Political Geography: United States of America / Publication Year: within 10 Years

701. How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Is Reshaping the Global Arms Market: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond

Author:: Grant Rumley and Louis Dugit-Gros
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Ukraine war is spurring profound changes in the global arms market as Russia, long a top exporter, grapples with battlefield losses, Western sanctions, and reputational damage to its weaponry. Countries that routinely bought arms from Moscow have started considering alternative sources, emerging exporters have amplified their sales pitches, and governments worldwide are seeking to build up their domestic defense industrial bases to safeguard against market turbulence in the age of intensifying great power competition. The Middle East—long one of the world’s principal arms importing regions—sits at the forefront of this new global landscape. In this timely Policy Note, defense expert Grant Rumley and French diplomat-in-residence Louis Dugit-Gros survey the arms marketplace following the Ukraine invasion. They see both opportunities and potential risks for Western states, and argue for steps such as reinforcing Ukraine’s defense industrial base to eventually compete with Russia’s, establishing longer-term security cooperation plans with Middle East partners, and taking action to strengthen the European defense industrial base.
Topic:: Security, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

702. Saudi Normalization with Israel, Domestic 'Transformation,' and U.S. Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Prospects for a Saudi-Israel diplomatic breakthrough appear to have cooled lately amid Riyadh’s rapprochement with Tehran and domestic ferment in Israel. But a narrow focus on these obstacles misses deeper, more encouraging trend lines, including Saudi public receptivity to people-to-people contact already underway in business and sports. Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has stirringly referred to Israel as a “potential ally,” and the transformative post-oil future he is mapping out for the kingdom offers the promise of bilateral cooperation in commerce, high-tech, and tourism, among other sectors. Notwithstanding Riyadh’s deal with Iran, the Saudis and Israelis still share a common threat in the Islamic Republic and a common interest to address it. The key to a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, writes Segal Executive Director Robert Satloff in this new Institute Policy Note, is the U.S. role. While cautioning that a “Sadat to Jerusalem” moment is unrealistic for Saudi Arabia and Israel in the near future, especially given competing priorities for Riyadh, he argues that President Biden could—if he so chooses—negotiate a historic three-way, win-win-win arrangement that not only establishes formal Saudi-Israel relations but also advances a range of important American interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Reform, Democracy, Normalization, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

703. Iran’s Nuclear Endgame Warrants a Change in U.S. Strategy

Author:: Michael Singh
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recently, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency discovered that Iran had enriched uranium to a level just shy of what is generally considered weapons grade. Like many findings before it, this revelation underscores the need for a new U.S. and European policy toward Iran. The two most important and immediate steps in that process are clear by this point: Washington and its partners need to move on from any remaining plans they might have to resurrect the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), namely by activating that accord’s “snapback” mechanism; and governments must heighten their efforts to deter Iran through credible threats of military force.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

704. Striking Back: Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East

Author:: Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iranian drone strikes, as exemplified by the September 2019 attack against Saudi Aramco facilities, have jolted Middle East leaders and revealed Tehran’s long-range precision strike capabilities. The regime’s large and growing drone force, which can be used for reconnaissance or strike missions, now poses an existential threat to the Gulf states and a direct threat to Israel, as does its formidable missile force. Moreover, Iranian drones transferred to Russia have had a significant impact on Moscow’s war against Ukraine. In the bigger picture, advances in drone technology have produced an inflection point in aerial warfare—comparable to the introduction of manned flight more than a century ago—that has ended the guarantee of U.S. air superiority over its forces and bases. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. explores the contours and consequences of Iran’s drone activities in this timely Policy Note. To counter the Islamic Republic, the former CENTCOM commander recommends an approach centered on clearer U.S. communication about its goals for the region, tighter collaboration with partners and allies, and enhanced efforts to counter Iran’s drone fleet, along with its ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Drones, Military, and Asymmetric Warfare
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

705. The United States Is Rapidly Losing Arab Hearts and Minds Through Gaza War, While Competitors Benefit

Author:: Munqith Dagher and Karl Kaltenthaler
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Throughout the fifteen years that following the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq, each American presidential administration has experienced domestic calls to leave the Middle East. However, each time these voices grew louder, a new regional variable emerged that compelled the American administration to return to its traditional role dictated by urgent strategic security and economic interests. After the withdrawal from Iraq, a strategic vacuum led to the emergence of and fight against ISIS, with the deaths of thousands both locally and internationally, and millions from the region displaced. The U.S. military was forced to return to the region to contribute to the efforts to eliminate ISIS. When this goal was declared completed, new regional threats emerged in the form of Iran and its weapons, which threatened not only America’s allies but also the free flow of global oil supplies. While the Biden administration thought this problem could be resolved through a package of incentives and agreements with Iran, the war in Gaza has emerged to confirm once again the error of U.S. assessments that contend that this region is no longer important to America’s strategic interests. According to the third section of the U.S. National Security Strategy document signed by President Biden in October 2022, America's top priority on the global stage is to surpass China, followed by limiting Russia's influence. The national security priorities also include combating terrorism in the Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Islamic State, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

706. Egypt’s Economic Freefall Provides an Opening for U.S. Assistance—and Leverage

Author:: Ben Fishman
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepares to visit Cairo on January 29-30, Egypt’s economy has been busy plummeting to new lows. Part of the blame can be laid on the twin shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, which disproportionately affected the country due to its heavy reliance on threatened resources such as wheat and tourism revenue from Russia and Ukraine. Yet the bulk of its struggles can be attributed to Cairo’s broad economic mismanagement under President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, which has included everything from currency manipulation to misplaced spending priorities, wasteful megaprojects, and undue state and military control over the economy. Since March 2022, Egypt’s currency has lost half its value and now stands at 30 pounds to the U.S. dollar—a drop spurred by the flight of dollars and the IMF’s requirement to adopt a flexible exchange rate. As a result, official inflation reached nearly 22% in December, fifteen points higher than it was at the end of 2021. Shortages are now frequent, and prices for basic goods have soared by nearly 40%. The rising cost of essential bread in particular will be difficult to maintain much longer. Meanwhile, the debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 95%, with a record $100 billion in loan payments due over the next four years. Egypt’s 2022-23 budget allocates over 50% to debt servicing and loan repayments, and this sky-high figure will only increase further over time because the loans are dollar-denominated.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Foreign Aid, Reform, and Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and United States of America

707. Preserving U.S. Military Advantages in the Middle East

Author:: Nathan P. Olsen
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) calls on the U.S. military to sustain enduring advantages and build new ones for the future fight. According to the NDS, building and maintaining advantages to advance U.S. national interests will allow the military to deter attacks against the United States and its allies and partners, while fostering a resilient military force and defense ecosystem. In the Middle East, this challenge is especially relevant. The United States has several enduring advantages that could eventually disappear if the U.S. government does not make significant changes in how it operates in this part of the world.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

708. Sudan's Civil War: Mediation Challenges and the U.S. Role

Author:: Yasir Zaidan, Reem Abbas, and Alex Rondos
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Three experts assess the conflict’s effects on regional humanitarian and security issues, outlining the requirements for a durable ceasefire.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Egypt, and United States of America

709. Niger Coup Threatens U.S. Strategy on Counterterrorism and Russia

Author:: Ben Fishman, Anna Borshchevskaya, and Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 26, Nigerien president Mohamed Bazoum was detained by members of his special guard and put under house arrest, where he remains under harsh conditions. Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani has since declared himself head of the so-called “National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland” and appointed a twenty-one-person cabinet on August 8. The coup comes in the wake of military takeovers in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, and Sudan over the past three years, demonstrating regional anti-democratic trends amid trans-regional instability. Diplomatic efforts to quell the crisis have failed to date. U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken has made repeated calls to Bazoum, reflecting a commitment to securing his release and returning to “constitutional order.” Bazoum was a close American security partner prior to his arrest and was accorded a prominent role during the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington last December. Blinken has also reached out to former president Mahamadou Issoufou, who has better personal ties to the junta; he was once an ally of Bazoum but had recently broken with his successor’s anti-corruption initiatives. This call followed Acting Deputy Secretary Victoria Nuland’s unsuccessful August 8 visit to Niamey, where she was prohibited from meeting with Bazoum or Tchiani. Instead, she spoke with Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, a longtime U.S. security partner who serves as the military’s new chief of staff but would not offer so much as an assurance of Barzoum’s safety, let alone his release or restoration. With the junta rejecting all U.S. and regional diplomatic initiatives, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has threatened military intervention. The alliance’s leaders met on August 10 and agreed to deploy a standby force, though how quickly it can be assembled remains unclear. In neighboring Algeria, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune strongly condemned the junta but said any military intervention in Niger would represent “a direct threat” to his country, declaring, “There will be no solution without us. We are the first people affected.” In Libya—another neighbor keenly attuned to Niger’s stability given persistent smuggling—the Government of National Unity condemned the junta, while the eastern-based warlord Khalifa Haftar condemned the threats by ECOWAS. Elsewhere, Egypt has remained largely silent about the crisis, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates quickly denounced the coup and called for Bazoum’s restoration (in part because he is Niger’s first Arab president). The UAE also sent some military vehicles to neighboring Chad, providing additional border security and signaling their growing bilateral relationship.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Strategic Competition, and Wagner Group
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, West Africa, Niger, and United States of America

710. Rise From the Fall, Unmasking the Vietnamese-American Identity: A Conversation with Author Lan Cao

Author:: Lan Cao and Naja Pham Lockwood
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: This Asia in Action Speaker Series event revolves around the life and literary journey of Lan Cao, a Vietnamese American writer. It begins with her early life in Vietnam and her migration to America in 1975, as depicted in her novel Monkey Bridge, emphasizing themes of exile, loss, and hope. It then delves into the significance of authentic Vietnamese storytelling through her work The Lotus and the Storm, offering a unique perspective on the Vietnam War. The discussion also touches on Vietnam's economic transition with Doi Moi policies and its reflection in Three Seasons, while exploring its impact on Lan Cao's identity as a Vietnamese American and refugee. Finally, her latest book, Family of Six Tones: Refugee Mother and American Daughter, is introduced, along with her ongoing literary journey and future projects.
Topic:: Immigration, Culture, Vietnam War, Identity, and Storytelling
Political Geography:: Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

711. How to Curb Investments in Chinese Technology: Initiatives and Debates in the United States

Author:: Mathilde Velliet
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: In a continuation of U.S. efforts to slow China's development and acquisition of strategic technologies, Washington has imposed new restrictions on American investment in Chinese technology sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum, and semiconductors. On August 9, 2023, President Biden issued an unprecedented executive order, announcing notification requirements and prohibitions for U.S. tech investments in China. Three sectors are targeted: semiconductors, quantum information technology, and artificial intelligence. Washington’s main concern is that these investments are accompanied by technology transfers and “intangible benefits” contributing to the development of Chinese military capabilities. This concern, first voiced in the 1980s, has received a heightened political response since 2018. Considering the emerging consensus in Congress and the multiplication of bills, further measures are likely to be adopted in the coming months. The European Union and certain Member States are beginning to reflect on the consequences of U.S. measures, and on the relevance of adopting their own tools to control investment in China.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Investment, Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computers, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

712. Community Living for People with Disabilities in Public Housing: Evaluating the Frank Melville Supportive Housing Investment Act of 2010

Author:: Sawyer Rogers, Rosalyn Impink, and Alison Ziegler
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: The Frank Melville Supportive Housing Investment Act of 2010 created a federal program to advance community living for people with disabilities. [1] This program’s enactment followed the Supreme Court’s 1999 ruling in Olmstead v. L.C. which categorized unnecessary institutionalization and segregated living of people with disabilities as discriminatory. In the intervening years, amid the continued fallout of the Great Recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, and an ever-challenged affordable housing stock, it is prudent to evaluate the Melville Act’s effectiveness in achieving its goals from a national and programmatic perspective. We find that while the Melville Act successfully promoted mixed community living on a programmatic scale, it lacked a national-level impact due to under-resourcing, was not as cost-effective as predicted, and recipients were less satisfied with their housing than other programs. We recommend that actors in the policy design process advocate for the allocation of more resources to public housing programs with community living for people with disabilities and incorporate the principles of the “Nothing About Us Without Us” movement into the policy development and implementation process. [2]
Topic:: Discrimination, Disability, Legislation, Public Policy, Housing, and Public Housing
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

713. Using Real-Time Google Search Activity to Target Emergency Fiscal Stimulus

Author:: John Kearns
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Congress transferred nearly $1 trillion USD to state and local governments between April 2020 and March 2021 to support vaccination efforts, keep schools open, and sustain economic recovery. As of March 2023, much of this money remained unspent, raising questions about the underlying process of determining the size and distribution of aid. This paper explores how Google search data and machine learning models can work in real-time to assist policy makers in evaluating fiscal policy proposals. These results are among the first pieces of evidence that economic models can feasibly integrate alternative sources of data to provide real-time estimates of economic activity at the state level. The author’s models provide reliable and accurate estimates of state and local fiscal need and indicate the states that need relief the most months ahead of official estimates. The more tailored models presented in this paper could lead to more equitable and effective outcomes at a fraction of the cost to taxpayers when used to inform emergency fiscal stimulus distribution in the future.
Topic:: Economics, Public Policy, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

