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4602. When War is Not Worth Winning
- Author:
- Matthew Testerman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Winning a war requires the capacity to wage a war and an understanding of an end-state that equates to winning. These fundamental concepts, however, are not well defined. This essay draws from recent historical examples, contemporaneous strategy documents, and formal game theory to provide some additional degree of conceptual clarity that will enhance the debate about winning without war. In the past two decades, the U.S. has developed a demonstrated capacity to win with war. Victory in kinetic war fighting is nearly assured and can be accomplished with limited cost. Despite this, in the modern context, war has evolved to the point that war is not worth winning. It is far from the case that there are no wars to be fought, but the political and economic constraints of the international system have transformed the environment in which the U.S. operates militarily. Evidence of this is found in the strategic outlook of the U.S. military as documented in the revised U.S. naval strategy, especially when compared to earlier maritime strategy. To inform this discussion, game theoretic explanations of strategic interactions are helpful. The assumptions underlying recent U.S. naval strategy can be understood by applying the basic construct of a “game of strategic entry." Applying this construct, one finds that war is not worth winning– a conclusion that has substantive consequences for designing, organizing, and employing naval forces.
- Topic:
- Security, War, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Iraq War
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4603. The Strategic Duel over Taiwan
- Author:
- Ian Easton
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- The United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are firmly entrenched in what will be a long and intense strategic competition for dominance over the Pacific Rim. American strategists Andrew Marshall, Robert Kaplan, and Aaron Friedberg began foretelling of this great power struggle over a decade ago.[1]. They recognized before anyone else that there are strong forces underpinning the U.S.-China rivalry. The two countries’ political systems and national interests stand in fundamental opposition. This is why, despite Washington’s reluctance to officially admit it, strategic competition between the U.S. and the PRC is unavoidable. The United States, while an imperfect democracy, is an inspiration to people everywhere who yearn for the freedom and dignity that comes from having a representative government, independent legal system, and market economy. In the PRC, on the other hand, power is monopolized by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), a political organization that is directly responsible for more human suffering than possibly any other regime past or present, anywhere in the world.[2] Numerous State Department reports detail the past and continuing human rights violations occurring under the watch of the CCP.[3] For all its much ballyhooed economic reforms, China’s economy is still largely controlled by massive state-owned corporations, making it a mercantilist country, not a capitalist one.[4] Much of Beijing’s economic power ultimately stems from its remarkable ability to lure foreign business elites with promises of access to its huge market. Once the hook is set, China pockets their investments, steals their intellectual property, and undercuts their market competitiveness.[5] Yet it is not the PRC’s unsavory political or economic practices that will ensure sustained U.S.-China competition over the coming decades, although future American presidents, like Barack Obama, will undoubtedly be tempted to paper over ideological differences for expedience sake. Rather, Beijing’s insecure and aggressive nature is at the root of the problem. In recent years, China has stoked maritime tensions with Japan and the Philippines, both treaty allies of the United States; provoked border clashes with India, a democratic nation and American security partner; and enabled nuclear missile proliferation amongst its friends: North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran.[6] Track records tell a compelling story. The PRC’s track record indicates that a growing number of geostrategic issues could eventually result in a clash between the United States and China...
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Economy, and Grand Strategy
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
4604. China’s Development of Space Warfare and Its Operational Applications
- Author:
- Feng-tai Hwang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- As early as March 2011, the journal Aerospace America featured an article with the title “China’s Military Space Surge,”[1] which warned that there had been a rapid increase in China’s capability to conduct warfare in space. Such capabilities would then in turn threaten and jeopardize the ability of the carrier battle groups of the United States to conduct operations in the Pacific. This article was soon translated into Japanese and published in Space Japan Review. This and other high profile articles highlight the anxieties on the part of the U.S. and Japan about China’s increasing ability to militarize space, and also their concerns about its implications for the peace and security of East Asia and the entire Pacific Asia region. On December 31, 2015 China announced the creation of three new branches of armed forces to be added into the reformed People’s Liberation Army (PLA): Army General Command, Strategic Support Force, and the PLA Rocket Force. While the PLA Rocket Force replaced the old Second Artillery Corps, what is even more intriguing is the mission of the new Strategic Support Force. According to Chinese media, the Strategic Support Force will be responsible for overseeing intelligence, technical reconnaissance, satellite management, electronic warfare, cyberwarfare, and psychological warfare. It is no coincidence that Gao Jin (高津), the newly appointed commander of the Strategic Support Force, is also an expert on rocket science, which has further fueled media speculations that the Strategic Support Force has been created for the purpose of conducting future space warfare.[2] In fact, China has been increasing the focus on the military applications of space since the end of Persian Gulf War in the 1990s. During that war, the United States mobilized dozens of satellites to aid the American-led coalition forces, enabling them to defeat Iraqi forces with extraordinary efficiency and ease. The Persian Gulf War greatly shocked PLA observers at the time, and served as a reminder that the conduct of modern warfare had been transformed by the arrival of a new generation of technology. Chinese military theorists then began to study the concept of “space warfare.” The most influential was Chang Xian-Qi (常顯奇), who categorized space warfare into three distinct phases based on his observations of U.S. planning: the “Entry into Space,” the “Utilization of Space,” and the “Control of Space.” “Entry into Space” is represented by the delivery of a military-purpose spacecraft into its designated orbit path. “Utilization of Space” is to harness the power of existing space assets to aid military operations across the land, naval, and air domains. For example, such power can manifest in the forms of using space sensors to conduct surveillance and gather intelligence for Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) against potential foes, to provide ballistic missile early warning, satellite navigation and communications, among other purposes. The “Control of Space” phase focuses on establishing “space superiority” with the missions of: (1) increasing survivability of one’s own military satellites and systems; (2) disrupting, sabotaging, or destroying opposing countries’ satellites and their systems when necessary; and (3) directly using space-based weapons to aid in combat operations on the ground.[3]...
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, War, Military Affairs, and Space
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
4605. China’s United Front Strategy and its Impacts on the Security of Taiwan and Asia-Pacific Region
- Author:
- Michael M. Tsai and Po-Chang Huang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- In 1949, Mao Zedong, leader of the Communist Party of China (CCP), defeated Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang (KMT) troops and succeeded in establishing the communist dictatorship of the People’s Republic of China out of the “barrel of a gun.” At the beginning of its rule, the CCP believed that the use of violent instruments as provided by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was in and of itself sufficient to both suppress “reactionaries” at home and defeat “invaders” from abroad. In this vein, during the Korean War of the early 1950s, the CCP regime sent a million-strong “Volunteer Army” into the Korean Peninsula and fought against the U.S.-led United Nations forces, thus cementing the political division of Korea and its complications that linger to this day. Between 1958 and 1960, PLA troops heavily bombarded the Chiang Kai-shek-controlled island of Kinmen, resulting in significant casualties on both sides. Between the 1960s and 1980s, the PLA and militia troops engaged in a series of border conflicts and clashes with the Soviet Union, India, and Vietnam. Throughout this period, the CCP regime still believed that military force alone was sufficient to serve as the primary bargaining chip and policy instrument in its dealing with other states.[1] However, from the late 1980s to 1990s, the collapse of Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc marked the end of Cold War and the confrontation between two global superpowers. The CCP’s strategy in the international arena evolved from an overreliance on hard military force to one that utilizes both “soft power” and the “carrot and stick.” From the Chinese perspective, the concept of “soft power” encompasses the exploitation of any policy or tool outside the traditional definition of “hard” military power to achieve its desired political, economic, and diplomatic objectives. Such exploitation takes place via political, societal, commercial, economic, legal, psychological, cultural, and other means. Mass media and even tourist groups could all be used as a means of penetration to funnel and support Chinese agents deep inside enemy territory and to create conditions that are conducive to achieving China’s desired outcome. This is the essence of China’s strategy of the “United Front.” This article examines the United Front strategy and the ways in which China’s deployment of this strategy impacts the national security of Taiwan as well as neighboring countries such as Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and even the United States.[2] The article concludes with proposed policy recommendations for how Taiwan can counter such strategies...
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, History, Military Strategy, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Taiwan, Soviet Union, Vietnam, Philippines, and United States of America
4606. Fletcher Opening Arctic Conference
- Author:
- Rabia Altaf, Molly Douglas, and Drew Yerkes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Many Western leaders point to the Arctic as a zone of cooperation—and we have observed such cooperation with the formulation of the Arctic Council, joint scientific endeavors, Search and Rescue agreements, and the very recent Arctic Coast Guard Forum—but disputes between Russia and other Arctic nations in regions to the south have raised concerns in certain quarters. While an ongoing struggle for dominance over the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage and competing continental shelf claims may reflect these tensions, tit-for-tat military exercises and plans for expanded military infrastructure in the Arctic certainly do. The Russian government recently announced completion of a new military base in Franz Josef Land capable of supporting 150 soldiers, as well as its intention to rebuild six existing airfields. While such a nominal increase in military personnel posted to the Arctic may merely be seen as a posturing act, taken in context with Russia’s recent actions in Europe and the Middle East, it might also be seen as a bold move to project power from a previously overlooked region.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America
4607. A Useful Pause in Arctic Drilling
- Author:
- Bruce M. Everett
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Until last year, drilling for oil in the Arctic was the subject of considerable discussion focused not only on the potential impacts of Arctic resources on the oil market, but also on the environmental and geopolitical implications of opening this area to development. Prospects for Arctic drilling dimmed considerably in 2015 when Shell decided to abandon its ambitious drilling efforts in the Burger Field in the Chukchi Sea, writing off several billion dollars in the process. The recent collapse in oil prices has probably put a stop to Arctic drilling for the time being, and this pause may prove useful in resolving some of the outstanding issues.
- Topic:
- Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Geopolitics, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Greenland, Arctic, United States of America, and Oceans
4608. Russia's Arctic: A Necessary Space for Dialogue
- Author:
- Andrew Yerkes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Over the weekend of November 21st, 2015, Russia flew 141 sorties over Syria, hitting 472 targets in eight different provinces throughout the country.[1] While the deployment of the Russian Air Force over Syria has been in full affect since last September, the events of November 20th proved to be unique. Two of the TU-160 blackjack bombers that participated in the weekend’s campaign took flight not from a base in southern Russia, but rather from Olenegorsk Airbase on the Kola Peninsula of the Russian Arctic.[2] The two bombers traveled southwest along the coast of Norway, skirting United Kingdom airspace, turning east through the straits of Gibraltar, and achieved their goal of firing cruise missiles on Syria from the eastern Mediterranean. After their mission was complete, they flew northeast over Iran and the Caspian Sea to their home base in Engles, Saratov Oblast, in Southern Russia.[3] In total, the flight lasted 16 hours, with the aircraft traveling 8,000 miles, while motivating Norway[4] and Britain,[5] among other nations, to scramble fighter jets in the process. Presumably, the Russians chose such a circuitous route along the edges of Europe to demonstrate its long range bombing capabilities. In doing so, the Russian Federation also showed the rest of the world that its capabilities might rival those of the United States, proving that Russia too could attack targets all throughout the world. This use of an Arctic airbase for active bombing missions also marks a turning point in history; not even during the Cold War did the Russians demonstrate Arctic-based military capabilities with such expansive reach.[6] While this mission did not focus on targets within the Arctic, the use of an Arctic base for active bombing missions draws attention to Russia’s military buildup in the region...
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Syria, Arctic, and United States of America
4609. Arctic Strategy: Trust the Invisible Hand
- Author:
- Victor Marsh
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- On April 18, 1775, Massachusetts businessman and U.S. revolutionary Paul Revere alerted fellow patriots that British military action against the rebellion in Boston would come by sea rather than by land. The warning that “the [British] regulars are coming” was a verbal intelligence report. It was based on what Revere and his associates had seen with their own eyes. They interpreted the visual data correctly; British military action came the very next day via an initial naval landing of troops that engaged in the first battles of the United States’ Revolutionary War. Intoning the urgency of Mr. Revere, these U.S. analysts and Alaskan politicians seek to inspire a sense of urgency within United States decision-making, warning that the Russians are coming to dominate the north. While taking exhaustive notes on the ambiguous “duality” in Russia’s Arctic policies, the pessimists have nonetheless quickly resolved this open question and pronounced with alarm the fear that Russia is secretly deploying a “new ice curtain,” meaning actions to deny the United States access to the allegedly vital Arctic region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Diplomacy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Arctic, and United States of America
4610. Counter-Piracy as a Model for an Arctic Task Force: An Opportunity for International Cooperation
- Author:
- Tracy Reynolds
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- The Arctic region sits at a jumping-off point. The international community may choose to leap toward global tension and a reinvigoration of Cold War-style conflict in the high north. Or, those with interests in the region may choose to elevate the current spirit of cooperation and build extant multilateral partnerships into lasting formal relationships that will safeguard and develop regional interests. Organizations such as the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) and its affiliated organizations already work together to promote security, stability, and prosperity across 3.2 million square miles of international waters. Naval forces, nation-states, international organizations, non-governmental organizations, and private industry voluntarily work together without political or military mandate.[1] The organizational structure is flexible, maximizes each contributing partner’s assets, encourages communication among all interested stakeholders, and builds upon already established networks. Arctic stakeholders need only turn to CMF and its affiliated organizations to find a model for future Arctic cooperation. The necessary international will,[2] multilateral partnerships, and international organizations currently exist to serve as the foundation for an Arctic organizational structure in the spirit of CMF operations. Current momentum is toward more cooperation among Arctic stakeholders. However, the global order is fragile and tides are subject to ambiguous change. The present serves as an opportune time to begin working toward CMF-style operations in the Arctic...
