Political Geography: United States of America / Publication Year: within 10 Years

4001. Case Study: Fake Defense Contractor Indicted for Exporting Military Related Drawings to Turkey

Author:: Hanah Joudi and Andrea Stricker
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:: On September 5, 2018, the owner of a New Jersey defense contracting firm, Ferdi Murat Gul, was indicted by a grand jury in the United States District Court in the District of New Jersey on charges of wire fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, violating the Arms Export Control Act (AECA), and conspiracy to violate the AECA. Gul, a Turkish citizen, is the principal owner, chief executive officer, and general manager of two U.S.-based businesses: an alleged defense contracting company, Bright Machinery Manufacturing Group Inc. (BMM), and an alleged manufacturing company, FMG Machinery Group (FMG), and also holds ownership interests in a manufacturing company in Turkey, HFMG Insaat (HFMG). From October 2010 to June 2015, BMM was awarded approximately $7 million in 346 U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) contracts to manufacture military parts in the United States and provide them to DOD customers, such as the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. But according to the indictment, in reality, BMM was a front company set up with the purpose of defrauding the United States. The parts it manufactured included those “for torpedoes for the U.S. Navy, bomb ejector racks and armament utilized in U.S. Air Force aircraft, and firearms and mine clearance systems used by U.S. military personnel abroad.” Allegedly, Gul and two unnamed, un-indicted co-conspirators falsely claimed that BMM manufactured these parts in the United States. However, the indictment alleges that BMM illegally exported technical military drawings to manufacture the parts in Turkey, and then sold the parts – some of which had “design flaws and non-conformities and were unusable” – to U.S. customers.
Topic:: Crime, Illegal Trade, and Military Contractors
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4002. Toward a New Model for the U.S.-Israel Relationship

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: By leveraging its remarkable achievements in the fields most relevant to future conflicts, Israel can transition from dependence on the U.S. to partnership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

4003. Waking Up to the Iranian Threat

Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: With the weakening of ISIS, the growing strength of Russia in Syria, and the continuing retraction of American involvement in the region – Iran apparently feels emboldened enough to escalate its confrontation with Israel.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and ISIS
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4004. Hot Winds of the Cold War

Author:: Uzi Rubin
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: In his recent “State of the Nation” address, Russian President Putin unveiled six new strategic, advanced weapon systems. The important point about these impressive weapons is their ability to penetrate the global missile defense system that according to Putin is being deployed by the United States. But, such a system does not exist and is not even being planned. It is not surprising that the US responded to Putin’s speech with indifference. Putin’s speech reveals, more than anything else, the continuing Russian trauma from the “Star Wars” initiative of President Reagan
Topic:: Military Strategy, Weapons, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

4005. After the Latest Chemical Attack, the US Should Stay in Syria

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel and America must avoid one-fit-all options regarding the military challenges in different parts of disintegrating Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4006. Trump’s Promo?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4007. Trump Changes the Discourse

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The broader context to US President Trump’s recent decisions to nix the nuclear deal with Iran and to move the US embassy to Jerusalem is restoration of America’s credibility as a world power after eight years of diffident presidential leadership.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

4008. 10 reasons to tank the F-35 jet sale to Turkey

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Turkey is no longer a reliable Western ally. Provision of the F-35 jet would strengthen Erdogan’s authoritarian Islamist regime and boost its capabilities for regional mischief.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4009. The Security Dimension of a China Free Trade Agreement: Balancing Benefits and Risk

Author:: Gordon Houlden
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: In 2017, Canada engaged in several rounds of exploratory discussions for a potential free trade agreement (FTA) with the People’s Republic of China. It seemed probable that this exploratory phase would be followed by the opening of formal rounds of negotiations, to be announced during Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s visit to China in December 2017. An FTA appeared to be a priority for Trudeau since his government came into office in 2015 (Global Affairs Canada, 2017a; Lu, 2017; PMO, 2017); however, such negotiations were put on hold indefinitely, ostensibly due to irreconcilable differences on gender and labour issues. Despite this setback, it is likely that the Canadian government will continue to explore this option in the coming years, particularly with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in jeopardy. While there are many potential benefits of a Canada-China free trade agreement (CCFTA), there are also significant national security implications that will deserve particular attention. The security dimension will be the focus of this paper. Prospective CCFTA negotiations with China would be both complex and time consuming, in part due to the wide divergences between the Canadian and Chinese economies, as well as differences between Canadian and Chinese administrative and legal systems. Negotiations could therefore take several years to conclude, and might not be finished until well after the 2019 federal election. It took a full decade to sign and ratify the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), although it appears that the most difficult portion of the negotiations was wrapped up in the final two years. It is unlikely that a CCFTA will move as slowly as the Australian FTA did, in part because of the established Australian precedent and because of China’s increasing familiarity with FTA negotiations that involve advanced economies. For this reason, Canada would benefit from approaching a CCFTA after Australia, but before many other Western countries. Chinese and Canadian negotiators will be consumed with elaborating the principles of each side’s responsive FTA approaches, as well as the myriad of details involving thousands of products and services that a CCFTA’s provisions would affect. Canadian negotiators will seek a high-quality FTA that covers a large percentage of our export and import products with China, as well as an agreement that covers all key sectors and industries. There is also likely to be a Canadian focus on addressing China’s use of non-tariff barriers to trade which currently inhibit Canadian firms from taking full advantage of the massive China market. Such measures include the Chinese Ministry of Health’s 2013 changes to food safety standards which required all imported food products to list detailed nutritional components in Chinese. Procedural barriers such as this represent a significant hurdle for Canadian firms, and cause uncertainty among international exporters that want to break into the Chinese domestic market. In theory, the centralized Chinese economy lacks the regional complexity of the Canadian federal state, characterized by sub-national units, but in reality, China’s provinces and municipalities can, and often do, impose barriers to foreign imports, often to protect market share for local substantive industries. To date, China has FTAs with only a handful of developed countries. Australia, Korea, Switzerland, Iceland, Singapore and New Zealand currently have bilateral FTAs with China, and several others, such as Norway and Israel, are in FTA negotiations. China is also floating ideas for FTAs with developing countries, including India. China is far more trade-dependent than the United States, although by comparison China is not nearly as trade-dependent as Canada is.1 The balance of trade is currently in China’s favour: China exports US$46 billion to Canada, versus the US$16 billion that it imports from Canada (MIT, 2016a). However, it is important to note that China’s exports to Canada account for only 2.2 per cent of China’s total merchandise exports (MIT, 2016b).
Topic:: Security, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Asia, and United States of America

4010. Game On: The new strategy of the US and its allies in the Middle East

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Bad management, corruption and a failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to generate expected levels of foreign investment compound the problem.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

4011. The US should have Left the UN Human Rights Council Years Ago

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The UNHRC was hopelessly biased, obsessed with Israel, and highly tolerant towards a full range of human rights abusers.
Topic:: Human Rights, United Nations, UN Human Rights Council (HRC), and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

4012. Justice for the Victims: How Canada Should Manage Returning “Foreign Fighters”

Author:: Kyle Matthews
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The U.S.-led international coalition has dislodged the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the cities it had occupied and controlled, namely Mosul and Raqqa. But while the group is weakened, it lives on and remains dangerous. Both the U.S. Department of Defense and the UN estimate that approximately 30,000 ISIS fighters remain in those countries. At the same time, a significant number of “foreign fighters” have fled Iraq and Syria. Numerous countries are struggling to find policy solutions with regards to managing the return of their nationals who had joined the group. The Canadian government has stated publicly that it favors taking a comprehensive approach of reintegrating returnees back into society. Very few foreign fighters who have returned to Canada have been prosecuted. Canada has both a moral and legal duty to seek justice and uphold the most basic human rights of vulnerable populations. ISIS and other jihadist groups engaged in systematic mass atrocities against minorities in Iraq and Syria, including Christians and Shiites. ISIS has demonstrated a particular disdain for the Yazidi minority in Iraq, and the Canadian government has recognized the group’s crimes against the Yazidis as genocide. As a State Party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and a signatory of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, Canada has a responsibility to uphold these international legal conventions when formulating carefully crafted policy responses that deal with returning foreign fighters. Canada should attempt to prosecute its nationals in domestic courts using the Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act. Open trials can serve as means by which to lay bare ISIS’ narrative and to help counter violent extremism and future atrocities. They can also serve as a deterrent and warning to other Canadians who might try to join ISIS as it mutates and moves to other countries in the world, such as Libya, Afghanistan, Egypt, the Philippines, Pakistan, or heaven forbid, in Mali where Canadian peacekeepers have recently been deployed. If Canada truly stands for multiculturalism, pluralism, the rule of law, global justice, human rights, and the liberal international order, then we must stand firm and take a principled stand to prosecute those who have fought under the ISIS banner. That includes our own citizens.
Topic:: Crime, Human Rights, Terrorism, Islamic State, Justice, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Canada, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4013. From NORAD to NOR[A]D: The Future Evolution of North American Defence Co-operation