714. Examining U.S. Relations With Authoritarian Countries

Author:: Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Feldman
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Although U.S. President Joe Biden and his senior advisers have cast their foreign policy in terms of a global struggle between democracies and autocracies, they have pursued close relations with various authoritarian regimes in different parts of the world, including recent efforts to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia and Vietnam. Many people in U.S. policy circles debate the wisdom of the administration’s trade-offs between its stated interest in supporting democracy globally versus countervailing interests that lead it to maintain close ties with some autocrats. But these debates are often confined to a few high-profile cases and rarely draw from a broader understanding of the overall landscape of U.S. relations with authoritarian regimes and the trajectory of such relations across recent decades. This paper seeks to provide such an understanding. Instead of justifying or vilifying U.S. efforts to get along with many authoritarian countries, this paper aims to anchor these debates in a stronger understanding of the ongoing realities of U.S. relations with these countries. It begins with an overview of U.S. relations with authoritarian countries from the presidency of Jimmy Carter through that of Donald Trump. This overview highlights the long pattern of a U.S. approach that is sharply divided between antagonistic relations with some autocratic regimes and a warm embrace of others, while noting some changes across administrations caused by evolving geopolitical paradigms and presidents’ differing personal predilections. The paper then draws on in-depth case research of U.S. relations with nearly sixty undemocratic countries—including their bilateral security ties, economic relations, and diplomatic contacts—to classify the relationships into four categories: 1) close partnerships, 2) adversarial relationships, 3) cooperative relations, and 4) cold, though not actively adversarial, relations. Through the analysis of these categories, the paper highlights the drivers and factors that shape the relationships in question. The United States funds democracy-related assistance programs directed at most undemocratic countries, and the paper analyzes the overall patterns of this aid. It examines both official U.S. democracy assistance and assistance from the National Endowment for Democracy, focusing on the differing amounts and types of aid directed toward countries in the four different categories. The paper reaches three overarching conclusions. First, Biden’s policy with regard to authoritarian countries represents, on the whole, more continuity with than change from most previous U.S. presidents, reflecting deep structures of interest that have shaped U.S. relations with these countries for decades. While the number of friendly and cooperative ties the United States maintains with undemocratic countries has remained relatively constant in recent years, the number and intensity of adversarial and cold relations are growing, primarily as a result of the heightened geostrategic competition between the United States and its allies on the one hand and China and Russia and their allies on the other. Second, security issues are the dominant driver of U.S. relations with authoritarian countries—for both positive and negative relations—and span a wide range of security concerns, including competition with China and Russia, terrorism, and regional instability. Economic interests—such as energy investments, critical minerals, arms sales, or ensuring U.S. market access—do play a role in spurring positive U.S. relations with some authoritarian states, but overall are far less important than security concerns. Democracy and human rights, or more specifically, problems with democracy and human rights, also shape U.S. relations with authoritarian countries but in complex and highly varied ways; they are a backburner issue in some cases, while they loom large in others. Third, the trends going forward appear to be mixed. With U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia tensions continuing to escalate, the United States will have more reasons to put aside its concerns about democracy and human rights in some authoritarian countries as it tries to convince them to move closer to its camp. It will also be motivated to turn a cold shoulder to other countries that align themselves with its rivals. Certain economic imperatives, such as the push to de-risk global supply chains and ensure access to critical minerals, will also create new incentives for friendlier ties with some authoritarian countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

715. How Climate Change Challenges the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent

Author:: Jamie Kwong
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Climate change could have mission-altering impacts on the U.S. nuclear deterrent. This paper examines the range of climate change challenges and threats that could detrimentally affect each leg of the U.S. nuclear triad in different and increasingly serious ways. In doing so, the paper helps to advance broader, ongoing efforts to account for climate change in U.S. national security policies. It also aims to inform and help initiate a larger conversation about the vulnerabilities of all nuclear weapons programs to climate change. Gaining greater clarity about these vulnerabilities now is essential to mitigating the worst effects of climate change on nuclear weapons in the future. The paper highlights the following key findings: Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay is vulnerable to rising sea levels and flooding that could significantly affect its capacity to service U.S. ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Because Kings Bay is one of two bases equipped to support the U.S. SSBN fleet, climate change effects there could have serious repercussions for the broader deterrence mission of the submarine leg of the nuclear triad. At Minot Air Force Base, warming temperatures may accelerate flooding that could impact the accessibility of the base’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos and facilities. This accessibility issue could have cascading effects on the larger ICBM deterrence mission, potentially limiting the reliability of some missiles by delaying scheduled maintenance or deliveries. Increasing temperatures and incidences of extreme precipitation at Whiteman Air Force Base pose potential risks to the nation’s stealth nuclear bombers. Climate change impacts that prevent aircraft from freely taking off from or landing at Whiteman may have some implications for the readiness of the larger bomber leg, especially as related to the accessibility of nuclear weapons storage sites. Importantly, this analysis should be viewed as a descriptive assessment of potential future outcomes based on current trends, not as a prediction. What actually transpires will depend on how the United States prepares for, mitigates, and adapts to these challenges. The paper concludes by offering five recommendations for ways to do so: The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) should conduct climate change vulnerability assessments of all their nuclear installations and facilities to determine how and when climate change could impact each site’s unique nuclear systems, operations, and activities. The DOD should invest in dynamic climate change modeling and both interagency and nongovernmental partnerships to ensure U.S. nuclear decisions and planning are informed by the most accurate climate change projections. The DOD and other agencies should be required to complete forward-looking studies of potential climate change impacts on any future nuclear actions, including the construction and deployment of modernized nuclear systems. The DOD should adopt a mission-level focus in its climate adaptation planning and establish a workstream specifically focused on the nuclear mission. An initial deliverable of this work should be a dedicated climate action plan for the U.S. deterrence mission. The DOD should integrate climate change scenario exercises into nuclear planning to simulate potential climate-nuclear crises and develop mitigation and adaptation plans. Key considerations should include how the climate scenario may impact local and global nuclear operations, nuclear command and control assets, base personnel, and local communities, with the exercise results incorporated into nuclear planning efforts.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Deterrence, and Nuclear Security
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

716. Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says

Author:: Rachel Kleinfeld
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The United States feels roiled by polarization, and the philanthropic world is seized with debates about what to do. Some scholars claim that Americans are so polarized they are on the brink of civil war. Other polls suggest that voters agree on plenty of policies and that polarization is an illusion. Some philanthropists call for pluralism and civility, while others lean into activism, believing polarization is a byproduct of change toward a more just world. So, is the United States polarized or not? If it is, what is causing the polarization and what are its consequences? Should polarization be solved or tolerated? This paper is intended to answer these questions. It opens with five facts about polarization in the United States today and what those imply for possible interventions. A literature review follows, organized chronologically to explain the scholarly shift from thinking of polarization as an ideological, policy-based phenomenon to an issue of emotion, as well as the emerging understanding of polarization as both a social phenomenon and a political strategy. This paper is organized as follows.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democracy, Ideology, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

717. The importance of the United States in Poland’s military security policy in the context of the war in Ukraine

Author:: Łukasz Jureńczyk
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The subject of the article is the importance of the United States in Poland’s military security policy in relation to the war in Ukraine. The article begins with an introduction discussing its main assumptions and a synthetic historical background of the importance of the US for Poland and its security. The main part of the article is divided into two parts, the first one discussing the importance of the US in Poland’s military security policy after the Cold War. The second part is devoted to the change in the importance of the US in this policy in connection with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the main factors that determine this change. The aim of the article is to identify and analyze the changes in the importance of the United States in the Polish military security policy as a result of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. The main research problem is whether the importance of the US in Poland’s military security policy increased as a result of the war, and if so, because of what main factors? The thesis of the article states that the war in Ukraine increased the importance of the US as the main external guarantor of Poland’s security and defense. This is due to the leading role played by the United States in military support for Ukraine and strengthening NATO’s eastern flank, including Poland, in the absence of leadership from Western European powers. The research included interviews with scientists and analysts from research centers in Washington and New York.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Poland, and United States of America

718. Turkey forever balances between East and West

Author:: Karolina Wanda Olszowska
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: When looking at contemporary Turkish politics, an incorrect notion is often circulated that Turkey has only in recent years, as far back as under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, begun a policy of balancing between East and West. The purpose of this article is to analyze Turkey’s posture – in terms of balancing between spheres of influence – after the end of World War II until Turkey joined NATO and then compare it with Turkey’s stance during the Justice and Development Party government in the context of relations with the United States and Russia. This will help answer the question: to what extent is Ankara’s current balkanizing attitude something surprising? Aren’t specific patterns of the 1945–1952 period similar to those of the 21st century, and the differences are the attitudes of Washington and Moscow rather than Ankara?
Topic:: History, Geopolitics, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Soviet Union, and United States of America

719. Puerto Rico’s New Leftist Alliance Poses a Threat to US Imperialism

Author:: Jenaro Abraham
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Puerto Rican Independence Party’s (PIP) latest assembly marks a turning point in electoral strategy and a challenge to the colonial paradigms that have long held the archipelago hostage.
Topic:: Imperialism, Elections, Domestic Politics, Colonialism, and Leftist Politics
Political Geography:: Caribbean, North America, United States of America, and Puerto Rico

720. Political correctness and elite prestige

Author:: Esther Hauk and Javier Ortega
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: Consider a society where the prestige of orthodox views is linked to the prestige of the elite. Heterodox individuals are less likely to express their views if other peers refrain from doing so and if the elite is prestigious. In turn, corruption by the elite is less easily detected if orthodox views dominate. We characterize equilibrium self-denial and corruption and show that an exogenous increase in the range of orthodox views may result in a decrease in the total number of individuals truthfully expressing their views. Some features of the model are shown to be compatible with U.S. data.
Topic:: Ideology, Prestige, and Political Correctness
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

721. The increase in partisan segregation in the United States

Author:: Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Ryan D. Enos, Vincent Pons, and Emilie Sartre
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: This paper provides novel evidence on trends in geographic partisan segregation. Using two individual-level panel datasets covering the near universe of the U.S. population between 2008 and 2020, we leverage information on individuals’ party affiliation to construct two key indicators: i) the fraction of Democrats among voters affiliated with either major party, which reveals that partisan segregation has increased across geographical units, at the tract, county, and congressional district levels; ii) The dissimilarity index, which measures differences in the partisan mix across distinct sub-units and highlights that partisan segregation has also increased within geographical units. Tracking individuals across election years, we decompose changes in partisan segregation into different sources: voter migration, generational change, older voters entering the electorate, and voters changing their partisanship or their registration status. The rise in partisan segregation is mostly driven by generational change, in Democratic-leaning areas, and by the increasing ideological conformity of stayers, in Republican-leaning areas.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Ideology, Polarization, Partisanship, and Voting Behavior
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

722. Panic politics on the US West Coast

Author:: Nicolas Berman, Björn Brey, and Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: This study shows that military attacks —through fear and panic— can distort political behavior and create a “conservative shift” in subsequent elections. Using the distance to the Ellwood bombardment in 1942, a shelling of civilian installations on the US mainland during WW2 which caused minimal damage but that created a large wave of panic, we find that support for Republican candidates increased in subsequent Gubernatorial, Presidential and House elections in Californian counties in the vicinity of the incident. Interestingly, the effect appears to persist for a long time, even after WW2 ended. Using a large corpus of articles from Californian newspapers and text analysis, we provide evidence that the event led to a persistent shift in conservative beliefs of local communities. We conclude that attacks, through their psychological effects, might have long-run consequences through preference-shifting and changes in voting behaviors.
Topic:: Politics, History, Conservatism, Psychology, World War II, and Voting Behavior
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

723. Black empowerment and white mobilization: The effects of the Voting Rights Act

Author:: Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini, and Cecilia Testa
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: The 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) paved the road to Black empowerment. How did southern whites respond? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration rates by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation in exposure to the federal intervention, we document that the VRA increases both Black and white political participation. Consistent with the VRA triggering counter mobilization, the surge in white registrations is concentrated where Black political empowerment is more tangible and salient due to the election of African Americans in county commissions. Additional analysis suggests that the VRA has long-lasting negative effects on whites’ racial attitudes.
Topic:: Race, Elections, Discrimination, Legislation, Voting Rights, Mobilization, Empowerment, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

724. The Governments of Mauricio Macri and Jair Bolsonaro: Ideology, Pragmatism and Foreign Policy

Author:: André Luiz Coelho, Mariano Ignacio Treacy, and Beatriz Bandeira de Mello
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article compares the foreign policy of the governments of Mauricio Macri in Argentina and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, based on the positions of the presidents and their representatives on three issues: 1) relations with the United States, 2) with China and 3) regional integration. We suggest that the Macri government has had to adapt its positions and discursive practices throughout its administration to national and international pressures. We understand that Jair Bolsonaro has adopted a similar stance in his foreign agenda and that his discourses, although strongly ideological, are opposed to more pragmatic actions, especially in the Brazilian economic and trade agendas, as in Argentina. The methodology used in this study is content analysis of speeches and reports from the Brazilian and Argentine foreign ministries, and the theoretical contributions of foreign policy analysis.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, Ideology, Regional Integration, Jair Bolsonaro, and Mauricio Macri
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, South America, and United States of America

725. New Enemies, Old Strategies: Barack Obama's Foreign Policy Based on the Two Presidencies Thesis

Author:: José Francelino Galdino Neto and Marcos Aurélio Guedes de Oliveira
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: How has the relationship between the President and Congress impacted the foreign policy of the Barack Obama administration (2009-2017)? The main objectives of the research are to analyze the foreign policy of the Barack Obama administration based on the relationship between the President and Congress, testing whether the type of policy, domestic or foreign, can explain the occurrence of bipartisanship in votes within Congress. The research design combines the analysis and classification of all 2341 votes taken in the US Senate during the eight years of the Obama administration with an in-depth theoretical and historical analysis typical of case studies. The findings confirm our expectations. In short, during the Obama administration, bipartisanship between Republicans and Democrats was greater in foreign policy than in domestic policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, American Presidency, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:: United States of America