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Piracy
- Political Geography:
- Arctic, Global Focus, and United States of America
4611. 2015 Symposium Sheds Light on Complexities of Shale Oil
- Author:
- Tareq Radi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- This year’s symposium, entitled “An Energy Revolution? Political Ecologies of Shale Oil in the Middle East, US, and China,” set out to assess the political, economic, human, and environmental impacts of shale oil and its technologies of extractiong lobally, and particularly on the societies and economies of the MENA region.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, and Academia
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and United States of America
4612. George Salem: A Mission of Love
- Author:
- Vicki Valosik
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- For more than three decades, CCAS Board Member George Salem has sought ways to improve the lives of Palestinians and Arab Americans.
- Topic:
- Government, Humanitarian Aid, Business, Profile, and Advocacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
4613. Innovative Approaches to Teaching About the Middle East
- Author:
- Susan Douglass
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- The Education Outreach program of the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies hosted nine events for educators during the 2014-2015 academic year. As a National Resource Center, CCAS was able to support these programs, in part, with funding from a Title VI grant from the Department of Education. These events included the annual summer institute and a Teach-In on Iraq and Syria, while several other innovative events fell under three main themes: literature, anthropology, and cultural exploration through interactive museum excursions.
- Topic:
- Education, Anthropology, and Higher Education
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and United States of America
4614. MAAS Students Bring Scholars and Activists to Campus
- Author:
- Vicki Valosik
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- This semester, second-year students in the Masters of Arts in Arab Studies (MAAS) program planned several major campuswide events that brought together scholars and activists—some coming from as far away as Morocco—and gave these student organizers the opportunity to explore their academic interests outside the classroom.
- Topic:
- Security, Education, Political Activism, Arab Countries, Higher Education, and Advocacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America
4615. Remembering and Making History in Egypt
- Author:
- Vicki Valosik
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- Dr. Hoda Elsadda has spent years documenting history—as it has been lived and experienced by women in Egypt—but this time she’s the one making history. Elsadda, a Professor of English and Comparative Literature at Cairo University and current Carnegie Foundation Centennial Fellow at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, served on the “Committee of 50” delegates who wrote the historic 2014 Egyptian constitution.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, History, Women, Constitution, Arab Spring, and Higher Education
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, Egypt, and United States of America
4616. Recalibration and Surprises: A Primer on the Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Election
- Author:
- Allen Keiswetter
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- This is a capstone paper for a series of MEI scholar articles titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections." Will the 2016 vote for president be a foreign policy election? How will the Middle East figure in the campaign as it gains momentum? The accepted wisdom is that domestic issues, especially economic matters, will be decisive in voters’ minds. A year away from the election, it is unclear whether foreign policy issues will figure in a major way but the portent is there. The turbulent Middle East could easily burst into election politics as it has several times in the past.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and United States of America
4617. The Future of NATO in the New Security Environment. A Former Newcomer’s View
- Author:
- Marek Madej and Robert Czulda
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- The article ‘The Future of NATO in the New Security Environment. A Former Newcomer’s View’, analyses the role of NATO alliance in the contemporary security environment within the context of its priorities defined by new Strategic Concept 2010, having special attention on potential role of former newcomers and potential new members.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, North America, and United States of America
4618. Islam and Islamism: A Primer for Teachers and Students
- Author:
- Samuel Helfont
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- Defining – and distinguishing between – the terms Islam and Islamism has broad consequences for America, both domestically and internationally. However, teaching about the relationship between these two concepts involves negotiating numerous sensitivities and it can cause considerable consternation for educators. At the most basic level, Islam is a major world religion practiced by well over a billion people, and Islamism is a political ideology to which a subset of the broader Islamic community adheres. The importance of this distinction seems fairly clear. The United States, and the American body politic more generally, views itself as committed to secular governance and religious freedom. While Islam is not completely immune from criticism, Americans have traditionally objected to state interference in religious matters and, theoretically, they should expect the same standards to apply to Islam. Therefore, Islam as a religion would seem to have a clear place in the diverse fabric of American society. Islamism, as a political ideology, opens itself to harsher critiques and even questions about its appropriateness in, or compatibility with, the American political system. Unsurprisingly, American public discourse suggests that Americans generally feel much more comfortable with Islam than they do with Islamism.
- Topic:
- Islam, Political Economy, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4619. The New Energy Innovation Economy
- Author:
- Dave Grossman, Roger Ballentine, and Andy Karsner
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The 2015 Clean Energy Innovation Forum, “The New Energy Innovation Economy,” was co-chaired again this year by Roger Ballentine of Green Strategies and Andy Karsner of Manifest Energy. Topics discussed included the ongoing transformation of the energy user experience; distributed generation and disruption incumbent electricity business model; challenges in bridging the energy technology gap between development and adoption; and the impact of climate concerns on accelerating change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Markets, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4620. Leaning Into the Energy System of the Future
- Author:
- Dave Grossman, Clint Vince, and Sue Tierney
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The 2015 Energy Policy Forum, “Leaning Into the Energy System of the Future,” was co-chaired by Sue Tierney, Managing Principal of The Analysis Group and former Assistant Secretary of Energy for Policy, and Clint Vince, Chair of the U.S. Energy Practice at Dentons U.S. LLP. Topics discussed included new global energy pricing realities and the effects on domestic energy; the Clean Power Plan; the electricity source mix of the future; and new business models needed to deal with current markets realities.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Global Markets, and Financial Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4621. Engaging State Legislators: Lessons for the Education Sector
- Author:
- Kristin Soltis Anderson and Marisa Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- This report distills the learnings from focus groups, in-depth interviews, and a two-day symposium with over 50 state legislative leaders and explores how they get their information, what matters most to them, and how groups that work with state legislators can engage them most effectively. As state legislators work to get education policy right, make sure you have the inside track on how they work and what they need to be effective.
- Topic:
- Education, Human Welfare, Communications, Governance, and Employment
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4622. Transforming U.S. Workforce Development Policies for the 21st Century
- Author:
- Carl Van Horn, Tammy Edwards, and Todd Greene
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Transforming U.S. Workforce Development Policies for the 21st Century explores how new policies and practice can meet the changing needs of workers, businesses and their communities. Produced in partnership by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Kansas City, and the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University, this edited volume presents contributions from more than 65 leading scholars and practitioners engaged in workforce development. The book includes chapters co-written by two leaders at the Economic Opportunities Program.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, Politics, Communications, and Employment
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4623. Courting a New Ally in the Quest for Equality: Closing the Implementation Gap between Law and Practice in India
- Author:
- Jasmine Wyatt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Ambassadors Review
- Abstract:
- India has a long history of passing laws and signing treaties and conventions focused on eliminating violence against women and ensuring women’s equal rights. Some of the world’s most progressive laws are embodied in India’s Constitution: women had the right to vote and were considered equal citizens since the beginning of Independence—a feat even the United States and Britain did not manage to accomplish. Nevertheless, gender inequality remains a daily reality in India, sometimes with deadly consequences.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Human Rights, History, Governance, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, India, and United States of America
4624. On US and Haiti Relations: The Ties that Bind
- Author:
- Pamela A. White
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Ambassadors Review
- Abstract:
- Haiti is the last country I will serve as a United States diplomat abroad and it was one of the first places I served early in my career. My perspectives on US and Haitian relations have ripened over decades of observation and years of first-hand experience. The question I have been asked most is: “Why does the US Government care about Haiti? There are only about 11 million Haitians, the majority are poor, and they don’t even speak English.” And then the same people answer their own question: “Oh, I know, the United States doesn’t want 40,000 boat people landing on its shores—better to keep them in Haiti!”
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Haiti and United States of America
4625. Alternative Waste Solutions for the Pacific Region: Learning from the Hawai’i Experience
- Author:
- Jordan P. Howell
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- With limited space and ever-growing trash, the islands of the Pacific share unique challenges managing their solid wastes. The traditional approach has been to collect waste in open dumps and landfills. But overwhelmed sites and unsanitary conditions are driving governments to seek alternative solutions. Hawai'i has implemented "resource recovery" systems in past decades to deal with waste, including an innovative energy-from-waste project on O'ahu, and a recycling/composting program on Maui that focuses on diverting material from landfills. While both have been successful in reducing waste and generating products, the programs have also endured unexpected delays and problems. Despite differences in scale and capacity, the Hawai'i experience offers insights for other Pacific islands into how to tackle their own solid waste management issues, and create systems and policies that deliver the greatest ecological and economic benefits.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Governance, and Climate Finance
- Political Geography:
- Hawaii and United States of America
4626. Alternative Waste Solutions for the Pacific Region: Learning from the Hawai’i Experience
- Author:
- Jordan Howell
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- With limited space and ever-growing trash, the islands of the Pacific share unique challenges managing their solid wastes. The traditional approach has been to collect waste in open dumps and landfills. But overwhelmed sites and unsanitary conditions are driving governments to seek alternative solutions. Hawai'i has implemented "resource recovery" systems in past decades to deal with waste, including an innovative energy-from-waste project on O'ahu, and a recycling/composting program on Maui that focuses on diverting material from landfills. While both have been successful in reducing waste and generating products, the programs have also endured unexpected delays and problems. Despite differences in scale and capacity, the Hawai'i experience offers insights for other Pacific islands into how to tackle their own solid waste management issues, and create systems and policies that deliver the greatest ecological and economic benefits.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4627. Morals in International Politics
- Author:
- A. Orlov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The world is changing fast; it is changing by leaps and bounds which makes it next to impossible to explain what is going on and to foresee possible repercussions.1 An unsophisticated observer in the West and elsewhere in the world where Western propaganda is heard and believed might imagine that the forces of freedom and democracy are waging an uncompromising struggle against despotism and tyranny (in the widest sense of the terms). It is implied that the United States and the rest of the civilized West are on the side of the forces of good confronted by an obscure conglomerate of the forces of evil, of which Russia is part if according to President Obama and certain other Western leaders. Former President of France Valéry Giscard d’Estaing has written in his memoirs that according to this interpretation the forces of good insist on democratic elections, human rights, and freedom of trade; America does not hesitate to use its might to defend good and oppose the forces of evil interfering with the fulfillment of these ideals.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, International Affairs, Elections, and Ethics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
4628. Reconsidering the Greater Europe Concept in the Context of the Ukrainian Crisis
- Author:
- A. Kuznetsov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Ukrainian Storm of 2013-2014 pushed the world dangerously close to Cold War. The coup and the bloodshed which swept the country were caused by the refusal of the Yanukovich regime to draw closer to the EU no matter what rather than by the fairly acute social, economic and political disagreements inside the country. The consecutive packages of anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the European Union and coordinated, to a great extent, with the U.S. and several other non-european allies look very logical in the context of the stalled dialogue between the two key European players. it was in 2012-2013 that many of the expert community recognized an absence of a more or less noticeable progress in moving toward a visa-free regime between the EU and Russia and in settling other important bilateral issues for what it really was: the EU’s unwillingness to develop equal partnership with Russia rather than technical discrepancies (according to Brussels). Its attention was riveted to the Eastern Partnership program designed, among other things, to detach CIS countries from Russia and draw new dividing lines in Europe.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Armed Struggle, Sanctions, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
4629. Reforming U.S. Export Controls Reforms: Advancing U.S. Army Interests
- Author:
- Dr. Richard Weitz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The U.S. defense export system needs further major reforms to reduce inefficiencies and weaknesses. Although the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) do help prevent potential foreign adversaries from using U.S. arms against the United States and its allies, the Regulations, as enforced, can weaken U.S. national security in other important ways. For example, by excessively impeding defense exports, the ITAR makes it more difficult for U.S. firms to sustain core U.S. defense technological and industrial advantages, decreases U.S. military interoperability with allies that purchase ITAR-free weapons from other sources, and generates other undesirable effects for the U.S. Army and U.S. national security.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Reform, and Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4630. Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
- Author:
- Henry D. Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players. This, in a nutshell, is the premise of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what nuclear futures we may face over the next 3 decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How great will the consequences be? What can be done?
