Political Geography: United States of America / Publication Year: within 10 Years

4401. The Pivot is Dead, Long Live the Pivot

Author:: Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: While it hasn’t always been pretty or (gasp) consistent, US Asia policy under the Trump administration is, with one major exception, pretty much where the Obama administration left it. America’s Asian alliances remain the foundation of its security strategy and “our one-China policy” has been reaffirmed. Even regarding North Korea, the objective – bringing Kim Jong Un “to his senses” – remains the same, although the approach seems to display less patience. The exception centers on the one promise that Trump (regrettably in our view) has kept: abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On economic policy more generally, the promised trade war with China has (thus far) failed to materialize since “the Chinese have made some improvements on currency in recent months”; okay, Chinese currency manipulation actually stopped several years ago, but you get the point. While the search for a new buzz word to replace the “pivot” or “rebalance” continues, the vice president and secretaries of State and Defense have been to the region and the White House has confirmed President Trump’s plan to attend a trio of regional summits this fall. Asia remains a high priority region, for better and for worse.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4402. Tokyo Transitions to Trump

Author:: Sheila A. Smith and Charles McClean
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The transition to the new Trump administration was far smoother for Japan than for other US allies. Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s visit to Trump Tower the week after the election in November undoubtedly helped smooth the way, and his visit in February proved to be a successful confirmation of Tokyo’s highest priorities for alliance cooperation. Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson both headed to Northeast Asia, reassuring Tokyo and Seoul of the administration’s commitment to its Asian allies. This early effort helped ensure continuity rather than disruption would be the theme for the US-Japan alliance for the next four years. North Korea, of course, helped that return to normalcy. Yet not all was settled in these early months. How the new administration was going to define its approach to trade remained ill-defined. The Japanese government, however, was not interested in a conversation that focused only on trade.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4403. Trump and Xi Break the Ice at Mar-a-Lago

Author:: Bonnie S. Glaser and Alexandra Viers
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The US-China relationship got off to an active, albeit fitful start after Donald Trump assumed the presidency on Jan. 20. Once Trump agreed to honor the US “one China” policy, Chinese officials engaged positively with their US counterparts, and planning began for the inaugural Trump-Xi meeting. China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, visited Washington at the end of February, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson traveled to Beijing in mid-March. The highlight of this period was the Trump-Xi summit, which took place at Mar-a-Lago on April 6-7. One of the major summit deliverables was the creation of a new high-level mechanism, the US-China Comprehensive Dialogue, which will be overseen by Trump and Xi. North Korea emerged as the pressing issue for the Trump administration as well as in the bilateral US-China relationship. Trump apparently made clear to Xi that if China is unwilling to cooperate, the US would seek to solve the North Korea threat unilaterally, including by pursuing penalties against Chinese banks and companies doing business with North Korea. After the summit, Trump called Xi twice to discuss North Korea and to urge him to put greater pressure on Pyongyang.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4404. Peninsula Tensions Spike

Author:: Stephen Noerper
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: North Korea tested President Trump’s new administration with a New Year promise of imminent ICBM capability and subsequent missile launches. Tensions rose to the highest level since 1993/1994 with missile launches, the assassination of Kim Jong Nam, and a possible ICBM on display at a military parade to celebrate the 85th anniversary of the DPRK’s Korean People’s Army. Washington offered Seoul assurances of support, sending Defense Secretary Mattis, Secretary of State Tillerson, and Vice President Pence in early 2017. Yet, Trump’s comments about sending an “armada” with the dispatch of the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group led South Koreans to fear blowback if the US conducted a preemptive or preventive strike against DPRK facilities. South Korea saw deployment of the first stages of THAAD, but the missile defense system and broader policy differences with May 9 ROK presidential victor Moon Jae-in will be challenges for US-South Korea relations.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Missile Defense, and Peace
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

4405. Mixed Messages

Author:: Sheldon Simon
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In its early months, the Trump administration has devoted little attention to Southeast Asia and US relations with the region have generally followed a trajectory set by the Obama administration. The US continued naval operations in the South China Sea and joint exercises with most ASEAN states with US air and naval forces rotating through bases in northern Australia and the Philippines and deploying from Singapore. There have been mixed signals between Manila and Washington. With the ASEAN states and China moving toward completion of a Code of Conduct (COC) on rules of engagement in the South China Sea, it is hoped that the new document would be “legally binding,” but little specific about its provisions has been published. Following Washington’s abrogation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Hanoi has sought to alleviate its disappointment, saying that it understands the US need to create more jobs and that it will try to accommodate Washington in future trade negotiations. During the Obama administration’s two terms (2009-2016), the president’s “rebalance” to Asia featured Southeast Asia as its centerpiece. President Obama made 11 separate trips to the Asia-Pacific, visiting a total of 14 countries, nine of which were members of ASEAN. His secretaries of state and defense also made multiple journeys to the region. Among many successes during these years were US accession to ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, participation in the East Asia Summit for the first time in 2011, the establishment of the first diplomatic mission to ASEAN, and realization of the historic transition to democracy in Myanmar. The United States also increased the deployment of ships and aircraft to the region, particularly in Singapore, the Philippines, and Australia. In Obama’s final year, the US began distributing resources under the Maritime Security Initiative to assist Southeast Asian countries with their maritime domain awareness by transferring patrol vessels and surveillance aircraft as well as creating a system whereby these countries could share information on the region’s maritime security picture. While it’s still early for the Trump administration, there have been virtually no policy statements dealing with Southeast Asia, nor at this time (April) has the State Department chosen a deputy secretary – the number two position – or a permanent assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Direction from Washington for a region that was so important during the preceding eight years seems to be absent.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Leadership, Conflict, and Transition
Political Geography:: Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea

4406. Adrift Without Dialogue

Author:: David G. Brown and Kevin Scott
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In February, President Trump told President Xi Jinping that the US would honor its one-China policy. This eased concern that the new administration would radically change US policy toward Taiwan, but it remains unclear how the Trump administration will deal with specific Taiwan issues. Relations between Beijing and Taipei have continued to be in an unstable but calm state in the early months of 2017. The formal channels of dialogue remain closed and no significant effort has been made to reopen them. In the meantime, practical issues have been dealt with, sometimes constructively but often in ways that exacerbate the lack of trust. This unstable and risky situation will likely continue in the months ahead.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4407. Trilateral Politics: Trump Style

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: US relations with Russia and China flip-flopped in the first few months of 2017 as newly-inaugurated President Donald Trump injected fresh dynamics into the Washington-Beijing-Moscow triangle. In just one strike (the missile attack on Syria) with nearly “perfect” timing in early April, the Washington “outsider” surprised the visiting Chinese president, minimized the “Russian factor” in US domestic politics, and assumed the moral high ground while sending a strong signal to a still defiant North Korea. While the long-term effect of Trump’s action has yet to be determined, it did set in motion diplomatic maneuvering and mind games between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, Washington, or more precisely Trump, was actively and dramatically pulling the strings of this “not-so-strategic triangle.” However, before anything substantial happened to the triangle, the Korean nuclear crisis deepened and broadened, and Pyongyang assumed the characteristics of China’s “rogue ally.” To defuse this time-bomb in Northeast Asia, the three geostrategic players may need to go beyond the traditional “great games” in the age of WMD.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4408. The Opioid Crisis in North America

Author:: Global Commission On Drug Policy
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Commission On Drug Policy
Abstract:: The opioid-driven public health crisis in North America has reached alarming proportions, contributing in 2016 to an estimated 64,000 deaths from drug overdoses in the US, and some 2,500 in Canada. The members of the Global Commission on Drug Policy, several of whom faced similar crises while occupying the highest levels of government in their own countries, share in this position paper their views and recommendations on how to mitigate this epidemic.
Topic:: Drugs, Public Health, Health Crisis, and Opioid Crisis
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

4409. ‘Mourning for America’: Donald Trump’s Climate Change Policy

Author:: Michael A Mehling and Antto Vihma
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Donald Trump projects slogans more than strategy, yet his administration has moved quickly and with vigour to dismantle existing climate policies in the United States. As this analysis underlines, a robust system of political checks and balances will constrain the domestic deregulatory agenda, although Trump’s actions may disturb the delicate balance of interests in international climate negotiations. A long view on the legal and political system of the United States – from the ideological foundations of American political reaction to the federal constitution and its Madisonian separation of powers – is necessary to understand whether the policy direction charted by the current administration can prevail. At first glance, the scale of regulatory roll-back appears unprecedented. Procedural and judicial limitations on federal powers that long predate awareness of climate change may nonetheless afford existing climate action surprising resilience against deconstruction. Still, the cumulative effects of deregulation, budget cuts, and personnel choices will eventually impact the scale and speed of US decarbonization. At the diplomatic level, severely diminished contributions to international climate finance will impact the political dynamic in international climate negotiations, while a disengaged US is likely to have an unsettling effect on the stocktaking and periodic review processes under the Paris Agreement. Some of these effects can be compensated by market forces and invigorated action by cities and states. Meanwhile, the underlying politics in the US remain as partisan as ever. Even if contemporary policy decisions prove to be temporary outliers, a sobering insight from this analysis is that science denialism and political opportunism will surface time and again in the US public debate on climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, United Nations, Governance, Multilateralism, Economic Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4410. Bringing Peace to Yemen by Having Women at the Table

Author:: Sanam Naraghi-Anderlini, Rasha Jarhum, Rana Allam, and Devin Cowick
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:: This brief examines existing efforts to enable the participation of civil society voices, notably women, in Yemen’s formal negotiations.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, North America, and United States of America

4411. Strategic Standoff: The U.S.-China Rivalry and Taiwan

Author:: Ian Easton
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: The CCP views Taiwan as a grave threat to its grip on power. Consequently, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which is the armed wing of the CCP, considers the invasion of Taiwan to be its most critical mission. Getting the strategic competition with China right will ultimately help America secure unprecedented levels of prosperity, freedom, and stability for all Pacific nations by the century’s midpoint.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4412. Reaching the Limits: China as a Responsible Stakeholder

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: Given the U.S.-China economic relationship and China’s importance in Asia, America’s temptation is to seek a comprehensive cooperative framework to perpetuate its leadership and “tame” a rising China in order to promote stability in the region. Increasing economic interdependence does create common interests, and structured dialogues can reduce misunderstanding. But as Asia’s preeminent power and civilization for all but 200 of the past 3,000 years, China is too big, proud, and independently minded for America to “tame” or “manage.” Washington cannot hope to decisively determine the endgame for an authoritarian China-in which the CCP, leading a country of 1.4 billion people, will choose to become a “responsible stakeholder” within a U.S.-led order.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, International Order, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4413. Challenges Facing Taiwan in the South China Sea

Author:: Ian Easton
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: In principle, Taiwan’s sovereignty claims and territorial holdings in the South China Sea should be viewed by the U.S. as an asset. However, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been able to exploit the fundamentally flawed bilateral relationship between Washington and Taipei to convince many observers that Taiwan has no positive role to play in the dispute. This paper will examine the many challenges facing Taiwan in the South China Sea. It will first lay out some of the reasons why the South China Sea matters to Taiwan’s interests. Next, it will assess the PRC threat to Taiwanese interests at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of analysis. Finally, the paper will conclude with an outline of areas where the U.S. and Taiwan could cooperate to impose costs on PRC expansionism and better ensure regional peace and stability.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Taiwan, Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea

4414. The United States and Future Policy Options in the Taiwan Strait

Author:: Mark Stokes
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: Taiwan is a core interest in U.S. foreign policy. Its values, technological prowess, and geostrategic position align with foundational American values and priorities for the region, making it a crucial U.S. partner in the Asia Pacific. As such, ensuring a stable and positive future for Taiwan as a democracy and a primary contributor to the global economy and international community is a high priority. This monograph concludes that a more objective representation of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait may better serve long-term U.S. interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Global Political Economy, and International Community
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4415. A Pivot to What? Asia-Pacific Foreign Policy under Trump

Author:: Marc Lanteigne
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Despite the difficulty in making predictions about an incoming American administration even before the inaugural process has been completed, the first two months since the US elections in November 2016 have already generated a great deal of debate and concern, about uncharted new directions in US foreign policy under president elect Donald Trump. Certainly the new president faces a host of international challenges,including Middle East security and chaotic relations with Russia, but arguably the most critical tests for the incoming government will be found in the Asia-Pacific region. As within other areas of foreign policy, Trump as a candidate oscillated,at times wildly, between interventionism and isolationism in his approach to Pacific Rim affairs, and as the year came to a close there was much watching and waiting in policy circles to see which of these would dominate. In addition, Trump assumes the presidency with the dubious distinction of possessing the lowest amount of foreign policy background in the history of American politics, so there is also the question of his administration’s ‘learning’ curve in crucial areas including the Asia-Pacific, with China relations at the forefront.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Military Intervention, Donald Trump, and Isolationism
Political Geography:: China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