Author:: Andrea Charron and James Fergusson
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The North American defence environment is in the process of a major transformation, occasioned by dramatic changes in the geostrategic/political landscape and the development of new generations of weapon systems. As a result, the requirements to deter, detect and defend North America from a variety of new threats are transforming. In this context, Canada and the United States, through the Permanent Joint Board of Defense (PJBD) established the Evolution of North American Defense (EvoNAD) study, and tasked its execution to the North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) command. EvoNAD considers a long time horizon and has been broken into subcomponents reflecting six domain priorities: air, maritime, cyber, aerospace, space and land. The overarching factor which binds the six components together is the recognition that the single-domain threat environment is evolving into a multi-domain one. In the past, the threat to North America resided largely on a single axis (north-south), within a dominant domain (air, combined with ballistic missiles), met by a bi-national structure. While this threat seemed to collapse with the end of the Cold War, NORAD continued and evolved to adapt to new threats as well as to continue to monitor the Cold War-styled air and aerospace threats. Subsequently, 9/11 created a new threat environment and forced NORAD to consider threats emanating from within North America as well as outside of it. In addition to a number of changes, including direct feeds from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and NAVCANADA, NORAD expanded into the maritime domain via a maritime warning mission. Roughly at the same time, NORAD’s attention also turned to the cyber-domain and its common threat to North America. The air threat has now returned with the resumption of long-range Russian flights across the Arctic, and down the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. This threat, however, is of a different character because of the development of a new generation of Russian long-range air-launched cruise missiles, as well as sea-launched cruise missiles, which have direct implications for NORAD’s capacity to deter, detect and defend, as well as for its current area of operations and mission suites (air/aerospace warning and control and maritime warning). Not only will these new long-range capabilities diffuse to other potential adversaries, generating a global threat environment, but also the first generation of hypersonic weapons has set the conditions for the merger of air and missile defence, and the air and outer space domains. Finally, the consequences of an attack against North America, alongside potential catastrophic natural disasters relative to the role of military forces in support of civil authorities, raises issues for both Canada and the U.S., and thus NORAD, regarding the most efficient and effective means to respond. The multi-domain/multi-dimensional North American threat environment should drive both Canada and the U.S. towards deeper defence co-operation, and the functional demands of this new threat environment could lead to NORAD’s ultimate transformation into an integrated, multi-domain and dimensional North American Defense Command solution. Of course, this outcome is not inevitable, and numerous barriers exist. Nonetheless, the same logic which led to NORAD’s creation in 1957 (with the agreement signed in 1958), remains valid. Driven by the common recognition that the defence of North America is indivisible, a North American Defense Command would be a natural evolution in Canada – American defence relations.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Maritime, Land, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

4014. Moving the Markers

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Clinton-Obama parameters haven’t worked – not for 25 years of peacemaking efforts since Oslo. They have lead to deadlock and much suffering. Let’s give the Trump team credit for taking a fresh look at what is safe, wise, fair and realistic in today’s Israeli-Palestinian reality.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

4015. US-Saudi Agreement to Increase Oil Production – Another Step towards Toppling the Iranian Regime

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The recent agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production is a significant blow to Iran. America seeks either regime change or a new nuclear deal on better terms.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Oil
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

4016. Is Khamenei Ruling out Dialogue with Trump?

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: On restoring relations between Tehran and Washington. If the protests in Iran expand, Trump will be able to exert greater pressure on Tehran.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4017. The American Interpretation of Russia’s Conduct: The Case of Syria

Author:: Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The US is failing to appreciate the significance of the leverage points that the Syrian arena provides for Russia. This leverage allows Russia to exact a heavy toll for the measures the US is demanding.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4018. As the Middle East Turns: Domestic Unrest, Changing Partnerships, and an Unreliable United States

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: In the Mideast of today, the US is largely irrelevant, when it is not disruptive, and is certainly not providing clear leadership. With the current disarray in DC, it does not look like this will change any time soon.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

4019. China-Israel Relations: Growing Cooperation Amidst Conflicting Interests

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: In the past decade, relations between Israel and China have become closer, following a decision in Jerusalem to diversify and expand Israel’s ties with emerging powers and countries that do not belong to the European Union and are less identified with the American coalition. The visit to Israel by China’s vice president is evidence of the warming of relations between the two countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4020. Don’t throw MBS under the bus

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Saudi Crown Prince isn’t a democrat or a strategic savior, but don’t give the evil leaders of Turkey and Iran a victory by weakening US-Saudi ties.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

4021. The Murder of Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi in Raqqa

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The killing of prominent Arab tribal leader Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi has serious implications for the US and Kurdish administered part of Syria, in which Raqqa is located. That administration of Syria has many enemies and remains fragile.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Fragile States, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4022. Not Quite that Close: Israel’s Policy towards China

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s strategy toward China doesn’t conflict with American interests; rather, it serves and reinforces them. Partnering with Beijing can help stabilize the Middle East. Partnering with Asian nations threatened by Beijing can help build a counterbalance to Chinese power.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Economic Cooperation, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4023. Still Pro-Israel?

Author:: David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Some hard-left Jews are out to sabotage the Birthright program. They are cutting away the limb – love for, and identification with, Israel – upon which all pro-Israel Jewish community activity must be based.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nationalism, Diaspora, Non State Actors, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

4024. Trump’s Withdrawal from Syria: Not Unexpected and a Victory for the “Astana Three”

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4025. The Withdrawal of the US from Syria in Broad Perspective

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel will need to increase the intensity of its operations against the Iranians. US withdrawal from the arena is a good opportunity for Israel to update its strategy in Syria.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4026. The Work Ahead: Machines, Skills, and U.S. Leadership in the Twenty-First Century

Author:: Edward Alden and Laura Taylor-Kale
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The challenge facing the United States today is to rebuild the links among work, opportunity, and economic security for all Americans in the face of accelerating technological change.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Employment, Innovation, Emerging Technology, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4027. The Mandate to Innovate

Author:: Christina Monaco
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: Delivering decision advantage to a policymaker or situational awareness to a warfighter is becoming a more competitive challenge. As geospatial and AAA technologies increase in capability and availability—both within the United States and allied GEOINT enterprise as well as for our adversaries—the complexity of that mission increases. Empowering rapid experimentation and innovation, adapting new business models (particularly those that have proven successful to the business world), and applying the breadth of the means availability to us to acquire new capabilities are ways for us to continuously replenish the nation's GEOINT advantage.
Topic:: Intelligence, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Innovation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4028. Examining Complex Forms of Conflict: Gray Zone and Hybrid Challenges

Author:: Frank G. Hoffman
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: The Joint Force, and the national security community as a whole, must be ready and able to respond to numerous challenges across the full spectrum of conflict including complex operations during peacetime and war. However, this presupposes a general acceptance of a well understood taxonomy describing the elements that constitute the “continuum of conflict.” The U.S. security community lacks this taxonomy, despite its engagement in a spate of diverse conflicts around the globe from the South China Sea, to Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, and beyond. Partially as a result of this conceptual challenge, we are falling behind in our readiness for the future. Understanding our future security challenges demands that we reflect and interpret the past, understand the present, and think rigorously about what lies over the horizon in order to adapt to the changing character of conflict. This requires keeping an open and informed mind about the breadth of the various modes of conflict that exist. The wars of the 21st century may take many forms. As conflict reflects a greater degree of convergence and complexity, so must our mental models and frameworks.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4029. Post–Conflict Stabilization: What Can We Learn from Syria?

Author:: Michael Ratney
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: Trying to draw lessons, even initial ones, from the U.S. experience in Syria is daunting, but the bottom line is that any conflict setting—and any effort to design a program of stabilization—brings a unique set of peculiarities that may not resemble conflicts in which we have been involved in the past. The Syria experience, where there is no central government with which the United States and others in the international community can partner with and empower, is an excellent example, and suggests a need for careful analysis of the specific circumstances of settings in which the United States may find itself operating in order to develop stabilization doctrine and tools that are suited not only to the last conflict, but to the next one.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4030. Economic and Financial Sanctions in U.S. National Security Strategy

Author:: Jill Jermano
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: The U.S. Government (USG) has increased the use of economic and financial sanctions against other states and non-state actors in the post–Cold War era, refining their design to improve precision. Achieving desired effects with sanctions, however, requires careful assessment of target vulnerabilities, available U.S. leverage, orchestration with other policy tools, and potential obstacles and risks.
Topic:: Hegemony, Sanctions, Conflict, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4031. Learning and Innovation: Jordan at the "Crossroads of Armageddon"

Author:: Beth Ellen Cole
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: A recurring feature of the past few decades is the presence of the nation’s three principal national security institutions (the 3Ds)—Department of State (DOS), U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and Department of Defense (DOD)—operating in complex environments abroad marked by conflict, crisis, and state fragility. This paradigm, dubbed the “new normal” by many, begs a few questions. What are we learning from these critical missions undertaken in pursuit of national security? Are we adjusting our strategies to maximize the prospects for prevention of conflict based on that learning? Is innovation occurring that enables us to work better together to address challenges in these environments? Of keen interest is what the 3D did to address the unique challenges in Jordan, and how. Understanding both the “what” and the “how” might reveal if we are learning and innovating.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Innovation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4032. The Machine Beneath: Implications of Artificial Intelligence in Strategic Decisionmaking

Author:: Matthew Price, Stephen Walker, and Will Wiley
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: Despite the risks posed by the adaptation of AI to military affairs, the United States must seek to be at the forefront of this technology. It is unthinkable that America will cede this new territory to our competitors, such as China and Russia, who are aggressively pursuing it. Even if the United States decided to opt out of this arms race, it would have little effect, as the technologies described in this paper are inherently dual use, and the private sector around the globe will pursue them with abandon. Ethicists, weapon engineers, and military leaders are already hard at work on the challenges associated with designing and deploying battlefield lethal autonomous weapons systems. With this article, the authors hope to begin a new conversation, highlighting and differentiating the risks posed by employing strategic AI in military decisionmaking, particularly as the pace of warfare accelerates.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4033. High North and High Stakes: The Svalbard Archipelago Could be the Epicenter of Rising Tension in the Arctic

Author:: Michael Zimmerman
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: 500 nautical miles north of the city of Tromsø, off of the northern cape of Norway, lies the Svalbard Archipelago; a collection of islands nearly one fourth the size of continental Norway with a unique history and an even more unique status under international law. Since its official discovery in the mid-1500s Svalbard has generally been an area of peace and cooperation due in large part to its location on the fringes of civilization. However, Svalbard’s tranquility has been punctuated by periods of competition and conflict when profitable resources are at stake. From whaling in the 1700s, coal in the late 1800s, and fishing in the present, profit from natural resources has been a consistent driver of instability in the area. Outside of resource-driven tension, the island chain spent most of its pre–20th century existence as a de facto “no man’s land” or global commons, ungoverned by any one nation.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Canada, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