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, International Security, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran, North Korea, and United States of America
4631. Enabling Others to Win in a Complex World: Maximizing Security Force Assistance Potential in the Regionally Aligned Brigade Combat Team
- Author:
- Liam P. Walsh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Beginning in 2013, the U.S. Army began an effort to “engage regionally and respond globally.” A central tenant of this strategy, building upon National strategic guidance, is the necessity to build partner capacity. Army units, through the regionally aligned forces concept, may find themselves conducting security force assistance (SFA) missions across the globe as a means to achieve these ways. However, after examining the Army’s SFA mission in Operation IRAQI FREEDOM from 2003-10, it becomes apparent that institutional and organizational shortcomings plagued the Army’s initial efforts in this critical aspect of the campaign. Many of these shortcomings remain in the Army today, particularly within the Army’s core formation—the brigade combat team (BCT). This monograph examines the Army’s role in conducting SFA in Iraq, drawing key lessons for the Army’s experience there, and then provides recommendations as to how the Army can better optimize the BCT to conduct SFA, while still retaining its core mission to fight and win America’s wars.
- Topic:
- National Security, War, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and United States of America
4632. Autonomous Weapon Systems: A Brief Survey of Developmental, Operational, Legal, and Ethical Issues
- Author:
- Jeffrey L. Caton
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- What does the Department of Defense hope to gain from the use of autonomous weapon systems (AWS)? This Letort Paper explores a diverse set of complex issues related to the developmental, operational, legal, and ethical aspects of AWS. It explores the recent history of the development and integration of autonomous and semi-autonomous systems into traditional military operations. It examines anticipated expansion of these roles in the near future as well as outlines international efforts to provide a context for the use of the systems by the United States. As these topics are well-documented in many sources, this Paper serves as a primer for current and future AWS operations to provide senior policymakers, decision-makers, military leaders, and their respective staffs an overall appreciation of existing capabilities and the challenges, opportunities, and risks associated with the use of AWS across the range of military operations. Emphasis is added to missions and systems that include the use of deadly force.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4633. Lethal and Legal? The Ethics of Drone Strikes
- Author:
- Dr. Shima D. Keene
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- While supporters claim that drone warfare is not only legal but ethical and wise, others have suggested that drones are prohibited weapons under International Humanitarian Law (IHL) because they cause, or have the effect of causing, indiscriminate killings of civilians, such as those in the vicinity of a targeted person. The main legal justification made by the Barack Obama Administration for the use of armed drones is self-defense. However, there is ambiguity as to whether this argument can justify a number of recent attacks by the United States. In order to determine the legality of armed drone strikes, other factors such as sovereignty, proportionality, the legitimacy of individual targets, and the methods used for the selection of targets must also be considered. One justification for the ethical landscape is the reduced amount of collateral damage relative to other forms of strike. Real time eyes on target allow last-minute decisions and monitoring for unintended victims, and precise tracking of the target through multiple systems allows further refinements of proportionality. However, this is of little benefit if the definition of “targets” is itself flawed and encompasses noncombatants and unconnected civilians. This monograph provides a number of specific recommendations intended to ensure that the benefits of drone warfare are weighed against medium- and long-term second order effects in order to measure whether targeted killings are serving their intended purpose of countering terrorism rather than encouraging and fueling it.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, War, Counter-terrorism, and Ethics
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4634. The Human Terrain System: Operationally Relevant Social Science Research in Iraq and Afghanistan
- Author:
- Dr. Christopher Sims
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The Human Terrain System embedded civilians primarily in brigade combat teams (BCTs) in Iraq and Afghanistan between 2007 and 2014 to act as a collection and dispersal mechanism for sociocultural comprehension. Set against the backdrop of the program’s evolution, the experiences of these social scientists clarifies the U.S. Army’s decision to integrate social scientists at the tactical level in conflict. Based on interviews, program documents, material from Freedom of Information Act requests, and secondary sources, this book finds a series of limiting factors inhibiting social science research at the tactical level, common to both Iraq and Afghanistan. Complexity in integrating civilians into the military decision-making cycle, creating timely research with a high level of fidelity, and making granular research resonate with brigade staff all contributed to inhibiting the overall effect of the Human Terrain System. Yet, while high operational tempo in contested spaces complicates social science research at the tactical level, the author argues that there is a continued requirement for a residual capability to be maintained by the U.S. Army.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, and United States of America
4635. Mastering the Gray Zone: Understanding a Changing Era of Conflict
- Author:
- Gregory Aftandilian
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This manuscript examines the increasingly important form of rivalry and statecraft that has become known as “gray zone strategies.” In regions from Eastern Europe to the South China Sea, such tactics in the hands of ambitious regional powers pose a growing challenge to U.S. and allied interests. This monograph aims to provide a broad introduction to the issue to help leaders in the U.S. Army and the wider joint Department of Defense and national security community better understand this challenge. Dr. Michael Mazarr, a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and Associate Program Director of the Army’s Arroyo Center there, defines the issue, examines the most notable current cases of gray zone strategies, offers several hypotheses about the nature of this form of conflict, and suggests a number of policy responses.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, National Security, Politics, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4636. Strategic Insights: A New Era in Civ-Mil Relations: Rendering Advice to Those Who Do Not Want It
- Author:
- Dr. Don Snider
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Recently, one of the most respected voices of those who work and teach in the field of American civil-military (civ-mil) relations, Professor Peter Feaver, provocatively offered the following question: When it comes to national security, should one advise President Barack Obama on the best course of action or just the best course of action that he is likely or able to accept and implement?1 Thus, owing primarily to the Obama administration’s difficult civ-mil relations and what some consider to be ineffective policy implementation, particularly in Syria, this question is now sprouting up in journalistic reporting, academic journals, and in classroom discussions here at the U.S. Army War College. The import of the question for military professionals lies in the fact that it could lead one outside the traditional norms of American civil-military relations. These norms have in general held that the responsibility of senior military leaders is simply to give their best professional military advice – no shading allowed, and most certainly no shading that might make policy implementation less than fully effective. In fact in the Army’s new doctrine of the profession (ADRP 1 – The Army Profession),2 the principles are clearly stated: Military leaders offer their expertise and advice candidly to appropriate civilian leadership . . . Army professionals properly confine their advisory role to the policymaking process and do not engage publically in policy advocacy or dissent. Army professionals adhere to a strict ethic of political nonpartisanship in the execution of their duty.3
- Topic:
- National Security, Politics, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4637. Training Humans for the Human Domain
- Author:
- Dr. Steve Tatham and Keir Giles
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Experience from Afghanistan and Iraq has demonstrated the vital nature of understanding human terrain, with conclusions relevant far beyond counterinsurgency operations in the Islamic world. Any situation where adversary actions are described as “irrational” demonstrates a fundamental failure in understanding the human dimension of the conflict. It follows that where states and their leaders act in a manner which in the U.S. is perceived as irrational, this too betrays a lack of human knowledge. This monograph offers principles for operating in the human domain which can be extended to consideration of other actors which are adversarial to the United States, and whose decision-making calculus sits in a different framework to our own — including such major states as Russia and China. This monograph argues that the human dimension has become more, not less, important in recent conflicts and that for all the rise in technology future conflicts will be as much defined by the participants’ understanding of culture, behavior, and language as by mastery of technology.
- Topic:
- Islam, Science and Technology, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4638. Strategic Insights: Economic Power: Time to Double Down
- Author:
- Professor John F. Troxell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- A recent editorial in The New York Times asked the question, “Who threatens America most?” It proceeded to compare recent pronouncements by incoming senior military leaders, the President, the FBI director, and finally the Director of National Intelligence. The major candidates included the usual nation states (Russia, North Korea, and China), a few nonstate terrorist organizations (ISIS and al-Qaeda), and a couple of unattributed capabilities (weapons of mass destruction and cyberattacks). The editorial concluded with the lament: “If officials cannot agree on what the most pressing threats are, how can they develop the right strategies and properly allocate resources?”1 Given the confusion and uncertainty generated by the current strategic environment, compounded by America’s resource-driven retrenchment, it is a fair question. However, I contend that we could pursue a more focused national strategy and do a better job of allocating resources if we focus on the opportunities as opposed to this wide array of threats. The opportunity that beckons is the increasingly interconnected global economy and the integral role played by the United States in both its institutional design and future evolution. A functioning, interconnected global economy will mitigate most, if not all, of the previously mentioned threats, whereas a fractured and disconnected global economy will exacerbate them.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Economics, Governance, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
4639. The Ethics of Drone Strikes: Does Reducing the Cost of Conflict Encourage War?
- Author:
- Dr. James Igoe Walsh and Marcus Dr. Schulze
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Armed unmanned aerial vehicles—combat drones—have fundamentally altered the ways the United States conducts military operations aimed at countering insurgent and terrorist organizations. Drone technology is on track to become an increasingly important part of the country’s arsenal, as numerous unmanned systems are in development and will likely enter service in the future. Concerned citizens, academics, journalists, nongovernmental organizations, and policymakers have raised questions about the ethical consequences of drones and issued calls for their military use to be strictly regulated. This level of concern is evidence that the future of drone warfare not only hinges on technical innovations, but also on careful analysis of the moral and political dimensions of war. Regardless of whether drones are effective weapons, it would be difficult to sanction their use if they undermine the legitimacy of U.S. military forces or compromise the foundations of democratic government.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Welfare, War, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, Ethics, and Drones
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4640. The Limits of Offshore Balancing
- Author:
- Dr. Hal Brands
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Is offshore balancing the right grand strategy for America? Is it time for Washington to roll back the vast system of overseas security commitments and forward military deployments that have anchored its international posture since World War II? This monograph argues that the answer to these questions is no. Offshore balancing represents the preferred grand strategy among many leading international-relations “realists,” who argue that significant geopolitical retrenchment can actually improve America’s strategic position while slashing the costs of its foreign policy. The reality, however, is rather different. The probable benefits of offshore balancing—both financial and geopolitical—are frequently exaggerated, while the likely disadvantages and dangers are more severe than its proponents acknowledge. In all likelihood, adopting this strategy would not allow America to achieve more security and influence at a lower price. The more plausible results would be to dissipate U.S. influence, to court heightened insecurity and instability, and to expose the nation to greater long-range risks and costs.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4641. Developing Emerging Leaders: The Bush School and the Legacy of the 41st President
- Author:
- Dr. Joseph R. Cerami
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The main focus of this monograph is to synthesize the top research on leadership and leader development and to highlight the needs for developing individuals committed to careers of service across the public, private, and nonprofit sectors. The foundation for the research is based on ideas drawn from leadership and management literature, government doctrine and reports, think tank studies, and case studies. The Army has long sought to be innovative in its leader development. Most recently, the Army’s Human Development White Paper supports TRADOC Pamphlet 5250301, The U.S. Army Operating Concept, “Win in a Complex World” document (2014), by emphasizing the Army’s desire to become the nation’s leader in “human development.” In short, the Army Operating Concept requires that emerging leaders must understand the political-social-military environmental context, the defense-diplomatic-development (the 3-Ds) policies of the U.S. Government, and their roles as emerging leaders and followers in a variety of operational settings. Collaboration, not just within the Army, but across government agencies will be crucial to success in this complex operating environment.
- Topic:
- Development, Human Welfare, Military Strategy, Power Politics, Governance, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4642. Strategic Insights: The Will To Fight
- Author:
- Dr. M. Chris Mason
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Events on world battlefields over the past two years should give the U.S. Army pause to reconsider the entire Foreign Internal Defense (FID) mission. The seemingly unarguable axiom that "good training makes good soldiers" has been proven to be not always true. Good training does not always make good soldiers. If the definition of a good soldier is "a member of the armed forces who stands and fights for his or her country," then a good deal of money has been spent in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere without measurable and sustainable success. More than a third of all Afghan defense forces trained with U.S. taxpayer money desert in Afghanistan each year, and in Iraq they simply disappear.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Education, Nationalism, Military Strategy, Labor Issues, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States of America
4643. The Future Security Environment: Why the U.S. Army Must Differentiate and Grow Millennial Officer Talent
- Author:
- Colonel Michael J. Arnold
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The dynamic nature of the future security environment necessitates better retention of diversified talent among officers from the Millennial Generational Cohort. Although the U.S. Army has done well to attract a diverse and talented group of junior officers at commissioning, a revision of the Army’s Personnel System, that incorporates a more personalized management approach, could help to motivate and retain millennial officers and better prepare them for senior leadership. Lieutenant colonels and colonels must provide the transformational leadership and innovation needed to create the intrinsic value that millennials seek in their profession. In order to explore what is most appealing to talented millennial officers and what is most effective for the Army, this Carlisle Paper will explore, as its methodology, the salient features of leadership theory, the characteristics of the Millennial Generational Cohort, and what senior leaders must do to improve attraction, motivation, and retention of millennial officers in the U.S. Army.