726. The Twilight of US Dollar Hegemony and the Coming Multipolar World

Author:: Armin Krishnan and Hanna Samir Kassab
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The hegemony of the dollar is fundamental to the primacy of the United States in the international system, perhaps even more so than US military superiority. The US government can afford to spend several times more on its armed forces than its military competitors because it has the ability to sustain seemingly unlimited levels of debt thanks to the relative strength of the US dollar. Other nations have been willing to buy US debt and hold large reserves of dollars, which has kept the value of the dollar reasonably stable compared to other currencies. The authors argue that there are clear signs that the dollar's hegemony is in decline and that this could lead to a multipolar world in which the United States is just one great power among others. The article will discuss the reasons why the US dollar is so important to US power, why the dollar's attractiveness is declining and how the unprecedented sanctions imposed by Russia in response to the Russian incursion into Ukraine may have inadvertently accelerated the emergence of a multipolar world.
Topic:: Debt, Sanctions, Armed Forces, Currency, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

727. Cuban Privilege: The Making of Immigrant Inequality in America

Author:: Susan Eckstein
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: About the speaker: Susan Eckstein is a Professor in the Pardee School of Global Studies and in the Sociology Department at Boston University. She has written numerous books and articles on Mexican urban poor, political-economic developments in Cuba, Cuban immigrants, immigration policy, impacts of Latin American revolutions, and edited books on Latin American social movements and social rights, and on immigrant impacts in their homelands.
Topic:: Poverty, Inequality, and Immigrants
Political Geography:: Cuba, North America, and United States of America

728. Starr Forum: Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East

Author:: Steven Simon and Andrew Bacevich
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Speaker: Steve Simon is the Robert E Wilhelm Fellow at the MIT Center for International Studies (CIS). He is a non-resident senior research analyst with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft—a think tank based in Washington, DC. He served as the National Security Council (NSC) senior director for the Middle East and North Africa during the Obama Administration and as the NSC senior director for counterterrorism in the Clinton White House. These assignments followed a fifteen-year career at the US Department of State and academic teaching posts. His newly published book is “Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East” (Penguin Random House, April 2023). The book will be available for purchase at the event.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, and State Department
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

729. Starr Forum | The Iraq Invasion: 20 years Later

Author:: Peter Krause, Marsin Alshamary, Roger Petersen, and Steven Simon
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: In recognition of the 20th anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq, experts discuss the history behind the war, lessons learned on state-building, and provide commentary on that nation's future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, State Building, Iraq War, and Invasion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

730. United States Diplomacy and the 1973 War

Author:: Daniel C. Kurtzer
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The 1973 Arab-Israeli War ushered in a period of active American diplomacy that contributed to two Egyptian-Israeli disengagement agreements, one Syrian-Israeli disengagement agreement, and, several years later, the Camp David Accords and the Egypt-Israel Treaty of Peace. The successes of the American efforts masked a number of significant weaknesses in concept, strategy, and tactics that would plague U.S. diplomacy in the decades that followed. The story of the Arab-Israeli conflict can be told through “before and after” narratives of critical inflection points. The period after World War I—which witnessed the adoption of the League of Nations Mandate for Palestine—was unlike anything that preceded the Great War. The period after the 1948 war—Israel’s war of independence and Palestine’s nakba—upturned history and took the central characters of that era in an entirely different direction from what preceded. The same can be said for the June 1967 war.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Henry Kissinger, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, 1973 War, and 1967 War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, Egypt, and United States of America

731. Israel and the United States Did Not See the 1973 War Coming

Author:: Zaki Shalom
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Israel’s mistaken pre-war assumptions about the 1973 War caused it to fail to foresee the potential outbreak of a war with Egypt and Syria. What were these calculations based on and why did the United States follow suit? In early October 1973, Israeli intelligence agencies began to receive information regarding Egypt’s (and Syria’s) intention to launch a war against Israel in the coming days. The timing of the expected offensive was not yet known. Only in the early morning of October 6, 1973, would a highly reliable intelligence agent of the Mossad inform Israeli authorities that war would begin in the late afternoon hours. The exact time was not mentioned, but for one reason or another the Israelis believed the Egyptian military offensive would begin at 6:00 pm. Concurrently, Egypt began to deploy massive military power along the Suez Canal, very close to Israel’s military forces on the other side of the canal. The war broke out at 2:00 pm—four hours before the expected time.
Topic:: Intelligence, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Armed Conflict, Military, and 1973 War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Syria, Egypt, and United States of America

732. Crisis: Bureaucratic Politics, the Trump Administration, and Covid-19

Author:: Aaron Mannes
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the interplay between bureaucratic politics and decision-making processes within the Trump administration during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic response was shaped by the pulling and tugging between key players, including Vice President Mike Pence, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the National Security Council, and President Trump himself. Despite facing resistance from some officials, Trump often achieved his preferred policy outputs, such as undermining public health measures, by relying on a cadre of supportive aides. However, in areas like drug approvals, bureaucratic resistance proved more effective in countering Trump's demands. The paper concludes that the administration's overall pandemic response was abysmal, highlighting how Trump's inexperience and management style exacerbated the challenges posed by a complex crisis that threatened both human lives and economic stability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Leadership, Donald Trump, COVID-19, Management, and International Politics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

733. Beyond Erasure and Profiling: Cultivating Strong and Vibrant Arab American Communities in Chicagoland

Author:: Nadine Naber, Nicole Nguyen, Chris D. Poulos, Ivan Arenas, and Louise Cainkar
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:: This report captures the conditions and experiences of Arab Americans in the Chicagoland area. The report uses demographic research, surveys, focus group data, as well as expert commentaries by organizers and academics to analyze how systemic inequities and anti-Arab/anti-Muslim racism affect the lives of Arab Americans in employment, education, health care, housing, and policing. The report engages with the diversity of experiences among Arab American communities and their common challenge in navigating being at once hypervisible as a result of commonplace stereotypes as well as invisible due to being classified as white by government agencies and due to the general lack of knowledge about Arab Americans in our society. This report was produced in partnership with several Chicagoland Arab American community organizations: UIC’s Arab American Cultural Center, Arab American Action Network, Arab American Family Services, Middle Eastern Immigrant and Refugee Alliance, Sanad Social Services, and the Syrian Community Network. By mapping the challenges facing Arab American communities and making proposals for change, the report will be used as a resource for advocates working to build strong and vibrant Arab American communities.
Topic:: Minorities, Community, Racism, Arabs, and Racial Profiling
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

734. How an international agreement on methane emissions can pave the way for enhanced global cooperation on climate change

Author:: Kimberly Clausing, Luis Garicano, and Catherine Wolfram
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, the United States has for the first time implemented a methane emissions fee as a backstop to new methane regulations in the oil and gas sectors. The European Union is also implementing methane regulations on fossil energy. Methane is a short-lived but potent greenhouse gas, and reducing it is imperative for limiting global temperature rise to the 1.5°C target. Among the primary sources of methane emissions (including agriculture, fossil fuels, and waste), the oil and gas sectors have the greatest low-cost abatement potential. Clausing and colleagues recommend that the United States and the European Union coordinate their methane reduction policies and eventually impose border adjustments on imports from countries that fail to raise their standards. The aim would be to encourage oil and gas exporters to adopt comparable regulations or, if they fail to do so, pay a border adjustment fee on exports to the two jurisdictions. A US-EU methane border adjustment policy in oil and gas would reduce methane emissions by an estimated 15 to 45 percent worldwide, while having an indiscernible effect on key energy prices US and EU households face. With time, most major energy importers would ideally join the coalition of countries cooperating on both stringent domestic regulations on oil and gas production and border adjustments on any dirty, nonregulating exporters. Such an international agreement would help defuse frictions caused by differing climate policies and increase incentives for ambitious climate policy action worldwide.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

735. How US chip controls on China benefit and cost Korean firms

Author:: Martin Chorzempa
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Export controls have become one of the most contentious battlegrounds in US-China technology competition. US semiconductor export controls aimed at China, however, have also embroiled allies such as South Korea. These controls largely do not affect Korean firms' chip sales to China, but Korean firms are vulnerable because they have large chip production facilities in China, which make around 40 percent of the memory chips for these firms. Those facilities in China rely on access to semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) or servicing from not only the United States but also other countries that have imposed controls on exporting advanced SME to China. Although the United States is unlikely to shut off access to the technology needed to keep the plants running for the foreseeable future, it has signaled that it will not allow new technology needed to upgrade those facilities, so they will become uncompetitive over the next few years and will need to be shuttered or sold off. For future production, Korean firms will need to build new facilities at great (albeit subsidized) expense, amortizing the sunk costs of operations in China over the coming years. At the same time, the controls have created significant benefits for Korean firms by shutting off Chinese competition for their memory businesses. Yet benefiting from the tensions between superpowers comes with serious risks. Firms and governments must deal with much greater uncertainty and evaluate the risk of their dependence on both the United States and China.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Business, Exports, Manufacturing, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China, South Korea, and United States of America

736. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has cemented the European Union's commitment to carbon pricing

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The European Union managed to overcome Russian energy blackmail in 2022 and used the political motivation from this national security crisis to accelerate its decarbonization process. The planned dramatic increase in the scope of carbon pricing in the European Union can herald the total decarbonization of sectors covered in the EU Emissions Trading System and expand into important new ones. The interplay between the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and the US Inflation Reduction Act may cause transatlantic trade friction. But these two approaches could also offer a path to greater cooperation. Kirkegaard outlines proposals for how both the European Union and the United States can implement additional policies to secure their comprehensive decarbonization.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

737. Despite disruptions, US-China trade is likely to grow

Author:: Megan Hogan and Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The United States and China hit record trade levels in 2022, despite a prickly relationship, suggesting that calls for severe or even total economic decoupling between the world’s two economic superpowers may be ill-advised, say Hogan and Hufbauer. The dollar value of US-China trade grew significantly between 2019 and 2022, notwithstanding declines in trade flows of certain products such as semiconductors and aircraft due to the trade war. The persistence and even growth of the two countries’ total trade despite political and economic disputes reflects the mutual benefit that private firms see in this commercial relationship. The authors conclude that partial decoupling between the United States and China has not, so far, redrawn the world trade map. Nor does it seem likely to do so on an aggregate trade basis between now and 2025.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Trade Policy, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

738. America's payoff from engaging in world markets since 1950 was almost $2.6 trillion in 2022

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Megan Hogan
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: International trade may not be as popular in the United States as it once was, but this updated PIIE study demonstrates that the payoff to the US economy from globalization has been significant. Gains from trade since 1950, facilitated by vastly improved transportation and communications, added up to $2.6 trillion in 2022, lifting US GDP by 10 percent. These gains averaged $7,800 per person and $19,500 per household in the United States in 2022. Despite these gains, trade barriers were erected under former president Donald Trump and continued under the Biden administration, spurred by concerns over trade-related job loss. These protectionist policies, coupled with the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic, have slowed globalization. To be sure, trade has inflicted losses on certain US workers. Between 2001 and 2016, more than 300,000 workers annually lost or switched jobs because of imports. In comparison, more than 50 million workers change jobs each year. Americans enjoy large but less visible gains from trade through cheaper and more varied products and increased productivity at firms. Instead of restricting trade, US policymakers should adopt better safety nets for displaced workers and ensure that economic growth is more widely shared.
Topic:: Globalization, Markets, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

739. How the United States solved South Korea’s problems with electric vehicle subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act

Author:: Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: South Korea felt “betrayed” when President Joseph R. Biden Jr. signed his administration’s flagship climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, into law. This paper first shows how the Biden administration addressed Korea’s concerns about the law’s effect on its sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States. Thanks in part to the Treasury Department’s regulations written to implement the law, Korean exports of EVs to the United States grew even after the IRA went into force. Whether these actions by the Biden administration are enough to assuage the concerns of the Koreans—and other allies adversely affected by the IRA—remains to be seen. Furthermore, the US accommodation of Korean concerns came with tradeoffs by offsetting key incentives Congress may have intended in passing the IRA. The paper examines the potential impact of the law on South Korean battery companies, and it provides an initial exploration into how the Korean government responded to the IRA by adjusting its own policy mix of EV consumer tax credits and industrial policy for its EV plants and battery makers.
Topic:: Climate Change, Science and Technology, Inflation, Energy, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

740. How trade cooperation by the United States, the European Union, and China can fight climate change

Author:: Chad P. Bown and Kimberly Clausing
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Recent efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have revealed different policy priorities; the United States and China have emphasized subsidy-based approaches, and the European Union has emphasized carbon pricing. These divergent policy choices—some lowering energy costs, others raising them—raise concerns about industry competitiveness and have implications for upstream and downstream firms in supply chains. This paper identifies the trade tensions resulting from varying climate policy approaches and describes policy efforts to address them. It then describes the role of a rules-based trading system in tackling the challenges that these distinct policy approaches create, examining World Trade Organization (WTO) rules on subsidies, border measures, and export restrictions. The authors suggest that the United States, the European Union, and China prioritize reforms to those rules as a path forward for cooperation on trade and climate. Such an approach would be an important starting point toward creating a functioning multilateral system.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Trade, Cooperation, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

741. The Rapid Response Labor Mechanism of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement

Author:: Chad P. Bown and Kathleen Claussen
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) introduced a new compliance institution for labor rights in trade agreements: the facility-specific Rapid Response Labor Mechanism (RRM). The RRM was developed to tackle one particular thorn in the side of North American integration—labor rights for Mexican workers—which had had detrimental, long-term political-economic consequences for the two countries’ trade relationship. This paper reviews the unique political-economic moment in the United States and Mexico that prompted the creation of this tool. It describes how the RRM works and the considerable financial and human resources the two governments have brought to bear to operationalize it. The paper then reports a number of stylized facts on how governments used the RRM during its first three years, largely in the auto sector. It proposes paths of potentially fruitful political-economic research to understand the full implications of the RRM and concludes with preliminary lessons as well as a discussion of the potential for policymakers to transpose facility-specific mechanisms for labor or other issues, such as the environment, into future economic agreements.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Labor Issues, Free Trade, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

