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101. The Impacts of Parole Supervision

Author:
Luke Brinkman, Andrew Jordan, and Derek Neal
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In 2021, Illinois passed the Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equity-Today Act, commonly known as the SAFE‑T Act. This legislation received significant national attention because it ended cash bail in Illinois and included numerous reforms to the supervision of prisoners upon their release. In Illinois, most exiting prisoners serve a period of mandatory supervised release (MSR), which is similar to parole supervision in other states. The original SAFE‑T Act modified MSR terms for many parolees, and Illinois amended the law on December 6, 2022, creating a natural policy experiment. During the six months preceding this date, the state assigned a large group of released prisoners to one year of supervision. This group contained prisoners sentenced for both serious offenses (Classes 1 and 2) and lesser offenses (Classes 3 and 4). However, starting on January 1, 2023, the state assigned released prisoners in Classes 3 and 4 to six months of MSR.
Topic:
Crime, Law Enforcement, Incarceration, and Parole
Political Geography:
North America, Illinois, and United States of America

102. Immigration Restrictions and Natives’ Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from the 1920s US Quota Acts

Author:
James Feigenbaum, Yi-Ju Hung, Marco Tabellini, and Monia Tomasella
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Immigration policy has emerged as a focal point of political debate in many advanced economies. Proposals to curtail immigration are frequently justified on economic grounds. Some argue that immigrants increase competition in local labor markets, depress wages for native workers, and strain public resources. Research has increasingly sought to evaluate the consequences of immigration restrictions on economic growth, employment, and wages. While these studies have deepened our understanding of the shorter-run effects of immigration policy on labor markets, we know less about its implications for future generations of native-born workers. This question is especially important because immigration restrictions often persist for decades once enacted.
Topic:
Economy, Immigration Policy, Social Mobility, and Quota
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

103. The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Insights from 180 Years of US Trade Policy

Author:
Tamar den Besten, Diego R. Känzig, Régis Barnichon, and Aayush Singh
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The sharp increase in US tariff rates in 2025 has renewed interest in the macroeconomic effects of tariffs. Yet surprisingly little evidence exists on this topic. Most studies rely on post–World War II data—a period with relatively modest movements in average tariff rates—and focus on narrow outcomes, such as relative price changes, industry-level effects, or bilateral trade flows. Consequently, the aggregate effects of tariffs on output, prices, and trade are less well understood.
Topic:
Economy, Tariffs, Macroeconomics, Trade Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

104. The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality

Author:
Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Statutory tariff rates on US imports recently reached levels not seen in more than 100 years. By the end of 2025, the average statutory rate (weighted by the volume of trade subject to each rate) was 26 percent. Imports from 171 countries, accounting for more than 70 percent of all US imports, faced higher tariffs than at the end of 2024.
Topic:
Economy, Tariffs, Manufacturing, Trade, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

105. The global sovereign citizen movement

Author:
Lydia Khalil and Keiran Hardy
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The sovereign citizen movement has spread from the United States to more than 26 countries globally. Covid restrictions and digital networks accelerated its growth and created dangerous intersections with other conspiracy movements. The sovereign citizen movement has grown beyond a nuisance, escalating into a national security challenge for many countries around the world. The transnational threat of the movement requires multilateral intelligence coordination, online interventions to counter influencers, narratives, and networks, and globally informed threat assessments.
Topic:
Intelligence, National Security, Social Media, Conspiracy Theory, Political Extremism, and Sovereign Citizens
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

106. Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty

Author:
Cristian Bonavida
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines whether marriage serves as a strategic response to immigration policy uncertainty. We study transitions into marriage among cohabiting binational couples—defined as unions between a U.S. citizen and a noncitizen partner—following the shift in immigration policy expectations during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the subsequent tightening of enforcement in 2017. Using ACS data from 2008 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we compare marriage transitions among binational couples to those of homogeneous citizen couples. Immigration policy uncertainty increased marriage rates among binational couples by approximately 1.5–1.8 percentage points, or about 8-10 percent relative to pre-treatment levels. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the response began in 2016, prior to the formal reinstatement of Secure Communities. The effect is concentrated among likely unauthorized immigrants and individuals from targeted nationalities. The findings suggest that marriage functioned as a form of legal and economic insurance in response to heightened deportation risk.
Topic:
Economics, Marriage, Household, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

107. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States

Author:
Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

108. Assad’s Fall Is an Opportunity for a U.S. Win Over China

Author:
Grant Rumley
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Beijing consistently supported the regime’s brutal repressive measures, so cozying up to the rebel-led transition government may be more difficult than it expects. In the months since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, China has seized on the conflict to criticize not only Israel but by extension the U.S. and its position in the region. For years, Chinese diplomats had been careful to toe a centrist line in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calibrating their language to avoid offending either side too greatly. Yet as the conflict has dragged on the past year, and as the region’s criticisms of the U.S. have risen, Beijing sensed an opportunity to diminish the U.S. standing while boosting its own. Chinese officials have regularly omitted mention of Hamas’s atrocities while blasting Israel and the U.S. for its support. Now, however, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has presented the U.S. with a similar opportunity...
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, Bashar al-Assad, 2023 Gaza War, and Transitional Government
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