- Topic:
- Education, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4644. Terrorist and Insurgent Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Use, Potentials, and Military Implications
- Author:
- Dr. Robert J. Bunker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This manuscript focuses on the present threat posed by terrorist and insurgent use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as well as associated future threat potentials. This work presents a counterintuitive analysis in the sense that armed drones are typically viewed as a component of America’s conventional warfighting prowess—not a technology that would be used against U.S. troops deployed overseas or against civilians back home. The emerging threat of such UAV use against the United States is investigated, and the unique analysis and creative approach related to the threat scenario variants generated are very informative. Hopefully, the larger implications posed by this analysis related to semi-autonomous and autonomous UAV type robotic systems will be of benefit.
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Drones
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4645. 2015-16 Key Strategic Issues List
- Author:
- Professor John F. Troxell
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The recently published National Military Strategy emphasizes the unpredictability of the global security environment. According to General Dempsey, “global disorder has significantly increased while some of our comparative military advantage has begun to erode. We now face multiple, simultaneous security challenges…” General Odierno echoes this concern by pointing to the “increased velocity of instability,” and emboldened potential adversaries that have “magnified the risk to U.S. interests around the world.” Responding to this period of geopolitical uncertainty demands thoughtful and careful analysis of a wide array of strategic issues. The Strategic Studies Institutes’ (SSI) annual Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL) addresses this need by providing a list of high-priority topics organized to support the Army's most important strategic objectives, issues that must be addressed to ensure the Army of 2025 and beyond will continue to meet the needs of the nation. Part I of the KSIL lists the Chief of Staff of the Army’s top five topics, all five of which will be addressed as integrative research projects by the US Army War College. Part II, “Priority Research Areas,” is a compilation of critical topics developed by the Army War College and Commands and organizations throughout the Army. Part III consists of the Army Warfighting Challenges. Students and researchers are encouraged to get in touch with the topic sponsors listed in the document, tackle one of these issues, and contribute to the knowledge base needed to support the future direction of the Army
- Topic:
- Security, War, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4646. A Shared Burden: The Military and Civilian Consequences of Army Pain Management Since 2001
- Author:
- Trebilcock. Colonel Craig
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The Army has an opioid drug problem that is not going away under current personnel policies and medical practices. The survey results recorded here indicate that senior officers attending the U.S. Army War College recognize that the opioid problem is distinct in nature and origin from those of recreational drug abuse. The majority of these future Army leaders see misuse originating out of prescribing practices, a lack of medical monitoring, and a lack of Soldier training and education on the dangers of opioids, rather than from undisciplined Soldiers.
- Topic:
- Education, War on Drugs, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4647. The Limits of Military Officers’ Duty to Obey Civilian Orders: A Neo-Classical Perspective
- Author:
- Robert E. Atkinson Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This monograph offers a neo-classically republican perspective on a perennial problem of civilian/military relations: limitations on military officers’ obligation to obey civilian authorities. All commentators agree that military officers are generally obliged—morally, professionally, and legally—to obey civilian orders, even as they agree that this rule of obedience must admit of exceptions. Commentators tend to differ, however, on the basis and breadth of these exceptions. Following Samuel Huntington’s classic analysis in The Soldier and the State, this monograph shows that disagreement about the breadth of the exceptions tends to assume that their bases—moral, professional, and legal—are incommensurable. It suggests, to the contrary, that all defensible exceptions to the rule of military obedience, like that rule itself, derive from a single neo-classical, Huntingtonian standard, binding on civilian authorities and military officers alike: the common good. This perspective promises significantly to reduce the range of disagreement over the limits of military obedience both in theory and in practice.
- Topic:
- Education, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4648. The Chinese People's Liberation Army in 2025
- Author:
- David Lai and Roy Kamphausen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This volume is of special relevance in light of the profound changes occurring within the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). China’s desire to develop a military commensurate with its diverse interests is both legitimate and understandable. The challenge for U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM) is to understand how China will employ this growing military capability in support of its interests. The book addresses the uncertainty surrounding the potential direction of the PLA by examining three distinct focus areas: domestic, external, and technological drivers of PLA modernization; alternative futures for the PLA; and, implications for the region, world, and U.S.-China relations. The analysis provides an insightful perspective into the factors shaping and propelling the PLA’s modernization, its potential future orientation ranging from internally focused to globally focused, and how the PLA’s choices may impact China’s relations with its neighbors and the world.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
4649. Strategic Insights: Fragile States Cannot Be Fixed With State-Building
- Author:
- Dr. Robert D. Lamb
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The problem with the way the international community thinks about and responds to fragile states is not that we do not understand “fragility,” its causes, and its cures, but that we think of them as “states,” as coherent units of analysis. As a result of this strategic level mistake, efforts to build state capacity to contain violence and reduce poverty are at least as likely to destabilize the country as they are to help. The U.S. military should consider the destabilizing potential of its efforts to build capacity, train and equip security forces, and provide support to diplomacy and development when its partners and beneficiaries are officials of fragile states. State formation has always been an exceedingly bloody endeavor. Most stable countries worthy of the term “state” that are stable, including wealthy, Western, liberal, or democratic nation-states, came into being through complicated social processes, including war, ethnic cleansing, or genocide. That violence was followed by an institutionalization of the values and social priorities of the victors, combined with some degree of accommodation for the vanquished across and within the new state’s borders. State formation, in other words, has always been a matter of violent exclusion followed by pragmatic inclusion. In all successful states today, those processes have resulted in stable formal political systems, with a significant degree of internal consensus over how those systems should be governed. Today, a quarter of the world’s population, and half of the world’s poor people by some estimates, live in places commonly referred to as “fragile states,” beset by conflict, poverty traps, low social cohesion and, in many cases, cycles of violence and terror. These pathologies are not contained within the borders of fragile states, however. As it is ritually noted in most articles on state fragility, these are places that often generate dangerous spillovers: regional tensions, international terrorism, transnational organized crime, an inability to contain outbreaks of disease, and other problems generally associated with the term “instability.” But fragile states are not “states” in the same sense as those that are stable. They developed differently. They went through periods of tribal governance and warfare and, in some cases, territorial consolidation, as European states did, but then most were subjected to colonization by distant powers or severe domination by regional hegemons, in both cases with foreigners imposing borders and manipulating local politics, elevating one set of elites at the expense of populations with whom they did not share a tribal, ethnic, or national identity. When those foreign powers left (or reduced their footprint), the empowered elites either held on to power or were removed from power by their former subjects. In both cases, the internal fragmentation of views about governance—who should govern and how—remained and in all fragile states continues to be one of the most important determinants of fragility. The most common international responses to these pathologies tend to be exploitation by regional powers, containment by developed countries concerned about spillovers of violence, and capacity building of national institutions by international development agencies attempting to address the “root causes” of fragility by building state structures capable of governing the way “states” are supposed to govern. Looking at these two sets of countries—well governed, legitimate, and stable on one side, with poorly governed, illegitimate, and unstable on the other—it is understandable to conclude that, if only fragile states were more legitimate and better governed, they would also be more stable, peaceful, and prosperous. Post-conflict reconstruction, stabilization, poverty reduction, and other efforts to improve the quality of life for people living in fragile and conflict environments tend, therefore, to focus on building the legitimacy and capacity of state institutions, both military and civilian. Efforts to reduce the spillover of violence and terrorism likewise have key elements of state-building. When, however, has state-building ever worked? That is, when has foreign assistance to formal state institutions and civil society over an extended period of time, in places whose borders were drawn by, and whose elites were elevated by, foreign powers but where local populations do not agree with each other over basic questions of legitimate governance, ever resulted in the establishment of a stable state, one that is no longer “fragile” (in the usual definitions) or at significant risk of a return to violent politics? Consider the places often cited as state-building success stories. When I have asked proponents of state-building to name unambiguous successes, the responses most commonly include Germany and Japan after World War II, East Timor, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and sometimes Rwanda. But Germany and Japan were already states with highly developed bureaucracies that were largely left in place after their military forces were defeated. These were not cases of state-building but of state recovery and, in truth, they have little to teach us about how to stabilize fragile states. The borders of East Timor and Kosovo came into being as a result of wars; they are clear examples of state formation still in progress, and it is difficult to call Kosovo a success story when that country’s stability continues to depend so much on an international presence. Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Rwanda have made progress, but they have not been stable long enough to be considered stabilized, and certainly they continue to appear on lists of fragile states. Moreover, some post-conflict countries that have done things “right” according to the typical state-building script have dramatically regressed into violence—El Salvador is an excellent example—whereas some that have done things “wrong,” such as Laos, have managed to remain stable for more than 40 years. As a thought experiment, consider the following two possibilities. A fragile state is territorially fragmented along ethnic and sectarian lines, there are frequent civilian attacks between identity groups, the parliament and ministries are dominated by one group at the expense of the others and, as a consequence, there is constant low-level violence punctuated by periods of intense internal war and repression by the majority ethnic group, which nevertheless enjoys international recognition and assistance as “the” government and the “partner” whose “capacity” is to be built. Years of pouring resources into that government and its security forces serve only to strengthen one group at the expense of the others, providing counsel (and few incentives) to treat the other groups better while giving them the capacity to treat the other groups worse, thereby increasing the potential for conflict. Yet, even in such places, there are some stable, reasonably well-governed territories and communities that maintain a great degree of independence from the central government, with consensus on how they want to be governed, capable of collecting the resources they need to do so (in some cases democratically), and able to defend themselves against external aggression. Somaliland is an excellent example, but most fragile states have similar communities (large percentages of Afghans, for example, have reported that the conflict this past decade simply never affected their community). Such places look suspiciously like they are engaging in classic state formation, and doing so with neither support from their national governments nor recognition from the international community—whose support of their national governments often undermines local, successful state formation. I am not arguing that the international community should try to break up fragile states into more stable territories. Outsiders are not likely to be any more effective at redrawing the borders of fragile states today than the outsiders who drew the modern borders of those counties in the first place. But when a country falls apart in a civil war such that the state can no longer be said to be relevant in some areas of the country, or when the elites in control of national governing institutions fail to support or recognize the legitimacy of large segments of their own populations, due consideration should be given to those areas of the country that manage to stabilize on their own and govern the areas they control in ways that are more consistent with international norms than the central government is or had been. State-building is ineffective, and breaking up states is dangerous. International support to (if not recognition of) subnational state formation in fragile states is, therefore, among the more promising ways to think about how best to respond to fragile states. ***** The views expressed in this Strategic Insights article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This article is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** Organizations interested in reprinting this or other SSI and USAWC Press articles should contact the Editor for Production via e-mail at SSI_Publishing@conus.army.mil. All organizations granted this right must include the following statement: “Reprinted with permission of the Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, U.S. Army War College.”
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- El Salvador and United States of America
4650. First Things First for Future Defense Strategy
- Author:
- Mr. Nathan P. Freier and Ms. Laura McAleer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The Department of Defense (DoD) will face a dramatic and sustained transition period over the next decade. At no other time in recent memory have American defense strategists faced such a dizzying and complex array of challenges like those which they will be required to direct their attention, energy, and resources toward in the coming years. It is frankly impossible to overstate the scale and complexity of the decisions that they will be required to make. This degree of uncertainty and complexity makes the task of deliberately charting a responsible way ahead that much more difficult and urgent.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4651. Strategy Education Across the Professional Military Education Enterprise
- Author:
- Colonel John C. Valledor
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Since the horrific attacks against the U.S. homeland on September 11, 2001 (9/11), the U.S. has been engaged in two very long and costly wars, with the war in Afghanistan formally ending on December 2014. At the heart of the grand strategy supporting these conflicts was the desire to deny failing and failed states from becoming the launch pad for future attacks. The closest the nation came to a grand strategy—known for years by its now familiar alias—“The Global War on Terror”2—served to focus U.S. military efforts and galvanize popular support for a common strategic cause. The use of U.S. military force against certain countries in the greater Middle East has done much to eliminate terror-training camps and prevent al-Qaeda from launching large-scale follow-on attacks against the homeland. Nevertheless, U.S. military engagements overseas have unleashed many unforeseen consequences that have complicated the ability to achieve policy objectives.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, and Homeland Security
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4652. Bridging the Planning Gap: Incorporating Cyberspace Into Operational Planning
- Author:
- Colonel Martha S. H. VanDriel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Cyberspace operations have a far-reaching, permanent impact on military operations. At the conceptual level, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) now recognizes five warfighting domains: land, maritime, air, space, and cyber.1 While there are examples of how cyberspace support to military operations have advanced over the past decade, one gap has not been addressed in detail—operational planning. It is clear that in U.S. military operations, the land, maritime, air, and space domains rely heavily on cyberspace. Therefore, cyberspace operations must be viewed in the context of all domains and be included as part of the overall operational scheme of maneuver. For if a commander postures his or her command to fight an adversary in the first four domains but ignores cyberspace, not only will that commander have ceded the cyberspace domain to the adversary, but the adversary can then proceed to undermine that commander’s effectiveness in the other four domains.