4416. Executive Power and the Role of Congress in the Paris Climate and Iran Nuclear Agreements

Author:: Gwynne Taraska and Hardin Lang
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: In recent months, multilateral efforts have produced two historic agreements aimed at improving global security: the Iran nuclear agreement and the Paris climate agreement. The Iran nuclear agreement, which blocks Iran’s nuclear capacity in exchange for a gradual lifting of economic sanctions, was finalized in July and is expected to be implemented imminently. Before negotiations concluded, Congress passed the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015, which gave Congress a 60-day period in which it could seek to pass a joint resolution of disapproval. On September 10, all but four Democrats in the U.S. Senate voted to filibuster such a resolution. The agreement, which is nonbinding under international law, therefore proceeded without the need for a presidential veto. Concurrently, the country parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC, were negotiating an international agreement to rein in greenhouse gas emissions and improve resilience to the effects of climate change. The agreement, which has force under international law, was finalized in Paris on December 12. It obliges countries to submit and update national climate goals and participate in systems to review national and collective progress. In the run-up to the Paris agreement, Congress held several hearings, but there were no developments akin to the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act. As these two feats of international cooperation were under negotiation, Congress played an unusually involved role in the case of Iran but a more minimal role in the case of Paris. This brief discusses the status of both agreements and explains why the Iran and Paris agreements differ with respect to triggers of congressional intervention.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Multilateral Relations, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4417. Guantanamo’s Last Year

Author:: Ken Gude
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: With one year left in his administration, President Barack Obama remains committed to closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay during his time in office. Congress has prohibited, at least for now, one aspect of the president’s preferred pathway to close the prison—transferring some detainees into the United States for trial or continued law of war detention. Much of this debate has focused on the question of whether President Obama will use executive action to override the congressional transfer ban. Doing so would be impractical and extremely unwise. The Obama administration should state publicly that it will not use executive action to bring large numbers of Guantanamo detainees into the United States in defiance of congressional statute. A better strategy would be to pursue alternative options for closing Guantanamo that, even given current statutory constraints, remain entirely in the control of the executive branch. Amid disappointment at the failure to close Guantanamo, it is easy to forget that President Obama originally believed it was feasible to identify, categorize, prosecute, and transfer all 242 detainees in just one year—the same amount of time he has left for the remaining 91 detainees. While congressional resistance is a new obstacle not present at the time of President Obama’s original pledge, moving the majority of detainees out of Guantanamo is now mostly about the implementation of policies and decisions already made, a much more manageable challenge than the one that Obama faced in 2009. If that goal is to be achieved, however, President Obama must command a greater level of urgency throughout his administration and especially at the Pentagon. The risk is not simply a failure that becomes a stain on the president’s legacy; rather, the much more serious risk is that the next administration could resume sending detainees to Guantanamo, which is on the wish list of many conservatives. The latter would do irreparable harm to American national security—and be a colossal waste of money. Holding a detainee at Guantanamo now costs $4 million per year per detainee, compared with less than $100,000 per inmate in the highest security prison in the United States. And while it is fair to say that the salience of Guantanamo as a recruiting tool for terrorist groups has faded during the Obama administration’s efforts to close it, it is not gone. Hostages held by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, are not dressed in Guantanamo-like orange jumpsuits by accident. And if new detainees were to be sent to Guantanamo by the next administration, the prison would roar back to prominence in terrorist propaganda and be an enormous self-inflicted wound on the country. We cannot afford to risk this possibility. Guantanamo must be closed during the Obama administration. This can be achieved by completing the following steps: Hold Periodic Review Board hearings for all eligible detainees by July 1, 2016. Accelerate transfers of those detainees designated for transfer or release. Order the Department of Justice to review detainee cases for prosecution and potential plea bargain in federal court. Pursue agreements with countries to prosecute under their laws any Guantanamo detainees accused of serious crimes. Engage the Afghan government to seek an agreement to transfer back to Afghan custody any remaining law of war detainees captured in connection with the war in Afghanistan. Some of these options may not represent the best or preferred method for the Obama administration to close Guantanamo, but this is a feasible and realistic path to close the prison in one year. Some of these choices will be difficult, but when measured against the possibility that Guantanamo could be back in the business of accepting new detainees in 2017, those difficulties should not be disqualifying. A reinvigorated effort from the Obama administration is urgently needed to make 2016 Guantanamo’s last year.
Topic:: Terrorism, Prisons/Penal Systems, Counter-terrorism, and Detention
Political Geography:: Caribbean, North America, United States of America, and Guantanamo

4418. The United States and Colombia: From Security Partners to Global Partners in Peace

Author:: Dan Restrepo, Frank O. Mora, Brian Fonseca, and Jonathan D. Rosen
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos visits the United States this week, Colombia stands on the brink of a historic peace agreement that, if successfully reached and implemented, will bring an end to the longest-running internal armed conflict in the Western hemisphere. This reality is a far cry from where the country stood just 15 years ago, when it was on the edge of total state collapse. Although Colombia’s ability to overcome what many believed was a hopeless situation rests squarely upon the sacrifice of blood and treasure made by the Colombian people and its public forces, this promising new chapter in Colombia’s history also stems in part from the most successful, bipartisan U.S. foreign policy effort undertaken to date in the 21st century—Plan Colombia. As the United States encounters growing instability in other regions of the world, it is instructive to look back at the U.S. role in fostering the most successful counterinsurgency effort in recent history to understand what worked and what remains unfinished. President Santos’ visit also provides an important opportunity to look forward to how the United States and Colombia can solidify Colombia’s remarkable gains while becoming true strategic partners.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, North America, and United States of America

4419. Setting Priorities for Nuclear Modernization

Author:: Lawrence Korb and Adam Mount
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: n the next decade, the United States will have to make decisions that will shape its nuclear arsenal for much of the next century. Nearly every missile, submarine, aircraft, and warhead in the U.S. arsenal is nearing the end of its service life and must be replaced. As Congress and the Obama administration continue to wrestle with the effects of sequestration on projected levels of defense spending, the U.S. Department of Defense has begun a series of procurement programs that will nearly double the amount the country spends on its nuclear deterrent in the next decade compared to what it spent in the past decade. Over the next 30 years, the cost of the nuclear deterrent could pass $1 trillion and crowd out defense and domestic investments needed to keep the United States strong and competitive. In addition, it could undermine U.S. credibility on the issue of nuclear proliferation—especially when it comes to dealing with regimes such as Russia, China, and North Korea.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

4420. 4 Ways Obama and Trudeau Can Partner to Curb Climate Change

Author:: Cathleen Kelly
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau travels to the United States for his first state visit, he and President Barack Obama should seize the opportunity to launch a new era of U.S.-Canadian cooperation to curb climate change, accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, and safeguard the Arctic. The United States and Canada share far more than borders; the two countries are close allies on key issues, including counterterrorism, the environment, the Arctic, law enforcement, and maritime safety. The two nations also trade more than $2 billion in goods and services daily. Obama and Trudeau’s March meeting will do more than bolster the U.S.-Canadian bond—it will also set the stage for their trilateral meeting with President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico at the North American Leaders’ Summit this spring and could help to catalyze more ambitious climate action globally. The energy ministers from the United States, Canada, and Mexico took steps toward accelerating North American efforts to curb climate change when they jointly signed a Memorandum of Understanding, or MOU, in February to expand climate change and clean energy collaboration. Time is running out for President Obama to secure new climate policy breakthroughs and a lasting climate change legacy by the end of his tenure, and this is cause enough for the two like-minded leaders to cement strong bilateral agreements. There are other reasons besides this ticking clock, however, that make Prime Minister Trudeau’s visit an ideal time to advance pro-environment policies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

4421. Partnered But Poor

Author:: Shawn Fremstad
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: People living in single-parent families are much more likely to have low incomes and experience economic hardships than those living in both married and unmarried partnered families with children. At the same time, however, the vast majority of people in low-income families with children are in families headed by married or unmarried partners, as are most people in families with children that receive means-tested benefits. This fact flies in the face of claims that marriage is a panacea for poverty. This issue brief provides basic facts about differences in low-income rates for three family types—married-couple, cohabiting-couple, and single-parent families with children—and looks at, by family type, the share of low-income people in families with children and the share of people in families with children that receive major means-tested benefits. The hope is that facts such as these will generate a more balanced debate, one that acknowledges and addresses differences in economic hardship by family structure without minimizing the extent of married and partnered poverty in the United States.
Topic:: Poverty, Income Inequality, Family, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4422. Supporting Global Food Security in a Changing Climate Through Transatlantic Cooperation

Author:: Michael Werz
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Policy communities in the United States and Europe are increasingly identifying climate change, environmental deterioration, water management, and food security as key concerns for development and global governance. The interplay of these trends is visible in the upheavals across the Middle East, with food riots and water disputes illuminating the region’s food insecurity. In the five years before the uprising in Syria, for example, the country experienced one of the worst droughts on record, which decimated wheat production and wiped out livestock. In Yemen, tensions—and outright conflicts—over water rights and illegal wells underpin the ongoing insecurity and anti-government sentiment. There is little question that the effects of climate change will cause more extreme weather events and crop insecurity in the decades to come, and it is reasonable to expect that they will magnify such dangerous problems. A few years ago, the complex interplay of several factors—including droughts in major grain- and cereal-producing regions, increases in biofuel production that reduced grain supplies, and other long-term structural problems—triggered the 2007-2008 world food crisis. The disruptions that this crisis caused affected both developed and developing countries, creating political and economic instability around the world and contributing to social unrest. The crisis highlighted the critical importance of better understanding the interdependencies and cascading effects of decisions made throughout the global food system, as well as how climate change could exacerbate such challenges. The increasing urgency of food and climate security requires greater international cooperation and, more specifically, innovative and forward looking transatlantic policy responses to address these pressing issues. Over the past decade, the links between climate change, food security, and political instability have steadily risen on the global policy agenda, and both adelphi and the Center for American Progress have played a role in bringing attention to their importance. CAP has conducted significant research and analysis on the security effects of climate change, including its effect on human mobility, and has elevated these issues in Washington, D.C. For its part, adelphi has a long track record of raising climate security issues in Europe and in 2015 led an international consortium that prepared a report and knowledge platform for the Group of Seven, or G-7, nations on climate change’s effect on state fragility.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Food Security, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, Atlantic Ocean, and United States of America

4423. A Medium- and Long-Term Plan to Address the Central American Refugee Situation

Author:: Dan Restrepo and Silva Mathema
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: It is impossible to understand the flow of refugees emanating from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador—collectively, known as the Northern Triangle of Central America—without understanding the security and economic conditions in each of the three countries. Despite important differences, the three Northern Triangle countries are among the poorest in the Americas and the most violent in the world. Based on statistics from the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, or UNODC, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador were three of the five most dangerous countries in the world in 2013—the last year for which U.N. statistics are available. That year, Honduras had the world’s highest per capita homicide rate, at 90.4 homicides per 100,000 people; El Salvador ranked fourth, with a rate of 41.2 homicides per 100,000 people; and Guatemala was fifth, with a rate of 39.9 homicides per 100,000 people. Since then, the situation in El Salvador has dramatically worsened following the 2014 breakdown of a 2012 truce between two of its largest and most powerful street gangs: MS-13 and Barrio 18. In 2015, El Salvador became the most dangerous country in the Western Hemisphere, with a homicide rate of 108.5 per 100,000. This made it 24 times more dangerous than the United States, which had a homicide rate of 4.5 per 100,000 in 2014. The violence in some of these countries’ cities is even worse. For example, San Salvador, the capital city of El Salvador, averaged one murder every hour in August 2015—the highest number of murders since the end of the country’s horrific civil war in 1992.5 The 2015 homicide rates in both Honduras and Guatemala improved to 62.5 and 29.2 homicides per 100,000 people, respectively.
Topic:: Migration, Border Control, Refugee Crisis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, Honduras, El Salvador, and United States of America