109. In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State

Author:
Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns. Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria would be a devastating setback and damage American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure. Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. And despite political nominees’ reassurances that the United States is unlikely to abandon its partners there, Trump himself has been more ambivalent...
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islamic State, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

110. Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for Israel, Hamas, and U.S. Policy

Author:
Dennis Ross, Matthew Levitt, and Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Former Israeli and U.S. officials discuss the deal’s timing, provisions, and near-term prospects, outlining the Trump administration’s practical options for advancing peace in Gaza and beyond.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

111. Barbara A. Leaf on US Leadership and Engagement in the Middle East

Author:
Brian Katulis and Barbara A. Leaf
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Middle East Focus Presents: ’Taking the Edge Off the Middle East’ with Brian Katulis. A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today - hosted by MEI’s Senior Fellow Brian Katulis. Barbara A. Leaf is a seasoned diplomat and expert on the Middle East, having served as the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and held key positions in US embassies across the region. In this episode, Barbara joins Brian to discuss the array of “black swan” events currently unfolding in the Middle East, and how the second Trump administration may respond to these challenges. They discuss the broader implications of these developments for US foreign policy, national security, and regional stability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Leadership, Engagement, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

112. Costly Incrementalism: U.S. PKK Policy and Relations with Türkiye

Author:
Richard Outzen
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
U.S. policy towards the PKK, a designated Foreign Terror Organization, has varied significantly over four decades, reflecting a clear periodization based on pragmatic policy interests and the interplay of U.S. actions and Turkish responses. Washington has over time supported Turkish counter-PKK actions without direct involvement; actively supported Turkish counter-PKK efforts; tolerated or tacitly supported PKK activities; and directly instrumentalized and supported the PKK in Syria and regionally. Washington’s evolving stance toward the PKK coincided with the rise of Al Qaeda (AQ) and its offshoot, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as the focus of U.S. Middle East policy. The evolution reflected an incremental approach that subordinated U.S.-Turkish relations and other regional problems to the campaign against AQ/IS. Bilateral cooperation suffered as incrementalism, low trust, and transactionalism came to characterize the relationship. This paper examines the history, current dynamics, and possible future trajectory of U.S. PKK policy as a problem in U.S. Turkish bilateral relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

113. The Alliance in the Storm: Geopolitical Representation of the United States in the Turkish Parliament during Détente

Author:
Ayşe Ömür Atmaca
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article analyzes how the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political discourse changed during the 1960s and 1970s in the context of deep crises between the two countries, such as the Cyprus question, the opium issue, and the US arms embargo on Türkiye. Within the framework of critical geopolitical theory, it uses the concept of “geopolitical representation.” It examines the changes in the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political life through practical geopolitics. To this end, it evaluates the debates, speeches, and correspondence made by the representatives of the ruling and opposition parties and members of the government in the Turkish Grand National Assembly between 1964 and 1979, within the context of the crises in Turkish-American relations, particularly within the foreign policy framework. It is argued that while the alliance between Türkiye and the United States and Türkiye’s membership in NATO were seen as important symbols of Türkiye’s sovereignty and enjoyed unwavering support in the 1950s, tensions with the US, Türkiye’s “strategic partner,” in the 1960s and 1970s led to notable shifts in the Turkish parliament’s narrative. As a pioneer of anti-NATO and anti-US rhetoric, the Workers’ Party of Türkiye (TİP) played a prominent role in shaping parliamentary discussions.
Topic:
History, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Arms Embargo, and Detente
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, Cyprus, and United States of America

114. Challenging Friends: Türkiye-U.S. Relations

Author:
Lenore G. Martin
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article analyzes the underlying wellsprings for the major strains that disrupt the U.S. - Türkiye relationship. These strains arise from the U.S. support of the PYD/YPG/YPJ in Northern Syria as boots on the ground against ISIL; Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system; Türkiye’s energy imports from Russia and Iran; the U.S. refusal to extradite Fetullah Gülen; and Washington’s complaints about the AKP government’s anti-democratic tendencies. This article analyzes why and how some of these issues have evoked strong ire and distrust on both sides and others much less so by employing a paradigm based on five integrated variables: Türkiye’s military and economic capabilities; the availability of its natural resources, particularly energy; as well as threats to the legitimacy of the AKP regime and to the society’s ethnic and religious cohesion. Utilizing the paradigm, the article proposes measures that will increase the opportunities to build a firmer partnership between the U.S. and Türkiye.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, YPG, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

115. A Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Turkish Public Opinion towards the United States

Author:
Efe Tokdemir, Melike Metintaş, and Seçkin Köstem
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Türkiye - United States relations have a multifaceted character and have spanned a long period, witnessing ups and downs throughout their historical trajectory. Türkiye’s relations with and foreign policy towards the US have been closely monitored by the public, and diverse perspectives towards the US have emerged within Turkish public opinion over time. This paper investigates the various factors that affect Turkish public opinion towards the US. Previous studies have generally examined public opinion through the demand side, exploring what features of the public predict their behavior towards other countries. In this research, we examine what exactly it is about the US that the public likes or dislikes. The research question of this article is: What are the determinants of the variation in individuals’ foreign policy attitudes towards the US in Türkiye? By answering this question through survey data conducted in 2021, we aim to present the economic, security-related, and political reasons behind the Turkish public’s positive and negative attitudes toward the US. The findings demonstrate that individuals are influenced by various dimensions pertaining to the US and its relations with Türkiye. The respondents’ demographic characteristics and political and foreign policy attitudes have resulted in disparate opinions regarding these multiple dimensions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Attitudes
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