4034. Sending in the Cavalry: The Growing Militarization of Counterterrorism in Southeast Asia

Author:: See Seng Tan
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: Philippines, which lasted from May to October 2017, constitutes a watershed moment in the evolution of the terrorist threat in Southeast Asia. Pro–Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militants threatened to turn Marawi into “the Mosul of Southeast Asia,” with their astounding ability to operate large groups capable of controlling territory and exposing the inadequacy of the region’s security services. Although member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) had pondered the question of possible participation by their armed forces in counterterrorism well before the Battle, it is undeniable that Marawi has become the catalyst behind the regional drive to militarize counterterrorism efforts in Southeast Asia. Cooperative frameworks furnished by ASEAN have since taken on added significance, especially the defense-oriented arrangements that bring together the defense establishments and armed forces of the ASEAN countries as well as those of external powers including China, India, Japan, and the United States. The growing militarization of counterterrorism efforts will neither be easy nor straightforward, given longstanding regional sensitivities and the potentially diversive ramifications that excessive securitization could have for democratic life within ASEAN countries.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, Philippines, North America, United States of America, and ASEAN

4035. Financing Green Growth

Author:: Gregor Semieniuk and Mariana Mazzucato
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper surveys the current state of financing green growth in the energy sector, based on the insight that there are different qualities of finance. In past transformational changes in other sectors, public monies played a key role across the innovation landscape. Public financing was central also in a number of past national energy transitions, as reviewed here for Iceland (from fossil to geothermal energy), Norway (from mainly non-electricity energy to hydroelectricity), France (from oil to nuclear) and the United States (from conventional to shale gas). In the current transition to low-carbon energy supplies, there is much public activity, most directed and concerted in China, but also reasons to doubt it is enough and applied in the right places to be able to finance the transition to a low carbon sector on time scales consistent with current climate change mitigation targets. A discussion of opportunities and challenges to a more central role for public financing concludes, drawing also on insights from the recent mission-oriented innovation literature.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Finance, Green Technology, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, France, North America, Iceland, and United States of America

4036. American Radical Economists in Mao’s China: From Hopes to Disillusionment

Author:: Isabella M. Weber and Gregor Semieniuk
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: American radical economists in the 1960s perceived China under Maoism as an important experiment in creating a new society, aspects of which they hoped could serve as a model for the developing world. But the knowledge of ‘actually existing Maoism’ was very limited due to the mutual isolation between China and the US. This paper analyses the First Friendship Delegation of American Radical Political Economists (FFDARPE) to the People’s Republic of China in 1972, consisting mainly of Union for Radical Political Economics (URPE) members, which was the first visit of a group of American economists to China since 1949. Based on interviews with trip participants as well as archival and published material, this paper studies what we can learn about the engagement with Maoism by American radical economists from their dialogues with Chinese hosts, from their on-the-ground observations, and their reflection upon return. We show how the visitors’ own ideas conflicted and intersected with their perception of the Maoist practice on gender relations; workers’ management and life in the communes. We also shed light on the diverging conceptions of the role for economic expertise between URPE and late Maoism. As the first in-depth study on the FFDARPE we provide rich empirical insights into an ice-breaking event in the larger process of normalization in the Sino- U.S relations, that ultimately led to the disillusionment of the Left with China.
Topic:: Radicalization, Capitalism, Economic Theory, Transition, and Socialism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4037. Where Fools Rush In: Why Armed Intervention Failed to Create Political Reconciliation in Somalia

Author:: Joseph P. Alessi
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Institution:: Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Abstract:: To be successful in today's world, leaders must understand the idea of culture. When the word culture is associated with leadership, many might first think of the culture that leadership creates within the framework of an organization. But for leaders who must operate in a tumultuous world connected by modern media, the word literally refers to the understanding of the people and places where they intend to inject themselves. Where Fools Rush In is a study of the failed U.N. and U.S. interventions to create stability and political reconciliation in Somalia from 1992 to 1995, due to the cultural misunderstanding of U.N. and U.S. leaders that created flawed mission objectives. World leaders must make difficult decisions when intervening in the political and social strife of nations when faced with the reality of human catastrophe and genocide. The questions will always remain as to if, how much, and what kind of intervention must occur. The choices are simple: standby, do nothing and watch, or intervene. What international leaders must understand is that, regardless of the boundaries and governmental systems implanted in former colonial and Cold War territories, the people developed their own systems of social organization and governance that predated European or U.S intrusion. When chaos erupts in these areas and the vestiges of these former systems collapse, the indigenous people more often than not return to their deeply entrenched cultural systems to create stability in these regions. Therefore, it is paramount for intervening parties to fully understand these cultural systems and implications if they hope to achieve any level of success. Ultimately, U.N. and U.S. leaders failed in Somalia because they failed to understand the people and their culture. Rather, they ignored it and viewed the situation from purely an ethnocentric western political perspective.
Topic:: International Law, United Nations, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, North America, Somalia, and United States of America

4038. Decolonizing Leadership Studies: Overcoming Obstacles Toward an Intercultural Dialogue Between Knowledges

Author:: Toni Jimenez-Luque
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Institution:: Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Abstract:: The academic discipline of leadership has developed in Western countries over the past decades with a US/Western Europe-centered perspective, implying that leadership theory is universal regardless of different cultural perspectives that go beyond the Western canon. In fact, current mainstream leadership theories are rather ethnocentric and local, and many of them still reflect a Eurocentric colonial mentality of dominance and power. Therefore, the purpose with this paper is to explore the effects of Modernity and colonialism on society’s relationships to identify the causes that hinder an effective intercultural dialogue in postcolonial contexts. This paper considers Decolonial Leadership as a new model that goes beyond Eurocentric approaches in the field and points to further research that is needed to fully develop a broader and more inclusive paradigm of leadership.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Leadership, Decolonization, Academia, and Intercultural Dialogue
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

4039. The Challenge of the South China Sea: Congressional Engagement and the U.S. Policy Response

Author:: James M. Scott
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Maritime territorial disputes in Asia are increasingly contentious, with competing claims and confrontations among numerous states of the region carrying significant implications for the relations among the countries of the region, between the U.S. and the region, and for the broader US-China relationship. This analysis examines the politics of the U.S. approach to the challenge, focusing on the role of Congress as a factor shaping the U.S. response. After establishing an analytical framework that directs attention to legislative-executive interactions and the domestic political/institutional context, it assesses the consequences of this context for U.S. policies and approaches to the problem. The analysis reveals the sequence and dynamics of congressional engagement, by which members moved from indirect and non-legislative approaches to direct and legislative approaches to narrow the boundaries and the shape the direction of US foreign policy. It concludes by addressing the implications for the U.S. approach and the relationships among the key parties.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, and Maritime
Political Geography:: China, Asia, United States of America, and South China Sea

4040. 9/11 as a Symbol of Terror: Responses and Actions

Author:: Bilal Mahmood and Abdul Majid
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The phrase of "the Global War on Terror" was adopted by the media. It was announced that Washington Administration would utilize all its resources to uproot terrorism and will punish all those who are responsible for the 9/11 tragedy. Both Islamic Jihadists and two Bush administrations have deployed spectacles of terror to promote their political agendas; that both deploy Manichean discourses of good and evil which themselves fit into dominant media codes of popular culture; and that both deploy fundamentalist and absolutist discourses.
Topic:: Terrorism, History, Taliban, Violent Extremism, and 9/11
Political Geography:: Pakistan, North America, Punjab, and United States of America

4041. Afghanistan Imbroglio: The Unintended Consequences of Foreign Interventions

Author:: Asifa Jahangir and Umbreen Javaid
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The war-torn Afghanistan has long suffered from the dynastical contests and fraught economic strategies of foreigners, which instigated constant internal strife and regional instability. The foreign interventions have made this land a sphere of influence and initiated the great game politics sporadically. This paper attempts to examine the historical geostrategic tussles in Afghanistan between international players on the one hand and regional actors on the other hand over control and manipulation of Afghanistan and its surrounding regions through the lens of conceptual framework of unintended consequences approach, which deals with irrational aspect of foreign policy of the states. This study makes interesting contribution to the existing literature of the [old] Great Game of the late 19th century between Czarist Russia and Great Britain or New Great Game by re-conceptualizing this idea into a new concept of the Grand Great Game or the 3G in place of explaining the unintended consequences of the historical events i.e. the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan of 1979, the post-Cold War era when the regional players Pakistan and India got involved in Afghanistan; and the US invasion of Afghanistan of 9/11 incident. The findings of the paper suggest that the unintended consequences of these historical events are bitter than the reality. The foreign interventions have paralyzed the Afghan society and made it more insecure by promoting clandestine terrorist activities and proxies. The interview technique helps to verify the 3G concept and present its unintended consequences. The critical content analysis of the primary and secondary data is of assistance to understand that the current 3G to be not only multidimensional competition, embodying multiple stakeholders but also incorporating complex self-defined rational as well as irrational foreign policy objectives and national interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, History, Power Politics, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Europe, South Asia, India, Punjab, and United States of America