4424. A Short-Term Plan to Address the Central American Refugee Situation

Author:: Philip E. Wolgin
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Over the past half-decade, rising violence and structural poverty in the Northern Triangle region of Central America—which encompasses El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala—have pushed thousands of children and families to flee for safety. These three countries are some of the most dangerous on the planet, with high rates of homicide and specifically femicide—the killing of women and girls. Violence, corruption, and extortion play a big part in everyday life. Since 2014, more than 120,000 children and another 120,000 people in family units from this region have arrived in the United States seeking protection. The flow of these asylum seekers peaked in fiscal year 2014 before dipping, perhaps temporarily, in FY 2015. This drop occurred not because conditions improved in the region but because of a sustained effort by the U.S. government—with the help of Mexico and the Northern Triangle countries—to stop people from making the dangerous journey or to intercept them on the way to the United States. This year, in FY 2016, the numbers of children and families arriving in the United States have begun to rise again as conditions in the region continue to deteriorate. This report lays out short-term recommendations for ensuring that all asylum seekers who reach the United States receive a full and fair shot at protection. The recommendations are structured to follow the process that children and families go through when seeking protection: arrival in the United States, custody determinations and detention, and proceedings in the immigration courts.
Topic:: Migration, Border Control, Refugee Crisis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, and United States of America

4425. Updating U.S.-Saudi Ties to Reflect the New Realities of Today’s Middle East

Author:: Brian Katulis, Rudy deLeon, Peter Juul, Mokhtar Awad, and John Craig
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: When President Barack Obama arrived in Saudi Arabia last week to participate in the U.S. summit with the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, he landed in the midst of regional turbulence and major economic and foreign policy changes by the Kingdom. Today, the Middle East remains caught up in a period of fragmentation and competition for influence among the leading powers in the region. In the aftermath of last year’s nuclear deal between Iran and other global powers, President Obama has yet to achieve the new equilibrium in the Middle East that he envisioned. His recent suggestion that GCC countries “share” the region with Iran received a cool reception in Saudi Arabia and other parts of the GCC. Saudi Arabia—along with other GCC countries—remains deeply concerned about Iran’s subversive activities in the region, including its support for terrorist groups and ongoing conventional military efforts, such as its ballistic missile program. This current period of insecurity following the Iran nuclear deal is the latest episode in a U.S.-Saudi relationship roiled by tension for more than a decade. Since 2000, the decades-long foundation of close relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia—namely, regional stability, energy security, and military cooperation—has come under considerable stress. The 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and the 2003 Iraq war ushered in a rocky phase in bilateral U.S.-Saudi relations. These two incidents—along with the end of the U.S. policy of dual containment of Iran and Iraq—led to a decline in mutual trust between the United States and Saudi Arabia that’s now reaching critical mass.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

4426. Refugee Integration in the United States

Author:: David Dyssegaard and Silva Mathema
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Refugees are admitted to the United States for humanitarian reasons: They face well-founded fear of persecution in their home countries and seek a safe haven here. But they also contribute to the American economy, bringing vitality to areas with declining populations, contributing to the growth of areas whose populations are already increasing, and expanding the labor force as they seek and find work to make better lives for themselves and their children. Around 3 million refugees have been admitted to the United States. This report focuses on four groups—Somali, Burmese,* Hmong, and Bosnian refugees—that are identifiable in U.S. Bureau of the Census data and that together constitute about 500,000 U.S. residents. Refugees come from a wide range of backgrounds and regions, so no single group can be considered typical. The groups examined here, however, show that there are some broad trends among them, as well as some distinctions. Other studies have illustrated that refugees quickly become self-sufficient in the United States, a central goal of federal resettlement policy. What this report examines is how these groups fare in the long run, finding that over time, refugees integrate well into their new communities. After being in the United States for 10 years, refugees are in many regards similar to their U.S.-born neighbors, with similar rates of labor force participation and business ownership. The large majority have learned to speak English after being in the country for 10 years and have become naturalized U.S. citizens after being in the country for 20 years. The following are among the report’s major findings, which are based on an analysis of 2014 American Community Survey, or ACS, 5-year data for Somali, Burmese, Hmong, and Bosnian refugees:
Topic:: Refugee Crisis, Assimilation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4427. The U.S. Presidential Election: The View from China

Author:: Zhang Fan
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: American presidential elections have an impact that goes far beyond U.S. national borders. People around the world follow the campaign for the U.S. presidency with great interest, and many feel that they have a stake in the outcome. People in China pay particularly close attention because China, almost more than any other nation, regularly becomes a key topic in U.S. presidential debates. During this particular campaign season, candidates of both major political parties have frequently mentioned China. However, what’s more noteworthy in this election cycle is that the Chinese populous is not focusing solely on how their homeland is bandied about by the candidates, but even more so on the entire American electoral process as a whole. Certainly, some Chinese are tuning in primarily for entertainment value; but many others are trying to figure out exactly what this election will mean not only for the United States but for the entire world—including China. Regardless of what motivates individual Chinese election-watchers, the 2016 U.S. presidential election is popular in China. Zhang Fan, a Visiting Fellow on a Ford Foundation Global Travel and Learning Fund Program exchange, has spent the past five months at the Center for American Progress, studying the U.S. presidential election and Chinese reactions to it. She recently shared her views during a question-and-answer session with Blaine Johnson, China and Asia Policy Research Associate at the Center.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, and Election Observation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4428. After Liberation

Author:: Hardin Lang and Muath Al Wari
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Two years on, the U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State, or IS,* has achieved some important gains. This is particularly true in Iraq, where the liberation of Fallujah last month has focused attention on Mosul—the capital of the so-called caliphate. But military victory is only half the battle. As the Islamic State is pushed out of Iraqi cities and towns, the communities it ruled must be integrated back into Iraq. Nature abhors a vacuum; the U.S.-led Global Coalition to Counter ISIL should do more to support the Iraqi government in filling that vacuum. For its part, the Iraqi government itself must display a greater commitment to inclusive governance that reinforces its own legitimacy. Failure to do so would risk squandering hard-won gains by setting the stage for the Islamic State—or its successor—to return. It also could undercut U.S. strategic goals in the Middle East more broadly. The key will be to close the gaps in resources and priority afforded to the different elements of the global coalition’s campaign. That campaign is organized along five lines of effort: military efforts, counter-finance, stopping the flow of foreign fighters, stabilization, and strategic messaging. The military line, otherwise known as Operation Inherent Resolve, has cut the territory controlled by the Islamic State almost in half. Other key coalition lines have yielded less robust results. In particular, efforts to stabilize territory in the wake of combat operations have not kept pace with progress on the battlefield—even as that progress makes stabilization all the more urgent.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Islamic State, Political stability, and State Building
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4429. After Liberation

Author:: Hardin Lang and Muath Al Wari
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Two years on, the U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State, or IS,* has achieved some important gains. This is particularly true in Iraq, where the liberation of Fallujah last month has focused attention on Mosul—the capital of the so-called caliphate. But military victory is only half the battle. As the Islamic State is pushed out of Iraqi cities and towns, the communities it ruled must be integrated back into Iraq. Nature abhors a vacuum; the U.S.-led Global Coalition to Counter ISIL should do more to support the Iraqi government in filling that vacuum. For its part, the Iraqi government itself must display a greater commitment to inclusive governance that reinforces its own legitimacy. Failure to do so would risk squandering hard-won gains by setting the stage for the Islamic State—or its successor—to return. It also could undercut U.S. strategic goals in the Middle East more broadly. The key will be to close the gaps in resources and priority afforded to the different elements of the global coalition’s campaign. That campaign is organized along five lines of effort: military efforts, counter-finance, stopping the flow of foreign fighters, stabilization, and strategic messaging. The military line, otherwise known as Operation Inherent Resolve, has cut the territory controlled by the Islamic State almost in half. Other key coalition lines have yielded less robust results. In particular, efforts to stabilize territory in the wake of combat operations have not kept pace with progress on the battlefield—even as that progress makes stabilization all the more urgent.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Islamic State, Political stability, and State Building
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4430. Charting a New Course for the U.S.-China Relationship

Author:: Melanie Hart
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The relationship between the United States and China is at a critical juncture. On the Chinese side, Beijing is shifting toward a more proactive foreign policy stance that aims to expand China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region and around the world. This proactive approach is opening up new opportunities for U.S.-China cooperation in some areas but creating new tension in others. On the U.S. side, Washington is trying to figure out how to deal with a new, more confident and engaged China at a time when U.S. leaders are also realizing that some of the assumptions that guided U.S. policy toward China for decades may no longer apply. It is increasingly unclear whether past U.S.-China interactions can be used as a blueprint for the future, and that is creating a new nervousness. At a time of rising uncertainty, one resource both nations can draw on is a strong cohort of U.S. and Chinese foreign policy experts who have dedicated their careers to understanding and guiding this critical bilateral relationship. Exchanges at the mid-career level are becoming particularly interesting. Today’s mid-career U.S.-China experts have had more opportunities to travel between the United States and China to live, work, and study than any generation before them. Many of these experts are bilingual: The Americans speak Mandarin, the Chinese speak English, and they can communicate in a mix of the two languages to get their points across as clearly as possible. Because they began their careers in an era of unprecedented openness on both sides, many have known one another for years and can debate sensitive issues with a frankness that can be harder to achieve at senior leadership levels.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4431. The Incoming Trump Administration

Author:: Eric Lerhe
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:: The election of President Trump provoked considerable disarray. His pre-election warning that states not meeting NATO defence spending targets might be denied US protection has resulted in a member of the Bundestag’s Committee of Foreign Affairs arguing for a non-US nuclear deterrent. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister warned of a Russian provocation against the Baltic states timed to occur prior to the President-elect taking office. Trump's parallel calls for greater Korean and Japanese military contributions, including his readiness to accept their nuclear self-arming, had the Tokyobased Diplomat predicting region-wide mayhem ranging from the greater potential for climatebased conflict to the increased probability of China opening hostilities with Taiwan. That at least one election declaration – a commitment to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership – may have stemmed from an astonishing lack of understanding was also of concern: in debate with US Senator Paul Ryan, the President-elect seemed to be criticizing the TPP in part because he thought China was included. Closer to home, Trump’s threat to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement provoked calls within Canada to counter this by increasing its own defence spending to the 2% of GDP NATO target and scrapping supply management.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

4432. Judgement Day for ISIL and What It Would Mean for Canada

Author:: Dave Murray
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:: Despite the carnage wrought by ISIL around the world, the days appear numbered for its caliphate in Syria and Iraq. We are likely talking the shorter to medium term at most. ISIL faces intense military pressure on all fronts. It continues to lose territory and its leadership figures are being targeted and killed. Increasingly ISIL faces significant challenges in replenishing its losses due to efforts by Turkey and most nations internationally to block the flow of foreign fighters into the caliphate. As leadership figures are eliminated, internal factionalism will create serious stresses and vulnerabilities. The forces aligned against ISIL are powerful, despite conflicting agendas. Add to this reports of financial problems, including a strained ability to pay its militants, and the result is a picture of an entity on a downward trajectory. This in no way means that the caliphate or its extremist message will die easily or that we are nearing an end to the scourge of ISIL inspired terrorism – only that its ability to sustain itself territorially has limits. If one accepts the above assessment, now is the time to consider what this will mean. Now is the time for thinking and planning directed at dealing with the eventual collapse of a self-proclaimed state in which countless thousands have been radicalized, traumatized, received military and terrorists training, let alone the reality of child soldiers and intense psychological scarring caused by ISIL.
Topic:: Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamic State, Conflict, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Canada, Syria, and United States of America

4433. The U.S. Defense, between the Revolution and the Offset / La Defensa estadounidense, entre la revolución y la compensación

Author:: Guillem Colom
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The article reviews the U.S. contemporary Defense planning to establish the continuity patterns that exist between the Revolution in Military Affairs developed in the 1970s under the Second Offset Strategy, matured in the 1990s and succeeded during the War on Terror; and the Third Offset Strategy that will guide its Defense planning until 2030 and capable of inspiring a new revolution.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, History, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4434. Shackled Liberties, or: How Security Came to Trump Everything Else

Author:: Jan-Peter Hartung
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Review of Human Rights
Institution:: Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:: In this paper, the origins of the “security narrative” in contemporary German political discourse is traced back to the early modern conception of “natural law,” first emphasized by Thomas Hobbes. Underlying this conception is that individuals would – by acknowledgment of their inborn “natural law” – sacrifice their individual liberties for the sake of public security. It is shown that a conception of state based on such a metaphysical premise discounts the existence of any discontent as valid within a society, and allows for top-down coercive measures against anyone who does not buy into this narrative. Those measures, exemplified by political rhetoric in Germany and beyond in the wake of recent mass migration and “terrorist threat,” do quite often impair with even fundamental human rights and appear at odds with the simultaneous claim to represent a liberaldemocratic constitution.
Topic:: Security, Donald Trump, and Civil Liberties
Political Geography:: Germany and United States of America