742. The minilateral moment in the Middle East: An opportunity for US regional policy?

Author:: Jean-Loup Samaan
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “The Minilateral Moment in the Middle East: An Opportunity for US Regional Policy,” the Atlantic Council’s nonresident senior fellow Jean-Loup Samaan analyzes how regional powers are reconsidering the multilateral balance of their foreign policy arrangements, and the emerging implications for US Middle East policy. Over the past three years, the Middle East has experienced major intra-regional changes. After a decade of fierce competition between two blocs—one led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the other by Qatar and Turkey—both parties now seem willing to cooperate. One of the key features of this new regional environment, according to Samaan, has been the growth of so-called minilateral initiatives that regroup several countries on an ad hoc basis. Samaan also addresses how powers outside the region have embarked on a similar path of building relationships with countries in the Middle East. Russia’s recent attempt to build a similar framework with Turkey and Iran, he argues, provides evidence of how minilateralism is increasingly considered an effective instrument of regional diplomacy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Resilience, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

743. Technological and policy pathways to accelerate US industrial decarbonization

Author:: Joseph Webster
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Industrial decarbonization in the United States will be an important element in lowering global emissions. US industry released 1.4 gigatons of carbon in 2021, about 28 percent of all US emissions. Lowering these greenhouse gas contributions and modeling effective strategies to achieve reductions will go a long way toward not only lowering the US carbon footprint, but also leading global decarbonization efforts. To accelerate US industrial decarbonization, policymakers should start with the lowest hanging fruit, such as electrification or cleaning hydrogen for existing use cases, and then expand to more difficult areas. Greening the electricity sector would sharply curtail emissions from electricity-intensive industries, while switching to clean hydrogen in refineries will likely accelerate hydrogen’s relevance for other promising but unproven use cases, such as in steelmaking. By targeting “easier” challenges, policymakers can achieve decarbonization gains as quickly as possible. The most effective paths to accelerate industrial decarbonization will require permitting reform and pursuing a comprehensive understanding of clean energy deployment, including in transmission. While the United States has enhanced fiscal support for clean energy development, policymakers across the country at all levels of government should reduce permitting review times and ensure that projects are not stuck in regulatory limbo indefinitely. The United States should also research methods of decarbonization, including nuclear energy development, and wires-vs-pipeline transportation costs for green hydrogen. To limit the consequences of climate change, the United States must urgently advance a suite of efforts to guarantee the domestic and international industrial emissions reductions the world needs.
Topic:: Environment, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

744. A US agenda for action in Sudan’s information environment

Author:: Cameron Hudson
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: There are few African countries that have received the same degree of high-level and sustained attention from the US government, during the administrations of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as the Republic of Sudan. While this engagement stems in large part from a long history of Washington leading diplomatic efforts to isolate the Sudanese government for its support for terrorism during the 1990s, advance the peace process in the country’s north-south civil war, and eventually punish the government for the Darfur genocide, Washington’s renewed diplomatic engagement at the time of Sudan’s 2018 popular uprising reflected a sense of opportunity that real change was potentially coming to the country. The historic events during the spring and summer of 2019, beginning with longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir’s arrest and removal by senior army officers and the brokering of a civilian-military hybrid government, created both an opportunity and what many in Washington saw as an obligation to help Sudan’s transition succeed. After decades of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, the installation of a civilian-led government created the minimal condition that allowed Washington and Western allied governments to begin the task of providing a trusted local partner with the assistance to begin reforming the political system, stabilizing the economy, and transforming the armed forces that would eventually enable a full transition to democracy, one of the popular demands of the revolution. By late 2019, during a historic visit to Washington by Sudan’s newly named prime minister, Abdallah Hamdok, the Trump administration announced a process to normalize diplomatic relations with Sudan through an exchange of ambassadors, among other steps. Privately, the Trump administration also set about the task of constructing an assistance package that would meet the moment and provide the technical, financial, and development assistance needed to demonstrate a true “democracy dividend” to the vast majority of average Sudanese who were by this time struggling under the weight of financial collapse brought on by the one-two punch of regime neglect and, soon, COVID-19 shutdowns. Washington, however, was both ill-postured and slow to foresee the monumental political opening occurring in the early days of the revolution and then further delayed by an interlocking web of restrictions and prohibitions, some of them self-imposed and some imposed by the US Congress, that limited its ability to scale up resources in a timely manner. In addition to the challenges of having to undo more than twenty-five years of bureaucratic restrictions and red tape, Washington also needed to scale up its human resources inside Sudan that had largely dwindled over the years.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Internet, Conflict, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, North America, and United States of America

745. The global future of nuclear energy

Author:: Matt Bowen
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Energy supply is an integral and essential part of modern society. Since nuclear energy provides low-carbon, baseload power, it could play a larger global role in addressing growing energy demands while reducing the risks of climate change and air pollution. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has also highlighted energy security as a national imperative that nuclear power could help countries to achieve. Both preserving the existing fleet of reactors and building new advanced nuclear power plants could play a role in achieving deep decarbonization of electricity supply systems by mid-century. Public support, designs with greater inherent safety, licensing advanced reactors, and reasonable costs and schedules will be integral parts of this strategy. Nuclear power’s future would also benefit from national governments putting renewed emphasis on spent nuclear fuel disposition. This report by Matt Bowen discusses a number of actions that the United States, Japan, and other civil nuclear allies could pursue so that nuclear energy can play a larger role in overcoming the challenges related to energy demand, energy security, and associated environmental and public health risks.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, Europe, Ukraine, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

746. Transitioning to the clean energy grid: A deep dive into the levelized cost of electricity

Author:: Ken Berlin and Frank Willey
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The climate crisis requires the world to transition rapidly from fossil fuel-based to renewable-based electricity generation. Studies of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)—the average price at which a power plant must sell each megawatt-hour of electricity to recover its costs—show that renewable electricity generation is well-positioned to meet energy transition goals because it is cost-competitive. LCOE suggests that on-shore wind and solar generation are the cheapest power options in the United States and for two-thirds of the world population. But LCOE does not tell the full story.
Topic:: Electricity, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

747. The sixth domain: The role of the private sector in warfare

Author:: Franklin D. Kramer
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The United States and its allies have for some time recognized, as NATO doctrine provides, five operational domains—air, land, maritime, cyberspace, and space.1 Each of those arenas fully fits with the understanding of a domain as a “specified sphere of activity” and, in each, militaries undertake critical wartime actions. But in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, certain key operational activities have been undertaken by the private sector as part of the conduct of warfare.2 By way of example, private-sector companies have been instrumental both in providing effective cybersecurity and in maintaining working information technology networks. As part of such efforts, these firms have established coordinated mechanisms to work with relevant government actors. These operational and coordinated activities by the private sector demonstrate that there is a “sixth domain”—specifically, the “sphere of activities” of the private sector in warfare—that needs to be included as part of warfighting constructs, plans, preparations, and actions if the United States and its allies are to prevail in future conflicts. As will be elaborated below, that sphere of activities focuses mainly on the roles of information and critical infrastructures, including their intersections—ranging from the transmission and protection of information to the assurance of critical infrastructure operations. Many of the United States’ activities in the sixth domain will take place in the United States homeland. However, while “defending the homeland” is listed as the first priority in the 2022 National Defense Strategy, insufficient attention has been paid to the actions that will be required of the private sector beyond just the defense industrial base as part of accomplishing an effective defense.3 Likewise, when US military forces are engaged in overseas combat, private-sector companies in allied countries (as well as US companies operating overseas) will be critical for the effectiveness of US forces, as well as for the allies’ own militaries. In short, establishing an effective strategy for the private sector in warfare is a key requirement for the United States and its allies.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, Private Sector, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

748. Reimagining Africa’s role in revitalizing the global economy

Author:: Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The world economy now finds itself at a critical juncture, facing a series of extraordinary setbacks that have pushed down growth. Reigniting growth requires a unique combination of targeted policies, robust international cooperation, and a renewed look at the global economy, with a particular focus on Africa. Due to its burgeoning and youthful population, abundant natural resources, and a strategic geographical location that can facilitate global trade, Africa can play a major role in—and should be front and center of—any renewed efforts for revitalizing the global economy. A decade-long robust, inclusive, and green growth in Africa will not only move hundreds of millions living in the continent out of poverty but will also accelerate a global rebound and recovery. However, for this to materialize, Africa needs substantial investments in its failing and inadequate physical and social infrastructure. With access to basic infrastructure, alongside efficient institutions as well as its young population, massive natural endowments, and strategic location Africa can seize its economic potential and act as an engine of growth for the global economy for decades to come. Therefore, it is crucial to support Africa to unleash its immense economic potential, through massive and focused investments in the continent’s human capital and its physical and social infrastructure.
Topic:: Development, International Organization, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, and United States of America

749. The role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan crisis

Author:: Gregory Weaver
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The potential for a conflict over Taiwan is increasing due to China’s nuclear and conventional military buildup and the threat of two simultaneous conflicts with China and Russia, which would severely stress the ability of US and allied conventional forces to win in both theaters. Nuclear weapons will cast a long shadow over a Taiwan conflict and could play multiple roles in the deterrence and warfighting strategies and operations of both the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A conflict over Taiwan has a number of attributes that will shape those roles. Those attributes make the potential for limited nuclear escalation real and uncontrolled nuclear escalation possible. In order to prevent war and escalation in war, US policymakers and military planners must take the role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan conflict seriously. The United States should communicate four focused deterrent messages to China and reassure its allies and partners that it can deter Chinese nuclear use. The United States should reevaluate its theater nuclear capability requirements for a Taiwan conflict and carefully analyze options to defeat a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan with limited nuclear strikes if necessary. Finally, the United States must credibly address the potential for collaborative or opportunistic aggression by China and Russia in an environment in which both are peer nuclear adversaries. This requires determining what the US strategy should be to address the two-peer threat, optimizing US and allied conventional forces to address it, and reshaping US nuclear capabilities if necessary. The United States needs to know now whether it is going to require a nuclear force that is larger, or different, or both, because changing the current modernization program requires immediate action to address the threats in time.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Conflict, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

750. If the EU was a State in the United States: Comparing Economic Growth between EU and US States

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief is a warning call about Europe’s poor economic growth and its consequences for prosperity. The long-term trend of Gross Domestic Product per capita is crucially important but not always easy to grasp. While it’s common to compare levels of growth between countries in a single year, the reality is that it is the long-term trend that matters. An economy that grows at 3 percent per year will double in 24 years but an economy that grows at 1 percent per year will double only in 48 years. For a long time now, the average growth rate in mature and developed European economies has been closer to 1 than 3 percent. The EU has had positive economic growth but it has been slow in comparison with other developed economies. If European countries were states in the United States, many of them would belong to the group of poorest countries. In this Policy Brief, we rank GDP per capita in EU countries and US states, and the result is dispiriting. The ranking of GDP per capita in 14 EU member states, which together represented 89 percent of EU GDP, was lower in 2021 than in 2000. For instance, France and Germany were as rich as the 36th and the 31st US states in 2000, but twenty-one years later, French GDP per capita was lower than the 48th poorest US state, Arkansas, while German GDP per capita had fallen to become as prosperous as the 38th US state, Oklahoma. GDP per capita in Central and Eastern European countries have grown considerably but their relatively small size and lower starting point stop them from reverting the trend of relative European economic decline. The result of this economic divergence between EU member states and US states is a growing wedge of GDP per capita between the EU and the US, which in 2021 was as large as 82 percent. If the trend continues, the prosperity gap between the average European and American in 2035 will be as big as between the average European and Indian today. This Policy Brief tells a story about the EU’s unfulfilled economic potential but also offers a ray of hope. If the US states have managed to sustain robust rates of economic growth, the EU member states can do it too. However, to do so the EU must bring back economic growth and competitiveness to the centre of its economic policy. If Europe is to face the challenges presented by climate change and the digital transition, the growing burden of an aging society and defence budgets, higher economic growth is not an option but a necessity.
Topic:: European Union, GDP, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

751. National Science Foundation Technology Innovation Partnership Evaluation

Author:: Barry Bozeman, Nick Hart, Randolph Lyon, Theresa Pardo, and Janet Weiss
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: The National Science Foundation (NSF) is an independent federal agency established in 1950 by Congress "to promote the progress of science; to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare; to secure the national defense." NSF supports research and the fields of fundamental science and engineering, except for medical sciences, and helps the United States drive leading discoveries. In March 2022, NSF established the Directorate for Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships (TIP). TIP was created to focus on significant challenges and opportunities across the entire science and engineering enterprise and to strengthen and scale the critical research that will drive future technologies and solutions. The NSF required an assessment of the organizational and management structure of the NSF's Directorate for Technology, Innovation and Partnerships. The Academy: Evaluated and made recommendations to efficiently and effectively implement the Directorate for Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships; and Evaluated and made recommendations to ensure coordination of the Directorate for Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships with other directorates and offices of the Foundation and other Federal agencies.
Topic:: Government, Science and Technology, Innovation, Management, Performance Evaluation, and Public Administration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

752. U.S. Department of Agriculture National Finance Center Modernization Assessment

Author:: Margaret Graves, Alan Balutis, Anthony Scardino, and Renee Wynn
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Finance Center (NFC) is an Office of Personnel Management-certified shared service center that provides payroll, human resources management, and financial services. The NFC assists the USDA and other government and quasi-government agencies in achieving cost-effective, standardized, and interoperable solutions that provide the functionality to support those agencies’ strategic financial management and human resource management direction. The NFC services more than 170 diverse agencies and provides payroll services to more than 600,000 federal employees. The NFC’s core operations are in New Orleans, LA, with additional sites in Washington, DC, and Denver, CO. The NFC’s backup facilities are in St. Louis, MO, and Shreveport, LA. The USDA NFC required an assessment of its mission and operations as a shared service provider and its organizational capacity to meet ongoing mission requirements efficiently and effectively going forward. The USDA contracted with the Academy to provide a modernization assessment of the NFC. The Academy Analyzed the NFC's governance and finance structures, supporting technology systems and processes, internal organization and infrastructure, and stakeholder engagement; Reviewed how the NFC evaluates and benchmarks its service levels and performance; Examined how the NFC budgets as a shared service provider—including workload forecasting, capital investment, operations and sustainment, and rate/fee setting—and considered the benefits of alternative funding structures; Examined the NFC's collaboration with its stakeholders, including customers, Congress, other USDA components and federal agencies, and the OMB; Reviewed the resources needed to support the NFC in its mission delivery; and Identified, with NFC, the "desired future state" of the NFC and what supporting functional changes are needed for the NFC to achieve that desired future state.
Topic:: Modernization, Information Technology, Financial Management, and Public Administration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