4042. Pakistan-US Relations after 9/11: Points of Divergence

Author:: Muhammad Imran Rashid, Umbreen Javaid, and Muhammad Shamshad
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The research has explored the nature of US-Pakistan relationship particularly after the major event of 9/11 of 2001 in United States. It has highlighted the major points between Pakistan and the United States that have diverted them from each other in case of gaining their common goals in the region ranging from the containment of terrorism to the assurance of security and democracy. Through describing and analysing the facts and figures, mentioned in the published books, research articles, newspapers and other prevailing and relevant data and literature, the research has attempted to mention drone attacks by America in Pakistan‘s Tribal Areas, US-India strategic partnership, US covert military actions in Pakistan, US do more policy, nuclear proliferation, US‘ pressure tactics, US policy towards the Muslim world and America‘s antiIslamic propaganda as the points of divergence due to which Pakistan and United States are experiencing the lowest ebb of relations. The research is helpful for the students of foreign policy of Pakistan, current affairs and the American Studies. In addition to that, the reader will be able to know about the initiatives taken by the Pakistani and the US leadership that have caused deterioration to the cordial relationship of cold war, of late 1980s and mutual concerns to get rid of terrorism and militancy in the 21st century. The last section of this research paper prepared some of the recommendations which can be followed to restore the lost prestige of Pak – US relations based on the mutual understanding for achieving the common goals and to find a better position in the comity of nations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Counter-terrorism, and 9/11
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, North America, Punjab, and United States of America

4043. Public Policy Failure: ‘How Often?’ and ‘What is Failure, Anyway’?

Author:: Matt Andrews
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Observers claim that public policies fail ‘often’. This paper asks, ‘how often’? It is an important question, because public policies absorb resources to address major social issues. We should know if policies are proving bad social investments; routinely failing to solve focal problems at high costs. Unfortunately, it is not easy to assess this. Many public policy organizations—governments in particular—do not provide accessible views onto overall success or failure. The World Bank does, however, provide such view—and it supports policy interventions one finds in governments across the world. The paper thus examines World Bank failure rates. It finds that there are different answers to the ‘how often’ question, depending on responses to a second question, ‘what is failure anyway?’ In studying both questions, the paper identifies a bias in the World Bank—and probably all organizations adopting rational ‘plan and control’ policy processes—to measuring ‘project and product success’ rather than a broader view of success as ‘problems are solved with development impact’. This means that policy organizations like the Bank judge success based on whether planned products are delivered through an efficient process; not whether policies solve the problems that warranted intervention in the first place, or whether the policies promoted development outcomes. Is this how citizens would want their public policy organizations to conceptualize success?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, World Bank, and International Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

4044. Two-Stage Examinations: Can Examinations Be More Formative Experiences?

Author:: Dan Levy, Mae Klinger, and Theodore Svoronos
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Two-stage examinations consist of a first stage in which students work individually as they typically do in examinations (stage 1), followed by a second stage in which they work in groups to complete another examination (stage 2), which typically consists of a subset of the questions from the first examination. Data from two-stage midterm and final examinations are used to assess the extent to which individuals improve their performance when collaborating with other students. On average, the group (stage 2) score was about one standard deviation above the individual (stage 1) score. While this difference cannot be interpreted as the causal effect of two-stage examinations on learning, it suggests that individuals experienced substantial performance gains when working in groups in an examination. This average performance gain was comparable with the average difference between the top performer of the group in stage 1 and the group’s stage 1 average, and was equivalent to about two-thirds of the difference between the “super student” score (i.e. the sum of the maximum score for each question in stage 1) and the group’s stage 1 average. This last result suggests that group collaboration takes substantial (albeit partial) advantage of the aggregate knowledge and skills of the group’s individual members. Student feedback about their experience with two-stage examinations reveal that that these types of examinations are generally perceived to be more helpful for learning and are less stressful than traditional examinations. Finally, using data on group gender compositions, we investigate the potential role of gender dynamics on group efficiency.
Topic:: Education, Gender Issues, Collaborative Learning, and Collaborative Efficiency
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

4045. Iron Curtain over the Arab world: Evaluating Trump’s inaction on the murder of Jamal Khashoggi

Author:: Adham Sahloul
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: The murder of Saudi Arabian columnist Jamal Khashoggi on October 2nd in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul has been a clarion call for the Washington foreign policy community, one that is redefining the United States’ relations with the Saudi Kingdom and, by extension, US strategy in the Middle East. The Khashoggi affair will outlive President Donald Trump; the reputation of Saudi’s leadership is beyond repair, and with Global Magnitsky sanctions and the newly proposed bipartisan Saudi Arabia Accountability and Yemen Act, the US Congress appears ready to act where the executive has fallen short. The CIA has concluded that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) ordered Khashoggi’s murder. Trump, who has threatened “severe consequences” for whomever is found responsible, seemed over the past month to be looking for a way out of naming, shaming, and punishing MbS himself. In his statement on November 20th, Trump confirmed many observers’ worst fears about this president’s worst instincts, saying that US security, economic, and political interests transcend this incident. For a sitting US president to balk at the notion of holding an ally accountable and making even a symbolic effort to address such a gruesome crime with clear chains of responsibility constitutes a new low in US foreign policy
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Crime, Human Rights, Politics, Trump, Journalism, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

4046. Going nowhere alone: US sanctions on Iran and the afterlife of the JCPOA

Author:: Fridtjof Falk
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: On November 5th, 2018, the Trump administration re-imposed severe sanctions on Iran. These sanctions, which President Obama called the “toughest sanctions ever faced by the Iranian government,” were lifted by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Deal. The JCPOA was signed with a view to blocking Iran’s alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons, allowing international inspectors into Iran in return for sanctions relief. Withdrawing the United States (US) from the deal was a prominent promise of Donald Trump leading up to the presidential elections of 2016. In a May 2018 speech that described the deal as rooted in “fiction,” President Trump made good on his promise to leave the JCPOA and to move to unilaterally re-impose sanctions on Iran.
Topic:: International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Nuclear Power, and Economy
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4047. Militarization and Marginalization of American Diplomacy and Foreign Policy

Author:: Anthony C. E. Quainton
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: These days Generals are thick on the ground in Washington. Not only is the Secretary of Defense a general, but so too are the current and former National Security Advisors to the President and so is the White House Chief of Staff. Military discipline would seem to be the order of the day. Their culture of discipline may seem particularly ironic in one of the most disorganized administrations that we Americans have ever seen. It is nonetheless real.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Government, National Security, Military Affairs, and Trump
Political Geography:: North America, United States of America, Washington, and D.C.

4048. Relearning the Art of Nation State Diplomacy

Author:: Mike Anderson
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: American foreign policy is complex, and its application by diplomats and military practitioners is challenging in the diverse nature of the current environment. Military and diplomatic advisors during the post-9/11 period have concentrated on non-state threats, conditioning them to resort quickly to military options. In the face of emerging state competitors such as the Russian Federation and People’s Republic of China, a broader range of options beyond only military force is required. This generation of policy advisors must unlearn some of what they have learned over the course of the last fifteen years of conflict, as they shift from dealing with non-state actors to addressing the resurgence of near-peer statecraft based on national security threats. These threats have been long ignored during the war on terror. The diplomatic craft represented during the Cold War must be embraced by both the military and diplomatic personnel in practice, and emphasized by the uniformed armed forces and professional diplomatic advisors to policy and decision makers.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Affairs, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

4049. The Marshall Plan: Seventy Years Since the Start of a Great Diplomatic Effort

Author:: Thomas E. McNamara
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: We persistently promote each major development assistance plan or nation-building project as “a Marshall Plan for _(fill_in_name)_.” Once a plan is underway supporters and opponents play out their different agendas. Supporters of foreign assistance downplay “Marshall Plan” comparisons because expectations cannot be met. Opponents stress the comparison to highlight shortfalls. This happens because none of the nation-building plans ever measures up to the original, successful, real, Marshall Plan. And they never will. Not in Iraq, not in Afghanistan, not in Ukraine, not in Latin America, not in Africa. They won’t because the original Marshall Plan, contrary to popular myth, had nothing to do with development or nation building. It had everything to do with accelerating the reconstruction of already developed nations in Europe after two massively destructive wars.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, History, Foreign Aid, and World War II
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

4050. The Surprising Allure of Russian Soft Power

Author:: Nicolai N. Petro
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The six Russian national security documents issued since Putin first became president in 2000 display a remarkable conceptual consistency. A careful reading of these documents, the most authoritative statements of Russia’s worldview publicly available, challenges several common Western assumptions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Territorial Disputes, Ideology, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

4051. Groping in the Dark

Author:: Robert Cox
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The Europe-US relationship is based on two pillars: a belief in and a promotion of a rules-based international order; a shared set of common values. Both of these pieces of mortar are crumbling. But the partners are not yet in the divorce court. Meanwhile Europeans increasingly sense that their familiar and otherwise comfortable world has gone.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

4052. Global Migrant Remittances – A New Development Finance Paradigm?

Author:: Eric V. Guichard
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: For several decades now, global remittances – money that immigrants and citizens send to their families in countries from where they originate – have steadily grown in significance. The World Bank’s Migration and Remittances Unit recently pegged these global flows at $350 billion per year. Some estimates peg them as high as $500 billion annually – particularly when you include unofficial flow estimates and intra-continental transfers.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Migration, Foreign Aid, GDP, and Economy
Political Geography:: India, Philippines, North America, Mexico, United States of America, and European Union

4053. U.S. Embassy Tokyo Role in the Establishment of U.S.-Mongolia Relations

Author:: Alicia Campi
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The U.S. and Mongolia established diplomatic relations in 1987, after earlier failed attempts and many years of Cold War frostiness. In this account, Dr. Campi describes the negotiations leading up to relations with the Mongolian People’s Republic, at the time a communist country closely allied to the Soviet Union, and her own role in the process.
Topic:: Cold War, Diplomacy, History, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Japan, Mongolia, Asia, and United States of America

4054. USIA Films that failed in Africa

Author:: Bob Baker
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: While many films made by the US Information Agency (USIA) were very useful in Africa to tell about American society and policies, two were not. These two, one about President Kennedy and the other about American agriculture, had the opposite result from that intended. Local African culture distorted the films’ messages.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Film, Soft Power, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, North America, and United States of America