4435. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: International Relations Perspectives

Author:: Robert Nalbandov, M.J. Fox, Jacob Stoil, Jonathan Schroden, William Rosenau, Emily Warner, and Rebecca Yagerman
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: During the planning for this and upcoming issues, the staff of the MCU Journal, under the direction of the new editorial board, continues fine tuning our publication strategies to acquire content that speaks to the larger issues of policy important to the Marine Corps, generally and specifically. This has led us to seek authors who can provide more than just single threads of continuity, but rather to help us craft entire issues that focus on defined topics for deeper-level conversations. To that end, the closing issue of 2016 presents what, on the surface, may appear to be five articles speaking broadly to the concerns of one region, in this case the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Upon further reading, however, the reader will discover that this issue features two distinct sections that illustrate both political science and historical perspectives relevant to the U.S. military Services and the larger Department of Defense community.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Politics, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, North America, Tunisia, Somalia, and United States of America

4436. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Spring 2016

Author:: Colonel Glenn J. Voelz, Sarah Soliman, Mary Ellen Connell, Ryan Evans, David L.O. Hawyard, and John Baden
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: After five years of publishing the Marine Corps University Journal, MCU Press looks forward to an exciting future by redesigning and reformatting the journal to emphasize its role in supporting the national conversation. The new MCU Journal will focus on publishing established authors along with young, emerging scholars, combining the strengths of both on themes of international relations, national security, political science, and other disciplines. By engaging authors in a variety of fields, we can cross disciplines to bring new knowledge, constructs, and solutions to our readers. Moreover, by bridging the civilian and military divide, our audience can read about different perspectives on policy and contemporary issues. For the spring 2016 issue, we have done just that with articles on domestic and international topics as well as book reviews, all of which represent the ideas being broached by academic scholars, think tank analysts, and military leaders. Headlines so far for 2016 have highlighted the fact that the United States seems to be lagging on the cyberfront. Journalists, in such stories as “Federal Government Confirms That It Still Sucks at Cyber Security” and “New Military Outfit to Enhance China’s Cyber Security, Espionage Prowess,” point to a higher level of advances being made overseas as our own government struggles to safeguard what should be secure networks and the identities of millions. These recent issues might make the casual reader wonder how our military intends to counter cyberattacks from foreign soils when the government cannot seem to manage at home.
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Hegemony, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Cybersecurity, Refugees, Drones, History, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, Crimea, and United States of America

4437. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Climate Change & Policy

Author:: Edward J. Erickson, J. Brooks Flippen, Michael Reis, Rebecca Pincus, Ralph H. Espach, David Zvijac, Ronald Filadelfo, Catherine M. Schkoda, Shawna G. Cuan, and E. D. McGrady
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: MCU Press (MCUP) proudly offers readers this special issue of MCU Journal (MCUJ) that focuses on the past, present, and future impact of climate change and policy. While it is not our intent to take a political or philosophical stance on the issue, we do intend to use this medium to inspire discussion on how U.S. agencies and Service branches address the subject based on operational demands, political pressure, and public opinion. Readers might wonder how this global topic impacts the U.S. Marine Corps; however, the two are not such disparate concepts, particularly when we consider the connection between climate change impacts and humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations the Corps has supported as early as 1895. This special issue of the journal also represents the strategic direction of the new editorial board and MCUP staff who intend to address topics of value to the Marine Corps, Marine Corps University, and the larger Department of Defense community. Our priority, in addition to timely and relevant content, is to engage civilian scholars and analysts, such as J. Brooks Flippen at Southeastern Oklahoma State University; Michael Reis at History Associates Inc.; our partners at CNA, Ralph Espach, David Zvijac, Ronaldo Filadelfo, Catherine Schkoda, Shawna Cuan, and E. D. McGrady; and professional military education instructors, such as Edward Erickson at MCU and Rebecca Pincus at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy. Future issues of MCUJ also will include articles written by military personnel who understand the value of their perspectives and the importance of that knowledge not being lost once a deployment or active duty ends. MCUJ offers readers truly engaged authors from a myriad of backgrounds, with a variety of professional experience, and whose perceptions are important in the policy world.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Government, Migration, National Security, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, European Union, and History
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia-Pacific, Global Focus, and United States of America

4438. Can you tackle poverty without taking on place?

Author:: Solomon Greene
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: Earlier this month, House Republicans released a new plan to fight poverty and help Americans move up the economic ladder. The plan begins and ends with the premise that “The American Dream is the idea that, no matter who you are or where you come from, if you work hard and give it your all, you will succeed.” In between, however, there is scant mention of the role that place (i.e., where you come from) plays in perpetuating poverty or shaping economic opportunity. This is a glaring omission, especially in light of the plan’s insistence on grounding poverty-reduction policies in the best available evidence. The evidence shows that geography plays a powerful role in determining life outcomes in the United States. Better understanding the mechanisms by which zip codes determine destiny and identifying effective strategies to sever the connection between poverty and place should be central to any federal antipoverty plan.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4439. Putting politics into international development? It’s about time

Author:: Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: It may be difficult in the current political season to welcome news that international development agencies are paying more attention to the politics of reform when designing their assistance programs to poor countries. But we should be relieved that agencies like the World Bank, the UK’s Department for International Development, and our own US Agency for International Development are doing just that. For too long, aid programs operated with the convenient fiction that assistance work was purely technical. The premise of many programs was “simply transfer missing knowledge, skills, or cash to people in the foreign government or local organizations, and they could adopt policies and programs to promote growth and reduce poverty."
Topic:: Poverty, Foreign Aid, International Development, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

4440. Calling a Spade a Spade: Canada's Use of Sanctions

Author:: Andrea Charron and Paul Aseltine
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Canada’s use of sanctions is little studied which means the full scope and effect of this tool are not appreciated. Until 2006, Canada applied sanctions in support of the United Nations almost exclusively. Since then, Canada has also applied discretionary sanctions in support of allies such as the European Union and United States’ measures in addition to those required by the UN Security Council. Lacking extraterritorial reach and with this new tendency to layer sanctions (applying UN and additional measures) requires the navigation of multiple pieces of Canadian legislation. Banks and private companies, which are largely responsible for giving effect to Canada’s sanctions, must navigate this legislation. This has ensnared a few Canadians in the process with little evidence that Canada’s application of sanctions is compelling its targets (people, companies, and states) to change their behaviour. Canada’s application of sanctions is a signal of its desire to support multilateral, collective security efforts – nothing more or less.
Topic:: United Nations, Sanctions, European Union, and Banks
Political Geography:: Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

4441. South China Sea and the New Great Game

Author:: Marius Grinius
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Arguably, the South China Sea drama is an important piece in the new “Great Game” that is being played out between the world’s current superpower (US), perceived by some to be in decline, and the new challenger (China) that wants to take its rightful place as an equal and perhaps even more. The US is faced with the strategic challenge of how to manage China’s global ascendancy peacefully. China’s unilateral actions in the South China Sea, which include claims of sovereignty of the islands reaching back to ancient times, the construction of artificial islands in the Spratlys and Paracels, airfield extensions, and deployments of surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles, do not bode well for any future peaceful settlement of South China Sea disputes in which Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines are also claimants. While the US has not taken sides in these territorial disputes, its strenuous insistence on its right of freedom of navigation through disputed waters has brought the US into confrontation with China, at a time when the latter is modernizing and restructuring its military forces. Ironically, all sides claim that their actions are aimed at maintaining peace and stability in the region. Some observers fear, however, that the situation will ultimately lead to a military clash between China and the US. It is in Canada’s highest interest to ensure that the South China Sea indeed remains a zone of peace, stability, prosperity and open international passage. Canada can contribute to these goals by showing the flag through participation in various multinational maritime exercises in the region in support of UNCLOS, by demonstrating through diplomatic means that it is closely following the situation and actually has a national position on the issue, and by contributing to its resolution through renewed involvement in Track Two dialogue by Canadian Law of the Sea experts. In the bigger context of the new Great Game, however, the question remains whether China, for all its growing economic and military clout, can act as a responsible global leader that supports and defends the rule of international law.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Maritime, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea

4442. Getting tough with the dragon? The comparative correlates of foreign policy attitudes toward China in the United States and UK

Author:: Thomas J. Scotto and Jason Reifler
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:: Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:: A large body of research suggests mass publics are capable of thinking coherently about international relations. We extend this body of research to show that domain relevant postures – in our case, more abstract beliefs about foreign policy – are related to how tough of a line representative samples of US and UK respondents want their governments to take toward China. More specifically, we utilize a unique comparative survey of American and British foreign policy attitudes to show broad support for toughness toward China. Beliefs about the use of the military and attitudes regarding globalization help explain preferences for tough economic and military policies toward China. In the two countries, the relationship between general foreign policy outlooks and the positions citizens take is robust to the addition of a general mediator that controls for the general affect those surveyed have toward China. Finally, the strength of the relationship between these abstract postures and specific preferences for a China policy are different across the countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Political Science, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4443. A Sharper Choice on North Korea: Engaging China for a Stable Northeast Asia

Author:: Mike Mullen, Sam Nunn, and Adam Mount
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: A new Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Independent Task Force report, A Sharper Choice on North Korea: Engaging China for a Stable Northeast Asia, finds that the United States’ policy of “strategic patience” with North Korea will neither halt that country’s recurring and dangerous cycle of provocation nor ensure the stability of Northeast Asia in the future. To the contrary, the Task Force warns, “If allowed to continue, current trends will predictably, progressively, and gravely threaten U.S. national security interests and those of its allies.” Asserting that “China’s policy toward the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] will critically affect the fate of the region,” the Task Force urges U.S. officials to encourage China to work with the United States, Japan and South Korea to establish a nonnuclear and unified Korean Peninsula. “Encouraging a transformation of China’s policy toward North Korea should be the next administration’s top priority in its relations with China,” says the report. “If China, the United States, and U.S. allies can work together to pressure North Korea to abandon its nuclear program and mitigate its threatening military posture,” the Task Force contends, “a stable, prosperous Northeast Asia led by China and U.S. allies can emerge.” To the extent that China declines to cooperate and North Korea continues to refuse to negotiate, however, the report finds that United States will have no choice but to work with Japan and Korea to “consider more assertive military and political actions, including those that directly threaten the existence of the [North Korean] regime and its nuclear and missile capabilities.” The Task Force proposes that the United States take steps to sharpen the consequences for North Korea, by imposing escalating costs on continued defiance and offering incentives for cooperation.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

4444. The U.S Elections and the Future of Middle East: Ms. Rebecca Bornstein, Researcher at the Mitvim Institute

Author:: Rebecca Bornstein
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:: The U.S Elections and the Future of Middle East
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

4445. The U.S Elections and the Future of Middle East: Mr. Dan Rothem, Senior Research Consultant, The S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace

Author:: Dan Rothem
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:: The U.S Elections and the Future of Middle East
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

4446. Compulsory Schooling and the Returns to Education: A Re-examination

Author:: Sophie van Huellen and Duo Qin
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: We re-examine the effect of compulsory school law on education in the US pioneered by Angrist and Krueger (1991). We show that the standard instrumental variable approach of the education variable not only yields empirically inconsistent estimates, but is conceptually confused. The confusion arises from the rejection of the key causal variable as a valid conditional variable. By route of a causally explicit model design we are able to identify the circumstances under which the formerly rejected variable can yield valid inference values. Our investigation demonstrates the importance of building data-consistent models over estimator choice in successful research designs.
Topic:: Education, Governance, Economic Theory, and Models
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4447. Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-Based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA

Author:: Duo Qin
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This investigation seeks to construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) by the partial least squares (PLS) method with the aims (i) that the FCIs should outperform interest rate, which is conventionally used in small VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) models to present the predictive macro-impacts of the financial markets, and (ii) that the FCIs are adequately invariant during regular updates to resemble non-model based aggregate indices. Both aims are shown to be attainable as long as the FCIs are tailor-made with carefully selected components and suitably targeted macro variables of forecasting interest. The positive outcome sheds light on why the widely used principal component analysis (PCA) approach is ill-suited to the tasks here whereas why the PLS route promises a fruitful way forward.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Finance, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4448. Taiwan and US-China Relations in a Trump Administration

Author:: Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Andrew J. Nathan, the Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science at Columbia University, discusses Donald Trump's conversation with Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen and what it may mean for U.S.-China relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Political Science, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4449. The Global Politics of Gay Rights: The Straining Relations between the West and Africa