753. National Park Service: Land Acquisition

Author:: John Koskinen, Hannah Sistare Clark, Norman Dong, Ingrid Reed, and Yan Tang
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: This report offers an assessment of two National Park Service (NPS) programs connected with lands – the Land Resources Program and the American Battlefield Protection Program (ABPP). The Land Resources Program is managed by the Land Resources Division (LRD) and is responsible for acquiring land within the authorized boundary of a park unit for visitor use and preservation of resources. The ABPP, on the other hand, is a financial grant-making program that assists external parties wishing to acquire battlefield lands for preservation purposes. The five-member Panel issued twenty-four recommendations to LRD leadership on the topics of policy, systems, human resources, communications, and appraisals. They issued an additional five recommendations on staffing, outreach and applicants, metrics, and transfers/conversations and congressional intent to ABPP leadership. The report includes an implementation plan with short, medium, and long-term suggestions for NPS to adopt the twenty-nine total recommendations.
Topic:: Public Administration, National Park Service, and Land Management
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

754. Missile Defense Study

Author:: William C. Greenwalt, Elliott Branch, Susan Kinney-Perkins, William Philips, and Joseph Westphal
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: The Department of Defense (DoD) contracted with the Academy for an independent study of the roles and responsibilities of the Department of Defense components related to missile defense. Pursuant to the FY2022 NDAA Section 1675, the Secretary and the Academy entered into an agreement by which the Academy carried out a study regarding the roles and responsibilities of the various components of the Department of Defense as they pertain to Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD). The study includes: A comprehensive assessment and analysis of existing Department component roles and responsibilities for the full range of IAMD activities, including the establishment of requirements, research and development, system acquisition, and operations and sustainment. Identification of gaps in component capability of each applicability component for performing its assigned IAMD roles and responsibilities. Identification of opportunities for deconflicting mission sets, eliminating areas of unnecessary duplication, reducing waste, and improving efficiency across the full range of IAMD activities. Development of a timetable for the implementation of the opportunities identified above. Development of recommendations for such legislative or administrative action as the Academy considers appropriate pursuant to developing analysis of the above. The Academy assembled a five-member Panel of Academy Fellows to oversee and guide this study.
Topic:: Missile Defense, Public Administration, Organizational Assessment, and Department of Defense (DoD)
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

755. U.S. Coast Guard Academy Admissions Process Assessment

Author:: David Chu, Erik Bergrud, Jennifer Brinkerhoff, Michael Dominguez, and Kyle Farmbry
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: The U.S. Coast Guard Academy (USCGA), located in New London, CT, is a four-year, tuition-free federal service academy that prepares its cadets physically, intellectually, and ethically for careers in the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG). Graduates earn a commission as an Ensign and are obligated to serve five years in the service. Cadets can earn a Bachelor of Science degree in one of nine engineering and professional majors while also participating in intercollegiate and club athletics, music, community service, and other extracurricular activities. Section 8272 and Section 8274 of the Coast Guard Academy Improvement Act, part of the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2021, required the Secretary of Homeland Security to contract with the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) to conduct two discrete one-year studies focusing on the USCGA. The first study, completed in February 2022, assessed the USCGA’s cultural competency. This study assessed USCGA’s admission processes and concluded in May 2023. The admissions assessment included: A study of the process USCGA uses to identify candidates for recruitment, recruit applicants, assist applicants in the application process, evaluate applicants, and make admissions decisions. A discussion of the consideration during the admissions process of diversity, including race, ethnicity, gender, religion, sexual orientation, socioeconomic background, and geographic origin. An overview of the admissions processes at other Federal service academies, including a discussion of diversity and analysis of how the congressional nominations requirement impacts those processes and overall student demographics. A determination regarding how a congressional nomination requirement for CGA admissions could impact diversity among the student body and the ability of the USCG to effectively carry out the Service’s primary duties. Recommendations for improving USCGA admissions processes, including whether a congressional nominations process should be integrated, and for restructuring the admissions office to be headed by a civilian with significant relevant higher education recruitment experience.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Higher Education, Coast Guard, and Admissions
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

756. NATO and strategic competition: Time for Allies to step up

Author:: Mark Webber
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: 2022 was marked by the publication of a string of high-level strategy documents by the NATO allies: the National Defense Strategy (NDS) in the United States, the National Strategic Review in France, the Dutch Defense White Paper, and the Danish Foreign and Security Policy Strategy. In January 2023, Estonia updated its National Security Concept. A refresh of the UK’s 2021 Integrated Review is due in the spring of 2023. Germany’s first post-Cold War National Security Strategy is expected to be published around the same time. These documents all share a preoccupation with what NATO’s own 2022 Strategic Concept has referred to as “rising strategic competition” in a “contested and unpredictable” world.1 This strategic convergence indicates a strengthening of solidarity in view of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Chinese efforts to extend its global footprint. How NATO responds over the long haul will be shaped by American priorities. The United States, former German Defense Minister, Christine Lambrecht, noted in January 2023, “may not be able to guarantee the defense of Europe to the extent that it used to” as it turned its attention to the Indo-Pacific region. “[W]e Europeans”, would in consequence, need to do more to generate “military strength”.2 This is not a fringe opinion. German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and French President, Emmanuel Macron, have argued essentially the same.3 Actions, of course, speak louder than words. This Policy Brief shows that European commitment is still lagging. In view of the urgency of the challenge, greater effort and prioritization are required.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

757. The Iran nuclear deal: consequences of moribund diplomacy

Author:: Mark Fitzpatrick
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: On 4 November 2022, United States President Joe Biden privately remarked that the 2015 Iran nuclear accord known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was “dead”, but that the US would not formally say so.1 US working- level officials insist a return to the deal remains possible, but efforts to revive it are increasingly fraught. For months, Iran’s leaders have appeared uninterested in complying with the deal, instead conditioning their country’s return on unrealistic demands that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) cease investigation into signs of Iran’s past nuclear weapons development. Since mid-September 2022, Western attention has been distracted by other aspects of Tehran’s foreign and domestic policy, including the regime’s brutal crackdown of domestic protests against female veiling rules, its complicity in Russian drone attacks in Ukraine, and its dubious detention of US and European citizens. With political room for a diplomatic solution rapidly evaporating, and Iran’s “breakout period” for producing weapons- grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) shortened to a few days, NATO member states must anticipate that states like Israel could opt for a kinetic “Plan B” solution to Iran’s nuclear programme, with potential negative spill-over. With escalation likely before a UN ban on missile trade with Iran expires in October 2023, concerned states should intensify pursuit of peaceful alternatives.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, JCPOA, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

758. The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal

Author:: David Schockenhoff and Michael Kleiman
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: As scepticism towards China is rising among policymakers, businesses grow more concerned about the potential economic fallout from an escalation in US-China tariff policy. Oxford Economics was commissioned by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) to help inform the policymaking process by examining two scenarios that could materialize if China’s Permanent Normalized Trade Relations (PNTR) status was revoked – including the increase of US tariffs on Chinese goods to column 2 rates as well as a Chinese retaliation imposing pre-WTO rates on US goods. Our analysis incorporates state-of-the art trade and economic models, including the Oxford Economics GEM, and finds that the US could lose up to $1.9trn in output over the five-year period following a China PNTR repeal. This is our third study for USCBC after examining the impact of the US-China relationship and associated scenarios in two previous reports (2017 and 2021).
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Tariffs, Trade, Supply Chains, Policymaking, Decoupling, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

759. Chipping Away: Assessing and addressing the labor market gap facing the US semiconductor industry

Author:: Dan Martin and Hamilton Galloway
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Thanks in large part to enactment of the landmark 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, a significant share of expected new chip manufacturing capacity and R&D is expected to be located in the US. We project the semiconductor industry’s US-based workforce will grow by nearly 115,000 jobs by 2030, from approximately 345,000 jobs today to approximately 460,000 jobs by the end of the decade. We estimate that roughly 67,000, or 58%, of these new jobs risk going unfilled at current degree completion rates. Of the unfilled jobs: 39% will be technicians, most of whom have two-year degrees or less; 35% will be computer scientists, or engineers with four-year degrees; and 26% will be engineers at the master’s or PhD level. For the US economy as a whole, we estimate that 3.85 million additional jobs in these three technical fields will be created by the end of 2030. Of those, 1.4 million jobs risk going unfilled unless the pipeline for such workers is expanded. To address the skills gap facing the broader economy and the semiconductor industry, we present three core recommendations to strengthen the US technical workforce: Strengthen support for regional partnerships and programs aimed at growing the pipeline for skilled technicians for semiconductor manufacturing and other advanced manufacturing sectors. Grow the domestic STEM pipeline for engineers and computer scientists vital to the semiconductor industry and other sectors that are critical to the future economy. Retain and attract more international advanced degree students within the US economy.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Regulation, Manufacturing, Labor Market, Workforce, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

760. The Comeback of Industrial Policy. The Next Geopolitical Great Game

Author:: Alessandro Gili, Davide Tentori, and Paola Magri
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Industrial policies are the key element underlying today’s geopolitical scramble and a pillar of national security. Reacting to Western weaknesses and bottlenecks in the global supply chains, highlighted by multiple shocks such as the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the recent Israel-Hamas war, the US in first place and the EU later have started to introduce new industrial legislation aimed at making up for lost ground with respect to other industrial powerhouses, such as China. Besides being policy tools to accelerate the green and digital transitions, however, the US Inflation Reduction Act and the Net Zero Industry Act, as well as the US and the EU Chips Acts, entail subsidies, local content requirements and export controls targeted at strengthening the domestic industrial base for critical technologies, fostering strategic autonomy and de-risking from excessive foreign dependencies. This race poses risks for the weaponisation of industrial policies and fragmentation of international trade and also potentially jeopardises technological development. How can we strike a balance between economic security and efficiency? Which sectors are the most critical and which ones are the leading global powers pursuing? What will the consequences be for global value chains and international trade? Is it possible to reach an agreement on rules for a new level playing field to prevent economic competition turning into economic warfare?
Topic:: Development, Industrial Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

761. Improving the contestability of e-commerce in two jurisdictions: the Amazon case

Author:: Fiona Scott Morton
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Antitrust cases against Amazon in the United States reveal that the e-commerce giant has developed algorithms that mimic price protection contracts called MFNs (from most-favoured nations, a term borrowed from international trade), even though the company said publicly that it ended the contracts themselves some years ago. MFNs are well known in antitrust enforcement for their anticompetitive effects: higher prices and less entry. The complaints describe how Amazon demotes merchants from its coveted Buy Box if Amazon finds a lower price on a rival e-commerce site, creating an incentive for merchants to set higher prices on rival sites. The European Union, the Digital Markets Act bans such contracts. This would be a good remedy for the US as well as it would restore competition with minimal harmful side effects. The US complaints describe a different scheme that penalises brands if Amazon must reduce its retail prices to match a rival retailer. The EU may have to pursue this conduct under Article 102 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union that prohibits abuse of dominance. Both the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the European Commission have found that Amazon’s policy of tying its own logistics service to Amazon Prime status raises entry barriers to rivals. The European Union remedy redesigns the Buy Box and allows rival logistics services access to consumers. This remedy provides a useful benchmark to consider in designing remedies for the FTC and for California, which is also pursuing an antitrust case against Amazon. In general, both the US and the EU gain from the enforcement actions of the other.
Topic:: Contracts, Digital Markets Act (DMA), Competition, E-Commerce, and Amazon
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

762. Corking Russian Gas: Global Economic and Political Ramifications

Author:: Scott Semet
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Awarm winter in 2022–2023, a purposive decline in consumption that caused the economy to cool, and frantic efforts to attract supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) obscured Europe’s enduring reliance on cheap Russian gas for economic growth. European winters will not always be warm, and there is not enough LNG to replace Russian gas in the short term. Efforts to wean Europe from Russian gas permanently defy economic logic. Should policymakers choose to do so, it would carry costs not only for Europe but also for the United States and the rest of the world.
Topic:: Gas, Economic Growth, Imports, Energy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

763. Terrorism and Immigration; A Risk Analysis, 1975–2022

Author:: Alex Nowrasteh
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Terrorism is a hazard to human life and material prosperity that should be addressed in a sensible manner whereby the benefits of actions taken to contain it outweigh the costs. A total of 219 foreign-born terrorists were responsible for 3,046 murders on U.S. soil from 1975 through the end of 2022. The chance of a person perishing in a terrorist attack committed by a foreigner on U.S. soil over the 48-year period studied here is 1 in 4.3 million per year. The hazard posed by foreigners who entered on different visa categories varies considerably. For instance, the annual chance of an American being murdered in a terrorist attack by a refugee is about 1 in 3.3 billion, while the annual chance of being murdered in an attack committed by an illegal immigrant is zero. Looking at this spectrum of risk, any government response to terrorism must consider the wide range of hazards posed by foreign-born terrorists who entered under various visa categories. There were 219 foreign-born terrorists who planned, attempted, or carried out attacks on U.S. soil from 1975 through 2022. Of those, 67 percent were Islamists, 16 percent were foreign nationalists, 6 percent were right-wing extremists, 5 percent were non-Islamic religious terrorists, 4 percent were left-wing extremists, and the rest were separatists, adherents of other or unknown ideologies, or targeted worshippers of specific religions.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Immigration, and Cost-Benefit Analysis
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

