Helm, Dina Smeltz, and Amir Farmanesh
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- New indirect talks between the United States and Iran on a return to the Iran deal could help the outlook for a moderate candidate in the next election. Iranian presidential elections are set for June 18. The current president, Hassan Rouhani, who earned initial praise in Iran after successful negotiations for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, is ineligible for reelection and has steadily lost public support after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. A joint survey of the Iranian public conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and IranPoll provides insights into how Iranians view this pivotal moment for Iran. Iranians view Rouhani’s policies quite negatively, especially his economic policies, and for their next leader they want someone who is critical of Rouhani. However, while Iranians did not feel the economic improvements from the JCPOA they expected, new indirect talks between the United States and Iran on a return to the agreement could help the outlook for a moderate candidate.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
79. Public Attitudes on US Intelligence 2020: Final Trump-Era Survey Confirms Broad Popular Support, Reveals Opportunities for Greater Transparency
- Author:
- Stephen Slick and Joshua W. Busby
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- A final Trump-Era survey confirms broad popular support for the intelligence community and reveals opportunities for greater transparency. The University of Texas-Austin’s 2020 survey reaffirmed Americans’ broad-based belief that our intelligence agencies are vital to protecting the nation and effective in accomplishing their core missions. Our fourth annual poll was the last conducted during Donald Trump’s presidency. The high levels of public support for the intelligence community (IC) recorded over the life of this project have proven stable and remarkably resilient to the persistent public criticism by the former president and his political allies. Close examination of the survey data may help inform a strategy aimed at further enhancing the IC’s democratic legitimacy through increased openness and renewed public engagement. Indeed, a majority of the participants in our 2020 survey agreed that the IC could share more information with the American people without compromising its effectiveness.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Politics, Public Opinion, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
80. The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
- Author:
- Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the November US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader. Europeans’ attitudes towards the United States have undergone a massive change. Majorities in key member states now think the US political system is broken, and that Europe cannot just rely on the US to defend it. They evaluate the EU and/or their own countries’ systems much more positively than that of the US – and look to Berlin rather than Washington as the most important partner. There are geopolitical consequences to American weakness. A majority believe that China will be more powerful than the US within a decade and would want their country to stay neutral in a conflict between the two superpowers. Two-thirds of respondents thought the EU should develop its defence capacities. There is a great chance for a revival of Atlanticism, but Washington cannot take European alignment against China for granted. Public opinion will have a bigger effect on the relationship than it once did, and needs to be taken into account.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
81. Bosnia to war, to Dayton, and to its slow peace
- Author:
- Carl Bildt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The international community was gravely unprepared for the conflicts that followed the dissolution of Yugoslavia. In particular, it neglected the challenge of Bosnia. Europe alone was not enough to bring peace, and the United States went from disinterested to disruptive and finally to decisive for a credible peace process. Russia in those days was a constructive actor. The war in Bosnia lasted years longer than it should have more because of the divisions between outside powers than because of the divisions within the country and the region itself. The fundamentals of the Dayton Agreement in 1995 were not too dissimilar from what had been discussed, but not pursued, prior to the outbreak of the war. It is a solution that is closer to the reality of Belgium than to the reality of Cyprus. After the war, many political leaders in Bosnia saw peace as the continuation of the war by other means, which has seriously hampered economic and social progress. Ultimately, it will be difficult to sustain progress for Bosnia or the region without a credible and clear EU accession process.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Conflict, Transatlantic Relations, and Dayton Accords
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and United States of America
82. The Foreign Relations of Islamist Movements
- Author:
- Abdullah Al-Arian
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- Prof. Abdullah Al-Arian discusses how Islamist movements have historically viewed diplomacy as important to their activist missions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Cold War, Diplomacy, Politics, History, and Islamism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, Egypt, and United States of America
83. Conspiracy Buffs, Skeptics and the 2016 US Presidential Election
- Author:
- Ted Goertzel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- We identified “Conspiracy Buffs” and “Skeptics” based on two conspiracy theory items included in the 2016 American National Election Survey. We then compared these two groups, and the much larger group we called the “Uncertains”, on a large number of closed and open-ended survey items. The Conspiracy Buffs had lower levels of education than the Skeptics, had less facility with language, and were more likely to state that they had not thought much about whether they were liberal or conservative. They expressed strongly angry feelings about Hillary Clinton, often citing the Benghazi incident and her use of a private email server. The Skeptics were just as angry at Donald Trump as the Buffs were at Hillary Clinton, but they did not use arguments drawn from conspiracy theories. They referred to his widely acknowledged personality traits and personal behaviors. These traits were also mentioned by many Buffs, but more in disappointment than in anger.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Voting, and Conspiracy Theory
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
84. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Political Warfare and Propaganda
- Author:
- James J. F. Forest, Daniel De Wit, Kyleanne Hunter, Emma Jouenne, Glen Segell, Lev Topor, Alexander Tabachnik, Donald M. Bishop, Phil Zeman, Michael Cserkits, and Anthony Patrick
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The digital age has greatly expanded the terrain and opportunities for a range of foreign influence efforts. A growing number of countries have invested significantly in their capabilities to disseminate online propaganda and disinformation worldwide, while simultaneously establishing information dominance at home. Each of the contributions to this issue addresses the central theme of influencing perceptions and behavior. First, Daniel de Wit draws lessons from a historical analysis of the Office of Strategic Services (OSS), America’s intelligence and special operations organization in World War II. In addition to its efforts to collect intelligence on the Axis powers and to arm and train resistance groups behind enemy lines, the OSS also served as America’s primary psychological warfare agency, using a variety of “black propaganda” methods to sow dissension and confusion in enemy ranks.82 As noted earlier, psychological warfare plays a significant role in the conduct of today’s military operations, so de Wit’s research offers important historical lessons for contemporary campaign planners. Next, Kyleanne Hunter and Emma Jouenne examine the uniquely troubling effects of spreading misogynistic views online. Their analysis of three diverse case studies—the U.S. military, the incel movement, and ISIS— reveals how unchecked online misogyny can result in physical behavior that can threaten human and national security. Glen Segell then explores how perceptions about cybersecurity operations can have positive or negative impacts on civil-military relations, drawing on a case study of the Israeli experience. Lev Topor and Alexander Tabachnik follow with a study of how Russia uses the strategies and tactics of digital influence warfare against other countries, while continually seeking to strengthen its information dominance over Russian citizens. And Donald M. Bishop reveals how other countries do this as well, including China, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela. Each is engaged in these same kinds of efforts to control the information that circulates within their respective societies, while using various forms of propaganda against other countries to strengthen their influence and national power. Phil Zeman’s contribution to this issue looks at how China and Russia are trying to fracture American and Western societies through information, disinformation, economic coercion, and the creation of economic dependencies— in many cases capitalizing on specific attributes and vulnerabilities of a target nation to achieve their strategic objectives. Through these efforts, he concludes, China and Russia hope to prevent the will or ability of American or Western states to respond to an aggressive act. Next, Michael Cserkits explains how a society’s perceptions about armed forces can be influenced by cinematic productions and anime, drawing on a case study comparison of Japan and the United States. And finally, Anthony Patrick examines how social media penetration and internet connectivity could impact the likelihood that parties within a conventional intrastate conflict will enter negotiations. As a collection, these articles make a significant contribution to the scholarly research literature on political warfare and propaganda. The authors shed light on the need for research-based strategies and policies that can improve our ability to identify, defend against, and mitigate the consequences of influence efforts. However, when reflecting on the compound security threats described at the beginning of this introduction—involving both cyberattacks and influence attacks—a startling contrast is revealed: we have committed serious resources toward cybersecurity but not toward addressing the influence issues examined in this issue. We routinely install firewalls and other security measures around our computer network systems, track potential intrusion attempts, test and report network vulnerabilities, hold training seminars for new employees, and take many other measures to try and mitigate cybersecurity threats. In contrast, there are no firewalls or intrusion detection efforts defending us against digital influence attacks of either foreign or domestic origin. Government sanctions and social media deplatforming efforts respond to influence attackers once they have been identified as such, but these efforts take place after attacks have already occurred, sometimes over the course of several years. The articles of this issue reflect an array of efforts to influence the perceptions, emotions, and behavior of human beings at both individual and societal levels. In the absence of comprehensive strategies to more effectively defend against these efforts, the United States risks losing much more than military advantage; we are placing at risk the perceived legitimacy of our systems and institutions of governance, as well as our economic security, our ability to resolve social disagreements peacefully, and much more.83 Further, many other nations are also facing the challenges of defending against foreign influence efforts. As such, the transnational nature of influence opportunities and capabilities in the digital age may require a multinational, coordinated response. In the years ahead, further research will be needed to uncover strategies for responding to the threat of digital influence warfare with greater sophistication and success.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Politics, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Women, Radicalization, Cybersecurity, Internet, History, World War II, Propaganda, Deterrence, Disinformation, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Digital Policy, Psychological Warfare, and Misogyny