Author:: Hakeem Onapajo
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This article analyses the contemporary global politics of gay rights as it relates to the straining relations between the Western powers and many African states that oppose sexual minorities’ rights. While the West (with emphasis on the United States, EU, and Britain) advocates for the protection of gay rights in the world, Africa provides the largest concentration of states opposed to them. Therefore, there has been rising tension between both regions. This became more apparent after Nigeria and Uganda, respectively, signed their anti-gay bills into law in January and February 2014. In response to this, the Western powers decided to take some punitive measures, especially imposition of sanctions, against the countries to pressurise them to repeal their laws. In an unusual manner, the African states are radically determined to go ahead with their anti-gay laws in open defiance to the demands of the Western powers. This development, which is informed by a number of factors, shows a rather new pattern of behaviour by African states in global politics.
Topic:: Minorities, LGBT+, Sexuality, and Gay Rights
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, North America, and United States of America

4450. An Appraisal of Pakistan’s Nuclear Policy during War on Terror

Author:: Muhammad Ilyas Ansari and Iram Khalid
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This paper seeks to analyze that why some nations to nuclear in the international structure for the sake of national security when nuclear is an expensive and hard option? Due to fragile geopolitical position of Pakistan,security concerns have always forced her to find balance of power in the south Asian region through different ways. Having fought three major wars with India in 1948, 1965 and 1971 in an asymmetric military environment, Pakistan had been in disadvantageous position. War of 1971 in which Pakistan lost its Eastern wing (now Bangladesh, as an independent state) and nuclear explosion by India in 1974 forced Pakistan to follow the nuclear path. This paper analyzes the results of nuclear policy in the form of economic sanctions imposed by US and its allies, and reversal of US policy after 9/11 regarding sanctions against Pakistan. In the wake of 9/11 incident for joining the US led Global War on Terror, General Musharraf had announced that his objective was to save the nuclear and missile assets of Pakistan. This paper analyses that how Pakistani governments of General Musharraf, and Zardari from 2001 to 2013, had been under immense pressure through different coercive tactics ( from Dr. A. Q khan’s network to safety of nuclear program) to ruin the Pakistani nuclear program which had proved to prevent wars between India and Pakistan since 1999 to 2013. What costs Pakistan had to pay and what benefits Pakistan gained due to nuclear program.
Topic:: Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, War, History, Nuclear Power, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, Punjab, and United States of America

4451. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: A Revolution in the Making

Author:: Muhammad Nadeem Mirza, Irfan Hasnain Qaisrani, Lubna Abid Ali, and Ahmad Ali Naqvi
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Since the flight of a kite by some Chinese, thousands of years ago, the UAVs have developed to the level of unleashing immeasurable destruction even without endangering the life of the 'man in the loop'. This paper traces the history of the drones in the modern times while focusing on the American utilization of the UAVs in the wars of the twenty-first century. Drones basically address the 'friction' element of the war. While analyzing the technical aspects of the UAVs, the article assesses the revolution these have brought in the conduct of the warfare. There are issues of collateral damage being labeled against the use of UAVs, but there is no denying the fact that these are the best weapons available in the arsenal to minimize the number of civilian casualties – as compared with the manned aircrafts and the casualties caused by the missiles fired from the aircraft carriers at times stationed hundreds of miles away. Pilotless target aircraft (PTA), Reconnaissance UAVs, and Strike UAVs or UCAVs are the three main types of Drones according to their function. The advantages of the UAVs over the manned aircrafts are the performance of dull, dirty, and dangerous work, their development and use being economical, their tactical advantage of not endangering the life of the controller, and most recently their use in the civilian arena like the flood relief activities, monitoring of the borders, reconnaissance of the areas after accidents or natural disasters, etc. Biggest challenges in the development of the drones are enhancing the endurance and autonomy of the UAVs, in-flight refueling, increasing the payload capacity, having less numbers of satellites, and most importantly the issues related with the international law and the attached ethical issues. With the successful tests of Burraq, Pakistan has also joined the club of the states developing the UAVs and the race is still 'on'.
Topic:: Science and Technology, History, Drones, Conflict, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, Punjab, and United States of America

4452. China’s Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Author:: Umbreen Javaid and Meer Waheed
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The importance of energy rich Middle East region for competing oil dependent economies of China and U.S.A is becoming more intriguing calling for cautious analytical insights for a better understanding. The convergence of interest of U.S and China coupled with the volatile political environment associated with this region questions the notion of „peaceful rise of China‟, the nature of its role in the region, and its commitment to retain neutrality which is analyzed in this paper by drawing inferences from its overall foreign policy behavior in the global affairs China is emerging as an influential actor in international politics owing to its massive economic strength coupled with rapidly developing military might and advancements in science and technology. China‟s journey of development is necessarily hinged upon an uninterrupted supply of energy which is the life line of both its economic and military prowess and in that context the importance of oil rich Middle East region becomes manifold owing to the major chunks of the crude oil china imports from this region. The strategic importance of Middle East region for the U.S.A is also an established fact that presents an interesting case study for analyzing future course of China-U.S strategic relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Oil, Economy, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and United States of America

4453. Explaining the Prevalence, Scaling and Variance of Urban Phenomena

Author:: Andres Gomez-Lievano, Oscar Patterson-Lomba, and Ricardo Hausmann
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: The prevalence of many urban phenomena changes systematically with population size1. We propose a theory that unifies models of economic complexity2, 3 and cultural evolution4 to derive urban scaling. The theory accounts for the difference in scaling exponents and average prevalence across phenomena, as well as the difference in the variance within phenomena across cities of similar size. The central ideas are that a number of necessary complementary factors must be simultaneously present for a phenomenon to occur, and that the diversity of factors is logarithmically related to population size. The model reveals that phenomena that require more factors will be less prevalent, scale more superlinearly and show larger variance across cities of similar size. The theory applies to data on education, employment, innovation, disease and crime, and it entails the ability to predict the prevalence of a phenomenon across cities, given information about the prevalence in a single city.
Topic:: Economics, Urbanization, Employment, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

4454. The Big Stuck in State Capability for Policy Implementation

Author:: Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett, and Michael Woolcock
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: We divide the 102 historically developing countries (HDCs) into those with ‘very weak’, ‘weak’, ‘middle’, and ‘strong’ state capability. Analyzing the levels and recent growth rates of the HDCs’ capability for policy implementation reveals how pervasively “stuck” most of them are. Only eight HDCs have attained strong capability, and since most of these are small (e.g., Singapore, UAE), less than 100 million (or 1.7%) of the roughly 5.8 billion people in HDCs currently live in high capability states. Almost half (49) of these countries have very weak or weak capability, and thus their long-run pace of acquiring capability is also very slow. Alarmingly, three quarters of these countries (36 of 49) have experienced negative growth in state capability in recent decades, while more than a third of all countries (36 of 102) have low and (in the medium run at least) deteriorating state capability. At current rates, the ‘time to high capability’ of the 49 currently weak capability states and the 36 with negative growth is obviously “forever”. But even for the 13 with positive growth, only three would reach strong capability by the end of the 21st century at their current medium run growth.
Topic:: Developing World, International Development, State, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

4455. Bounding the Price Equivalent of Migration Barriers

Author:: Michael Clemens, Claudio E. Montenegro, and Lant Pritchett
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Large international differences in the price of labor can be sustained by differences between workers, or by natural and policy barriers to worker mobility. We use migrant selection theory and evidence to place lower bounds on the ad valorem equivalent of labor mobility barriers to the United States, with unique nationally-representative microdata on both U.S. immigrant workers and workers in their 42 home countries. The average price equivalent of migration barriers in this setting, for low-skill males, is greater than $13,700 per worker per year. Natural and policy barriers may each create annual global losses of trillions of dollars.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Immigration, Economy, and Borders
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4456. Doing Iterative and Adaptive Work

Author:: Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett, and Michael Woolcock
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Many of the challenges in international development are complex in nature. They involve many actors in uncertain contexts and with unclear solutions. Our work has proposed an approach to addressing such challenges, called Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA). This paper is the most recent in a series intended to show how one can do PDIA, building on the first paper, "Doing Problem Driven Work." The current paper addresses a key part of the approach one moves to once a problem has been identified, performing real-time experimental iterations. This is intended as a practical paper that builds on experience and embeds exercises for readers who are actually involved in this kind of work.
Topic:: International Development, State, and Experimental Iterations
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

4457. Managing Your Authorizing Environment in a PDIA Process

Author:: Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett, and Michael Woolcock
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Development and state building processes are about change. Change is, however, elusive in many contexts. In prior work, we have offered problem driven iterative adaptation (PDIA) as an approach to tackle wicked hard change challenges. This is our fourth practical working paper on ‘how’ to do PDIA. The working paper addresses questions about authority, given that authority is needed to make change happen—especially in hierarchical government settings. This authority is often difficult to attain, however. It is seldom located in one office of person, and is often harder to lock-in with complex challenges, given that they commonly involve significant risk and uncertainty and require engagement by many agents responding to different kinds of authority. Every effort must be taken to address such challenges, and efforts should include an explicit strategy to establish an appropriate authorizing environment. This working paper suggests ideas to adopt in this strategy, with practical exercises and examples to help the reader apply such ideas in her or his own work.
Topic:: Development, Government, International Development, and State
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

4458. Valentine’s Day Murder of U.S. Ambassador

Author:: Bruce K. Byers
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Thirty-seven years ago in Kabul, Afghanistan U.S. Ambassador Adolph “Spike” Dubs, a career diplomat and U.S. Navy war veteran, was abducted on his way to the embassy in Kabul and taken to a cavernous old hotel in the center of the city. There he was taken by his abductors to a second floor room and bound to a chair while his embassy driver was sent back to the embassy to alert officials of the abduction. I was the embassy press and information officer in Kabul at the time and had worked often with Ambassador Dubs, introducing him to visiting American and third-country journalists interested in gaining his views on the Marxist Afghan regime under Nur Mohammed Tariki and the progress of the Saur Revolution.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Violence, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, Kabul, and United States of America

4459. Uganda—and triggered observations

Author:: Robert Baker
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Rajat Neogy declared himself referee and demanded a formal exchange of insults contest between Paul Theroux and me. It was the fag end of a very Scotch evening in Rajat’s cluttered, dusty living room up in the green hills of Kampala. Brimming ashtrays and empty beer bottles lay on tables and chairs. Everyone was gone except the three of us. Rajat grinned a brilliant grin as he scribbled down his insult scores as Paul and I exchanged jibes. He grinned and goaded us on. We drank some more. Rajat declared that I had won. Paul was briefly sullen but we had another drink and he came around. Paul is smarter than I but had likely drunk more. We staggered out, leaving Rajat as the rising sun peeped through his windows. Rajat in 1966 was the Indian editor of Transition, Africa’s only literary magazine in English, not run by Europeans. Rajat published most of Africa’s leading writers and many from Europe and the U.S. Paul was then an impecunious English teacher living in a bachelor flat at Makerere University and a commercially unsuccessful novelist. I was Assistant Cultural Affairs Officer at the dusty, run-down American Cultural Center and Library on Kampala Road.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Media, Colonialism, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and United States of America

4460. Tijuana: First Assignment—The Good, the Bad, the Bizarre

Author:: Keith C. Smith
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: During my long career, I heard many colleagues reflect on their first Foreign Service assignment—usually recalling it as a highly positive experience. Unfortunately, my first post left me disillusioned by the Foreign Service and vowing to leave it as soon as feasible. Many of us who have served in Mexican border posts encountered work and management issues quite different from those who witnessed the full range of foreign service life in a large or medium-sized capital. For slightly more than one year (April 1963-May 1964) I decided the futures of large numbers of poor Mexicans anxious to move to the U.S., observed the human tragedy encountered by a duty officer on the border and participated in a sub-rosa rebellion by junior staff against the imperial management style of the Consul-General (CG). Fortunately, the following 36 years in the Foreign Service were very different. The people I worked with and the intellectual challenges offered were sufficient to keep me from walking away from what turned out to be a satisfying career.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Immigration, Borders, and Memoir
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

4461. Pushing Cookies at the Coal Face

Author:: Bob Baker
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Nothing but a bunch of “cookie pushers” is an ancient slur against diplomats who are thus seen as simply sitting at fine tables sipping tea and offering cookies to equally insipid, wealthy and powerful guests abroad. In fact, diplomatic receptions, lunches, dinners, or simple wine and cheese works are intricate payoffs or seductions and very hard work. The pit face of cookie pushing is when the President visits. Everyone at the Embassy turns out to make sure he and his retinue meet or greet in the right order, time and place everyone of use to American interests. The Ambassador works hardest as any slipups are his responsibility. Even the wealthy, politically appointed Ambassador needs to make the President and his visiting staff happy. The career Ambassador’s next post may be in a steaming jungle if mistakes are made or in an important country if all goes well during the “king’s progress”.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Government, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Africa, United States of America, and North America