764. Pariah or Partner? Reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi Relationship

Author:: Jon Hoffman
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The U.S.-Saudi relationship is stuck. America’s policy toward the kingdom is rooted in flawed rationales and supported by a system of lobbying and influence designed to sustain the status quo. Those policies are proving ineffective at navigating the changing landscape, both in the Middle East and globally, while reaping virtually no benefits for the United States. The longer these fruitless policies persist, the more they will harm U.S. interests. The long-standing rationales for close U.S.-Saudi relations—centered on oil, counterterrorism, and preserving regional stability—are flawed. What Washington needs from the region on those issues is quite limited and simple to achieve. Despite the high costs and dubious benefits of the current approach to Saudi Arabia, there is a growing chorus in Washington to deepen the relationship with Riyadh. New rationales for expanding the relationship include the return of great power competition to the Middle East and the expansion of the Abraham Accords, which are increasingly being linked together as the new lodestar of Middle East policy. These new rationales also do not withstand scrutiny. It is time for a fundamental reevaluation of the U.S.-Saudi relationship. The United States should approach Saudi Arabia as it would any other state that does not share our interests or our values: from arm’s length.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Political stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

765. Trade and Investment Are Not a Balancing Act

Author:: Norbert Michel
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The trade deficit is the amount by which the value of a country’s imports exceeds the value of its exports during a given period, such as one calendar year or quarter. It is a commonly misunderstood concept that inspires harmful economic policies, such as proposals that a country “balance” its imports and exports by taxing international capital flows. Supporters of this policy hope to shrink the trade deficit (i.e., to balance imports and exports) by taxing the capital surplus that goes along with a trade deficit in the balance-of-payments framework. In the United States, senators Tammy Baldwin (D‑WI) and Josh Hawley (R‑MO) authored a 2019 bill to do this and, though it died in the Senate Banking Committee, similar legislation may appear in the future. This kind of policy is highly flawed on theoretical, empirical, and practical grounds. For starters, trade deficits and capital surpluses are merely part of a national accounting system that includes multiple arbitrarily assigned categories. In fact, even the concept of balancing in the national accounting system is not as straightforward as supporters of balancing trade flows suggest. The evidence demonstrates that there is no clear negative relationship between a trade imbalance and a country’s optimal economic performance, especially regarding employment in manufacturing, which is a common concern among politicians. At best, taxing international capital flows would fail to change the incentives that drive US consumers’ high demand for imports. At worst, it would cause a global economic recession that impoverishes millions of people and makes Americans poorer.
Topic:: Economics, Investment, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

766. Taiwan’s Urgent Need for Asymmetric Defense

Author:: Eric Gomez
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Amid deteriorating US-China relations, senior US officials have begun suggesting that a Chinese attack against Taiwan could happen soon. The conventional wisdom in Washington is that this urgent threat requires an urgent response, but too much attention has focused on the US-China military balance and too little on Taiwan’s military efforts. Taiwan’s future would likely be determined in the opening days, if not hours, of a conflict. Taiwan must prevail in two critical military operations: surviving China’s conventional bombardment and preventing the first wave of amphibious ground forces from establishing a beachhead. Taiwan would be fighting these two operations alone, but Taiwan’s military does not have the right mix of equipment, manpower, and strategy to mount an effective defense, despite the fact that the results of these operations could prove decisive for the rest of the conflict. US policymakers must press Taipei to focus on improving Taiwan’s ability to execute this narrow set of military missions and to reorient its overall strategy to one of asymmetric defense to counter Chinese advantages. If Taiwan does not or cannot do so, it is unlikely that any amount of potential US assistance or intervention could salvage the island’s position in the event of a conflict. Because these shortfalls are so important, Washington should create a sense of urgency in Taipei through security assistance measures such as conditional arms sales and limited joint training. The United States should also take care not to back Beijing into a corner where it concludes that using force is its only viable option to achieve unification with Taiwan. American assurances to China are a tough sell given Washington’s bipartisan hawkishness on China, but keeping time on Taiwan’s side is essential for the success of Taipei’s self-defense transformation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

767. Quantile Regression with an Endogenous Misclassified Binary Regressor

Author:: Carlos Lamarche
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Recent work on the conditional mean model offers the possibility of addressing misreporting of participation in social programs, which is common and has increased in all major surveys. However, researchers who employ quantile regression continue to encounter challenges in terms of estimation and statistical inference. In this work, we propose a simple two-step estimator for a quantile regression model with endogenous misreporting. The identification of the model uses a parametric first stage and information related to participation and misreporting. We show that the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We also establish that a bootstrap procedure is asymptotically valid for approximating the distribution of the estimator. Simulation studies show the small sample behavior of the estimator in comparison with other methods, including a new three-step estimator. Finally, we illustrate the novel approach using U.S. survey data to estimate the intergenerational effect of mother’s participation on welfare on daughter’s adult income.
Topic:: Survey, Quantile Regression, Endogenous Treatments, Misclassification, and Social Programs
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

768. The Conundrum of the Essential Security Exception: Can the WTO resolve the GATT Article XXI crisis and save the dispute settlement mechanism?

Author:: Stephen Kho, Yujin McNamara, Sarah Kirwin, and Brooke Davies
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: The World Trade Organization (WTO) is in an existential crisis. Ever since the United States began blocking the appointment of new Appellate Body members, the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism began slowly breaking down. As the Appellate Body lost its ability to function, WTO Members realized that they were empowered to appeal disputes they had lost at the panel level “into the void,” thereby preventing resolution. This, in turn, resulted in the filing of fewer disputes as Members instead started taking trade matters into their own hands. At the same time, Members began to more freely ignore their WTO obligations, knowing that if challenged, they could simply appeal adverse decisions “into the void” while still boasting their compliance with WTO rules because the dispute settlement mechanism would not have rendered a final decision based on a procedural technicality. Some WTO Members are now actively attempting to resuscitate the faltering dispute settlement system. Over the past year, efforts to negotiate a solution to the Appellate Body impasse have intensified between the United States and other Members, so much so that WTO Director- General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala recently suggested that dispute settlement reform could be one of the main “outcomes” of the upcoming 13th WTO Ministerial Conference.2 However, this is easier said than done. Despite recent progress in the reform discussions, the United States has seen to it that a key sticking point in the negotiations has become the justiciability of Article XXI(b) of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade of 1994 (GATT).3 Article XXI(b) is an exception that allows WTO Members to legally deviate from their trade obligations when necessary for the protection of their “essential security interests”.4 As with the Appellate Body impasse, the United States stands largely alone in taking a hard- line position that Article XXI(b) must be wholly self-judging and thus non-justiciable under the WTO. In the view of the United States, Members may unilaterally determine for themselves whether their actions are taken for purposes of their essential security interests, or, in other words, whether they self-qualify to use the Article XXI(b) exception to justify what would otherwise be a WTO violation.5
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, National Security, WTO, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

769. The Anti-Circumvention Instrument: Another Roadblock on the Investment Development Path?

Author:: Weihuan Zhou and Victor Crochet
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: Companies from emerging economies, and China in particular, have started internationalizing their production operations. In doing so, they are following the same path as that taken by American, European and East Asian corporations before them, by setting up factories in third countries to serve their export markets from closer locations and produce more efficiently. Thus, it is no longer only developed countries’ multinationals which are moving their operations to developing countries, but emerging market companies that are increasingly engaging in production abroad. This phenomenon is having beneficial effects in countries where these companies invest and might help them start their own industrialization process. Yet, it has attracted the ire of developed countries, in particular the European Union. They are now targeting these downstream production plants abroad by using the so-called anti-circumvention instrument, resulting in trade defence duties imposed on the parent companies being extended to their foreign subsidiaries. This application of the anti-circumvention instrument departs from its historic rationale and might hinder the development of countries in need of foreign investment. Therefore, affected governments should consider taking international legal action to bring developed countries to the negotiating table to put a halt to this abuse of the anti-circumvention instrument.
Topic:: Development, Industrial Policy, Investment, Trade, Internationalization, Production, Emerging Economies, and Anti-Circumvention Instrument
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

770. Strengthening South Korean Value Diplomacy for U.S.-South Korean Normative Alignment

Author:: Sook Jong Lee
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: The foreign policy of any state is formulated by calculating national interest and normative ideals. If national interest is based on tangible economic and security gains, normative ideals are often understood as universal and transformative values. However, this distinction is often blurred in reality, as normative choices are made in the context of long-term national interest. Furthermore, a state’s normative alignment can change due to ideologically different new governments or contentious domestic challenges. The worst-case scenario occurs when a strong state withdraws from leadership of a normative coalition of like-minded states. Like-minded states tend to disperse when they lose their leader; the decline of the Community of Democracies after the United States’s neglect is such a case. States fail to pursue consistent foreign policy because normative politics are in flux domestically and internationally. Despite this complexity, a strong power can exercise normative foreign policy more effectively than a weaker power, as it can employ both hard and soft power. The United States played such an enforcement role during the post–Cold War unipolar world. A newly emerging strong state, such as China, can challenge an existing norm or establish a new norm. What about middle powers? Lacking unilaterally exercisable power, middle powers frequently champion multilateral rules and norms that can protect their interests from great power coercion. Professor Andrew Cooper characterizes a middle power as normatively more virtuous and trustworthy in the global order and describes its preferred diplomacy as pursuing multilateral solutions to international problems, embracing compromise positions in international disputes, and adopting the notions of “good international citizenship” (Cooper et al. 1993, 116). The government of former South Korean President Lee Myung-bak pursued middle powermanship under the Global Korea slogan, emphasized value-based international contributions by expanding foreign aid, and hosted the Group of Twenty (G20) and other global meetings. Now, the Yoon Suk Yeol government has scaled up its middle-power ambitions to those of being a global pivotal state by highlighting South Korea’s international contributions and values-based diplomacy (Yoon 2022a). Like the Lee government, the Yoon government is building its proactive multilateral diplomacy while deepening its long-standing alliance with the United States. But the U.S.-China relationship has changed significantly between the Lee and Yoon governments: geopolitical competition between the United States and China has intensified during the intervening fifteen years, expanding beyond the economic and military spheres to include technology and ideology. Under U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, an ideological narrative dividing the world between democracies and autocracies has set in. The Russian war in Ukraine has caused Western European countries to merge democratic unity and collective security. In Northeast Asia, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities now threaten not only South Korea but also the faraway United States. Facing all these high-risk challenges, the Yoon government has tightened military and economic ties with the United States. The two countries’ shared democratic values and liberal norms have emerged as a crucial component of deepening bilateral ties. This normative alignment has invited criticism from Beijing, but the Yoon government has so far not rolled back its advocacy for those values—although it has carefully dubbed them as “universal values” rather than liberal or democratic values. The national confidence gained by globally successful popular Korean culture and deteriorating public opinion against China have helped fuel this value assertiveness.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Norms, and Freedom
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

771. 2023 EAI Public Opinion Poll on the International Affairs: ① The US and the ROK-US Relations

Author:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: In celebration of the 70th Anniversary of the ROK-US alliance, East Asia Institute (EAI) conducted a public opinion poll to assess the Korean people`s perceptions of the United States and the ROK-US alliance. EAI presents the survey results in chart form in the `EAI Public Opinion Briefing.` While many respondents acknowledged the historical benefits of the ROK-US alliance to Korea`s development in the areas of security, economy, and politics over the past 70 years, they expressed reserved outlooks on the current state and future progress of the alliance. Furthermore, the survey results revealed complex viewpoints regarding the role and scope of the alliance, South Korea`s contribution to it, and the extended deterrence provided by the United States.
Topic:: International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Polls
Political Geography:: South Korea, North America, and United States of America

772. The New Domestic Politics of U.S.-China Relations

Author:: Evan S. Medeiros
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: The U.S.-China relationship has come to largely define geopolitics in the 21st century, and the bilateral relationship is today often conceived primarily in terms of geopolitical tensions and great power jockeying on the global stage. However, there is more to U.S.-China strategic competition than the geopolitical level. In particular, the influence of domestic political dynamics in both countries is a widely underappreciated factor driving both U.S. and Chinese foreign policy decision-making, including vis-à-vis each other. What are these shifting domestic forces in both countries that are most influencing the relationship, in what ways, and to what effect? In this groundbreaking new report, The New Domestic Politics of U.S.-China Relations, Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy Evan S. Medeiros conducts an in-depth investigation and analysis of these questions. He finds substantial new dynamics at play in both countries that have had an increasingly negative impact on U.S.-China ties. In the United States, Congressional activism, electoral politics, public opinion, and shifting roles for interest groups are all influencing U.S. debates, policymaking, and actions — governmental and nongovernmental alike. In China, centralization of decision-making processes, constraints on formerly key actors, shifting national-level priorities, and other structural political and personnel changes are today directly and indirectly influencing Chinese perceptions, policies, and behaviors toward the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

773. Military coup in Niger: The legacies of colonialism and the US War on Terror in West Africa

Author:: Christopher Zambakari
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Niger is nearly 500 000 square miles of landlocked country bordered by no less than seven neighbouring states. It is a country saddled with a history of military interventions. However, most recently, under the leadership of President Mohamed Bazoum, it has been regarded as a ‘model of stability’ and ‘model of democracy’ in a region marred by political instability.1 Bazoum’s election in 2021 and the subsequent peaceful transition of power raised expectations of democratic rule and a renewed commitment to good governance. However, the military coup shattered those prospects and exposed the fragility of democracy in West Africa. In the current political upheaval, the key players include not just the domestic military forces, but also international powers. A legacy of French colonialism and the US Global War on Terror looms large over the region, casting its shadow on a complex narrative.2 However, the militarised ambitions of both regional and global actors prevail in West Africa and Niger again is caught in the crosshairs. As one considers the nuances of the situation, two compelling questions emerge: How has the militarisation of West Africa, explored through the lens of the War on Terror, set the stage for the recent coup in Niger, and what does this upheaval signify for the future of the region?3 Amidst the shifts in power, a closer examination of conflict connections and motivations reveals hidden agendas, geopolitical strategic moves, and the struggle for control in Niger.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Colonialism, War on Terror, Coup, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:: Africa, Niger, and United States of America