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Israel, Global Focus, and United States of America
85. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zero-sum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, North Africa, United States of America, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations
86. The World After the Pandemic: European Unity and the Challenge of Reviving Multilateralism
- Author:
- Sonia Bianconi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Covid-19 has dramatically re-focussed the world’s attention on the adverse implications of globalisation. Coming on the heels of the 2008 financial crisis, the global pandemic has further weakened the image and credibility of the United States, causing the West to lose appeal compared to a more authoritarian but equally efficient East.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America
87. Europe’s Strategic Compass: Merits and Shortcomings
- Author:
- Riccardo Perissich
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Europe’s “Strategic Compass” proposes a number of initiatives to enable the EU to act in the security and defence domain and confront the many challenges impacting European interests. The document, prepared by the European External Action Service (EEAS) under the responsibility of Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative and Vice President of the Commission, will be debated by defence and foreign ministers over the next few months and subsequently adopted as an official strategy statement sometime during the French Presidency of the European Council next year.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Politics, Military Affairs, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
88. Republicans’ Biggest Problem is That They Need Trump Supporters’ and Extremists’ Votes
- Author:
- Natalie Jackson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The divisions within the Republican Party have been on clear display in the wake of the tumultuous end to Donald Trump’s presidency, which included a violent insurrectionist takeover of the U.S. Capitol on January 6. In the aftermath, will the party remain loyal to Trump and embrace its more extremist parts, or will it try to expel the extremists and risk losing considerable support? The answer seems to be leaning toward Trumpism and extremism in some ways, particularly with calls to “move on” from the January 6 riot and the Republican Party’s refusal to sanction Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) for embracing and championing violence against Democrats. However, some Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), have specifically said there is no place for conspiracy theories in the party. But McConnell has notably stopped short of supporting most measures for holding Trump accountable for the events of January 6.
- Topic:
- Politics, Public Opinion, Leadership, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
89. United States of America: Political and institutional effectiveness
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
90. United States of America: Political forces at a glance
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
91. Accidental Allies: The US–Syrian Democratic Forces Partnership Against the Islamic State
- Author:
- Michael Knights and Wladimir van Wilgenburg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- To some, America's partnership with the SDF exemplified an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties and wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State. To others, it was a cautionary tale about a U.S. military hoodwinked into working with a terrorist group. The story of America’s military and political partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces is a controversial one. To some, it is a shining example of an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties, wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State, and improved the area’s general political trajectory. To others, it is a cautionary tale of a U.S. military that was hoodwinked by a charismatic and capable partner closely tied to a U.S.-designated terrorist group, the Kurdistan Workers Party, with Washington deliberately averting its eyes from the strategic, political, and moral costs of the partnership. The subject deserves a neutral, data-led investigation that follows the facts wherever they lead. In this volume—copublished by The Washington Institute and I.B. Tauris—military expert Michael Knights and journalist Wladimir van Wilgenburg dive deep into the U.S. relationship with the SDF. The study benefited from intensive debates on sourcing, objectivity, and the need to probe uncomfortable issues. The findings cast light not only on the successes and shortcomings of this particular alliance, but also on how Washington might most profitably pursue “by, with, and through” operations with other forces in the future.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Terrorism, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Military
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