4462. Old Times on the Soviet Desk

Author:: Peter Bridges
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Back in the late 1950s, when Stalin was not long gone and the Soviet state remained our militarily powerful and dangerous adversary, the State Department’s basic office for dealing with the Russians was a Soviet desk composed of just four members of the Foreign Service and four from the Civil Service, the latter including an archivist and two stenographers. There were of course other Washington offices that had to do with the USSR, in State as well as in CIA, Commerce, the FBI, the Pentagon, and USIA; but we were the primary interface wth the two embassies, the Soviet in Washington and ours in Moscow. Shortly before Christmas in 1957 I became the junior Foreign Service officer on the Soviet desk, after completing the then three-month orientation course for new FSOs at the Department’s Foreign Service Institute.
Topic:: Cold War, Diplomacy, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Russia, Soviet Union, and United States of America

4463. Getting Sick in Africa

Author:: Bob Baker
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Malaria was like having a pain X-ray of all your bones, but after a fever bout, shaking chills diverted attention from your aching bones. I had taken all the anti-malaria pills but had evidently bumped into a new strain upcountry in Mali, West Africa. Catching bugs was also easy in Liberia, and Congo.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Health, Memoir, and Peace Corps
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, and United States of America

4464. Communist Secret Police Unveil the Love of a Lifetime

Author:: Bob Baker
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia came to address a national convention of Australian lawyers. I had requested a top constitutional lawyer and was delighted when Washington headquarters at the U.S. Information Agency in 1986 told me Justice Scalia would spend a week on the program I had suggested. He gave a brilliant exposition on the origins of the American Constitution at the big lawyers convention. His close interpretation of how the Constitution should be read in contemporary America was impressive. The several hundred lawyers loudly applauded his scholarly, but lively lecture.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Law, Supreme Court, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Australia, North America, and United States of America

4465. Angola Terrorist Report

Author:: Robert Baker
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Until I did my report on the March, 1961 terrorist uprising in Angola, I had done well at my job as an intelligence analyst, especially at the hard slog of scanning thousands of pages of reports to assemble a good picture of communist efforts in Africa. My reports helped guide where and how the U.S. Information Agency (USIA) directed its propaganda efforts. They also helped convince Congress that USIA needed more money to match the communists. They outspent us in propaganda by about ten to one, measured by their output of films, radio broadcasts, books, pamphlets, magazines and exhibits tailored for Africa. Communists also gave more equipment and mass media training to Africans than did the U.S., though the West got the best students and other trainees and had a head start in African mass media and education programs. Few top students really wanted to learn Russian or Czechoslovakian for example, nor to live in those countries and to study communist theory in addition to their technical or academic work. A handful of African students at communist universities were recruited for communist intelligence work when they arrived back in Africa.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Terrorism, Colonialism, Violence, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Africa, Portugal, Angola, and United States of America

4466. Too Quick on the Draw: Militarism and the Malpractice of Diplomacy in America

Author:: Chas W. Freeman Jr.
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The late Arthur Goldberg, who served on our Supreme Court and as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, once said that “diplomats approach every question with an open… mouth.” No doubt that’s often true at the U.N., where parliamentary posturing and its evil twin, declaratory diplomacy, rule. But the essence of diplomacy is not talking but seeking common ground by listening carefully and with an open mind to what others don’t say as well as what they do, and then acting accordingly. Diplomacy is how a nation advances its interests and resolves problems with foreigners with minimal violence. It is the nonbelligerent champion of domestic tranquility and prosperity. It promotes mutually acceptable varieties of modus vivendi between differing perspectives and cultures.
Topic:: Cold War, Diplomacy, War, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4467. The Ineffectiveness of American Covert Regime Change Operations During the Struggle Against Islamist Terrorism

Author:: Jason Cooley
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Following the September 11th terrorist attacks, the United States government embarked on a campaign to weaken the Islamic extremist organizations that were present in the world. Some of the steps that this lone superpower took to accomplish this objective could be easily detected. However, there were others that went undetected until investigative reporters wrote about them in The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other reputable newspapers. Once these covert initiatives were exposed, certain parties began to conduct inquiries to ascertain whether or not they were helping the United States prevent terrorist attacks by Islamist networks. Two initiatives, which received a considerable amount of attention in the post-9/11 era, were the Central Intelligence Agency’s drone and enhanced interrogation programs. In 2009, the members of the United States Senate Intelligence Committee revealed that they would be conducting a thorough review of the latter. Approximately five years after this announcement, the committee released a report to the public that said sleep deprivation, waterboarding and other forms of torture did not lead to actionable intelligence. In other words, they did not produce any information that enabled the CIA to foil terrorist attacks which were on the verge of being carried out against the United States (Klapper and Dilanian 2014). A lot of the analyses of the CIA’s drone program were conducted by prominent academics like Fawaz Gerges. At one point in The Rise and Fall of Al Qaeda, this professor at the London School of Economics mentions how drone strikes often killed innocent civilians in Muslim countries. When civilians did perish, extremist organizations would see a rise in the number of recruits who were interested in executing terrorist operations (Gerges 2014, p.25).
Topic:: Intelligence, Regime Change, 9/11, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4468. The Conduct of Foreign Policy in the Information Age

Author:: Walter R. Roberts
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: When Benjamin Franklin represented the new American government at the court of Louis XVI, he received his instructions by sailing ship. One story has it that after not hearing from Ambassador Franklin for a year, President George Washington mused: “Perhaps we should send him a letter.” There is no doubt that in his negotiations with the French government, Franklin actually exercised, in that now archaic phrase, “extraordinary and plenipotentiary powers.” As sail gave way to steam and then to internal combustion and jet engines, the time required to carry the written and printed word physically from place to place was progressively shortened. Franklin, as a pioneer scientist, would have appreciated even more the use of electricity to transmit messages via telegraph and telephone. But neither he, nor most of my generation, just a few short decades ago could have foreseen how electronics, satellite television, fax, email, fiber optics, the Internet, and other digital technologies would transform diplomacy. Those in charge of foreign policy, be they the president of the United States or the prime minister of Great Britain, face situations their predecessors never experienced. Literally every important event around the globe is instantaneously reported, most of the time on television, and reporters, whose numbers have increased enormously in recent years, expect immediate reactions from policy makers, who in turn often feel it necessary to comment when silence and quiet consideration would be preferable.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, and Media
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4469. SITREP: What We Talk About When We Talk About Brazil

Author:: Dick Virden
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Just a few years ago Brazil was a feel good story. Its economy was soaring at a rate to rival China’s. Its charismatic president, Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva, was among the most popular leaders anywhere, a rags-to-riches phenomenon. In 2014, when the Council on Foreign Relations chose its “Great Decisions” topics for the next year, one was “Brazil in Metamorphosis.” Unfortunately, the country has slipped back into its cocoon. The Samba music has stopped. Instead of being on a roll, Brazil is mired in an awful slump. Or as Frank Sinatra put it, riding high in April, shot down in May. What sort of country is this anyway?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Corruption, Government, Economy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

4470. In Defense of The “Obama Doctrine”

Author:: John R. Murnane
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In a series of interviews with Jefferey Goldberg in the April 2016 Atlantic, President Barack Obama provided a much-needed and sober reappraisal of the limits of American power and a realistic view of U.S. foreign policy based on a careful assessment of priorities, or what Goldberg calls the “Obama Doctrine.” The heart of the president’s approach is the rejection of the “Washington Playbook.” Obama told Goldberg, “there’s a playbook in Washington that presidents are supposed to follow. It’s a playbook that comes out of the foreign-policy establishment. And the playbook prescribes responses to different events, and these responses tend to be militarized responses.”1 According to the Playbook, military power and the “creditability” it provides is the principle instrument of American foreign policy; it has been accepted wisdom at think tanks and among foreign policy experts since the end of World War II; Obama has challenged this dictum.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, United Nations, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4471. Are South Asian Arms Sales in the U.S. National Interest? The Foreign Policy Implications

Author:: Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In 1989 I wrote an article urging the United States to stop selling weapons in South Asia.1 It took a liberal stance, arguing that such a step would enable the U.S. to occupy the moral high ground. The U.S. should not sell expensive weapons systems to some of the poorest countries on earth. The U.S. sells weapons to both India and Pakistan, which they then use in senseless wars against each other. The U.S. reduces its credibility as an honest broker by selling weapons to both protagonists, and cannot honestly mediate the Indo/Pakistan conflict. In his latest book Indian security analyst Bharat Karnad2 approaches this issue from a very different perspective. Karnad is a hardcore realist. He wants India to assume its rightful place among the world’s “great powers” and become a formidable military power. However, he sees Indian dependence on weapons systems imported from the United States and other developed nations as a drag on Indian potential. He calls for India to eschew imports and embark on a radical indigenization program to replace imported arms with those made by an expanded Indian arms industry that includes both the public and private sectors.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and United States of America

4472. Africa’s Great Hunger Handicap

Author:: Mark Wentling
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Africa’s hunger problem is a long standing one that has been exacerbated by a rapid population growth rate that has outstripped the continent’s ability to feed itself. A number of countries in Africa are now experiencing structural food deficits. The population of Africa currently stands at nearly 1.2 billion, twice what it was in 1985, and it is projected to double again by 2050, surpassing the populations of both China and India by 2023. At the current population growth rate, Africans will represent half the world’s population by 2035.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Health, and Hunger
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

4473. China and the World in the Coming Decade

Author:: Shyam Saran
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: In the next decade, how US-China relations unfold will shape the external environment for countries like India. How does China perceive the Trump presidency?
Topic:: International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trump
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4474. Digitizing Refugees: The Effect Of Technology On Forced Displacement By Timothy Loh

Author:: Timothy Loh
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Recent technological advances have brought with them a swath of benefits for displaced persons fleeing their country of origin. Relatively cheap mobile devices have made it easy for refugees today to keep in touch with each other and with their families over large distances using instant messaging or video-calling services. These capabilities provide refugees with a larger social network, and may prove especially important to those not as well-integrated into their host communities, such as Somali refugees in Jordan. Improved formal wire transfer systems and informal banking systems have also eased the sending of monetary remittances, a crucial aspect of social ties between refugees and their families in the homeland, who use the money for immediate subsistence needs as well as social functions. Transnational social media networks such as Facebook and Twitter have, in some cases, also benefited refugees, often in raising awareness of the refugee crisis.
Topic:: Migration, Science and Technology, Refugees, Internet, and Displacement
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

4475. The Extraordinary Story and Discovery of Yarrow Mamout: From African Slave to Georgetown Property Owner

Author:: Susan Douglass
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Unlike the few great figures depicted in legends and memorialized in statuary, most inhabitants of this earth have lived their lives—and passed away—invisible to history. Occasionally, the stories of ordinary people do emerge from the shadows of history, but the evidence left behind rarely tells us much about their personalities or characters, as such humble individuals likely drew little public notice during their lifetimes. Yarrow Mamout, a citizen of Georgetown who died in 1823, is one very notable exception.
Topic:: History, Slavery, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: West Africa, North America, United States of America, Washington, and D.C.