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, War, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4653. Stand Up and Fight! The Creation of U.S. Security Organizations, 1942-2005
- Author:
- Colonel Ty Seidule and Dr. Jacqueline E. Whitt
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Stand Up and Fight is a collection of essays that explores how new National Security Organizations are stood up—that is, formed, organized, funded, and managed—in the first years of their existence. From Joint ventures to combatant commands to cabinet-level departments, each organization’s history reveals important themes and lessons for leaders to consider in forming a new organization. A substantive introduction defines the scope of the project and outlines several important themes including organizational rivalry, the problems of analogical reasoning, the use of simulations, the consequences of failure, the significance of leadership and organizational culture, working with allies, the role of fear and emotion, and the basic advice that “the best defense is a good offense.” The book includes thirteen substantive chapters, each of which covers a different national security organization. Section I on U.S. unified combatant commands includes chapters on U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), U.S. Joint Forces Command (JFCOM), U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), U.S. Transportation Command (TRANSCOM), and Space Command (SPACECOM). Section II, on sub-unified commands and organizations includes chapters on U.S. Cyber Command (CYBERCOM) and the Vietnam-era Civil Operations and Revolutionary Development Support (CORDS). Section III deals with issues of allied commands and covers military government in post-WWII Germany, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). Section IV explores Department of Defense and cabinet-level organizations including The U.S. Air Force (USAF), the National Security Agency (NSA), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The conclusion again draws out several relevant themes and offers some practical recommendations and insights for leaders who are charged with standing up a new organization.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Homeland Security
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4654. Russian Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean: Return to the "Strategic Game" in a Complex-Interdependent Post-Cold War World?
- Author:
- Dr. R. Evan Ellis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In February 2015, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Latin America to meet with leaders and defense officials in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Although the visit included Russian participation in a Venezuelan military exercise, the focus of the meetings in all three countries was on access to ports and airfields in the region in order to support Russian military operations in the vicinity of the United States.1 The discussions bore the most fruit in Nicaragua, where Minister Shoigu signed an agreement to facilitate Russian access to the ports of Corinto and Bluefields, as well as strengthening counter-drug cooperation and discussing weapons sales.2
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Latin America, Venezuela, and United States of America
4655. Maturing Defense Support of Civil Authorities and the Dual Status Commander Arrangement through the Lens of Process Improvement
- Author:
- Dr. Sue McNeil and Ryan Burke
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The authors advocate the integration of process improvement methods into future Defense Support of Civil Authorities (DSCA) operations. They briefly discuss alternative process improvement strategies and their current state of employment in a variety of DoD programs. Methods discussed include Lean Six Sigma, Total Quality Management, and Capability Maturity Models, the utility of such methods is demonstrated, and the value in applying process improvement methods to DSCA operations is articulated. Three recommendations are given to demonstrate how a usable process maturity model can be built and employed for future operations. The monograph concludes by reaffirming the inherent utility of, and advocating for, process improvement techniques as a way to mature future DSCA operations using the dual status commander arrangement.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4656. Another Brick in the Wall: The Israeli Experience in Missile Defense
- Author:
- Dr. Jean-Loup Samaan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- For the last 4 decades, Israel has been challenged by the rise of ballistic arsenals in the Middle East. If, at first, the country kept relying on its traditional offensive doctrines, it eventually developed missile defense programs in the early-1980s through U.S.-Israel cooperation and then in the 2000s with the building of its iconic Iron Dome. This Israeli experience in missile defense reveals crucial lessons on the military adaptation to both new threats and new remedies that have direct implications for the United States and its allies.
- Topic:
- War, History, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Israel and United States of America
4657. The State-Society/Citizen Relationship in Security Analysis: Implications for Planning and Implementation of U.S. Intervention and Peace/State-building Operations
- Author:
- Dr. Yannis A. Stivachtis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The end of the Cold War, and especially the events of September 11, 2001, have led to the redefinition of the U.S. Army’s role. In this new environment, the purpose of the U.S. Army is not only to win a battle or a war, but also to be involved effectively in peace operations in post-conflict societies. To make the U.S. Army more effective requires prior knowledge about the political, societal, and cultural environment within which these operations would take place, as well as the acquisition of a new set of skills that would allow the U.S. Army to handle sensitive situations relevant to this environment. Due to the presence of several “weak” states in the international system, the United States needs to devise and employ strategies aimed at preventing and managing the outbreak of domestic conflicts that have the potential of undermining regional and international peace and stability. To avoid oversimplifications in the planning process, U.S. policymakers should have a comprehensive view of the relationship between the state experiencing domestic conflict and its society/citizens. For the design and effective implementation of peacemaking and peace/state-building policies, U.S. strategists should be fully aware of what constitutes a security issue for social groups and individuals in third countries. Thus, U.S. strategic planning and actions should be based on the adoption of the broaden definition of security as well as the idea of human security. Since international stability is based on the stability of states, the United States needs to assist the creation and maintenance of “strong” states.
- Topic:
- Politics, International Security, Peacekeeping, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4658. Toward a Unified Military Response: Hurricane Sandy and the Dual Status Commander
- Author:
- Dr. Sue McNeil and Ryan Burke
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The 2013-14 Army War College Key Strategic Issues List stated: “If Hurricane Sandy is seen as an archetype of a complex catastrophe, then a careful analysis of the effectiveness of the DoD response within the context of dual status commanders [DSCs], lead federal agencies, and state response capabilities needs to be conducted.” This monograph does exactly that as it carefully and comprehensively analyzes the DSC-led military response to Hurricane Sandy in New York. Through this lens, it illustrates and discusses the perspectives of the DSC construct and offers recommendations for leveraging existing capabilities and improving those deemed insufficient. Using a case study approach, this analysis addresses notable issues of constitutionality, legality, policy, financial considerations, and even politics, all uniquely situated between individual states’ interests and those of the federal government. To provide military and defense officials with a greater understanding of the benefits and limitations of the DSC arrangement during a no-notice/limited-notice incident, this monograph offers objective and systematic documentation of the Sandy response. It concludes by offering a series of actionable recommendations aimed at improving operational decision-making, policy, and legislation specifically related to DSCs during no-notice/limited-notice incidents.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare, Natural Disasters, Governance, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4659. Thucydides Was Right: Defining the Future Threat
- Author:
- Dr. Colin S. Gray
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- To define future threat is, in a sense, an impossible task, yet it is one that must be done. The only sources of empirical evidence accessible are the past and the present; one cannot obtain understanding about the future from the future. The author draws upon the understanding of strategic history obtainable from Thucydides’ great History of the Peloponnesian War. He advises prudence as the operating light for American definition of future threat, and believes that there are historical parallels between the time of Thucydides and our own that can help us avoid much peril. The future must always be unpredictable to us in any detail, but the many and potent continuities in history’s great stream of time can serve to alert us to what may well happen in kind.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Politics, War, and History
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4660. Always Strategic: Jointly Essential Landpower
- Author:
- Dr. Colin S. Gray
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- American Landpower is a strategic instrument of state policy and needs to be considered as such. This monograph explores and explains the nature of Landpower, both in general terms and also with particular regard to the American case. The monograph argues that: (1) Landpower is unique in the character of the quality it brings to the American joint team for national security; (2) the U.S. has a permanent need for the human quality in Landpower that this element provides inherently; (3) Landpower is always and, indeed, necessarily strategic in its meaning and implications—it is a quintessentially strategic instrument of state policy and politics; (4) strategic Landpower is unavoidably and beneficially joint in its functioning, this simply is so much the contemporary character of American strategic Landpower that we should consider jointness integral to its permanent nature; and, (5) notwithstanding the nuclear context since 1945, Landpower retained, indeed retains, most of the strategic utility it has possessed through all of history: this is a prudent judgment resting empirically on the evidence of 70 years’ experience. In short, the strategic Landpower maintained today safely can be assumed to be necessary for security long into the future. No matter how familiar the concept of strategic Landpower is when identified and expressed thus, it is a physical and psychological reality that has persisted to strategic effect through all of the strategic history to which we have access.
- Topic:
- National Security, Politics, History, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Landpower
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4661. The Enduring Importance of Family Wealth: Evidence from the Forbes 400, 1982 to 2013
- Author:
- Philip Korom, Mark Lutter, and Jens Beckert
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- The social science literature proposes two competing explanatory frameworks for the existence and longevity of super-fortunes: superstar or winner-take-all mechanisms, suggesting an increased dominance of new self-made billionaires; and mechanisms focusing on inherited advantages, suggesting an enduring importance of old family fortunes. Using panel data from the USA’s annual Forbes 400 ranking (1982–2013), this study analyzes factors that increase or decrease the likelihood of remaining listed among the American super-rich. We find initially that the percentages of self-made entrepreneurs among the highest wealth echelons of US society have increased significantly since 1982. Sectors that improved the most are finance (including hedge funds and private equity), new technology and mass retail. The decline of inheritance as a source of wealth and the rise of new tech and finance fortunes suggest low reproduction rates among superrich property owners. Family wealth, however, plays an important role if the longevity of fortunes is considered. While the literature predicts family fortunes to be taxed away, divided among a large number of heirs, or lost through incompetence, we find that scions of inherited great wealth (mostly up to the third generation) are more likely to remain listed in the Forbes 400 roster than self-made entrepreneurs. We conclude that even though entrepreneurship increasingly matters for becoming super-rich, it is first and foremost the ability of rich family dynasties to retain control over corporations and to access sophisticated financial advice that makes fortunes last.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, Social Stratification, and Landpower
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4662. Players and New Rules of the Game Politics as Organized Combat: New in Sweden.
- Author:
- Stefan Svallfors
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- As Hacker and Pierson (2010) have observed, politics is primarily organization: “organized combat.” To understand the outcomes of politics, we have to look at how it is organized over time: by whom and with what resources? I take Sweden as an example of how politics as organized combat has changed quite dramatically in recent decades. Sweden is often cited as an opposite to the United States among the rich capitalist countries, but it has experienced many encompassing policy changes which have not received the attention they deserve. The paper specifies how Swedish organized politics has changed fundamentally, including the dismantling of corporatist arrangements, changes in the economic policy decision-making framework, increased income inequality, weakened political parties and changes in their social bases, the decline of blue-collar union strength, the growth of the policy professionals category, the increased impact of multilevel politics, and the mediatization of politics. Today’s amorphous, invisible mode of elite-driven policy-making diverges greatly from the old corporatist structures and is accompanied by dramatically increasing inequality. Even in Sweden, the impact of money on politics has become stronger. The paper discusses what this implies for current politics and policy-making in Sweden.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Sweden and United States of America
4663. The US Eligible-to-Naturalize Population: Detailed Social and Economic Characteristics
- Author:
- Robert Warren and Donald Kerwin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- Naturalization has long been recognized as a crucial step in the full integration of immigrants into US society. Yet until now, sufficient information on the naturalization-eligible has not been available that would allow the federal government, states, localities, and non-governmental service providers to develop targeted strategies on a local level to assist this population to naturalize and to overcome barriers to eligibility. This paper remedies that deficiency by providing detailed estimates on the naturalization-eligible from data collected in the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS).
- Topic:
- Government, Immigration, Reform, Naturalization, and Census
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4664. Piecing Together the US Immigrant Detention Puzzle One Night at a Time: An Analysis of All Persons in DHS-ICE Custody on September 22, 2012
- Author:
- Donald Kerwin, Daniela Alulema, and Siqi Tu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes a dataset of every person in the custody of the US Department of Homeland Security Immigration and Customs Enforcement (DHS-ICE or ICE) on September 22, 2012, and compares this data with an earlier analysis of a similar dataset on detainees in DHS-ICE custody on January 25, 2009. DHS-ICE provided the 2012 and 2009 datasets in response to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests from the Boston Globe and Associated Press. The paper sets forth findings related to: (1) the removal adjudication processes to which the detainees were subject; (2) the facilities in which they were held; (3) their length of detention; and (4) their criminal histories, if any.