92. A New Start for the U.S. on Mideast Democracy and Human Rights
- Author:
- David Pollock and Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a region where publics are clamoring for healthcare, housing, jobs, and freedom of expression, progress toward electoral democracy need not always be the top priority. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In this inaugural essay, David Pollock and Robert Satloff offer broad guidelines for a reimagined American democracy and human rights agenda in the region. At its core is a call for recognizing the many paths to improving human rights, accountable governance, and participatory democracy and their connection to a range of U.S. interests. Progress toward electoral democracy need not always be the top priority in an arena where regional publics are clamoring for basic rights such as healthcare, housing, jobs, and freedom of expression.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Politics, Reform, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and United States of America
93. Back to Basics: U.S.-Iraq Security Cooperation in the Post-Combat Era
- Author:
- Michael Knights and Alex Almeida
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Questions about the viability of the Iraqi security forces—brought into sharp focus by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—require a data-led analysis of where the forces are today and what mix of U.S., NATO, and European efforts can help them thrive in the future. The August collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces shook the world’s faith in U.S. security cooperation, prompting hard questions about similar arrangements with Iraq. In a country where the United States has been training forces for two decades, officials need straight answers. How resilient are today’s U.S.-supported Iraqi security forces, and could they operate with gradually reduced American support? What kind of near-term Iraqi force development should the coalition credibly expect to see? And how should U.S.-led security cooperation evolve after the December “transition of mission” to a non-combat role? In this urgently applicable Policy Focus, longtime ISF watchers Michael Knights and Alex Almeida provide a data-led analysis of where Iraq’s security forces are today, how they will look tomorrow, and what mixture of U.S., NATO, and European efforts can ensure the best result commensurate with American interests. The roadmap they outline shows how Baghdad can ultimately achieve enduring victory over the Islamic State and overmatch the domestic opponents of a sovereign, stable, and democratic Iraq.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Politics, Terrorism, and Shia
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America
94. Preparing for Orderly Change in Jordan When the Time Comes
- Author:
- Ghaith al-Omari
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The kingdom has navigated tricky successions in the past, and many of the elements that allowed it to do so remain in place today. The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader's departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, the fourteenth and last in the series, looks at prospects for an eventual succession in Jordan. Even as the kingdom today is dealing with serious economic, regional, and political challenges, Hussein bin Abdullah—the twenty-seven-year-old crown prince—faces no challenges and has steadily assumed more public responsibilities. Jordan has navigated tricky successions in the past, and many of the elements that allowed it to do so remain in place today. The next handover could therefore be smooth as well, whatever the complexities of its context.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Democracy, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Jordan, and United States of America
95. US Exit from Afghanistan: Impacts on Pakistan and India
- Author:
- Muhammad Muzaffar, Zahid Yaseen, and Naila Afzal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The aim of this qualitative study is to explore the impacts, challenges, and opportunities for Pakistan and India if United States of America applies full exit policy in Afghanistan. USA invade Afghanistan after 9/11 incident, almost 20 years close to pass, and Barak Obama peace deal withdrawal from Afghanistan is shortly to apply till the 20th anniversary of the said incident. Whole world has fixed her attention on this issue that how would USA successfully exit from Afghanistan by applying adequate intra-Afghan peace deal having a number of interests in the region. Ramification of the study is that USA full exit from Afghanistan is nightmare and for peace process and development of the reign Pakistan and Afghanistan must be cooperate instead of playing in enemy’s hands. It is also recommended that Pakistan need to review foreign policy on sound basis for the preservation of her interests in Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Economy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
96. Factsheet: Tomi Lahren
- Author:
- Bridge Initiative Team
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- Tomi Lahren is a conservative American talk show host and political commentator. Lahren has hosted segments on One America News Network, TheBlaze, and Fox Nation. She issues commentary through her Twitter account, where she has over a million followers. Lahren has rejected the term Islamophobia, expressed support for the Muslim and African Ban, pushed the civilization jihad conspiracy theory, and claimed that “we are at war with Islam.” Lahren also frequently attacks the Black Lives Matter movement, which she has equated to the Ku Klux Klan. Lahren has hosted prominent anti-Muslim figures in her news segments, including anti-Muslim activist Pamela Geller and Brigitte Gabriel, founder of ACT For America.
- Topic:
- Politics, Islamophobia, Far Right, and Alt-Right
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America