4476. Syrian Scholar Finds Safe Haven at CCAS: A Conversation with Visiting Lecturer Mohammad AlAhmad

Author:: Will Todman, Mohammad AlAhmad, and Dana Dairani
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: On April 22, 2015, CCAS Visiting Lecturer Dr. Mohammad AlAmad and his family left their home and lives in Syria behind. “Human smugglers drove us to the Turkish border,” says AlAhmad, “and then my wife and I carried our two young children, walking through barbed wire and muddy water into Turkey. We were full of trepidation, fear, and the pain of being displaced.” Though AlAhmad left Syria because he had been accepted to participate in the Institute of International Education’s Scholar Rescue Fund, which provides support for threatened scholars and places them with visiting appointments at partner academic institutions, he did not yet know his family’s ultimate destination. Once in Turkey, AlAhmad learned that his appointment would be at Georgetown, starting in August.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Refugees, Islamic State, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Literature, Revolution, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, North America, United States of America, and Raqqa

4477. Looking Back, Giving Forward

Author:: Vicki Valosik
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: After three generations of Hoyas, CCAS Board Member Peter Tanous is investing in future students through new MAAS scholarship. When Peter Tanous walked across the stage to accept his diploma from Georgetown University almost thirty years after his father had done the same in 1932, he was establishing a family tradition—becoming the second of three generations of Tanouses to graduate from Georgetown, including two of his own children who would later attend. Now Tanous, a member of the CCAS Board of Advisors, is making it possible for others to gain a Georgetown education. The new Tanous Family Endowed Scholarship Fund, which Tanous established at CCAS earlier this year, will support students of the Master of Arts in Arab Studies (MAAS) program.
Topic:: History, Higher Education, and Profile
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4478. IR THEORY, DIFFERENCE AND SUBJECTIVITY: ON CONDITIONS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF POST-WESTERN IR THEORY

Author:: Muhammed A. Ağcan
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: The question of difference and multiplicity in IR has been conventionally defined by the particularistic ontology of the sovereign-state based on a certain understanding of the relationship between humanity and socio-political community. In the last three decades by bringing gender, race, class, post-sovereign socio-political communities, cultural-civilizational identities etc. into IR, critical international relations theories have sought to rethink the international as being conscious of its historico-cultural settings and recognizing multiple ethico-political worlds and international imaginations in contemporary human societies. The recent debate on post-Western IR theory emerging within this conceptual-historical context seeks to problematize Eurocentrism in IR and to find ways to include non / post-western historico-cultural worlds, socio-political forms and international imaginations. Postcolonial account of this scholarly debate focuses on the colonial relations of international politics originated in the world historicity of European modernity / capitalism defending the co-constitution of self and other and accordingly develops the postcolonial subjectivity. This article critically engages with this debate on post-Western IR theory and specifically postcolonial standpoint by asking whether, how or to what extent we could conceptualize differences of non / post-Western subjectivities. Keywords: Post-Western IR, Eurocentrism, Postcolonialism, Non-Western Subjectivity.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Capitalism, Decolonization, and Modernization
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

4479. Missile Defense: Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Administration

Author:: Henry F. Cooper, Malcolm R. O'Neill, Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr., and Rowland H. Worrell
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
Abstract:: This IFPA/Independent Working Group on Missile Defense white paper proposes the return to key elements of the Strategic Defensive Initiative (SDI) era, particularly to deploy space-based ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems, as part of an effective strategy to combat growing threats by rogue states or terrorists that have or may soon have the ability to conduct a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack.
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Counter-terrorism, Weapons, Trump, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: Iran, Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

4480. Cuba-US Relations: Normalization and its Challenges

Author:: Margaret Crahan, Soraya M. Castro-Mariño, William M. LeoGrande, Soraya M. Castro-Mariño, Jorge I. Domínguez, Claudia Marín Suárez, Susan Eckstein, Jesús Arboleya Cervera, Margaret Crahan, Alberto R. Coll, Geoff Thale, Bárbara Garea Moreda, Ramón Pichs Madruga, Julia Sagebien, Eric Leenson, Robert L. Bach, Ashley Miller, Ted Piccone, Carlos Ciaño Zanetti, Mike Kopetski, John H. Coatsworth, Philip Brenner, and Colleen Scribner
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
Abstract:: This volume is a result of the dialogue between experts on Cuba-U.S. relations initiated by the Centro de Investigaciones de Política Internacional of the Instituto Superior de Relaciones Internacionales (CIPI/ISRI). Aimed at bringing together scholars and policymakers, among others, with expertise on the topic, the annual meetings in Havana have for years stimulated in-depth discussions by participants primarily from Cuba, the United States, and Latin America. The exchanges represent a wide range of perspectives and even of vocabularies. For example, the Cubans use the word blockade when referring to the U.S. embargo of the island and tend to hear “regime change” when U.S. officials refer to “democracy promotion”. In one respect there has been considerable consensus—that U.S. policy toward Cuba since the 1960s was a failed policy as the Obama administration eventually concluded and many experts have argued. The 2014 annual CIPI/ISRI meeting was in full swing on December 17, 2014 when rumors began to circulate that President Raúl Castro and President Barack Obama were going to make statements at mid-day concerning Cuba-U.S. relations. Tension mounted and at noon there was standing room only in the conference auditorium as the two Presidents announced on TV their commitment to the normalization of relations that had been ruptured in 1961. The room erupted in cheers, sobs, and the singing of the Cuban and U.S. national anthems. The experts were shocked. In panel after panel during the previous two days, they had speculated that there might be some relaxation of tensions, but no one predicted the initiation of a move toward normalization and the resumption of formal diplomatic relations. In the midst of the celebration Wayne Smith, who as a young Foreign Service officer had been tasked with closing the U.S. embassy in Havana in 1961, entered the auditorium and soon chants of “WAYNE—WAYNE” echoed throughout and he was pushed forward and asked to speak. Wayne had been honored the night before for his work to resolve U.S.-Cuban conflicts beginning when he resigned as the Chief of the US Interest Section in 1982 over differences with the Reagan administration’s policies toward Cuba. From that time forward he fought for a reconceptualization of U.S. policy toward Cuba as a scholar-advocate. Wayne simply said that the night before December 17, 2014 he had prayed that normalization would occur before he died and that his prayers had been answered. The moment catalyzed what many conference participants were feeling—a sense that after more than fifty years of hostilities the long road toward normalization could begin. It is the objective of this book to analyze the first two years of the process toward normalization of Cuba-U.S. relations from December 17, 2014 to January 2017. The majority of the chapters are revised and updated versions of papers presented at the 2015 CIPI/ISRI conference. A few of the chapters were commissioned afterwards to cover such topics as sanctions and claims. This volume does not attempt to modify the opinions or conclusions of the authors. Rather it lets the differences stand in an effort to better comprehend what has kept the two neighboring countries apart for so long and the nature of the challenges facing the process toward normalization. The authors analyze the causes of over fifty years of hostile relations interspersed with fitful negotiations that were marked by lack of trust, misperceptions, and miscues, as well as the challenges the process toward normalization currently faces. Since D17 (December 17, 2014) a bilateral Cuba-U.S. commission has been established, as well as technical working groups, in order to devise new agreements and stimulate the unravelling of the substantial accumulation of laws, regulations, and directives in both countries that have slowed the process toward normalization. Progress in introducing new regulations and directives has been slow and arduous. While some advances have been made particularly in terms of easing restrictions on travel to Cuba, as well as encouraging commerce and communications, much remains to be done. In addition, major impediments exist—the principal one being the U.S. embargo/blockade of Cuba which requires action by the U.S. Congress to remove. There are also major issues relating to U.S. preferential treatment of Cuban immigrants, continuing U.S. sanctions, as well as legal claims by both parties for expropriated properties and damages. The identification of mutual interests and agreements to cooperate has been apparent in Cuba-U.S. exchanges on security and environmental issues, among others. Both the Cuban and U.S. negotiators have admitted over the last two years that the process is difficult. Among the challenges are developing a common vocabulary regarding issues of sovereignty. Other questions are related to the direction of each country’s foreign policy particularly given domestic developments in both countries, for example, the level of political and ideological polarization in the United States and the actions that President Donald Trump and a Republican Congress might take beginning in January 2017. Add to this the stated intention President Raúl Castro to end his term as head of state in early 2018 and unknowns abound.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diaspora, Bilateral Relations, Immigration, Sanctions, Regional Integration, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

4481. The Dispatch (Fall 2016)

Author:: David J. Bercuson, Julian Lindley-French, Alan Stephenson, Neil Desai, John Adams, Charity Weeden, Elinor Sloan, Mike Day, Stephen M. Saideman, Kyle Matthews, and David McLaughlin
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Global Exchange
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The Dispatch (later called The Global Exchange) is the Canadian Global Affairs Institute’s quarterly magazine featuring topical articles written by our fellows and other contributing experts. Each issue contains approximately a dozen articles exploring political and strategic challenges in international affairs and Canadian foreign and defence policy. This Fall 2016 issue includes articles on climate change, digital security, Brexit and more.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Cybersecurity, Brexit, Military Spending, Alliance, and Space
Political Geography:: Britain, Turkey, Canada, North America, and United States of America

4482. The Dispatch (Winter 2016)

Author:: David J. Bercuson, Frédérick Gagnon, Randolph Mank, Colin Robertson, Robert Huebert, Hugh Stephens, Gary Soroka, Hugh Segal, Daryl Copeland, David Perry, and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Global Exchange
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The Dispatch (later called The Global Exchange) is the Canadian Global Affairs Institute’s quarterly magazine featuring topical articles written by our fellows and other contributing experts. Each issue contains approximately a dozen articles exploring political and strategic challenges in international affairs and Canadian foreign and defence policy. This Winter 2016 issue includes articles on the election of Donald Trump, energy policy, Canadian defense capability, and more.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Energy Policy, Elections, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, Europe, Canada, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

4483. Military Cooperation in MENA: Uncertainty in the Face of Changing Threats

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: This Policy Paper is part of The Middle East Institute's Regional Cooperation Series. Throughout 2016, MEI will be releasing several policy papers by renowned scholars and experts exploring possibilities to foster regional cooperation across an array of sectors. The purpose is to highlight the myriad benefits and opportunities associated with regional cooperation, and the high costs of the continued business-as-usual model of competition and intense rivalry. It is all too easy to develop ambitious plans for regional security cooperation. In practice, however, almost all real world security cooperation is dependent on the different priorities states give to various threats, the willingness of given regimes to act, the resources they develop and have available, and the level of interoperability between their forces. Actual security cooperation in the MENA region has long been limited, occurred between changing mixes of individual countries rather than on a regional basis, and always lagged behind the rhetoric. Better cooperation on this level could evolve in the face of forces such as Iran’s military efforts, a powerful new Islamist extremist threat, or the outcomes to the fighting in Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. However, there is little reason to assume, given regional trends, that the prospects for regional cooperation or cooperation between states will improve in the near future, and bilateral relations with external powers, principally the United States, are likely to continue to play a more critical role in the future.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

4484. Understanding China’s Foreign Policy Goals in Asia Through the South China Sea Disputes

Author:: Srdan Ulijević
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: Ever since the launch of the Reform and Opening policy in 1978 China has been under close scrutiny of scholars and policymakers for its potential to transform the world’s economic, political and military relations. As the country’s economy grew larger and its political clout became more in�luential, international relations scholars had been applying various models and theories in order to understand and possibly predict China’s foreign policy behavior. Questions pertaining to whether China will be a status quo or revisionist power in the international system became even more relevant after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. With its sizeable landmass, strategic geopolitical location, large population and rapidly modernizing economy, China had all the trappings of a potential superpower. With its sizeable landmass, strategic geopolitical location, large population and rapidly modernizing economy, China had all the trappings of a potential superpower. By joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China had effectively secured the key economic component necessary to achieve the crux of its grand strategy – to build comprehensive national power as well as to increase its in�luence in international fora. As a result of the WTO membership, China’s economy was propelled to new heights and its GDP grew more than eight times between 2001 and 2014. On the diplomatic front, multilateral and bilateral cooperation proliferated, with countries from every continent �locking to Beijing to sign trade deals. The EU offered to share its normative experience in regional cooperation while the US openly invited China to become a “responsible stakeholder” in 2005. For its part, China initiated a series of bold diplomatic moves towards the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), branded by the media and policymakers as the charm offensive policy. The charm offensive period lasted from 1997 to 2008 and paved the way for China’s deeper economic, political and military cooperation with Southeast Asian countries. The policy fueled dreams of China becoming the engine of ASEAN’s future economic growth and prosperity.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

4485. Water Resources in American Samoa: Law and Policy Opportunities for Climate Change Adaptation

Author:: Richard Wallsgrove and Zena Grecni
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Freshwater resource managers in American Sāmoa are facing climate change issues. A projected increase in frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, rising sea level, and rising air temperature are among these climate-related dynamics. This confirms the need for effective climate change adaptation strategies, particularly with respect to protecting water quality. The existing law, policy, and management framework for American Sāmoa's freshwater resources is somewhat fractured, consisting of overlaid US federal environmental laws and regulations, territorial laws and policies, utility management of groundwater, and village-based management of surface water. This framework presents both challenges and opportunities, but foundational adaptive needs--such as resource monitoring, awareness, and continuing climate research--are pressing. This work identifies nine opportunities to enhance adaptive capacity within American Sāmoa's existing law and policy framework.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: United States of America