- Topic:
- History, Immigration, Prisons/Penal Systems, Reform, and Homeland Security
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
4665. Unlocking Human Dignity: A Plan to Transform the US Immigrant Detention System
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- Unlocking Human Dignity: A Plan to Transform the US Immigrant Detention System addresses one of the most troubled features of the US immigration system and highlights the need for fundamental changes to it. The report comes six years since the inception of the Obama administration’s detention reform initiative. In the interim, the number of immigrant detainees per year has risen to more than 400,000, the administration has opened immense new family detention centers, and the overwhelming majority of persons in the custody of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have remained in prisons, jails and other secure facilities where they are subject to standards designed for criminal defendants and, in many ways, treated more harshly than criminals.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Prisons/Penal Systems, Border Control, Reform, and Homeland Security
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4666. Humanitarian Protection for Children Fleeing Gang-Based Violence in the Americas
- Author:
- Elizabeth Carlson and Ann Marie Gallagher
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- By the end of 2011, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) began to see a steady rise in the number of Unaccompanied Alien Children (UAC) from Central America, particularly from the Northern Triangle countries— El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala—arriving to the US-Mexico border. The number of children entering the United States from these countries more than doubled during fiscal year (FY) 2012 and continued to grow through FY 2014. In FY 2013, CBP apprehended over 35,000 children. That number almost doubled to 66,127 in FY 2014, with Central American children outnumbering their Mexican counterparts for the first time. Research has identified high levels of violence perpetrated by gangs and drug cartels in the Northern Triangle countries and Mexico as a primary reason for this surge. Under the William Wilberforce Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act (TVPRA) passed with bi-partisan support in 2008, children from Central America cannot be deported immediately and must be given a court hearing.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, War on Drugs, Border Control, Children, and Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Central America and United States of America
4667. In Harm’s Way: Family Separation, Immigration Enforcement Programs and Security on the US-Mexico Border
- Author:
- Jeremy Slack, Daniel E. Martinez, Scott Whiteford, and Emily Peiffer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- The Consequence Delivery System (CDS) is a suite of border and immigration enforcement programs designed to increase the penalties associated with unauthorized migration in order to convince people not to return (Rosenblum 2013). Despite its inauguration in 2011, many aspects of the CDS are not new. CDS does however, mark a shift from the deterrent strategy that, in the 1990s that relied heavily on the dangers of the natural terrain to dissuade unauthorized border crossers, to one that actively punishes, incarcerates, and criminalizes them. This article presents findings from the Migrant Border Crossing Study, a random sample survey of 1,100 recently deported migrants in six cities in Mexico conducted between 2009 and 2012. It examines the demographics and family ties of deportees, their experiences with immigration enforcement practices and programs under the CDS, and how these programs have reshaped contemporary migration and deportation along the US-Mexico border. The article covers programs such as criminal prosecutions of illegal entries under Operation Streamline, and the Alien Transfer and Exit Program (ATEP) or lateral repatriation program which returns immigrants to different locations from where they illegally entered. In relationship to these programs, it considers issues of due process and treatment of deportees in US custody. It also examines interior enforcement under Secure Communities, which, during the study period, comprised part of the overarching border security plan, and screened virtually everybody arrested in the United States against immigration databases.
- Topic:
- Crime, Demographics, Immigration, Border Control, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Mexico and United States of America
4668. Book Review: Diaspora Lobbies and the US Government: Convergence and Divergence in Making Foreign Policy By Josh DeWind and Renata Segura, eds. New York, NY: Social Science Research Council and New York University Press, 2014. 320 pages.
- Author:
- Thomas Ambrosio
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- While concerns about the loyalties of “hyphenated Americans” remain, the widespread acceptance of multiculturalism in American society has legitimized activities by ethnic groups to advocate within the US political system on behalf of their country of origin and its interests. This phenomenon is not new, but it has received heightened scholarly attention since the end of the Cold War for three reasons. First, given the level of American power, the United States has fewer constraints on its actions on the international stage and therefore its internal sources of conduct are more important — interest groups of all types could potentially influence US foreign policy to a greater degree than before. Second, the United States’ highly diverse ethnic composition means that nearly every event outside the country has an impact on at least some of its citizens; moreover, there are a multitude of ethnic groups vying for influence over US foreign policy. This diversity and mobilization has increased over the past few decades. Lastly, the decentralized nature of the American political system (and, in particular, the US Congress) allows for multiple points of entry into the policy-making process, which, in turn, grants these groups greater influence. Ethnic interest groups are a core part of this system and they must be taken into account when seeking to explain American foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, Politics, and Ethnicity
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4669. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Fall 2015
- Author:
- Julia McQuaid, Patricio Asfura-Heim, Dr. Jose de Arimateia da Cruz, Taylor Alvarez, and Tal Tovy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- In 2009, a militant Islamist group commonly known as Boko Haram began a campaign of terror across northeastern Nigeria with the main purpose of removing all Western influences and replacing the national government with an Islamic state. For more than a decade, the U.S. government has worked extensively with foreign governments to counter these types of acts around the world, often with mixed results. As such, interoperability, or the capacity of one element of the government to work with another, has become a critical component of America’s international relations and national security policies. As we transition from U.S. involvement in ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to monitoring civil unrest throughout the Middle East and Africa, American forces must continue to apply the fundamentals of counterinsurgency (COIN) and cultural operations to their roles within the evolving battlespace.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cybersecurity, History, Boko Haram, and Vietnam War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Vietnam, South America, North America, Nigeria, and United States of America
4670. Military Highly Enriched Uranium and Plutonium Stocks in Acknowledged Nuclear Weapon States
- Author:
- David Albright and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Science and International Security
- Abstract:
- Plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU), called “fissile materials,” were first produced in large quantities for use in nuclear weapons. Starting in World War II, and for over two decades afterwards, almost all the plutonium and HEU in the world was produced for these immensely destructive weapons. This production was centered almost exclusively in five states: Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States. In the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) these five countries are designated as “nuclearweapon states” because all five had manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon prior to January 1, 1967. To this day, they remain the only acknowledged nuclear weapon states. Although other countries possess nuclear weapons, the acknowledged states have gained a special status in international affairs. As part of that status, however, these five states also committed to work towards nuclear disarmament, in particular steps accompanied by the elimination of their own stocks of fissile material for nuclear weapons. At the end of 2014, these five states had military stocks totaling about 238 tonnes of plutonium and 1,330 tonnes of HEU, mostly weapon-grade uranium (WGU is defined as HEU enriched over 90 percent). Table 1 provides a summary of the results. Tables 2 and 3, located at the end of the report, provide official declarations or detailed estimates of each country’s military plutonium and HEU holdings. These tables provide extensive endnotes describing official declarations, other sources, and the derivation of the various estimates. In addition to aggregate totals, tables 2 and 3 provide partial information about the various types of military stocks held by these five countries, including fissile material dedicated to nuclear weapons activities and naval propulsion programs, and declared excess to defense requirements.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Uranium, and Plutonium
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Russia, China, France, and United States of America
4671. The Asia-Pacific and the Royal Canadian Navy
- Author:
- Eric Lerhe
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Over the past five years, there have been repeated academic and media calls for greater Canadian engagement in the Asia-Pacific, with the Royal Canadian Navy taking the lead. Such engagement, it was claimed, was needed to reflect Canada’s increasing economic links, rapidly-growing personal ties to the area, and the deteriorating security climate, especially in the South China Sea. Despite government claims that Canada “gets it” as to the importance of the region, little of consequence has occurred and our Navy’s Atlantic dominance remains. For this and other reasons, Canada is now widely considered “absent” from the region. This paper argues that this cannot safely continue as both our security and our access to the rapidly growing Pacific economies will be at risk. The paper then examines our history in the area, the 2011 U.S. “Pacific pivot,” our own weak “mini pivot,” and the current security situation before providing detailed recommendations for greater Canadian naval engagement.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Military Affairs, and Navy
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and South China Sea
4672. After America, Canada’s Moment?
- Author:
- Ian Brodie
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The last decade has seen serious setbacks to the global role of the United States. Iraq, Afghanistan and the 2008 economic crisis provoked deep partisan debates about American policy but little in the way of consensus on how to respond. Meanwhile, America’s rivals have gained strength and a new south-south economy of investment and trade has emerged. There is little disagreement that the U.S. has lost its relative power to influence developments around the world. Is this Canada’s moment to extend our global influence? Canada’s privileged geography gives us freedom to choose where and how to engage beyond North America. We have opportunities across the Atlantic and across the Pacific, as evidenced by our simultaneous negotiations at the CETA and TPP tables. But freedom of choice means we have trouble committing to relationships beyond North America. Unlike, say, Australia, which must engage in the Pacific, we face no natural imperative to be “all in” in Asia. Moreover, even though Canada does not have a history as a colonial power, we are often ambivalent about engaging with the new global south. We prefer to deal with emerging economic powers through clubs we already belong to - the G-20, the Commonwealth and the Francophonie. But as south-south institutions displace the influence of the “world America made”, the room for Canada to exercise global influence has declined. We were once welcome as a dependable joiner of international clubs, but we are having trouble joining newer, more dynamic clubs like the Pacific Alliance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, and United States of America
4673. The Influence of Foreign Direct Investment, Intrafirm Trading, and Currency Undervaluation on US Firm Trade Disputes
- Author:
- J. Bradford Jensen, Dennis P. Quinn, and Stephen Weymouth
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The authors investigate a puzzling decline in US firm antidumping (AD) filings in an era of persistent foreign currency undervaluations and increasing import competition. Firms exhibit heterogeneity both within and across industries regarding foreign direct investment (FDI). Firms making vertical, or resource-seeking, investments abroad are less likely to file AD petitions and firms are likely to undertake vertical FDI in the context of currency undervaluation. Hence, the increasing vertical FDI of US firms makes trade disputes far less likely. Data on US manufacturing firms reveals that AD filers generally conduct no intrafirm trade with filed-against countries. Persistent currency undervaluation is associated over time with increased vertical FDI and intrafirm trade by US multinational corporations (MNCs) in the undervaluing country. Among larger US MNCs, the likelihood of an AD filing is negatively associated with increases in intrafirm trade. The authors confirm that undervaluation is associated with more AD filings. However, high levels of intrafirm imports from countries with undervalued currencies significantly decrease the likelihood of AD filings. The study also highlights the centrality of firm heterogeneity in international trade and investment in understanding political mobilization over international economic policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4674. Where Does the Biggest Gorilla in the Room Sit? Milk, the United States and International Trade Negotiations
- Author:
- Bruce Muirhead
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- As Robert Reich, a former labor secretary under Bill Clinton, once asked, with reference to the United States, “Where does the biggest gorilla sit? Anywhere it likes.” Dairy has long been a protected sector in the United States, which has a history of constructing its own reality with respect to freeing up international trade in agricultural products, milk included, and of ignoring or renegotiating commitments when they did not suit the government of the day. This background paper explores the historical evolution of US trade and agricultural policy as seen through its position on the dairy file in international trade regulations.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Food, and Food Security
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4675. Security ties or electoral connections? The US Congress and the Korea–US Free Trade Agreement, 2007–2011
- Author:
- Jungkun Seo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
- Institution:
- Japan Association of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Conventional wisdom is that trade policy is often guided by geopolitical security considerations. A growing body of research addresses the security–trade linkage as a plausible cause for executive negotiations over the Korea–US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) in 2007. Yet, the approval of a trade deal with the Asian ally by America's legislature in 2011 features not only ‘security ties’ but also ‘electoral connections’. This paper seeks to examine the question of whether alliance relationships would inevitably translate into domestic commitments. Bringing domestic politics into consideration, this article also fills the gap in the literature on Congress-focused research of the KORUS FTA and sheds light on how lawmakers strike a balance between the principle of US foreign policy and the reality of conflicting domestic interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Geopolitics, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, Korea, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
4676. Settler-State Political Theory, 'CANZUS' and the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples
- Author:
- Kirsty Gover
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- When the UN General Assembly voted in 2007 to adopt the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP), only Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the USA cast negative votes. This article argues that the embedding of indigenous jurisdictions in the constitutional orders of these states via negotiated political agreements limits their capacity to accept certain provisions of the UNDRIP. Once the agreement-making process is set in motion, rights that do not derive from those bargains threaten to undermine them. This is especially true of self-governance and collective property rights, which are corporate rights vested to historically continuous indigenous groups. Since these rights cannot easily be reconciled with the equality and non-discrimination principles that underpin mainstream human rights law, settler governments must navigate two modes of liberalism: the first directed to the conduct of prospective governance in accordance with human rights and the rule of law and the second directed to the reparative goal of properly constituting a settler body politic and completing the constitution of the settler state by acquiring indigenous consent. Agreements help to navigate this tension, by insulating indigenous and human rights regimes from one another, albeit in ways not always supported by the UNDRIP.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Canada, United Nations, Australia, New Zealand, and United States of America
4677. Internet Freedom and Human Rights
- Author:
- Daniel Joyce
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- This article considers whether the Internet has become so significant, for the provision of, and access to, information and in the formation of political community and associated questions of participation, that it requires further human rights protection beyond freedom of expression. In short, should Internet freedom be configured as a human right? The article begins by considering the ubiquity of the Internet and its significance. A wider historical view is then taken to understand Internet freedom in terms of its lineage and development from earlier debates over freedom of expression and the right to communicate, through to the recognition of the significance of an information society and the need for Internet regulation on the international plane. The current debate over Internet freedom is then analysed with particular focus given to Hillary Clinton’s speech on Internet freedom and its subsequent articulation by Special Rapporteur Frank La Rue. The concluding part introduces the critical work of Evgeny Morozov and Jaron Lanier to an international law audience in order to deepen the debate over Internet freedom and to point to the concept’s limitations and dangers. It is too early to say whether a ‘right to Internet freedom’ has achieved universal recognition, but this article makes the case that it is worth taking seriously and that Internet freedom may need its own category of protection beyond freedom of expression.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, History, Regulation, Internet, and Freedom of Expression
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America
4678. Double Remedies in Double Courts
- Author:
- Sungjoon Cho and Thomas H. Lee
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- This article uses an ongoing trade controversy litigated in US courts and the World Trade Organization dispute resolution system as a vehicle for exploring different models to deal with parallel adjudications in different legal systems between the same or related parties on the same issue. In lieu of more traditional models of subordination or first-to-decide sequencing, the article proposes an engagement model as a solution to the double-courts, single-issue problem.