774. US land power in the Indo-Pacific: opportunities for the Australian army

Author:: Marcus Schultz
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The US Army is undergoing its most consequential period of transformation since the end of the Cold War. The re-emergence of great power competition and a deteriorating strategic environment is forcing the US Army to rethink not just its approach to land warfare but also its future role alongside the US Marine Corps in key regions around the globe. In the Indo-Pacific, this doctrinal and structural transformation is informing a new approach to joint exercises and 'no gaps' defence collaboration to deter Chinese aggression. These developments hold important insights for key US allies and partners, including Australia and Japan. Australia’s new unifying strategic approach to national defence and the high degree of convergence this has with US defence strategy offers a timely window of opportunity for the Australian Army to explore the combined use of land power in a heighten threat environment. This work should be mutually reinforcing and constitute part of Australia’s approach to managing risk and threats and balancing its contributions to deterrence. This report aims to provide the Australian defence establishment and military leaders with well-considered options for engaging the US on matters of mutual interest. The report provides an overview of the US Army’s changing force posture and approach to land warfare, followed by a brief analysis of its evolving role as an essential enabler of joint force operations in a maritime environment. The report then explores the US Army’s ‘campaigning’ activities in the region and its efforts to increase allied and partner capacity for high-end military contingencies in all domains. Finally, the report highlights opportunities for the Australian Army to enhance interoperability with US land forces in a deepening US-Australia alliance.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Armed Forces, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

775. Building whole-of-nation statecraft: how Australia can better leverage subnational diplomacy in the US alliance

Author:: John Coyne, Justin Bassi, Danielle Cave, and Iain MacGillivray
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Australia and the US are both federations of states in which power is shared constitutionally between the national and subnational levels of government. However, traditionally, one domain that hasn’t been considered a shared power, but rather the constitutionally enshrined responsibility of the national governments, has been international affairs (in the US Constitution through Article I, Section 10 and other clauses and in the Australian Constitution through section 51 (xxix), known as the external affairs power). For this reason, foreign-policy and national-security decision-makers in Washington DC and Canberra have rightly seen themselves as the prime actors in the policymaking that develops and strengthens the US–Australia alliance and all global relationships, with limited power held by subnational governments. However, in our globalised and digital world, constitutional power no longer means that subnational governments have only narrow roles and influence on the international stage. While national governments will continue having primary responsibility for setting foreign policy, subnational governments have offices overseas, sign agreements with foreign governments, and regularly send diplomatic delegations abroad. Recent events, including the Covid-19 pandemic, have highlighted subnational governments’ decisive role in shaping, supporting, adapting to and implementing national and international policy. The pandemic, including post-pandemic trade promotion, demonstrated that the relationships between layers of governments in both federations are essential to national security, resilience, economic prosperity and social cohesion. Subnational governments have vital roles to play in helping to maximise national capability, increase trust in democratic institutions, mitigate security threats and build broader and deeper relationships abroad. At the subnational level in Washington and Canberra, people-to-people, cultural and economic links create the deep connective tissue that maintains relationships, including those vital to the US-Australia alliance, no matter the politics of the day. But that subnational interaction must be consistent with national defence and foreign policy. Australia’s federal system should help facilitate international engagement and incentivise positive engagement while ensuring that the necessary legislative and policy levers exist to require the subnational layer to conduct essential due diligence that prioritises the national interest. In this report, the authors make a series of policy recommendations that will support the development of such a framework.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Alliance, and Statecraft
Political Geography:: Australia, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

776. The future of the transatlantic partnership: US perceptions and debates

Author:: Sophia Winograd, Valentina Gruarin, Cengiz Günay, and Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, altered Europe’s security architecture and long-term strategic planning. Many in Europe have shared with the Biden administration that the aggression is not only an existential threat to Ukraine but also to the liberal world order and its values. The war has revived transatlantic coordination and increased the popularity of NATO on both sides of the Atlantic. However, there are critical voices which have questioned the transatlantic commitment and its longevity. This paper examines whether and how the transatlantic partnership has been revitalized and whether it is long lasting. It does so by focusing on U.S. debates, differing opinions, and varying positions on the war and cooperation with NATO and the EU.
Topic:: NATO, European Union, Partnerships, Transatlantic Relations, Debates, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

777. Action on AI: Unpacking the Executive Order’s Security Implications and the Road Ahead

Author:: Janet Egan and Diletta Milana
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: On October 30, 2023, President Biden issued Executive Order (14110) on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence.[1] Directing agencies to take action within existing resources and authorities, this order seeks to empower the U.S. to realize the full benefits of AI, while still mitigating critical risks. Alongside a focus on civil rights, consumers, workers, competition and privacy, the Executive Order also aims to promote national security by addressing AI safety and security risks, bolstering U.S. technology leadership, enhancing government AI capacity, and leading international cooperation efforts. This article provides an overview of key national security initiatives contained in the new Executive Order and explores issues relevant to their implementation, including: Ensuring Safe and Secure AI; Maintaining U.S. Tech Leadership; Building Government Capacity.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Executive Order
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

778. Ocean Issues in Alaska: From Fisheries Management to Public Safety and Security

Author:: Fran Ulmer
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Alaska is an important region for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), given the Department’s statutory authority and responsibilities. This reality applies with particular force to the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG), with its jurisdiction over fisheries enforcement, drug interdiction, marine safety, oil spill response, search and rescue, and more. Challenges facing the USCG in its domains of operation around Alaska—the Arctic Ocean, the North Pacific Ocean, the Bering Sea, the Chukchi Sea, and the adjacent communities—include the following:
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Oceans and Seas, Public Policy, Sustainability, Fishing, and Public Safety
Political Geography:: North America, Alaska, and United States of America

779. Export controls effectively constrain China's advance in microchip production

Author:: Lisa Fuller
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: American and allied export controls have been successful in slowing the advance of China’s equipment for semiconductor chip production. Chinese players have been increasingly cut off from a global industry where customer-client interaction is essential. The US and its allies should continue with the controls and subsidies they have in place but expanding them further, as some advocate, would be excessively punitive.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economy, Exports, Industry, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

780. Inconsistent Signals Is Iran truly committed to resuming nuclear negotiations?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has urged further efforts to resurrect the nuclear deal with the West and relieve sanctions imposed on his country. This is also consistent with efforts to undermine the impact of sanctions that affect citizens' living conditions. This came during his meeting with the Iranian President and government members on Wednesday, August 30, 2023.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

781. Cautious Pragmatism What is thе potential outcome of Washington's approach to thе Nigеr crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On August 8, 2023, US Sеcrеtary of Statе Antony Blinkеn announcеd that diplomacy is thе prеfеrrеd way of rеsolving thе crisis causеd by thе coup in Nigеr. Following thе coup on July 26, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan strongly condemned any effort to detain or subvert thе functioning of Nigеr's dеmocratically еlеctеd govеrnmеnt, led by President Mohamеd Bazoum. Thеsе statements reflect thе ambiguity of Washington's stance regarding thе crisis in Nigеr.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Coup
Political Geography:: Africa, Niger, and United States of America

782. BlackRock ve ABD Hegemonyası

Author:: Muhammet Sait Pınarbaşi
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: 1980’lerde başlayan uluslararası ekonomi politik gelişmeler kurumsal yönetişim rejimini de etkileyerek, varlık yöneticisi kapitalizmi olarak adlandırılan bir sürece girilmesine ve bu sürecin sonunda yeni ekonomi politik aktörler olan dev varlık yöneticisi şirketlerinin önemli ölçüde büyümesine sebep olmuştur. Ekonomik sistemde hâkimiyetin, rızaya dayalı tahakküm biçimi olarak hegemonyanın ön koşullarından birisi olarak sayılması, bu şirketlerin en büyüğü olan BlackRock’ın ABD hegemonyasındaki konumunun değerlendirilmesinin önünü açmıştır. Konuyla ilgili eserlerin incelendiği literatür taramasının yanında yorumsamacı yaklaşımdan yararlanılarak yapılan çalışmada BlackRock’ı ABD hegemonyası perspektifinden araştırmak hedeflenmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda yapılan araştırmanın sonucunda, yönetimi altındaki varlıkların 10 trilyon dolara ulaştığı BlackRock’ın; ABD ile yakın ilişkisi, ekonomik kriz dönemlerindeki kurtarıcı rolü, dünyanın en büyük finans kuruluşlarına (merkez bankaları dahil) danışmanlık yapması, hissedar olduğu binlerce şirketin genel kurulunda oylama hakkı bulunması ve 2012’den itibaren her yıl yayınlanan mektuplar aracılığıyla küresel ekonomik sisteme önemli ölçüde etki etme kabiliyeti bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde ABD hegemonyası lehine konumlandığı gözükmektedir.
Topic:: Political Economy, Hegemony, Capitalism, and BlackRock
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

783. Moonshot vs. Long March: Contrasting the United States’s and China’s Space Programs

Author:: Katherine Kurata and David Lin
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On the morning of November 2, 2023, the Gobi Desert’s silence was shattered: From a remote launchpad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center (中国酒泉卫星发射中心), the Hyperbola-2 (双曲线二号), a slender rocket bearing the iSpace emblem (星际荣耀), surged upwards, before gracefully alighting back on Earth (iSpace WeChat, November 2; CNSA, November 2). This suborbital hop marked a major achievement for iSpace as the company progresses towards developing reusable medium-lift rockets. The test demonstrated key technologies like the methalox engine and landing capabilities that will enable iSpace’s larger reusable rocket plans with Hyperbola-3. In China’s rapidly growing commercial space industry, iSpace, alongside other ambitious startups like Galactic Energy (星河动力), CAS Space (中科宇航探索技术), and Deep Blue Aerospace (深蓝航天), are striving to replicate the success of American pioneers such as SpaceX (Galactic Energy WeChat, July 24; CAS Space WeChat, April 4; Deep Blue Aerospace WeChat, May 7, 2022). Their goal: to revolutionize orbital access with reusable rocket technology. The success on November 2 was more than an engineering accomplishment; it was a testament to China’s emerging “innovation power”—its capacity to create, adopt, and seamlessly integrate new technologies (Foreign Affairs, February 28; US House of Representatives, May 17). This successful launch marks not just a step forward in technological capability but also a strategic shift in the global space race. With a unique mix of state guidance and entrepreneurial zeal, China is charting an alternate path in space exploration, contrasting sharply with the United States’s focus on private sector innovation. As the United States and China advance their respective space programs, their differing approaches are reshaping the landscape of space leadership. While America champions private sector innovation, China exerts centralized state control. Yet amidst an increasingly congested orbital environment, it is clear that the future trajectory of space exploration hinges not solely on innovation itself, but specifically on the capacity for nations to effectively combine government direction with commercial dynamism. The country that strikes this balance will harness the strengths of both its public and private sectors to accelerate advancement, and will be positioned to spearhead humanity’s future in the final frontier.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Space, Innovation, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

784. U.S.-China Data War Intensifies as Bilateral Relations Nosedive

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: U.S.-China relations appear headed for further deterioration despite the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) efforts to lure back American multinationals and Beijing’s relatively limited support for Russia in its war with Ukraine. Washington has characterized the “existential competition” with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as an entrenched struggle on all fronts, but the data and information sectors have recently become areas of particularly intense contention. The Xi Jinping leadership has sternly retaliated against purported efforts by the U.S. and its allies to choke off the PRC’s high-tech development pathways. Recent moves targeting American and other foreign firms are also closely linked to General Secretary Xi Jinping’s obsession with cybersecurity and control of data. Last weekend, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), the administrative arm of the policy-setting Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission (CCAC) that Xi chairs, announced an investigation into the operations of leading American memory-chip maker Micron Technology. The CAC cited the need to safeguard the supply chains of Chinese IT and data companies. Regardless, Micron, whose China operations account for 11 percent of worldwide sales, has insisted that it “stands by the security of our products” (Straits Times, April 1; South China Morning Post [SCMP], March 31).
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Cybersecurity, Information Technology, and Data Governance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

785. Strategic Competition between USA and China in Asia Pacific Region

Author:: Muhammad Soban Arif, Syeda Lubna Shah, and Muhammad Talha
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The USA is increasingly engaged in the Asia Pacific region to secure its interest in maintaining its status quo over the globe. As China becomes an economic giant within two decades and poses a threat to the hegemony of the USA, the USA is engaging with its partners and allies in the region. For this purpose, the USA initiated multiple alliances like AUKUS & QUAD shifted its perspective towards Asia, and Introduced an Asia-Pacific policy for containing China. In contrast to the USA, China is sucking the countries in its economic system to build infrastructure, ports, roads, and railways and by providing loans to developing countries by introducing projects like BRI, OBOR & BRICS. China is using the strategy of Sun Tzu by maneuvering opponents into such a place from which escape is impossible. Both countries are in Thucydides' trap from which escape is impossible. The USA & and China confronted each other through a Trade War. Now achieving geoeconomics interest is important in the contemporary century. The perspective of war on the battlefield shifted toward confronting geo-economic interests due to nuclear doctrine. According to realists, conflict is inevitable in human interactions.
Topic:: Cold War, Strategic Competition, Regional Politics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