4486. U.S. Policy in a Changing World

Author:: A. Kortunov and A. Frolov
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The U.S. foreign policy today has fallen on hard times. The world is entering a new era with a lot of totally new challenges, including untraditional challenges that the U.S. leadership is faced with. In some instances, Washington manages to fit into ongoing processes while in others, the situation starts to follow a different scenario and then this policy, which is based on a number of important and fundamental principles, begins to founder. Regarding the U.S. policy, perhaps it makes sense to start off not with it but with more fundamental concepts. I believe that there is a problem related to the uneven development of states. Obviously, this greatly affects the foreign policy of the United States that is entering into a new situation in the world, which is related to the emergence of new points of growth and influence, and the erosion of the previously established centers and structures with the downgrading of the role of traditional centers of force in global affairs.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Globalization, Politics, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: United States of America

4487. Strategic Insights: Whiskey over Books, Again? Anti-Intellectualism and the Future Effectiveness of Army 2025

Author:: Dr. Don M. Snider
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Crossing the Plains on an expedition to Utah [in the 1850s], Major Charles A. May searched the wagons in an effort to reduce unnecessary baggage. When he reached the wagons of the light artillery battery, Captain Henry J. Hunt proudly pointed out the box containing the battery library. “Books,” May exclaimed. “You say books? Whoever heard of books being hauled over the Plains? What the hell are you going to do with them?” At that moment Captain Campbell of the Dragoons came up and asked permission to carry a barrel of whiskey. ”Yes, anything in reason Captain, you can take along the whiskey, but damned if these books shall go.
Topic:: Education, Military Affairs, and Ethics
Political Geography:: United States of America

4488. Costa Rica and the United States: An Enduring Partnership

Author:: S. Fitzgerald Haney
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: The United States’ strong partnership with Costa Rica has deep roots: our countries established diplomatic relations in 1851, when Costa Rican Minister Felipe Molina presented his credentials in Washington, and a Treaty of Friendship, Commerce, and Navigation was finalized the following year. This early cooperation provided a strong foundation for a bilateral relationship that has only gained depth and breadth, and which continues to grow, evolve, and reveal new sources of strength. Today, the United States is Costa Rica’s largest trading partner and greatest source of foreign investment. Costa Rica’s stability, natural beauty, and proximity to the United States make it a favorite destination for US citizens—tourists, investors, and residents alike—further deepening the connections between our countries. Our shared values, long history of close cultural and commercial ties, and growing cooperation on regional initiatives make Costa Rica a valued strategic partner as the United States promotes prosperity, good governance, and security—the three pillars of the US Strategy for Engagement in Central America (the Strategy)—throughout the region.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance
Political Geography:: Costa Rica and United States of America

4489. Gradual and Deliberate Engagement Leads to Trust and Change in Cameroon

Author:: Michael S. Hoza
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: Since its independence in the 1960s, Cameroon has shared few common objectives with the United States. Its vaunted political stability has been predicated on a complex system of tribal patronage and—through most of its history—strict controls on freedom of expression and assembly. This stability has been punctuated by periods of political violence and crackdowns, most recently in 2008, which have alienated the international community and strained bilateral relations. Yet, confronted by the threat of violent extremism and virulent pandemics, Cameroon and the United States have begun to “push on open doors” to expand and deepen bilateral relations, and this in turn has opened up further—previously impossible—avenues for discussion on sensitive topics, such as humanitarian assistance and democratic and political transition.
Topic:: Political Violence, Humanitarian Aid, Bilateral Relations, Violent Extremism, and Freedom of Expression
Political Geography:: Cameroon and United States of America

4490. The Untapped Potential of English Teaching

Author:: Megan Metrick
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: Public Diplomacy (PD) at the State Department shows signs of going through a serious rethink. The push to be more strategic in our programming has taken off. Public Diplomacy officers can rattle off the Integrated Country Strategy goals with the best of them. More rigorous program planning and evaluation may be coming to a cloud platform near you soon (see the excellent article by my colleague Carissa Gonzalez in the previous issue of The Ambassadors Review). Social media regulations are in the Foreign Affairs Manual. EducationUSA and American Spaces have slick branding, unified looks, and centralized websites. These new strategies and tools are great, and in many cases, long overdue. However, as we redesign Public Diplomacy for the 21st century (albeit we are already well into that century), we should go back to the basics for a moment, and remember why we’re here.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Education, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

4491. The Case for a New Era of Person-to-Person Exchange

Author:: Alexa L. Wesner
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: Since the end of the Second World War, the United States and Austria have enjoyed one of the most mutually beneficial and prosperous relationships in the world. Born from a shared desire for lasting peace and nourished by trade, education, and people-to-people exchanges, Austria and the United States share an intertwined past and interconnected future. Today, our shared democratic ideals and our willingness to work together to combat global threats serve as an example of collaboration on the world stage. But since the earliest days of the modern era, our common goals have been underwritten by a series of often-overlooked exchange programs that have exposed thousands of people to the significance of our shared values. The intimate human bonds built by exchange participants continue to weave an increasingly beautiful, intricate, and durable social fabric that strengthens our bilateral relationship.
Topic:: Politics, War, Bilateral Relations, and Global Security
Political Geography:: Austria and United States of America

4492. The United States and the European Union: Essential Partners in a Turbulent World

Author:: Anthony Luzzatto Gardner
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: Four years ago the European Union won the Nobel Peace Prize for the “over six decades [in which it has] contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy, and human rights in Europe.” How quickly the mood has changed. While it has become fashionable to charge that the European Union is on the verge of collapse in the face of dire current challenges, rumors of the European Union’s demise would appear premature. The successes achieved in 2015, as well as the potential future areas of good news, are frequently underappreciated. The United States is firmly committed to investing in its relationship with the European Union. This is a partnership that delivers, as it will bring dividends to both the United States and the European Union for the long term.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Democracy, Europe, and Europe Union
Political Geography:: Europe, United States of America, and European Union

4493. Potential Beneficiaries of the Obama Administration’s Executive Action Programs Deeply Embedded in US Society

Author:: Donald Kerwin and Robert Warren
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: The Obama administration has developed two broad programs to defer immigration enforcement actions against undocumented persons living in the United States: (1) Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA); and (2) Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). The DACA program, which began in August 2012, was expanded on November 20, 2014. DAPA and the DACA expansion (hereinafter referred to as “DACA-plus”) are currently under review by the US Supreme Court and subject to an active injunction. This paper offers a statistical portrait of the intended direct beneficiaries of DAPA, DACA, and DACA-plus. It finds that potential DAPA, DACA, and DACA-plus recipients are deeply embedded in US society, with high employment rates, extensive US family ties, long tenure, and substantial rates of English-language proficiency. The paper also notes various groups that would benefit indirectly from the full implementation of DAPA and DACA or, conversely, would suffer from the removal of potential beneficiaries of these programs. For example, all those who would rely on the retirement programs of the US government will benefit from the high employment rates and relative youth of the DACA population, while many US citizens who rely on the income of a DAPA-eligible parent would fall into poverty or extreme poverty should that parent be removed from the United States.
Topic:: Human Welfare, Poverty, Labor Issues, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States of America

4494. US Undocumented Population Drops Below 11 Million in 2014, with Continued Declines in the Mexican Undocumented Population

Author:: Robert Warren
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Undocumented immigration has been a significant political issue in recent years, and is likely to remain so throughout and beyond the presidential election year of 2016. One reason for the high and sustained level of interest in undocumented immigration is the widespread belief that the trend in the undocumented population is ever upward. This paper shows that this belief is mistaken and that, in fact, the undocumented population has been decreasing for more than a half a decade. Other findings of the paper that should inform the immigration debate are the growing naturalized citizen populations in almost every US state and the fact that, since 1980, the legally resident foreign-born population from Mexico has grown faster than the undocumented population from Mexico.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Immigrants
Political Geography:: Mexico and United States of America

4495. Rethinking the International Monetary System

Author:: John B. Taylor
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In previous articles in the annual monetary issue of the Cato Journal, I drew on historical facts and economic theory to explain the benefits of rules-based monetary policy and why legislation could help the United States reap those benefits (Taylor 2011, 2013a). In this article, I discuss the international aspects of monetary policy, a subject often glossed over in modern debates about rules-based policy, at least compared with discussions about the classic rulesbased gold standard.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

4496. Subnational Economic Freedom and Performance in the United States and Canada

Author:: Daniel L. Bennett
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: During his illustrious career spanning more than half a century, Richard Vedder has tirelessly advocated for limited government and free enterprise. Much of his scholarship has focused on examining how fiscal and labor market policies consistent with the principles of economic freedom are associated with economic and social benefits such as stronger economic performance (Vedder 1981, 1990), lower unemployment (Vedder and Gallaway 1996, 1997), and poverty alleviation (Vedder and Gallaway 2002). Vedder has also examined the impact of government policy on income inequality (Vedder 2006; Vedder and Gallaway 1986, 1999; Vedder, Gallaway, and Sollars 1988), an area that he and I have collaborated to study (Bennett and Vedder 2013, 2015). Thus, Vedder’s scholarship has contributed to our understanding of the impact that economic freedom exerts on economic outcomes.
Topic:: Government, Income Inequality, Economy, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

4497. Manila’s Pivot Toward Beijing

Author:: Peter Wood
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In mid-October, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte visited China. His visit was marked by a recalibration in Philippine policy toward China and the announcement of economic and military “separation” from the United States.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: China, Malaysia, Asia, Philippines, and United States of America

4498. Guerre, reconstruction de l’Etat et invention de la tradition en Afghanistan (War, Reconstruction of the State and Invention of Tradition in Afghanistan)

Author:: Fariba Adelkhah
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:: War since 1979 and the reconstruction of the state under Western tutelage since 2001 have led to a simplification of the identity of Afghan society, through an invention of ethnicity and tradition – a process behind which the control or the ownership of the political and economic resources of the country are at stake. Hazarajat is a remarkable observation site of this process. Its forced integration into the nascent Afghan state during the late nineteenth century has left a mark on its history. The people of Hazara, mainly Shi’ite, has been relegated to a subordinate position from which it got out of progressively, only by means of jihad against the Soviet occupation in the 1980s and the US intervention in 2001, at the ost of an ethnicization of its social and political consciousness. Ethnicity, however, is based on a less communitarian than unequal moral and political economy. Post-war aid to state-building has polarized social relations, while strengthening their ethnicization: donors and NGOs remain prisoners of a cultural, if not orientalist approach to the country that they thereby contribute to “traditionalize”, while development aid destabilizes the “traditional” society by accelerating its monetization and commodification.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Religion, War, History, Sociology, Peacekeeping, Identities, State, and Anthropology
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Central Asia, Asia, and United States of America

4499. Theater-level Command and Alliance Decision-Making Architecture in Korea

Author:: Shawn P. Creamer
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The theater-level command relationships in the Republic of Korea are complex and nuanced. They are often misunderstood by American and South Korean military and civilian leaders. Available open source resources often focus on specific elements of the command relationships, sometimes over-relying on official rhetoric from the respective commands. These narratives don’t provide a complete picture of how these distinct organizations work together towards the common goal of defending South Korea from North Korean aggression. This paper consolidates and amalgamates relevant open source resources to provide clarity to what was previously an opaque understanding of the interconnected, yet distinct relationships between the four concurrently operating theater-level commands that have roles in defending South Korea. In particular, this paper dissects each command’s roles, its relationships with the commands, and guidance and direction governing each command.
Topic:: United Nations, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Alliance
Political Geography:: South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

4500. China’s Uneven Response to THAAD and its Coercive Strategy Aimed at the ROK: Implications for the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Author:: George Hutchinson
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The United States-Republic of Korea Alliance has arrived at a critical juncture. In July 2016, the countries jointly decided to deploy the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) ballistic missile defense system to the Korean Peninsula to defend against North Korea’s accelerating nuclear and ballistic missile programs. China has long opposed an American-led, regional missile defense system, persistently warning South Korea against deploying THAAD. Since the deciding to deploy THAAD, the political landscapes in the U.S. and the ROK have changed dramatically. The new Donald J. Trump administration has signaled a change from the previous administration’s “strategic patience” policy, but details of the new approach have yet to emerge. North Korea, meanwhile, continues to aggressively test ballistic missiles and promote its nuclear weapons program. In South Korea, the impeachment and subsequent removal of Park Geun-hye triggered the need for a snap election, and a left-leaning candidate, Moon Jae-in, is leading in the polls. The election could mark a return of previous liberal administration policies that favored cooperation with North Korea. Additionally, Moon has signaled his opposition to THAAD. Nonetheless, the U.S. began deploying THAAD to South Korea in March 2017. China retaliated, implementing a series of economic, political, and military measures to pressure South Korea. This paper provides background on THAAD, analyzes the decision by Washington and Seoul to deploy the system to Korea, and examines Beijing’s concerns and coercive counterstrategy
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Military Strategy, Weapons, Missile Defense, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

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