4055. Tell Me, Miss…

Author:: Elizabeth Krijgsman
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Full disclosure: the Foreign Service was not my first choice of career. I was in college back in the Dark Ages when unmarried women’s business cards said “Miss,” women were called “girls,” and pantyhose hadn’t yet been invented. When it dawned on me that I might not be getting married right after graduation, I began to think seriously about what kind of career I wanted. I decided that it would ideally involve a lot of free time. It would of course pay well. And I thought it would be very nice if it involved travel to exotic places. Being fond of indoor plumbing and not fond of physical labor, I immediately eliminated the Peace Corps as a possibility. During the summer after my junior year in college, I realized—I should become a Diplomatic Courier! Lots of down time on airplanes. Constant travel to those exotic locales. Staying in luxury hotels. Decent pay. And almost no actual work!
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Women, and Memoir
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4056. James and the Moscow Goons

Author:: Peter Bridges
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Putin’s recent expulsion of hundreds of our colleagues serving at our embassy and consulates in Russia reminded me of my own service in Moscow in the 1960s. You may call this ancient history, though it doesn’t seem so ancient to me. Stalin had been in his grave for a decade, and dear Nikita Khrushchev was now in charge. Under Stalin, two and a half million people had been prisoners in the deadly Gulag camps. Thousands of poor haggard people had been released, and some of the system’s more notable deceased victims were even “posthumously rehabilitated.” The Gulag had officially been closed down in 1960—but an estimated three-quarters of a million inhabitants of the USSR were still in the horrid camps. And nothing had been done to lessen the role of the KGB, at least so far as we could see.
Topic:: Cold War, Diplomacy, Economy, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Russia, Soviet Union, North America, and United States of America

4057. Getting to Know Jane Goodall

Author:: Ralph Bresler
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: My wife Barbara and I, and our children, were fortunate to work closely with Dr. Jane Goodall during our 1987-1991 tour in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In 1989 Goodall called on Secretary of State James Baker in order to enlist him in her new cause of trying to save chimpanzees in the wild. After discussing her many years of groundbreaking chimpanzee research in Gombe, Tanzania, Goodall explained that, in addition to destruction of habitat, a major problem was the bushmeat trade. She noted that ten adult chimps were killed in the wild protecting every infant captured, and only one out of ten infant chimps survived the journey to the marketplace after being taken from their mothers. Secretary Baker offered the Department’s assistance to her effort. As the largest chimpanzee population was in the DRC, Kinshasa was her first stop in this new endeavor.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Environment, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, United States of America, and Democratic Republic of Congo

4058. “We Found Ourselves Living in the Midst of a Battlefield”: The Experiences of the U.S. Consulate General in Warsaw on the Outbreak of World War II September 1939

Author:: David A. Langbart
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: As a result of the German invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939, the U.S. consulate general in Warsaw and its staff faced extraordinary circumstances. The Department of State included a brief overview of those experiences in a background report on wartime hazards faced by the Foreign Service during the period before the United States entered World War II. The extreme nature of what the consulate general’s staff faced are such, however, that it is worth presenting the full report of Consul General John K. Davis. Written from Oslo, Norway, after evacuation to that city, Davis’s despatch provides a detailed and evocative description of the events and occurrences that befell the staff in Warsaw. The ordeal was great. As the Consul General noted, “for all practical purposes we found ourselves living in the midst of a battlefield.”
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, World War II, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, North America, and United States of America

4059. Abraham Lincoln, Hillary Clinton, and Liu Xiaobo

Author:: Beatrice Camp
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Celebrating the bicentennial birthday of our 16th president seemed like a fairly safe event for our Shanghai consulate to undertake, considering that Abraham Lincoln was popular in China and former President Jiang Zemin was well known for quoting from the Gettysburg Address. And, of course, Lincoln provided us an opening to talk about “government of the people, by the people, for the people”. Sometime after we decided on the program, the State Department announced that Hillary Clinton would travel to Beijing on her first trip as Secretary of State to highlight the importance of the U.S.-China relationship for the new administration. Shanghai wasn’t on her itinerary and yet, somehow, our consulate preparations to hold a 200th birthday party for Abraham Lincoln in February 2009 almost threw a wrench into this important SecState visit.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Government, and Memoir
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4060. The Stupendous US Record Gets Suppressed

Author:: Amity Shlaes
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In recent years, the consensus regarding the American past has slipped leftward, and then leftward again. No longer is American history a story of opportunity, or of military or domestic triumph. America’s has become, rather, a story of wrongs, racial and social. Today, any historical figure who failed at any time to support abolition, or, worse, took the Confederate side in the Civil War, must be expunged from history. Wrongs must be righted, and equality of result enforced. The equality campaign spills over into a less obvious field, one that might otherwise provide a useful check upon the non-empirical claims of the humanities: economics. In a discipline that once showcased the power of markets, an axiom is taking hold: equal incomes lead to general prosperity, and point toward utopia. Teachers, book club presidents, and especially professors withhold any evidence to the contrary. Universities lead the shift, and the population follows. Today, millennials, those born between 1982 and 2000, outnumber baby boomers by the millions, and polls suggest that they support redistribution specifically, and government action generally, more than their predecessors. A 2014 Reason/Rupe poll found 48 percent of millennials agreeing that government should “do more” to solve problems, whereas 37 percent said that government was doing “too many things.” A full 58 percent of the youngest of millennials, those 18-24 when surveyed, held a “positive” view of socialism, in dramatic contrast with their parents: only 23 percent of those aged 55 to 64 viewed socialism positively.
Topic:: Government, Markets, History, Economy, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Free Trade, and Welfare
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4061. Threat Multiplier: The Growing Security Implications of Climate Change: A Conversation with Sherri Goodman

Author:: Sherri Goodman and Eli Stiefel
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Sherri Goodman is an experienced leader and senior executive, lawyer and director in the fields of national security, energy, science, oceans and environment. She is a Senior Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center and CNA (Center for Naval Analyses), and a Senior Advisor for International Security at the Center for Climate and Security. At CNA, Goodman also served as Senior Vice President and General Counsel and was the founder and Executive Director of the CNA Military Advisory Board, whose landmark reports include National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007), and National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change (2014), Advanced Energy and US National Security (2017), and The Role of Water Stress in Instability and Conflict (2017), among others. Previously, she served as the President and CEO of the Consortium for Ocean Leadership. From 1993-2001, Goodman served as the first Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security).
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

4062. In a World of War, Could it Be ‘From Russia with Love’: A Conversation with Igor Istomin

Author:: Igor Istomin and Akshobh Giridharadas
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Igor A. Istomin is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Applied Analysis of International Issues at MGIMO University. He holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees from MGIMO University as well as an undergraduate degree from Saint Petersburg State University. Istomin teaches undergraduate and graduate classes in methods of applied analysis of international affairs. He is an executive editor at International Trends, a leading Russian academic journal. He is also a visiting fellow at the School of International and Public Affairs at Jilin University in China. Istomin is the author of more than 50 publications on U.S. foreign policy, relations in the Euro-Atlantic space, and international security. His most recent book is The Logic of State Behavior in International Politics (2017). He has also prepared policy reports and papers for the Russian International Affairs Council, the Valdai Discussion Club, the Center for Strategic Research in Moscow, and the European Leadership Network.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

4063. The Future of Strategic Intelligence

Author:: Robert Hutchings
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: We begin with a puzzle: the need for strategic analysis is more important than ever in this period of great flux and uncertainty, but the disdain for analysis of any kind has never been greater than under the administration of President Donald J. Trump. The very premise that leaders need reasonably objective intelligence analysis to inform their policy decisions – a premise that has guided every U.S. administration since World War II – is under assault. If we are to rebuild our capacity for strategic thinking, we need to go back to the beginning. When President Harry Truman created the strategic intelligence function at the end of World War II, he understood that the United States had been thrust into a global role for which it was not prepared. The world was simply too complex, and American interests too extensive, to operate on the basis of impulse or ad hoc decision making. Moreover, when Truman issued National Intelligence Authority No. 5 on July 8, 1946, instructing the Director of Central Intelligence to “accomplish the evaluation and dissemination of strategic intelligence,” he deliberately set up this function outside of the White House, the Department of State, and the military, so that strategic analysis would be kept at a critical distance from policy making. Yet Truman, like every president since, was ambivalent about the role of strategic intelligence and the degree of autonomy it ought to have. The story actually begins earlier, when President Franklin Roosevelt, in a military order of June 13, 1942, formally established the Office of Strategic Services with William J. “Wild Bill” Donovan at its head, and directed it to “collect and analyze... strategic information” and to “plan and operate special services.” The cloak- and-dagger wartime operations of the OSS are the stuff of legend, as are the notable figures recruited to serve, including the poets Archibald MacLeish and Stephen Vincent Benét, the banker Paul Mellon, the psychologist Carl Jung, the philosopher Herbert Marcuse, the anthropologist Margaret Mead, and the movie director John Ford. Less well known is its role in strategic intelligence analysis through its Research and Analysis (R&A) Branch, led initially by James Phinney Baxter III, president of Williams College, and after 1943 by Harvard historian William Langer, identified in war correspondence as “OSS 117.”
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, History, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4064. Historical Trajectory of the U.S.-Russia Relationship: Perception and Misperception: A Conversation with Professor Tatiana Shakleina

Author:: Tatiana Shakleina and Ryan Rogers
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Professor Tatiana Shakleina sat down with the Fletcher Security Review in November 2017 in conjunction with the Conference on U.S.-Russia Relations between The Fletcher School and Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). In a detailed and engaging conversation that spanned over 25 years of history, Professor Shakleina traced the post-Cold War origins of the current tension between the United States and Russia. While personnel within the Trump Administration have moved on to new positions or left government altogether since the interview, Professor Shakleina’s rich historical overview of post-Cold War U.S.-Russia relations remains extremely relevant in understanding the recent trajectory and current state of the bilateral relationship.
Topic:: Security, Cold War, Government, History, Bilateral Relations, and Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