- Topic:
- International Law, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, and Courts
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
4679. Surabhi Ranganathan. Strategically Created Treaty Conflicts and the Politics of International Law
- Author:
- Sabrina Safrin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- Treaty conflicts may be inevitable, but what do we make of conflict by design? In Strategically Created Treaty Conflicts and the Politics of International Law, Surabhi Ranganathan thoughtfully explores nations’ purposeful creation of conflicts between treaties to advance their political goals and to restrict the impact of treaties to which they object. Essentially, states fight legal fire with legal fire. If they object to a multilateral treaty regime, they create another regime that effectively conflicts with, or cabins, the treaty regime that they object to rather than simply walking away.
- Topic:
- International Law, Treaties and Agreements, Book Review, and Law of the Sea
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
4680. M. Sornarajah. Resistance and Change in the International Law on Foreign Investment
- Author:
- Harm Schepel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- In 1994, Muthucumaraswamy Sornarajah published the first edition of his treatise, The International Law on Foreign Investment. There, he sought to demonstrate that investment law as a separate branch of international law was ‘in the process of development’ and could and should be isolated for separate study. Organizing his material from the disparate sources of domestic law, contract-based arbitration and public international law along the overarching tension between the interests of developing countries and those of traditionally capital-exporting states, his stated aim was to ‘help in the identification of the nature of the disputes’, which would lead, in turn, to the ‘formulation of acceptable solutions’. The treatise was a well-timed pioneering effort that rightfully earned the author a lasting reputation as one of the founding fathers and towering figures of the academic discipline. There seems to be no one better placed, then, to ask, 20 years on, what happened or, rather, what went wrong. Investment law has developed with breathtaking speed into a (very) separate branch of international law – yes – but almost entirely on the waves of treaty-based investor–state arbitration, which has all but eclipsed contractual and domestic processes, at least in terms of academic interest. And this system has, in the eyes of Sornarajah and many others, rather spectacularly failed to lead to ‘acceptable solutions’, especially for developing countries.
- Topic:
- International Law, Treaties and Agreements, Foreign Direct Investment, Neoliberalism, and Book Review
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
4681. Amérique latine - L’année politique 2015
- Author:
- Maya Collombon, Hélène Combes, Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Marie-Laure Geoffray, Ana Carolina González Espinosa, Erica Guevara, Damien Larrouqué, Marilde Loiola de Menezes, Frédéric Louault, Frédéric Massé, Mohcine Mounjid, Eduardo Rios, and Darío Rodriguez
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Sociology, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Cuba, Arab Countries, Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, Venezuela, Mexico, and United States of America
4682. Une puissance parmi d'autres : évolution des enjeux et défis géostratégiques de la France en Océanie (One Among Many: Changing Geostrategic Interests and Challenges for France in the South Pacific)
- Author:
- Denise Fisher
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- France, which is both an external and resident South Pacific power by virtue of its possessions there, pursues, or simply inherits, multiple strategic benefits. But the strategic context has changed in recent years. China's increased presence; consequent changes in the engagement of the US, Japan and Taiwan; and the involvement of other players in the global search for resources, means that France is one of many more with influence and interests in a region considered by some as a backwater. These shifts in a way heighten the value of France's strategic returns, while impacting on France's capacity to exert influence and pursue its own objectives in the region. At the same time, France is dealing with demands for greater autonomy and even independence from its two most valuable overseas possessions on which its influence is based, New Caledonia and French Polynesia. How it responds to these demands will directly shape the nature of its future regional presence, which is a strategic asset.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Natural Resources, Colonialism, Political Science, and Decolonization
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Taiwan, France, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and United States of America
4683. ICE Officers Overwhelmingly Use Their Discretion to Detain LGBT Immigrants
- Author:
- Sharita Gruberg
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- On November 20, 2014, as part of President Barack Obama’s executive actions on immigration, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, or DHS, Secretary Jeh Johnson issued a memorandum that established priorities to guide all aspects of immigration enforcement regarding the apprehension, detention, and removal of unauthorized immigrants.1 Those priorities have focused government resources on addressing threats to public safety, national security, and border security rather than on unauthorized immigrants who have been in the United States for years without committing serious crimes. That memorandum, in addition to outlining enforcement priorities, clarified that certain categories of vulnerable people—unless subject to mandatory detention—should not be detained absent extraordinary circumstances.2 Although the memo does not specifically mention lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender—or LGBT—immigrants, due to their extreme risk of abuse in detention, they are recognized as a “special vulnerability” category by the DHS.3 Data obtained recently by the Center for American Progress through a Freedom of Information Act request revealed that despite the priorities outlined in the memo, the DHS elected to detain a higher percentage of LGBT immigrants who were not subject to mandatory detention in fiscal year 2015 than the year before the memorandum was issued.4 These data indicate that Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, officers ignored Secretary Johnson’s enforcement priorities when making custody decisions for LGBT immigrants.
- Topic:
- Migration, Immigration, Discrimination, LGBT+, Labor Policies, and Police
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4684. Veiled Repression: Mainstream Economics, Capital Theory, and the Distributions of Income and Wealth
- Author:
- Lance Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- The Cambridge UK vs USA capital theory debates of the 1960s showed that the workhorse mainstream growth model relies on unsustainable assumptions. Its standard interpretation is not consistent with the last four decades of data. Part of an estimated increase in the ratio of personal wealth to income in recent years is due to higher asset prices. The other side of the accounts reveals that financialization and growing business debt partially offset the greater net worth of households. Attempts to interpret growth in wealth principally as a consequence of capitalization of rents are misleading. An alternative growth model based on Cambridge ideas can help correct these misinterpretations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Income Inequality, Economic Theory, Repression, Capital, Redistribution, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4685. The American Dual Economy: Race, Globalization, and the Politics of Exclusion
- Author:
- Peter Temin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- I describe the American economy in the twenty-first century as a dual economy in the spirit of W. Arthur Lewis. Similar to the subsistence and capitalist economies characterized by Lewis, I distinguish a low-wage sector and a FTE (Finance, Technology, and Electronics) sector. The transition from the low-wage to the FTE sector is through education, which is becoming increasingly difficult for members of the low-wage sector because the FTE sector has largely abandoned the American tradition of quality public schools and universities. Policy debates about public education and other policies that serve the low-wage sector often characterize members of the low-wage sector as black even though the low-wage sector is largely white. This model of a modern dual economy explains difficulties in many current policy debates, including education, healthcare, criminal justice, infrastructure and household debts.
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, Globalization, Race, Capitalism, Exclusion, and Public Service
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4686. Inequality, Debt Servicing, and the Sustainability of Steady State Growth
- Author:
- Mark Setterfield, Yun K. Kim, and Jeremy Rees
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- We investigate the claim that the way in which debtor households service their debts matters for macroeconomic performance. A Kaleckian growth model is modified to incorporate working households who borrow to finance consumption that is determined, in part, by the desire to emulate the consumption patterns of more affluent households. The impact of this behavior on the sustainability of the growth process is then studied by means of a numerical analysis that captures various dimensions of income inequality. When compared to previous contributions to the literature, our results show that the way in which debtor households service their debt has both quantitative and qualitative effects on the economy’s macrodynamics.
- Topic:
- Debt, Inequality, Islamic State, Economic Theory, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4687. Did Quantitative Easing Increase Income Inequality?
- Author:
- Juan Montecino and Gerald Epstein
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- The impact of the post-meltdown Federal Reserve policy of ultra-low interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) on income and wealth inequality has become an important policy and political issue. Critics have argued that by raising asset prices, near-zero interest rates and QE have significantly contributed to increases in inequality, while practitioners of central banking, counter that the distributional impact have probably been either neutral or even egalitarian in nature due to its employment impacts. Yet there has been little academic research that addresses empirically this important question. We use data from the Federal Reserve’s Tri-Annual Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and look at the evolution of income by quintile between the “Pre- QE period” and the “QE period” analyzing three key impact channels of QE policy on income distribution: 1) the employment channel 2) the asset appreciation and return channel, and 3) the mortgage refinancing channel. Using recentered influence function (RIF) regressions pioneered by Firpo et. al (2007) in conjunction with the well-known Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique, we find that while employment changes and mortgage refinancing were equalizing, these impacts were nonetheless swamped by the large dis-equalizing effects of equity price appreciations. Reductions in returns to short term assets added further to dis-equalizing processes between the periods. Bond price appreciations, surprisingly, had little distributional impact. We cannot know precisely how much of these changes are due to QE as opposed to other influences, but to assess potential causal effects we utilize a counter-factual exercise to assess the quantitative range of impacts of QE on the main channels. We conclude that, most likely, QE was modestly dis-equalizing, despite having some positive impacts on employment and mortgage refinancing. The modestly dis-equalizing impacts were due to both policy choices and deep seated structural problems, such as the long-term deterioration in labor market opportunities for many workers due to globalization and legal and political reductions in labor bargaining power that have contributed to long term wage stagnation. Finally, there is no support in our analysis, for the proposition that raising interest rates would be an efficient mechanism for improving income distribution, because of the likely costs in terms of employment and debt refinancing opportunities.