786. Shifting Dynamics in the Middle East: Implications for Pakistan

Author:: Zosha Noor, Muhammad Javed, and Shakeel Ahmed
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China's resurgence as a global actor has significantly altered international relations, particularly in the Middle East, particularly with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan's unique geographical location and complex international interactions present an intriguing situation due to these changes. Pakistan's close relations with China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, along with its shared border and cultural ties with Iran, influence its security concerns, domestic politics, economy imperative, and foreign policy. China's growing relationship with Saudi Arabia is driven by its oil needs, global influence, and regional stability. Iran offers China a valuable counterbalance and potential ally in the Middle East due to its geostrategic position and abundant natural resources. The United States' long-standing hegemony in the Middle East has been put to the challenge by China's growing influence and strategic alliances in the region. This qualitative study investigates the issues relating to Middle East with an objective to evaluate the role of great powers‘ politics in the region. The Middle East's shifting geopolitical environment could be advantageous for projects like the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Chabahar Port Development, and Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline.
Topic:: International Relations, Political stability, Rapprochement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

787. The American Invasion and Authoritarianism

Author:: Joseph Sassoon
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Professor Joseph Sassoon discusses the durability of authoritarianism and the decline of American predominance in the years following the Iraq War. The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 was not an isolated episode—as interventions by superpowers, have been a recurring feature in the contemporary history of the Middle East and its authoritarian trajectories. Even so, the American invasion stands out in terms of its scale and the reach of its aftermath. The events of 2003 have influenced Arab regimes and societies far more than other wars or softer forms of global involvement—and in ways that remain more distinct today. The fallout and lingering effects of the American invasion included regional polarizations, securitization, sectarian/ethnic manipulation, transferred counterinsurgency practices, and the expansion of carceral systems. Although Middle Eastern regimes varied in their capacity to translate their learning in the face of social and geopolitical pressures, these fallouts found unique expression in the “rogue states” that were targets of American democratization campaigns and played a key role in autocratic revival and well-being post-2011.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Iraq War, and Invasion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

788. No Good Way to Occupy a Country: Conceptions of Culture in the Iraq War

Author:: Rochelle Davis
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: CCAS Professor Rochelle Davis’ latest book project examines the role that the U.S. military’s conception of culture played in the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Her work—which makes use of interviews with U.S. servicemembers and Iraqis, as well as military documents, cultural training materials, journalist reports, and soldier memoirs—analyzes the narratives that are told about Iraqis, Afghans, Arabs, and Muslims and explicates the paradoxical military objectives of cultural sensitivity and occupation. Professor Davis, who has published two prior books on Palestine, is currently finalizing the manuscript for No Good Way to Occupy a Country. She shares a bit about her project below.
Topic:: Occupation, Interview, and Iraq War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, Palestine, and United States of America

789. Tackling Russian Gray Zone Approaches in the Post-Cold War Era

Author:: Ryan Burkholder
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: To undermine U.S. military strength, state actors are increasingly operating in the ambiguous environment between peace and war known as the “gray zone.” These actions test U.S. response by exploiting the West’s rigid notion of conflict. Soviet actions toward the United States and other nations during the Cold War shared many similarities with contemporary Russian strategy. There is no current uniform definition of the gray zone, and the United States has not developed doctrine to address this challenge. Russia has adapted Soviet Cold War techniques for the digital and globalized age and effectively integrates instruments of power against the United States by targeting seams within culture, maintaining ambiguity, and controlling narratives. Countering these tactics requires that the United States modify its mindset toward conflict and improve integration of its own instruments of power.
Topic:: Cold War, Politics, Conflict, Gray Zone, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

790. The Cold War Computer Arms Race

Author:: Bryan Leese
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The Cold War computer arms race illustrates the military’s role in strategic competition. The Soviets bought and stole, versus creating computer technology themselves. A U.S.-led coalition integrated economic, diplomatic, and information mechanisms, embargoing computer technology to disadvantage the Soviets. President Ronald W. Reagan’s offset strategy integrated military power, openly demonstrating computer-infused weapons lethality that jeopardized Soviet quantitative military advantage. President Reagan’s use of the computer arms race shows a way to conduct and integrate a strategic competition campaign of deterrence that includes coercive diplomacy with diplomatic efforts that can deter China and Russia while encouraging them to reverse harmful foreign and domestic policies.
Topic:: Cold War, Science and Technology, Deterrence, Espionage, Embargo, Coercion, Competition, and Computers
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

791. Revisiting the Global Posture Review: A New U.S. Approach to European Defense and NATO in a Post-Ukraine War World

Author:: Maxwell Stewart
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article revisits the 2021 Global Posture Review’s determination for a status quo European force posture in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Considering the poor Russian performance and attrition in the war, and the likely frozen conflict that will emerge, the article lays out the process by which the United States can draw down its permanent presence in Europe to refocus on the Pacific and restructure its relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), all while maintaining alliance unity. The article has two main recommendations. The first is a time line for a reduced U.S. force posture in Europe from the present to 2035 while placing more emphasis on a European role in NATO leadership. The second is focused on how to maintain strategic flexibility while reassuring NATO allies of U.S. commitment. It then identifies and provides mitigations for the anticipated risks associated with the recommendations.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Russia-Ukraine War, and Rebalancing
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

792. Including Africa Threat Analysis in Force Design 2030

Author:: Glen Segell
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article examines the threat analysis across Africa that should be included in Force Design 2030 for the United States Marine Corps to be deployed landward to Africa or seaward of the continent. It is a strategic guidance document examined from a threat analysis of China, Russia, Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations. Africa is not mentioned, and this is a notable omission given that high level interventions in the past to Africa have not been overtly successful. Given geostrategic significances and hot spots it is inevitable that the Marines will be deployed there again. This article examines lessons learned from failures in Somalia, Libya, and Lebanon and successes in Syria and Iraq as well as the experiences of others—France in Mali and Burkina Faso and United States Africa Command. Great power competition, violent extremist organizations, and the gray zone phenomena across Africa are examined as are security, intelligence, counterintelligence, and hybrid warfare.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, Counterinsurgency, Violent Extremism, Gray Zone, Strategic Competition, and US Marine Corps
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

793. The Nationalization of Cybersecurity: The Potential Effects of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission Report on the Nation’s Critical Infrastructure

Author:: H. Chris Tecklenburg and José de Arimatéia da Cruz
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The United States is susceptible to cyberattacks. The Cyberspace Solarium Commission Report provides several recommendations to prevent and respond to such attacks. However, many of these recommendations attempt to nationalize cybersecurity. This article presents a historical overview involving the Department of Homeland Security, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, and the Commerce Clause, which outlines nationalization and its effects. It will note a similar trend for cybersecurity. Finally, the positive and negative consequences of nationalization are presented.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Homeland Security, Cyberspace, Commerce, Nationalization, and Critical Infrastructure
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

794. Sovereignty, Cyberspace, and the Emergence of Internet Bubbles

Author:: Eldar Haber and Lev Topor
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The cyber domain emerged as a perfect platform for international struggle over power and influence. International powers are actively engaged in cyber proxy warfare due to the relatively low risk of escalation, various enforcement challenges, and the vagueness of international law within this realm. These indirect conflicts might lead some global powers to close or restrict their virtual borders to avoid or reduce the plausibility of cyber proxy warfare or unwanted foreign influence in general. The formation of such restricted networks, articulated in this article as “internet bubbles,” is already shaping within the realm of actors like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The authors argue that liberal democracies like the United States might be at a severe disadvantage to fight against cyber proxy warfare due to legal and constitutional barriers. But at the same time, the emergence of platform governance and self-regulation might be proven as a new force within these proxy wars and reshape its boundaries.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Cybersecurity, Internet, Proxy War, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

795. The Berlin Pulse 2023/24 (full issue)

Author:: Julia Ganter, Steffen Müller, Sarah Pagung, Norbert Röttgen, and Lila Roldán Vázquez
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Körber-Stiftung
Abstract:: What do Germans und US citizens think about the most pressing foreign policy issues? Here are the highlights of this year’s public opinion survey, addressing Germany’s international role, biggest challenges and most important partners. A majority (57 per cent) of Germans believe that Germany’s international influence has declined over the past two years, despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s proclaimed Zeitenwende. As a result, only 38 per cent of respondents would like to see Germany become more engaged in international crises. This is the lowest figure since the start of the survey in 2016. 76 per cent believe that this involvement should preferably be of a diplomatic nature, compared to 65 per cent last year. 71 per cent of respondents are against Germany taking a leading military role in Europe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Military Spending, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

796. What Does the US-China Tech Cold War Mean for the Middle East?

Author:: Alistair Taylor and Mohammed Soliman
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On this week's episode Alistair Taylor, MEI's editor-in-chief, is joined by Mohammed Soliman, director of MEI's Strategic Technologies and Cyber Security Program, to discuss the US-China tech Cold War and what it means for the Middle East. At the nexus of great power competition and rapid technological advances in areas like semiconductors and AI, the rivalry between Washington and Beijing is fuelling a longer-term process of economic and technological decoupling. Navigating this growing divide will be a key challenge for regional actors across MENA.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Economy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and United States of America

797. Roundtable with Special Representative Dilawar Syed (U.S. Business in Iraq)

Author:: Dilawar Syed and Randa Slim
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) was pleased to host a roundtable with the U.S. State Department's Special Representative for Commercial and Business Affairs, Dilawar Syed, moderated by Paul Salem, President & CEO with Randa Slim, Senior Fellow and Director, Conflict Resolution & Track II Dialogues Program. SR Syed had recently returned from a delegation trip to Baghdad with the U.S.-Iraq Business Council (USIBC). In this roundtable, he briefed a private sector and policy audience about his findings. During his visit, he held high level bilateral meetings with senior Iraqi officials, including Prime Minister Al-Sudani. SR Syed also met with the Speaker of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, many of the Council of Representatives Iraq (COR) committees, and Iraqi entrepreneurs. SR Syed also spoke to opportunities and challenges for U.S. businesses in Iraq at large, responding to questions such as: Which economic sectors show the most promise for US-Iraqi economic cooperation in the short-, medium-, and long-term? What are the biggest challenges facing Iraq's economy and potential business partnerships with US companies? What were some of the private sector delegates impressions of Iraq today, and the economic opportunities available to US businesses? From this administration's perspective, how important (or high-priority) is our relationship with Iraq and what is the strategic rationale for improved and integrated economic cooperation? Looking past the delegation, how does the State Department intend to continue promoting active private sector partnerships? How do your Iraqi counterparts understand their relationship with the US, what are their hopes and fears as we look towards the future of this relationship, both economic and otherwise?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Business, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

798. Little Amal Walks Across America

Author:: Kate Seelye and Vanessa Zuabi
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: MEI’s Senior Vice President Kate Seelye speaks with award-winning theater director and writer Amir Nizar Zuabi - Artistic Director of the 'Amal Walks Across America' tour. They discuss the upcoming U.S. tour of Little Amal, an internationally celebrated 12-foot-tall puppet of a 10-year-old Syrian refugee girl traveling across the world carrying a message of hope and compassion for displaced people everywhere.
Topic:: Arts, Refugees, Displacement, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Syria, North America, and United States of America

799. The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea

Author:: Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea, author Shadi Hamid explores what he describes as the ‘democratic dilemma,’ the U.S. desire for democracy in theory but not in practice. Hamid cites the rise of Islamist parties during a wave of democratic elections across the Middle East, which he argues produced outcomes the U.S. was not intending, such as the empowerment of Hamas in Gaza following the 2006 Palestinian elections. Reviewing the lessons learned from the past two decades of U.S. policy in the Middle East, Hamid proposes ‘democratic minimalism’ as a new approach to democracy promotion. Instead of viewing democracy as a tool to usher in liberalism, economic development, and cultural progress, Hamid argues that democracy as an end in of itself should be prioritized over other liberal values. Please join us at the Middle East Institute for an in-person discussion with author Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers, Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on the strategy of U.S. democracy promotion abroad, the consequences of the democratic push in the early twenty-first century and the future shape of governance systems globally. Gönül Tol, MEI Senior Fellow and Director of the Turkey Program, will moderate the discussion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Islamism, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

800. The EU–US Data Protection Framework: Balancing Economic, Security and Privacy Considerations

Author:: Federica Marconi
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The rapid evolution of digital technology has ushered in a data-centric economy, where data accessibility drives marketplace efficiency and economic growth across various industries. However, this shift, while offering numerous benefits, introduces significant privacy and data security challenges, particularly in the context of transatlantic data transfers. Considering the vast economic ties between the EU and the US, the transatlantic data flow vividly illustrates the complexities involved in governing and transferring data. It grapples with the ongoing challenge of striking a satisfactory balance between economic advantages stemming from data utilisation and various concerns pertaining to national security, digital sovereignty and individual rights. In recent years, the European Commission approved two different frameworks on transatlantic data flow – Safe Harbour in 2000[1] and Privacy Shield in 2016[2] – asserting that the US provided a level of data protection for data transfers essentially equivalent to that guaranteed in the EU. However, despite initial optimism, both adequacy decisions faced a significant setback when the Court of Justice of the European Union invalidated them in what is commonly referred to as the “Schrems saga”,[3] named after the Austrian activist who first challenged both frameworks before the European Court. The core arguments centred on the absence of adequate safeguards for personal data within US domestic law and the extent of state surveillance over such data when it was transferred, as initially disclosed by Edward Snowden in 2013.[4] This legal development led to a period of significant uncertainty and further heightened the ongoing debate concerning the regulation of transatlantic data transfer. To address the consequences of this legal turmoil, both EU and the US committed to establishing “a renewed and sound framework for transatlantic data flows”,[5] seeking a long-term solution to address the complexities of data privacy and security, eventually leading to the recently adopted EU–US Data Privacy Framework (“DPF”).
Topic:: Security, Economics, Political Economy, European Union, Privacy, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

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