4065. Western Foreign Fighters: The Threat to Homeland and International Security by Phil Gursky

Author:: Houssem Ben Lazreg and Phil Gursky
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Islamic State (IS) has demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in attracting foreign fighters, particularly from Western countries. Between 2011 and 2015, Western foreign fighters coming from North America, Europe, and Australia traveled to Iraq and Syria in order to join IS and the Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Al-Nusra. As IS has been significantly weakened, authorities in many western countries are increasingly worried that returning fighters will come back to their home countries radicalized, battle hardened, and eager to commit terrorist attacks. This concern is clearly manifested in Phil Gursky’s book cover which features a striking image of a Belgian returnee from Syria, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, who has been named by security officials as one of the architects of the attacks in Paris in 2015. In Western Foreign Fighters: The Threat to Homeland and International Security, Phil Gursky, a former analyst at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, elaborates on the phenomenon of ‘Western Foreign Fighters.’ This book aims at addressing two fundamental issues: “why people leave their homeland to join terrorist groups?” and “do they pose a threat upon their prospective return?”[1] To answer those questions, Gurski relies not only on a detailed analysis of the excerpts and statements by the fighters recently engaged in violent extremism at home and overseas, but also on accounts that delineate historical parallels and differences with previous conflicts sharing similar dynamics. Gurski divides his analysis into eight substantive chapters, an appendix, a glossary and a suggested reading list, using accessible, non-academic prose. He conducts the majority of his historical analysis in chapter three. His discussion of western volunteers—mainly Canadians and Americans—and their involvement in previous conflicts such as the Spanish Civil War and the Boers Wars provides informative and engaging insights, mostly for a general readership.[2] It also sets the stage for shedding light on why Westerners join terrorist groups like IS, and what threat they pose to homeland/international security. Obviously, these issues will be of most interest to intelligence officers, policy makers, scholars, and practitioners...
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Homeland Security, and Book Review
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4066. Looking Inward to Improve National Security: A Conversation with Former Congressman Christopher Gibson

Author:: Christopher Gibson
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Chris Gibson is a former Republican Congressman from upstate New York, and is currently the Stanley Kaplan Distinguished Visiting Professor of American Foreign Policy at Williams College. Prior to his congressional service, Mr. Gibson had a 24-year career as an Army officer before retiring as a Colonel. His services included tours in the First Gulf War, the Balkans, multiple combat tours in Iraq and a humanitarian tour to Haiti after the 2010 earthquake. His new book Rally Point addresses the current divisions within U.S. politics and the risks we face if they continue to inhibit the U.S. government from fulfilling its necessary functions.
Topic:: Security, Government, National Security, and Interview
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4067. The Ghost: The Secret Life of CIA Spymaster James Jesus Angleton by Jefferson Morley

Author:: Jefferson Morley and Brian O'Keefe
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: In his new biography The Ghost: The Secret Life of CIA Spymaster James Jesus Angleton, veteran journalist Jefferson Morley probes an enigma others have chronicled but none satisfactorily explained. Angleton, “a founding father of U.S. mass-surveillance policies,” joined the Agency’s predecessor, the OSS, in its early years and reigned as chief of its Counterintelligence Staff for an extraordinary two decades until his abrupt retirement in 1974.[1] His personal mystique and complicated tenure have given rise to a small but formidable contingent of biographies, novels, and film characters. What Morley adds to the intrigue is a refusal to be seduced by the beguiling charm of his subject, preferring instead to deliberately scrutinize Angleton’s expansive power, ideological intransigence, and lasting influence. Morley’s timeline spans Angleton’s career, though he peppers his narrative with nods to formative experiences at Yale, post-CIA pursuits, and family affairs. The story unfolds chronologically through four tersely titled and equally distributed sections (Poetry, Power, Impunity, Legend), each of which is further demarcated under a dozen or more pithy subheadings (Mole, Oswald, Kim...). Readers might experience the rhythm as too serial for the genre, and while the chronological method is helpful in charting Angleton’s ascent, Morley rarely lingers long enough with a scene to breathe life into its cast. Save a few animated vignettes, the reader is less a participant in the sensory and internal worlds of Morley’s subjects than a recipient of his detective digging, sundry sources, and interpretive reflections...
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, History, Book Review, and Surveillance
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4068. U.S.-Russia Relations: Energy Security & Beyond: A Conversation with Dr. Celeste Wallander

Author:: Ishan Khokar and Celeste Wallander
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Celeste Wallander is President and CEO of the U.S.-Russia Foundation. She served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia/Eurasia on the National Security Council (2013-2017), as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia/Ukraine/Eurasia (2009 to July 2012), professor at American University (2009-2013), visiting professor at Georgetown University (2006-2008), Director for Russia/Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (2001-2006), Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (2000- 2001), and professor of Government at Harvard (1989-2000). She is the author of over 80 publications on European and Eurasian security issues, focused on Russian foreign and defense strategy. She received her Ph.D. (1990), M.Phil. (1986) and M.A. (1985) degrees from Yale University. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Atlantic Council of the United States, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Interview
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

4069. Human Trafficking and Climate Change: Understanding the Disastrous Relationship

Author:: Alice C. Hill
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Human trafficking is a horrendous crime: it degrades human security and undermines the rights of people around the globe. Although the exact number of victims worldwide remains elusive, the extent of human trafficking stands to increase in coming years for several reasons, including the accelerating rate of climate change. A warming world will almost certainly bring more disasters that result in greater displacement of people from their homes and livelihoods. This, in turn, puts them at greater risk of trafficking. Human trafficking is a highly lucrative crime, with few perpetrators successfully prosecuted and transnational criminal and terrorist groups repeatedly using it as a source of revenue. These factors, in combination with worsening climate change impacts will, in all likelihood, yield ever more human trafficking victims. At its core, human trafficking involves forcing another against his or her will to work, perform sex acts, or succumb to debt bondage. Despite its name, the crime does not necessarily involve movement: the key element is coercion. Over 170 nations have signaled their opposition to human trafficking by joining the United Nations Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children, and virtually all countries have registered official opposition to trafficking in humans. Despite these pronouncements, human trafficking occurs with staggering frequency. While precise estimates of the number of persons trafficked are difficult to obtain, the U.S. Department of State speculated in its 2017 Trafficking in Persons Report that there may be “tens of millions” of victims worldwide.[1] Other international organizations “estimate that about 25 million people are victims” of human trafficking in the world.[2] In all likelihood, those numbers will grow due in part to the increasing effects of climate change...
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Crime, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

4070. Refuge: Rethinking Refugee Policy in a Changing World by Paul Collier & Alexader Betts

Author:: Paul Collier, Alexander Betts, and Sabrineh Ardalan
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: With over 65 million people forcibly displaced around the world, policymakers, academics, and advocates alike are searching for creative approaches to addressing the challenges presented.[1] Refuge: Rethinking Refugee Policy in a Changing World reflects an effort by two preeminent scholars, Alexander Betts, Leopold W. Muller Professor of Forced Migration and International Affairs and Director of the Refugee Studies Centre at the University of Oxford, and Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Oxford University, to identify the main drivers of and responses to forced migration. Following the 2016 New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) engaged in a series of discus- sions with UN member states, experts, advocacy groups, refugees, and other stakeholders, including from the private sector and financial world, to develop the “zero draft” of the global compact on refugees.[2] Released in January 2018, the draft contains a “programme of action” with prescriptions for a comprehensive refugee response framework aimed at meeting the needs of refugee communities through access to education and work, among other services. The draft focuses on investment in local solutions to integrate refugees and to provide refugees with opportunities to engage productively with the communities that host them. In their book, Refuge, Betts and Collier present several ideas for rethinking assistance to refugees echoed in the current draft of the compact. Self-reliance and autonomy, for example, are key themes in both Refuge and the zero draft. They note, in particular, the need for investment in employment opportunities and training for refugees with the dual purpose of “restor[ing] normality” and “incubating post-conflict recovery.” The draft compact likewise underscores how essential skill development is to preparing refugees for long-term, durable solutions such as voluntary repatriation when circumstances allow for it...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, Refugees, and Book Review
Political Geography:: United Nations, North America, and United States of America

4071. Contemporary Questions on Eco-Terrorism: A Conversation with Dr. Michael Loadenthal

Author:: Michael Loadenthal and Fletcher Security Review Staff
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Dr. Michael Loadenthal, a Visiting Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology & Social Justice Studies at Miami University of Oxford, discussed with FSR his extensive work on eco-terrorism. His research looks to provide nuance to the way eco-terrorism has been studied and written about, and how it is understood by government entities. He uses this perspective to assess the threat, or lack of threat, eco-terrorism poses today.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Non State Actors, Social Movement, and Eco-terrorism
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

4072. Identity and Conflict, Permanent Deconfliction or Eventual Reset? A Conversation with U.S. Army Colonel Robert E. Hamilton

Author:: Robert Hamilton
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: U.S. Army Colonel Robert E. Hamilton is a Black Sea Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and is a professor in the Department of National Security and Strategy at the U.S. Army War College. He has served as a strategic war planner and country desk officer at U.S. Central Command, as the Chief of Regional Engage- ment for Combined Forces Command-Afghanistan, and as the Chief of the Office of Defense Cooperation at the U.S. Embassy in Georgia and as the Deputy Chief of the Security Assistance Office at the U.S. Embassy in Pakistan. Colonel Hamilton was a U.S. Army War College fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, where he authored several articles on the war between Russia and Georgia and the security situation in the former Soviet Union. Colonel Hamilton holds a PhD in International Relations from the University of Virginia. Colonel Robert Hamilton spoke with The Fletcher Security Review in early November 2017 at Fletcher’s Religion, Law and Diplomacy Conference. The following conversation is an excerpt from their extensive interview.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Syrian War, Identities, and Interview
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4073. Where Are We Now? Important U.S.-Russia Geo-Strategic Flashpoints: A Conversation with Dr. Evelyn N. Farkas