116. Where is the Anchor? Explaining the Endurance of the American-Turkish Partnership, 1927-2024

Author:
Onur Erpul and Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Once considered a model partnership, the American-Turkish relationship now elicits ambivalence among scholars and policymakers, calling into question the fundamental interests and assumptions that once undergirded the relationship. Critics attribute the negative trends in the relationship to geostrategic and value-based incompatibilities, but relatively few have examined both factors longitudinally across the entire relationship. This paper does not aim to provide a grand theory of American-Turkish relations. Instead, its goal is to develop a framework illustrating the vital role that strategic, ideational, and domestic political factors have played in shaping macro-level outcomes in the partnership’s cohesion at various junctures. Overall, our paper identifies the positive role of foreign policy bureaucratic elites on both sides acting as an “invisible hand” providing an anchor for the relationship even in the absence of other commonalities. Yet, we also observe the weakening of this hand in recent times as both countries become domestically transformed.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and Elites
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

117. The Deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish Foreign Policy: Why Societal Ties Are an Anchor in Bilateral Relations

Author:
Andrew O'Donohue
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This paper challenges two prevailing narratives about U.S.-Turkey relations: first, that international and individual-level factors are responsible for volatility in the relationship and second, that bilateral relations are uniformly bleak. In contrast to these perspectives, this paper proposes a domestic and institutional explanation for the rising volatility of U.S.-Turkey relations and conceptualizes societal ties as an anchor in the bilateral relationship. This paper advances two inter-related arguments. First, I argue that a key driver of volatility in U.S.-Turkey relations since 2016 is the deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish foreign policymaking. In the United States, the root cause of deinstitutionalization is intensifying polarization over foreign policy, fueled by the rise of populism. In Turkey, by contrast, foreign policy has deinstitutionalized through personalization: the steady concentration of decision-making power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Second, against this backdrop of deinstitutionalization, I show that societal ties between the United States and Turkey provide a uniquely stable and enduring area of bilateral cooperation. I provide evidence for this argument in two key domains: 1) civil society and media and 2) higher education. These societal linkages, I argue, are often resilient precisely because they are disconnected from domestic politics and foreign policy. These societal ties should thus be understood not as agents that can reshape bilateral relations but as anchors that prevent the two nations from drifting apart.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, Media, Higher Education, Bureaucracy, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

118. Turkey and the US in the Middle East: A Case for Alliance Change

Author:
Meliha Benli Altunisik
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Turkey-US relations in the Middle East have evolved significantly in recent years. Initially based on shared threat perceptions and strategic outlooks during the Cold War, the alignment became characterized by divergences on some issues after the Gulf War in 1991. Their relationship in the Middle East has even become hostile in recent years. Turkey’s increased regional aspirations and evolving threat perceptions in the Middle East, framed within an ontological security narrative, have strained bilateral ties. This shift is compounded by divergent worldviews influenced by domestic political changes in both countries. Despite these challenges, the alliance persists within NATO, albeit with complexities arising from the interplay of external pressures and internal dynamics. This article explores these dynamics using a Neoclassical Realist framework to explain how Ankara’s evolving threat perceptions and ontological security concerns have reshaped Turkey-US relations in the Middle East amid changing global and regional contexts.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Neoclassical Realism, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

119. Translating Trump’s Disruptive Diplomacy into a New Reality in Gaza

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the future of Gaza – which include the eviction of its population, American governance, the creation of a “Middle Eastern Riviera,” and an ultimatum demanding the release of all hostages – highlights two key issues on which Trump’s positions appear self-contradictory. The call for the release of all hostages (and hence perhaps an end to the war) seems at odds with the administration’s firmly held view that Hamas must no longer be the ruling power in Gaza. At the same time, the call for Palestinians to leave Gaza contradicts the traditional commitment to America’s Arab friends (and clients). The stability of the regimes in Egypt and Jordan, if pushed to take the Gazans and punished for their refusal, could be endangered – despite King Abdullah’s efforts to mollify Trump during his visit to Washington. The future of their peace treaties with Israel would also be threatened. The Saudis too have responded abruptly, reiterating their support for Palestinian demands. Consequently, the region has been thrust into a state of crisis.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, 2023 Gaza War, and Hostages
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

120. Christian Nationalism Across All 50 States: Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
In 2024, PRRI released a groundbreaking national survey that provided for the first time the ability to estimate support for Christian nationalism in all 50 states. Building on that work throughout 2024, PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults as part of the PRRI American Values Atlas to continue monitoring the spread of support for Christian nationalism and the factors driving such views.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Survey, Partisanship, and Christian Nationalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America