- Topic:
- Federal Reserve, Inequality, Income Inequality, Fiscal Policy, and Wage Growth
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4688. Innovative Enterprise or Sweatshop Economics? In Search of Foundations of Economic Analysis
- Author:
- William Lazonick
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- By integrating the history of industrial development in Britain and the United States with the ideas of leading economic thinkers, this essay demonstrates the absurdity of perfect competition as the ideal of economic efficiency. In Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, Joseph Schumpeter asserts: “perfect competition is not only impossible but inferior, and has no title to being set up as a model of ideal efficiency.” For neoclassical economists, the large corporation is a “market imperfection” that, compared with “perfect competition,” should result in higher product prices and lower industry output. Yet business history reveals the capability of the most productive enterprises to generate massive quantities of output at low costs to attain large market shares with buyers benefiting from low prices even as employees receive higher pay and shareholders ample dividends. By integrating the history of industrial development in Britain and the United States with the ideas of leading economic thinkers, this essay demonstrates the absurdity of perfect competition as the ideal of economic efficiency. Indeed, I show that, in their desire to make the market rather than the firm the main arbiter of resource allocation, neoclassical economists have enshrined the sweatshop as the foundation of their analysis, with profoundly negative consequences for understanding how a modern economy actually operates and performs. In doing so, neoclassical economists ignore not only the economic history of capitalism but also the intellectual history of their own discipline. I conduct a journey through two hundred years of economic thought – from Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations (1776) to Alfred Chandler’s The Visible Hand (1977) – to derive analytical foundations for a theory of innovative enterprise that can explain and explore firm- level sources of productivity growth in the economy. What then do more sophisticated theories of the firm rooted in the neoclassical tradition have to offer? In a section of this essay that I call (borrowing a phrase from Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means) “Economic Theory for ‘an Era of Corporate Plundering’,” I outline the shortcomings of Williamsonian transaction-cost theory and Jensenian agency theory for analyzing the role of the business corporation in the operation and performance of the economy. From the perspective of the theory of innovative enterprise, I demonstrate how the methodology of constrained optimization trivializes the business enterprise while the ideology that companies should be run to maximize shareholder value legitimizes financial predators, many senior corporate executives among them, in the looting of the industrial corporation. The “era of corporate plundering” since the mid-1980s has contributed to extreme concentration of income among the richest households and the erosion of middle- class employment opportunities. Finally, I call for a transformation of economic thinking so that the innovative enterprise is at the center of economic analysis. The theory of innovative enterprise exposes as costly intellectual failures “perfect competition” as the ideal of economic efficiency, “constrained optimization” as the prime tool of economic analysis, and “maximizing shareholder value” as the ideology of superior corporate governance. The theory of innovative enterprise provides, moreover, a clear and compelling rationale for sharing the gains of business enterprise among stakeholders in the broader community, in conjunction with government policies that seek to support sustainable prosperity, characterized by stable and equitable economic growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, Business, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4689. The Cyclically Adjusted Budget: History and Exegesis of a Fateful Estimate
- Author:
- Orsola Costantini
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- This paper traces the evolution of the concept of the cyclically adjusted budget from the 1930s to the present. The idea of balancing the budget over the cycle was first conceived in Sweden in the 1930s by the economists of the Stockholm School and was soon reinterpreted and incorporated into the fiscal program of the American political coalition supporting the New Deal, especially by the Committee for Economic Development during and after World War II. In the 1960s, Keynesian economists associated with the Kennedy and Johnson administrations reformulated the notion. Despite their claims at the time, their version differed only in degree from the earlier CED approach, the transformation being largely conditioned by changing political circumstances. In the 1980s, however, the concept changed substantially. Methods for calculating it transformed dramatically, as the notion became a device to limit and direct governments’ fiscal policies in a wide sense, that is, including institutional (or “structural”) reforms. The final section of the paper considers the shifting uses of the notion in the European Growth and Stability Pact.
- Topic:
- Economics, Budget, Economic Growth, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
4690. When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles and Crises
- Author:
- Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang. Based on a study of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis recessions are more costly than normal recessions in terms of lost output; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. In additional to unconditional analysis, we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macroeconomic controls and their lags. Then we study how past credit accumulation impacts the behavior of not only output but also other key macroeconomic variables such as investment, lending, interest rates, and inflation. The facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle.
- Topic:
- Economics, Business, Fiscal Policy, Private Sector, and Credit
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4691. Wealth Concentration, Income Distribution, and Alternatives for the USA
- Author:
- Lance Taylor, Özlem Ömer, and Armon Rezai
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- US household wealth concentration is not likely to decline in response to fiscal interventions alone. Creation of an independent public wealth fund could lead to greater equality. Similarly, once-off tax/transfer packages or wage increases will not reduce income inequality significantly; on-going wage increases in excess of productivity growth would be needed. These results come from the accounting in a simulation model based on national income and financial data. The theory behind the model borrows from ideas that originated in Cambridge UK (especially from Luigi Pasinetti and Richard Goodwin).
- Topic:
- Inequality, Income Inequality, Tax Systems, Redistribution, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4692. Wealth Concentration, Income Distribution, and Alternatives for the USA
- Author:
- Lance Taylor, Özlem Ömer, and Armon Rezai
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- US household wealth concentration is not likely to decline in response to fiscal interventions alone. Creation of an independent public wealth fund could lead to greater equality. Similarly, once-off tax/transfer packages or wage increases will not reduce income inequality significantly; on-going wage increases in excess of productivity growth would be needed. These results come from the accounting in a simulation model based on national income and financial data. The theory behind the model borrows from ideas that originated in Cambridge UK (especially from Luigi Pasinetti and Richard Goodwin).
- Topic:
- Inequality, Income Inequality, Tax Systems, Redistribution, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4693. Beyond Competitive Devaluations: The Monetary Dimensions of Comparative Advantage
- Author:
- Paul R. Bergin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Motivated by the long-standing debate on the pros and cons of competitive devaluation, we propose a new perspective on how monetary and exchange rate policies can contribute to a country’s international competitiveness. We refocus the analysis on the implications of monetary stabilization for a country’s comparative advantage. Motivated by the long-standing debate on the pros and cons of competitive devaluation, we propose a new perspective on how monetary and exchange rate policies can contribute to a country’s international competitiveness. We refocus the analysis on the implications of monetary stabilization for a country’s comparative advantage. We develop a two-country New-Keynesian model allowing for two tradable sectors in each country: while one sector is perfectly competitive, firms in the other sector produce differentiated goods under monopolistic competition subject to sunk entry costs and nominal rigidities, hence their performance is more sensitive to macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that, by stabilizing markups, monetary policy can foster the competitiveness of these firms, encouraging investment and entry in the differentiated goods sector, and ultimately affecting the composition of domestic output and exports. Panel regressions based on worldwide exports to the U.S. by sector lend empirical support to the theory. Constraining monetary policy with an exchange rate peg lowers a country’s share of differentiated goods in exports between 4 and 12 percent.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Monopoly, Strategic Competition, and Financial Stability
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4694. Two Paths to War: The Origins of the First World War versus the Dynamics of Contemporary Sino-American Confrontations
- Author:
- James Kurth
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- During the past year, there have been numerous and somber reflections, rather like those during a traditional period of mourning, about the great and tragic events that occurred just 100 years ago – the beginning of the First World War. And in the course of these melancholy reflections about the past, there naturally have arisen anxious concerns about the future. Is it possible that we may once again be entering into an era of great conflicts, or even of a great war, between the great powers of the time? Are there important and ominous similarities between the international situation before the First World War and the international situation of today?
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Politics, History, and Inequality
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
4695. Anarchic East Asia on an American Tether—and Cushion
- Author:
- Bruce Cumings
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- The usual explanation for the recent turmoil in East Asia goes under the rubric of “the rise of China.” For practitioners of the “realist” school, like John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago or the late Samuel Huntington of Harvard, all this is merely, and entirely, predictable: “rise” is what budding great powers do, just as in the fullness of time, a war with the leading great power is only to be expected (as both predicted in their most famous books—The Tragedy of Great Power Politics and The Clash of Civilizations). Realists of the containment school take this a bit further, to a strategy for America: contain rising China. This was certainly the policy of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, lining up publicly as she did with the Philippines and Japan against Chinese island encroachments—which may also turn out to be the policy of President Hillary Clinton in 2017. And this is unquestionably how nearly all experts in China see American policy: containment, encirclement, all in the interests of keeping rising China . . . down. Of course, President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry fall all over themselves to deny that containment is the policy—and under their (questionable and unsteady) leadership, perhaps it isn’t. Instead the overriding Obama strategy is benign neglect of the political and the military, thus to engage China in the overarching global commons, neo-liberalism, bringing it ever deeper into capitalist practice and the world economy thus to muffle if not contain its insurgent impulses. But then that has been American policy since Richard Nixon ended the Cold War between Washington and Beijing, supported all along by a quiet but very secure bipartisan coalition in Washington embracing Democrats and Republicans, and more broadly Wall Street and multinational corporate leaders. Everybody has been making money in China, even recently-bankrupt General Motors (China now has the largest auto market in the world, and Chinese like to buy GM’s Buicks even though hardly anyone else does, perhaps because forefather Sun Yat Sen drove a Buick). The watchword here is neo-liberal interdependence, but the practice is to let the colossal dailiness of Sino-American exchange fly under the radar, or remain sotto voce, unacknowledged, even secret—hoping no one pays too much attention.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Politics, History, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and United States of America
4696. Severing the Innovation-Inequality Link: Distribution Sensitive Science, Technology and Innovation Policies in Developed Nations
- Author:
- Amos Zehavi and Dan Breznitz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Innovation is essential to economic growth. However, it appears that the ways in which we pursue innovation policies have aggravated inequality. Inequality is an increasingly contentious political issue in both wealthy and emerging economies. Yet, it is becoming clear that use of traditional state instruments to alleviate inequality by redistributive means, is no longer sufficient. For those reasons, in this paper we consider other state instruments that are rarely associated with distributive goals. Specifically, we inquire whether we can successfully devise and employ Distributive-Sensitive Science and Technology and Innovation Policies focused on disadvantaged groups of users and consumers of technology. Following an exploratory theoretical approach, the paper first develop four types of such programs, and then utilize a comparative approach to analyze existing programs that fit into these categories, first, in Israel, and then, in the United State, Germany, and Sweden. We conclude by arguing that although these programs are currently driven primarily by economic efficiency concerns and not by distributive ones, they show the promise of our approach of utilizing innovation policy to reach social policy goals.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, Science and Technology, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Germany, Sweden, and United States of America
4697. The New York Times and American Tax Policy: Representing Citizens or Echoing Elites?
- Author:
- Daniel Chomsky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- A recent New York Times article observed that Americans want action to address inequality. 2016 presidential candidates from both parties also acknowledge that inequality is a pressing concern. But not one of the candidates has proposed to do anything meaningful about it, sharing wealthy Americans’ (understandable) opposition to any solution (Scheiber 2015). Perhaps nothing has been done because there is nothing to do about it. Some treat inequality as an inevitable or intractable feature of the global economy, or at least impossible to alter at acceptable cost (Cowen 2013). But inequality may be subject to political circumstances, and public policies including progressive taxes might reduce it without adversely affecting economic growth (Diamond and Saez 2011, Piketty 2014). It may be that Americans are just unwilling to support policies that would reduce inequality. Progressive taxation and other policies may reduce inequality. But policy reflects public preferences (Stimson, Mackuen, and Erikson 2002), and the American people just hate taxes. Martin Gilens (2012) effectively demonstrated that policy makers favor the wealthy over the majority when opinions diverge. Yet he accepted that the Bush tax cuts in the early 2000s reflected broad consensus opinion. Public opposition to taxes is seen as so powerful that even observers seeking programs to promote economic equality often abandon progressive taxes as a remedy (Kenworthy 2013).
- Topic:
- Race, Science and Technology, History, Culture, Ethics, Philosophy, Tax Systems, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4698. How Money Drives US Congressional Elections: More Evidence
- Author:
- Thomas Ferguson, Paul Jorgenson, and Jie Chen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- The protesters who swirled into parks, churches, and town squares around the world in the fall of 2011 to challenge the primacy of the “1%” hammered relentlessly on one theme above all others: that economic inequality has deep roots in the political system. Many social scientists and intellectuals who have picked up from where the Occupy movement left off share this conviction; they, too, have broken with the taboos that for so long segmented discussions of politics from economics. Piketty, in his monumental study, for example, avows that income distribution is a basically a question of “political economy” not pure economics. Stiglitz in The Price of Inequality is equally forthright – “increasingly, and especially in the United States, it seems that the political system is more akin to ‘one dollar one vote’ than to ‘one person one vote.’”
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Science and Technology, History, Elections, Inequality, and Money
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
4699. Fragile States Index 2015 – Annual Report
- Author:
- J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Kendall Lawrence, Felipe Umana, Sebastian Pavlou, and Hannah Blyth
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Fund for Peace
- Abstract:
- The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
- Topic:
- Reform, Ebola, Democracy, Fragile States, Domestic Politics, Sustainability, Health Crisis, Instability, and Uprising
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, Finland, Eastern Europe, Greece, Libya, Cuba, North Africa, Lebanon, West Africa, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and United States of America
4700. The Applicability of International and Domestic Immigration Law to Relocated Guantanamo Detainees
- Author:
- Sarah Weiner
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
- Abstract:
- The physical relocation of detainees from Guantanamo to the United States would not meaningfully alter U.S. obligations under domestic immigration law or international law concerning refoulement. Domestic immigration law would not affect U.S. authority to bring aliens into the United States and to detain those aliens under the laws of war. Detainees would not enter the United States as immigrants, but rather would remain legally “at the border” during their detention. If a detainee secures his release from law-of-war detention, then the United States would be prohibited from transferring the former detainee to a country where there are substantial grounds for believing that he would be in danger of being subjected to torture. This obligation applies equally to detainees held at Guantanamo and in the United States. If the United States could not find a suitable country to accept the former detainee, then the United States may have the authority to hold the alien indefinitely in immigration detention, provided that his custody meets statutory requirements. This authority is constitutionally untested and potentially inconsistent with obligations under international law, but these concerns would apply equally to both Guantanamo- and U.S.-located former detainees.
- Topic:
- International Law, Immigration, Law, Guantanamo Bay, and Detainees
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America