Author:: Evelyn Farkas and Ryan Rogers
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Dr. Evelyn N. Farkas is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a national security analyst for NBC/MSNBC. She served from 2012 to 2015 as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia/Ukraine/ Eurasia, responsible for policy toward Russia, the Black Sea, Balkans, and Caucasus regions and conventional arms control. From 2010 to 2012 she served as senior adviser to the supreme allied commander Europe and special adviser to the secretary of defense for the NATO Summit. Prior to that, she was a senior fellow at the American Security Project, and executive director of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism. From April 2001 to April 2008, she served as a professional staff member of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Asia Pacific, Western Hemisphere, Special Operations Command, peace and stability operations, combatting terrorism, counternarcotics, homeland defense, and export control policy. Dr. Farkas obtained her MA and PhD from The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. She is a member of the board of trustees of Franklin & Marshall College and Aspen Institute Socrates Seminar, and Harold Rosenthal Fellowship advisory boards. She has received several Department of Defense and foreign awards and an honorary doctorate from Franklin & Marshall College. In January 2018, Dr. Farkas discussed a range of issues concerning Russia and the post-Soviet space with the Fletcher Security Review. The conversation took place in the run-up to the March 2018 presidential elections in Moscow and before President Putin’s highly publicized Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, in which he unveiled a number of new nuclear weapon systems currently under development by the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4074. Decoding U.S.-India Relations: A Conversation with Ambassador Tim Roemer

Author:: Timothy J. Roemer and Divya Prabhakar
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Ambassador Tim Roemer has broad experience spanning international trade, national security, and education policy. Roemer served as U.S. Ambassador to India from 2009-11. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1991 – 2003 as a Democrat from Indiana’s 3rd congressional district. He is currently strategic counselor at APCO Worldwide, a global public affairs and strategic communications consultancy.
Topic:: International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

4075. Reshaping Dominant Narratives through Film

Author:: Isabel Roemer
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Three MAAS grads share how careers in documentary filmmaking have enabled them to give voice to untold stories and reshape dominant narratives.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Film, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and United States of America

4076. Artist Q&A

Author:: Vicki Valosik and Helen Zughaib
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Helen Zughaib, currently based in Washington D.C., is known for her colorful gouache works that emphasize hope and human dignity, even while depicting themes of mass displacement, political upheaval, and war. Born in Beirut but forced to evacuate during the 1975 civil war, Zughaib spent much of her life in Europe and other parts of the Middle East before coming to the United States to earn her BFA at Syracuse University’s College of Visual and Performing Arts. Her art has been exhibited at museums, galleries, embassies, and in private collections around the world, including at the White House, the Library of Congress, and the World Bank. Zughaib has served as a U.S. State Department Cultural Envoy to Europe and the Middle East and was recently awarded a grant from the D.C. Commission on the Arts and Humanities. In November, she gave a talk at CCAS on her visual documentation of the Arab Spring, after which she shared the following reflections on her work.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Arab Spring, and Memory
Political Geography:: Middle East, United States of America, North America, Washington, and D.C.

4077. Reading the Arabesque with Kamal Boullata

Author:: Vicki Valosik and Kamal Boullata
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: World renowned artist Kamal Boullata reflects on his work, his years in Washington, and the early days of CCAS.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Literature, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Palestine, United States of America, Washington, and D.C.

4078. A Place to Gather

Author:: Vicki Valosik, Isabel Roemer, and Nancy Howar
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: A profile on A. Joseph Howar, the CCAS benefactor behind one of Washington’s most iconic cultural and religious institutions. A. Joseph Howar, an immigrant from Palestine who became one of the most prominent Arab- Americans of the early 20th century, touched the lives of countless people during his 103+ years. A talented real-estate developer with an uncanny instinct for location, Mr. Howar was determined to give back to both his adopted country and his homeland. A proponent of education, he built a school and mosque in Palestine, and was the catalyst behind the creation of the Washington Islamic Center, which remains an important cultural and religious icon on Washington’s Embassy Row. Even closer to home, Howar’s legacy continues at Georgetown’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, where for more than 25 years, the Howar family has generously funded a scholarship in Joseph’s memory for students of the Master of Arts in Arab Studies program.
Topic:: Religion, History, Immigration, Culture, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

4079. Ancient Inspiration for a New Marketplace of Ideas

Author:: Azza Altiraifi
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Inspired by a seventh-century model, a new “souq” at CCAS brings together thinkers and scholars to discuss current regional events within their historical and global context. During the fall semester, the CCAS launched a new roundtable discussion series called “Souq Al-Fikr”, meaning “marketplace of ideas.” The title of the monthly series is a play on the name “Souq Okaz”, a market in what is current-day Saudi Arabia where Arab leaders from across the peninsula gathered during the sixth, seventh, and eighth centuries to discuss politics and culture, and—most famously—to host poetry competitions. Although many important historical developments can be traced to Souq Okaz, one of the most notable is the formalization of the rules of Arabic grammar and syntax.
Topic:: Trump and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, North America, and United States of America

4080. Saudi Arabia’s Artists of Change

Author:: Sean Foley
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: MAAS alum Sean Foley (‘00) discusses his forthcoming book, Changing Saudi Arabia: Art, Culture, and Society in the Kingdom.
Topic:: Civil Society, Gender Issues, Arts, Natural Resources, Culture, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

4081. The Revolutionary Seeds of Mass Media

Author:: Sania El-Husseini
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: The development and spread of mass media throughout the Middle East over the past two decades—starting with satellite television stations, which took national narratives out from under state control, and followed by social media, which gave voice to the masses—is widely considered a key factor leading to the eruption of the Arab revolutions.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Mass Media, Democracy, Internet, Arab Spring, Journalism, and Revolution
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, North America, Qatar, and United States of America

4082. MESA and the Muslim Ban

Author:: Beth Baron and Judith Tucker
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: The Middle East Studies Association (MESA) recognized early on that the “Muslim Ban”—so called for its banning of individuals from predominantly Muslim countries from entering the United States—posed specific threats to its mission and its commitments to academic freedom, intellectual exchange, and the fostering of scholarly research. As the current and past presidents of MESA, we take great pride in the fact that the association decided to take a clear and active stand against all iterations of this ban.
Topic:: Government, Border Control, Courts, Trump, Borders, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4083. Preserving a Genre under Duress

Author:: Brittni Foster
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: How a class assignment led to MAAS alum Dan Walsh’s lifelong passion for preserving Palestine’s visual heritage. When Dan Walsh (MAAS ’11) was serving as a Peace Corps volunteer in Marrakesh in the early 1970s, his language tutor encouraged him to practice his budding Arabic and Moroccan Darija skills by translating the posters that papered the buildings around town. Walsh, now the curator of the world’s largest collection of posters on Palestine, remembers how grateful he was for the break from verb conjugations but says he never could have imagined how that assignment would change the course of his career. He credits his hours spent walking the streets of Marrakech and Rabat reading posters—Arabic dictionary in hand—with not only improving his language skills, but also igniting what has become one of his life’s passions.
Topic:: Culture, Media, Peace Corps, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

4084. Q&A with Political Cartoonist Khalid Albaih

Author:: Vicki Valosik and Khalid Albaih
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Khalid Albaih (@khalidalbaih) is a Sudanese artist and political cartoonist born in Bucharest, Romania. Albaih is based in Doha, where he formerly served as Head of Public Art for Qatar Museums Authority. He currently lives and works in Denmark as the ICORN/PEN Artist in Residence for the city of Copenhagen. Albaih’s cartoons, published under the name “Khartoon!”—a play on the words “cartoon” and “Khartoum,” the capital of Sudan—have appeared widely in international publications including The New York Times, The Atlantic, PRI, NPR, and BBC. In addition, Albaih has published social and political commentaries in The Guardian and Al Jazeera, among other places. His work has been exhibited in numerous group and solo exhibitions around the world, from New Delhi and Tokyo, to London, Boston, and Dearborn, to name only a few. Khalid is also the founder of @DohaFashionFridays and cofounder of Khartoum Art & Design Center.
Topic:: Politics, Arts, Internet, Social Media, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

4085. MAAS in and on the Media

Author:: Nadine Cheaib, Timothy Kaldas, Bassam Haddad, Laila Shereen Sakr, and Samia Errazzouki
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Graduates of the MAAS program have distinguished themselves in many professional fields, including the media. We hear below from alums who work in the media—as journalists and producers—and on the media—as expert commentators, knowledge archivists, and scholars.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Social Movement, Media, Social Media, Protests, Journalism, Revolution, and Interview
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, North America, Morocco, and United States of America

4086. Love, Death, and a Day’s Work

Author:: Majd Al Wahaidi
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Majd Al Wahaidi, a first-year MAAS student, was born in Gaza to a Bedouin family from Beersheva. Before joining MAAS, Majd worked in Gaza as a reporter for the New York Times. She shares some reflections on her life as a journalist.
Topic:: Media, Conflict, Journalism, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

4087. Q&A with Journalist Ada Mullol (MAAS ’18)

Author:: Ada Mullol and Vicki Valosik
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Ada Mullol was well on her way to a career in journalism when she decided to pursue her Masters in Arab Studies at Georgetown. She first honed her reporting skills as an undergraduate at Autonomous University in Barcelona, where she studied journalism, wrote for the university magazine, and received an investigative reporting award for her work on the Syrian regime’s suppression and surveillance of Syrians in Spain. Mullol went on to pursue training at the London School of Journalism and a master’s degree in International Relations from the Barcelona Institute of International Studies, and to publish articles in national and international magazines. She had long been interested in the Arab world, though, and knew that developing regional expertise and improving her Arabic skills would enable her to better tell the stories she cared about. In 2016, she joined MAAS, where she is writing her thesis on the intersection of media, public opinion, and foreign policy. This March, Mullol participated in a competitive journalism fellowship program called “The World in 2030,” which was sponsored by the International Center for Journalists and the United Nations Foundation and included three days of intensive career training.
Topic:: Media, Research, Journalism, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Middle East, Spain, Syria, and United States of America

4088. Trading the Global Future Part III: Bad Consequences

Author:: Dan Steinbock
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s ‘America First’ policies come at a critical time in the global economy. These bad policies will have adverse consequences in international trade. In the absence of countervailing forces, they could unsettle the post-2008 global recovery and undermine postwar globalization.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Tariffs
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4089. The Rise of Petroyuan

Author:: Dan Steinbock
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: In the late 20th century, U.S. petrodollar dominated the world economy. In the 21st century, we are witnessing the rise of the Chinese petroyuan. This ascent could speed up the erosion of the dollar’s dominance after a century of power. The U.S. dollar still accounts for 39% of international payments – more than the euro (33%), English pound (7%), Japanese yen (3%) and Chinese yuan (28%) – but times are changing.
Topic:: Oil, History, Natural Resources, Economy, and Currency
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4090. Catherine Novelli on Responsible Energy Policy

Author:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: On October 29, 2018, the SFS Centennial Fellowship hosted a Townhall with SFS Centennial Fellow Catherine Novelli in which she answered questions regarding the current relationship between the economy and environmental policy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, and Interview
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4091. After Defeating ISIS: A Renewed Opportunity to Prioritize Accountability in Iraq

Author:: Lana Baydas
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in July 2017. In December 2017, he announced that a joint effort between the Iraqi government and Kurdish forces, supported by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes, had liberated all Iraqi territory from ISIS. The 2017 operations in Mosul, Tel Afar, and Hawija marked the formal end of a bleak era for swaths of the Iraqi populace after being subjected to the horrors of ISIS rule.
Topic:: Crime, Human Rights, Islamic State, Conflict, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

4092. Australia’s Gun Laws Can’t Work in America – For Now

Author:: Philip Alpers
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Thirteen mass shootings in 18 years, 112 victims shot dead. While this may seem to describe contemporary America, it actually describes a late 20th-century period in Australia. The country’s final slaughter occurred in Tasmania in 1996 – the Port Arthur massacre. A lone, “pathetic social misfit” – as described by the judge – killed 35 people. The first 29 bullets from this young man’s AR-15 rifle ended the lives of 20 innocents in just 90 seconds.
Topic:: Government, Weapons, Legislation, Public Health, and Mass Shootings
Political Geography:: Australia, Australia/Pacific, North America, and United States of America

4093. IFPA National Security Update 6: The Trump Administration's Space Force

Author:: Jack Kelly
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
Abstract:: This IFPA National This IFPA National Security Update examines the Trump Administration’s proposal to create a new U.S. Space Force, its rationale, alternative approaches, and Congressional perspectives. In early 2017, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis initiated an online series entitled National Security Update. Its purpose is to examine key foreign policy/defense issues and to set forth policy options. These updates are made available to the broad policy community within and outside government, including key policy makers in Washington, D.C.; members of Congress and their staffs; academic specialists; and other members of the private-sector security community. Future National Security Updates will address a range of topics in an effort to provide timely analyses and policy options.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Military Affairs, Trump, Space, and Space Force
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

4094. National Security Update 5: The Trump 2018 Nuclear Posture Review

Author:: Jack Kelly
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
Abstract:: This IFPA National Security Update examines the Trump Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR).i This NPR addresses requirements for a U.S nuclear-force structure more attuned to 21st-century requirements in a world of additional nuclear states as well as other actors in possession of such weapons. The NPR focuses on the crucially important nuclear component of U.S national security strategy and capabilities and should be read in the broader context of the recently released National Security Strategyii and National Defense Strategyiii documents. In early 2017, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis initiated an online series entitled National Security Update. Its purpose is to examine key foreign policy/defense issues and to set forth policy options. These updates are made available to the broad policy community within and outside government, including key policy makers in Washington, D.C.; members of Congress and their staffs; academic specialists; and other members of the private-sector security community. Future National Security Updates will address a range of topics in an effort to provide timely analyses and policy options.
Topic:: National Security, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, Weapons, and Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4095. National Security Update 3: The 2018 NDAA, the Ballistic Missile Defense Review, and the New EMP Commission

Author:: Jack Kelly
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
Abstract:: This IFPA National Security Update provides information on missile defense issues related to the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and the soon-to-be-released Ballistic Missile Defense Review (BMDR). It also provides an update on several developments regarding electromagnetic pulse (EMP), including Congress’ decision to create a new EMP Commission. In early 2017, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis initiated an online series entitled National Security Update. Its purpose is to examine key foreign policy/defense issues and to set forth policy options. These updates are made available to the broad policy community within and outside government, including key policy makers in Washington, D.C.; members of Congress and their staffs; academic specialists; and other members of the private-sector security community. Future National Security Updates will address a range of topics in an effort to provide timely analyses and policy options.
Topic:: National Security, Weapons, Space, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

4096. National Security Update 4: The Implications of China’s Actions in the South China Sea and U.S. Options

Author:: Jack Kelly
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
Abstract:: This IFPA National Security Update addresses the potential consequences of China’s strategy to control the South China Sea and possible U.S. and allied responses. In early 2017, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis initiated an online series entitled National Security Update. Its purpose is to examine key foreign policy/defense issues and to set forth policy options. These updates are made available to the broad policy community within and outside government, including key policy makers in Washington, D.C.; members of Congress and their staffs; academic specialists; and other members of the private-sector security community. Future National Security Updates will address a range of topics in an effort to provide timely analyses and policy options.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Territorial Disputes, Grand Strategy, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, South China, and United States of America

4097. Macron, Diplomat: A New French Foreign Policy?

Author:: Thomas Gomart and Marc Hecker
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: How can we define Emmanuel Macron’s foreign policy since he took office? After Nicolas Sarkozy’s brazen style of “gutsy diplomacy” and François Hollande’s “normal diplomacy”, the eighth president of the Fifth Republic seems to have opted for an agile classicism. In substance, he makes no claim to any radical break with the past, but sees his approach as being in line with historical tradition. In relation to his predecessors, he has adjusted the balance between alliances, values, and interests in favor of the latter, while giving his policies an unambiguous European orientation. Formally, his approach is characterized by recourse to symbolism, strict control of communications, and an agile personal style. A term used within the business world to encourage organizations and individuals to adapt and innovate, “agility” also connotes a will to utilize and master new technologies. [...] Comprising 14 brief analyses, this collective study contributes to the initiative launched by Ifri in 2016 to analyze French foreign policy, and follows on directly from the earlier study published on the eve of the presidential election. It aims to give an update on the action Emmanuel Macron has taken on the principal international issues since his arrival in office. It should therefore be read not as an overall assessment, which would be impossible at this early stage of the presidential term, but more as an impressionist tableau giving a sense of an overall movement containing many different hues. Emmanuel Macron has four years left to perfect it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Trade Policy, and Emmanuel Macron
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Middle East, Asia, France, United States of America, and European Union

4098. America Is More Than Trump. Europe Should Defend the Iran Deal without Burning Bridges to the US

Author:: Thomas Gomart, Robin Niblett, Daniela Schwarzer, and Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will severely degrade regional and global security. His decision has increased the risk of war and a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and beyond. He has undermined attempts to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons through multilateral diplomacy, as unilateral withdrawal equals non-compliance with a legally-binding UN Security Council resolution. This is a rejection of the UN as arbiter of international peace and security, as well as of international law as a lynchpin of international relations. The steps that Europeans now take will have serious consequences for their alliance with the US, for security in the Middle East, as well as for their relations vis-à-vis China, Russia and the wider world.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4099. The Trump-led Trade War with China: Energy Dominance Self-destructed?

Author:: Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe and Jean-François Boittin
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Under particular US legal rationale, such as calling foreign imports a “national security threat”, President Donald Trump has started imposing tariffs and/or quotas and has launched national security investigations on a growing number of imported goods from US allies and others alike.In March and June 2018, the US imposed tariffs or quotas on steel and aluminium on all trading partners, but Australia. In July and August 2018, the US began imposing tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese industrial goods on the ground of unfair trade practices. As China has retaliated with tit-for-tat measures, President Trump has imposed tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods from 24 September 2018 onwards, and in an unprecedented escalation of his trade war with China, he has also threatened to impose tariffs on an additional $267 billion in Chinese goods. If eventually carried out, Trump’s latest threat could result in tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the US. China has retaliated and imposed tariffs on $60 billion in US goods, including a 10% duty on liquefied natural gas (LNG). For the time being, trade tensions have had a limited impact on the energy market. But the new round of US tariffs and retaliation measures by China suggest that this is going to change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Gas, Renewable Energy, and Coal
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4100. The US Oil Embargo on Iran: A New Oil Shock?

Author:: Olivier Appert
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The 14 July 2015 Vienna agreement on Iran’s nuclear activities (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPoA) was a game changer on the geopolitics in the Middle East and for the oil market. The oil sanctions were lifted and Iran increased significantly its production and exports. On 8 May 2018, President Trump announced that the United Stated (US) would withdraw from the agreement. Financial sanctions were reintroduced. From 5 November 2018 onwards, further sanctions will be re-imposed more specifically on petroleum related transactions, including the purchase of petroleum, petroleum products and petrochemical products. What could be the impact of this new embargo? Is there a risk of a new oil supply and price shock?
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Global Markets
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS